AI发展误区:如何构建可持续且赋能人类的未来AI TED 2025-12-01

AI的承诺与现实:我们正在犯的错误

AI曾被承诺将彻底改变人类的未来,它能彻底改变科学、大幅提升生产力,甚至解决气候变化问题。

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Revolutionizing science, turbocharging productivity, even solving climate change, AI has been promised to transform the future of humanity.

或者,它也可能带来我们所知的“人类终结”。这真的取决于你问谁。

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Or it’s set to bring about the end of humanity as we know it. It really depends on who you ask.

在我看来,这两种说法都是错误的,它们只会分散我们对眼前真正问题的注意力。

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In my opinion, both of these statements are wrong, and what they do is they distract us from the real issue at hand.

我们正在以牺牲人类和地球为代价,错误地发展人工智能。

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We're doing AI wrong at the expense of people and the planet.

“大AI”模式的弊端:资源消耗与环境破坏

就目前而言,少数大型企业正投入巨额资本,向我们兜售大型语言模型(LLMs: Large Language Models: 基于海量数据训练的通用AI模型),将其作为解决我们所有问题的方案。

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As it stands, a handful of large corporations are using huge capital to sell us large language models, or LLMs, as the solution to all of our problems.

这可能是因为他们认为这些模型将带来超人工智能(Superintelligence: 远超人类智能水平的AI),或情感智能(emotional intelligence),基本上就是硅谷当下流行的任何一种智能。

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possibly because they think that they'll bring about superintelligence, emotional intelligence, basically whatever flavor of intelligence is trending in Silicon Valley these days.

在这场竞赛中,他们正在建造越来越多、越来越大的数据中心(data centers: 存储、处理和分发数据的物理设施),全然不顾人类和地球的代价。

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And in this race, they're building more and bigger data centers, the people and the planet be damned.

Meta计划在未来几年内建造一个曼哈顿大小的数据中心,这是其数百亿美元投资的一部分,旨在开发超人工智能。

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Meta is set to build a data center the size of Manhattan in the next few years, part of an investment of hundreds of billions of dollars towards a quest to develop superintelligence.

OpenAI最近宣布了其位于德克萨斯州的Stargate数据中心的第一阶段建设。

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OpenAI recently announced the first phase of their Stargate data center in Texas.

一旦投入运营,它每年将排放370万吨二氧化碳当量(CO2 equivalents: 将不同温室气体的全球变暖潜力统一衡量为二氧化碳的量),这相当于整个冰岛的排放量。

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Once operational, it's set to emit 3.7 million tons of CO2 equivalents per year, as much as the whole country of Iceland.

xAI目前正被南孟菲斯的居民起诉,原因是其35台合法性存疑的燃气涡轮机造成空气污染,这些涡轮机为xAI的数据中心Colossus供电,加剧了该市最弱势居民的健康问题。

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xAI is currently being sued by the residents of South Memphis because of the air pollution caused by their 35 questionably legal gas turbines, which are powering its data center, Colossus, exacerbating the health issues of the city's most vulnerable residents.

然而多年来,像我这样的活动家和科学家一直在就AI日益增长的不可持续性发出警告。

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And yet, for years, activists and scientists like myself have been sounding the alarm when it comes to AI's increasing unsustainability.

这听起来耳熟吗?还记得石油巨头(Big Oil: 指大型石油公司及其对能源政策的影响)吗?现在我们有了“大AI”,它正遵循着完全相同的套路:

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Does this ring a bell? Remember Big Oil? Well now we have Big AI following the exact same playbook:

使用越来越多的资源,建造越来越大的数据结构,并向我们兜售这种发展某种程度上是不可避免的说法。

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using more and more resources, building bigger and bigger data structures. and selling us the narrative that this is somehow inevitable.

但如果我们能从过去的教训中学习,并利用它们来构建一个AI回馈地球而非索取的未来,那会怎样呢?

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But what if we could learn from the lessons of the past and use them to build a future in which AI is giving back to the planet, instead of taking away from it?

一个AI模型小而强大、性能更好且更可持续的未来。

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A future in which AI models are small but mighty, in which they are both better performing and more sustainable.

要做到这一点,我们必须从大型AI公司手中夺回权力(双关语),并将其交还给AI的开发者、监管者和用户。

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To do this, we have to take back the power, pun intended, from the big AI companies, and put it back into the hands of the developers, regulators and users of AI.

“越大越好”的误区:通用大模型的代价

今天,我们使用AI,就像为了找一把钥匙而打开整个体育场的所有灯一样。

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Today we use AI as if we were turning on all of the lights of a stadium just to find a pair of keys.

使用需要一个小城市能源需求来训练的巨大AI模型,只是为了告诉我们“敲门”笑话,或者帮助我们决定晚餐做什么。

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Using huge AI models trained using the energy demands of a small city just to tell us "knock-knock" jokes or help us figure out what to make for dinner.

这受“越大越好”心态的驱动。

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This is driven by a "bigger is better" mentality.

这已经成为AI领域的一种口头禅:更大的模型、更多的计算、更大的数据集、更多的能源,就等于更好的性能。

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This has become somewhat of a mantra in AI. Bigger models, more compute, bigger datasets, more energy equals better performance.

这种方法的巅峰就是大型语言模型(LLMs),例如ChatGPT(ChatGPT: OpenAI开发的一款基于大语言模型的聊天机器人),它们经过专门训练以实现通用性,能够回答任何问题、生成任何俳句,并同时充当你的治疗师。

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And the pinnacle of this approach are LLMs, models like ChatGPT, which are trained specifically to be general purpose, able to answer any question, generate any haiku, and act as your therapist while they're at it.

但这种性能是有代价的,因为训练成能执行所有任务的模型,每次使用的能量都比只能执行特定任务的模型更多。

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But this performance comes at a cost because models that are trained to do all tasks use more energy each time than models that can do a certain task at a time.

在我最近领导的一项研究中,我们研究了使用大型语言模型(LLMs)来回答简单问题,比如“加拿大的首都是什么?”

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In a recent study I led, we looked at using LLMs to answer simple questions, like, “What’s the capital of Canada?”

我们发现,与小型任务专用模型相比,它们使用的能量多达30倍。

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And we found that compared to a smaller task-specific model, they use up to 30 times more energy.

随着能源使用的增长,它们的成本也随之增加。

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And as this energy use grows, so does their cost.

本质上,能够负担得起构建和部署被认为是“最先进AI”的组织数量正在减少,仅限于少数拥有数百万美元可供挥霍的大型科技公司,而初创公司、学术界和非营利组织都被远远甩在后面。

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Essentially, with the number of organizations that can afford to build and deploy what’s considered state-of-the-art AI is shrinking, becoming limited to a handful of big tech companies with millions of dollars to burn, while startups, academics and nonprofits are all left in the dust.

因此,现在这少数大型AI公司,在“快速行动,打破常规”心态的驱使下,决定着一项可能影响数十亿人生活的技术的未来。

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So now this handful of big AI companies, largely gathered by the "move fast and break things" mentality, decides the future of a technology that can impact the lives of billions of people.

小型语言模型(Small LMs)的崛起:高效与可持续的未来

然而,在围绕着DeepSeek和ChatGPT等全球热议的背景下,一场革命在最近几个月悄然兴起。

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But in the background of all this hubbub around the DeepSeeks and the ChatGPTs of the world, a revolution has been quietly building in recent months.

这场革命由小型语言模型(Small LMs: 规模远小于传统大型语言模型的AI模型)驱动,它们也是语言模型,但其规模比传统大型语言模型(LLMs)小几个数量级。

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This revolution is driven by small LMs, which are also language models, but that are orders of magnitude smaller than traditional LLMs.

这个家族中最小的模型大约有1.35亿个参数(parameters: AI模型中可学习的变量,数量越多通常模型越大),这使得它比DeepSeek(DeepSeek: 一种大型语言模型)的模型小5000倍。

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The smallest of this family has around 135 million parameters, making it 5,000 times smaller than DeepSeek’s model.

这些模型通过使用更少的数据、更少的计算、更少的能源,却仍能达到相同的性能水平,从而颠覆了“越大越好”的心态。

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These models are flipping the script on the "bigger is better" mentality by using less data, less compute, less energy, and still having the same level of performance.

Hugging Face(Hugging Face: 一个开源机器学习平台)用于训练其小型语言模型的数据(data)经过精心策划,其中60%是教育性网页,根据其内容质量明确选择。

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The data used to train Hugging Face's small LM models was carefully curated to be 60 percent educational web pages, explicitly chosen based on the quality of their content.

这也意味着,用这些数据训练的模型在被查询时,产生错误信息或有害内容的可能性更小。

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This also means that the models that are trained on this data are less likely to produce misinformation or toxicity when we query them.

而且由于模型很小,它们可以真正在你的手机或网页浏览器上运行,让你在掌中就能访问最先进的AI,而无需庞大的数据中心。

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And since the models are so small, they can run literally on your phone or in your web browser, giving you access to state of the art AI in the palm of your hand without needing massive data centers.

除了环境影响之外,它们在网络安全、数据隐私和主权方面也具有优势,赋予用户对其所使用的AI更大的权力。

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And above and beyond environmental impacts, they also have benefits when it comes to cybersecurity, when it comes to data privacy and sovereignty, giving users more power over the AI that they're using.

由于它们更小、训练成本更低,它们让小型AI公司能够与社区连接,并与大型AI公司竞争,因为它们实际上能够负担得起训练和部署这些模型,并将其适应不同的用途,然后与社区共享,证明“减少、再利用、回收”也适用于AI。

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And since they're smaller and cheaper to train, they give smaller AI companies the ability to connect with a community and to compete with big AI companies, because they can actually afford to be training and deploying these models and adapting them to different uses, and then sharing them back with the community, proving that reduce, reuse, recycle also applies to AI.

超越大模型:多元AI方案助力气候行动

但事实是,AI不仅仅是小型语言模型。

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But the truth of the matter is that there's more to AI than just small LMs.

如果我们真的想让AI更可持续,我们必须超越大型语言模型(LLMs),思考如何使用各种不同的方法,这些方法在我们对抗气候变化的斗争中可能非常有用。

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And if we really want to make AI more sustainable, we have to be thinking beyond LLMs to using all sorts of different approaches that can be really useful in our fight against climate change.

因为当然,ChatGPT(ChatGPT)可以告诉你哪些国家签署了巴黎协定(Paris Agreement: 一项应对气候变化的国际法律协议),但它无法预测极端天气事件,这需要对天气模式和地理的物理学有深入理解。

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Because sure, ChatGPT can tell you which countries signed the Paris Agreement, but it can't predict extreme weather events, which requires an understanding of the physics of weather patterns and geography.

当然,Claude(Claude: Anthropic公司开发的一系列大型语言模型)可以解释气候变化的来龙去脉,但它无法帮助农民根据温度、湿度和历史天气模式决定何时播种。

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And sure, Claude can explain the whys and hows of climate change, but it can't help a farmer decide when to plant their crops based on temperature, humidity and historical weather patterns.

AI中还有许多其他方法,它们使用的能源更少,但在我们对抗气候变化的斗争中仍然非常有用。

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There are so many other approaches in AI that use less energy and still are really useful in our fight against climate change.

例如,最近一个由NASA(NASA: 美国国家航空航天局)资助的研究团队训练了伽利略模型(Galileo models: 一种用于地球观测的AI模型),这些模型可用于各种不同的任务,从作物测绘到洪水检测,而无需专门的硬件。

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For example, recently a team of researchers funded by NASA trained the Galileo models, which can be used for all sorts of different tasks, from crop mapping to flood detection, without needing specialized hardware.

这使得政府和非营利组织都能使用它们。

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This makes them accessible to governments and nonprofits.

雨林连接(Rainforest Connection: 一个利用AI进行森林保护的非营利组织)利用AI进行生物声学监测(bioacoustic monitoring: 通过分析声音来监测生物多样性和环境变化)。

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And Rainforest Connection uses AI to do bioacoustic monitoring.

这意味着他们监听世界各地雨林的声音,识别物种,甚至实时检测非法伐木的声音。

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That means that they listen to the sounds of rainforests across the world, identify species and even detect the sounds of illegal logging in real time.

他们的AI模型非常小,可以在旧手机上运行,并由太阳能电池板供电。

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Their AI models are so small, they run on old cell phones powered with solar panels.

开放气候修复(Open Climate Fix: 一个利用AI解决气候变化问题的非营利组织)利用AI分析卫星图像、天气预报和地形数据,以预测太阳能和风能设施的输出,从而使我们能够推动世界各地能源电网的脱碳化。

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And Open Climate Fix uses AI to analyze satellite imagery, weather forecasts and topography data to predict the output of solar and wind installations, allowing us to move forward to decarbonizing energy grids around the world.

这包括数据中心,因为目前它们主要由煤炭和天然气供电,但如果我们有合适的工具,它们也可以是可再生的。

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This includes data centers because currently they're powered by mostly coal and gas, but they could be renewable if we had the right tools.

用户赋能与立法监管:推动AI可持续发展

但另一个问题是,作为AI用户,我们不知道一个AI模型使用了多少能量,或者在使用它时排放了多少碳。

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But another problem is, as users of AI, we don't know how much energy an AI model is using or how much carbon it's emitting when we use it.

这意味着我们无法像选择食物或出行方式那样,在考虑可持续性的前提下做出决策。

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That means that we can't make decisions with sustainability in mind, as we do for the food that we eat or for how we get around town.

这促使我创建了AI能耗评分项目(AI Energy Score project: 一个评估AI模型能效的项目),在该项目中,我们测试了100多个开源AI模型,涵盖从文本生成到图像的各种任务,并根据能效为它们分配了1到5星的评分。

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This led me to create the AI Energy Score project, in which we tested over 100 open source AI models across a variety of different tasks, from text generation to images, and we assigned them scores from 1 to 5 stars based on energy efficiency.

假设你又忘记了加拿大的首都——是渥太华。

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So say that you forgot the capital of Canada again. It's Ottawa.

你可以使用像SmolLM(SmolLM: 一种小型语言模型)这样的模型,它只需0.007瓦时就能给出答案。

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You could use a model like SmolLM, which would use 0.007 watt-hours to give you that answer.

或者你可以使用像DeepSeek(DeepSeek)这样的模型,它需要多150倍的能量来给出相同的答案。

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Or you could use a model like DeepSeek, which would use 150 times more energy for that answer.

但遗憾的是,大型AI公司不愿意合作,用我们的方法评估他们的模型。

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But sadly, big AI companies didn't want to play ball and evaluate their models with our methodology.

老实说,我不能责怪他们,因为真相可能只会让他们难堪。

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And honestly, I can't blame them because the truth might only make them look bad.

因为目前我们缺乏必要的法律或激励措施来鼓励AI公司评估其模型的环境影响,或为此承担责任。

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Because currently we don't have the laws or incentives that we need to encourage AI companies to evaluate the environmental impacts of their models or to take accountability for them.

欧盟人工智能法案(EU AI Act: 欧盟出台的首部全面监管AI的法律)通过引入关于AI模型能源和资源使用的自愿披露,启动了这一进程。

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The EU AI Act started this process by introducing voluntary disclosures around the energy and resource use of AI models.

但在欧洲强制执行这项法案,并最终在世界各地制定类似的法律,将需要时间,而鉴于气候危机的速度和规模,我们根本没有那么多时间。

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But enforcing this act in Europe and eventually writing laws like this across the world will take time that we simply don't have, given the speed and the scale of the climate crisis.

共同塑造AI的替代未来

但好消息是,我们不必像几十年来一直依赖石油巨头(Big Oil)出售给我们的煤炭、塑料和化石燃料那样,继续依赖今天大型AI公司出售给我们的AI。

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But the good news is that we don't need to stay hooked on the AI sold to us by big AI companies today, as we've stayed hooked on the coal and plastic and fossil fuels that have been sold to us by Big Oil for all these decades.

事实上,与其相信AI的未来已经注定,即它由无限能量驱动的巨大大型语言模型(LLMs)组成,这些模型将以某种方式产生超人智能并奇迹般地解决我们所有的问题,不如我们一起夺回主导权,塑造AI的替代未来。

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And in fact, instead of believing that the future of AI is already written, that it consists of huge LLMs powered by infinite amounts of energy that will somehow result in superhuman intelligence and magically solve all of our problems, we can take back the wheel and shape an alternative future for AI together.

一个AI模型小而强大,可以在我们的手机上运行,完成它们应完成的任务,而无需庞大的数据中心。

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A future where AI models are small but mighty, where they run on our cell phones and do the task they're meant to do without needing huge data centers.

一个我们拥有所需信息,可以根据其碳足迹选择AI模型的未来。

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A future in which we have the information we need to choose one AI model over the other based on its carbon footprint.

一个存在立法,让大型AI公司对其对人类和环境造成的损害承担责任的未来。

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A future in which legislation exists that makes big AI companies take accountability for the damage that they're causing to people and the environment.

一个AI服务于全人类,而不仅仅是少数营利性科技公司的未来。

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A future in which AI serves all of humanity, and not just a handful of for-profit tech companies.

每一次提示、每一次点击、每一次查询,我们都可以共同重塑AI的未来,使其更具可持续性。

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With every prompt, every click and every query, we can reinvent the future of AI to be more sustainable together.

谢谢大家。

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Thank you.

(掌声)

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(Applause)

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

公司/组织: Meta, OpenAI, xAI, Hugging Face, NASA

产品/模型: LLMs, ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Claude, Colossus