施罗德CEO彼得·哈里森:资产管理行业200年变迁与未来展望 Norges Bank Investment Management 2024-10-30

施罗德CEO彼得·哈里森谈资产管理行业的变迁与未来

大家好,今天我们非常荣幸地邀请到彼得·哈里森(Peter Harrison)来到节目中。

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hi everyone today we have the great pleasure of having Peter Harrison on the show.

彼得是施罗德(Schroders: 欧洲最大的资产管理公司之一)的首席执行官,令人惊叹的是,施罗德已经经营了近200年。

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Peter is the CEO of schroers one of the biggest asset managers in Europe and amazingly shos has been in business for nearly or for roughly 200 years.

彼得,很高兴你能来这里。

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Peter great to have you here thank you great question.

彼得·哈里森:非常荣幸。

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Peter: it's also quite fun because schroers is one of the longest standing Partners we have in the fund in the Norwegian someone wealth fund um we have relationships going back to you know roughly 25 years yeah yeah nice is a great privilege to run money for you.

在一百万家公司中,只有45家能存活100年,而你们已经经营了200年,秘诀是什么?

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only 45 out of 1 million companies exist for 100 years and you've been doing it for 200 years what's the what's the trick.

彼得·哈里森:我认为关键在于坚定的所有权。我们有一个家族支持,他们对公司的发展方向持有20年的长期看法。

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Peter: so I think the the key is committed ownership we've got a family backing who takes a 20year view of where we need to go and and and because of that the business has changed and evolved and the we've been in lots of different businesses in the finance sector throughout that time but we've continued to change and I think that's only possible if you've got a commit long-term ownership structure which allows that change.

正因为如此,公司得以不断变化和发展,我们在这段时间里涉足了金融领域的许多不同业务,但我们始终在不断改变。我认为这只有在拥有承诺的长期所有权结构下才有可能实现,这种结构允许这种变化发生。

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and and because of that the business has changed and evolved and the we've been in lots of different businesses in the finance sector throughout that time but we've continued to change and I think that's only possible if you've got a commit long-term ownership structure which allows that change.

投资管理行业的巨大变革

如果我们回顾过去十年,您在投资管理领域看到了哪些最大的变化?

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if we do the last 10 years what are the biggest changes you've seen in Investment Management.

彼得·哈里森:巨大的变化。

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Peter: huge yeah.

被动管理(Passive Management: 指投资于指数基金等,不主动选择股票以跑赢市场)的巨大增长,向私募市场(Privates: 包括私募股权和私募债等非公开市场投资)的巨大增长,以及费用的崩溃。

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Peter: so massive growth of passive management huge growth towards privates um a collapse in fees so just to for the for the listeners uh private is like private Equity passive is index funds.

绝对如此,还有私募债。世界正在从上市公司转向私营公司。

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absolutely and and and private debt the world the world is moving away from public companies towards private companies.

治理方面也发生了一场革命,气候议题备受关注,费用也大幅下降。整个行业正在经历一场重大的颠覆。

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um a a revolution in governance huge agenda on climate um collapse in fees so wholesale change the industry is going through a major disruption.

英国资本市场的衰落与美国市场的崛起

一段时间前,这个行业有很多英国公司,都是非常显赫的名字,表现非常好,拥有悠久的传统,然后美国人来了,抢走了你们的市场份额。

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a while back there were lots of English companies in this industry you know really really Grand names doing very well huge tradition and then the Americans came and ate your lunch.

彼得·哈里森:我认为有两点:首先是资本市场转向了美国,他们最初拥有巨大的国内偏好。

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Peter: so look I think the two things the capital markets moved towards America that was the first thing and they started with a huge domestic bias.

但我认为英国公司没有进化,而我们一直在努力将业务转向当前快速流动的市场。

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but I don't think the UK companies evolved and and part of what we've been in the business of is trying to change the business to where the fast flowing water is.

今天的市场非常不同,如果你不改变,你就无法跟上快速发展的潮流。

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today there's very very different markets and and if you don't change you're not going to be in the fast flowing water.

为什么美国人做得更好?

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why are the Americans doing better.

彼得·哈里森:我认为国内市场的规模使其能够实现规模效应,这毕竟是一个规模化业务。

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Peter: well I think I think the size of the domestic Market makes it able to able to create scale and this is a scale business at the end of the day.

你需要大量投资于技术和数据,如果你不这样做,你就无法通过收缩来实现增长。

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you you need to invest hugely in Tech in data and and if you don't if you if you you cannot shrink to grow.

我认为太多公司在看到颠覆时,认为应该收缩并削减成本。而我们认为需要投资才能增长,这是一种不同的策略,但我认为这是唯一的出路。

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and I think too many companies s they saw the disruption and they thought actually we're going to shrink we're going to try and cut costs we took the view we need to invest to grow and it's it was a different strategy but it's I think the only way through it.

美国人作为美国人,他们倾向于投资以求增长。

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and the Americans being American they tend to want to invest to grow.

但这不仅仅是资产管理行业,银行也是如此,比如正在合并的银行。

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but it's not only the asset management it's also the banks like the merging Banks.

彼得·哈里森:完全正确,完全正确。

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Peter: absolutely right absolutely right.

但是美国人工作更努力吗?他们更聪明吗?是什么原因?

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but are the Americans working harder are they clever what is it.

彼得·哈里森:不,不,他们没有更努力,也没有更聪明,但他们确实有一些固有的规模优势。

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Peter: no no they're not they're not working hard and they're not clever but they do have some innate advantages of of scale to start with.

他们最初拥有更多合伙制结构,我认为这在资产管理业务中是非常好的结构,因为你与公司内部的人分享100%的利润,而不是一部分。

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they had more partnership type structures which I think is is is is a very good structure in an asset management business um because you're sharing 100% % of the pie with with people in the business rather than a portion of the pie.

我认为我们也看到了私募市场增长的巨大变化,在私募市场中,你越大,你的护城河就越大。

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and I think we've also seen this very big change of the growth of privates and and in private markets the bigger you are the bigger the mode.

你确定他们没有更努力工作吗?

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are you sure they're not working harder.

彼得·哈里森:我听过一个故事,我认为可能是真的,当美国人来到伦敦时,他们在周五上午拥有最宽的利润率和最赚钱的一天,因为英国人在周四晚上出去喝酒了。

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Peter: so I heard a story which I actually think may be true uh when the Americans came to to London they had the widest margin and the most profitable day on part of the week on Friday morning because the English guys had been out drinking on Thursday night.

所以他们的价差更宽,竞争不那么激烈,而美国人周五早上就冲进去,大干一场。

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and so they were just wider spreads less Keen competition and the American guys were just like in there Friday morning bang hitting it.

我不知道,如果我走遍这座大楼,这里到处都是人,所以我只能代表这里说话。但在那个时期,我们一直很成功。

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I don't know if I walk around this building this is this this place is full so I can only speak for here but but then we've been successful during that period yeah.

施罗德的战略转型与英国资本市场的挑战

施罗德最近做了哪些最重要的事情?

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what's been the most important things that schroers have done lately.

彼得·哈里森:我们转向了私募市场,转向了财富管理,我们在技术上投入了大量资金,在可持续性及其含义上也投入了大量资金。

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Peter: we've pivoted towards privates we've pivoted towards wealth we've spent a lot on technology we've spent a lot on uh sustainability and what that means um and I'm sure we should talk more about that.

对我来说,重要的是能够行动和创新,并对自己严格要求以进行改变。我认为这需要文化变革,也需要新的能力。

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but I for me the ability to move and innov and being being really tough on ourselves to change and I think that that requires cultural change and it requires new capabilities.

所以在过去十年中,这需要大量的改变。

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so so it's required a lot of change during the last 10 years.

英国资本市场的衰落在这里扮演了什么角色?

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how does the kind of the decline of the UK Capital Market play in here.

彼得·哈里森:如果你回到15年前,英国拥有世界上最大的国内储蓄池之一。

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Peter: so if you go back go back 15 years the UK has one of the largest pools of domestic Savings in the world yeah.

我们通过监管将其扼杀了,所以它基本上只购买政府债券,停止承担风险。

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and we regulated that out of existence so it basically bought government bonds and and stop taking risk.

我们将消费者保护置于中心位置,这大大缩小了英国作为股票市场的规模,在过去15年中出现了巨大的资金外流。

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and we put consumer protection at the center and that Shrunk the UK as as an equity Market considerably saw huge outflows over the last 15 years.

然后我们引入了公司治理准则,其中规定股东与公司之间的冲突是好事,每个排行榜都以你投票反对管理层的次数越多越好。

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and then we put in a corporate governance code which said conflict between shareholders and companies is a good thing and everything every League table was the more times you vote against management the better.

这两件事对上市和蓬勃发展的国内资本市场都没有帮助。

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and those two things were were unhelpful for listings they were unhelpful for thriving domestic Capital.

现在这些正在改变,人们正在回归承担更多风险,回归更具建设性的环境。

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those are now changing and people are are going back towards more risk- taking they're going back to a more constructive environment.

所以上市市场一直在挣扎。我认为与此同时,伦敦在私募市场和对冲基金方面蓬勃发展,成为人们聚集的中心。

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so the the listed Market has has struggled I think what's happened at the same time is London has boomed with private markets with hedge funds um as a center for you know people coming together.

我们有一些非常棒的生命科学公司,问题在于它们是由外国资本驱动的,而不是国内资本。

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we've got some fantastic Life Sciences the problem is it's being it's foreign Capital which is driving those businesses not domestic Capital.

因此,回报并没有流向英国储户,我认为作为一个国家,这是一个大问题。

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so the returns are not going to UK Savers and I think as a country that's a big problem.

但这可能也是股票市场的组成部分。美国市场在过去十年中以欧洲大约两倍的速度增长,当然这主要是由于英国有更多科技公司,而我们有更多采矿和石油公司。

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but it's also probably the constituent is of of the stock markets right so um uh the US market has compounded at roughly twice the rate of Europe over the last 10 years of course due to a lot of you know much more TCH companies in in the UK more mining oil.

我们拥有的是100年前的公司,它们并不是推动未来增长的公司。

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yeah we've got the companies of 100 years ago and and they're not the companies that that are driving the growth of the future.

我认为创造一个人们愿意上市的环境,以及管理层愿意在伦敦上市的环境,是过去几年一直在进行的重大变革的一部分,即要说这是不可接受的,你不能让最好的公司去海外上市。

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and I think creating a listings environment where people want to and creating an environment where where management want to be listed in London has been a big part of the change which has been going on over the last few years to say say this this is unacceptable you cannot have your best companies going and listing overseas.

薪资和董事会薪资有多重要?

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how important is the salaries and board salar salaries.

彼得·哈里森:在英国受到了巨大的审查。

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Peter: a lot more scrutiny in the UK a huge amount of scrutiny.

我认为这是一种观念,认为股东与管理层之间存在冲突。对我来说,最好的业务是由优秀的管理层通过与股东良好协调而发展起来的。

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I think it's this notion that there's a conflict between shareholders and management and for me the best businesses are grown by by great management but good alignment with shareholders.

代理问题越多,人们就越不会致力于创造伟大的企业。我认为这正是英国问题的一部分。

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and the more Agency problems you get the the more people don't aim at creating great businesses and I think that's that's been part of the UK problem.

英国脱欧对此有何影响?

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what does brexit do to this.

彼得·哈里森:英国脱欧只是破坏了两件事:它破坏了人们对英国作为长期决策地的信心,并造成了两三年的完全停滞。

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Peter: well breakfast was just it undermined two things it undermined confidence in the UK as a place to make long-term decisions and it created two or three years of complete Hiatus.

然后,在英国脱欧之后,你经历了鲍里斯政府,鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)政府,以及围绕莉兹·特拉斯(Liz Truss)预算和国债危机的一系列挑战。

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and then you after brexit you had Boris government Boris Johnson's government you had a whole set of challenges around LZ trust's budget and the guilts crisis.

突然之间,英国作为重要的合作伙伴和投资地的地位开始下降。我们已经开始看到这种情况得到纠正,但伤疤需要一段时间才能愈合。

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all of a sudden the UK as a serious counterpart and a place to invest started to decline we've started to see that correct but but say scars take a while to heal now um.

英国养老金改革与欧洲统一市场的挑战

现在,重振养老金行业以期为养老金领取者带来更好结果的努力进展如何?

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the effort to reboot the pensions industry to get better outcome for pensioners how is that going so because you've been part of some of these commit.

彼得·哈里森:这是一项巨大的改革努力。我认为我们已经做了一些事情,我们改变了所有的上市规则,并改变了许多结构性问题。

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Peter: it's been it's a big big effort to change I think we've we've we've done a couple of things we've changed all the listing rules and changed a lot of the the structural stuff.

你即将看到公司治理环境发生一系列重大变化,并回归“遵守或解释”原则,即如果公司不遵守规则,它们是否有机会解释为何采取不同做法。

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you're about to see a big set of changes come through in the corporate governance environment and a return to complier explain as a as a way of how do you you know if a company doesn't follow the rules can do they get the opportunity to explain why they're doing it differently.

我认为这将会有所帮助。

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and I think that that's going to come through helpfully um.

你正在看到许多以前只用于风险最小化的资本被解放出来。

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and you're getting a freeing up of a lot of the capital which is previously just put into you know risk minimization.

在英国,我们有3000亿英镑的税收优惠现金储蓄,但几乎没有金融咨询服务。每个人都把钱存在现金中,而不是承担风险。

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we have in the UK 300 billion in tax advantage cash savings and virtually no Financial advice everybody sits in cash rather than taking risk.

如果你不承担风险,你就赚不到回报,这就是英国的问题。我们将消费者保护置于中心位置,却扼杀了风险承担。

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well if you don't take risk you don't earn return and that's the UK's problem we put consumer protection right at the center and killed risk taking.

是否存在为了吸引公司而过度放松规则和法规,以至于变成“狂野西部”的危险?

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is there um a danger that in order to attract companies you loosen up on the rules and regulations to the extent that it becomes you know uh Wild West.

彼得·哈里森:那是很多人会提出的论点。另一个问题是,如果你不承担风险,你就得不到回报。

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Peter: well that's that's the argument that a lot of people will make the the other question is if you take no risk you don't get a return.

所以我认为答案是,你有一套规则,如果公司遵守这些规则,他们就可以在英国上市。然后由主动管理者(Active Managers: 积极主动选择股票以跑赢市场的基金经理)来选择他们想要持有哪些股票,不想要持有哪些股票。

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and so I I think the the answer is you you have a set of rules and if companies abide by those rules they can list in the UK and then it's for active managers to choose which they want to own and which they don't want to own.

我认为英国一直擅长积极承担风险,我认为你需要稍微小心,不要制定一套如此限制性的规则,以至于没有人愿意留在这里。

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and and I think the UK has always been good at active risk- taking and I think you slightly careful that you don't set a set of rules which is so prohibitive that no one wants to be here.

五年前我们就是那样,但现在已经改变了。

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and that's where we were 5 years ago that that's changed.

我们需要一个统一的欧洲股权资本市场吗?

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do we need a unified European Equity Capital Market.

彼得·哈里森:是的。

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Peter: yeah.

我们会得到它吗?

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and will will we get it.

彼得·哈里森:不会。

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Peter: no.

为什么不?

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why not.

彼得·哈里森:政治上太困难了。欧洲实验内部有太多的压力,无法看到这种融合的实现。

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Peter: too politically difficult there's two there's too much stress within the European experiment to see that that convergence come together.

我的意思是,如果我们有它,你会怎么做?

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I mean if if we had it what would you do.

彼得·哈里森:我认为你会创造一个足够大的单一资本市场,使其开始与美国竞争。

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Peter: well I think I think you create a a big enough single Capital Market that it starts to be competitive against the US.

过去几年的挑战是,我们曾经有伦敦、纽约和一两个其他市场,现在可能有15个挑战者想要成为全球金融市场。

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the great the the the challenge of the last few years has been that we used to have London New York and one or two other markets now there are probably 15 challenges to be a Global Financial market.

欧洲需要团结起来,发挥其应有的规模,但它太碎片化了,有太多的套利空间。

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and Europe needs to act get it act together and and act its size but it's so fragmented and there's so many so many bits of Arbitrage.

我的意思是,如果我们只看一套名为MiFID(Markets in Financial Instruments Directive: 欧盟金融工具市场指令,旨在提高金融市场透明度和效率)的规则,这听起来很专业,但实际上它对许多研究的进行方式产生了非常有害的变化。

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I mean if we just take we had a set of rules that came out called mhid which was a um sounds really geeky but actually there was a really really pernicious changes that took place in the way a lot of research was done.

但每个国家都对其进行了不同的解释,结果导致了更多的碎片化,最终是原子化,而美国将继续增长。

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and but every country interpreted them differently and as a result of that you got more fragmentation and you get ultimately atomization and the US will carry on growing.

所以对我来说,这是为了让客户单独支付研究费用。

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and so me it was an effort to get uh the clients to pay separately for research.

但那只是其中一部分。它还包括了数十万页的报告等等,这些都放在某个保险库里,没有人知道它们最终会怎样。

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but that was one part of it yeah it also was hundreds of thousands of pages of reporting Etc which was you know sits in a vault somewhere no idea whatever happens to it.

从资产管理的角度来看,您对政府目前的表现满意吗?

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from an asset uh management point of view are you happy with the government so far.

彼得·哈里森:我认为他们已经接过了需要改变的接力棒,并理解增长的重要性,以及增长环境和产业战略的重要性。

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Peter: I think they've picked up the battern of needing to change and understanding that growth is important and understanding the environment for growth and an industrial strategy is important.

所以这部分似乎正在实现,但这还处于非常早期阶段。政府面临的挑战很严峻,当没有钱的时候尤其严峻,而英国现在没有钱。

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so that bit that bit seems to be coming through but it's very early days the government is tough and it's really tough when there's no money and in the UK there is no money.

你如何平衡增长和更高的税收?

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and and that's going to you know how do you balance growth and higher taxes.

私募市场对个人退休储蓄的重要性

你提到了私募市场,比如私募股权等等,它们对个人退休储蓄将扮演怎样的角色?

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you mentioned the private Market or you know private equity and so on how uh what kind of role is that going to play for individuals who save for retirement.

彼得·哈里森:我认为它需要扮演一个更重要的角色。

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Peter: I think it needs to play a much bigger role.

为什么?

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so if why.

彼得·哈里森:因为未来很大一部分是关于我们如何资助气候转型,如何资助合成生物学,如何资助人工智能。

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Peter: well because a lot of the a lot of the future is around how we fund climate transition how we fund synthetic biology how we fund AI.

公开市场天生不擅长A颠覆和B资助变革。

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public markets are not naturally good at A disruption and B funding change.

所以你会看到这些创新来自私募市场,如果我们不接受这一点,如果我们仍然固守100年前的公司,那么这些新的回报和颠覆只会成为最终储户的成本,而不是他们的利益。

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so you're going to see that Innovation come from private markets and if we don't if we don't Embrace that and we and we and we hide in those companies of 100 years ago those new returns and that disruption will only be a cost to end Savers rather than a benefit to them.

所以我认为需要一个巨大的变革。公开市场正在迅速萎缩,退市公司的数量在20年内下降了40%。

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so I I think there's a there is a big change required I mean public markets are shrinking really quickly the number of companies that are D listing is down what 40% over 20 years.

传统公开市场投资者(也就是你们的客户,我们的客户)的交易股票正在萎缩,获得Alpha(Alpha: 指投资组合在扣除市场风险后获得的超额收益)的能力正在萎缩,跑赢市场的能力正在萎缩。

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the stock in trade of a traditional public markets investor you know your clients our clients is shrinking the availability of alpha is shrinking the ability to outperform markets.

所以对我来说,这些都是非常大的问题,就像锅里的青蛙慢慢被煮熟一样,它们没有得到足够的讨论。

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so for me those are those are those are really big issues that as the Frog quietly boils in the pan they don't get talked about enough.

我认为我们将看到的一个重大变化是,传统上对私募市场敞口不大的财富市场,将更多地转向私募市场。

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and I think one of the big changes we're going to see is Is wealth markets which don't traditionally have big exposure to private markets are going to move much more into priv.

你正在美国看到这种情况,你正在最大的家族中看到这种情况。我的意思是,你们既服务于私募股权,也服务于财富管理,对吗?

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and you're seeing it in the states you're seeing it biggest families I mean you cater for private Equity you also cater for wealth management right.

彼得·哈里森:是的。

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Peter: yeah.

所以这对你们来说是相对较新的事情?

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so this is a relatively new thing for you.

彼得·哈里森:是的,在过去,我们做了很多年的财富管理,在过去十年中我们使其规模大了很多,我们将公司规模扩大了一倍,这主要是通过发展我们的私募业务和财富业务实现的。

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Peter: yeah in the last we've we've done wealth management for many years we've we've made it a lot bigger over the last 10 years and we've doubled the size of the company and and that's mainly been through growing our privates business and growing our wealth business.

人工智能对资产管理的影响

人工智能将如何改变你们的工作方式?

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AI how is that going to change the way you do things.

彼得·哈里森:方方面面。

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Peter: everything.

在哪些方面?

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in what ways.

彼得·哈里森:方方面面。我认为它从根本上改变了我们投资的公司的格局。

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Peter: everything well I think it fundamentally changes the landscape of the companies we invest in.

在非常短期内,我们将花费大量时间尝试做得更好,可能比我们意识到的要快得多。

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in the very short term we will spend a lot of time trying to do things better in the probably far more quickly than we realize.

我们会发现我们做事的方式会非常非常不同。目前我们都在思考如何做得更好,但实际上真正的改变将来自我们以不同的方式做事。

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we will find we do things very very very differently and the moment we're all thinking about the better bit but actually the real change will come from when we do it differently.

所以我认为首先,我们将在财富管理领域看到重大变化,因为我的感觉是人们会转向他们出色的人工智能助手,它会比任何人都更了解他们,并以他们目前向人寻求财富建议的方式向它寻求建议。

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so I think in the first place we'll see a major changes in wealth because my sense is that people will turn to their beautiful AI assistant who will become who will know them better than anybody and ask them for wealth advice in way that they currently ask people.

我不认为我们的投资组合经理与任何其他行业有什么不同。如果人工智能能够帮助我们逆向理解人类基因组和微生物组,它当然可以帮助你成为更好的投资者。

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and I I don't believe our portfolio managers are in different from any other industry if we can if if AI is helping understand the human genome back backwards the microbiome backwards it can certainly help you make become a better investor.

我认为我们有责任确保这些工具和数据在我们的投资组合经理做出决策时摆在他们面前。

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and I think it's beholden on us to make sure those tools and that data is in front of our portfolio managers when they make decisions.

施罗德的投资哲学与团队建设

转向投资哲学,施罗德有自己的一套管理资金的方式吗?

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moving on to investment philosophy is there a Schroeder way of running money.

彼得·哈里森:不,施罗德有一套关于如何创建优秀团队和如何承担风险的哲学。

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Peter: no there is a schroer set of philosophy about how you create great teams and how you take risk um.

但我们的哲学是,不同的市场需要不同的对待。

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but our philosophy is you create individual markets require different different treatment.

所以如果你在中国投资,你需要一种不同的方法,但你几乎肯定会有一个相对较小的团队,拥有出色的工具,由杰出的人领导,你会内部培养人才,而不是试图从外部招聘。

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so if you're investing in China you need a different approach but you almost certainly will have a relatively small team with great tools you'll be led by by brilliant people you'll grow people internally rather than try and hire them in because it's so now now you are on how to build good teams how to build good teams okay.

好的,我们来谈谈如何建立优秀的团队。

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now you are on how to build good teams how to build good teams okay let's do that.

彼得·哈里森:首先,你需要这些团队的杰出领导者,你需要给他们提供出色的工具,他们需要有合适的规模,他们需要靠近当地市场。

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Peter: so how do you build good teams first thing you you need brilliant leaders of those teams you need to give them great tools they need to be the right size they need to be near their local markets um.

你需要给他们犯错的空间,因为伟大的投资者并非每天都做对。他们可能会连续三四年都犯错,你必须愿意支持他们。

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and you need to give them space to get things wrong because great investors don't get it right every single day then they might be wrong for three or four years at a time time and you've got to be willing to put your arms around them and support them.

但关键是你了解他们承担的风险,他们是优秀的风险承担者,你清楚谁在管理这些风险以及回报的路径依赖性。

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but the critical thing is you understand the risk they take and they're good Risk Takers and you and you got your head around who is managing their way through that and the path dependency of returns.

我们投资了你们一些最优秀的团队,对吗?您认为他们有什么共同点?优秀的团队有什么共同点?

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so we are invested with some some of your best teams right what would you say they have in common what do great teams have in common.

彼得·哈里森:人员的高度稳定性,对外部思维的开放性,他们向外看,而不是向内看,他们是优秀的风险承担者。

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Peter: huge consistency of people MH openness to external thinking they they look out they don't look in and they're great Risk Takers.

什么是优秀的风险承担者?

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what is a great risk taker.

彼得·哈里森:他们理解风险回报方程,他们理解何时改变,他们理解为什么他们犯了错误。

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Peter: they understand they understand the risk reward equations and they understand when they change and they understand why they've been wrong.

你可以因为国有企业在中国做了一些事情,或者因为一些政府刺激而犯错,或者你可以因为选错了公司而犯错,或者你持有的公司护城河消失了,你却抱持太久。

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in a way that is you you can be wrong in China because state owned Enterprises are doing something because some government stimulus or you can be wrong because you've just picked the wrong company or or you've or you've got a the company you have the motors disappeared and you end up clinging on to it for too long.

你需要了解价格走势以及业务如何变化,并愿意改变。有些人会固步自封,而另一些人则会前进。

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if you you need to understand the price action and how the business is changing and be willing to change and some people get stuck others move.

那些能够适应并坚持一贯理念的人,往往能够成功。你经常看到人们动摇,如果他们动摇,他们很可能无法驾驭长期的变化。

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and it's the ones that move and are able to adapt and and hold on to a consistent philosophy and and so so often you see people wavering and if you see people wavering the chances are they won't be able to navigate through long-term change.

单一与多元投资策略的优劣

不采用单一资本管理方式的优缺点是什么?因为像富达(Fidelity)和资本集团(Capital Group)都有自己管理资本的方式。

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one of the pros and cons of not having one way of running Capital because um Fidelity I guess got you know one way of running you know Capital uh cap the capital has got one way running Capital.

彼得·哈里森:嗯,资本集团有几种管理资本的方式,因为他们把它交给许多独立的团队,然后他们非常聪明地将其聚合起来。

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Peter: well capital's got it's got several ways of running Capital because they give it to lots of individual teams and then they're very clever of the way they aggregate it up.

但我认为对我来说,关键在于问责制。你能够审视一个团队,并说我们的油价预测不是来自一个中央人物,然后将其输入整个系统,当它出错时,整个系统都会崩溃。

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but I think the for me it's the accountability so you you've got that ability to look at a team and say our oil price forecast doesn't come from one Central person who and then put it into the whole system and when it goes wrong blows up the whole system.

所以它创造了一种更强的业务韧性。但我认为一个团队的问责制,他们的职责所在,团队中的每个人都能看到,他们都知道谁对什么负责。

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so it creates a business resilience that is stronger but I think that accountability of a team who is job it is and they can see everyone in the team they all know know who's accountable for what.

当你在组织层面尝试这样做时,长期保持这种问责制和一致性是非常困难的,尤其是在变革时期。

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when you're trying to do that at an organizational scale it's really hard to hold that accountability in alignment for long periods of time particularly through change.

你往往会看到那些拥有整个组织投资流程的公司会经历漫长的螺旋式下降,因为组织开始质疑其存在的理由。

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and what you tend to see is those companies that have a whole organization investment process can go through long downward spirals because the organization starts to question its own raise on debt.

我认为在一个需要高度适应性的世界里,让小团队进行适应要强大得多。

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and I I think in a world where we need to be very adaptive the ability to have small teams adapting is a lot stronger.

现在,你必须给他们提供出色的工具,你必须给他们提供出色的数据。

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now you've got You' got to give them great tools you've got to give them great data.

什么是出色的工具?

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what are great tools.

彼得·哈里森:对我来说,当我35年前刚进入这个行业时,我们的竞争优势是能够将10年的报告账户输入电子表格,以建立一个两年的盈利模型。

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Peter: well I so for me look when I when I first joined this industry 35 years ago our competitive Advantage was being able to key in 10 years of reporting accounts into um a spreadsheet to build a two-year earnings model right yeah.

现在那已经不再是优势了,对吗?今天,做那件事只需要两秒钟。

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that does that doesn't win anymore does today that takes about two seconds to do that.

但是有大量的非结构化数据,告诉我们业务中正在发生什么,公司真正在做什么,供应链是什么样的。

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but there is a huge amount of unstructured data out there telling us what's going on in businesses what companies are really doing what the supply chains look like.

获取、处理和提取这些非结构化数据需要大量工作。这些就是我所说的出色工具。

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that that unstructured data takes a lot of getting and processing and and bringing out those those are the sorts of things I mean by great tools.

我总是开玩笑说,彭博终端(Bloomberg: 一款金融数据和新闻终端)有大约10万个功能,而一个优秀的投资组合经理可能只使用其中的30个。这不是正确的答案。

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the the the the the joke I always have is that Bloomberg has um something like a 100,000 functions and a great portfolio manager might use 30 of them and that's not that's not the right answer.

你如何将正确的信息呈现在投资者面前,让他们做出明智的决策?

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how do you get the right information in front of your investors so they make great decisions.

人才培养与领导力转型

你如何培训人才?

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how do you train people.

彼得·哈里森:我们内部培养他们。我认为我们是一个学徒制业务,这需要大量的指导,需要一个出色的初期招聘流程,并且需要能够让人们通过一个系统逐步承担责任。

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Peter: you grow them I think we're in apprenticeship business and and that requires a lot of a lot of mentorship it requires a a great recruitment process at the beginning and it requires the ability to move people through a system and gradually give them um accountability.

所以当我作为一名应届毕业生加入时,你会花时间,你知道,我花了很多时间作为一名工程分析师,然后我可以继续从事另一个行业,一点一点地学习你的手艺。

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so when I joined as a graduate trainee you spent time you know I spent a lot of time as an engineering analyst then I could go on and do another industry and bit by bit you learn your craft.

我不太相信我们擅长从外部引进“摇滚明星”。有些公司在这方面做得非常好,比如Citadel(一家对冲基金)和Millennium(一家对冲基金),但那不是我们。

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I I'm not a great believer that we are good at bringing in rock stars from the outside there are businesses that do that incredibly well you know the citadels and millenniums do that that's not us.

我们来谈谈你的领导力。从一个投资者转变为首席执行官,你学到了哪些主要的管理经验?

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let's move on to your leadership what's been the main management lessons for you as you have moved from being an investor to becoming the CEO.

彼得·哈里森:这很难。我们行业最好的工作是成为一名投资者,对吧?

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Peter: it's tough the best job in our industry is being an investor right so so you know that's that's that's the first hard bit.

你会有这样一个危机时刻,早上你不再打开彭博终端,而是打开你的电子邮件。

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and you have this this crisis moment where you don't turn on your Bloomberg in the morning you turn on your you turn on your emails.

你是一个好的投资者吗?

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were you a good investor.

彼得·哈里森:不,不够好。我意识到我不是一个足够好的投资者。

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Peter: no not not good enough and it was realization I wasn't a good enough investor.

这是彼得原理吗?你在等级制度中会升到自己无能的水平?

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is it the pie of principal you rise to your own level of incompetence in a hierarchy or something like that.

彼得·哈里森:所以,第一件事是克服作为一名投资者,而不是试图从后座驾驶。

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Peter: um so that so the the first the first thing was was get getting over being an investor and not trying to drive from the back seat.

第二件事是了解自己是哪种领导者,因为当你开始管理之旅时,你并不知道。

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um the second was understanding what sort of leader I was because you don't really know that when you start on the management journey.

你是哪种领导者?

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and what kind of leader are you.

彼得·哈里森:我发现我是一个与组织连接,并试图同时驱动组织的“心”和“智”的领导者,这最终成为了我的风格。

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Peter: well I I've discovered that I'm I'm a connecting with the organization and trying to drive the heart of the organization as much as the minds of the organization has been ended up being being the style that that I've done.

我对创新充满热情。我通过编写代码赚取学费读完了大学,所以我有点像个技术宅。

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I'm passionate about Innovation I'm I spent my time paid my way through University Writing code so I'm a bit of a geek.

对我来说,实现创新,对你的战略愿景保持高度一致,保持韧性,不偏离航向,但要确保你带着组织一起前进。

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so for me the the getting the Innovation being really consistent about your strategic Vision just being resilient and not be banged off course um but making sure you take the organization with you.

因为大多数企业的问题是存在巨大的“永冻层”,他们认为变革与他们无关。

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because the problem in most businesses is the huge layers of permafrost that don't think change has got anything to do with them.

你如何带领这些人,并创造这些新的能力?

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and how do you bring those people through and and create those new capabilities.

你如何融化“永冻层”?

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how do you melt permafrost.

彼得·哈里森:我认为是文化变革。优秀的团队是好公司和伟大公司之间的区别,而这些团队中的优秀领导者将推动这种变革。

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Peter: I think culture change the so so great great teams right is a difference between a between a good company and a great company and and and great leaders within those teams will will drive that change.

但你需要让阳光照进黑暗的角落,这是最好的消毒剂。你如何做到这一点?

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but you need to shine daylight into dark Corners it's the best disinfectant and how do you do that.

一部分是创造一个开放和诚实的环境。所以,你知道,我们,假设我们在客户账户上犯了一个错误,对吧?有两种回应方式。

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part of it is creating an open an honest environment but so you know we there's two let's say let's say we make an error on a client account right there's two ways of two ways of responding that.

第一种是显而易见的,即你如何从中学习。第二种是指责等等。

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first is the obvious way which is had you learn from it and the second way is is finger pointing and all the rest of it.

如果你创造一个环境,说我们想从中学习,大多数人都会开始想要来工作并学习。

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if you create the environment which says we want to learn from this people start most people want to come to work to learn.

我认为你必须创造那种学习环境和信任环境。一旦你做到了,我们并不是一家特别大的公司,我们有6000人。

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and I think you've got to create that learning environment and that trusting environment and once you do that we're not a particularly big company we're 6,000 people.

回顾与反思:更大胆的决策

你看起来非常,你知道,你是否足够大胆?

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we we can be trusted 700 so we we think you look you look heck of a lot you know have you been bold enough.

彼得·哈里森:如果我回顾过去,我希望我做得更多的事情是更大胆。

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Peter: so I if I look back what's the thing I wish I'd done more of is be more bold.

你在哪些方面应该更大胆?

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and in what ways should you have been more bold.

彼得·哈里森:我们应该更早地进入私募市场,因为复利效应。我们可能应该更愿意收购更多的团队,而不是做那么多有机增长。

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Peter: so we should have done more private markets earlier because compounding up we should have probably been more willing to acquire more teams and not do as much organically um.

我认为我回顾过去的事情。

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and I think I look back the things.

但你们已经收购了很多。

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but you have acquired quite a lot.

彼得·哈里森:我们确实收购了很多,但我们收购的规模较小,因为我不想破坏文化。

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Peter: we have acquired quite a lot but we acquired small because I didn't want to destroy the culture yeah.

对我来说,挑战在于公开市场文化和私募市场文化确实非常不同,你是否能让它们在同一个组织中成功共存,这很难。

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and so for me because the challenge I think is that public market culture and private Market culture are really different and can you get them to coexist in the same organization successfully is is hard.

你已经看到这毁掉了许多公司。所以我说,我们会在这方面非常努力,但我们会慢慢来。

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and that was the thing which you've seen ruin many companies and I so I said we're going to we're going to work really hard at this but we're going to go slowly.

事后看来,我们行业的颠覆比任何人想象的都要快得多。

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with hindsight the disruption in our industry has been way quicker yeah than anyone thought yeah.

嗯,你们收购的其中一部分是Cazenove(一家英国财富管理公司),那是我开始职业生涯的地方。

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well uh one of the things you bought was part of Casino which is where I started absolutely I started my my my career in 20 well you bought it in 2013 part of it uh and that's where I started straight after school.

它现在做得很好,对吧?

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so um and that's doing pretty well right.

彼得·哈里森:它发展迅猛,可能是英国增长最快的财富管理业务。它拥有所有特征:强大的文化、出色的投资绩效,并且非常关心客户。

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Peter: it's it's it's on fire it's growing it's probably the fastest growing wealth business in the UK it's it's got and it's got all the characteristics it's got strong culture it's got great investment performance and it cares deeply about its clients.

如果你拥有这三样东西,业务实际上会长期持续表现良好。

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and if you if you have those three things actually businesses will carry on performing for very long periods of time.

你们还有女王作为客户吗?

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do you still have the queen as a client.

彼得·哈里森:我不能发表评论。

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Peter: I couldn't possibly comment.

在短时间内,你将把接力棒传给理查德·奥德菲尔德(Richard Oldfield)。你认为这会很难吗?

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uh in in a short period of time you will uh pass uh you know the bet on to Richard Oldfield do you think that'd be difficult.

彼得·哈里森:非常难。

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Peter: very hard.

为什么?

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why.

彼得·哈里森:我已经在金融行业工作了35年,我从一名应届毕业生开始在这里工作。我可能去过其他地方,但我会非常想念它,这是一家非常特别的公司。

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Peter: I've been in this industry 35 years I started here as a graduate trainer I might have gone elsewhere but I I will miss it's a very special company and I will miss it massively.

你对能够管理一家你开始职业生涯的公司感到非常感激,这是一种荣幸。

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and you feel a great sense of indebtedness to being it's a privilege to run a company that you start start your career in.

家族所有权与独立性之争

现在,如果我稍微扮演一下魔鬼的代言人,虽然你作为资产管理公司的首席执行官,业绩增长了很多,超过100%,但费用普遍下降了,对吧?

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now if if I were to um play Devil's Advocate a tiny bit here so um whilst you being the CEO aset N Management have grown you know a lot right more than 100% but uh fees generally come down right uh because there's more well there's generally pressure on fees costs gone up profits down and the market capitalization is is down compared to when you started just how do you how do you look at these various things.

因为费用普遍面临压力,成本上升,利润下降,而且与你刚开始时相比,市值也下降了。你如何看待这些不同的事情?

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uh because there's more well there's generally pressure on fees costs gone up profits down and the market capitalization is is down compared to when you started just how do you how do you look at these various things.

彼得·哈里森:我们正在穿越一个“山谷”。我们最初是一家传统的股票业务,经历了巨大的颠覆,所有在十年前拥有传统股票业务的公司都看到了巨大的变化,其中许多业务下降了90%,甚至已经不复存在。

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Peter: so we we're crossing so we started with a traditional equities business which has gone through huge disruption and and everybody who had a traditional equities business 10 years ago has seen a huge change and many of those businesses are down 90% or actually don't exist anymore.

所以我们所做的是大力投资于这些新业务,我们正在穿越一个山谷。

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so so what we've what we've done is invested heavily in those new businesses and we're crossing a valley.

随着传统业务面临压力,我们发展了这些新业务,正如你在我们的业绩中看到的,这些新业务的增长速度现在已经超过了旧业务的下降速度。

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so as a as a traditional business has come under pressure we've grown those new things and as you see in our results the the pace of growth of those new things now outstrips the decline in the old business.

所以当我们穿越这个山谷时,复合数学会为你工作,但这需要很长时间。我们永远无法撕毁我们在传统业务中拥有的真正强大的基础,这样做是错误的。

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so as we cross the valley that the compound maths does your work for you but it takes it takes a long time and we were never going to be able to tear up the the really strong Foundation that we had in that traditional business it would been wrong to.

所以对我来说,这将是一个漫长的过渡。我们认为那是进行过渡的正确方式。

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so we could for me that it was going to be a long transition um we took the view that that was the right way to make the transition um.

但如果我将我们与同行进行比较,我认为我们做得非常出色。但我完全理解你的观点,即最终股东希望获得更好的回报。

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but I if I look at us against our peers I think we' we've done you know a really strong job but I totally take the point that you know at the end of the day shareholders want alignment better returns.

我刚刚意识到我问了一个相当愚蠢的问题,关于女王是否仍然是客户。我怀疑她不是。

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I just realized I asked a pretty stupid question uh whether the queen was still a client I suspect she isn't.

彼得·哈里森:嗯,不,我不想纠正你,但我可以说皇家家族。

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Peter: well no I I didn't want to put you right on that but but I could change the royal family.

我在这里工作期间的一个亮点是来这里开放我们的建筑并展示它,那是一个传奇时刻。

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but one of one of the one of the highlights of of my uh of my time here was was was coming to open our building and showing around which was which was one of a legendary moment.

她开放的,对吗?

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yeah she opened it right.

彼得·哈里森:是的,她开放的。

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Peter: yes she opened it.

转向文化,家族仍然拥有44%的股份,你说这是施罗德存活200年的关键。家族所有权有什么缺点吗?或者说,有缺点吗?

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moving on to culture so um family still owns 44% and you said that was the key to surviving for 200 years um just what are the disadvantages of having family ownership or are there any.

彼得·哈里森:不,我认为关键在于它创造了巨大的资本纪律。

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Peter: so no I think the the key is um it creates a huge Capital discipline.

但它也以某种方式制造了障碍,因为你自然不希望稀释股权,如果你是一个长期持有股份的家族,心理上很难做到。

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but it also has a creates a blockage in a way because you you don't naturally want to dilution per se is a lot lot harder to do mentally if you're if you're a family that's that's held on to.

所以我们今天的股票发行量与1959年几乎相同。所以唯一的负面因素,其他一切都是正面的。

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so our shar's an issue today are virtually the same as they were in 1959 so that the only negative and everything else is a positive that.

但你看到了这种能力。布鲁诺·施罗德(Bruno Schroder)在我们的董事会会议桌旁坐了60年,他几乎每次会议都对我说,要着眼于20年后的发展。

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but but you you you see that ability so Bruno schroer sat around our boardroom table for 60 years and he said to me pretty well at every meeting get it right on a 20-year view.

现在董事会里还有两位家族成员,对吗?

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now you still have two family members on the board yeah.

彼得·哈里森:是的。但如果我们没有那种改变的许可,我想我不会有启动我们所做的转型和拐点的许可,因为我们必须转型,否则我们就会成为那些真正挣扎,没有投资以求增长的企业之一。

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Peter: yeah but if we hadn't have had that license to change I don't think I would have had the license to start the transition and the inflection that we've done because we had to transform otherwise we'd have been one of those businesses that was really struggling and not inves investing to grow.

你100%相信保持独立是正确的吗?

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are you 100% confident that it's right to be independent.

彼得·哈里森:是的,我确实相信。我的意思是,这是一个规模越来越重要的行业。

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Peter: yeah I am actually I mean it's it's look there an industry where the scale is getting more and more important.

所以我们最大的竞争对手黑石(Blackstone)和贝莱德(BlackRock)在此期间规模大大扩大。

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so our biggest competitors Blackstone Black Rock have got hugely bigger in this period.

但如果你想成为一个积极的Alpha经理,规模并非一切。为客户做好工作才是最重要的。

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but if you want to be an active Alpha manager scale is not everything doing a good job for your clients is frankly the most important thing.

因为现在,在审问中,你实际上补充说,“是的,我认为确实如此”是一个限定词,这意味着你通常不是100%确定。

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because now in in interrogation uh you know you added actually uh yes I think I think it is actually actually is a qualifier and it means that you are normally not 100% sure.

不,是什么让你不那么确定?

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no what are the what are the things that make you less sure about this.

彼得·哈里森:我认为这个行业正在经历,每个人都在谈论他们与谁合并等等。

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Peter: well I see the industry is going through everybody's talking about who they merge with and all the rest of it.

所以今天在我们的行业中,关于人们如何实现规模化,这是一个非常活跃的辩论。

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so so it is a very active debate in our industry today as to how people are going to get to scale right so so and the most common thing is people merging and everyone's up for sale.

最常见的是人们合并,每个人都在待售。我们的观点是,你可以通过投资增长,发展这些新业务,并从中找到出路来驾驭这一切。

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our view has been that you can you can navigate that by investing for growth growing these new businesses and seeing your way through.

我敏锐地意识到这是一个有争议的说法,大多数人不同意。所以我认为你确实需要限定它。

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I'm cutely aware that's a controversial statement most people disagree with it so I think I think you do have to qualify it.

但对我们来说,我们可以实现它,因为有家族背景。

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but for us we can we can achieve it because of the family background.

合并一些英国公司有意义吗?

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would it make sense to merge some of the UK players.

彼得·哈里森:哦,如果你是一些较小的公司,你可能确实需要合并,因为如果你是一个50、70、80、100、200亿英镑的业务,你就无法生存,因为你无法投资数据科学。

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Peter: oh if you're some of the smaller players you probably do need to merge yourself away because if you're a 50 70 80 100 200 billion business you're not viable to because you can't invest in a data science you can't invest in the.

但以770亿英镑的规模,你认为自己足够大吗?

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but at 770 you think you're big enough.

彼得·哈里森:我们770亿英镑的不同之处在于,它都是积极的,都是私募的,都是财富管理,都是高费用收入的富裕业务,里面没有大量的被动投资。

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Peter: what's different about our 770 is that it's all itive and it's all private and it's all wealth it's all high fee earning um Rich businesses not got a big chunk of passive in there.

所以我认为这是一个比一些看起来比我们大但实际上都是被动投资的业务更丰富的组合。

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so I I think that it's a it's a much richer mix of businesses than some of businesses which look bigger than us but frankly they're all passive.

可持续性与ESG投资的未来

转向可持续性和ESG(Environmental, Social, and Governance: 环境、社会和公司治理),您如何看待最近对ESG投资兴趣的波动?

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moving on to sustainability and ESG what do you make of the recent swing in appetite for ESG.

彼得·哈里森:首先要说的是,它已经被政治化了,所以你看到了巨大的地域分歧。

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Peter: well first thing say it's been politicized so that's so you've seen this huge Geographic diversion yeah um.

你绝对已经过了辩论的高峰期。我的意思是,很多人现在不想谈论它,你已经看到了。

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and you've you you absolutely have passed Peak debate I mean so a lot of people don't want to talk about it now and you've seen it.

但我认为在人们对气候重要性的认识方面,我认为这根本没有争议。

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but I think in borrs and people's awareness of the importance of climate I don't think that's debated at all.

所以公司正在做的事情是非常真实的,只是人们花更少的时间谈论它。

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so what companies are getting on and doing is very real it's just people spend a lot less time talking about it.

那么您认为它未来将如何发展?

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so how do you think it will develop going forward.

彼得·哈里森:我认为首先,它已经从空谈转向了数据。在我们的行业中,追求可持续性是有代价的。

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Peter: I think the first thing is it it's gone from hand waving to data and and in our industry there is a price to pursuing sustainability.

所以我们必须明白,如果我们想在这方面做得好,我们确实处于前三名,那是有代价的。

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you know so so we we have to understand that if we want if we want to be good at this and we are we're in top three of of doing it that comes at a ticket.

很多人都说我们不想支付那个代价。

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so a lot of people have said we don't want to pay that price um.

第二,我认为我们将会有越来越多的监管,以及全球范围内监管的碎片化,这在一个追求全球规模的行业中是一个痛苦。

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the second I think is that we will get more and more regulation and more and more fragmentation of Regulation around the world and that is a pain in an industry which is about global scale.

所以在日本、韩国、中国等地有不同的解释,这都很困难。

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so different interpretations in Japan to Korea to China ETA which all difficult um.

但如果你以不同的方式来看,公司会报告GAAP利润(GAAP Profits: 一般公认会计原则下的利润),但不同的公司对外部环境的成本有不同的衡量。

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but I if you come in a different way companies uh report Gap profits right but different companies put a different cost on the external environment.

如果你是烟草制造商,你会制造癌症;如果你是石油公司,你会制造碳排放;如果你是软饮料制造商,你会制造糖尿病。

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so if you're a tobacco maker you create cancer if you're an oil company you create carbon emissions if you're a um uh a soft drinks maker you create diabetes.

我们把所有这些GAAP利润都视为相同的,但它们实际上并不相同。企业的影响调整后利润差异很大。

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we treat all those Gap profits as the same the races are not the same right the after the impact adjusted profits of businesses are really very different.

我认为社会将越来越多地审视我们的企业,并说如果你不以同样的方式创造利润,我们需要以不同的方式思考投资,因为投资组合的实际影响调整后利润是不同的。

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I think Society will increasingly look at our businesses and say if you don't make profits the same way we need to think about investment in a different way because the real impact adjusted profits of P's portfolio differs.

资产管理者介于像你们这样的资产所有者和资产创造者及公司之间。

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and asset managers sit there between asset owners like yourself and asset creators and companies.

我认为我们的职责是揭示实现这种绩效的成本是什么,如果我们不能揭示这一点,我们就是失职。

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and I think it's our job to shine a light on what's the cost of delivering that performance and if we can't shine that light we're we're failing in our duty.

中国、印度及亚洲市场的展望

您是中国市场的第五大外国参与者,您如何看待未来的发展?

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you are the fifth largest um foreign player in the Chinese market how do you see that going forward.

彼得·哈里森:中国在房地产危机后正在经历一次重大调整。

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Peter: so China's going through a a major correction post um property crisis.

你看到了银行现金存款的巨大增长,因为这种破坏的财富效应正在显现。

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you've seen huge growth in cash deposits in Banks as as as this we the wealth effect of the of the destruction is is coming through.

但你也看到了中国正在进行巨大的能源转型。我认为在某个时候,你会看到风险承担的回归。

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but you're also seeing a huge massive energy transition going on in China and I I think you will see a return to risk-taking at some point.

中国人从乡村搬到城市获得了巨大的好处,这给了他们生产力提升。

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I mean CH the Chinese have had a a huge benefit of moving moving people from the countryside to cities and that's given them a productivity boost.

这种生产力提升不足以延续到未来,他们需要金融生产力。

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that productivity boost isn't enough to carry on into the future they need financial productivity.

为了实现金融生产力,他们可能需要外部参与者来帮助他们了解什么是好的金融生产力。

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and to to Achieve Financial productivity they probably need external players in to help show them what good Financial productivity looks like.

在那里拥有强大的地位,但运营财富基金管理、基金管理资产、私募股权资产,我认为对我们未来的增长非常有益。

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and a a strong position there but running wealth fund management fund management assets private Equity assets I think is is really additive for our future growth.

但今天它正在让我们亏钱,我做的一个不正确的赌注就是那个赌注的规模。

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but today it's Lo losing US money and one of the bets that I've made that hasn't been right has been the scale of that bet.

但如果你以20年的眼光来看,你会很高兴。

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but if you take a 20 of view be delighted with it.

但在一个地缘政治摩擦加剧的世界里,比如美国和中国之间,作为中国市场的大型参与者,你们面临的困境是什么?

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if you but in in a world with increased geopolitical frictions between the US and China for instance um what are the dilemas of being a large player in China for you.

彼得·哈里森:这真的很有趣,不是吗?大多数美国参与者在公开声明中已经停止谈论他们的中国投资,但他们并没有从他们在当地的活动中撤退,因为这是世界上最大的储蓄市场之一,仅次于美国。

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Peter: well it's really interesting isn't it most us players have stopped talking about their Chinese investments in their in their public statements but they haven't pulled back from their activities on the ground because this is one of the largest savings markets in the world is a huge you know it's it's second only to the US.

你们停止谈论它了吗?

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have you stop talking about it or.

彼得·哈里森:不,我们一直非常开放地谈论它。因为延斯·斯托尔滕贝格(Jens Stoltenberg: 前北约秘书长),他最近卸任了北约秘书长一职,他更直言不讳地谈论思考国防和安全,而不仅仅是做生意和利润。

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Peter: no we we we've said very open about it because Yen Yen Stenberg the who recently stepped down as the Secretary General of NATO uh you know he talks more vocally about um thinking about defense and security rather than just doing business and profits.

你们的优先事项改变了吗?

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h have your priorities changed.

彼得·哈里森:不,我认为我们业务的现实是,我们将会是地缘政治环境的接受者。

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Peter: no I think the the reality of our business is is you know we we will be a taker of the geopolitical environment.

我们必须对此敏感,政府会做出他们想做的任何国防决策。

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we have to be sensitive to it and governments will you know take take whatever defenses defense decisions they want to make.

我个人认为中国有巨大的储蓄增长机会,作为西方,我们应该希望参与其中。

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I I personally think that there is a huge opportunity for savings growth in China and we should as a West want to be engaging with that.

我们希望在绿色转型和公司治理方面与他们合作,就像我们在世界其他地方一样。

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we want to engage with them on Green transition we want to engage with them on corporate governance just as we do anywhere else in the world.

如果我们不参与,我们有两种选择:要么我们绕道而行,说这太困难了,太可怕了;要么我们跨过障碍,提供帮助。

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and we should be if we don't if we we got two choices as a society we either walk past on the other side of the road and say it's all too difficult and it's horrible or we or we cross the road and and and help.

我认为成为解决方案的一部分,在我看来一直是正确的做法。有时这需要更大的勇气和更艰难的努力,但我认为如果我们不参与,我们将自食其果。

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and and I think being part of the solution has always been to my mind the right way of doing it it's sometimes a lot braver and harder but I think we don't engage we're going to get what we deserve.

印度在您看来如何?

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how does India Look to You.

彼得·哈里森:目前看起来很棒,但我们必须清楚,回到十年前,中国正在蓬勃发展,而印度一无是处。

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Peter: looks great at the moment but let's be quite clear right CH go back 10 years ago China was booming and India was nothing anybody wanted and now it's the other way around.

现在情况反过来了,我相信十年后还会再次改变。

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and I'm sure in 10 years time it will move again.

但印度中产阶级的增长和正在进行的创新是惊人的。

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but the growth of the middle class the The Innovation that's going on in India is pH fanatical phenomenal.

但在我们的行业中,这是一个非常艰难的市场。我们受到监管机构的价格控制,储蓄量很大,但在总体上我们不能拥有100%的印度业务,这是一个挑战。

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but in our industry it's a super tough one to we've got we got price control from the regulator um great savings but um in aggregate we cannot Own 100% of of an Indian business which is a challenge.

但我们,你知道,我们在中国有很大的地位,我们也在印度和亚洲其他地区排名第七。

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but we we've you know we've got a big position in China we're also number seven in India and the rest of Asia.

您如何看待?

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how do you see that.

彼得·哈里森:我认为你必须逐个国家地看。我的意思是,总体而言,基金显然增长非常强劲。

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Peter: I think you got to look country by country I mean fund o overall it's it's clearly growing very strongly.

但我认为最有趣的是日本正在进行的公司治理变革,那是一个沉睡的国内储蓄巨人,公司从未真正领会到这一点,但这一点正在一点一点地改变,这让我很兴奋。

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but I think the most interesting one is the corporate governance change going on in Japan that that is a sleeping giant of domestic savings corporates who've never really got the message and bit by bit that is changing and that that that excites me.

阅读与导师:个人成长与未来规划

谈到兴奋,你读了很多什么书?

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talking about excitement um what do you read a lot what one of one of the greatest privileges is is is I'm a judge of the Ft book of the year so I read a lot of books about about business.

彼得·哈里森:我最大的荣幸之一是担任《金融时报》年度图书奖的评委,所以我读了很多关于商业的书。

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Peter: so I'm my anything which is about society today for me so so a brilliant book just out the longevity imperative that says we've get we're getting ourselves thinking about longevity completely the wrong way um.

对我来说,任何关于当今社会的东西,比如最近出版的一本精彩的书《长寿的当务之急》(The Longevity Imperative),它指出我们对长寿的思考方式完全错了。

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so so a brilliant book just out the longevity imperative that says we've get we're getting ourselves thinking about longevity completely the wrong way um.

乔纳森·海特(Jonathan Haidt)关于移动技术对儿童影响的书(《焦虑的一代》The Anxious Generation),还有关于食物系统崩溃的《贪婪》(Ravenous)。这些都是我认为我们面临的真正重大问题。

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Jonathan Height's book about the impact of mobile technology on children you know the the stuff ravenous about about Food Systems being broken around the world those are the really big issues I think we face.

你能再给我们一些书名吗?

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can we give us some more titles you read all these W Supremacy on on AI.

彼得·哈里森:关于人工智能的《W霸权》(W Supremacy)。艾米·埃德蒙森(Amy Edmondson)是我们去年的获奖者,你当然在你的播客中也提到过,那是一本关于从失败中学习的精彩书籍。

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Peter: you Amy Edmonson was was our winner last year which you you you obviously covered in your podcast which was a brilliant book on on learning from failure.

我认为有这么多伟大的,我的意思是,有这么多精彩的书籍正在被写出来。

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and I think there's so much great I mean there's so many brilliant books being written absolutely.

我只是没有足够的时间阅读。

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I just don't have enough time to read.

我同意。是的,我们在LinkedIn上评论了很多书,所以请在那里查看。

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I agree um yeah we we do review a lot of them on on LinkedIn so please uh uh check it out there um.

谁在你的生活中扮演了重要的导师角色?

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who's been important in your life in terms of a mentor.

彼得·哈里森:我认为导师非常有价值,我有很多位。

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Peter: I think I think mentors are are really valuable and I I've got several um.

我有一位特别的导师,前几天带我出去,他问我打算做什么。我说我不确定是否会继续从事执行工作。

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I I one one particular Mentor took me took me out the other night and he said what are you going to do and I said I'm not sure if I'm going to have an executive thing.

他说:“让我告诉你一件事,你已经不年轻了,你不应该在六十多岁的时候还想着做高管。放弃吧,去做一些更有价值的事情。”

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he said let me tell you something you're no spring chicken you shouldn't be thinking about being an executive in your mid-60s give it up go and do something more valuable.

有时你需要有人来。那会是什么?那么,在11月之后,你去做一些更有价值的事情会是什么?

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and you need you need people sometimes to take and what would that be and so for you to do something more valuable now uh after November what would that be.

彼得·哈里森:我将花六个月时间做所有我以前从未做过的事情。

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Peter: I I'm going to I'm going to spend 6 months doing all the things that I have never done before.

我将花更多时间钓鱼,更多时间在水上,更多时间阅读。然后我将去做一些疯狂的事情,比如种花,观鸟,随便你说什么,我都会做这些。

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and they are I I'm look I'm going to go I spend a lot more time fishing I'm going to spend a lot more time on the water I'm going to spend a lot more time reading and then I'm going to go and do some crazy things like grow flowers and um go bird watching you name it I'm going to do all this.

然后,这听起来像是典型的英式活动。

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and then sounds like typical English activities.

彼得·哈里森:不,我将花六个月时间钓鱼、观鸟、种植物,我将沉浸在其他事情中。

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Peter: well no I'm going to spend six month fishing bird watching plants I'm going to immerse myself in other stuff.

我希望从中能找到我之后应该做的事情。我不会停止做事,但我很清楚我不会再做执行工作。

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and out of that I hope to come up with what I should be doing afterwards I'm not going to stop doing things but what I am clear about I'm not going to do something executive.

听起来是个非常好的计划。彼得,最后,你对年轻人有什么建议?

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sounds like a really good plan uh Peter lastly what is your advice to young people.

彼得·哈里森:我认为如果我回顾过去,不要认为爬上“油腻的杆子”是通往幸福的道路。

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Peter: so I think if I reflect back do not assume that climbing the greasy pole is the route to being happy.

很多人看着社会结构,说我想在组织中担任更高级的职位等等。如果我回顾过去,我可能会说,做投资组合经理。

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so a lot of a lot of people look at the societal structures and say I want to be more senior in organization and all the rest if I look back I should probably say the portfolio manager um.

我认为他们必须参与进来。我认为他们很多人没有参与,我认为他们很多人需要跳出他们所受算法的束缚,他们被喂养相同的东西,人们停留在非常狭窄的管道中。

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if I I think they've got to engage I think a lot of them don't engage and I think a lot of them need to look outside of the algorithms that they are victims of and they get fed the same stuff and people stay in a very narrow pipe.

我们如何,我,这是一个导师计划,我们如何帮助打破这种循环,即社会只有一种观点?

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and I think how do how do we how do we I it's a mentorship program how do we help break that cycle of saying there's one view of society.

因为我认为人们需要非常不同地思考他们真正是谁,他们真正想要从生活中得到什么,而不是仅仅说这是关于下一次晋升。

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because I think people need to think very differently about who they really are and what they really want out of life and I rather than just saying it's about the next promotion.

彼得,非常感谢你今天来到这里,也非常感谢你和施罗德在过去25年里与我们的合作,以及你们为挪威银行投资管理公司赚取的资金。

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well Peter big thanks for being here today and a big thanks to you and troas for the partnership we've had for 25 years and for the money you have made for norgas Bank investment management.

彼得·哈里森:感谢你们对我们的信任,非常荣幸。

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Peter: thank you for the trust you placed us thank you great pleasure.