贸易协定背景
主持人: 《美加墨协定》(CUSMA)已生效近六年,但自总统唐纳德·特朗普开启贸易战以来,两国关系一直动荡不安。最近,他警告称,如果加拿大与中国达成贸易协议,将对加拿大征收100%的关税。而且他似乎不相信加拿大和墨西哥能提供多少东西。“你知道,我们不需要在加拿大制造的汽车。我们不需要在墨西哥制造的汽车。我们想在这里制造它们。”那么,他是否想保留库兹马呢?随着三个国家重返谈判桌进行审查,我们将在未来几个月内找出世界上最大的自由贸易区是否拥有未来。为了帮助分析,我采访了科林·罗伯逊,他是加拿大全球事务研究所的高级顾问和研究员。他还曾在《北美自由贸易协定》(NAFTA)的实施团队任职,以及玛莎·霍尔·芬德利,她是卡尔加里大学公共政策学院院长,也是前自由党国会议员,代表多伦多-威洛代尔选区。他们两人都是卡尔顿大学加拿大-美国关系专家组的成员。科林、玛莎,很高兴你们来到节目。你们俩怎么样?
Original English
Host: The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement has been in effect for almost six years now, but relations have been rocky, to say the least, since President Donald Trump started his trade war. Just recently, he warned he'd slap a 100% tariff on Canada if it made a trade deal with China. And he doesn't seem convinced that Canada and Mexico have much to offer. "You know, we don't need cars made in Canada. We don't need cars made in Mexico. We want to make them here." So does he want to keep Kuzma or not? With the three countries heading back to the table to review it, we're going to find out in the coming months whether the largest free trade region in the world has a future. To help break this down, I spoke with Colin Robertson, senior advisor and fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. He also served on the NAFTA implementation team and Martha Hall Findlay, director of the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary and former Liberal MP for the riding of Toronto Willowdale. They are both members of Carleton University's Expert Group on Canada-US relations. Colin, Martha, great to have you on the show. How are you both doing?
科林·罗伯逊: 很好。很高兴和您在一起。
Original English
Colin Robertson: Great. Good to be with you.
玛莎·霍尔·芬德利: 谢谢。也很高兴来到这里。
Original English
Martha Hall Findlay: Thank you. And it's great to be here.
主持人: 太棒了。那么,我们知道即将到来的《美加墨协定》(CUSMA)联合审查,关于协议的变更以及可能将其延长至2052年的讨论。科林,如果加拿大怀疑美国正在恶意谈判,它将如何处理这些谈判?
Original English
Host: Awesome. Well, let's start off as we know the upcoming CUSMA joint review our talks about changes to the agreement and possibly extending it to 2052. Colin, how does Canada approach these talks if it suspects that the US is negotiating in bad faith?
谈判策略与信任挑战
科林·罗伯逊: 嗯,你必须认真对待他们,即使我们认为他们是在恶意谈判,因为该协议占我们对世界出口的75%,占我们进口的约60%,这是我们最重要的贸易关系。你知道,我们正试图实现贸易多元化,但这仍然是加拿大最重要的市场。而且你无法改变地理。无论发生什么,它仍然将是加拿大一个主要市场。
Original English
Colin Robertson: Well, you have to take them seriously, even if we think they're negotiating in bad faith because this agreement accounts for 75% of our exports to the world and about 60% of our imports, it is our preponderant trading relationship. And as you know, we're trying to diversify trade, but this is still the most important market for us. And you can't change geography. And whatever happens, it's still going to be a major market for Canada.
主持人: 玛莎。
Original English
Host: Martha.
玛莎·霍尔·芬德利: 我认为视角略有不同。首先,我认为值得记住的是,这从未打算是一次重新谈判。这只是一个审查,以确定是否要进一步延长它。当然,你知道,这会为讨论提供机会。但是唐纳德·特朗普一直把这当作不是法律,也不是我们两国的法律。但它就是。所以,我们现在都接受这将是一次重新谈判,这感觉有点像我们落入了他们的圈套。而且我敢说,这是唐纳德·特朗普上次提出的协议,他说这是有史以来最好的协议,对吧?所以我认为在信任方面存在巨大的挑战。我不知道所谓的‘重新谈判’能在多大程度上让我们得到我们能依靠的东西。所以我们必须非常、非常小心。我认为,你知道,科林,你和我可能都听过这句话。我们必须认真对待唐纳德·特朗普,但不能照字面意思理解他。但我在可能略有不同的地方是,是的,这是与美国的贸易关系,占我们出口的75%。但是,你知道,在签署自由贸易协定之前,我们有一个相当不错的经济。我们与全国各地的许多美国人有着非常好的关系。如果你认识到这不仅仅是渥太华-华盛顿的事情。是的。这对我们来说是一项非常重要的协议。但它不是世界末日。而且我认为我们必须非常清楚地认识到,加拿大,你知道,我们不会因此而生或死。而且我认为如果我们继续说我们几乎会给特朗普更多。
Original English
Martha Hall Findlay: Slightly different perspective, I think. One, I think it's worth remembering that this was not ever supposed to be a renegotiation. This was just supposed to be a review to determine whether to extend it even further than it otherwise would. Of course, you know, that would open the opportunity to have discussions. But Donald Trump has been treating this as if it isn't the law and it isn't the law of our two countries. And it is. And so the very fact that we're all now accepting that this is going to be renegotiation feels a little bit like we've fallen into their trap. And I would argue this was the deal that Donald Trump the last time around, said was the best deal ever, right. So I think there's a massive challenge in terms of trust. I don't know how much so-called renegotiation is going to get us anything that we can count on. So we have to just be really, really careful. I think, you know, Colin, you and I have both heard this. We must take Donald Trump seriously, but we can't take him literally. But the other part of where I might differ a little bit is, yeah, it's the relationship with the United States, 75% of our exports. But, you know, we had a pretty decent economy before the free trade agreement was signed. We had a pretty good we have great relationships with an awful lot of Americans in different parts of the country. If you recognize that this isn't just an Ottawa-DC thing. Yeah. It's important. It's a really important deal for us. But it's not the end of the world. And I think we have to be really conscious of the fact that Canada, you know, we're not we're not going to live or die on this. And I think if we keep saying that we're almost going to be giving Trump more.
科林·罗伯逊: 更多让步,如果你愿意的话。
Original English
Colin Robertson: More leeway, if you will.
主持人: 话虽如此,科林,我很好奇,你知道,如果这些只是审查,也许不是谈判,有些人可能会觉得是这样,他们想知道,你认为美国可能会寻求哪些变更或调整?
Original English
Host: With that being said, Colin, I am curious, you know, if these are just reviews and perhaps not negotiations, some people might feel that is the case and they're curious what are the changes or adjustments that you suspect the US might be looking at?
美国可能提出的要求
科林·罗伯逊: 哦,我认为美国人会来找我们。从他们举行的听证会以及美国贸易代表每年发布的他们的烦扰清单来看,我们几乎都知道。这是我们乳制品。他们可能会针对我们的银行服务。他们可能会针对文化。他们肯定