When Israel and Hamas agreed to the ceasefire last month, here's a bit of what a Prime Minister had to say.

"It is a day for optimism. We're encouraged, we're encouraged. But it's the first phase, and there's more to come."

So, is the ceasefire holding? What are the chances of a lasting peace, and what comes next? I asked John Allen, former Canadian ambassador to Israel and Spain and a senior fellow at the University of Toronto's Bill Graham Centre for Contemporary International History. John, welcome to the program. How are you doing?

"Good. Thanks for having me."

"All right. I want to talk about the ceasefire. Many would describe it as maybe a fragile one. Where are we at right now with it?"

"I think that's a good description. You know, the ceasefire was supposed to be followed by disarming of Hamas and then a withdrawal of the IDF and a big flow of humanitarian assistance once the hostages, both dead and alive, were delivered back to Israel. And once the Palestinian prisoners were released, we're still working. We have eight deceased hostages that are yet to come back. And frankly, that was expected because it's very difficult to find them all and to gather them all. And many are under rubble. And as we know, there was some violence over the last week. 100 Palestinians were killed when two Israelis were hit. Hamas, you know, denies that they were directly involved. There are clans. There are rebel Hamas. So it's very complicated, and we're just hoping that it will hold."

"Many people are probably wondering, how do we call this a ceasefire if there are still exchange of gunfire?"

"Yeah. Well, I think this is to be expected. You've got a situation where the IDF continues to control 53% of the Gaza Strip and Hamas and these various clans that are there, some of them who are anti-Hamas are in the other 47%. So you don't have a complete separation of forces. There are still Hamas militants in the area controlled by the IDF. And there's some suggestion over the last couple of days that they're trying to get out. And the IDF and, and others are trying to figure out how to get them out with the help of the ICRC, the Red Cross."

"Let's talk the peace plan. This was brokered by the US. There are 20 steps. We'll get into that. But what is set to take place next? We talked a little bit about hostages. It doesn't seem like it's going to be. Once this step is done, this step will happen. It seems like there is a bit of sort of crossover."

"Yeah, there definitely is. The next steps, as I mentioned, are really the disarming of Hamas because the IDF says they won't withdraw until Hamas disarms, and Hamas says that it's not going to fully disarm until the IDF withdraws. There's now talk, as there was in the in the peace plan for Northern Ireland, of Hamas giving up its heavy weapons and perhaps retaining its lighter weapons, essentially to defend itself within Gaza. That's a possible option. But the humanitarian assistance is not flowing as much as it should be. It was supposed to be done by the original UN agencies and the NGOs that are on the ground, but there seems to be a problem there as well."

"No timelines given for how long this will take. How long before I think all eyes are really on step 19 and 20, which is the rebuilding of Gaza and the agreement to coexist can't really have a rebuild if there is still exchange of fire. But do we have a sense of when they would like this to happen?"

"Well, the next steps in phase two are to bring rule of law into the Gaza Strip, and that was to be done by an international Stabilisation Force, and that was to be done with a disarmed Hamas and to withdrawn IDF. That force is not going to come in while the IDF is still very much in control and ready to start shooting if they have to. And we have continuing issues with with Hamas. Of course, we also want a UN Security Council resolution to bless all this. And then what is supposed to happen is a Palestinian technocratic government is supposed to come in and manage the day to day. While this oversight board, led by Donald Trump and Tony Blair, is supposed to provide oversight. So we've got a lot of moving parts and nothing has happened in terms of that big next step of of getting the UN Security Council resolution and getting a force in. Palestinians are being trained Palestinian police. That's good. So things are happening in the background but very difficult to to see a timeline that you could fix on."

"Can you help us understand, you know, the Israeli government approved this plan, as did Hamas. They had looked at the 20 points. They had agreed to it in good faith. Is there any reason why any side would be delaying it?"

"It's I guess I would question the phrase in good faith. Bibi Netanyahu was forced to sign this plan by Donald Trump, who had worked it out with various Arab and Muslim nations in New York, and he has his own reasons for wanting to keep those people onside. And Hamas was forced into it by Qatar and Turkey and to some extent by Egypt. I don't think either side would have agreed to the plan themselves to this plan. And we have a situation where Israel hasn't fully achieved its aims. Hamas is still on the ground. They have the hostages back and Hamas hasn't achieved its aims, which was full Israeli withdrawal and will give up our arms. So those two sides are frankly not deeply invested in this thing going forward. It's Donald Trump and the US military and the international community that really wants this to keep going. And Trump and company will have to keep the pressure on if it's going to succeed."

"Does that give us an international community faith that this will hold, even if it's being held by, say, the Western powers or Donald Trump's government?"

"I wouldn't bet your house on it. I think there are many, many obstacles and challenges in the way. I'm a glass half full person, and I desperately hope that it will hold and that will move into another phase. I think we have to remember that this is not the end of the Israel-Palestine conflict. What's happening in the West Bank continues. There's settlement expansion, there's violence at a large scale, and Bibi Netanyahu has made it clear that he's not interested in the two-state solution, which is that point 19 and 20, where there's a pathway to Palestinian self-determination."

"I want to you touched on a little bit. I want to get a better understanding of the involvement of the surrounding nations, specifically Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the Western governments. You talk about sort of the overseers that Trump will be with Blair, but those three nations, what will they be doing on the ground?"

"Yes, they're going to be monitoring along with the Americans. They're going to be keeping pressure on Hamas to fulfill its side of the bargain. While Trump keeps pressure on Bibi Netanyahu and the messianic ministers in his coalition, they are not necessarily going to be a part of the Stabilisation Force. That apparently is going to be Indonesia, Azerbaijan, perhaps the UAE, others, maybe the Egyptians there. I don't think Turkey, because Israel wouldn't have Turkey there. So they're they're the oversight. They're the ones that we rely on to keep Hamas honest in this. And hopefully they'll be able to succeed."

"Why would this plan work when historically, none have ever really progressed?"

"For the same reason that the plan was accepted by both sides because Donald Trump wants it to work. He's got a huge investment in keeping the Gulf states and certain Arab states, Turkey, onside. He's got huge investments there and wants more. And he did get the hostages out, which was part of his agenda. But it's really going to be dependent on Trump staying focused. Wittkopf Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, keeping the pressure on. And I think we're going to have to hope that there's another election in Israel, and there will."

"Has to be before October next year."

"Exactly. And if there is an election and if there's another government, then my optimism guarded optimism might go up because I think another government might be more interested in in seeing the cease fire hold and in seeing a Palestinian government eventually come in there and try and rule Gaza without Hamas."

"John, we're going to leave it here. Really appreciate it. I'm sure this is a developing story. We will keep in touch and we'll see how the story goes. Thank you so much."

"Really appreciate you. Thanks very much."