关税博弈:行政权力与司法限制的拉锯
就在午夜过后,特朗普政府对80多个国家征收了10%的新关税,这是其激进且充满争议的贸易政策的最新举措。多年来,特朗普总统一直声称,提高关税对于促进国内制造业(Domestic Manufacturing:在本土进行商品生产制造的工业)和保护美国工业免受外国竞争是必不可少的。自重新执政以来,他反复使用关税手段,但这往往导致了法律诉讼。今年2月,最高法院(Supreme Court:美国最高联邦司法机构)废除了他此前实施的一项重大关税政策。因此,特朗普转而使用另一项有严格时间限制的贸易法作为过渡方案,而该法案于今日到期。
在建立这种行政防线后,具体的贸易博弈技巧如下:特朗普正在利用又一项不同的贸易法来实施这些新关税。从技术上讲,他此次加征关税所依据的法律允许总统对美国认定存在“不公平或歧视性贸易行为”的国家征收关税。但这是该特定条款首次被用于同时对数十个国家加征关税。批评人士指出,政府关于不公平贸易的新指控(包括指责其他国家在阻止强迫劳动方面做得不够)只是为了重新征收已被法院推翻的关税而找的便利借口。在接下来的几周内,预计政府还将推出更多关税,这叠加在最近的其他加税政策之上,例如特朗普本周早些时候宣布的对来自加拿大的许多商品征收50%的新关税。这波密集的加税举措呼应了去年的情形,当时特朗普首次开始推出不断变化的关税清单,扰乱了全球经济,并导致企业争相了解自身会受到何种影响。对于消费者而言,如果特朗普的整套新关税政策在预期的法律挑战中得以幸存,且进口商不得不支付这些新费用,耶鲁预算实验室(Yale Budget Lab:专注于宏观经济与政策预算分析的科研机构)的一项分析显示,美国国内家庭平均每年将面临约1,100美元的额外成本。
Original English
Just after midnight, the Trump administration imposed new tariffs of 10% on more than 80 countries, the latest move in its aggressive, controversial trade policy. For years, President Trump has argued that higher tariffs are necessary to encourage domestic manufacturing and protect American industries from foreign competition. Since retaking office, he's used them repeatedly, but that's often resulted in court challenges. In February, the Supreme Court struck down one major set of tariffs he'd put in place. So Trump turned to a different trade law as a stop gap that had a strict time limit though that was set to expire today. So now Trump is using yet another trade law to put in place these new tariffs. Technically the law he's basing the latest charges on allows the president to impose tariffs on countries the US says are engaging in unfair or discriminatory trade practices. But this is the first time this particular provision has been used to slap tariffs on dozens of countries simultaneously. Critics say the administration's new claims about unfair trade, including that other countries aren't doing enough to stop forced labor are simply a convenient way to reimpose levies that had been struck down in the courts. In the coming weeks, the administration is expected to roll out additional tariffs on top of other recent charges like a new 50% tariff on many goods from Canada that Trump announced earlier this week. The flurry of new charges echoes what happened last year when Trump first started rolling out an everchanging list of tariffs that royled the global economy and sent businesses scrambling to understand how they'd be affected. For consumers, if Trump's full slate of new tariffs survives expected legal challenges and importers have to pay the new fees, an analysis by the Yale Budget Lab found that American households will face an average of about $1,100 in additional annual costs.
能源溢价:美伊冲突与地缘僵局
地缘政治冲突正直接转化为市场的能源溢价。首先,全球油价昨日自5月份以来首次突破每桶100美元。此次油价飙升的背景是美国与伊朗恢复了每日的互相攻击,此前受伊朗支持的胡塞武装(Houthi Militia:活跃于红海及也门地区、由伊朗支持的武装组织)声称在红海击中了两艘沙特油轮。该组织一直威胁要对这些水域实施部分封锁,这可能会切断已成为通往霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz:波斯湾石油外运的关键海上咽喉)的替代路线——而霍尔木兹海峡目前实际上已被关闭。目前的石油成本比战争爆发前高出约40%。
在这种紧张局势下,外交与立法的角力也在同步进行:据《纽约时报》获悉,特朗普总统通过伊拉克调解人向伊朗发送了一份新的停火协议提议。然而,根据伊朗和伊拉克官员的说法,伊朗已于昨日拒绝了这一协议。提议的具体细节尚不清楚,但伊朗外长对一家官方媒体表示:“问题在于美国的态度,这种态度是不合逻辑、贪婪且具有控制欲的。”由于没有达成新的和平协议,美伊双方的袭击仍在继续,今天早上伊朗全境报告了多起爆炸事件,伊朗官员表示他们对该地区的美国军事目标发起了新袭击。与此同时,在华盛顿,众议院以214票赞成、208票反对的微弱优势通过了一项新法案,对特朗普针对伊朗的军事行动进行约束。民主党人与四名共和党人共同指示特朗普,要求其结束冲突,或获得国会授权(Congressional Authorization:宪法赋予国会决定是否进行战争的法定权力)以继续冲突。众议院和参议院上个月曾通过类似法案,但这些法案不具备法律效力,特朗普对此予以忽略。尽管如此,民主党人仍在继续推动此类投票,试图说服共和党人停止顺从总统,并要求结束这场不得人心的战争。根据上周公布的《华盛顿邮报》与益普索(Ipsos)联合民意调查,仅有29%的美国人支持这场冲突。
Original English
Now, a few quick updates on the war with Iran. First, global oil prices hit $100 a barrel yesterday for the first time since May. The spike came as the US and Iran have returned to daily attacks and after the Iranbacked Houthi militia said it hit two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. The group has been threatening a partial blockade of those waters, potentially choking off what has become an alternate route to the Straight of Hormuz, which is effectively closed. The cost of oil is now roughly 40% higher than it was before the war started. Also, the Times has learned that President Trump sent a new ceasefire proposal to Iran through mediators from Iraq. But according to Iranian and Iraqi officials, Iran rejected the deal yesterday. Details of the proposal are not clear, but Iran's foreign minister told a state media outlet that quote, "The problem is America's outlook, which is illogical, greedy, and controlling." With no new peace deal in sight, strikes by both the US and Iran continued, with explosions reported across Iran this morning, and Iranian officials saying they'd launched new attacks on US military targets in the region. Meanwhile, in Washington yesterday, on this vote, the yays are 214, the nays are 208. The House of Representatives narrowly passed a new measure pushing back on Trump's campaign against Iran. Democrats along with four Republicans directed Trump to either end the conflict or get congressional authorization to continue it. The House and the Senate passed similar measures last month, but they don't have the force of law, and Trump ignored them. Still, Democrats continue to push these kinds of votes as they try to convince Republicans to stop deferring to the president and demand an end to the unpopular war. According to a Washington Post Ipsos poll released last week, just 29% of Americans support the conflict.
教育危机:印度青年高学历失业潮与民主诉求
在印度,由一群日益愤怒和沮丧的年轻人领导的抗议活动已经蔓延了一个多月,并在本周达到高潮,数千人聚集在首都,警方则动用武力进行镇压。这场规模不断扩大和蔓延的抗议运动的中心,恰好就在新德里的《纽约时报》南亚分社对面。在这几天里,我们可以听到办公室大楼外不断响起催泪弹发射的声音。
在制度不公与生存困境的双重挤压下,青年的抗议诉求已超越了单一事件:抗议活动最初爆发于5月,起因是一场混乱的行政灾难——进入医学院的全国统一考试答案被泄露,迫使数百万学生重考。然而,这引发了更广泛的愤怒,抗议者指责这是政府对教育系统的管理不善,以及首相纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)执政下机会的匮乏。这场运动被称为Gen Z运动(Gen Z Movement:由20世纪90年代中后期到2010年代前期出生一代主导的抗议运动),在近年来该地区由青年主导的抗议活动(尤其是尼泊尔抗议者推翻该国政府以来)大多被冠以这一称号。他们的特点是年轻、擅长制作迷因,并带有一种痛苦甚至黑色幽默。他们也是承受某种特定危机最严重的群体,这种危机让高学历的年轻人面对一个根本没有足够空间的就业市场。从失业统计数据的分布中可以看出这一点:年轻人学历越高,就越难找到工作。印度最年轻的大学毕业生中有40%处于失业状态。这种情况已经持续了很久,但该国年轻且接受过教育的人口比例在不断增加,他们为这些教育投入的资金也变得越来越庞大。因此,陷入这种境地的印度人数量,以及他们和家庭所承受的债务杠杆,都达到了前所未有的高度。我交流过的一些学生,当被问及考试管理或抗议运动的具体诉求时,他们却首先表示“我们感觉生活在独裁统治之下”。他们开始谈论的是民主,而不是考试结果。他们感到这个时刻、这个让自己的诉求被听到的机会,正是他们一直在等待的。莫迪已经执政12年,人们已经很难记起这个国家敢于站出来对政府说“不”的时期了。
Original English
In India, protests led by a growing group of angry and frustrated young people have been spreading for over a month and this week they reached a head with thousands of people gathering in the capital and police cracking down with force. The epicenter for the protest movement which is growing and multiplying happens to be virtually across the street from the New York Times South Asia bureau here in New Delhi. We could hear the pop of tear gas cannons going off right outside the office building throughout these days. My colleague Alex Travelli covers India for the times. He says the protests first erupted in May after a kind of messy administrative disaster when the answers to the nationalized exam to get into medical school were leaked, forcing millions of students to retake the test. But that fed into more widespread anger about what protesters say is government mismanagement of the education system and a lack of opportunity under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The movement is being called a Gen Z movement. That's a term that all of these youthled protests around this part of the world especially have been called in recent years since Nepal protesters brought down their country's government. They are distinctive in being young, being very savvy with their memes, having a sense of bitter, sometimes dark humor. And they are also the Indians who are most bearing the brunt of a certain kind of crisis that pits very educated young people with a job market that just doesn't have room for them. You can see that when you look at how the unemployment statistics break down. The more educated and the younger people are, the less likely they are to have a job. 40% of India's youngest university graduates have nothing good to do. That's been going on for a long time. But the proportion of the country that is educated and young keeps growing bigger and bigger. And the amount of money that they've piled into these educations has become much much greater. So the number of Indians who are stuck in this position and the leverage on them and their families is like it's never been before. Some students I've talked to when asked about test administration or some of the smaller and concrete demands of the protest movement start instead by saying we feel like we're living under a dictatorship. They start off by talking about democracy, not about test results. There's a sense that this moment, this chance to make their complaints heard is a kind of thing that they've been waiting for. Modi has been in power now for 12 years and it's becoming hard to remember a time when the country felt like it could stand up and say no to the government.
消费转向:影院周边的“爆米花桶经济学”
最后,虽然关于电影院苦苦挣扎的讨论屡见不鲜,但却出现了一个非常意想不到的亮点:爆米花桶。比如,Cinemark独家推出的神偷奶爸爆米花桶,另外,还有人把《穿Prada的恶魔2》爆米花桶当做手袋挎在身上。
在实体娱乐消费转型的大趋势下,电影院周边正在发展成一种高溢价的潮玩经济:这种复杂的塑料创意制品莫名其妙地在人群中引发了轰动,人们为《奥德赛》中价值70美元的特洛伊木马复制品,或者即将推出的哈利·波特扫帚(在刷毛的一端装满奶油爆米花)而疯狂。该行业的精确专业术语是可收集特许经营容器(Collectible Concession Vessel:与电影 IP 深度联动的高溢价特制爆米花/饮料容器),它们已变得极其赚钱。AMC影院(AMC Theaters:全球最大的电影放映连锁公司之一)估计,今年仅爆米花桶就将带来1亿美元的收入。其他影院连锁店也看到了周边商品的显著增长。当设计优秀时,它们会迅速售罄。例如,想要买到一个售价50美元、外观酷似克里斯托弗·诺兰拍摄《奥德赛》时所用IMAX摄像机的爆米花桶,几乎需要极大的运气,因为它们几乎瞬间就被抢购一空。然而,并非所有设计都能成功,Pixar电影《Hoppers》的河狸坝爆米花桶就未受到粉丝的青睐。一位AMC高管告诉《纽约时报》:“看着这一切发生真的很有趣。”他补充道:“我绝不会说爆米花桶是人们去电影院的原因,或者电影主题周边正在拯救这个行业,但在过去几年里,它们确实成为了人们讨论的热门话题。”
Original English
And finally, in the US in the past few years, there's been a lot of talk about movie theaters struggling, but there's been one very unexpected bright spot. This is the Cinemark exclusive Grou popcorn bucket. It's so cute. This is popcorn buckets. Are you wearing the Devil Wars Product 2 popcorn bucket purse? Yeah, I am. It's called Fashion Sweetie. The bag also comes with a little charm of like a stiletto heel. The elaborate plastic creations have kind of inexplicably hit it big with people losing their minds for the $70 replica of a Trojan horse for the Odyssey or a soonto-bereleased Harry Potter broomstick that holds your buttery snack in the bristly end. The precise industry term is collectible concession vessel and they've become astonishingly lucrative. AMC Theaters estimates that buckets will generate $100 million in revenue this year. And other chains have seen big merch bumps, too. When the designs are good, they can sell out super fast. So, good luck trying to get a $50 bucket made to look like the IMAX camera Christopher Nolan used to film the Odyssey. Those were gone almost immediately. Not every design hits, though. The Beaver Dam buckets for the Pixar movie Hoppers were not a fan favorite. One AMC executive told The Times, "The whole thing has been wild to watch." Quote, "I would never suggest that popcorn buckets are the reason people go to the movies or that movie themed merch is saving the industry, but over the last few years, they've become a big part of the conversation."
时政速览:周五新闻问答与文化切片
现在是新闻问答时间。每周我们都会就近期报道过的一些新闻向大家提问,看看你是否能全部答对。本周我们以一个考验记忆力的速答环节开始,帮助读者快速梳理地缘政治与社会文化热点:
- 哪个国家在周一迎来了新首相,这是其10年内的第七任首相?答案是英国(Britain)。
- 中东的哪个组织表示将对红海实施部分封锁?答案是胡塞武装(Houthi)。
- 美国爆发的一起疫情中,处于核心地位的食物传播寄生虫叫什么?答案是环孢子虫(Cyclospora:引起腹泻等消化道疾病的单细胞寄生虫),记得清洗你的农产品。
- 周三,美国与沙特阿拉伯(Saudi Arabia)签署了一项具有争议的核协议。
- 同样在本周,白宫表示,由于升级和改进,这架飞机很快将暂时退役。答案是卡塔尔捐赠的新空军一号(Air Force One)。
- 本周速答最后一题:在经典电影主题曲中演奏萨克斯管部分的音乐家去世,享年94岁。请说出电影名。答案是1960年代经典电影《粉红豹》(The Pink Panther),由普拉兹·约翰逊(Plaz Johnson)演奏。
关于国内政治政策层面的问答: 最近,全美共和党议员一直在谈论橄榄园餐厅(Olive Garden)。为了使用其著名的“无限意面通票”,顾客现在必须出示照片身份证(Photo ID)。这迅速成为右翼的谈资,一些人声称橄榄园的安保比美国大选还要严格。然而这种比较有些风马牛不相及(或者说“扁面条对意大利饺”),因为美国有三十多个州已经要求选民出示身份证,而其余的州则通过其他方式核实身份。该热点体现了保守派政治人物利用日常消费场所政策来制造大选选民ID议题的宣传策略。
关于近年来在网络上走红的动物:
- 在澳大利亚因行为不端登上新闻的巨大海洋哺乳动物“尼尔”(Neil)是什么动物?答案是重达2200磅的象海豹(Southern Elephant Seal)。
- 2024年在纽约被当局查获并安乐死以检测狂犬病、引发广泛抗议和保守派政治讨论的网红宠物“花生”(Peanut)是什么动物?答案是松鼠(Squirrel)。
- 泰国动物园里红遍全球的网红“弹跳猪”(Moo Deng / Mu Dang)是什么动物?答案是侏儒河马(Pygmy Hippo),由于极度受欢迎,动物园不仅推出了服装周边,申请了名字商标,还发布了官方歌曲。
Original English
Now, time for the quiz. Every week, we ask you a few questions about stories The Times has been covering. Can you get them all? We're kicking off this week with a speed round that will put your memory to the test. How closely have you been paying attention to the news? Here we go. This country got a new prime minister on Monday, its seventh in just 10 years. That's Britain. This group in the Middle East said it's launching a partial blockade of the Red Sea. The Houthies. The food born parasite at the center of an outbreak in the US is called cyclospora. Wash your produce. On Wednesday, the US signed a contentious nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia. Also this week, the White House said that this will be temporarily taken out of service soon for upgrades and enhancements. They were talking about the new Qatari donated Air Force One. Last one of the speed round. The musician who played the iconic saxophone part on this classic movie theme died this week at age 94. Name the movie. That was the slinky theme to the 1960s classic The Pink Panther with Plaz Johnson on saxophone. Okay, next question. Nowadays, if you want to go to Olive Garden and get unlimited pasta, you got to... This isn't complicated stuff. Recently, Republican lawmakers across the country have been talking a lot about Olive Garden. Heck, you even need to present a... to utilize the Olive Garden neverending pasta pass. The chain restaurant has been invoked in interviews, House committee hearings, and even on the floor of the Senate, all for one specific reason. In other words, Madam Chair, we're protecting our bread sticks more than our... across this country. Your question, what hot button political issue are they using Olive Garden to try and make a point about? The answer? Voter ID. Republicans are drawing the comparison because the chain restaurant just announced a new rule around its popular neverending pasta pass. In order to use it, customers must show photo ID. That quickly became a talking point on the right as some rush to claim that Olive Garden has tighter security than US elections. The comparison's a little apples to oranges though or linguini to tortillini because three dozen US states already do require voters to show ID and the remaining states verify people's identities in other ways. And last question, this unusual yet adorable furball is none other than Jimothy. Recently, a very oddlyshaped raccoon prowling the streets of Seattle has become something of an internet icon. The creature joins a storied hall of other animals that have gone viral in recent years. We're going to play some clips here. You name the kind of animal that became a star. First, when Neil comes to town, everybody knows about it because this big boy is revved up. This ginormous marine mammal made headlines this summer in Australia for his unruly behavior. What is Neil? Neil the seal loves a wrestle and will break anything in his way. Neil is a 2200 lb southern elephant seal. Ready for the next one? He's very picky when it comes to food. Um so black walnuts are probably his favorite thing. Um, next in line is definitely avocado. This bushytailed critter named Peanut was a social media sensation before his story took a sad turn in 2024. Peanut was a squirrel. He'd been kept as a pet for 7 years before authorities in New York seized and euthanized him to test for rabies. That set off a complete uproar. The state agency involved faced a wave of bomb threats and conservative politicians jumped on the story saying Peanut's death was an example of government overreach. And last viral animal here, the hottest hottest new it girl on the planet. She's got chubby pink cheeks, a distinct potato shape. We're talking about Muen. This mammal named Mu Dang became a worldwide sensation a few years ago, turning her zoo in Thailand into a major tourist destination. Mudang is a what? She's a hippo, specifically a pygmy hippo who got so popular the zoo put out a line of hippo-themed clothing, said it would trademark her name, and even released an official Muang song. That is it for this week's news quiz.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
公司/组织: The New York Times, Supreme Court, Yale Budget Lab, AMC Theaters
媒体/书籍: The Pink Panther