We have some new updates on the White House in particular around the macro data that we've been missing for a while. White House gave us some updates on what's going to happen with that macro data.

Mr. Michael Burry once again is tweeting and remember that date that he talked about a couple of days ago, watch out for November 25th. I think we have some clarity on what's going to happen on November 25th.

Then macro, we got a lot of different macro stats, not just about inflation or the labor markets. Actually, in spite of inflation in the labor markets, institutional investors are buying.

Over the past couple of weeks, I think a lot of people have started to realize, and quite frankly, this is how Trump has also been crafting the narrative in terms of the interviews he's been doing and the tweets that he's been putting out around this concept of affordability.

This word has taken over. It is now one of the biggest concerns.

The White House today allegedly told sources in Politico that Trump is going to likely go on new basically speeches, campaign tours.

I mean, it's like it's like he's campaigning again, but you know, we're we're far away from the midterm elections, but he's going to go on campaign like speeches where you have these types of rallies, and the focus of those speeches is going to be on affordability and the economy.

The White House obviously is facing the stress or at least feeling the pressure on the idea that the economy is not affordable, and they're trying to get ahead of that narrative before the midterms come.

If the midterms come and the United States public does not feel the economy is affordable, Democrats might end up winning the House and the Senate.

What did Joe Biden say this morning to further make the argument for why affordability is now focused for the administration? Two things.

Number one, we are going to unveil substantial tariff reductions over the coming days on coffee, bananas, and several other items.

Trump also said this last night in an interview on Fox News. Basically making the argument that either we think prices are going up too much and we need to roll back the tariffs because tariffs could have an impact on price or demand is going down too much and in order to restimulate demand that we need to obviously lower prices which means we would have to pull back on some of the tariffs.

So you have Joe Biden and Trump making the argument that substantial quote unquote tariff reductions will be coming over the coming days.

Which theoretically for those that care about what this means in the markets could be a good thing because you could argue that the markets never liked that there were that many tariffs.

Then number two, what did Joe Biden say? And this goes back down to that $2,000 tariff dividend we've been talking about over the past couple days ever since Trump mentioned it on Sunday.

Quote, "A $2,000 rebate would be made for those making less than $100,000, but it has not yet been decided."

I don't know if a $2,000 rebate is a tax credit. I don't know if it's a STEMI check. We at least have a income threshold at this time by Joe Biden, which is $100,000.

We don't know if it's for singles, people who are married, if you're filing your taxes jointly, but it does seem like the White House is serious about this $2,000 rebate.

And again, it goes back to this question around affordability.

I think the White House is starting to recognize maybe things are not as affordable as they seem, or at least as they were perceived to seem. and maybe the American public are really feeling some pressure of that.

A lot of you guys in the comments over the past couple of days as well as we've been covering this topic have been saying that yeah, things are not as affordable or things feel like they're not that affordable.

And as a result, the White House wants to get on top of this.

Now, what does this mean for the broader macro economy?

We've been covering the labor market for a while on this channel trying to understand what's going on in the labor market.

And look, it's not the prettiest stats that we're getting. And part of the reason that it's not that pretty is because we don't have as much access to macro data because the government has been shut down for the past 40 days.

Here is Caroline Levit, press secretary at the White House, explaining how we're probably not going to get the October data.

Shutdown could end up decreasing fourth quarter economic growth by two whole percentage points.

The Democrat shutdown made it extraordinarily difficult for economic uh economists, investors, and policy makers at the Federal Reserve to receive critical government data.

The Democrats may have permanently damaged the Federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released, and all of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policy makers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period.

Now, two things she says there that I think are really interesting.

Number one, she said the shutdown could take away Q4 GDP by 2% which is wild.

Because to grow out of this deficit and this debt crisis we're in, you know, Joe Biden has been claiming we'll grow upwards of 4% if we're not going to grow anywhere near that next quarter because the shutdown and that's not necessarily the best thing in the world.

But outside of that, she says, "Hey, based on this shutdown, we're likely not going to get October data."

Now, October CPI and uh jobs data is really, really important.

Why is it important? Because we're getting some private data from ADP.

This is what we got this morning. US private employers cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week over the past four weeks ending October 25th.

This brings the four-week total to -45,000 which contrasts with the ADP's monthly report which showed that private sector payrolls rose by 42,000.

Goldman Sachs is also saying that estimates uh the estimates that they have assume that payrolls in the month of October fell by 50,000 which is very similar to what now ADP is claiming of 455,000.

This is the second largest drop, if this is accurate, since 2020.

We need the BLS. We need the Bureau of Labor of Statistics. We need that data. Some of this data might be true, some of it might not be true. We need jobless claims. We need to know how many people are filing for unemployment. We need to know the unemployment rate.

We're likely not going to get it in October, which begs the question, how strong from a um trustworthy perspective is the data going to be in November?

And you know, obviously the Fed is going to have to really think about this.

But one of the reasons we really need this data is because if you look at the Fed probabilities on the CME Fed watch tool for a December rate cut, we are now at 65%.

That is the lowest rate cut probability odds in the past couple of weeks.

And obviously bad labor market data would make the Fed more likely to cut.

But also for investors, we need to know that there's like potentially bad labor market data so we can understand how to navigate our investments.

Overall, I think at its core, I know we've been talking a lot about the bifurcation of the economy. I think it is a very real thing.

Yesterday, we talked about how Fannie Mae is thinking of reducing credit limits um from 620 down on your credit score for you to be able to qualify for a mortgage.

We talked about the fifth year mortgage that Trump has been floating.

Uh another stat that came out today or another headline that came out today, uh the Trump administration is looking to normalize portable mortgages, allowing Americans to keep their interest rate term and lender when moving to a different home.

Aka, if you got a mortgage rate of 2.75% in 2020, you could theoretically move to a new house today and keep that same interest rate.

All of this could be done by the Federal Housing Administration.

It's possible. We've done it in the past, aka 2008, but maybe that's not the right thing to do.

And so, I think a lot of questions are there more than answers.

And ultimately, we're going to have to see how these questions do get answered over the coming weeks when we finally get this data.

But the number one thing is that we need this data.

Now, I don't think that means flip bearish.

And based on the next segment we're going to talk about in terms of macro stats, I think there's a lot of bullish data in spite of some of the bearish undertones of the broader economy.

But it is something we all have to care about because eventually if this stuff does end up becoming a bigger issue, it would be important for us to know about this stuff.

Okay, macro data. What do we've got going on?

So the labor market and inflation is something we have to care about.

Um obviously if the Supreme Court rejects the Trump tariffs, which we talked about over the past couple days, that could also put a lot of pressure on the markets or it could be good for the markets because that means that you know the uh the market likes that tariffs are gone.

This house is voting on the shutdown today.

So hopefully tomorrow we get the government officially reopened.

In spite of the shutdown, tariffs, inflation, labor markets, institutions are buying.

Here's what Bank of America had to say. Institutional clients were net buyers of US equities last week, led by 4.3 billion in ETF inflows.

Now, they sold 2.6 billion of individual stocks, but they were net buyers of overall ETFs.

Meaning, hey, maybe I sell some AMD and Nvidia, but I get exposure to SMH, which is the um semiconductor ETF.

So, you have a lot of ETF inflows coming in, even if single stock purchases are down.

And this was the largest buy, by the way, last week. 4.3 billion ETF inflows since December of 2022.

December was basically the bare market. 2022 was the basically the bottom of the bare market in 22.

Uh, so a lot of money started coming in as people started recognizing it was the bottom and wanted to start taking a risk.

The fact that we're having more or the the the most amount of equity inflows in terms of ETFs since two years ago is quite incredible.

And to me, it sports the broader thesis that Tom Lee has been leading uh laying out, which is this idea that fund managers are underexposed and they are not beating the S&P 500.

I think Tom Lee stats is 75% of fund managers are um underperforming their benchmark.

Either they're going to need to take the market down with them to be able to perform to their benchmark or they're going to need to chase and theoretically they might be chasing based on this data.

The other part that was interesting about this is that hedge funds and retails were actually net sellers. Institutional investors were net buyers.

So hedge funds and retail sold last week.

Outflows from tech were the highest and inflows into staples and healthcare were the greatest.

I also think this is a really important point.

Like right now the S&P 500 is down 0.02% on the day.

Uh Rocket Lab's down 2%. Apple's down 1%. CoreWeave down two. Nebius is down five. Palantir down four. Iren down three. Nvidia down almost half a percent.

The S&P is down 0.02%.

It's almost like the S&P is not really noticing that there's any pain in the tech sector, although a lot of tech stocks are red.

Why is that important? And why is that, in my opinion, net bullish?

Well, that means a lot of that money is going into something else.

And I think as painful and annoying as it is to see Robinhood down, even though I think Robinhood just flipped green, Robinhood was down the majority of the day. Robinhood went to 128. Robin right now 132. It's actually green.

As annoying as it is to see like the stocks that we love and own down, the fact that the broader market is holding up to me is incredibly bullish.

And I am trying to mature more as an investor and not get as emotional about my individual equities going down and being more concerned with the overall health of the market.

I think you know as all of us get older, we care about the actual health of the economy in the market and then hopefully our stocks do well at the same time.

So if Robinhood's down on the day, which is not, or uh you know, and Nvidia is down on the day, and Eli Lilly is up, which is crushing it today, or JP Morgan is up, which is also crushing it, financials and healthcare is up today, because maybe people want some more safety in those trades, I'm all for it.

Because at the end of the day, the capital will eventually find the companies that are executing and growing at some of the highest levels and have phenomenal products and services that they offer to the world.

That doesn't mean those stocks have to go back to the moon or get back to all-time highs anytime soon.

But if the S&P 500 was down today, talk about 660, 670, you know, we were pushing 659 last week on Friday. But that would be an issue because that means money is just leaving the market.

I'd rather have money going to healthcare and leaving tech, but staying in the market and eventually you have multiple rotation cycles, which to me makes it a healthy bull market.

So I think some of this Bank of America data on the rotation into the broadening of this bull market is not bad and it makes a lot of sense for institutional investors to continue buying.

Last stat for you guys. As for Bloomberg, ETF inflows continue to be strong.

Going back to that argument about institutional inflows from Bank of America, 13 billion yesterday alone, 40 billion for the past 5 days, 8 billion per day, and now 1.16 trillion year to date.

I know there's plenty of concerns around the labor market and inflation, but the buying pressure continues to be strong, and the rotation of that buying pressure also feels very healthy.

All right, last thing we're going to talk about today, Mr. Michael Burry, what is going on there?

Well, Burry tweeted last night and ironically, I was actually watching The Big Short.

I've watched this movie many times. I I actually really do like the movie and you know, I'm a stock market junkie, so these types of movies are very uh very interesting to me.

And Burry was in the news, so I decided to, you know, I'll watch it again.

I skipped around a bunch of scenes. I don't really feel like watching the whole thing, but I started watching parts of the movie.

And um while I'm watching it, Burry puts out this tweet.

By the way, after I came back from my workout in the gym and I was in the sauna yesterday, there were three guys talking about CoreWeave even Nvidia and I thought that was crazy.

I like I escaped to the gym and to the sauna to not think about the market.

So, the fact that they were talking about that was kind of crazy.

But after I came back, I started watching the Big Short and then Burry tweets a picture of Christian Bale lying down on the floor in the Big Short and the caption is me then, me now. Oh well, it worked out. It will work out.

Essentially making the argument that when everyone doubted me in 2006 2007 but I was net short because I knew this thing was going to collapse I kind of just sat back laid down and was like screw it eventually I will be right uh and Burry's basically implying the same attitude I mean quite literally saying it worked out it will work out um me then me now oh well making the claim that he is making a similar proclamation around AI or whatever he thinks is a bubble now and uh he is laying back realizing that no one else sees what he's seeing just like in 2008. But eventually it will work out.

Burry's basically implying the same attitude I mean quite literally saying it worked out it will work out um me then me now oh well making the claim that he is making a similar proclamation around AI or whatever he thinks is a bubble now and uh he is laying back realizing that no one else sees what he's seeing just like in 2008. But eventually it will work out.

But eventually it will work out.

Obviously I disagree.

Uh I think there's a lot of different nuances to why I disagree.

The number one reason is because of AMD.

Well, it's not the number one reason, but it's the number one reason as of today.

AMD upgraded to 380 at Melius.

Uh the margin guide was a real positive surprise.

While 35% revenue CAGR growth backs a double digit share in AI semis and networking, AMD seems to be clearly targeting a 1 trillion market cap with these aspirations.

We are raising our 2027 2028 estimates and target to 380 from 300.

The cool thing about AMD and we talked about it yesterday was not only the margin um improvements, gross margin profile going up, which really got the street excited.

That's why AMD is up 7%. I think at one point it was up 10% on the day.

The other thing that's cool is that they're planning to grow 35% for the next five years at a company at their size.

Being able to say for the next five years, so call it till 2031, we're going to grow 35%.

I mean, what does that mean for Nvidia? What does that mean for Micron? What does that mean for TSMC?

If if AMD is doing 35% CAGR grow over the next five years, I think Nvidia is going to be able to grow minimum of 35% over the next 5 years if not more.

And that makes this very exciting and that's why I think Burry's ultimately not necessarily correct on this.

Because the large cap trade around Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, AMD, etc. these companies that are producing some of the most important technology in the world where we have yet to see the ROI, yet to see the real impact on humanity, although we're getting close to beginning to see what that will look like.

It's very real.

I think what we're seeing is something very real from these companies that are coming out and spending the amount of money they're spending based on the ability for them to generate an ROI on all that spend.

Having said that, uh, if you look at Burry's bio and now, which changes every day, but this is the new bio, official X account for the big short, Michael Burry dubbed Cassandra by Warren Buffett, now Unchained blog launches November 25th. Stay tuned.

When I saw that today, I was like, "Oh, so this was for a blog.

Is he Is he building a blog?

Is you know, I guessed the book a couple days ago. I guess I was wrong. It's not a book, it's a blog.

Uh, but it seems like Michael Burry's coming out with a blog and it starts November 25th.

Now, he might be net short AI and still hate everything that's going on in the overall AI ecosystem, and he wants to consistently publish his research about it through a blog.

But it seems like a lot of the hype over the past couple of weeks has been getting ready for this November 25th launch, which is going to be his blog as per his bio.

And maybe a lot of the hoopla that's been happening and a a lot of the, you know, analysis he's been putting out there has been primarily driven to promote his blog.

So look, I wish him the best of success with the blog.

I don't know how it's going to go. I don't know what it's going to focus on.

But at the end of the day, I think there is something very fundamental with the technology that's happening right now.

And by the way, I'm not saying that just for the hell of saying that because like do I want the bull market to continue? Yes.

Do I also think that it's very healthy to be skeptical around the nature of this bull market, particularly around the debt financing that's going on with uh these AI data center buildouts? Yes, I think that's very healthy.

Yes, I think that's very healthy.

I mean, you look at a stock like Oracle.

Oracle was at 230 before they had their massive Q2 in September.

Stocks at 227 now after falling from being 350.

I don't know the most about Oracle.

I do think that's healthy because Oracle just issued 40 billion of corporate debt.

Their credit default swaps are the highest they've been in two years.

So obviously you've got some part of the private credit market saying, "Hey, we're going to purchase some insurance just in case this whole data center thing doesn't work out for Oracle."

And I think that's healthy.

Oracle should have to prove they have the revenue, prove they can get the opening I 300 billion uh revenue in terms of that RPO growth that they had for the contract.

Like they should actually generate a lot of those earnings.

They're basically giving up their free cash flow over the next couple years because of this debt to be able to say there's a meaningful ROI on what we're doing.

And those stocks correcting like a Nebius CoreWeave etc. Like I think that's a good thing.

Those stocks are still up.

I mean Nebius and Iren are up 2 3x here today even with this 10 15% correction.

I think it also gives a lot of people opportunities that are interested in the space like myself.

I did my Nebius deep dive um on Substack and I got interested bought a position yesterday added a little bit more today at 9390.

I mean, I I'm still asking myself, how big of a position do I want this to be?

But if I could get back to 75 or 70 and erase the entire 3 months from the Microsoft deal, which I hope that doesn't happen because I know people own Nebius and I don't want that to happen.

But if it does, I mean, I wouldn't hate that because I would have an opportunity and Nebius would still be up 2x or I think it was like 1.2x year to date if that were to happen.

So, I think it is healthy for us to all be skeptical about what's going on with data centers.

Healthy for us to look at the amortization schedule and the unit economics around GPU depreciation.

And it's also healthy to say I'm going to nibble a little bit of a dip if I'm interested in the space and not wait for the absolute bottom, which is why I bought some more Nebius today.

But I think to say all of it's fake, especially if you're saying all of it's fake to promote a blog, which I mean I don't know if that's what's happening here, but I I think that's the wrong take.

And maybe I'll be wrong, but if if if if it's the right take, I want to know because I don't want to be invested in these names, right?

All of us would want to know if it's all a bubble, if it's all fake, we all want to know about that.

But I think the reason that we continue to believe in it is because when you do a bit more research, it just feels like there's something more real than not, especially given all the earnings growth we've seen.

And as a result of that, I continue to stay on the bullish side.

But nonetheless, you're going to have different views, different perspectives.

And I think it's healthy to have those different views and perspectives.

All right, that's it for me.

Thank everybody for listening and watching.

Again, thank you for all the support on the daily recap.

I see the comments every day, and people really are appreciating this 20 to 25 minute recap at the end of the day every day, and I continue to enjoy doing it.

I mean, it really does keep me sharp and focused and compile all the news in a way that allows me to understand what's going on.

And uh yeah, I really enjoy doing it.

So, thank you everybody for being here.

Thank you for continuing to listen.

I'll see you guys tomorrow on another episode of the other week.