Hello my friends. Today is August 9th and this is Markets Weekly.

我的朋友们，大家好。今天是8月9日，欢迎收看《市场周报》。

So this past week we saw the major equity indexes basically completely recoup their losses from last Friday with the NASDAQ even making a new all-time high.

在过去的一周，我们看到主要股票指数基本上完全收复了上周五的失地，纳斯达克 (纳斯达克综合指数：主要追踪在美国纳斯达克股票市场上市的公司的股票表现) 甚至创下了历史新高。

However, overall I thought the markets were another boring slow summer week.

然而，总的来说，我认为市场又度过了一个平淡缓慢的夏季星期。

But we did have interesting developments in trade and in politics. So today let's talk about three things.

但我们在贸易和政治领域确实看到了一些有趣的新动向。所以今天我们来谈三件事。

First off, let's talk about the big winners and losers in trade the past week and also some foreshadowing of Trump's upcoming chips policy, which could be unveiled as soon as next week.

首先，我们来谈谈过去一周贸易领域的大赢家和输家，并对特朗普即将出台的芯片政策做一些预告，该政策最快可能在下周公布。

Secondly, some new developments on the race to be the new Fed chair.

其次，关于新任美联储主席 (美国联邦储备系统理事会的负责人) 的竞选出现了一些新进展。

It seems like Governor Waller is emerging as a favorite, but new names are being floated as well.

看起来理事沃勒正成为热门人选，但也有新的名字被提了出来。

And lastly, let's have a little bit of an update on the non-farm payrolls sprint we talked about last week where a former BLS commissioner, a Trump appointee, discusses why there are such big and frequent revisions.

最后，我们来更新一下上周谈到的非农就业数据 (Non-farm Payrolls, NFP：美国劳工统计局发布的衡量除农业、政府、私人家庭和非营利组织之外的月度就业变化的指标) 的问题，一位前BLS (美国劳工统计局 (Bureau of Labor Statistics)：负责收集、分析和发布美国经济和劳工相关统计数据的主要联邦机构) 局长，同时也是特朗普任命的官员，讨论了为什么会出现如此巨大且频繁的修正。

贸易领域的赢家、输家与芯片政策前瞻

Okay, starting with trade. Now, the big winner in trade policy the past week is obviously Apple.

好的，从贸易开始。过去一周，贸易政策方面的大赢家显然是苹果公司。

If you look at this chart of Apple stock price, you'll see why.

如果你看看苹果的股价图，你就会明白为什么。

The past week, Apple stock was basically up over 10%, one of its largest weekly gains in many years.

过去一周，苹果股价基本上涨了超过10%，是多年来最大的周涨幅之一。

Now, Apple was a huge stock, so obviously when it goes up by over 10%, it's going to drag the major indexes up as well.

苹果是一只巨型股，所以当它上涨超过10%时，显然也会带动主要指数上涨。

So, if you're happy with the major indexes, a lot of it has to do with Apple.

所以，如果你对主要指数的表现感到满意，很大程度上要归功于苹果。

Now, Apple stock hasn't actually been doing that well the past few months, and it's easy to see why.

实际上，过去几个月苹果的股价表现并不那么好，原因也很容易理解。

AI has been all the rage, but Apple just doesn't seem to be very good at AI.

人工智能 (AI) 一直是热门话题，但苹果似乎在这方面并不擅长。

In fact, it doesn't seem to have had a revolutionary product in some time. To be clear, iPhones sell very well.

事实上，它似乎已经有一段时间没有推出革命性的产品了。需要澄清的是，iPhone的销量非常好。

Everyone still loves their iPhones, but it's not really a growth market.

大家仍然喜爱他们的iPhone，但这已不是一个增长型市场。

And some people think that the good sales they've had the past quarter could in part be due to people buying iPhones in fear of tariffs.

而且有些人认为，他们上一季度的良好销售部分原因可能是人们因为担心关税 (对进出口商品征收的税) 而提前购买iPhone。

So, why did Apple stock jump so much the past week? Well, it's all credit goes to Tim Cook.

那么，为什么苹果股价在过去一周涨了这么多？这完全要归功于蒂姆·库克。

Now, Apple CEO Tim Cook visited the White House and paid his respects to the president.

苹果CEO蒂姆·库克访问了白宫，并向总统表达了敬意。

The president had a press conference with him and Tim Cook basically promised to invest a gazillion dollars in making iPhones in the US somehow someday.

总统与他举行了新闻发布会，蒂姆·库克基本上承诺将在未来的某天，以某种方式在美国投资巨额资金生产iPhone。

And also of course gave the president a very nice gift, one of its kind, a glass and gold sculpture that could be placed on the Resolute desk.

当然，他还送给总统一份非常精美的礼物，一件独一无二的玻璃和黄金雕塑，可以放在坚毅桌上。

And of course we all know the president really likes gold. And so these two things seem to have pleased the market gods and sent Apple stock up a lot.

我们都知道总统非常喜欢黄金。因此，这两件事似乎取悦了市场之神，让苹果股价大涨。

But of course, you could also say that spending a lot of money to build factories in America where you will have to produce at higher costs is good for jobs in America, good for the American economy, but might not be the best for your profit margins.

当然，你也可以说，花大价钱在美国建厂，意味着必须以更高的成本生产，这对美国的就业和经济有好处，但可能对你的利润率不是最有利的。

But maybe that's something for another day. Now, the big loser of the week has to be Switzerland.

不过，这或许是以后才需要考虑的问题。本周的大输家非瑞士莫属。

Now, Switzerland, unlike many of the other developed countries, has actually been slapped with a very sizable tariff.

与许多其他发达国家不同，瑞士实际上被征收了相当高的关税。

Trump put 39% tariffs on imports from Switzerland. And that's kind of a big problem for Switzerland because they are a country that is heavily dependent on trade, selling a lot of things like chocolates and gold watches and cheeses and so forth.

特朗普对从瑞士进口的商品征收了39%的关税。这对瑞士来说是个大问题，因为他们是一个高度依赖贸易的国家，销售大量诸如巧克力、金表和奶酪等商品。

Now, by all accounts, the Swiss president is a technocrat, very competent person, also very serious, basically very Swiss, and it seems like that is making it difficult for her to negotiate with the Trump administration.

据各方评价，瑞士总统是一位技术官僚，能力很强，为人也非常严肃，基本上就是典型的瑞士人，而这似乎让她与特朗普政府的谈判变得困难。

Now, Switzerland is already because they're a very open economy, doesn't actually have that much protection.

瑞士已经是一个非常开放的经济体，实际上并没有太多贸易保护措施。

So, if you're asking Switzerland to lower their tariffs, well, they'll say that we don't really have that many tariffs.

所以，如果你要求瑞士降低关税，他们会说我们其实并没有那么多关税。

One exception, of course, is agriculture, which all countries try to protect. It's a political issue.

当然，一个例外是农业，所有国家都会试图保护本国农业。这是一个政治问题。

It was a national security issue, but they didn't seem to be willing to budge as well.

这也是一个国家安全问题，但他们似乎也不愿意让步。

So, the Swiss president actually flew in to Washington the past week trying to maybe meet with the president, maybe get some reprieve on their very high tariffs, but actually had to fly back empty-handed.

因此，瑞士总统上周特地飞往华盛顿，希望能与总统会面，或许能在高额关税上得到一些缓解，但最终却不得不空手而归。

She kind of a big defeat for her and for Switzerland.

这对她和瑞士来说都是一次重大的失败。

Now, I think the obvious answer for them, of course, is to have to buy it down, as Trump has mentioned before.

我认为，对他们来说，显而易见的解决办法，当然是像特朗普之前提到的那样，通过投资来换取豁免。

So, eventually, again, they're going to realize what they're doing wrong, and they're going to have to turn around and pledge to invest a lot in the United States, whether it be to build a chocolate factory or a watch manufacturing factory or something like that.

所以，他们最终会意识到自己错在哪里，然后不得不回头承诺在美国进行大量投资，无论是建巧克力工厂、手表制造厂还是其他什么。

I'm not too sure. And the secret is I think you don't actually necessarily have to go through with it, but I'm sure they'll figure it out eventually.

我不太确定。而秘诀在于，我认为你实际上不一定非要完全兑现承诺，但我相信他们最终会想明白的。

Now, the third thing that was interesting the past week is the president hinted at his new upcoming chips tariff policy.

过去一周第三件有趣的事是，总统暗示了他即将出台的新芯片关税政策。

Now, as we know, we have these huge reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world, but we also have these sector specific tariffs that are aimed for more strategic purposes.

我们知道，我们对世界各国征收了大规模的报复性关税，但我们也有一些针对特定行业的关税，旨在实现更具战略性的目标。

For example, there are 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum because the president wants the United States to be self-sufficient in steel and aluminum.

例如，对钢铁和铝征收50%的关税，因为总统希望美国在钢铁和铝方面实现自给自足。

That is something you need if you ever want to say fight a war. Other things of national security importance are chips.

如果你想要打仗，这些是必需品。其他具有国家安全重要性的东西是芯片。

Again, if you don't have chips, you really can't do anything when it comes to modern technology and pharmaceuticals.

同样，如果没有芯片，你在现代科技和制药领域就无能为力。

Again, medicine is something of crucial importance. The president has hinted that he's going to start with a small tariff on pharmaceuticals and make it up to a ridiculous number.

药品也是至关重要的。总统已经暗示，他将从对药品征收小额关税开始，并在未来几个月内将其提高到一个惊人的数字。

say 100% in the coming months encouraging companies to build pharmaceuticals in the US.

比如说在未来几个月内达到100%，以鼓励公司在美国生产药品。

When it comes to chips though, it looks like the tariff policy is going to be a lot more toothless.

然而，在芯片方面，关税政策似乎会软弱得多。

Now, let's listen to while Secretary of Commerce describes this. If you build in America, you're not going to pay a tariff.

现在，让我们听听商务部长是如何描述的。如果你在美国建厂，你就不需要支付关税。

And what he did is he said, "I'll give you the leeway if you're committed to building in America, and only if you're committed to building in America, then he'll hold off on your tariff. But if you're not building in America, 100% tariff, pay or perform in America.

他的做法是说：“如果你承诺在美国建厂，我就会给你通融的余地，但前提是你必须承诺在美国建厂，这样他才会暂停对你征收关税。但如果你不在美国建厂，那就征收100%的关税，要么付钱，要么在美国履行承诺。”

So, basically, if you are a chip company and you promise to build in America, you won't have to have any tariffs. But if you don't do that, you'll be subject to tariffs, say 100%, basically cutting off trade, making your business not viable in the United States.

所以，基本上，如果你是一家芯片公司，并且你承诺在美国建厂，你就不需要缴纳任何关税。但如果你不这样做，你就会被征收关税，比如100%，这基本上切断了贸易，使你的业务在美国无法生存。

Now when you think about it, so all the chips that people really think about, say the fancy AI stuff that are imported from Taiwan, designed by Nvidia or the really fancy CPUs, again, manufactured in Taiwan, designed by AMD, that stuff is going to be basically exempt because all these big companies, TSMC, Intel, they have or in the process of building more and more companies, more and more foundries in the United States.

现在你想想，所有人们真正关注的芯片，比如从台湾进口、由英伟达设计的那些高端AI产品，或者同样在台湾制造、由AMD设计的那些高级CPU，这些东西基本上都会被豁免，因为所有这些大公司，如台积电、英特尔，已经或正在美国建造越来越多的公司和代工厂。

So they're not going to suffer. And to be clear, a lot of the super high-end stuff like the Nvidia chips, they wouldn't really be impacted by tariffs because there are not really many substitutes.

所以他们不会受到影响。需要明确的是，很多像英伟达芯片这样的超高端产品，并不会真正受到关税的影响，因为它们几乎没有替代品。

So if you put a tariff on them, all that would really happen is that Nvidia would just pass it on to their end buyers and the Mag 7 companies, hyperscalers would end up just paying more and they probably don't care since they have so much money.

所以如果你对它们征收关税，唯一的结果就是英伟达会把成本转嫁给最终买家，而那些七巨头公司、超大规模数据中心最终也只是多付点钱，他们可能不在乎，因为他们有的是钱。

So it's hard to see what this policy will really impact.

所以很难看出这项政策到底会影响什么。

Maybe it just impacts chips from say Huawei or others that are made in China.

也许它只会影响来自华为或其他中国制造的芯片。

So it could be some form of decoupling, but otherwise it doesn't seem to at least the way that it's teased to have a big impact.

所以这可能是某种形式的脱钩，但除此之外，至少从目前透露的信息来看，它似乎不会产生重大影响。

But we'll have more details of this later on. If Secretary Lucknet wants to raise revenue on these sector specific tariffs, they're going to have to have more teeth and maybe that will happen.

但我们稍后会得到更多细节。如果商务部长想通过这些针对特定行业的关税来增加收入，那么这些政策就必须更有力，也许这会发生。

So we'll see.

所以我们拭目以待。

美联储主席之争的新进展

Okay. Now the second thing that I want to talk about is new developments in the race to be Fed chair.

好了。现在我想谈的第二件事是关于美联储主席竞选的新进展。

Now as we all know they were the top candidates the two Kevin Hassett the president's trusted economic adviser for many years and currently holds the post of the chair of the national economic council and of course the other Kevin, Kevin Warsh who well-connected person who has a long history of being very bad at monetary policy.

我们都知道，顶尖的候选人是两位凯文：一位是凯文·哈塞特，总统多年来信赖的经济顾问，现任国家经济委员会主席；另一位当然是凯文·沃什，一位人脉广博但有长期货币政策失误史的人。

Um but these guys among the two my personal view was that Kevin Hasset will get it simply because he is a Trump loyalist.

在这两个人中，我个人认为凯文·哈塞特会得到这个职位，仅仅因为他是特朗普的忠实支持者。

But it seems like that's changing. Now there's a report from Bloomberg the past week where Governor Waller a current governor on the a Trump appointee who has voted for dissented the past meeting for rate cuts is the front runner.

但情况似乎正在改变。上周彭博社有一篇报道称，现任理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，一位特朗普任命的官员，在上次会议中投票反对降息，现在却成了领跑者。

Now, Governor Waller made his pitch to the public on an Bloomberg interview not too long ago, noting that if you appoint someone who was a loyalist, the markets, they might freak out.

不久前，理事沃勒在彭博社的采访中向公众阐述了他的观点，他指出，如果任命一个忠诚者，市场可能会恐慌。

You might have a big sell-off in the bond market and end up with higher rates.

你可能会在债券市场看到大规模抛售，最终导致利率上升。

So, if you appoint someone though that is trusted by the market like me, you're not going to have to worry about that.

但是，如果你任命一个像我这样受市场信任的人，你就不必担心这个问题。

And after all, I can convince other people on the board and I think we should be cutting rates and I have good reason to believe that.

毕竟，我能说服理事会的其他人，而且我认为我们应该降息，我有充分的理由相信这一点。

And so that seems that he seems to be getting the okay with a lot of people in Trump world.

因此，他似乎得到了特朗普圈子里很多人的认可。

I'm guessing that's Bessant, but of course he has yet to meet the president and everything comes down to what the president thinks about you.

我猜是这样，但当然他还没有见过总统，而一切都取决于总统对你的看法。

And so it's probably going to be the most important interview of his entire career where if he does well, he can probably be fed chair.

所以这很可能是他整个职业生涯中最重要的一次面试，如果他表现得好，他可能就能成为美联储主席。

I can't imagine how nerve-wracking that would be, but obviously, as I've said many times, I think he would be a good pick.

我无法想象那该有多么紧张，但显然，正如我多次说过的，我认为他会是一个不错的选择。

However, we also had some last-minute drama where on Friday we had a couple other names leaked out.

然而，我们在上周五也看到了一些最后一刻的戏剧性变化，有另外几个名字被泄露出来。

James Bullard, former president of the St. Louis Fed, was floated and also Mark Simlan, a former Bush era person.

前圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德被提及，还有一位布什时代的前官员马克·辛姆兰。

I believe he was deputy something or another in Treasury.

我相信他曾在财政部担任过某个副职。

So these guys again interesting because they're not really part of team MAGA but again just from objectively speaking nothing wrong with these picks.

这些人也很有趣，因为他们并不真正属于“让美国再次伟大”团队，但客观地说，选择他们并没有什么问题。

These seem like good guys but do you have the public record of saying that you will vote for rate cuts.

他们看起来都是不错的人选，但你是否有公开记录表明你会投票支持降息？

Do you have rapport with the president? It doesn't seem to me like these are really strong contenders.

你和总统关系好吗？在我看来，他们似乎不是真正有力的竞争者。

It's probably some apprentice style drama as the president likes. My best guess is that this is probably going to be Waller at the moment.

这可能只是总统喜欢的那种学徒式的戏剧。我最好的猜测是，目前来看，人选很可能是沃勒。

That since that's a strong pick for strategic reasons as well. But you know it's always hard to know.

因为从战略角度来看，这也是一个强有力的选择。但你懂的，事情总是难以预料。

Now the reason it's a good pick for strategic reasons is that Jay Powell actually has a bit of a trump card on his hand.

说这是一个出于战略考虑的好选择，原因在于杰罗姆·鲍威尔手上其实握有一张王牌。

So Jay Powell actually doesn't have to leave the Fed once his term is up.

实际上，杰罗姆·鲍威尔的主席任期结束后，并不需要离开美联储。

he can stay until his term expires, I believe, in 2028.

他可以一直留任到2028年任期届满。

So, historically speaking, when the Fed chair ends his term, he resigns from the board of governors and the president gets a chance to appoint someone else to be on the board.

从历史上看，当美联储主席任期结束时，他会从理事会辞职，这样总统就有机会任命其他人进入理事会。

But he doesn't have to do that. In the past, we had a governor echo after, ceasing to become Fed chair stay on the board.

但他不必这么做。过去，我们曾有一位理事在不再担任美联储主席后，继续留在理事会。

Now, if Jay Powell were to just stay on the board past his chairmanship date next May, he could really be kind of a thorn in the president's side because in fact, J. Powell will be kind of like a shadow Fed chair.

如果杰罗姆·鲍威尔在明年五月主席任期结束后继续留在理事会，他真的可能成为总统的眼中钉，因为实际上，鲍威尔将成为一个影子美联储主席。

Now, Jay Powell because of his stature as former Fed chair remains influential with the public and with other members on the committee.

杰罗姆·鲍威尔凭借其前美联储主席的身份，在公众和委员会其他成员中仍然具有影响力。

He's someone that people on the committee know and trust, having worked with him for many years.

他是委员会成员认识并信任的人，与他共事多年。

And so Jay Powell could through that influence continue to sway policy. That is a very bad scenario for the Trump administration.

因此，鲍威尔可以通过这种影响力继续左右政策。这对特朗普政府来说是一个非常糟糕的局面。

So one way to make Jay Powell at ease so that he won't just stay there and try to do what he perceives to be the right thing that is protect the independence of the Fed would be to appoint someone that J. Powell has confidence in so that J Powell can be at ease and leave the board.

因此，要让杰罗姆·鲍威尔安心，让他不会留下来试图做他认为正确的事情——即捍卫美联储的独立性，一个办法就是任命一个鲍威尔信任的人，这样鲍威尔就可以放心离开理事会。

So if Governor Waller were appointed as Fed chair, I think it's pretty certain that J. Powell would feel at ease.

所以如果理事沃勒被任命为美联储主席，我认为几乎可以肯定鲍威尔会感到安心。

He would leave and that would strategically give the Trump administration a chance to appoint another person to the FOMC next May.

他会离开，而这将在战略上给予特朗普政府一个机会，在明年五月任命另一位成员进入联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC：负责制定美国货币政策的机构)。

So that would give him an extra seat and so again increases the MAGA influence over the Fed.

这样他就能多一个席位，从而再次增强“让美国再次伟大”派对美联储的影响力。

Another interesting development the past week was that the president nominated council chair of council of economic advisors Steve Moran to fill the vacating governor's seat of Governor Cougler.

过去一周另一个有趣的发展是，总统提名了经济顾问委员会主席史蒂夫·莫兰，以填补理事库格勒空出的理事席位。

Now Governor Cougler suddenly resigned from the board last week but her term was always going to be up in a few months anyway.

理事库格勒上周突然从理事会辞职，但她的任期无论如何也只剩下几个月了。

Now the expectation was that when her term was up next January the president would appoint someone to fill that 14-year vacancy.

之前的预期是，当她明年一月的任期结束时，总统会任命某人来填补那个长达14年的空缺。

That timeline has been pulled forward.

现在这个时间线被提前了。

Now, the thinking was that maybe the president could nominate someone in October, November, and then fill that seat in January.

之前的想法是，总统可能会在十月或十一月提名某人，然后在一月份填补该席位。

But since Governor Kler suddenly resigned, there's going to be a four-month vacancy.

但由于库格勒理事突然辞职，将会出现四个月的空缺。

And it seems like for these four months, Chairman Moran is going to fill that for that spot.

看起来在这四个月里，莫兰主席将填补这个位置。

Now, Steve is someone who is very close to the president, very much on team MAGA and has advocated for rate cuts.

史蒂夫是与总统关系非常密切的人，非常属于“让美国再次伟大”团队，并一直主张降息。

So, this is going to be an extra voice on the FOMC for the next few meetings to try to advocate for more rate cuts.

因此，在接下来的几次FOMC会议上，这将是一个额外的声音，试图推动更多的降息。

Now, to be clear though, the market already expects the Fed to cut rates, probably 25 basis points in September, probably another cut by December.

不过需要明确的是，市场已经预期美联储会降息，可能在九月份降息25个基点 (衡量利率变动的单位，100个基点等于1个百分点)，到十二月可能再降一次。

Now, what could happen is that, Steve could advocate for 50 instead of 25 basis points, or he could also push for more changes in the governance and culture of the Fed.

现在可能发生的情况是，史蒂夫可能会主张降息50个基点而不是25个，或者他也可能推动美联储在治理和文化方面进行更多变革。

For example, one of the concerns that Steve has had in the past is that the Fed is engaging in mission creep.

例如，史蒂夫过去一直担心的一个问题是，美联储正在进行“使命偏离”。

It's talking about things like, you know, climate change and DEI and stuff like that.

它在讨论诸如气候变化和DEI (多元化、公平性和包容性 (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion)：旨在促进组织内部公平对待和充分参与所有群体的政策和计划) 之类的事情。

And it's very clear the statistics show that Fed papers have actually increasingly focused on things like that.

统计数据非常清楚地显示，美联储的研究论文确实越来越关注这类事情。

So, he could also make his mark on the Fed by trying to rein that in, focus the Fed more on its mission.

所以，他也可以通过努力遏制这种趋势，让美联储更专注于其核心使命，从而在美联储留下自己的印记。

So, it's also possible, of course, that the president, seeing that Steve does a good job in the next four months, could actually appoint him to the full term in January.

因此，当然也有可能，总统看到史蒂夫在未来四个月表现出色，可能会在一月份任命他担任完整任期。

But at the moment, though, the president seems to be keeping his options open, saying that Steve will fill this for four months and then he was going to appoint someone else on the board in January.

但目前来看，总统似乎在保留他的选择，表示史蒂夫将填补这个职位四个月，然后他计划在一月份任命其他人进入理事会。

And at the moment, it's really not clear who. I'm sure that will be a topic of a lot of drama and a lot of news articles in the coming months.

目前还真的不清楚会是谁。我确信这在未来几个月将成为许多戏剧性事件和新闻文章的主题。

非农就业数据修正的深度解读

Okay, the last thing I want to talk about is to give a little bit of an update on the job revisions we saw in the BLS the past week.

好的，最后我想谈的是，对我们上周在BLS看到的就业数据修正做一点更新。

Now, a lot of people have been talking about that the job revisions were the largest we've seen in a long time, and that suggests that there may be something wrong with how the BLS is performing.

许多人一直在讨论，这次的就业修正值是我们在很长一段时间内看到的最大的，这表明BLS的运作方式可能出了问题。

And of course, President Trump did fire the head of the BLS on those grounds.

当然，特朗普总统也正是以此为由解雇了BLS的负责人。

and maybe he also didn't like the data either.

或许他本人也不喜欢这些数据。

Now, interestingly, he actually has some support in market participants about firing the BLS commissioner where even Ray Dalio weighed in and said that he also would have fired the BLS commissioner simply because these big revisions suggest that there's something wrong with how the BLS is doing its work.

有趣的是，他在解雇BLS局长这件事上，实际上得到了一些市场参与者的支持，甚至瑞·达利欧也表态说，他也会解雇BLS局长，仅仅因为这些巨大的修正表明BLS的工作方式存在问题。

Now, I was wondering why there was these big revisions.

我一直在想为什么会有这么大的修正。

And so, very thankfully, OddLots had a former BLS commissioner, a Trump appointee, go on their show and discuss why there are big revisions.

所以，非常感谢的是，OddLots节目邀请了一位前BLS局长，也是特朗普任命的官员，上节目讨论了为什么会有大幅修正。

Here's what he said. Well, those businesses are supposed to turn their surveys in at the end of the month basically, but only about 68% usually that's the average do so.

他是这么说的。嗯，那些企业本应在月底基本上交回他们的调查问卷，但通常只有大约68%的企业会这样做，这是平均水平。

And so BLS keeps the window open for two more months. So 68% or so.

所以BLS会将提交窗口再开放两个月。所以大约是68%。

At the end of the first month, they make the first estimate.

在第一个月末，他们做出初步估算。

Then at the end of the second month, we've get about 83% completion and they revise that number of the first month and then by the third month we're into the 90s.

然后在第二个月底，我们大约能收到83%的完成率，他们会修正第一个月的数字，到第三个月，完成率就进入了90%的区间。

usually end up around 93 94% of all the so basically the BLS sends out surveys and maybe 60 70% of the people respond in time and so that those surveys then get again it's a sample so through their statistical algorithms they come up with a with a NFP number but over time more surveys come in and that number gets revised and so the data suggests that the survey response rate so within in the first months has been dropping a lot.

通常最终会达到93%到94%左右。所以基本上BLS发出调查问卷，大概有60%到70%的人会及时回复，然后这些调查问卷，作为一个样本，通过他们的统计算法得出一个NFP数字。但随着时间的推移，更多的问卷被收回，这个数字就会被修正。数据显示，第一个月内的调查问卷回复率一直在大幅下降。

So that first number, that first NFP number we get is basically becoming less and less built on less and less surveys.

所以我们得到的第一个数字，那个最初的NFP数字，基本上是建立在越来越少的调查问卷基础上的。

So potentially less accurate. However you can see that subsequently people do tend to return their surveys on.

因此可能不太准确。然而你可以看到，随后人们确实倾向于交回他们的调查问卷。

So the final number still is is basically comprised of comparable number of surveys as in the past. So it's probably as reliable.

所以最终的数字仍然是基于与过去相当数量的调查问卷得出的。因此它可能同样可靠。

Now, one other thing that's often noted is that these big revisions usually happen in turning points in the economy.

另外，人们经常注意到的一点是，这些大的修正通常发生在经济的转折点。

So, if we're getting this big revisions now, there there is an increased chance that we may be in a turning point where we may be slowly falling into recession.

所以，如果我们现在看到这样的大幅修正，那么我们可能正处于一个转折点的可能性增加了，我们可能正在缓慢地陷入衰退。

And I think that's what I'm going to write about today where there's really a lot of data that suggests the labor market is cooling rapidly and we're probably heading into, if not big softening, a recession.

我想这就是我今天要写的内容，确实有很多数据表明劳动力市场正在迅速降温，我们很可能正在走向，如果不是大幅放缓，那就是衰退。

All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. I'll talk to you guys next week.

好了，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢您的收看。我们下周再聊。