废除美国气候法规的秘密计划 New York Times Podcasts 2026-02-12

废除气候法规的法律基础

Michael Bubaro: 大家好,我是《纽约时报》的Michael Bubaro,这里是《每日》。预计今天将采取一项具有里程碑意义的行动,特朗普政府将取消其自身应对气候变化的法律权力。我的同事Lisa Freriedman在过去几周一直在拼凑内部故事,讲述一小群活动家如何将这个曾经看似不可能的目标变为现实。今天是2月12日星期四。Lisa,欢迎回到《每日》。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: From the New York Times, I'm Michael Bubaro. This is the daily. With a single monumental action expected today, the Trump administration will eliminate its own legal authority to fight climate change. My colleague, Lisa Freriedman, has spent the past few weeks piecing together the inside story of how a small group of activists turned that once improbable goal into reality. It's Thursday, February 12th. Lisa, welcome back to the Daily.

Lisa Freriedman: 谢谢,感谢邀请。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Thank you. Thanks for having me.

Michael Bubaro: 那么,Lisa,去年夏天你曾爆料称,特朗普政府正计划废除整个政府监管温室气体的法律基础。请你再向我们解释一下这个法律基础是什么,以及为什么废除它会产生如此重大的影响。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: So, over the summer, Lisa, you broke the story that the Trump administration was planning to roll back the legal basis for the entire government's ability to regulate greenhouse gases. Just remind us what that legal basis was and why its elimination would be so consequential.

Lisa Freriedman: 当然。它被称为危害认定(Endangerment Finding),你可以把它想象成美国监管气候污染物的“脊梁”。国会从未明确告知环境保护局(EPA)它可以监管导致全球变暖的排放。但在2007年,最高法院在一项具有里程碑意义的裁决中,即马萨诸塞州诉EPA案(Massachusetts versus EPA),裁定温室气体在法律上属于污染物。由于EPA被要求设定限制,被要求监管有害污染物,法院告诉该机构,你需要确定这些温室气体,如二氧化碳、甲烷等,是否危害人类健康和福祉。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Sure. It's called the endangerment finding and you can think of it like the spine of America's ability to regulate climate pollutants. Congress never explicitly told the EPA that it could regulate planet warming emissions. But in 2007, the Supreme Court ruled in a landmark ruling, it's called Massachusetts versus EPA, that greenhouse gases qualify as pollutants under the law. And because EPA is required to set limits, required to regulate damaging pollutants, the court told the agency, you need to determine whether these greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane, others, whether they endanger health and welfare.

Michael Bubaro: 嗯。两年后,EPA引用大量科学证据,发布了现在被称为危害认定的报告,指出六种温室气体确实对公众健康和环境构成危险。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Mhm. Two years later, the EPA, citing a massive body of scientific evidence, came out with what is now called the endangerment finding that six greenhouse gases do pose a danger to public health and the environment

Lisa Freriedman: 因此应该受到监管。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: and therefore should be regulated

Michael Bubaro: 因此应该受到监管。所以,如果你把危害认定看作是脊梁,那么它就是允许对汽车碳排放、发电厂烟囱排放、石油和天然气井泄漏的甲烷进行监管的基础。如果废除危害认定,就像特朗普政府即将要做的那样,那么在美国监管温室气体排放就没有了任何法律或科学依据。政府基本上放弃了其权力。恕我不再混用比喻,但当危害认定消失时,所有源于它的法规都将像纸牌屋一样倒塌。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: and therefore should be regulated. So if you think of the endangerment finding as the spine, that is what has allowed for regulations on carbon emissions from automobiles, from power plant smoke stacks, methane from oil and gas well leaks. And if you repeal the endangerment finding, as the Trump administration is about to do, then there is no basis, there's no legal basis or scientific basis for regulating greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. the government essentially gives up its authority. And not to mix metaphors, but when the endangerment finding goes away, all of these regulations that stem from it fall like a house of cards.

幕后推手:保守派律师

Michael Bubaro: 对。在我们第一次谈话中,当你第一次向听众解释这一切时,Lisa,你告诉我,废除危害认定并从根本上削弱我们监管温室气体的法律框架的努力,都是在幕后进行的。很难理解它是如何发生的,以及谁参与其中。但现在几个月过去了,你有了关于这些幕后工作具体情况的报道,特别是谁在做这些幕后工作。那么,告诉我们你发现了什么。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Right. And during our first conversation when you first explained all this to our listeners, Lisa, you had told me that the efforts to eliminate the endangerment finding and to fundamentally defang the legal framework behind how we regulate greenhouse gases. All of that had unfolded behind closed doors. It was very hard to understand how it had happened and who was involved in it. But now all these months later, you have reporting on what exactly that behindthe-scenes effort looked like and notably who was doing this behind-the-scenes work. So tell us about what you found.

Lisa Freriedman: 看到特朗普政府如此迅速而全面地采取行动推翻危害认定,真是令人震惊。特朗普总统一上任,在2025年1月,他就采取了早期行动之一,指示EPA就是否重新考虑这一认定作出裁决。而我们的报道显示,这并非偶然。这并非多年坚持不懈的结果,这种情况有时在华盛顿发生。这得益于一小群训练有素的保守派律师,他们多年来秘密工作,为共和党总统能够彻底废除政府监管气候变化的能力的那一刻做准备。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: So, it was pretty stunning to see how quickly and comprehensively the Trump administration moved to reverse the endangerment finding. As soon as President Trump got into office, it was one of the early moves in in January 2025 to tell the EPA to make a ruling on whether to reconsider this finding. And what our reporting showed was this wasn't just an accident. This wasn't just years of persistence coming to fruition. That happens sometimes in Washington. This was made possible by a very small group of highly trained conservative lawyers who had spent years working in secret to prepare for the moment when a Republican president could obliterate the government's ability to regulate climate change.

Michael Bubaro: 那么这些人是谁?你说的这些保守派律师?

Original English

Michael Bubaro: So who are these people? These conservative lawyers you're talking about?

Lisa Freriedman: 这真的要从两个人说起:Mandy GunnnessJonathan Breitbill绿色新政(Green New Deal)不是一个严肃的提议。它读起来就像卡尔·马克思的圣诞清单(Karl Marx's Christmas list),是一份苏联式的中央计划文件,要求政府接管农业、交通、住房和医疗保健部门。Gunnness在反对气候政策方面有着非常悠久的历史,不是反对气候变化,而是反对气候政策。她曾为吉姆·英霍夫参议员(Senator Jim Inhof)工作,英霍夫写了一本书,名为《最大的骗局:全球变暖阴谋》(The Greatest Hoax, the global warming conspiracy)。以防我们忘记,因为我们一直听到2014年是有记录以来最热的一年,我问主席,你知道这是什么吗?这是一个雪球。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: It really starts with two people. Mandy Gunnness and Jonathan Breitbill. The Green New Deal is not a serious proposal. It reads like Karl Marx's Christmas list and is a Soviet style central planning document calling for a government takeover of the agricultural, transportation, housing, and healthcare sectors. Gunca has a very long history fighting climate policies, not climate change, climate policies. She used to work for Senator Jim Inhof, who wrote a book called The Greatest Hoax, the global warming conspiracy. In case we have forgotten because we keep hearing that 2014 has been the warmest year on record, I asked the chair, you know what this is? It's a snowball.

Michael Bubaro: 他有一天在二月份的参议院议事厅扔了一个雪球,以证明气候变化根本不存在。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: And he one day threw a snowball on the Senate floor in February to prove that climate change was not a thing.

Lisa Freriedman: 这只是从外面拿来的。所以外面非常非常冷,非常不合时宜。所以,总统先生,接住这个。嗯。Gunnness就是那个递给他雪球的助手。这也是她在华盛顿非常出名的事情之一。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: And that's just from outside here. So it's very, very cold out, very unseasonal. So here, Mr. President, catch this. Mhm. Guncura is the the aid who handed him that snowball. And that's one of the things she's pretty well known for in in Washington.

Michael Bubaro: 嗯。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Huh.

Lisa Freriedman: 她进入了第一届特朗普政府,在推动美国退出巴黎协定方面发挥了重要作用,特朗普总统最终也这样做了。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: She enters the first Trump administration where she is instrumental in pushing for the United States to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which President Trump eventually did.

Michael Bubaro: 嗯。在拜登政府期间,她极力反对拜登为减少汽车、发电厂等排放而制定的政策。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Mhm. During the Biden administration, she argued strenuously against policies that he put in place to reduce emissions from automobiles and power plants and the rest.

Lisa Freriedman: 从第一天起,他就信守了“关闭化石燃料”的承诺,他和民主党人采取了100多项行动,旨在使石油和天然气的开发和市场供应变得更加困难。她基本上认为,应对气候变化的政策比气候变化本身更有害。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: From day one, he's held true to that promise to quote, "shut down fossil fuel, and he and the Democrats have taken over 100 actions aimed at making it harder for oil and gas to be developed and delivered to market." essentially making the argument that policies to address climate change are more harmful than climate change itself.

Lisa Freriedman: 农民和美国人都不应该担心气候变化。他们应该担心的是以气候变化之名推行的政策,这些政策造成的损害要大得多。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: It's not climate change that farmers nor Americans should be worried about. It's the policies being pushed in the name of climate change that stand to do far much more damage.

Lisa Freriedman: 她试图废除危害认定的搭档是一位名叫Jonathan Breitbill的律师。最高法院将审理清洁空气法(Clean Air Act)第111D1节中存在的限制问题。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Her partner in trying to repeal the endangerment finding was an attorney named Jonathan Breitbel. before the Supreme Court will be the question of what limits exist in Clean Air Act section 111D1.

Lisa Freriedman: 他曾在第一届特朗普政府司法部任职。我们采访过的每个人都形容他是一位非常敏锐的法律人才,对清洁空气法清洁水法(Clean Water Act)了如指掌。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: He had served in the Justice Department under the first Trump administration. Everyone we have talked to has described him as a very sharp legal mind who really knows his way around the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act.

Lisa Freriedman: 核心问题可以非常简洁地表述如下:EPA是否有权根据EPA认为的最佳减排系统所能达到的排放率来确定排放率?句号。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: The Hinge issue can really succinctly be stated as follows. Does EPA have the authority to determine the emissions rate based on what's achievable by what EPA thinks is the best system of emissions reduction? Period.

Lisa Freriedman: 他曾在法庭上辩称,民主党政府在实施气候变化法规的努力中确实越权了。他基本上是在处理危害认定的下游影响。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: And has made the argument in court that Democratic administrations have really overreached in their efforts to impose regulations to address climate change. He was essentially dealing with the downstream effects of the endangerment finding

Lisa Freriedman: 试图梳理其中包含的各种条款和指示,会让你头晕目眩。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: and it makes your head swim to try and parse through the various clauses and instructions that are contained there.

Lisa Freriedman: 由于危害认定EPA一直在应对法规的反复无常。这些法规在民主党政府中被制定,在共和党政府中被废除,并且一直都在法庭上被争论。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Because of the endangerment finding, EPA has been dealing with a whiplash of regulations. They have been created in Democratic administrations, erased in Republican administrations, and fought in courts the entire time.

Michael Bubaro: 嗯。撤销危害认定将完全消除这种情况,这也是GunnnessBreitbill密谋要做的事情。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Mhm. Withdrawing the endangerment finding eliminates this situation entirely and that's what Gounka and Breitbel plotted to do.

Michael Bubaro: 他们是如何实际做到这一点的?

Original English

Michael Bubaro: And how do they actually go about doing that?

Lisa Freriedman: 所以在2022年夏天,GunnnessBreitbill开始为一个新的大项目寻求资金。他们想创建一个秘密行动来废除危害认定。他们向保守派组织推销他们的想法。他们要求大约200万美元,用于开展科学研究和从那些不同意主流科学的科学家那里获取研究成果。他们将开始为废除危害认定铺设法律依据。所有这些都可以在下一任共和党总统上任时使用。他们希望唐纳德·特朗普在第一天就能做到。他们最终从一个保守派组织,即美国传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)获得了资金。美国传统基金会后来主导了2025计划(Project 2025),这是下一任共和党总统的蓝图。而Mandy Gunnness2025计划撰写了EPA章节。所以这两位律师,GunnnessBreitbill,他们确保了这项旨在废除环境法规、针对危害认定的事业,被美国传统基金会这个在共和党政治中拥有巨大影响力的主要保守派智库所采纳。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: So in the summer of 2022, Gounka and Breitbill start seeking funding for a big new project. They want to create a secret operation to kill the endangerment finding. They pitched conservative organizations. They asked for about $2 million for the ability to work on scientific studies and research from scientists who disagree with the mainstream science. They would start laying out the legal case for repealing the endangerment finding. All of these things were things that could be used by a next Republican president. They hoped Donald Trump on day one. They did eventually receive funding from a conservative organization, the Heritage Foundation. The Heritage Foundation would go on to lead Project 2025, the blueprint for the next Republican president. And Mandy Gunnness wrote the EPA chapter for Project 2025. So these two lawyers, Gunessa and Breitbill, they are ensuring that this cause of rolling back environmental regulations of going after the endangerment finding that it gets taken up by a major conservative think tank in Heritage with a ton of influence in Republican politics.

Michael Bubaro: 完全正确。然后,与此同时,还有另外两位律师,他们是更受瞩目的人物,他们也在以自己的方式努力推翻危害认定

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Exactly. Right. Then in tandem, we have two other lawyers, much more high-profile figures, who are working in their own right to bring down the endeavor finding.

Michael Bubaro: 那是谁?

Original English

Michael Bubaro: And who is that?

Lisa Freriedman: Russ VoteJeff Clark

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Russ Vote and Jeff Clark.

Michael Bubaro: 更广为人知。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Much better known,

Lisa Freriedman: 更广为人知的人物。Russell Vote,我们知道,在拜登执政期间,他创办了自己的智库,美国复兴中心(Center for Renewing America),他们在那里维持着MAGA运动的活力。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: much better known figures. Russell Vote, as we know, during the Biden years, starts the starts a think tank of his own, the Center for Renewing America, where they were keeping the MAGA movement alive.

Michael Bubaro: 嗯。Jeff Clark几十年来一直致力于反对危害认定

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Mhm. Jeff Clark has been in the fight against the endangerment finding for decades.

Lisa Freriedman: 在我看来,EPA太庞大了。它被刺激资金搞得臃肿不堪,而且它似乎一心想要扩张。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: EPA, it seems to me, is too big. It's bloated on stimulus money and uh it seems uh hellbent on expansion

Lisa Freriedman: 在危害认定出现之前,他曾上法庭辩称EPA不应该拥有处理温室气体的法律权力。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: before there ever was an endangerment finding. He went to court to argue that the EPA

Lisa Freriedman: 不具备也不应该具备处理温室气体的法律权力。对EPA来说,这是否荒谬并不重要。如果它的法规会导致荒谬的后果,对国民经济造成巨大损害。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: doesn't have and shouldn't have the legal authority to address greenhouse gases. It doesn't matter to EPA if it's absurd. If its regulations are going to lead to absurd consequences that inflict massive harm on the national economy,

Lisa Freriedman: 他输了那场官司,据我们所知,这确实是Jeff Clark多年来的一个动力因素。他认为这是在纠正一个错误。当然,Jeff Clark还因另一件事而闻名,我想我们的许多听众都会记得,那就是在特朗普第一任期结束时,他从司法部深处冒出来,成为特朗普总统的盟友,试图推翻2020年大选。以至于特朗普曾短暂考虑让他担任代理司法部长。这让司法部的许多人感到非常害怕,以至于他们中的许多人威胁说如果发生这种情况就辞职。总统退缩了。但Clark因此被称为主要的选举否认者。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: he loses that and that from from everything we have been told is really a motivating factor for years with Jeff Clark. What he sees as writing a wrong. Of course, the other thing Jeff Clark is known for, and I think a lot of our listeners will remember this, is that at the end of the first Trump term, he emerges from deep within the Justice Department as an ally of President Trump and trying to overturn the 2020 election. So much so that Trump briefly considers making him the acting attorney general. And that so scares people at the Department of Justice that many of them threaten to quit if it happens. President backs down. But Clark becomes known as a major election denier.

Michael Bubaro: 没错。所以到了2022年末、2023年,Jeff ClarkRuss Vote住在国会山的一栋联排别墅里,Vote曾抱怨那里鸽子成灾,他们正在为新总统起草行政命令,以消除气候保护措施。与此同时,GunnnessBreitbill正在收集他们所谓的“信息武器库”,以支持废除危害认定。果然,特朗普总统赢得了总统职位。我们这里谈论的四个人中,有三位,BreitbillClarkVote,回到了政府中。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: That's right. And so by late 2022, 2023, Jeff Clark and Russ Vote are enscconced in a rowhouse in Capitol Hill that vote had complained was infested with pigeons and drafting executive orders for a new president to use to eliminate climate protections. And then at the same time, Gunness and Breitbill are collecting what they have called an arsenal of information to support the repeal of the endangerment finding. Sure enough, President Trump wins the presidency. Three out of four of the people that we're talking about here, Breitbill, Clark, and vote go back into the administration

Lisa Freriedman: 并且能够为总统提供一份非常清晰的路线图,以实现美国历史上最大的气候去监管化。这正是目前正在遵循的。我们马上回来。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: and are able to hand the president a very clear road map for the biggest climate deregulation in American history. And that's what's being followed right now. We'll be right back.

废除的科学与法律依据

Michael Bubaro: 那么,Lisa,一旦这些主张废除危害认定的倡导者进入白宫,并能够实际废除它,他们会提出什么样的技术和法律依据来尝试这样做?

Original English

Michael Bubaro: So Lisa, once a bunch of these advocates of repealing the endangerment finding end up inside the White House and in a position to actually repeal it, what's the technical case, what's the legal case that they make to try to do that?

Lisa Freriedman: 所以,你还记得我告诉过你,奥巴马政府之所以制定危害认定,是因为最高法院表示,为了监管这些气体,你需要确定它们对人类健康和环境有害。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: So, remember I told you that the Obama administration wrote the endangerment finding because the Supreme Court said in order to regulate these gases, you need to determine that these are harmful to human health and the environment.

Michael Bubaro: 嗯。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Mhm.

Lisa Freriedman: 所以现在这个政府,特朗普政府,正在审视那个认定,他们说你使用的科学是我们不认同的,他们说法律依据存在问题。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: So now this administration, the Trump administration is looking at that finding and they're saying the science that you used is something we don't agree with and they're saying the legal rationale is problematic.

Michael Bubaro: 那么从科学开始。他们为什么质疑科学,这有说服力吗?他们认为2009年对气候变化影响的预测过于悲观。他们支持这一主张的证据是去年五位精选的气候怀疑论者为能源部(Department of Energy)秘密撰写的一份报告。它的目的是支持废除危害认定。不出所料,结论是气候变化威胁被夸大了。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: So start with the science. Why do they dispute the science and is it compelling? So they have made the case that the predictions that were made about the impacts of climate change back in 2009 were too pessimistic. Their evidence to support that claim is a report that five handpicked climate contrarians wrote in secret for the Department of Energy last year. It was designed to support the repeal of the endangerment finding. And no surprise to anyone, the conclusion was that climate change threats have been overblown.

Lisa Freriedman: 有趣。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Interesting.

Lisa Freriedman: 众多科学家告诉我们两件事。是的,地球的状况比2009年预测的要好,因为国际社会已经采取了行动,虽然不够多,也不够快,但确实为减少排放做出了努力。但同样真实的是,进入大气的每一丁点排放都会导致更多的变暖,从而导致更多的健康影响,以及我们知道继续危害人类健康和环境的所有事情。科学家们说,这项研究今天比2009年更加确凿。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: And what multitudes of scientists have told us are two things. Yeah, the planet is better off than what was predicted in 2009 because the international community has acted not enough, not fast enough, but has done work towards reducing emissions. But what's also true is that every bit of emissions that enters the atmosphere leads to more warming, which leads to more health impacts, and all of the things that we know continue to endanger human health and the environment. Scientists say that that research is even more ironclad today than it was in 2009.

Lisa Freriedman: 接下来是特朗普政府废除危害认定的法律论据。有几个。退一步说,危害认定源于1970年的清洁空气法。这个EPA正在辩称,清洁空气法只允许EPA监管它所谓的“地方性和区域性污染物”,比如工业源、工厂、发电厂的烟尘,这些东西吸入后对身体非常有害。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Then there's the Trump administration's legal arguments for repealing the endangerment finding. There's a couple. Take a step back. The endangerment finding that flowed from a law, the 1970 Clean Air Act. This EPA is arguing that the Clean Air Act only allows EPA to regulate what it calls local and regional pollutants, things like soot from industrial sources, factories, power plants, stuff that's really bad when you breathe it in.

Lisa Freriedman: 温室气体排放不是那样的。二氧化碳、甲烷,你知道,所有这些气体,它们会扩散到大气中,它们会捕获热量,它们会持续几十年到几个世纪,并改变气候。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Greenhouse gas emissions don't work that way. carbon dioxide, methane, you know, all these gases, they disperse into the atmosphere, they trap heat, they linger from decades to centuries and alter the climate.

Lisa Freriedman: 所以,这个EPA正在辩称,它根本没有法律权力处理这类,我们称之为“全球性污染物”。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: So, this EPA is is making the argument that it just does not have the legal authority to deal with those kinds of, let's call them, global pollutants.

Michael Bubaro: 有趣。所以他们的论点是,危害认定误解了清洁空气法,认为你可以监管那些按定义并非地方性的温室气体。它们最终会进入天空,远离其原始来源,因此危害认定在法律上是不健全的。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Interesting. So their argument is that the endangerment finding misunderstands the clean air act and thinks that you can regulate greenhouse gases that by definition are not local. They end up in the sky. They end up far from their original source and therefore the endangerment finding is not legally sound.

Lisa Freriedman: 完全正确。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Exactly.

Michael Bubaro: 律师们同意这个论点吗?

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Do lawyers agree with that argument?

Lisa Freriedman: 意见不一。我的意思是,有些保守派律师认为EPA有一个很好的案子。你知道,我们采访过的环境律师说,乔治·W·布什政府曾提出类似的论点来捍卫其不发布危害认定的决定,但最终败诉。但还有另一个相关的论点。嗯。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: They're mixed. I mean, there are some conservative lawyers who think that the EPA has a really good case to make. You know, environmental attorneys that we've we've spoken to have said that the George W. Bush administration made similar arguments to defend its decision not to issue an endangerment finding and lost. But there's another argument that's linked. Mhm.

Lisa Freriedman: 自2009年以来,最高法院多次裁定反对那些要求对工业和经济进行重大变革的环境法规。因此,特朗普政府表示,基于新的法律环境,以及许多源于危害认定的法规在他们看来需要进行全面的技术和经济变革这一事实。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Since 2009, the Supreme Court has repeatedly ruled against environmental regulations that require big transformational changes to industry and the economy. And so the Trump administration is saying based on that new legal landscape and the fact that so many of the regulations that have stemmed from the endangerment finding require in their view sweeping technology economic changes.

Michael Bubaro: 嗯。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Mhm.

Lisa Freriedman: 他们辩称,其源头,即危害认定,应该被推翻。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: They're arguing that the source, the endangerment finding should be overturned.

Michael Bubaro: 太棒了。如果许多源于危害认定的法规最终被最高法院驳回,那么这些法规的成果,即认定本身,也应该被视为非法。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Fascinating. If so many regulations that flow from the endangerment finding eventually get struck down by the Supreme Court, then the fruit of those regulations, the finding itself should itself be seen as illegal

Lisa Freriedman: 除非国会明确授权EPA监管温室气体排放,而几十年来他们从未这样做过。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: unless Congress explicitly gives the EPA authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, which after decades they have never done

Michael Bubaro: 而本届国会极不可能赋予它这项权力。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: and this Congress is very unlikely to ever give it that power.

废除后的影响与未来

Lisa Freriedman: 绝对不可能。好的。那么,既然我们了解了特朗普政府的论点,请解释他们将如何把这些论点转化为危害认定的终结。我们预计政府将采取什么行动来终结这项认定?所以,我们预计在星期四,EPA的行政长官Lee Zelden,他曾说过他计划“将匕首刺入气候变化宗教的心脏”(原话),将宣布危害认定的终结,但这并不是故事的结局。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Definitely not. Okay. So, now that we understand the Trump administration's arguments here, just explain how they're going to turn those arguments into the end of the endangerment finding. What do we expect the administration to do to end the finding? So, what we expect is on Thursday, the administrator of the EPA, Lee Zelden, who has said that he plans to drive a dagger through the heart of the climate change religion, his words, will announce the end of the endangerment finding, but it's not the end of the story.

Michael Bubaro: 意思是?

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Meaning,

Lisa Freriedman: 环保团体和各州将立即提起诉讼,这将在未来几年内通过法院解决。我们预计法院会发生什么,以及这很可能在法院中达到多高的级别?

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: environmental groups, states are going to immediately sue and this will be played out in the courts over the next several years. And what do we expect will happen in the courts and just how high up in the courts is this likely to go?

Lisa Freriedman: 嗯,这就是问题所在。我们知道我们一直在谈论的那个团体,那些制定了这份路线图的人,他们希望看到什么,那就是这个案子能提交到最高法院。如果发生这种情况,保守派运动中很多人希望马萨诸塞州诉EPA案这个具有里程碑意义的气候变化案件能够被推翻或显著削弱。所以他们的希望是,危害认定以某种方式提交到最高法院,使得最高法院的保守派多数能够推翻最初的最高法院裁决,正是这个裁决使得危害认定得以存在。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Well, that's the thing. We know what the group that we've been talking about, the the folks who laid out this road map hope to see, and that is that this case gets before the Supreme Court. And if that happens, there is a lot of hope in the conservative movement that the landmark climate change case, Massachusetts versus EPA, could be overturned or significantly weakened. So their hope is that the endangerment finding ends up before the Supreme Court in such a way that a conservative majority of the Supreme Court would overturn the original Supreme Court ruling that allows the endangerment finding to have ever come into existence.

Michael Bubaro: 你一语中的。如果发生这种情况,未来的总统将无法恢复旨在解决温室气体排放的法规,除非国会明确表示“去这样做”。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: You hit the nail on the head. And if that happens, a future president would not be able to reinstate regulations addressing greenhouse gas emissions unless and until Congress explicitly said, "Go do that."

Michael Bubaro: 让我们假设一下,Lisa,我们的法律体系确实允许危害认定消失。我想谈谈这可能对环境和工业造成的反响。我们先从对工业的影响开始,这些工业现在在这些法规下运作,我猜这些法规会突然开始消失。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: And let's presume for just a moment, Lisa, that our legal system does allow the endangerment finding to go away. I want to talk about the repercussions of that on the environment on industry and let's just start with the impact on industry that now operates under these regulations that I presume suddenly would start to go away.

Lisa Freriedman: 嗯,工业界会得到它一直声称想要的确定性,对吧?它会知道它不会再面临长达一年半的反复无常。民主党上台开始监管发电厂、汽车等等,然后共和党政府上台,取消或削弱这些法规。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Well, one thing that industry would get is the certainty that it has said it always wants, right? it would know that it would not face what has been a decade and a half of whiplash. Democrats come in and start to regulate power plants and automobiles and the rest and then a Republican administration comes in and removes or weakens them.

Michael Bubaro: 嗯。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Mhm.

Lisa Freriedman: 将会有一个新的竞争环境,其中不包括监管限制。所以问题是,这会导致工业界污染更多吗?

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: There would be a new playing field and it would not include regulatory restrictions. So the question is will this lead to industries polluting more,

Michael Bubaro: 对吗?

Original English

Michael Bubaro: right?

Lisa Freriedman: 是的,我们不知道。我的意思是,当然有可能因为公司已经投入了数十亿美元用于清洁技术,无论是电动汽车还是发电厂的污染控制,它们会继续这样做。还有公众压力,你知道,公司非常关心它们的形象,以及它们是否正在应对气候变化这样的挑战。但现实是,如果完全不受束缚,就像这个EPA即将要做的那样,我们真的不知道工业界会如何反应。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: And yeah, we we don't know. I mean, it is certainly possible that because companies have already put billions of dollars into clean technology, whether it's for EVs or pollution controls in power plants, that they will continue to do so. There's also public pressure and you know, companies very much care about how they are seen and whether they are stepping up to a challenge like climate change. But the reality is left completely unshackled as this EPA is about to do, we don't really know how industry will react.

Michael Bubaro: 那么,鉴于这种不确定性,废除危害认定对环境和整个气候变化意味着什么?这是否突然间几乎完全掌握在工业界手中了?

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Well, given that uncertainty, what would the elimination of the endangerment finding mean for the environment and for climate change at large? Is that suddenly now pretty much in the hands of industry?

Lisa Freriedman: 这是一个很难回答的问题。我的意思是,是的。部分原因在于特朗普政府已经相当有效地限制了各州在应对气候变化方面可以做的一些事情。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: It's such a hard question to answer. I mean, yes. And part of the reason why is that the Trump administration has already pretty effectively restricted some of the things that states can do to address climate change on their own.

Michael Bubaro: 比如什么?

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Like what?

Lisa Freriedman: 加利福尼亚州(California)是全国唯一一个可以制定比联邦政府更严格的环境法规的州。它需要豁免才能做到这一点。加利福尼亚州曾试图制定更严格的汽车排放规则。他们曾计划在未来十年左右取消内燃机汽车的销售。但特朗普政府和国会撤销了这项豁免。我看不出加利福尼亚州至少在未来三年内能获得另一项豁免。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: California is the only state in the country that can set more stringent environmental regulations than the federal government. It needs a waiver to do that. California tried to set even stricter automobile emissions rules. They had a plan to eliminate the sales of combustion engine vehicles, you know, in the next decade or so. But the Trump administration and Congress rescended that waiver. I can't see California getting another waiver, at least during the next three years.

Michael Bubaro: 嗯。所以这确实束缚了不只是加利福尼亚州,还有其他可能希望在汽车方面采取非常雄心勃勃行动的志同道合的州的手脚。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Mhm. So that really ties the hands of not just California but other like-minded states that might want to do something very ambitious on automobiles.

Michael Bubaro: 那么,在没有新的重大州级法规,以及联邦政府根本不想监管大部分温室气体排放的情况下,科学家们说世界会变成什么样子?

Original English

Michael Bubaro: So in the absence of major new state regulation and a federal government that doesn't want to regulate most of these greenhouse emissions at all. What do scientists say that the world starts to look like?

Lisa Freriedman: 科学家们很担心。我的意思是,美国是历史上最大的气候变化排放国。它是每年碳污染和温室气体的第二大排放国。如果美国不尽其责,许多国家可能会开始怀疑他们为什么要尽责?而最重要的是中国。这是许多人向我表达的最大担忧。如果美国不仅未能减少自己的排放,反而成功地说服其他国家也不需要减少排放,科学家们认为这可能会对地球产生非常危险的多米诺骨牌效应。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Scientists are worried. I mean the United States is the largest historic emitter of climate change. It's the second largest annual emitter of carbon pollution and greenhouse gases. If the US is not doing its part, a lot of countries could start to wonder why should they? And the most important is China. And that's the big fear that a lot have have relayed to me. If the United States is is successful in not just failing to reduce its own emissions, but convincing other countries that they don't need to either, scientists feel that could have a really dangerous domino effect for the planet.

Michael Bubaro: 那些多米诺骨牌最终会倒向何方?我的意思是,它们会导致更严重的温度上升,更多的干旱和更热的干旱,更频繁和更严重的野火,冰川融化导致海平面上升,威胁沿海社区。这些变化还会直接损害人类健康。科学家告诉我们,它们会损害粮食安全、水供应。它们会导致病媒传播疾病的增加,如莱姆病、登革热。这是一个全面的影响图景,科学家们警告说,如果排放继续增加,情况会变得更糟。我觉得你在这里讲述的故事非常引人注目的是,这个国家与温室气体的关系,即它们导致气候变化以及政府需要解决这个问题,在短短十年半的时间里,这种观念发生了多么迅速的变化。如果你回到2000年代中期,当危害认定被撰写时,似乎大部分商业界甚至政治界都开始达成共识,认为存在一个问题,并且可以对此采取行动。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: And where do those dominoes eventually fall? I mean, they they fall in more severe rising temperatures and more droughts and hotter droughts, more frequent and severe wildfires, rising sea levels from melting glaciers that are threatening coastal communities. These kinds of changes also directly damage human health. Scientists tell us they damage food security, water supplies. They lead to an increase in vectorbor diseases, Lyme disease, deni. There's a whole sweeping landscape of impacts that scientists are warning will get worse if emissions continue to go up. I feel like what's quite remarkable about the story that you've told here is how quickly this country's relationship to greenhouse gases, the idea that they create climate change and that this is something to be addressed by the government, how quickly, really just in a decade and a half that's changed. If you go back to the mid early 2000s when the endangerment finding was written, it seemed like much of the business and even political world was starting to become aligned in this sense that there was a problem and that something could be done about it.

Lisa Freriedman: 大家好,我是Nancy Pelosi,终身民主党人,众议院议长。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Hi, I'm Nancy Pelosi, lifelong Democrat and speaker of the House.

Lisa Freriedman: 我是N. Gingrich,终身共和党人,我曾是议长。我相信你还记得那个著名的广告。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: And I'm N. Gingrich, lifelong Republican and I used to be speaker. I'm sure you remember the famous

Michael Bubaro: 广告中Nancy PelosiNuke Gingrich坐在国会大厦前的沙发上。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: ad where Nancy Pelosi and Nuke Gingrich are sitting on a couch together in front of the capital.

Lisa Freriedman: 我们并不总是意见一致,是吗,N?

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: We don't always see eye to eye, do we, N?

Lisa Freriedman: 不,但我们确实同意,我们的国家必须采取行动应对气候变化。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: No, but we do agree our country must take action to address climate change.

Michael Bubaro: 当然,关于如何应对气候变化,从来就没有完全一致的意见。企业对改变其行为所涉及的一些成本并不满意,但很多人都认同需要做些什么。然而,正如你在这里解释的,一群非常坚持己见、意识形态一致的气候变化怀疑论者,在共和党和民主党总统任期内一直坚持不懈,并成功地使他们的观点(这不一定是全国的观点)成为政府的官方政策。这真是令人叹为观止。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: There wasn't always going to be ever, of course, agreement about what to do about it. businesses weren't thrilled about some of the costs entailed in changing their conduct, but a lot of people got on board with the idea that something needed to be done. And yet, as you've explained here, a very persistent group of ideologically aligned climate change skeptics kept at it through Republican and Democratic presidencies and have succeeded in making their view, which isn't necessarily the nation's view, become the government's official policy. And that's something to behold.

Lisa Freriedman: 确实如此。在报道这个故事的过程中,我们清楚地发现,这群保守派律师对气候变化的看法,甚至在他们自己的党内也不是主流。但他们坚持不懈,做了大量的规划,这种坚持不懈最终得到了回报,以特朗普总统的形式。我们都知道他对气候变化的看法。他称之为骗局。他称之为诈骗。当特朗普总统当选时,这两股力量联合起来,他们准备好完成这项反气候议程。今天晚些时候,当危害认定被废除时,用一位气候怀疑论者的话来说,这将是他们事业的“全面胜利”。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: It really is. And one of the things that became clear as we were reporting this story out is that this group of conservative lawyers, their views on climate change were not in the mainstream even of their own party. But they were persistent and they did an enormous amount of planning and that persistence paid off in the form of President Trump who you know we all know his views on climate change. Calls it a hoax. Calls it a scam. And when President Trump was elected, these two forces joined and they were ready to get this anti-climate agenda done. And later today, when the endangerment finding is repealed, it will be, in the words of one climate contrarian, total victory for their cause.

Michael Bubaro: 好的,Lisa,非常感谢你。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Well, Lisa, thank you very much.

Lisa Freriedman: 非常感谢。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Thanks so much.

Michael Bubaro: 我们马上回来。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: We'll be right back.

其他新闻

Michael Bubaro: 这是你今天还需要知道的其他事情。周三,围绕联邦政府突然关闭德克萨斯州埃尔帕索附近空域(原计划关闭10天)的谜团似乎得到了解决。《泰晤士报》报道称,关闭是在美国海关和边境保护局官员决定试用一种新型反无人机激光技术,以射击他们认为是来自墨西哥贩毒集团的无人机之后宣布的。但边境保护局官员未能给联邦航空管理局官员足够的时间来评估这项新技术对商业飞机的风险。这促使联邦航空管理局关闭了空域,然后又迅速撤销了自己的决定。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Here's what else you need to know today. On Wednesday, the mystery surrounding the federal government's decision to abruptly shut down the airspace around El Paso, Texas, originally for 10 days, appeared to be solved. The Times reports that the closure was announced after officials from US Customs and Border Protection decided to try out a new anti- drone laser technology in order to shoot at what they believed was a drone from Mexican drug cartels. But the Border Protection officials failed to give officials from the Federal Aviation Administration enough time to assess the risks of the new technology on commercial planes. that prompted the FAA to shut down the airspace before quickly reversing their own decision.

Michael Bubaro: 你们起诉了爱泼斯坦的多少同谋?你们甚至在调查多少肇事者?

Original English

Michael Bubaro: And how many of Epstein's co-conspirators have you indicted? How many perpetrators are you even investigating?

Michael Bubaro: 首先,你展示了它。我找到了它。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: First, you showed it. You I I find it.

Michael Bubaro: 你有多少?

Original English

Michael Bubaro: How many have you?

Michael Bubaro: 对不起。我将回答这个问题。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Excuse me. I'm going to answer the question.

Michael Bubaro: 我回答我的问题。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: I answer my question.

Michael Bubaro: 不,我将以我想要的方式回答这个问题。在周三一场激烈的听证会上,民主党国会议员严厉批评司法部长Pam Bondi处理与Jeffrey Epstein相关文件的方式,以及她一再努力起诉总统的敌人。你把人民的司法部变成了特朗普复仇的工具。特朗普像点披萨一样下令起诉,你每次都照办。他让你去追捕James ComeyLeticia JamesLisa

Original English

Michael Bubaro: No, I'm going to answer the question the way I want to answer the question. During a combative hearing on Wednesday, Democratic members of Congress sharply criticized Attorney General Pam Bondi for her department's handling of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein and her repeated efforts to prosecute enemies of the president. You've turned the People's Department of Justice into Trump's instrument of revenge. Trump orders up prosecutions like pizza and you deliver every time. He tells you to go after James Comey, Leticia James, Lisa

Lisa Freriedman: Bondi强硬地为自己的行为辩护,频繁打断议员,有时甚至侮辱他们,就像她对马里兰州众议员Jamie Rascin所做的那样,当时Rascin指示Bondi停止在回答民主党人的问题时进行拖延。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: Bondi forcefully defended her actions, frequently interrupted lawmakers, and at times insulted them as she did to Representative Jamie Rascin of Maryland when he instructed Bondi to stop filibustering in response to questions from Democrats.

Michael Bubaro: 司法部长,在你开始之前我就告诉过你。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: And I told you about that, Attorney General, before you started.

Lisa Freriedman: 你不能告诉我。

Original English

Lisa Freriedman: You don't tell me.

Michael Bubaro: 哦,我确实告诉过你,因为我们看到了你在参议院的表现。律师。甚至不是律师。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Oh, I did tell you because we saw what you did in the Senate. lawyer. Not even a lawyer.

Michael Bubaro: 将会按顺序进行。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Will be in order.

Michael Bubaro: 今天的节目由Eric KrupkkeyMichael Simon JohnsonAnna Foley制作。由Maria BurnDevin Taylor编辑。包含Alicia EtubMarian LozanoDan Powell的音乐,由Chris Wood进行工程制作。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: Today's episode was produced by Eric Krupkkey, Michael Simon Johnson, and Anna Foley. It was edited by Maria Burn, and Devin Taylor. Contains music by Alicia Etub, Marian Lozano, and Dan Powell, and was engineered by Chris Wood.

Michael Bubaro: 《每日》到此结束。我是Michael Borrow。明天见。

Original English

Michael Bubaro: That's it for the daily. I'm Michael Borrow. See you tomorrow.

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关键字: climate-policy environmental-regulation legal-strategy policy-advocacy political-influence