美联储主席提名人

Speaker 1: 这一次，特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席，他是美国金融界的青年才俊。一九七零年出生，按照中国人的习惯呢，过完年是五十六岁，所以现在啊是五十五岁。另外一个很有意思的细节，美国自一九八七年格林斯潘上任以后呢，接着的美联储主席伯兰克和耶伦啊都是犹太人，延续时间高达四十一年。现任鲍威尔不是啊，可是如果凯文·沃什的提名得到参议院认可，那就是经过鲍威尔八连中断以后呢，美联储主席再度由犹太人担任。凯文·沃什啊并不是出自财阀家族，他成长在纽约州首府阿尔巴尼的一个中产阶级犹太家庭，但是他被公认为在美国政界和金融界，有着极为扎实的人脉。二零零六年三十六岁的时候啊，他就成为美国历史上最年轻的美联储董事啊，他怎么做到的呢？他的人生路径其实跟在中国啊多少有相似之处。当年出自共青团的人士呢会有超新星爆发的机会，胡春华、陆浩、周强之类的对吧？当然现在习主席已经切断了这条路，主外呢就得靠家庭背景了。中国是红二代管用，美国呢是不同类型的二代啊，首先是大资本家的后代，主要呢当然是在需要任命的职位上。如果是民选的职位啊，大资本家的后代跟普通百姓家的后代呢区别不一定特别大。凯文·沃什兼具两样优势，它本身呢当然要非常优秀，能够上斯坦福大学对吧？这在美国就是北大清华级别的学校，然后呢他选上了学校的学生会主席。接下来呢出自中产阶级的他通过婚姻获得了极为强大的家庭关系的纽带。今天啊我就先说说挣钱花钱这一类有趣的事情啊，接着再说利率通胀这一类比较乏味的事情。

家族联姻与人脉网络

Speaker 2: The 凯文·沃什's wife is called 简·南黛 (Jane Lauder), she is the granddaughter of cosmetics giant 雅诗兰黛 (Estee Lauder). This is a Jewish family. She is three years younger than 凯文·沃什. The two of them, one grew up in the free public school system of upstate New York. The other went to extremely expensive private schools on Manhattan's Upper East Side. But they met by chance at 斯坦福大学. Speaker 1: Although 凯文·沃什 was a senior, and 简·南黛 graduated from 斯坦福 in 1995, she joined the 雅诗兰黛集团 founded by Estee Lauder, and soon became responsible for managing two brands: 倩碧 (Clinique) and Origins. Speaker 3: Jane is the global brand president of Clinique, which I didn't know. Clinique is actually the largest division of Estee Lauder. It's incredible. It was really a dream job, and it was the first brand that I used. Probably a lot of women in the room had that similar experience. Slightly different was my father was actually president of Clinique. Um, when I was eleven, and I remember him coming home and bringing me three staff. Speaker 1: And for the first time I use... After working for almost thirty years, in 2024, she stepped down as Executive Vice President of the 雅诗兰黛集团, but remains a director. Her personal assets are currently estimated at $2.7 billion. The 雅诗兰黛集团 owns over twenty brands with annual revenue exceeding $15 billion. 简·南黛 is the daughter of Estee Lauder's youngest son, 罗纳德·兰黛 (Ronald Lauder). 罗纳德's personal assets are currently $5 billion. He is a major Republican donor and has been 特朗普's friend for over sixty years. I've heard of this person several times before. 罗纳德·兰黛 played a key role in an important item on 特朗普's agenda. He told 特朗普 about the historical connection between the US and 格陵兰, thus planting the seed for 特朗普 to consider purchasing 格陵兰. 罗纳德·兰黛 and 特朗普 knew each other when they studied at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He was born in 1944, two years older than 特朗普. 罗纳德's older brother, Leonard, was more involved in the daily operations of the cosmetics company inherited from their mother. He himself was more interested in public service. Estee Lauder was a long-time good friend of Nancy Reagan. In the 1980s, when Reagan was president, 罗纳德 first served in the federal government, as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Affairs. While working at the Pentagon, he met 科林·鲍威尔 (Colin Powell), who was then Assistant Secretary of Defense. The two often traveled to Europe together. 鲍威尔 said that when it came to choosing restaurants and other matters related to culture and enjoyment, everyone listened to 罗纳德, without any dispute; he was the most experienced and tasteful. 鲍威尔 later rose to become Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the highest-ranking military officer in the US. During the George W. Bush administration, he served as Secretary of State. In 1986, Reagan appointed 罗纳德 as US Ambassador to Austria. 罗纳德 had a special affection for Austria; his parents and family were from the territory of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and were Jewish. However, 罗纳德's tenure as Ambassador to Austria was not long, only eighteen months. The reason was that Kurt Waldheim, who had served as UN Secretary-General, was elected President of Austria. But his history as a Nazi officer was exposed. As a Jew, 罗纳德 refused to attend Waldheim's inauguration. He could no longer continue as ambassador. Of course, he had very pleasant experiences in Europe. At that time, 鲍威尔 was the commander of the US V Corps in Germany, with the rank of Lieutenant General. He could command a special train that traveled between Frankfurt and Berlin, which included several luxury carriages left over from the Nazi era. 罗纳德 took his wife and two daughters on a wonderful trip. His two daughters were 凯文·沃什's current wife, 简·南黛, and her older sister, Irene. After returning to New York, 罗纳德 ran for Mayor of New York in 1989. Unlike other mayoral candidates, he did not need to attend every major district to raise funds and solicit votes. For example, the current Black mayor, Adams, often visited New York's Fujian immigrant communities and heavily Chinese-populated Flushing to raise campaign funds, which led to many troubles related to corruption. 罗纳德 spent $14 million of his own money to run, which was an astonishing sum in the 1980s. However, he lost in the Republican primary to Rudy Giuliani, a former federal prosecutor. Speaker 4: I said, the the people, people direction. Yes, yes, uh, the election is over and that uh you have to support the winner of election, that Ronald. Speaker 1: He received only about nine thousand votes in total, costing an average of $1,500 per vote. I guess almost everyone who voted for him at the time hoped that 罗纳德 wouldn't spend money on expensive and meaningless TV ads, but would directly turn $1,500 into shopping vouchers and give them to voters. However, US law strictly prohibits this. 罗纳德 lives very close to 特朗普 in New York, and they are also neighbors in Palm Beach, Florida. 罗纳德's oceanfront mansion, passed down from his mother Estee Lauder, was built in the 1920s by a renowned architect. It is only four kilometers from 特朗普's Mar-a-Lago. 罗纳德's daughter, 简·兰黛, and 特朗普's now nominee for 美联储 chairman, 凯文·沃什, had their wedding there in 2002. At the time, the groom was 32 and the bride was 29. In 2004, 特朗普 collaborated with 雅诗兰黛 to launch a cologne called "Donald Trump The Fragrance". 罗纳德·兰黛 mentioned the idea of buying 格陵兰 to 特朗普 early in his first term. With his extensive network in Europe, he told 特朗普 that he could serve as a secret channel for negotiations with the Danish government. The National Security Advisor at the time was 约翰·博尔顿 (John Bolton). 特朗普 told 博尔顿, "One of my friends, a very experienced businessman, thinks we can get 格陵兰. What do you think?" The friend 特朗普 mentioned was, of course, 罗纳德·兰黛. 博尔顿 organized a team that spent several months researching the matter. Together, they participated in secret meetings with the Danish Ambassador to the US and drafted a memorandum outlining various options, including leasing 格陵兰, similar to land leasing and real estate development in New York. 特朗普 was certainly very familiar with this. However, 格陵兰's area is slightly larger than a plot of land in New York. 博尔顿 was quite interested in this matter, primarily concerned about the expansion of Chinese and Russian influence in the Arctic region, believing it would be good for the US to increase its presence in 格陵兰. However, he thought buying the entire island was impossible, calling it delusional. But 特朗普 was unwavering. Compared to national security advisors whose views didn't overlap much with his, 博尔顿 trusted his billionaire friend 罗纳德·兰黛 more. 罗纳德 was not very interested in leasing and hoped to buy it. 特朗普 told several prominent political journalists in Washington at the time, "Look at the map, look at the size of 格陵兰. It's huge. It should be part of the United States. After all, I'm a real estate developer. It's no different from me wanting a store to be in a building I'm constructing." His meaning was that annexing 格陵兰 to the US was no different from him getting a store into his developed property. Speaker 5: In 1844, he was the Democratic compromise candidate for president. He promised to expand American territory to the west and fulfill the belief of manifest destiny. Speaker 1: Now, 特朗普 has a portrait of 詹姆斯·博尔克 (James K. Polk) hanging in the Oval Office. He was a president before the Civil War. Honestly, I know a little about American history, but this name is very unfamiliar to me. 特朗普 often tells visitors, "Polk acquired a lot of land." In 1848, 詹姆斯·博尔克 acquired a vast territory from Mexico, which now belongs to California, Arizona, and New Mexico, for $15 million. A newly elected young congressman at the time strongly opposed this rather unfair transaction. More than a decade later, this congressman became one of the greatest presidents in American history, 亚伯拉罕·林肯 (Abraham Lincoln). Speaker 6: It's all about the object. The object and the painting talk to me. And I understand it is the object that tells me the story. Speaker 1: Speaking of the father-in-law of this future 美联储 chairman, besides his long-standing friendship with 特朗普, there's another thing that must be mentioned: his art collection. His New Gallery, located at the intersection of Fifth Avenue and East 86th Street on Manhattan's Upper East Side. New Gallery is his owned gallery, a German name. Unlike large public museums that pursue comprehensiveness and systematization, small private galleries emphasize uniqueness. 罗纳德's New Gallery is nicknamed the "Jewel Box". It is compact and exquisite, housing artworks as valuable as jewels in a metropolis. Many would say he owns the world's most outstanding personal collection of modern art. Whenever 罗纳德 is in New York, he spends several days a week at this gallery. This building once belonged to the 19th-century railroad magnate Vanderbilt family and was built in 1914. It was designed by an architectural firm, similar to Grand Central Terminal and the New York Public Library on Fifth Avenue. The most dazzling piece in 罗纳德·兰黛's collection is an outstanding Austrian painting: 古斯塔夫·克里姆特 (Gustav Klimt)'s "Adele Bloch-Bauer I", referred to as "Adele I". Commissioned in 1903 by Viennese Jewish industrialist Ferdinand Bloch-Bauer, the subject of the painting is his 25-year-old wife, Adele. She has a rosy complexion and sensual lips. In Vienna, she was a renowned organizer of social events. 克里姆特 was the most famous painter in Austria at the time. He depicted Adele adorned with opulent jewelry, wearing an alluring golden gown, set against an abstract golden background. It seems her only task that day was to organize a group of ladies to discuss Gustav Mahler's newly composed symphony. Speaker 2: The gold is the most prominent color in Klimt's works. Gold for Klimt is like blue for porcelain, red for the Communist Party. This is not decoration; it is the lifeblood. Speaker 1: Adele's children moved to Los Angeles. In 2006, after private negotiations with the family, 罗纳德 purchased this painting for $135 million, setting a new record for art sales at the time. This was $31 million higher than the previous record set in 2004 by Picasso's "Boy with a Pipe". 罗纳德 is already eighty-two years old. He has not revealed where "Adele I" will be housed in the future; it could very well be the Metropolitan Museum of Art or the Museum of Modern Art (MoMA) in New York. Of course, he hasn't said he's keeping it solely for his own enjoyment. For a few minutes each morning after waking up and before sleeping, he allows himself to gaze at it. He is very generous and has a strong desire to share. He often serves as a docent for visitors at his gallery. Gallery admission is $28, $18 for seniors over 65, and $15 for teachers, students, and the disabled. He offers free admission times every month. In 罗纳德's view, "Adele I" is both a magnificent work of art and an important historical artifact consistent with a museum's mission. Klimt's greatest work is "The Kiss", but 罗纳德 believes Ferdinand and Adele better represent the Vienna of that era. In the 1900s, Viennese Jews formed a very unique world. Among them were Freud, the creator of psychoanalysis; Musil and Zweig, great writers; and Gustav Mahler, the great composer. And "Adele I" is the embodiment of that era. Adele had salons and charisma. Unlike Klimt's "The Kiss", "Adele I" is a living painting, full of vitality. When 罗纳德 talks about this painting to visitors, his demeanor is like that of a father greeting guests at his daughter's wedding. After the gallery closes, he often gazes at the painting alone for up to an hour, not just for a few minutes after waking or before sleeping. 罗纳德 owns about 4,000 works. His taste is widely praised in the art world. Discerning collectors can distinguish between great and good. 罗纳德 can distinguish between great and excellent. For years, he has told people he collects art in three tiers, or a three-part system: first is "Oh", second is "Oh good", and the top tier is "Oh my god". Speaker 6: I had three categories: Oh, Oh my, and Oh my god. Oh my was by a famous artist, but not his best. And Oh my god was a great work by that artist. Speaker 1: Oh, later 罗纳德 added a fourth category to his three-tier system: artworks he wanted to collect but were already in museums. Simply put, he only buys the best and takes pride in doing so at any cost. In his collection, there are dozens of works at the "Oh my god" level, including those by Impressionist master Cézanne. 罗纳德's methods for acquiring famous paintings are quite interesting. Twenty years ago, he wanted to buy a Matisse painting he had been eyeing for many years, "The Yellow Curtain". The collector lived in Brussels, Belgium. Upon hearing that the owner might be willing to sell, he flew there immediately. However, the collector did not want to sell to 罗纳德, saying the painting would be buried with him. 罗纳德 then asked, "How are you feeling physically now? When do you expect that to be?" He didn't directly ask about the burial date, seeming more subtle, but for the collector, this negotiation tactic was too aggressive. It's unknown if 特朗普's approach to buying 格陵兰 was influenced by his old friend 罗纳德's attempt to buy the Matisse. The Brussels collector kept the Matisse painting for some time before selling it to an art dealer. 罗纳德 immediately bought it from the dealer. After keeping it for a while, he soon donated it to the Museum of Modern Art (MoMA) in New York. When people see this work at the museum, the description will state "Gift of Joe Carroll and 罗纳德·兰黛". 乔·卡罗尔 (Joe Carroll) is 罗纳德's wife. MoMA has a building named after the couple. Their two daughters, Irene and Jane, both worked at the 雅诗兰黛公司 for many years. The interesting part is finished. Next, let's discuss the more tedious topics of interest rates and inflation. Besides the decades-long relationship, a significant reason for 特朗普's nomination of 凯文·沃什 might be the backlash caused by the ongoing criminal investigation into current chairman 鲍威尔. The Justice Department's action against 鲍威尔 targets the budget overrun of the 美联储 building renovation project, which increased from $1.9 billion to about $2.5 billion. This move has raised concerns among some in American society about the independence of the 美联储. They worry about the president exerting too direct an influence on the 美联储's operations. Government projects exceeding budget are common; oversight and audits are necessary, but rarely do they escalate to the level of criminal investigation. Previously, a popular candidate for 美联储 chairman was 凯文·哈塞特 (Kevin Hassett). His current position is Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, a role that reports directly to 特朗普. If 哈塞特 were to lead the 美联储, would this institution become like other departments directly managed by 特朗普? People have this concern. In comparison, 凯文·沃什 is considered more independent. 鲍威尔's term ends in May. Upon learning of 凯文·沃什's nomination, he said at a press conference, "Don't get involved in election politics. Absolutely do not do that." Speaker 7: The point of independence is not to protect policy occurring like that. It just is that every advanced economy democracy in the world has come around to this common practice. It's just an institutional arrangement that is, that is served the people well, and that is to have a separation between, do not have direct elected officials control over the setting of monetary policy. Speaker 1: And the reason for 凯文·沃什's nomination still has some uncertainty in passing the Senate. For example, Senator 汤姆·迪利斯 (Tom Tillis) from North Carolina, who vowed to block 特朗普's nominees. He admitted that 凯文·沃什 has a deep understanding of financial policy and is certainly a qualified nominee. However, he is concerned that the Justice Department's investigation into 鲍威尔 and the 美联储 must be fully resolved before he can support any 特朗普 nominee. He is not the only Republican senator expressing similar concerns. Senator Tillis is one of the few outspoken critics of 特朗普 in the Senate and has given up his chance for re-election this year. Currently, the Republican party holds a majority in the Senate by 53 to 47 votes. 凯文·沃什 needs at least 50 votes to be confirmed, meaning he can afford to lose at most three votes. I think there won't be any practical problems with his appointment. Speaker 8: I think the Fed has done a very good job of blaming others for their mistakes. It's been very popular to blame the president because he's being so mean to them. Well, most of the Fed's mistakes are because of choices they've made. Speaker 1: 凯文·沃什 is a skilled operator in the American financial world, known and respected by virtually everyone. He also serves as a fellow at his alma mater, 斯坦福大学's Hoover Institution, and has joined the board of directors of UPS. Besides family ties, his social network is very solid. During his studies at 斯坦福大学, 凯文·沃什 was elected student body president. Besides learning golf, a top-tier social skill, he demonstrated a strong ability to build connections. Beyond finding a girlfriend like 简·南黛, he consistently made a profound impression on other key figures, such as influential professors. In 2002, a White House advisor under 小布什 called an economics professor at 斯坦福 hoping to find a sharp and capable young person. The professor immediately recommended 凯文·沃什, calling him his smartest student. Billionaire investor 斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒 (Stanley Druckenmiller), a mentor to 凯文·沃什 and also Jewish, partnered with 索罗斯 (George Soros) for over a decade. Their styles in the financial market differed: Soros was a gambler of the political philosopher type, while Druckenmiller was more like a cold-blooded surgeon. 凯文·沃什 later became a partner at Druckenmiller's family investment firm. In 2005, 本·伯南克 came into President 小布什's view as a candidate to succeed 格林斯潘 as 美联储 chairman. 凯文·沃什 assisted 伯兰克 in preparing for his Senate confirmation hearing, making himself an indispensable helper. After 伯兰克 took office, he played a crucial role in 凯文·沃什's appointment as a 美联储 governor by 小布什 in 2006. During the 2008 financial crisis, his keen market judgment and extensive political connections proved extremely valuable. 凯文·沃什 thus became closer to the core of decision-making than many more senior colleagues, including Republican leaders in the White House and top executives on Wall Street. 伯兰克 couldn't do without him. At that time, within the 美联储, a common saying among staff emerged: "This is important, but has 凯文·沃什 been informed?" 凯文·沃什 is very intelligent, but despite being a 美联储 governor, he would not introduce himself at such important occasions. When introducing himself, he would often say he was 伯兰克's assistant, greatly downplaying his own importance in public settings. It's evident that 凯文·沃什 is a talent with high IQ and EQ. Speaker 8: I think the president's language is this: "This could be a golden age." And frankly, I think they all could be right. Good policies could advance the US economy. But we call AI in a couple years, it will just call business. And AI is going to make almost everything colorless, less in the US. The US can be a big winner. Speaker 1: When 凯文·沃什 took office as a 美联储 governor in 2006, he was only thirty-six years old, setting a record as the youngest in American history. Including the chairman and vice chairman, the 美联储 has seven governors. 凯文·沃什 served in this position for five years. In 2017, during 特朗普's first term, he considered appointing him as 美联储 chairman, but was mainly concerned about him being too young, only forty-seven years old. Furthermore, his consistent long-term view was concern about inflation, implying a conservative stance on interest rate cuts, which was something 特朗普 cared more about. After the 2008 financial crisis, 凯文·沃什 had worried that ultra-low interest rates and large fiscal deficits would lead to severe inflation in the US. The facts proved his concerns did not materialize. So later, 特朗普 chose 鲍威尔. In the current term, 特朗普 also considered appointing 凯文·沃什 as Secretary of the Treasury, one of the most important cabinet positions, second only to Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense. Yes, yes, the disagreements between 特朗普 and 鲍威尔 were clear to the whole world, with no secrets hidden. 特朗普 advocated for interest rate cuts, while 鲍威尔, based on his independent judgment, did not. During 特朗普's second term, their working relationship was very tense. 特朗普 called 鲍威尔 stubborn, a fool, and "Mr. Slow on the Draw". The relationship between interest rate cuts and inflation is simply put: cutting rates can stimulate economic growth and increase employment, but it also carries the risk of pushing up inflation. The 美联储's goal is to keep annual inflation below 2%. Since September 2025, the 美联储 has actually cut rates three times, the most recent being on December 10th. However, 美联储 officials recently stated that they expect only one more rate cut in 2026. Speaker 8: If I were the president, what I would be worried about is a central bank that doesn't see AI about is a central bank that's stuck with models from 1978, governance from a prior period. Speaker 1: 凯文·沃什's support for 特朗普's agenda is certainly much greater than 鲍威尔's. He agrees with 特朗普's economic agenda, especially regarding bank deregulation. 特朗普's tariff policy has sparked much controversy. 凯文·沃什 has publicly downplayed the inflationary impact of raising tariffs, essentially defending 特朗普. Therefore, while 特朗普's primary concern is interest rate cuts, 凯文·沃什 may not necessarily agree wholeheartedly. He has criticized the 美联储's decision to cut rates in September 2024, a critical stage of the election. Although his attitude towards rate cuts has adjusted recently, stating he is open to lower rates, he also emphasizes the paramount importance of the 美联储's independence in monetary policy. 凯文·沃什 also dislikes quantitative easing (QE), a policy where the 美联储 buys US Treasury bonds and other financial assets to curb market volatility during financial turmoil. In his view, QE distorts the market and ultimately leads to inflation, primarily benefiting Wall Street. When 伯兰克 was 美联储 chairman, 凯文·沃什 left his position as a 美联储 governor early mainly due to dissatisfaction with QE. His term could have extended to 2018. Despite significant policy disagreements, 伯兰克 and 凯文·沃什 maintained a good relationship because 沃什 always participated in team discussions with a frank and constructive attitude, and his sincerity was never questioned. From 2008 to 2022, the 美联储's balance sheet grew tenfold, from $900 billion to $9 trillion. It has since slightly decreased and is currently around $6.6 trillion. Speaker 9: Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Wossh has given word to the president of the United States that he intends to leave the Fed, leave his seat on the board by March 31st. Wash has at the right right and and Ben Bernanke financial crisis. Speaker 1: In recent years, 凯文·沃什 has been a critic of the 美联储 under 鲍威尔's leadership. Whether through speeches, interviews, or articles, his criticism has focused on the ineffective handling of inflation, the poor overall impact on financial markets, and progressive policies emphasizing climate change, diversity, equality, and inclusion (DEI). He believes the 美联储 faces a credibility crisis, is too large, and requires systemic reform. If he succeeds in taking office, it could signify a disruption to the succession of 美联储 chairmen over the past few decades. Generally, successors tend to emphasize continuity with their predecessors. However, 凯文·沃什 will clearly play the role of a change agent. For instance, regarding the 美联储's current balance sheet of $6.6 trillion, he has consistently felt it is too large and should be reduced in consultation with the Treasury, diminishing the central bank's presence in the money market. Other important areas that might be affected include the 美联储's policy framework, its role in the macroeconomy, and its relationship with the White House administration. Regarding the positioning of central bank managers, in simple terms, 凯文·沃什 does not want to be in the news; he wants to be in history. Speaker 8: The broad conduct of monetary policy has been broken for quite a long time. The central bank that sits there today is radically different from the central bank I joined in '06. Uh, I don't think we need policy continuity that brought about the greatest mistake in macroeconomic policy in 45 years, that divided the country, that caused a surge in inflation. I don't think we need continuity when the central bank doesn't have credibility. Speaker 1: In the future, 凯文·沃什 has three major tasks. First, to significantly reduce the 美联储's balance sheet without disrupting the market. Second, to bring inflation back to 2% and keep it stable; it is currently close to 3%. Third, to complete the first two tasks without interference from 特朗普, while maintaining the 美联储's independence. He will promote the 美联储 to have a smaller footprint in the macroeconomy, simplify its mission, and reduce its institutional size. His statement is that the 美联储 does not have the capacity to solve all economic problems. If Congress or the White House pushes policies with directional errors, the 美联储 can do little. The 美联储 cannot function as a repair shop to fix failed fiscal, trade, or regulatory policies. Alright, everyone, we will conclude today's discussion on 美联储 chairman nominee 凯文·沃什 here. Thank you all for your attention. Welcome everyone to show your support through likes, comments, shares, rewards, and joining the meeting. See you next time. Speaker 2: Thank you.