太阳能:从边缘到主流的惊人跃迁
今年春天,地球从太阳获取的电力比去年增加了约三分之一。太阳能突然变得如此廉价和充裕,以至于澳大利亚人很快将在每天下午享受3小时的免费电力。经过40万年为能源辛苦劳作的历史——从捡拾柴火到支付电费账单——一些人将突然免费获得这种商品。作为世界第四大经济体的加利福尼亚州,如今大多数夜晚都能从可再生能源中获得超过100%的电力需求。当太阳落山时,电网上的大型新型电池将黑夜变为白昼。在巴基斯坦,那些曾经为灌溉泵的柴油动力付出高昂代价的农民,现在的燃料使用量比两年前减少了30%,这很大程度上是因为他们进口了数百万块廉价的中国太阳能电池板,并通过YouTube学习如何连接它们。他们往往缺乏建造我们常见的那种太阳能农场钢制支架的资金,但这没关系,他们只是把电池板平铺在地上,对准太阳。
在这个十年里,世界上许多重大事件都朝着黑暗的方向发展,而这是唯一一件正在朝着正确方向前进的大事。我们突然拥有了建设清洁、充裕未来的机会,只要我们抓住它,但大多数人并未认识到这一时刻有多么重大。部分原因在于,我们几十年来一直称这些东西为"替代能源",这让我们忽视了它如今已成为为未来提供动力的显而易见、合乎常理且直接了当的方式。去年全球约90%的新增发电量来自太阳能和风能,这反过来是因为在这个十年早些时候,我们跨越了一条无形的界线:从太阳发电的成本变得低于燃烧煤炭、天然气和石油。让我重复一遍:我们生活在一个这样的星球上,最廉价的发电方式就是将一块玻璃板对准太阳。
Original English
The Earth is producing about a third more power from the Sun this spring than last. That solar power is suddenly so cheap and abundant that Australians will soon get 3 hours of electricity free every afternoon. Free. After 400,000 years of working hard for energy from gathering firewood to paying the power bill, some humans will suddenly have access to this commodity for nothing. California, fourth largest economy in the world, now produces most days more than 100% of its electricity from renewable energy at night. When the Sun goes down, big new batteries on the grid turn dark into daylight. In Pakistan, peasant farmers who used to pay through the nose for diesel power to run their irrigation pumps are using 30% less of the fuel than they were 2 years ago. In large part because they've imported millions of cheap Chinese solar panels and gone on YouTube to figure out how to connect them up. They often lack the money to build the steel scaffolding we're used to seeing at solar farms. No matter, they just lay them on the ground and point them at the Sun.
In a world where many, many big things have taken a very dark turn this decade, this is the one big thing that is going right. We have quite suddenly the opportunity to build a clean, abundant future if we simply seize it, but most of us don't recognize how huge this moment is. In part, that's because we've spent decades calling this stuff alternative energy and it's blinded us to the fact that it's now the obvious common sense straightforward way to power the future. Roughly 90% of new electric generation around the world last year came from the sun and the wind and that in turn is because earlier this decade we crossed some invisible line where it became cheaper to produce power from the sun than from burning coal and gas and oil. Let me repeat, we live on a planet where the cheapest way to make power is to point a sheet of glass at the sun.
能源转型:健康、气候与地缘政治的多重红利
如果我们能保持过去36个月惊人的增长势头,我们就能进入一个非凡的新时代。想想看:每年有800到900万人因吸入化石燃料燃烧副产品而死亡,这占全球死亡人数的五分之一。但几年前空气污浊到看不清街对面的中国城市,如今突然变得干净了许多。那里现在销售的大多数汽车都配有插头,将它们连接到中国正在以地球上最快速度建设的庞大太阳能和风能农场。更根本的是,这次能源转型是我们开始追赶气候变化物理规律的唯一真正机会。阻止全球变暖已经太晚了,但削减地球最终升温的十分之几度还为时不晚。每升高十分之一度,就会有一亿我们的兄弟姐妹从安全的气候区域转移到更危险的区域。
这个新时代还会带来另一个巨大红利。与集中在少数地方的化石燃料不同,太阳的能量无处不在。我们不再需要为了确保石油供应而攻击委内瑞拉,或为了迫使乌克兰屈服而威胁切断欧洲的天然气供应,我们可以想象一个碳氢化合物不再等同于财富和权力的世界。想象一下,在过去一个世纪的石油时代里,我们本可以少看到多少战争、政变和恐怖主义阴谋。正如这个春天提醒我们的,人类太擅长发动战争了,但即使对我们来说,想出一场围绕阳光的战争该怎么打也是很棘手的。阳光传播9300万英里到达地球,但这些里程中没有一英里经过霍尔木兹海峡。
Original English
If we can keep the staggering growth of the last 36 months going, then we could enter an extraordinary new age. Consider, 8 or 9 million people a year die from breathing the combustion byproducts of fossil fuel. That's one death in five on this planet. But the Chinese cities whose air was so foul a few years ago that you couldn't see across the street are suddenly much cleaner. Most of the cars sold there now come with a plug and it connects them to the vast solar and wind farms that the Chinese are building faster than anyone on Earth. More fundamentally, this energy transition is our only real chance of even starting to catch up with the physics of climate change. It's too late to stop global warming. But it's not too late to shave tenths of a degree off how hot the planet eventually gets and each tenth of a degree that we raise the temperature moves a hundred million of our brothers and sisters out of a safe climate zone and into a more perilous one.
This new age would come with one other great bonus. Unlike fossil fuels, which are concentrated in a few places, the sun's energy is available everywhere. Instead of, say, attacking Venezuela to secure its oil or threatening to cut off Europe's gas supply to force the subjugation of Ukraine, we get to imagine a world where hydrocarbons no longer equal wealth and power. Imagine how many fewer wars and coups and terrorist plots we would have seen in the last century of oil and been of trivial value. As this spring has reminded us, humans are all too good at starting wars, but even for us, figuring out how to fight one over sunshine will be tricky. Sunlight travels 93 million miles to reach the Earth, but none of those miles go through the Strait of Hormuz.
既得利益者的抵抗与不可阻挡的经济逻辑
这当然是好消息,除非你拥有油井或煤矿。那么清洁能源的崛起就成为一种非凡的威胁,一种动员你反击的威胁。例如在美国,候选人特朗普告诉石油行业,如果他们捐赠巨额资金,他就会支持他们。在他上任的第一年,他关闭了东海岸外的大型风电场,扼杀了全国各地的太阳能农场。但特朗普无法单枪匹马阻止清洁能源,他又不是耶稣什么的。事实上,经济规律如此有利,以至于即使在美国,去年大部分新增发电量也来自太阳能和风能,而增长最快的地区是德克萨斯州——大石油的根据地。
但特朗普、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯以及其他少数世界大国可能会减缓这一转变。美国的能源部长,无视所有全球证据,声称不存在气候危机,我们也没有处于能源转型之中。因此,他一直在补贴煤炭,而不是拥抱清洁能源——后者本可以说:"让我们快速且廉价地建造我们真正需要的任何数据中心。"正如中国已经充分证明的,太阳能电场可以在几周内拔地而起。美国拖延这一转型的努力不仅在经济学上是愚蠢的,也危及了冷却地球的最后最佳希望。当然,40年后我们将用太阳能和风能运行这个星球,因为它们便宜,但如果我们花40年才到达那里,那么我们用太阳能和风能运行的将是一个破碎的星球。
Original English
So, what good news. Unless, of course, you own an oil well or a coal mine. Then the rise of clean energy becomes an extraordinary threat, one that mobilizes you to fight back. In the US, for instance, candidate Trump told the oil industry that if they donated huge sums, he would have their back. In his first year in office, he shut down huge wind farms off the Eastern Seaboard, killed solar farms across the country. Now, Trump can't stop clean energy single-handedly. It's not like he's Jesus or something. Indeed, indeed, the economics are so favorable that even in the US, most new electric generation last year came from the sun and the wind. And the biggest growth was in the state of Texas, the home ground of big oil.
But Trump and Russia and Saudi Arabia, and a handful of other world powers may be able to slow that shift. America's Secretary of Energy, against all global evidence, has said there's no climate crisis and we're not in the middle of an energy transition, either. So, he's been subsidizing coal instead of embracing the clean energy that would say, "Let us build any data centers we actually needed quickly and cheaply." As the Chinese have amply demonstrated, solar fields can sprout in a matter of weeks. America's effort to delay this transition is not just economically stupid, it also endangers the last best hope of cooling this Earth. Sure, in 40 years we will run the planet on sun and wind because it's cheap, but if it takes us anything like 40 years to get there, then the planet we run on sun and wind will be a broken planet.
行动倡议:从"解放屋顶"到全球太阳能运动
因此,那些希望不同未来的人需要为之奋斗,而廉价的太阳能电池板终于给了我们在这场斗争中的真正武器。我们需要在每一个国家和每一级政府推动更快地向廉价、清洁电力过渡。去年秋分,我们在美国发起了"太阳星期日"活动。全国范围内举办了500场活动,从太阳能供电的音乐会到在仁人家园(Habitat for Humanity)的房屋上安装太阳能电池板,都在传播这一新的能源福音。我们将在2027年夏至再次举办,这一次将是全球性的。这样的日子帮助我们建立推动这些事业所需的政治力量。
例如,美国人现在为太阳能支付的价格是欧洲人或澳大利亚人的三倍,这主要是因为州和地方层面不必要的官僚程序。因此,"解放屋顶"(Free the Rooftop)是一个同时吸引保守派和自由派的口号。犹他州去年成为美国第一个将小型插入式太阳能合法化的州,为过去三年中在数百万欧洲公寓阳台上涌现的那种简单安装打开了大门。缅因州和弗吉尼亚州上周也加入了犹他州的行列。在我们推进这项工作时,我们需要谈论其科学必要性和经济实用性,但我们还有一张王牌,那就是太阳能的纯粹之美。我们与我们的本地恒星有着深刻的人类联系。我们不确定史前人类如何看待事物,因为作为史前人类,他们没能记录下来,但我们确实知道他们留下的每一堆石头,比如巨石阵,似乎都指向春分或冬至。当太阳从云层后面出来照在你的肩胛骨上时,你难道不会不由自主地咧嘴笑吗?如果你得不到足够的阳光,你真的会变得悲伤,患上季节性情感障碍(Seasonal Affective Disorder)。所以,这个时刻的口号很明确:来自天堂的能源,而非来自地狱的能源。
Original English
So, those of us who hope for a different future need to fight for it, and with the cheap solar panel we finally have a real weapon in that struggle. We need to push in every country and at every level of government for a faster move toward cheap, clean power. We started Sunday in the US last year on the autumnal equinox. Across the nation, 500 events from solar-powered concerts to the installation of solar panels on Habitat for Humanity homes helped spread this new energy gospel. We'll do it again on the summer solstice in 2027, and this time we will do it globally. Days like this help us build the political power we need to push these things ahead.
Americans, for instance, right now pay three times what Europeans or Australians pay for solar power, mostly because of unnecessary bureaucracy at the state and local level. So, free the rooftop is a cry that appeals to conservatives as much as liberals. Utah became the first American state last year to legalize small-scale plug-in solar, opening the door for the kind of simple installations that have sprouted on the balconies of millions of European apartments in the last 3 years. Maine and Virginia joined Utah last week. So, yeah, as we push ahead with this work, we need to talk about its scientific necessity and its economic pragmatism, but we have one other ace to play, and that's the sheer beauty of power from the sun. We have a deep human connection to our local star. We don't know for sure how prehistoric people thought about things because being prehistoric, they failed to write it down, but we do know that every pile of rocks they left behind, like Stonehenge, seems to point to the equinox or the solstice. Do you not break into an involuntary grin when the sun comes out from behind a cloud and hits you on the shoulder blades? If you don't get enough sun, you literally get can get sad, seasonal affective disorder. So, the mantra for this moment is clear. Energy from heaven, not from hell.
火的终结与太阳时代的开启
带着这个口号,这将是多么突破性的时刻。人类自时间之初就一直在燃烧东西。达尔文说语言和火是让我们这个物种与众不同的两样东西。火大多是好的。我们学会了烹饪,这给了我们发达的大脑。我们可以从赤道向北和向南迁移。人类学家甚至认为,无数个夜晚围坐在篝火旁有助于解释我们物种特有的社会纽带——把它想象成一种原始的TED演讲。当我们学会控制煤炭、石油和天然气的燃烧时,那就是工业革命,它给了我们现代性。
但现在,这些火的代价已经变得太高了。我们赖以生存的气候的未来正被它们的烟雾所淹没。因此,多么令人欣慰的是,在这个时刻,如果我们愿意,我们可以扑灭那些火——发电厂里的大火,炉子里和汽车引擎盖下的小火。太阳已经给了我们光和温暖,并通过光合作用给了我们晚餐。现在,它愿意为我们提供所需的所有电力。这份礼物在最关键的时刻到来。浪费它将是一种非凡的罪过,而在未来几年里,将它在我们炎热而疲惫的地球上建设起来,对人类来说将是一个美丽的项目。在你们参与这场斗争之前,请允许我说一声谢谢。
Original English
And with that slogan, what a breakthrough moment this could be. I mean, humans have been burning things since the dawn of time. Uh Darwin said language and fire were the two things that set our species apart. And fire was mostly good. We learned to cook, which gave us the big brain. We could move north and south from the equator. The anthropologists even think that eons of standing around the campfire every night help explain some of the social bonds that mark our species. Think of it as a sort of primitive TED Talk. Uh when we learned to control the combustion of coal and oil and gas, that was the Industrial Revolution and it gave us modernity.
But now the cost of those fires has simply grown too high. The very future of the climate on which we depend is being overwhelmed by their smoke. So, what sweet relief that in this exact moment we can, if we want, put out those fires. The big ones in our power plants, the smaller ones in our furnaces and under the hoods of our cars. The sun already gives us light and warmth and via photosynthesis our supper. Now it is willing to provide us with all the power we could ever need. This gift has come at the last possible moment. It would be an extraordinary sin to waste it and it would be a beautiful beautiful project for humans to build it out across our hot and tired Earth in the next few years. In advance of your participation in that fight, let me just say thank you.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Bill McKibben
公司/组织: Habitat for Humanity