播客开场与嘉宾介绍

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenbec on Bloomberg Radio.

彭博音频工作室，播客、广播、新闻。这里是《彭博商业周刊日报》，来自那本帮助全球领导者通过洞察塑造当今复杂经济的人物、公司和趋势而保持领先的杂志，此外还有实时发生的全球商业、金融和科技新闻。《彭博商业周刊日报》播客，由卡罗尔·马瑟（Carol Masser）和蒂姆·斯坦贝克（Tim Stenbec）在彭博广播电台主持。

Carol: All right, we want to stay on this story. Joining us right now is Mona Yakubian, and she is director and senior adviser, Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS: 位于华盛顿特区的两党智库). She joins us from Washington DC. Mona, should President Trump be taking a victory lap here?

卡罗尔: 好的，我们想继续关注这个故事。现在加入我们的是莫娜·亚库比安（Mona Yakubian），她是战略与国际研究中心（CSIS: 位于华盛顿特区的两党智库）中东项目主任兼高级顾问。她从华盛顿特区连线我们。莫娜，特朗普总统现在是否应该庆祝胜利？

加沙和平：里程碑与前路挑战

Mona: I think the president does deserve to take a victory lap considering what has been accomplished today: the release of the last 20 remaining hostages who were alive in Gaza; the cessation of hostilities for now; the flowing in of much needed assistance into Gaza. These are important milestones. However, I think the president is perhaps premature in saying the war is over. The difficult steps ahead are the ones that we will have to watch closely to see if in fact his aspirations become reality.

莫娜: 我认为总统确实值得庆祝胜利，考虑到今天所取得的成就：最后20名在加沙幸存的人质得以释放；目前敌对行动的停止；以及急需的援助物资流入加沙。这些都是重要的里程碑。然而，我认为总统现在就说战争结束可能为时过早。未来的艰难步骤是我们将不得不密切关注的，以确定他的愿望是否能成为现实。

Tim: And Mona, how does that play out? If you were going to say that this is presumably some form of a stop gap and not necessarily a conclusion and marking a next chapter, what plays out? How does this play out? And what's your view on that?

蒂姆: 莫娜，那将如何发展？如果你说这可能是一种权宜之计，而不一定是结束并开启新篇章，那会如何发展？这会怎样演变？你对此有何看法？

Mona: Well, what will distinguish what happened today from ceasefires in the past is if the various points that are laid down in President Trump's 20-point plan are in fact implemented. Critical among them is the disarming of Hamas (哈马斯: 巴勒斯坦逊尼派伊斯兰主义政治和军事组织). Hard to know how exactly that's going to happen. The agreement itself is very short on details. There's also the envisioning of an international stabilization force (国际维和部队: 为维护地区稳定而部署的多国军事或警察力量) that would surge into Gaza and be responsible for security. Not at all clear how that's going to happen. And of course, questions around governance and the constituting of a committee of Palestinian technocrats (巴勒斯坦技术官僚: 拥有专业知识而非政治背景的巴勒斯坦专家) to be overseen by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. There are so many details that have yet to be ironed out, let alone implemented. And I think these are the key potential sticking points in the coming days and weeks and likely months.

莫娜: 那么，今天发生的一切与过去的停火协议不同之处在于，特朗普总统20点计划中提出的各项要点是否能真正得到落实。其中最关键的是解除哈马斯（Hamas: 巴勒斯坦逊尼派伊斯兰主义政治和军事组织）的武装。很难确切知道这将如何实现。协议本身在细节上非常欠缺。此外，还设想了一支将迅速进入加沙并负责安全的国际维和部队（international stabilization force: 为维护地区稳定而部署的多国军事或警察力量）。这方面也完全不清楚将如何实现。当然，还有关于治理的问题，以及由前英国首相托尼·布莱尔（Tony Blair）监督的巴勒斯坦技术官僚（Palestinian technocrats: 拥有专业知识而非政治背景的巴勒斯坦专家）委员会的组建。有太多细节尚未敲定，更不用说实施了。我认为这些是未来几天、几周乃至几个月内主要的潜在症结。

Carol: Mona, I think it's fair to say a conflict like this that has gone on not just in the last two years of a war, but it's been going on for a long time between Israel and Gaza and Hamas. What is Hamas in a world where there is no conflict between Hamas and Israel? I mean, they have been designated terrorist groups. So, I'm just curious, what is Hamas potentially going forward if there's real peace in this region?

卡罗尔: 莫娜，我认为公平地说，这场冲突不仅在过去两年的战争中持续，而且在以色列、加沙和哈马斯之间已经持续了很长时间。在一个哈马斯和以色列之间没有冲突的世界里，哈马斯会是什么？我的意思是，他们已被认定为恐怖组织。所以，我很好奇，如果该地区实现真正的和平，哈马斯未来会是怎样的？

Mona: Well, I think you point to a really important issue here. Hamas's raison d'être is resistance: resistance against Israel and against Israeli occupation. Now, presumably, if all of the various elements that would bring actual peace between Israelis and Palestinians come into fruition, then that would indeed, I think, dramatically undermine the rationale for Hamas to continue to exist. But I do think it's really important, Carol, to note this agreement talks about and calls for the disarming of Hamas; it does not call for the destruction of Hamas as Prime Minister Netanyahu (内塔尼亚胡总理: 本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，以色列现任总理) has called for and made a centerpiece of his policies on Gaza.

莫娜: 嗯，我认为你指出了一个非常重要的问题。哈马斯存在的理由（raison d'être）是抵抗：抵抗以色列和以色列的占领。现在，如果所有能为以色列人和巴勒斯坦人带来真正和平的各种要素都能实现，那么我认为这将极大地削弱哈马斯继续存在的理由。但我确实认为，卡罗尔，很重要的一点是，这份协议谈论并呼吁解除哈马斯的武装；它并没有像内塔尼亚胡总理（Prime Minister Netanyahu: 本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，以色列现任总理）所呼吁并将其作为其加沙政策核心那样，要求摧毁哈马斯。

Carol: So, okay. So, that's an important distinction. Correct.

卡罗尔: 好的，这是一个重要的区别。没错。

Mona: Very much so. We're already seeing reporting that as Israeli troops withdraw from limited areas of Gaza, there is reporting that Hamas is filling in and is taking over. So again, this just gives you a sense of how daunting this challenge is going to be going forward.

莫娜: 确实如此。我们已经看到有报道称，随着以色列军队从加沙有限区域撤出，哈马斯正在填补空白并接管。所以这再次让你感受到，这个挑战在未来将是多么艰巨。

Tim: And Mona, you have more than 30 years of experience in the Middle East and North Africa. With that in mind, what do the next weeks and months, years look like?

蒂姆: 莫娜，你在中东和北非地区拥有超过30年的经验。考虑到这一点，未来几周、几个月乃至几年会是怎样的景象？

Mona: Well, I think immediately what's going to need to happen is more meat on the bones of exactly how it is that this agreement that all of these various leaders just signed off on in Charlie, how will those points actually be implemented? So I think the first order of the day is going to be figuring out how to establish security on the ground as Israeli troops withdraw, and it's not at all clear how that's going to happen. What are the mechanisms by which Hamas is going to be disarmed and to whom? Whom will they give their arms to? And then, of course, the other key element of any post-conflict stabilization is governance. You've got to have governance. You've got to have authorities on the ground. Who will they be? How will that structure be set up? Those are really critical questions and we're a long ways from understanding what the details are that will govern those various arrangements.

莫娜: 嗯，我认为眼前亟需解决的是，所有这些领导人在查理签署的这份协议，其具体内容将如何落实？这些要点将如何实际执行？因此，我认为当务之急是弄清楚如何在以色列军队撤出后建立当地的安全，而这方面目前完全不清楚将如何实现。解除哈马斯武装的机制是什么，他们将向谁交出武器？然后，当然，任何冲突后稳定化的另一个关键要素是治理。你必须有治理。你必须有地方当局。他们将是谁？这个结构将如何建立？这些都是非常关键的问题，而我们离理解将管理这些各种安排的细节还有很长的路要走。

Carol: Does a disarmed Hamas want a Gaza, a Palestinian state that actually thrives?

卡罗尔: 一个解除武装的哈马斯，他们会希望加沙，一个巴勒斯坦国真正繁荣发展吗？

Mona: Presumably they have called and would be in agreement with that. But as always, the devil is in the details. For example, they are saying that Israel must withdraw 100% from Gaza. That is not envisioned by the plan. And ultimately, what does a Palestinian state look like? Is there a way to actually build a Palestinian state from the current set of circumstances that we see on the ground? That is also going to be extraordinarily difficult. As long as these questions remain, there will be space for resistance. There will be space for groups like Hamas or its successor to cause trouble.

莫娜: 理论上他们已经呼吁并会同意这一点。但正如常言道，魔鬼藏在细节中。例如，他们说以色列必须100%撤出加沙。这在计划中并未设想。最终，一个巴勒斯坦国会是什么样子？在目前我们看到的地面情况中，是否有办法真正建立一个巴勒斯坦国？那也将异常困难。只要这些问题仍然存在，抵抗的空间就会存在。哈马斯或其继任者等组织制造麻烦的空间就会存在。

Tim: Yeah, it's fascinating, right? And you talk about the building of a Palestinian state and then there's just the actual build of a land that has just been devastated. So much more to come and I know we'll lean on you in the future because I'm sure there'll be more to come. I'm Mona Yakubian and she's director and senior adviser Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

蒂姆: 是的，这很有意思，对吧？你谈到建设一个巴勒斯坦国，然后还有实际重建一片刚刚被摧毁的土地。未来还有很多事情要做，我知道我们将来会依靠你，因为肯定还会有更多进展。我是莫娜·亚库比安，她是战略与国际研究中心中东项目主任兼高级顾问。请继续收听，本期《彭博商业周刊日报》稍后将带来更多内容。

OpenAI的AI芯片战略与市场影响

Tim: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2:00 to 5:00 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube.

蒂姆: 您正在收听《彭博商业周刊日报》播客。请在工作日下午2点至5点（东部时间）收听我们的直播。您可以通过彭博商业应用程序在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听，或在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

Carol: Well, big Aon is a big market story as well today, once again driving the trade, pushing semis as a group, semiconductors that is, higher today led by Broadcom (博通: 全球领先的半导体和基础设施软件解决方案提供商) whose stock jumped after OpenAI (开放人工智能: 领先的人工智能研究和部署公司) agreed to buy the company's custom chips and networking equipment in a multi-year deal, part of an ambitious plan by the startup to add AI infrastructure. So we wanted to just dig a little bit deeper into it. Amy talked about it. We certainly are seeing it playing out in the market. Got a great voice though to walk us through it. One of my favorite people. Billy must have said Mandep's name about five times on the call this morning. Immediately was like, we need to get him in studio. So perfect timing. And that's why we're joined now by Bloomberg Intelligence global head of technology research Mandep Singh here in the studio. Mandep, walk us through this deal because it feels like every other day OpenAI has a new agreement with some chip manufacturer and the terms are slightly different, whether it's an ownership stake or front buying chips. What's up with this Broadcom pact?

卡罗尔: 好的，大型保险经纪公司怡安（Aon）今天也是一个重要的市场故事，再次推动交易，带动半导体板块走高，其中博通（Broadcom: 全球领先的半导体和基础设施软件解决方案提供商）股价大涨，此前开放人工智能（OpenAI: 领先的人工智能研究和部署公司）同意在一项多年期协议中购买博通的定制芯片和网络设备，这是这家初创公司增加人工智能基础设施的雄心勃勃计划的一部分。所以我们想深入探讨一下。艾米（Amy）谈到了它。我们当然也看到它在市场上发挥作用。我们请到了一位非常棒的专家来为我们解读。他是我最喜欢的人之一。比利（Billy）今天早上在电话会议上提了曼迪普（Mandep）的名字大概五次。他立刻就说，我们需要请他来演播室。所以时机完美。这就是为什么我们现在请到了彭博情报全球技术研究主管曼迪普·辛格（Mandep Singh）来到演播室。曼迪普，请为我们解读这笔交易，因为感觉OpenAI每隔一天就和某个芯片制造商达成新协议，条款略有不同，无论是股权还是预购芯片。这次博通的协议有什么特别之处？

Mandep: They are really going after data center capacity right now and the way they are doing it is by diversifying their supplier base. So it's not just relying on Nvidia (英伟达: 全球领先的图形处理器和AI芯片制造商), which everyone does right now for compute, but really leveraging Broadcom, which is a custom silicon (定制芯片: 专为特定应用或工作负载设计和优化的集成电路) maker. So think about Nvidia giving you a generic chip where you can run your AI workloads (人工智能工作负载: 指运行AI模型和算法所需的计算任务), whether it's training (训练: AI模型学习数据模式的过程) or inferencing (推理: AI模型应用所学知识进行预测或决策的过程). Custom silicon is used just for the specific workflow that OpenAI has to run for its proprietary model. So no one else has any benefit of using a custom silicon because OpenAI is not looking to sell its own chips to compete with Nvidia. It is looking to use its chips for its own chat chip app or any other custom app that it has developed in-house. And Google is a prime example of what a custom silicon looks like because they have their own TPUs (Tensor Processing Unit: 张量处理单元，谷歌开发的专用于机器学习的定制芯片), which when you compare it to Nvidia GPUs (Graphics Processing Unit: 图形处理单元，一种专门用于快速图像渲染的处理器，也广泛用于AI计算), is more customized in nature, but it does a terrific job of running YouTube or any other AI workloads that Google wants to run on its chip. So that's what OpenAI is doing and it has a tremendous cost advantage because it costs a lot lower than the Nvidia price tag of $30,000 on an average for a GPU.

曼迪普: 他们现在确实在追求数据中心容量，他们通过多元化供应商基础来实现这一点。因此，他们不仅仅依赖目前所有人都用于计算的英伟达（Nvidia: 全球领先的图形处理器和AI芯片制造商），而是真正利用博通这家定制芯片（custom silicon: 专为特定应用或工作负载设计和优化的集成电路）制造商。想象一下，英伟达提供的是通用芯片，你可以运行你的人工智能工作负载（AI workloads: 指运行AI模型和算法所需的计算任务），无论是训练（training: AI模型学习数据模式的过程）还是推理（inferencing: AI模型应用所学知识进行预测或决策的过程）。而定制芯片仅用于OpenAI为其专有模型运行的特定工作流程。因此，其他任何人使用定制芯片都不会有任何好处，因为OpenAI并不打算出售自己的芯片与英伟达竞争。它只是想将自己的芯片用于其内部开发的聊天芯片应用或任何其他定制应用。谷歌就是一个很好的例子，展示了定制芯片的样子，因为他们有自己的TPU（Tensor Processing Unit: 张量处理单元，谷歌开发的专用于机器学习的定制芯片），与英伟达的GPU（Graphics Processing Unit: 图形处理单元，一种专门用于快速图像渲染的处理器，也广泛用于AI计算）相比，TPU在本质上更具定制性，但在运行YouTube或谷歌希望在其芯片上运行的任何其他AI工作负载方面表现出色。所以这就是OpenAI正在做的事情，它具有巨大的成本优势，因为它的成本远低于英伟达GPU平均3万美元的价格标签。

Tim: TPU, Tensor Processing Unit. I just want to make sure I understand. What's interesting though is I do feel like there's this move trend to get chips that maybe don't cost as much, maybe don't use as much power, but do exactly what we need. Is that fair?

蒂姆: TPU，张量处理单元。我只是想确认我理解得对不对。有趣的是，我确实觉得现在有一种趋势，就是获得成本可能不高、功耗可能不大，但能完全满足我们需求的芯片。这样说公平吗？

Mandep: Yeah, look, one gigawatt requires up to 500 to 600,000 accelerator chips (加速芯片: 专门设计用于加速特定计算任务，如AI模型训练的硬件). So we're talking 0.5 to 0.6 million chips for one gigawatt data center. Imagine if you can save up to $5,000, how it multiplies in terms of cost savings. The real constraint right now is power. It's not as if you get a cheaper chip and you are all good. You still need the performance per watt, which is why Nvidia is so good because it gives you five to 10x more performance per watt than the nearest competitor.

曼迪普: 是的，你看，一千兆瓦（gigawatt）需要多达50万到60万颗加速芯片（accelerator chips: 专门设计用于加速特定计算任务，如AI模型训练的硬件）。所以我们谈论的是一个千兆瓦数据中心需要50万到60万颗芯片。想象一下，如果你每颗芯片能节省5000美元，那在成本节约方面会是多么巨大的倍增效应。目前真正的限制是电力。并不是说你拿到一个便宜的芯片就万事大吉了。你仍然需要每瓦特的性能，这就是为什么英伟达如此出色，因为它能提供比最接近的竞争对手高出5到10倍的每瓦特性能。

Carol: Right.

卡罗尔: 对。

Tim: Exactly.

蒂姆: 没错。

Carol: I want to show there's a graphic and one of our producers made it, Elizabeth Cedron, and I think it, we've all been looking at this. It's about OpenAI and all of the companies that they're doing deals with. And it's not even been a month, but they have done deals with Nvidia, Oracle, Coreweave, AMD, now Broadcom. And again, it's just late September to mid-October. So, is that what this is? Is just giving them a smarter supply chain and having access to what they need? Is it as simple as that?

卡罗尔: 我想展示一张图表，是我们的制片人伊丽莎白·塞德隆（Elizabeth Cedron）制作的，我想我们都在看它。它关于OpenAI以及他们正在与之进行交易的所有公司。这还不到一个月，但他们已经与英伟达、甲骨文（Oracle）、Coreweave、AMD，现在还有博通达成了交易。而且，这只是从九月底到十月中旬。那么，这就是它的全部吗？只是为了给他们一个更智能的供应链，并让他们能够获得所需的东西？就这么简单吗？

Mandep: Well, it's not as simple because they're going across the stacks. Think of how AI applications are deployed. You need the chip, you need the infrastructure, you need the cloud because that's where you're doing your inferencing. So they've cut deals with different parts of the stack here, not just the chip makers, not just the power guys, also the cloud guys. So from that perspective, Coreweave, right? Coreweave. Exactly. And look, to my mind, they are going aggressive in terms of adding more capacity than they probably need because they think if they get market share, they get the companies or users to use their product, then they will be able to monetize and probably drive some companies out of competing with them because of the scale involved here.

曼迪普: 嗯，没那么简单，因为他们正在跨越整个技术栈。想想人工智能应用是如何部署的。你需要芯片，你需要基础设施，你需要云，因为那正是你进行推理的地方。所以他们已经与这个技术栈的不同部分达成了协议，不只是芯片制造商，不只是电力公司，还有云服务商。从这个角度来看，Coreweave，对吧？Coreweave。没错。而且，在我看来，他们在增加容量方面表现得非常激进，可能超出了他们的实际需求，因为他们认为如果能获得市场份额，让公司或用户使用他们的产品，那么他们就能实现盈利，并可能由于所涉及的规模而将一些竞争对手公司淘汰出局。

Tim: Well, are XAI and Anthropic striking similar deals or is this the OpenAI show? I think right now XAI must be thinking, and they are doing a $20 billion deal with some private financing. But look, when OpenAI announces a 10 gigawatt deal, we're talking $500 billion, not $20 billion anymore. So the numbers are getting bigger and bigger.

蒂姆: 那么，XAI和Anthropic也在达成类似的交易吗，还是说这是OpenAI的独角戏？我认为XAI现在肯定在思考，他们正在通过一些私人融资进行一笔200亿美元的交易。但你看，当OpenAI宣布一笔10千兆瓦的交易时，我们谈论的是5000亿美元，而不是200亿美元了。所以数字正在变得越来越大。

Carol: Well, is OpenAI in this moment in time on October 13th the most important company in the world?

卡罗尔: 那么，在10月13日的这一刻，OpenAI是世界上最重要的公司吗？

Mandep: Well, when I look at Mag 7 (Magnificent Seven: 华尔街七巨头，指市值最高的七家科技公司), your Broadcom is not in MAG7. It's a $1.6 trillion company. OpenAI probably, it's, and they're up 10% because of this. I mean, also they, the whole space sold off on Friday, so I don't want to downplay that too much, but like they're not even public. They're not even profitable as much as we know, right?

曼迪普: 嗯，当我看到华尔街七巨头（Mag 7: Magnificent Seven: 华尔街七巨头，指市值最高的七家科技公司）时，博通并不在其中。它是一家1.6万亿美元的公司。OpenAI可能，他们的股价因此上涨了10%。我的意思是，整个板块周五也出现了抛售，所以我不想过分轻视这一点，但他们甚至还没有上市。据我们所知，他们甚至还没有盈利，对吗？

Tim: No, look, right now their gross margins would be negative if you factor in the training costs. Inferencing-wise, yes, they are making some money, but clearly if you include everything and just to compare it with Google, Google has an annual cost of revenue of around $100 billion that powers all of their apps, Google, YouTube, everything that they run. OpenAI's compute costs (计算成本: 运行计算机系统或执行计算任务所需的费用) are probably north of $20 billion right now. And if they're adding 26 gigawatt more capacity, we're talking compute cost to multiply at least 25-fold. So from that perspective, you have to ask yourself how much incremental revenue do you want to see from OpenAI to justify this potentially $1 trillion dollar in compute infrastructure spend. And that's where Google's infrastructure is so efficient because just less than 5 gigawatt of compute gets you to over $400 billion in revenue.

蒂姆: 不，你看，如果把训练成本考虑进去，他们目前的毛利率将是负的。就推理而言，是的，他们确实在赚钱，但显然，如果你把所有都算进去，并与谷歌（Google）进行比较，谷歌每年的收入成本约为1000亿美元，这支撑着他们的所有应用程序，谷歌、YouTube，他们运营的一切。OpenAI目前的计算成本（compute costs: 运行计算机系统或执行计算任务所需的费用）可能超过200亿美元。如果他们再增加26千兆瓦的容量，我们谈论的计算成本将至少增加25倍。所以从这个角度来看，你必须问自己，OpenAI需要产生多少增量收入才能证明这可能高达1万亿美元的计算基础设施支出是合理的。而这正是谷歌基础设施效率如此之高的原因，因为仅不到5千兆瓦的计算能力就能带来超过4000亿美元的收入。

Carol: That's pretty cool, to say the least, in a non-financial analysis terminology. Mandep, thank you, always a gem. Bloomberg Intelligence global head of technology research Mandep Singh. AI spend and the buildout is one read on the US economy and certainly the tech economy. Now to another great read Bailey on US economic activity, and we're talking about the industrial supplier Fastenal (法思特纳: 一家工业和建筑用品分销商), which reported earnings earlier this morning, and shares, I think they were the worst performing in the S&P 500 (标准普尔500指数: 衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数) at one point. Yeah, right now down about 6% and keep in mind this is a $50 billion company. So this is no small fish in the industrial space. One of the first reads we get every quarterly earning season missing Wall Street views. So interesting, what's driving that?

卡罗尔: 至少在非金融分析术语中，这相当酷。曼迪普，谢谢你，你总是一个宝藏。彭博情报全球技术研究主管曼迪普·辛格。人工智能支出和建设是解读美国经济，当然也是科技经济的一个视角。现在，贝利，我们再来看看美国经济活动的另一大看点，我们谈论的是工业供应商法思特纳（Fastenal: 一家工业和建筑用品分销商），它今天早上早些时候公布了财报，股价一度是标准普尔500指数（S&P 500: 衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数）中表现最差的。是的，目前下跌约6%，请记住这是一家500亿美元的公司。所以这在工业领域绝非小角色。这是我们每个季度财报季最早得到的数据之一，它普遍低于华尔街的预期。那么，是什么原因造成的呢？

Fastenal财报：定价压力与供应链多元化

Tim: Well, let's ask the CEO Daniel Flores. He is chief executive officer of Fastenal. He joins us from Winona, Minnesota. Dan, it is great to have you back with us. Talk to us about the quarter because it does seem like analysts were noting that the pricing during the quarter was weaker than expected and marks the second straight quarter of softer pricing and maybe that's why we're seeing the stock down. What do you want to say to investors?

蒂姆: 好的，我们来问问首席执行官丹尼尔·弗洛雷斯（Daniel Flores）。他是法思特纳的首席执行官。他从明尼苏达州维诺纳连线我们。丹，很高兴你再次加入我们。和我们谈谈这个季度吧，因为分析师们似乎注意到本季度的定价弱于预期，这标志着连续第二个季度的定价疲软，也许这就是我们看到股价下跌的原因。你对投资者有什么想说的？

Daniel: Well, part of the reason our stock's down is it's priced to perfection if you look at what it's done year to date and where the multiple has gone. But we had a really good quarter. We had a double-digit quarter. We hadn't seen that for a couple years. Double-digit growth, sorry. And pleased with the outcome. One of the challenges we had this year was there's a lot of fluidity around tariffs and what it means for pricing. And we will raise price to address costs in our customer supply chain. We really don't want to raise more than that because we believe it impairs our ability to grow as fast as we'd like. And coming into the quarter, we estimated X for impact of pricing came in a little bit less. We lowered our number for the fourth quarter, but the most important aspect is on a price cost basis, we are neutral, and that's what we aspire to be. We'd rather just grow.

丹尼尔: 嗯，我们股价下跌的部分原因是，如果看它今年迄今的表现以及市盈率的变化，它已经被定价到了完美。但我们度过了一个非常好的季度。我们实现了两位数的季度增长。我们好几年没看到这样的情况了。抱歉，是两位数增长。我们对结果感到满意。我们今年面临的挑战之一是关税及其对定价的影响存在很大的不确定性。我们将提高价格以应对客户供应链中的成本。我们真的不想提高更多，因为我们认为那会损害我们按预期速度增长的能力。进入本季度时，我们预计定价影响为X，但实际影响略低于预期。我们下调了第四季度的数字，但最重要的一点是，在价格成本基础上，我们是中性的，这也是我们所追求的目标。我们宁愿只专注于增长。

Tim: And Dan, to your point, Fastenal, even with the pullback today, returning 22% year-to-date, so outperforming the S&P 500 and comparable stocks in the industrial space. But just one more question on pricing. In terms of expectations, would you want to raise pricing? Do you get the sense that consumers and customers would push back just given how you've been shifting into bigger customers spending much more money?

蒂姆: 丹，正如你所说，法思特纳即使今天有所回调，今年迄今的回报率仍达到22%，跑赢了标准普尔500指数以及工业领域的同类股票。但关于定价，我还有一个问题。就预期而言，你们会想提高定价吗？鉴于你们一直在转向更大的客户，让他们花费更多资金，你是否觉得消费者和客户会因此抵制？

Daniel: Yeah. Customers always push back on pricing. Doesn't matter the size customer. We will, we are having conversations with our customer. We will be doing some price increases in Q4. I suspect we'll be doing some price increases as we move into 2026. But again, our first discussion with the customer, they understand it. They're willing to move on price. Our first discussion is always what are alternatives to this product that maybe doesn't mean we have to raise your prices 5%. Maybe it means it only has to be two. And we'd rather go to two because that's what a supply chain partner does.

丹尼尔: 是的。客户总是会对价格提出异议。无论客户规模大小。我们正在与客户进行沟通。我们将在第四季度进行一些价格上涨。我预计进入2026年我们也会进行一些价格上涨。但再说一次，我们与客户的首次讨论，他们都理解。他们愿意在价格上有所变通。我们的首次讨论总是关于这个产品的替代方案是什么，也许这意味着我们不必将你的价格提高5%。也许这意味着只需要提高2%。而我们宁愿选择2%，因为这就是供应链合作伙伴所做的。

Tim: Well, Dan, how do tariffs fit into this, just given that according to analysts across the street, when we look at certain industries, now is when we're going to see tariffs showing up in the third quarter in guidance as it relates to 2026. What are you seeing and how are you kind of attacking or addressing any pressures from tariffs?

蒂姆: 丹，那么关税是如何融入其中的呢？鉴于华尔街分析师的说法，当我们审视某些行业时，现在是关税在第三季度指导中显现的时候，这与2026年有关。你看到了什么，以及你如何应对或处理来自关税的任何压力？

Daniel: Yeah, so for us tariffs have been in the equation since the early part of the second quarter, a little bit of first quarter. I think the individual that handles pricing historically, he will provide us an update once a month. He had gotten to the point where he was not only providing us updates, he was up to video number 14 as of July that he was serving out to the field, giving them guidance into what we were seeing in our supply chain. And so we've been adding price as we've gone through the year, and these have been discussions with customers, and I hope that answers your question.

丹尼尔: 是的，所以对我们来说，关税从第二季度初，以及第一季度的一小部分时间开始，就一直是我们考虑的因素。我认为负责定价的那个人，他过去每月会给我们提供一次更新。他已经到了这样的地步，不仅提供更新，截至七月，他已经制作了第14个视频，分发给现场团队，指导他们了解我们在供应链中看到的情况。因此，我们今年一直在增加价格，这些都是与客户进行的讨论，我希望这能回答你的问题。

Carol: No, I think it does. But I think the big thing is are you mitigating the impact of tariffs? Are you shifting your supply chain? Is the expectation that you can have some kind of knock-on effect as it relates to pricing if we do continue to see threats from the president going after countries like China or others. We are going to talk to one of the members of Levi's management team and they called out that they had to dial up their expectations for the impact of tariffs from other countries. So, how is that impacting when you look at your supply chain and when you look at the potential for pricing impacts in 2026?

卡罗尔: 不，我想是的。但我认为关键在于你们是否正在减轻关税的影响？你们是否正在调整供应链？如果总统继续威胁针对中国或其他国家，是否预期会对定价产生某种连锁反应？我们将会和李维斯管理团队的一位成员谈谈，他们指出他们不得不提高对来自其他国家关税影响的预期。那么，当你审视你们的供应链以及2026年潜在的定价影响时，这会产生怎样的影响？

Daniel: We've been moving supply chain around the planet in earnest since the 2017-2018 timeframe. As our name would imply, we sell a lot of fasteners. And most of the fasteners in North America come from either mainland China or Taiwan. And the automotive industry took the production there back in the 50s and 60s. Actually took it to Japan and South Korea and it migrated from there. If I look at our resources, we now have a sourcing team in Shanghai, but we have a sourcing team in Bangkok. We have a sourcing team in Northern India. And we have worked to diversify our supplier base around the planet and a little bit more in North America, but really around the planet. So to have diversity in supply so you're not caught off guard by some price change or a tariff change. In addition to that, we've taken supply chains coming into North America, which traditionally came in through the west coast of the United States, and then we would redistribute from there. We have moved supply chains so they're bringing product directly into the West Coast of Canada or the West Coast of Mexico because those two countries represent about 14% of our revenue. Now, you bypass the tariff. However, it's more expensive to break shipments down over in Asia and bring them in, but it's a lot less than a tariff.

丹尼尔: 自2017-2018年以来，我们一直在全球范围内认真地调整供应链。正如我们的名字所示，我们销售大量的紧固件。北美的大部分紧固件来自中国大陆或台湾。汽车工业在20世纪50年代和60年代将生产转移到那里。实际上是先转移到日本和韩国，然后从那里迁移。如果我审视我们的资源，我们现在在上海有一个采购团队，但在曼谷也有一个采购团队。我们在印度北部也有一个采购团队。我们一直在努力使我们的全球供应商基础多元化，在北美也增加了一些，但主要是全球范围内的多元化。这样做是为了在供应方面实现多样性，这样你就不会因为价格变化或关税变化而措手不及。除此之外，我们还将进入北美的供应链，传统上是通过美国西海岸进入，然后我们从那里进行再分配。我们已经调整了供应链，现在他们直接将产品运到加拿大西海岸或墨西哥西海岸，因为这两个国家占据了我们大约14%的收入。这样，你就绕过了关税。然而，在亚洲拆分货物并运入的成本更高，但比关税要少得多。

Tim: One of the things I want to ask you, you talk about supply chains. Is the endgame, Dan – we're talking with Dan Flores, he's chief executive officer of Fastenal – is it about largely reducing your exposure to China, which has been a pretty big one?

蒂姆: 我想问你一件事，你谈到了供应链。丹，我们正在与法思特纳首席执行官丹·弗洛雷斯交谈。最终目标是否主要是减少你们对中国市场的敞口，这曾是一个相当大的市场？

Daniel: It's reducing our customers' exposure to any market, in this case China and/or Taiwan, but to any market that are on the receiving end of some of the political winds and create an unstable supply base for our customer. Here it happens to be China. Another month it might be a different country. Another year it might be a different country. It's diversifying your supply chain so your eggs are not all in one basket.

丹尼尔: 这是为了减少我们客户对任何市场的风险敞口，在这种情况下是中国和/或台湾，但也是对任何受到政治风向影响并为我们客户造成不稳定供应基础的市场。在这里，它恰好是中国。下个月可能是一个不同的国家。明年可能是一个不同的国家。这是为了使你的供应链多元化，这样你就不会把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。

Carol: Got to be ready. So that's for a customer. Yeah, whichever way the winds blow. Hey, one of the things I want to ask you just big broadly, the earnings update today, you talked about the industrial environment still sluggish. We've heard similar commentary on this persistent sluggishness elsewhere from manufacturers, as well as caution around project delays. At what point does this become something more worrying than just sluggishness?

卡罗尔: 必须做好准备。所以这是为了客户。是的，无论风向如何。嘿，我想问你一个大范围的问题，今天的财报更新中，你提到了工业环境仍然低迷。我们从其他制造商那里也听到了类似的关于这种持续低迷的评论，以及对项目延迟的担忧。在什么情况下，这会变得比仅仅是低迷更令人担忧呢？

Daniel: For us, it's been sluggish since November of 2022. Okay, when we really key on what the industrial Institute for Supply Management (ISM: 供应管理协会) puts out, the PMI index (Purchasing Managers' Index: 采购经理人指数，衡量制造业或服务业经济活动的指标), and that's been sub 50, which really plays into our customer base. Other than January and February of this year, that's been sub 50 since November of 2022. So we've been in a sluggish economy for a long time from our perspective. And other than living through the first part of it where you had customers that were downshifting, our growth is shining through a different way. I think we're executing at a higher level, but once you get through that downshifting, now you're just, even if your customers are at a subdued level, you can grow in that kind of environment and that's what's shining through in our numbers right now.

丹尼尔: 对我们来说，自2022年11月以来，经济一直低迷。好的，当我们真正关注供应管理协会（ISM: 供应管理协会）发布的工业采购经理人指数（PMI index: Purchasing Managers' Index: 衡量制造业或服务业经济活动的指标）时，它一直低于50，这确实影响了我们的客户群。除了今年1月和2月，自2022年11月以来，该指数一直低于50。所以从我们的角度来看，我们长期处于低迷的经济中。除了经历最初客户需求下降的阶段，我们的增长正以不同的方式显现。我认为我们正在更高水平上执行，但一旦度过那个下降阶段，即使你的客户处于低迷水平，你也能在那种环境中实现增长，这就是我们目前数据所反映的。

Tim: All right. One thing I want to ask you because as you would imagine, I don't know how much of this is pervasive in your world, but AI is the non-stop conversation that we are having, certainly when it comes to activity and market impact. To what extent is AI maybe sucking up the oxygen in the economy? Are you seeing any signs of that or in your world, they're going to still need what you guys supply no matter what's going on with the AI spend and enthusiasm?

蒂姆: 好的。我想问你一件事，因为你可以想象，我不知道这在你的世界中有多普遍，但人工智能是我们正在进行的永不停止的对话，尤其是在活动和市场影响方面。人工智能在多大程度上可能正在吸走经济中的“氧气”？你是否看到了任何迹象，或者在你们的领域，无论人工智能的支出和热情如何，他们仍然需要你们提供的产品？

Daniel: Well, first off, we have a meaningful improvement in our revenue as it relates to things like data centers because we sell into a wide range of customer needs and end-market needs, whether that is the actual construction. I visited many data centers being built where we have people on site there. After it's built, we're supplying into that facility with things like air handling and maintenance equipment. In the case of customers that sell into that sector, that's actually a strong business for us right now. And then as an organization, we're increasingly making use of AI in our own business and how we go to market and how we help our employees be more efficient in what they do.

丹尼尔: 嗯，首先，我们在与数据中心相关的收入方面有了显著改善，因为我们销售的产品覆盖了广泛的客户需求和终端市场需求，无论是实际的建设方面。我参观了许多正在建设的数据中心，我们都有员工在现场。建成后，我们向这些设施供应空气处理和维护设备等产品。对于向该领域销售产品的客户而言，这实际上是我们目前一项强劲的业务。然后，作为一个组织，我们越来越多地在自己的业务中利用人工智能，包括我们的市场推广方式以及如何帮助员工提高工作效率。

Carol: And Dan, about 45 seconds here with keeping in mind data center construction, where are those products sourced from? Are those also heavily sourced from China and exposed to tariffs or are they different supply chain altogether?

卡罗尔: 丹，在最后45秒内，考虑到数据中心的建设，这些产品是从哪里采购的？它们是否也大量来自中国并受到关税影响，还是完全不同的供应链？

Daniel: They're mostly a different supply source. But it depends on the component. If it's facility maintenance type products, they're coming from anywhere on the globe. And so they're subject to the same type of issues any product would have. But a lot of the components, I know a lot of the manufacturers that we sell into, I visited one about a year ago in Michigan where they were purposely avoiding China and they're selling directly into the data centers.

丹尼尔: 它们大多来自不同的供应源。但这取决于具体组件。如果是设施维护类的产品，它们可能来自全球任何地方。因此，它们会受到任何产品可能遇到的同类问题的影响。但很多组件，我认识的许多我们销售产品的制造商，我大约一年前在密歇根州拜访过一家，他们特意避开中国，直接向数据中心销售产品。

Tim: You've been at Fastenal for a long time. You've seen different cycles. How do you describe this one? And again, just got about 20 seconds. If you could be very quickly, very quick.

蒂姆: 你在法思特纳工作了很长时间，也经历过不同的周期。你如何描述这次的周期？再次提醒，只剩下大约20秒了。请你非常迅速地回答。

Daniel: Odd in the fact that, similar to what we saw in '18, but odd with the fact of it's just so damn fluid and there's so many things that occur from week to week, month to month that are outside the norm, but the fundamentals still work.

丹尼尔: 奇怪之处在于，它与我们在2018年看到的情况相似，但又很奇怪，因为它变化无常，每周、每月都有很多异常情况发生，但基本面仍然有效。

Tim: All right, serve your customer in a high level, you'll grow your business.

蒂姆: 好的，高水平地服务你的客户，你的业务就会增长。

Carol: Love talking with you, Dan Flores, CEO of Fastenal. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2:00 to 5:00 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube.

卡罗尔: 很高兴与你交谈，法思特纳首席执行官丹·弗洛雷斯。请继续收听。本期《彭博商业周刊日报》稍后将带来更多内容。您正在收听《彭博商业周刊日报》播客。请在工作日下午2点至5点（东部时间）收听我们的直播。您可以通过彭博商业应用程序在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听，或在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

Levi Strauss财报：消费者韧性与关税应对

Carol: All right, folks. Levi Strauss (李维斯: 全球知名的牛仔服装品牌) shares, they are trading slightly lower today after dropping as much as 14% on Friday. This is after the company's upgraded earnings guidance still fell short of higher investor expectations following the stock's more than 40% rally heading into that earnings sprint. Now, one key disappointment, at least according to analysts out on the street, is earnings growth failing to match the pace of sales expansion due to tariff and distribution costs. Meanwhile, got to say Bailey, you did have TD Cowen raising its price target on the stock to $26 from $22 a share and they've got their buy rating. Yeah, staying bullish and you look at the street, 13 analysts, 10 of them buys. So, is it a sell the news event priced to perfection?

卡罗尔: 各位听众，李维斯（Levi Strauss: 全球知名的牛仔服装品牌）的股票今天小幅走低，此前周五曾下跌多达14%。这是因为该公司上调的盈利指引仍未能达到投资者更高的预期，此前该股在财报发布前曾上涨超过40%。现在，至少根据华尔街分析师的说法，一个主要的失望之处在于，由于关税和分销成本，盈利增长未能与销售扩张的速度匹配。与此同时，贝利，不得不说，TD Cowen确实将该股的目标价从每股22美元上调至26美元，并维持了买入评级。是的，保持看涨，你看华尔街有13位分析师，其中10位给予买入评级。那么，这是否是“利好出尽”的事件，股价已经达到了完美估值？

Bailey: We see, it's a really good point. So, let's see what one of the company's members of the C-suite have to say. Harmit Singh is with us, chief financial and growth officer at Levi Strauss. He joins us from our San Francisco bureau. Harmit, it's so good to have you here with us. How are you and how is the consumer doing?

贝利: 我们明白了，这是一个非常好的观点。那么，我们来听听公司高管团队的一位成员怎么说。哈米特·辛格（Harmit Singh）和我们在一起，他是李维斯的首席财务兼增长官。他从我们的旧金山办事处连线。哈米特，很高兴你能和我们在一起。你最近怎么样，消费者表现如何？

Harmit: Well, thanks for having me Carol and Bailey. It's great to be here again. We had a real strong quarter, four consecutive quarters of high single-digit growth and record gross margins (毛利率: 销售收入减去销售成本后的百分比), as well as the fact that we were able to raise our full-year guidance as well as gross margin and EPS (Earnings Per Share: 每股收益，衡量公司盈利能力的指标) expectations. Overall as a company, we're a stronger and a higher performing company defined by accelerated growth, expanding margins and higher return on invested capital. To your question about the consumer, the consumer is largely being resilient. Our products are really well segmented. We have Blue Tab, which is our premium high pinnacle product and that's doing well. We've introduced that in the US. So far so good. We have a Red Tab product that is basically marketed to consumers who earn between $100,000 and over. And that's based on our results, really done well. And then we have a Signature product sold through Walmart that again had a banner quarter and that's for lower income consumers. So consumer strength is really strong. That's where we were able to raise the full year guidance and our product pipeline hasn't been stronger. Now if you go outside the US, our international business was up in the high single digit and so Asia had a strong quarter, consumer strong. Europe had a decent quarter, consumer in a better place and so is Latin America.

哈米特: 谢谢卡罗尔和贝利邀请我。很高兴再次来到这里。我们度过了一个非常强劲的季度，连续四个季度实现高个位数增长和创纪录的毛利率（gross margins: 销售收入减去销售成本后的百分比），而且我们还能够提高全年业绩指引以及毛利率和每股收益（EPS: Earnings Per Share: 每股收益，衡量公司盈利能力的指标）预期。总体而言，作为一家公司，我们变得更强大，业绩表现更好，这体现在加速增长、利润率扩大和投资资本回报率提高上。至于你关于消费者的问题，消费者大体上表现出韧性。我们的产品细分做得非常好。我们有Blue Tab系列，这是我们的高端旗舰产品，表现良好。我们已在美国推出，目前为止一切顺利。我们还有Red Tab系列产品，主要面向年收入10万美元及以上的消费者。根据我们的业绩，这个系列表现确实出色。此外，我们还有通过沃尔玛（Walmart）销售的Signature系列产品，这个季度也表现突出，面向的是低收入消费者。所以消费者的购买力非常强劲。这也是我们能够提高全年业绩指引的原因，我们的产品线从未如此强大。现在如果你看美国以外的市场，我们的国际业务实现了高个位数增长，亚洲季度表现强劲，消费者购买力强劲。欧洲季度表现不错，消费者状况有所改善，拉丁美洲也是如此。

Carol: Well, I'm just going to lay it out for you. I think I bought my first pair of Levi's in a long time just a couple of months ago and my daughter, who's 22, so much younger than me, has been buying Levi's for a while. So Bailey, they're back. I go into the store in downtown in the village and yeah, it's packed.

卡罗尔: 好的，我就直说了。我想我几个月前才买了很久以来的第一条李维斯牛仔裤，而我22岁的女儿，比我年轻得多，已经买李维斯好一阵子了。所以贝利，他们又回来了。我去市中心村子里的店里，是的，店里挤满了人。

Bailey: Well, you get a partnership with Beyonce, all the marketing you guys are spending in terms of targeting both young and older generations. But Harmit, I want to ask about tariffs. So, Levi expects tariffs from China about 30%, but increased expectations to 20% from the rest of the world. Where are you sourcing your jeans materials? Are you more exposed to that doubling in terms of are you getting materials from Vietnam in place of China?

贝利: 好的，你们与碧昂丝（Beyonce）合作，在营销方面投入巨资，旨在吸引年轻和年长两代人。但哈米特，我想问问关税问题。李维斯预计来自中国的关税约为30%，但将来自世界其他地区的关税预期提高到20%。你们的牛仔裤材料是从哪里采购的？你们是否更容易受到这种关税翻倍的影响，比如你们是否正在从越南而不是中国采购材料？

Harmit: Yeah. So overall, we're taking a holistic approach as we are able to offset the tariff impact. As you think about this year, we raised guidance in the top line and the bottom line and gross margin. So we've been able to withstand that. To your specific question, Bailey, we source about 1%, we import into the US from China, a little over a percent from India. Most of and Vietnam is in the mid to high single digit. So most of our imports are from the Southeast Asian countries. Think Bangladesh, think Pakistan and the rest of Asia. The way we think about our supply chain, it's fairly well diversified. We import from about 20 countries into the US. 60% of our business is outside the US. And so we're well positioned to mitigate and offset tariffs. And the way we're thinking about the holistic approach given that volume is driving a big piece of our revenue momentum and we have tenured vendor relationships. We're working with our vendors. We're looking at different cost efficiencies across our organization as well as being very thoughtful about pricing.

哈米特: 是的。所以总体而言，我们正在采取一种整体方法，以抵消关税的影响。回顾今年，我们上调了营收、利润和毛利率的指引。因此，我们能够承受住这些影响。针对你具体的问题，贝利，我们从中国进口到美国的商品约占1%，从印度进口的略高于1%。大部分来自东南亚国家，例如孟加拉国、巴基斯坦以及亚洲其他地区，越南的比例在中高个位数。因此，我们的大部分进口来自东南亚国家。我们对供应链的看法是，它相当多元化。我们从大约20个国家进口商品到美国。我们60%的业务都在美国以外。因此，我们有能力减轻和抵消关税。我们采取整体方法的考量是，销量是我们营收增长的重要驱动力，而且我们拥有长期合作的供应商关系。我们正与供应商合作，在整个组织内寻求不同的成本效率，并对定价非常审慎。

Carol: So let me just ask you though, you guys did, you mentioned you raised your full-year outlook. You did warn that tariffs are starting to bite profitability to measure by gross margins improve. So these are the good stuff, but again, that tariffs are starting to bite. Harmit, can you tell us what that means? What the bite of tariffs, how much, any color around that.

卡罗尔: 那么我问你，你们确实提高了全年展望。但你们也警告说，关税开始侵蚀盈利能力，以毛利率的改善来衡量。所以这些都是好消息，但关税又开始产生负面影响。哈米特，你能告诉我们这意味着什么吗？关税的侵蚀程度如何，有什么具体情况可以说明吗？

Harmit: Sure. So overall, we were able to raise topline and bottom line guidance despite absorbing tariffs and so we are able to mitigate it. To the question about tariffs, tariffs were introduced on liberation day. We normally buy our products six months in advance and so we're working through our efforts and we've got different levers to kind of position it. So you take quarter three, the quarter we just reported, gross margins are record. So we're able to offset tariffs because we got other things working for us. As we grow our women's business, our direct to consumer business and international, all of which are accretive to gross margins and allow us to mitigate and offset some of the tariff exposure. Quarter four, we did guide gross margins to be slightly down versus a year ago and had it not been for tariffs, we'd have grown gross margins but overall as we think about the year, we'll report again another year of record gross margins so we're working on levers for 2026. The good news is we'll end the year stronger and we believe we're well positioned to have another strong year in 2026.

哈米特: 当然。所以总体而言，尽管承受了关税影响，我们仍能提高营收和利润指引，因此我们能够减轻其影响。关于关税问题，关税是在解放日引入的。我们通常提前六个月采购产品，因此我们正在努力，并有不同的杠杆来应对。以我们刚刚报告的第三季度为例，毛利率创下了纪录。所以我们能够抵消关税的影响，因为我们还有其他有利因素。随着我们女性业务、直接面向消费者（direct-to-consumer: 品牌直接向最终消费者销售产品，不通过中间商）业务和国际业务的增长，所有这些都对毛利率有增益作用，并使我们能够减轻和抵消部分关税风险。第四季度，我们确实预计毛利率将略低于去年同期，如果不是关税，我们的毛利率本会增长，但总体而言，当我们展望全年时，我们将再次报告一个创纪录的毛利率年份，因此我们正在为2026年寻找应对策略。好消息是，我们将在今年以更强的姿态结束，并且我们相信我们已为2026年又一个强劲年份做好了充分准备。

Bailey: And Carol, we've talked with a good friend Peter Atwater for quite some time, K-shaped recovery (K型复苏: 经济复苏中不同群体或行业表现迥异，强者愈强，弱者愈弱的现象), where people who are well off in the bottom quintile. When you look at your goods, when you look at the ability to raise prices from the impact of tariffs, which products are you able to more easily raise prices where you aren't going to see consumers push away and how are you thinking about that strategy as it relates to say the jeans that you do sell through a Walmart where you don't have that gross margin going direct to consumer and you do have likely at least when we look the data, a consumer who's feeling the pinch of inflation broadly speaking.

贝利: 卡罗尔，我们和好朋友彼得·阿特沃特（Peter Atwater）谈论K型复苏（K-shaped recovery: 经济复苏中不同群体或行业表现迥异，强者愈强，弱者愈弱的现象）已经很久了，在这个复苏中，富裕人群和底层五分之一人群的情况截然不同。当你审视你们的产品，审视在关税影响下提高价格的能力时，哪些产品你们更容易提价而不会让消费者抵制？你们如何考虑这种策略，尤其是在你们通过沃尔玛销售的牛仔裤，那里的毛利率不如直接面向消费者销售，而且根据数据，消费者普遍感受到了通货膨胀的压力。

Harmit: Yeah. And so the first thing, Bailey, to your question is our products are well segmented depending on the income profile of different consumers. I talk Blue Tab, Red Tab and Signature. Signature is what's sold into the lower income consumer. We've been very thoughtful about pricing. We're leading with product innovation rather than price. And so we're doing what we can to maintain a price point. It was evident in quarter 3. Signature, for example, I think is up in the low double digits for the year. As we think about our other products, the good news for us is our product pipeline has never been stronger. We're leading with loose and baggy while at the same time selling a lot of slim and skinny, both for him and her. We've got wonderful waist up products to think trucker jackets, think linen shirts, etc., etc. And so, as a company, we're making this pivot to be more of a denim lifestyle retailer going forward. Our past was all about denim. Our future is going to be about denim lifestyle.

哈米特: 是的。贝利，回答你的第一个问题是，我们的产品根据不同消费者的收入情况进行了很好的细分。我提到了Blue Tab、Red Tab和Signature系列。Signature系列是面向低收入消费者的。我们在定价方面一直非常谨慎。我们以产品创新而非价格来引领市场。因此，我们正在尽力维持一个价格点。这在第三季度表现得很明显。例如，Signature系列今年实现了低两位数的增长。当我们考虑其他产品时，对我们来说的好消息是我们的产品线从未如此强大。我们正在主推宽松款和阔腿款，同时也在销售大量修身款和紧身款，无论是男装还是女装。我们有很多很棒的上半身产品，比如卡车司机夹克、亚麻衬衫等等。因此，作为一家公司，我们正在转型，未来将成为一个更注重牛仔生活方式的零售商。我们的过去是关于牛仔的，我们的未来将是关于牛仔生活方式的。

Carol: I just want to know, do you really have a pair of baggy barrel jeans? I can't get my head around them. I'm trying. I'm trying. I haven't done it. I haven't done it. Harmit, what I do want to ask you too is you guys have had a mission, a goal to get to $10 billion in sales by 2027. I think you may have adjusted a little bit. I think also a 15% EBIT margin (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes margin: 息税前利润率，衡量公司核心业务盈利能力的指标). Could you reach 15% in the next few years even if sales have not hit that $10 billion? Talk to us a little bit about that mission.

卡罗尔: 我只是想知道，你真的有一条宽松桶形牛仔裤吗？我无法理解那种款式。我正在尝试。我正在尝试。我还没穿过。我还没穿过。哈米特，我还想问你，你们曾有一个目标，即到2027年实现100亿美元的销售额。我想你们可能有所调整。我认为还有15%的息税前利润率（EBIT margin: Earnings Before Interest and Taxes margin: 息税前利润率，衡量公司核心业务盈利能力的指标）。即使销售额没有达到100亿美元，你们能在未来几年内达到15%的利润率吗？请给我们谈谈这个目标。

Harmit: Yeah. We gave out the expectation of $10 billion and 15% on our investor day in the middle of June 2022. Since then, there's been a lot of change and a lot of uncertainty. As a company, we've kind of navigated our way through uncertainty. We haven't given a new date on the $10 billion and the 15%. Our thinking is we'll probably do that sometime next year. But to your question, the company that we are building and the company that is got the foundation given where we ending this year, so you take 2025, we'll end at about 6% organic growth. Last year it was 3%, the year before that it was flat. If you think in EBIT margins, this year we'll end about mid-11s, last year it was in the mid-10s, the previous year it was about nine. So we've seen a steady progress and our view is we probably get to the 15% faster than we get to the $10 billion. But really, a company that is steadily delivering mid-single-digit growth in a category that probably grows a little south of that. So our view is that we are market leaders now in the US, number one in men's, number one in women's and really resonating with the youth. And so the question is if you're able to stay at and implement our strategies. Our view is we can continue to be market leader and probably pick up a little bit of share, especially because the denim category is accelerating. We've seen the acceleration in the US. We've seen the acceleration outside and that's largely driven by the world becoming more casual.

哈米特: 是的。我们在2022年6月中旬的投资者日上公布了100亿美元销售额和15%利润率的预期。自那以后，发生了许多变化和不确定性。作为一家公司，我们已经设法应对了这些不确定性。我们尚未公布100亿美元和15%目标的新日期。我们认为可能在明年某个时候会公布。但就你的问题而言，我们正在建设的公司，以及我们今年结束时的基础，如果你看2025年，我们将实现约6%的有机增长。去年是3%，前年是持平。如果你看息税前利润率，今年我们将达到11%左右，去年是10%左右，前年是9%左右。所以我们看到了稳步的进展，我们的观点是，我们可能比达到100亿美元销售额更快地实现15%的利润率。但实际上，我们是一家在牛仔品类中稳步实现中个位数增长的公司，而这个品类本身的增长速度可能略低于此。因此，我们的观点是，我们现在是美国市场的领导者，男装排名第一，女装排名第一，并且深受年轻人的喜爱。所以问题在于，如果你能够保持并实施我们的战略。我们的观点是，我们可以继续保持市场领导地位，并可能获得一些市场份额，尤其因为牛仔品类正在加速发展。我们已经看到了美国市场和海外市场的加速增长，这主要是由全球休闲化趋势推动的。

Bailey: Yeah, I have more jeans in my wardrobe than I've ever had since high school. It's really kind of wild. Anyway, Bailey, I know you've got another question. I was just going to ask in terms of geographic expansion when you think about China, what's going on with China? And also, what products do the Chinese consumers want? Is it that high-end good or is it more of a bargain purchase?

贝利: 是的，我衣柜里的牛仔裤比我高中以来任何时候都多。这真的很疯狂。总之，贝利，我知道你还有其他问题。我本来想问一下，在地域扩张方面，当你考虑到中国时，中国市场现在情况如何？另外，中国消费者想要什么样的产品？是高端商品还是更多的是廉价购买？

Harmit: Yeah. So, China for us is still underpenetrated. China represents about 2 or 3% of our business. Our business in China has been slow and soft. The Chinese consumer right now is going through a bit of a macro uncertain climate. But the good news for us is they love the brand. Our brand equity scores are really solid. We think China can be a business that grows double digit over the long term. But to your specific question, the Chinese consumer is fairly discerning on the brands he or she gravitate to. There is a high-end consumer as well as a consumer that likes the mid-market consumer. What we call the core product. So if you think about our Asia strategy, our products are relevant for the mid-market consumer while we also offer products for the higher premium end consumer. 30% of the Asian denim category is premium, and premium, for example, our highest pinnacle product is largely Japanese fabric, Japanese denim and inspired by salvage. And so that's what we are selling and I think over time we'll be able to start growing our China business back into the low double digit range.

哈米特: 是的。对我们来说，中国市场仍未充分渗透。中国业务约占我们总业务的2%或3%。我们在中国的业务一直缓慢而疲软。中国消费者目前正经历一些宏观不确定性气候。但对我们来说的好消息是，他们热爱这个品牌。我们的品牌资产得分非常稳固。我们认为中国业务长期来看可以实现两位数增长。但具体到你的问题，中国消费者对他们倾向的品牌相当挑剔。有高端消费者，也有喜欢中端市场的消费者。我们称之为核心产品。所以如果你考虑我们的亚洲战略，我们的产品既适用于中端市场消费者，也为高端优质消费者提供产品。亚洲牛仔品类中30%是高端产品，例如，我们最高端的旗舰产品主要采用日本面料、日本牛仔布，并受到复古风格的启发。这就是我们正在销售的产品，我认为随着时间的推移，我们将能够使我们的中国业务恢复到低两位数增长的范围。

Bailey: Interesting. Seth, I will say, Carol, I know you mentioned you have more jeans than ever. I have been buying the sherpa jackets, the denim jackets like crazy. I don't know why I have three of them in different colors.

贝利: 有趣。塞斯，我想说，卡罗尔，我知道你提到你的牛仔裤比以往任何时候都多。我一直在疯狂购买羊羔绒夹克，牛仔夹克。我不知道为什么我有三件不同颜色的。

Carol: I bought a bunch of denim jackets. That's what I'm in. I'm like, I don't wear jeans. I wear chinos, but I wear the denim jackets like crazy.

卡罗尔: 我买了一大堆牛仔夹克。我就是这样。我不会穿牛仔裤，我穿斜纹棉布裤，但我疯狂地穿牛仔夹克。

Bailey: I know. I just, I don't know. I love it. I love it. It's like everybody I work jeans every morning.

贝利: 我知道。我只是，我不知道。我喜欢。我喜欢。就像我每天早上都穿牛仔裤工作一样。

Harmit: Yeah. And Bailey and Carol, now we've got the Blue Tab. It's a fuller jacket. You can definitely wear it to the office depending on the dress environment at Bloomberg. I walked in here fairly casual. So it's something that we are now beginning to offer, which should make your wardrobe at some stage.

哈米特: 是的。贝利和卡罗尔，现在我们有了Blue Tab系列。它是一款更丰满的夹克。你绝对可以穿着它去办公室，这取决于彭博社的着装环境。我今天来这里穿得相当随意。所以这是我们现在开始提供的一些产品，应该会在某个阶段成为你衣橱的一部分。

Carol: Hey, one last question. Does it feel, Harmit, it's been a crazy year and a lot of stuff coming at everybody, investors, the world at large. Does it feel like things are starting to calm down on a day when we've talked about what seems like progress in a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas?

卡罗尔: 嘿，最后一个问题。哈米特，你觉得今年过得很疯狂，投资者和整个世界都面临着很多事情。在我们讨论以色列和哈马斯之间停火似乎取得进展的这一天，你觉得事情开始平静下来了吗？

Harmit: Yeah, as I mentioned earlier, we have lived through uncertainty. The good news for us is the category is strong. We have real business momentum. The brand's never been stronger and we have a product pipeline that has never been fuller, especially as we head towards holiday. Our focus right now is making sure our product is on the floor because what we have seen, Carol, is consumers gravitate to newness and gravitate to what's relevant. And our view is if we can offer the right product and build a brand experience, and that's why we've got real focus on our direct-to-consumer business while complementing growth with our wholesale business (批发业务: 产品通过第三方零售商或分销商销售). So this quarter, both DDC and wholesale were up. We had in the US five consecutive quarters of high growth and it's fueled by both the channels.

哈米特: 是的，正如我之前提到的，我们已经经历了不确定性。对我们来说的好消息是，这个品类表现强劲。我们拥有真正的业务发展势头。品牌从未如此强大，我们的产品线也从未如此丰富，尤其是在我们迈向假日季的时候。我们目前关注的重点是确保我们的产品上架，因为卡罗尔，我们看到消费者倾向于新颖和相关的产品。我们的观点是，如果我们能提供正确的产品并建立品牌体验，这就是为什么我们非常重视直接面向消费者（direct-to-consumer）业务，同时通过批发业务（wholesale business: 产品通过第三方零售商或分销商销售）来补充增长。所以本季度，直销和批发业务都实现了增长。我们在美国连续五个季度实现高速增长，这得益于这两个渠道。

Carol: All right. Well, Harmit, when you talk with your design team, I like high waist buttons, kind of slim through the legs and then a little flare. I'm just going to put it out there. A little stretch in there too is kind of my favorite. My favorite, my favorite. And you are Jeff. Thank you.

卡罗尔: 好的。哈米特，当你和你的设计团队交流时，我喜欢高腰扣款，腿部修身然后略微喇叭口。我就直说了。带一点弹性也是我的最爱。我的最爱，我的最爱。你是杰夫。谢谢。

Harmit: Yeah. I'll take that feedback, Karen. I sincerely believe feedback is a gift and getting feedback from consumers like yourself is something that I'll take upon myself to feed back to our designers.

哈米特: 是的。我会采纳那个反馈，卡伦。我真诚地相信反馈是一种礼物，从像你这样的消费者那里获得反馈，我会亲自转达给我们的设计师。

Carol: All right, I'm going to hold you to it. All right, good stuff. Thank you so much. Harmit Singh, chief financial and growth officer over at Levi Strauss joining us from our bureau in San Francisco. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5:00 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iheartradio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube, and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

卡罗尔: 好的，我会记住的。好的，非常棒。非常感谢。李维斯首席财务兼增长官哈米特·辛格从我们在旧金山的办事处连线我们。这里是《彭博商业周刊日报》播客，可在苹果、Spotify以及您获取播客的任何其他平台收听。请在彭博社网站、iheartradio应用程序、TuneIn和彭博商业应用程序上，于工作日下午2点至5点（东部时间）收听我们的直播。您也可以在每个工作日在YouTube上观看我们的直播，并始终在彭博终端上观看。