美中贸易紧张局势重燃

Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. 欢迎收听《亚洲破晓》播客。

I'm Doug Krer. 我是道格·克雷尔。

Some renewed tension today in the US China relationship. 今天，美中关系再次出现一些紧张。

It was early on Tuesday that China sanctioned five US units of the South Korean shipping firm Hana Ocean Company. 周二早些时候，中国制裁 (Sanctioned: 对特定实体或个人施加限制性措施)了韩国航运公司韩进海运（Hana Ocean Company）的五家美国子公司。

And at the same time, Beijing threatened more retaliation. 与此同时，北京威胁将采取更多报复措施。

Then later in the day, we heard from US trade rep Jameson Greer. 当天晚些时候，我们听到了美国贸易代表 (US Trade Rep: 负责制定和执行美国贸易政策的政府官员)詹姆森·格里尔（Jameson Greer）的讲话。

He told CNBC President Trump was still set to meet with Chinese President Xi at the end of the month. 他告诉消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC），特朗普总统仍计划在本月底与中国国家主席习近平会面。

Jameson Greer: Right now, there is a plan. 詹姆森·格里尔: 现在，确实有一个计划。

There's a scheduled time for that. 为此安排了时间。

It's on the schedule. 它在日程表上。

There's a scheduled time for that. 为此安排了时间。

Whether it'll go through or not, I don't want to pre-commit either ourselves or the Chinese. 至于是否会进行，我不想预先承诺我们自己或中方。

But I think it makes sense for people to talk when they can. 但我认为，人们能在可能的情况下进行对话是合理的。

So Jameson Greer's remarks helped provide a little bit of hope for negotiation. 因此，詹姆森·格里尔的言论为谈判带来了一线希望。

But then near the close of US trading, President Trump said the US might stop trade in cooking oil with China. 但在美国股市收盘前，特朗普总统表示美国可能会停止与中国的食用油贸易。

And he framed this potential move as retaliation against Beijing for its refusal to buy American soybeans. 他将这一潜在举动视为对北京拒绝购买美国大豆的报复。

For a closer look now at the state of US China trade, I'm joined by Sandra Schwarzki. 现在，为了更深入地了解美中贸易现状，我请到了桑德拉·施瓦茨基（Sandra Schwarzki）。

She is the founder and CEO of the advisory firm Integer. 她是咨询公司Integer的创始人兼首席执行官。

She joins us from Washington, DC. 她从华盛顿特区加入我们。

Sandra, thank you so much for making time to chat with me. 桑德拉，非常感谢你抽出时间与我交谈。

Do you have a sense of where we are in this process of the US and China attempting to reach some type of workable path forward? 你觉得美中两国在寻求某种可行前进道路的过程中，我们目前处于什么阶段？

美中贸易冲突与策略

Sandra Schwarzki: Well, thanks for having me on. 桑德拉·施瓦茨基: 谢谢邀请我。

I think it's safe to say that both China and the US have plenty of balls that they can put in the air, and they're increasingly doing that from tariffs to export controls on key rare earth minerals in the case of China and key semiconductors in the case of the US to agricultural products. 我认为可以肯定地说，中国和美国都有很多牌可以打，而且他们正越来越多地这样做，从关税 (Tariffs: 对进口商品征收的税费)到出口管制 (Export Controls: 政府限制某些商品、技术或服务出口的措施)，比如中国对关键稀土矿物 (Rare Earth Minerals: 一组具有独特磁性、发光和电化学性质的金属元素，广泛应用于高科技产品)的控制，以及美国对关键半导体 (Semiconductors: 介于导体和绝缘体之间的材料，是电子设备的核心组件)的控制，再到农产品。

And it appears that both sides in anticipation in the leadup to what are supposed to be trade talks later this month, both sides are throwing everything they have at each other to try to gain some leverage at these talks. 看来，在预计本月晚些时候举行的贸易谈判之前，双方都在竭尽全力相互施压，试图在谈判中争取一些筹码。

So one could look at this really as posturing. 所以，这真的可以看作是一种姿态。

But it is very unsettling given these two superpowers. 但考虑到这两个超级大国，这确实非常令人不安。

Bloomberg: It certainly has helped to contribute to a lot of volatility in markets. 彭博: 这无疑加剧了市场的剧烈波动。

That's for sure. 这是肯定的。

Moments ago, we learned that Apple is preparing to expand its manufacturing operations in Vietnam. 刚才，我们得知苹果公司正准备扩大其在越南的制造业务。

It's part of a push on the part of Apple to lessen its dependence on China. 这是苹果减少对中国依赖的一部分努力。

This is something the company's been pretty transparent about in the past, and for years we've seemed to kind of attempt to focus on this issue of decoupling between the US and China. 该公司过去对此一直相当透明，多年来我们似乎一直试图关注美中之间的脱钩 (Decoupling: 经济或技术上减少相互依赖)问题。

It seems that that's inevitable, right? 这似乎是不可避免的，对吗？

That these two very large economies, the largest in the world, are going to begin to become less dependent on one another. 这两个全球最大的经济体将开始减少对彼此的依赖。

Sandra Schwarzki: I think it makes complete sense. 桑德拉·施瓦茨基: 我认为这完全合理。

They're looking for other supply chains because the US is a supply chain to China and vice versa. 他们正在寻找其他供应链，因为美国是中国的供应链，反之亦然。

It just isn't working. 这行不通了。

And so just like Apple, the US and China are looking for other countries to supply the raw materials, the goods that they need so that they can continue to advance these super technologies that are going to revolutionize our day-to-day lives. 因此，就像苹果公司一样，美国和中国正在寻找其他国家来供应他们所需的原材料和商品，以便他们能够继续推进这些将彻底改变我们日常生活的超级技术。

I think recently I saw that Australia has ramped up its production of rare earth minerals which is increasingly important to the US and to all of our advanced technologies. 我记得最近看到澳大利亚已经增加了稀土矿物的生产，这对于美国和我们所有先进技术来说都越来越重要。

But even with them ramping up, it is hardly going to replace what we're buying from China. 但即使他们增加了产量，也几乎无法取代我们从中国购买的产品。

So lately, as a part of this tit for tat, President Trump threatened new tariffs of 100% on Chinese goods that would be imported by the United States. 因此，最近作为这种针锋相对的一部分，特朗普总统威胁对美国将进口的中国商品征收100%的新关税。

There are already a number of tariffs in place. 目前已经实施了一些关税。

And one of the things that the markets have been wrestling with is whether or not these tariffs are going to produce much higher inflation. 市场一直在努力解决的问题之一是，这些关税是否会导致更高的通货膨胀 (Inflation: 货币购买力下降导致物价普遍上涨的现象)。

Now, we really haven't seen much of that. 目前，我们确实没有看到太多这样的情况。

Although there is the suggestion that inflation expectations on the part of consumers are beginning to rise. 尽管有迹象表明消费者的通胀预期开始上升。

How do you feel about the way in which these tariffs potentially have the ability to contribute to a higher rate of inflation in the US? 你如何看待这些关税可能导致美国通胀率上升的方式？

关税与通货膨胀的传导效应

Sandra Schwarzki: Well, that's a great question. 桑德拉·施瓦茨基: 嗯，这是一个很好的问题。

I think that when tariffs started to go north back in the spring, there was a lot of concern that consumers were going to feel the pinch almost immediately. 我认为，当关税在春季开始上升时，人们普遍担心消费者会立即感受到压力。

And what we saw was that June came, July, August, and the inflation rate, the pain point for consumers just wasn't there. 而我们看到的是，六月、七月、八月过去了，通货膨胀率，也就是消费者的痛点，并没有出现。

And in large part, it's because businesses weren't passing along the tariffs to consumers. 这很大程度上是因为企业没有将关税转嫁给消费者。

They didn't want to lock out their customers, and so they ate those tariffs. 他们不想失去客户，所以他们承担了这些关税。

At this point, tariffs are becoming so high, and companies and businesses are not able to continue to eat those extra costs. 目前，关税变得如此之高，公司和企业已无法继续承担这些额外成本。

The concern now is that we are going to see higher prices because of those tariffs hitting consumers right when we start to head into the holiday season when the store shelves are packed with all the goodies that we want to buy, and we've all got Amazon purchases on our minds. 现在人们担心的是，随着我们进入假日购物季，商店货架上摆满了我们想购买的各种商品，我们都在考虑在亚马逊购物，届时这些关税将直接影响消费者，导致物价上涨。

Now there is a greater concern that inflation is going to begin to pinch the consumer. 现在，人们更担心通货膨胀将开始让消费者感到拮据。

Bloomberg: And I think that may be a little troubling for the Fed. 彭博: 我认为这可能让美联储 (Fed: 美国中央银行，负责制定货币政策)感到有些不安。

Although we heard from Chair Jay Powell today, and a lot of his focus continues to be on this weakness in the labor market. 尽管我们今天听到了美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔（Jay Powell）的讲话，他的很多关注点仍然是劳动力市场 (Labor Market: 劳动力供求关系的市场)的疲软。

It's going to be very interesting to see how the Fed navigates this terrain and at what point the Fed really has to do a better job of balancing the risk between weakness in the labor market with the potential for very, very sticky inflation. 这将非常有趣，看看美联储如何应对这一局面，以及美联储何时才能更好地平衡劳动力市场疲软与非常顽固的通货膨胀之间的风险。

But if the market has to dial back from expectations of aggressive Fed easing given the clients that you have, the folks that you speak to in Washington, would that be deeply concerning? 但是，考虑到你的客户以及你在华盛顿接触的人，如果市场不得不回调对美联储积极放松政策的预期，那会非常令人担忧吗？

Are these people that you speak with very dependent on the idea that we're going to see easier monetary policy? 你与之交谈的这些人是否非常依赖于我们将看到宽松货币政策 (Monetary Policy: 中央银行通过控制货币供应和利率来影响经济的措施)的想法？

劳动力市场疲软与美联储降息预期

Sandra Schwarzki: I think the expectation after September and in the leadup to the next Fed meeting is that we are going to see another cut. 桑德拉·施瓦茨基: 我认为，在9月之后以及下一次美联储会议之前，市场预期我们将看到另一次降息。

Maybe not in October, but certainly before the end of the year, we are going to see another cut based in large part on the weakening job market. 也许不是在10月，但肯定在年底之前，我们将看到另一次降息，这很大程度上是基于劳动力市场的疲软。

Now, we don't have prospective numbers because the government is shut down, and so all of those indicators are not being supplied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 现在，我们没有预期的数字，因为政府已经关闭，所以所有这些指标都没有由劳工统计局提供。

So, we have some really good guesses based upon some private sector data, and all of that data looks like it is a much weakened job market. 因此，我们根据一些私营部门的数据进行了一些非常好的猜测，所有这些数据都表明劳动力市场明显疲软。

And that is going to play into the Fed's decision to perhaps lower interest rates. 这将影响美联储决定可能降低利率。

But again, they're looking at all of the threat of all the increased tariffs, which at 100% coming out of China on all those Chinese input imports will affect consumers, will affect inflation. 但同样，他们正在关注所有增加关税的威胁，中国对所有这些中国进口产品征收100%的关税将影响消费者，也将影响通货膨胀。

So, boy, I don't envy their next couple of weeks. 所以，天哪，我不羡慕他们接下来的几周。

Bloomberg: I'm curious, Sandra, given the client base that you have, how do they feel about the way in which the Trump administration has been managing the economy, whether it's tariffs or tax policy, deregulation? 彭博: 桑德拉，我很好奇，考虑到你的客户群体，他们如何看待特朗普政府管理经济的方式，无论是关税、税收政策还是放松管制？

I mean, is there a consensus here that you can address, or is there a kind of a range of opinion in terms of how the administration is doing? 我的意思是，你是否能谈谈这里是否存在共识，或者对于政府的表现存在各种不同的看法？

Sandra Schwarzki: So, I think when the administration first took office, and our clients saw the tariff threats and the saber rattling and the rest, there was a lot of concern and a lot of pause, but they've come to expect some of that. 桑德拉·施瓦茨基: 我认为，当政府刚上任时，我们的客户看到了关税威胁和虚张声势 (Saber Rattling: 指通过展示武力或威胁来恐吓对手的行为)等，当时有很多担忧和犹豫，但他们已经习惯了这些。

In some cases, the Trump administration has normalized the threatening tariffs and the saber rattling. 在某些情况下，特朗普政府已经将威胁性关税和虚张声势常态化了。

And despite what appears to be instability in the government, the market continues to go up. 尽管政府似乎存在不稳定，但市场仍在继续上涨。

So I think the market and our clients that rely on the market and are part of the market feel like they have figured out the secret sauce, figured out that the administration is going to continue to threaten and to provoke. 因此，我认为市场以及那些依赖市场并作为市场一部分的客户觉得他们已经找到了“秘诀”，他们已经明白政府将继续威胁和挑衅。

But many of them believe that that will have little real impact in the long term on the market or their companies. 但他们中的许多人认为，从长远来看，这不会对市场或他们的公司产生多大实际影响。

There may be some short-term instability and volatility, but long term they believe that the president wants a strong economy and will do what he and is doing what he's doing in order to get us to a stronger economy. 短期内可能会有一些不稳定和波动，但从长远来看，他们相信总统希望经济强劲，并将采取他正在采取的行动，以使我们实现更强大的经济。

Even though if you look at the day to day, it does not it seems it's very unsettling. 尽管如果你看日常情况，它看起来非常令人不安。

Bloomberg: Sandra, we'll leave it there. 彭博: 桑德拉，我们就此打住。

Thank you so very much. 非常感谢。

Sandra Schwarzki is the founder, also the CEO of the advisory firm Integer, joining us from Washington DC. 桑德拉·施瓦茨基是咨询公司Integer的创始人兼首席执行官，她从华盛顿特区加入我们。

In a moment or two, we'll bring in Rob Williams from Sage Advisory Services. 稍后，我们将请来Sage Advisory Services的罗布·威廉姆斯（Rob Williams）。

He's in Austin, Texas. 他在德克萨斯州奥斯汀。

And we'll take a look at the interest rate environment and what's happening in the fixed income space coming up here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. 我们将在《亚洲破晓》播客中关注利率环境以及固定收益领域正在发生的事情。

银行财报与信贷质量担忧

Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia podcast. 欢迎回到《亚洲破晓》播客。

I'm Doug Krer. 我是道格·克雷尔。

The earning season is underway in the US, and in the last session, we heard from several of the big banks. 美国的财报季正在进行中，在上一交易日，我们听到了几家大银行的业绩报告。

The results were by and large pretty solid, although the commentary seemed to be a little mixed. 总的来说，业绩相当稳健，尽管评论似乎有些褒贬不一。

We had bank stocks finishing mixed as well. 银行股也涨跌互现。

The KBW Bank index was up 1.8%, but it closed off its session high. KBW银行指数上涨1.8%，但收盘时低于盘中高点。

For a look at the earning season, I'm joined by Rob Williams. 为了了解财报季，我请来了罗布·威廉姆斯。

He is managing partner, also the chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory Services. 他是Sage Advisory Services的执行合伙人兼首席投资策略师。

Rob is based in Austin, Texas. 罗布常驻德克萨斯州奥斯汀。

Thank you so much for making time to chat with me. 非常感谢你抽出时间与我交谈。

Give me your sense of what you heard today from the big banks. 请你谈谈今天从大银行那里听到了什么。

Rob Williams: Yeah, I mean, we look, we're think manager. 罗布·威廉姆斯: 是的，我的意思是，我们看，我们是基金经理。

We do a lot of investing in credit, obviously, and we're very concerned about the consumer. 我们当然在信贷领域进行了大量投资，我们非常关注消费者。

So we wanted the overall thing we wanted to see is any read on insight on the consumer, especially kind of write downs, things like that, and overall like you said earlier, very healthy driven a lot by IPO activity, trading revenue, things like that, not much damage. 所以我们想看到的是关于消费者洞察的整体情况，特别是像减记之类的，总的来说，就像你之前说的，非常健康，很大程度上是由首次公开募股 (IPO: Initial Public Offering: 公司首次向公众出售股票)活动、交易收入等因素推动的，没有太多损害。

You know, these big banks hold very little limited subprime auto type of exposure or anything that would have hurt them that much, so pretty positive overall, but the comments, like you also said, kind of looking forward, not as optimistic as kind of the current run rate that you've seen, you know, slow down the consumer, maybe some cracks on the credit side. 你知道，这些大银行持有的次级汽车贷款敞口 (Subprime Auto Exposure: 对信用评级较低的借款人发放的汽车贷款的风险)非常有限，或者说没有任何会给它们造成太大伤害的东西，所以总体而言相当积极，但就像你说的，展望未来的评论，并没有像你看到的当前运行速度那样乐观，你知道，消费者放缓了，信贷方面可能出现了一些裂缝。

You've seen a few little cracks, and we all know how tight credit spreads (Credit Spreads: 风险较高的债券与无风险债券（如国债）之间的收益率差异) are. 你已经看到了一些小裂缝，我们都知道信用利差 (Credit Spreads: 风险较高的债券与无风险债券（如国债）之间的收益率差异)有多么紧张。

So there's not a lot of room for any kind of bigger systemic sort of crisis would certainly impact the credit markets overall. 所以，没有太多空间来应对任何更大的系统性危机，那肯定会影响整个信贷市场。

Bloomberg: So I'm glad you mentioned Jamie Diamond there, the CEO of JP Morgan. 彭博: 很高兴你提到了摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Diamond）。

He was warning today of a potential deterioration in credit quality. 他今天警告说信贷质量可能恶化。

Now you and I both know that lately we have seen the implosion of Tricolor Holdings, the auto lender, as well as the car parts supplier First Brands. 你我都清楚，最近我们看到了汽车贷款公司Tricolor Holdings以及汽车零部件供应商First Brands的倒闭。

And Diamond was remarking when he sees situations like this, his antenna go up, and he also said when you see one cockroach, there are probably more. 戴蒙评论说，当他看到这种情况时，他的警觉性会提高，他还说当你看到一只蟑螂时，可能还有更多。

Does he have a point there? 他说的有道理吗？

Rob Williams: Yeah, I mean, look, there's a lot of opaque sides of the credit market now in private credit and other things. 罗布·威廉姆斯: 是的，我的意思是，现在信贷市场在私人信贷和其他方面有很多不透明的地方。

So for sure there needs to be a little more dispersion amongst some of these BDC's (Business Development Companies: 业务发展公司: 投资于中小型私营公司的公开交易基金) and other things because there are some problems under there whether they're going to be big enough to bleed up to investment grade credit. 所以，肯定需要这些业务发展公司 (BDC's: Business Development Companies: 投资于中小型私营公司的公开交易基金)和其他事物之间有更多的分散性，因为其中存在一些问题，至于它们是否会大到影响投资级信用 (Investment Grade Credit: 信用评级高，违约风险低的债券)。

You know, we don't see that happening anytime soon, but we certainly think it's not a bad time to be thinking about, hey, should I be moving up in liquidity in my income side of my portfolio, right? 我们认为这种情况短期内不会发生，但我们确实认为现在是时候考虑一下，嘿，我是否应该增加投资组合中收益部分的流动性 (Liquidity: 资产转换为现金的难易程度)了，对吧？

You know, bank reserves have been going down, bank reserves serves as a percentage of GDP, which is what the kind of the Fed measures sort of when we're in ample liquidity situation. 你知道，银行准备金一直在下降，银行准备金占GDP的百分比（这是美联储衡量我们何时处于充足流动性状况的指标）一直在下降。

That's been kind of getting down lower and lower, kind of out of that band of like ample. 这个比例一直在下降，已经脱离了“充足”的区间。

So maybe liquidity shrinking a little bit. 所以，流动性可能正在略微收缩。

We've seeing some cracks. 我们看到了一些裂缝。

Not a bad time to stay in more liquid, transparent, higher, not just higher quality, but lower volatility kind of markets in the fixed income space. 在固定收益领域，现在是时候保持在流动性更强、透明度更高、质量更高但波动性更低的市场中。

Well, that takes us to Fed Chair Jay Powell. 这把我们带到了美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔（Jay Powell）。

Today, he kind of reinforced bets on a rate cut in October. 今天，他似乎强化了市场对10月降息的押注。

That shouldn't be a big surprise if you've been tracking the Fed speak. 如果你一直关注美联储的言论，这应该不足为奇。

A number of policymakers have been very concerned about the weakness of the labor market. 许多政策制定者一直非常担心劳动力市场的疲软。

Powell also indicated the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet (Balance Sheet: 显示公司在特定时间点资产、负债和所有者权益的财务报表) in the coming months as a way of perhaps maintaining, to your point, a little of the liquidity, especially in the overnight funding markets. 鲍威尔还表示，美联储可能在未来几个月停止缩减其资产负债表 (Balance Sheet: 显示公司在特定时间点资产、负债和所有者权益的财务报表)，这或许是为了维持一些流动性，尤其是在隔夜拆借市场。

So are you really seeing evidence now that things are kind of drying up a bit? 那么，你现在真的看到有证据表明情况有些枯竭了吗？

美联储政策与市场流动性

Rob Williams: Yeah, I mean, bankers have certainly been run down, right? 罗布·威廉姆斯: 是的，我的意思是，银行家们肯定已经筋疲力尽了，对吧？

And the Fed has been engaging in triggering their balance sheet for a while. 而且美联储已经缩减资产负债表 (Balance Sheet: 显示公司在特定时间点资产、负债和所有者权益的财务报表)一段时间了。

They've said when liquidity is gone from excessive to ample is when they would think about shutting down QT (Quantitative Tightening: 量化紧缩: 中央银行通过减少其资产负债表来收紧货币政策). 他们曾表示，当流动性从过剩变为充足时，他们就会考虑停止量化紧缩 (QT: Quantitative Tightening: 中央银行通过减少其资产负债表来收紧货币政策)。

And we're in that zone. 我们正处于那个区域。

We're the bottom of that zone. 我们处于那个区域的底部。

I think some of the governors has pointed at put the number in that kind of 10 to 12% of GDP for bank reserves. 我认为一些理事指出，银行准备金占GDP的比例约为10%到12%。

We're right around 10. 我们目前就在10%左右。

So we're right at the lower end of that. 所以我们正处于那个区间的下限。

So the good news is they're probably getting ready to fold up that and end QT. 所以好消息是，他们可能准备结束并停止量化紧缩 (QT: Quantitative Tightening: 中央银行通过减少其资产负债表来收紧货币政策)。

The bad news is that liquidity has shrunk a little bit. 坏消息是，流动性确实有所收缩。

It's not tight at this moment, but like I said earlier, maybe a good time to be thinking about, hey, I want to be a little more liquid in my fixed income side. 目前还不算紧张，但就像我之前说的，现在可能是个好时机来考虑，嘿，我的固定收益部分需要更多的流动性 (Liquidity: 资产转换为现金的难易程度)。

Bloomberg: I'm curious about how you view the macro these days, particularly in the absence of a lot of government data. 彭博: 我很好奇你最近如何看待宏观经济，特别是在缺乏大量政府数据的情况下。

We've been lacking some key data points here because of the shutdown, and the CPI (Consumer Price Index: 消费者物价指数: 衡量消费者购买的商品和服务价格变化的指标) report, which was to have been released tomorrow. 由于政府关闭，我们缺少一些关键数据点，原定于明天发布的消费者物价指数 (CPI: Consumer Price Index: 衡量消费者购买的商品和服务价格变化的指标)报告。

That would have been the October 15th here in the States. 那应该是美国的10月15日。

It's been pushed out to I think the 24th. 它被推迟到我认为是24日。

Give me a sense of how you've had to navigate this landscape right now without a lack of or with a lack of government data. 请告诉我，在缺乏政府数据的情况下，你目前是如何应对这种局面的。

Rob Williams: Yeah, that is a problem, especially if it continues on. 罗布·威廉姆斯: 是的，那是个问题，尤其是如果这种情况持续下去的话。

Fortunately, there's been a growing amount of alternative private data that you can lean into. 幸运的是，现在有越来越多的替代性私人数据可以依赖。

And Bloomberg certainly has a good read on that. 彭博社对此当然有很好的解读。

There's even a worksheet of all the various private sources like you had one today. 甚至有一份包含所有各种私人来源的工作表，就像你今天看到的那样。

The one piece of data you had was small business optimism, right? 你得到的一份数据是小企业乐观情绪，对吧？

And that ticked down. 而且那个数据下降了。

If you crack that open, there are some inflation components to that. 如果你深入分析，其中包含一些通胀成分。

So, you have to be a little more creative and dig a little deeper. 所以，你必须更有创造力，挖掘得更深一些。

But that one, we actually look at that small business, and there's a reading in that that says, hey, what percentage of small businesses are expecting to increase prices? 但是那个数据，我们实际上会看小企业数据，其中有一个读数表明，嘿，有多少比例的小企业预计会提高价格？

So, it's a good indication of price pressures. 所以，这是一个很好的物价压力指标。

And that's been ticking up. 而且这个指标一直在上升。

So that tells us, yeah, this price pressure is still coming, and you have to kind of lean into some of the other alternative data sources for job numbers, and they basically been telling you the same thing. 所以这告诉我们，是的，这种物价压力仍在持续，你必须依赖其他一些替代数据来源来获取就业数据，而这些数据基本上也告诉你同样的事情。

Jobs are weakening, pricing pressure is okay, but we're seeing some sign that it's starting to percolate. 就业市场正在走弱，物价压力尚可，但我们看到一些迹象表明它开始显现。

Bloomberg: Does that necessarily equate to stagflation (Stagflation: 滞胀: 经济停滞与高通货膨胀并存的现象)? 彭博: 这是否必然等同于滞胀 (Stagflation: 经济停滞与高通货膨胀并存的现象)？

Rob Williams: No, I think because you just haven't seen the goods, you're getting some stag in the job numbers. 罗布·威廉姆斯: 不，我认为，因为你还没有看到商品，你在就业数据中看到了一些停滞。

But you're not getting inflation coming through that. 但你没有看到通货膨胀从中体现出来。

The goods pass through has not been that bad. 商品的传导效应并没有那么糟糕。

The housing and the energy and the service sector slowing down has sort of contained that. 住房、能源和服务业的放缓在某种程度上遏制了这一点。

What we're kind of looking for is, hey, you know, we know inventories have been built up, they're running down. 我们正在关注的是，嘿，你知道，我们知道库存已经建立起来，它们正在减少。

And when we start to see more margin pressures and things like that small business price index and really starting to come through, we get a little nervous. 当我们开始看到更多的利润压力，以及像小企业物价指数这样的数据真正开始显现时，我们会有点紧张。

But right now it looks more like the Fed's going to be more and they've said it more worried about jobs and inflation at the moment. 但目前看来，美联储似乎更担心就业和通货膨胀，他们也多次表达了这种担忧。

全球赤字、贬值交易与投资策略

Bloomberg: I'd like to get your view, Rob, on this debasement trade (Debasement Trade: 贬值交易: 投资者预期货币价值将下降而进行的交易，通常通过购买黄金等避险资产) that's been rippling across not just markets here in the states, but globally as well. 彭博: 罗布，我想听听你对这种贬值交易 (Debasement Trade: 贬值交易: 投资者预期货币价值将下降而进行的交易，通常通过购买黄金等避险资产)的看法，它不仅在美国市场，而且在全球范围内都在蔓延。

It seems like a number of investors are pulling away from sovereign debt (Sovereign Debt: 政府发行的债务) chasing gold, maybe even silver. 似乎许多投资者正在抛弃主权债务 (Sovereign Debt: 政府发行的债务)，转而追逐黄金，甚至可能是白银。

Give me your sense of what's happening and what the risks are right now. 请你谈谈目前正在发生什么以及存在哪些风险。

Rob Williams: Yeah, I you know, there's many reasons, but it's just like when you saw that backend volatility in the curve, there's still a lot of uncertainty policy politically for inflation. 罗布·威廉姆斯: 是的，你知道，有很多原因，但这就像你看到曲线后端波动时一样，在政治政策上，通货膨胀仍然存在很多不确定性。

And there's also deficits are not a US problem. 而且赤字也不是美国独有的问题。

They are a global problem, and they're not going away anytime soon. 它们是一个全球性问题，并且短期内不会消失。

So that's going to kind of keep pushing people away from some of the traditional things and getting and creating some volatility on the back end of the curve and pushing people towards gold and and things like and and even crypto and things like that. 所以这会继续将人们推离一些传统资产，并在曲线后端制造一些波动，将人们推向黄金、加密货币等资产。

And it's not going away anytime soon, but it's also from a rate perspective, I think it's not going to get out of hand either. 而且这种情况短期内不会消失，但从利率角度来看，我认为它也不会失控。

I think it'll be contained because like I said, inflation is not out of the bag here. 我认为它会得到控制，因为就像我说的，这里的通货膨胀并没有失控。

The supply demand for rates and some of this stuff is still pretty favorable. 利率和一些商品的供需关系仍然相当有利。

We just talked about QT ending. 我们刚才谈到了量化紧缩 (QT: Quantitative Tightening: 中央银行通过减少其资产负债表来收紧货币政策)的结束。

The Treasury is going to issue more bills than long paper. 财政部将发行更多的短期票据而非长期债券。

So they're going to do their level best to keep the volatility sort of down at the long end of the curve. 所以他们会尽力抑制曲线长端的波动。

But people are certainly the driving force is I think global deficits. 但人们肯定，我认为驱动力是全球赤字。

So you wouldn't be shunning US treasuries in favor of high-quality IG credit (Investment Grade Credit: 投资级公司债: 信用评级高、违约风险低的公司债券) like a Microsoft, would you? 所以你不会为了像微软这样的高品质投资级公司债 (IG Credit: Investment Grade Credit: 信用评级高、违约风险低的公司债券)而回避美国国债，对吗？

Rob Williams: Uh, no, I look, I'd have a diversified portfolio. 罗布·威廉姆斯: 不，你看，我会有多元化的投资组合。

I wouldn't shy away from duration (Duration: 久期: 衡量债券价格对利率变化敏感度的指标), right? 我不会回避久期 (Duration: 久期: 衡量债券价格对利率变化敏感度的指标)，对吧？

The cash is not going to look is going to look increasingly less attractive in an easing cycle, right? 在宽松周期中，现金看起来会越来越不具吸引力，对吧？

You've gotten good returns in say fixed income, treasuries, IG, credit, 6-7%, you're going to get just in carry (Carry: 利差交易收益: 资产持有期间获得的利息或收益与融资成本之间的差额), you're going to get another percent and a half in the fourth quarter just in carry (Carry: 利差交易收益: 资产持有期间获得的利息或收益与融资成本之间的差额). 你在固定收益、国债、投资级公司债等领域获得了6-7%的良好回报，仅凭利差交易收益 (Carry: 资产持有期间获得的利息或收益与融资成本之间的差额)，在第四季度你就能再获得1.5%的回报。

So, I wouldn't worry a whole lot about duration (Duration: 久期: 衡量债券价格对利率变化敏感度的指标). 所以，我不会太担心久期 (Duration: 久期: 衡量债券价格对利率变化敏感度的指标)。

And again, you're not if you're in a diversified portfolio, you don't have a lot of the extreme long-end exposure if that's what you're worried about. 再说一次，如果你持有一个多元化的投资组合，你不会有太多的极端长端敞口，如果那是你所担心的。

And we're frankly, I'm not too worried about having that long end. 坦白说，我不太担心持有长期资产。

But I'm just saying typical investor is not going to have a bunch of 30-year paper. 但我只是说，普通投资者不会持有一大堆30年期的债券。

They're going to have, you know, in the 1 to 10-year part of the curve anyhow. 他们无论如何都会持有曲线中1到10年期的部分。

So, no, I wouldn't shy away from duration (Duration: 久期: 衡量债券价格对利率变化敏感度的指标) or high-quality fixed income. 所以，不，我不会回避久期 (Duration: 久期: 衡量债券价格对利率变化敏感度的指标)或高质量的固定收益产品。

Bloomberg: Okay, Rob, we'll leave it there. 彭博: 好的，罗布，我们就此打住。

Thank you so much. 非常感谢。

Rob Williams is managing partner, also the chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory Services from Austin, Texas here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. 罗布·威廉姆斯是Sage Advisory Services的执行合伙人兼首席投资策略师，他从德克萨斯州奥斯汀在这里的《亚洲破晓》播客中发言。

Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. 感谢收听今天的彭博《亚洲破晓》播客。

Each weekday, we look at the stories shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific. 每个工作日，我们都会关注塑造亚太地区市场、金融和地缘政治的故事。

You can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen. 您可以在苹果播客、Spotify、彭博播客YouTube频道或任何您收听播客的地方找到我们。

Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. 明天请再次收听，获取从香港到新加坡再到澳大利亚的市场动态洞察。

I'm Doug Krer, and this is Bloomberg. 我是道格·克雷尔，这里是彭博。