Joe Weisenthal: Hello and welcome to another episode of the OddLots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.

Tracy Alloway: And I'm Tracy Alloway. Uh Tracy, it's April 9th, uh 9:05 a.m. There's a ceasefireish. It's sort of there's been something announced that's called a ceasefire. There does not seems to actually have been much of a cessation of fire, per se. Maybe it's slowed down a little bit. Some of the headlines this morning are about Israel continuing to strike hard in Lebanon, Iran saying that well, if there's no ceasefire in Lebanon, there's no ceasefire at all. But, you know, overall, at least as of right now, you know, the market, etc. We saw that huge drop in oil Tuesday night. You know, the market's still sort of still sort of buoyant, right? Still sort of resilient.

Joe Weisenthal: Well, I think the important thing for the purposes of this particular discussion is if you take a look at what's going on in the straight of Hormuz, it still seems to be shut more or less. Um, and shout out to the Bloomberg function, uh, ECAN Hormuz, you can see the number of ships that are going through that particular choke point and I have two as of today, which is basically not two today. There was some there were some headlines about how maybe even in the the good case they would let through 10 to 15 which is still sort of nothing compared to normal ship traffic. So like nothing's back to normal.

Tracy Alloway: I was going to say to your point I think the thing that's confusing everyone is we keep seeing these headlines about like a billion barrels lost of world supply or 20% of the world's oil supply now choked out because of the hormuz situation. And yet if you look at the oil price, you know, WTI, Brent, they're definitely up, but they're not up as much as you might think given the scale of disruption.

Joe Weisenthal: I think many people feel intuitively the price should be higher. And then of course there's the whole uh uh refined products situation which is more extreme and a lot of the prices that feel really extreme in general have happened in uh or we see it in East Asia whether it's like Singapore jet fuel etc or a lot of the headlines that you see about extreme rationing come from East Asia I forget which country was they were like you know they're doing that classic thing of only drive to work if your license plate ends in an odd number on this day. whatever.

Tracy Alloway: Very 1970s.

Joe Weisenthal: Yeah. And we're seeing a lot of these types of headlines, some in Korea, some Thailand, etc. So, it also then raises the question, you know, the the straight of Hormos is closed. Maybe it'll be open, but does this change future energy trajectory in some way? Does this mean there's going to be more comfort with coal mining over the long term? Does this mean that economies are going to try to accelerate decarbonization efforts more intensely? Could this be a huge boon for the American LNG industry where we know we're building a lot of export terminals etc. And if uh you know impair there's some sort of impairment to Qatari LNG then I don't know huge questions about even just setting aside market pricing right this second or this week the the the future of energy

Tracy Alloway: one thing about our current market moment is we are getting like a crash course in real time about the flow of energy throughout the world and as we will see in this conversation like it is still very much geographically con constrained east versus west and so as you Hey, the big question is whether or not the East kind of I don't know scrambles even harder to adapt to this.

Joe Weisenthal: Well, I'm very excited to say we do in fact have the perfect guest, someone who knows about all this stuff. Someone who's been on the podcast before, but we haven't talked to him in years, which is really uh sad because we really like the guy and so very excited to welcome back on to the show, Alex Turnbull. He's an investor based in Singapore, but he's also a researcher with the Australian National University focused on energy security. really knows the energy scene very well. Spends his time thinking about the present and future of energy. So, Alex, thank you so much for coming back on Outlaws.

Alex Turnbull: Thank you very much. It's great to be back on.

Joe Weisenthal: Yeah, really uh really appreciate it. Talk about like right now, you know, this phenomena that we talk about where yeah, prices are up but you know, by some measures still within some sort of historical range. Whereas the headlines that you see about rationing etc like this is extremely dire etc. give us your lay of the land from the econ from the from the Asian perspective from the perspective of East Asian countries like how dire are things just like right now without that without that flow

Alex Turnbull: terrible frankly the challenge right now for Asia is that most of their crude supply does come from the Middle East uh or there are some countries which do have some domestic production um Malaysia, China of course but broadly speaking Asia is a massive of crude importer and principally from the Middle East because it's the most approximate supply and generally it's the cheapest shipping distances and costs. So Asia is very heavily exposed right now and more acutely thinking about what the impacts might be how they might want to prefer than the United States of course which produces a lot of oil but still needs Middle Eastern grades for blending and refining. Also Europe which has access roads um quite readily.

Tracy Alloway: How much do the spot prices actually matter at this moment in time? Because you know you can look up something like Dubai Oman or some type of oil that you would assume would be maybe flowing into East Asia and you can look at the spot price but like if it's not actually moving does that like moving out of the straight of moves into Asia does that mean anything

Alex Turnbull: it does certainly for some grades. So for ammani crude can still be loaded and is being loaded those are real prices. prompt Brent uh these are and uh those are those those sorts of trades are are real. So you're often seeing even for loadings from Yanboo and Saudi Arabia OSPs which I guess you know indications of price are anywhere from 20 to $25 above whatever the prevailing bread contract is.

Joe Weisenthal: So in terms of like um the knock-on effects on the economy, we mentioned some of the rationing thing. Okay. Yes. This is very there's they're highly exposed to it. What are is it is it hitting now? Is it is the economic destruction already taking place like talk to us about like just sort of like I guess on the ground figuratively and literally. What are some of the ripple effects that we're seeing?

Alex Turnbull: You're certainly seeing serious constraints on consumption where they don't really have a lot of refining capacity and where there is they just don't have large amounts of crude storage. So places like the Philippines and Vietnam are already under some significant stress. Uh a lot of it is also driven by the fact it's just kind of a question of whether you can get credit lines to be able to pay these prices. And ultimately the decision of the refineries is if they don't have inputs they have to shut the refinery down which incurs a large amount of fixed costs and downtime and so forth. So a lot of these players are kind of living handtomouth and trying to get whatever they can to stay open as long as they can. So that's how you have this extreme willingness to pay for prompt caros in order to keep these assets operating and running. But then you know the futures curve is out 30 60 days and that's a long time in in the current Febru context where you could get resolution or not and so that that disconnect is going to remain I think so long as there is no sense of a clear path here

Joe Weisenthal: who's not getting energy because all right if there are some entities that are almost going to be price completely price insensitive they have to keep the lights on they they're going to just pay whatever. And so you get these huge uh short-term spot prices, but volume is volume. And so who is actually being forced to turn off the lights or not run a refinery or whatever because they're getting outbid? If there are fewer molecules, there are fewer molecules.

Alex Turnbull: Yeah. I mean, certainly less um high income countries in Asia, you're starting to see quite an acute crunch in the Philippines. So they've recently secured some cargos from China on a one-off basis. some Vietnam the same. You know, places like the Pacific Islands like they're in a not very good place. So, it's already starting to the demand destruction starting mostly cause mostly by income.

Tracy Alloway: So, you mentioned refineries there and one of the headlines that's come up recently is Asian refining margins slip into negative territory, which would seem like a bad thing if you're a refiner. And I take the point that you need to keep these assets going because it's hard to shut them down and then restart them again. But if you're not making any money, how long are these refiners actually going to keep going for?

Alex Turnbull: Well, for some Chinese uh teapot refineries, just smaller private ones, um they live in a different political slasheconomic context and if they are told to stay on, they will the you know depends on which in many of these countries you don't have purely market price fuels. So whether that's Vietnam or China, in places where you have market price in pass through like Australia, the um price of fuel is getting very expensive indeed.

Joe Weisenthal: So in in those situations basically where Tracy mentioned a refiner might be actually operating at negative margin. That's in an environment in which the retail price of fuel is not liberalized. There's a set the government sets the price of fuel or sets them banned or something like that and the refineries just have to keep operating until the next time that band is changed.

Alex Turnbull: Yes.

Joe Weisenthal: Okay. Got it. So what are you seeing? Um let's talk about you know right now is this is there what's happening with US LNG? Is it all being taken up by Europe? Is Europe is Asia trying to get in on the action or bidding for cargos? Like what's happening with American flows? uh American employers are going moving to Asia uh quite sharply right now.

Alex Turnbull: So Asian prices and spot or even the JKM futures are above European TTF or title transfer facility futures for uh the next period. That could change quickly, but at the moment, Asia has a much higher urgency and willingness to pay as they go into summer, higher power demand from cooling, air conditioning, and also just a much more acute dependence upon LG in certain countries. Uh, so in Europe, you've al so you're going into summer, you have this solar and wind, and it's not quite panic stations just yet. So I think Europe will be a little bit more slow to fill its storage but then by if this goes on till say June or July then that that's when the real uh panic will set in for Asia.

Tracy Alloway: How much of a role does Russian oil play right now in terms of replacing lost Middle Eastern supply?

Alex Turnbull: I mean, most of the Russian crude was already been sold anyway and it was been sold very heavily into Chinese refineries and teapotss. So, it's not like it some of it was sitting offshore when it was going through a period of more robust US sanctions. the the offshore barrels of oil and water has been dropping very sharply as all that crude has been absorbed into various places India uh China like I said um so yeah so I think I think that sort of that that that has provided something of a buffer to this shock because there was this backup of Russian crew that couldn't no one was quite sure whether they could pay for it without getting sanctioned by the US but of course that's melted away in the current context

Joe Weisenthal: you mentioned that um the Philippines has imported some gas from China and I'm curious like what has has China we know they've been a big accumulator over the years generally of natural resources and they have strategic stockpiles and so forth but right now what are they doing and are they trying to play some role in stabilizing or easing the crunch for the region overall

Alex Turnbull: I think they're being very strategic they're not certainly there's a there's more or less a control on export ports of oil products right now which is not very helpful for the region because they have over time been large exporters. Uh they are clearly doing this in a very targeted fashion and I would assume there's uh other considerations behind that.

Joe Weisenthal: Oh wait, say more.

Alex Turnbull: Uh well for example, China has territorial disputes with the Philippines and Vietnam and the South China Sea and they've now got something they want. So

Tracy Alloway: interesting. Okay, that makes sense.

Joe Weisenthal: Yeah, oil as geopolitical tool is a tale as old as

Tracy Alloway: as all the time.

Joe Weisenthal: I was going to say time, but I guess as as old as what, 200 years or something like that. Okay, so we were talking about the potential for an energy crisis to actually hasten decarbonization efforts in Asia. And this is something that came up before on an episode we did on China's teapot refineries. Are you seeing rumblings of that at the moment or are people still in sort of wait and see mode?

Alex Turnbull: Uh no, there's definitely been a notable pickup in certain areas where there was already a bit of momentum. So in Japan, they have been undertaking a number of nuclear restarts. They've been were moving very tentatively uh as the public got behind nuclear and the politics became less challenging. That that is all apparently accelerating now. So, Japan will push very hard on nuclear restarts and more importantly, the public polling is really strong for it. So, there's not a lot of political risk. And of course, Takayichi had a massive election win. So, she's in favor of it. The public's behind it and there's a matter of necessity now. So, I think that's something one could assume is only going to move faster.

Alex Turnbull: Oh, yeah. And then in Korea, there's also more of a push for nuclear restarts. So, that's that's moving quickly. that China is doing some very pointed stuff to try to reduce LG burns and use in chemicals. It's tricky in tricky to if you got a plastics plant that's kind of hard to do, but they're having a red-hot go at it. And similarly, you're also starting to see a staggering acceleration in EV adoption. If you do calls to auto dealers around Asia and ask them how much time electric vehicles stay on the lot, it's down to single days. And many of them are backorded now. So, uh, if there probably was an EV, are you calling up the car lots and asking them this?

Joe Weisenthal: Yeah, of course.

Alex Turnbull: Yeah, of course.

Joe Weisenthal: Wait, say more about this. And what would they have said? This is actually This is This is not This is new. Uh, this is new. This ground information, but talk about this like what would they have said a month ago? What are the type of dealers you're talking to? What would they have said a month ago? And what are they saying now? I mean, you know, January when there was

Alex Turnbull: Uh, you would see BYD cars, for example, couple dealers in Australia, Singapore, other parts of Asia, they would be on the lot for 25 plus days. You know, the inventory turns were kind of a bit slow and it the market did look kind of gluted. We're down to single digit days uh in most places now. So, anything China can produce out of the EV sector, I think we'll get sold this year. That's just really the the constraint is on the supply side, not on the demand side. Now,

Joe Weisenthal: I don't know the degree of granularity that you pay attention to American politics. Are you familiar with Do you know who Thomas Massie is? Does this name ring a bell?

Alex Turnbull: Uh yeah. Yeah. He's a

Joe Weisenthal: he's a Kentucky from congressman from Kentucky who drives a Tesla with a bumper sticker that said this this this Tesla is powered by Kentucky coal. So, he's like, you know, he's a politician from Kentucky Republican. is very pro coal but he's also pro Tesla so he has his coal powered Tesla is that basically the sort of near or medium-term future of Asia which is like okay LG is impaired BYDs are flying off the lot and so essentially we have a lot of like de facto coal powered Teslas driving around or sorry coal powered BYDs flying around

Alex Turnbull: to a certain extent yeah I mean it's also there's also very hard analytic math behind this in the sense that There are the Straits of Hormuz do not aside from the East West pipeline which looks like it got pretty badly hit today over the last 24 48 hours. There is no way for that oil to make its way out otherwise. So this is very different to 2022 where you have sanctions, you have this and that but the spice will flow if it can physically move or be moved by pipelines, by rail or what have you. And so in 2022, I was pretty sanguin about the impacts on the oil market because Russia's got a lot of pipeline capacity to China to through Kazakhstan and um there was clearly not really the appetite to do full-on shadow fleet sanctions uh that would be required to slow it down.

Alex Turnbull: In this case, you actually just can't get it out. That's all there is to it. And so if you look at that vulnerability with oil where 20 plus% of the market comes from the Middle East and LNG which is about the same numbers and then you look at say a big network flow graph model of global coal market which I've done the coal is not really dependent upon choke points but the biggest producers are places like uh you know first of all China produces an enormous amount domestically it's the world's largest producer. India does too. uh Australia, South Africa, these are all places with access to open ocean, no quirky straits. And so you don't really have to worry too much about whether some geopolitical event takes out coal. The the most reliable option of course is just producing stuff in country, whether that's solar, wind, you know, batteries, nuclear, but in a pinch and currently I think coal is going to have a bit of a comeback for that reason alone.

Tracy Alloway: Yeah. Um, setting coal aside for a second, when you look at alternate sources of energy, do you have like I don't want to say a personal favorite, but which one which one of them do you think comes out on top in the sort of medium to longer term from this particular situation?

Alex Turnbull: It's like asking someone, well, you know, what wine should I grow or what what what should I plant? I'm like, well, okay, where are you? So if you're anywhere close to the equator or have a good solar resource, solar is crazy cheap. And if you got it year round, batteries are also pretty cheap. There that's that's hard to beat. If you're somewhere in the Baltic or something, then it's wicked, right? So I think the appeal with solar, which is that you can roll it out very quickly, particularly with households. And it's interesting, you're already starting to see the impacts of Australia's government pushing um residential batteries. And that is that the intraday spreads in power in Australia are very subdued. And the gas fire generators are not really pricing the market anywhere near as often as they used to. And gas burns have actually collapsed as they have in California. So if you want to kind of decouple from gas prices, batteries plus storage, solar plus storage is is a very quick fix and can be rolled out very quickly and it seems to be working very well in Australia that the the price impact of this shock is vastly less than 2022 already.

Joe Weisenthal: This is really interesting. Talk about that spread. So in to some extent would it be fair to say that a proxy or a gauge of how well solar plus batteries is working or affecting a market is not in lower prices per se but in a diminishing spread between the highest and the lowest price of the day and that you have this like growing you know that it's a sign of sort of like pure power stability.

Alex Turnbull: Yeah. Yeah, I mean one one thing in power marks is the spark spread. So what is the what is the cost to get out of bed for a gas fired power plant? So you take the heat rate times whatever the gas price is and you work out how many hours a day over a week are effectively priced by gas and what happens what happened in Australia was we had a lot of solar and not much storage and still the peaks were still very expensive because that was the gas plants knew that could set the price. What's happened with this proliferation of storage is that gas no longer reliably sets the price in those hours and particularly in Australia where it's often somewhat oligopolistic market structure having a lot of residential batteries tied together in a in a mesh network which then bids into the market is really crushing those um those peaky times of the day and that has a disproportionate impact on average daily prices. The problem in places like the UK is there's a lot of renewables. There's really no storage and so they're not getting much benefit out of this because they still get priced on the margin by gas.

Tracy Alloway: So, one of the things that stood out from a previous episode we did on the energy situation with our Bloomberg colleague Javier Blast was he was talking about how the world is still very much divided between, you know, I I guess east of the Suez Canal and west of the Suez Canal. And if you're east at the moment, you have energy problems because of the situation in the straight of Hormuz. And if you're to the west, maybe the pressures aren't quite as acute just yet. And one of the things we keep hearing from the Trump administration is, well, we have a lot of oil here in the US. We are hashtag blessed in carbons and molecules and all of that. When would you expect or would you expect at all the pressures from the Middle East to start really filtering into the the western part of the world?

Alex Turnbull: Well, I mean, like I said earlier, you're already seeing it in uh LNG. So, Asian buyers out bidding European buyers for now. That's obviously pushing up prices for Europeans. You are seeing more and more tanker traffic from the Atlantic basin move towards Asia as Asia just is happy to there's maybe 10 or $15 more shipping costs, but they are willing to bid those barrels at this point. They they do not care. So the idea that any of these systems are going to be there are frictions caused by shipping and and time. But if the pool is and the need is that acute in Asia will absolutely find its way to the western hemisphere.

Joe Weisenthal: So there is this view and I think it really started with um well some people have had the dream for very long time. some of the great pioneers of the industry and then but then in 2022 with Russia's invasion of Ukraine there's like okay the future belongs to US LNG exporters that this is just we can keep growing export adding export terminals forever because there's just going to be all that we have all this gas and there's just incredible demand for it all around the world is that story at risk I mean again like if part of the thing that's going to happen is that around the world there is this uh and the political appetite for restarting nuclear and so forth is higher. Are there any weaknesses in the US LNG growth straight up line up forever story?

Alex Turnbull: I think there's a lot of problems with it. Um but they're mostly due to overall problems with gas. First of all, the gas turbines you use to build a power plant in Asia are the same ones you use to build a data center. And the cost of a turbine is now it's over $2,500 per kilowatt. It's was used to be about a,000. I mean this is this crunch in uh gas fired turbines is you know well well well noted I would say then you have the issue of so you you're kind of been your customers have been priced out of using gas for that reason alone. Then you have this geopolitical risk attached to supply from the Middle East. There is no certainty that that if there is some sort of toll on the Straits of Hummus that the Houthies might say, "Well, I'd like some of that too, please." And then we have another issue in the Red Sea. So I think while US supply is probably lower risk depending on the actions of the US government of course people are overall looking at this market and thinking well Is this really what I want to build my pallet grid on? And the answer is probably not.

Tracy Alloway: We're all full up on crazy. Yeah. Um so one of the reasons we wanted to speak to you is because you are in Singapore and you know in Singapore you can literally see the tankers sitting out there in the street um of Mala. talk to us about the general vibes in the city as you know a big hub of oil trading.

Alex Turnbull: It's it's very interesting. Um people in the physical business are seeing levels of stress that are extraordinary and then they look at their phones at equities and just they don't get it. Yeah, we don't get it either. Uh and it's also what is quite challenging is people who have been in the physical trade and dealing with this part of the world and have a deeper empathetic anthropological sense of how a toll is likely to be received in a lot of that world or whether that's a stable configuration. They have their doubts on whether we can get back to normal terribly quickly. So, so there's that. People in government are taking this extraordinarily seriously. They're very concerned. they are uh Singapore I think is more than most places has a real sense of what a wartime economy looks like due to historical reasons from the fall of Singapore and World War II and so I can tell that there is a there's a real gravity and then I think that's coming out certainly through some of the comments of the foreign minister Vivian Balakrishna

Joe Weisenthal: do you think I mean talking just pure politics like okay the US and Israel they start a war and suddenly everybody around the world immediately has to do rationing higher energy prices etc. You know, for years there was this talk like, okay, the US is going to pivot to Asia and try to have closer relationships with some of the non-China Asia countries and so forth. And just generally like does this we we hear about this the version of this conversation we hear most about is in Europe, right? And like what is the future of our relationship with the US? What is the Asian version of this conversation and thinking about the future of the US either as some sort of like business or political partner?

Alex Turnbull: The problem is this is that if this is what one side of politics is going to be about on a sustained basis, which is doing stuff which doesn't make a lot of sense and is very damaging and unpredictable. And the other side is maybe a bit of a wet noodle at times, but a bit more predictable. You kind of need to live through the full cycle, right?

Alex Turnbull: volatility and also you know politics animated by things which do not really animate Asia like evangelical Christianity or a desire for a catacon or fighting with the pope. Like if this is kind of what the US is now, then there is going to be a natural desire to insulate oneself from it as much as you humanly can and that there are real limits to what you can do. It's a big economy. It's very important but uh you know food fuel you know basic material flow security I think is going to be looked at very differently going forward and and I think there is a that that will lead to a drive towards much higher energy security which is not going to go well with US efforts to promote fossil exports for sure. [snorts] I I I think what people people have not appreciated well is that China responds well to strength. The US now responds well to strength. So, who does Trump not mess with? China. Because they've restricted rear earths and basically threatened to put Detroit into cardiac arrest and shrug their shoulders. And I think what Europe in particular is missing is that there are hands they could play that maybe are not intuitive to them, but doesn't mean they wouldn't work. The IRGC appears to have beaten the US to the most humiliating geopolitical defeat since looks like they're going to get a toll out of it. So what do like what is the takeaway from how to deal with the US going forward? But similarly with China, I mean they've been very aggressively coercive on materials, supply chains with technology. So I think this kind of a idea that as a midsized power you should be thinking that you need a pimp to keep you safe on the streets. I mean actually all the pimps are bad.

Joe Weisenthal: We need we need more panel. [laughter] All right. Um you want to leave it there? I think that's a good place. That's a all the pimp are bad strike me as a uh pretty good place to leave it. True words. True words.

Joe Weisenthal: Setting everything aside and there's a lot in in that conversation to talk about. I think a story that I want to do more coverage of is essentially like how solid is the US energy story actually. Yeah. Because I think there is this view that okay we're we have achieved oil independence basically. I know we still refine bring in some blends of crude from or kinds of crude from anywhere else but we have plenty of oil and then we're going to have plenty of gas and gas exports are going to go to the moon and I think that like you know Alex presents an argument and there are good reasons to think that maybe the future isn't going to be gas related and there are reasons to not um for economies to not build an LG dependent economy and then you know I think there are like questions about like well what what if the oil depletes a little bit faster than people think and so forth. So, I just want to do more on actual like stress testing the the assumptions about American domestic energy.

Tracy Alloway: Absolutely. And it's really interesting what Alex was saying about um just the EV dealership, right? Like you can see some of this starting to happen and like the alternative so far is not, you know, turning to US gas. It's not even buying a Tesla. It's let's buy a BYD. Right. The other thing just on like a pure basic oil and gas basis, I think to Alex's point earlier like there are these interconnections in the overall market which we haven't necessarily seen like the pressure from one half of the world come into the other half of the world just yet. And there's an open question over like how that happens. Sorry, the reason I'm not expressing myself well, but um one of the papers I was reading from Alex's Substack actually or one of his Substack contributions is a paper from 2022 called the myth of US energy independence. And so I think there is this like open question just on a pure hydrocarbon basis. Yeah. How much of the hash blessed America story actually is true?

Joe Weisenthal: Yeah. No, I mean like you know a lot of things don't seem to be going great. Some things are going better for the US than others these days. Some not so much. I do think a lot like well you know at least we have energy at least we're not like it's not on a relative basis. [snorts] Sure. But like if that were to change if they if they were to sort of get a reassumption sort of reassessment about America's energy stability or energy independence or that would be like a very that would be a really big story. I also just think you know it's very interesting that the nuclear reaceleration etc that's happening that there's political will now there's nothing like an energy crisis to change like political will towards nuclear power

Tracy Alloway: and on that political will his last point which is like what is the lesson that we keep learning is like strength matters and is you know it's like Trump um hasn't gone very hard against China because China went very hard against the US Iran may end up in a situation in which it comes out stronger er than it was two months ago where it actually is collecting a toll um you know getting a cash cow for the straight of Hormuz. So it's interesting is his point where it's like okay Europe other parts of Asia like what is the lesson that they learned from this and maybe the lesson is that sort of like biting your time and trying to be friendly and uh obese isn't maybe that's not the answer maybe uh maybe stronger lines are the answer for uh global diplomacy right now. Also, the pimps are bad, J. All pimps are bad. PSA pimps are bad. All right. Shall we leave it there?

Joe Weisenthal: Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at the stalwart. Follow our guest, Alex Turnbull. He's alexhbull.