市场概览与早期动荡
This is Bloomberg Businessweek Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy.
《Bloomberg Businessweek Daily》带来深度报道，帮助全球领导者了解塑造当今复杂经济的人物、公司和趋势，保持领先。
Plus, global business, finance and tech news as it happens, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily with Carol Massar and Tim Stent event live on Bloomberg Radio, Television, YouTube and Bloomberg Originals.
此外，还有全球商业、金融和科技的实时新闻。《Bloomberg Businessweek Daily》由卡罗尔·马萨尔和蒂姆·斯坦特直播，通过彭博广播、电视、YouTube和彭博原创平台播出。
Carol Massar: And very good afternoon, everybody. Yes, across Bloomberg platforms.
Carol Massar: 大家下午好。是的，在彭博的各个平台上。
Carol Massar: I'm Carol Massar here at Bloomberg headquarters in New York City.
Carol Massar: 我是卡罗尔·马萨尔，在纽约市的彭博总部。
Carol Massar: He is not Tim Stent. He is Matthew Miller, who has been all over the place today.
Carol Massar: 他不是蒂姆·斯坦特。他是马修·米勒，今天他忙得不可开交。
Matthew Miller: Yeah, a lot going on today.
Matthew Miller: 是的，今天发生了很多事。
Matthew Miller: Is this on? This is on. Okay.
Matthew Miller: 这个开着吗？开着呢。好的。
Matthew Miller: There's so much going on today. The amazing gyrations that we had.
Matthew Miller: 今天发生的事情太多了，市场出现了惊人的波动。
Matthew Miller: On Friday, we were down 2.7%. Yesterday, we were back up one and a half percent. This morning, we were back down 1% and now we're back up.
Matthew Miller: 周五我们下跌了2.7%。昨天，我们又上涨了1.5%。今天早上，我们又下跌了1%，现在又涨回来了。
Matthew Miller: It's just insane this trade and the market clearly just wants to rally.
Matthew Miller: 这种交易简直是疯狂，市场显然就是想反弹。
Carol Massar: Well, and I think one of the things is what's happening with the US-China trade negotiations.
Carol Massar: 嗯，我认为其中一个因素是美中贸易谈判的进展。
Carol Massar: We've definitely seen that's what happened on Friday. We've seen that play out already on Monday and Tuesday here.
Carol Massar: 我们确实看到了周五发生的情况。我们已经看到周一和周二的市场表现。
Carol Massar: It's also the big banks reporting JPMorgan, Goldman, Wells Fargo, Citi.
Carol Massar: 还有大型银行的财报，包括摩根大通、高盛、富国银行和花旗银行。
Carol Massar: Not all the stocks reacted the same. Investors like some. They didn't like the others.
Carol Massar: 并非所有股票反应都相同。投资者喜欢一些，不喜欢另一些。
Matthew Miller: That's right. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs both down even as the market turned higher.
Matthew Miller: 没错。摩根大通和高盛都下跌了，即使市场整体走高。
Matthew Miller: So I was talking to Sree this morning. We're going to talk to him in a little bit.
Matthew Miller: 我今天早上和斯里聊过。我们稍后会和他谈谈。
Matthew Miller: Yeah. And he said, look, the macro picture really does affect these stocks.
Matthew Miller: 是的。他说，宏观经济形势确实会影响这些股票。
Matthew Miller: But I talked to an analyst over at Baird who said the problem with JPMorgan is it's a great company, its stock is too expensive and that's maybe why it's trading down.
Matthew Miller: 但我与贝尔德的一位分析师交流过，他说摩根大通的问题在于它是一家伟大的公司，但其股票价格过高，这也许是它下跌的原因。
Matthew Miller: Even though it's down today, it's up 27% year to date.
Matthew Miller: 尽管今天下跌，但年初至今它已上涨了27%。
Matthew Miller: So there you have it, folks.
Matthew Miller: 好了，各位。
Carol Massar: Hey, we're going to talk about that. We're going to get into US-China trade talks ongoing.
Carol Massar: 嘿，我们要谈谈这个。我们将深入探讨正在进行的美中贸易谈判。
Carol Massar: Some starts, some stops. We see that play out.
Carol Massar: 时而开始，时而暂停。我们看到了这种变化。
Carol Massar: A fascinating story, and current global trade flows moving on to avoid the highest U.S. tariffs since 1930.
Carol Massar: 还有一篇引人入胜的报道，关于当前全球贸易流动的变化，以避免自1930年以来最高的美国关税。
Carol Massar: Matt, the world is moving on it.
Carol Massar: 马特，世界正在为此而改变。
Matthew Miller: Well, I just wonder if the rare earths (稀土: 一组具有独特磁性、电学和光学性质的金属元素，在现代科技中广泛应用) risk isn't underappreciated here.
Matthew Miller: 嗯，我只是想知道这里的稀土风险是否被低估了。
Matthew Miller: I mean, they seem to have us by the short hairs there.
Matthew Miller: 我的意思是，他们似乎抓住了我们的软肋。
Carol Massar: Yeah, because you talk about China.
Carol Massar: 是的，因为你谈到中国。
Matthew Miller: Yeah, China because we don't even mine them. If we did mine them, we can't refine them.
Matthew Miller: 是的，中国，因为我们甚至不开采它们。即使我们开采了，也无法提炼。
Matthew Miller: And I'm not sure we could get that off the ground beyond military capability.
Matthew Miller: 我不确定我们除了军事能力之外，还能否将其付诸实施。
Matthew Miller: So they have its parts. They have the cards.
Matthew Miller: 所以他们掌握着关键部分。他们掌握着主动权。
Carol Massar: Yeah, exactly.
Carol Massar: 是的，没错。
Carol Massar: All right. Lots to come. Also, Matt's big interview with Paul Tudor Jones.
Carol Massar: 好的。还有很多内容。还有马特对保罗·都铎·琼斯的重要采访。
Carol Massar: There's a lot coming. You don't want to go anywhere for the next 60 minutes.
Carol Massar: 节目内容丰富。接下来的60分钟你不会想离开。
Carol Massar: First up, though, let's get a check on the trade. Your top business stories here is Charlie.
Carol Massar: 不过，首先让我们看看市场交易情况。查理将带来头条商业新闻。
市场波动与银行财报
Charlie: Thank you very much. Great to be back.
Charlie: 非常感谢。很高兴回来。
Charlie: And we're looking at a lot of moving parts to this market, including earnings, including tariffs and including Fed Chair Jay Powell.
Charlie: 市场现在有很多变动因素，包括财报、关税以及美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔。
Charlie: A volatile session for the U.S. stock market, as Matt alluded to, Fed Chair Powell reinforcing speculation that officials are on track to cut rates in October amid a weakening labor market.
Charlie: 正如马特提到的，美国股市今天波动剧烈，美联储主席鲍威尔强化了市场猜测，即在劳动力市场走弱的情况下，官员们有望在10月降息。
Charlie: You heard his remarks live on Bloomberg Television and radio.
Charlie: 你们在彭博电视和电台上听到了他的直播讲话。
Charlie: The S&P (Standard & Poor's: 标普指数，衡量美国大型上市公司表现的股票市场指数) right now up 20. We're close to session highs, up by about 0.3%.
Charlie: 标普指数目前上涨20点。我们接近盘中高点，上涨约0.3%。
Charlie: The Dow (Dow Jones Industrial Average: 道琼斯工业平均指数，由30家美国大型上市公司组成) up 425, a gain there of 0.9%.
Charlie: 道琼斯工业平均指数上涨425点，涨幅为0.9%。
Charlie: And we've got Nasdaq (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations: 纳斯达克指数，以科技股为主的股票市场指数) lower now by 0.2%.
Charlie: 纳斯达克指数现在下跌0.2%。
Charlie: The ten year at 4.02%. Now with a two year, 3.47%, gold is up $41.
Charlie: 10年期国债收益率为4.02%。2年期为3.47%，黄金上涨41美元。
Charlie: The ounce at 4151, up 1%.
Charlie: 每盎司黄金价格为4151美元，上涨1%。
Charlie: And West Texas Intermediate (WTI - West Texas Intermediate: 西德克萨斯中质原油，一种原油价格基准) crude oil down 1.1%, WTI 58.83 a barrel and Bitcoin (比特币: 一种去中心化的数字加密货币) down 2.5%, 112,950.
Charlie: 西德克萨斯中质原油下跌1.1%，每桶58.83美元；比特币下跌2.5%，目前价格为112,950美元。
Charlie: Now on Bitcoin, traders are focused on the unofficial start of the earnings season.
Charlie: 现在谈到比特币，交易员们正关注财报季的非正式开始。
Charlie: Among the names reporting this morning, JPMorgan Chase down now by 0.6%.
Charlie: 今天早上公布财报的公司中，摩根大通下跌0.6%。
Charlie: Citigroup surging 4.8%, Wells Fargo up by 8.8%.
Charlie: 花旗集团飙升4.8%，富国银行上涨8.8%。
Charlie: Goldman down now by 0.3%.
Charlie: 高盛现在下跌0.3%。
Charlie: Tomorrow, we will be hearing from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley for on-demand news 24 hours a day.
Charlie: 明天我们将听到美国银行和摩根士丹利的报告。要获取24小时点播新闻。
Charlie: Subscribe to Bloomberg News now wherever you get your podcasts.
Charlie: 请立即订阅彭博新闻，无论您在哪里收听播客。
Charlie: I'm Charlie Peloton. That is a Bloomberg Business flash.
Charlie: 我是查理·佩洛顿。这是彭博商业快讯。
Carol Massar: All right, Charlie, thank you so much. As Matt and I said, a lot going on on this Tuesday.
Carol Massar: 好的，查理，非常感谢。正如马特和我所说，这个周二发生了很多事情。
Carol Massar: We do want to remind everybody we are monitoring a live event that's happening right now in the White House, in the Oval Office.
Carol Massar: 我们想提醒大家，我们正在监测白宫椭圆形办公室正在進行的一场直播活动。
Carol Massar: President Trump is meeting with Argentinian President Javier Milei.
Carol Massar: 特朗普总统正在会见阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱。
Carol Massar: We're going to continue to follow that. Of course, they've been having a meeting, a luncheon, a bilateral luncheon, if you will, and obviously some significant developments between these two nations.
Carol Massar: 我们将继续关注。当然，他们一直在举行会议，一次午餐会，如果可以这么说的话，一次双边午餐会，显然这两个国家之间有一些重要的发展。
Matthew Miller: Well, look, they're in the Cabinet room. We're in the Cabinet room, unless they've added a giant desk. Oh, sorry. Okay.
Matthew Miller: 嗯，看，他们在内阁会议室。我们也在内阁会议室，除非他们在……哦，抱歉。好的。
Matthew Miller: And Scott Bassett talking there because he has pledged to do whatever is necessary to help backstop the Argentinean peso.
Matthew Miller: 斯科特·巴塞特在那里发言，因为他已承诺采取一切必要措施来帮助支持阿根廷比索。
Matthew Miller: And it helped for a couple of days, but it isn't helping. Again, they're just bleeding dollars and they may not have much left at all.
Matthew Miller: 这在几天内有所帮助，但现在却没有了。他们又在流失美元，可能所剩无几。
Matthew Miller: So it'll be interesting. I'm actually going to talk with Hans Humes a little bit later on the 16th.
Matthew Miller: 所以这会很有趣。我实际上将在16日晚些时候与汉斯·休姆斯谈谈。
Matthew Miller: He knows this world stuff, so we absolutely can get his take.
Matthew Miller: 他了解这方面的事情，所以我们绝对可以听听他的看法。
Matthew Miller: I'll report back to you. Distressed emerging debt, by all that actually Argentina, man you are just on fire.
Matthew Miller: 我会向你汇报。阿根廷的困境新兴市场债务，你真是太棒了。
Carol Massar: All right. We're going to talk about Matt's interview with Paul Tudor Jones a little bit later on because it was a great listen.
Carol Massar: 好的。我们稍后会谈谈马特对保罗·都铎·琼斯的采访，因为它非常值得一听。
Carol Massar: I was in the car and I listened to all of it.
Carol Massar: 我当时在车里，听完了整个采访。
Carol Massar: In the meantime, as we watch and monitor for any headlines out of the meeting in the Cabinet Room.
Carol Massar: 与此同时，我们正在关注内阁会议室会议的任何头条新闻。
Carol Massar: We do want to talk about that volatile session on Wall Street.
Carol Massar: 我们确实想谈谈华尔街的动荡交易时段。
Carol Massar: Matt and I talked about it at the beginning. We've kind of been bouncing around since Friday, if you will.
Carol Massar: 马特和我在一开始就谈到了。可以说，自周五以来，我们一直在上下波动。
Carol Massar: And we did see stocks paring most of their earlier losses amid hopes of U.S. and China trade negotiations still being on the table.
Carol Massar: 我们确实看到，在美中贸易谈判仍有望进行的情况下，股市收复了大部分早盘跌幅。
Carol Massar: U.S. trade Rep Jamison Greer telling CNBC that President Trump is still set to meet his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping.
Carol Massar: 美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔告诉消费者新闻与商业频道，特朗普总统仍计划会见他的中国同行习近平主席。
Carol Massar: Greer also saying that he thinks we'll be able to work through it with China. It'll be fine.
Carol Massar: 格里尔还表示，他认为我们将能够与中国解决问题。一切都会好起来的。
Carol Massar: The president tweeted on Sunday that it'll be fine.
Carol Massar: 总统周日发推文称一切都会好起来的。
Carol Massar: Well, even so, the world is kind of moving on and we're seeing the new control towers of global commerce taking off amid these global tariffs.
Carol Massar: 然而，即便如此，世界仍在向前发展，我们看到在全球关税背景下，全球商业的新控制塔正在崛起。
Carol Massar: Let's see what Undercurrent has to say and what it means in terms of the global macro environment.
Carol Massar: 让我们看看《Undercurrent》有什么要说的，以及它对全球宏观环境意味着什么。
Carol Massar: Here's Bloomberg News global economy reporter. He joins us from our Bloomberg News Washington D.C. bureau.
Carol Massar: 接下来是彭博新闻社的全球经济记者。他将从我们的彭博新闻华盛顿特区办事处加入我们。
Carol Massar: And good to have you here.
Carol Massar: 很高兴你来到这里。
Carol Massar: First off, we do see these Wall Street swings and what's coming out between the U.S. and China.
Carol Massar: 首先，我们看到了华尔街的这些波动，以及美中之间正在发生的事情。
Carol Massar: Why is this still, just remind everybody, why is this still the most important global economic relationship in the world, or is it starting to kind of change a little bit?
Carol Massar: 为什么这仍然是世界上最重要的全球经济关系？或者它是否开始发生一些变化？请提醒大家一下。
全球贸易格局与稀土依赖
Reporter: Well, they are the two world's biggest economies and they are, of course, completely interlocked with each other.
Reporter: 嗯，它们是世界上最大的两个经济体，当然，它们彼此之间完全交织在一起。
Reporter: China is the world's biggest manufacturer, but of course, America is their biggest customer.
Reporter: 中国是世界上最大的制造业大国，但当然，美国是他们最大的客户。
Reporter: It's the biggest consumer market in the world.
Reporter: 它是世界上最大的消费市场。
Reporter: So obviously, the trade tensions between them do spill over to everybody in the middle of that in terms of supply chains.
Reporter: 所以很明显，它们之间的贸易紧张关系确实会通过供应链蔓延到所有中间方。
Reporter: And that's what we're seeing some reaction or some response out to the rest of the world.
Reporter: 这就是我们看到世界其他地区的一些反应或回应的原因。
Reporter: And even for starting point, it's like, yes, we'll always have to do business with America because of consumers so powerful, their trading partners are kicking tires.
Reporter: 即使从起点来看，就像是，是的，我们总是需要和美国做生意，因为消费者如此强大，但他们的贸易伙伴正在观望。
Reporter: They're thinking, who else can we do business with?
Reporter: 他们在想，我们还能和谁做生意？
Reporter: How else can you diversify my markets?
Reporter: 你还能如何多样化我的市场？
Reporter: China's looking around, say, buying more agricultural produce from South America, as we know.
Reporter: 中国正在四处寻找，例如，正如我们所知，从南美购买更多的农产品。
Reporter: But also its exports are going gangbusters through parts of the world other than America.
Reporter: 但它的出口也在通过除美国之外的世界其他地区突飞猛进。
Reporter: And then those other countries in the middle are saying, you know, who else can we start doing more trade deals with?
Reporter: 然后那些中间国家会说，你知道，我们还能和谁进行更多的贸易交易？
Reporter: They're accelerating trade negotiations. They're accelerating ways of doing business with each other, looking for new markets.
Reporter: 他们正在加速贸易谈判。他们正在加速彼此之间做生意的方式，寻找新市场。
Reporter: So it's very early stages. But that U.S.-China trade war is starting to poke some change in the global trade.
Reporter: 所以这还处于非常早期的阶段。但是美中贸易战正在全球贸易中引发一些变化。
Matthew Miller: You know, I mean, I think the question is the question that J.D. Vance probably doesn't have an answer to.
Matthew Miller: 你知道，我的意思是，我认为问题是J.D.万斯可能没有答案的问题。
Matthew Miller: Can China be cut off from U.S. trade longer than we can stay solvent because the rare earth minerals that they have, we cannot get in size from anywhere else and we're not going to be able to process them here or to refine them here anytime soon.
Matthew Miller: 中国能否在比我们保持偿付能力更长的时间内被切断与美国的贸易？因为他们拥有的稀土矿产，我们无法从其他任何地方大量获得，而且我们短期内也无法在这里加工或提炼它们。
Matthew Miller: So, you know, Meredith Whitney, in a note on Sunday, said:
Matthew Miller: 所以，你知道，梅雷迪思·惠特尼在周日的一份报告中说：
Matthew Miller: "Aside from the massive dependence on the U.S. industrial complex for these rare earth metals and magnets, the U.S. military is 100% dependent on them and nearly depleted of its reserves."
Matthew Miller: “除了美国工业综合体对这些稀土金属和磁铁的巨大依赖外，美国军方也100%依赖它们，并且其储备几乎耗尽。”
Matthew Miller: So, I mean, don't we need them more than they need us right now?
Matthew Miller: 所以，我的意思是，我们现在难道不是比他们更需要它们吗？
Reporter: Yeah, I think we're all at a point now where we are fully aware that if there is a vulnerability in the hawkish trade stance that the U.S. is taking on China, it's on rare earth supplies and China is the one digging them out of the ground.
Reporter: 是的，我认为我们现在都清楚地意识到，如果美国对华采取的鹰派贸易立场存在脆弱性，那就在于稀土供应，而中国是开采稀土的国家。
Reporter: China is the one that's taking on the refining risk, their environmental risk, and the costs associated with it at a scale that no other country is doing.
Reporter: 中国承担着提炼风险、环境风险以及与之相关的成本，其规模是其他任何国家都无法比拟的。
Reporter: And that's why America and everybody else is so reliant on China and getting those minerals out here.
Reporter: 这就是为什么美国和其他所有国家都如此依赖中国来获取这些矿产。
Reporter: And that's why China, of course, is well aware of its leverage.
Reporter: 当然，这就是为什么中国非常清楚自己的影响力。
Reporter: It floated those export controls that it did last week or the week before.
Reporter: 它在上周或前一周提出了那些出口管制措施。
Reporter: And of course, it sent shockwaves not just through the U.S., but the rest of the world, too.
Reporter: 当然，这不仅在美国，也在世界其他地区引起了震动。
Reporter: And China is making clear that it's in control of these.
Reporter: 中国正在明确表示它掌控着这些。
Reporter: Now, this is a policy error, though.
Reporter: 不过，这是一个政策错误。
Reporter: If you go back maybe 15 years ago, there was a big discussion around rare earth supply.
Reporter: 如果你回到大约15年前，当时围绕稀土供应有过一场大讨论。
Reporter: At that time, there were other options on the table. It's not just China that has these minerals.
Reporter: 那时候，还有其他选择。并非只有中国拥有这些矿产。
Reporter: Other countries could have put money into the ground and put the money into the resources and the facilities needed to extract these.
Reporter: 其他国家本可以投入资金开采，并投入资源和设施来提取这些矿产。
Reporter: Or some companies in the U.S. that are talking about are trying to get off the ground at the moment in doing this.
Reporter: 或者美国的一些公司正在讨论并试图目前启动这项工作。
Reporter: But the point is, we're at a stage where China has a grip and a lock on the system to the point where everybody else is years behind.
Reporter: 但关键是，我们现在处于中国掌控并锁定整个系统的阶段，以至于其他所有国家都落后多年。
Reporter: It will take a long time, not just getting them out of the ground.
Reporter: 这将需要很长时间，我的意思是不只是将它们从地下开采出来。
Matthew Miller: I mean, I talked to industrial CEOs who do business globally and have told me, look, we've seen the refining process in China and it is horrific.
Matthew Miller: 我的意思是，我与在全球开展业务的工业界首席执行官们交流过，他们告诉我，你看，我们看到了中国的提炼过程，那简直是骇人听闻。
Matthew Miller: It is the kind of environmental risk that American voters just would not be willing to take.
Matthew Miller: 这是美国选民根本不愿意承担的那种环境风险。
Matthew Miller: So no one else can refine them at these levels, at least with today's methods, without sacrificing a portion of humanity.
Matthew Miller: 所以，至少以今天的方法，没有其他国家能够以这种水平提炼它们，而不牺牲一部分人类。
Matthew Miller: So we're not going to do that, are we?
Matthew Miller: 所以我们不会那样做，对吗？
Reporter: Well, that's right. Environmental risk is a big part of the equation now.
Reporter: 嗯，没错。环境风险现在是考量中的重要一部分。
Reporter: But there are some companies, by the way, including some in the U.S., who are looking for cleaner ways to do this.
Reporter: 顺便说一下，有一些公司，包括美国的一些公司，正在寻找更清洁的方法来做这件事。
Reporter: So but obviously nothing like on the scale that China currently offers.
Reporter: 但显然，目前还没有任何规模能与中国提供的相媲美。
Reporter: But other countries as well are coming to the table.
Reporter: 但其他国家也正在加入进来。
Reporter: Pakistan, for example, is floating itself as a potential partner for these minerals for the U.S., and they can be sourced from all other countries too.
Reporter: 例如，巴基斯坦正将自己定位为美国这些矿产的潜在合作伙伴，而且这些矿产也可以从所有其他国家采购。
Reporter: That's why Argentina is in the mix at the moment when we talk about the support that the U.S. Treasury is offering Argentina, one of the reasons is because of the minerals Argentina has.
Reporter: 这就是为什么阿根廷目前也参与其中，当我们谈论美国财政部向阿根廷提供的支持时，其中一个原因就是因为阿根廷拥有的矿产资源。
Reporter: So, but yes, the point is that no one's doing it on the scale that China is right now.
Reporter: 所以，是的，关键是目前没有其他国家能像中国那样大规模地进行。
Reporter: And until that changes, China has leverage over the rest of the global trading system.
Reporter: 在这种情况改变之前，中国在全球贸易体系中拥有影响力。
国际贸易版图重绘与赢家输家
Carol Massar: I want to go into your story that looks at global trade flows and you look at what shipping companies are seeing and some of the changes.
Carol Massar: 我想深入探讨你的报道，它审视了全球贸易流向，以及航运公司所看到的一些变化。
Carol Massar: But there's a quote in the story.
Carol Massar: 但报道中有一句话。
Carol Massar: An associate professor of economics at the University of California at Davis in a seminar of ISCA, said this individual saying it's very clear that we are redrawing the map of international trade.
Carol Massar: 加州大学戴维斯分校的一位经济学副教授在ISCA的一次研讨会上说，这个人表示，我们正在重新绘制国际贸易版图，这非常清楚。
Carol Massar: We're going to see a lot more bilateral trade agreements between countries and subgroups of countries.
Carol Massar: 我们将看到国家之间以及国家次级群体之间有更多的双边贸易协定。
Carol Massar: She predicts this. What does that mean for economic growth, for individual countries and for the global economy overall?
Carol Massar: 她预测了这一点。这对经济增长、对个别国家以及对全球经济整体意味着什么？
Carol Massar: Do we know anything? And is it good? Is it bad?
Carol Massar: 我们知道些什么吗？这是好是坏？
Reporter: Well, it's early stages, but we're seeing signs now that countries are looking at accelerating trade negotiations with each other and signing deals with each other.
Reporter: 嗯，这还处于早期阶段，但我们现在看到一些迹象表明各国正在考虑加速彼此之间的贸易谈判并签署协议。
Reporter: And the European Union is one example.
Reporter: 欧盟就是一个例子。
Reporter: They finally got that deal signed with Indonesia.
Reporter: 他们终于和印度尼西亚签署了协议。
Reporter: They are getting that big trade negotiation with South American Mercosur (南方共同市场: 南美洲的一个区域经济一体化组织) off the ground, trying to get that ratified.
Reporter: 他们正在推动与南美南方共同市场的大型贸易谈判，并试图使其获得批准。
Reporter: Other countries are also looking at doing business more with each other, like New Zealand and Switzerland and the UAE are among a group who have gotten together.
Reporter: 其他国家也正在寻求更多地彼此合作，比如新西兰、瑞士和阿联酋就是其中一个已联合起来的群体。
Reporter: And it's a kind of a loose trading agreement that they've pulled together over recent months.
Reporter: 这是一个他们在最近几个月里达成的一种松散的贸易协议。
Reporter: And the point of all of this is, as I said at the start.
Reporter: 所有这一切的重点是，正如我一开始所说的。
Reporter: Nobody's suggesting the U.S. is not the world's biggest consumer market and that they don't want to do business here.
Reporter: 没有人会说美国不是世界上最大的消费市场，或者他们不想在这里做生意。
Reporter: That's not the point.
Reporter: 那不是重点。
Reporter: But they're seeing the tariffs going up at the fastest pace since World War Two.
Reporter: 但他们看到关税正以二战以来最快的速度上涨。
Reporter: It's more complicated, more costly for some of the businesses who want to do trade with us.
Reporter: 对于一些想与我们进行贸易的企业来说，这变得更加复杂，成本也更高。
Reporter: And they're asking what else can you do to diversify and mix up their supply lines under their markets?
Reporter: 他们正在问，还能做些什么来多样化和混合他们市场下的供应链？
Reporter: And we're seeing it in Peruvian fruit farmers.
Reporter: 我们在秘鲁果农身上看到了这一点。
Reporter: They're looking for new and alternative markets in Lesotho.
Reporter: 他们正在莱索托寻找新的替代市场。
Reporter: They're looking for alternative textile markets, maybe in Europe and then in Asia.
Reporter: 他们正在寻找替代的纺织品市场，可能在欧洲，然后是亚洲。
Reporter: So, as I say, the terrible one that's going up on the U.S. side, it's not about countries not wanting to do business here, but they are certainly kicking tires on where else they can diversify.
Reporter: 所以，正如我所说，美国方面正在上涨的糟糕关税，并不是说各国不想在这里做生意，但他们肯定在考察其他可以多样化的地方。
Reporter: And that's what these trade negotiations are getting. A shot in the arm was wanted.
Reporter: 这正是这些贸易谈判所需要的强心剂。
Reporter: One of the professors, a quote in the article, said to us.
Reporter: 文章中引用的一位教授告诉我们。
Carol Massar: All right. We're talking with a global economy reporter at Bloomberg News in our D.C. bureau.
Carol Massar: 好的。我们正在与彭博新闻社华盛顿特区办事处的全球经济记者进行交流。
Carol Massar: At the same time, we are monitoring the White House, the Cabinet Room.
Carol Massar: 与此同时，我们正在监测白宫内阁会议室。
Carol Massar: President Trump is there with President Milei of Argentina.
Carol Massar: 特朗普总统与阿根廷总统米莱在那里。
Carol Massar: They are having a bilateral lunch and obviously meeting.
Carol Massar: 他们正在举行双边午餐会和会议。
Carol Massar: We're monitoring any headlines that come out of that meeting.
Carol Massar: 我们正在监测那次会议的任何头条新闻。
Carol Massar: In the meantime, you know, and you talk about in this story these bilateral relationships, or at least folks that you talk to are talking about a lot more bilateral trade agreements.
Carol Massar: 与此同时，你知道，你在这篇报道中谈到了这些双边关系，或者至少你采访的人都在谈论更多的双边贸易协定。
Carol Massar: Who wins?
Carol Massar: 谁会赢？
Carol Massar: Those are big countries, small countries, middle-sized countries.
Carol Massar: 是大国、小国还是中等国家？
Carol Massar: Is there clear winners and losers on that metric?
Carol Massar: 在这个衡量标准上，是否有明确的赢家和输家？
Reporter: Well, probably the biggest countries will be the ones who come out of this in better order, because, you know, the system up until now, whether one agrees with it or not.
Reporter: 嗯，可能最大的国家会从中受益更多，因为你知道，直到现在，无论人们是否同意，
Reporter: But the broad system up until a few years ago had been rules of the road set by the World Trade Organization (WTO: 世界贸易组织，旨在促进全球自由贸易的国际组织)。
Reporter: 但直到几年前，整个体系的规则都是由世界贸易组织设定的。
Reporter: This is where countries, big and small, could come together and have their disagreements and argue out their case for whatever their grievance was in the trade world.
Reporter: 在这个体系中，大大小小的国家都可以聚集在一起，表达分歧，并为他们在贸易世界中的任何不满进行辩论。
Reporter: But, you know, we've moved past that now. We're kind of moving this bilateral sort of approach to doing trade deals.
Reporter: 但是，你知道，我们现在已经超越了那个阶段。我们正在转向这种双边贸易协议的方式。
Reporter: So when you have a big country, they are able to set the terms on the table.
Reporter: 所以当有一个大国时，他们能够设定谈判条款。
Reporter: And the smaller country, of course, has to work around that.
Reporter: 而小国当然必须围绕这些条款进行。
Reporter: And that's where we are.
Reporter: 这就是我们目前的状况。
Reporter: It's not just the U.S., of course, and China is the other big player in the global trading system.
Reporter: 当然，不仅仅是美国，中国是全球贸易体系中的另一个大玩家。
Reporter: They, as we just spoke about, hold the cards in so many areas.
Reporter: 正如我们刚才所说，他们在许多领域掌握着主动权。
Reporter: Now when it comes to not just very markets, but they're the world's factory.
Reporter: 现在，不仅是市场，他们还是世界的工厂。
Reporter: So they also will set terms and countries are worried about China's volume of exports and trying to compete against China to give them the scale and competitiveness in which they can produce products versus other countries.
Reporter: 所以他们也会设定条款，各国担心中国的出口量，并试图与中国竞争，以获得能与中国抗衡的产品生产规模和竞争力。
Reporter: So the big picture is better for bigger countries, tougher for first of all, the countries are an undercurrent.
Reporter: 所以整体来看，对大国更有利，对小国则更艰难，首先，这些国家都处于暗流涌动中。
Carol Massar: Thank you so much on today's news and his story, global economy reporter at Bloomberg News.
Carol Massar: 非常感谢你今天带来的新闻和报道，彭博新闻社的全球经济记者。
Carol Massar: You can read the entirety of it. It's on the Bloomberg and at bloomberg.com.
Carol Massar: 你们可以阅读完整的报道。它在彭博终端和bloomberg.com上。
Carol Massar: And talking about important relationships, U.S. and China certainly.
Carol Massar: 谈到重要的关系，美国和中国当然是。
Carol Massar: But right now, what is top of mind for President Trump at the White House in the Cabinet Room is a relationship with Argentina.
Carol Massar: 但现在，在白宫内阁会议室里，特朗普总统最关心的是与阿根廷的关系。
Carol Massar: And he's there with President Milei. Let's listen in.
Carol Massar: 他和米莱总统在那里。让我们听听。
Carol Massar: All right. You are listening to President Trump.
Carol Massar: 好的。你们正在收听特朗普总统。
Carol Massar: He's live there at the White House in the Cabinet Room, of course, with Argentinian President Milei.
Carol Massar: 他正在白宫内阁会议室进行直播，当然，与阿根廷总统米莱在一起。
Carol Massar: An array of topics coming up in terms of the relationship between the two countries.
Carol Massar: 两国关系方面将讨论一系列话题。
Carol Massar: The president being asked if there was a free trade agreement, possibly with Argentina.
Carol Massar: 总统被问及是否可能与阿根廷达成自由贸易协定。
Carol Massar: He says it's possible.
Carol Massar: 他说有可能。
Carol Massar: He also, Matt, was asked about the U.S. swap that is underway between the two nations involving currencies, the two currencies of the two nations not predicated on Argentina ending the China swap, which has been there to help up Argentine reserves.
Carol Massar: 马特，他还被问及两国之间正在进行的货币互换，即两国货币互换，这并非以阿根廷终止中国互换为前提，而中国互换一直用于帮助增加阿根廷储备。
Carol Massar: So a little bit more on that relationship. Sounds like still some questions to come.
Carol Massar: 所以关于这种关系还有更多内容，听起来似乎还有一些问题待解决。
Matthew Miller: Yeah, he's right now he's talking about his relationship with President Xi.
Matthew Miller: 是的，他现在正在谈论他与习近平主席的关系。
Matthew Miller: And I'll just point out that is what shifts these markets.
Matthew Miller: 我要指出的是，正是这一点影响着这些市场。
Matthew Miller: So when he makes a statement that's very negative and aggressive about President Xi or China, then you get a sell-off the likes of which we saw on Friday, 2.7%, 182 points off the S&P.
Matthew Miller: 所以当他对习近平主席或中国发表非常负面和激进的言论时，你就会看到像周五那样的抛售，标普指数下跌2.7%，即182点。
Matthew Miller: When he makes a statement that's more positive like he did on Sunday.
Matthew Miller: 当他发表更积极的言论时，就像他周日做的那样。
Matthew Miller: Yeah, China's going to be fine. He just said again, I think the relationship with China will be fine.
Matthew Miller: 是的，中国会好起来的。他刚才又说，我认为与中国的关系会好起来的。
Matthew Miller: Then you have a market rally, then you have investors coming in to buy the dip.
Matthew Miller: 然后市场就会反弹，投资者就会进场逢低买入。
Matthew Miller: Today, we saw a turnaround, as you know, because Jamison Greer on CNBC said that the two are still going to meet.
Matthew Miller: 今天，正如你所知，我们看到了转机，因为杰米森·格里尔在消费者新闻与商业频道表示，两国领导人仍将举行会晤。
Matthew Miller: So if he says anything about President Xi right now, that could turn the market.
Matthew Miller: 所以如果他现在对习近平主席说些什么，那可能会改变市场走向。
Carol Massar: Yes. I'll continue to monitor the headlines.
Carol Massar: 是的。我将继续关注头条新闻。
银行股表现与戴蒙的“蟑螂”警告
Carol Massar: All right. Sounds good. And we do have most names in the S&P 500, over 400 higher today, folks.
Carol Massar: 好的。听起来不错。各位，S&P 500 的大多数股票，今天有超过400只上涨。
Carol Massar: Here's where the S&P is. It's up 18 points. So at its highs of this session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (道琼斯工业平均指数) a gain of 392 points, up 0.8%.
Carol Massar: 标普指数正在上涨18点。所以，在今日交易时段的高点，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨392点，涨幅为0.8%。
Carol Massar: Nasdaq 100 (纳斯达克100指数) still under a little bit of pressure, but it's had quite a run over the last few months, down just about 20 points.
Carol Massar: 纳斯达克100指数仍面临一点压力，但在过去几个月里表现相当不错，仅下跌约20点。
Carol Massar: Call it pretty much unchanged on the day.
Carol Massar: 可以说当天几乎没有变化。
Carol Massar: One group that has done really well today as a whole, we're talking about big banks, are banks overall.
Carol Massar: 今天整体表现非常好的一个板块，我们谈论的是大型银行，也就是整体银行板块。
Carol Massar: The KBW Bank index (KBW银行指数: 衡量美国主要银行股表现的行业指数) folks, up 2.3%.
Carol Massar: 各位，KBW银行指数上涨2.3%。
Carol Massar: 22 of the 24 names are higher in today's session.
Carol Massar: 在今天的交易中，24只股票中有22只上涨。
Carol Massar: We've had the big ones lower.
Carol Massar: 我们看到大型银行下跌。
Carol Massar: Two of the big ones are lower. Two of the biggest names on the entire index are lower right now.
Carol Massar: 两家大型银行下跌。目前，整个指数中最大的两只股票下跌。
Carol Massar: What's interesting is JPMorgan, Goldman, Wells, Citi, all reporting, JPMorgan and Goldman selling off, right?
Carol Massar: 有趣的是，摩根大通、高盛、富国银行、花旗银行都公布了财报，摩根大通和高盛都在抛售，对吗？
Matthew Miller: Yeah, those are the two names you're talking about.
Matthew Miller: 是的，你说的就是那两家公司。
Matthew Miller: And Wells and Citi, Matt, are, well, again, I mean, and you get headlines like JPMorgan beats expectations on every level.
Matthew Miller: 富国银行和花旗银行，马特，表现得很好，我的意思是，你又看到了诸如摩根大通在各个层面都超出预期之类的头条新闻。
Matthew Miller: Goldman Sachs knocks the cover off the ball.
Matthew Miller: 高盛表现出色。
Matthew Miller: Analysts can't believe how well they did.
Matthew Miller: 分析师们不敢相信他们做得有多好。
Matthew Miller: And yet the stocks sell off.
Matthew Miller: 然而股票却被抛售。
Matthew Miller: But remember, something like JPMorgan has had quite a run this year.
Matthew Miller: 但请记住，像摩根大通这样的公司今年表现相当不错。
Matthew Miller: So, you know, expectations and reality perhaps.
Matthew Miller: 所以，你知道，也许是期望与现实的差距。
Carol Massar: Let's see what our experts have to say.
Carol Massar: 让我们听听我们的专家怎么说。
Carol Massar: Bloomberg News chief Wall Street correspondent Sree Natarajan is here in studio along with Bloomberg Intelligence, senior analyst for global investment banks and asset managers Alison Williams.
Carol Massar: 彭博新闻社华尔街首席记者斯里·纳塔拉扬和彭博情报全球投资银行及资产管理公司高级分析师艾莉森·威廉姆斯都在演播室。
Carol Massar: As I said, both in studio.
Carol Massar: 如我所说，两位都在演播室。
Carol Massar: All right, guys, let's start with JPMorgan, because I feel like that's the bank that we want to always hear from.
Carol Massar: 好的，各位，让我们从摩根大通开始，因为我觉得那是我们一直想听到的银行。
Carol Massar: Alison, let me start with you.
Carol Massar: 艾莉森，我先问你。
Carol Massar: What do we need to know about the numbers in JPMorgan's business?
Carol Massar: 关于摩根大通的业务数据，我们需要了解什么？
Carol Massar: Because as Matt said, sometimes the headlines look darn good and the quarter was darn good.
Carol Massar: 因为正如马特所说，有时头条新闻看起来非常好，而且这个季度也确实非常好。
Carol Massar: It's just that I think there are some bullish investors out there that wanted more.
Carol Massar: 只是我认为有些看涨的投资者想要更多。
Alison Williams: And if you did, you know, so on today they're underperforming.
Alison Williams: 如果是这样，你知道，今天他们表现不佳。
Alison Williams: But if you look at year to date, if you look at their valuation, if you look at their year returns, I'm sorry, you look at their profitability, are very, very good, executing well. I think that, you know, maybe some people just wanted some more there.
Alison Williams: 但如果你看年初至今的表现，如果你看他们的估值，如果你看他们的年度回报，抱歉，如果你看他们的盈利能力，都非常非常好，执行得很好。我认为，你知道，可能有些人只是想要更多。
Alison Williams: Goldman Sachs also strong quarter, they did miss on equities trading.
Alison Williams: 高盛也表现强劲，只是股票交易方面未能达到预期。
Alison Williams: So, you know, these numbers are hard to predict.
Alison Williams: 所以，你知道，这些数字很难预测。
Alison Williams: But I think, you know, most people, including myself, if you had seen that upside, would give you further confidence in the momentum going into the next quarter.
Alison Williams: 但我认为，你知道，大多数人，包括我自己，如果你看到了那种上涨，会让你对进入下一季度的势头更有信心。
Alison Williams: But the M&A advisory business (并购咨询业务: 指为企业提供兼并与收购交易策略、估值、谈判和执行等服务的业务), huge outperformance there, we think they probably outperformed most on the quarter.
Alison Williams: 但并购咨询业务表现非常出色，我们认为他们在该季度可能超越了大多数同行。
Alison Williams: They're the lead in that revenue.
Alison Williams: 他们在该收入领域处于领先地位。
Alison Williams: They announced this AI (Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能，模拟和执行人类智能任务的技术) program.
Alison Williams: 他们公布了这个人工智能项目。
Alison Williams: You know, I'm going to have to wait till January for details, but that signals that efficiency is going to get better.
Alison Williams: 你知道，我得等到一月份才能看到细节，但这预示着效率将会提高。
Alison Williams: You know, contrast that, two companies that are really performing very well to two companies that are, I think, have a lot of runway ahead of them, and that's Wells Fargo and Citigroup.
Alison Williams: 你知道，对比一下，两家表现非常好的公司，我认为还有很大发展空间的另外两家公司，那就是富国银行和花旗集团。
Carol Massar: Can I just ask before we get to Sree, because I've already asked him like ten times today, why do the analysts consistently underestimate what these banks are doing?
Carol Massar: 在我们谈到斯里之前，我能问一下吗？因为我今天已经问他十次了，为什么分析师们总是低估这些银行的表现？
Carol Massar: And it can't just be to get on the good side of management. Right?
Carol Massar: 而且这不可能只是为了讨好管理层，对吧？
Carol Massar: When I saw this morning before any earnings came out, I saw stories about which bank was going to beat estimates.
Carol Massar: 今天早上在任何财报出来之前，我看到了关于哪家银行将超出预期的报道。
Carol Massar: So when I see bank expected to top estimates, I wonder why analysts don't add more to the estimates.
Carol Massar: 所以当我看到银行有望超出预期时，我想知道为什么分析师们不提高预期。
Carol Massar: What's why? What is this game all about?
Carol Massar: 为什么？这到底是怎么回事？
Alison Williams: Well, first of all, trading and when it's capital markets (资本市场: 长期资金借贷的市场，包括股票市场和债券市场) revenue, that really is the source of the upside.
Alison Williams: 嗯，首先，交易和资本市场收入确实是上涨的来源。
Alison Williams: That is very tough.
Alison Williams: 这非常困难。
Alison Williams: And banks are not going to guide you. Right.
Alison Williams: 而且银行不会给你指导。对吧。
Alison Williams: You know, they don't really have an incentive to shake your hand, as the last couple of days of the quarter could be horrible or you don't know what's going to happen.
Alison Williams: 你知道，他们真的没有动力去和你握手，因为季度的最后几天可能会很糟糕，或者你不知道会发生什么。
Alison Williams: And so I think banks are going to tend to guide conservatively.
Alison Williams: 所以我认为银行会倾向于保守地给出指引。
Alison Williams: Analysts are going to tend to be conservative.
Alison Williams: 分析师也会倾向于保守。
Alison Williams: Right. Because that is not something that people bake into the run rate.
Alison Williams: 没错。因为那不是人们会纳入常规运行率的东西。
Alison Williams: So as I said, you know, we're positive about the momentum in trading.
Alison Williams: 所以正如我所说，你知道，我们对交易势头持积极态度。
Alison Williams: Yeah, the asset levels, etc.
Alison Williams: 是的，资产水平等等。
Alison Williams: But I think if you're forming estimates, you are going to tend to be conservative and that's why you can get upside, especially if the strength comes at the end of the quarter.
Alison Williams: 但我认为，如果你在制定预测，你会倾向于保守，这就是为什么你可以获得上涨，特别是如果强势出现在季度末。
Alison Williams: It's just hard for the instruments to catch up.
Alison Williams: 只是工具很难跟上。
Carol Massar: Yeah, totally get it.
Carol Massar: 是的，完全明白了。
Carol Massar: All right. So we care about JPMorgan's results.
Carol Massar: 好的。所以我们关心摩根大通的业绩。
Carol Massar: We also obsess over everything that Jamie Dimon has to say.
Carol Massar: 我们也痴迷于杰米·戴蒙所说的一切。
Carol Massar: He never disappoints, which is something that is highly quotable in this case.
Carol Massar: 在这种情况下，他从不令人失望，他的话非常值得引用。
Carol Massar: It was when he was talking about a cockroach. Check it out.
Carol Massar: 那是他谈论蟑螂的时候。听一下。
Jamie Dimon (via recording): And you should assume that if something happens, you should scour all processes, all procedures, all underwriting, all everything.
Jamie Dimon (通过录音): 你应该假设，一旦发生什么事情，就彻底检查所有流程、所有程序、所有承销以及所有一切。
Jamie Dimon (via recording): And, you know, we think we're okay and all this stuff.
Jamie Dimon (通过录音): 而且，你知道，我们认为我们没问题，所有这些都很好。
Jamie Dimon (via recording): But my antenna goes up when things like that happen.
Jamie Dimon (通过录音): 但当发生那样的事情时，我的警觉性就会提高。
Jamie Dimon (via recording): I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, you're probably seeing more. And so everyone should be forewarned in this one.
Jamie Dimon (通过录音): 我可能不应该这么说，但当你看到一只蟑螂时，你可能会看到更多。所以我们每个人都应该对此有所警惕。
Carol Massar: All right. That, of course, was Jamie Dimon earlier today on JPMorgan's early earnings call.
Carol Massar: 好的。当然，那是杰米·戴蒙今天早些时候在摩根大通的早期财报电话会议上说的。
Carol Massar: Come on in on this because you're reporting on the quarter.
Carol Massar: 请谈谈这个，因为你正在报道这个季度的情况。
Carol Massar: And, you know, most importantly, what Jamie Dimon has to say about the macro.
Carol Massar: 而且，你知道，最重要的是杰米·戴蒙对宏观经济的看法。
Sree Natarajan: So, again, Jamie Dimon has been running the biggest U.S. bank, which has a bigger market cap today than its three closest rivals combined.
Sree Natarajan: 所以，再说一次，杰米·戴蒙一直在经营美国最大的银行，这家银行今天的市值比其三个最接近的竞争对手加起来还要大。
Sree Natarajan: He's been doing that for nearly 20 years and he didn't get there.
Sree Natarajan: 他这样做已经将近20年了，他能达到今天的地位。
Sree Natarajan: And he didn't stay there just by sitting on his laurels.
Sree Natarajan: 他并没有仅仅因为安于现状而留在那里。
Sree Natarajan: He's paid to look around the corners and he is right to point out that the underlying numbers might be great.
Sree Natarajan: 他的职责是预见潜在风险，他指出，尽管基础数据可能很好。
Sree Natarajan: They might be marching toward another record revenue here.
Sree Natarajan: 他们可能正在迈向另一个创纪录的收入年度。
Sree Natarajan: But when you see some of these problems, you initially try and dismiss some of them as idiosyncratic.
Sree Natarajan: 但当你看到其中一些问题时，你最初会试图将其中一些视为特异性问题。
Sree Natarajan: But if enough of them start popping up, that becomes a concern.
Sree Natarajan: 但如果足够多的问题开始出现，那就会成为一个担忧。
Sree Natarajan: So that's why when Dimon says my antenna goes up when things like that happen, we pay attention, especially because in the last few days we've been seeing some action in certain corners of the credit market where it does appear that there is some fear seeping into the markets.
Sree Natarajan: 所以这就是为什么当戴蒙说“我的警觉性提高了”时，当发生那样的事情时，我们就会注意，特别是因为在过去几天里，我们看到信贷市场的某些角落出现了一些动向，似乎有一些恐惧正在渗透到市场中。
Sree Natarajan: And Dimon specifically flicked at the publicly traded BDCs (Business Development Companies: 商业发展公司，一种投资于中小型私营公司的封闭式基金，主要投资于中小型企业和陷入困境的公司) that hold a lot of these private credit investments.
Sree Natarajan: 戴蒙特别提到了那些持有大量私人信贷投资的公开交易商业发展公司。
Sree Natarajan: And if you look at the discount, the net asset value (NAV - Net Asset Value: 资产净值，基金或公司资产减去负债后的价值) that they're going at it, it makes you worry about what's happening with some of the other non-traded vehicles.
Sree Natarajan: 如果你看看他们以折扣价交易的资产净值，这会让你担心其他非交易型工具的情况。
Sree Natarajan: Will there be mass redemptions and will there be domino effects off of that?
Sree Natarajan: 会不会出现大规模赎回，并由此产生多米诺骨牌效应？
Sree Natarajan: And Dimon also points out that he feels like they're feeling very good about everything, that if you look at their numbers, you will not see any cause for stress, dismay, concern.
Sree Natarajan: 戴蒙还指出，他觉得他们对一切都感觉非常好，如果你看他们的数据，你不会看到任何压力、沮丧或担忧的原因。
Sree Natarajan: But Dimon is right in saying eventually the cycle turns.
Sree Natarajan: 但戴蒙说周期最终会转变是正确的。
Sree Natarajan: And when it does, he thinks that I suspect when there's a downturn, his words, you will see higher than normal downturn type of credit losses in certain categories.
Sree Natarajan: 当这种情况发生时，他认为，我怀疑当经济下行时，用他的话说，你会在某些类别中看到高于正常下行期的信贷损失。
Sree Natarajan: And that's an important one to keep in mind, because what he's saying is the recovery rates might not be as great as he imagined and that will impact the firms and that will impact the investors in those firms.
Sree Natarajan: 这一点很重要，因为他所说的是，回收率可能不如他想象的那么高，这将影响公司，也将影响这些公司的投资者。
富国银行与花旗集团的转型之路
Carol Massar: I want to ask about Wells Fargo.
Carol Massar: 我想问问富国银行。
Carol Massar: I'm so thankful that Bloomberg Radio has such a great program in the mornings.
Carol Massar: 我非常感谢彭博电台早上有这么好的节目。
Carol Massar: Nathan Hager and Karen Moskow, we're talking to you, Alison, before I even got to work yet, and I get here pretty early and you were saying this is really going to be the news of the day and it has been the outperformer of the day because, can I just say, finally.
Carol Massar: 内森·海格和凯伦·莫斯科，艾莉森，在我还没上班的时候，我们就和你聊过了，我来得很早，你说这将是今天的新闻，而且它一直是今天表现最好的，因为我能说终于吗？
Alison Williams: Well, because long in coming.
Alison Williams: 嗯，因为期待已久。
Carol Massar: So what's the story with Wells Fargo?
Carol Massar: 那么富国银行的情况如何？
Alison Williams: They raised their return on tangible equity (ROTE - Return on Tangible Equity: 有形股本回报率，衡量银行盈利能力的指标，计算方式为净收入除以有形普通股本).
Alison Williams: 他们提高了有形股本回报率。
Alison Williams: So the key metric for banks, return on tangible common equity valuations, you know, price to book (市净率: 衡量公司股价与其每股账面价值之比的指标) is how a lot of investors value these banks.
Alison Williams: 所以，银行的关键衡量指标——有形普通股本回报率，你知道，市净率是很多投资者评估这些银行的方式。
Alison Williams: It's based on that return on capital.
Alison Williams: 这基于资本回报率。
Alison Williams: And, you know, Charlie Scharf said years ago, we're going to put 15% out there as a target.
Alison Williams: 而且，你知道，查理·沙尔夫几年前说过，我们将把15%作为一个目标。
Alison Williams: We'll revisit it at some point.
Alison Williams: 我们会在某个时候重新审视它。
Alison Williams: They're running at 15% year to date.
Alison Williams: 他们年初至今的运行率为15%。
Alison Williams: They upped that target to 17% to 18%.
Alison Williams: 他们将目标提高到17%到18%。
Alison Williams: The asset cap (资产上限: 监管机构对银行资产规模的限制，通常用于控制风险) is lifted.
Alison Williams: 资产上限已解除。
Alison Williams: They showed a lot of progress that they've made, but they also showed some opportunity.
Alison Williams: 他们展示了已经取得的许多进展，但也展示了一些机会。
Alison Williams: And here's what I think is interesting.
Alison Williams: 我认为有趣的是。
Alison Williams: So one of the biggest areas of opportunity is the consumer unit.
Alison Williams: 所以最大的机会领域之一是消费业务部门。
Alison Williams: When we had Laurie Beer from JPMorgan, the CEO of JPMorgan, talk about where she sees big opportunity.
Alison Williams: 当我们请到摩根大通的首席执行官劳里·比尔谈论她看到巨大机会的地方时。
Alison Williams: She actually talked about this at JPMorgan's Investor Day, also the consumer unit, also a lot of what she talked about in terms of how technology was going to aid the bank was in that it was productivity in the consumer unit.
Alison Williams: 她实际上在摩根大通的投资者日活动中谈到了这一点，也是消费业务部门，她谈论的很多关于技术将如何帮助银行的内容，都集中在提高消费业务部门的生产力上。
Alison Williams: So we're hearing that from Wells Fargo.
Alison Williams: 所以我们从富国银行听到了这一点。
Alison Williams: So that really gives me confidence that this is a number that they can chew to Citigroup, by the way, I think, you know, they're also kind of showing the path, right?
Alison Williams: 所以这真的让我相信，这是一个他们能够实现的目标。顺便说一句，花旗集团，我认为，你知道，他们也正在展示这条道路，对吗？
Alison Williams: So Citigroup talking about the fact that they are two thirds of the way there with their transformation.
Alison Williams: 所以花旗集团正在谈论他们已经完成了转型过程的三分之二。
Alison Williams: And we have Banamex coming. You know, it's pushed out a little bit.
Alison Williams: 接下来是Banamex。你知道，它被稍微推迟了。
Alison Williams: But I think showing you the path that, you know, could that be Citigroup again, talk about an even longer time.
Alison Williams: 但我认为，这展示了一条道路，你知道，花旗集团能否再次实现？我们谈论的是一个更长的时间。
Alison Williams: But could Jane Frazier finally be the one to get it done?
Alison Williams: 但简·弗雷泽最终能否完成这项任务？
Alison Williams: And I will point out, with Wells Fargo now up, what, 8.2% for the day, it's their best day since election night, since Trump came back to power.
Alison Williams: 我要指出，富国银行今天上涨了8.2%，这是自选举夜以来，自特朗普重新掌权以来表现最好的一天。
Alison Williams: This could be Wells Fargo's best day since then.
Alison Williams: 这可能是富国银行自那时以来表现最好的一天。
Alison Williams: So that is the power of putting a target out there.
Alison Williams: 这就是设定目标的力量。
Alison Williams: And I point that out again only because in a couple of weeks you will have Bank of America with their Investor Day, their first Investor Day in 15 years.
Alison Williams: 我再次指出这一点，只是因为几周后美国银行将举行投资者日，这是他们15年来的首次投资者日。
Alison Williams: It has also been the worst performing big bank's stock this year, up only, what, 14%?
Alison Williams: 它也是今年表现最差的大型银行股票，仅上涨了14%？
Alison Williams: 14 and change.
Alison Williams: 14%多一点。
Alison Williams: It is important for Bank of America to approach that Investor Day with a mindset of providing targets, aspirational targets for the market instead of trying to explain to investors and analysts what it is that they do, because I think investors will tell you they have a good understanding.
Alison Williams: 对于美国银行来说，重要的是以提供目标、为市场设定雄心勃勃的目标的心态来对待投资者日，而不是试图向投资者和分析师解释他们在做什么，因为我认为投资者会告诉你他们已经很了解了。
Alison Williams: What they want is better targets and what they want is them achieving those targets.
Alison Williams: 他们想要的是更好的目标，以及他们实现这些目标。
Alison Williams: Otherwise the stock will continue to languish.
Alison Williams: 否则股票将继续表现不佳。
地缘政治与估值方法
Carol Massar: All right. I do want to mention a headline crossing.
Carol Massar: 好的。我想提一个最新头条。
Carol Massar: We are continuing to monitor President Trump there at the White House.
Carol Massar: 我们正在继续监测白宫的特朗普总统。
Carol Massar: He is talking also about Russia and President Putin saying President Putin does not want to end the war.
Carol Massar: 他还在谈论俄罗斯和普京总统，称普京总统不想结束战争。
Carol Massar: And then going on to say that the Russian economy is going to collapse.
Carol Massar: 然后接着说俄罗斯经济将会崩溃。
Carol Massar: So that is certainly another one of the big geopolitical events (地缘政治事件: 涉及地理和政治因素的国际事件，对全球稳定和经济产生影响) and actions that we've been keeping and something that the president has been trying to bring an end to and talked about that on the campaign trail.
Carol Massar: 所以这无疑是我们一直关注的另一个重大地缘政治事件和行动，也是总统一直试图结束并在竞选活动中谈论的事情。
Carol Massar: But again, President Putin doesn't want to end the war.
Carol Massar: 但再次强调，普京总统不想结束战争。
Carol Massar: That is the view from President Trump at the White House.
Carol Massar: 这是特朗普总统在白宫的看法。
Carol Massar: I know you had one last question.
Carol Massar: 我知道你还有最后一个问题。
Matthew Miller: Yeah, I want to ask Alison about the best way to value these companies.
Matthew Miller: 是的，我想问艾莉森关于评估这些公司的最佳方式。
Matthew Miller: I was talking with Sree about this on Bloomberg TV earlier, and David George from Baird also was saying, look, JPMorgan can be a fantastic company and it is, but the stock is just too expensive, which is why he doesn't have a buy rating on those shares.
Matthew Miller: 我早些时候在彭博电视上和斯里讨论过这个问题，贝尔德的戴维·乔治也说，你看，摩根大通可以是一家很棒的公司，它也确实是，但股票价格太贵了，这就是他不对这些股票给出买入评级的原因。
Matthew Miller: And then Sree and I were looking through the price to book. What is the best way?
Matthew Miller: 然后斯里和我正在研究市净率。什么是最好的方法？
Matthew Miller: How do the best bank investors look at valuations that makes the most sense for banks?
Matthew Miller: 最好的银行投资者如何看待最适合银行的估值？
Matthew Miller: Because I think it's a little different than other equities.
Matthew Miller: 因为我认为这与其他股票有点不同。
Alison Williams: It is different because if you think about banks versus other kind of companies, they use their balance sheet (资产负债表: 公司在特定时间点的财务状况快照，列出资产、负债和所有者权益) to generate profits.
Alison Williams: 它确实不同，因为如果你考虑银行与其他类型的公司，它们利用资产负债表来创造利润。
Alison Williams: And so that's why return on tangible common equity is a key metric, right?
Alison Williams: 所以这就是为什么有形普通股本回报率是一个关键指标，对吧？
Alison Williams: Because the more profitability that you can generate using your balance sheet, the more you're willing to pay.
Alison Williams: 因为你利用资产负债表产生的盈利能力越强，你就越愿意支付。
Alison Williams: So that's a little bit different than pay.
Alison Williams: 所以这与支付方式有点不同。
Alison Williams: You will notice that price to book (市净率: 衡量公司股价与其每股账面价值之比的指标) is really favored in downturns.
Alison Williams: 你会注意到，市净率在经济下行时特别受青睐。
Alison Williams: It's a place where people look for, in terms of one times price, your book is sort of if you liquidate the bank, what can I get for this versus the ongoing returns?
Alison Williams: 这是一个人们寻找的地方，就一倍市净率而言，你的账面价值有点像如果你清算银行，我能从中得到什么，而不是持续的回报？
Alison Williams: And that's why you have companies like Citigroup trading below tangible book or below book, which obviously they've made a lot of progress since then.
Alison Williams: 这就是为什么像花旗集团这样的公司以低于有形账面价值或低于账面价值的价格交易，这显然他们自那时以来取得了很大进展。
Alison Williams: But for a long time, your bank was trading at like 20% book very well, and the European banks.
Alison Williams: 但在很长一段时间里，你的银行交易价格非常好，大约是账面价值的20%，还有欧洲银行。
Alison Williams: Right, because they're not earning their cost of capital (资本成本: 公司为筹集和使用资金所支付的成本，如支付给股东的股息或支付给债权人的利息).
Alison Williams: 对，因为他们没有赚取他们的资本成本。
Alison Williams: So basically you're eroding value over time.
Alison Williams: 所以基本上你是在随着时间侵蚀价值。
Alison Williams: So that's sort of the opposite.
Alison Williams: 所以这有点相反。
Alison Williams: And so I think those are kind of like two different ways to think about it.
Alison Williams: 所以我认为这两种思考方式有点不同。
Alison Williams: By the way, JPMorgan management also talking about their not liking to buy shares back at this level.
Alison Williams: 顺便说一下，摩根大通管理层也谈到他们不喜欢在这个水平回购股票。
Alison Williams: I heard that, you know, they're pretty daring that they're willing to call that out.
Alison Williams: 我听说，你知道，他们非常大胆，愿意指出这一点。
Alison Williams: But from an equity investor (股票投资者: 投资于公司股票以获取资本增值和股息的个人或机构) standpoint, that's not really helpful either.
Alison Williams: 但从股票投资者的角度来看，这也不是很有帮助。
Carol Massar: Hey, what do we have for Bank of America and Morgan Stanley tomorrow, just quickly, what are you watching out for?
Carol Massar: 嘿，美国银行和摩根士丹利明天有什么消息，快速地说，你正在关注什么？
Alison Williams: Again, we have our analyst expectations set out there, so we're hoping they'll go and beat them.
Alison Williams: 再次，我们已经设定了分析师预期，所以我们希望他们能够超越这些预期。
Alison Williams: But which brings us back full circle. Matt's original point, I don't know what he wants enlisted, or should they apply a humility premium to win executives' guidelines.
Alison Williams: 但这又回到了原点。马特最初的观点，我不知道他想要什么，或者他们是否应该应用“谦逊溢价”来赢得高管的指导。
Alison Williams: So if I were estimating someone's earnings, I would try and get it right.
Alison Williams: 所以如果我正在估算某人的收益，我会尽量做到准确。
Alison Williams: And if I was lowballing it for the last nine out of ten quarters, I would just add 20% doing it based off how the executives are guiding you.
Alison Williams: 如果我在过去十个季度中有九个季度低估了它，我就会根据高管给出的指引，直接增加20%。
Alison Williams: What do you want to check? Hey, kids, take this outside.
Alison Williams: 你想检查什么？好的，孩子们，把这个拿到外面去。
Carol Massar: Okay. All right. We're going to continue this conversation.
Carol Massar: 好的。好吧。我们将继续这个对话。
Carol Massar: We will here at Bloomberg as we continue the bank earnings throughout the rest of this week.
Carol Massar: 在彭博，我们将继续关注本周剩余时间的银行财报。
Carol Massar: Right now, let's get a check on the trading session.
Carol Massar: 现在，让我们来看看交易时段的情况。
Carol Massar: Here is Charlie Bell. Bank of America, which does report tomorrow, is up 2.8%.
Carol Massar: 查理·贝尔。美国银行明天将公布财报，上涨2.8%。
Carol Massar: Morgan Stanley also tomorrow. Up now by just about 0.7%, U.S. stocks were trading mixed.
Carol Massar: 摩根士丹利也是明天。现在上涨约0.7%，美国股市涨跌互现。
Carol Massar: We have got the Dow, the S&P, they're both higher, Nasdaq in the red, S&P up 16, up by about 0.2%.
Carol Massar: 道琼斯工业平均指数、标普指数都上涨了，纳斯达克指数下跌，标普指数上涨16点，涨幅约0.2%。
Carol Massar: The Dow now up 0.8% after earlier losses.
Carol Massar: 道琼斯工业平均指数在早盘下跌后，现在上涨0.8%。
Carol Massar: Nasdaq, though, in the red, Nasdaq Composite Index (纳斯达克综合指数: 衡量纳斯达克市场所有普通股表现的指数) down 48, a drop there of 0.2%.
Carol Massar: 然而，纳斯达克综合指数下跌48点，跌幅0.2%。
Carol Massar: Your ten year, 4.02% with a two year, 3.47% spot.
Carol Massar: 10年期国债收益率为4.02%，2年期为3.47%。
Carol Massar: Gold up 1%, 4149 the ounce.
Carol Massar: 现货黄金上涨1%，每盎司4149美元。
Carol Massar: West Texas Intermediate crude oil down 1.1%, 58.83 a barrel on WTI and Bitcoin now at 113,085, trading lower by 2.4%.
Carol Massar: 西德克萨斯中质原油下跌1.1%，每桶58.83美元，比特币目前为113,085美元，下跌2.4%。
Carol Massar: So again, recapping here, S&P 500 index holding on to a gain of 0.3%.
Carol Massar: 所以再次总结，标普500指数保持0.3%的涨幅。
Charlie: I'm Charlie Peloton. That is a Bloomberg Business flash.
Charlie: 我是查理·佩洛顿。那是彭博商业快讯。
Carol Massar: All right, Charlie, thank you so much.
Carol Massar: 好的，查理，非常感谢。
女性财富转移与投资视角
Carol Massar: Wall Street has spent years preparing for 105 trillion, a pass from elderly parents to their kids.
Carol Massar: 华尔街多年来一直在为105万亿美元的财富转移做准备，这是老年父母传给孩子们的财富。
Carol Massar: But a different kind of wealth transfer is already underway.
Carol Massar: 但另一种财富转移已经开始。
Carol Massar: We talked about this a little bit yesterday, Matt.
Carol Massar: 昨天我们稍微谈了一下这个，马特。
Carol Massar: More than a dozen women in the world's 500 richest people have become billionaires after the death of a spouse.
Carol Massar: 全球500位最富有的人中，有十几位女性在配偶去世后成为了亿万富翁。
Carol Massar: So watch it, guys. No, I'm just kidding.
Carol Massar: 所以，各位，注意了。不，我只是开玩笑。
Carol Massar: It's the highest number. It makes sense because men naturally die at an earlier age than women.
Carol Massar: 这是最高的数字。这很合理，因为男性通常比女性早逝。
Carol Massar: So anything sketchy there.
Carol Massar: 所以那里有没有什么可疑之处。
Carol Massar: If you marry a woman who is your age, which I guess is not so normal among the ultra wealthy, you're likely to die before her.
Carol Massar: 如果你娶了一个与你同龄的女性，这在超级富豪中可能不太常见，你很可能会比她早去世。
Matthew Miller: Yeah. Yeah.
Matthew Miller: 是的。是的。
Matthew Miller: It's just logical. And people have reported on this, so it's nothing crazy like a bad murder series or something.
Matthew Miller: 这很合乎逻辑。而且人们已经报道过这个了，所以它不像一个糟糕的谋杀系列片之类的，没什么疯狂的。
Carol Massar: Did you see what Stephen Colbert said?
Carol Massar: 你看到斯蒂芬·科尔伯特说了什么吗？
Matthew Miller: What did he say?
Matthew Miller: 他说了什么？
Carol Massar: He said, as his wife dies, he's going within a month because he can't imagine life without her.
Carol Massar: 他说，如果他的妻子去世，他会在一个月内随她而去，因为他无法想象没有她的生活。
Matthew Miller: I think that's yeah, that's probably also something that happens when we do the same thing.
Matthew Miller: 我认为，是的，那可能也是我们做同样事情时会发生的事情。
Carol Massar: But let's talk about it because there is this incredible wealth transfer and also wealth concentration when it comes to women.
Carol Massar: 但让我们谈谈它，因为在女性方面，存在着这种令人难以置信的财富转移和财富集中。
Carol Massar: So let's get into it.
Carol Massar: 那么让我们深入探讨一下。
Carol Massar: In this week's Women Money and Power, exploring how this shift is creating huge implications for how vast sums of money are invested, philanthropy (慈善事业: 旨在增进人类福祉的捐赠和活动) and the way that wealth is passed on to the next generation.
Carol Massar: 在本周的“女性、金钱与权力”节目中，我们将探讨这一转变如何对巨额资金的投资方式、慈善事业以及财富向下一代传承的方式产生巨大影响。
Carol Massar: Back with us is Jamie Maguire.
Carol Massar: 再次加入我们的是杰米·马奎尔。
Carol Massar: She is head of U.S. Wealth Advisory (财富管理咨询: 为高净值个人和家庭提供全面财务规划和投资建议的服务) and head of Retirement (退休金管理: 帮助个人规划和管理退休储蓄与投资的服务) at BlackRock.
Carol Massar: 她是贝莱德美国财富管理咨询和退休金管理部门的负责人。
Carol Massar: It's the world's largest asset manager (资产管理公司: 负责管理客户投资组合以实现财务目标的机构).
Carol Massar: 它是全球最大的资产管理公司。
Carol Massar: They notched a record 13.5 trillion in assets.
Carol Massar: 他们创下了13.5万亿美元的资产管理规模新纪录。
Carol Massar: It's up from a trillion when we last talked in June and we got the figure when BlackRock reported.
Carol Massar: 自我们六月上次谈话以来，这一数字从1万亿美元上升，我们是在贝莱德公布财报时获得这个数字的。
Carol Massar: I don't know that I said your name correctly. Maghera.
Carol Massar: 我不知道我是否正确地念了你的名字。马吉拉。
Jamie Maguire: Maghera. Maghera.
Jamie Maguire: 马吉拉。马吉拉。
Carol Massar: It was great. It's just like Maghera.
Carol Massar: 太棒了。就像马吉拉。
Carol Massar: Well, I really like Jamie, so I want to get it right.
Carol Massar: 嗯，我真的很喜欢杰米，所以我想把名字念对。
Carol Massar: Great to talk with you. How are you?
Carol Massar: 很高兴和你交谈。你好吗？
Jamie Maguire: Great. It's really good to be back with you.
Jamie Maguire: 很好。很高兴能再次和你们在一起。
Carol Massar: Well, you know, we are talking about the environment generally, so let's start there.
Carol Massar: 嗯，你知道，我们通常都在谈论环境，所以我们从那里开始吧。
Carol Massar: I know we did that over the summer when we talked because BlackRock just sees so much in terms of the funds that overseas and the flows and the flows continue to grow.
Carol Massar: 我知道我们在夏天谈论贝莱德时也做过这件事，因为贝莱德在海外基金和资金流方面看到了太多，而且资金流还在持续增长。
Carolar Massar: But that doesn't mean the flows are always going in the same places.
Carol Massar: 但这并不意味着资金流总是流向相同的地方。
Carol Massar: What can you give us insight in terms of where money is going and where money's going out of?
Carol Massar: 你能给我们一些关于资金流向和流出的见解吗？
Jamie Maguire: Yeah. So first of all, excellent to be here.
Jamie Maguire: 是的。首先，很高兴来到这里。
Jamie Maguire: And you started by talking about flows.
Jamie Maguire: 你一开始就谈到了资金流。
Jamie Maguire: I'm going to take a gender perspective on flows.
Jamie Maguire: 我将从性别角度来看待资金流。
Jamie Maguire: Yeah. And talk to you a little bit about where we see money going globally with women.
Jamie Maguire: 是的。并向你介绍一下我们看到全球女性资金流向的情况。
Jamie Maguire: And so women more and more are earning welfare, acquiring wealth, they're owning wealth.
Jamie Maguire: 越来越多的女性正在赚取财富、获取财富、拥有财富。
Jamie Maguire: They're playing a larger role in capital markets (资本市场: 长期资金借贷的市场，包括股票市场和债券市场).
Jamie Maguire: 她们在资本市场中扮演着越来越重要的角色。
Jamie Maguire: They are investing and benefiting from these capital markets.
Jamie Maguire: 她们正在投资并从中受益。
Jamie Maguire: And we think there's no better sign of hope in the future than having people invest and grow along the capital markets.
Jamie Maguire: 我们认为，未来没有比人们通过资本市场投资和成长更好的希望迹象了。
Carol Massar: Is it because they're earning it themselves and they're having some say, or is it also in terms of couples because they are often breadwinners as well, that they also have a say at the table?
Carol Massar: 是因为她们自己赚钱并有一定话语权，还是因为她们在夫妻关系中也常常是养家糊口的人，因此在决策中也有发言权？
Jamie Maguire: Yes. So it's both.
Jamie Maguire: 是的。两者兼而有之。
Jamie Maguire: So when you think about women, women are more often now becoming breadwinners, primary breadwinners.
Jamie Maguire: 所以当你想到女性时，女性现在越来越多地成为养家糊口的人，主要养家糊口的人。
Jamie Maguire: Quite often they're also contributing to the household along with their spouses.
Jamie Maguire: 她们也经常与配偶一起为家庭做贡献。
Jamie Maguire: They're earning more money, but they're also acquiring.
Jamie Maguire: 她们赚更多的钱，但她们也在获取财富。
Jamie Maguire: And you mentioned the wealth transfer.
Jamie Maguire: 你提到了财富转移。
Jamie Maguire: We think about that in two ways.
Jamie Maguire: 我们从两个方面考虑这个问题。
Jamie Maguire: There's the intergenerational wealth transfer (代际财富转移: 财富从一代人传给下一代人) where they're gaining assets maybe from their parents as they pass away.
Jamie Maguire: 有一种是代际财富转移，她们可能从去世的父母那里获得资产。
Jamie Maguire: But the more interesting one is this horizontal transfer (横向财富转移: 财富在同代人之间转移，例如夫妻之间或离婚后).
Jamie Maguire: 但更有趣的是这种横向财富转移。
Jamie Maguire: Right. So if a spouse passes away or if there is a divorce, women are acquiring assets in that way and they need financial advisors (财务顾问: 提供财务规划、投资管理和财富管理建议的专业人士) to help their reshaping the industry.
Jamie Maguire: 没错。所以如果配偶去世，或者如果离婚，女性会以这种方式获得资产，她们需要财务顾问来帮助她们重塑这个行业。
Jamie Maguire: And women have just not been served in the way they need to be served.
Jamie Maguire: 而女性在她们需要服务的方式上一直未能得到满足。
Jamie Maguire: I mean, think about that, with Melinda Gates.
Jamie Maguire: 我的意思是，想想看，梅琳达·盖茨。
Carol Massar: You think about it with, you know, Jeff Bezos. No, but I'm just saying there was a big divorce.
Carol Massar: 你想想看，你知道，杰夫·贝佐斯。不，我只是说有一场大离婚。
Jamie Maguire: I got you. Yeah.
Jamie Maguire: 我明白了。是的。
Carol Massar: Okay. You had significant players, certainly in wealth overall, but also in philanthropy.
Carol Massar: 好的。你们有重要的参与者，当然在整体财富方面，也在慈善事业方面。
Jamie Maguire: Yes. Yes. Actually, early estimates that globally $124 trillion will change hands in this silver tsunami.
Jamie Maguire: 是的。是的。实际上，早期估计全球将有124万亿美元在这场“银发海啸”中易手。
Jamie Maguire: And their current forecasts are that 54 trillion will be passed to spouses first before it goes down another generation.
Jamie Maguire: 然后，他们目前的预测是，54万亿美元将首先传给配偶，然后再传给下一代。
Jamie Maguire: So 40% of those spousal transfers will be to women.
Jamie Maguire: 所以这些配偶之间的财富转移中，有40%将流向女性。
Jamie Maguire: So this is what Sallie Krawcheck calls the feminization of wealth.
Jamie Maguire: 这就是萨莉·克劳切克所说的财富的女性化。
Jamie Maguire: And the important idea, I think, here for you, for your industry, is that when women get hold of this money, they often don't stick with their same wealth managers.
Jamie Maguire: 而且我认为，对你，对你的行业来说，一个重要的想法是，当女性掌握这笔钱时，她们通常不会继续与同一个财富经理合作。
Jamie Maguire: They often say, you know what, I'm going to go with someone else now.
Jamie Maguire: 她们经常说，你知道吗，我现在要换个人了。
Jamie Maguire: So what do you do if you want to get hold of a piece of that pie?
Jamie Maguire: 那么如果你想分一杯羹，你会怎么做？
Jamie Maguire: Yeah. So maybe I might even just dimensionalize what you mentioned because I think about it in percentages.
Jamie Maguire: 是的。所以我甚至可能会具体化你提到的内容，因为我从百分比的角度来思考。
Jamie Maguire: So today, let's call it women responsible for controlling 30% of the world's wealth. That will be 50% by 2030, that will be 70% by 2070.
Jamie Maguire: 所以今天，我们称之为女性负责控制全球30%的财富。到2030年将达到50%，到2070年将达到70%。
Jamie Maguire: So these are big numbers.
Jamie Maguire: 所以这些都是大数字。
Carol Massar: Amazing. Big numbers. Yeah.
Carol Massar: 太惊人了。大数字。是的。
Jamie Maguire: And women, as you say, they do things differently. Right?
Jamie Maguire: 正如你所说，女性做事方式不同。对吗？
Jamie Maguire: And they want to do things differently.
Jamie Maguire: 而且她们想以不同的方式做事。
Jamie Maguire: And oftentimes when they're getting a hold of this wealth, when wealth is passing to them, either through their parents and family or through their spouses, they want to do it differently.
Jamie Maguire: 而且通常情况下，当她们掌握这笔财富时，当财富通过父母家人或配偶传给她们时，她们想以不同的方式进行。
Jamie Maguire: They want to be served differently.
Jamie Maguire: 她们希望获得不同的服务。
Jamie Maguire: 70% of women leave their husbands' financial advisor after a divorce or a death within one year.
Jamie Maguire: 70%的女性在离婚或配偶去世后一年内会离开她们丈夫的财务顾问。
Carol Massar: Wow. 70%.
Carol Massar: 哇。70%。
Carol Massar: Why is that?
Carol Massar: 为什么会这样？
Jamie Maguire: Because they oftentimes felt not heard.
Jamie Maguire: 因为她们经常觉得自己的意见没有被听到。
Jamie Maguire: Not part of the conversation, not at the table and making decisions.
Jamie Maguire: 没有参与到对话中，没有参与到决策中。
Jamie Maguire: You know, there is a lot of misconceptions around women.
Jamie Maguire: 你知道，关于女性有很多误解。
Jamie Maguire: People think women aren't engaged with finance. It's just not true.
Jamie Maguire: 人们认为女性不参与金融。这根本不是真的。
Jamie Maguire: A third of U.S. households have women as the primary financial decision maker.
Jamie Maguire: 三分之一的美国家庭由女性担任主要的财务决策者。
Jamie Maguire: People think women are or call women perhaps a bit risk averse.
Jamie Maguire: 人们认为女性，或者说女性可能有点风险规避。
Carol Massar: Well, that's what I wanted to ask you. Are women risk averse?
Carol Massar: 嗯，这正是我要问你的。女性是风险规避者吗？
Carol Massar: Like, give me an idea when you're talking about investments.
Carol Massar: 比如，当你谈论投资时，给我一个概念。
Carol Massar: I mean, we've been thinking about the air trade or private assets.
Carol Massar: 我的意思是，我们一直在考虑航空贸易或私人资产。
Carol Massar: Are they risk averse?
Carol Massar: 她们是风险规避者吗？
Jamie Maguire: So we did a study to make generalizations, but I'm curious if there are.
Jamie Maguire: 所以我们做了一项研究来概括，但我很好奇是否存在。
Jamie Maguire: So, not a monolith, right?
Jamie Maguire: 所以，不是铁板一块，对吗？
Jamie Maguire: Women are very different.
Jamie Maguire: 女性非常不同。
Jamie Maguire: All my friends are different than me. We all do different things and need different things.
Jamie Maguire: 我所有的朋友都和我不同。我们都做不同的事情，需要不同的东西。
Jamie Maguire: But generally speaking, we did a study with 2,500 female investors when we talked to them about their risk tolerance.
Jamie Maguire: 但总的来说，我们对2500名女性投资者进行了一项研究，当我们与她们谈论她们的风险承受能力时。
Jamie Maguire: The majority of them were actually moderate to aggressive because they saw the power of not just gaining wealth through working or through transition, but actually gaining wealth through the capital markets.
Jamie Maguire: 她们中的大多数实际上是中度到激进的，因为她们看到了不仅通过工作或转型，而且通过资本市场获取财富的力量。
Jamie Maguire: Right. Investing in items that will end securities and portfolios that will actually help them grow their portfolio.
Jamie Maguire: 对。投资于那些最终会帮助她们增长投资组合的证券和投资组合。
Jamie Maguire: Private markets (私募市场: 指非公开交易的资产市场，包括私募股权、私募债和房地产等) is a great example again, for a financial advisor to play that role and help and coach and guide a woman in how she thinks about her portfolio across public and private.
Jamie Maguire: 私募市场再次是一个很好的例子，让财务顾问发挥作用，帮助、指导女性如何思考她们在公开市场和私募市场中的投资组合。
Carol Massar: Last time we were together, we talked about direct indexing (直接指数化: 一种投资策略，投资者直接持有构成某个指数的所有或部分股票，而非购买指数基金) and the role of taxes. You know, women oftentimes want to hear your life gets me excited.
Carol Massar: 上次我们在一起时，我们谈到了直接指数化和税收的作用。你知道，女性常常想听你的生活让我兴奋。
Matthew Miller: Direct indexing. Yeah.
Matthew Miller: 直接指数化。是的。
Matthew Miller: You know what? I anchored the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund: 交易所交易基金，一种追踪特定指数、商品、债券或一篮子资产的基金，并在证券交易所上市交易) show for a long time, and that's a big part of that discussion as well.
Matthew Miller: 你知道吗？我主持交易所交易基金节目很长时间了，那也是讨论的重要一部分。
Carol Massar: You know what? It's not just women. Obviously, kids are going to get hold of a lot of this money.
Carol Massar: 你知道吗？不仅仅是女性。显然，孩子们也将掌握很多这笔钱。
Carol Massar: And I think I'm not sure about women, but I know with younger people they want to do more impact investing (影响力投资: 旨在产生积极、可衡量的社会和环境影响，同时获得财务回报的投资) than their parents did or their grandparents did.
Carol Massar: 而且我认为，我不确定女性，但我知道年轻人比他们的父母或祖父母更倾向于进行影响力投资。
Carol Massar: So is that also a key to try?
Carol Massar: 那么这也是一个关键的尝试方向吗？
Carol Massar: Because I'm thinking from the perspective of a wealth manager who wants more business.
Carol Massar: 因为我从一个想要更多业务的财富经理的角度来思考。
Carol Massar: So what I need to do is say, hey, I can set up some direct indexing for you and I can help you make an impact with the money you invest.
Carol Massar: 所以我需要做的是说，嘿，我可以为你设置一些直接指数化，我可以帮助你用你投资的钱产生影响力。
Carol Massar: It's not just to make more money.
Carol Massar: 这不仅仅是为了赚更多的钱。
Carol Massar: You're also going to change some part of the world that you want to.
Carol Massar: 你也将改变你想改变世界的某个部分。
Jamie Maguire: It is. And I like to use the word purpose, because impact actually has many different meanings.
Jamie Maguire: 是的。我喜欢用“目标”这个词，因为“影响力”实际上有很多不同的含义。
Jamie Maguire: And so if I'm a financial advisor and I'm working with a younger client or a woman, I'm going to be talking to, and by the way, men too, right?
Jamie Maguire: 所以如果我是一名财务顾问，我正在与年轻客户或女性客户合作，我也会和男性客户交流，对吗？
Jamie Maguire: It's not just about the impact you're having.
Jamie Maguire: 这不仅仅关乎你产生的影响。
Jamie Maguire: You could invest in a way that maybe aligns with your values or maybe have certain values that are important to you to hold in that portfolio.
Jamie Maguire: 你可以以一种可能与你的价值观相符的方式进行投资，或者在投资组合中持有对你来说很重要的特定价值观。
Matthew Miller: I love motorcycles, so I wouldn't want to be holding their Ducati stock.
Matthew Miller: 我喜欢摩托车，所以我不想持有他们的杜卡迪股票。
Matthew Miller: But, you know, I often wonder about that because if you care about the environment, but if an investment doesn't pay, are people doing that because they believe in it, but it may not return as much as something else?
Matthew Miller: 但是，你知道，我经常想知道，因为，你知道，如果你关心环境，但如果一项投资没有回报，人们这样做是因为他们相信它，但它的回报可能不如其他东西吗？
Jamie Maguire: I'm going to give you an answer that will be terribly unfulfilling.
Jamie Maguire: 我会给你一个非常不令人满意的答案。
Jamie Maguire: It depends.
Jamie Maguire: 这取决于情况。
Matthew Miller: Okay.
Matthew Miller: 好的。
Jamie Maguire: So there are people, and by the way, let's step away from the portfolio for a moment and say, what about philanthropy?
Jamie Maguire: 所以有些人，顺便说一下，让我们暂时抛开投资组合，谈谈慈善事业呢？
Jamie Maguire: This is where I come back to purpose, right?
Jamie Maguire: 这就是我回到“目标”这个词的原因，对吗？
Jamie Maguire: People are looking to put their money to good cause, and that might be philanthropic.
Jamie Maguire: 人们希望把钱用于善举，这可能是慈善性质的。
Jamie Maguire: It might be impact in their portfolio.
Jamie Maguire: 也可能是对他们投资组合的影响。
Jamie Maguire: It might be aligning with the values I have.
Jamie Maguire: 也可能是与我所拥有的价值观相符。
Jamie Maguire: It might also be sending my children to school or helping my elderly parents or starting a new business.
Jamie Maguire: 也可能是送我的孩子上学，或者帮助我的年迈父母，或者创办新企业。
Matthew Miller: Right. How about not for purpose or shielding your money from taxes?
Matthew Miller: 对。那如果不是为了目的，而是为了避税呢？
Matthew Miller: I mean, I guess I'd be willing to take somewhat of a loss by putting my money into a philanthropic vehicle, especially if it's compared to a much bigger loss by giving it away to Uncle Sam and state and local and federal taxes.
Matthew Miller: 我的意思是，我想我愿意通过将我的钱投入慈善机构来承担一定的损失，特别是如果与将其交给山姆大叔以及州、地方和联邦税收所造成的更大损失相比。
Jamie Maguire: And again, that's where I look at things in a vacuum.
Jamie Maguire: 再次，这就是我孤立地看待事物的地方。
Jamie Maguire: You have to look at them, right? Overall, holistic wealth planning.
Jamie Maguire: 你必须从整体上看待它们，对吗？整体全面的财富规划。
Jamie Maguire: And again, the role of a financial advisor is critical there.
Jamie Maguire: 而且，财务顾问的作用在那里至关重要。
Carol Massar: Got to ask you, just in general, when you look at this environment and we talk a lot about a bubble right now, what is your take on it?
Carol Massar: 我必须问你，总的来说，当你审视当前的环境，我们现在经常谈论泡沫，你对此有什么看法？
Carol Massar: What are the conversations you're having with clients about how they feel? Are they a little nervous about that trade?
Carol Massar: 你与客户进行的对话中，他们对交易感到有点紧张吗？
Jamie Maguire: Yeah, we talk about, I mean, we talk to clients, advisors and clients to institutions globally all the time.
Jamie Maguire: 是的，我们谈论，我的意思是，我们一直与全球的客户、顾问和机构客户交流。
Jamie Maguire: Look, the markets are the markets and there are long-term investors that need to just keep staying with the markets we talk about.
Jamie Maguire: 看，市场就是市场，有些长期投资者需要坚持我们所说的市场。
Jamie Maguire: It's not timing the markets, it's time in the markets.
Jamie Maguire: 不是择时入市，而是持之以恒。
Jamie Maguire: The other thing, though, is you just have to acknowledge that there's uncertainty out there, right?
Jamie Maguire: 不过，另一件事是你必须承认存在不确定性，对吗？
Jamie Maguire: There is volatility.
Jamie Maguire: 有波动性。
Jamie Maguire: There are things going on in the markets that, again, everyday people, let's take it to America and Americans.
Jamie Maguire: 市场上正在发生的事情，再次，普通人——让我们以美国和美国人为例。
Jamie Maguire: Everyday people need professional advice.
Jamie Maguire: 普通人需要专业的建议。
Jamie Maguire: They need someone they can trust that will help them navigate that through professionally managed solutions or through advice.
Jamie Maguire: 他们需要一个可以信任的人，通过专业的管理解决方案或建议来帮助他们应对。
Jamie Maguire: But there is uncertainty out there.
Jamie Maguire: 但确实存在不确定性。
Jamie Maguire: But again, we come back to it's time in the market, not timing the market.
Jamie Maguire: 但再次，我们回到那句话：是持之以恒，而不是择时入市。
Carol Massar: 20 seconds, Jamie.
Carol Massar: 杰米，20秒。
Carol Massar: I mean, more people feeling comfortable putting money to work.
Carol Massar: 我的意思是，更多人感到舒适地投入资金。
Carol Massar: Are they after a nice bounce from the April lows, or are they like, I'm good, I'm done?
Carol Massar: 他们是在四月低点反弹后感到舒适，还是觉得“我很好，我完成了”？
Carol Massar: I want to be a bit more conservative. Just quickly.
Carol Massar: 我想更保守一点。快速地说。
Jamie Maguire: No, we are seeing flows into portfolios in ways that are across.
Jamie Maguire: 不，我们看到资金正以各种方式流入投资组合。
Jamie Maguire: As I said, BlackRock was up $1 trillion since the summer.
Jamie Maguire: 正如我所说，贝莱德自夏季以来增长了1万亿美元。
Jamie Maguire: We are having the best conversations we have ever been having with finance advisors, institutions and wealth managers across the world.
Jamie Maguire: 我们正在与全球的金融顾问、机构和财富经理进行有史以来最好的对话。
Jamie Maguire: People are very interested.
Jamie Maguire: 人们非常感兴趣。
Carol Massar: Interested. Okay, good.
Carol Massar: 感兴趣。好的，很好。
Carol Massar: Jamie, thank you so much. So glad we got some time.
Carol Massar: 杰米，非常感谢。很高兴我们有时间。
Carol Massar: Jamie Maguire, she's head of U.S. Wealth Advisory, head of Retirement over at BlackRock, joining us here in studio.
Carol Massar: 杰米·麦格拉，她是贝莱德美国财富管理咨询和退休金管理部门的负责人，在演播室与我们连线。
Carol Massar: Matthew, where are you going?
Carol Massar: 马修，你要去哪里？
Matthew Miller: I have to go to TV.
Matthew Miller: 我得去电视节目。
Carol Massar: Oh, okay. Boy, this is a crazy world.
Carol Massar: 哦，好的。天哪，这个世界真疯狂。
Carol Massar: He was on TV, but he's going to go again to TV.
Carol Massar: 他上过电视，但他又要去上电视了。
Carol Massar: If you are watching on TV, the close is coming your way.
Carol Massar: 如果你正在看电视，收盘即将到来。
Carol Massar: Bloomberg Businessweek Daily continues.
Carol Massar: 《彭博商业周刊每日》继续播出。
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
媒体/书籍: bloomberg-podcasts