这里是《纽约时报》，我是蕾切尔·亚伯拉罕斯（Rachel Abrams），这是《每日新闻》（The Daily）。
英文原文
From the New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams and this is the Daily.大约在与伊朗开战一个月左右，当时汽油还是每加仑 3.99 美元，《每日新闻》制作人安娜·弗利（Anna Foley）前往佛罗里达州，与一位加油站老板聊了聊加油机上的油价对他本人以及他的顾客来说感受如何。
英文原文
About a month into the war with Iran, back when gas was at $3.99 a gallon, daily producer Anna Foley headed to Florida to talk to a gas station owner about how prices at the pump were feeling both for him and his customers.我真希望这事下周就能结束，然后我能回到每加仑 2.79 美元。那可就太棒了。我无比期盼这只是暂时的，不会持续太久。不过，是啊，我确实很担心高油价的持久性。
英文原文
I would love for this to be over next week and I go back to 279 a gallon. That'd be awesome. I hope beyond hope that it is temporary and it does not last long. But yeah, I I do worry about the longevity of high prices.那是在三月份。但最近，有些出人意料地，[音乐] 那位加油站老板卡姆·朱迪（Cam Judy）又联系了我们。
英文原文
>> That was back in March. But recently, and somewhat unexpectedly, [music] that gas station owner, Cam Judy, reached out to us again.喂。
英文原文
>> Hello.嘿，卡姆。
英文原文
>> Hey, Cam.嘿，安娜。你最近怎么样？
英文原文
>> Hey, Anna. How you doing?他有最新的情况。几天前你给我发短信，是因为你在自家的加油机那儿看到了一件有点疯狂的事。所以，我就是想知道发生了什么。跟我讲讲这事吧。
英文原文
>> He had an update. So, a few days ago, you texted me because of this kind of wild thing you were seeing happen at your pumps. So, I just want to know what happened. Tell me the story.好。我当时查了油价，我相信那是周三。我一直工作到下午三点左右，就是查查油价，看看情况如何，一切看起来都还正常。我当时——
英文原文
>> Yeah. So, I checked the gas prices. I believe it was Wednesday. I was working until around 3:00 in the afternoon just checking the prices and see what was going on and everything seemed normal. I was你在哪儿查的？
英文原文
>> Where were you checking them?我在 Gas Buddy 上查的，查各个加油站，看看大家的定价是多少。我当时的普通汽油价格是每加仑 3.99 美元。
英文原文
>> I was checking them on Gas Buddy, the the different gas stations, see what everybody was priced at. I was sitting at $3.99 a gallon for regular gas.然后，呃，第二天我开门营业，正在跟我的啤酒分销商聊天，
英文原文
>> And uh the next day I opened the gas station and I was talking to my beer distributor他就说：“卡姆，你这儿油价多少了？”我说：“我这儿还是 3.99。”他就说：“哇，我来这儿路上路过的所有其他加油站，今天早上全涨到 4.19 了。”我当时就觉得：“不可能。不可能。昨天还是 3.99 呢。”
英文原文
>> and he was like, "What's your gas at, Cam?" And I said, "I'm still at 3.99." And he's like, "Wow, all all the other gas stations I passed by on the way in here all went to 419 this morning." And I was like, "There's no way. There's no way. It was 3.99 yesterday."哇。那可是一夜之间价格跳涨了 20 美分。那真是挺，呃，那真是挺疯狂的。挺让人震惊的。而且我——我本来不相信他，直到 [清嗓子] 我再次查了我周围和附近的加油站。果不其然，每一家加油站的普通汽油全都是 4.19 美元。我说：“哇，我——我想我真得，呃，尽管我很不想这么做，我也得每加仑涨 20 美分了。”
英文原文
>> Wow. That's a a a 20 cent jump in price overnight. That's pretty uh that's pretty crazy. It's pretty shocking. And I I didn't believe him until [clears throat] I again I checked the gas stations in and around me. And sure enough, every single one of them was at $4.19 for regular gasoline. I said, "Wow, I I guess I really need to uh as much as I don't want to, I got to go up 20 cents a gallon."是啊。顾客注意到了吗？他们对你说了什么？
英文原文
>> Yeah. Did customers notice? And what did they say to you?噢，是的。噢，是的。我是说，每个——每个人嘴里说出的同一句话就是：“这油价到底是怎么回事？”
英文原文
>> Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. I mean, the the one phrase out of every everybody's mouths were just, "What's going on with these gas prices?"上次你们来这儿的时候，当然，中东地区那边的冲突才刚刚爆发。当时——当时，呃，这在新闻里非常突出。大家都在谈论这件事，我想在当时这也算是意料之中的事。好吧，我们——我们这儿爆发战争了。有冲突在发生。是啊，我们会看到油——油价大涨，但是那边的战争和冲突最近其实并没有被过多讨论了。新闻里有其他事情在发生，人们都在讨论别的。人们有点淡忘了。而对我来说最难受的部分在于，我就是——我没有答案。究竟具体是什么导致了在 24 小时内涨了 20 美分？我只是希望，甚至不是以一个企业主的身份，而是作为一个普通的老百姓，我想知道 [音乐] 原因。
英文原文
>> When you guys came down here last time, of course, the the conflict over in the Middle East area had just started. It was it was uh it was very prominent in the news. Everybody was talking about it, and it was kind of expected, I think, back then. Okay, we got a we got a war going on. There's conflict going on. Yeah, we're going to see a big jump in gas gas prices, but the war and the conflict over there hasn't really been talked much about lately. There's other stuff going on in the news that people are talking about. People kind of forgot. And that's kind of the hardest part for me is I just I don't have an answer. What specifically caused a 20 cent increase in a period of 24 hours? I just wish as as just not even as a business owner, as a regular average Joe citizen, I would like to know [music] why.我想很多我的顾客也想知道原因。
英文原文
And I think a lot of my customers would also like to know why.油价飙升的背后推手
所以 [音乐] 在今天的节目中，我们试图回答卡姆的问题：是什么在推动 [音乐] 石油价格上涨？我与同事薇薇安·内里姆（Vivian Nerim）就不断扩大的伊朗战争以及为什么全球各地的加油机都在感受到其连锁反应展开了交谈。
英文原文
So [music] today on the show, we attempt to answer Cam's question, what is driving [music] rising oil prices? I speak with my colleague Vivian Nerim about the expanding Iran war and why its ripple effects are being felt at pumps around the world.今天是 9 月 17 日，星期四。
英文原文
It's Thursday, September 17th.薇薇安，欢迎回到节目中。感谢邀请我。我们在《每日新闻》一直与佛罗里达州的这位加油站老板保持着联系，我敢肯定他绝不是唯一一个对自己目前所见感到困惑的人。他和我们很多人都明白，对霍尔木兹海峡的这种卡脖子封锁导致了油价飙升。就像在战争进行到这个阶段，我们所有人都明白了这一点。但是美国和伊朗现在已经陷入僵局数月之久。所以我们向你请教，请你向我们解释一下实地究竟发生了什么，能帮助解释这一突然的物价飙升。是啊。我现在是在沙特阿拉伯利雅得跟你通话。沙特阿拉伯长期以来一直是全球最大的石油出口国。你知道，如果你想撬动石油价格，你就会看向沙特阿拉伯。而在此之前，沙特阿拉伯在很大程度上一直处于这场战争的边缘地带。是的，它曾遭到袭击。是的，局势过去十分令人担忧。但与此同时，它遭受打击的程度并没有像波斯湾以东的一些国家那样严重，比如阿拉伯联合酋长国、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林。你知道，坦白讲，我和许多其他人坐在这里都有点纳闷，为什么伊朗要针对所有这些其他国家，而在某种程度上对沙特阿拉伯有所手软。
英文原文
Vivian, welcome back to the show. Thanks for having me. So, we here at the Daily have been in touch with this gas station owner in Florida who I am sure is not the only person who's sort of confused by what he's seeing right now. He and many of us understand that this strangle hold on the straight of Hormuz has sent gas prices soaring. Like we all get that by this point in the war. But the US and Iran have been in a stalemate for months now. So we're turning to you to explain to us what has happened on the ground that can help explain this sudden surge in prices. Yeah. So I'm talking to you from Riyad, Saudi Arabia. And Saudi Arabia has for a long time been the world's largest exporter of oil. You know, if you want to move oil prices, you look to Saudi Arabia. And up until this point, Saudi Arabia has largely been on the sidelines of this war. Yes, it was getting attacked. Yes, things were quite concerning. But at the same time, it wasn't getting hit as hard as some of the states east of the Persian Gulf, like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain. You know, I and a lot of other people were kind of sitting here wondering why, to be honest, why was Iran targeting all of these other states and kind of easing up a bit on Saudi Arabia.在过去的几个星期里，这一切都变了。
英文原文
>> In the past few weeks, all of that has changed.基本上，情况已经变得非常明朗：这种情况此前没有发生、该国没有像其他海湾国家那样遭受猛烈袭击的原因之一，就是伊朗其实一直握着这张牌，等待时机打出来。而基本上那就是现在发生的事情。现在他们决定打出这张牌了。那么那张牌是什么，薇薇安？给我们拆解一下吧。也就是沙特阿拉伯，它与伊朗正好隔海湾相望。由于其地理位置和历史渊源，他们在伊朗战争期间成功找到了一个变通办法，从另一个出口点把石油运出去。好的。因此，虽然位于沙特阿拉伯东侧、靠近伊朗的霍尔木兹海峡基本上被扼死封锁了，但沙特阿拉伯很久以前就修建了一条横跨整个王国的巨大输油管道。而修建这个当时只是为了应对某种可能发生的情况。也许有朝一日我们会需要这个。于是这条输油管道的时刻突然到来了。他们开始通过这条管道尽可能多地将石油由陆路输送到红海，以便通过这种方式运往其全球客户。所以他们拥有其他海湾国家都没有的这种变通办法。其结果是，该王国对全球市场的石油供应受到的影响远小于其他国家。但过去几周基本上这一切都改变了，因为伊朗在也门的盟友，呃，开始把注意力集中在那条路线上，基本上试图切断那条路线。好的。那么具体讲讲实际上发生了什么。
英文原文
>> Essentially, it's become very clear that one of the reasons that this wasn't happening, that the country wasn't being attacked as heavily as the other Gulf states, is that Iran was kind of holding this card and waiting to play it. And that that is what has happened now essentially. Now they've decided to play that card. And what is that card, Vivian? Just unspool that for us. So Saudi Arabia, it's just on the other side of the Gulf from Iran. And they managed to find a workaround during the Iran war because of their geography, because of their history to get their oil out from another exit point. Okay. So while the straight of Hormuz which is on sort of the eastern side of Saudi Arabia close to Iran was essentially choked off, Saudi Arabia had built a long time ago this gigantic oil pipeline that stretches all the way across the kingdom. And this had just been built as a sort of eventuality. Maybe someday we'll need this. And it suddenly became the moment for this oil pipeline. They started pushing as much of their oil as they could overland through this pipeline to the Red Sea to get it out to their global customers that way. So they had this workound that none of the other Gulf states had. And as a result, the kingdom supply of oil to global markets was much less affected than the other countries. But all of that changed over the past few weeks essentially as Iran's ally uh in Yemen began focusing its attention on that route and essentially seeking to cut off that route. Okay. So fill in the specifics of what has actually happened.胡塞武装与也门内战
好的。所以你在这里真正需要了解的组织就是胡塞武装（Houthis），他们是伊朗在也门的盟友。
英文原文
>> Right. So the group that you really need to understand here is the Houthis which are an Iranian ally in Yemen.[音乐] 胡塞武装最初是也门北部的一种乌合之众式的宗教运动，从 2014 年开始，他们逐渐成为日益重要的掌权玩家。[音乐] 在也门那场极其复杂、可以说是失败的“阿拉伯之春”转型之后，胡塞武装席卷了也门首都萨那，并将其占领。他们基本上击溃了也门国际公认的政府，将他们赶出了该城市，随后又继续把他们往也门更南边一步步驱赶。
英文原文
[music] So the Houthies started out as this kind of ragtag religious movement in northern Yemen and they became these increasingly important power players starting in 2014. [music] In the aftermath of this really complicated failed sort of Arab Spring transition in Yemen, the Houthies swept into Sana, the capital of Yemen, and they took it over. They essentially routed the internationally recognized government of Yemen, pushed them out of the city, and then continued to actually push them farther and farther south in Yemen.这引发了一场极其残酷而漫长折磨的内战，沙特阿拉伯在 2015 年介入其中并带来了相当灾难性的后果，[音乐]
英文原文
That set off this really brutal and grinding civil war in which Saudi Arabia intervened to pretty disastrous consequences in 2015 [music]去对抗胡塞武装
英文原文
>> to fight the Houthis去对抗胡塞武装，并试图恢复国际公认的政府。沙特阿拉伯是也门的北部邻国。他们与也门有着漫长且缺乏管控的边界。他们基本上是看着胡塞武装——这支由伊朗支持的民兵武装——占领边境上的领土，感到相当紧张。因此，他们开始在也门发起这场灾难性的轰炸行动，试图支持政府并基本上赶走胡塞武装。所以这两方打得非常激烈。这演变成了一场极其碎片化、复杂的内战，随后在 2022 年签署休战协议时达到了一种僵局。这项协议由联合国支持，从那时起战斗基本上平息了下来。
英文原文
>> to fight the Houthis and to try to restore the internationally recognized government. So Saudi Arabia is Yemen's northern neighbor. They have this long poorest border with Yemen. And they were essentially looking at the Houthis, this militia that's backed by Iran, taking over territory on their border and getting quite nervous. So they began this disastrous bombing campaign in Yemen to try to back the government and to essentially push out the Houthis. So those two sides were fighting really fiercely. It became this really kind of fragmented, complicated civil war and then it reached a sort of stalemate in 2022 when a truce was signed. This was backed by the United Nations and fighting had largely quieted down since then.但是胡塞武装感到受挫。他们非常希望达成某种形式的政治协议，以承认他们在也门的权力，并让他们能够获得石油资源——由于他们所控制的领土原因，他们目前并没有这些资源。因此他们面临着必须采取行动的政治压力，而这就是伊朗战争某种程度上降临该地区并引爆一切的背景。
英文原文
>> But the Houthis were frustrated. They really wanted to reach some form of political agreement that would recognize their power in Yemen and that would give them access to oil resources which they do not have right now because of the territory that they control. So they were under political pressure to do something and this was sort of the backdrop in which the Iran war kind of arrived in the region and and blew everything up.好的。在伊朗，
英文原文
>> Okay. In Iran,与此同时，一直存在着这样一个派系，其影响力不断扩大，并且一直在施压要求在与美国的战争中升级行动。对吧？这场战争已经拖延了6个月，看不到明确的终点。伊朗的这群人，这群官员，这群领导人——
英文原文
meanwhile, there had beenthis faction that was gaining increasing
leverage that had been pressing to
escalate in in the war with the US.
Right? The war has been dragging on for
6 months. There's no clear end in sight.
and this sort of group in Iran, group of
of officials, group of leaders,
强硬派，我们之前在节目里谈过他们。是的。
英文原文
>> the hardliners, we talked about them onthe show before. Yeah.
是的。他们希望通过对全球经济、全球能源市场施加越来越大的压力，借此对特朗普施加越来越大的压力。因此，在胡塞武装追求自身利益、并对也门当地的政治局势感到日益受挫的同时，他们在伊朗的幕后支持者也有升级事态的诉求。所以胡塞武装与他们在伊朗的盟友及支持者之间，确实存在着一种利益的相互契合。
英文原文
>> Yeah. Wanted to place sort of increasingpressure on Trump via increasing
pressure on the global economy, global
energy markets. So, at the same time
that the Houthis have their own
interests that they're pursuing and are
feeling increasingly frustrated with the
political situation on the ground in
Yemen, their backers in Iran have an
interest to escalate. So there's a real
kind of collision of mutual interests
between the Houthis and their allies and
backers in Iran.
那么薇薇安，这在当地具体是如何演变的？给我们解释一下。
英文原文
>> And how is that played out on the groundexactly, Vivian? Just explain that to
us.
红海海岸与曼德海峡的军事升级
这段情况很复杂，在过去的几个月里，沙特阿拉伯与胡塞武装之间确实出现过几个局势真正升级的导火索，但其中一个极其关键的节点是在7月，当时胡塞武装宣布对沙特阿拉伯实施海上封锁，并实质上声称：“我们不会让任何沙特船只穿过红海。”在这场封锁发起之后，你可以看到沙特阿拉伯决定开始反击，但他们似乎对真正卷入一场全面战争心存警惕。于是你看到也门境内开始出现空袭。胡塞武装指责沙特阿拉伯轰炸也门。沙特阿拉伯保持沉默。也门政府则声称是自己在执行这些轰炸。你还能看到胡塞武装与沙特阿拉伯支持的也门武装力量之间的地面战斗出现实质性升级。因此，在封锁之后的这一时期，当地局势开始升温。但就目前而言，似乎没有人想过度升级。而这一切在胡塞武装上周向红海海岸推进时发生了根本改变。
英文原文
>> So it's a complicated story and there'sbeen a couple of flash points where
things have really escalated between
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis over the
past few months, but one of the really
key ones was in July when the Houthis
declared a naval blockade on Saudi
Arabia and essentially said, "We're not
going to let any Saudi ships through the
Red Sea." And after this blockade is
launched, you see Saudi Arabia decide to
start pushing back, but they seem to be
wary of actually entering a full-blown
war. So you see air strikes start
happening in Yemen. The Houthies say
Saudi Arabia is bombing Yemen. Saudi
Arabia says nothing. The Yemen
government claims that it's the ones
carrying out those bombings. And you
also see a real escalation in ground
fighting between the Houthis and Yemen
fighters who are backed by Saudi Arabia.
So things start to heat up on the ground
in this kind of period after the
blockade. But for now, nobody seems to
want to escalate too much. And that all
changes essentially when the Houthies
start pushing towards the Red Sea coast
last week.
以及新一波胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的袭击。
英文原文
>> And a new wave of Houthi attacks onSaudi Arabia.
胡塞武装占领了红海的岛屿，占领了沿红海的海岸线。
英文原文
>> The Houthis taking islands in the RedSea, taking coastline along the Red Sea.
胡塞武装现在几乎可以威胁通过也门红海海岸的任何航运。于是胡塞武装开始攻击也门领土的这些部分，这些地方本质上是通往曼德海峡的大门，这个极其重要的海峡位于红海的入口处。显然他们一直在不断推进。但有一段时间，看起来这会是一场持久战，需要耗费一些时间，沙特阿拉伯也会进行反击。然而，这一切在周四和周五突然崩溃了，政府军士兵以极快的速度撤退。胡塞武装基本上夺取了沿红海的大片领土，那是也门最具战略意义和最重要的地产，并最终控制了曼德海峡——
英文原文
>> The Houthis can now threaten almost anyshipping passing Yemen's Red Sea coast.
So the Houthis start assailing these
parts of Yemeni territory that are
essentially the gateway to the Babel
Mandabub Strait, this very important
strait at the opening of the Red Sea.
And it's clear that they're pushing and
pushing. But for a time it seemed like
this was going to be a battle. It was
going to take a while. Saudi Arabia was
going to fight back. And then suddenly
all of that crumbled on Thursday and
Friday and government soldiers were
retreating incredibly rapidly. and the
Houthies essentially seized this vast
swath of territory along the Red Sea
that is Yemen's most strategic and
important real estate and ended up in
control of the Baband Strait
所以，这不仅对也门重要，正如你所说，他们基本上夺占了沙特阿拉伯自开战以来一直用来协助出口石油的变通路径。
英文原文
>> and so and not just for important forYemen but as you said they basically
seized this workaround that Saudi Arabia
had that was helping it export its oil
since the start of the war.
是的。胡塞武装此前能够从他们原有的领土向红海发动袭击，但这让他们获得了对该海峡更为直接的控制权。雪上加霜的是，就在周五，也就是胡塞武装接管所有这些使他们扼守关键海峡的领土的同一天，沙特阿拉伯宣布，其一直依赖用来出口石油的关键陆上管道遭到袭击，他们不得不将其关闭。
英文原文
>> Yes. So the Houthis were able to launchattacks in the Red Sea from the
territory that they previously had, but
this gives them much more direct control
over the strait. And then to make
matters so much worse, on Friday, the
same day that the Houthis have taken
over all of this territory that puts
them on this key straight, Saudi Arabia
announces that the crucial crossland
pipeline that it has been relying upon
to export oil has been attacked and that
they have to shut it down.
[音乐]
英文原文
>> [music]这条东西走向的管道横跨沙特阿拉伯全境。那曾是某种替代方案。想着如果海峡发生意外，你看，我们还有这条宽大的管道。然而现在它在多处遭到袭击。[音乐] 它瘫痪了。这两个海峡都被伊朗及其武装分子所控制。
英文原文
>> The east west pipeline is what goesacross Saudi Arabia. That was sort of
the workaround. Okay. If something
happens with the straits, we got this,
you know, big wide pipeline. Well, now
it's been hit in multiple points. It's
[music] out. The two straits are
controlled by Iran and its militants.
截至目前，基本上阿拉伯半岛所有的石油出口通道都被严重阻断或彻底切断了。
英文原文
>> As of now, essentially, all of the exitsfor oil from the Arabian Peninsula have
been severely choked off or just cut
off.
[音乐] 这一切使得沙特阿拉伯基本上没有好的选择来将其石油运往全球市场。我们已经开始在全球范围内看到[音乐] 其带来的影响。[音乐]
英文原文
[music] And all of this has left SaudiArabia with basically no good options
for getting their oil to global markets.
And we're already starting to see the
[music] impact of that around the world.
[music]
沙特阿拉伯的困局与应对选项
我们马上回来。
薇薇安，你刚才告诉我们沙特阿拉伯没有好的选择来将他们的石油运出该国。那么，他们的糟糕选择都有哪些？首先要记住的是，这对沙特阿拉伯来说是一个关乎存亡的问题。整个沙特经济都依赖石油和石化产品。他们的政府预算依赖石油收入。他们支付给王室成员的开支依赖石油收入。因此，该王国的整个政治和经济体系仍然与石油紧密捆绑在一起。他们希望改变这种状况，但他们摆脱石油实现多元化、并将该王国打造成旅游和商业目的地的努力同样依赖石油收入，因为他们需要进行这些成本极高的投资。所以，如果他们想不出将石油输送到全球市场的办法，对他们来说就是一个极其严重的问题。
英文原文
We'll be right back.Vivian, you just told us that Saudi
Arabia has no good options to get their
oil out of the country. So, what are
their bad options? So, the first thing
to remember is that this is an
existential problem for Saudi Arabia.
The entire Saudi economy depends on oil
and prochemicals. Their government
budget depends on oil revenue. Their
payments to royal family members depend
on oil revenue. So the entire kind of
political and economic system of the
kingdom is still very much tied up in
oil. They want that to change, but their
efforts to diversify away from oil and
to turn the kingdom into this tourism
and business destination also depend on
oil revenue because they need to make
these investments that are quite costly.
So if they can't figure out a way to get
oil out to global markets, it's a really
serious problem for them.
好吧。那他们能做什么呢？他们的选项之一是重新与胡塞武装开战，试图在军事上迫使对方让步，而第一次这么做时结果并不怎么顺利。
英文原文
>> Okay. So what can they do? So theiroptions are one is to go back to war
with the Houthis and to try to force
them to back down militarily, which
didn't go so well the first time.
是的，出于许多不同的原因，这对他们来说是一条极不具吸引力的行动路线。他们可以采取的另一个选项是，尝试与胡塞武装达成某种外交解决方案，通过政治谈判达成一项能让胡塞武装做出退让的协议。这同样不具吸引力，因为他们与胡塞武装的谈判历史已经证明，这绝不是一个愿意轻易让步的组织。他们提出了极高要求，而且既然他们如今感到自己处于强大的优势地位并占据了上风，这些要求只会变得更加狮子大开口。
英文原文
>> Yeah, it's a very unattractive course ofaction for them for a lot of different
reasons. Another option that they could
take is to try to come to some sort of
diplomatic solution with the Houthis and
negotiate an agreement politically that
gets the Houthis to back down. That's
also unattractive because everything
that their history of negotiations with
the Houthies have shown is that this is
not a group that is ready to back down
easily. They have very maximalist
demands and those demands are only going
to get bigger now that they feel in this
position of great power and that they
have the upper hand.
所以他们肯定在考虑这个选项，但也绝对谈不上理想。并且没有任何保证能促成一项持久的协议。对吧？胡塞武装可能会在一年或两年后做出决定，实际上我们想要更多，除非你们同意我们的要求，否则你们就得重新面临战争。
英文原文
>> So they're definitely considering thatoption, but it's not ideal at all
either. And there 's no guarantee that it
leads to a sustainable agreement. Right?
the Houthies could decide in a year or
two years, actually we want more and
it's back to war for you unless you
agree to what we want.
美国的角色与考量
你知道，我们还没有谈到的一个参与方是美国。我之所以提起这一点，是因为美国既是沙特阿拉伯最强大的盟友，而且显然也是美国最初与以色列一同挑起了与伊朗的整场战争。所以我想知道，在这个时刻美国身处何方？他们此刻在协助沙特阿拉伯吗？
英文原文
>> You know, one player we have not talkedabout yet is the United States. And I
bring that up because the United States
is both Saudi Arabia's most powerful
ally and also the US obviously started
this whole war with Iran in the first
place alongside Israel. So I wonder
where is the United States in this
moment? Are they helping Saudi Arabia in
this moment?
是的。正因为沙特阿拉伯非常不情愿单打独斗重新与胡塞武装开战，如果走这条路，它极度渴望获得来自美国及其他国际伙伴的支持。而且我们确实知道，
英文原文
>> Yeah. So because Saudi Arabia is soreluctant to go back to war with the
Houthis on its own, it is very keen to
get support from the United States and
other international partners if it takes
that path. And we do know that
沙特阿拉伯王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼曾多次与特朗普政府接洽，包括就在上周，请求美国施以援手，请求美国在某种程度上加入打击胡塞武装的战斗。
英文原文
>> Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman ofSaudi Arabia has approached the Trump
administration multiple times, including
as recently as last week to ask the
United States to help, to ask the United
States to kind of join a fight against
the Houthis.
那么美国的答复是什么？据我们所知，特朗普总统拒绝了。我们在地面上没有看到任何有关美国切实加大介入的迹象。当然，存在着一些原本就基本在进行的情报共享之类的事情，但美国并没有参与空袭行动。美国似乎抱有这样一种心态：就把这事留给沙特阿拉伯自己去解决吧。你看，我可以想象美国之所以可能犹豫不愿介入的一个原因，是美国已经极度分身乏术，因为他们已经在与伊朗交战了。但从另一方面来看，沙特阿拉伯是一个极其重要的盟友，他们正在请求协助打击一支由美国敌人支持的民兵武装。那么，美国为何不愿介入呢？是的。特朗普曾发表过一些声明，暗示胡塞武装其实并不想与美国作战，他们只是想与沙特阿拉伯作战。嗯，这情况有点复杂，因为沙特阿拉伯的石油经由曼德海峡运出会对全球能源市场产生影响，进而对美国产生影响。当然。但在某种程度上按照他的说法：看，这就是这么一个组织，我们以前在某种程度上跟他们交手过，去年美国针对胡塞武装曾有过一场空袭行动，那场行动时间短暂且结局不顺。
英文原文
>> And what did the US say? As far as weknow, President Trump declined. We do
not see any evidence on the ground of,
you know, really stepped up US
involvement. There is, of course, some
intelligence sharing and other things
that were essentially already going on,
but the US is not getting involved in
air strikes. The US seems to have the
mindset of let's just leave this to
Saudi Arabia to sort out. You know, I
can imagine that one reason why the US
might be hesitant to get involved is
that the US is already really
overstretched because they are already
at war with Iran. But on the other hand,
Saudi Arabia is a really important ally
and they are asking for help against a
militia that is backed by an enemy of
the United States. So why isn't the US
willing to step in? Yeah. So Trump has
given some statements suggesting that
the Houthis don't really want to fight
the US, that they just want to fight
Saudi Arabia. Um that's a little
complicated because Saudi Arabia's oil
getting out through the Babel Mundab has
implications for global energy markets
and therefore for the United States.
Sure. But according to sort of his
telling you, look, this is a group. We
already kind of fought them. There was a
US air strike campaign against the
Houthis last year that was brief and
ill- fated.
实质上，没有人找到了针对该问题的军事解决……
英文原文
>> Essentially, no one has found a militarysolution to the
胡塞武装。他们曾与这些富裕得多、强大得多的敌人交手，而那些富裕得多、强大得多的敌人一次又一次被迫退让。因此在特朗普看来，卷入一场针对胡塞武装的战争并不是一个胜算很大的前景。薇薇安，鉴于你其实身在利雅得当地，并且在这一切发生时一直都在那里，我非常好奇。所有这些压力在现实中感觉如何？那里的氛围大致是怎样的？
英文原文
Houthis. They've gone up against these much wealthier, much more powerful foes and those much wealthier, much more powerful foes have been forced to back down again and again. So Trump doesn't see getting involved in a war against the Houthies as a winning prospect. Vivian, I'm so curious given the fact that you're actually on the ground in Riad and have been as all of this has been playing out. What does all of this pressure actually feel like? Like sort of how is it in the air there?嗯，这有点像一个奇怪的时刻，因为胡塞武装眼下正在袭击这个王国，但这并没有波及像利雅得这样的城市。你知道，这主要影响的是王国南部的城市。所以感觉很奇怪，因为人人都知道我们可能正处于另一场战争的边缘，但与此同时，活动仍在进行，会议照常举行，他们还在讨论明年的旅游活动。依然有一种继续前行的努力，去维持一种一切都会好起来的氛围。我们会想出摆脱困境的办法。而且我相信他们仍在非常努力地抢修管道，争取让它尽快恢复运转。
英文原文
So, it's kind of a weird moment because the Houthis are attacking the kingdom right now, but it's not reaching cities like Riad. You know, it's mostly affecting cities in the kingdom south. So, it's weird because everyone knows that we're kind of potentially on the verge of another war, but at the same time, you know, events are happening, conferences are being held, they're talking about tourism events next year. There's still kind of an effort to keep going and to sort of maintain the mood that everything's going to be okay. We're going to figure a way out of this. And I'm sure they're still working very hard to repair the pipeline and get that back up and running as soon as possible.不过这现实吗？修复一条管道能有多快？嗯，目前还是个谜，因为这取决于受损有多严重，而这些情况只有极少数人掌握。我们可能看到了一些报道，指出可能需要数周时间。即便如此，对沙特阿拉伯来说也是相当糟糕的境况。但最糟糕的情况在于，无论他们修得多快，只要该地区仍有冲突，只要他们仍有愿意且有能力袭击该管道的敌人，那始终都会是一个风险。所以他们哪怕明天修好，后天就可能遭遇另一次袭击。
英文原文
>> Is that realistic, though? How fast could one repair a pipeline? Well, it's a mystery right now because it depends on how badly it's been damaged and these are things that only a very small number of people know. Probably we've seen some reporting indicating that it could be a matter of weeks. Even that is quite a bad situation for Saudi Arabia. But the worst situation is the fact that no matter how quickly they repair it, as long as there is still conflict in the region and as long as they have foes who are still willing and able to attack the pipeline, that will remain a risk. so they could repair it tomorrow and have another attack the next day.战争扩散与能源脆弱性
你知道，这让我想起，在美以与伊朗开战后曾出现过大量批评，认为他们本应更严肃地对待伊朗会或能够切断霍尔木兹海峡的想法，对吧？那基本上是可以预见的。所以我想我只是好奇，沙特的石油路线同样会被切断，是否也是一样可以预见的。我只是想知道，这场战争的最新演变究竟有多强的可预测性。我的意思是，我认为如果你是一个真正具备战略眼光且聪明的兵棋推演者，几个月前你绝对可以坐下来把这推演出来。我认为有一点在于，这里的美国海湾阿拉伯盟国——沙特阿拉伯、科威特、阿拉伯联合酋长国——这些国家始终意识到，如果伊朗对美国发动重大报复性袭击，它们自己会非常脆弱，它们会处于那场冲突的前线。它们建有这些美军基地。它们驻扎着这些美军部队，你知道，它们有在那里开展业务的美国公司，而且它们的能源、它们的石油和天然气对世界经济至关重要，以至于这确实是伊朗对美国这个非常遥远国家施加压力的最具有战略意义且最容易的途径。所以，它们一直都知道自己有可能身处类似事件的前沿阵地。这也是很多海湾国家领导人和官员最初试图阻止这场战争爆发的部分原因。
英文原文
>> You know, I'm reminded there was a lot of criticism after the US and Israel went to war with Iran that they should have taken more seriously the idea that Iran would or could shut off the straight of Hormuz, right? Like that was essentially foreseeable. So I guess I just wonder whether it was just as foreseeable that Saudis oil routes would also be cut off. Like I'm just wondering how predictable this latest iteration of the war was. I mean, I think if you were a really strategic and smart war gamer, you absolutely could have sit down and game this out, you know, months ago. I think one thing that the Gulf Arab states that are American allies here, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, these states always realize that they were very vulnerable if Iran were to launch major retaliatory attacks on, you know, the United States, that they would be kind of the front lines of that. They have these US bases. They host these US troops, you know, they have these American companies that do business there and their energy, their oil, and their gas is so crucial to the world economy, that it is really just the most strategic and easiest way for Iran to exert pressure on a country that's very far away, the United States. So, they've always known that they could potentially be on the front lines of something like this. And that's part of why a lot of Gulf leaders and officials were trying to prevent this war from happening in the first place.你知道，薇薇安，我忍不住会想起我们在本期节目开头听到的那位佛罗里达男子，那位加油站老板，他担心高昂的油价还会进一步上涨。显而易见，这只是这场战争中的一个因素、一种后果。但听起来，他和其他人需要为比我们已经见到的还要多得多的痛苦做好准备。是的。我的意思是，事实依然是，我们确实还没有看到这场战争的终点。而且它持续得越久，就越会滚雪球般演变成这些新型的复杂后果。沙特阿拉伯在开战头几个月采取的这一变通办法，曾经掩盖了战争对石油和天然气价格的真实代价。现在这种情况正在发生改变。而且我们还看到，单在也门就可能出现一种真正的新型人类苦难叠加。该国现在正重新倾斜回这场全面战争的事实，可能给已经生活在世界上最严重人道主义危机之一中的数千万人带来灾难性后果。我们在全球各地都看到了美伊战争扩散出来的所有这些后果，正在对经济、对人们承受能源开支以及伴随而来的所有商品开支的能力产生真正的毁灭性冲击。
英文原文
You know, I can't help but think, Vivian, about that man in Florida, the gas station owner that we heard from at the beginning of this episode, who's worried that high gas prices are going to go even higher. And obviously, that is just one factor, one consequence in this war. But it sounds like he and other people need to prepare for a lot more pain than we've already been seeing. Yeah. I mean, the fact of the matter remains is that we really still haven't seen the end of this war. And the longer it's going on, the more it is spiraling into these new kind of complicated consequences. So Saudi Arabia had this workaround in the early months of the war that had masked the true cost of the war for oil and gas prices. That is changing now. And we're also seeing kind of a real new kind of snowballing of human suffering that could be happening in Yemen alone. The fact that the country is now tilting back into this full-blown war could have devastating consequences for tens of millions of people who were already living in one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. We're seeing kind of all over the globe. all of these consequences spiraling out from this war between the United States and Iran that are having really devastating impacts for the economy, for people's ability to afford energy and all of the goods that come from that.越来越明显的是，这些并非很快就会消除的问题。这些问题将会非常棘手，而且可能长期存在。
英文原文
What's becoming increasingly clear is that these are not problems that are going to go away quickly. These are going to be complicated and they could potentially be long lasting.薇薇安·内里姆，非常感谢你。感谢邀请我。
英文原文
Vivian Nerim, thank you so much. Thank you for having me.全球抗议与简讯
随着油价突破每桶 100 美元，全球各地的人们纷纷走上街头，抗议价格上涨和燃油短缺。在法国，渔民在企图封锁一座燃料库时与警方发生冲突。在葡萄牙，沮丧的司机组成车队，封锁了通往一家主要炼油厂的道路。
英文原文
As oil prices [music] have surged past $100 a barrel, people around the world have taken to the streets to protest price increases and gas shortages. In France, fishermen clashed with police as they attempted to blockade a fuel depot. In Portugal, [music] a convoy of frustrated drivers blocked roads to a major oil refinery.而在叙利亚，
英文原文
>> And in Syria,政府在两周内第二次上调燃油价格，
英文原文
>> where the government raised fuel prices for a second time in two weeks,抗议者用燃烧的轮胎封锁了一条主要高速公路。叙利亚政府官员表示，由于战争，他们除了提价别无选择。
英文原文
>> protesters blocked a major highway with flaming tires. Syrian government officials said they had no choice but to raise prices because of the war.我们马上回来。
英文原文
>> [music] >> We'll be right back.以下是您今天还需要了解的其他消息。美联储周三将利率上调了四分之一个百分点，这是三年多来的首次加息。此次加息是央行主席凯文·沃什抗击通胀的重要举措，沃什曾表示通胀居高不下的时间已经太长了。
英文原文
[music] Here's what else you need to know today. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, the first [music] increase in more than 3 years. That increase is a major step by the central bank's chairman, Kevin Worsh, to [music] combat inflation, which Worsh has said has been too high for too long. [music]周三，特朗普总统就欧盟邀请加拿大成为该集团所谓“准成员国”一事威胁进行报复。此举显示出美国的传统盟友多么决意通过联合在一起来追求更稳定的未来。
英文原文
And President Trump on Wednesday threatened retribution against the European Union's invitation to Canada to become [music] a quote associate member of the block. A move that shows how intent America's traditional allies are on [music] pursuing a more stable future by binding together.“如果是善意，那很好。如果是恶意，我们将对欧洲征收非常高额的关税。”
英文原文
>> If it's a good intention, that's fine. If it's a bad intention, we'll put very heavy tariffs on Europe.总统表示，这一举动可被视为一种所谓的敌对行为。
英文原文
>> The president said the move could be perceived as a quote [music] hostile act.今天的节目由杰西卡·钟、奥利维亚·纳特和安娜·福利制作，埃里克·克罗普克协助。由玛丽亚·伯恩和安妮·莫夫编辑，迈克尔·伯努瓦协助。包含丹·鲍威尔、玛丽安·洛扎诺、罗文·尼托和帕特·麦卡斯克的音乐。音频工程由克里斯·伍德完成。我们的主题音乐由 Wonderly 创作。特别感谢本·哈伯德。
英文原文
Today's episode was produced by Jessica Chung, [music] Olivia Nat, and Anna Foley with help from Eric Cropky. It was edited by Maria Burn, and Annie Moff with help from Michael Benois. It contains music by Dan Powell, Marian Lozano, Rowan Nisto, and Pat McCusker. was engineered [music] by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Wonderly. And special [music] thanks to Ben Hubard. [music] [music]以上就是今天的《每日新闻》。我是雷切尔·艾布拉姆斯。明天见。