开启内容3.0时代:AI驱动的互动体验
一幅经过巧妙处理的《蒙娜丽莎》画像,月球表面的TEDAI,以及一个你正在探索的3D奇幻世界——它们有什么共同之处?
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An image of the Mona Lisa with a twist. TEDAI, on the surface of the Moon. A 3D fantasy world that you can see being explored here. What do they have in common?
它们并非以传统意义上由人类创造,而是由人工智能(AI)生成。
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They weren't created by humans in the traditional sense. They were generated by AI.
这正是我所称的内容3.0(Content 3.0: 由AI生成并支持用户互动的数字内容)的开端,它开启了我们前所未有的可能性。
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That is the very beginning of what I call content 3.0. It opens up possibilities we've never had before.
它让故事讲述者、艺术家、创作者与我们观众之间能够共同创作内容,与他们的创作互动,与他们的角色对话,探索他们的世界,并且我们每个人都能沉浸在他们创作中最享受的部分。
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Co-creating content together between storytellers, artists, creators, and us viewers. Interacting with their creations, talking with their characters, exploring their worlds and each and every one of us leaning into what we enjoy most in their creations.
我预计这将对媒体和娱乐领域产生与从定时广播转向点播流媒体同样深远的影响。
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I expect this to have as profound an impact on the media and entertainment landscape as the shift from scheduled broadcasting to on-demand streaming.
这是一场真正的范式转变,将使体验比以往任何时候都更具吸引力。
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A true paradigm shift that will make experiences more engaging than ever.
让我们来深入探讨这可能意味着什么。为此,我们将使用数字内容的分类法。
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Let's unpack what this could look like. To do so, we'll use a taxonomy of digital content.
数字内容的演变:从1.0到3.0
内容1.0(Content 1.0: 传统专业制作、单向观看的数字内容)是仅供你观看的内容。
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Content 1.0 is content that is just viewed by you.
我今天用“观看”这个词来指代我们能体验到的所有类型的内容。
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I use the word “view” today for all types of content we can experience.
内容2.0(Content 2.0: 用户生成、上传和分享的数字内容)可能是由你上传的。想想现代社交媒体。
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Content 2.0 is possibly uploaded by you. Think about modern social media.
内容3.0是由你生成的。专业人士可能已经训练了模型,准备了设置,但最终,你也是创作的一部分。
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Content 3.0 is generated by you. Professionals may have trained the models, prepared the setting for it, but in the end, you are a part of creating it.
让我们仔细看看。内容1.0是专业的。通常许多人聚在一起创造它,并为他们的受众提供最佳体验。
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Let's have a closer look. Content 1.0 is professional. Often many people come together to create it and the best experiences for their audience.
想想书籍、文章、音乐、电影、游戏等。它在互联网上创造了,并且仍在创造大量财富。
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Think about books, articles, music, movies, games, etc. It made and makes a lot of money on the internet.
制作成本也非常高。整个公司都围绕着它的创作、拥有分发渠道并旨在塑造流行文化而建立。
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It's also very expensive to make. Entire companies are built around creating it, owning their distribution channels, and aiming to shape pop culture.
内容2.0是个人化的。从简单的个人主页、表情包和博客开始,随着消费级录制设备的普及和媒体共享平台变得更加强大,它演变为包含越来越高保真度的内容。
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Content 2.0 is personal. What started with simple home pages for everyone, memes and blogs, evolved to include content with increasing fidelity as consumer recording devices became more prevalent and media-sharing platforms more powerful.
这最终形成了现代社交媒体,数十亿人正在创作和分享内容。
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This culminates in modern social media. With billions of people creating and sharing content.
我们预计仅在2025年,内容1.0和2.0之间将产生超过100泽字节(Zettabytes: 数据存储单位,1泽字节等于1万亿吉字节)的数据。
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Between content 1.0 and 2.0, we expect to create over 100 zettabytes of data in 2025 alone.
如果我们能及时设置一台高清摄像机,以每小时3吉字节(典型的高清视频流)的速度录制,这台摄像机将不得不从38亿年前开始录制才能记录下如此大量的数据。
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If we could set up an HD camera back in time, recording three gigabytes an hour, a typical HD video stream, this camera would have to start recording 3.8 billion years in the past to record this amount of data.
最初不会有很多动态可看,因为那远远早于地球上复杂生命的出现。
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There would not be much motion to watch at first, since that is way before the dawn of complex life on Earth.
如果这是一部20集的电视剧,恐龙的整个时期可能只有一集。而30万年的人类历史几乎不会在片尾字幕中出现。
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If this were a 20-episode TV show, the entire period of dinosaurs would just be maybe one episode. And 300,000 years of human history would barely register in the credits.
如果我们幸运的话,它可能只是下一件大事的预告。这就是内容量之大令人难以置信的程度。
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If we are lucky, as a teaser for the next big thing. That is how unbelievably much content that is.
而这仅仅是我们预计在2025年一年内增加的数据量。
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And that is just what we're expected to add in 2025 alone.
AI模型的力量与沉浸式世界的构建
现在,如此庞大的数据量和内容正是AI模型和整个内容3.0时代到来的动力。它是生成式的。
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Now, this great amount of data and content is what powers the dawn of AI models and overall content 3.0. It is generative.
有了这些数据和内容,AI模型可以学会理解它,甚至复制和生成它。
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With these amounts of data and content, AI models can learn to understand it, even to reproduce it and produce it.
例如,大型语言模型(Large Language Models: 经过海量文本数据训练,能够理解和生成人类语言的AI模型)如今已无需介绍。
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For instance, large language models need no introduction today.
GPT-3(Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3: 由OpenAI开发的大型语言模型)在数千亿个词汇上进行了训练,这些词汇来自文章、书籍、社交媒体帖子和代码。
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GPT-3 was trained on hundreds of billions of words. Texts from articles, books, social media posts, code.
当你向它发出提示时,它会根据之前所见的内容来创建可能的延续。
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When you prompt it, it will rely on what it has seen before to create a likely continuation.
但内容3.0超越了文本,其他模型可以为其他模态做到这一点:代码、图像、音乐,所有这些都开始看起来相当不错。
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But content 3.0 goes beyond text, and other models can do this for other modalities: code, images, music, all of these are starting to look pretty good.
甚至视频也变得有趣起来。让我们看看未来的TED AI会是什么样子。
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Even video is getting interesting. Let's have a look at what TED AI could look like in the future.
(视频)第一届TED大会在加利福尼亚州蒙特雷举行。克里斯托弗·拉斯纳说:“而那一个,在月球上。”
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(Video) The very first TED conference was held in Monterey, California. Christoph Lassner: And that one, on the Moon.
让我们看看我们何时能到达那里。但与此同时,我们已经通过最先进的视频和音频模型看到了这个预览。
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Let's see when we'll get there. But in the meantime, we have this preview thanks to state-of-the-art video and audio models.
现在,我们能否将其提升到另一个层次?如果不是创建从单一视角拍摄的视频片段,我们能否创建一个完整的世界,让你能够探索每一个角度,环顾每一个角落?
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Now, can we take this to another level? What if instead of creating a video clip shot from a single viewpoint we could create an entire world where you can explore every angle and you can look around every corner?
这正是我目前作为World Labs(一家致力于构建空间智能互动系统的公司)的联合创始人所致力于的工作。
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That is what I'm currently working on as a co-founder of World Labs.
在World Labs,我们正在构建系统,让你能够与空间智能(Spatial Intelligence: 理解、推理和生成空间数据的能力)进行交互,理解、推理并生成空间数据。
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At World Labs, we are building systems that let you interact with spatial intelligence, understanding, reasoning about, and generating spatial data.
你在这里看到的房间并不真实存在。它们是生成的。
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The rooms you see here don't physically exist. They have been generated.
我们的模型可以从一张图片中做到这一点。这为艺术家、创作者、开发者,有时也仅仅是为了享受一个美丽奇幻的环境提供了可能。
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Our models can do that from a single image. For artists, creators, developers, and sometimes just to enjoy a beautiful, fantastical environment.
我们的模型之所以能做到这一点,是因为我们帮助它们以空间方式解释海量数据。
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Our models can do this because we help them interpret vast amounts of data in a spatial way.
例如,你可以在左下方看到这个在旧金山漫步的视频。
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For example, this video of a walk through San Francisco you see on the bottom left.
我们的模型随后学会理解3D世界是什么样的,以及它们如何被探索和生成。
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Our models then learn to understand what 3D worlds look like, how they can be explored and generated.
所以现在我们已经定义并理解了这种分类法和不同类型的内容。
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So now we have defined and understand this taxonomy and the different types of content.
但这就是内容3.0的全部吗?
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But is this everything content 3.0 is ever going to be?
当我审视我们刚刚讨论过的模型时,我将它们视为拼图的一部分和某事的开端,而非其结论。
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When I look at the models we just talked about, I see them as pieces of a puzzle and the beginning of something instead of its conclusion.
互动叙事与个性化体验的未来
当然,我们可以将内容3.0模型作为工具来创造更多内容1.0和2.0。
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Of course, we can use content 3.0 models as tools to create more of content 1.0 and 2.0.
想象一下一个流媒体服务,你描述你梦想中的电影,它在几分钟内就会出现。一个社交平台,你上传一个视频,只需一个提示,它就会立即转化为专业的网红剪辑。
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Just imagine a streaming service where you describe your dream movie and it appears in minutes. A social platform where you upload a video and it's just a prompt, and it is immediately transformed into a professional influencer clip.
所以所有这些都可能成为现实,但我认为这仍然没有充分发挥这些模型的潜力。
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So all of this may become a reality, but I think it's still not realizing the full potential of these models.
这就是我开始梦想新型叙事、互动世界和体验的地方,梦想着我们能以比对话框更自然的方式与角色互动,梦想着我们能探索没有人工边界的世界,梦想着非预设的叙事。
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And this is where I start to dream about new kinds of storytelling, interactive worlds and experiences, about characters that we can interact with in so much more natural ways than just dialogue boxes, about worlds that we can explore with no artificial boundaries, about narratives that are not predetermined.
自从青少年时期玩3D游戏,开发模组、关卡、角色以来,我的旅程一直朝着这个方向发展,我认为现在我们有机会借助内容3.0实现巨大的飞跃。
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Since being a teenager and playing 3D games, developing mods, levels, characters, my journey has taken me further in this direction and I think now we have an opportunity to take a huge leap forward thanks to content 3.0.
原因是,我们现在可以以等于或高于消费速度的速度创造有趣的内容。
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The reason is that we can now create interesting content at or above the rate of consumption.
这个事实的影响怎么强调都不为过。
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The impact of this fact cannot be overstated.
想象一下米开朗基罗眨眼间画出一幅画,比你观看它的速度还快。或者伊恩·弗莱明在你阅读他的詹姆斯·邦德小说时同时创作,甚至在我们阅读时为你制作一部完整的电影。
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Just imagine Michelangelo painting an image in the blink of an eye, faster than you can look at it. Or Ian Fleming, writing his James Bond novels while you're reading them, and even doing a full movie production for you while we're at it.
这意味着对于每个独立的观众,我们都可以即时发展叙事。
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This means that for every individual viewer, we can develop narrative on the fly.
在人类历史的任何时刻,我们都从未能够做到这一点。即兴表演之所以如此有趣,是因为演员们在舞台上没有计划地表演,即兴创作接下来发生的事情。
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We have never been able to do this before at any point in human history. Improv is so interesting and fun because actors play it out on stage without a plan, improvising what happens next.
但这仅限于每组演员一个叙事,并由所有观众共享。
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But this is limited to one narrative per group of actors and shared across the whole audience.
我们现在可以让艺术家和制作人创造一个故事的舞台:一个有议程的反派,一个有有趣背景故事的英雄,以及一个世界将被渲染的风格。
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We can now have artists and producers create a stage for a story. A villain with an agenda. A hero with an interesting back story. A style for a world to be rendered in.
仅此而已。从这里开始,故事将在这个世界和每个独立的观众之间展开。
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And that's it. From here on out, the story will develop between this world and every individual viewer.
请注意这与内容1.0,甚至内容1.0游戏有何不同。在那里,故事是提前准备好的,角色是预设脚本的。
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Notice how different that is from content 1.0, even content 1.0 games. There, the story is prepared in advance, their characters are scripted.
这导致的主动性(agency)非常不同。
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The amount of agency this results in is very different.
更重要的是,角色可以为每个独立的观众打破第四面墙(Fourth Wall: 戏剧和电影中,将演员与观众分隔开的假想墙,打破它意味着角色直接与观众互动)。
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Even more, characters can break the fourth wall for every individual viewer.
这在以前也从未成为可能。想象一个演员向每个观众伸出手,与他们进行有意义的对话,或者对他们做出反应。
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This has also never been possible before. Imagine an actor reaching out to every single viewer and having a meaningful conversation with them, or reacting to them.
或者观众主动联系他们,告诉他们反派在哪里,或者提供一个情节转折的新想法。
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Or the viewer, reaching out to them and telling them where the villain is to be found, or a new idea for a plot twist.
所以,在追捕超级反派和赛车之间,未来的詹姆斯·邦德可能会转向你,和你进行一次随意的聊天。
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So between hunting supervillains and racing sports cars, a future James Bond might turn to you and have a casual chat.
你会问他维也纳炸肉排的食谱吗?我还是会选择他的马提尼。
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Would you ask him about his Wiener schnitzel recipe? I would stick with his martinis.
或者和他一起制定策略,找出反派的藏身之处,但你明白我的意思。
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Or strategize with him about where the villain can be found, but you see the point.
它开启了一个全新的、迄今为止未被充分探索的媒介。
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It opens up an entirely new and so far underexplored medium.
内容生产模式的经济学变革
那么,让我们来看看。对于内容1.0,制作人齐心协力创造内容。
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So let's have a look. For content 1.0, we have producers come together to create content.
我在这里以最广义的说法谈论它:作家、演员、导演、艺术家,所有参与创作该内容的人。
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I'm talking about this in the most general sense. Writers, actors, directors, artists, everyone who is involved in creating that piece of content.
这件内容只创作一次,以吸引尽可能多的人。它有很高的固定成本,制作人提前支付制作和分发费用。
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This piece of content is created once to appeal to as many people as possible. It has a high fixed cost, and the producers are paying for production and distribution in advance.
这意味着这件内容必须吸引尽可能多的人。我们必须以低风险争取巨大的成功,面向非常大的目标受众。
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So that means that this piece of content has to appeal to as many people as possible. And we have to aim for big successes at low risk, with a very large target audience.
内容2.0改变了这些等式。观众就是制作人。
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Content 2.0 changes these equations. Viewers are producers.
我们有许多成本较低的小型内容制作。社交网络承担了分发成本,将内容匹配给合适的受众。
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We have lots of smaller content productions at lower cost. A social network is shouldering the cost of distribution, matching content to the right audience.
每个人都有动力创造病毒式内容,但它也可以是小众的。毕竟,小众内容的粉丝也在制作它。
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Everyone has an incentive to create viral content, but it can be niche. After all, fans of niche content are also producing it.
所有这一切都与广告驱动的商业模式完美契合。
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All this goes hand-in-hand perfectly with an ad-driven business model.
内容3.0有机会再次彻底改变这一切。制作人可以专注于创建一个模型。
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Content 3.0 has a chance to completely change this, again. The producers can focus on creating a model.
这甚至不必是最终的内容,它可以是内容的设置、舞台、世界,角色的背景故事和他们的处境。
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This does not even have to be the final content, it can be the setting, the stage, the world for the content to play in, the background stories of the characters and their situation.
然后,内容将与每个观众单独共同创作,实时展开,模糊了电影等经典线性媒体与游戏等互动媒体之间的界限,并超越了这些。
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The content is then co-created with every viewer individually, playing out live, blurring the lines between classic linear media, like movies, and interactive media, like games. And going beyond that.
当然,这不会容易。最初的尝试可能会失败。最初的尝试可能看起来很笨拙。
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Now, this won't be easy. Initial attempts may fail. Initial attempts may look awkward.
但请记住,从电影的发明到能够制作经久不衰的影片,我们花了数十年时间。
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But remember, it took us several decades from the invention of movies to be able to make films that stand the test of time.
在计算机发明后的几十年里,我们才弄清楚如何制作经久不衰的电脑游戏,而在过去几年里,我们才刚刚看到这些新工具的最初实验。
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It took us a few decades after the invention of computers, to figure out how to make computer games that stand the test of time, and over the last years, we have only seen the very first experiments with these new tools.
它们的经济学也根本不同。由于更好的AI工具,我们看到静态内容制作的成本降低。
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Their economics are also fundamentally different. We're seeing cost reductions and static content production thanks to better AI tools.
但对于完全即时生成的动态体验,每个观众的成本远高于内容1.0和2.0。
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But for fully, on-the-fly generated dynamic experiences, the cost per viewer is much higher than for content 1.0 and 2.0.
因此,即使是创造热门作品的经济学,也可能与内容1.0和2.0大相径庭。
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So even the economics of making hits might look quite different than for content 1.0 and 2.0.
这一切目前都在迅速发展,我很高兴看到它在未来几年将如何演变。
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This is all currently rapidly evolving, and I'm excited to see how it will develop over the next years.
简而言之,内容1.0仅供你观看。内容2.0可能是由你上传的。内容3.0是由你生成或与你共同生成的。
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So in short, content 1.0 is just viewed by you. Content 2.0 is possibly uploaded by you. Content 3.0 is generated by you or together with you.
更重要的是,展望未来,我预计你将置身其中,成为故事的一部分,或与之互动。
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Even more, going forward, I expect you'll be in it and a part of the story or interacting with it.
一代中最优秀的讲故事者将始终利用他们拥有的工具讲述最好的故事。内容3.0为他们提供了这一点。
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The best storytellers of a generation will always tell the best stories with the tools they have. Content 3.0 gives them that.
这是一套我们才刚刚开始理解和探索的全新工具。这些工具将需要掌握新技能,新一代艺术家将向我们展示它可能是什么样子。
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An entirely new set of tools that we are just beginning to understand and explore. These tools will require new skills to master, and a new generation of artists will show us what that can look like.
那么,你觉得呢,邦德先生?(视频中邦德说:)嘿,克里斯。内容3.0将非常棒,我们开始吧。
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So what do you think, Mr. Bond? (Video) Bond: Hey, Chris. Content 3.0 will be awesome, let's go.
(克里斯托弗·拉斯纳说:)谢谢。
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CL: Thank you.