巡回录制与开场介绍
大家好，Odd Lots 的听众朋友们！Odd Lots 的巡回活动仍在继续，下一站是芝加哥。没错。Joe 和我计划于 10 月 15 日在芝加哥城市酒庄（Chicago City Winery）进行一场 Odd Lots 的现场录制。门票现已在 bloomberg.com/odd lots 发售。我们特别感谢巴克莱银行（Barclays）赞助本次 Odd Lots 现场录制。10 月 15 日，芝加哥城市酒庄见！赶快购票吧。
英文原文
Hello, Odd Lots listeners! The Odd Lots tour is continuing, and the next destination is Chicago. you're right. Joe and I are planning to do a live recording of Odd Lots at Chicago City Winery on October 15th. Tickets are available for purchase now at bloomberg.com/odd lots. We would like to extend special thanks to Barclays for sponsoring the Odd Lots live recording. See you at Chicago City Winery on October 15th! Purchase your tickets right now.彭博音频工作室。播客、电台、新闻。
英文原文
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcast Radio News大家好，欢迎收听新一期的 Odd Lots 播客。我是 Tracy Alloway，我是 Joe Weisenthal。
英文原文
Hello, welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I am Tracy Alloway, and I am Joe Weisenthal.航空公司的神秘面纱与燃油对冲
Joe，有一个我们一直想聊的话题。
英文原文
Joe, there is a topic we have wanted to cover for a long time.是的，没错。它看起来可能很简单，但实际上，我费了很大劲才找到完全适合这个话题的嘉宾。这是因为它是关于一个与航空公司相关的特定航空公司策略的故事。当我做了几年交通线记者时，我意识到航空公司有许多奇特的方面。它有很多神秘的侧面，而且不愿意透露细节。
英文原文
Yes, that is correct. It might look simple, but actually, I had a really hard time finding a guest who was the perfect fit for the topic. This is because it is a story about a specific airline strategy related to airlines. When I worked as a transportation reporter for a few years, I realized that airlines have many peculiar aspects. He has a lot of secretive sides and is reluctant to share details.实际上，我以前不知道这种行业惯例。我不知道航空公司往往会以这种方式保守秘密。
英文原文
Actually, I was unaware of this industry practice. I didn't know that airlines tend to keep secrets in this way.关于航空业，我一直有两件事很好奇，今天我想聊聊其中之一。那就是关于燃油对冲及其运作方式的内部细节。
英文原文
There are two things I have always been curious about regarding the aviation industry, and today I would like to talk about one of them. It is the internal details regarding fuel hedging and its operation methods.第二，我想看看包含航空公司实际获得的折扣的飞机订购合同。每当维珍航空（Virgin Atlantic）宣布从波音或空客订购一定数量的飞机时，公布的价格总是标价。因此，你无法真正知道航空公司实际支付了多少钱。所以我一直想看看那个，但我在交通行业工作期间一次也没见过。
英文原文
Second, I wanted to see the aircraft order contract that included the discounts the airlines actually receive. Whenever Virgin Atlantic announces that it is ordering a specific quantity of aircraft from Boeing or Airbus, the prices are always listed at the regular price. So, you can't really know how much airlines are actually paying. So I've always wanted to see that, but I never saw it even once while working in the transportation industry.不过，至少目前而言，我已经能够解开我对燃油对冲的好奇了。我非常期待这一期的原因，就是因为这个关于航空公司燃油对冲的故事。如你所知，每当油价大幅上涨或飙升时，有关航空公司的话题就会冒出来。我们都有过这种经历，不是吗？
英文原文
However, at least for now, I have been able to resolve my curiosity about fuel hedging. The reason I am really looking forward to this episode is because of the story about airline fuel hedging. As you know, whenever oil prices rise significantly or skyrocket, stories about airlines come up. We've all had that experience, haven't we?对吧？这正是我感兴趣的地方。你知道的，比如我们总是谈论的那些话。“啊，那家航空公司做燃油对冲了吗？”然后对话就停在那里了。“啊，既然做了对冲，应该就没事。”或者，“既然没做对冲，股价可能会下跌。”类似这样的话。我们都在谈论燃油对冲，但往往我们并不真正明白它到底意味着什么。而且我也觉得很有意思的是，航空公司内部居然有交易员。当你听到“交易员”这个词时，你通常会想到交易所这类地方，对吧？
英文原文
Right? This is exactly what interests me. You know, things like the ones we always talk about. "Ah, did the airline hedge its fuel?" And then the conversation ends right there. Ah, it should be fine since I hedged. Or, "Since I didn't hedge, the stock price will probably fall." Something like this. We all talk about fuel hedging, but often we don't really know what it actually means. And I also find it interesting that there are traders at airlines. When you hear the word "trader," you usually think of places like exchanges, right?然而，企业积极开展的资本交易活动几乎没有受到任何关注。
英文原文
However, capital transaction activities actively carried out by companies are receiving almost no attention.关于燃油和航空公司成本再补充一点，燃油是航空公司仅次于劳动力成本的第二大成本项。这是显而易见的。然而，燃油也是波动最大的成本项。当人们听到对冲这个词时，他们通常会认为航空公司是在担心油价上涨，尤其是航空燃油价格上涨。
英文原文
To add one more point regarding fuel and airline costs, fuel is the second largest cost item for airlines, after labor costs. That's obvious. However, fuel is also the most volatile cost item. When people hear the term hedging, they usually think that airlines are worried about rising oil prices, especially jet fuel prices.没错。
英文原文
you're right.因此，航空公司试图将价格固定在特定水平，以避免卷入突如其来的价格波动，比如最近航空燃油价格的飙升。
英文原文
So, airlines try to fix prices at a specific level to avoid getting caught up in sudden price fluctuations, such as the recent surge in jet fuel prices.然而与此同时，当油价上涨时，航空公司还会采用另一种手段，即提高机票价格或增加燃油附加费。换句话说，可能会出现一种情况：由于油价飙升，固定价格跌破了固定水平，并且可能还会加收额外的燃油附加费。这是因为，就像我们经历过通货膨胀一样，如果出现石油短缺，我们可能会遭受重大打击。如今各类新闻纷至沓来，包括航空燃油短缺，即使机票中加入大额燃油附加费，乘客可能也不会抱怨太多。
英文原文
However, at the same time, airlines use another means of raising airfares or increasing fuel surcharges when oil prices rise. In other words, a situation may arise where a fixed price falls below the fixed price due to a surge in oil prices, and an additional fuel surcharge may be imposed. This is because, just as we have experienced inflation, we could suffer a major blow if an oil shortage occurs. With all sorts of news pouring in these days, including the aviation fuel shortage, customers probably won't complain much even if a large fuel surcharge is added to their airfare.这些天机票真的很贵。
英文原文
Airfare is really expensive these days.是的，没错。不过，预订率也很高。人们飞来飞去，我们不断听到像运输安全管理局（TSA）纪录被打破以及全球航空客运量纪录被打破这类新闻。全世界的人都频繁飞行。当然，如你所知，如果你对冲了油价波动，而你的竞争对手没有，你就必须提价或者承受损失。然后你就会想，“好吧，这是我的机会。”
英文原文
Yes, that is correct. However, the reservation rate is also very high. People are flying around, and we keep hearing news like TSA records being broken and global air traffic records being broken. People all over the world fly a lot. Of course, as you know, if you hedge against oil price fluctuations while your competitors do not, you will have to raise prices or suffer a loss. Then you would think, 'Okay, this is my chance.'所以我真的很好奇这一切是如何运作的，又会产生什么样的影响。介绍一点背景，你目前录制的时间是 9 月 29 日。大约在二月或三月，当对伊战争爆发时，我们都在关注新加坡航空燃油价格的走势。
英文原文
So I am really curious about how all of this works and what kind of impact it has. And to give you some background, you are currently recording on September 29th. Around February or March, when the war with Iran broke out, we were all keeping an eye on the trends in Singapore aviation fuel prices.好吧，我们其中一个人看了。
英文原文
Well, one of us did.我们其中一个人当时在看欧洲航空燃油与布伦特原油的裂解价差（crack spread），而我一直在专注地注视着它。那就好。如你所知，这就是差价。抱歉。不，但这是事实。它甚至上了新闻，而且随着柴油短缺导致油价再度飙升，它突然变成了一个非常重要的课题。我完全同意你的观点，即精明的对冲策略可以成为航空公司的竞争优势。供参考，我父亲曾在西南航空（Southwest Airlines）当了很久的飞行员。不幸的是，我的财产中仍有很大一部分投资在西南航空的股票上。
英文原文
One of us was looking at the European jet fuel and Brent crude crack spread, and I was staring at it intently. That's good. As you know, that is the difference. sorry. No, but it is true. It was even featured in the news, and as oil prices surged again due to the diesel shortage, it suddenly became a very important topic. And I fully agree with your point that a wise hedging strategy can be a competitive advantage for airlines. For reference, my father worked as a pilot for Southwest Airlines for a long time. Unfortunately, a significant portion of my estate is still invested in Southwest stocks.你看到西南航空的股票代码了吗？请给我看一下。我不想看。然而，西南航空开创了一种特定的对冲策略，随着该策略被其他航空公司不同程度地效仿，它声名远播。所以这对航空公司来说可能是一个极其重要的因素，而我……Joe，请别给我看。我不想看。不要缩小。过去几年看起来还挺不错的。不要缩小。
英文原文
Do you see the Southwest stock code? Please show me. I don't want to see it. However, Southwest pioneered a specific hedging strategy, and it became famous as that strategy was imitated by other airlines with varying success rates. So it can be an incredibly important factor for airlines, and I... Jo, please don't show it. I don't want to see it. Do not reduce. It has looked pretty good over the past few years. Do not reduce.等一下。没那么糟。看。看。其实，我原本以为会更糟。对于正在收听节目的听众，我把电脑屏幕倾斜了一下，好让 Tracy 能看到图表。没有我预想的那么糟。因为 Tracy 开头讲故事的那个语气。
英文原文
Wait a moment. It's not that bad. look. look. Actually, I expected it to be worse. For those of you listening right now, I tilted the computer screen so that Tracy could see the chart. It's not as bad as I expected. Because of the way Tracy started the story.对话嘉宾 David King：背景与职业履历
是的。我真的很高兴终于找到了完美契合的嘉宾来聊所有这些事情。他是一位真正在大型航空公司实施过燃油对冲策略的人，而且做法非常有趣。我们将与 David King 先生对话。他是卡塔尔航空（Qatar Airways）前集团财务官，也是原油市场各领域的专家。David，非常感谢你来到 All Sots。
英文原文
yes. I am really glad to finally find the perfect guest to talk to about all of this. He is someone who actually implemented a fuel hedging strategy at a major airline, and did it in a very interesting way. I will speak with Mr. David King. He is a former Group Finance Officer at Qatar Airways and an expert across the oil market. David, thank you so much for appearing on All Sots.很高兴见到你。非常高兴终于见到了你。感谢你一直陪我们到新加坡深夜。你能简短介绍一下你自己，并解释一下为什么我刚才既称你为卡塔尔航空前集团财务官，又称你为石油市场专家吗？
英文原文
I am glad to meet you. I am so glad to finally meet you. Thank you for staying with us until late in Singapore. Could you briefly introduce yourself and explain why I just referred to you as both the former Group Finance Officer at Qatar Airways and an oil market expert?说来话长。我简要讲讲我在多伦多做交易的经历。我在纽约做过利率交易。我曾在列克星敦大道 425 号（425 Lexington Avenue）的一家加拿大银行工作，那里离你家不远。
英文原文
It's a long story. I will briefly tell you about my experience trading in Toronto. I did interest rate trading in New York. I worked at a Canadian bank at 425 Lexington Avenue, which is not far from your house.是的。
英文原文
yes.我回到新加坡加入了国民西敏寺银行（NatWest），并被派往伦敦销售政府债券。那之后，我在一家日本贸易公司担任债券交易员，但我在 1998 年亚洲金融危机期间失去了工作。于是我转行做石油经纪人，做了大约 6 到 7 年。2006 年，一位在摩根大通亚洲（JP Morgan Asia）担任产品部门负责人的朋友建议我们一起共事。
英文原文
I returned to Singapore and joined National Westminster Bank (NatWest), and was dispatched to London to sell government bonds. After that, I worked as a bond trader at a Japanese trading company, but I lost my job during the Asian financial crisis in 1998. So I switched to being an oil broker and worked for about 6 to 7 years. In 2006, a friend who was the head of the product division at JP Morgan Asia suggested that we work together.于是，我从石油经纪人转变为结构化石油专家。之后我去了住友商事（Sumitomo），一家日本贸易公司，担任亚洲大宗商品交易主管，自那以后我一直在这个领域工作。由于我也曾在煤炭和液化天然气（LNG）行业工作过，我想你可以说我是能源领域的专家。我是在电话连线上跟你这么说的。在卡塔尔航空工作期间，我学到了很多关于航空业的知识，尤其是技术层面以及有趣的事情。这是一个非常有趣的领域。
英文原文
So, I moved from being an oil broker to a structured oil specialist. Then I went to Sumitomo, a Japanese trading company, and became the head of Asian commodity trading, and I have been working in this field ever since. Since I have also worked in the coal and LNG industries, I suppose you could say I am an expert in the energy sector. I am telling you this on the line. While working at Qatar Airways, I learned a lot about the aviation industry, especially the technical aspects and interesting things. It's a really interesting field.你知道我们和我们的听众都很喜欢航空相关的内容。所以我非常期待
英文原文
You know that both we and our listeners enjoy aviation-related episodes. So I am really looking forward航空公司工作经历与财务职责
对此也是。等一下，你什么时候在卡塔尔航空工作的？
英文原文
to this as well. Wait, when did you work at Qatar Airways?从 2011 年到 2013 年。嗯，大约两到三年半。
英文原文
From 2011 to 2013. Hmm, it's about two and a half to three years.好的。那么，作为集团财务官，在该航空公司的这一职位基本期望是什么？财务官为公司承担什么职责？
英文原文
All right. So, as a Group Finance Officer, what were the basic expectations for that role at the airline? What responsibilities does a finance officer bear for the company?我的头衔是财务与风险管理副总裁。是的。基本上，我负责航空公司所有金融产品的财务与风险管理。换句话说，财务经理的角色就是从财务上保护航空公司。
英文原文
My title was Vice President of Finance and Risk Management. yes. Basically, I was responsible for the financial and risk management of all financial products for the airline. In other words, it is the role of the finance manager to financially protect the airline.航司对冲现状与炼油厂类比
那么，哪些航空公司实际在做对冲？据我所知，一些美国航空公司似乎没有像过去那样积极对冲了。
英文原文
Then, which airlines actually hedge? As far as I know, it seems that some U.S. airlines are not hedging as actively as they used to.我认为这是因为他们在 2014 和 2015 年遭受了重创。达美航空在 2020 年遭受了近 10 亿美元的损失。虽然达美航空仍在进行对冲，但大多数美国航空公司，尤其是较小的航空公司，将所有成本计入附加费并转嫁给客户。这种附加费包含在机票价格中。机票上不显示附加费费率。它可能只显示为“燃油附加费”。而且有些航空公司正完全取消附加费，允许乘客以包含在机票价格中的价格登机。这意味着你不必担心燃油成本。如果你想去某个地方，航空公司必须带你到达那里。在这方面，一些美国航空公司实际上退出这一业务的原因之一是，他们的对冲组合不够大，或者他们的财务状况不够强劲，无法承受对冲风险。另一方面，国际航空公司拥有足够的财务实力和对冲投资组合。此外，我们也获得了足够的利润。因此，你可以在燃料消耗方面进行对冲，同时收取额外费用。
英文原文
I think it is because it took a big hit in 2014 and 2015. Delta Airlines suffered a loss of nearly $1 billion in 2020. Although Delta Airlines was still hedging, most U.S. airlines, especially smaller ones, include all costs in surcharges and pass them on to customers. This surcharge is included in the ticket price. The surcharge rate is not displayed on the ticket. It will probably just be displayed as "Fuel Surcharge." And some airlines are eliminating surcharges altogether, allowing passengers to board for a price included in the ticket price. It means you don't have to worry about fuel costs. If you want to go somewhere, an airline has to take you there. In that regard, one of the reasons some U.S. airlines have actually withdrawn from this business is that their hedge portfolios are not large enough, or their financial condition is not strong enough to handle the hedging risk. On the other hand, international airlines have sufficient financial strength and hedge portfolios. Furthermore, we have secured sufficient profits as well. So, you can hedge in terms of fuel consumption while simultaneously charging an additional fee.把航空公司比作炼油厂。炼油厂投入原油，并将其送入常压蒸馏装置（CDU），在那里经历炼油过程以生产产品。因此，最顶部是 LPG，然后是汽油和石脑油，中间馏分是航空煤油和柴油，最底部是燃料残渣。所有这些都是从原油衍生出来的产品。那么炼油厂做什么呢？炼油厂卖裂解差价（crack）。“Crack”指的是产品价格与原油价格之间的差值，换句话说就是价差（spread）。炼油厂出售裂解差价并出售产品。基本上，这可以称为生产者对冲，但它也被称为利润对冲。炼油厂通过销售产品获取利润。然而，由于你必须购买原油，其中也涉及风险。航空公司也是如此。就航空公司而言，出于各种原因，我不得不求助于创造性的方法，但我不会详细说明具体原因。
英文原文
Compare airlines to oil refineries. Oil refineries input crude oil and send it to a Crude Distillation Unit (CDU), where it undergoes a refining process to produce products. So, at the very top is LPG, then gasoline and naphtha, then the middle fractions are jet kerosene and diesel, and at the very bottom is fuel residue. All of these are products derived from crude oil. Then what does the oil refinery do? The refinery sells crack. "Crack" refers to the difference between the product price and the crude oil price, in other words, the spread. The refinery sells cracks and sells products. Basically, it can be called producer hedging, but it is also referred to as profit hedging. Oil refineries generate profit by selling products. However, since you have to buy crude oil, there is also risk involved. The same goes for airlines. In the case of airlines, I had to resort to creative methods for various reasons, but I will not go into detail about the specific reasons.对冲预测与代理指标选择
然而，出于这些原因，我们不得不坐下来认真考虑如何进行对冲。这是因为它拥有价值 66 亿美元的资产负债表，第一年的消耗量约为 2400 万至 2700 万桶，次年又增加了 300 万桶，并在其后继续增加。因此我们最多提前 3 年进行了对冲和预测。
英文原文
However, for those reasons, we had to sit down and seriously consider how to hedge. This is because it had a balance sheet worth $6.6 billion, and consumption in the first year was about 24 million to 27 million barrels, with an additional 3 million barrels added in the following year and continued to increase thereafter. So we hedged and predicted up to 3 years in advance.这样做的一个原因是我们每个月引进 1.5 架飞机。基本上，我们几乎每两个月就规划一条新航线。因此，我们能够规划一切，并确切知道会有哪些飞机进来。换句话说，我们知道消耗量在稳步增加，并且对我们正在做的事情有清晰的认识。
英文原文
One of the reasons for doing so was that we were introducing 1.5 aircraft every month. Basically, we were planning a new route almost every two months. Therefore, we were able to plan everything and knew exactly which aircraft would come in. In other words, we knew that consumption was steadily increasing, and we had a clear understanding of what we were doing.此外，全球经济正在好转，人们又开始尝试坐飞机。因此，我们开始在原油价格处于最低点时通过购买原油来进行对冲。但是，有时你需要实际看一看价格并予以认真考虑。考虑油价飙升至三位数时会发生什么情况的概率。
英文原文
Furthermore, the global economy was improving, and people were trying to fly again. So we started hedging by buying crude oil when prices were at their lowest point. However, sometimes you need to actually look at the price and give it careful consideration. Consider the probability of what happens when oil prices skyrocket to triple digits.因为航空燃油市场太小，所以布伦特原油被用作代理指标。美国航空公司使用取暖油代替航空燃油作为代理指标。航空燃油市场太小了。航空燃油仅在西北欧销售，市场规模非常小。因此，你无法用这些金融产品进行对冲。你应该使用具有高流动性且兼具买家和卖家的布伦特原油作为代理指标。
英文原文
Because the jet fuel market is too small, Brent crude is used as a proxy indicator. U.S. airlines use heating oil as a proxy indicator instead of jet fuel. The jet fuel market is too small. Jet fuel is sold only in Northwestern Europe, and the market size is very small. Therefore, you cannot hedge with these financial products. You should use Brent crude, which has high liquidity and both buyers and sellers, as a proxy indicator.考虑航空公司参与的市场。只有航空公司购买航空燃油。因此，许多石油公司会说“可以供应航空燃油”。许多石油公司，例如嘉能可（Glencore）、Curia 和维多（Vitol），向航空公司出售航空煤油。摩根士丹利也是如此。我有与摩根士丹利进行交易的经验。高盛也曾在全球特定地区购买过实际的飞机。
英文原文
Consider the market in which airlines participate. Only airlines purchase jet fuel. Therefore, numerous oil companies will say that "supply jet fuel." Numerous oil companies, such as Glencore, Curia, and Vitol, sell jet fuel to airlines. The same goes for Morgan Stanley. I have experience trading with Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs has also purchased actual jets in specific regions around the world.对冲交易结构与期权策略
现在，你可以像这样与各种机构进行交易。我们是否应该从最基础的交易开始，也就是最普遍的交易？当然，可能会有复杂的方法或各种变量，但最基础的交易类型是什么？我将一步一步解释这个过程。
英文原文
Now, you can trade with various institutions like this. Shall we start with the most basic transaction, that is, the most common one? Of course, there may be complex methods or various variables, but what is the most basic type of transaction? I will explain the process step by step.那就是互换（swap）。互换是期货市场的衍生产品。你可以在期货市场上查出互换利率。例如，看两个月后的利率，4 月份的互换利率是通过考虑 5 月和 6 月的期货价格得出的。互换就是这样买的。互换是一种对称交易。因此，油价可能上涨也可能下跌。如果油价上涨，你可以最大程度减少损失，因此这是有利的，但如果油价下跌，你将蒙受损失。在我看来，最好在油价处于较低的双位数水平时进行互换交易，即在 25 到 35 美元左右。在这个数额下，互换交易应该不会有任何问题。
英文原文
It is a swap. A swap is a derivative product of the futures market. You can find out swap rates in the futures market. For example, looking at the interest rate two months from now, the April swap rate is obtained by considering the May and June futures prices. This is how you buy the swap. A swap is a symmetric transaction. So, oil prices can go up or down. If oil prices rise, you can minimize losses, so it is advantageous, but if they fall, you will suffer a loss. In my opinion, it is best to conduct swap transactions when oil prices are low in the low double digits, that is, around $25 to $35. With this amount, there shouldn't be any problems with the swap transaction.然而，当油价上涨到 70 至 80 美元时，人们开始担心高位水平会维持多久，并参与期权交易。也就是购买看涨期权。然而，问题是你必须为此支付成本。你必须支付费用，即期权费（premium）。在某些情况下，投资额度太低，无法支付购买看涨期权的成本。因此，我们卖出看跌期权来弥补该项成本。
英文原文
However, when oil prices rise to $70 to $80, people start to worry about how long they will maintain high levels and engage in option trading. You are buying a call option. However, the problem is that you have to pay the cost for it. You have to pay a fee, or a premium. In some cases, investment limits are too low to cover the cost of buying call options. So, we sell put options to cover that cost.最终，别无选择，只能使用零成本跨式期权策略（zero-cost collar）。你可以购买期权，使用零成本看涨期权，并进行互换。这些是非常基础的交易方法。
英文原文
In the end, there is no choice but to use a zero-cost collar strategy. You can buy options, use zero-cost call options, and perform swaps. These are very basic trading methods.然而，我在摩根大通构建的是目标赎回票据（Target Redemption Note）。在期权中既有常规方法，也有更复杂的方法。关键在于银行向航空公司出售目标偿还票据用于燃油对冲。
英文原文
However, what I structured at JP Morgan was a Target Redemption Note. There are general methods and more complex methods in the options. The key point is that banks sell target repayment bills to airlines for the purpose of fuel hedging.在常规方法中，假设我是银行，我与航空公司签订一个零成本看涨期权。然而，在这背后，我们构建了目标偿还票据。换句话说，它是要在 5 个月、1 年或 2 年后偿还的。通过这样做，你可以以复杂的方式按更优惠的条件购买原油，并且以更优惠的条件购买看涨期权。换句话说，你卖出一个看涨期权，但实际上，你卖出的是平价看涨期权。然而，背后隐藏着一个独特的策略。这些独特的策略也被称为延伸产品。
英文原文
In the general method, assuming I am a bank, I enter into a zero-cost call option with an airline. However, behind that, we structure target repayment bills. In other words, it is to be repaid after 5 months, 1 year, or 2 years. By doing this, you can buy crude oil on more favorable terms in a complex manner, and also buy call options on more favorable terms. In other words, you sell a call option, but in reality, you are selling an at-the-money call option. However, there is a unique strategy hidden behind it. These unique strategies are also called extension products.也有像我那样使用勒式期权策略（strangle）的情况。换句话说，你在同时卖出两种期权。你在大约 120 美元的最高价卖出看涨期权，并在 80 美元以下卖出看跌期权。我能够赚取利润，因为如果油价维持在那个区间，银行将支付期权费。真正有趣的是，我曾以为亚洲的这类债券或结构化产品主要是个人投资者用来押注大幅波动的。他们预期油价大幅上涨，就像在考斯比（Cosby）案例中一样。我从未想过这些产品可能与燃油对冲，即合规交易相关联。
英文原文
There are also cases where you use a strangle strategy, as I did. In other words, you are selling both options. You sell call options at the highest price of around $120 and sell put options below $80. I was able to make a profit because if oil prices stayed in that range, banks would pay a premium. What's really interesting is that I thought these kinds of bonds or structured products in Asia were mainly used by individual investors to bet on large fluctuations. They expect oil prices to rise significantly, just like in the Cosby case. I never imagined that these products could be related to fuel hedging, that is, legitimate trading.戴维（David），你刚才说的很有意思。你提到因为航空燃油交易市场本身太小，燃油对冲主要是通过布伦特原油交易完成的。那么，这是否意味着航空公司可能会大幅
英文原文
David, what you said earlier is quite interesting. You mentioned that because the jet fuel trading market itself is so small, fuel hedging is mostly done through Brent crude trading. In that case, does this mean that airlines could be significantly受到航空燃油与布伦特原油价格大幅波动的影响？正如你所知，那种价差变化非常快，就像我们今年早些时候看到的那样。你说得对，不是吗？
英文原文
affected due to the large fluctuations in jet fuel and Brent crude oil prices? As you know, that difference can change very quickly, as we saw earlier this year. You're right, aren't you?我认为这既是对的，也是不对的。确实，作为一家航空公司，根据我们所使用的燃料，我们不可避免地面临航空燃油市场的波动。使用航空燃油的套期保值策略是必要的，但航空燃油市场供应不足。这就是为什么我们使用布伦特原油市场。我再说一遍：做对冲总比完全不对冲要好。如果无法使用航空燃油进行对冲，那你就会完全暴露在风险之中。所以，我想不出更好的表达方式了，但人们使用布伦特原油的原因，是因为它是国际公认的价格。在美国，一些航空公司使用WTI（西得克萨斯中间基）原油，也有航空公司使用价格波动较大的取暖油。因此，美国航空燃油与取暖油之间的价差比预期的要小得多。就在最近，取暖油和TI的裂解价差超过了每桶100美元。最高涨到了107美元。这是一个巨大的差距。它是每桶230美元，但原油交易价格在110美元。布伦特原油在120美元左右。
英文原文
I think that it is both true and not true. It is true that as an airline, we are inevitably exposed to the volatility of the jet fuel market depending on what fuel we use. A hedging strategy using jet fuel is necessary, but the jet fuel market is short on supply. That is why we use the Brent oil market. I will say it again: it is better to hedge than not to hedge at all. If hedging using jet fuel is impossible, then you are completely exposed to risk. So, I can't think of a better way to put it, but the reason people use Brent crude is because it is the internationally accepted price. In the United States, some airlines use WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil, and there are also airlines that use heating oil, which has high price volatility. So, the price difference between jet fuel and heating oil in the U.S. is much narrower than expected. Just recently, the crack margins for heating oil and TI exceeded $100 per barrel. It went up to $107. It is a huge difference. It is $230 per barrel, but crude oil is trading at $110. Brent crude is around $120.在欧洲，柴油的裂解价差在74到75美元左右。欧洲航空燃油市场很难准确把握。这是因为没有公开市场。只有阿格斯（Argus）或普氏（Platts）等机构发布的数据。然而，正如你所知，他们公布的数据有时没有买入报价，只有买单。然后他们就直接抬高价格，并假设存在买入报价。或者，即使市场上只有买入报价而没有买单，数值也只是随意设定的。所以这是非常随意的。这正是大多数人不信任这些机构的原因。尤其是在预测航空燃油价格时。他们会根据自己更了解且流动性更高的商品来调整价格，例如伦敦柴油或美国取暖油。
英文原文
In Europe, the crack margin for diesel is around $74 to $75. The European jet fuel market is difficult to grasp accurately. It is because there is no open market. There are only figures released by institutions like Argus or Platts. However, as you know, the figures they announce sometimes have no bid prices and only buy orders. Then they just raise the price and assume there is a buy bid. Alternatively, even when there are only bid prices in the market and no buy orders, a value is simply set arbitrarily. So it is very arbitrary. This is exactly why most people do not trust these institutions. Especially when predicting jet fuel prices. They adjust prices based on commodities they understand better and have high liquidity, such as London gas oil or U.S. heating oil.确实如此。我刚才在终端上看到一张图表，非常有趣。如果回顾2月初，也就是3月份战争开始之前，布伦特原油上涨了50%，而新加坡航空燃油上涨了100%以上，也就是说翻了一倍多。在我看来，在至少从3月到5月中旬这段时间内，即便是对布伦特原油价格波动做了良好对冲的航空公司，如果购买了新加坡航空燃油，也会遭受重大损失。
英文原文
It is true. I just saw a chart in the terminal, and it is very interesting. If we go back to early February, that is, before the war started in March, Brent crude had risen by 50%, and Singapore jet fuel had risen by more than 100%, that is, more than doubled. In my opinion, even airlines that had well hedged against Brent crude price fluctuations would have suffered significant losses if they purchased Singapore aviation fuel during the period from at least March to mid-May.没错，但我除了从现有供应商那里购买之外，确实会购买新加坡航空燃油。等等，你能解释一下我经常看的这张图表吗？那不是重要的信息吗？啊，别说“我们”，乔。抱歉。我说“我们”时，指的不是我和特雷西，而是我在网上交谈过的所有人。现在，关于这张我不太了解却一直在看的图表，新加坡航空燃油有些不同。这是因为某些附属于特定石油巨头的贸易公司完全主导了市场。他们知道航空公司是这个市场上唯一的买家。
英文原文
That is correct, but I purchase Singapore aviation fuel except from existing suppliers. Wait, could you explain this chart that I always look at once? Isn't that important information? Ah, don't say 'we,' Jo. sorry. When I said 'we,' I wasn't referring to me and Tracy, but to everyone I talk to on the internet. Now, regarding this chart that I was looking at without knowing much about it, Singapore aviation fuel is a bit different. This is because certain trading companies affiliated with specific oil majors have completely dominated the market. They know that airlines are the only buyers in this market.没错。
英文原文
That's right.那该怎么妥当地表达呢？嗯，有时候人们会互相交谈。如果他们达成了某种共识，事情就会按照该协议进行。这是因为每个人都在看着同一个方向，以同样的方式交易。所以，这是一个主观的市场，而不是客观的市场。
英文原文
And how should I put this in a good way? Well, sometimes people talk to each other. And if they agree to something, things proceed according to that agreement. This is because everyone is looking in the same direction and trading in the same way. So, it is a subjective market rather than an objective one.是的。
英文原文
yes.所以，正如我提到的，只有新加坡现有的航空公司实际上对航空燃油进行对冲。其他航空公司并不这样做。
英文原文
So, as I mentioned, only Singapore's existing airlines actually hedge jet fuel. Other airlines don't do it.对冲与航司成本结构
航空公司仅靠提高票价和燃油附加费能赚多少钱？在理论上，你无疑考虑过航空旅行的价格弹性，但如果能将额外的燃油成本完全转嫁给客户，真的还需要对冲吗？
英文原文
How much money can airlines make just by raising fares and fuel surcharges? Theoretically, you have undoubtedly considered the price elasticity of air travel, but if you can pass on the additional fuel costs entirely to the customer, is there really a need to hedge?当油价较低时，对冲是有帮助的。这是因为在油价较低时，燃油附加费起不到作用。我们无法将燃油成本转嫁给客户，对吧？因为油价低，机票价格也必须降低。而且通常情况下，油价较低时正是全球经济不景气的时候。虽然在2014年和2015年并非如此，但在诸如2026年伊朗、美国和以色列之间的战争——正如我们现在目睹的——以及在1998年、2008年和2020年的情况下，大多数因素都是全球经济和地缘政治因素。
英文原文
Hedging is helpful when oil prices are low. This is because fuel surcharges have no effect when oil prices are low. We can't pass on fuel costs to the customers, can we? Since oil prices are low, airline ticket prices must also be lowered. And usually, when oil prices are low, it is a time when the global economy is not doing well. While this was not the case in 2014 and 2015, in situations such as the war between Iran, the United States, and Israel in 2026—which we are witnessing now, and in 1998, 2008, and 2020—most of the factors are global economic and geopolitical.因此，对冲之所以有用，是因为它可以防止下行风险，并在价格下跌时锁定价格。掉期、看涨期权、零成本看涨期权等就起到这样的作用。此外，随着油价上涨并在航空公司收入中占很大一部分，航空公司可能会因为燃油成本增加而收取附加费。旨在盈利的航空公司不会将这些附加费用反映在利润表上，但对冲是反映在利润表上的。因此，来自对冲的利润会增加。没有人预期会有附加费用进来。没有人能预测那里产生的利润，但他们确实会预测从对冲中产生的利润。因此，如果你处理得当、买得便宜，且市场持续上涨、经济向好，大家都想出行并且人们愿意付款，所以他们现在并不在乎附加费是多少。在这种情况下，你可以让利润翻倍。然而，与此同时，你必须对情况有非常好的把握。正如我所提到的，这就像炼油厂一样。机票是一种产品，该产品具有机票的价格。没有人告诉你机票价格是多少，但如果我现在可以说的话，由于燃油附加费，机票款大概占总票价的25%左右。而这是一个在全球范围内普遍适用的事实。目前，每个购买机票的人平均支付25%。
英文原文
Therefore, hedging is useful because it can prevent downside risk and lock in the price when it falls. Swaps, call options, zero-cost call options, etc., play this role. In addition, as oil prices are rising and account for a significant portion of airline revenue, airlines may impose additional fees due to the increase in fuel costs. Airlines aiming to make a profit do not reflect these additional charges on their income statement, but hedging is reflected on the income statement. Therefore, the profit from hedging increases. No one expects additional charges to come in. No one can predict the profits generated there, but they do predict the profits generated from the hedge. Therefore, if you handle it well and buy it cheaply, and the market continues to rise and the economy improves, everyone wants to travel and people are willing to pay, so they do not care how much the additional fee is right now. In this situation, you can double your profit. However, at the same time, you must have a very good grasp of the situation. As I mentioned, it is just like an oil refinery. An airline ticket is a product, and that product has the price of the airline ticket. No one tells you how much the airfare is, but if I may tell you now, due to the fuel surcharge, the airfare is probably about 25% of the total airfare. And this is a fact that applies generally worldwide. Currently, everyone purchasing airline tickets pays an average of 25%.实际上，你刚才略微提到了成本。那么，在谈到整体飞行成本或航空公司运营支出时，燃油成本基本上占总成本的25%吗？特雷西提到这是仅次于人工的第二大成本；在卡塔尔航空的案例中，这个因素有多重要？44%？你是说44%？
英文原文
Actually, you just mentioned a little about the cost. So, when talking about overall flight costs or airline operating expenses, does fuel cost basically account for 25% of the total cost? Tracy mentioned that it was the second-largest cost after labor; how important was this factor in the case of Qatar Airways? 44%? You're saying 44%?是的，是44%。这就是为什么我不得不这样表达。并且。
英文原文
Yes, it is 44%. That is why I had to express it this way. and.这对比我们来说是一件大事。如果想想其他航空公司，可以看到航空燃油成本占支出的25%到30%。人工成本也占了很大一部分。
英文原文
It was a huge deal for us. If you think about other airlines, you can see that jet fuel costs account for 25 to 30 percent of the expenses. And labor costs also account for a large portion.是的。
英文原文
yes.然而，我们的人工成本非常低。我们能够招募到大量的乘务员，并支付他们体面的薪水。当然，多哈的生活成本比机组人员的祖国要便宜。
英文原文
However, labor costs for us were very low. We were able to secure a large number of flight attendants and paid them decent wages. Of course, the cost of living in Doha was cheaper than in the crew's home country.是的。
英文原文
yes.所以我们从东欧和亚洲雇用了许多机组成员，尤其是客舱乘务员和飞行机组。
英文原文
So we hired many crew members from Eastern Europe and Asia, especially cabin crew and cockpit crew.虽然人工成本维持在较低水平，但面临的原油价格波动（尤其是航空燃油价格）风险达到了44%。几乎占到了成本的一半。
英文原文
Although labor costs were kept low, exposure to fluctuations in crude oil prices, particularly jet fuel prices, reached 44%. It was nearly half the cost.这确实令人惊讶。
英文原文
It is truly amazing.卡塔尔航空时期的对冲实践
你提到过自己必须找到一种创造性的方式，并说这正是你决定参与该项目的原因。你发表了一篇关于在卡塔尔航空任职期间实施的特定对冲策略的论文。首先，你能否简要解释一下当时你试图为你的雇主解决什么问题？
英文原文
You mentioned that you had to find a creative way, and said that is exactly why you decided to participate in this program. You published a paper on a specific hedging strategy you implemented during your time at Qatar Airways. First, could you briefly explain what problem you were trying to solve for your employer at the time?让我给你讲个小故事。很简单地说。我们对冲投资组合的亏损达到了2.8亿美元。所以当我加入时，我负责对冲投资组合，而在当时，公司报告的亏损为2.8亿美元。我有交易经验，所以花了一些时间来了解航空公司。正如你所知，我不熟悉企业管理。所以我必须去学习如何成为一名企业家、什么是财务部门、什么是对冲投资组合，以及如何增加价值。在努力学习并增加价值的同时，公司一度遭受了高达3.6亿美元的损失。于是CEO把CFO和我叫到办公室谈话。CEO问
英文原文
Let me tell you a short anecdote. Very simply. The losses on our hedge portfolio amounted to $280 million. So when I joined, I was in charge of the hedge portfolio, and at the time, the company was reporting a loss of $280 million. I have trading experience, so it took me some time to learn about airlines. As you know, I wasn't familiar with corporate management. So I had to learn how to become an entrepreneur, what a finance department is, what a hedge portfolio is, and how to add value. While trying to learn and add value, the company once suffered a loss of up to $360 million. So the CEO called the CFO and me into the office to talk. The CEO asked我问首席财务官 Daniel Ho：“Dan，我们为什么会亏损多达 3.6 亿美元？”当时我是一名刚加入公司的集团财务经理，我还记得那时我负责的事情。
英文原文
CFO Daniel Ho, "Dan, why are we losing as much as $360 million?" I asked. I was a group finance manager who had just joined the company at the time, and I remember what I was in charge of back then.你知道什么是“医院传球”（hospital pass）吗？就是当你把球传出去，大家都向球跑去，但球在没人知道谁会接应的情况下被踢走了。那就是当时的我。我接过了 Daniel 的病假接力棒。在和首席执行官交谈时我这样说道：“总裁先生，您知道，当油价上涨时，您通过掉期交易赚钱，对吧？您在实货交易中亏钱，因为您必须以更高的价格买入。但由于是浮动利率，风险较低。而当油价下跌时，您在套保交易中亏钱，但航油价格也下跌了。如果航油价格下跌，您在实货交易中就能赚取利润。”
英文原文
Do you know what a "hospital pass" is? When you pass the ball, everyone runs towards it, but it gets kicked away in a situation where no one knows who will receive it. That was me. I received sick leave from Daniel. And I said this while talking to the CEO. "You know, Mr. President, when oil prices rise, you make money through swap transactions, right? You lose money in physical trading because you have to buy at a higher price. But since it's a variable interest rate, the risk is low. And when oil prices fall, you lose money in hedging transactions, but jet fuel prices drop, too. If jet fuel prices fall, you make a profit in physical trading."他这样说：“David，你的套保组合正在出现亏损。你的收益管理部门也正在出现亏损。油价下跌时，全球经济很有可能疲软，就像我当年在卡塔尔航空时那样。如果经济糟糕，你就载不到乘客，飞机坐不满。最终，航班无法起飞，留下了未使用的燃油。这样，你就会蒙受亏损。你面临着双重负担，既在客票销售收入上亏钱，又在套保组合中亏钱。”对首席执行官来说，那是一个非常艰难的处境。他说：“David，你是集团的首席财务官。我不想再在财务报表上看到赤字了。你明白吗？”他说道。
英文原文
He said this. "David, you are seeing losses in your hedge portfolio. You are also seeing losses in revenue management. When oil prices fell, there was a high probability that the global economy would be weak back when I was at Qatar Airways. If the economy is bad, you cannot take passengers, and you cannot fill the planes. Eventually, flights cannot take off, and unused fuel remains. Then, you incur losses. You are facing a double burden, losing money in ticket sales revenue and in the hedge portfolio. It was a very difficult situation for the CEO. He said, 'David, you are the Group's Chief Financial Officer. I do not want to see deficits on the financial statements anymore. Do you understand?'" He said.“所以，在那次会议之后我意识到的是，我必须做一些既能产生利润又不会产生亏损、甚至能超越损益平衡点的事情。这就是我开始做自己该做的事并寻找创造性方法的原因之一。这个故事让我想起我作为一名航空记者最早学到的事情之一。一位资深的航空顾问曾告诉我，航空业类似于经营一家杂货店。存在固定成本，而且那些成本是有保质期的。是的。如果你不能按时卖掉所有产品或填满飞机座位，你最终就得承担所有这些成本。例如，假设你有 10 袋生菜或花椰菜。如果当天没有全部卖出，你就会损失所有的钱。所以，我将航空业和航空旅行视为具有这种较长保质期的行业。当然，占成本很大比重的项目保质期确实很短。”
英文原文
"So, what I realized after that meeting was that I had to do something that would generate a profit without incurring losses, or even surpass the break-even point. That is one of the reasons I started doing what I had to do and finding creative ways to do it. This story reminds me of one of the first things I learned as an aviation journalist. A long-time aviation consultant told me that the airline industry is similar to running a grocery store. There are fixed costs, and those costs have an expiration date. Yes. If you can't sell all the products on time or fill the aircraft seats, you end up bearing all those costs. For example, let's assume you have 10 bags of lettuce or cauliflower. If they aren't all sold that day, you lose all that money. So, I viewed the airline industry and air travel as industries with such long expiration dates. Of course, the items that account for a large portion of the costs have short expiration dates, though."有一项叫作飞机的固定成本。然而，我必须在特定的日期以特定的价格接载乘客。否则，你只会蒙受亏损。
英文原文
There is a fixed cost called the aircraft. However, I have to pick up passengers on a specific date at a specific price. Otherwise, you will only suffer a loss.没错。关键在于飞机的运营能力是无法通过库存来维持的。
英文原文
that's right. The point is that aircraft operational capability cannot be maintained through inventory.是的，完全正确。
英文原文
Yes, that is exactly right.那真的很有趣。我以前从未这样思考过。现在，想象一下你的老板走过来说：“别再承受这样的亏损了。”这是每个交易员的老板都想至少说一次的话。
英文原文
That's really interesting. I've never thought about it that way before. Now, imagine your boss comes over and says, "Stop taking such a loss." It is something every trader's boss wants to say at least once.票价附加费与套保策略
在这种情况下，我突然接到了不能承受任何亏损的指示。接下来我该做什么？
英文原文
In this situation, I suddenly received instructions not to suffer any losses. What should I do next?我和财务副经理坐下来，从各个角度讨论并审视了这个问题。我有石油交易方面的经验，所以当我看着一家炼油厂时，我知道它既是一个消费场所，也是一个生产场所。所以我说：“作为一家航空公司，我们必须生产某种东西。”我们在制造一把供你坐下的椅子，以便你能从 A 点移动到 B 点。所以，我是在制造一把椅子。但那把椅子里面有什么？会发生什么？“所以，我们一直在做估算，直到我们拿到了机票。机票里包含燃油附加费。我们分析了燃油附加费与布伦特原油价格之间的相关性。结果显示相关性约为 75%，这是一个具有显著意义的数字。
英文原文
I sat down with the deputy finance manager and discussed and reviewed this issue from various angles. I have experience in oil trading, so when I look at an oil refinery, I know that it is both a place of consumption and a place of production. So I said, "As an airline, we have to produce something." We are making a chair that you can sit on so that you can move from point A to point B. So, I'm making a chair. But what is inside that chair? What will happen? "So, we kept making estimates until we obtained the tickets. The tickets include a fuel surcharge. We analyzed the correlation between the fuel surcharge and the price of Brent crude. The result showed a correlation of approximately 75%, which is a significantly meaningful figure.是的。
英文原文
Yes.当然，我们购买了掉期合约来进行套保。我们套保了 88%，并且显示出与航油有 88% 的相关性。换句话说，燃油附加费与航油有 75% 的相关性，而布伦特原油与布伦特原油有 87% 或 85% 的相关性。因此，我们将布伦特原油作为替代指标。我们还发现附加费中存在相关性。因此，套期保值是可行的。这是一种大宗商品，而且是我们所销售的大宗商品。机票中既包含该商品，也包含利润。这就是我们对利润进行套保的地方。既有消费套保，也有利润套保。就这样，我们得出了这条曲线。我们坐下来连续分析了好几天。”在过去的几周里我想出了非常多的点子，而这就是结果。
英文原文
Of course, we purchased swaps for hedging. We were hedged by 88% and showed an 88% correlation with jet fuel. In other words, the fuel surcharge has a 75% correlation with jet fuel, while Brent crude has an 87% or 85% correlation with Brent crude. Therefore, we use Brent crude as a proxy indicator. We also discovered that there is a correlation in the surcharges. Thus, hedging is possible. This is a commodity, and it is a commodity that we sell. The ticket includes both the commodity and the profit. This is where we hedge the profit. There is both consumption hedging and profit hedging. In this way, we derived the curve. We sat and analyzed it for several days." I came up with so many ideas over the past few weeks, and this is the result.然后我去了收益管理部门，与时任收益管理高级副总裁的 Anko van der Werf 以及他的得力助手 Sven Lawson 进行了交谈。甚至连他们都没意识到自己实际上是在做多石油。我说：“实际上，你们正在做多石油。这正是你们赚取利润的方式，不是吗？你们一直通过额外费用来建立石油多头头寸。”他说道。
英文原文
Then I went to the revenue management department and spoke with Anko van der Werf, who was the senior vice president of revenue management at the time, and his right-hand man, Sven Lawson. Even they didn't realize that they were actually taking a long position on oil. I said, "Actually, you are taking a long position on oil. That is exactly how you make a profit, isn't it? You have been building long positions on oil through additional fees." He said.是的，没错。所以，航空公司做多石油背后的基本理念是，如果油价上涨，他们可以制定更高的价格，从而使他们能够将额外的营业利润投资于风险更高的期权策略。我说得对吗？
英文原文
Yes, that is correct. So, the basic idea behind airlines taking a long position on oil is that if oil prices rise, they can set higher prices, allowing them to invest the additional operating profit in riskier option strategies. Am I right?是的，没错。
英文原文
Yes, that is correct.太棒了。
英文原文
great.现在，在机票的一端建立了燃油多头头寸，在另一端则建立了燃油空头头寸。因为你需要航油来让飞机起飞。所以我们在一端建立了空头头寸，在另一端建立了多头头寸。现在，我们应该考虑什么？我们需要考虑生产商套保策略。这也是我们使用卖出看涨期权的勒式策略（strangle strategy）的原因之一。当我们卖出看涨期权时，那个看涨期权并不是无担保卖出。这是因为保护该看涨期权的费用已经包含在内了。
英文原文
Now, a fuel long position is created on one side of the ticket, and a fuel short position is created on the other side. Because you need jet fuel to take off an airplane. So we took a short position on one side and a long position on the other. Now, what should we think about? We need to consider a producer hedging strategy. This is one of the reasons why we used the strangle strategy of selling call options. When we sold a call option, that call option was not an unsecured sell. This is because the fee protecting that call option was included.你说得对。
英文原文
you're right.因此，即使我们卖出的看涨期权被行权，该手续费也会补偿该看涨期权上的损失。换句话说，我们在这方面受到了保护。相反地，我们卖出了看跌期权。如果油价下跌，卖出看跌期权对我们是有利的。当然，看跌期权上会有一些损失，但因为航油价格在下跌，你将能够以更低的价格购买航油。换句话说，这种勒式策略完全没有无担保卖出。完全没有任何裸露的部分。我考虑了所有的可能性。我们只关注了方向。
英文原文
Therefore, even if the call option we sold is exercised, the commission will compensate for the loss on that call option. In other words, we are being protected in that aspect. Conversely, we sold put options. If oil prices fall, selling put options is advantageous to us. Of course, there will be some losses on the put option, but because the price of jet fuel is falling, you will be able to purchase jet fuel at a lower price. In other words, this strangle strategy had no unsecured selling at all. There were no exposed parts at all. I considered all possibilities. We only looked at the direction.嗯。情况未必如此。
英文原文
hmm. That isn't necessarily the case.我并没有预测油价会走向何方。我们所做的，是的，是理解价格会均值回归。我曾预期它会在 100 美元维持 5 个月。然后我们认为我们要么能保本，要么会产生轻微亏损，要么会赚取丰厚利润。我当时很幸运。
英文原文
I did not predict where oil prices would go. What we did was, yes, understand that prices will revert to the mean. I expected it to stay at $100 for 5 months. Then we thought we would either break even, incur a slight loss, or make a substantial profit. I was lucky.你必须保持在一定区间内，对吧？
英文原文
You had to stay within a certain range, right?你说得对。
英文原文
you're right.是的。
英文原文
yes.是的。那非常有趣。我认为任何人听到“交易员”这个词时，他们脑海中浮现的都是一个人坐在电脑前试图赚钱的画面。我是指那些每天都试图获取更多现金的人。那么，为公司工作的交易员——也就是根据自身的业务需求利用市场而不是投机的人——其角色是什么呢？在那种情况下，识别一家公司的自然商业方向这项工作有多重要？你所发现或明确陈述的是，国泰航空长期以来由于客票价格在结构上维持了其品牌形象。这就是为什么他们能够在没有特定观点的情况下建立这样的头寸。如果是这样，无论是在你今天的职位上，还是在与其他航空公司乃至与你有业务往来的其他公司打交道时，真正理解一家公司的业务并确定其在特定市场中的自然风险敞口方向或商业策略这项工作，究竟有多重要呢？
英文原文
yes. That's very interesting. I think that when anyone hears the word 'trader,' they picture someone sitting in front of a computer trying to make money. I mean someone who tries to secure more cash every day. Then, what is the role of a trader working for a company—that is, someone who utilizes the market according to their own business needs rather than a speculator? In that case, how important is the task of identifying a company's natural business direction? What you have discovered or clearly stated is that Cathay Pacific has structurally maintained its brand image for a long time due to ticket prices. That is why they were able to establish such a position without a specific perspective. If so, whether you are in your position today, or dealing with other airlines or even other companies with whom you have business relationships, how important is the job to truly understand a company's business and identify its natural direction of exposure or business strategy in a specific market?因为我只在航空公司工作过，所以我只能谈谈
英文原文
Since I have only worked for airline companies, I can only speak about那方面。不过，我认为“对冲”这个词多少有些误导性。它其实是一种视角，是一笔交易。而且正如你指出的，公司内部的交易员并不自称交易员。那是因为那样叫会给合规部门惹来麻烦。这是因为他们认为对冲对自己有利。于是合规部门就抓狂了，说：“不，不，我们不是在做交易，我们是在对冲。”我会这么说。
英文原文
that aspect. However, I think the word 'hedging' is somewhat misleading. It is actually a perspective. It is a transaction. And as you pointed out, in-company traders do not call themselves traders. That is because calling it that causes problems for the compliance department. This is because they believe that hedging is advantageous to them. So the compliance department went into a frenzy and said, "No, no, we aren't trading; we are hedging." I will say that.那么你是在对冲什么？如果消费者购买了他们消费的商品，价格就被固定下来了。生产商必须卖出拉面，而那是锁定在峰值时所获利润的唯一途径。因此，公司并不轻易接受“交易”这个词。我理解。审计部门也不喜欢它。
英文原文
Then what are you hedging? If a consumer buys the goods they consume, then the price becomes fixed. Producers have to sell the ramen, and that is the only way to secure the profits obtained at the peak. Therefore, companies do not readily accept the word 'transaction'. I understand. The audit department doesn't like it either.然而，我认为我们可以找到一种方法将某种产品与特定风险挂钩。例如像航空燃油。你也会在其他公司找到类似的联系。然后，如果你进行对冲，你就能得到保护。就像食品市场一样。因为它是具有保质期的产品，必须在一天内解决。我确信会有人找到利用特定技术延长该期限的方法。如果他们那样做，他们现在获得的将是长期利益，而非短期收益。嗯，这就是背景。
英文原文
However, I believe we can find a way to link a product to a specific risk. For example, like jet fuel. You will be able to find similar connections at other companies as well. Then, if you hedge, you can be protected. Just like the food market. Because it is a product with an expiration date. It must be resolved within one day. I am confident that someone will find a way to extend that period using specific technology. If they do that, they will now gain long-term benefits rather than short-term gains. Well, that is the context.我想听听你通过这个具体的对冲策略赚了多少钱，以及当这个策略向管理层披露时，卡塔尔航空发生了什么。
英文原文
I would like to hear how much money you made with this specific hedging strategy, and what happened at Qatar Airways when this strategy was disclosed to management.是的，是1.3亿美元。事实上，我们公司当年的销售额录得6500万美元的亏损。嗯。如果不是我的对冲策略，我们本会遭受损失。此外，多亏了我的对冲策略，尽管当时我可能会产生损失，但由于我通过对冲策略获得了利润，收益部门得以降低运费。
英文原文
Yes, it was $130 million. In fact, our company's sales that year recorded a loss of $65 million. hmm. If it weren't for my hedging strategy, we would have suffered a loss. Furthermore, thanks to my hedging strategy, although I could have incurred a loss at the time, the revenue department was able to lower freight rates because I made a profit through the hedging strategy.啊，所以卡塔尔航空过去曾是个后来者。阿联酋航空乃至经济舱都一路跟随。所以，EK代表阿联酋航空，EY代表阿提哈德航空。我始终处于跟随其他航空公司的位置。那是一种如果阿联酋航空降价，我们也降价；如果阿联酋航空提价，我们也提价的体系。然而，在和我叔叔一起工作期间，我给了他作为领跑者的优势，而他很好地利用了那个优势。我们得以通过降价20%来引领市场。而且客座率也极高。几乎所有的飞机都达到了80%到90%的满载率。所以从某种意义上说，我为我叔叔创造了那个机会，而他很好地利用了它。我认为，就像你在生活中所做的一切事情一样，你应该始终努力为食物链增加价值。
英文原文
Ah, so Qatar Airways used to be a latecomer. Emirates and even economy class followed along. So, EK stands for Emirates, and EY stands for Etihad Airways. I was always in a position of following other airlines. It was a system where if Emirates lowered fares, we lowered them too, and if Emirates raised fares, we raised them too. However, while working with my uncle, I gave him the advantage of being a frontrunner, and he made good use of that advantage. We were able to lead the market by lowering prices by 20%. And the seat occupancy rate was also tremendous. Almost all the planes were 80 to 90% full. So, in a sense, I created that opportunity for my uncle, and he made good use of it. I think that, like everything you do in life, you should always try to add value to the food chain.既然你提到了其他中东航空公司，这可能是一个有些敏感的问题，但我还是打算问，因为我想许多人都会感到好奇。关于中东航空公司，我可以问许多敏感的问题，但我更想具体问问像阿联酋和卡塔尔这样的国家。这些地区以拥有丰富的石油储备而闻名，那么他们为何要特意从国外进口航空燃油呢？这些国家为什么不向其国内航空公司提供补贴呢？例如，通过与其他地区的炼油厂置换布伦特原油来获取更便宜的航空燃油。
英文原文
Since you brought up other Middle Eastern airlines, this might be a somewhat sensitive question, but I’m going to ask because I think many people would be curious. There are many sensitive questions I could ask about Middle Eastern airlines, but I would like to ask more specifically about countries like the UAE and Qatar. These regions are known to have abundant oil reserves, so why would they go out of their way to import jet fuel from abroad? Why don't these countries provide subsidies to their domestic airlines? For example, by exchanging Brent crude with refineries in other regions to obtain cheaper jet fuel.航空业具有一种从枢纽机场向外延伸出各种航线的结构，不是吗？它在世界各地运营航班，但大多数时候都会途经中东。然而，飞机上所能装载的航空燃油量是有限的，要想执飞长途航线，就必须在目的地加油。最终，是由中东在决定价格。不是我们，而是对方。对吧？
英文原文
The aviation industry has a structure where various routes extend outward from a hub airport, doesn't it? It operates flights all over the world, but most of the time it passes through the Middle East. However, there is a limit to the amount of jet fuel that can be carried on an aircraft, and to fly long distances, you must refuel at the destination. Ultimately, it is the Middle East that dictates the prices. It is not us, but the other side. Right?好吧。
英文原文
All right.是的，我的意思是，我说的是卡塔尔石油公司（QP）。与QP做交易并不是一段非常愉快的经历。因为QP有一家叫沃库德（Woqod）的子公司，那家公司以每加仑3.65美元的价格卖给我们航空燃油。然而，当我们去迪拜获取航空燃油时，雪佛龙是以每加仑2.95美元的价格在出售。这太荒谬了。所以，面对他们的国有石油公司，我们承受了70%的损失。这真的很荒谬。
英文原文
Yes, I mean, I'm talking about Qatar Oil Corporation (QP). Trading with QP wasn't a very pleasant experience. Because QP had a subsidiary called Woqod, and that company sold us jet fuel for $3.65 per gallon. However, when we went to Dubai to get jet fuel, Chevron was selling it for $2.95 per gallon. It was ridiculous. So, we suffered a loss of 70% to their state-owned oil company. It's really ridiculous.而且当我们接收787梦想客机时，你宣布我们将前往迪拜并将其用于机组培训。但实际上，我是在燃油几乎完全耗尽的情况下过去的。大概连5吨都没有。4吨，还是大约4吨？在燃油几乎完全耗尽的情况下，我甚至无法在迪拜机场盘旋。我们必须立刻降落。它在降落时能载100吨燃油。
英文原文
And when we took delivery of the 787 Dreamliner, you announced that we would go to Dubai and use it for crew training. But actually, I went with the fuel almost completely depleted. It probably wasn't even 5 tons. 4 tons or about 4 tons? With the fuel almost completely depleted, I couldn't even circle Dubai Airport. We had to land right away. It can carry 100 tons of fuel when landing.所以，你们在迪拜加油了？
英文原文
So, you tanked fuel in Dubai?是的。你说得对。我们给我们自己在多哈国际机场的储油罐加了油。储存容量大约为900万到1000万加仑。这是相当可观的数量。即使他们无法从其他地方获取航空燃油，航空公司也能够运营一天。对吧？你可以飞一天。
英文原文
yes. you're right. We refueled our own storage tank at Doha International Airport. The storage capacity is approximately 9 million to 10 million gallons. It's a pretty decent amount. Even if they cannot get jet fuel from elsewhere, airlines will be able to operate for a day. Right? You can fly for a day.很有意思。能否请你谈谈你对当前局势的看法？截至9月29日，我很想知道业内处于你这种职位的人所面临的处境，特别是关于航空公司所处的状况——考虑到机票销售预计会很火爆，外加石油和成品油价格飞涨——以及他们在燃油供应方面是如何应对的。
英文原文
That's interesting. Would you please tell me your thoughts on the current situation? As of September 29, I am curious about the situation facing those in your position in the industry, particularly regarding the situation airlines are in—considering that ticket sales are expected to be booming, plus the skyrocketing oil and refined oil prices—and how they are responding in terms of fuel supply.我认为他们担心对冲支出而且不知所措，因此目前看来他们正在将负担转嫁给客户。如你所知，许多航空公司在2020年遭受了巨额损失。
英文原文
I think they are worried about spending hedging and don't know what to do, so it seems they are currently passing the burden on to the customers. As you know, many airlines suffered huge losses in 2020.是的。
英文原文
yes.因为燃油对冲。达美航空遭受了超过10亿美元的损失，可以说亚洲一家非常著名的航空公司也遭受了近20亿美元的损失。是的，所以要弄清地缘政治局势如何发展并不容易，但最终，这被转嫁给了客户。这就是为什么他们把机票当作武器。我也那样做过。我构想出的定价方法将利润武器化了。我不确定自那以后是否还有其他人使用过那个架构。
英文原文
Because of fuel hedging. Delta Airlines suffered a loss of over $1 billion, and it can be said that a very famous airline in Asia also suffered a loss of nearly $2 billion. Yes, so it is not easy to figure out how the geopolitical situation is unfolding, but ultimately, it is passed on to the customers. That is why they use airline tickets as a weapon. I did that too. The pricing method I devised weaponized profit. I'm not sure if anyone else has used that structure since then.我原本打算去新加坡参加一次金融会议并展示我的成果，但首席执行官说不行。你不会在金融会议上提起这个话题，对吧？这是因为我们不想泄露我们的秘密。没有别人在做这项工作。而他们不做这项工作的原因之一就是审计机构。持有某些航空公司股份的主权财富基金认为，消费者卖油是不对的。我认为大多数人和财务经理并没有正确理解这个问题。你绝不能把他们当成蒙着眼罩的马。他们认为对冲以确保航空公司安全仅仅被看作是购买燃油。然而，航空公司还有另外一面。你必须考虑一切，制定自己的战略，并创造利润。
英文原文
I planned to attend a finance conference in Singapore and present my work, but the CEO said no. You won't bring up this topic at the finance meeting, right? It is because we do not want to reveal our secret. No one else is doing this work. And one of the reasons they don't do it is because of the auditing body. Sovereign wealth funds that own some airlines believe that it is not right for consumers to sell oil. I think most people and finance managers do not properly understand this issue. You must not think of them as blindfolded horses. They think that hedging to keep the airline safe is simply seen as purchasing fuel. However, there is another aspect to airlines. You must consider everything, formulate your own strategy, and generate profit.严格说来，这个问题与航空公司无关，但它是与新闻中出现的成品油相关的话题。随着柴油危机冲击美国，柴油价格飞涨，并且有很多传言说美国可能会实施柴油出口禁令。听到这样的消息，你怎么看？
英文原文
Strictly speaking, this question is not about airlines, but it is a topic related to refined products that are appearing in the news. As the diesel crisis hits the U.S., diesel prices are skyrocketing, and there is a lot of talk that the U.S. may implement a ban on diesel exports. What do you think when you hear something like this?嗯，这可能有点天马行空，但这让我想起了炸玉米饼。你知道，特朗普喜欢炸玉米饼。那么，如果一个国家禁止出口成品油，市场上会出现什么样的连锁反应呢？
英文原文
Hmm, it might be a bit random, but it reminds me of tacos. Trump likes tacos, you know. So, if a country bans the export of refined oil, what kind of ripple effects will occur in the market?俄罗斯是那样，中国在某种程度上也是那样。但俄罗斯是世界第二大柴油出口国，不是吗？因此，柴油供应大幅减少。坦白说，欧洲现在的柴油短缺很严重。这也是伦敦汽油和柴油价格暴涨的原因之一。而且我认为这项出口禁令实际上更接近于一种公开宣言。因此，由于这类调查，美国的柴油和取暖油价格是不升反降。这是因为墨西哥湾或PAD 3区是美国的主要产油区。所有的炼油厂都坐落在那里。
英文原文
Russia was like that, and China was like that to some extent as well. But Russia is the world's second-largest diesel exporter, isn't it? So, the diesel supply has decreased significantly. To be honest, the diesel shortage in Europe is serious right now. It is also one of the reasons why London gas and oil prices have skyrocketed. And I think this export ban was actually closer to a public declaration. So, due to such investigations, diesel and heating oil prices in the U.S. fell instead of rising. This is because the Gulf of Mexico or the PAD 3 region are major oil production areas in the United States. All the oil refineries are located there.是的。
英文原文
yes成品油跨洋贸易与美东供求
所以，所有的石油产品都来自那里。纽约港也是如此。如你所知，美国东海岸并不容易进出。那里可能有一些小型管线，但也仅此而已。对他们而言，通过海运贸易将航空煤油、柴油和取暖油从墨西哥湾运到纽约就是全部。因此，东海岸经常从欧洲进口柴油。这是为了确保任何时候都不会发生短缺。
因此，随着美国东海岸开始进口柴油，伦敦柴油（London Gas Oil）自然受益，而取暖油则受到了打击。而且大部分取暖油已经运往南美。所以，运往欧洲的数量并没有那么大。大概每天有 50 万桶会运往南美（ARA），10 万桶运往英国，剩下的 15 万桶运往欧洲。噢，抱歉，所以 ARA 是欧洲。
英文原文
So, all petroleum products come from there. The same goes for the Port of New York. As you know, the US East Coast is not easily accessible. There may be small-scale pipelines, but that is all. For them, maritime trade selling jet fuel, diesel, and heating oil from the Gulf of Mexico to New York is everything. So the East Coast often imports diesel from Europe. It is to ensure that a shortage does not occur at any time.Therefore, as the US East Coast began importing diesel, London Gas Oil naturally benefited, while heating oil took a hit. And most of the heating oil is already heading to South America. So, the amount going to Europe isn't that large. Probably about 500,000 barrels a day will go to South America (ARA), 100,000 barrels to the UK, and the remaining 150,000 barrels to Europe. Oh, I'm sorry. So ARA is Europe.
所以，从墨西哥湾运往欧洲的数量并不是很大。然而，似乎存在通过巴拿马运河，用阿芙拉型（Aframax）、远距离二级船（long-distance Class II）甚至巴拿马型（Panamax）船只从美国墨西哥湾沿岸运往亚洲的贸易。所以，它是从日本进口到美国墨西哥湾沿岸，一路运到东京的中部港（Chubu Port）。我已经开始期待今年冬天温暖我在康涅狄格州的房子了。
英文原文
So, the volume going from the Gulf of Mexico to Europe is not very large. However, it seems there is trade in transporting Aframax, long-distance Class II, or even Panamax ships from the US Gulf Coast to Asia via the Panama Canal. So, it is imported from Japan to the U.S. Gulf Coast, all the way to Chubu Port in Tokyo. I'm already looking forward to warming up my house in Connecticut this winter.燃油对冲与航空公司的经营现实
大卫·金（David King）先生，非常感谢你来到 Odd Lots。如果有人想了解更多细节，可以在 SSRN 上找到这篇论文。论文题为《21 世纪的燃油对冲：航空公司如何先发制人地调整收入》（"21st Century Fuel Hedging: How All Airlines Preemptively Adjust Revenue"）。
大卫，非常感谢。我衷心感谢你们的邀请。
英文原文
Mr. David King, thank you very much for appearing on Odd Lots. For those who would like more details, you can find the paper at SSRN. The title is "21st Century Fuel Hedging: How All Airlines Preemptively Adjust Revenue."David, thank you very much. I sincerely thank you for the invitation.
乔（Joe），我真的很开心终于有人能跟我详细聊聊燃油对冲了。
卡塔尔航空（Qatar Airways）用油轮从迪拜向多哈运送原油的故事，是我最喜欢的航空燃油相关故事之一。我不久前在播客里提到过这个，大概是几年前了。当时高档航空公司 Silverjet 正处于破产边缘，债权人降低了其燃油支出的信用额度。于是该公司的首席执行官用自己的个人信用卡支付了全部燃油费用。你可能听说过类似的故事。
等等，那张个人信用卡上的积分是英国航空（British Airways）的里程。所以他最后赚取了巨额的英航里程。那真是太不可思议了。你看起来充满斗志。联邦快递（FedEx）当年也是创始人用个人信用卡积累债务起家的，不是吗？仔细想想，这确实很神奇。那真是一个精彩的故事。
英文原文
Joe, I am really glad to finally have someone to talk to about fuel hedging in detail.The story of Qatar Airways transporting crude oil from Dubai to Doha by tanker is one of my favorite stories related to aviation fuel. I mentioned this on a podcast a while ago, probably a few years ago. When the luxury airline Silver Jet was on the verge of bankruptcy, creditors reduced the credit limit for fuel expenses. So the company CEO paid the entire fuel cost with his personal credit card. You have probably heard a story like this.
Wait, the points on that personal credit card were British Airways miles. So he ended up earning a huge amount of British Airways miles. That's really amazing. You look full of fighting spirit. FedEx also started with its founder accumulating debt using personal credit cards, didn't it? Come to think of it, it's really amazing. It was a really wonderful story.
我认为这期节目中最有意思的地方在于，虽然我明白他们在企业环境中不喜欢“交易员”（trader）这个称呼，但这实际上正是他们所做的事情。因为这涉及卖出看涨期权并买入看跌期权。典型的交易员一心只想着利润最大化，但如果你能正确理解公司的核心市场环境，就没有必要去引导方向。重要的是保持那种平衡。当然，油价走高时销售额可能会增加，但你可以看到，要计算出这种波动性有多少能够体现出来，是多么复杂的一件事。一想到航空公司，自然就会担心燃油短缺，对吧？尽管存在对燃油短缺的隐性担忧，但在某些情况下，人们实际上可能会对燃油采取隐性的多头头寸。准确识别这些风险敞口非常重要。我认为那是相当有意思的一部分。
英文原文
What I found most interesting in this episode is that while I understand they don't like the term 'trader' in a corporate environment, that is actually exactly what they do. Because it involves selling call options and buying put options. Typical traders focus solely on maximizing profits, but if you properly understand the company's core market conditions, there is no need to provide direction. The important thing is to strike that balance. Of course, sales can increase when oil prices are high, but you can see how complicated it is to calculate how much of that volatility can be reflected. When you think of airlines, naturally there are concerns about oil shortages, right? Although there are implicit concerns about oil shortages, in certain situations, one might actually take an implicit long position on oil. It is important to accurately identify these risk exposures. I think that is a really interesting part.是的，我完全同意。航空业中有一个往往被忽视的方面：存在另一个可以影响价格波动的因素。就像那个面包店的故事。正如芝加哥的一位面包店老板在鸡蛋价格上涨、人们通过新闻得知这一消息时提高价格一样，在油价暴涨这类情况下，机票价格似乎也受到相当大弹性的影响。然而，相反地，也确实存在可能发生石油供应短缺的情况。届时会发生什么，我们还得拭目以待。
看看眼下的航空业，它似乎准确反映了经济状况。因为虽然物价都在上涨，但人们却在疯狂坐飞机出行。这真的是一个庞大的规模。单看航空业，你就能看出全球经济正在蓬勃发展。人们看着机票价格抱怨成本上涨，但总体旅行需求仍在持续增加。这似乎完全没有影响到旅行活动。这确实是一个繁荣的经济体。
英文原文
Yes, I completely agree. There is an aspect often overlooked in the aviation industry: the existence of another factor that can influence price fluctuations. Just like the story of a bakery. Just as a bakery owner in Chicago raises prices when people learn about it through the news when egg prices rise, it seems that significant elasticity is at play in airline ticket prices in situations like soaring oil prices. However, conversely, there is also a possibility that an oil supply shortage could actually occur. We'll have to wait and see what happens then.Looking at the aviation industry right now, it seems to accurately reflect the economic situation. Because while all prices are rising, people are flying like crazy. It's a really massive scale. If you look at the aviation industry alone, you can see that the global economy is booming. People look at airline ticket prices and complain about the rising costs, but overall travel demand continues to increase. It doesn't seem to have affected travel activities at all. It is a really booming economy.
节目收尾
好了，我们就在这里结束吧？
又一期 Odd Lots 播客到此结束。我是特蕾西·阿洛威（Tracy Alloway）。你可以在 Tracy Alloway 上关注我。我是乔·威森塔尔（Joe and Ijen Tal）。请在 The Stalwart 上关注我。也请关注制作人卡门·罗德里格斯（Carmen Rodriguez / Carmen Arman）、达什博特·贝内特（Dashbot Bennett）、凯莱布·布鲁克斯（Caleb Brooks）以及凯文·劳埃德·洛扎诺（Kevin Lloyd Lozano）。
想要获取更多 Odd Lots 内容，请在 bloomberg.com/oddlots 查看每日简报和全部往期节目。你也可以全天 24 小时随时在 Discord（discord.gg/oddlots）上讨论所有这些话题。如果你喜欢这次对话，并且希望我和乔制作更多关于航空公司的节目，请在你喜爱的播客平台上留下好评。如果你是彭博社订阅用户，可以免广告收听全部节目。你可以在 Apple Podcasts 上找到 Bloomberg 频道并按照指引操作。
感谢收听。
英文原文
Okay, shall we wrap it up here?This concludes another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I am Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Tracy Alloway. I am Joe and Ijen Tal. Follow me at The Stalwart. Please also follow producers Carmen Rodriguez (Carmen Arman), Dashbot Bennett, Caleb Brooks, and Kevin Lloyd Lozano. For more Odd Lots content, check out the daily newsletter and all episodes at bloomberg.com/oddlots. You can also talk about all these topics anytime, 24 hours a day, on Discord (discord.gg/oddlots). If you enjoyed this conversation and would like Joe and I to produce more episodes about airlines, please leave a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. If you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all episodes without ads. You can find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions.
Thank you for listening.