爱泼斯坦案:熟悉度错觉下的真相迷雾
大家好,欢迎来到夸克说。最近,美国司法部(US Department of Justice: 负责联邦法律执行和司法管理的政府部门)根据新颁布的《爱泼斯坦透明法案》(Epstein Transparency Act),分批公布了超过一百万页的原始调查文件,使得沉寂已久的爱泼斯坦案(Jeffrey Epstein Case: 涉及美国金融家杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的性贩卖和性虐待未成年人丑闻)再次回到公众视野,成为舆论焦点。爱泼斯坦案之所以如此广为人知,以至于几乎人人都听过,但恰恰因为这种“熟悉”,反而一定程度上阻碍了公众对其的深入理解。
这背后存在一种心理学和社会传播现象,称为熟悉度错觉(Familiarity Illusion: 当一个人或事件过于出名,多次听到后,大脑会自动认为已理解,从而停止进一步探索,导致理解肤浅甚至错误)。当一个事件或人物过于出名,你听过太多次,你的大脑会自动认为你已经理解了它,从而停止寻求进一步的信息,导致你对其只有肤浅甚至错误的认知。
以爱因斯坦为例,人人都知道他,但如果你被问到:爱因斯坦在现实生活中是怎样的人?他的政治倾向如何?性格是内向还是外向?如果他活在今天,他的推特会是什么样子?恐怕很少有人能回答。你所知道的爱因斯坦,可能只是那个头发蓬乱、吐着舌头的老头,人类历史上最伟大的科学家之一,创造了E=mc²和相对论。
这种现象之所以发生,是因为过于出名的事物必然进入大众传播领域,并被反复传播。然而,大众传播无法深入探讨太多细节和复杂性,只能使用标签,因为标签易于记忆。例如,提到诸葛亮,你想到的是“鞠躬尽瘁,死而后已”;提到岳飞,你想到的是“精忠报国”;提到汪精卫,你想到的是“汉奸”。同样,爱泼斯坦案也面临类似情况,人人都知道它,但案件的细节、涉及的人物、经历的曲折以及它所反映的美国社会问题,却很少有人能说清楚,尤其是在中文语境下,信息更是真假混杂。在接下来的两期节目中,我将系统地探讨这个案件。本期节目将聚焦爱泼斯坦案本身,包括他的崛起之路——如何从一无所有的割草工,建立起一个横跨多国、连接政界、科学界乃至艺术界名流的帝国。节目的后半部分,我将重点分析一些最重要的人物,包括特朗普(Donald Trump)、克林顿(Bill Clinton)、比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates),以及最具争议和问题的人物——埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk),他们是否参与其中,参与程度如何。我还会分析互联网上流传的一些最常见的谣言。
Original English Source
hello, everyone. welcome to cork says i'm core recently, the US department of justice in accordance with the recently enacted abstein transparency act, released more than million pages of original investigation files in batches. as a result, the long dormment abstein case has once again return to the public spotlight and become a focus of public attention. the abstein case is so well known that almost everyone has heard of it, but precisely because of this, it has to some extent, hindered the public understanding of it. why? because there's a phenomenon in psychology in social communication called the familiarity illusion. this means that when an eventor person is too famous, and you heard about it. so many times your brain automatically assumes you already understand it and stop seeking further information, leading to only a superficial or even incorrect understanding. for example, everyone knows einstein, right? but if i were to ask you, what kind of person was einstein in real life? what were his political leanings? what was his personality like? was he tasted in or socially outgoing? what would his tweets look like if you were alive today? probably very few people could answer what you know about einstein is probably just that einsteal golve man with messy hair and a protruding time. one of the greatest scientists and human history who created equals mix squred in the theory of relativity. why does this happen? because if something is too famous, it inevitably enters the realm of mass communication and is repeatedly disseminated mass communication, however, cannot delve into too much depth for complexity and can only use labels because they are easy to remember. for example, when you mention zooooly yang, you think of certain the country, dilegally and tal death. when you mention ed, you e, you think of certain the country willy. and when you mention wanging way, you think of traitder, similarly, the upstein case faces a similar situation, everyone knows about it. but the details of the case who was involved, what twists in turns, it went through. and what problems in american society, it reflects are things that very few people can answer, especially in the chinese speaking world. the information is a mix of truth and lies in the next two episodes. i, the systematically discuss this itself. in this first episode, i will focus on the estein ase ase itself, including his rise to prominence ence how he, he starfrom huhumble ginnings as popoboy with nothing, building an empire of connections that spend across multiple countries and the next two prominfifiguin in litics and even the scientific artistic fields in the latter half of the program, i will focus on some of the most important names involved, including trump clinton, bill gates and the most controversial and problematic. one yellon must did they participate. and to what extent i will also analyze some of the most common rumors circulating on the internet in the next episode. i will combine what i've learned to discuss the chinese version of jeoffrey epsine story, which is both familiar and yet unfamiliar to many without further to do, lets begin.
爱泼斯坦的崛起:从割草工到“表演型天才”
杰弗里·爱德华·爱泼斯坦(Jeffrey Edward Epstein)于1953年1月出生在纽约布鲁克林的一个东欧犹太家庭。按照我们通常的理解,出生在纽约且是犹太人,通常意味着优渥的背景。然而,爱泼斯坦却是一个不幸的“三无犹太人”:没钱、没关系、没学历。他曾在附近的公园割草,甚至没有继承犹太人传统中对学术的重视。他毕业于一所非常普通的公立高中,两次进入大学,却都中途辍学,甚至没有拿到学士学位。
据他身边人的访谈和回忆,年轻时的爱泼斯坦表现出极度的、近乎病态的缺乏耐心,以及作为割草工儿子的强烈阶级焦虑(Class Anxiety: 对自身社会经济地位的不满和渴望提升的心理状态)。简单来说,他不想按部就班,他梦想着一夜暴富。有两点重要证据支持这一点:
首先是他的语言能力。他极其擅长模仿上流社会的言谈举止和礼仪。这在纽约中下层移民社区是一种常见的生存本能,而爱泼斯坦无疑是这方面的高手。他能从布鲁克林一个工人阶级犹太家庭的儿子,混迹于华尔街百万富翁、好莱坞精英甚至皇室之间,正是他这种天赋的体现。
其次是他的两次大学辍学。爱泼斯坦很聪明,在布鲁克林的拉斐特高中(Lafayette High School)读书时,他就因出色的数学能力跳级,并被库珀联盟学院(Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art: 纽约著名私立大学,以艺术、建筑和工程学闻名)的物理设计专业和纽约大学(New York University: 位于纽约市的私立研究型大学)的数学研究生项目录取。然而,他很快意识到身边真正的天才太多,仅凭他的小聪明不足以让他脱颖而出,实现阶级跃升。于是,在1971年,当他意识到数学无法给他带来私人飞机和百万财富时,他再次辍学,转而前往曼哈顿顶尖私立学校道尔顿学校(Dalton School: 纽约市一所精英私立学校),那里精英子弟云集,教授物理和数学。
有人可能会觉得奇怪,数学赚不到钱,当高中老师又能赚多少钱?然而,这确实能让他致富。爱泼斯坦发现,他的数学能力具有很强的表演性(Performative Aspect: 强调展示和效果而非实质内容的特质)。虽然他在学术上无法出类拔萃,但在社交场合却非常有用。这意味着爱泼斯坦拥有超凡的心算能力(Mental Calculation Skills: 在不使用计算工具的情况下进行复杂数学运算的能力)。例如,你给他一个随机问题,如3954乘以8537,他能立即算出答案,无需计算器。对普通人来说,这无疑是数学天才。然而,这是一种更适合表演的天才,而非真正的数学家所需。真正的数学家依赖逻辑推导和抽象边界的探索,这需要专注和艰苦的努力。爱泼斯坦的心算能力更像是一种智力表演(Intellectual Showmanship: 在社交场合通过展示智力技巧来吸引他人注意和钦佩的行为)。在充满权贵人士的社交场合,抛出一个深奥的数学猜想远不如表演一个六位数乘法的心算令人印象深刻。这种表演型的天才可以瞬间制造出一种智力优越的假象,让那些富裕但可能智力平平的人产生敬畏感。据他身边人回忆,这种心算表演后来成为爱泼斯坦的核心社交资产之一,他多次使用这个“把戏”。这个把戏就像一个花花公子为了搭讪女性而表演的小魔术。直白地说,在数学领域,他籍籍无名,但在智力门槛较低但社会地位较高的社交圈中,他却是一个能够智力碾压他人的天才。如果你还不明白,想想娱乐圈里有多少明星,高考勉强考了五百多分,勉强进入一流大学,却被吹捧为学霸天才。原因很简单,他们玩的是一场“被操纵的游戏”(Rigged Game: 指规则或条件被预设,以利于特定一方,从而使结果不公平的竞争)。
事实上,爱泼斯坦人生中几个重要的转折点都与这种社交表演有关。例如,他进入道尔顿学校教书,被前同事们认为是“不可思议的安全漏洞”(Security Loophole: 系统中存在的,可能被利用来规避规则或造成危害的缺陷)。一个没有学位、没有教师资格证、没有教学经验的人,怎么能在纽约最好的私立学校之一教数学和物理?这种荒谬程度堪比俞敏洪(Yu Minhong: 新东方教育集团创始人)和新东方(New Oriental: 中国著名教育培训机构)的故事。据后来的回忆,他在面试时,没有谈如何教孩子,也没有谈如何写教案,而是直接在黑板上推导数学公式,并当场表演心算。简而言之,他表现得像电影《心灵捕手》(Good Will Hunting)中马特·达蒙(Matt Damon: 美国演员,曾主演《心灵捕手》)饰演的角色——一个古怪而傲慢的数学天才。这种表演彻底征服了校长。想想看,我们对天才是不是总有一些刻板印象和幻想?看电影、电视剧时,我们总觉得正规教育体制太僵化,只有那些不拘一格、放荡不羁、随口就能算出759平方根的人,更重要的是,那些辍学的人才是真正的天才。他的表演完美契合了电影、电视剧中描绘的那种天才形象。如果不雇佣他,难道不怕他被竞争对手挖走吗?
进入道尔顿学校只是爱泼斯坦计划的第一步。他的计划是:“我现在还是个穷光蛋,接触不到上流社会的权贵,但他们的孩子都在道尔顿学校。凭借我数学天才的人设,让这些孩子认可我、崇拜我,并与他们建立信任,简直是小菜一碟。等这些孩子接管家族企业,成为议员或部长时,他们会向谁寻求建议?当然是我。”这叫什么?这叫“接班人计划”(Succession Plan: 指为未来领导层或关键职位培养和选拔人才的策略)。爱泼斯坦的天才之处在于看穿了曼哈顿精英阶层的教育焦虑(Educational Anxiety: 对子女教育的担忧和期望,尤其是在竞争激烈的社会环境中)。无论你多富有,你总是希望你的孩子能向最聪明的人学习,而他的工作就是将自己包装成那个最聪明的人。在他的课堂上,他不按常理出牌,经常谈论量子物理和金融逻辑,让那些富二代们听得一愣一愣的。当这些孩子回家告诉他们华尔街的父亲,他们的新数学老师简直是个外星人时,他的鱼就上钩了。
事实上,爱泼斯坦的接班人计划进展得相当顺利。在道尔顿高中教书两年后,他转入金融业,在贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns: 曾是美国一家大型投资银行,后在2008年金融危机中倒闭)担任交易员,专门为高净值客户提供投资建议。这家公司的董事长正是他道尔顿学校一位学生的父亲。十五年后,他不仅成为贝尔斯登的合伙人,还创立了自己的金融公司,管理着超过10亿美元的资产。至此,爱泼斯坦完成了华丽的蜕变,实现了他的家族乃至前两代人都未曾达到的阶级跃升。
Original English Source
in january, nineteen, fifty three, jeoffrey edward epstein was born into an eastern european jewish family in brooklin new york city, according to our general understanding, being born in new york and being jewish would usually suggest well for some kind of background. however, epstein was unfortunately, a three, nothing jewish person, no money, no connections and no education. he worked as allong more in a nearby park, and he didn't even inheit the traditional jewish virtue of academic excellence. he graduated from a very ordinary public high school. and although he entered college twice, he dropped out both times without even completing his bathelor's degree based on interviews. and recollections from those around him, young epstein exhibited in extreme, almost pathological lack of patients and a strong class anxiety about his status as a long wor's son, sisimple terms. he didn't want to his his way. he he dreamed of a sudden leave to success. there are too important pieces of evidence to support this. firstly, his linguistictic abilities, he he his ltreingly skilled imitthe, imcenence and imnors of upper class society. this is a common survival instinct in the lower and middle class immigrant communities of new york and abstein was undoubtedly a master in this respect. his ability to go from a son of a working class jewish h in brooklyin mingingling with wall street millionaires hollywood elites, and even royalty is a testament to this talent. secondly, there are his two college dropouts. abstein was quite clever while still a student that lafayette high school in brrooklin. he skipped grades due to his exceptional math abilities. and was admitted to both the cooper union for the advancement of science and art and the mathematics graduate program in new york university. however, he soon realized there were too many true genius around him, and his cleveress alone wasn't enough to make him stand out and achieve upward. so formobility. so in nineteen thousand and seventy one, after realizing that mathematics wouldn't bring a millions in private jets, he dropped out of college again and went to dalton one of the top private schools in manhattan with the children of the elite congregreted to teach physics and mathematics, some might find a strange thinking, if math ccan't make money, how can being a high school teacher make him rich? well, it actually could abstein discovered that his mathematical abilities had a strong performative aspect while he couldn't excel in academics. it was very useful for social purposes. what does this mean? it means abstein had exceptional mental calculation skills. for example, if you give them a random problem, like three thousand nine hundred fifty four, multiply by eight thousand five hundred thirty seven. he accuculate the answer instantly without calculator, to ordinary people. this certainly seems like a mathematical genius. however, it's a kind of genius more suited for perforance, not necessssarthe kind. that makes a true mathematition. true mathematicians rely on logical deduction and the exploration of abstract boundaries, which requires dedicated work and painstaking effort. absteinin's mental calculation ability was more like intellectual showmanship in a social setting filled with influential people thrown out a profound mathematical. conjector is far less impressive than performing a mental calculation of a six digital lltiplication problem. this performit of genius can instantly create an illusion of intellect. superiority, instilling a sense of awe in wealthy individuals who, while rich might not be parparcularly intelliggaccorcording to those around him. this mental calculation performance later became one of abstin's core social assets. he used this trick on numerous occasions. this trick of his was like a little magic show performed by a playboy trying to flirt with women to put it blindly ly in mathetatics. he was in nobody, but in social circles with lower intellectual barriers, but higher social status. he was a genious capable of intellectually overpowing others if he still don't understand, think about whthere are so many celebrities in the entertainment industry, who barely cored five hundred on the college entrance exam, barely getting into a top tier university where are constantly praised as academigenuuthe reason is simple. they're playing a rigged game. in fact, several important turning points in epsteen's life were related to this social performance. for example, his entry into teaching, a dalton school was considered an incredible security loophole by former colleagues. how could someone with no degree, no teaching certificate and no teaching experience, get a job teaching mathematics and physics that one of the best private schools in new york. this level of absurdity is comparable to the story of middle school student yu minhong and new oriental. according to later recollections. during his interview, he didn't talk about how to teach children or how to write lesson plans. instead, he directly derive mathematical formulas on the blackboard and performed a mental calculation on the spot. in short, he acted like matt damon's character in the movie good will hunting, a quirky arrogant mathematical genius. this performance completely conquered the headmaster. think about it, don't we usually have some stereotypical impressions and fantasies about genius. when we watch movies and TV shows, we always feel that the regular education system is too rigid, and it only those were in articulate and unrestrained, and who can calculate the square root of seven hundred fifty nine off hand. and more importantly, those who drop out of school are the real genuses. this performance of his perfectly matches, the kind of genius portrayed movies and tv shows if they didn't hire him, wouldn't they risk him being poached by competitors. getting into dalton was just the first step in esteen's plan. his plan with something like like, i'm still still a poor guy. i can't access the powerful and influential people in high society, but their children are all adullin with my persona as a mathematical genius, getting these kids to recognize and admirme and building trust with them is a piece of k when they kids take over the family business and become members of parliament or ministers, who will they turn to for advice? of course, it will be made. what is this called? this is called the succession plan, epsteen's genius, lay and seen through the weakness. so the manhattan elite's educational anxiety, no matter how rich you are, you always hope your children can learn from the smartest people, and his job was to package himself, as that smartest person in his classes. he didn't play by the rules, often talking about quantum physics and financial logic, leaving those second-generation kids bewildered when these children went home and told their wall street mobile fathers that their new math teacher was practically in alien. his fish was hooked. in fact, estinin's succession plan went quite smoothly. after after two years years, teaching a dalton high school, he moved to the financial industry, working as a trader at bear sterns, providing investment device, specifically the high net worth clients. the chairman of the company was the father of one of his students from dolphin. fifteen years later, he not only became a partner at bear sterns, but also found found his own financial company managing assets worth over one billion dollars. with this eptime made brililant transformation completing a clasassent that neither his family nor the previous two generations had achieved.
社交连接者的艺术:资源整合与权力构建
事实上,我在北京时也见过无数类似爱泼斯坦的人,你可以称他们为“掮客”(Fixer: 擅长利用人脉和资源解决问题或促成交易的人),也可以称他们为“艺术家”(Artist: 在某个领域有独特技能和创造力的人)。他们的共同特点是神秘莫测,看似没有任何非凡的专业技能,不是任何领域的专家,也没有任何杰出成就。他们每天只做一件事:参加各种招待会、派对、时装秀、慈善晚宴和社交活动,美其名曰“资源整合”(Resource Integration: 将分散的资源和人脉汇集起来,以实现特定目标的过程)。
关于这一点,爱泼斯坦的一位前客户,芝加哥商人史蒂文·马斯特罗(Steven Mastro: 曾因商业纠纷起诉爱泼斯坦的商人),后来因商业纠纷起诉他时曾这样描述:“你无法从爱泼斯坦那里得到任何确切的信息。他总是表现得非常神秘。所有与他打过交道的人都认为他聪明绝顶,但我从未见过他智力的任何证据,也从未见过他工作。我认识的那些有钱人,与他类似的人,宁愿一天工作26小时,而这家伙却把所有26小时都花在吃喝玩乐上。”从这个角度看,爱泼斯坦和那些所谓的“气功大师”王林之流本质上是同一类人。
有人可能会好奇,不就是富人的社交聚会吗?这有什么技术含量?我也很会社交,回老家参加同学聚会也能轻易召集一大帮人。但你必须明白,那种社交是基于一群彼此已经熟悉的人,你只需要稍微会社交一点,打几个电话,在社交媒体上点几个赞,就能组织起来。但专业的社交连接者,尤其是爱泼斯坦这种顶级的,则不同。他们的工作是把一群来自世界各地、已经站在财富和潜力金字塔顶端的人聚集在一起。要做到这一点,你必须迎合他们的兴趣,理解他们的欲望,并给予他们想要的东西。那么,这些富人到底想要什么呢?
我在这里补充一点:我们日常的社交活动或聚会通常都有一个正当的理由,甚至是一个高尚或神秘的借口或由头。例如,“我生日了”、“我们十年毕业周年了”、“老师生病了,我们去看看他”。富人圈子也是如此,他们只是更喜欢用大词,因为他们不一定是熟人,所以必须找一些大家假装关心的问题作为借口,比如慈善、科学峰会、物理研讨会等等。这就是为什么爱泼斯坦后来资助了一批顶尖科学家,包括霍金(Stephen Hawking: 英国著名理论物理学家),并邀请他们到他的岛上。这些人的存在被用来为活动增添声望。美国的富人圈子相对内敛,他们还会和你谈论一些事情,但中国类似的活动,比如著名的海南博鳌论坛(Boao Forum for Asia: 亚洲地区重要的非官方、非营利性国际会议组织),往往更加直接,直接展示游艇、私人飞机和房地产。
然而,仅仅有一个借口是不够的,还需要足够的社会资本(Social Capital: 指个人或群体通过社会关系网络获得的资源和优势)。换句话说,要有一些能引起参与者兴趣的东西。爱泼斯坦找到了他的第一种社会资本:跨行业资源网络(Cross-Industry Resource Networking: 跨越不同行业建立联系和整合资源的能力)。即使是顶级的精英,也有自己的认知和社会盲点。金融界的人想知道下一个大趋势在哪里,先进的AI是泡沫还是真材实料;科技界的人想知道政治气候和中美关系的未来走向;政界的人想知道哪些富人会支持他们的竞选,以及他们的对手是否有可以利用的黑料。
当然,爱泼斯坦很清楚,仅仅建立在“等价交换”(Quid Pro Quo: 指一方给予另一方某种好处,以换取对方的回报)基础上的关系是脆弱的,容易破裂。要让这些久经沙场、冷酷无情的“人精”真正团结起来,你必须部署第二种更强大的社会货币——性。
Original English Source
in fact, i theme countless people, similar ep, stein when i was in beijing ing, you can call them on on artists, or you can call them fixers. their common characteristic is that their mysterious seemingly without any extraordinary professional skills. they are not experts in any field, nor do they have any outstanding achievements. they only do one thing every day attending receptions parties, fashion shows charity dinners and social events uphaistically called resource integration. regarding this one of estents, former clients chicago steven mastro who later ursued him for business disputes described this way, you can't get any definite information from esteine. he always acts very mysterious. everyone who was associated with him thinks he is incredibly smart, but i have never seen any evidence of his intelligence nor have ever seen him work. quote, the wealthy people. i know similar to him would rather work twenty six hours a day, while this guy spends all twenty six hours eating drinking and having fun from this perspective, epstin. and that so called she gun master, wa nglin are essentially the same kind of people. some might be curious, saying it's just a social gathering or the wealthy. so skill involved. i'm also quite sociable. i can easily gather a bunch of people when i go back to my hometown for class reunions, but you have to understand that kind of social networking involves a group of people who are already familiar with each other. you just need to be a little sociable, make a few phone calls and get some likes on social media to organize a gathering, but professional social connectors, especially top tier ones like epstein are different. their job is to bring together a group of people from all over the world who are already at the top of the pyamid of potential and wealth. to do this, you have to cater to their interests, understand their desires and give them what they want. so what exactly do these wealthy people want. let me at a point here are daily social activities or gatherings usually have a legitimate reason, even something noble or mysterious, a pretext or a fasson. for example, it's my birthday of the weeks. ers are tenure graduation anniversary. the teachers sk, let's go visit him. the same applies to the circle of the wealthy. they just prefer to use big words because they aren't necessary ily nevermates, so they have to find issues that everyone pretends to care about as a pretext, such as charity, science, summits, physics, seminars. and so on. this is why abstin then funded a group of top scientists, including hawking and invited them to his island. the presence of these people is used to add prestige to the events. the wealthy circle in the US is relatively abdued. they still talk about things with you, but similar events in china, such as the famous boao forum for asia, are often much more straightforward directly showcasing yachts, private jets and real estate. but a mere pretext isn't enough, such also need sufficient social capital. in other words, something to peak the interest of the attendees, epstein found his first form of social capital connections across industry resource networking, even top tier letes have their own cognitive and social blind spots. those in finance want to know where the next big trend is how advancsday i is and whether it's just a bubble, those in technology want to know the political climate in the future direction of US china relations. those in politics want to know which wealthy individuals will support their campaigns. and whether their opponents have any dirt that can be used against them, of course, epstin understood very well. the connections built solely their quid pro coo or flimsy and easily broken to make these battle hardened cold blooded and said offsh alallow big shots truly ban together. you have to deploy a second even more powerful social currency, sex,
淫秽凝聚力:未成年少女与私人岛屿的深层逻辑
在社交圈中利用性作为润滑剂其实很常见。例如,一群男人或女人出去唱KTV,不也通常会邀请异性成员吗?你很少看到全男或全女的团体,对吧?当然,爱泼斯坦提供的远不止介绍几个女孩那么简单,而是一整套社交解决方案(Social Solution: 旨在满足特定社交需求或解决社交问题的综合性服务)。有人可能会说,不就是提供性服务、性娱乐吗?这种事情在中国司空见惯,全国各地哪个地方没有“歌舞团”?这有什么特别的?“社交解决方案”?如果你这样说,也许吧。但“萝莉岛”(Little Saint James Island: 爱泼斯坦拥有的私人岛屿,被指控为性贩卖活动的中心)这种事情在美国其实相当罕见。
首先,让我问你两个问题:
- 为什么爱泼斯坦不遗余力地在提供的性娱乐女孩中掺杂未成年少女(Underage Girls: 未达到法定性同意年龄的女性)?根据目前披露的信息,提供未成年少女的服务最初是爱泼斯坦自己提出的,而不是那些所谓的“客户”提出的。你要知道,美国不像中国,你可以随便找几个黑社会、人贩子,绑架一堆女孩,把她们锁在地下室。根据目前披露的信息,他主要是通过金钱诱惑(Financial Enticement: 利用金钱或其他物质利益引诱他人)和心理操控(Psychological Manipulation: 通过心理手段影响他人的思想、情感和行为)来控制这些女孩,而不是直接的暴力。例如,他会派人去贫困家庭或父母吸毒、需要钱的家庭物色女孩,然后提供经济援助,随后对这些女孩进行操控。例如,他会投资或赞助所谓的模特经纪公司,寻找来自东欧和南美国家梦想成为超级模特的年轻女孩,而他的女友兼合伙人则会提供情感支持。
- 为什么他要去千里之外的偏远岛屿进行娱乐,而不是待在美国本土的豪宅里,比如纽约或洛杉矶,哪里都可以,考虑到这两种方式的花费都很少?
我们先来回答第一个问题。马克思主义学者齐泽克(Slavoj Žižek: 斯洛文尼亚哲学家、文化评论家)曾提出淫秽凝聚力(Obscene Cohesion: 指任何看似高尚正义的权力组织内部,真正的凝聚力并非来自墙上展示的荣誉和规则,而是来自成员之间某种不能摆上台面、或非法、或违规的共同秘密)的概念。这意味着任何看似高尚正义的权力组织内部,真正的凝聚力并非来自墙上展示的荣誉和规则,而是来自成员之间某种不能摆上台面、或非法、或违规的共同秘密。中国人常说,最牢固的“铁哥们”关系是“一起扛过枪,一起下过乡,一起嫖过娼”。前两句容易理解:一起面对生死,一起吃苦受罪。但第三句似乎有些难以理解——“一起嫖过娼”?这显然是人品上的污点,但恰恰因为这种共同的污点,两人反而结成了更紧密的同盟,因为你掌握了我的弱点,我也掌握了你的弱点,无需担心互相背叛,大不了同归于尽。
这种“淫秽凝聚力”的例子,中国人最熟悉的有两个:
- 《水浒传》中,要求入伙的梁山好汉必须做一件类似的事情——杀一个路人。陈凯歌(Chen Kaige: 中国著名电影导演)的电影《霸王别姬》(Farewell My Concubine)中也有类似的情节。
- 官场中常见的腐败(Corruption: 指滥用公共权力谋取私利的行为)。例如,“你不贪,我怎么贪?我不贪,你怎么贪?你我都不贪,我们怎么升官?”
理解了这些,你就能明白爱泼斯坦为何不惜重金招募和推广未成年少女。因为如果只是普通女孩,这种淫秽凝聚力的力量是有限的,即使曝光,也只会被认为是卖淫,虽然有损名誉,但不是大问题。特朗普(Donald Trump: 美国前总统)以前也曾为性付费,无论是与妓女还是婚外情,他因此被弹劾或下台了吗?但未成年少女则完全不同,这是犯罪,尤其是如果你是名人。这相当于彻底将自己的弱点交给了对方。这样的关系怎能不牢靠?
那么,为什么非要去千里之外的荒岛?美国本土不是有很多地方可以买春吗?有些甚至合法。因为这些人都是美国的“大人物”。假设特朗普或马斯克如果心血来潮,想找点乐子,他们敢去拉斯维加斯吗?如果去了,被人认出来,他们会说:“特朗普先生,能给我签个名吗?我是你最大的粉丝,我投了你两次票,我稍后给你送些我穿过的内衣,我保证你会惊喜两次。”或者“马斯克先生,我的推特账号因为我乱喷被封了,你能帮我解封吗?或者给我打个折?”你看,这就是名人的麻烦。他们走到哪里都会被认出来,而且事后还要担心对方泄密,即使给钱封口,特朗普不就被那个承认婚外情的女人背叛了吗?即使女人不说什么,还有一堆媒体记者和狗仔队盯着,稍不留神就会身败身裂。
这种麻烦在中国是完全不存在的。在中国,只有那些小明星、没权没势的才会被媒体曝光。如果你是官员,哪怕只是个县长、镇长,出去嫖娼,甚至嫖未成年人,除非你自己已经落马被抓,否则没有任何媒体敢报道,也没有任何警察敢解救你。你不仅在自己的管辖范围内拥有绝对权力,即使你去外地惹事,当地官员也会帮你掩盖,以维护党和国家的尊严。不信你去查查,中国媒体偶尔也会曝光涉黄新闻,但哪一个是在官员本人落马前曝光的?不都是在他们被证实逮捕后才挖出来的吗?
所以,从做坏事的角度来看,美国的这些富人其实相当可怜。你再有钱、地位再高,在美国也时刻被人盯着。只有乘坐私人飞机,避开所有媒体记者、邻居和路人,躲到千里之外、连鬼都找不到的荒岛上,才能拥有一些隐私来做坏事。这就是我之前在推特上说的:为什么爱泼斯坦如此出名?因为他的客户都是国家顶尖人物。那么,为什么这些顶尖人物如此依赖爱泼斯坦?因为他提供的服务在美国或西方世界极其稀缺。为什么中国出不了爱泼斯坦?因为太普遍了。任何一个搞所谓“商务社交”的人,问你“要不要去会所、KTV”,都能提供全套服务。别说马斯克,连村长的儿子随便在夜总会混混都能发财,甚至包房经理的业务提成都能带来收入。别说商务KTV了,我的YouTube视频评论区不是经常有人发垃圾信息和伴游服务信息吗?如果你好奇,给这个“小姐”发个信息问问:“有没有年轻的?”百分之百有。这就是国情差异。这就像在日本,一群人挪用几万人民币的竞选资金吃喝玩乐就能上头条,然后一群人跑到中国来批评日本腐败,说日本完蛋了,民主制度完蛋了。
Original English Source
using sex as a lubricant in social circles is actually quite common. for example, when a group of men are women go out for karaoke, don't they usually invite a members of the opposite sex? you really see all male or all female groups, right? for example, like this, let's kill a few people, let's kill you. you o of course, what absteine provided was far more than just introducing a few girls. it was a whole set of social solutions. some might say, isn't it just providing sexual services, sexual entertainment? this kind of thing is rampant in china, where in the country doesn't have a handed dance troopp. quote, what's so special about that? a social soluif, you put it that way. maybe. so 对对, but the little saint james island thing is actually quite rare in the united states. first, let me ask you two questions. first, why did upstein go to such links to include underage girls? among the girls, he provided for sexual entertainment from the information currently disclosed, the service of providing undergrage girls was initially proposed by abstein himself, not by the so called these girts, you should know that the united states is it like china, where you can just find ganggers ers human traffickers to kidnap in a bunch of girls chain them up and lock them in a basement. according to the currently disclosed information, he mainly control these girls using financial entire in psychological manipulation, not diredireviviolfor for examhe. he send people to scouout ggirls imimpovershfamilies are those whose parents were drug adticicand in in need money, then provide financial assistance and subsequently manipulate these girls. for example, he would would invein in our sponors or called modeling agencies, finding youngirls from eastern europeans from south american countries who dreamed of becoming supermodels, and his girl friend in partner would provide emotional support. secondly, why did he go to a remote island thousands of miles away to conduct his entertainment instead of staying in a mention in the US mainland, such as in new yorker, less angeles anywhere would be fine, considering both methods caused very little money. let's answer the first question. first, the marxist scholar slavoj žižek once proposed the concept of obscene cohesion, meaning that the true cohese of force within any seemingly noble and righteous power organization does not come from the honners and rules displayed on the walls, but rather from a certain shared secret among members that cannot be brought to the surface, but rather be illegal or against regulations. chinese people often say that the strongest meltbones are formed by fighting together in battle, sharing hardships to gether and horing together. the first two are easy to understand facing life and death together and sharing hardships together. but the third one seems a bit difficult to understand horing together. this is clearly a stain on one's character, but precisely, because this shared stain, the two conform a closer alliance, because you have my weakness, and i have yours. there's no need to worry about mutual betrayal. we'll die together if necessary. there are two examples of this kind of obsemed solidarity that are most familiar to chinese people. one is the requirement in the water lgin people. those those inining lengshoon to commit a similar at killing a random passerby before were being admitted chenkaige's film, farewell my concubine, also depics this. secondly, there's the common corruption in officialdom. for example, if you don't take bribes, how can i if i don't take bribes, how can you if you and i don't take bribes, how can we get promoted? quote understanding these points, you can understand why epstin spend heavily on recruiting and promoting underage girls. because if they were just ordinary girls, the power of this kind of abscine solidarity would be limited, even if exposed, it would only be considered prostitution, which, while damaging to reputation, wouldn't be a major problem. trump previously paid for sex, whether with prostitutes or extrameital affairs, did you get impeach or step down because of it with impage girls are completely different. this is a crime, especially if you're a celebrity. this is equivalent to completely handing over your weaknesses to each other. how could relationship should not be reliable? why did you have to go to a deserted island thousands of miles away? aren't there are plenty of places to buy sex in the US mainland, some are even legal, because these people are all big figures in the united states. let's assume that if trumer mosque were feeling arrogant and wanted to have some fun, would they dare to go to loss vegas if they did? and someone recognized them? would they say mister trump, could you give me an autograph? i'm your biggest fan, i voted for you twice, and i'll get you some ammy emotional. underwhere later, i guarantee you'be surprised twice or mister ask my twitter account was suspended because i was trolling. could you help me on blocket or give you a discount? quote? see, that's the trouble with celebrities. they get recognized wherever they go, and they have to worry about the other person blabbing afterwards, even if they pay them off, didn't trump get betrayed by that women who admitted to the affair? and even if the woman of media say anything, there will still be a bunch of media reporters and poparparozi watching, and they could be ruined if they're not careful. this kind of trouble is completely nonexistent in china in china. only small powless celebrities get exexposed by media. if you're official even just a county head or a town mayor going out to buy a prostitute, even a minor, unless you yourself are fallen from power and been arrested. no media outlet would dare to reported, and no police officer would dare to rescue you not only have absolute power in your own jurisdiction, but even if you go to another area and cause trouble, the local officials will help you cover it up to maintain the dignity of the party in the country. don't believe me me about it. it. chinese media occasionally exposed news involving prostitution, but which ones were exposed before the officials themselves were taken down. weren't, they all duve up after they were already confirmed to be arrested. so from the perspective of doing bad things, these wealthy people in the united states are actually quite pitiful. no matter how rich you are or how higher status you're constantly being watched in the united states, only by taking a private jeet to avoid all the media reporters, nose neighghbors and passes by and hiding on a remote island where even ghosts can't be found. can you have some semples of privacy to do bad things? this is what i said on twitter before why se epsteins so famous, because his clients are famous for being the top figures in the country. so why are these top figures so dependent on epstein because the services he provides our extremely scarce in the united states or in the western world. why can't china produce an upstein because it's too common place any person who engages in so called business networking and ask you if you want to go to a clubor or karaaoke bar can provide a full range of services. don't even mention youyou on musk, even the sun of a village head can make a fortune just by hanging out in a nighkler for while even even the business part of a private room manager will bring an income. don't even talk about business karaoke. aren't there often people posting spam and escorts service information in the common section to my youtube videos? if you're curious, send a message to this aussie and ask, do you have any young girone one percent? yes, this is the difference in national conditions. this is like in japan, where a group of people misappropriating tens of thousands of rmb in campaign funds for eating drinincan wake headlines, and then a bunch of people come running to china to criticize japan for corruption, saying the japan is doomed in its democrat systems. finished, 你看.
案件曝光与司法困境:认罪协商的机制
回到爱泼斯坦案的一些细节,包括它如何被曝光。2005年,一名女子联系警方,称她14岁的女儿被一个稍大的女孩带到爱泼斯坦的住处,在收到300美元后为他进行了脱衣舞表演和按摩。由于涉及未成年人,警方随后对爱泼斯坦进行了长达11个月的卧底调查,并搜查了他的住所。联邦调查局(FBI: 美国联邦政府的主要调查机构)也介入了。根据对五名女孩的调查、十七份宣誓证词,以及在爱泼斯坦垃圾桶中发现的高中成绩单和女孩照片,案件揭示了一些女孩在与他发生关系时仍是高中生。这些材料彻底推翻了爱泼斯坦声称“不知道她们是未成年人”的辩护。随后,《迈阿密先驱报》(Miami Herald)和《国际商业时报》(International Business Times)等数十家媒体发起了大规模的攻击,私人报道和证词导致包括英国安德鲁王子(Prince Andrew: 英国王室成员)、美国前总统比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)和比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates: 微软创始人)在内的多位知名人士卷入其中。这引发了公众的强烈抗议。
然而,情况随后发生了变化。2008年6月,爱泼斯坦对针对他的指控认罪,包括一项“招揽卖淫”和一项“招揽未成年人卖淫”。作为交换,检察官不再追究他的联邦指控,他仅被判处18个月监禁。有人可能会问,爱泼斯坦犯下这么多罪行,怎么可能只通过认罪协议就得到如此轻的惩罚?
让我简单解释一下。爱泼斯坦实际上利用了美国法律体系中的一个漏洞,称为认罪协商机制(Plea Bargaining Mechanism: 检察官与被告之间达成协议,被告承认部分或全部罪行以换取较轻的刑罚)。是的,你没听错,美国法院可以讨价还价。简单来说,美国90%以上的刑事案件都是通过认罪协商或认罪解决的,甚至从未进入陪审团审判。基本上,检察官和被告律师坐下来谈,如果被告确实有罪,且无罪释放的可能性很小,但为了节省大家的时间,你可以承认部分指控,我们撤销部分指控,你获得较轻的刑罚,从而节省政府的司法资源。如果达成协议,双方就签署协议。
这个制度的初衷非常实际——为了防止司法系统崩溃。美国法律体系对证据的要求非常严格,你不能仅仅依靠口供或“恢复的记忆”来定罪。这并非不可能,但相对罕见。在爱泼斯坦案中,你不能仅仅说“我与这个有权有势的人发生过关系”,就指望他们被逮捕和定罪。必须有确凿的证据,例如提取的DNA、事发的确切时间、事件发生时你确实未满18岁等。这就是为什么强奸案(Rape Case: 指未经同意的性行为犯罪)如此难以起诉,因为除非施暴者当场被抓,或者女孩秘密藏起避孕套和精液,并在第二天悄悄去警察局报案,否则案件很难成立。
爱泼斯坦于2005年被捕,而大多数涉及那些权贵人物的指控都发生在1990年代。当时技术不像今天这么先进,女孩们也无法立即保存证据,这使得大多数被指控者难以被定罪。这也是为什么爱泼斯坦的岛屿让那些权贵人物感到一种隐私感。在这种情况下,如果检方继续调查,最大的可能性是他们会花费大量人力和资源,但最终未能收集到足够的证据来定罪那些权贵人物。不如认罪,接受较轻的刑罚。
需要指出的是,爱泼斯坦本人之所以认罪,是因为2005年起诉他的14岁女孩在事发三天后报案,证据相对确凿。如果时间间隔太长,很可能也无法定罪他。不幸的是,这位14岁女孩提供的事件地点并非萝莉岛,而是爱泼斯坦在棕榈滩的豪宅,她的指控也不包括上述任何权贵客户,而仅限于爱泼斯坦本人。至于对那些权贵人物的绝大多数指控,只有间接证据,例如警方从爱泼斯坦家中没收的照片、爱泼斯坦与那些人之间的电子邮件往来记录,以及著名的“小黑本”(Little Black Book: 爱泼斯坦的通讯录,记录了数千名世界各地的商业和政治人物的联系方式),而这些显然远不足以定罪。
Original English Source
going back to some details of the abstein case, including how it was exposed in two thousand five, a woman contacted to ford, a police, saying that her fourteen old prostitutive daughter was taken to esteen's place by slightly older girl and performed stripping in massage for him after receiving three hundred dollars because it involved a minor. the police subsequently conducted in eleven month undundercored investigation of abstein in search his residents afterward, the fbi also got involved based on investigations of five girls and seventeams swarnn testimonies as well as high school transcripts and photos of girls found in esteens trash can. it was revealed that some of the girl those were still high school students when they had relations with him. these materials completely overturned absteen's defence that he didn't know. they were minors, then dozens of media outlets, including the miami herald and the international business times, launched a massive attack. inclualprinate reports ts tetemonmones led to ininvolvement several al profilile figures, including prince andrew of the uk, former us president bill clinton and bill gates. this sparked a public outcry 对不对? but then the situation change in june two thousand eight, epstein pleaded guilty to the charges against him, including one count of soliciting prostitution, and one count of soliciting prostitution from a minor. this was in exchange for prosecutors not pursuing federal charges against him in a sentence of only eighteen months in prison. some might wonder how could abstein after coming so many offences get such a light punishment with just a plea deal? let me explain briefly him. abstein actually exploited a look pole in the american legal system called the plea bargaining mechanism. yes, you heard that right? american courts can bargain simply put over ninety percent of criminal cases in the us are resolve through plea, bargaining or pleading. and never even reach a jury trial. basically, the prosecutor and the defendants lawyer sit down in top the oriknows ws guilty ty of, and a ququiitle is unlikely. but to save everyone time, you to aded guilty to some charges to drop some charges, and you get a lighter sentence, saving the government judicial resources. if a deal is reached, we sign in agreement. the original intention behind this system is very practical to prevent the collapse of the judicial system. the american legal system has very strict requirements for evidence. you can't just rely on a confession or recovered memories to secure a conviction. it's not impossible, but it's relatively rare. in empsteen's case. you can't just say i had a relationship with this wealthy and powerful person and expect them to be arrested in convicted. there must be concrete evidence, such as extrted, ted, mman, dda and proproof the exacact time incident occurred and that you were indeed, under eighteen at the time. this is why rape is so difficult to prosecute because unless the perpetrator is caught in the act or the girlsecretly hiit condoms in semon. inquietly went to the police station the next day to report the crime. the case is very difficult to make. estein was arrested in in thousand thousand five, and most of the accusations involving those powerful figures occurred in the ninenineteen nineties at that time, technology wasn't as advanced as it is today, and the girls were unable to preserve evidence immediately, making it difficult to convict. most of the accused. this is also why epsteen's island made those powerful figures feel a sense of privacy in this situation ation. if the prosecution continue the investigation, the greatest possibility was that they would spend a huge amount of manpower. and resources, but ultimately fail togather enough evidence to convict those powerful figures it. it was better to plead guilty and accept a lighter sentence. it should be pointed out that the reason abstein himself pleaded guilty was because the fourteen old girls who suit him in two thousand five reported the case three days after the incident, and the evidence was relatively solid. if the time ellapse was too long, it would likely be impossible to convict him. unfortunately, the location of the incident provided by this fourteen year old girl was not the little saint james island, but absteenes mention in pomb beach per accusation did not include any of the powerful clients mentioned above, but was limited to abstein himself. as for the vast majority of accusation against those powerfifires res, there is only indirect evidence, for example, photos conficated by the police from estinenhome home repords of emails exchange between empinin. in those people, the famous little black book, which contained the contact information of thousands of business and political figures around the world, and this is clearly far from enough to secure a conviction.
“萝莉岛名单”的真相:谣言与信息密度
现在我们来到大家最关心的问题:网上广为流传的所谓“名人名单”上,哪些人是真正参与了的?哪些是存疑的?哪些又是纯属捏造的?我们逐一讨论。
首先,我澄清两点:
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所谓“萝莉岛名单”是如何产生的? 请注意,以下信息是经过官方核实和媒体报道的准确信息,而非仅仅是谣言。
- 首先,政府从未公布过任何官方的“萝莉岛客户名单”,司法部也从未发布过任何名为“客户名单”、“性贩卖名单”或“VIP客户名单”的文件。那些让你热血沸腾、看似包罗万象的名单,基本上都是过去几年里网民、自媒体和阴谋论者拼凑、夸大其词的“大杂烩”。
- 那么,这些名单是如何产生的呢?大致有三个来源:
- 所谓的“小黑本”:这是警方从爱泼斯坦家中搜出的通讯录,包含大约1500到2000个姓名和电话号码,其中包括许多名人、前总统、亿万富翁、科学家、明星和政客。但请注意,这只是一个通讯录,没有任何标记表明哪些VIP客户访问了岛屿或收受了金钱。换句话说,它与你想象中的“记录了接受未成年人性服务的官员名单”完全不同。通讯录有时可能会有“宝贝”或“前男友”之类的备注,但这份通讯录没有任何此类标记。请记住,爱泼斯坦是一个专业的社交攀附者(Social Climber: 指通过社交手段努力提升自己社会地位的人)。他的工作就是与权贵建立关系。他几乎记录了他认识的、想认识的、被介绍给他的、参加过他派对的或给他捐过钱的每一个人。名单上很多人他可能甚至从未见过。这就是为什么名单上会出现这么多女明星。这份名单的实际关联性可能不到5%。
- 警方查获的爱泼斯坦私人飞机飞行记录:这份记录详细列出了乘客姓名、起飞时间、出发地和目的地。这份名单也包括许多名人。然而,这份名单也有问题:乘坐他的飞机不代表去了萝莉岛,即使去了岛上,也不代表参与了性派对。
- 诉讼文件中提到的人名:这份名单也非常不可靠,因为即使是电子邮件中提到的人名,以及爱泼斯坦在律师询问受害者时随口提到的名人姓名,也与所谓的性侵案无关。例如,爱泼斯坦案中的一位女性证人肖博格(Shobhag)在2016年的法庭证词中明确提到,爱泼斯坦特别喜欢炫耀他与许多名人的关系。例如,他接电话时,经常会说电话那头是莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥(Leonardo DiCaprio: 美国著名演员)、布鲁斯·威利斯(Bruce Willis: 美国著名演员)或凯特·布兰切特(Cate Blanchett: 澳大利亚著名演员)。她在那里工作期间,从未真正见过这些名人,爱泼斯坦只是在挂断电话后吹嘘一番。所以,谁知道是不是真的呢?但仅仅因为这些名字在审判中被提及,就被莫名其妙地加入了名单。
- 第四点也是最恶劣的一点,纯属捏造:许多人会将自己不喜欢或与爱泼斯坦毫无关系的明星名字添加到网上名单中,与合法名字混淆。将这四点结合起来,就形成了我们现在看到的日益膨胀的名单,真相完全被淹没在谣言的海洋中,真假难辨。
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最近公布的300万页文件到底包含了什么? 很多人一听到300万页就觉得很恐怖,心想这得有多少受害者,美国到底有多黑暗。这是中文简中世界常见的叙事,它利用了普通人没有时间去核实一切的事实。但如果你仔细查看,你会发现这些所谓的300万页文件的信息密度(Information Density: 指单位信息量中包含的实际有用信息的多少)其实非常低。
- 简单来说,这些材料主要分为三类:
- A类:可信度极高的材料,例如官方记录、法律文件和物证。例如,前面提到的飞行记录就是最坚实、不可更改的证据。另一个例子是警方2005年从他家中查获的各种文件,包括各种身份材料、电脑硬盘、照片和监控摄像头布局图。还有爱泼斯坦及他人的银行对账单和财务协议,例如与维多利亚的秘密(Victoria's Secret: 美国著名内衣品牌)老板的交易等。这部分占比最小,但最具实质性。
- B类:可信度中等的材料,包括涉案人员的宣誓证词和往来邮件。最近被广泛讨论的邮件记录大多属于这一类。这部分占比也不高。
- C类:可信度最低的材料,包括匿名举报和热线电话。爱泼斯坦案爆发后,FBI公布了一个热线电话,向公众征集信息。他们接到了大量普通公民的电话,其中很多人都发表了不相关的言论,例如“我的邻居看起来像爱泼斯坦”或“我怀疑我同学前男友的邻居去了萝莉岛”。我们今天提到的300万份文件,绝大多数都属于第三类。
- 简单来说,这些材料主要分为三类:
Original English Source
now we come to the part that everyone is most concerned about which people on the widely circulated online list of so called celebrities actually participated, which ones are questionable, and which ones are clerely fabricated. let's discuss them one by one leme clarify two things. first, the first is how that so called loleda island list, which contains thousands of people and seems to include half of the western upper class, came about note that the following information is accurate information verified by official sources and reported by the media, not mere rumors. first of all, there is no official list of all little saint james island clients published by the government, and the department of justice has never released anything called the client list, a sex trafficking list or avip client list. those list that make your blood boil list that seemingly include everyone are basically a hodgepodge of information cobled together and exaggerated by netiises self media accounts and conspiracy theorists over the past few lihow. were they created there, roughly three sources. first, there's the so called black book, which is the contact list. the police found from epten's home containing approximately fifteen hundred to two thousand names and phone numbers, including many celebrities, former presidents, billionairres scientists, stars and politicians. but node, this is just a contact list. there are no markings indicating that any vip clients visited the island or receive money. in other words, it's completely different from what you might imagine a list of high ranking officials who received sexual services from miners and were recorded a phones. contact list might sometimes include entries like baby or x boyfriend, but this contact list doesn't have any such markings. keep in mind that estein was a professional social climber. his job was to cultivate relationships with the powerful and wealthy. he recorded almost everyone. he knew wanted to know, was introduced to attended his parties or donated money to him. he probably never even met many of the people on the list. this is why so many female celebrities appear on the list. the actual relevance of this list is probably less than five percent. secondly, there are the flight logs from aplities teams private jeet that the police seized, which detailed names of passengers, departure times origins and destations ations list also includes many celebrities. however, this list also also has problem fying ying on his plane. esn't mean an went to the little saint james island. and even if you went to the island, it doesn't mean you participated in an orgy. thirdly, there are the people mentioned in the litigation documents. this list is also very unreliable because even if des names mentioned in emails as well as names of celebrities that epsteine casually mentioned when his lawyquesquestion icictims, but this is unrelated to the alleged sexual assaululcase. for example, one female witness in the epin in ase es named shobhag, he explicitly mentioned in his twenty sixteen court testimony that epstein particularly like to show off his connections with many celebrities. for example, when he answer the phone, he would often say that the person on the other end was leanardo to caabrio bruce willous or kate blenched. he never actually saw these celebrities while working there, absteine would only boast about them after hanging up the phone. so who knows if it was true? but simply because these names were mentioned during the trial, they were inexplicitably added to the list. the fourth, in most aggreegeous point is pure fabrication. many people would add the names of celebrities they dislike, or those who have nothing to do with abstein to the online list, mixing them with legitimate names. combining these four points results in the increasingly blooated list, we see now with the truth, completely buried in a sea of rumors, making it difficult to distinguish fact from fiction. secondly, what exactly do those three million pages of documents that have been release contained many people here, three million pages that think it's terrifying, wondering how many victims there must be and how dark america is. this is a common narrative used in the simplify chinese speaking world. it praise on the fact that most ordinary people don't have the time to verify everything. but if you look closely, you'll find the information density of these so called three million pages of documents is actually very low. simply put, these materials are mainly divided into three categies first category, a which includes highly credible materials, such as official records, legal recorments and physical evidence. for example, the flight loggs mentioned earlier are the most solid and unchangeable evidence. another example is the various documents seas by the police from his home in two thousand and five incluvvarious ias materials, computer hard, drives photos in surveillance, camera layouts, then there are escenes and others bank statements and financial agreements such as transactions with the victorious secret owner. it's eta a this part accounts for the smalst st proportion, but is the most substantive. secondly, there is category b, which includes materials with moderate credibility, including swren temonmonies of those involved in correspondence emails, the email records that have been discussed extensively recently mostly belong to this category. this part does not account for a high proportion either. finally, there is category sea, which has the lowest credibility, including one, including anonymous reports and hot line calls. after the absteined case broke, the fbi released a hot line number to solicit information from the public. they received a large number of calls from ordinary citizens, many of whom made a relevant statement, such as my neighbor, looks like stetime, or i suspect my classmax x boyfrien's neighbor went a little same james island, most of the three million documents we mentioned today fall into the third category.
名人涉案辨析:安德鲁王子、克林顿与比尔·盖茨
背景信息已介绍完毕。现在我们来谈谈重点:那些备受关注的名人中,哪些有确凿证据?哪些是基于谣言?哪些又是纯属无辜被牵连的?
首先是安德鲁王子(Prince Andrew: 英国王室成员,因爱泼斯坦案被剥夺王室头衔),这位前英国王子多次被指控。指控他的女孩名叫弗吉尼亚·朱弗尔(Virginia Giuffre: 爱泼斯坦案中的核心受害者和证人)。请记住这个名字,她将在后面多次出现。弗吉尼亚出生于1983年8月。她还拥有自己与安德鲁王子和吉斯莱恩·麦克斯韦尔(Ghislaine Maxwell: 爱泼斯坦的长期女友和同谋)的合影。根据她的证词,她于2001年3月左右首次由爱泼斯坦的女友兼合伙人麦克斯韦尔介绍给安德鲁王子。会面地点在伦敦,根据时间线,当时她17岁。她在多次公开采访、证词和宣誓声明中强调了这一点,称他们第一次见到安德鲁王子时,安德鲁甚至和她玩了一个“猜年龄”的游戏,并立即猜出她17岁,说“我的女儿只比你小一点”。弗吉尼亚还描述安德鲁王子“足够友好,但仍然傲慢,认为与她发生性关系是他的与生俱来的权利”。最终,在2022年,弗吉尼亚和安德鲁王子达成了庭外和解,后者支付了数百万美元赔偿,并随后失去了王室头衔。这意味着,尽管证据并非决定性的,但这相当于变相认罪(De Facto Admission of Guilt: 指尽管没有明确承认罪行,但通过行为或协议间接承认了责任)。
接下来是美国前总统比尔·克林顿。由于莫妮卡·莱温斯基丑闻(Monica Lewinsky Scandal: 1990年代美国总统比尔·克林顿与白宫实习生莫妮卡·莱温斯基的性丑闻),克林顿被认为是臭名昭著的花花公子(Womanizer: 指行为不检、玩弄女性的男人)。因此,当爱泼斯坦被曝光并提到他的名字时,大多数人立即认为他也是个恋童癖,开玩笑说“这符合他的名声”。但我不得不说,克林顿在此事中的嫌疑可能并非那么确凿。
首先,司法部公布的飞行记录显示,克林顿乘坐爱泼斯坦的私人飞机26次。然而,所有这些行程都发生在2002年至2003年,即他卸任总统之后。公开报道表明,这些行程是为了推广克林顿基金会(Clinton Foundation: 由比尔·克林顿创立的慈善组织)的公共和慈善活动,而非私人旅行。值得注意的是,这26次行程实际上指的是26个航段,一次长途旅行通常包括多个航段。例如,2002年9月的非洲之行涉及从美国飞往达喀尔,然后前往尼日利亚、卢旺达、莫桑比克、南非和英国,总共11个航段。所以,26次行程看似很多,但实际上只相当于四次主要旅行。此外,这26个航段的目的地都没有萝莉岛。
有人可能会问,既然如此,他为什么还要乘坐爱泼斯坦的私人飞机?
- 首先,爱泼斯坦是克林顿基金会的捐助者,尽管捐款金额不大,只有2.5万美元。然而,使用私人飞机也常被视为一种捐赠形式。
- 其次,众所周知,美国总统在任期间乘坐“空军一号”(Air Force One: 美国总统的专机)。但卸任后呢?没有专用飞机,政府要求前总统仍需保持严格安保。这意味着他们要么乘坐朋友的私人飞机,要么乘坐商业航班,为安保人员购买单独的机票。由于后者不方便且安全性较低,前总统,尤其是在公务旅行期间,经常依赖富豪朋友提供私人飞机出行。
那么,他有没有可能乘坐别人的私人飞机去了萝莉岛呢?有可能,但这里有两个问题:
- 首先,克林顿无论走到哪里,即使是私人旅行,都会受到白宫的终身安保保护,安保人员24小时随行。这意味着如果他去了萝莉岛,安保人员会知道。但到目前为止,没有前安保人员向媒体透露过这一信息。
- 其次,前面提到的弗吉尼亚·朱弗尔(Virginia Giuffre),她与安德鲁王子只有短暂接触,她在2011年接受英国《星期日邮报》(British Sunday Mail)采访时提到,她在2001年或2002年在爱泼斯坦的岛上远远地看到了克林顿。她问爱泼斯坦克林顿在那里做什么,后者只回答说克林顿欠他一个人情,但没有要求她全程陪同克林顿。她也没有看到克林顿与任何女孩互动。此外,这些说法完全基于朱弗尔的口头证词(Oral Testimony: 在法庭或其他正式场合口头作出的证词),没有任何照片等物证。这意味着,至少在爱泼斯坦案中,目前没有证据证明克林顿有任何不当行为。
接着是比尔·盖茨。这位前世界首富几乎是简中互联网上因爱泼斯坦案被批评最严重的人,但我必须说,他参与爱泼斯坦岛事件的可能性基本为零。为什么?因为盖茨只在爱泼斯坦的私人飞机飞行记录中出现过一次,是在2013年3月1日,从新泽西飞往佛罗里达。这距离爱泼斯坦2005年因萝莉岛事件被警方调查并在2008年被判刑已经过去了多年。此外,根据他们的邮件记录,两人首次见面是在2011年1月31日,在爱泼斯坦位于曼哈顿的豪宅,讨论的是与盖茨基金会(Gates Foundation: 由比尔·盖茨和梅琳达·盖茨创立的慈善基金会)相关的事宜。2014年,盖茨意识到爱泼斯坦的名声太差,可能会拖累自己,于是选择断绝关系。在此之前,两人从未有过任何互动,没有邮件往来,没有合影,也没有媒体报道过任何私人牵连。盖茨的私生活可能确实有一些可疑之处,但要说他参与了爱泼斯坦岛的活动,对他来说确实不公平。
Original English Source
okay, background information is complete. now let's get to the main point, which of those high profile names have concrete evidence against them, which are based on rumors and which are perely innocent and dragged into the case. first is prince andrew, the forforbrititiprprinwho has has been cused mumultiple times. the girl who accuhim is virginia. giuffre remember this name as she will appear multiple times later, virginia was born in august, one thousand and eighty three. she also has photos of herself with andrew and maxwell. according to her testimony, he was first introduced andrew by estinggirlfriend and partner maxwell around march two thousand one. the meeting took place in london and based on the timine, he was seventeen years old at the time. 我有不不的. 是的, she emphasized this point in multiple public interviews, testimonies and swren statements saying that when they first met andrew, even played an age game with her, and immediately guess she was seventeen saying, my daughter is only a little younger than you. virginia also described. andrew is friendly enough, but still arrogant believing that having sexual relations with her was his birth thright ultimately in twenty twenty two virginia and prince. andrew reached out of court settlement with a latter paying millions of dollars in compensation in subsequently losing his royal title. this means that although the evidence wasn't conclusive, it's equivalent u. an admission of guilt next, this former us president bill clinton, because the monica lewinsky scandal clinton is considered a notorious womanizer. so when absteine was exposed in his name was mentioned, most people immediately assumed he was a pedophile. jokingly saying, that's his reputation, but i have to say clinton suspicion in this matter might not be that solid first flight loggs released by the department of justice show that clinton took esteems private jeet twenty six times. however, all these trips took place between two thousand and two and two thousand free. after left, the presidency, public reports indicate that these trips were for public and charitable activities to promote the clinton foundation, not private travel. it's worth noting that these twenty six trips actually referred to twenty six flight legs, a long trip often includes multiple legs. for example, africa trip in september, two thousand two involved flying from the us to dakar then to nigeria then rwanda mozambique, south africa and the uk eleven legs in total. so twenty six trips might seem like a lot, but it actually amounts only four major trips. further more. none of the destinations for these twenty six legs were a little saint james island. some might ask, if that's the case, why did he use absteen's private jet? first? stly epinine was a donor to the clinton foundation, although donation was not large, only twenty five thousand dollars. however, using a private jet is also often consider a form of donation. secondly, everyone knows that the us president travels on air force one while in office. but what about after leaving office without a dedicated plane, the government requires former presidents to still maintain strict security. this means they either travel on a friends, private jet or take commercial flights buying separate tickets for security personnel since the latter is inconvenient and less secure. former presidents, especially during official, trips often rely on wealthy friends for private jet travel. is it possible that he travelled to little same james island on someone else's private jeet or yet it's possible, but there are two problems here. first, clinton receives lifelong security protection from the white house wherever he goes, even on private trips security personneler with him twenty four hours a day. this means that if he went a little same james island, the security personnel would know. but so far, no former security personnel has come forward to the media to reveal this information. next, the aforementioned virginia giuffre who only had a brief encounter with prince andrew mentioned in an interview with the british sunday mail in twenty eleven that she saw clinton from a distance on epinin's island in two thousand one or two thousand two. she asked abstein what clinton was doing there, and the latter only replied that he owed him a favor, but did not ask her to accompany clinton throughout the entire process. she did not see clinton interacting with any girls. furthermore, these claims are entirely based on giuffre's oral testimony without any physical evidence such as photos. this means that at least in the upstein case, there is currently no evidence to prove the clinton engaged in any improper behavior. then there's bill gates. this former richest man in the world is almost the most heavily criticized person on the simplified chinese internet because of the epinin island incident, but i must say that the possibility of him participying in the esteine island incident is basically zero. why? because gates only appeared on empten's private plane log once on march first twenty thirteen, flying from new jersey to florida. this was years after abstein was investigated by the police in two thousand five for the estein island incident and sentenced in two thousand eight. furthermore, according to their email records, the two only met for the first time on january thirty first toeleven, and epsten's mentioned in manhattan due the matters related to the gate's foundation in twenty fourteen. gates realized that epsten's reputation was too bad in my dragon down, so he chose to severatities before that the two had never had any interaction, no email exchanges, no photos together, and no media reports about any private involvement. gates 's private life may indeed have some questionable aspects, but to say that he participated in the abstein island activities is truly unfair to him.
霍金与杰克逊:谣言的传播与“以貌取人”的谬误
接下来是更离奇的斯蒂芬·霍金和迈克尔·杰克逊(Michael Jackson: 美国著名歌手)。关于霍金,这又是简中互联网上无脑批判的另一个例子。许多人看到这张照片后惊呼,连霍金都“沦陷”了。然而,事实是这张照片拍摄于2006年3月,当时他受邀参加了爱泼斯坦赞助的一个关于量子引力(Quantum Gravity: 物理学理论,旨在统一量子力学和广义相对论)的科学研讨会。媒体也曾公开报道,爱泼斯坦经常赞助学术活动,以提升自己的形象和扩大人脉。这次会议在萝莉岛附近的一个名为圣托马斯岛(Saint Thomas Island: 维尔京群岛中的一个岛屿)举行,而且这个岛屿在会议期间并不属于爱泼斯坦。会议休息期间,爱泼斯坦邀请包括霍金在内的许多科学家,短暂参观了他的萝莉岛,享用了一顿烧烤晚餐,之后就拍下了这张照片。
照片中的三位男士,除了霍金,后排的男士是普林斯顿大学的理论物理学家、2004年诺贝尔物理学奖得主大卫·格罗斯(David Gross: 美国理论物理学家,因发现强相互作用理论中的渐近自由而获诺贝尔奖)。前排的男士也是一位重量级人物,名叫基普·索恩(Kip Thorne: 美国理论物理学家,霍金的同事和朋友,2017年诺贝尔物理学奖得主),他是霍金的同事和朋友,2017年诺贝尔物理学奖得主。右下角的女士是丽莎·兰德尔(Lisa Randall: 美国理论物理学家,哈佛大学教授,当代顶尖物理学家之一),也是哈佛大学的理论物理学家,当代顶尖物理学家之一。至于霍金旁边的女士,目前没有明确信息,她很可能是霍金的私人看护。这张照片的险恶之处(Insidious Nature: 指事物表面无害,实则暗藏危害或恶意)在于,它某种程度上利用了人们的刻板印象,让他们认为一个稍微有点姿色的女性,很可能是爱泼斯坦的性伴侣。殊不知,顶尖物理学家中也有美女。
有人可能会问,为什么爱泼斯坦不把研讨会办在自己的岛上,这样更方便,反而要去别人的地盘?看了这张图你就明白了。这个32平方公里的岛屿是圣托马斯岛,会议在那里举行。而萝莉岛,则是它旁边的小点。是的,你没看错,世界闻名的萝莉岛面积只有0.28平方公里,岛上所有建筑加起来的总建筑面积也只有两三千平方米。这在中国人看来可能不小,但要举办大型活动,远远不够。简而言之,一个只有两三千平方米的小度假村,主建筑面积只有七百多平方米,要同时容纳那么多人上岛?这次研讨会到底邀请了多少人?来自世界各地的20多位顶尖物理学家,即使加上随行人员,也至少有四五十人。考虑到之前曾曝光过萝莉岛的模式通常是“一男多女”(One-on-Many: 指一个男性客户同时与多名女性发生关系),那将需要数百人。在北美住过大房子的人可以评估一下,如果你家房子已经七八百平方米,能容纳一百多人进行性派对吗?难道都要挤在后院?除非你像爱泼斯坦那样,每次只带七八个人分批上岛。
更重要的是,这次活动的组织者和参与者劳伦斯·克劳斯教授(Lawrence Krauss: 美国理论物理学家和宇宙学家)大方地在他的博客上分享了这张照片,没有任何遮掩的意图。很难想象他会如何向这几十位世界知名科学家介绍这次活动:“先生们、女士们,下周我们将去加勒比海的一个小岛讨论引力波问题。会议结束后,由于场地有限,我们组织了集体活动,按照组织者安排的姓名首字母顺序分批进入,老弱病残优先,第一批是下一批……”试图让所有人都参与,是这样吗?最后,到目前为止,前面提到的受害女孩中,没有任何人站出来指控霍金参与了任何不当活动。霍金的名字也不在爱泼斯坦的“小黑本”——通讯录中。所以霍金参与了多少,以及他是否被陷害,大家可以自行判断。
这里顺便提一下,关于霍金的谣言中,有一张广为流传的图片是这样的: “这是什么意思?你是说霍金也经常去岛上寻欢作乐吗?” “是的,吉弗尔。爱泼斯坦喜欢邀请知识分子上岛,奖励他们为人类做出的杰出贡献,以及其他一些更黑暗的原因。” “吉弗尔有没有跟你谈过霍金的喜好?” “是的,他喜欢看裸体小猪在一块巨大的黑板上解复杂的方程式。” 这段内容本身就非常荒谬(Absurd: 指不合情理、荒唐可笑),显然是戏谑性(Theatrical: 指具有戏剧性、表演性或夸张的特点)的,并非严肃或正式的言论,尤其是最后一句,明显是在嘲讽爱泼斯坦的身体残疾和无法站立。事实上,你在任何官方公布的文件中都找不到这张图片。从格式上看,它既不是邮件记录,也不是正式声明,缺乏说话者姓名、时间和地点。它最初是一张上传到推特的讽刺图片(Critical Image: 旨在通过讽刺或批判来表达观点或情绪的图片),后来在Reddit上作为令人震惊的讨论点传播,最终在简中世界流传,成为宣扬美国衰弱阴谋论的工具。
说到阴谋论,这引出了爱泼斯坦案中最常见的阴谋论思维模式之一——以貌取人(Association of Appearance with Criminal Activity as a Basis for Inference: 指仅仅因为某人与犯罪分子有接触或出现在同一场合,就推断其参与了犯罪活动)。这意味着许多人的逻辑是:如果你与爱泼斯坦有任何互动,一起参加过活动,有照片或邮件往来,或者在他的通讯录里,就自动等同于性侵和同谋。
例如,我们接下来要讨论的迈克尔·杰克逊,他没有出现在飞行记录中,没有在岛上的记录或照片,也没有任何受害者指控他,仅仅因为他曾短暂拜访过爱泼斯坦在棕榈滩的别墅,就被贴上了“参与性派对”的标签。让我简单解释一下这个过程。还记得指控安德鲁王子的弗吉尼亚·罗伯茨(Virginia Roberts,即弗吉尼亚·朱弗尔)吗?在2015年的证词中,她的律师问:“你在爱泼斯坦的住所见过哪些名人?”她回答:“我见过迈克尔·杰克逊。”律师又问:“他有没有接受爱泼斯坦提供的任何不当服务?”她回答:“没有。”“你有没有看到他与任何未成年女孩发生性接触?”她回答:“没有。”罗伯茨进一步解释说,根据她的观察,杰克逊只是那里的客人,并拒绝了爱泼斯坦提供的按摩服务。然而,迈克尔·杰克逊的名字仍然经常出现在关于萝莉岛的讨论中。
这又回到了一个非常普遍的心理现象,也解释了深度感知错觉(Illusion of Depth Perception: 指人们在信息过载时,大脑自动将所有相关信息归入同一模板,从而产生对事件深度和复杂性错误认知的现象)。人们听过太多爱泼斯坦、岛屿、恋童癖等关键词。因为细节太多,很容易导致信息过载(Information Overload: 指信息量超出个人处理能力,导致难以有效理解和决策的状态)。所以大脑会自动将所有出现过的名字都归入同一个模板,以节省交叉核实和验证的麻烦。
类似的例子还有很多。例如,为什么中国人一提到西方国家,就立刻想到他们是邪恶的殖民者,欺负中国,逼我们签订屈辱条约?因为几十年来,中国共产党(CCP: 中国的执政党)一直在批判美国,向人们灌输受害者叙事,例如“八国联军侵华”。但如果你实际查一下,绝大多数欧洲国家,加上澳大利亚,与中国并没有冲突,但你仍然会自动将它们归入同一个模板。
事实上,别说从未去过岛上的杰克逊,即使是那些去过岛上的人,也无法证明他们接受了性服务,甚至参与了对未成年人的性侵。原因很简单,对于爱泼斯坦这样的顶尖人物,他最需要的是收集名人作为社交资产(Social Asset: 指个人或组织通过社会关系网络获得的声望、影响力或资源),为他背书。这类似于参加派对,与各种名人合影,但你能说这些人一定有深厚的关系或友谊吗?不。例如,我曾在一次活动中见过成龙(Jackie Chan: 香港著名演员),甚至和他合影。如果现在党国逮捕了像郭文贵(Guo Wengui: 流亡美国的中国商人,以爆料中国政商界内幕闻名)这样的异见人士,调查发现成龙曾与这位异见人士合影,这是否意味着成龙也是反党反政府人士?按照这个逻辑,与斯蒂芬·霍金合影的大卫·格罗斯教授也曾接受中央电视台(CCTV: 中国国家电视台)采访,并与主持人合影,这是否意味着中央电视台也在组织性服务?
Original English Source
next to the even more bizarre case of stephen hawking and michael jackson regarding hawking, this is another example of mindlest criticism on the simplified chinese internet. many people exhaimed in surprise. after seeing this photo saying that even hawking had fallen victim, however, the truth is that this photo was taken in march two thousand six when he was invited to attend a scientific workshop on quantum gravity sponsored by upstein. the media has also reported publicly that abstein frequently sponsored academic events to enhance his image and expand his network. the meeting was held on saint thomas island near a little saint james island, and this island did not belong to abstein during the conference. break. epstein invited many scientists, including hawking to briefly visit his little saint james island for a barbecue dinner, after which this photo was taken of the three man in the photo. besides hawking, the man in the backrow is a theoretical physicist from princeton and a recipient of two thousand four nobel prize in physics, david gross. the man in the front row was also a prominent figure. his name is kip thorne, colleague and friend end hawking after a recipient of the twenty seventeen nobel prize in physics. the woman in lower right corner is lisa randall, also a harvard theoretical physicist and one of the top physicists of our time. as for the woman next to hawking, there is currently no clear information. she is most likely hawking's personal caregiver. the insidious nature of this photo lies in the fact that it somehow exploits people's stereotypes, making them think that a slightly attractive woman is likely to be one of absteinen's sexual companions. little, did they know that there also beautiful women among top physicists? some might wonder why estein didn't hold the workshop on his own island, which would be more convenient instead of going to someone else's 's territory. after seeing this picture, you'll understand this thirty two square kilometer island is saint thomas island, with the conference was held little saint james island. on the other hand, is the small dot next to it. yes, you read that right the world famous little saint. james island is only zero point two, eight square kilometers in area. and all the buildings on the island combined only have a total building area of two to three thousand square meters. this might seem large to some chinese people, but it's far from enough to host a large scale event in short, a small resort with only two or three thousand square meters. and the main buildings only over seven hundred square meters to have so many people on the island at once. how many exactly this seminar are invited more than twenty top physicists from around the world, and even including a company in personnel, there must be at least four or five people considering that it has been exposed before the style will. little saint james island is usually one on many. that is one man with multiple girls, so that would require hundreds of people friends who have lived in large houses in north america, can evaluate this. if your houses already seven hundred or eight hundred square meters can accommodate more than one hundred people. people for orgy. are they all going to be crammed ed into the ackyard ard wn, unless you're like upstein, bringing seven or eight people to the island at a time in shifts. more importantly, professor lawrence krauss, the organizer and participant of the event, generously shared this photo on his blog without any intention of covering it out. it's hard to imagine how he would introduce this event to these dozens of world announce scientists, gentlemen, and ladies next week were going to a small island in the coribbian to discuss the issue of gravitational waves. after the meeting, we've organizthe group activities due to, the the limited space to hold the playboy's rules and entering batchers according to the alphabetical order of your names as arranged by the organizers, elderly and disable led have priority. the first bat will be the next batch trying to get everyone involved is that right? cool. finally, so far, none of the aforementioned victim girls have come forward to accuse hawking of participying in any improper activities. hawking's name is not in esteine's little black book, which is the contact list. so how much hawking participated and whether he was framed, you can judge for yourself, just a quick mention here among the rumours about hawking. there is a widely circulated picture like this. what does that mean? are you saying that hawking also frequently went to the island for pleasure? yes, jeffrey, that is abstein like to invite intellectuals to the island to reward them for their outstanding work for humanity and other darker reasons. did jeffrey ever talk to you about hawking's preferences? yes. he like to watch naked pigs solving complex equations on a huge blackboard. this content is inherently absurd in clearly theatrical, not especious or formal speech, not especially the last sentence, which is obviously, mocking abstince, physical disability and inability to stand. in fact, you won't find this image in any officially published document from a formatting standpoint. it's neither an email record nor a formal statement and it lacthe speaker's name, time and location. it started as a critical image uploaded to twitter and later spread on reddit as a shocking point of discussion, eventually circulating in simplified chinese and becoming a tool to promote conspiracy theories about the weakness of the united states, speaking of conspiracy theories? or does this point out one of the most common conspiracy theory thought processes in the entire abstein case, the association of appearance with criminal activity as a basis for inference. what does this mean? many people's logic is that if you had any interaction with abstein participated in activities together, had photos or email exexchanges wewere on his contact list with automatically of quits to sexual assault and complicity. for example, michael jackson, when we will discuss next, didn't appear in the flight. loggs had no record of being on the island or any photos and wasn't accused by any victim yet simply because he visited abstenes villa in pomb beach for a while he was labeled to participating in an orgy. let me briefly explained the rocess. remember virginia roberts, who accused prince andrew during the twenty fifteen teen deposition, her lawyer asked, did did see see any celebrities at abstines repreplied. i saw michael jackson, the lawyer then asked, did he receive any improper service from abstein. she replied, no. did you see him have any sexual contact with any underage ggirls? she replied, no. roberfururexplaplathat based on her observations, jackson was only gueguest there and refused the massage service service offered by upstein. however, mj 's names still frequently ofpears in discussions about little saint james island. this brings this back to a very common psychological phenomenon, which also explains the illusion of depth perception. people have heard too many names keywords like epin, isisland and pedophilia. because there are too many details, it easily leads to information overload. so the brain automatically puts all the names that have appeared into the same templant to save the trouble of cross referencing and verification. there are many similar examples. for example, why do chinese people when mentioning western countries immediately think of them as evil colonizers, who bully china and forced us to sign humiliating treaties because the ccp has been criticizing the us for decades, instilling in people, narratives of victim hoods, such as the eight-nation alliance invading china. but if you actually check the vast majority of european countries, plus australia had no conflict with china, yet you still automatically categorized into into same templant. in fact, let alone one jackson who never went to the island, even those who did go to the island cannot prove that they receive sexual services or even participated in the sexual assaulof minors. the reason is simple for top figures like abstein. what he needed most was to collect celebrities as social assets to endors him. this is similar to attending parties and getting various phohotos with celebrities. but can you say that these people necessarily have deep relationships or friendships? no, for example, i met jackie chan at an event in and even took a photo with him. if the party state now arrest a dissident like guo wengui and on investigation finds that jackie chan had a photo with this dissident. does that mean that jackie chain is also in anti party and anti government figure? following this logic, professor david gross, who had a photo with stephen hawking, also accepted in interview with cctv and took a photo with the host. does that mean cctv organizing sexual services?
特朗普与马斯克:意图与机会的边界
接下来是大家最关心的两个人:特朗普和马斯克是否参与其中?他们的名字在最近曝光的文件中频繁出现,不是吗?
我们先谈谈特朗普。他的名字在那300万页文件中确实出现了不少次。他在“小黑本”里,飞行记录偶尔提到他,甚至还有他与爱泼斯坦的合影。那么,他的具体情况如何呢?我们来分解一下。
- “小黑本”:特朗普和爱泼斯坦确实是老相识。他们在1990年代是邻居,都住在前面提到的那些豪华豪宅里,相距不远。既然他们都在纽约上流社会混迹,都是社交达人,彼此有联系方式也很正常。
- 飞行记录:根据公开记录,特朗普乘坐爱泼斯坦的私人飞机总共有7次,集中在1993年至1997年之间。路线都是从纽约飞往爱泼斯坦在大西洋城的度假村。这些航班都没有前往萝莉岛附近。基本上,这只是两个住在同一区域的亿万富翁碰巧共用一架私人飞机。
- 照片:两人在一起的合影,大多是2000年在特朗普的海湖庄园(Mar-a-Lago resort: 特朗普在佛罗里达州棕榈滩的私人俱乐部和住所)度假村拍摄的公开照片。照片中还包括当时特朗普的女友梅拉尼娅(Melania Trump: 特朗普的妻子)。
- 关系破裂:有趣的是,到2004年,这两个人彻底闹翻了。第一个原因是度假村房产纠纷。棕榈滩有一栋豪宅被拍卖,爱泼斯坦想买,但特朗普出价更高,把他挤掉了。第二个原因是特朗普发现爱泼斯坦试图挖走他海湖庄园度假村的女员工。之后,特朗普就把他踢出了海湖庄园俱乐部。从逻辑上讲,如果特朗普真的参与了爱泼斯坦的性贩卖,并且有他的录像带作为把柄,他敢因为这些事情与爱泼斯坦决裂吗?这似乎说不通,对吧?
- 政治声明:最后,关于政治声明,到目前为止,前面提到的受害者中,没有任何人站出来指控或提及特朗普。唯一引人注目的是2016年,一名匿名女子站出来,声称1994年唐纳德·特朗普在杰弗里·爱泼斯坦位于曼哈顿的豪宅中性侵了她,当时她只有13岁。然而,这份证词的可信度极低。
- 首先,这名女子从未露面,在三次听证会中,她使用了不同的化名(Aliases: 假名或别名)、假地址和假电话号码,甚至在整个过程中改变了她的外貌。这意味着我们仍然无法在媒体上找到任何关于她的真实信息,她的姓名、外貌、年龄都不得而知。
- 其次,她的证词存在矛盾。例如,当警方问她为什么当时不报案,却等了20多年才提出申诉时,她声称当时不认识特朗普,直到看了他的真人秀节目《学徒》(The Apprentice: 特朗普主持的美国真人秀节目)才认出他。但问题是,1994年特朗普在美国已经是家喻户晓的名人,一位房地产大亨和作家,说她完全不认识他,这未免太牵强了。即使她最初不认识,看了电视才认出来,《学徒》是在2004年播出的,那为什么又等了12年才报案呢?
- 第三,她提起诉讼的时机非常可疑(Suspicious Timing: 指事件发生的时间点异常巧合,可能暗示有其他目的或动机)。它恰逢特朗普第一次总统竞选前夕。她中途无故撤诉。此外,推动这起诉讼的幕后推手,帮助这名女子起草诉状并联系媒体的人,名叫诺玛·洛博(Norma Lobo: 美国著名八卦脱口秀制作人),是美国著名八卦脱口秀的制作人。这个节目以招募假嘉宾、制造戏剧性冲突而闻名,常被认为是“垃圾电视”的典型。洛博有捏造名人丑闻、利用嘉宾编造故事、撰写剧本以制造流量的历史。这基本上就是美国版的狗仔队文化(Sensationalism: 指通过夸大、煽情或制造争议来吸引公众注意力的媒体现象),利用选举进行炒作的可能性非常高。
根据以上信息,我们可以说,从目前掌握的证据来看,特朗普涉案的可能性不高。
最后,在最近爱泼斯坦相关文件解密后,包括布赖特巴特新闻网(Breitbart: 美国右翼新闻和评论网站)在内的多家媒体都将报道重点放在了埃隆·马斯克与爱泼斯坦的关联上。不得不说,根据目前掌握的信息,马斯克可能确实有过不良意图(Malicious Intentions: 指怀有恶意或不轨的企图)。在2012年至2013年间,马斯克和爱泼斯坦两次交换邮件,讨论潜在的会面。以下是原文的直译:
第一次邮件往来发生在2012年9月25日。爱泼斯坦首先邀请马斯克说:“如果你有时间来我的加勒比岛,欢迎带人过来。我11月和12月大部分时间都在那里。”马斯克当天回复:“听起来不错。如果10月有时间我就去。”同年10月,爱泼斯坦跟进说:“我们可以在纽约见面,或者我可以派私人飞机去接你。只需要45分钟。”然后,在11月下旬,爱泼斯坦问:“你会有多少人乘坐直升机来岛上?”马斯克回复:“可能只有我,直到塔卢拉(Talulah Riley: 埃隆·马斯克的前妻)。”请注意,塔卢拉当时是马斯克的妻子。接着是关键的一句。马斯克问:“你岛上哪一天或哪一晚的派对最疯狂?”然后在圣诞节当天,马斯克问:“你安排了派对吗?我今年工作得像疯子一样,所以孩子们圣诞节回家后,我真的很想在圣巴特岛(Saint Barthélemy: 加勒比海的一个度假岛屿)或其他岛屿放松一下。非常感谢你的邀请,但我们不想要一个太安静的岛屿。”请注意,他说的这个岛屿不是萝莉岛,而是200多公里外另一个不属于爱泼斯坦的度假岛屿。爱泼斯坦回复:“明白了,我在圣巴特岛等你。我岛上的男女比例可能会让塔卢拉不舒服。”这里简单解释一下,“男女比例不舒服”是什么意思?根据之前曝光的信息,萝莉岛上的男女比例通常是极度失衡的,往往是一个男性客户对应十几个甚至更多的女性伴游。所以他是在暗示,这个比例可能会让人不舒服。这实际上是一个测试(Test: 指通过某种方式探查对方意图或底线),意思是“你带着你老婆来,你确定你老婆能接受这种状况吗?别让她吓着了,然后报警。”接着是最令人不寒而栗的部分。马斯克的回复是:“这个比例对塔卢拉来说不是问题。”你可以想象这背后传递的信息。然而,1月3日,马斯克突然发邮件取消了行程,理由是交通问题。这是他首次计划访问该岛失败。
然后,差不多一年后,马斯克又发了一封邮件询问:“圣诞节和新年假期期间,你有没有合适的时间让我去那个地区拜访?”爱泼斯坦回复:“1号到8号的任何一天都可以。你想什么时候来玩都可以。”两天后,爱泼斯坦取消了行程,说:“坏消息。不幸的是,我的日程安排要求我留在美国。我真的很期待终于能一起玩。只是为了好玩。我很失望,希望我们能尽快重新安排。”然后就没有下文了。
从以上邮件中,我们可以很容易地推断出,这两轮邮件是马斯克最接近访问该岛的时刻,但他之前可能并没有去过。否则,爱泼斯坦就不会说“真的很期待终于能一起玩”这样的话。其次,马斯克很可能知道岛上的性派对,因为到2012年,爱泼斯坦案已经全球闻名,但他似乎仍然渴望前往。所以马斯克的情况很可能是“有贼心,没贼胆”(Had the Intention but Didn't Have the Opportunity: 指有做坏事的意图,但缺乏实施的勇气或机会)。
以上总结了目前为止一些最具争议和知名人士的涉案情况,是不是比你想象的要“不那么震撼”?
Original English Source
next to the two names that everyone is most concerned about? did trump in must participate their names frequently appear in the recently exposed documents? don't day. let's talk about trump. first, his name appeared quite a few times in those three million pages. he's in the little black book. the flight logs occasionally mentioned in emails, and they're even photos of him with abstein. so what exactly is his situation? let's break it down. first, the little black book trump and abstein were indeed old acquaintances. they were neighbors in the nineties living in those luxurious mentioned mentioned earlier, not far from each other since they both mingled in new yorks, high society and were both social butterflies. it's normal that they had each ther's contact information. next, the flight logs acaccording public recorords trumply on empsteen's private jtotototal of times concontrated between nineteen ninety three and nineteen ninety seven. the roots were all from new york to estins resort in atlantic city. none of of the lights ts ent ent to near little saint james island. basicit was just two billionairres living in the same area who who happened to share a private jet regarding the photos, the stststing photos of the two togetowere, mostly public photos taken at trumps mar-a-lago resort in two thousand. the photos also include melania, who was trummps girlfriend at the time. interestingly, by two thousand four, these two guys had a complete falling out. the first reason was a dispute over resort property. there was a mention in pomb beach being auctioned off abstein wwanted to buy it, but trump out bid him. the second reason was that trump discovered abstein was trying to poach female staff from his mar-a-lago resort. after that, trump kicked him out of the mar-a-lago club. logically, if trump had really participated in epsteine sex trafficking, and there were compromising video tape of him, would he dare to break ties with abstein over these things? it doesn't seem to make sense, right? finally, regarding political statements so far, none of the victims mentioned earlier have come forward to accused or mentioned trump. the only instance that stands out is from twenty sixteen. when an anonymous woman came forward, claiming the donald trump had sexually assaulted her a jeffrey epstein's mansion in manhattan in nineteen ninety four, and that she was only thirteen years old at the time. however, the credibility of this testimony is highly questionable. first, the woman never showed her face, and during three hearings, she used different aliases, fake addresses and fake phone numbers and even changed her appearance through out the process. this means that we still cannot find any real information about her in the media. her name appearance her age remain unknown. second, her testimony contains contradictions. for example, when asked by the police why she didn't report the incident at the time and waited more than twenty years to file a complaint, she claimed that she didn't recognize trump at the time and only recognize him after watching his reality, show the apprentice. but the problem is that trump was already well known wn celebrity in the united states in nineteen ninety four, a real estate mogl and author to say that she didn't recognize him at all is quite far fetched, even if she didn't recognize him initially and only recognize him after watching television. the apprentice aired in two thousand and four. so why weight twelve years to report it? third, the timing of her lawsuit is suspicious. it coincided with the eve of trumppfirst presidential campaign n. she dropped the lawsuit midway without any reason. furthermore, the driving force behind this lawsuit, the person who helped the woman draft the complaint and contact the media is a man named norma lobo producer er of famfamous american tabloid talk show. the show is known for recruiting fake guests and manufacturing dramatic conflicts, and is often considered a prime example of trashy television. lobo has a history of fabricating celebrity scandals using guests to lie maup stories and rightscripts to generate traffic. basically, this is an american version of sensationalism, and the possibility of being being a stun to capitalize on the election is very high. based on the above information, we can say that from the evidence currently available, the likelihood of trumps involvement is not high. finally, after the reccently classification of documents related to upstein, several media outlets, including breitbart, have focused their reporting on elon musk's association with abstein. it should be said that based on the information currently available, musk may have had malicious intentions between twenty twelve and twenty thirteen. musking epstein exchange emails twice discussing a potential meeting below is a direct translation of the original text. the first exchange was on september twenty fifty fifty. twtwelve epstein first invited musk saying, if you have time to come to my caribbean island, you're welcome to bring someone. i'll be there for most of november in december. quote must replied that day sounds good. i'll go if i have time in october of the same year, epsteine followed up, saying we can meet new york, or i can send a private jet to pick you up. it's only forty five minutes away. then in late november, estein asked how many people will be coming with you on the helicopter to the island? muscreplied probably just me until talulah. note, talulah was musks wife at the time, then came the crucial sentence. musk asked, which day are night on your island, has the wildest party, then on christmas day must asked, have you arranged any parties? i've been working like crazy this year. so after the kids go home for christmas, i really want to relax on saint barthélemy or some other island. thank you very much for the invitation, but we don't want a too quiet island. 嗯, quote note, he said this island wasn't little saint james island, but another resort island over two hundred kilomometers away, not belonging to epstein. epsteine replied, understood omomet you on saint barthélemy. the male female ratio on my island might make a talulah uncomfortable mete, a brief explanation here. what is uncomfortable? male female ratio mean, according to previously exposed information, the male female ratio and little saint james island was usually extremely skewed, often with a dozen or more female escort, serving one male client. so he was hinting that the ratio might be uncomfortable. this was actually a test, meaning you're bringing your wife. are you sure your wife can accept this situation, don't let her get scared. and call the police quote then came the most chilling part must reply was the ratio is not a problem for talulah. you can imagine the message conveyed behind this. however, on january, third, musk suddenly send an email cancelling the trip, citing transportation problems. this was the first time his planned visit to the island fell through, then almost a year later must send another email writing during the christmas and new year holidays. would you have a suitable time for me to visit in that area? epsteine replied, any day from the first to the eighth? is fine. you can come over any time you want to have fun. quote. two days later, estein cancelled the trip, saying bad news. unfortunately, my schedule requires me to stay in the i was really looking forward to finally being able to hang out together. just for fun. i'm disappointed and hope we can reschedule soon quote, and that was the end of it. from the above emails. we can easily deduce that these two rounds of emails were the closest muask came to visiting the island, but he probably hadn't been there before. otherwise, epstein wouldn't have said something like looking forward to finally being able to hang out together. secondly, muse was likely aware of the orges on the island, because by twenty twelve, the abstein case was already globally known, but he still seemed eager to go. so musque situation is likely that he have the intention, but didn't have the opportunity, yet the above summarises, the situations of some of the most controversial and famous people involved so far, isn't it less shocking than you might have imagined?
司法困境与程序正义:制度的局限性
接下来,我们来讨论为什么萝莉岛事件除了涉及大量名人之外,还会引发如此高层次的讨论。最重要的原因是整个事件呈现出的强烈反差(Stark Contrast: 指两种事物之间存在巨大且引人注目的差异)。
一方面,国会两院都施加了极大的压力,要求披露信息。当《爱泼斯坦透明法案》在众议院投票时,以427票对1票通过;参议院则一致通过,这代表了普遍的民意。另一方面,经过多年的调查,除了爱泼斯坦和他的女友兼合伙人麦克斯韦尔(Ghislaine Maxwell: 爱泼斯坦的长期女友和同谋)之外,只有安德鲁王子被追究了责任,而且也只是部分责任。几乎所有其他名人客户都没有被曝光,也几乎没有人被定罪、失业或受到任何形式的惩罚。这是公众最无法接受的。所以,制造了这么大的烂摊子,结果最后只“服务”了一个客户安德鲁王子,谁会相信呢?这难道不是明摆着有权势人物牵涉其中,他们害怕曝光后影响太大吗?所以也难怪有人在推特上说:“美国自称是民主的灯塔,拥有独立的司法系统,总统也不能凌驾于法律之上,但最终不就是‘五十步笑百步’吗?和中国没什么两样。”如果真是这样,那以后就别再嘲笑中国了。
问题到底出在哪里?这很简单。
- 首先,我不排除你提到的可能性,即客户名单中包括一些美国盟友的总统、国王等,一旦曝光会严重损害美国联盟。
- 但还有另一种情况不容忽视——法律系统的困境(Predicament of the Legal System: 指法律系统在特定情况下,由于证据、程序或社会压力等因素而面临的难以解决的难题)。我们前面提到爱泼斯坦案,尤其是发生在那样一个偏远孤岛上的性侵案件,是极其难以起诉的。
我们以安德鲁王子为例。如果法院不接受证据,坚持要将他送进监狱,而安德鲁王子顽固否认,让他的律师死磕到底,结果会怎样?很可能,检方会被告知证据不足。受害者等了这么多年才提出申诉,有没有可靠的物证?没有。所有证据都是间接证据(Circumstantial Evidence: 指不能直接证明事实,但可以推断事实存在的证据)。你只有证词,而且大多是被告在岛上的记录。即使有他们两人赤身裸体躺在一起的照片,谁能证明他们真的发生了性关系,以及当时她未满18岁?如果安德鲁王子厚颜无耻地说他当时神志不清,或者发现她未满18岁后就停止了,你能证明他在撒谎吗?
所以你看,如果遵循无罪推定原则(Presumption of Innocence: 法律原则,指在被证明有罪之前,任何人都应被视为无罪)和现代法律的标准,这些客户都无法被定罪。在这种情况下,即使司法部获得了岛上的记录或一些新照片,他们会公布吗?或者说,他们能公布吗?一旦公布,又无法定罪任何人,涉事人员就会以诽谤罪(Defamation: 指通过言语或文字损害他人名誉的行为)起诉他们,并要求巨额赔偿。记住,这些人的律师可不是好惹的。你又不是中国政府,会被告到死。
但另一方面,公众的强烈抗议和舆论压力又在那里,你不能无动于衷。最终的结果只能是这种错综复杂(Convoluted Mess: 指情况复杂混乱,难以理清)的局面。报纸刊登了一个淡化版(Watered-Down Version: 指对信息进行删减或弱化,使其影响力减小的版本),揭示了文件中大量被完全模糊的关键信息,即使没有任何所谓的上层政治阻挠,他也只能这样做。这不是什么美国政治的虚伪或阴谋,它仅仅是现代司法系统必须承担的程序正义(Procedural Justice: 指司法程序本身的公平性和公正性,而非结果的公平性)的代价。此案中“天下乌鸦一般黑”的观念,很大程度上是文化误读带来的误解。
Original English Source
next, let's discuss whether a little saint james island incident has sparked such a high level of discussion besides involving a large number of celebrities. the most important reason is the stark contrast presented by the entire incident. on one hand, there is extremely strong pressure from both houses of congress demanding disclosure when the epstein transparency act was voted on the house of representatives, passed four hundred twenty seven to one, the the senate passed unanimously, representing, the general public opinion. on the other hand, after years of investigation, besides epstein in his girlfriend partner, maxwell, only prince andrew was held accountable, and even then only partially almost none of the other celebrity clients were exposed, and almost no one was convicted, lost their job or suffered any form of punishment. this is what the public finds most unacceptable. so it's crebecause such a huge mess. but in the end, you only served one client andrew, who would believe that isn't it obvious that this is too too powerful figures are involved. they're afraid that the follow will be too great if it's exposed. so it's no wonder that the investigation. someone on twitter, said the us claims to be a beacon of democracy with an independent judiciary in the principle that, even the president is not above the law, but in the end, isn't it just a case of the pot calling in the kettle black, not much different from china quooif. so then stop ridiculing china in the future. what is the problem really? that's simple. first, i don't rule out the possibility you mentioned that is, for example, the client list includes some high profile us allies presidents, kings, etc. and exposure would seriously damage us alliances. but there's another situation that can't be ignored the predicament of the legal system. we mentioned the upstein case earlier, especially sexual assault cases that occurred on a remote and isolated island like that one. they are extremely difficult to prosecute. let's take prince. andrew was an example, if the court doesn't accept the evidence and insist on sending him to prison and prince andrew adamantly denies it and lets his lawyers fight to the death. what will be the result? most likely, the prosecution will be told that the evidence is insufficient. the victim waited so many years to file a complaint. is there any reliable physical evidence? no, all the evidence is circumstantial. you only have testimony and most are recorord of being being on the island, even if there are photos of the two of them line naked together, who can prove that they actually had sexual relation and that she was under eighteen at the time. if andrew acts shamelessly and says he wasn't in his right mind at the time or that he stop when he found out she was under eighteen. can you prove he's lying? so you see if we follow the principle of innocent until proven guilty and the standards of modern law, none of these clients can be convicted in this situation, even if the department of justice obtains island records are some new photos there. they make them public or rather can they make them public once they are made public, and they can't convict anyone. the people involved will sue them for defamation and demand huge compensation. remember, these people's lawyers are not to be trifled with. you're not the chinese government you'd be sued to death. but on the other hand, the public outcry and public opinion are there you? you can't do nothing. the final result can only be this convoluted mess. the newspaper published a watered-down version, revealing a lot of key information that was completely obscured in the document, even without any so called political obstruction from higher levels. he could only do this. this isn't some kind of american political hypocrisy or conspiracy. it simply, the procedural justice that the modern judicial system has to bear the notion that all crows are black in this case is largely a misunderstanding brought about by a cultural misinterpretation.
反思人性与制度:限制而非消除邪恶
在本期节目的最后,我想对许多因为爱泼斯坦案而批判美国,甚至得出“美国已死”、“宪政只是谎言”结论的人说几句话。如果你是带着宣传目的(Propaganda Agenda: 指以传播特定信息或观点为目的的计划或策略)来的,那我无话可说。但如果你是真心这样想的,那么你可能从一开始就误解了美国制度。
在许多人眼中,自由和民主或宪政似乎是一种万灵药(Panacea: 指能解决所有问题的灵丹妙药),一剂吞下就能瞬间让所有人变成道德高尚的人,仿佛上帝睁开了眼睛,在每一个案件中都实现了实质正义(Substantive Justice: 指案件结果本身的公平和公正),惩罚了每一个坏人,洗清了每一个好人。但这可能吗?不。
首先,没有任何制度,无论是基于宗教信仰还是法律,能够从根本上消除邪恶,提高一个群体的平均道德水平。如果你期待这一点,你本质上是希望改造人性(Transform Human Nature: 指从根本上改变人类固有的本性、欲望和行为模式),这与毛泽东(Mao Zedong: 中国共产党创始人之一,中华人民共和国的缔造者)和文化大革命(Cultural Revolution: 1966年至1976年在中国发生的一场政治运动)试图做的事情如出一辙。几天前我在推特上表达这个观点时,很多人反驳我说“基督教很伟大,信教的人普遍善良,道德水平高得多”。如果真是这样,那我问你,全世界各地神父和天主教堂的丑闻多到已经成为一个梗(Meme: 指在互联网上迅速传播的幽默图片、视频或文本)是不是事实?基督教发起的十字军东征(Crusades: 中世纪欧洲基督徒对穆斯林发起的宗教战争)是不是事实?中世纪烧死布鲁诺(Giordano Bruno: 意大利哲学家、天文学家,因坚持日心说和异端思想被烧死)是不是基督徒干的?我在这里无意冒犯天主教徒或基督徒。我的观点是,如果仅仅相信一种宗教就能创造一个所有人都是好人的乌托邦世界,那又何必进行宗教改革(Religious Reform: 指对宗教信仰、实践或组织结构进行重大改变的运动)呢?最终,基督教文明带来的美好事物,难道不是通过限制而非消除人心中邪恶的法律和制度改革实现的吗?
现实是,在讨论人性本身时,美国人与中国人、黑人与白人、男人与女人、同性恋与异性恋、基督徒与无神论者、共产主义者与自由主义者,甚至支持政府的人与反对政府的人之间,并没有固有的优劣之分。唯一的区别在于,一个好的制度能够最大限度地约束人性中的邪恶(Restrain the Evil within Human Nature: 指通过规则、法律和道德规范来限制人类内在的负面倾向),而一个坏的制度,例如鼓励儿子举报父亲的制度,则会放大这种邪恶,造成巨大的破坏。
因此,没必要因为一些有权有势的名人犯了错,就哀叹美国的衰落,因为那些在权力榜和富豪榜上的人,骨子里的人性和道德标准,在极端情况下,并不比你我这些普通人高尚。这适用于每一个人,包括屏幕前的你和我。这就像我们都批评官员腐败,但如果你身处那个位置,你很可能也会这样做。唯一的区别在于,我们是否允许自己身处一个会煽动人性邪恶(Incite the Evil in Human Nature: 指激发或鼓励人类内在的负面倾向)的环境。
好了,以上就是本期节目的全部内容。如果你有任何问题,请留言或给我发邮件。我们下期再见。
Original English Source
at the end of this program. i want to say something to the many people who have been critizing the us because of the abstain case, even concluding that america is dead. ad. constitutionalism is just a lie. if you're here with a propaganda agenda, then i have nothing to say. but if you genuinely think that way, then you may have misunderstood the american system from the beginning, in many a people's eyes, freedom and conmocracy or constitutionalism seem like a panacea, a major pill that once swallowed instantly transforms everyone into morally upright individuals, as you got to, has opened his eyes and achieved substantive justice. in every case, punishing every bad person in exonerating, every good person, but is this possible? no, first of all, no system whether religious faith based or legal can fundamentally eliminate evil, raise the average moral level of a group. if you expect this, you are essentially hoping to transform human nature, which is the same thing mao zedong. and the cultural revolution tried to do. when i express this view on twitter a few days ago, a lot of people refuted me saying that christianity is great. and religious people are generally kind, and there are moral level is much higher. if that were true that i ask you, is it a fact that there are so many scandals involving priests and catholic church is around the world that it has become a meme with the crusades initiated by christians was the burning of bruno at the stake during the middle ages done by christians. i'm not trying to be disrespectful to catholis or christians here. my point is, if simply believing in a religion can created uuopan world where everyone is good, then then bother with religious reform. ultimately. aren't the good thing that christian civilization has brought about achieved the legal and institutional reforms that limit, rather than eliminate the evil in people's hearts. the reality is when discussing human nature itself, there's no inherent superiority between americans and chinese black people and white people, men and women, homosexuals and hederosexuals christians, and atheists communist and liberals, or even those who support the government and those who oppose it. the only difference is that a good system can maximally restrained the evil within human nature, while a bad system, such as one that encourage his sons to report their fathers, can amplify this evil and cause immense destruction. therefore, theis no need to lament the decline of the united states. just because some powerful and famous people have committed wrondoing, because those on the powlist and the ford's lists deep down their humanity and moral standards, extreme situations are no better than those of ddjamin. and his fellow villagers, this applies to everyone, including you and me watching this screen. it's like how we all criticize officials for corruption. but if you were in that position, you would most likely do the same. the only difference is whether we allow ourselves to be in an environment that incites the evil in human nature. okay, that's all for today's program. if you have any questions, please leave a comment or send me an email see you next time.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Jeffrey Epstein, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, Stephen Hawking, Michael Jackson, Prince Andrew, Virginia Giuffre, Ghislaine Maxwell, Talulah Riley, David Gross, Kip Thorne, Lisa Randall, Lawrence Krauss, Norma Lobo
公司/组织: US Department of Justice, FBI, Clinton Foundation, Gates Foundation, Bear Stearns, Dalton School