印度太阳能革命的宏伟承诺与里程碑
2014年,印度承诺在2022年前安装100吉瓦(Gigawatts, GW: 电力容量单位,1吉瓦等于10亿瓦特)的太阳能发电量。
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In 2014, India made a commitment to install 100 gigawatts of solar power by 2022.
在做出这一承诺时,印度已安装的太阳能发电容量仅为3吉瓦,这意味着它基本上承诺每18个月将其太阳能容量翻一番。
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At the time that it made this commitment, it had an installed capacity of three gigawatts of solar power, so it was basically committing to doubling its solar capacity every 18 months.
这一承诺的巨大胆量让世界看法不一。
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The audacity of this commitment left the world divided.
作为世界第三大能源消费国和第二大煤炭消费国,印度正在押注太阳能。
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The world's third-largest energy consumer and second-largest coal consumer was betting on solar.
虽然许多人认为这个目标不切实际且过于雄心勃勃,但也有像我这样的人认为这非常令人兴奋,并可能是一生难得的机会。
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And while many thought that this goal was unrealistic and overly ambitious, others, like me, thought it was all very exciting and potentially the opportunity of a lifetime.
事实证明,我是对的。
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As it turns out, I was right.
印度在2025年2月达到了这一里程碑,成为世界上首批实现这一目标的国家之一,同时解锁了900亿美元的投资,并创造了30万个新的太阳能就业岗位。
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And India reached this milestone in February 2025, becoming one of the first few countries in the world to do so, and simultaneously unlocking 90 billion dollars in investment and creating 300,000 new solar jobs.
经济驱动与全球气候领导力
对印度而言,太阳能革命已成为一份源源不断的礼物。
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For India, the solar revolution has become something of a gift that keeps on giving.
它将印度推向了全球气候领导者的地位,同时提高了国内电力供应,从而结束了当地社区的限电(Blackouts: 区域性大范围停电)和降压供电(Brownouts: 电压降低导致电力不足)。
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It has catapulted India into a global climate leader, while boosting power supply in the country to end blackouts and brownouts for local communities.
这就是为什么印度致力于继续前进。
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This is why it is committed to keep going.
印度目前正在努力实现到2030年达到500吉瓦清洁能源的目标,这意味着到2030年,印度使用的每两个电子中,无论是家庭、工业还是交通领域,都将来自清洁能源。
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It is now working on a goal of 500 gigawatts of clean power by 2030, which basically means that in 2030, every second electron used in India, be it in a household, in industry or in transport, would come from a clean power source.
实现这场太阳能革命一直是一个希望的灯塔,不仅因为其宏伟的规模,更因为其背后的动机。
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To meet this solar revolution has been a beacon of hope, not just for the scale of the ambition, but for the motivation behind it.
印度押注太阳能并非出于意识形态原因。
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India did not bet on solar for ideological reasons.
它押注太阳能是出于经济原因。
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It bet on solar for economic ones.
印度很早就看到了世界上大多数国家今天才清楚认识到的事实:向可再生能源转型是符合经济效益的。
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It was early to see what most of the world can see clearly today. That the transition to renewable energy is good economics.
这是我在过去15年中与许多国家合作所获得的主要经验。
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This has been my primary takeaway from the work that I've done with a range of countries over the last 15 years.
我大部分时间都在试图回答一个问题,这个问题可能在座的许多人现在也在思考:这些承诺固然很好,但我们如何为此买单?
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I've spent much of that time trying to answer a question that many of you may be thinking about right now, which is: The commitments are all well and good, but how are we going to pay for it?
尤其是在发展中国家,融资成本仍然很高,单个太阳能电子成本的70%可能来自资本成本。
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Especially in developing countries where the cost of finance continues to be high, where as much as 70 percent of the cost of a single solar electron could be from the cost of capital.
毫不奇怪,答案在于创新。
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And unsurprisingly, the answer is through innovation.
虽然技术创新迅速降低了太阳能的成本,使其成为世界上每个市场中最便宜的电力来源,但仅仅依靠技术创新是无法完成任务的。
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And while technology innovation has rapidly brought down the price of solar energy, making it the cheapest source of electricity in every single market in the world, technology innovation alone is not getting it done.
创新之路:商业模式与市场设计
印度的太阳能故事既是关于技术的故事,也是关于商业模式和市场设计的故事。
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India's solar story is as much a story about business models and market design as it is about technology.
例如,当印度首次做出这一承诺时,私营部门积极响应。
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For instance, when India first made this commitment, the private sector responded with eagerness.
开发商和制造商欣然加入印度的太阳能盛宴,但资金仍然难以获得。
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Developers and manufacturers came readily to India's solar party, but capital remained elusive.
印度希望部署的大部分电力将不得不由其电力公司购买。
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Much of this power that India wanted to deploy would have to be bought by its electricity utilities.
而这些电力公司长期以来财务状况一直很差。
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And these electricity utilities have chronically been in very bad financial health.
因此,将大量可变的太阳能(当时价格仍相对较高)添加到它们的组合中,并不会让它们的日子好过。
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So adding large shares of variable solar, which at the time was still a bit more expensive, into their mix, was not going to make their life any easier.
于是,他们延迟向太阳能开发商付款,导致许多开发商破产,并吓跑了投资者。
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And so they delayed payments to solar developers, putting many of them out of business and spooking investors.
对于一个试图筹集1000亿美元太阳能投资的国家来说,这并不是一个好兆头。
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This was not a great look for a country that was trying to raise 100 billion dollars of solar investment.
但政府进行了实验。
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But the government experimented.
它与全国各地的邦政府合作,让他们要求其电力公司购买太阳能。
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It worked with state governments around the country to get them to demand solar power from their electricity utilities.
它还与其他大型消费者(如铁路)合作,让他们作为新太阳能园区开发的锚定客户(Anchor Customers: 早期或主要客户,为项目提供稳定需求)。
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It worked with other large consumers, like the railways, to get them to act as anchor customers for the development of new solar parks.
最后,它与发展伙伴合作,确保能源基础设施得到加固,以便将更多的太阳能整合到电网中。
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And finally, it worked with development partners to make sure that the energy infrastructure was fortified so that more solar energy could be integrated into the grid.
这并没有解决印度电力公司的所有问题,但它确实确保了这些公司按时支付太阳能账单。
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This did not solve all of the problems of India's electricity utilities, but it did make sure that these utilities paid their solar bills on time.
这足以吸引资金也加入印度的太阳能盛宴。
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And that was enough to get capital to also come to India's solar party.
因此,这场激动人心的革命实际上是建立在一些相当“无聊”的基础之上的。
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So this very exciting revolution was really built on the back of some quite boring things.
例如计划、政策和商业模式。
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Things like plans and policies and business models.
从雄心到行动:规划、创新与本地化
但这并非印度独有。
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But this is not unique to India.
世界上许多国家利用这些“无聊”的工具实现大规模太阳能收益的例子,让我相信从雄心到行动的道路可以归结为三个不同的层面。
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A lot of examples from around the world of countries using some of these same boring tools to unlock large solar gains has given me this belief that the road from ambition to action can be distilled down into three distinct levels.
对我来说,这些是规划、创新和本地化。
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To me, these are planning, innovation and localization.
计划是真正让承诺变为现实的关键。
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Plans are really what make commitments real.
一个很好的例子是我们在**“人人享有可持续能源”**(Sustainable Energy For All: 一个致力于实现全球能源可持续发展目标的国际组织)与加纳政府合作所做的工作。
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A really good example of this is the work that we at Sustainable Energy For All have done with the government of Ghana.
加纳已经有到2070年实现净零排放承诺(Net-zero commitment: 温室气体排放量与清除量相抵,实现净零)的目标。
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Ghana already had a net-zero commitment to get to net zero by 2070.
但正是在制定这个计划的过程中,他们能够审视证据、权衡利弊,不仅制定了操作指南,而且实际规划了现在到2060年实现净零排放。
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But it was in the making of this plan that they were able to look at the evidence, as well as look at the trade offs and not just develop a how-to guide, but actually plan to get to this net zero now by 2060.
但计划必须付诸实施。
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But plans have to be put into motion.
这就是创新发挥作用的地方。
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And this is where innovation comes in.
发展中国家是创新的温床。
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And developing countries are hotbeds for innovation.
例如,在撒哈拉以南非洲(sub-Saharan Africa: 非洲大陆撒哈拉沙漠以南的地区),小型太阳能解决方案的推广不仅受到其财务可行性的限制,还受到质量问题的困扰。
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For instance, in sub-Saharan Africa, where the scaling of small solar solutions is curtailed not just by their financial viability, but also by quality concerns,
一种创新的成果导向型融资机制(Results-based financing mechanism: 根据项目成果而非投入进行支付的融资方式)通过将付款部分安排在项目开始时,部分安排在质量检查完成后,从而解决了这两个风险。
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an innovative results-based financing mechanism that structures the payment partly at the start of a project and partly at the end of a project, once quality checks have been made, addresses both these risks.
其中一个设施利用了1350万美元,在五个国家解锁了55000个新的连接。
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One such facility leveraged 13.5 million dollars to unlock 55,000 new connections across five countries.
最后,能源转型是一个创造价值和繁荣的故事。
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And finally, the energy transition is a story about creating value and prosperity.
这就是本地化变得非常重要的地方。
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And this is where localization becomes really important.
例如,在肯尼亚,一个可再生能源强国,其90%的电力已经来自清洁能源,这使其有望在2030年实现100%清洁能源的目标。
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For example, here in Kenya, a renewable energy powerhouse, where 90 percent of its power already comes from clean energy sources, putting it well on its way to reach its goal of 100 percent clean power by 2030.
但在这个过程中,肯尼亚仅在一年内就进口了价值5000万美元的太阳能电池板。
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But in this pursuit, Kenya imported 50 million dollars' worth of solar panels in a single year alone.
这是它向国外输送的资金,但政府现在不再允许这种情况发生。
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This is money it sent out of the country, but the government is having none of it anymore.
它现在正在开发特殊的制造区,这不仅能将这笔钱留在国内,还能为当地肯尼亚人创造就业机会。
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It is now developing special manufacturing zones that will not just keep this money in the country, but also create jobs for local Kenyans.
发展中国家的能源转型浪潮
这些并非孤立的例子。
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These are not isolated examples.
这些证据表明,能源转型已经开始。
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These are evidence that the energy transition is already underway.
能源转型是不可逆转的,并且正由发展中国家推动。
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That the energy transition is irreversible, and that it's being driven by developing countries.
世界人口的84%生活在发展中国家。
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Eighty-four percent of the world's population lives in a developing country.
这意味着世界上每五个人中就有四个人生活在发展中国家。
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That is four out of every five people in this world live in a developing country.
这些国家正在发展中。
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These are countries in motion.
它们需要更多能源来满足未满足的需求,为经济提供动力,并为年轻人创造就业机会。
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They need more energy to meet unmet demand, to power their economies and to create jobs for their youth.
它们为满足这一需求所做出的选择,以及它们决定使用的燃料,将决定未来排放的状况。
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The choices that they make to meet this demand, the fuels that they decide to use, will determine what the emissions of the future look like.
但它们已经选择了可再生能源。
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But they're already choosing renewable energy.
它们选择可再生能源是因为可再生能源具有良好的经济效益。
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And they're choosing renewables because renewables is good economics.
它们现在知道,可再生能源为它们提供了增长、发展和繁荣的机会。
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And they now know that it offers them opportunities for growth, development and prosperity.
现在轮到我们所有人,利用看似“无聊”的规划、市场设计和能力建设工具,大规模地赋能这些国家,以保持这一势头。
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It is now up to all of us to enable these countries at scale, using the seemingly boring tools of planning, of market design and of capacity building to keep this momentum up.
因为时机已到,我们不能停下。
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Because the time is right and we can't stop now.
谢谢大家。
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Thank you.