和平协议的缺失环节:原则性务实主义 TED 2026-06-02

官僚化和平的困局

在我过去四十年的冲突现实生活体验中,无论是作为一名普通人,还是在联合国工作期间,我观察到一个令人不安的趋势:我们正在将“和平”过度官僚化。当前的和平行业围绕着一种熟悉的、基于西方自由主义模型(Western liberal model: 强调通过对话、选举、警察训练等制度手段构建和平的模式)建立,拥有一套固定的“工具箱”:和平建设者与调解人介入、推动对话与选举、进行警察培训、实施稳定化计划,并象征性地纳入草根群体、女性和青年,最后通过撰写报告来完成循环。

虽然这些工作至关重要,但我们往往将“程序”误认为是“进展”。最根本的问题在于,我们未能建立足够的政治合法性、aligned self-interest(一致的自身利益)以及公众支持,导致和平协议往往形同虚设。在冲突地区,这些未完成的政治协议和未能解决的占领问题,使得所谓的和平协议就像是一个压力锅上的盖子——表面看似平静,直到压力找到最薄弱的一点并最终爆发。

Original English Source

I have spent the last four decades in the reality of conflict. As a child, as a mother and as a professional. And I'm not the exception. 1 in 4 people today are living the reality of conflict. We are living in an era where war and violence are becoming the reflex -- the choice -- not the last resort. What we've been witnessing with Iran is just the most visible example, because it’s been sending shockwaves well beyond its borders: in energy prices, in trade routes disruption and in political polarization. And sadly, even when wars end and when agreements are signed, violence often returns within five years. Over the course of my international career with the United Nations, I noticed something that should not be controversial, but still is. We have overly bureaucratized peace. We've built an entire industry around it, with the familiar Western liberal model and a familiar toolbox: bring in the peacebuilders and mediators, launch dialogues, push for elections, train the police, launch stabilization programs, add grassroots, women, maybe sprinkle some youth so you can tick an inclusion box, write reports and repeat. And don’t get me wrong, this work is important. But too often we mistake process for progress. And too often, we do not build enough political legitimacy, enough aligned self-interest, enough public backing to make peace hold. We have seen the limitations of this. In the Middle East, tens of millions of people are living the unfinished business of wars, of failed political settlements, of occupation. Or take Afghanistan: 20 years of vast intervention and investment, and the story ended exactly where it began -- Taliban to Taliban. So why does peace break down when we do everything we think we're supposed to do? The answer I kept coming back to was not ideology -- it was power, politics and incentives. And for the broader public, it was legitimacy and trust. And legitimacy is a felt experience -- in good governance, whether you trust your police force, whether your children can walk to school safely, whether your dignity is preserved. Without these, a peace agreement becomes a lid on a boiling pot. It looks calm until the pressure finds the weakest point -- then it erupts.

从理想主义转向原则性务实

基于对这些失败教训的总结,我创立了 原则和平基金会(Principles for Peace Foundation: 致力于研究和平进程成败,并开发工具与数据支持以建立更持久和平的机构)。我意识到,在这个崇尚强权政治和交易主义的世界中,和平的抗衡手段不应是理想主义,而应是 原则性务实主义(Principled Pragmatism: 指带有脊梁的自身利益,即在务实基础上坚守和平底线的策略)。

特别是在我个人的成长背景中,我深刻体会到当身份由损失、暴力和受害者心态定义时,他者化(Othering: 将对方视为非我族类的过程)会变得习以为常,将对方非人化成为一种条件反射。我曾参与过那种被世界广泛推崇的、基于草根对话的和平项目,那些项目鼓励分享、同理心、拥抱,甚至分享鹰嘴豆泥。但我非常讨厌这种形式,因为当我回家时,现实依然严酷、复杂且不安全,对话产生的同理心根本无法改变那种被战争、占领和暴力摧毁的生活现实。在痛失友人、家园被毁之后,我意识到,如果要解决这些问题,必须将最关键的决策者带入那间“最艰难的房间”。

Original English Source

So I got fed up. With the bureaucracy, with the system, with its toolbox. And I founded Principles for Peace Foundation to help those in the hot seat, to help peacemakers build more legitimate and durable peace. We drew on lessons from dozens of countries to understand what lies beneath the success and failure of peace processes, and developed principles and tools and methodologies and data and simulations and AI support and political dialogue infrastructures to help those who are trying to make peace hold. Because this is the challenge of our time. How do you build peace? How do you cultivate legitimacy in a world where might is right again, where power politics is back and transactionalism is in fashion? My answer is not by countering power with idealism, but with principled pragmatism. Because principled pragmatism is self-interest with a spine. I recently became a proud Swiss, but I was born and raised a proud Palestinian. So people often expect me to start with victimhood, to start with moral argument, to start with pain. My pain, their pain, everybody's pain. But I learned something early that I wish was not true. When identities are shaped by loss, by violence, by victimhood, othering becomes normal. Dehumanizing the other side becomes reflex. Groupthink becomes shelter, and violence becomes currency. Empathy for the other side is rarely the entry point. When I was 19, I was invited to the kind of dialogue program the world loves to celebrate. It's the perfect grassroots project. You bring in a few young Israelis and Palestinians. You put them somewhere nice -- maybe in a retreat location in Europe. You encourage them to pour their hearts out. You encourage sharing. You encourage empathy. You encourage hugs. And you bring out that hummus. And I hated it. Not because I do not believe in empathy -- and by the way, I love hummus. But because when I went home, the reality stayed hard, complicated, unsafe, and I couldn't do anything about it. And a few months later, the Second Intifada started and those we were sharing with were back in uniforms, fighting in our own towns. I lost friends. My house was destroyed, and I lost hope. And for nearly two decades, I dedicated my career to working with people affected by conflict, but I avoided working on my own. It was just too painful. Then October 7 happened, and the war in Gaza expanded. And I realized, if I truly believe in my work, I have to bring in Israelis and Palestinians to the hardest room in my life.

STIR方法论:重构对话逻辑

在“最艰难的房间”里,我召集了76位以色列和巴勒斯坦的领袖,他们不是通常的和平对话者,而是安全负责人、商业领袖、投资者和政治人物。在这里,“和平”一词甚至会引来嘲笑,因此我直接点明了冲突的本质:我们是因为对各自人民的紧迫感和责任感而来,现有的现状既不能为以色列人带来安全,也不能为巴勒斯坦人带来尊严或结束占领。

我们不再纠结于国族叙事或历史纠葛,而是专注于那些不可失去的共同核心:安全、尊严和对子女的未来期许。这就是共同的自身利益,它是和平的起点,而非道德一致性。为了让这种合作运作,我引入了一套序列方法论,我称之为 STIR

  • Self-Interest(自利):承认现状不可持续。
  • Transaction(交易):寻找共同基础,通过地区框架寻求政治解决方案(对巴勒斯坦人而言是结束占领与非军事化建国;对以色列人而言则是安全与区域融合)。
  • Recognition(认可):承认对方的存在与痛苦。
  • Humanity(人性):在务实基础上最终找回人性。

我们以此成立了 共同未来联盟(Uniting for a Shared Future Coalition: 一个由550多名以色列和巴勒斯坦领袖组成的、在战争中依然坚持推动政治解决方案的平台)。该联盟的运作证明,即使在战争激烈的时刻,只要使用正确的语法和逻辑,信任是可以建立的。

Original English Source

So that's what I did. Come into that room with me. It’s weeks after October 7: The war is raging. Loss and trauma are overwhelming. The door closes and 76 people sit down, carrying decades of grievances and recent loss. No one trusts anyone. Not the room, not the process, not each other, not me. They're Israeli and Palestinian leaders, but they're not the usual suspects. They're security leaders, business leaders, investors, political figures, journalists [and] serious operators. And outside that room, the public narrative is collapsing so fast -- it's so hard, it's so polarized. In a room like that, if you start with the word peace, you get laughed out of the building. So I named the tension plainly because anything softer would be dishonest. "We are here out of urgency and responsibility for our own people. Because the status quo neither delivered security to the Israelis, nor dignity nor an end to the occupation for the Palestinians. And we are at an inflection point. We either break this cycle or condemn both our people to a perpetual state of loss, of trauma, of insecurity of occupation." We agreed not to dwell on our national and historical narrative -- there is no common ground to be found in the past. Instead, we focused on what you cannot afford to lose: security, dignity, the future you want for your children. Because, you see, common ground does not begin with moral agreement -- it begins with self-interest. Everything else comes later. So let me tell you what we've done differently, because this is where the old peacemaking toolbox often misfires. We did not organize this around the grassroots, but the grasstops. Not the convinced, but the persuadable -- people with influence on power, on politics, on the economy. People who know that the status quo is not sustainable, but they can do something about it. And I introduced a sequence that almost looks too simple until you watch it work. Self-interest, transaction, recognition and then humanity. I called it STIR. And I called it STIR on purpose, because if you do not stir the room, you get positions sitting next to each other forever. You can certainly put the chickpeas next to the tahini, next to the lemon juice, and not get that hummus. Self-Interest. The status quo is not sustainable because it neither delivers security to the Israelis nor an end to the occupation of the Palestinians. Then you seek that common ground -- that transaction -- a political solution within a regional framework. For Palestinians, that means an end to the occupation and a non-militarized Palestinian state, side by side with Israel. For Israelis, that means security and a pathway to regional integration, rather than isolation. Once you find that common ground, you can build something that is principled and pragmatic. You can build a platform for dialogue and for action. That became Uniting for a Shared Future Coalition. That's our coalition. And it grew and it held and it expanded. And today it brings more than 550 Israeli and Palestinian leaders -- realists and possibilists. What's very special about this coalition is that we work together -- even in the midst of the war -- to push for a political solution. In the months that followed, we started to advocate together, from heads of state to briefing the UN Security Council with a joint message. And I saw Israelis and Palestinians who did not see eye-to-eye begin to speak about the future in the same grammar. And trust began to grow in our coalition, in our process and in each other. I watched Palestinians and Israelis recognize each other's losses. They no longer dehumanized the other. They no longer relativized pain. That's what STIR made possible.

跨越冲突的循环

我们需要清醒地认识到,现实依然残酷。无论是以色列人还是巴勒斯坦人,都深感自身存在受到威胁,而整个中东正处于十字路口。要么继续陷入无休止的对抗和各种战争的循环中,要么转向一种新的政治安全与合作框架。这种转型的前提是必须解决巴以冲突,因为它是持续推动极端主义的关键断层线。

总而言之,在当今这个崇尚交易的世界中,对抗“强权即公理”的解药不是理想主义,也不是道德说教,而是原则性务实主义。通过围绕开明的自身利益来发起“愿者联盟”(coalitions of the willing),可以切实推进和平与安全。人性是需要赚取的,而这一过程必须始于自身利益、交易、认可,并最终实现人性的回归。无论冲突在哪里肆虐,都要通过STIR框架去搅动那个房间,直到人性升腾。

Original English Source

But let me be clear. The reality continues to be brutal. Both people are trapped in deep insecurity. And Israelis and Palestinians feel existentially threatened. And my people, Palestinians, continue to live the reality of occupation, settler violence, devastation in Gaza and the threat of annexation in the West Bank. And the whole Middle East is at a crossroads. It either stays locked in a perpetual state of confrontation and different wars -- same wars, I dare say, with different names -- or it moves into a new logic of new political security and cooperation framework. And stops exporting this whole instability to the rest, to all of us, to the rest of us and all of us. But I would argue that that can only happen if we resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, because it's the key fault line that continues to fuel radicalization. So my lesson is this: in a transactional world, the antidote to "might is right" is not idealism. It is not moralizing. It is principled pragmatism. It is launching coalitions of the willing around enlightened self-interest that can advance peace and security. If you want humanity, you have to earn it. But start with self-interest -- self-interest, transaction, recognition and then the return of humanity. Wherever conflict rules, STIR that room until humanity rises.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

关键字: conflict-resolution principled-pragmatism peace-building political-legitimacy