Jiang 教授深度访谈:地缘政治大棋局、美国帝国的衰落与现实的本质 The Diary Of A CEO 2026-05-07

2024 年三大预测的精准验证

[主持人]: 在 2024 年,你做出了三个完全应验的预测,比如特朗普会发动对伊朗的战争。现在你又做出了一系列新的预测。

Original English

[Host]: In 2024, you made three predictions that have come perfectly true, like Trump would start a war with Iran. And you've made a series of new predictions.

[Jiang 教授]: 是的。我会逐一解释每一个预测。首先,我预测特朗普将获得第三个任期

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Yes. And I'll explain each prediction one by one. Okay. So, first I predict that Trump will get a third term.

[主持人]: 但这在宪法上不是非法的吗?

Original English

[Host]: But isn't this constitutionally illegal?

[Jiang 教授]: 并非如此。总统现在拥有紧急战争权力,因此他实际上可以推迟选举。我的第二个预测是,伊朗将陷入一场持久战,美国将实行全国征兵制。这意味着如果你在美国,年龄在 18 到 24 岁之间且是男性,你将自动被纳入征兵系统。他们刚刚通过了一项法律,规定从 12 月开始,你将被自动登记,这意味着你有义务去参战。没错。接下来的预测是,世界将走向一个 AI 平民国家(AI civilian state)。你在网上做的一切都在被记录,以查明并研究如何控制你。然后这是最受争议的预测,这相当糟糕,我会解释原因。我还会告诉你为什么这场战争只能导致第三次世界大战,为什么美国帝国极有可能崩溃,我还会向你展示俄罗斯人会怎么做,以及私人银行家是如何控制这一切的。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: It's not. The president now has emergency war powers and so he could actually delay the election. My second prediction is Iran is under a forever war and the United States will institute a national draft. Meaning that if you're between 18 to 24 in America and you're male, you'll be automatically put into the draft system and they just pass a law that says that starting in December, you will be automatically registered, which means you're obliged to go and fight. Exactly. Next, the world will move towards an AI civilian state. So everything you do online is being recorded to figure out and how to control you. And then this is the most controversial prediction. This is pretty bad and I'll explain why. And also I will tell you why this war can only lead to World War III, why there's a very strong possibility that the American Empire will collapse and also I'll show you what the Russians will do and how the private bankers are controlling it.

[主持人]: 我不被任何人掌控。

Original English

[Host]: I'm not owned by anybody.

[Jiang 教授]: 那只是你以为的。那么,让我们来谈谈那个。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: That's what you think. So, let's talk about that.

[主持人]: 这对我来说超级有趣。Jiang 教授,目前世界上发生了这么多事情,对于像我这样的普通人来说相当困惑。你在互联网上爆火,不仅是因为你能够揭开这一切疯狂现象的神秘面纱,还因为在 2024 年,你做出了三个完全应验的预测。有些人可能会说,不幸的是。

Original English

[Host]: This is super interesting to me. Professor Jiang, there's so much going on in the world at the moment that it's quite confusing for an ordinary person like me. And you've blown up across the internet because you've been able to demystify all of all of this craziness, but also because in 2024, you made three predictions that have come perfectly true. Some might say unfortunately.

[Jiang 教授]: 不幸的是,是的。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Unfortunately, yes.

[主持人]: 那三个预测是什么?

Original English

[Host]: What were those three predictions?

[Jiang 教授]: 我的第一个预测是特朗普将在 2024 年 11 月获胜。第二个预测是他将发动一场针对伊朗的战争。第三个预测是美国将输掉这场战争,而输掉这场战争将从根本上重塑地缘政治版图

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: My first prediction was that Trump would win in November 2024. Second prediction is that he would start a war against Iran. And the third prediction is that the United States would lose this war and in losing this war, this would radically reshape the geopolitical landscape.

特朗普为何对伊开战:石油美元的庞氏骗局

[主持人]: 你是怎么知道特朗普会和伊朗开战的?

Original English

[Host]: How did you know that Trump would start a war with Iran?

[Jiang 教授]: 简单的答案是:美国入侵伊朗是因为它别无选择。如果不入侵伊朗,它将失去其全球帝国。它的帝国纯粹基于美元,即石油美元(Petrodollar),这是一个庞氏骗局。如果它不入侵伊朗,那么人们就会选择不再与它贸易,人们会选择不购买美国国债。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: The simple answer is this. The the United States having invaded Iran because it has no choice in the matter. If it were not to invade Iran, it would lose its empire. Its empire is based purely on the US dollar, the petro dollar, which is a Ponzi scheme. If it did not invade Iran, then people would choose not to trade with it anymore. People would choose to not buy US treasuries.

[主持人]: 为什么?在很长一段时间里,这个系统运行得很好。但后来在 2022 年 2 月,俄罗斯入侵了乌克兰。

Original English

[Host]: Why? For the longest time, this system worked fine. But then in February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine.

[Jiang 教授]: 是的。但这本身不是问题,问题在于美国的反应。美国的反应是制裁俄罗斯,并将俄罗斯从 SWIFT 全球支付系统中剔除。它还命令欧洲人冻结超过 2000 亿美元的俄罗斯资产。这产生了一个问题,因为美元作为全球储备货币的最基本前提是它将保持政治中立。美国人保证了无缝的、政治中立的国际交换。

所以如果这种趋势继续下去,如果你不对俄罗斯采取行动,俄罗斯就会接管乌克兰,然后俄罗斯将与中国和伊朗建立联盟。如果你看地图上的这三个国家,俄罗斯、中国和伊朗,这就是整个亚洲大陆。然后他们可以做的是:他们可以说,好吧,美国是个恶霸。他们强迫我们按规则办事,如果我们不按规则办事,他们就会非常生气。所以,我们不和美国玩了,我们就在我们之间贸易。

然后他们可以建立一个欧亚铁路系统,将俄罗斯、伊朗和中国连接在一起。这将抵消美国的海权,因为 patrolling 和保护海洋的是美国的舰船。

然后发生的事情就是,世界、欧洲、中东、非洲、印度、东亚会看着这个贸易集团并想:“哇,这些俄罗斯人、伊朗人和中国人在使用黄金作为交换媒介。黄金是有价值的。而美国人使用美元作为交换媒介,这是没有价值的。那么,我是选择美国系统,还是这个新的 BRICS(金砖国家)系统呢?”

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Yeah. Okay. That was not the issue. The issue was the American response. The American response was to sanction Russia and remove Russia from the swift global payment system. It also ordered the Europeans to freeze over $200 billion in Russian assets. And there's a problem because the very basis for having the US dollar as the global reserve currency is that it would remain politically neutral. It it the Americans guaranteed seamless politically neutral international exchange. So if this trend continues, right, if you don't do anything about Russia, Russia would take over Ukraine and Russia then would build an alliance with China and Iran. If you look at these three countries on the map, Russia, China and Iran, this is the entire Asian continent. And then what they can do is this. They can say, okay, the United States is a bully. They force us to play by the rules. They get very angry if we don't play by the rules. So, let's not play with the United States anymore. Let's just trade amongst ourselves. And then what they can do is they can build a Eurasian railway system connecting Russia, Iran, and China together. And then what this would do is negate American sea power because it's American ships that patrol and protect the oceans. And then what would happen is the world, Europe, Middle East, Africa, India, East Asia would look at the trading block and think to themselves, "Wow, these guys, the Russians, the Iranians, and Chinese, they use gold as their medium of exchange. Gold is valuable. The Americans on the other hand use US dollars as the medium of exchange which is not valuable. So am I better off with the American system with this new bricks system?

[主持人]: 什么是 BRICS?

Original English

[Host]: What's bricks?

[Jiang 教授]: 这是一个首字母缩写。它代表巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非、中国。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: It's an acronym. It stands for Brazil, Russia, India, uh South Africa, China.

[主持人]: 所以我的理解对吗?因为伊朗、俄罗斯和中国在勾结,这威胁到了美国的统治地位,而这种统治地位是由世界使用美元作为主要贸易货币驱动的。

Original English

[Host]: So am I right in thinking because Iran, Russia and China were colluding, it threatened US dominance which is driven by the world using the dollar as the primary currency for trading.

[Jiang 教授]: 没错。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: That's correct. Okay.

[主持人]: 所以他们觉得需要入侵,因为这样他们就可以控制更多的中东地区。

Original English

[Host]: Okay. So they felt they needed to invade because then they can control more of the Middle East.

[Jiang 教授]: 对。通过攻击伊朗,会发生几件事。首先,中国现在从中东能源中被切断了。中国从中东获得 50% 到 60% 的能源需求。不仅是伊朗,还有卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯。很多人说中国现在依赖可再生能源、太阳能、风能,这在一定程度上是正确的。但请记住,中国是一个工业大国,所以它需要来自各地和所有人的能源。因此,中国从中东失去所有这些能源这一事实,给中国带来了长期的战略脆弱性。这是发生的第一件事。

第二件事是欧洲陷入了巨大的麻烦,因为由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,俄罗斯能源受到了制裁,所以欧洲更多地依赖中东来满足其能源需求,尤其是卡塔尔,而现在欧洲失去了所有这些石油。接着还有日本和韩国,这两个强大的东亚经济体也依赖中东获取能源。所以另一个问题是,如果你不从中东获取能源,你能从哪里获取呢?答案只有两个,要么是俄罗斯,要么是美国。

俄罗斯正处于战争状态。而正在发生的是,乌克兰无人机正在攻击俄罗斯的炼油厂和出口枢纽。因此,在短期内,世界别无选择,只能指望美国的能源需求。特朗普最近做了什么?他接管了委内瑞拉,那里拥有世界上最丰富的石油储量。他在威胁加拿大,威胁格陵兰岛、墨西哥、哥伦比亚。如果特朗普控制了整个西半球,全世界都不得不向特朗普乞求能源和资源,这既挽救了美元,也挽救了美国帝国。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Right. So by attacking Iran, certain things happen. Okay. The first thing that happened is that China is now cut off from Middle East energy. China receives anywhere between 50 to 60% of its energy needs from the Middle East. Not just Iran, but also Qatar and Saudi Arabia. A lot of people say that China today it's reliant on renewables, solar, wind, and that's true to a certain extent. But remember that China it is an industrial powerhouse. So it needs energy from everywhere and everyone. So the fact that China is losing all this energy from the Middle East presents China with a long-term strategic vulnerability. That's the first thing that happens. Second thing that happens is that Europe is in a lot of trouble because remember because of the Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian energy was sanctioned and so Europe relied more on middle on the Middle East for its energy needs especially Qatar and now Europe has lost all of this oil. So you and then you have Japan and South Korea. These two powerful East Asian economies are also reliant on the Middle East for its uh energy. So another question is if you're not getting your energy from the Middle East, where can you get your energy from? And there's only two answers, either Russia or the United States. Russia is at war. And what's happening is the Ukrainian drones are attacking Russian oil refineries and export hubs. So the world in the short term have has no choice but to look to America for its energy needs. And what did Trump do recently? He took over he took over Venezuela which has the world's greatest oil reserves. He's threatening Canada. is threatening Greenland, Mexico, Colombia. If Trump controls the entire Western Hemisphere, the entire world has to beg Trump for energy and resources and it saves both the US dollar as well as the American empire.

美国为何会输:意志、产能与堡垒地形

[主持人]: 作为你在 2024 年预测的一部分,我相信你说过美国会输掉这场战争,对吧?你为什么要预测美国会输掉这场针对伊朗的战争?

Original English

[Host]: So, as part of your prediction in in 2024, I believe it was, you said that the US would lose this war, right? Why did you predict that the US will lose this war with Iran?

[Jiang 教授]: 因为美国社会没有政治意志,没有制造能力,没有风险承受能力去在伊朗打这场仗。基本上,美国想尽可能廉价、容易、快速地打赢这场战争。特朗普真的认为,如果他派飞机去轰炸德黑兰并杀死哈梅内伊,他们就会直接投降。这字面上就是他进入这场战争的计划。他根本不关注文化,不关注伊朗人民的历史,对这个国家毫无尊重。当你那样做时,当你蔑视对手、低估对手,而你本人又不愿全身心投入战斗时,你注定会输。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Because the the American society does not does not have the political will, does not have the manu manufacturing capacity, does not have the risk tolerance to fight this war in Iran. Basically, America wants to fight this war as cheaply, as easily, and as quickly as possible. Right? So Trump it Trump really thought that you know if I sent my airplanes to strike Tran and kill the Aatollah they would just surrender. That was like literally his plan going into this war. He paid no attention to the culture. He paid no attention to the history of the Iranian people. He had absolutely no respect for for the nation. And when you do that, when you disrespect your opponent, when you underestimate your opponent, when you yourself are not willing to commit to the fight, you're going to lose.

[主持人]: 那么,伊朗的策略就是尽可能地拖延时间吗?既然他已经除掉了他们的领导人,伊朗又是如何应对的呢?你也认为特朗普觉得如果只是炸掉领导人,那么一切都会重新生成,然后就没事了吗?这其中的根本误解是什么?关于这场战争是如何开始的,目前有很多困惑。直到今天,实际上没人知道这场战争到底是怎么开始的。

Original English

[Host]: So, is Iran's game just to draw this out as long as they possibly can? H how are they, you know, cuz he's taken out the leaders? And do you also think that Trump thought that just if I just bomb the leader, then everything will sort of regenerate itself and we'll be fine. What was the sort of fundamental misunderstanding? There's a lot of confusion as to how this war started. Even today, no one actually knows how this war started.

[Jiang 教授]: 但我认为,考虑到特朗普的性格,他坚信如果他杀掉伊朗的领导层,那么他们将别无选择只能投降。他的“概念验证”当然是今年 1 月 3 日,三角洲部队进入委内瑞拉绑架了马杜罗,他们完全投降了。所以在特朗普的脑海里,他想重演委内瑞拉的情节。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: But I think that Trump, given his personality, he was convinced that if he killed the leadership of Iran, then they would have no choice but to surrender. And his proof of concept was of course on January 3rd of this year, Delta Force went into Venezuela, kidnapped Maduro and they completely surrendered. So in Trump's mind, he wanted to replay this the Venezuela scenario.

[主持人]: 而他没有意识到伊朗与委内瑞拉有着根本的不同。

Original English

[Host]: And he didn't realize that Iran is fundamentally different from Venezuela.

[Jiang 教授]: 简短的回答是,他是一个真人秀明星。他从视觉效果(optics)的角度思考,而不是地缘政治战略。长篇的回答是,美国军方已经变成了一个非常腐败和孤立的机构,它试图尽可能多地争取国会拨款,以资助军工复合体

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: The short answer is he is a reality TV star. He thinks in terms of optics. He doesn't think think in terms of like geopolitical strategy. The long answer is that the American military has become very corrupt and insular institution that is trying to generate as much congressional funding as possible in order to fund the military-industrial complex.

[主持人]: 他是否认为轰炸了伊朗,人民就会起义,选举出新政府,然后一切就结束了,他就能控制伊朗了?

Original English

[Host]: Did he think that he was going to bomb Iran, the people would rise up, they would elect a new government and that would be that and then he could control Iran?

[Jiang 教授]: 这正是他所想的。所以,我现在想做的就是看地图。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: That's exactly what he thought. So, what I want to do now is go to the map.

[主持人]: 好的。

Original English

[Host]: Okay.

[Jiang 教授]: 好的,展示一下他错在哪里。这是一张中东地图。关于这张图,首先要注意的是地形

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: All right. And show you what he got wrong. Okay. All right. So, this is a map of the Middle East. And the first thing to notice about this map is the topography.

[主持人]: 那是什么意思?

Original English

[Host]: What does that mean?

[Jiang 教授]: 就是有多少山。非常有趣的是,伊拉克和伊朗的地形完全不同。这一点很重要,因为在 2003 年,美国人入侵伊拉克,在大约两周内就赢得了战争。他们获胜的原因是采用了所谓的“震慑”(Shock and Awe)。“震慑”的核心理念在于,如果你斩断蛇头,蛇就会死。斩首行动。所以他们做的是进入巴格达,占领巴格达,政权崩溃,战争结束。他们能做到这一点是因为地形。如果你看伊拉克的地图,那里全是平原,全是沙漠。这意味着你可以直接派飞机飞进去,斩断蛇头,战争就结束了。你完全无法防御空袭,因为你身处沙漠。

现在让我们看看伊朗的地形。伊朗全是山。事实上,你可以认为伊朗是一座要塞。所以第一点是,伊朗可以选择打一场消耗战。什么是消耗战?消耗战是一场“认输”游戏。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: How many mountains you have? So this is what's really interesting is that the topography between Iraq and Iran are completely different. And this is important because two in 2003 the Americans invaded Iraq and they won the war in about two weeks. And the reason why they won the war is the Americans practiced something called shock and all. The idea of shock and all is that it is a military strategy that believes that if you cut off the head of the snake, the snake will die. The decapation strike. And so what they did was they went into Baghdad, seized Baghdad and the regime collapsed and the war was over. And they were able to do this because of the topography. If you look at the map of Iraq, it's all flat. It's all desert. Meaning that you can just fly in your planes, cut off the head of a snake, and the war is over. There's absolutely no way you can defend against air strikes because you're entirely a desert. Now let's go to let's look at topography of I of Iran and Iran. It's all mountainous. In fact, you can make the argument that Iran is a fortress. Okay. And so the first thing is that Iran can choose to fight a war of attrition. What's a war of attrition?

[主持人]: 什么是“认输”游戏?

Original English

[Host]: A war of attrition is a game of uncle. What's that?

[Jiang 教授]: 没错,“认输”游戏就是我们没有足够的权力彻底摧毁对方,所以我们尝试制造痛苦点、杠杆点,强迫你服从、喊“叔叔”(认输),对吧?因为伊朗太大了,拥有 9200 万人口,美国人和以色列人不可能摧毁伊朗。所以他们试图转而轰炸足够多的目标,让他们意识到抵抗是徒劳的并投降。这就是战略的全部范围。

但同样,这样做的问题在于:第一,伊朗太大了。第二,它是一个高山要塞,这意味着你可以将武器和军队藏在山里,这允许你对对手进行游击战策略。这正是伊朗现在正在做的,他们的地下导弹基地隐藏在山中,然后他们能够打击整个中东的目标,主要是美国的基地,但也包括对美国石油美元体系至关重要的能源设施。

所以这是一场“认输”游戏,美国人试图在伊朗国家制造尽可能多的破坏,而伊朗作为回应,正试图摧毁尽可能多的全球经济,以迫使世界向美国施压,要求停止战争。这就是我们现在面临的情况。

特朗普错掉的第二件事是全球经济是多么脆弱。因为伊朗人控制着所谓的霍尔木兹海峡。正如你在地图上看到的,这是一块非常狭窄的区域,只有大约 33 公里宽。你甚至可以游过霍尔木兹海峡。这之所以重要,是因为 GCC(海合会)出口了世界 20% 的能源。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Right. A game of uncle is where uh we don't have enough power to destroy each other. So what we try to do is we try to create pain points, leverage points to force you to submit to cry uncle, right? So because Iran is too large and that's 92 million people, it's impossible for the Americans and Israelis to destroy Iran. So what they're trying to do instead is bomb enough targets so that they recognize that resistance resistance is futile and surrender. Okay, that's the extent of the strategy. But again, the problem with this is that one, Iran is much too big. Number two is that it is a mountain fortress, which means that you can hide your weapons and your military inside mountains, right? Which allows you to conduct a guerilla warfare strategy against your opponent. And this is exactly what Iran is doing right now where their underground missile bases are hidden inside the mountains and then they're able to strike targets throughout the Middle East primarily American bases but also energy installations that are key to the American petro dollar system. And so it's a game of uncle where the Americans are trying to create as much damage as possible in the Iranian nation and Iran in response is trying to destroy as much of of the global economy as possible to force the world to pressure America to call the war off. So that's a situation we are facing right now. Second thing that Trump got got wrong is how vulnerable the global economy is. Because the Iranians control something called a shum moose. Okay. And as you can see on this map, it's a very very narrow piece of land. It's only about 33 kilometers across. You can actually swim across the straight of Humus. Okay. And why this is important is the GCC exports 20% of the world's energy.

[主持人]: G... 什么?

Original English

[Host]: The G the G what?

[Jiang 教授]: 海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会(GCC)。中东的某些国家在政治上结盟。它们包括卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、阿曼、伊朗、科威特。它们一直向世界出口能源,不仅是能源,还有许多能源生产的副产品,包括化肥,主要出口到东亚和印度。作为回报,它们换回粮食。大多数人没有意识到这一点,但 GCC 实际上进口了其 80% 到 90% 的粮食需求。原因是过去几十年它们变得如此富有,人口暴增,结果它们必须养活人口,但它们没有农业资源,也没有水资源。所以它们有两个主要的脆弱点:粮食和水。它们在该地区有很多海水淡化厂。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: The Gulf cooperative council. Okay. So the Gulf cooperative council are certain nations in the mil middle east that align politically. So they include Qatar, Saudi Arabia, uh the UAE, Oman, Iran, Kuwait. They they've been exporting energy but not just energy but also a lot of byproducts of of energy production including fertilizer to the world primarily East Asia and India. In return they've been getting um food back. So most people don't don't appreciate this but the GCC actually imports 80 to 90% of its food needs. And the reason why is that they become so rich these past few decades that the populations have um blown up and as a result they have to feed their population but they don't have agricultural resources. They also don't have water resources and so they have two major vulnerabilities which is food and water and they have a lot of desalination plants around the area and so

[主持人]: 什么是海水淡化厂?

Original English

[Host]: it's a desalination plant.

[Jiang 教授]: 海水淡化厂从海洋中提取咸水,然后通过电化学过程将其转化为人们可以使用的饮用水和农业用水。

所以正如你所看到的,整个地区极易受到来自伊朗的无人机和导弹攻击。这就是伊朗做的第二件事,也是特朗普没有预料到的。他没有预料到伊朗人会关闭霍尔木兹海峡。而伊朗人关闭海峡的方式仅仅是威胁要攻击任何想要穿过它的船只。原因是这些船只依赖海上保险才能运营。但如果存在被摧毁的风险且风险很高,那么你就买不到保险。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Okay. So a desalination plant takes salt water from the seas and then through an electrochemical process turns it into portable water that people can use uh for drinking purposes and for agricultural purposes. Okay. Right. So as you can see the entire area it is extremely vulnerable to drone and missile attacks from Iran. So that's the second thing that Iran has done which Trump did not expect. He did not expect that the Iranians would close off the strait of Hammoose. And how the Iranians were able to close of the shoo was just by threatening to attack any ships that wanted to cross it. The reason why is that these ships depend on maritime insurance in order to operate. But if there's a risk, a very high risk of being destroyed, then um you will not need to get insurance.

[主持人]: 你觉得他们在开始轰炸伊朗之前难道没有考虑过这一点吗?即伊朗拥有关闭这样一个对于运输化肥、能源等至关重要的水道的筹码。你觉得他们本该知道这些的,对吧?

Original English

[Host]: Okay. So, it's not that the Iranians have said to these ships you can't cross. It's just that the insurers refuse to allow these ships to cross because it's too dangerous. And Trump didn't you think they'd consider this before they started bombing Iran that Iran would have some leverage in shutting down such a critical piece of uh water for you know shipping fertilizer energy etc. You think that they would have known this right?

国家防务战略:把美国变成一个堡垒

[Jiang 教授]: 很多人会这么说:特朗普很笨、特朗普很冲动、他被以色列人误导了。有很好的证据支持这一点,但我还想给你看样东西,叫做《国家防务战略》(National Defense Strategy)。这是一份由战争部发布的文档,它解释了美国维持全球主导地位的战略。

在前言中,它说长期以来美国一直被世界欺负。美国是一个保护世界的国家,然而欧洲、东亚却利用了美国的慷慨。欧洲人不为自己的国防买单,所以他们把所有的钱都投入到福利和养老金系统中。中国人一直在给美国一份糟糕的贸易协定,偷取美国技术,制造产品再卖回给美国。所以几十年来美国一直处于劣势。而特朗普总统将通过执行一个“美国优先”的四点计划来改变现状。

第一点,美国要确保西半球的安全。为什么?因为西半球属于美国。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: So, that's what a lot of people say, that Trump's stupid, that Trump is hotheaded, that he was misled by the Israelis. And there's good evidence to support this, but I want to show you something, okay? It's it's called the National Defense Strategy. All right? And so, this is a document that was published by the Department of War. And in it, it explains what the American strategy to maintain global dominance is. And in the introduction, what it says is that for too long, America has been bullied by the world world. America is a nation that protects the world. Yet Europe, East Asia takes advantage of American generosity. The Europeans don't pay for their defense and so they put all this money into welfare into their pension system. The Chinese have been giving America a bad trade deal. The Chinese steal American technology and then use it to make products that they sell back to the Americans. So the Americans have been have been getting a really bad deal for decades. And President Donald Trump, he's going to change that by doing four things, right? The National Defense Strategy calls for a fourpoint program to put America first. The first thing that um America is going to do is going to secure the Western Hemisphere. Why? Because the Western Hemisphere belongs to the United States.

[主持人]: 当你说西半球时,指的是什么?包括加拿大吗?

Original English

[Host]: When you say the Western Hemisphere, what do you mean? What what region is that? Is that Canada as well? And

[Jiang 教授]: 如果你看地图,我们可以把地图分为东半球和西半球。这里的每一部分,包括格陵兰岛、加拿大、墨西哥,这个区域的每一部分都属于美国。因此,未经美国许可,不向美国缴纳“贡金”,你就不能与这些国家中的任何一个进行贸易。这就是为什么美国今天将三分之一的海军资产停泊在加勒比海的原因。这是为了告诉中国人和俄罗斯人:退后。如果你想来这里,要么交贡金,要么被攻击。

这是战略的第一点。西半球属于美国。他们称之为“门罗主义”的特朗普修正版。

第二点是美国想要重新构想与其盟友的关系。基本上,北约需要为自己的防务买单。北约需要去乌克兰对抗俄罗斯。美国会提供支持,提供武器和资金,但北约需要做更多的工作。在东亚,韩国和日本需要更好地遏制中国。

第三点是专门针对中国的。核心理念是美国不想摧毁中国,不想羞辱中国,但中国需要被安置在它该在的位置。中国需要尊重美国的实力和触角。美国将通过经济绞杀来实现这一目标。看中国地图,它的大部分贸易都经过所谓的马六甲海峡。马六甲海峡是世界上最重要的海上咽喉要道。美国所要做的就是把航母停在马六甲海峡,中国就会失去 90% 的能源进口。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: so if you look at the map, we can divide we can divide the map into the eastern hemisphere. Okay. And the western hemisphere. Okay. So everything over here, everything including Greenland, including Canada, including Mexico, every part of this area belongs to United States. Therefore, you cannot trade with any of these countries without American permission, without paying a tribute to the Americans. And that this is why that the Americans have parked onethird of their naval assets in the Caribbean today. It's to it's to tell the Chinese and the Russians, back off. If you want to come here, you either pay a tribute or you'll be attacked. Okay, that's the first point of the strategy. The Western Hemisphere belongs to America. Something that they call the Donro doctrine. Okay, which is Trump's corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. And so that's point one. Point two is that America wants to re-imagine its relationship with its allies. Basically, NATO needs to pay for its own defense. NATO needs to go fight Russia in Ukraine. America will provide support. It'll provide weapons and financing, but NATO needs to do more work. And in East Asia, South Korea and Japan need to do better job of keeping China in check. Okay, point two. Point three is specific to China. And the idea is the United States does not want to destroy China. The United States does not want to humiliate China, but China needs to be put in its place. China needs to respect the power and the reach of the United States. And how the United States is going to do this is by strangling China economically. Right? So you look at at a map of China, most of its trade goes to something called the sh of Malaa. And the sh of Malaca is the most important maritime choke point in the world. All America has to do is park naval carriers inside the Jamaala and China will lose 90% of its energy exports.

[主持人]: 但如果他们把船停在那里,中国还是会穿过去吧?不吗?

Original English

[Host]: But if they parked them there, China would still go through. No.

[Jiang 教授]: 不。因为你必须经过马六甲海峡。美国有一个所谓的“第一岛链”。第一岛链阻止了中国到达太平洋。第一岛链包括韩国、日本、台湾、菲律宾和马来西亚。这阻断了中国向太平洋延伸。所以为了进行贸易,它必须经过马六甲海峡。通过马六甲,它可以到达印度、非洲和中东。因此,通过在马六甲海峡部署航母,就形成了一个封锁线,中国必须缴纳“过路费”才能进入。

第四点是复兴、加强美国的国防制造业。超级加倍美国的国防工业基础。这完全正确。这意味着五角大楼几周前去了底特律,找了福特和通用汽车,说:“你们知道吗?因为伊朗的这场战争,我们可能需要你们停止造车,开始制造更多弹药。”

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: No. Because you have to go for the straight Maka. So America has something called the first island chain. Okay. The first island chain prevents China from reaching the Pacific Ocean. The first island chain includes South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Malaysia. That blocks China from reaching out into into the Pacific. So in order for it to access trade, it has to go through the SH of Malaca. And for the Malaka, it can access uh India, Africa, and the uh Middle East. Okay. Right. And so by positioning naval carriers inside the Shalaka, it creates a blockade and China would have to pay a toll in order to access um the Shalaka. And the fourth one and the fourth one is to um rejuvenate reinvigorate America's defense manufacturing sector. So supercharge the US defense industrial base. That's exactly correct. Yes. All right. So, what this means is that the Pentagon a few weeks ago went to Detroit and talked to Ford and General Motors and said, "You know what? Because of this war in Iran, we might need you to stop making cars and start making more munitions."

[主持人]: 你怎么知道他们说了这些?

Original English

[Host]: How do you know they said that?

[Jiang 教授]: 他们公开发表了。真的。是的。福特和通用汽车对此很高兴,因为武器的利润率比汽车高得多。那是五角大楼,你可以随心所欲地开价,他们都会买单。而造车是面向消费者市场的,他们可能不会买你的车。所以如果你是福特或通用,世界上最好的交易就是为五角大楼制造武器,去打这些可以永远持续下去的中东战争。

所以我们现在的处境是,看新闻或听很多人说,特朗普是个白痴,这场伊朗战争毫无意义。但是,如果你去读一下战争部网站上的《国家防务战略》(任何人都可以免费下载阅读),它是一份非常清晰的路线图,说明了美国为了维持帝国霸权需要做什么。

让我们总结一下要点。第一大点是维持对西半球的控制,并建立一个“美国堡垒”。这就是为什么他入侵委内瑞拉,并说要入侵古巴的原因。还有格陵兰岛。看看他过去一年提到的所有国家:格陵兰岛、加拿大、墨西哥、委内瑞拉、古巴、哥伦比亚、尼加拉瓜、洪都拉斯。全是西半球。

第二点是在全世界制造“分而治之”。想象一下:在欧洲,北约在乌克兰对抗俄罗斯;在东亚,中国对抗韩国和日本;在中东,伊朗对抗与以色列结盟的 GCC。美国做什么?美国现在可以向所有人出售武器、资源并提供融资。这将回到第三次世界大战的状态。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: They published it. Yes. Really? Yes. And they're happy doing this because the profit margins are much greater for weapons than for for cars. This is a Pentagon. So you can charge them as much as you want and they'll pay for it. Whereas you make cars, it's for the consumer market and they may not buy your cars. Right. So So you're like Ford or General Motors, the best deal in the world is to go make weapons for the Pentagon to fight these wars in the Middle East that can go on for forever. So, so, so we have the situation where, okay, look, if you read the news, if you talk to a lot of people, Trump's an idiot, and this war in Iran makes no sense at all. But then, if you just read the National Defense Strategy that is on the Department of War website, and anyone can go there and download it for free and read it themselves, it's a very clear road map of what America needs to do in order to maintain imperial hijgemony. And so let let's let let's just summarize the major points. The first major point is to maintain control over the western hemisphere and create a fortress America. Which is why he invaded Venezuela and he says he's going to invade Cuba. Exactly. And also Greenland. Look at all the countries that he's named over the past year. Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua, Honduras. It's all the Western Hemisphere, right? And they're all together. Second point is to create divide and rule all around the world. So imagine a situation where in Europe, NATO fights Russia in Ukraine. In East Asia, China fights South Korea and Japan. In the Middle East, Iran fights the GCC allied with Israel. What does America do? America can now sell sell sell everyone weapons and resources and finance it. This would be back to World War III.

[主持人]: 但总体而言这也会让他们变得更弱。

Original English

[Host]: But it makes them weaker as well generally.

[Jiang 教授]: 这正是重点所在。然后发生的事情是,美国欠下的 40 万亿美元债务将会消失,因为它会被世界吸收。所以你可以说特朗普是个白痴,但如果你看地图,看美国希望这个世界版图如何演变,这就完全说得通了。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: That's the point. Right. And then what would happen is that $40 trillion that America has in debt, it would disappear because it would be absorbed by the world. Right. So you can say look Trump's an idiot. But if you actually look at a map and how America wants this map, this world map to play out, it makes perfect sense.

第三次世界大战:各国的宏大战略与棋局

[主持人]: 所以这场战争对特朗普来说进展顺利。你说过你预测他会输掉战争,对吧?你对“输掉战争”的定义是什么?

Original English

[Host]: So the war is going well for Trump. Really? Yes. But you said in your prediction that he would lose the war, right? What's your definition of lose the war?

[Jiang 教授]: 输掉战争意味着美国会派遣地面部队。伊朗将在这场入侵中幸存下来,这将在政治上造成巨大的破坏,导致美国国内爆发混乱,美国被迫撤退,并被迫从中东撤军。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Losing the war means that America would send ground troops. Iran would survive this invasion and this would be so politically damaging that chaos breaks out the United States and the US guard invasion is forced to retreat and the United States is forced to retreat from the Middle East.

[主持人]: 你仍然认为这会发生吗?

Original English

[Host]: And you still think that's going to happen?

[Jiang 教授]: 我仍然认为这会发生。让我解释为什么必须派遣地面部队。在战争的第一阶段(从 2 月 28 日开始,持续了约 6 周),意图是斩首政权。通过打击德黑兰以及整个伊朗的军事基地和设施来实现。这就是美国人所说的“震慑”,目的是强迫伊朗人认输。但事实并非如此。伊朗人的回应是攻击 GCC 境内的美国基地,关闭霍尔木兹海峡,并动员了他们的人民。所以伊朗人没有投降,而是加倍下注。这是战争的第二阶段。现在我们进入了第三阶段,特朗普基本上认定斩首行动行不通。所以特朗普要做的就是对伊朗实施海军封锁

问题在于,如果特朗普明白斩首行不通,那么利用博弈论(Game Theory)...

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: I still think that's going to happen. Yes. Okay. So, let me explain to you why ground troops has to be sent. Okay. All right. Okay. So, in phase one of this war which started February 28th which lasted for about 6 weeks, the intention was to decapitate the regime. And you do that by striking Tran and you do that by striking the military bases in installations throughout Iran. It's it's what the Americans call sharp and all. And the point is to force the Iranians to call uncle. But that's not what happened. To give up basically because what the Iranians did was they responded by attacking US bases throughout the GCC. They closed off a straight of Humus and they rallied their people. Okay. So rather than surrender, the Iranians basically double down. Okay, that's phase two of the war. Now we've gone to phase three of the war where Trump has basically decided that decapation does not work. And so what Trump's going to do is he's going to impose a naval blockade on Iran's naval blockade. Right? And so the question then is if Trump understands that decapitation does not work then using game theory.

[主持人]: 什么是博弈论?

Original English

[Host]: What's game theory?

[Jiang 教授]: 博弈论认为整个世界受规则和激励措施支配。一旦你理解了规则和激励,你就能预测人们的行为,因为人们总是会根据自己的最佳利益行事。在地缘政治中,民族国家是个人参与者,每个国家都在努力利用其资源和优势来迫使其他国家服从。

特朗普意识到伊朗人关闭了海峡,但不仅如此,伊朗人还利用关闭海峡来资助战争,意味着现在他们强迫船只支付 200 万美元的过路费才能穿过。这对伊朗人来说是一个巨大的优势。所以特朗普说:“不,我要封锁你的封锁”,抵消伊朗在关键航道上的优势。所以再次利用博弈论思考,我想讨论一下美国人会怎么做来迫使伊朗人屈服。

我认为有一个三点战略。第一是经济勒死(Economic strangulation),基本上摧毁国家资助战争的能力。到目前为止,伊朗有两种资助战争的方式。第一是石油出口,伊朗 90% 的石油运往中国。这就是哈尔克岛(Kharg Island),伊朗 90% 的石油出口海外都经过这里。第二种机制是霍尔木兹海峡收取的过路费。所以你必须消除这两种金融机制。你可以通过海军封锁关闭这两者。

战略二是需要在伊朗国内制造尽可能多的混乱。你想把这个要塞变成监狱。方法是在国内挑起民族紧张关系。如果你看伊朗的民族分布图,你会发现波斯人主要分布在国家中部的这个区域。但在边境地区,主要是少数民族。有两个少数民族一直让政府很头疼。第一个是东南部巴基斯坦边境附近的俾路支人(Balochs),他们有反抗政府的历史。第二个是西北部的库尔德人

所以如果你是美国政府或军方,你的战略是在这些地区建立前哨作战基地(Forward Operating Base)。通过插入地面部队来控制一个区域,以便重新补给并进一步推入领土。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Game theory is the belief that all the world is governed by rules and incentives. And once you understand the rules and incentives, you can predict how people behave because people will always behave according to their best interest. So in geopolitics, the nation states are individual players and each nation state is trying to use its resources and um its advantages in order to pressure other nation states to obey it. Okay, so Trump recognizes that the Iranians have closed off the circle of moves, but not only that, but the Iranians have also used the circle of moves to finance the war, meaning that now they're forcing ships to pay a toll of $2 million in order to cross it. And so this is a huge advantage for the Iranians. And so Trump has said, "No, I'm going to blockade your blockade, negating Iran's advantage over the certical moves." So we think about it again using game theory. I want to discuss what the Americans will do in order to force uh the Iranians to capitulate. Okay. So I would say there's a three point strategy. The first strategy is economic strangulation. you basically destroy the state's capacity to finance the war. And there are two ways that Iran is financing the war so far. The first is using oil exports, right? 90% of Iran's oil goes to China and um this is Car Island. Okay, this this little spot here is Car Island. And this is where Iran will export 90% of its oil overseas. That's the first mechanism. Second mechanis mechanism is sit who moves where the RA now can collect tolls right. So what you have to do is you have to eliminate both of these finance mechanisms. You can close off both with a name of locket. Okay. So that's strategy one. strategy two is you need to create as much chaos within Iran as possible. You want to turn this fortress into a prison. And the way you do that is by stirring up ethnic tensions in the country. So if you look at a map, ethnic map of Iran, what you'll discover is that the Persian people are primarily in this area in the middle of the country. But if you go to the borderlands, okay, the border areas, it's it's primarily ethnic minorities. And there are two ethnic minorities in the country that have always been problematic for the government. The first problematic people are of color bullocks here uh in south east uh Iran by the Pakistani border. They have a history of insurgency against the government. Okay. Second people that have been problematic are the Kurds who are primarily in the uh northwest of the country. So if you are the US government, if you are the military, your strategy is to establish foreign operating bases in these areas. A foreign operating base is uh a spearhead of the military where you insert ground troops to hold an area. Okay. So in order to resupply in in order to push further into the territory.

[主持人]: 那么,前哨作战基地就是美国将部队派往西北部和东南部,然后以此为基础向伊朗推进吗?

Original English

[Host]: Okay. So a forward operating base would be the US putting troops into the the northwest and the southeast and then using that as a way to move forward into Iran.

[Jiang 教授]: 不,你不想向伊朗内部推进,因为它太大了,你没有足够的兵力。你想做的是:在这些地区建立基地,以武装和训练民族叛乱分子。同时也资助他们。你这样做是因为想把他们变成“炮灰”,逼迫伊朗军队做出回应。如果他们派出军队来镇压这些叛乱,那太好了,因为现在你可以利用空权来大规模消灭伊朗军队。你现在的问题是伊朗军队躲在山里,所以你想强迫他们出现在空旷地带。因此你想在该国制造尽可能多的紧张点,迫使伊朗军队做出反应。明白吗?

第三个战略是勒死首都德黑兰,因为那里是政治精英所在地,是一座拥有 1000 万人口的城市。勒死德黑兰的方法是切断他们的三样东西:水、电、粮食。攻击发电厂、攻击水库、攻击向首都运送粮食的铁路。当你那样做时,这 1000 万人就会起义反对政府并要求政治解决方案,因为他们需要水电粮才能生存。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: No, you don't want to move forward into Iran because it's too large. You don't have enough forces to move into Iran. What you want to do is this. You want to establish port operating bases in these areas in order to arm and train ethnic insurgents. Okay, that you can also finance as well. And you do this because you want to turn them into cannon fodder. You for you have to force a response from the Iranian military, right? So if they come in with the army in order to quell these rebellions, that's great because now you can use your air power to decimate the Iranian military. Your problem right now is Iranian military is hiding inside mountains. And so you want to force them out in the open. And so you want to create as many points of tension in the country as possible to force the Iranian military to respond. Right? Does that make sense? Okay. And now your third strategy is to strangle the capital Tran because that's the that's where the political elite are a city of 10 million people. And the way you strangle Tran is you deny them three things. You deny them water, electricity, and food. So you attack power plants. you attack reservoirs, you attack railways that bring um food into the capital. And when you do that, these n these 10 million people in Iran will now oppose the government and demand a political settlement because they need food, uh water, electricity to survive, right?

[主持人]: 伊朗有政府吗?

Original English

[Host]: Is there a government?

[Jiang 教授]: 目前关于伊朗领导层的真实程度还存在争议。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Right now, there's a debate as to the true extent of leadership in Iran.

[主持人]: 因为特朗普最近的采访中,他声称伊朗领导层正在内斗,但在其他采访中他又说他们甚至不知道在跟谁打交道。

Original English

[Host]: Because Trump's recent interviews, he's saying he's he's claiming that the the leadership in Iran are fighting themselves, but then he's also saying in other interviews that there's they don't even know who they're dealing with.

[Jiang 教授]: 没错。伊朗有一个非常不寻常的政治体系,它是一个政教合一(Theocracy)的国家。理论上由被称为穆拉(Mullahs)的神职人员运行,然后有一个平行的国家机构负责日常官僚事务。穆拉控制着国家的道德,也控制着外交事务。

重要的是,伊朗有两套平行的军事结构。你有军队,但你也有 IRGC(革命卫队)。革命卫队只忠于穆拉。

所以你在国内有这种分歧,革命卫队将此视为一场宗教战争,是一场杀死“大撒旦”的十字军东征,他们想要战斗到底。“大撒旦”就是美国帝国。

革命卫队不仅把美国视为大撒旦,还把这视为一场全球冲突,因为他们有支持其信念的代理人,包括黎巴嫩的真主党、也门的胡塞武装,当然还有巴勒斯坦的哈马斯。此前叙利亚也是他们“抵抗之弧”的一部分,但叙利亚已被美国人和以色列人推翻。所以革命卫队将这视为一场全球性的宗教十字军东征。

而德黑兰的政治领导层看法完全不同。他们认为这主要是美伊之间的冲突,他们希望尽快达成政治解决方案。换句话说,这些停火谈判其实都是在作秀,因为归根结底,即使美国人给了伊朗人想要的一切,革命卫队仍然控制着战场,他们不会轻易投降或寻求和平。

伊朗的另一个问题是革命卫队实行所谓的“马赛克战略”(Mosaic Strategy)。核心理念是:你知道美国人拥有人类历史上最有效的军队,你知道他们实行“震慑”和“斩首行动”,你如何应对?你通过去中心化来应对。全国 31 个省份拥有各自本地化的指挥和控制系统。基本上他们有 31 支不同的军队,拥有各自的领导层。这样做是为了应对美国人拥有的世界上最先进的监视技术。他们可以轻松识别领导层并追踪杀死你,所以唯一的办法就是分散领导层,遍布全国,让美国人杀不完。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Exactly. Iran has a very unusual political system in that um it's a theocracy. It's a religious government. It's run by clerics call them moolas. in theory and then there's a parallel system the state apparatus that actually takes care of day-to-day bureaucracy and that's secular. Uh the mas control the morality of the country they also control foreign affairs. So basically um this is important because Iran has two parallel military structures. You have the military but you also have the IRGC. The IRGC are only loyal to the mullas which is the religious part. Exactly. All right. So you have this divide in the in the country where the IRGC see this as a religious war as a crusade to kill the great Satan and they want to fight to the death and the great Satan is the great Satan is the American Empire. Uh which is a source of the misery that I has been suffering for the past few decades. And they already see not only do they see America as great Satan, but they also see this as a global conflict because they have proxies that support their beliefs, including here in Lebanon, Hezbollah, including here in Yemen, the Huies, and of course in Palestine, Hamas. Okay. and and before Syria was also part of their axis of resistance but Syria has been toppled by the Americans and and Israelis. So the IRGC see this as a religious crusade that is global in nature. The political leadership in Tran sees it completely different. They see this as a conflict primarily between America and Iran and they want to reach a political settlement as soon as possible. And so in other words, these ceasefire negotiations, it's really all for show because at the end of the day, even if the Americans gave the Iranians everything they wanted, the RTC still controls um the battlefield and they would not um surrender or or seek peace terms lightly. Another problem in this situation is the RTC practice something called the Mosiaak strategy. Mosiaak. The idea of the Moak strategy is okay you know the Americans the most effective military ever in human history. You know that they practice shock and all decapitation. So how do you respond to that? You respond to that using decentralization. 31 provinces in the country with their own command and control that is localized. So basically they have 31 different armies that have their own leadership. That's correct. Okay. And when you do this it's a fight to the finish.

[主持人]: 他们为什么这么做?中央政府如何协调伊朗的 31 支不同军队?如何向他们发布信息?我听到彼得·海格塞斯在一次采访中评论说,信鸽飞到军队那里需要一些时间。他基本上是在说,当停火协议达成时,仍然有一些导弹在飞,那只是因为告诉 31 支不同的军队停下来需要很长时间。

Original English

[Host]: Why did they do that? They did it because the Americans possess the most sophisticated surveillance technology in the world. meaning they can easily identify the leadership and they can easily track you down and kill you. So the only way around that is to decentralize the leadership and spread around the country so that the Americans cannot kill the everyone. How does the central government orchestrate 31 different armies in Iran? How does it get a message out to them? I heard Peter Hexf make a a comment in one of the interviews saying that it takes some time for the pigeons to get out to the armies. And what he was saying basically is that um when the ceasefire was called and there was still some um missiles flying, he was basically saying that's just because it takes a long time to tell the 31 different armies to stop.

[Jiang 教授]: 现实情况是,在马赛克战略下,其实根本无法协调这 31 项不同的军事行动。因为马赛克战略旨在战斗到最后一刻。除非你完全控制中东,美国人被迫撤离,以色列屈服,否则你不会停下来。

让我们详细说说什么是马赛克战略。其核心是他们有一种末世论(Eschatology)。末世论是对世界应有的样子以及我们如何走向那个世界的理解。对于伊朗人来说,他们的末世论是,伊朗为了发挥真正的潜力,需要成为穆斯林世界的主人。它需要取代沙特阿拉伯,因为沙特阿拉伯与大撒旦(美国帝国)结合得太紧密了。麦加和麦地那处于大撒旦的影响之下,为什么沙特会有美军基地?所以这场战争从他们的角度来看,是一个推翻沙特阿拉伯及整个 GCC 腐败领导层的绝佳机会,推翻整个穆斯林世界的腐败政府,并建立将安拉置于首位的政府。所以他们不会退出。这场战争一旦开始,只能导致第三次世界大战。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: The reality is that given a MOS strategy, there's actually no way to coordinate these 31 different military operations. Because the Musk strategy was meant to was meant to fight to the bird of air. You do not stop until you completely control the Middle East and the Americans have been forced out of the Middle East and Israel has been humbled. Okay, so let's go into the specifics of what the Mosak strategy is. The idea is that they have an esquetology. Okay. So, esquetology is an understanding of how the world should be and how we move towards this world. And for the Iranians, their esquetology is that Iran in order to reach its true potential needs to be master of the Muslim world. It needs to displace Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia it's too aligned with the United States which is the great Satan. Mecca and Medina are under the influence of the great Satan because why are there US military bases in Saudi Arabia? So this war from their perspective, it's a great opportunity to overthrow the corrupt leadership of Saudi Arabia, but not only Saudi Arabia, but the entire GCC. Overthrow the corrupt governments of the entire Muslim world and install governments that put God Allah first. So they're they're not going to quit Iran. This war once it starts can only lead to World War III.

[主持人]: 这是一个很重的声明。作为一个概率,你会给这个说法分配多少概率?

Original English

[Host]: That's a strong statement to make. As a probability, okay, what probability would you assign to that claim?

[Jiang 教授]: 我会把它定得相当高。在 80% 到 90% 的概率之间。基本上是确定的。是的。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: I would put it pretty high. Anywhere between 80 to 90% probability. Basically certainty. Yes.

全球大棋局:四大玩家的战略解析

[主持人]: 跟我解释一下那是如何发生的。

Original English

[Host]: Explain to me how that happens.

[Jiang 教授]: 好的。我们需要退后一步,理解正在发生的全球动态。我们需要理解所涉及的不同参与者的宏大战略(Grand Strategy)。

我会向你解释每个国家是如何看待自己在世界中的位置的。为了做到这一点,我要使用一副国际象棋。

好的,这是国王。这是美国的政治制度——民主。民主制有一定的优缺点。它是充满活力的、创造性的、灵活的。但它最终的弱点是极化(Polarization),如今不同的政治派别拒绝和睦相处,这可能会爆发内战。

所以你击败美国的方式不是征服它,你永远无法征服美国。击败美国的方式是迫使它进入内战,从而杀死国王。你希望民主党和共和党形成不同的派系并打内战。你想制造如此严重的政治极化,以至于不同的精英派系对彼此动武。

现在看看王后。王后就是我所说的美国的宏大战略。美国如何维持其对整个世界的控制。宏大战略已经在《国家防务战略》中概述了:建立“美国堡垒”,然后在全世界制造混乱,这样我们就可以向所有人出售武器和资源。

一旦你有了宏大战略,你就需要实施它。所以你需要攻击向量。它们是车、象和马。让我们看看美国的三个主要攻击向量。首先是美国的技术霸权。为了实现其宏大战略而使用的工具。包括空中优势。然后是美元,因为美元允许你为一切融资,每个人都想要美元。第三个攻击向量是宣传(Propaganda),意味着美国控制着世界上最强大的媒体,包括《纽约时报》、CNN,因此他们可以控制世界的叙事。

现在他们使用(Pawns)。兵是可以为了实现宏大战略而牺牲的武器。在美国的情况中,兵就是盟友。意味着英国、欧洲、韩国和日本。还有整个西半球。

最反对美国这一宏大战略的人是俄罗斯人。在俄罗斯系统中,国王是独裁政权。独裁是好的,因为它允许果断、决心、长远思考。那就是普京。坏处是如果这个人死了,就会出现继承危机。

对于俄罗斯人来说,宏大战略是所谓的“第三罗马”战略。俄罗斯人相信他们是罗马帝国的真正继承者。历史上曾有两个罗马,第一个罗马,然后迁往君士坦丁堡,而莫斯科注定要成为第三个罗马。莫斯科想要在其领导下团结整个东正教世界。

俄罗斯的攻击向量是什么?第一是地形,国家的广阔使其几乎不可战胜。想想二战时的“巴巴罗萨行动”,德国人投入了数百万人,也没走多远。所以地理非常重要。然后是东正教,旨在激励信徒支持俄罗斯。第三个攻击向量是炮兵。俄罗斯拥有世界上最好的陆军。俄罗斯的兵是它的士兵。俄罗斯能够承受其军队的大量伤亡。俄罗斯士兵可能是世界上最勇敢的。

现在看以色列人。耶路撒冷,其政治系统是一个混合体,既有民主也有神权。以色列人很有创造力,但根本弱点是社会内部的分歧。以色列的宏大战略被称为“大以色列计划”(Greater Israel Project)。以色列人相信从中东到幼发拉底河的整个中东都属于他们,因为这是圣经中上帝耶和华向亚伯拉罕承诺的。所以他们的意图是征服整个中东。

以色列的攻击向量,第一是摩萨德(Mossad)。它是世界上最强大的情报机构,能够渗透和瓦解不同的政治制度。第二个攻击向量是犹太侨民,因为犹太人在世界各地做生意,犹太商人与摩萨德密切合作。第三个向量是圣经,因为如果你是基督徒,你会相信犹太人是上帝的选民。所以美国有一群被称为“基督教锡安主义者”的人支持以色列。以色列的兵基本上是除了他们之外的每个人。

最后第四个玩家是伊朗。它是一个神权国家,人们不害怕为信仰而死。弱点在于它可能疏远大部分人口,因为在伊朗只有少数人是宗教狂热者,大多数人只想过体面的生活。伊朗的宏大战略是在其领导下团结穆斯林世界。他们有三个攻击向量。第一是他们的代理人:真主党、哈马斯和胡塞武装。另一个向量是他们的非对称战争,即利用无人机和导弹造成尽可能多的经济损失。第三个向量是他们的地形,他们是一座堡垒。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Okay. So we need to step back and appreciate um that there's a global dynamic going on. Okay. And we need to appreciate the grand strategy of the different players involved. Right? So what what I'm going to do is this. I'm going to explain to you how each nation sees itself in the world. Okay? And to do that, I'm going to use a chess set. Okay. Okay. All right. This is the king. This is the political system of the United States, which is democracy. And there are certain strengths and weaknesses to a democracy. Democracy is vibrant. It's creative. It's flexible. But its ultimate weakness is polarization where today um the different political factions refuse to get along. And this may break out the civil war. Okay. Mhm. So, the way you defeat the United States is not to conquer it. You can never call the United States. The way to defeat the United States is to force it into a civil war, which then kills the king to get its people to rise up against the leadership. No, you want the Democrats and the Republicans to form different factions and fight a civil war. Okay? You you want to create so much political polarization the different elite factions take up arms against each other. Okay? So, this is the political system. Okay, but democracy. Now let's look at the queen. What is the queen? The queen is what I refer to as the grand strategy of the United States. How the United States can maintain its control over the entire world. And the grand strategy, it's already outlined in the national defense strategy, right? Let's create Fortress America and then create chaos throughout the entire world so that we can sell everyone weapons and resources. Okay, that's a grand strategy. All right. All right. Now, once you have a grand strategy, you need you need to implement this grand strategy. So, you need attack vectors. All right. The attack vectors are the rook, the bishop, and the knight. All right. So, let's go over the three major attack vectors of the United States. They are first of all, America's technological supremacy. So, these are the basically the tools that they use to attack others. Exactly. In order to achieve their grand strategy, right? All right. So, aeros supremacy, right? Which is the planes and the stuff like that. Then you have the US dollar, right? Because the US dollar allows you to finance everything and everyone wants the um uh US dollar. Okay. Mhm. So, that is the second attack vector. The third attack vector is propaganda. mean United States controls the world's most powerful media including New York Times, CNN and as such they can control the narrative of the world. Okay, so these are the three major attack vectors. Now they use the pawns. The pawns are weapons that they can sacrifice in order to achieve the grand strategy. And in the case of United States, the pawn are the allies. meaning I had to say this but the UK um Europe, South Korea and Japan. Okay. And also the entire Western Hemisphere. This is the America the Americans. Okay. The people who are most opposed to this grand strategy of Americans are the Russians. So let's go over the the Russian system. In the Russian system, the king, the political system is an autocracy. And an autocracy, it's good because it allows for coronation. It allows for decisiveness. It allows for um resolve, long-term thinking. Exactly. Right. That's Putin. What's bad is if this guy dies, there's a secession crisis, right? So basically once you topple the autocrat, then the system itself breaks down. Okay? So that's the Russian system, right? For the Russians, a great strategy is something called the third Rome strategy. The third Rome strategy. Yes. Okay. So the people in Russia believe that they are the true successors to the Roman Empire and previously there are two Romes. It was the first Rome then it moved to Kalanapole and Moscow is destined to the to be the third Rome. And what makes Moscow interesting is that it wants to unite the entire Christian world under its leadership. Um the main philosopher for the third Rome strategy is Aern Dugan who in 1997 wrote a wrote a book called foundation of geopolitics. And what he said was this. What he said that if Russia is to defeat the Americans, it needs to build alliances throughout Eurasia in order to negate American sea power and aerosy. All right. So what are the attack vectors for Russia? Okay. The first attack that door, the size of the country makes it almost invincible. So think about World War II, Operation Bar Rosa. The Germans went into Russia with 67 million men and it didn't get very far. Okay? So the Trin is very important. The geography is very important. Then you have the Orthodox religion which is meant to galvanize believers into supporting Russia. The third attack vector is artillery. So Russia has the best land army in the world and we we're seeing that play out in Ukraine where um a combination of Russian artillery and drones it's devastating Ukrainian military in Ukraine. The pause for Russia are are its soldiers. So Russia is able to sustain many many casualties in its military. If you actually go and interview Russian soldiers, they are probably the bravest soldiers in the world. They are literally not afraid to die for what they believe in. Okay. So, this is the um Russian third Rome strategy. You can see how it conflicts with the Americans. Mhm. Okay. Now, we go to the Israelis. Jerusalem, the capital, it's a mixed system, meaning it's both democracy as well as a theocracy. And it's good in that the Israelis are very creative. But the fundamental weakness is the division within the society where Tel Aviv and Jerusalem don't get along. Okay. So that is the belief system of Israel. The grand strategy of Israel is called the greater Israel project. So the Israelis believe that the entire Middle East belongs to them from the Nile to the Euphrates because that's what it says in the Bible. This is what God Yahweh promised Abraham. So their intention is to conquer the entire Middle East including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, even parts of Turkey. Okay. Now let's look at the attack vectors for the the the the um Israelis. The first attack vector is Mossad. Mossad is the most powerful intelligence agency in the world in that it is able to infiltrate and undermine different political systems. And the Assad for anyone that doesn't know is their secret service basically. Yes. Their spy system. Second attack vector for the Israelis is the Jewish diaspora because the Jews do business everywhere around the world and Jewish businessmen work very closely with Mossad and as such they have influence in a lot of places that they shouldn't have. And the um third um attack vector is the Bible. Why? Because if you're a christian, and there are many christians who believe this, you believe that the Jews are God's chosen people. So if you look at what's happening in uh the Middle East, um all this conflict between Israel and Palestine, a lot of this conflict is being supported politically in the United States by a group of people called Christian Zionists. And these are Christians. They're not Jews. Christians who believe that Israel should treat achieve the greater Israel project because this is part of God's plan and the pawns for the Israelis are basically everyone else. Okay. So, a lot of the hardware underpinning the global IT infrastructure um is being controlled by the Israelis. So now we go to the fourth player in this great game and that's Iran. So Iran, it is a theocracy. People are not afraid to die for what they believe in in Iran. But the weakness is that it can alienate the majority of the population because only a minority are religious zealots in Iran. Most people just want to live to live a decent life. So if they feel that these mas the IRGC are a threat to their peace and prosperity then they might rise up against the mas which is what we've seen over the years. Right. Exactly. So so this political system of the um Iranians their grand strategy is to unite the Muslim world under leadership. They have three attack vectors. Okay. The first attack vector are their proxies. Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthies. Another attack vector um is their asymmetrical warfare, meaning using drones and missiles to create as much economic damage as possible. Okay. And the third attack vector is their geography or their top topography. They are a fortress. So it's almost impossible to um in invade them. Right? So that's their Shia militi. these religious zealots who are not afraid to die. Um, essentially they're all many of them could be suicide bombers. Okay? And and so for them, this is a religious war. Okay? So now we're seeing how this entire battlefield unfolds across the world. All right? So I've mapped out the grand strategy of these different nation states who will be involved in World War III.

封锁与影子舰队:战争已经开始

[Jiang 教授]: 美国并不真正关心这场伊朗战争,因为美国想要做的是强迫整个世界依赖美国的武器和资源。你通过两种方式做到这一点:第一是控制世界的战略咽喉要道,包括霍尔木兹海峡,还有马六甲海峡、巴拿马运河、格陵兰岛、直布罗陀海峡。你可以看到美国海军向外扩张并占领所有这些海上要塞。同时,利用你的技术优势、空中优势、无人机去摧毁世界关键能源基础设施。

俄罗斯人别无选择只能回应,因为如果美国人控制了咽喉要道,你的影子舰队(Shadow Fleet)就会变得毫无用处。你怎么把石油运到全世界?只有两个选择:建立铁路连接欧亚大陆,或者武装你的影子舰队。接下来的冲突将发生在公海,发生在试图运输石油的俄罗斯影子舰队油轮与试图捕获或摧毁这些油轮的美国驱逐舰之间。

[主持人]: 美国为什么要拦截俄罗斯的船?

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: America doesn't really care about this war in Iran because what America wants to do is force entire world to become dependent on American weapons and resources and you do that in two ways. The first is you control the strategic choke points of the world and they include the sh of kumus but you also want to control the sh of mala right over here because that blocks off east Asia. You also want to control the panama canal. You also want to control Greenland. You also want to control the sh of uh Jibralar. You can see the American Navy expanding outwards and occupying all these maritime choke points. At the same time, you want to use your technological supremacy, your aerial supremacy, your drones to destroy the world's critical energy infrastructure. Already, we're seeing oil refineries being destroyed throughout the world. Oil refineries. Oil refineries. Yes. So, you as as America, you're trying to deplete the world's energy in inventory. So, they're forced to beg you for to supply energy, right? And once this market is created, then you can build infrastructure for Venezuela. You can take over Canada. You can control Mexico. You can take take over Greenland. Okay? The Russians have no choice but to respond because if the Americans are controlling the shooting control points, your shuttle fleet is rendered redundant, useless. So, how do you ship your oil around the world? Well, you have two options. I'm just going to build railways to unite the Eurasian continent, okay? And I'm I'll transport my oil using pipelines and railways. The problem with that is not is now that you're vulnerable to American aerosy drone attacks. So, you have no choice but to arm your shuttle fleet. And now what's gonna happen is this conflict in the oceans between Russian shuttle fleet tankers that are trying to transport oil around the world and these American destroyers who are trying to capture or destroy these shadow tankers. Now the advantage that Russia has is that America doesn't have that much naval assets anymore. It used to but not anymore. The other thing is that the world really needs energy. So you can imagine China financing the militarization of the Russian shuttle fleet. Why would sir why would the US try and stop Russian boats?

[Jiang 教授]: 因为美国已经成为了霸主,它需要封锁俄罗斯。方法就是扣押他们的影子舰队。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Because um in this global outlook there are two nations that could provide weapons and resources to the rest of the world. They are Russia and they are America. So if America has become dominant, it needs to blockade Russia. The way you do that is by seizing their shuttle fleet.

[主持人]: 但如果那样发生,那将是战争行为。

Original English

[Host]: But but if that happened, that would be an act of war.

[Jiang 教授]: 但这已经在发生了。伊朗油轮被美国人扣押,加勒比海的油轮也被扣押。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: But it's already happening. Iranian tankers have been seized by the Americans and tankers are being seized in the Caribbean as well by the American Navy.

[主持人]: 谁的油轮?

Original English

[Host]: Whose tankers?

[Jiang 教授]: 我相信是俄罗斯油轮。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: I believe they are Russian tankers. Yes. The United States has indeed been seizing tankers linked to Russia. A major escalation occurred earlier this year on January the 7th, 2026 when the US military and Coast Guard intercepted two sanctioned shadow fleet oil tankers. While one was seized directly in the Caribbean, the other involved a dramatic chase that started in the Caribbean and ended in the North Atlantic. US forces captured this sanctioned tanker during a pre-dawn raid directly in the Caribbean Sea. The US military described it as stateless sanctioned dark fleet vessel which was engaged in illicit activities. These seizures are part of operation southern spear, a strict enforcement of the US embargo on Venezuelan oil exports. Both vessels were targeted for violating US sanctions by transporting illicit crude oil linked to Venezuela as well as Iran and Hezbollah.

[主持人]: 正如你指出的,这是战争行为。那么,你认为战争爆发的催化剂时刻是什么?

Original English

[Host]: And as you point out, this is an act of war. So those were ships that didn't have a country linked to them directly. That's why they're called shuttle fleet tankers. Okay. Yes. But they essentially Russian, but they were essentially shipping oil outside of the United States that the United States wouldn't control. Is that kind of that? That is correct. Yes. Okay. Yes. So So the US said, "Listen, this is our oil. Get lost." That is correct. Yes. Right. So what the United States is doing is slowly expanding its global reach. The way it's doing that is by setting treaties with nations that are part of these choke points. So the Malaa recently United States has signed a military cooperation agreement with Indonesia and with the Jialter uh the Americans have signed an agreement now with Morocco right so they are looking for the legal framework justification to control the world's choke points which would bring them directly in conflict with the Russian shuttle fleet. So at some point you think the way that the war starts is the US Navy attacks a Russian boat. So I personally believe that this will be a drawn out process that and there's no real concrete flash point because not only are Russian shuttle flanker shuttle um fleet tankers being seized but remember Russian or foundaries are being destroyed by Ukrainian drones. The Russians believe that it is NATO that is responsible for the sabotage. So what when what do you think the catalyst moment is when this all kicks off?

[Jiang 教授]: 我认为我们已经处于催化剂时刻。我认为我们已经在第三次世界大战中了。因为这场冲突将向外扩展成一场全球冲突。下一步将是俄罗斯站在伊朗一边加入这场战争。根据俄罗斯的宏大战略,俄罗斯别无选择只能拯救伊朗。俄罗斯想宣传一种观点,即世界分为精神和物质,美国人是“敌基督”,而俄罗斯人相信人性、善良和社区。如果你持有这种论点,那么你有道义上的义务在伊朗困难时期提供帮助。俄罗斯将开始在战争进程中帮助伊朗。

如果俄罗斯站在伊朗一边参战,俄罗斯首先会做的是通过里海为德黑兰提供增援。通过里海,俄罗斯人可以支持伊朗。不仅如此,俄罗斯还可以拉中国入伙。中国可以利用“一带一路”倡议,基本上是铁路系统,从东部增援德黑兰。那么你就再也无法勒死德黑兰了。然后俄罗斯和中国可以为伊朗提供融资,让他们可以想打多久就打多久。

第三点,也是最重要的,俄罗斯可以将伊朗纳入其核保护伞之下。这将抵消战术核武器的使用。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: I think we're already in the catalyst moment. I think we're already in World War III because um this conflict it's going to expand outwards uh into a global conflict and there's nothing anyone can do to stop this, right? Because again you have these different competing visions of how the world should work and the Americans and Russians are already at conflict with each other. So the next step will be the Russians come into this war on the side of the Iranians. Do you think that's going to happen? I think that's going to happen because according to Russian grand strategy, you have no choice but to save the Iranians because you're trying to promote this view that the world is split between the spiritual and the material. The Americans are the antichrist. The Americans support individual hedenism. Whereas we Russians, we believe in humanity. We believe in goodness. We believe in community. Right? So if you believe if you if that is your argument, if that's your grand strategy, then you have a moral ob obligation, a moral imperative to help the Iranians in their time of need. And in fact, prime prime minister uh Arachi of of Iran has recently visited Putin in Moscow. Putin Putin personally received him and said to Rachi, "We the Russian people admire your determination, your resolve um against the Americans." And I think that is a sign that Putin has entered the chat and that the Russians will start to help the Iranians as this war progresses. So let's go back to this map. Okay. Okay. And the Americans have a threeprong strategy to strangle um Iran. The first is use ground forces to establish sport operating bases to incite ethnic violence in the country. The second is to block officer of Humus and cut off Iranian financing. The third is to strangle pan and cause the people to rise up against the government. Okay. If the Russians, so if things stay the same as they are now, America wins easily. But if Russia were to enter the war on behalf of the Iranians, the first thing that Russia would do is provide Tran with reinforcement from the Caspian Sea, right? Because the Americans want to knock out Tran's capacity to provide food, water, and electricity to its people. But uh through the fastman sea, the Russians can support the uh Iranians. But not only that, and this is much more important, if the Russians were to come in, they could also bring the Chinese into the war on behalf of the Iranians. And the Chinese could use the belt and rolling initiative, basically the railway system to reinforce Tran from uh the east. So now you can no longer strangle Tran because the Russians and the Chinese are reinforcing Tran. Then what the Russians could do is provide financing to Iranians. Basically the Iranian the Chinese sorry the Chinese and the Russians can say to Iranians don't worry about financing. We will give you enough uh financing for you to continue this war for as long as you want and we'll use our resources as collateral for this financing. Right? And the third thing, and this is actually the most important, is that Russia could put Iran under its nuclear umbrella. And this would negate the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The Israelis and the Americans, if they really felt under pressure, if they really put in a corner, they could always choose to use tactical nuclear weapons. If the Russians were involved, that negates that option, right? So if the Russians get involved in this war, they bring the Chinese, they provide, they provide the resources and the financing to continue this war for as long as it takes. Mhm. Right. And now the Americans need to expand this war on the world to try now to topple the government in Russia because the Russians are the main backers of the Iranians. And you're predicting that Russia will get involved here. According to the grand strategy of Russia, the Russians have no choice but to get involved because what will happen is that if you look at this map, if Iran were to be conquered by the Americans or the Israelis, the entire southern flank of the Russians are now exposed to possible attack. And that's that's something that the Russians would never allow to happen. the sovereign fact. So what this from underneath basically right right but not only that but the Americans already have close relations with Azan and they already have bases in Tbkasan as well as Ubekistan right so you can see how once the Americans consolidate this area they can now attack Russia from the south but what's most important is the issue of global trade where like a counter to America's n blockade is by creating a uranian Ian trade block that involves Iran, Russia and China. You look at Russia's north south corridor, right? You look at China's you look at Russia's north south corner, it runs through Iran. If Russia wants to access the Middle East as well as Africa, it has to go for Iran. You look at China's battle road initiative, it goes through Iran as well. So by taking out Iran, you've blockaded both Russia and China.

特朗普的第三任期与 AI 平民国家

[主持人]: 特朗普只剩下三年的任期了。如果你是伊朗,你可能会想等等看,希望到 2030 年会有不同的领导层。

Original English

[Host]: So, when do you think this was going to happen? If you get were to give me a timeline of events you think are going to occur, what timeline do you think you're operating under? I guess one of the factors here is that Trump only has what, three years left in power. So, you know, he's presumably going to leave power at some point soon. So, if you're Iran, you might just want to play it out and hope that there's a different leadership in place by by 20 what be 2030.

[Jiang 教授]: 伊朗的政治领导层相信他们可以耗死特朗普。但问题在于《国家防务战略》,它是一个美国如何控制世界的长期战略框架。一种可能性是特朗普只是在为美国的转型制造足够的混乱。当民主党上台时,他们会将这一战略制度化。我们知道这是可能的,因为在特朗普的第一任期,他改变了美国的全球战略,当拜登上台后,他针对中国制度化了这一战略。所以第三次世界大战是一场更长期的消耗战,我不认为这场战争会很快结束。

你提到了我做了八个新预测。其中一个最受争议的预测是:我预测美国将发生内战,且特朗普将获得第三任期

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: The political leadership in Iran believe that they can wait Trump out. So they're waiting for the midterms because they believe that in November the Democrats will win the midterms and then they will impeach Trump and basically constrain his capacity to fight wars. And worst case scenario, Trump will be gone in 2028. As you point out, there are certain problems with this. The first major problem is the national defense strategy, which we looked at previously. the national defense strategy. It is a long-term strategic framework for how America can control the world. And so one possibility is that Trump is just creating enough chaos for America to trans to transition. When the Democrats come to power, if they come to power, they will institutionalize the strategy. And we know this as a possibility because in Trump's first term, he changed America's strategy around the world. And then when Biden came into power, he then institutionalized the strategy uh via v China, right? So it was Trump who launched these this tariff war against China and then finally comes in power institutionalizes it. Right? So, I think World War III, it's a much more long-term uh war of attrition, and I don't think that this war um will end anytime soon. You've made a series of new predictions. You've made eight new predictions. Okay. And I have them in this box here. Okay. I'll let you reveal what those predictions are. Okay. Um this is one prediction. Okay. Okay. So, this is the most controversial prediction. Okay. I predict that there will be a US civil war and Trump will get a third term.

[主持人]: 特朗普获得第三任期?这在宪法上不是非法的吗?

Original English

[Host]: You think Trump will get a third term? Isn't that constitutionally illegal?

[Jiang 教授]: 特朗普获得第三任期并不违法。让我解释这个漏洞。特朗普可以这样做:2028 年他让他的儿子小唐纳德竞选总统,而他竞选副总统。如果小唐纳德获胜,他可以退位,特朗普就成了总统。宪法并没有明确禁止人们这样做。或者到 2028 年美国正与所有人开战,实行全国征兵,总统拥有紧急战争权力,可以暂停宪法并推迟选举。

特朗普是一个痴迷于关注的人,他宁愿死在办公室,也不愿在别处平静地生活。他甚至在脑海里认为自己赢得了 2020 年,所以他认为这实际上是他的第三任期,政府欠他一个补偿。

我的下一个预测是:世界将走向 AI 平民国家。这意味着两件事:数字 ID 和数字货币。这将允许政府监视你在网上做的一切,并控制所有金融交易。它可以编写你的银行账户程序,让你不能买烟或买药。这允许政府将每个人分类并放入数据库进行监控,然后利用 AI 预测其行为。这在中国已经在发生了。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: There are things that are unconventional and immoral and wrong and evil and dangerous and there are certain things that are illegal. Trump getting a third term is not illegal. So, let me explain the loophole. What Trump could do is this. Okay, there there are two possibilities. The first possibility is in 2028 he has his son Don Jr. run as a president and he runs as the vice president. And then when Don Jr. wins, if he wins, then Don Jr. could abdicate and Trump would be the president. And in the constitution, if you read the constitution very carefully, it doesn't actually prohibit people from doing that. It's not been done in the past. And like no sane person with any morality would do this. But that doesn't stop Trump from from doing this. Okay, that's one possibility. Another possibility is that by 2028, America is at war with everyone. There's a national draft. The president now has emergency war powers and so he can actually suspend the constitution and delay the election, which is what Zilinski did in Ukraine. So these are two different possibilities. But I think that given Trump's track record, given his personality, I think he very much um wants a third term. And I think that he will do everything possible to get a third term. He would turn 83 years old in the same year that he finishes his second term. This is a man who eats McDonald's hamburgers every day. He doesn't really work out. Yet on the campaign trail, he's able to go to two rallies a day. And in each rally, there's 50,000 people, and he will talk on and on and on. Then at night when he he should be sleeping, he's either on truth social tweeting about the world or he's calling up reporters and telling him or her some confidential information that he really shouldn't be discussing with the media. This is a man who is addicted to attention. This is a man who loves the spotlight. He's lived all his life in the spotlight. For him, death is to be ignored. So given his personality, he would rather die in office than live uh peacefully somewhere else. ... Trump does not trust anyone. ... Well, I think there's a possibility that they figure out how to cheat in 2028. Oh, as in actually cheat at the election, right? So, at the poll booth, right? So, let's go into Trump's mind. All right. his his psychology. In his mind, he won in 2020. The people voted for him, but the Democrats stole the election with mail and ballots and by rigging the election machines. Okay? He in his mind, he literally believes that. So in his mind he believes that this is actually his third term and the people and the government they owe him a second term which is what he wants now. He wants uh compensation for having the election stolen from him in 2020. ... The 22nd amendment explicitly states no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice. Some theorists have tried to argue that since the amendment says elected, a person might be able to serve a third term if they were appointed to succeed to the role. Exactly. if they were appointed or succeeded to the role, eg by being vice president first. Legal scholars and the judicial committee almost universally reject this. The 12th amendment requires that anyone serving as vice president must be eligible to be president since a two-term president is ineligible to be elected again. They illegally barred from being vice president. So the point is the there's nothing explicit in the constitution that bars someone from having a third term and there's debate in the legal community about the spirit of the 22nd amendment. It would go to the Supreme Court, right? And the Supreme Court is controlled right now by the conservatives. Trump appointed three of the nine justices and there's a possibility he gets a fourth later in the year. So it's entirely up to the Supreme Court whether or not he can run. And again, there's something explicit in the constitution that forbids him from running as a vice president. Okay. What's your next prediction? The my second prediction is there will be a grand bargain between United States and China. ... My second prediction is Iran is another forever war and the United States will institute a national draft. ... This is pretty bad. The world will move towards an AI civilian state. I feel like that's already happening. I think it's pretty obvious. Yeah. What does that mean in reality for the average person? ... Right? So, for the average person, it means two things. It means digital ID and digital currency. Okay. So, what that what that will allow is for the government to basically monitor everything you do online and control all financial transactions. it it can basically program your bank account so like you can't buy cigarettes or you can't buy drugs. Um and this will allow the government to basically um categorize everyone and put everyone into a certain database to monitor that person. And once you have once you're able to categorize everyone you're allow then you are you are able to use AI to predict their behavior. Isn't this what goes on in some parts of the world? This is what goes on in China. And that's how I know about this. How does it work in China? Well, in China, we all have digital ID. If you want to access anything in China, you need your digital ID. So, if you want to open a bank account, you have to you have to use um a digital ID. If you want to use any uh e payments, you have to use digital ID. If you want to use a phone, you have to use digital ID. Okay? So, everyone's part of this national database. And then this what this allows government to do is basically monitor everything if you do because basically depending on how you buy things I can then extrapolate to figure out your behavior and then I can figure out your thinking. Right? And then I can create incentives in order to guide and control your behavior. So in China, can they see everything that you do? Yes, they can. messages you send, everything, payments you make, everything, everything. Everything you do online is being recorded and it's being inputed into the database to figure out who you are, what you want, and how to control you. And they think this is progress, by the way. This is progress because I'm making you a better person, right? I'm helping you achieve your dream. I'm helping you lose weight. I'm helping you avoid drugs. I'm helping you work harder.

柏拉图的洞穴寓言:揭示现实的虚假

[主持人]: Jiang 教授,什么是我们还没谈到但本该谈到的最重要的事情?

Original English

[Host]: Professor, what's the most important thing we haven't talked about that we should have talked about?

[Jiang 教授]: 让我们来谈谈现实的本质。为了解释现实的本质,我要引用柏拉图在他的《理想国》一书中谈到的“洞穴寓言”。

想象一个巨大的黑暗洞穴,里面有成百上千的人排成一排,他们被锁在地上,脖子被枷锁固定,无法移动。他们唯一能做的就是盯着面前的一堵空墙。在这些人身后是一团大火,火旁有人拿着木偶,通过火光将这些木偶投射到墙上。当人们看到这些影子时,他们认为这就是现实。于是他们开始创造叙事来解释这个现实,创造语言给影子命名,创造宗教。随着时间的推移,这些人爱上了这个现实,上瘾了。如果有人过来说:“嘿伙计们,看看你们身后,这全是骗局”,人们会愤怒到杀掉这个人。

这就是我们生活的现实本质。要记住,创造这个现实的不是掌权者,而是我们的想象力。首先要意识到,一切都是幻觉

在第一层,你需要一种力量把人锁起来,这就是美国的军工复合体以及帝国。第二步,你需要人来创造现实,指挥人们的注意力,创造游戏。这些人是金融精英,设在巴塞尔的国际清算银行。他们设定汇率,允许无缝金融交易。接着是华尔街和伦敦城的金融家,还有美联储,因为美联储是印钱的人。

一旦你创造了游戏规则,你就创造了游戏本身,即全球经济。然后你必须向人们解释全球经济是如何运作的,你不能告诉人们背后有秘密的人在投射影子。所以你创造了多边组织,假装控制全球经济,它们是世界银行、联合国、WTO。

现在你必须说服人们这个系统是合法的。这就是为什么你需要媒体,需要好莱坞电影,需要教育和学校系统。这些人都是囚犯中的领导者,帮助其他囚犯理解墙上的影子。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: So let's talk about the nature of reality. To explain the nature of reality, um I'm going to explain Plato's allego the cave, which he talked about in his book, The Republic. Right. Exactly. This book. Yes. The Republic. Okay. One of the masterpieces of Greek civilization as well as Western civilization. All right. So this is how Plato explains the nature of reality. And so he uses a metaphor called the cave. So, I want you to imagine a dark cavern that is huge. And in this cavern, there are hundreds of people lined up together. And they are chained to the ground. Their necks are shackled, so they can't actually move. And all they can do is stare in front of them at a giant wall that's empty. Okay. Now, behind these people, and again, they they can't see behind them, right? It's a great fire. Along the alongside this fire are people, okay, we don't know who they are. Never explains who these people are. They take puppets and they project these puppets off the fire onto the wall. And when people see these shadows, they think that this is reality. And as such, they begin to create narratives to explain this reality. They create language. They give shadows names. They explain where these shadows come from. They create religion. Then these people decide to specialize. So some people who are priests who explain this new religion. There's some people who are poets that talk about the beauty of the shadows. And then you have teachers who teach about the shadows to children. And then over time what happens is that these people fall in love with this reality so that they are addicted to it. So if anyone comes on and says hey guys why don't you look behind you and see it's all just a farce. These people will be so angry that they kill this person. Right? So I'm not sure if you've ever watched a Korean drama. ... So the first thing to appreciate is that everything is a hallucination. And this is something that nor scientists have confirmed. So what we're going to do is we're going to take Plato's algorithm of the cave the framework and then apply it to our reality to understand how it's created. Okay. So in the first layer you need a power a force to put people in change right and this is what we call the military-industrial complex of America as well as the empire. So going back to this example, it's the layer that puts the people into change. But now the second step is you need people to create the reality to direct people's attention to create the game. And this these people are the financial elite, the bank of international settlements based in Basil. So what do they do? These people are the ones who set the the exchange currency rates and they also allow for seamless financial transactions, the swift system basically. Then Wall Street and the city of London were the financiers and then you have the Federal Reserve Federal Reserve system because the Federal Reserve are the people who print money. Okay. Now once you create the rules of the game, you need to create the game itself which is the global economy right global economy and obviously this is a pretty vast system that encompasses everything. Okay. Now you have to explain to people how the global economy works and you cannot tell people oh really there are these secret people working behind the scenes that are projecting shadows onto a wall. So what you do is you create multilateral organizations that pretend to control the global economy and they are the World Bank, the United Nations, WTO. You make them believe that this is all being controlled impartially for our benefit. Now you have to convince people that this system is legitimate. That's when you're actually seeing the shadows on the wall, they're real. That's why you need the media. That's why you need culture such as Hollywood movies basically and you need education school system. Okay, these are the people who are all prisoners who have become leaders of the prisoners and who are helping them understand the shadows on the wall.

[主持人]: 那么我在媒体中吗?

Original English

[Host]: So am I in the media?

[Jiang 教授]: 是的。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Yes, you are.

[主持人]: 那么我是在做什么?我是那些控制叙事的火堆旁的人之一吗?

Original English

[Host]: Am I? So am I what am I doing? Am I one of the people in the fire controlling the narrative? Is that what?

[Jiang 教授]: 是的。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Yes. Yes.

[主持人]: 但我不被任何人掌控。

Original English

[Host]: But but I'm not owned by anybody.

[Jiang 教授]: 那只是你以为的。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: That's what you think.

[主持人]: 噢真的吗?我被谁掌控?

Original English

[Host]: Oh, really? Who who am I owned by?

[Jiang 教授]: 归根结底,是那些控制火堆的人在负责。也就是第二层——游戏大师、金融精英在控制一切。你想赚钱吗?那他们就在控制你。因为他们控制着货币的创造。

所以既然你有了媒体、学校和文化系统来帮助人们理解墙上的影子,这些影子现在就变成了内化的价值观和规范,决定了人们认为的好坏、习惯、习俗、生活方式以及法律制度。

关于这个系统,有三点需要明白:第一,在我们的脑海里,我们认为法律和价值观是基础,而事实上它们只是我们想象的产物。第二,这是一个非常微妙的结构,如果有人不合作,整个大厦就会崩溃。第三点,也是最重要的,随着系统变得越来越不稳定(年轻人不再相信影子了),系统需要变得更加威权主义。它需要强迫人们相信他们拒绝相信的东西,因为系统中的每个人都有动力确保这座大厦稳定。这就是为什么我们需要审查制度,需要去平台化,需要觉醒政治和 DEI(多元、公平与包容),因为它们是一种强制执行机制。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Ultimately, it's the people who control the fire that are in charge, right? So, ultimately, it's these people, the second layer. Okay. The game masters, the financial elite that control everything. Do you want to make money? Then they're controlling you. Okay. Right. Because they control the creation of money. And so now that you have the media, the schools and the cultural systems helping people understand the shadows on the wall. These shadows now become internalized and they dictate the values and norms of people, what they believe to be good and bad. They dictate habits and customs, how you live your life, and they dictate the legal system, who's punished for what. Okay? And this becomes a top edifice. And what's amazing about the system is that in our minds, okay, in our minds, we believe that the system is first of all the complete opposite where un where the foundation is actually the laws, the habits and the values when in fact in reality these are just figments of our imagination. Okay, that's point one. Point two is that this is a very very delicate structure. So if anyone doesn't cooperate okay then this is this NFS collapses because it's a very very delicate system okay and the third thing and this is most important to understand the world that we live in as the system becomes much more wobbly meaning that young people don't really believe in the shadows anymore. Young people grow up and says hm are these shadows really real? They don't feel real to me. The system needs to become much more authoritarian. It needs to force people to believe what they refuse to believe because everyone in a system is incentivized to ensure this edifice is stable.

[主持人]: 你认为这在某种程度上与独立媒体的现状有关吗?因为独立媒体正在质疑社会的运作方式。

Original English

[Host]: Do you think this is somewhat linked to what's going on with independent media? Because independent media are asking a lot of questions about the way society functions.

[Jiang 教授]: 没错。这就是为什么政府对独立媒体感到非常担忧,因为如果你的人民在说这些影子是假的,这会产生连锁反应,导致人们开始质疑墙上的影子。你不能让那种情况发生。

在这个系统中,没有人真正负责,也没有人是恶棍。他们只是在系统中成长,每个人都在保护自己的利益,仅此而已。

但问题是,随着时间的推移,越来越多的年轻人会成长并说:“我看不见影子,我很确定我们被骗了。”在这种情况下,这提供了一个推翻旧系统并建立新系统的机会。这就是为什么 AI 很重要。

Original English

[Professor Jiang]: Exactly. And that's why we're seeing governments becoming very worried about independent media because if you have people on the population saying these these shadows are fake, this creates a ripple effect. It causes uh people to start questioning the shadows on the wall. You can't have that. So that's why it's important to have censorship. That's why it's important to deplatform people. That's why you have woke politics, DEI, because it's an enforcement mechanism. ... Look, if you look at the system, no one's really in charge and no one's a villain. They just grow up in the system and everyone's protecting their incentives. Exactly. That's kind of what I mean. ... But the problem is that over time more and more young people are going to grow up and say, "I don't see shadows. I'm pretty sure we're being lied to. In which case, this presents an opportunity to overthrow the system and create a new system. And this is why AI is important.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

人物: Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin

公司/组织: GCC, NATO, IRGC, OpenAI

产品/模型: THAAD

媒体/书籍: The Republic, Foundations of Geopolitics, Sapiens

关键字: geopolitical-forecasting petrodollar-system military-strategy economic-blockade allegory-of-the-cave