特朗普政府的策略转变
《纽约时报》的 Natalie Kitro 报道。这是《每日》节目。在针对委内瑞拉的不断升级的行动中，特朗普政府已从击沉毒品船只转向在加勒比海扣押多艘石油油轮。今天，我的同事 Anatoli Kmanay 将解释特朗普总统为何调整对委内瑞拉的策略，以及这可能揭示他真正的最终目标。在过去几周里，叙事发生了重大转变。Natalie，焦点已从主要军事行动转向了主要是经济行动。美国政府已放弃在加勒比海的船只打击行动，以及阻止毒品从委内瑞拉流入美国的所谓行动，转而采取针对委内瑞拉石油的措施。他们已开始针对出口委内瑞拉石油的油轮采取行动，这是该国最大的收入来源，意图非常明显地挤压该国的财政，直至窒息，以达成其军事手段未能实现的目标。
Original English
From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitro. This is The Daily. In its escalating campaign against Venezuela, the Trump administration has gone from shooting down drug boats to now trying to seize multiple oil tankers in the Caribbean Sea. Today, my colleague Anatoli Kmanay explains why President Trump is shifting his tactics on Venezuela and what that might tell us about his true endgame. We have seen major shifts in the narrative over the last few weeks. Natalie, the focus has shifted from a primarily military campaign to primarily economic campaign. The US government has moved away from boat strikes in the Caribbean and the alleged campaign to stop the flow of drugs coming from Venezuela to the United States and they have moved towards Venezuelan oil. They have moved towards taking action against tankers exporting Venezuelan oil, the biggest source of the country's revenue with a very clear attempt to squeeze the country's finances uh squeeze them to the point of strangulation and achieve the results that they have not been able to achieve through military ends.“Skipper”号油轮被扣押事件
那么，在 12 月 10 日，一艘名为“Skipper”的油轮，载有约 200 万桶石油，正驶向中国，这是委内瑞拉最大的市场。特朗普政府发布了非同寻常的视频，展示了在委内瑞拉附近扣押一艘油轮的画面。随后，该油轮在国际水域遭到美国执法人员的伏击。视频显示，美国海军的直升机蜂拥而至，人员从直升机上降落到油轮甲板，荷枪实弹，控制了这艘船。当晚，新卫星图像显示，这艘被美国扣押的油轮正驶向德克萨斯州加尔维斯顿港。船员被命令将船驶往德克萨斯州。
Original English
So on December 10th, an oil tanker called Skipper carrying about 2 million barrels of oil was heading east towards China carrying Venezuelan oil to its biggest market. Extraordinary video released by the Trump administration showing the seizure of an oil tanker off of Venezuela. Then it was ambushed international waters by US law enforcement agents. Watch as US Navy helicopters swarm the tanker who repelled from a helicopter coming onto the um deck of the oil tanker and then as I see it there, guns drawn and took control of a vessel. Tonight, new satellite images of that oil tanker seized by the US off the coast of Venezuela, headed to a port in Galveastston, Texas, and ordered the crew to take the ship towards Texas.策略升级与公关疑云
这是特朗普总统针对委内瑞拉及其所谓的“非法统治政权”的施压行动的新一轮升级。起初，这艘油轮的被扣似乎是一次性的公关举动，旨在吸引全球关注，并将叙事从针对毒品船只的攻击转移开，因为后者在美国公众舆论中日益引起争议，并招致包括部分共和党人在内的美国立法者的强烈反对。许多关注委内瑞拉的人认为这次扣押是一场“红鲱鱼”（虚张声势）。但事实证明，这并非虚张声势，也非孤例。
Original English
It's a new escalation in President Trump's pressure campaign against Venezuela and what he calls its illegitimate narotist regime. And at first, the tankers detention appeared to be a one-off, you know, like a big public relations move, you know, aimed to grab world attention, shift the narrative away from attacks on drug boats, which were becoming increasingly problematic in US public opinion, and would draw an increasing backlash from American lawmakers, including even some Republicans. And the seizure was theatrical move that for many of us with cover Venezuela thought was a red herring.持续的油轮追捕行动
但事实证明，这并非虚张声势，也非孤例。特朗普政府随后开始追捕更多油轮，这成为了一个更大计划的一部分。此后，美国已针对另外两艘与委内瑞拉石油有关的油轮采取行动。美国海岸警卫队正在追击第三艘在委内瑞拉海岸附近的油轮，这是过去 10 天内的第三起事件。甚至在我们谈话时，他们还在追击另一艘曾在委内瑞拉作业、正前往某国装载原油的船只。他们正在海上积极追捕它。这画面很难让人理解，因为油轮显然无法甩掉美国的炮艇，但特朗普承诺最终会将其捕获。
Original English
But it obviously wasn't a red herring. It wasn't a one-off. The administration then started going after more tankers. It became part of something bigger. This morning, the United States is escalating its pressure campaign against Venezuela. Since then, we have seen the US take action against two more oil tankers with ties to Venezuelan oil. The US Coast Guard is pursuing a third tanker off the Venezuelan coast. It's the third in the last 10 days. And they, as we speak, they are chasing another vessel that has worked in Venezuela, which was on the way to a country to pick up crude there. They're actively chasing it in the ocean. Yeah, it's a very tough image to understand in your head because clearly a tanker cannot outrun American gunboats, but Trump has promised that they will get it eventually.委内瑞拉的愤怒与制裁背景
委内瑞拉政府对此勃然大怒。一位消息人士称，马杜罗不仅愤怒，简直是疯了。他们称美国为“杀人犯”、“盗贼”、“海盗”，称美国为“加勒比海盗”。Anatoli，上次我们谈话时，你曾明确表示，让马杜罗下台是特朗普政府内部一些非常有权势人物——特别是马可·卢比奥和国务卿——的一个重要目标。听起来，这个目标在近几周变得更加明确。但特朗普本人对政府此举的官方理由是什么呢？最初的解释是，美国只是在执行已有的制裁。特朗普在做的是前几届政府不敢做的事情。
Original English
Venezuelan government is livid. One source said Maduro is not just angry, he's bananas. They have called the US murderers, thieves, pirates, referring to, you know, United States as the pirates of the Caribbean. Anatoli, when we talked last, you made it very clear that forcing Maduro out was a big goal for very powerful people inside the Trump administration, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State in particular. And it sounds like that goal has become even more explicit in the weeks since. But what is Trump saying about the official justification for what the administration is doing here? So the initial explanation was that US is simply enforcing sanctions already in place. Trump was doing something that previous administrations didn't have the gut to do.“暗黑舰队”与制裁借口
我们能否暂停一下，解释一下你提到的这些早已存在的对委内瑞拉的制裁？请详细说明一下。在其第一任期内，特朗普曾发起初步行动试图推翻马杜罗，并对委内瑞拉石油行业实施了制裁。他禁止美国公司与拥有委内瑞拉所有石油的委内瑞拉国家石油公司合作。这使得委内瑞拉极难出售其石油，并开始日益依赖所谓的“暗黑舰队”或“影子舰队”。基本上，这些油轮游走在国际法边缘，但却将受制裁的石油运往世界各地，主要是中国。委内瑞拉对受制裁船只的依赖，为特朗普政府提供了绝佳的借口来打击其石油产业。
Original English
Can we just pause there and explain for a moment these pre-existing sanctions that you're saying have existed on Venezuela? Take me through those. During his first administration, Trump made an initial push to topple Maduro from power and he sanctioned Venezuelan oil industry. He made it illegal for American companies to work with Venezuela State Oil Company, which owns all the oil in Venezuela. And this made it very difficult for Venezuela to to sell its oil. And it started to increasingly rely on the so-called dark fleet or shadow fleet. Basically, tankers exist on the very edge of legality of international law, but carry sanctioned oil around the world, primarily to China. and Venezuela's reliance on sanctioned vessels uh has given the current Trump administration a perfect excuse to go after its oil industry.执行制裁的考量与特朗普的指控
你提到特朗普政府现在正在执行这些制裁，而且是以其以前不愿采取的方式，也是拜登政府未曾采取的方式。为什么？嗯，一直以来的主要担忧是扰乱脆弱的全球石油市场，制造行业波动并推高全球油价，这将影响到美国的汽油价格。你知道，通货膨胀显然是美国一个巨大的政治问题，这阻止了特朗普和拜登政府在一定程度上执行制裁。但本月，特朗普决定放手一搏。他抛开了过去的谨慎，大张旗鼓地针对委内瑞拉的石油产业。到目前为止，油价受到的影响相当温和。有很多其他因素在起作用：经济疲软，市场上还有很多其他受制裁的石油。但到目前为止，油价并未出现有意义的上涨，这让他获得了 carte blanche（全权委托）来扩大和升级他的策略。
Original English
And you said that the Trump administration is now going out and actually enforcing these sanctions in a way that it wasn't willing to do before and in a way that the Biden administration hasn't done before. Why? Well, the big fear has always been upsetting the fragile global oil market, right? creating uh volatility in the industry and raising global oil prices which would have an impact on American pumps. You know, inflation being obviously a massive political issue in United States and that has prevented Trump and the B administration in part from enforcing the sanctions. But this month, Trump decided to give it a shot. He threw to the side the caution of the past and went big time against Venezuelan's oil industry. And so far the effects on the oil prices has been fairly muted. There are a lot of other different factors at play. The economy is weak. There's a lot of other sanctioned oil out there. But so far the prices have not bulged in any meaningful way which has given him a card blanch to to expand his strategy to to scale it up.特朗普的“石油盗窃”论
但还有一个更重要的理由。在扣押第一艘油轮后不久，特朗普在他的社交媒体平台 Truth Social 上发表了一篇长文，声称委内瑞拉政府“大规模盗窃美国石油”。根据他的说法，委内瑞拉政府窃取了美国的土地，窃取了美国的石油，欺骗了美国的石油公司，他正在纠正历史性的错误。
Original English
But there's a bigger justification in play. You know, shortly after the detention with First Tanker, Trump published this long screed on Truth Social, his his media platform, where he alleged a wholesale theft of American oil by Venezuelan government. Venezuelan government, according to him, has stolen American land, has stolen American oil, has defrauded American oil companies, and he is writing a historical wrong.国有化历史与说法模糊
他到底在说什么？请解释一下。简短的回答是，我们不知道，这是一个非常不连贯的说法，与任何历史事件都不太吻合。但纵观其历史，委内瑞拉曾有过几种国有化的方式。最近一次是在 2007 年，马杜罗的前任乌戈·查韦斯将一些油田国有化，导致埃克森美孚和康菲石油等美国公司撤离，并此后一直起诉委内瑞拉政府。好吧，我们不太确定特朗普指的是什么，但这似乎是指那段国有化时期，美国石油公司被赶出委内瑞拉，政府接管了控制权。
Original English
What is he actually talking about there? Explain that. The short answer is that we don't know is a is a very incoherent tax that does not neatly match on any historical events. But throughout its history, Venezuela had several ways of nationalization. Most recently in 2007 where Maduro's predecessor Ugo Chavez nationalized some of the oil fields leading to the exodus of some American companies like Axen Mobile and Kanoko Phillips who have been suing Venezuelan government ever since. Okay, so we're not exactly sure what Trump was referring to, but it seems to be a reference to this period of nationalization where American oil companies were kicked out of Venezuela and the government took control.雪佛龙公司的例外
但这一切有一个例外，对吧，Anatoli？雪佛龙（Chevron），一家美国石油公司，仍在委内瑞拉运营。没错，Natalie。现实情况比特朗普政府试图描绘的叙事要复杂得多。在那最后一波国有化浪潮中，并非所有美国公司都离开了。有些公司留了下来，其中最大的一家就是雪佛龙。它与委内瑞拉政府进行了谈判，并且与尼古拉斯·马杜罗和美国政府达成的协议允许他们生产其在委内瑞拉运营油田的所有石油，并将其中一半石油交还给委内瑞拉政府，其余的出口到美国。
Original English
But there is an exception to all this, right, Anatoli? Chevron, which is an American oil company, is still operating in Venezuela. That's right, Natalie. The reality is a lot more complex. than the narrative that the Trump administration is attempting to put forward. During that last wave of nationalization, not all American companies have left. Some have stayed and the biggest one being Chevron. It's negotiated with the Solan governments and the deal that they have worked out both with Nicholas Maduro and the government of the United States allows them to produce all the oil from the fields that it operates in Venezuela and give back half of that oil to Venezuelan government and export the rest to the United States.政策矛盾与地缘政治考量
一家公司的想法是，他们愿意忍受这个暂时的亏损或利润减少时期，以换取在委内瑞拉政府更迭后公司可能获得的巨大利益。委内瑞拉拥有世界最大的石油储量，雪佛龙将处于受益地位。有趣的是，一方面美国政策是给马杜罗政权施加最大压力，另一方面却通过允许雪佛龙将其石油交还给政府来支持该政权。
Original English
Mhm. The thinking of a company has been that they're willing to swallow this temporary period of losses or reduced profits for the eventual bounty that awaits the company in the event of a government change in Venezuela. Venezuela is sitting on top of the world's largest oil reserves and Chevron would be in a position to benefit from that. It is interesting that piece of this that on the one hand US policy has been to put maximum pressure on the Maduro regime and yet on the other they are kind of propping up the regime by allowing Chevron to give its oil back to the government.战略不一致与中国因素
嗯，这确实是美国当前对委内瑞拉政策的矛盾之处。美国明确意图要让马杜罗资金枯竭，最好迫使其谈判，甚至下台。另一方面，美国非常担心委内瑞拉的能源资产在混乱时期落入中国手中。因此，它选择让雪佛龙继续在那里运作，继续创收，继续支持委内瑞拉政府，因为它担心如果雪佛龙离开，那些油田将落入中国手中。这种政策的明显矛盾使得任何人很难理解接下来委内瑞拉会发生什么。
Original English
Well, it goes to be hard to be inconsistency of American policy towards Minnesota right now. There's a clear intention to starve Maduro of funds to to force them to negotiate at best and leave power at wars. On the other hand, US is very preoccupied with Venezuela's energy asset fall into Chinese hands in case of chaos in the country. Right? So it has chosen to keep Chevron working there, continue earning revenues, continue propping up Venezuelan governments because it is concerned that if Chevron were to leave, those oil fields would fall into Chinese hands. And the clear contradictions of this policy makes it very difficult for anyone to understand what will happen in Venezuela next.对经济和民众的冲击
自油轮被扣押以来，委内瑞拉石油出口已大幅骤降。这是该国迄今为止最大的收入来源。我们不知道这将产生何种政治影响，但我们知道这将对委内瑞拉经济以及委内瑞拉人民产生非常负面的影响。Natalie 和大多数委内瑞拉人民都讨厌马杜罗，希望他下台。去年大选中超过 70% 的人投票反对他，他们渴望看到国家发生政治变革。对于特朗普采用的这种“震惊和畏惧”策略，许多人表示支持。他们愿意忍受一些经济痛苦，只要能让马杜罗在任的时间缩短。
Original English
Since the start of seizures of tankers, Venezuelan oil exports have plummeted. This is by far the biggest source of revenue for the country. And we don't know what political effect this is going to have, but we know that this is going to have a very negative effect on Venezuelan economy and by extension on Venezuelan people. Most people in Minnesota and Natalie dislike Maduro. They want him gone. More than 70% of them voted against him in last year's election and they would love to see political change in the country. And this current shock and awe strategy employed by Trump, many support it. They are prepared to put up with some economic pain if it means Maduro live in office in any meaningful amount of time.经济复苏受阻与民众担忧
目前委内瑞拉的担忧和焦虑在于，如果马杜罗能够挺过这次打击，能够适应，那么委内瑞拉人民将不得不生活在一个贫困、落后、孤立的经济体中。这可能会让他们境况更糟。是的，这可能会让他们境况更糟。请记住，Natalie，这个国家刚刚开始摆脱另一次极其严重的经济危机——这场危机是由马杜罗糟糕的经济政策和腐败造成的，但美国制裁加剧了危机。过去几年，生活有所好转，政府放松了经济管制，取消了许多阻碍经济活动的控制。人们可以喘息、工作、投资，并看到回报。而特朗普的这次新的施压行动正在打乱所有这些计划。
Original English
The worry, the anxiety in Venezuela right now is that if Maduro withstands this current blow, if he manages to adapt, then the fear is that Venezuelans will be stuck living in an impoverished, poor, isolated economy. It could leave them worse off. Actually, it could leave them worse off. And remember, Natalie, that this country has just been beginning to emerge from another extremely deep economic crisis which was caused by Maduro's terrible economic policies and corruption, but was aggravated by American sanctions. And life has become a little bit easier in the last few years. The the government has liberalized the economy, took away many of the currency and price control that have been hubbling economic activity. People could breathe, people could work, they could invest a little bit, they could see the return on their investment. And this new pressure campaign by Trump is scrambling all these plans.马杜罗政府的反应与美国策略
马杜罗政府内部充满了难以置信和焦虑。他们仍在努力弄清楚究竟发生了什么，以及如何应对。船只不敢驶往委内瑞拉，纷纷掉头，不愿装载委内瑞拉原油。它们停泊在港口，因为害怕被扣押。石油必须被抽出，必须持续运出。陆地储存空间有限，不知道如何处理。有人呼吁扣押部分油轮作为储存设施。有人建议可能在油轮上部署武装士兵，护送它们前往中国。委内瑞拉的炮艇已经在委内瑞拉水域护送油轮。有人呼吁扩大护航范围，让这些炮艇进入国际水域，这无疑会增加与美国海军发生冲突的风险。目前，委内瑞拉政府内部正处于极度紧张和恐惧之中。
Original English
And inside of Maduro administration is disbelief and anxiety. They are still scrambling to figure out what exactly is happening, how they can react to it. Ships are afraid to come to Venezuela. They turning around. They are unwilling to take Venezuelan crude. They are sitting in ports because they afraid of being seized and the oil has to be pumped. The oil has to keep coming on the ground. The soil doesn't have a lot of storage. It doesn't know what to do with it. There are calls to seize some of the tankers and use them as storage facilities. There are calls to maybe put armed soldiers on top of the tankers and left them accompany all the way to China. Venezuela's gunboats have already been escorting tankers inside Venezuelan waters. they are calls to maybe expand them and let these gunboats go into international waters. Of course, increasing the risk of confrontation with US military. It's a period of extreme tension and extreme fear inside Venezuelan government right now.经济施压与政权更迭的算盘
特朗普政府的逻辑是否是，通过实施总统所谓的“封锁”，制造委内瑞拉国内的恶劣条件，迫使委内瑞拉人民发动起义，或者让马杜罗自愿放弃权力？这就是他们的目标吗？这就是他们的算盘。在过去几周，我们看到特朗普政府官员越来越明确地表达他们的目标。白宫办公厅主任 Susie Biles 表示，美国将继续炸毁船只，直到马杜罗屈服。国土安全部秘书 Christine Owen 在福克斯新闻上表示，马杜罗必须下台。他们的算盘是，经济压力和痛苦将使马杜罗的执政地位难以为继，从而导致内部起义，或由军方派系发动政变，要求他下台或将其清除。
Original English
And is the Trump administration's logic here that essentially by imposing what the president has called a blockade, by creating such terrible conditions inside Venezuela, the US either prompts an uprising by the Venezuelan people or Maduro just voluntarily leaves and gives up power. Is that what they're after? That is the calculation. In the last few weeks, we have seen Trump officials becoming increasingly explicit about their aims. Susie Biles, the White House chief of staff, said that the US is going to keep blowing up boats until Maduro cries uncle. Christine Owen, the Homeland Security Secretary said on Fox News that Maduro needs to be gone. The calculation is that the economic pressure, economic pain is going to make Maduro's holding power untenable. That is going to lead to an internal uprising, an internal coup by factions of the military that will ask him to leave or eliminate him.历史先例与经济压力的局限性
你认为这会奏效吗？因为我知道你是一位拉丁美洲历史的研究者。美国多年来一直在对马杜罗进行经济挤压。例如，古巴已经在美国的禁运下度过了半个多世纪，但其共产主义政府仍然掌权。没错。经济压力导致政权更迭的历史先例很少。政府会适应，当经济萎缩时，人们会更加依赖政府，而不是疏远它。政府掌握着不断缩小的蛋糕中更大的份额。你知道，我在俄罗斯长大。那里也有一个轶事。一个小女孩走在回家的路上，偶然遇到了她醉酒的父亲，她对他说：“爸爸，我听说伏特加涨价了。这意味着你以后会少喝酒吗？”他回答说：“不，宝贝。这意味着你以后会少吃饭。”我认为这个类比很适用于委内瑞拉。
Original English
And what's your sense of whether that will actually work? Because you, I know, are a student of Latin American history. The US has been squeezing Maduro economically for years now. And Cuba, for example, has been under a US embargo for more than a half century. The communist government is still holding on to power. That's right. There are few historical precedents for when economic pressure leads to regime change. Governments adapt and when economy shrinks, people become more dependent on the government, not less. Government is holding a bigger share of a shrinking pie. You know, I grew up in Russia. There's an also anecdote. You know, a a school girl is is walking home and stumbles upon her drunken father and she says to him, "Daddy, I heard that vodka is getting more expensive. Does that mean that you're going to be drinking less?" And he goes, "No, sweetie. It means you're going to be eating less." And and I think this analogy applies well to Venezuela.移民危机与政策矛盾
苏联人确实有最好的轶事。Anatoli，你还让我注意到，当你从经济上挤压一个国家时，一个显而易见的结果是，遭受苦难的人们会试图离开，他们会移民。这也是特朗普政府真正不想看到发生的事情，对吧？绝对是。我们又回到了之前讨论过的这项政策的矛盾之处。特朗普政府的首要目标是阻止移民涌入美国，但与此同时，它却在急剧恶化委内瑞拉的经济状况。如果这种情况继续下去，将导致该国移民数量再次增加，给委内瑞拉的邻国带来压力，并促使一些人向北前往美国。这一点，马杜罗政府一直说得很清楚：推翻其政权的行动只会制造经济危机和政治不稳定，从而导致新的移民危机。
Original English
Wow. The Soviets really do have the best anecdotes. I'm also struck anati by the obvious thing that happens when you squeeze a country economically which is that people who are suffering try to leave it they migrate which is another thing the Trump administration really doesn't want to see happen right absolutely and and again we're coming back to the contradictions of this policy that we have talked about earlier the Trump administration's overarching goal is to stop the flow of migrants to the United States at the same time it is dramatically worsening economic conditions in Venezuela, which if it continues is going to lead to another increase in migration from the country is going to put pressure on Venezuela's neighbors and it's going to lead some of people to head north towards the United States. And this is a point that the Maduro government has been making very clear that the campaign to topple it from power is only going to create an economic crisis and political instability that's going to lead to a new migration crisis in the country.外交解决方案的可能性
我们之前谈论船只打击时，Anatoli，你曾提到政府内部有一个派系在推动外交途径，寻求谈判，这可能让美国达成协议，并摆脱当前的升级行动。那么，在扣押这些石油油轮之后，这是否仍然是一个选项？这是一个关键问题。这也是我关注的焦点，因为新闻头条很戏剧化，前所未有。但在这戏剧性事件的背后，似乎确实存在一个潜在的外交解决方案。特朗普声称马杜罗窃取了美国石油，欺骗了美国公司，美国要回自己的石油。当然，马杜罗在今年春天早些时候的谈判中已经向特朗普提供了委内瑞拉的石油。两国政府已非常接近达成一项协议，该协议将大幅增加美国在委内瑞拉的石油投资，委内瑞拉将开放市场，基本上将其石油流从中国转向美国，并向美国公司和投资开放。
Original English
When we talked about the boat strikes a while ago, Anatoli, you had mentioned that there was this faction inside of the administration that was pushing for a diplomatic route, for a negotiation that might give the US a deal and a way out of this escalation, this campaign. Is that still an option here with now the seizures of these oil tankers? That is a crucial question. That is what I'm focused on because the the headlines are dramatic. The headlines unprecedented. But underneath these dramatic events actually appears to be a potential diplomatic solution. Trump is saying that Maduro has stolen American oil, that he has defrauded American companies, that America wants its oil back. And of course, Maduro has already offered Trump Venezuelan oil during an earlier round of negotiations that took place in the spring of this year. The two governments have come pretty close to an agreement that would see a massive increase of American oil investment in the country and the country opening up and basically redirecting its flow of oil from China to the United States and opening up to American companies, American investments.美国控制石油储量的地缘政治利益
这实际上会给美国带来什么好处？你能否详细说明一下，美国在潜在控制委内瑞拉石油储量方面能获得什么？这将使美国能够控制世界已知最大的石油储量，进而意味着美国可以控制石油供应，控制全球油价，并通过操纵石油市场来奖励盟友、惩罚对手。好的，这是地缘政治利益。绝对是。地缘政治利益。对美国而言，还有一个更大、更根本的利益。控制世界最大的石油储量将使美国能够实现其计划，即成为美洲的主导力量，将中国、俄罗斯和伊朗等对手驱逐出该地区，并主导该国的政治和经济环境。
Original English
And what benefit would that actually give the United States? Can you just walk us through what the US actually gets out of potentially controlling Venezuelan oil reserves? It would give United States control over the world's largest known oil reserves, which in turn means that the US can control the supply of oil, can control the global oil prices, and can reward its allies and punish its adversaries by manipulating the oil market. Okay. So, geopolitical benefit. Absolutely. Geopolitical benefit. And there's a bigger, more fundamental benefit for the United States. Control of the world's largest oil reserves would allow United States to follow through of its plan of becoming the dominant player in the Americas of expelling its adversaries, China, Russia, and Iran from a region and dominating the country's political and economic environment.中俄的反应与势力范围承认
是的。我们看到特朗普政府在其发布的国家安全战略文件中明确承认，其外交政策的目标是建立美国作为西半球的主导力量。那么，俄罗斯对此有何反应？到目前为止，中国一直站在一边，它刚刚与美国达成了一项重要的贸易协议，这对中国经济至关重要，并且它在与美国发生争执时非常谨慎。我们看到了中国资产被扣押以及针对油轮的行动。中国已发表声明谴责这些扣押，但未采取进一步行动。俄罗斯也做出了一些口头支持的姿态，但并未超越这一点。我们没有看到马杜罗的盟友以任何有意义的方式前来援助。
Original English
Yeah. And we've seen the Trump administration explicitly acknowledge that that is the goal of its foreign policy in this recent document that it put out its national security strategy to establish itself, the United States as the predominant power in the Western Hemisphere. So how are Russia responding to this? So far standing on the sidelines of course China has just sealed a major trade deal with United States which is crucial to its economy and it's been very careful about what fights picks with United States. We have seen the seizure of Chinese property in the actions taken against tankers. China has issued a statement condemning these seizures but has not taken any further action. Russia as well has made some gestures of uh verbal support but has not moved beyond that. We have not seen Maduro's allies come to its aid in any meaningful way.弱势与世界观下的势力范围划分
我们基本上看到的是，美国的对手承认拉丁美洲是美国的势力范围。他们为什么要这样做？为什么他们不更强有力地站出来保卫委内瑞拉，反对美国这种理论上会扩大美国力量的行为？部分原因是相对弱势。他们有其他更重要的事情要处理。当然，俄罗斯正在乌克兰进行一场大规模战争。中国正面临经济放缓。他们有更重要的事情要做。但特朗普的行动也符合该国（指美国）的基本世界观，即世界大国、地区大国有权主宰其邻国。对俄罗斯而言，马杜罗的失势可以被接受，以换取美国承认其在东欧捍卫自身利益的权利。这很有趣。听起来，这两大强国基本上接受了将世界划分为势力范围的做法，这对它们自己也很有利。是的，所谓的“多极化世界”一直是普京多年来一直在谈论的话题，但西方媒体和政策制定者在很大程度上忽视了它。而特朗普的行动正在将这个世界变为现实。
Original English
We have basically seen America's adversary acknowledging Latin America as a sphere of American influence. Why would they do that? Why aren't they coming out more forcefully in defense of Venezuela and against this action by the US which theoretically would expand American power? Part of it is a position of relative weakness. They are preoccupied elsewhere. Of course, Russia is fighting a massive war in Ukraine. China is dealing with economic slowdown. They have bigger fish to fry. But Trump's actions also fit into this country's fundamental worldview which basically sees world powers, regional powers having a right to dominate their neighbors. And for Russia, the loss of Maduro is an acceptable cause for American acknowledgement that it has rights to defend its interest in Eastern Europe. It's fascinating. It sounds like basically an acceptance by these two great powers that yes, carving up the world into spheres of influence works well for them, too. Yeah. The so-called multipolar world has been something that Putin has been talking about for for years and you know it was sort of largely ignored by western media by western policy makers and Trump's actions uh bringing this world into reality.军事行动与外交退路
Anatoli，根据你所说的一切，你认为我们看到在委内瑞拉地面发生军事行动的可能性，比在油轮被扣押之前是更大还是更小？因为我认为所有这些针对委内瑞拉的行动，对于不希望看到战争的人来说，确实令人担忧。我们已经看到几十艘船被炸毁，美国航空母舰和其他军舰被部署在委内瑞拉周围。我们不断听到特朗普对地面打击持开放态度。总而言之，我们看到的是军事局势在升级还是在降温？谈论降温可能有些讽刺，因为油轮正在公海上被扣押，并在加勒比海被追逐。当然，美国也在继续增加在该地区的军事存在。但或许，矛盾的是，我们正在看到某种程度的降温。我们看到，船只打击的重点已从委内瑞拉转移到东太平洋地区，而那里才是大部分可卡因被贩运的地方。我们一方面看到对马杜罗的经济压力在升级，以观察这种经济冲击是否足以推翻他。但另一方面，我们看到了一个潜在的“退场坡道”（offramp）的出现，一个潜在的外交协议，该协议将允许马杜罗确保其政治运动的生存，以换取将该国的自然财富交给美国。
Original English
Anatoli, given everything you've told us, do you think we're more likely or less likely to see military action on the ground in Venezuela than we were before the seizures of the tankers started? Because I think all of this action against Venezuela is really concerning for people who don't want to see a war. We've now seen dozens of boats blown up, American aircraft carriers, and other warships kind of positioned around Venezuela. We keep hearing that Trump is open to land strikes. Bottom line, are we seeing this ratchet up or cool off militarily? It it is quite ironic talking about cooling off as tankers are being seized on high seas and being chased throughout the Caribbean. And of course, the US continues to build up its military presence in the region. But paradoxically, perhaps, we are seeing a a certain ramp down of the escalations. H we have seen the focus of the boat strikes move towards the eastern Pacific away from Venezuela an area where actually most of the cocaine is being trafficked and we are seeing on one hand an escalation of economic pressure of Maduro to see whether this economic shock is going to be enough to topple Maduro from power. On the other hand, however, we are seeing the emergence of a potential offramp of a potential diplomatic deal which would allow Maduro to ensure the survival of his political movements in return for handing the country's natural wealth to the United States.📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Natalie Kitro, Anatoli Kmanay, Donald Trump, Nicolas Maduro, Marco Rubio, Steven Miller, Ugo Chavez, Vladimir Putin
公司/组织: New York Times, Trump administration, US military, US government, US Coast Guard, Chevron, Venezuela State Oil Company, Axen Mobile, Kanoko Phillips, White House, Fox News, Supreme Court, National Guard
媒体/书籍: Truth Social