民主党停摆协议的复杂政治:党内分裂与战略反思 New York Times Podcasts 2025-11-12

民主党内部的“内战”:停摆协议引发的震荡

我是《纽约时报》的迈克尔·布巴罗(Michael Bubbero),这里是《The Daily》节目。

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From the New York Times, I'm Michael Bubbero. This is The Daily.

今天,我们将讲述一小群参议院民主党人如何背离他们的同事,与共和党达成协议以结束政府停摆,并引发党内最新一场“内战”的故事。

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Today, the story of how a small group of Senate Democrats broke from their colleagues, struck a deal with Republicans to end the government shutdown, and touched off the latest civil war inside their party.

我与我的同事,国会记者凯蒂·埃德蒙森(Katie Edmonson)和国家政治记者谢恩·戈德马克(Shane Goldmaker)进行了交谈。

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I spoke with my colleagues, congressional reporter Katie Edmonson and national political correspondent Shane Goldmaker.

现在是11月11日星期二。

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It's Tuesday, November 11th.

凯蒂,欢迎回来。谢谢你,迈克尔。

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Katie, welcome back. Thank you, Michael.

我只想解释一下,我们是在周一下午与你交谈的,当时新闻在几天内令人目不暇接,在我们谈话之后情况可能还会继续变化。

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I just want to explain that we're talking to you on Monday afternoon after a head spinning few days of news that could keep changing after we talked to you.

过去几天之所以令人目不暇接,是因为从外部看来,民主党在上次周二的选举后势头强劲,那次选举似乎证实了他们通过政府停摆来迫使共和党和特朗普总统正视高昂医疗成本的策略。

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And the reason the past few days have been head spinning is that from the outside it looked like Democrats were riding really high after last Tuesday's election, which seemed to ratify their strategy of keeping the federal government shut down as a way of forcing Republicans and President Trump to reckon with these sky-high health care costs.

事实上,这个策略似乎非常奏效,以至于在选举后,特朗普总统宣称停摆的责任在于共和党,并且这正在帮助民主党。

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In fact, it seemed to be working so well that in the aftermath of that election, Trump declared that the shutdown was being blamed on Republicans and was helping Democrats.

他阐明了这个想法,然后民主党人却把这个看似必胜的策略完全抛弃了。我没想到会发生这种事。

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He articulated that idea and then Democrats toss this entire seemingly winning strategy out of the window. I didn't see that coming.

嗯,迈克尔,我认为这让很多人感到措手不及,因为正如你所说,我记得周三我站在民主党闭门会议的外面,他们出来时听起来对新泽西州、纽约州和弗吉尼亚州的选民所做的一切感到非常兴奋。

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Well, I think it gave a lot of people a real sense of whiplash, Michael, because as you said, I remember standing outside of Democrats closed dooror meeting on Wednesday, and they came out sounding thrilled by what voters had just done in New Jersey, New York, Virginia, which is to show overwhelmingly that they sided with the Democratic agenda here, which was focused on lowering costs specifically.

这压倒性地表明选民支持民主党在这里的议程,该议程特别关注降低成本。

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which is to show overwhelmingly that they sided with the Democratic agenda here, which was focused on lowering costs specifically.

因此,我们从许多民主党人,特别是进步派民主党人那里听到,看,选民刚刚证实了我们的策略,他们告诉我们,他们希望我们继续战斗。

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And so we heard from a lot of Democrats, particularly progressive Democrats, that look, voters have just vindicated what our strategy is and they're telling us they want us to keep up the fight.

但是,迈克尔,我认为表面之下一直酝酿着的是,有一小群中间派民主党人对停摆所带来的所有痛点感到非常不安,他们正在寻找某种“下车道”。

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But I think what was always brewing under the surface, Michael, was that there was this small clutch of centrist Democrats who have grown really uncomfortable with all of the pain points that have emerged of the shutdown, who were looking for some sort of offramp,

对吧?一群民主党人并不认为停摆是民主党成功的顶峰。

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right? a clutch of Democrats who did not believe that the shutdown was the height of Democratic success.

那么,告诉我们这些参议员是谁,以及他们开始做了什么。

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So tell us who these senators are and what they started to do.

寻求“下车道”的温和派参议员

嗯,这些参议员中有许多来自所谓的“紫色州”(Purple States: 政治上摇摆不定的州)或“红色州”(Red States: 共和党占优势的州)。

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Well, a lot of these senators hail from kind of purple or reddish states.

他们中的许多人以拥有某种两党合作的资历而自豪,以跨党派合作而自豪。

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A lot of these are senators who really pride themselves on having some sort of bipartisan credentials to their name, pride themselves on working across the aisle.

我们谈论的是新罕布什尔州的参议员珍妮·沙欣(Jeanne Shaheen)和玛吉·哈桑(Maggie Hassan)。

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And we're talking about the senators from New Hampshire, Senator Jun Shaheen and Maggie Hassan.

我们谈论的是内华达州的参议员凯瑟琳·科尔特斯·马斯托(Catherine Cortez Masto)和杰基·罗森(Jackie Rosen)。

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We're talking about the senators from Nevada, Katherine Cortez Masto and Jackie Rosen.

缅因州的安格斯·金(Angus King),他实际上是一名独立人士,但他与民主党人一起参加党团会议(Caucus: 在美国政治中,指同一政党成员在立法机构内组成的团体)。

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Angus King of Maine, he's actually an independent, but he caucuses with Democrats.

当然还有宾夕法尼亚州的约翰·费特曼(John Fetterman),他最近经常与民主党人意见相左。

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John Federman of Pennsylvania, of course, someone who frequently finds himself breaking with Democrats these days.

嗯。

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Mhm.

我们谈论的是弗吉尼亚州的参议员蒂姆·凯恩(Tim Kaine)。

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We're talking about Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia.

最后,也是很重要的一点,还有伊利诺伊州的参议员迪克·德宾(Dick Durbin),他实际上是民主党二号人物。

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And finally, and importantly, there's Senator Dick Durban of Illinois, who is actually the number two Democrat.

他是该党的党鞭(Whip: 负责确保本党成员在重要投票中按党派路线投票的议员),他的任期结束后将不再寻求连任。

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He is the party's whip, who will not be running for reelection at the end of his term.

嗯。

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Mhm.

我认为他们共同得出的一个结论是,他们党一直要求的主要诉求,即共和党投票延长定于年底到期的《平价医疗法案》(Affordable Care Act, ACA: 一项旨在扩大医疗保险覆盖范围、降低医疗成本的美国联邦法律)补贴,是不会实现的。

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And I think one of the conclusions that they all ended up coming to together, is that the chief demand that their party had been asking for, which is for Republicans to vote to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year, was not going to happen.

这根本不可能发生。

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and it was not in the cards.

是什么让他们如此确信这一点?共和党人开始公开承认停摆对民主党有利,这意味着他们承认医疗保健问题对他们不利。

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And what made them so sure of that with Republicans starting to openly acknowledge that the shutdown was going well for Democrats, that meant them acknowledging that the healthcare issue was not going well for them.

此外,又是什么让这些参议院民主党人乐于放弃最初导致政府停摆的核心理由——医疗保健呢?

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And what furthermore made these Senate Democrats comfortable with the idea of giving up on the central rationale for shutting down the government in the first place, healthcare?

嗯,我认为他们中的大多数人都看到了“墙上的字”(Writing on the wall: 指不祥的预兆),看到了特朗普总统拒绝谈判,看到了众议院议长迈克·约翰逊(Mike Johnson)甚至拒绝承诺就此问题进行投票。

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Well, I think most of them saw the writing on the wall, saw the refusal of President Trump to negotiate, saw the refusal of Speaker Mike Johnson over in the House to even commit to holding a vote on the issue.

另一方面,他们也看到了自停摆开始以来给美国选民造成的种种痛苦。

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And then on the other side of the coin, they saw all of the pain that has been inflicted on American voters ever since the shutdown began.

我认为他们得出的结论是,是的,延长这些补贴非常重要,这是一场值得进行的斗争。

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And I think the conclusion that they came to was yes, extending these subsidies is extremely important. It's a fight worth having.

然而,我们看不到结局,而且现在这正在以许多劳动人民的利益为代价。

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However, we don't see an endgame here, and it is now coming at the expense of a lot of working people.

嗯。

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Mhm.

于是,他们开始在自己内部,也与参议院的中间派共和党人进行秘密讨论,试图看看是否能在这里达成某种协议,给我们一个可以接受的“下车道”,以便我们能够投票重新开放政府并结束这次停摆?

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And so, they begin these quiet discussions amongst themselves, but also with centrist Republicans in the Senate to try to see, is there some sort of deal we can broker here that can give us an acceptable offramp so that we can vote to reopen the government and end this shutdown?

嗯。

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Hm.

那么,这群温和派参议院民主党人在明知医疗保健问题已不在谈判范围之内的情况下,与共和党达成了什么样的协议呢?

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And what kind of negotiation does this clutch of moderate Senate Democrats enter into with Republicans knowing that healthcare is off the table?

协议细节:恢复运作与制衡总统

嗯,这些谈判主要围绕支出法案展开,对吧?

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Well, these negotiations essentially center on spending bills, right?

也就是重新开放政府的拨款法案。

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Funding bills to reopen the government.

但它们最终真正围绕的是民主党人正在推动的措施,以限制特朗普政府在停摆期间采取的一些行动,并保护白宫在资金中断期间试图“武器化”的一些项目。

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But what they ultimately really become centered around are these measures that Democrats are pushing for in order to rein in some of the actions taken by the Trump administration during the shutdown and also to protect some of the programs that the White House sought to weaponize during that funding lapse,

比如?

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such as

这里的一些主要条款包括一项措施,规定所有在停摆期间被解雇或裁员的工人必须复职。

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some of the big provisions here include a measure saying all of the workers who were fired or laid off during the shutdown have to be returned to their jobs.

迈克尔,你会记得特朗普总统在停摆期间曾多次暗示,他可能不会给在停摆期间被强制休假的联邦工作人员补发工资。

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Michael, you'll remember that President Trump has hinted repeatedly during the shutdown that maybe he would not give back pay to federal workers who were furoughed during the shutdown.

因此,他们加入了一项条款,规定联邦政府将向联邦工作人员偿还他们错过的工资,而且我们在这项法案中提供了这样做的资金。

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So, they include a provision that says the federal government will repay federal workers for the paychecks that they missed and we're providing you with the money to do it right here in this bill.

明白了。

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Gotcha.

这有点复杂,但他们着手保护一个名为政府问责局(Government Accountability Office, GAO: 美国国会的审计、评估和调查机构,负责监督联邦政府的支出和绩效)的独立机构。

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And this gets kind of wonky, but they move to protect this independent agency called the Government Accountability Office.

嗯,这是一个政府机构,它本质上是监督白宫如何处理国会拨款的“看门狗”。

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Um, and this is a government agency that essentially is a watchdog for how the White House handles the funds that Congress appropriates.

这个机构今年仅就白宫非法处理国会拨款一事,就曾七次揭发白宫。

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This is an agency that has blown the whistle on the White House seven times alone this year, saying that the White House has illegally handled money that Congress appropriated.

而且这个机构实际上有权就扣押资金(Impoundment: 指行政部门拒绝支出国会已拨款的资金)或白宫拒绝发放国会已拨款的资金而起诉白宫。

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And this is an agency that actually has the power to sue the White House over impoundment or when the White House refuses to release funds that Congress has appropriated.

因此,众议院共和党人曾推动削减该机构的预算,并撤销其起诉白宫的权力。

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And so, House Republicans had pushed to essentially gut the budget of that agency and to also revoke its power to sue the White House.

因此,在这些谈判中,参议员们说:“如果你想投票重新开放政府,你需要确保这个机构是安全的,它有它需要的预算,并且它保留了目前所有起诉白宫的权力。”

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And so, in these negotiations, the senators say, "If you want a vote to reopen the government, you need to make sure that this agency is safe essentially, that it has the budget that it needs, and it retains all of the powers that it currently has in order to sue the White House."

太棒了。

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Fascinating.

当然,在医疗保健问题上,参议员们知道他们无法获得投票的保证,但他们确实从南达科他州多数党领袖约翰·图恩(John Thune)参议员那里得到了一个承诺,他将在12月晚些时候举行一次投票,就共和党是否延长ACA税收补贴进行一次“是”或“否”的投票。

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And on healthcare, of course, the senators know that they cannot get a guarantee on a vote, but they do get this promise from Senator John Thun of South Dakota, the majority leader, that he will hold a vote later in December, an up or down vote on whether or not Republicans will extend the ACA tax subsidies.

简而言之,这些民主党人达成了一项协议,基本上解除了停摆造成的大部分损害,并保留了这个对他们来说很重要的政府问责局,作为一个制衡总统的机构。

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So in short, these Democrats negotiate a deal that pretty much undoes a lot of the damage from the shutdown and preserves this government accountability office that matters to them as an institution that keeps the president in check.

最后,似乎也相当重要的一点是,他们得到了一项他们认为是“铁板钉钉”的承诺,即参议院共和党人将投票决定是否续签《平价医疗法案》补贴。

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And finally, and it seems somewhat significantly, they get what they see as an ironclad promise that Senate Republicans will vote on renewing Affordable Care Act subsidies,

也许他们不认为共和党人会这样做,但这将使共和党人留下不这样做的记录。

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which perhaps they don't think Republicans will, but that would put Republicans on record as not doing it.

没错。

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That's right.

迈克尔,他们想要的就是这个。

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What they want, Michael, is exactly that.

他们想让每一位参议院共和党人都在这个问题上留下记录。

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They want to put every single Senate Republican on the record on this issue.

因此,关于他们到底获得了什么的详细信息在周日晚上开始逐渐浮出水面。

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And so all of the details of exactly what they had secured started trickling out on Sunday evening.

我当时坐在国会大厦,你瞧,参议院拨款委员会开始发布立法文本,其中包含了民主党人所获得的这些政策胜利的细节。

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I was sitting up at the capital and lo and behold, the Senate Appropriations Committee starts putting out legislative text that actually contains the details of these policy wins the Democrats had secured.

所以,我当时正在仔细阅读这些法案,对吧,试图确切地了解其中内容。

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And so I'm kind of tearing through these bills, right, trying to read exactly what's in them.

你读得越多,就越清楚地发现,这里似乎真的达成了一项协议。

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And it becomes very clear the more that you read that it seems like there's really a deal here.

党内强烈反弹:进步派的愤怒与领导层的困境

凯蒂,我想我们必须解释一下,因为我们大多数人认为国会是一个非常自上而下(Top-down: 指决策由高层向下传达)的地方,决策来自高层。

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I think we just have to explain this Katie because most of us imagine that Congress is this very topdown place where decisions come from upon high.

但你所描述的是少数参议院民主党人似乎有点“离经叛道”,与共和党达成协议以结束停摆,而参议院民主党领导层并没有真正参与其中。

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But what you're describing is a handful of Senate Democrats a little bit going seemingly rogue and reaching a deal to try to end the shutdown with Republicans and the leadership of the Senate Democrats is not really involved.

嗯,迈克尔,我很高兴你提到了这一点。

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Well, I'm really glad that you brought this up, Michael.

我的意思是,这完全正确。

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I mean, that is completely right.

通常情况下,尤其是在过去几年里,国会一直是一个非常自上而下的机构。

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Typically, and especially in the past couple of years, Congress has been a very top- down institution.

我们在这里看到的,实际上是回到了大约六年前、十年前更常见的立法风格。

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What we saw here really was a return to sort of a style of legislating that was more common maybe 6 years ago, 10 years ago.

这些是所谓的“帮派”(Gangs: 指由两党议员组成的非正式跨党派小组,共同推动立法),参议员们以成为其中一员而自豪,对吧?

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These were the so-called gangs that senators really prided themselves on being a part of, right?

它的理念是,我和我的民主党朋友们将与你和你的五位共和党朋友们在一个封闭的房间里坐下来,我们将在我们之间解决这个问题。

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It was the idea that me and my Democratic friends are going to sit down in a closed door room with you and your five Republican friends and we're going to hammer this out amongst ourselves.

这正是我们在这里看到的。

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And that's really what we saw here.

我认为这也是为什么他们突然宣布达成协议会令很多人感到惊讶的原因之一。

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And I think it's one of the reasons why again their sudden declaration that they had a deal really did surprise a lot of people.

明白了。

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Got it.

迈克尔,参议院另一个令人惊讶的地方是,尽管它以行动缓慢而闻名,但当其领导人希望时,它也能迅速行动。

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And Michael, the other surprising thing about the Senate is that even though it is known for being such a slowm moving institution, it can really move quickly when its leaders want it to.

因此,这些中间派民主党人宣布他们有足够的票数达成妥协以重新开放政府后不久,我们就看到这项妥协在参议院全体会议上付诸表决。

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And so it was really not long after these centrist Democrats declared that they had the votes for a compromise to reopen the government that we saw that compromise be put to a vote on the Senate floor.

我认为这是我们绝大多数人,包括我自己在内,在周日晚上才了解到的时刻,正好赶上了一场新闻发布会,在这场发布会上,这小群民主党人走到麦克风前,试图解释他们为什么这样做,以及从某种意义上说,他们为什么绕过了其他民主党同事。

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And I think this was the moment that the vast majority of us, myself included, got clued in on Sunday night, just in time for a news conference in which this small group of Democrats goes up to the microphone and tries to explain why they're doing what they're doing and why in a sense they have gone around the rest of their Democratic colleagues.

你能和我们谈谈他们今天说了什么吗?

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Can you just talk to us about what they said today?

参议院投票决定开始重新开放政府。

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The Senate voted to start reopening the government.

因此,在投票后不久,这群民主党人就在参议院会议厅外举行了新闻发布会。

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So shortly after casting their votes, this clutch of Democrats holds a news conference right off the Senate floor.

我们向前迈出了一大步,以保护数千万美国人的医疗保健,以换取到1月31日的资金。

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We took a big step forward to protect the health care of tens of millions of Americans in exchange for funding through January 31st.

他们谈论了他们认为延长这些医疗保健补贴是多么重要。

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And they talk about how important they believe extending these healthc care subsidies is.

政府重新开放后,我们必须迅速行动,兑现这一承诺,并保持医疗保险费用的可负担性。

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With the government reopened, we must move quickly to deliver on that promise and to keep health care premiums affordable.

但他们主要谈论的是人们在停摆中经历的痛苦。

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But mostly they talk about the pain that people are experiencing in a shutdown.

我们看到北内华达州的食品银行排起了长队。

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We were seeing lines to our food banks in northern Nevada.

这些是我自疫情以来从未见过的队伍。

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These were lines that I hadn't seen since the pandemic.

有参议员谈到SNAP(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: 补充营养援助计划,即食品券计划)的受助者,对吧,他们正在挨饿。

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You have senators talking about SNAP recipients, right, who are going hungry.

我们有TSA(Transportation Security Administration: 运输安全管理局)的特工。

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We have TSA agents.

我们有机场管制员。

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We have airport controllers.

你听说联邦工作人员已经好几周没有领到工资了。

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You hear about the federal workers who have gone for weeks without a paycheck.

这项协议确保执法人员、空中交通管制员和其他联邦工作人员能够获得报酬。

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This agreement ensures that law enforcement, air traffic controllers, and other federal workers get paid.

一个接一个地,很明显,对于这些参议员来说,继续停摆是不可行的。

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And one by one, it just becomes very clear that for these senators, continuing on with this shutdown was simply not tenable.

这是唯一可行的协议。

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This was the only deal on the table.

这是我们重新开放政府并立即开始谈判以延长数千万美国人赖以降低成本的ACA税收抵免的最佳机会。

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It was our best chance to reopen the government and immediately begin negotiations to extend the ACA tax credits that tens of millions of Americans rely on to keep costs down.

谢谢大家。

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Thank you all.

谢谢大家。

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Thank you all.

然而,正如我们从周日晚上参议院发生的情况所知,他们绝大多数民主党同事都不同意他们的做法。

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And yet, as we could tell from what was happening on the floor of the Senate on Sunday night, the vast majority of their Democratic colleagues disagree with them.

没错。

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That's right.

至少他们是这样投票的。

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At least that's how they voted.

正好有八名民主党人投票支持这项重新开放政府的协议。

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There were exactly eight Democrats who voted for this deal to reopen the government.

迈克尔,这就是这项协议能够推进所需的“神奇数字”的民主党人数。

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And Michael, that was the magic number of Democrats needed in order for this deal to advance.

嗯,这意味着其余所有民主党党团成员都投了反对票。

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Mhm. which means that the entire rest of the Democratic caucus voted no.

他们不仅投了反对票,其中许多人还非常直言不讳地表达了他们对一些同事今晚所做决定的沮丧。

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Not only did they vote no, a lot of them were pretty vocal in saying how frustrated they were by this decision made by some of their colleagues tonight.

今晚。

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tonight.

参议院即将做的事情只会让可怕的局面变得更糟。

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What this Senate is about to do is make a horrific situation even worse.

你听到了这种沮丧情绪来自民主党党团的广泛成员,包括伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)参议员这样的进步派人士。

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And you heard this frustration coming from a wide swath of the Democratic caucus, progressives like Senator Bernie Sanders.

如果这次投票成功,超过2000万美国人的《平价医疗法案》保费将至少翻倍。

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If this vote succeeds, over 20 million Americans are going to see at least a doubling in their premiums in the Affordable Care Act.

但你也听到了像密歇根州参议员艾丽莎·斯洛特金(Alyssa Slotkin)这样的人发出的类似声音,我认为她是一位相当温和的民主党人。

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But you also heard similar noises being made by people like Senator Alyssa Slotkin, who I think of as being a pretty moderate Democrat from Michigan,

她表示她根本无法支持这项努力,因为桌面上没有真正的医疗保健协议,而这正是她希望为美国人民争取到的。

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who said that she simply couldn't lend her vote to this effort because there was no real healthc care deal on the table and that's what she wanted for the American people.

总统先生,民主党领袖,美国正处于共和党制造的医疗保健危机之中。

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The Democratic leader, Mr. President, America is in the midst of a Republicanmade healthcare crisis.

甚至纽约州参议员查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer),他是参议院民主党党团的领袖,也说他将反对这项由他自己的一些成员促成的协议。

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And even Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, who is the leader of the Senate Democratic Caucus, says that he is going to oppose this deal that was brokered by some of his own members.

我必须投反对票。

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I must vote no,

他说:“这场医疗保健危机如此严重,如此紧迫,对家乡的家庭来说如此具有破坏性,以至于我无法凭良心支持这项未能解决医疗保健危机的持续决议案(CR: Continuing Resolution,指国会通过的一项临时拨款法案,允许政府在正式预算通过前继续运作)。”

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And he says, "This healthcare crisis is so this healthcare crisis is so severe, so urgent, so devastating for families back home that I cannot in good faith support this CR that fails to address the healthcare crisis."

迈克尔,这些中间派民主党人宣布他们准备投票重新开放政府后仅仅几分钟,国会山上的民主党人就已经开始听到来自全国各地选民的声音了。

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Now, Michael, it was really only minutes after these centrist Democrats made their declaration that they were ready to vote to reopen the government that Democrats on Capitol Hill were already hearing from their voters all across the country.

实际上,当我站在那扇紧闭的会议室门外时,我看到一位资深的民主党助手正在滑动手机,他的脸上表情很奇怪,几乎有点苍白。

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Actually, as I was standing outside of that closed door meeting, I looked over at a senior Democratic aid who was scrolling on his phone and his face was he just had a funny look on his face. He was almost a little ashen.

我问:“怎么了?”他说:“哦,我只是在看社交媒体上对此的反应。”

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And I said, "Well, what's going on?" on and he said, "Oh, I'm just looking at the reactions to this on social media."

他看到的就是我认为我们都看到的东西。

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And what he was seeing is what I think we've all seen.

民主党人从40多天的停摆中得到了什么?

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What, if anything, did Democrats get out of a 40 plus days of a shutdown?

什么都没有。

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Nothing.

他们什么也没得到。

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They didn't get anything.

这和多数党领袖约翰·图恩(John Thune)参议员提出的协议是一样的。

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This is the same deal that Senator John Thun majority leader John

在社交媒体上,在有线新闻上。

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on social media, on cable news.

这是不可原谅的。

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It is unconscionable. Uncionable.

这种在民主党内部充满情感的爆发。

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And this emotionally charged explosion within the Democratic party.

我们为什么要表现得好像民主党刚刚输掉了选举?

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Like why are we acting as if Democrats just lost the election?

民主党取得了压倒性的胜利。

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Democrats had overwhelming victories.

我不明白一个民主党参议员怎么会说:“哇,我们赢得很漂亮。现在让我认输吧。”

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I don't understand how a Democratic senator goes, "Wow, we won really big. Let me cave now."

我不明白华盛顿的这些人认为他们在做什么,他们声称代表着人民。

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I don't understand what these people in Washington think they're doing representing the people who they claim to represent.

我认为这重新引发了党内正在发生的许多激烈辩论,关于民主党人在此刻应该如何定位自己?

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That I think has resurrected a lot of the sort of fierce debates that are happening internally within the party when it comes to how should Democrats position themselves in this moment?

民主党人如何才能最好地反击特朗普政府?

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How can Democrats best fight back against the Trump administration?

政治算计:为何民主党选择“退让”

嗯,凯蒂,非常感谢你。

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Well, Katie, thank you very much.

谢谢你,迈克尔。

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Thank you, Michael.

我们马上回来。

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We'll be right back.

谢恩,谢谢你来这里。

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Shane, thank you for being here.

谢谢你邀请我。

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Thanks for having me on.

你上次来演播室,不到一周前。

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The last time you were in the studio, less than one week ago.

不到一周前,选举之夜,你来这里是为了观察那对民主党人来说是多么非凡的胜利时刻。

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Less than one week ago, election night, and you came on to observe what an extraordinary moment of triumph it was for Democrats.

而现在,不到一周后,民主党人却在互相指责。

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And now, less than a week later, the Democrats are screaming at each other.

投票箱的巨大胜利已经变成了凯蒂刚才所说的投降、背叛、让步的说法。

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and resounding victory at the polls has yielded to claims as Katie just said of capitulation, betrayal, caving.

一周之内,情况大变。

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What a difference a week makes.

我与民主党策略师交谈时,经常出现的一个词是,这感觉像是民主党自己给自己挖的坑(Self-own: 指因自己的行为而导致自己受损或尴尬)。

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The term that has come up as I've talked to Democratic strategists has been that this feels like a self-own for the Democratic party

民主党在唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)经历了一个糟糕的星期后,本应势头强劲。

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that the Democratic Party been riding high after a rough week for Donald Trump.

而现在,从下周开始,他们决定这是放弃一场斗争的时刻,这场斗争是该党基层一直渴望的,而且他们似乎至少在政治上一直处于上风。

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And here starting this next week, they decided this was the moment to give up a fight that the party's base had been craving and one that they seemingly had been winning at least politically.

我想请你尽力回答这个非常简单的问题。

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I want you to answer to the best of your ability this very simple question.

总的来说,如果我们假设这次停摆很快就会结束,这对民主党来说是一次好的经历还是坏的经历?

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Taken in its totality, if we assume this shutdown is going to soon be over, was this a good experience for the Democrats or a bad one?

让我们从好的方面开始。

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Let's start with the good.

好的方面是,民主党明确提升了两个他们认为对党来说是“制胜”的问题。

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The good is that the Democratic party has clearly elevated two issues that it feels are the winning issues for the party.

第一个是医疗保健,第二个是通过医疗保健体现的可负担性。

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The first is healthcare and the second is affordability told through healthcare.

这些话题已经成为数周以来的主导话题,这对于一个在华盛顿没有权力的少数党来说是很难实现的。

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And those have been the dominant topic of conversation for weeks, which is pretty hard to pull off when you're the minority party with no power in Washington.

他们需要一次停摆才能做到这一点,才能提升这些问题,希望在停摆很久之后,选民们会想:“哦,那是真正在这些问题上为我而战的政党。”

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And it took a shutdown for them to do that and for them to elevate those issues in hopes that long past the shutdown voters will think, "Oh, that's the party that's actually fighting for me on those issues."

对吧?

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Right?

所以这是账本的一面,好的一面。

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So that's one side of the ledger, the good side.

这是好的一面。

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That's the good side.

但那场斗争的风险在于,它抬高了人们的期望,认为他们真的会在这些问题上赢得一些东西,对吧?

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But the risk of that fight was inflating people's expectations that they were actually going to win something on those issues, right?

他们必须说:“我们为此而战,因为我们想要XYZ的结果。”

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They had to say, "We're fighting for this because we want xyz outcomes."

而他们并没有得到这些结果。

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and they didn't get those outcomes.

他们得到了一个投票的承诺,但并不能保证通过。

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They've got the promise of a vote which is not guaranteed to pass,

对吧?

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right?

有人称之为“勾小指约定”(Pinky promise: 指一种非正式的、通常在儿童之间使用的承诺方式,表示非常认真)。

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Someone called it a pinky promise.

一个勾小指约定。

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A pinky promise.

就是这样。

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There you go.

因此,坏的一面是,这次停摆结束的时机,恰好是民主党在特朗普时代开始感受到一些难得的势头之时。

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And so the bad is that the timing of this shutdown ending is coming just as the Democratic party was actually starting to feel some rare momentum in the Trump era.

这正是民主党人选择退让的时候,似乎一切都进展顺利。

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That's exactly when the Democrats chose to cave, seemingly when things were going great.

因此,此刻选择退让的决定正在释放数月来一直在表面之下酝酿的愤怒和能量,那就是民主党人对自己的政党感到愤怒。

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And so this decision to cave at this moment is unleashing the anger and energy that has been urbling beneath the surface for months, which is the Democrats are angry at their own party.

他们一整年都是如此。

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And they have been all year.

他们基本上自从卡玛拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris)失败以来就一直如此。

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They have been basically since Kamala Harris lost.

而这次停摆则是一个值得注意的小小喘息,民主党人一度停止了互相憎恨。

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And the shutdown was this sort of notable little reprieve where Democrats kind of stopped hating Democrats for a little while.

我的意思是,昆尼皮亚克大学(Quinnipiac Poll: 美国昆尼皮亚克大学进行的一项民意调查)在夏季进行的一项民意调查显示,国会民主党人对民主党的支持率仅为39%。

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I mean, there was a Quinnipiac poll over the summer that showed that Democratic approval rating of Democrats in Congress was at 39%.

这是一个非常糟糕的数据。

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That's a really bad stat.

而同一家民调机构在10月份进行的一项民意调查显示,这个数字跃升了20个百分点,达到58%。

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And that same pollster took a poll in October and it had jumped 20 percentage points to 58%.

不怎么样,对吧?

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Not great, right?

人们并没有突然坠入爱河。

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People aren't suddenly in love.

这是一个很大的增长。

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It's a big increase.

我将非常感兴趣这些数字现在会是什么样子,因为希望的泡沫在这次停摆中被吹大又被戳破了。

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I'll be really interested what those numbers look like now that that bubble of hope had been inflated and deflated in this shutdown.

嗯,谈谈制造这个希望泡沫的后果,这个想法是停摆将导致国家医疗保健系统发生有意义的变化,我们不认为会发生,而且从更广泛的意义上说,这将表明民主党人愿意真正对抗总统,他们确实做到了,直到他们没有这样做。

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Well, talk about the consequences of having created this hope bubble, this idea that the shutdown was going to lead to meaningful changes in the country's healthcare system, which we don't think they are, and in a broader sense would show that Democrats were willing to really take on the president, which they were until they weren't.

我的意思是,进入停摆总是伴随着风险,对吧?

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I mean, this was always the risk of entering the shutdown, right?

查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)非常清楚他们为什么要停摆,他们在争取什么,但却没有一个能以政策胜利结束停摆的结局。

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Chuck Schumer was very clear about why they should have this shutdown, what they were fighting for, but there wasn't an endgame to get out of it with a win on policy.

所以,你总是会有一个糟糕的结局,正如人们向我描述的那样,对结局的担忧会很糟糕,即使在所有这些不太可能的情况下,他们在关于这个问题的民意调查中表现还不错。

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And so, you were always going to have this ugly ending, as people have described it to me, that the fear of how it was going to end was going to be bad, even if in all these unlikely ways they were actually doing okay in public polling about the issue.

因此,谁投票结束了停摆,我认为这真的很有启发性。

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And so who actually voted to end the shutdown I think is really revealing.

而那些投票结束停摆的人,是那些最不可能面临真正反弹的人,因为这八位民主党参议员,或与民主党结盟的参议员,明年都没有参加竞选。

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And the people who voted to actually end the shutdown are the people furthest removed from facing any real backlash because none of those eight Democratic senators, Democratic aligned senators are on the ballot next year.

他们要么退休,要么在2028年或2030年参加竞选。

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They're all either retiring or on the ballot in 2028 or 2030.

参议院有这些交错任期(Staggered terms: 指立法机构中不同成员的任期在不同时间开始和结束,以确保机构的连续性),这是你在华盛顿可以做的事情,尽量让最脆弱的人不必投最艰难的票。

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The Senate has these staggered terms and this is something you can do in Washington. try to keep your most vulnerable people out of having to cast the toughest votes.

有意思。

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Interesting.

你的意思是,民主党人,如果这是一种有组织的策略的话,我们对此并不完全确定,他们让最安全的、离选举最远的民主党参议员来做“脏活”,即在不兑现改善医疗保健承诺的情况下重新开放政府。

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You're saying that the Democrats, to the degree that this is any kind of organized strategy, which I guess we're not entirely sure, put the safest Democratic senators furthest from election out to do the quote unquote dirty work here of reopening the government without fulfilling the promise of improving healthcare.

是的。

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Yes.

所以,我认为这里的赞成票真的很有启发性,但有一张反对票我发现特别有趣。

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So, I think the yes votes here are really revealing, but there's one no vote that I found especially interesting.

谁?

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Who?

乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)。

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John Oaf.

他是明年最容易受到选举挑战的参议员。

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He is the most vulnerable senator up for election next year.

所以,他将面对选民。

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So, he will face the voters

他正在佐治亚州竞选,并且非常专注于他的大选,对吧?

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and he's running in Georgia and really focused on his general election, right?

目前没有人会在初选中与他竞争。

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No one's running against him in the primary right now.

而这里的反对票表明,他不想在这次竞选中冒险招致党内反弹。

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And what the no vote here says is that he doesn't want to risk backlash from inside his own party in this campaign.

无论是来自潜在的初选挑战者(Primary challenger: 指在党内初选中挑战现任或热门候选人的竞争者),他们可能来自那些愤怒的团体之一。

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Whether that's from a potential primary challenger who could get recruited from one of these angry groups

还是那些为他竞选提供资金的小额捐助者决定,你知道吗,也许我们对乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)没那么感兴趣了。

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or whether it's the small donors who are fueling his campaign deciding, you know what, maybe we're not so into John Oaf.

他不想冒险招致反弹。

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He doesn't want to risk backlash.

这很有趣,因为正如你所暗示的,乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)完全有理由最关注大选中的共和党对手,他们会说你应该投票重新开放政府。

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That's fascinating because as you're suggesting, John Oaf could reasonably be most focused on a Republican opponent in a general election saying you should have voted to reopen the government.

这才是这场竞选的关键。

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That's what matters in this race.

但你却说他更担心在潜在的初选中惹恼民主党人。

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And instead, what you're saying is he's more worried about upsetting Democrats in a potential primary.

这正是促使他在停摆问题上投票的原因。

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And that's what animated his vote on the shutdown.

最终,他投票支持继续政府停摆,因为他想看起来像是站在民主党基层一边。

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And in the end, he votes to keep the government shut down because he wants to look like he's on the side of the Democratic base.

我们认为这就是这里发生的事情。

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That's what we think happened here.

是的。

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Yeah.

我没有和奥索夫参议员谈过,但你可以看到有两种选择。

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And I have not talked to Senator Oaf here, but what you can see is that there are two choices.

选择一是投票重新开放政府,然后说:“我将违背我的党派,重新开放政府,即使我左翼的人因此攻击我。”

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Choice one is vote to reopen the government and say, "I'm going to buck my party and I'm going to reopen the government even if people in my left attack me for it."

对吧?

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Right?

这在很多地方都是一个卖点,对吧?

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That's a selling point in a lot of places, right?

所以这里有一个民主党人说,你知道,这不是正确的算计,如果他是在做一个出于政治动机的选择的话。

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And so here's a Democrat saying, you know, that's not the right calculus here to the extent he's making a politically motivated choice.

正确的算计是确保你自己的党喜欢你并支持你,把你视为一个斗士,因为你希望在即将到来的中期选举中获得这种能量的支持。

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The right calculus is to make sure that your own party likes you and supports you and sees you as a fighter because you want that energy behind you in a coming midterm election.

我还注意到,几位希望成为下一任总统候选人的民主党人今天早上,也就是周一,醒来后都认为这是一个糟糕的决定。

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I noticed as well that several of the Democrats hoping to be the next presidential nominee woke up this morning on Monday and decided that this was a terrible decision.

我认为他们中的很多人昨晚就决定了。

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I think a lot of them decided last night.

他们甚至没有等待。

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They didn't even wait.

你知道,他们从周日就开始发表这些声明。

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You know, like they started issuing these statements on Sunday.

你看到了加文·纽森(Gavin Newsom)的声明,他当时就说美国值得更好的。

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You saw it from Gavin Newsome who said just as it was done that America deserves better.

你看到了参议员克里斯·墨菲(Chris Murphy)的声明。

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You saw it from Chris Murphy who's in the Senate.

嗯,你可以看到我有多累。

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Um, you can see how tired I am.

我整个周末都在这里。

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I've been here all weekend.

过去几周我一直在努力防止这一刻的发生。

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Have been working throughout the past few weeks to try to prevent this moment.

他说我们本可以赢得这场斗争。

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Who said we could have won this fight?

我们放弃得太早了。

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We gave up too early.

这无法辩护。

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There's no way to defend this.

嗯,你生气是对的。

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Uh, and you are right to be angry about it.

我也很生气。

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I'm angry about it.

你看到了罗·卡纳(Ro Khanna)的声明。

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You saw it from Roana.

我们能恢复吗?

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Can we recover?

是的。

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Yes.

我认为恢复的第一步是实现代际变革和新的领导层。

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I think that the first step to recovering uh is to have generational change and new leadership.

有人。

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Someone

加利福尼亚州的国会议员说舒默该走了。

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congressman from California who said Schumer it's time for him to go

他没有抓住时机。

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he is not meeting the moment.

他与党派基层脱节了。

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He's out of touch with where the party's base is.

如果你正在考虑或计划在2028年作为民主党人竞选总统,你基本上已经谴责了这项协议。

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If you are thinking or planning to run for president as a Democrat in 2028, you've basically denounced this deal.

嗯,谢恩,既然罗·卡纳(Ro Khanna)提到了查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer),我们来谈谈他在这件事中的位置。

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Well, Shane, since Roana brought Chuck Schumer up, let's talk about his place in all of this.

在我们谈话的今天,有相当多的愤怒指向他。

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There's a fair bit of anger being directed at him today as we're speaking.

然而,是他把民主党人带入了停摆。

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Yet, he's the one who brought the Democrats into the shutdown.

他帮助制定了策略。

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He helped create the strategy.

他是现在历史上最长停摆的设计者,也是在这些特定问题上进行斗争的设计者,对吧?

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He is the architect of now what has been the longest shutdown in history and the architect of fighting on these particular issues, right?

他说这些是我们现在可以为之奋斗并以后可以赢取的东西。

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saying these are something that we can fight for now and win on later.

为选民提升这一点。

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Elevate this for voters.

让他们思考可负担性。

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Make them think about affordability.

让他们思考医疗保健。

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Make them think about healthcare.

他创造了信息。

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He created the message.

他让他们坚持信息,并让他的党团保持团结了40天。

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He's kept them on the message and he kept his conference together for 40 days.

嗯。

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Um

那么,为什么人们对他感到愤怒呢?

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so, so why are people mad at him?

因为他是领袖,对吧?

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Because he's the leader, right?

沮丧的是,查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer),如果他真的是领袖,就会让他的党派保持一致,直到他决定他没有和他们一起投票。

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The frustration is Chuck Schumer, if he was really the leader, would keep his party in line until he decided that the fact that he didn't vote with him.

当然。

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Sure.

那意味着他现在不支持结束停摆,但他并没有真正领导并充分约束他们,让他们进行他们想进行的斗争。

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That that means he's not supporting ending the shutdown right now, but he's not actually leading and keeping them in line sufficiently to have the fight that they want to have.

明白了。

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Got it.

所以,我只想观察我们现在所处的位置。

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So, I just want to observe where we are.

这是一个非常有趣的地方。

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And it's a really interesting place.

那些想成为总统的民主党人正在抨击这项由其他民主党人达成的协议。

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Democrats who want to be president are railing against this deal that was achieved by fellow Democrats.

这表明他们现在多么渴望与特朗普总统进行一场斗争。

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That's how much they want a fight right now against President Trump.

像乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)这样的参议员在一个非常摇摆不定的州。

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Senators like John Oaf in a very purple place.

他们正在反对这项以可能的方式结束停摆的协议。

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They're fighting this deal to end the shutdown the way that it's probably going to be ending.

这表明他现在多么渴望与特朗普总统进行一场斗争。

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That's how much he wants a fight against President Trump right now.

大多数参议院民主党人正在投票反对这项由他们自己的民主党同事达成的协议。

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The majority of Senate Democrats are voting against this deal struck by their own fellow Democrats.

这表明整个党派现在多么渴望与特朗普总统进行斗争,作为一种品牌信息。

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That's how much the whole party wants to be fighting President Trump right now as as a kind of a brand message.

这让我回想起我们的同事卡尔·赫尔斯(Carl Hulse)在40多天前停摆开始的那晚对我说的话。

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And that brings me back to what our colleague Carl Hulse said to me the night that the shutdown began 40ome days ago.

他认为特朗普时代从根本上改变了民主党。

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He argued that the Trump era has fundamentally changed the Democratic party.

从某种意义上说,它使其变得激进。

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In a sense, it's radicalized it.

该党希望尽可能大声地说,我们不是那些达成这项协议的八位温和派民主党人。

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And the party wants to say as loudly as possible, we are not the Democratic party of those eight moderates who did this deal.

那不是我们。

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That's not who we are.

我们的存在是为了对抗特朗普总统。

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We exist to fight President Trump.

如果这意味着我们必须进行一场“内战”,如果这意味着我们将把愤怒发泄在我们自己的参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)身上,那就这样吧。

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And if that means we have to fight ourselves in a kind of civil war, if that means we're going to take out our anger at our own Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, so be it.

我们将成为对抗特朗普的政党。

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We will be the party of fighting Trump.

句号。

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Period.

在特朗普的第二个任期内,民主党的一个决定性力量是选民对自己的政党感到愤怒。

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One of the defining forces for Democrats in Trump's second term is that voters are angry at their own party.

我认为这部分导致了停摆。

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And I think that's part of what gets us into the shutdown.

这部分解释了他们为什么会对停摆的结果感到失望。

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It's part of why they're going to be disappointed by the results of the shutdown.

我们拭目以待明年会发生什么,对吧?

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And we're going to see what that looks like next year, right?

那种愤怒,那种能量,以前曾帮助政党夺回权力。

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That anger, that energy, that has worked for parties before to take back power.

所以我认为民主党人在这里正试图小心翼翼。

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And so I think Democrats are trying to tread carefully here.

他们想让选民保持愤怒,但他们希望将愤怒引向其他政党。

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They want to keep the voters angry, but they would like to direct the anger at the other party.

目前,愤怒正指向内部。

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At the moment, it's being directed internally.

这又回到了那个“自己挖坑”的时刻,对吧?

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And that's getting back to that self-owned moment, right?

上周你看到愤怒的选民出来投票,把全国各地的共和党人赶下台。

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Which is last week you saw angry voters turn out and vote out Republicans all across the country.

而现在担心的是,如果我们把这种愤怒转回我们自己身上怎么办?

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And the concern is what if we've turned that anger back at us now?

他们将尽快努力利用这种能量、这种愤怒、这种沮丧,并说:“我们在这里打了一场漂亮的仗。

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And as quickly as possible, they're going to try to harness that energy, that anger, that frustration, and say, "We fought the good fight here.

你们希望我们战斗。

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You wanted us to fight.

我们战斗了。

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We did the fight.

即使我们没有得到我们想要的一切,我们也向你们展示了我们能够而且将会这样做,而且这次结局的细节将比他们最初进行这场斗争的事实更快被遗忘。

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And even if we didn't get everything we wanted, we showed you that we can and would and that the details of how this ended are going to be forgotten far sooner than the fact that they had the fight in the first place.

换句话说,现在的讯息是:别担心结局如何。

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In other words, the message now is don't worry about the way this ended.

只要庆幸它发生过就行了。

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Just be glad it even happened.

只要记住我们进行过的斗争。

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Just remember the fight we had.

嗯,谢恩,非常感谢你。

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Well, Shane, thank you very much.

谢谢你。

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Thank you.

周一晚上,参议院批准了一揽子支出法案,该法案得到了八名民主党参议员和所有共和党参议员的支持,将结束政府停摆。

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On Monday night, the Senate approved a package of spending bills backed by the eight Senate Democrats and every Senate Republican that would end the government shutdown.

这些法案现在将提交给共和党控制的众议院,预计众议院将在本周晚些时候通过它们。

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Those bills now head to the Republican controlled House, which is expected to adopt them later this week.

如果发生这种情况,政府将在本周末前重新开放。

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If that happens, the government will reopen by the end of the week.

我们马上回来。

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We'll be right back.

其他新闻速览

以下是您还需要知道的其他信息。

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Here's what else you need to know. Day.

周一,最高法院的法官们驳回了一项要求他们重新考虑推翻法院2015年具有里程碑意义的同性婚姻合法化裁决的请求。

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At the Supreme Court on Monday, the justices denied a request that they consider overturning the court's landmark 2015 decision to legalize same-sex marriage.

这项裁决受到同性恋美国人及其盟友的密切关注,他们担心法院的保守派多数可能会以推翻全国堕胎权的方式,推翻同性婚姻裁决。

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The decision was closely watched by gay Americans and their allies who feared that the court's conservative majority might reverse the gay marriage ruling in the same way that they eliminated the nationwide right to an abortion.

但最高法院同意审理一项挑战全国邮寄选票规则的案件。

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But the high court agreed that it would hear a case challenging mail-in ballot rules across the country.

该案件围绕密西西比州的5天宽限期,该宽限期允许选举官员计算在选举日邮寄但几天后才送达的选票。

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The case revolves around Mississippi's 5-day grace period, which allows election officials to count ballots that have been mailed on election day, but arrive a few days later.

几十个州都有与密西西比州类似的宽限期。

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Dozens of states have similar grace periods as Mississippi's.

因此,如果法院认定密西西比州的规则非法,可能会在2026年选举前造成混乱。

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So, if the court finds that Mississippi's rules are illegal, it could create chaos leading up to the 2026 elections.

今天这集节目由克莱尔·坦尼塞特(Claire Tennisceter)和安娜·福利(Anna Foley)制作。

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Today's episode was produced by Claire Tennisceter and Anna Foley.

由雷切尔·奎斯特(Rachel Quester)和帕特里夏·威林斯(Patricia Willins)编辑。

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It was edited by Rachel Quester and Patricia Willins.

包含罗文·埃维斯托(Rowan Evesto)、丹·鲍威尔(Dan Powell)和玛丽安·洛萨诺(Marian Lozano)的音乐。

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Contains music by Rowan Evesto, Dan Powell, and Marian Lozano.

由艾丽莎·莫克斯利(Alyssa Moxley)进行工程制作。

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and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley.

《The Daily》节目到此结束。

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That's it for the daily.

我是迈克尔·布巴罗(Michael Bubaro)。

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I'm Michael Bubaro.

明天见。

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See you tomorrow.