(0:00) 好哥们介绍：核心四人组回归

Jason: Did you guys see this uh White House video?

Jason: 你们看到那个白宫的视频了吗？

Sacks: Oh, is there a White House video? I honestly think that was the funniest post by a White House ever was the Daddy's Home video.

Sacks: 哦，有白宫的视频？老实说，我觉得那是白宫有史以来最搞笑的帖子，就是那个“老爸回来了”（Daddy's Home）的视频。

Jason: I feel like popping bottles to this. Come on now. Up in the club. Oh, in the VIP popping bottle with the rainman. Let's buy two bottles of that all in tequila. If we get a double.

Jason: 我感觉要为此开香槟庆祝了。来吧，在俱乐部里。哦，在VIP包厢和“雨人”一起开香槟。我们买两瓶All-In龙舌兰酒，要是能来个双份的话。

Sacks: That is the best. The backstory to that is that Mark Rutte, who's the secretary general of NATO, called Trump daddy at the

Sacks: 那太棒了。这背后的故事是，北约（NATO：North Atlantic Treaty Organization，北大西洋公约组织）秘书长马克·吕特（Mark Rutte）在峰会上称呼特朗普为“老爸”。

Jason: Yeah, he called him daddy. Guy got weird. Ragg, you missed it. We were just up in the club. You want to go back to the club for a second?

Jason: 是的，他叫他“老爸”。那家伙有点奇怪。Ragg（对Friedberg的昵称），你错过了，我们刚才正在嗨。想再回俱乐部一下吗？

Friedberg: I do. I love the club.

Friedberg: 当然，我爱俱乐部。

Jason: You ready? Popping some bottles with the NATO summit. We're doing it again. Come on, Freeberg. Let me see you stand up, Freeberg. your Sultan of science. What club are we going to this weekend? Oh, daddy's home. We are going to bring the club to us.

Jason: 准备好了吗？和北约峰会一起开香槟。我们再来一次。来吧，Friedberg。让我看看你站起来，Friedberg，你这个科学界的苏丹。我们这周末去哪个俱乐部？哦，“老爸回来了”。我们要把俱乐部带到我们身边。

Sacks: I think it's called Club NATO.

Sacks: 我想那应该叫“北约俱乐部”。

Jason: ...All right everybody, welcome back to the number one podcast in the world. The AllIn podcast, your favorite podcast. We're back. We got the original quartet here and everybody's really excited because we had a fun time on Saturday night. What a party we had at Delilah. All four besties there. Step and repeat. Freeberg, you lost a bunch of money playing bomb pots with me and Rob Goldberg. You drank a lot. You looked great. Your impressions of this evening.

Jason: ...好了各位，欢迎回到世界第一播客，All-In播客，你们最爱的播客。我们回来了，最初的四人组都在这里，大家都很兴奋，因为我们周六晚上玩得很开心。我们在Delilah办了个多棒的派对。四个好哥们都在，红毯拍照。Friedberg，你和我和Rob Goldberg玩“炸弹底池”（Bomb pots：德州扑克的一种变体，每位玩家在翻牌前投入固定赌注，直接看翻牌）输了不少钱。你喝了很多，看起来状态很棒。谈谈你对当晚的印象。

(1:38) All-In龙舌兰酒发布

Friedberg: Oh, I loved it. It was great. I think the tequila turned out fantastic. This tequila has been I mean you guys realize when we first started talking about this this was like two and a half almost three years ago when we first started talking about this and it is finally here. It took forever to get through this uh this kind of design development process but man I think it turned out great. I thought it was awesome.

Friedberg: 哦，我太喜欢了，非常棒。我觉得这款龙舌兰酒成品非常出色。这款酒……我是说，你们意识到吗，我们第一次谈论这个大概是两年半，快三年前了，现在它终于面世了。经历了漫长的设计和开发过程，但天啊，我觉得结果太棒了，太赞了。

Sacks: Everybody at the party was surprised by how good it was cuz they thought that I don't know, we were just doing this as a gimmick or something, but we actually put in the time to make it great.

Sacks: 派对上的每个人都对它的品质感到惊讶，因为他们可能觉得我们只是在搞个噱头之类的，但我们实际上投入了大量时间把它做好。

Jason: A lot of time. A lot of time. So, talk a little bit about the sourcing cuz I think that that sourcing was very important.

Jason: 很多时间，确实很多时间。那么，谈谈它的原料来源吧，因为我认为原料来源非常重要。

Sacks: Well, we went down to Tequila, Mexico. There's only one part of Mexico that's even allowed to be called uh tequila. And we found a distillery that had been aging some agave in American oak whiskey barrels for 5 years. And normally extra añejo is aged for 3 years. So it was pretty rare to find a cache of 5-year aged. And so we basically bought it all. But there's only enough for 7500 bottles. So that's what we did. But you know, this is not about creating some large new tequila label. This is more about creating something that we ourselves like and that's what we did.

Sacks: 好的，我们去了墨西哥的特基拉镇（Tequila）。墨西哥只有一个地区生产的酒才能被称为龙舌兰酒。我们在那里找到了一家酒厂，他们用美国橡木威士忌桶陈酿了一批龙舌兰达5年之久。通常情况下，超陈年龙舌兰酒（Extra Añejo）只需要陈酿3年。所以能找到一批陈酿5年的存货非常难得。我们基本上把它全买下来了。但只够装7500瓶。我们就是这么做的。但这并不是为了创造一个什么大型龙舌兰新品牌，更多的是为了创造一款我们自己喜欢的东西，我们也做到了。

Jason: Sort of a small batch product. I mean, the money is not going to change anyone's life, you know, except maybe yours.

Jason: 算是一款小批量产品。我的意思是，这钱改变不了任何人的生活，你知道，除了可能改变你的。

Sacks: But I don't know. Uber hit another record today. So, with Uber past 88, you guys are all I don't need to be here anymore.

Sacks: 但我不知道。Uber今天又创新高了。所以，Uber股价过了88美元，你们都不再需要我了。

Jason: Oh my god. But look, we do things because they're fun. And it was fun to create this. Here, I've got the... It is fun. It was really fun.

Jason: 我的天。但听着，我们做这些事是因为有趣。创造这个产品很有趣。看，我这有……是的，很有趣，真的很有趣。

Sacks: Well, look at this thing. I mean, beautiful box. slides open. It's back lit in the box. So cool. So that out of the box experience is just amazing.

Sacks: 看看这个东西。我的意思是，漂亮的盒子，可以滑动打开。盒子里还有背光。太酷了。所以那个开箱体验（Unboxing：指打开新产品包装并展示的过程）简直太棒了。

Jason: Yeah, it's a great unboxing. Steve Jobs would be proud. Tell us about the bottle design. That was a lot of work, Sachs. I think this probably took an extra 6 months to get this right if I'm if I'm recalling correctly on the schedule.

Jason: 是的，很棒的开箱体验。史蒂夫·乔布斯会感到骄傲的。跟我们讲讲瓶身设计吧。那花了很多功夫，Sacks。如果我没记错日程的话，这大概多花了6个月才搞定。

Sacks: This is super complicated to execute. Well, the bottle is designed after a stack of poker chips. And so you can see the chips are stacked and they're a jar. So, it's like highly it's a lot of texture here. It's made with glass and then there's these black chip accents that are actually painted onto the bottle perfectly. So, this took a lot to get right. We went through a lot of prototypes to get this and it just looks amazing.

Sacks: 这个执行起来超级复杂。瓶身的设计灵感来自一叠扑克筹码。你可以看到筹码堆叠在一起，并且有些错位。所以这里有很强的纹理感。它是玻璃做的，然后这些黑色的筹码装饰是完美地手绘在瓶子上的。所以，要把它做对花了很多功夫。我们经历了很多原型才最终定稿，它看起来真的太棒了。

Jason: All right, there you have it, folks. The All-In Tequila as promised. It's finally available on our website. So, if you go to tequila.allin.com, you can now buy it. There's only 7,500 bottles. I think we're only going to sell 6,000 because we're going to keep the rest for our own personal stuff. We sold a good chunk already. Like I think we're So they're going really fast. We just opened up the website. Previously, they were only available to people who had attended the All-in Summit. They could pre-order it and reserve, but now the website is open. ...Okay, there you go. Order your bottle, limit to two, and uh go ahead. This is, you know, this is not a a cheap product, but you know, if you look at the the pure competitor for this product is the Clase Azul Ultra, which I think sells at $1,700 a bottle, although sometimes I've seen it sell for as much as 3,000 a bottle. So, we're priced competitively with that.

Jason: 好了，各位，就是这个了。如约而至的All-In龙舌兰酒。它终于在我们的网站上发售了。如果你访问 tequila.allin.com，现在就可以购买。总共只有7500瓶。我想我们可能只卖6000瓶，因为剩下的要留作我们自己用。我们已经卖掉了一大部分，卖得非常快。我们刚刚开放网站。之前，只有参加过All-In峰会的人才能预订和保留，但现在网站已经开放了。...好的，就是这样。去下单吧，每人限购两瓶。这产品不便宜，但如果你看看它的直接竞品——Clase Azul Ultra，我记得售价是每瓶1700美元，有时我甚至见过卖到3000美元一瓶。所以我们的定价是很有竞争力的。

(7:01) 美国斡旋伊朗/以色列停火：对地区未来的影响

Jason: ...We'll shift from conspicuous consumption and talk about the 12-day war between Israel and Iran. It's two weeks later, obviously a quick recap here and then we'll get the besties take on where we're at today, June 26 when we tape this. Friday, June 13th, Israel launched a surprise attack, took out a bunch of uh Iranian military officials, some folks who work on the nuclear program and they traded missiles for about a week before everybody debating if this was going to be World War III. And on Saturday, June 21st, quite shockingly, the US jumped in and carried out Operation Midnight Hammer. ...over a dozen bunker buster bombs on two, maybe three of Iran's key nuclear facilities, Fordo and Natanz. These bombs weigh 15 tons each. They'll go deep underground. Israel doesn't have them. And that's the reason we're given of why we were pulled into this is because we're the only people in the world who could have taken these out. On Thursday morning, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, showed a video. If you haven't seen it, folks, this came out this morning. Here's the video. It's a video of a of of what they call a massive ordnance penetrator. ...And then, shockingly, Iran did a um a I don't know what you'd call this, a ceremonial response sacks, where they send some missiles to one of our bases in Qatar. They gave us a ton of notice. None of them landed. And then uh both countries have been bombing each other a little bit after Trump said he negotiated a ceasefire which made our president a little bit upset. Here's the clip of the president not dropping a MOAB but dropping an F-bomb.

Jason: ...我们从炫耀性消费转移到正题，谈谈以色列和伊朗之间持续12天的战争。两周过去了，我们先快速回顾一下，然后听听好哥们对今天（6月26日录制时）局势的看法。6月13日周五，以色列发动突袭，消灭了一批伊朗军方官员和一些从事核项目的人员。随后双方导弹你来我往大约一周，所有人都开始讨论这是否会演变成第三次世界大战。然后在6月21日周六，令人震惊的是，美国介入并执行了“午夜铁锤”行动。…向伊朗的两到三个关键核设施——福尔多（Fordo）和纳坦兹（Natanz）——投下了十几枚“地堡炸弹”。这些炸弹每枚重达15吨，能钻入地下深处。以色列没有这种武器。我们被告知，我们之所以被卷入，是因为我们是世界上唯一能摧毁这些设施的国家。周四早上，参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩展示了一段视频。如果你还没看过，这是今天早上发布的。视频展示了一种被称为“巨型钻地弹”的武器。...然后，令人震惊的是，伊朗进行了一次，我不知道该怎么称呼，Sacks，一次“仪式性”的回应，他们向我们在卡塔尔的一个基地发射了一些导弹。他们提前给了我们大量通知，没有一枚命中。然后，在特朗普宣布他斡旋了停火之后，两国又互相轰炸了一番，这让我们的总统有点不高兴。这是总统没有投下巨型炸弹（MOAB），而是投下“F-炸弹”（F-bomb，即粗口）的片段。

Trump: Israel. As soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs the likes of which I've never seen before. The biggest load that we've seen. I'm not happy with Israel. You know, when when I say, "Okay, now you have 12 hours. You don't go out in the first hour and just drop everything you have on them. So, I'm not happy with them. I'm not happy with Iran either. We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the [ __ ] they're doing. Do you understand that?

特朗普: 以色列。我们刚达成协议，他们就出来扔了一大堆我从未见过的炸弹。是我们见过的最大的一批。我对以色列不满意。你知道，当我说，“好了，现在你们有12个小时。”你不能在第一个小时就把所有东西都扔到他们头上。所以，我对他们不满意。我对伊朗也不满意。我们基本上有两个国家，打了这么久，这么狠，他们都不知道自己在干什么。你明白吗？

Jason: You had Trump is not happy he did the lean in. Did you notice the lean in there, Saxs, when he dropped the f-bomb?

Jason: 特朗普不高兴，他还身体前倾了。Sacks，你注意到他爆粗口时那个前倾的动作了吗？

Sacks: Well, in in fairness, President Trump's not the first president to drop an F-bomb in frustration with Netanyahu. It was reported back in the '90s that Bill Clinton, when he had to deal with Netanyahu as being very obsinate and was basically rejecting all of Clinton's entreaties and plans, Clinton is reported to have said, "Who's the [ __ ] superpower here?" you know, in frustration. ...President Trump negotiated the ceasefire which was extraordinary and then he's willing to reprimand Israel for basically violating the ceasefire too which you have to do if you want to enforce it. So I think that's basically what happened there.

Sacks: 嗯，公平地说，特朗普总统不是第一个因对内塔尼亚胡感到沮丧而爆粗口的总统。据报道，早在90年代，比尔·克林顿在面对非常固执的内塔尼亚胡，并且他基本拒绝了克林顿所有的请求和计划时，克林顿据说沮丧地说道：“这里到底谁是超级大国？”…特朗普总统斡旋了停火，这非同寻常，然后他还愿意就以色列基本违反停火协议而谴责它，如果你想执行协议，这是必须做的。所以我认为，这基本上就是当时发生的情况。

Jason: Now you sax I'm sure the audience wants to challenge you on this. You were hey Trump is a never get involved in forever wars. Obviously it looks like this might not be a forever war which would be fantastic if that turns out to be the case. and um you were saying, "Hey, the reason to vote for Trump is he won't get us into another war and here we go." Uh and obviously Tucker, Tulsi, there's a number of people who are did not want to do this and you were one of them. So, how do you reconcile all of this as somebody who did not want to see us do this?

Jason: Sacks，现在我敢肯定观众想就此挑战你。你曾说，“嘿，特朗普绝不会卷入永久战争。”显然，这次看起来可能不是一场永久战争，如果真是这样就太好了。而你曾说，“嘿，投票给特朗普的理由就是他不会让我们卷入另一场战争，结果现在就这样了。”显然，塔克、图尔西等很多人都不希望发生这种事，你也是其中之一。那么，作为一个不希望看到我们这么做的人，你如何调和这一切？

Sacks: President Trump accomplished that. We're not in a forever war. We're not in a war with Iran. You look at Mark Levin today, he's apoplelectic because he and people like him were advocating for a regime change war and they felt like this was the perfect opportunity to drag the United States into such a war and President Trump resisted that and instead negotiated a ceasefire. So it seems to me that he lived up to exactly his promises on this. Look, I think President Trump had to thread a very difficult needle here. If you look at polling, the vast majorities of the American population believe in two things. Number one, they don't want Iran getting a nuclear weapon by like 80 something%. They also by 80 something% don't want to get dragged into a new forever war in the Middle East, right? ...President Trump managed to accomplish both those objectives. He took out the Iranian nuclear sites in these highly precise targeted strikes, but he did not get dragged into a new Middle Eastern war. In fact, he negotiated a ceasefire and at least an end to the war right now between Israel and Iran.

Sacks: 特朗普总统做到了。我们没有陷入永久战争。我们没有与伊朗开战。你看看今天的马克·莱文（Mark Levin），他气得快中风了，因为他和他那样的人一直主张一场旨在政权更迭的战争，他们觉得这是将美国拖入这样一场战争的绝佳机会，但特朗普总统抵制了这种想法，反而斡旋了停火。所以在我看来，他完全兑现了在这方面的承诺。听着，我认为特朗普总统在这里必须走一根非常难走的钢丝。如果你看民意调查，绝大多数美国民众相信两件事。第一，他们不希望伊朗拥有核武器，支持率高达80%多。第二，他们同样以80%多的比例不希望被拖入中东新的永久战争，对吧？…特朗普总统成功实现了这两个目标。他通过这些高度精确的定点打击摧毁了伊朗的核设施，但他没有被拖入一场新的中东战争。事实上，他斡旋了停火，至少目前结束了以色列和伊朗之间的战争。

Chamath: Can I uplevel this slightly? I think that this has been probably the most important week and I would almost say most important few months in US politics in 30 or 40 years. And the reason is that it starts to converge a bunch of things together that I think are really worth putting on the table. So from my perspective, I think what President Trump has done is almost single-handedly bring back the United States as the global superpower. And I would put that in all caps. So what does it mean to be a superpower? ...The first is that you need to have technical supremacy. And then from that technological supremacy, you need to establish and project economic supremacy and military supremacy. So if you look at the first one, you saw a tactical demonstration of technological supremacy with the B-2 bombers. But taking a more general step back, if you look at the largest companies in the world, who are the ones that are actually driving the world forward, these are all American companies. I think these last few months you've seen America firing on all cylinders technologically economically. ...And then these last few weeks, frankly, have been a pretty clear-cut case of military supremacy. And so I think what's pretty simple now is like the US is essentially telling the world our words carry weight again. We're going to shape the global order. ...It's a really important moment, I think, in American history. I really do think that if you look at my little framework, it is the closest thing for us to being able to say that we are truly a clearcut singular hegeimon global superpower again. And that's really exciting.

Chamath: 我能稍微提升一下讨论的层次吗？我认为这可能是过去30、40年里美国政治中最重要的一周，甚至是最重要的几个月。原因是，它开始将一系列事情融合在一起，我认为这些都非常值得我们拿出来讨论。从我的角度看，我认为特朗普总统所做的，几乎是单枪匹马地让美国重回全球超级大国的地位。我会把“全球超级大国”用大写字母标出。那么，成为超级大国意味着什么？…首先，你需要拥有技术霸权。然后，基于这种技术霸权，你需要建立并投射经济霸权和军事霸权。所以，如果你看第一点，你通过B-2轰炸机看到了技术霸权的战术性展示。但从更宏观的层面退一步看，如果你看看世界上最大的公司，那些真正在推动世界前进的公司，它们都是美国公司。我认为过去这几个月，你已经看到美国在技术和经济上全速前进。…然后，坦白说，过去这几周，是一个非常明确的军事霸权的案例。所以我认为现在很简单，美国基本上在告诉世界，我们的话语再次有了分量。我们将塑造全球秩序。…我认为，这在美国历史上是一个非常重要的时刻。我真的认为，如果你看我的那个小框架，这是我们最接近能够宣称自己再次成为一个真正明确的、单一的全球霸主（Hegemon）的时刻。这真的很令人兴奋。

Friedberg: Um I don't know if this is over... And I do think that the next set of actions is going to be critical. But what I was pretty surprised by, I did not like everyone was saying, "Hey, we're on the brink of World War III." I mean, there was some serious statesmanship that must have gone on to keep China... I've got to imagine there were calls to China and Russia that kept them in the loop and kept them in play on how this all played out. because China and Russia, the whole fear was this was going to create this magnet in the Middle East that everything was going to rush in and we're going to catalyze World War III and it didn't happen. So, I do think that, you know, first of all, nothing that folks predicted actually happened and no one predicted what did happen. ...I can tell you I don't think the Israelis are going to sit by quietly and allow this Iranian regime to continue to go out and build up a military that's constantly shouting death to Israel, death to the USA. And I think that they've taken their first shot and I don't think it's their last.

Friedberg: 嗯，我不知道这事是否已经结束了……我确实认为接下来的行动至关重要。但我很惊讶的是，我并不像所有人那样说，“嘿，我们正处于第三次世界大战的边缘。”我的意思是，背后一定有非常高超的外交手腕才让中国保持了克制……我只能想象，一定有电话打给了中国和俄罗斯，让他们了解情况，并在整个事件的发展中让他们参与进来。因为对中国和俄罗斯来说，整个恐惧在于这会在中东形成一个磁场，所有势力都会涌入，从而催化第三次世界大战，但这一切并没有发生。所以我确实认为，首先，人们预测的事情都没有发生，而发生的事情也没有人预测到。…我可以告诉你，我不认为以色列人会静静地坐着，允许这个伊朗政权继续发展其军事力量，并不断高喊“以色列去死，美国去死”。我认为他们已经打了第一枪，而且我不认为这是最后一枪。

(39:58) 民主社会主义者在纽约市市长民主党初选中获胜

Jason: ...let's um get on to this Democratic socialist who's on the verge of becoming New York City's mayor, little-known New York State Assemblyman, Zohran Mamdani, took the internet by storm this week. Shocked the world, beating out Andrew Cuomo for the Democratic nomination. ...He wants to have free buses. Doesn't sound like that big of a deal. He wants to freeze rent and triple the development of affordable housing. City-owned government grocery stores. That sounds crazy. a $30 minimum wage. New York's at $16.50, by the way. Uh he wants to defund the police, replace the cops with social workers in high crime areas. A bunch of really wacky, interesting proposals. And uh you were, I think, on to this early. Friedberg, in your predictions last year, you saw this coming.

Jason: ...我们来谈谈这位即将成为纽约市市长的民主社会主义者。名不见经传的纽约州议员佐兰·马姆达尼（Zohran Mamdani）本周在互联网上掀起风暴。他击败了安德鲁·科莫（Andrew Cuomo），赢得了民主党提名，震惊了世界。...他想推行免费公交，这听起来不算什么大事。他想冻结租金，并将经济适用房的开发量增加两倍。市政府拥有的国营杂货店，这听起来很疯狂。30美元的最低时薪，顺便说一句，纽约现在是16.50美元。他想削减警察经费（Defund the police），在高犯罪率地区用社工取代警察。提出了一系列非常古怪、有趣的主张。Friedberg，我想你去年很早就预见到了这一点，在你的预测中，你看到了这个趋势。

Friedberg: For me, it feels like actually a little bit of a beginning of a wave that's going to continue to sweep over this country starting in cities. ...I do think that this is a broad kind of reaction to the economic condition of the United States. And I've talked a lot of people don't quite recognize and see how important the debt and the deficit is with respect to how it's ultimately going to lead to socialism as it has every single time in history when you've had a free voting democracy, a representative democracy that becomes encumbered with too much debt. ...The average debt for these individuals is sitting around $60,000. So you're a young person. Where do those young people go? ...They live in cities. ...And what we're seeing in those cities is a massive political shift. People call it left, but it's actually quite different than just being more traditionally left. It's really a revolution against the system that brought them to this moment because the promise that we gave in America, the American dream was if you will go to college, you will graduate, you will have income, you will have stability, you will be able to buy a home.

Friedberg: 对我来说，这感觉实际上像是一场将从城市开始，并持续席卷全国的浪潮的开端。...我确实认为，这是对美国经济状况的广泛反应。我谈过很多次，人们没有完全认识到债务和赤字的重要性，以及它最终将如何导向社会主义——这在历史上每一次自由投票的代议制民主国家背负过多债务时都发生过。...这些年轻人的平均债务在6万美元左右。所以你是一个年轻人，这些年轻人去哪里？…他们住在城市里。…我们在这些城市看到的，是一场巨大的政治转变。人们称之为左翼，但它实际上与传统的左翼有很大不同。这其实是一场针对将他们带到这一刻的体制的革命。因为我们在美国给予的承诺，即“美国梦”，是如果你去上大学，毕业后你就会有收入，有稳定，能够买房。

Sacks: ...I think there's one other thing going on here which is beyond just sort of the lack of skin of the game here which is the failure of the Democratic establishment. It's basically completely antiquated, desiccated and out of touch. And who was Mamdani running against? Andrew Cuomo who is really a perfect avatar for this establishment. He's a retread. He's been around for decades... He's 67, which is something of a spring chicken by the standards of Democrat gerontocracy, but he's twice the age of Mamdani, who's 33. And Cuomo hasn't even lived in New York City for three decades. ...He's a Nepo baby too, right? So, you know, does this sound familiar? I mean, this is exactly what happened with Biden... Look, the Democratic party right now is the Democratic establishment is in the process of being remade now the way that the Republican establishment was remade a decade ago.

Sacks: ...我认为这里还有另一件事在发生，不仅仅是缺乏利害关系，而是民主党建制派的失败。它基本上完全过时、僵化和脱离实际。马姆达尼的竞选对手是谁？安德鲁·科莫，他简直是这个建制派的完美化身。他是个老面孔，活跃了几十年…他67岁了，按照民主党老人政治（Gerontocracy：由老年人统治的政治体系）的标准算是个小年轻了，但他的年龄是33岁的马姆达尼的两倍。而且科莫已经有三十年没在纽约市住过了。...他也是个“裙带关系下的受益者”（Nepo baby），对吧？所以，这听起来熟悉吗？我的意思是，这和拜登的情况一模一样…听着，现在的民主党，其建制派正在被重塑，就像十年前共和党建制派被重塑一样。

Chamath: I think the three of you guys are a little exaggerated to be quite honest. I mean, all the rhetoric sounds very clever, but I don't think it's accurate. I think the way that I see it is more nuanced than this. I think what's happened is that Zohran Mamdani is very smart and is running a playbook to win like all politicians do based on a formula that has been winning in large cities for the past decade. And so I don't know if he really believes in this rhetoric or not, but it's worth noting that most of his platform is copied and pasted from London and Chicago. ...So my my point is it just doesn't work. So you can win. It actually isn't very effective and it doesn't scale to the national level.

Chamath: 老实说，我觉得你们三位有点夸张了。我是说，所有的言辞听起来都很巧妙，但我不认为它们是准确的。我认为我看到的情况比这更微妙。我认为发生的是，佐兰·马姆达尼非常聪明，他正在运用一套在大城市过去十年里一直行之有效的制胜策略，就像所有政客一样。所以我不知道他是否真的相信这些言辞，但值得注意的是，他的大部分政纲都是从伦敦和芝加哥复制粘贴过来的。…所以我的观点是，它就是行不通。所以你可以赢，但实际上它不是很有效，而且无法扩展到国家层面。

(1:06:02) 科学角：来自中国的干细胞驱动的年龄逆转研究

Friedberg: As is the case with most cutting edge science nowadays, it is coming out of China, not out of the United States. So this research study was done on age reversal. We've talked about using these Yamanaka factors to change the epigenome of cells and make them youthful again. In this particular case, the study was done on engineering stem cells that were then placed into the bodies of monkeys and reverse the age of these monkeys on the order of what would be the equivalent in humans of several decades of age reversal. It's a pretty amazing and astounding result. ...they looked at 61 different tissues from 10 distinct systems in the uh the bodies of these monkeys after they received the stem cell treatment and uh 54% of the tissue examined showed reversal of age. ...And by the way, they saw no side effects.

Friedberg: 和现在大多数前沿科学一样，这项研究来自中国，而非美国。这是一项关于年龄逆转的研究。我们之前讨论过使用“山中因子”（Yamanaka factors：一组能够将成体细胞重编程为诱导性多能干细胞的蛋白质）来改变细胞的表观基因组（Epigenome：附着在DNA上的一组化学修饰，能调节基因的活性），使它们恢复年轻。在这个具体案例中，研究人员对干细胞（Stem cells）进行基因工程改造，然后将其植入猴子体内，实现了猴子年龄的逆转，其程度相当于人类逆转几十岁。这是一个相当惊人和了不起的结果。…在接受干细胞治疗后，他们检查了这些猴子体内10个不同系统的61种不同组织，发现54%的受检组织显示出年龄逆转的迹象。…顺便说一句，他们没有观察到任何副作用。

(1:18:09) 市场创历史新高：牛熊之辩与下任美联储主席人选

Jason: All right. The stock market is nearing a record high. In fact, Uber hit a record high today, just two months after the big uh Trump tariff chaos and the market going down 15 30%. We've had a full recovery from Trump's liberation day tariff announcement. ...Lots of different things are contributing to this. Obviously, you got the ceasefire in the Middle East. You've got the trade deals with UK and a truce with China. NASDAQ 100 is at an all-time high. You know, there's there's also with these tech companies the perfect storm. M&A is back on the menu. People are buying companies again. That equals growth. People are continuing to lay off the dead weight. So, you're having earnings rise. And then the product announcements coming out of big tech... this all equals though. However, big controversy Freedberg. What's the point of cutting rates if we're at an all-time high and uh employment is somewhat full?

Jason: 好的。股市正接近历史高点。事实上，Uber今天创下历史新高，而这距离特朗普关税风波和市场下跌15-30%仅两个月。我们已经从特朗普的“解放日”关税宣告中完全恢复。…很多因素促成了这一点。显然，有中东的停火，有与英国的贸易协议和与中国的休战。纳斯达克100指数创下历史新高。你知道，对于这些科技公司来说，这也是一场完美风暴。并购（M&A）又回来了，人们重新开始收购公司，这意味着增长。公司在继续裁减冗员，所以盈利在上升。然后是科技巨头们发布的新产品……这一切加起来。然而，Friedberg，这里有个大争议。如果我们处于历史高位，且就业相当充分，降息的意义何在？

Friedberg: I'm not sure that equity market prices going up is necessarily the best indicator of where we are because we did have negative GDP growth in Q1 arguably there was a lot of tariff blipping happening in Q1 one, but there's a real question on this GDP growth outlook for the rest of this year, and we're still running a modest inflation. When you combine those two, and you combine the government deficit right now, there's an argument to be made that we're actually seeing assets inflate, not necessarily. So, multiples are going up.

Friedberg: 我不确定股市价格上涨必然是衡量我们处境的最佳指标，因为我们在第一季度确实出现了负的GDP增长，当然第一季度有很多关税的短期影响，但今年剩余时间的GDP增长前景存在一个 реальный вопрос，而且我们仍在经历温和的通货膨胀。当你把这两者结合起来，再加上目前的政府赤字，有一种观点认为，我们实际上看到的是资产膨胀，而不一定是基本面的改善。所以，估值倍数在上升。

Chamath: Yeah. I mean, look, if I was a betting man, which I am, I think the the free money trade here is to be levered long, I think you can make a lot of money right now. Why is that? ...Look at how much money is sitting in money market funds. And what this starts to show you is you have trillions and trillions of dollars of dry powder on the sidelines that will need to find a home. I think that Jerome Powell is in an increasingly untenable situation because he will be looked at as politicizing the office of the Federal Reserve. There is enough data that can justify cutting rates. ...If we're at an all-time high today with rates at 4 and a.5% and Powell back against the wall to cut, the only road from here is probably up.

Chamath: 是的。我是说，看，如果我是个赌徒——而我确实是——我认为这里的“白捡钱”交易就是加杠杆做多，我觉得你现在能赚大钱。为什么？…看看有多少钱停留在货币市场基金里。这开始告诉你，有数万亿美元的“干火药”（Dry powder：指投资者手中可用于投资的现金储备）在场外等待寻找归宿。我认为杰罗姆·鲍威尔的处境越来越站不住脚，因为他将被视为将美联储主席的职位政治化。有足够的数据可以为降息提供理由。…如果我们今天在利率4.5%的情况下处于历史高位，而鲍威尔又面临降息的压力，那么未来的路可能只有向上。

Sacks: ...I think it's time for Powell to act and I think he's being overly cautious here. He's being slow here. Just like he was slow to raise at the beginning of the cycle, he's being slow to cut at the end of the cycle. And again, I think he's just afraid of being proven wrong here. But I think that the timing is right to start the cuts. Now to go back to the question of how do you trade this market? I mean I have a very simple idea which is anytime that the media tries to sow doom or spread panic about the Trump administration's policies that's a good time to buy.

Sacks: ...我认为鲍威尔是时候采取行动了，我觉得他在这里过于谨慎了。他行动迟缓。就像他在周期开始时加息迟缓一样，他在周期结束时降息也迟缓。再说一次，我认为他只是害怕被证明是错的。但我认为现在是开始降息的正确时机。现在回到如何交易这个市场的问题。我有一个非常简单的想法，那就是任何时候当媒体试图散播关于特朗普政府政策的末日论或恐慌时，那就是买入的好时机。

(1:32:49) AI版权：Anthropic和Meta获得有利裁决

Jason: ...This is a super important story. we talked about here. Anthropic received a favorable ruling in an AI copyright case. Bunch of caveats here. Federal judge out of San Francisco ruled Anthropic use of copyrighted books and AI training was legal if if the company had purchased or licensed the books through legal means. However, the ruling doesn't apply to more than 7 million books that Anthropic allegedly obtained through quote unquote pirated means. ...a day after this ruling, Microsoft was sued by a group of authors alleging it used a collection of over 200,000 pirated books uh in its Megatron AI model. ...I did a licensing deal. Harper's business did a deal or Harper's with Microsoft and I got paid 2500 bucks to license Angel for their model. ...Meta also prevailed against a group of notable authors, including Sarah Silverman.

Jason: ...这是一个非常重要的故事。我们在这里讨论过。Anthropic在一起AI版权案中获得了有利裁决。这里有几个附带条件。一位旧金山的联邦法官裁定，如果Anthropic公司是通过合法途径购买或许可了这些受版权保护的书籍，那么其在AI训练中使用这些书籍是合法的。然而，该裁决不适用于Anthropic据称通过所谓“盗版”手段获得的超过700万本书籍。…这项裁决公布一天后，一群作家起诉微软，指控其在其Megatron AI模型中使用了超过20万本盗版书籍的集合。…我做了一笔授权交易。哈珀商业（Harper's Business）或者哈珀出版社与微软达成了一项协议，我授权了我的书《天使投资》（Angel）给他们的模型使用，并获得了2500美元的报酬。…Meta也在与包括萨拉·西尔弗曼（Sarah Silverman）在内的一群知名作家的诉讼中获胜。

Sacks: ...This judge in the anthropic case, I mean, the the the reasoning that he gave was almost identical to what Freeberg and I were arguing Yeah. a year ago. And the distinction he made is between input and output. If an AI model outputs some text that is basically a ripoff of of someone else's uh copyright, then of course it's it's guilty of copyright violation. But in the inputs or pre-training is something different. ...This judge said that that is not a violation of copyright. I completely agree with that. One other point, one other distinction this judge made that I think is very important is the difference between pirating and copyright. What the judge said is, "Look, you have to buy the book if you're going to basically do pre-training on it. You can't rip it off. That would be piracy, but that's different than copyright."

Sacks: ...这位审理Anthropic案的法官，他给出的理由几乎和一年前我和Friedberg的论点一模一样。他做出的区分是“输入”和“输出”。如果一个AI模型输出的文本基本上是抄袭了他人的版权作品，那么它当然构成了版权侵犯。但“输入”或预训练是另一回事。…这位法官说，那不构成版权侵犯。我完全同意。这位法官还做出了另一个我认为非常重要的区分，那就是“盗版”和“版权”的区别。法官说，“听着，如果你要用一本书进行预训练，你必须购买这本书。你不能盗版它。那是盗版行为，但这与版权侵犯是不同的。”

Jason: ...I'm going to explain two things. is one how you can win this case as a content company and then two I'm going to give uh how the large language models can importantly win the AI race and actually not destroy the business on which they are built on. These language models have nothing without the content creators and the authors of these books of which I am one. They need us and so they should want to pay us. ...So, here's how you win if you're a publisher. Uh, all you have to do is Disney, which is suing um MidJourney right now for obvious copyright violations on the output in my interpretation. All you have to do is do a a Marvel Me, make yourself into a Marvel character, Disney me, or choose your own adventure Star Wars, and allow consumers to pay for that product. ...When they do that, then all of the output will need to uh be scrubbed or contained in some way. ...Then the second piece that'll make this tenable is you know Chat GPT is making $10 billion a year according to reports. They should give 30% of their revenue a small amount the minority of their revenue to the top 10,000 newspapers, publications, podcasts, books, etc. And they should do that programmatically.

Jason: ...我来解释两件事。一，作为内容公司如何打赢这类官司；二，大型语言模型如何能够在赢得AI竞赛的同时，不摧毁它们赖以生存的商业基础。没有内容创作者和像我这样的书籍作者，这些语言模型一无是处。它们需要我们，所以它们应该愿意付钱给我们。…所以，如果你是出版商，这样就能赢。你只需要像迪士尼那样——它现在正因明显的输出端版权侵犯起诉MidJourney——你只需要做一个“漫威化自己”的功能，把自己变成漫威角色，或者“迪士尼化自己”，或者一个“星球大战”的自选冒险故事，并让消费者为该产品付费。…当他们这样做时，所有的输出就需要以某种方式被清理或限制。…然后，让这一切可行的第二步是，你知道，据报道ChatGPT每年赚100亿美元。他们应该把收入的30%，一小部分，他们收入的少数部分，分配给排名前10000的报纸、出版物、播客、书籍等。而且他们应该以程序化的方式来做这件事。

Sacks: This is all a very and then somehow when you feed that into a neural net with billions and billions of documents, it somehow has an understanding and produces new content and that new content is not a copyright violation. So I just think that like copyright's the wrong way to look at this. This is a new technology. is transformational. And then finally, we have the national security concern.

Sacks: 这都是非常……然后当你把这些输入一个拥有数十亿文档的神经网络时，它不知何故就有了理解力，并能产生新的内容，而这些新内容并不构成版权侵犯。所以我只是认为，用版权的视角来看待这个问题是错误的。这是一种新技术，是变革性的。最后，我们还有国家安全方面的担忧。