Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. We are live. It is Friday, October 31st. Happy Halloween to everybody. I did not dress up because this week has been one of the most wild weeks this year. I have barely went outside this week. So, nine-hour streams basically seven to eight hour streams every day outside of the nine hour stream. I mean, I just don't have an outfit. I'm sorry. This was a wild week. I guess you can call me a stock market YouTuber who is absolutely exhausted after a week of earnings.

But it's worth it given S&P 500 right here is at alltime highs. And we've got Amazon, which we'll talk about that absolutely demolished earnings. Amazon right here, 252.65. I guess I dressed up as rich on Amazon today. That's I guess you can say a lot of us dressed up with that. Yeah, we're live and we're here for the market open. Thank you everybody for being here. I hope everyone has been having a good week. It's been a long week. It's been a long freaking week. There's just been so much going on.

And again this has been an exciting week, but we're getting into the home stretch of 2025. So this is one of those weeks that we really needed to have as a good week. And we needed big tech earnings to be good. We needed the Fed to cut. We you know all of us this is real money at the end of the day. I know we all look at numbers and candlesticks go up and down, but at the end of the day, every dollar of these stocks up or down does affect all of us in some way and affect our families. So, we needed a good week and it looks like we got a relatively good week and hopefully we can end out the week pretty strong on this Friday.

Even yesterday when we had that 1% decline on the S&P, which I don't even know why. I don't think there's any meaningful reason for why we had that draw down. We're back basically up 1% in the pre-markets. Everything that we lost, we are pretty much getting back. And it's likely because Amazon and Apple just had monster earnings. Apple, by the way, 276. At one point, it hit 284. So, they had an they had a great earnings, then they crushed it. We'll talk about that. Reddit, it's up 10%. Amazon obviously 13%. Massive, massive day. They crushed it. Meta starting to recover a little bit from the lows at 650. Palantir, I think it's going to try to push 200 when the market opens, which will be great to see. Nvidia back above 200. Tesla 446. Robin Hood 141.

Bitcoin and Ethereum starting to get a little bit more recovery. Bitcoin at 109.6. It fell to 105 yesterday. Ethereum fell to 3,700 back at 3850. I know they've been lagging. And Bitcoin's got to have like a $7,000 candle to end green for October. Um, but regardless, you do have a little bit of momentum coming back in the pre-market, which is very nice to see as we get into it.

Next week's also going to be crazy. Monday, we've got Palantir. That's a big one. We also have Grab on Monday. So, you know, and then we have Hood I think on Wednesday. So, it's just going to be a massive massive week next week. This was really important for the stock market next week is really important for my portfolio. Also really important for a lot of people that are long those names. And we are pretty much done with 40% of big tech earnings or of the S&P 500 earnings. And so, this was one of those weeks we had to get through. And it was a long week, but we got through it and we are here.

Let's get started. Thank you everybody for being here. Let's get into it. Let's start off with Amazon. We got to start off with Amazon. We got a bunch of different macro stuff to talk about, but Amazon is the big one today. And let's cover what happened. So, first of all, congratulations to everyone in Amazon. I think on the channel publicly, we started really talking about Amazon basically a month ago. Call it early September.

And the reason for that, it kind of just piqued my interest. It was that the stock was negative year-to- date, although the NASDAQ was up almost 20%, the S&P 500 was up 11%. And so this was the post I made. Yeah. Towards the middle of September, as you can see right here, and the two reasons I thought it was going down, tariffs might affect their commerce business, AWS not as exciting.

And the thesis simply was, and there was a lot of comments and engagement under these posts that just like it doesn't deserve to be trading at these levels. And this was at 222. That's when I initiated the position. It ends up going down to 212. And I think all of us kind of came together and said, "This is one of the most important companies on the planet. Do they deserve to be treated the way they're being treated?" And it's technically yeah, they do if they can't get the growth from AWS. And so what did Jassy deliver yesterday? He delivered the growth on AWS.

And that is kind of what changed anything. I mean, sometimes it's really simple. Sometimes it's one thing that the street needs for a change. And once you give what the street needs, everything changes. Online stores up 10% year-over-year. Third party seller services up 12% year-over-year. Amazon web services 20%. That's the big one. Physical stores 7%, subscriptions 11%, and then advertising 24% at an $18 billion quarterly run rate, which is just incredible. I mean, we don't talk enough about the advertising business, but high margin business and Amazon continues to crush it.

Now, what did Jassy say? He said, "We haven't seen this type of AWS growth since 2022." That's it. As soon as he said that, it was over. And I don't know if Amazon's going to hold the 14% move right now. I definitely think it's going to be harder to go back to 220. But I do think that the reason it's actually maintaining this momentum in the pre-market and it's not getting faded away is because when Jassy says, "Guys, we have not seen this type of growth in almost three years. The street pays attention."

And what does the street care about the most? They care about the one thing we've been talking about, which is AWS acceleration. The whisper number, by the way, they came in at 20.2%. The whisper number was 18.9%. So, they beat the whisper number. The whisper number is like the number that Wall Street is literally whispering about, but is not the actual number they're expecting. When you beat that number, you win. When you beat that number, you win. And it's really hard to lose.

Jassy on the call said, "Another 1 gigawatt coming in Q4 and expect to double load capacity by 2027. Power remains the main industry bottleneck on the Trainium demand. Our custom Trainium 2 chips are fully subscribed with 30 to 40% better price performance than competitors. They're basically building a little bit of a mini Nvidia inside of Amazon, trading at half the valuation of Nvidia. Obviously, they don't have as much growth as Nvidia, but the point is you're getting something that barely is up here to date. Now, it's up around 14%. And the moat is a moat that truly just can't be denied, and it is one of those companies that's going to be around for a long time.

Demand remains strong across large and midsize customers. Trainium 3 will preview later this year with full volumes expected in early 2026. I mean again, this was one of those companies that's like it's not going anywhere. It could become a cornerstone of the portfolio at 250 over the long term. It likely is still cheap, right? I probably wouldn't chase it today after the run that it's having. But nonetheless, if you're ready to hold on to this for a long time, then this company's going to be here for a long time.

Capex, they're going to be spending 125 billion this year. So that's up from the expectations of around 118 billion. And then for fiscal year 2026, they are projecting to spend more than 125 billion. So you've got the capex taken care of, which is really good for the semiconductor names, especially Nvidia. I think that's why Nvidia is up right now. They're not giving you a dividend or a share buyback. So they can only reinvest into the business because they don't have to reward external shareholders. And the street's rewarding them for that because they got the growth. Like if you're not going to give us a dividend or share buyback, give us the growth. Jassy deliver the growth.

Uh, and then number three, their operating margins were down from 11.8% to 9.4%, but from my understanding, this was more so because of the layoffs and one-time severance charges. So imagine operating margins are still at 12%. Again, if they increase that closer to 15 20% over the next five years, you're talking about a company that's likely going to be doing 200 billion in operating income. And that is a company that probably gets closer to the $4-5 trillion valuation, which is basically a double from here. And so it's not that scary to say, "Hey, I'm going to hold on to Amazon stock for a long time."

Now, operating income was flat year-over-year. That is true. And free cash flow is not growing the way Google and Microsoft is growing. The one reason they beat on EPS, by the way, they beat by 30% is because they recognized their investment from Anthropic. So again, they have a $9.4 billion gain from Anthropic and another startup they invested in and that allowed them to beat on EPS. But quite frankly, even if they missed on EPS, I don't know if the stock would be up 15%, but I don't think it would be down 15%. And the reason for that is because the only story that really mattered was AWS. This is literally the only thing the street wanted to see. And the fact that the street got it and they got it at a number that was way above expectations, that lets you know the demand for AI workloads is strong and Amazon is fulfilling that demand.

And as a result, you're getting some great momentum as the stock continues to move. So very very nice to see. Congrats to everyone at Amazon. This was a big retail victory. Uh definitely a big retail victory for a lot of us that came together. So many of you in the chat tagged me in post and sent me DMs and said, "Hey, you got to look at this. You got to look at this." And like it was, look, Amazon's not the hardest stock to own. It's just whenever a stock is down relative to its peers, you start to feel like an idiot buying this stock over the winners because it's obviously not the winner at the time. But that's when the opportunity is. That's where the alpha is. And I think, you know, the longer everyone invests, the more they realize the alpha is where everyone is not looking at. And thankfully, people weren't looking at freaking Amazon for the past two months. And as a result, you know, people got to take a position in the company and now we get to benefit from the gains. So absolutely incredible, great Amazon earnings and congrats to everyone who is in Amazon as well.

All right, Apple. So let's talk Apple. Apple crushed it as well. So, the big thing about Apple that crushed it, which I really didn't expect, is that they increased their guidance for Q4. And that guidance ended up getting increased to 10 to 12% revenue growth. Apple has not done 10 to 12% revenue growth in almost two years if I'm not wrong. They've always been at 3 to 4%. And so, as a result, you know, we just haven't seen that type of revenue growth. And the fact that we got it was very exciting. 5% EPS, 1.85 versus 1.77, and then 102 versus 102 billion.

Revenues up 8% year-over-year EPS is up 13. Uh Tim Cook basically said he's really excited for iPhone 17. He's really excited for the momentum they're seeing in China, even though they missed on China this quarter. iPhone also missed. It was a very slight miss, but nonetheless, it missed. And he's also very excited for the overall AI opportunity that exists long term. And as a result, the street ate it up. I mean, the street absolutely ate it up.

This is a company that's trading at a pretty aggressive multiple in my opinion for the lack of growth that they're putting up, but they also have 132 billion in cash. They are consistently buying back their stock. And at the end of the day, this is probably not a company that's going to be going away anytime soon in regards to the level of distribution that they have with consumer devices. Would I be buying Apple here? No. But then again, I haven't been buying Apple at 198 outside of in the ETF. So, it doesn't matter if I'm buying it or if you're buying it. It matters if the market's buying it. And given Apple is 7% of the S&P 500. It really matters for the S&P 500 if people are still buying it.

And remember, people have owned Apple for the past couple decades. And as long as they're not selling and they're continuing to hold on because they see that future belief in what Apple can become, Apple really having a moat outside of its numbers, but more so having a moat in terms of the scale and velocity of its business. I think that's why Apple continues to trade the way it trades.

Take a look at this stat right here. Capex now for Google, Amazon and Microsoft in one quarter was 120 billion. Apple spent 12.7 billion for capex in the whole year. So basically Apple's saying hey you guys can spend all the money and fuel Nvidia's profits. We are going to benefit from whatever you guys do by integrating you into our distribution which is also another reason to get excited about Apple because they don't have to waste the money on Capex because they don't necessarily have to build out old models.

Now, theoretically, a couple years ago, if they decided to build their own Apple LLM, would that have been the right choice? Maybe. Maybe that would have changed kind of how we think of Apple as an AI company, but they didn't. And as a result, they'd rather buy back their stock and let Meta and OpenAI do it and Google and just partner with them in the future.

So, I think overall, as an investor, there is not a better week you could have had outside of the conclusion we got to it yesterday. Now, obviously, Meta could have really helped the week go a lot better, but then again, in my opinion, I think the street is being stupid about Meta. They had to pay their taxes, and so they had an reaction to the tax charge off. And then number two, they're mad that Meta is spending on capex. I think you just got to trust Zuck's that the capex is going to play out. And if you don't trust Zuck, then you don't invest. But if you do, and you know, Meta now trading at 20 times 2026 earnings, it does feel relatively cheap given they're likely going to continue to grow at 25 to 30%.

So, you got Google that crushed it, Microsoft that crushed it, Amazon that demolished it, Google right there at 285, Meta that did crush it, although the optics didn't look the best, and then Apple that continued to crush it. I mean, this is what you needed. This is really what we needed. And then you got the rate cut. So, the only thing left for this year now to kind of keep this playing out is one more rate cut in December, which, you know, JPOW can say whatever we want, but we're likely going to get it. The number two is Nvidia. But I think we can sit back a little bit and at least, you know, allow the market to consume these big tech earnings and not be that anxious about if these companies will crush because they absolutely crushed.

And and I think the punchline to everything we're seeing, by the way, Amazon was upgraded to 315 at Morgan Stanley and upgraded to 335 at Evercore. So, you're getting upgrades across the board as well. I think the thing that's the most important about this is that for the past 11 quarters, Google has beat, Amazon has beat, Microsoft has beat, and Meta has beat. And and I think the simple argument everyone is starting to realize is that the hyperscalers will probably go down as the easiest investments of our lifetime. It is very hard, in my opinion, for us to find easier investments than the companies that impact every single part of all of our lives on a day-to-day basis, have the free cash flow, the net income, the balance sheets to support their R&D and their growth, and ultimately are companies that are likely just going to keep getting bigger.

which is starting to make me think about 2026 portfolio allocation and a decent part of that allocation might be to go a little heavier into the hyperscalers, especially on these dips, versus having to find that next big stock, which yes is very important if you want the like increased 3x 4x alpha in a year or two years but if you want a steady consistent gain while being able to sleep at night and not have too many worries it seems like the hyperscalers are important.

shutdown is still here we don't have the shutdown resolved yet I mean Trump's been tweeting all night about how the Democrats need to fix stuff and I don't know when that stuff's going to get resolved. I mean you are starting to get a lot more people in the country just what I'm seeing an anecdotally get a bit more upset and wondering why the hell is this happening and you got each side trying to blame the other side but I don't know we're in what day 30 almost of this. So hopefully this gets resolved but obviously the market doesn't care about it. Eventually it will but we're going to hopefully need them to resolve this pretty soon.

Netflix did do a stock split. Yes. 10 to 1. I don't know why they announced it today or yesterday night. I feel like they should have done it on earnings, but now we'll be able to buy 100 shares of Netflix for $11,000, not $111,000, which is nice. It's not that easy to buy 100 shares for 100 grand, but now we can get them for 11 grand. So Netflix will be splitting their stock. I think the effective date is like in a couple weeks, but we will be seeing this stock split pretty soon.

All right, let's talk about Burry. So, for those that haven't seen, Michael Burry is back. This is his Twitter account. And Burry has not tweeted since January 31st, 2023. The last time that Burry tweeted, he said this, sell. The NASDAQ has doubled since that.

It's kind of crazy, you know. He said one word sell. He deleted that tweet after on January 31st, which it was not literally the bottom, but it was very close to the bottom. The bottom was October 2022. and he disappeared. He has not tweeted in the past two years. Then yesterday he tweets, "Sometimes we see bubbles. Sometimes there is something to do about it. Sometimes the only winning move is not to play."

Very poetic argument by Mr. Michael Burry. Look, here's my perspective on this. Number one, you need a wall of worry. You need people to be afraid. If you don't have people that are afraid, then you're not going to be able to have a bull market because we get too euphoric and then we top out. I think people like Burry coming out and saying, "Hey, it's a bubble." essentially that's what he's implying is bullish because you have people that are scared and you need those people that are scared at the end of the day to create that wall of worry.

Number two, the guy is probably annoyed that he missed it and I know he's had some trades with Estee Lauder and Baba etc. But if you had just leaned in to America and you know Burry's not a horrible stock picker if you had picked a couple of the Mag 7s he would have been up multiple hundreds of percent. So it's like obviously he's annoyed that he missed it and it's like objectively you missed it. It's like you missed it, right? like after two years you can't keep saying it unless we go back to 3650 on the S&P and is that possible? Sure. But then when you look at the earnings growth that would not make any sense, right?

So like at its core when you said to sell you didn't anticipate the type of earnings growth you would see. You didn't anticipate the type of AI revolution, the capex buildout we would see. Just to say all of that over the past two and a half years was pure bubble. I mean it doesn't make a lot of sense. And so I think he's obviously annoyed. He's angry and as a result he's now trying to voice that frustration by telling everybody, hey, it's time to sell and you should be scared of what's going on in the market. I think this is a bullish signal because again, you need people to be afraid and worried in order to get that type of momentum that really takes us higher.

Let's talk about Jensen. So, the videos I'm about to show you are going to scream toppy, but you just have to remember it's freaking Jensen and he gets to do what he wants because he's Jensen. So, let's start off with a couple of these videos. First of all, this is Jensen with the CEO of Samsung and Hyundai doing shots while locking each other's arms.

The next video right here is, well, take a look at this. You got Jensen in Korea talking to a crowd of people saying, "Is anyone investors?" And then that same crowd responded by showing off their phones with Nvidia stock price. You could tell Jensen's having such a good time. Like people in a crowd are treating him like a rockstar. They're pulling up their phone to show their stock prices of Nvidia. And Jensen's like, "Wow, look at that. Look at that. Look at the stock. Look what it's doing." I mean, obviously it feels kind of toppy, but nonetheless, Nvidia has been putting up the growth. And I think Jensen deserves to be able to bask in the glory of this moment and have this much fun because he's made people filthy rich.

Now, one thing if people don't know about South Korea, and I found this out actually over the past couple months, South Korea is one of the biggest countries when it comes to not only investing, but when it comes to two things, option trading and DGEN investing. When I mean DGEN investing, I mean communities that form in South Korea that come together to be able to bet on a stock has happened for various companies over the past really decade and it's only accelerating. Nvidia being one of them.

Now, why is he in South Korea? Well, he's signing some deals and he's talking to the media in South Korea and, you know, continuing to make the argument for why Nvidia deserves to be at the spot that it is. He's making a couple of deals with SK Hynix and Samsung. Here's what he was answering when he was asked about Blackwell going to China.

"I don't know. I hope so someday. I think it's really good for America and it's really good for China that Nvidia could participate in the Chinese market, but no decisions have been made and we'll see how it turns out. I hope it turns out well. This week, we announced that we will build 250,000 more GPUs here in Korea, making Korea one of the largest GPU or AI infrastructure countries in the world. And we're going to build 50,000 GPU AI factories with Samsung. Working with SK, the SK group, of course, with HBM memory, but also in creating digital twins of their factories. and we're going to build 50,000 GPU AI factories with SK group for their AI factories."

So the overall deal is summarized right here. Nvidia will ship 260,000 GPUs. Samsung will get 50,000 GPUs for its new AI factory. SK Group 50,000 then Navercloud 50,000. Samsung already manufactures all of its Nvidia's robotics processor. So the reason he went to South Korea was to really solidify these deals. And it looks like this was a successful trip.

All right, wake your ass up. Amazon 249.44, loses 250, but holding on to an 11% move, which you can't be too upset about. There you go. Amazon right there. 11.7% up on the day. Palantir, do we get 200? We got 200. We got 200, folks. We might as well do it right now. Ladies and gentlemen, Palantir, congratulations. $200 a share. Palantir gets 200. 200.30 at the opening bell. Robin Hood up 5%. Nvidia up two. Tesla up two. SoFi up two, AMD up two, S&P's up one.

Reddit crushed it as well. So, Reddit was weird. There was a hilarious video of Tanner. If you were watching Tanner stream, Tanner for the first time did a earnings trade and I know Tanner pretty well. He never does earnings trades. He took the trade and then the stock goes to the moon. Then it goes all the way back down and he starts apologizing. He's like, "Guys, this is why I don't do earnings trades. Don't follow me. I'm a horrible person." And then the stock shoots back up and he's like, "Screw you guys. I was right. I knew Reddit would go up." And it was the funniest thing ever. But it was great to see the roller coaster of emotions from Mr. Tanner on Reddit. Reddit deserves it. These guys are crushing it. These when you talk about a growth company, these guys are freaking growing.

And it's pretty incredible to see. 68% year-over-year growth. Gross margins at 91%. Profitable adjusted EBITDA has a 40% margin. Operating cash flow 185 million. Daily active uniques up 20% year-over-year to 116 million. I mean, look, I never love the valuation of Reddit, especially when it started getting into the high 100s and I kind of forgot about it. But they are able to grow and it doesn't look like they're slowing down.

Coinbase also crushed on earnings, but they beat on the top and the bottom. Incredible revenue numbers. Guidance was good. Subscription revenue was good. I mean, Coinbase really did crush it. And the headline on Coinbase though was this that happened at the end of the call. "I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call and I just want to you know add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain staking and web 3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call."

Okay, so look, I think Brian Armstrong is incredible and I genuinely think he was in the earnings call and someone in the Slack probably sent the link of the prediction marketplace for what will Brian Armstrong say and he just had fun with it and he really wasn't like thinking that deeply about it. But dude, that is sus. That is so like the obvious thing people think about is who does he know that has trades. It goes to show how deep the gambling culture has infiltrated our lives. And quite frankly, I think the reason Brian Armstrong did that is because, and I heard this rumor a month ago, and I don't know if it's going to happen, but I feel like Coinbase is going to launch prediction markets.

Uh, do we have PMI? We do have PMI Chicago PMI 43.8 versus 40.6. The estimate was 42.3. So, we got a beat on PMI. Chicago's October read on PMI comes in better than expected, 43.8. We're expecting a number closer to 42 and a half. There's good and there's bad. This is the best since well, July of this year, but that's still an improvement, sequentially higher than our final read last month at 40.6. Here's the fly in the ointment. This is the 23rd consecutive month in contraction territory, meaning under 50.

Here's the first thing he said that was pretty interesting around how he thinks about why the S&P 500 is going up in comparison to inflation. Second reason which is the one that people's heads explode on is that stocks are basically an inflation hedge. Okay, particularly high quality stocks. S&P 500 being best case in point, NASDAQ even more so. Gold as you know has gone through the roof. Okay, Bitcoin has also done extremely well. Why is that happening? Because investors are more worried about inflation today than they have been in most of our careers going back to the 70s.

So the market is looking forward to next year and saying, "Hey, the Fed's going to be cutting. Earnings are actually going to be probably better than people think if we're in a new economic recovery." And so it's pricing in better earnings growth than what the market is modeling today, which is 13 14%. I think it could be something closer to 20, which is one reason why multiples maybe aren't as expensive as people think. These companies are really really lean and they're going to stay lean because maybe they're using things like AI or other efficiencies. And if we get a new economic cycle and we get inflation which by the way is good for earnings. I think if we don't get inflation next year, there's no chance of getting 20% earnings growth. I think we are going to have inflation next year in the right places.

Would you sell Amazon? No, I would not sell Amazon at least. Look, here's my thing. Could Amazon go back down to like 220, 230? Yes. But I do think Amazon can become a cornerstone of a portfolio where you don't have to be too worried about it. And I think we've done enough work in terms of analyzing the company over the past two months to realize this is a dip buy if it ever gives you a dip and you just kind of hold on to it over the next 10 years as Amazon continues to become the behemoth that it is. And from a numbers perspective again if they can increase their margins to 20% they have 200 billion in operating income. You know you likely have closer to $4-5 trillion company.

The best way to hedge against that as well is to take some profits like it's not that crazy to take some profits and I haven't fully come to the conclusion of what I want to do by the end of the year because I would like to raise some cash. I think that's a healthy thing to do regardless of the market cycle. also because, you know, you're likely going to get some dips and you want to have some cash to buy those dips. And so, you know, towards the end of the year, I'm definitely going to have to tax loss harvest some stuff. But also, I have to ask myself like, hey, like, do I take some profits across these names? And Palantir is the one company I really don't want to touch. So, then the other two candidates that are left are Nvidia and Hood. And I've got to ask myself, do I take some off the table and do I wait in 2026 if we get a better opportunity? So, and I think that's normal. That's healthy.

All right, I think that's it, folks. I don't think there's anything else that's too crazy. I'll be back on the market close. Congrats to everybody. Palantir 200, S&P up half a percent on the day. It is a Friday, October 31st. Hopefully we can end out on a good note. I will be back today on the close. Happy Halloween to everybody. If you have more Halloween pictures, post them on Twitter and tag me in it. I would love to show everybody on the screen. Thank you everybody. Appreciate it. I will see you guys on the market close. Bye everybody. Happy Halloween. Have a good one. See you on the market close.