再保险的本质
Nicolai Tangen: 大家好,欢迎收听《In Good Company》。我是挪威主权财富基金的首席执行官Nicolai Tangen。今天我们有幸邀请到瑞士再保险(Swiss Re)的首席执行官Andreas Berger。瑞士再保险是一家非常有趣的公司,他们主要为保险公司提供再保险服务。我们持有该公司1.6%的股份,价值8亿美元。热烈欢迎Andreas。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Hi everybody and welcome to in good company. I'm Nicolola Tangan the CEO of the Norwegian so wealth fund and today we are in really good company. We are here with Andreas Burgerer who is the CEO of Swiss Re. Now Swiss Re is a very interesting company. They basically insure insurance companies. We own 1.6% of the company or $800 million US. Warm welcome Andas.
Andreas Berger: 非常感谢,谢谢邀请。那么我们从最简单的问题开始吧:一家再保险公司是做什么的?
Original English
Andreas Berger: Thank you very much. Thanks for having me. So let's start uh with the simplest thing here. What does a reinsurance company do?
Andreas Berger: 嗯,你已经说过了。我们是保险公司的保险公司。有些人称之为保险业的中央银行。严格来说,这并不完全正确。我们为保险公司提供财务保障。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Well, you already said it. We are the insurers of the insurance companies. Some refer to it as the central bank of the insurance industry. Technically not 100% correct. So we are giving financial protection to insurance companies.
Nicolai Tangen: 为什么保险公司需要为自己投保呢?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Why do insurance companies need to insure themselves?
Andreas Berger: 保险公司处于国家甚至国际背景下,它们需要保护自己的资产负债表,并受益于我们在全球层面实现的多样化。因此,我们拥有全球多样化,因为风险并非相互关联。但如果你单独来看,保险公司显然需要更多的资本。所以,多样化是有帮助的。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Insurance companies sit in a national or maybe also international context but they need to protect their balance sheet and they benefit from our diversification that happens at global level. So we've got global diversification because risks are not correlated but if you look at a standalone basis then obviously uh the insurance companies need more capital for this you know so diversification helps.
Nicolai Tangen: 那么,从事这种只关注风险和潜在负面结果的工作,是否需要一种特殊的心理呢?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Do you have to have a special kind of psyche to work with uh only uh risks and negative potential negative outcomes?
Andreas Berger: 不,但我认为再保险的宗旨,特别是我们的宗旨,是让世界变得更具韧性。
Original English
Andreas Berger: No. But I think the purpose in particular also reinsurance in our um our purpose is we make the world more resilient. M
Nicolai Tangen: 这引起了人们的共鸣,特别是对我这样在世界各地长大、亲身经历过风险的人来说。我见过政变、革命以及其他各种风险,我开始思考这些对人们意味着什么,会产生什么影响。当你打开电视,看到发生的一切,社会如何应对这些?所以我对所有这些都产生了兴趣。Andreas,我们能谈谈你们承保的不同类型风险吗?你们是如何划分的?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: that resonates for people in particular for me who grew up in so many parts of the world and I saw risks firsthand um ketars revolutions uh other kinds of risks and I started to think what does that do what does that do to people what impact does it have when you switch on the TV everything that happens how do societies deal with this so I developed an interest in in all of this Um Andreas, can we talk about the different types of risks that you insure? How do you split it?
瑞再的三大业务单元
Andreas Berger: 是的,我们专注于三个业务单元。第一个是寿险和健康再保险。我们的寿险和健康保险公司是我们的客户。第二个是财产和意外再保险公司。这是保险公司销售财产险、意外险、房屋保险、汽车保险等的地方。然后我们有第三个单元,叫做企业解决方案。在这里,我们为大型企业提供保险,这些企业也拥有自己的保险公司,即自保公司。所以,这是三个单元,它们为集团带来了非常好的分散化效益。寿险与财产意外再保险之间没有关联,而在财产意外再保险内部,这两个单元也没有直接关联,因为企业解决方案是外部再保险。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yeah, we focused on three business units. One is life and health reinsurance. So our insurance companies, life and health insurance companies are clients, property and casualty reinsurance company. That's where the insurance companies sell property casualty, homeowners insurance, motor insurance, etc. Then we have a third unit that's called corporate solutions. There we are insure corporates large corporates who also have their own insurance companies captives. So this is these are the three units and they have a very nice diversification benefit for the group. Life insurance is not correlated to PNC reinsurance and within PNC reinsurance the two units are not directly correlated because corporate solutions reinsures externally.
Andreas Berger: 我给你举个例子,自然灾害。在独立基础上,自然灾害的资本回报率是8%。但如果你从集团层面来看,它会增加到40%。这就是我所说的多样化效益。
Original English
Andreas Berger: I give give you an example natural catastrophes the capital return on a standalone basis for natural catast catastrophes is 8%. If you look at it at group level it increases to 40%. So that's the divers benefit diversification benefit that I'm talking about.
自然灾害风险
Nicolai Tangen: 让我们从自然灾害开始谈起,因为我们每天都在报纸上读到它们。那么,你们主要承保哪些类型的灾害?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Let's start with uh natural catastrophes because we read about them in the paper every day. So uh what are the main catastrophes that you injure against?
Andreas Berger: 我们称之为主要灾害和次要灾害。主要灾害例如地震、飓风。次要灾害更多是高频率的灾害,如洪水、野火等等。这些都是次要灾害。在过去的六年里,连续六年,保险损失都超过了1000亿美元。这意味着每年增长约5%到7%。所以我们确实看到频率在增加,但严重性也在增加。
Original English
Andreas Berger: uh we call it primary and secondary perils. Primary perils are earthquakes for instance, hurricans. Secondary perils are more the frequency um perils, floods, um wildfires, you know, the likes. Those are secondary perils. In the last um six years, consecutive years, the losses, the insured losses exceeded 100 billion. So that's about an increase of 5 to 7% per year. So we see really that the frequency increases but also the severity.
Andreas Berger: 我认为这是需要解决的问题。例如,在2024年,我们经历了经济损失。这些是所有损失,不仅仅是保险损失,总计3180亿美元,其中1370亿美元得到了保险。
Original English
Andreas Berger: I think that's something to address. In uh 2024 for instance we had economic losses. Those are all losses not only the insured economic losses of 318 billion and 137 billion were insured.
Nicolai Tangen: 为什么自然灾害越来越多?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Why do we have more and more natural catastrophes?
Andreas Berger: 人们总是提到气候。这是一个使事情复杂化的方面。但主要方面是人口增长。人口增长伴随着资产的增加,例如汽车、房屋等等。不幸的是,这些增长总是发生在最宜人的地区,而其中一些最宜人的地区恰恰是自然灾害多发区。所以,这是主要原因。
Original English
Andreas Berger: People refer always to climate. That's one aspect that complicates things. But the main aspect is population growth. Mhm. population growth and with the population growth comes increased assets, cars, houses etc. And unfortunately always in the nicest areas and some of the nicest areas are very very much natural catastrophe areas. So uh that is the main reason
Nicolai Tangen: 如果我们把这两个因素分开,先谈气候,再谈人口增长。那么,你认为气候对灾害有什么影响?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: if you split the two and we do climate first and then we do what uh the population growth. So uh what is the climate impact you think on catastrophes?
Andreas Berger: 所以,主要原因确实是人口增长。我必须这么说,因为气候影响我们一直都有。所以这是一个需要思考的问题,但气候因素确实在加剧这种情况,你可以从海平面上升或气温上升中看到这一点。
Original English
Andreas Berger: So the primary reason is really population growth. I must say that because climate uh impact we always had that. So that's one thing to think about but the climate aspect is actually adding to it and you can see it in water sea level rising or temperature rising.
Andreas Berger: 所以我们所做的是预测未来。我们有一个数据平台,你可以在上面为一家公司及其资产创建数字孪生。我们用所有事件,如飓风等,对它们进行压力测试。然后我们还会根据气温上升进行预测。我们使用科学模型,这基本上能为你提供洞察力,告知你灾害的严重程度或韧性管理,无论是对企业、保险公司还是公共实体。这三类是我们的客户群体。
Original English
Andreas Berger: So what we do is we project into the future. We've got a data platform where you can create basically your digital twin of for instance a corporate company and their assets. We stress test them with all the events, hurricanes etc. And then we also do projections according to temperature rises. We use scientific um models and that informs basically gives you insight informs the severity or the uh resilience management you know in uh corporates but insurance companies but also in public entities. Those are the three customer groups that we service.
Nicolai Tangen: 我听过你们的一些播客,你们公司谈到强对流风暴。据我理解,这些对流风暴很难预测,因为它们发生得非常快且局限于局部,对吗?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: I listened to some of your podcast and you know in your firm you talk about severe convection storms the way I understand it and these con these these convection storms are difficult to predict because they are very fast right and localized.
Andreas Berger: 是的,它们确实难以预测,但借助我们的数据平台以及我们使用的模型和预测,我们能够预见其中一部分。是的。但如果不能,总有办法进行缓解和预防。例如,对于洪水,可以修建堤坝。你会发现,在缓解措施上投入1美元,可以节省10美元的灾后重建费用。所以,这在我们业务中也是一个关键方面,不仅仅是风险转移,即保险和再保险,还要帮助人们预防和缓解风险。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yes they're difficult to predict but with our data platform and with the models that we then use with the projections we can anticipate some of it. Yes. But if not, there's always a way to mitigate and to prevent actions to mitigate. For instance, for floods, to build dikes, etc. You can see that, you know, $1 you spend on the mitigation saves you $10 for rebuilding after the event. So, that's a that's a critical aspect in uh in our business as well, not just to risk transfer to insure and reinsure, but also to help people prevent and mitigate.
Nicolai Tangen: 那么像野火这样的情况呢?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: What about things like wildfires?
Andreas Berger: 同样的情况。野火,特别是在加利福尼亚州,这是一个众所周知的事实。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Same story. Wildfires in particular in California, it's a known fact. It's a known fact.
Andreas Berger: 所以,在这里你再次看到了人口增长恰好发生在那些暴露于风险的地区。有很多事情可以做来缓解,甚至可能预防,比如土地使用规划、建筑规范以及正确使用建筑材料。你可以在照片中看到,在2025年1月加利福尼亚州发生的野火中,几乎所有东西都被烧毁了,但有些房屋却几乎没有受到影响。这归结于思考如何建造才能缓解已知可能发生的灾害。所以,这不是一个不可预见的事件。
Original English
Andreas Berger: So again, here you saw population growth in exactly those exposed areas. And there's a lot that can be done to mitigate maybe even prevent land use, building codes, right use of building materials. And you could see in the pictures also for um the wildfires that happened in uh California in in 2025 in January. You could see literally everything that burned down and then there were some houses that were not really impacted. So that is down to thinking about how do I build in order to mitigate something that I already know can happen. So it's not an unforeseen event.
Nicolai Tangen: 当我们查看数据,看到全球变暖等情况时,我有点惊讶你没有更多地强调气候状况的恶化。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: um when we look at the data and we look at the global warming and uh and so on, I'm a bit surprised you are not uh emphasizing more uh deterioration in in the climate situation.
Andreas Berger: 不,我认为瑞士再保险对此一直非常直言不讳。但我认为现在最好做的是从这个元层面、宏观层面,我总是称之为从道德层面到物质层面。将我们从科学中了解到的知识转化为现实生活。这就是为什么我们需要数据。我们需要将科学发现与来自私人家庭、市政当局等公共实体以及企业界的真实生活数据连接起来,并将两者结合。
Original English
Andreas Berger: No, I think Swiss was very vocal about this. But what I thought would be best to do now is to get from this meta level, the macro level, I would call always call it from morality to materiality. Yeah. To translate what we know from science into real life. That's why we need data. We need to connect basically the scientific findings with real life datas from private households, public entities like municipalities but also for corporates and combine both.
Nicolai Tangen: 好的。所以我们有洪水、火灾、风暴。这些是事件。但同时,越来越多的人希望居住在这些事情正在发生的地方。比如德克萨斯州有更多的人,我们的屋顶上安装了更多的太阳能电池板。所有这些事情都在发生,对吧?那么,这种影响有多大?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Okay. So we have uh floods, we got fires, we got storms. So that's kind of the the events. But then also more people want to live where these kind of things are happening. So what are the and so more people in Texas, we got more solar panels on our roofs. all these kind of things happening, right? So, how big is that effect?
Andreas Berger: 不,我认为这场辩论现在正真正进入具体层面,特别是在州一级,因为它是一个州级问题,而不是真正的联邦问题。联邦层面可以提供帮助,但我们与州级层面合作,德克萨斯州就是一个很好的例子。我们正是创建了这种数据透明度。我们要求他们提供数据,提供他们的资产信息。例如,我们在澳大利亚和新西兰也这样做,在市政当局层面,我们说,让我们收集资产数据,将它们作为数字孪生放在我们的平台上。
Original English
Andreas Berger: No, I think um the debate is now going really into concrete levels in particular at state level because it is a state uh uh problem and not really a federal problem. Uh the federal um level can help but what we do also with state levels, Texas is a very good example. We create exactly this data transparency. We ask them give us your data, your assets. We do this also in Australia for instance um in New Zealand concrete levels where uh levels of municipalities where we say let's gather the assets data put them really as a digital twin on their platform
Andreas Berger: 然后我们看看德克萨斯州会发生什么,比如热浪、干旱、洪水、强降水等等。你可以把它精确到非常具体的层面,因为我们处理的是经纬度信息。你只需要地址,再添加一些信息,数字孪生就完成了。这并不是一件复杂的事情,而且数据通常并不那么容易获得。所以我们尝试帮助人们以更有效的方式组织数据。
Original English
Andreas Berger: and then let's see what happens in Texas heat uh waves drought um floods heavy precipitation etc. You could really nail it down to a very singular level because it is the that lat long that we address. You know, we just need the address, add a bit of information and then the digital twin is complete. That's not a complicated thing and the data is very often not really readily available. So we try to help people to organize data also in a more effective way.
风险可保性与可负担性
Nicolai Tangen: 考虑到与天气相关的风险,有哪些是你们再也无法承保的?我想到的是加利福尼亚州以及其他地方的房屋,因为洪水等原因。这具体是如何运作的?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: What are the kind of things that you cannot ensure anymore because of weather related risks? I'm thinking about, you know, housing in California, uh, and other places because of flood and so on. Just what how does this work?
Andreas Berger: 这不是一个可保性问题,实际上更多的是一个可负担性问题。如果我们不关注损失预防,我认为这才是重要的。我们不仅需要为风险转移提供资产负债表,让人们从我们的多样化中受益,而且还需要帮助人们利用我们的数据和数据分析。我们已经收集了162年的数据。我们是一家数据公司,现在借助现代技术,我们构建数据模型等,可以使我们的自然灾害模型随时可用,然后提供关于如何预防、如何实际降低威胁水平的见解。
Original English
Andreas Berger: It's not an insurability problem. It's actually more than an affordability problem. If we don't take care of loss prevention, I think that's the important thing. We need to not only provide a balance sheet for risk transfer where people benefit from our diversification, but also we need to help people make use of our data, data analytics. We collected data for now 162 years. We're a data company and now with modern technology where we build data models etc. We can make our models natural catastrophe models readily available and then give insights how to prevent how to reduce actually the levels of threat
Andreas Berger: 这会增加韧性。这甚至在你考虑保险之前。所以我们需要重新关注风险所有权的概念。当你在一个地方建造房屋时,你不能转移负担。那是你的房子。所以你需要了解该地区的地质情况以及可能发生的事情,这些信息是可获得的。所以,我们的方法是:第一步是理解、意识创建加上量化。第二步是实际的缓解和预防。第三步才是风险融资。其中一种方式是风险转移,即保险或再保险。
Original English
Andreas Berger: that increases resilience. It's before you even think about insurance. So we need to refocus on the concept of ownership of risk. You cannot shift the burden when you build a house somewhere. That's your house. So you need to be informed about the geog geological situation what can happen in this area and this information is available. So that is our um approach to say understanding awareness creation plus quantification step one. Step two is actually mitigation prevention and step three is then risk financing. One way is actually risk transfer insurance or reinsurance. Then
Nicolai Tangen: 那么你认为我们会看到更多政府需要承担风险的情况吗?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: do you think we'll see more cases where the government actually needs to own the risk?
Andreas Berger: 是的。在某些领域,问题太大,无法由一方解决。这就是为什么我们提倡这些公私合作模式。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yeah. In some areas the problem is too big to be solved by one party. That's why we promote these public private partnership models.
Nicolai Tangen: 这些模式的例子有哪些?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: And what what what are examples of these?
Andreas Berger: 例子实际上是在一些领域,我们认为需要重新评估土地使用。人们是否应该搬到那些几乎可以预测会发生灾害的地区?
Original English
Andreas Berger: Examples are actually in areas where we say land use needs to be reassessed. M should people move into certain areas where it's almost predictable that catastrophes will happen.
Andreas Berger: 有很好的例子,比如新西兰就决定重新安置居民社区。这是一个艰难的决定,但如果你有数据和共同的理解,这是一个很好的解决方式。在英国,我们有公私合作关系来解决洪水问题。社区、公共实体和保险部门会共同努力。他们对堤坝等进行投资,然后我们就能提供承保能力,否则保险将变得无法负担。
Original English
Andreas Berger: M and there are good examples where New Zealand for instance has decided to relocate people communities. It's a tough decision but if you have the data and a common understanding that's a good way to address it. we have um um uh uh in in the UK public private partnerships to address basically the flat problem. So the communities come together, the public entities come together and the insurance sector come together. Um there are investments into dikes etc. Um and then we can provide you know capacity otherwise insurance would be not affordable anymore.
Nicolai Tangen: 有很多地方你觉得“我们这里的风险已经够多了,不想再承担更多风险”吗?比如纽约,如果把所有房地产和所有其他东西加起来,你们这样的公司在纽约会承担多少风险?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: M are there many places where you think well you know what we got enough risk here we don't want to take on more risk like New York how much risk would a company like yours have in New York if you add up all the real estate all the kind of things you have there
Andreas Berger: 不,我认为我们有一个承保能力分配模型。首先,我们分配资本。然后,下一个层面显然是在我们的首席承保委员会中,我们将承保能力分配给不同类型的产品或风险业务线,我们就是这么称呼它们的。显然,我们需要确保我们没有过度暴露。我们进行累积控制,这显然会影响我们部署到单个风险的承保能力水平。然后,我们实际上会向某些地区以及某些业务线部署预算。
Original English
Andreas Berger: no I think we have a capacity allocation model first of all we allocate capital and then the next level is obviously in our chief underwriting committee we allocate the capacity to the different types of products or risks lines of business as we call them. Yeah. And obviously we need to see you know that we're not overexposed. We do accumulation controls and obviously that informs the level of capacity that we deploy to individual risks and then we deploy actually uh budgets to certain uh territories uh but also to certain lines of businesses then.
Nicolai Tangen: 那是财产意外险,但你们还有其他业务部分。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: So that was the PNC but you also have other parts of the business.
Andreas Berger: 是的,我们有财产意外再保险业务,然后显然是企业业务。这是第二部分。第三部分是寿险和健康再保险业务。我想,也许我们先谈谈企业业务。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yes, we've got the PNC reinsurance business then obviously the corporate business. That's the second part. And then the third part is the life and health reinsurance business. Um I think maybe let's talk about the corporate business first and then
Nicolai Tangen: 因为你之前负责那块业务。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: because you were running that before.
Andreas Berger: 我之前负责那块业务,那基本上就是……
Original English
Andreas Berger: I was running that before that is basically
Nicolai Tangen: 而且那块业务过去曾遇到一些问题,你上任后就面临了这些问题。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: and and that had some problems in the past which you came in and faced.
Andreas Berger: 是的。因为与财产意外再保险业务一样,它也是一项波动性很大的业务。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yes. Because equally like the PNC reinsurance business, it's also a volatile business.
Nicolai Tangen: 是的。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Yeah.
Andreas Berger: 你需要再次审视你的投资组合中有什么样的多样化?你承保哪些风险,将它们纳入你的资产负债表,以及你希望在这类业务中如何增长。
Original English
Andreas Berger: And again you need to see what diversification do you have in your portfolio? which risks do you onboard, take on your balance sheet and how do you want to grow in this in this type of business. So we
Nicolai Tangen: 那么,在那部分业务中,你们承担哪些类型的风险?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: so so what what kind of risks do you have in that part of the business?
Andreas Berger: 我们基本上承保全方位的风险。我们为企业的资产、负债和运输提供保险,也包括航空风险,有时我们也会与再保险部门共享。所以,企业、大型企业和中高端市场企业是我们的客户群。我们不从事零售业务。所以我们通常是B2B业务,即企业对企业业务。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Uh we ensure basically the full range. We ensure in corporates for their assets for their liabilities for uh transportation uh also the aviation risks and sometimes we share it also with the reinsurance unit. So corporates, large corporates and upper middle market corporates are our customer base. We're not in the retail business. So we are typically a B2B businessto business business
Andreas Berger: 在这种业务中,你们有专业的采购中心协同工作。所以我们也为企业拥有的自保公司提供结构化解决方案和风险融资解决方案。在这里,我们的数据模型和承保能力再次得到应用。我们为国际保险项目提供全球范围的保障,我们称之为国际保险项目,企业通过这些项目集中管理其在全球所有资产的风险,他们需要一个能够在服务方面响应需求并帮助构建解决方案的合作伙伴。这是一项复杂的业务。
Original English
Andreas Berger: where you have professional buying centers uh working together. So we provide also structured solutions, risk financing solutions for captive insurance companies that are owned by corporates. And here again our data models are being used and our capacity are being used and we provide worldwide cover for international insurance programs we call them you know where corporates steer their risk globally for all assets in the world centrally and they need a partner who can actually respond to the needs on the service side but also help to structure it. It's a complex business
Nicolai Tangen: 那么过去这里的问题是什么?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: and what was the problem here in the past?
Andreas Berger: 问题在于我们在某些领域拥有过大的头寸。例如,在美国的责任险领域。在美国责任险的大型企业风险领域,我们非常容易受到大量损失的影响,而我们在这方面过度暴露了。我们业务的50%以上在美国,所有责任险业务的90%也在美国。所以我们在那里存在集中风险,这给我们带来了损失。
Original English
Andreas Berger: The problem was that we were um had outsized positions in certain type of areas. For instance, in US uh liability and um the large corporate risk uh space in the US liability was very exposed to a lot of losses and uh that is something where we were overexposed more than 50% of our business was in the US and 90% of all liability business was also in the US. So we had a concentration there and that was hurting us.
Nicolai Tangen: 那么他们让你来解决这个问题,你做了什么?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: And what so then they brought you into fix it and what did you do?
Andreas Berger: 我们基本上重置了这个业务单元。我们问:我们在谈论什么?谁是真正的客户?他们真正需要我们提供什么?我们拥有哪些差异化资产可以部署给客户,并且客户也看重瑞士再保险的资产?
Original English
Andreas Berger: We basically reset this business unit. We said what are we talking about? Who is actually the customer and what do they actually need from us? Where do we have differentiating assets that we can deploy to the customer where the customer also values Swiss assets.
Andreas Berger: 所以,风险洞察、领先的项目、领先的能力。你需要拥有正确的风险工程师、正确的承保人以及正确的理赔处理人来完成这些工作。今天,我们有一个非常清晰的业务主张。我们不是万能的。我们专注于特定的客户群体。我们已经减少了长尾业务,现在拥有一个非常健康的、非相关业务线的组合。当财产周期下降时,我们肯定有信用保险,这是逆周期的,这实际上帮助我们产生了业绩。但如果你看看客户反馈,他们重视瑞士再保险在再保险方面所代表的价值,在企业方面也同样如此。
Original English
Andreas Berger: So risk insights leading programs lead capabilities. You need to have the right risk engineers, the right underwriters who can do that and also the the right claims handlers who can do that. And today we have a very clear proposition. We're not everything to everyone. We focus on a specific customer segment. We have reduced the longtail business and have now a very healthy um book of cor non-correlated lines of businesses. When the property cycles go down, we definitely have credit insurance. that was counter cyclical that helped us actually uh produce our results but also if you look at the customer feedback they value what Swiss3 stands for on the reinsurance side equally also on the corporate side
Andreas Berger: 我们是少数几个较晚进入国际保险项目领域的小型保险公司之一,但它也是另类风险转移,你可以在其中寻找针对企业的另类风险融资结构,这些结构非常复杂。不是每个人都能做到。所以如果你看这个领域的数据,你可能会与8到10个竞争对手在国际项目领域打交道,而如果你进入正常的业务投放,你将与数百甚至更多的竞争对手打交道。所以这种差异化帮助我们管理了结果。
Original English
Andreas Berger: we're one of the few late entrances in a small group of insurance companies it's the international insurance program space but it's also alternative risk transfer where you look at uh finding alternative risk financing uh structures for corporates, complex structures. Not everybody can do that. So if you look at numbers in this space, you probably deal with eight to 10 competitors in the international program space and then if you go into normal placement there, you deal with hundreds uh or more uh competitors. So that differentiation helped us to manage basically um also the outcome.
寿险与健康再保险:新兴挑战
Nicolai Tangen: 你们的最后一个业务部分是寿险。新型的肥胖症和抗肥胖药物如何影响这个部门?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Your last uh part is the the life side. How does uh the new types of obesity uh anti-obesity drugs impact this division?
Andreas Berger: 是的。我们是全球领先的寿险和健康再保险公司,我们有一个叫做Life Guide的产品。我们收集所有信息,提供给初级保险公司的承保人,关于特定类型的疾病。它几乎就像一本医学手册。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yeah. So we have um um some we the leading life and health reinsurance company in the world and we have something that's called life guide. There we collect all the information that we make available to underwriters for primary insurance companies about certain type of diseases. It's almost like a medical handbook.
Nicolai Tangen: 嗯。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Mhm.
Andreas Berger: 借助AI,我们基本上添加了AI,并增强了Life Guide方面的产品。所以肥胖症及其所有特定方面显然都已纳入我们的模型和假设中。我们曾就新冠疫情展开过讨论,你知道,疫情核心事件后我们看到的理赔高峰的原因是什么?是的,理赔报告延迟了。我记得在2023年第三季度,我们看到了来自美国的理赔高峰,我们百思不得其解,为什么这只发生在美国,特别是在中年人群体中,因为在所有OECD国家都没有看到这种高峰。这种因果关系需要被理解。人们问:这是肥胖症吗?是药物使用吗?是癌症吗?因为有趣的是,它波及了所有社会群体。
Original English
Andreas Berger: With AI, we add AI basically and we augment the offering on this lifeguard side. So obesity and all the uh specific aspects of it obviously are entered into our model and into our assumptions obviously and um we had this this debate around co you know what was the reason the causality for these spikes spikes that we could see after the core event of co yeah so the late reporting of claims and we had in I I think it was in 2023 in Q3 if I remember correctly we had a spike coming spike coming through from the US and we were scratching our heads and we say why is this happening in the US in particular in the age group um of middle-aged people because in all OECD countries you didn't see that spike and that causality needed to be understood people asked is this obesity Is this use of drugs? Is this cancer? Because interestingly it went through all social groups.
Andreas Berger: 所以那里正在进行大量研究。并非所有答案都已找到。但我认为这确实是我们需要深入挖掘的问题,因为我们正在暴露我们的资产负债表,我们需要将预期纳入我们的成本计算和最终定价中。如果你处理不当,你将面临30、40甚至有时50年的风险。是的,这就是这些合同的期限。这就是为什么对细节的理解非常重要。
Original English
Andreas Berger: So there's a lot of research that's happening there. Not all answers are have been found. But I think that's something really when we need to dig very deep because we exposing our balance sheet and we need to put you know the expectations into our costing into our pricing ultimately also and if you don't get it right you expose yourself for a time period of 30 40 sometimes 50 years. Yeah. That's the duration of those contracts. That's why that granularity of understanding is very important.
新兴风险:网络与AI
Nicolai Tangen: 在可保性方面,你们需要考虑哪些新的问题?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: What are some of the new issues that you need to think about in terms of whether you can insure them or not?
Andreas Berger: 保险是如何运作的?你需要数据。你需要数据,你需要开始建模。你需要理解数据。让我们以网络风险为例。这是一个常见事件。但如果你出去问人们,告诉他们你最坏的情况是什么,你会得到很多答案。对网络风险的深入理解也还不够好。
Original English
Andreas Berger: How does insurance work? You need data. You need data and you need to start to model. You need to understand the data. Let's take one risk where cyber as an example. It is a common event. But if you go out and ask people tell me what your worst case scenario is then you get a lot of answers also the deep understanding of the cyber exposures is not good enough yet.
Nicolai Tangen: 我们能完全承保网络风险吗?我的意思是,我们的主权财富基金能否找到一家保险公司,完全承保网络风险,这样如果有人偷走了我们的钱,我们就能从你们那里拿回来?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Can we fully insure against cyber I mean could we with our wealth fund come to an insurance company and totally insure against cyber so that if somebody stole our money we would get it back from you.
Andreas Berger: 是的,这确实始于对风险暴露的理解。是的。这是我们需要共同努力的地方,也是最关键的部分。为什么你得不到那么高的限额?因为保险公司通过提供较小的限额来降低其风险暴露,因为我们实际上不知道最坏的情况会是什么样子。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yeah, it's really it starts with the understanding of the exposure. Yeah. And that is something that where we have to work together and that's the most critical piece. Um why don't you get so many so high limits? Because insurance companies are reducing their exposure by offering smaller limits because we don't know actually what the worst case scenario actually could look like.
Nicolai Tangen: 嗯。所以……
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Mhm. So
Nicolai Tangen: 所以你们对每个案例的风险暴露都设置了上限。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: So you you cap your exposures for each case.
Andreas Berger: 绝对是的。而且我们公司也有承保能力限额和风险限额。衡量这些非常重要。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Absolutely. Yeah. And uh we have capacity limits and we have risk limits in our company also and that's very important to to to measure these.
Nicolai Tangen: 那么**人工智能(AI)**呢?你们公司也在开发一些AI模型。如果它完全失控,造成巨大损失,你们如何承保?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: What about AI? So we make some AI models in you make some AI models in a firm. It goes totally ballistically wrong big losses. How can you ensure that?
Andreas Berger: 是的。这是一个新领域,我谈论这个问题已经有一段时间了,甚至在AI大肆宣传之前。因为正在发生的事情是人们使用数据,而数据也存在偏见。然后算法介入,顺便说一句,软件程序也有同样的问题。所以算法或软件程序的故障是一个我们需要真正更好地理解的话题。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yeah. So that's a new area and uh I've been um talking about this for quite some time uh even before the big hype of AI because what's happening people work with data and data has biases too and then the algorithms come in and by the way software programs have the same you know so the malfunction of algorithms or software programs is a topic that we need to really get a better understanding for
Andreas Berger: 在我们公司,AI治理和业务中数据数字使用的框架受到严格监管。所以我们总是将人置于循环中。我们不允许AI替人类做决定。我们面临这个困境,管理者也面临这个困境。既有兴奋,也有风险。
Original English
Andreas Berger: um in our company the AI governance and the framework for the digital use of data in uh business is strongly regulated. So we always have the human in the loop. We don't allow AI to take decisions for the humans and we have this dilemma and managers have this dilemma. There's this excitement but then there's also the risk.
Nicolai Tangen: 据我理解,在定价方面,你们有两个杠杆可以操作。你们可以正确定价,比如价格上涨3%、5%、7%。但你们也有排除条款,对吧?所以你们可以限制风险暴露,也可以直接将某些东西排除在承保范围之外。请告诉我们这个排除条款是如何运作的。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: My uh my understanding is that you have uh two levers uh to move when it comes to pricing. You got you got the pricing right. So prices up by 3%, 5%, 7%. But you also have the exclusion element, right? So you can you can cap your exposures and you can just exclude things from what you cover. How uh tell us about this ex exclusion thing and how that works.
Andreas Berger: 通常,当你面临例如AI或算法故障等风险暴露时,它可能涵盖当今存在的各种类型的保险。网络保险就是这样开始的,因为你有一个典型的财产保险或我们称之为非损害性业务中断险。因为财产险通常是在发生火灾或爆炸时触发的。但非损害性风险暴露和物理损害风险暴露,我认为这是新的。通过这种方式,网络风险逐渐渗透到传统保险中,而这在保险或合同建立之初并非本意。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Well, usually um when you have a exposure in II for instance or algorithm malfunction etc. It can span across various type of covers that are existing today. And cyber happened started that way because you had a typical property insurance cover or something that we call non-damage business interruption because property covers usually were triggered when there was a fire. Yeah. Or explosion. But the non-damage exposure and physical damage exposure I think that was new. M and through this the cyber exposures were creeping into traditional covers and that's something that was not intended when the cover or the contract was established
Andreas Berger: 这就是为什么随着它作为一种风险暴露而增长,行业越来越多地得出结论:我们需要实际地排除它,理解它,然后当我们理解它并掌握它时,我们需要为此提供一个单独的保险。所以你现在可以购买单独的网络保险,而不是将其整合到财产险或非损害性业务中断险中。
Original English
Andreas Berger: and that's why as it grew as an exposure the industry more and more came to the conclusion we need to actually exclude it understand it and then as we understand it and if have a a grip around it then we need to have a separate cover for this so you can buy now separate uh cyber cover m instead of integrating it into a property or non-damage business interruption cover
Nicolai Tangen: 但这些事情变得越来越复杂,对吧?我们最近在报纸上看到,越来越多的和解协议最终都上了法庭。你如何看待这种发展?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: but but these things are become it's becoming more and more complicated right uh and so what we see I read in the paper recently is that more and more of these settlements are ending up in court how do you see that development
Andreas Berger: 我无法证实我们有更多判决,但确实存在争议,因为围绕合同创建时的意图存在争议。然后是风险暴露,你知道,新的风险暴露、新兴风险暴露是否包含在内?我认为这是典型的争论,但这很正常,特别是在B2B世界中,这很正常。
Original English
Andreas Berger: um I I I can't confirm that we have many many more verdicts but there are disputes yes because there's a dispute around what was the intent when the contract was created and then what's the exposure you know the new exposure the emerging exposures are they included are they not included that I think that's the the typical debate that you have but that's normal in particular in the B2B world it's normal
Andreas Berger: 当涉及到家庭、私人客户、个人或企业时,保险范围的清晰度非常重要,因为它涉及消费者保护方面。而与再保险公司或保险公司谈判的企业,则有两家专业的采购中心。两者都相当老练。所以这归结为合同确定性也非常重要,这就是为什么不仅价格重要,而且正如你所说,条款和条件也同样重要。
Original English
Andreas Berger: when it comes to households to private um private um customers personal airlines alliance or businesses their clarity of cover is very important because it's a consumer protection aspect with companies that negotiate with reinsurance companies or insurance companies. There you have two professional buying centers. Both are pretty sophisticated and there it comes down to also contract certainty is very important and that's why not only the price is important but actually as you said the terms and conditions.
再保险市场周期与竞争格局
Nicolai Tangen: 我们现在谈论了你们的三个业务领域,以及它们在一定程度上如何相互抵消。所以你们可能会得到一些相当稳定的结果。现在,据我理解,这项业务及其周期性是这样的:有些年份损失很大。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: So we we talked now about your three areas and how they and they kind of cancel out each other to a certain extent. So not you know some pretty kind of potentially stable results from you. Now the way I the way I understand uh this business uh and the cyclicality of the business is that you have some years with big losses.
Andreas Berger: 是的。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yes.
Nicolai Tangen: 之后价格上涨,当价格上涨时,利润非常丰厚。然后会有更多资本涌入,竞争又会把价格压低。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Afterwards prices go up and when prices go up it's really profitable. So then you get more capital coming in competing prices down back again.
Andreas Berger: 嗯。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Mhm.
Nicolai Tangen: 这些周期是如何运作的?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: How do these cycles work?
Andreas Berger: 首先,周期不只一个。
Original English
Andreas Berger: First of all there's not only one cycle.
Andreas Berger: 是的。非常重要的是要注意,每个产品,我们称之为每条业务线,都有不同的周期。所以当财产险或自然灾害保险的费率环境下降时,还有其他业务线与此不相关。我认为这就是我们观察到的。我们审视我们的总投资组合,我们称之为目标负债投资组合。我们有一个五年期的前瞻性视图,我们假设发展、费率发展以及通货膨胀等所有因素都会纳入其中。然后我们看看我们的投资组合表现如何。如果有一个周期下降,我可能就不会再在那个领域投入太多增长。所以我限制了对那个领域的承保能力部署。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yeah. It's very important to note each product each line of business as we call it has a different cycle. So when a cycle a rate environment is de declining in property or natural catastrophe insurance there are other lines of businesses that are not correlated to that and I think that's what we observe. We look at our total portfolio and we call it the target liability portfolio. We have a fiveyear forward-looking view and we assume develop developments, rate developments, but also inflation et that all comes in and then we see how does my portfolio behave and if there's one cycle that goes down I probably will not grow in that area so much anymore. So I limit capacity deployment to that area.
Andreas Berger: 嗯。然后我在其他不相关、没有下降的领域有重点的增长抱负。这就是周期管理。理解每个业务线所处周期中参与者的行为非常重要。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Mhm. And then I have focused growth ambitions in other areas that are not correlated with that are not going down. And that's the cycle management. And it's important to understand the behaviors of players in each part of the cycle that a line of business is in.
Nicolai Tangen: 再保险领域的主要参与者是谁?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Who are the big players in reinsurance?
Andreas Berger: 嗯,我们有三大主要再保险公司,我们总是这么称呼他们。你可以说是前五大。前五大占据了大约46%的市场份额。前三大占据了大约……
Original English
Andreas Berger: Um we have um the top three lead reinsurers we always call them. Um you could say the top five. The top five have something around 46% of the market share. The top three have some
Nicolai Tangen: 所以是慕尼黑再保险,是你们,
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: So it's Munichree, it's you,
Andreas Berger: 慕尼黑再保险、汉诺威再保险和我们。然后是Scor作为下一个。然后你还有我们称之为第二梯队的公司。所以前三大公司大约占31%,前五大公司占46%,前十大公司大约占70%的市场份额。所以顶级公司是主要的再保险公司。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Munichree, Hanover, and US. Then their score as a next one. And then you have also the the second tier ones as we call them. So 40 31% roughly the top three, 46% top five and the top 10 have roughly 70% of the market share. So the top tier one are the lead reinsurers.
Andreas Berger: 初级保险公司需要主要的再保险公司来提供长期稳定性、强大的资产负债表、高评级的资产负债表和长期承诺,以及能够提供全账户视图的公司。然后你进入下一个第二层级,你会发现很多百慕大公司。然后还有第三层级。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Prime insurance companies need lead reinsurers for long-term stability, strong balance sheet, highly rated balance sheets and long-term commitment and also those are able to offer whole account views. Then you go into the next second level ones, you find a lot of Bermudans in there. And then you have the third tier um
Nicolai Tangen: 那些位于百慕大的公司。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: a companies which are situated in Bermuda.
Andreas Berger: 它们位于百慕大。这是一个不断增长的细分市场,即第二梯队市场。然后你还有一些较小的公司,再保险公司,通常是初级保险公司开设的再保险部门。这些有时是第三梯队的公司。
Original English
Andreas Berger: They are situated in Bermuda. And um it was a growing segment, the sec tier 2 segment. And then you've got smaller companies, reinsurance companies, very often um departments of primary insurance companies who opened up a reinsurance company. Those are sometimes the tier three ones.
建立再保险公司所需能力
Nicolai Tangen: 好的。那么,假设这次会议之后,我感到非常受启发,觉得再保险业务真是太棒了,我们应该用我们基金的一部分来做这个。我们需要做什么?我的意思是,要创办一家保险公司,你需要具备哪些技能?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Yes. So let's say now after this meeting uh I come out and feel really inspired and uh wow reinsurance company reinsurance business that's just the greatest thing we should start to do that with uh part of the fund that we have what do we need to do I mean what what are the skill sets that you need to have to start every insurance company
Andreas Berger: 所以首先,你需要专注于你想成为什么,你想服务谁,你的客户群是什么。如果你说:
Original English
Andreas Berger: so first of all you need to focus on what do you want to be and who who do you want to be uh to to service what's your customer base if you say
Nicolai Tangen: 嗯,我们想成为一个大玩家,赚很多钱。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: well we want to a big we want to be a big player and make a lot of money.
Andreas Berger: 好的。那么我会说,我们先谈谈能力。是的。所以你需要拥有所有能力的多元化组合。这是一种多学科方法。我们有科学家、医生、工程师、数学家、精算师、律师、商业管理人员。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Okay. So I would say let's talk about the capabilities first. Yeah. So you need the diverse spectrum of all capabilities that you can have. It's a multid-disciplinary approach. We have scientists, physicians, um we have engineers, we've got mathematicians, acturies, we've got lawyers, business administration. So
Nicolai Tangen: 是的,天气预报,全方位的。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: yeah, weather forecast the full spectrum.
Andreas Berger: 是的。没错。全方位的。是的。化学家,我们拥有全方位的专业人才。为什么?因为风险暴露和风险池如此多样化。为了对风险的各个方面有良好的理解,我们需要这种多样性。如果人们充满好奇心,那么这是一个值得投身的行业。所以风险是多样化的。例如,当你打开电视,Nicolai,你看新闻时,新闻的每一个方面都与再保险有关。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yes. Exactly. The full spectrum. Yeah. Chem chemist chemists and the full spectrum we have. Why? Because the exposure and the risk pool is so diverse. And to get a good understanding of all the aspects of risk, we need this diversity. And if people are very curious, this is an industry to be in. So risks are diverse. When you switch on the TV, Nikolai for instance, and you see the watch the news, every aspect of the news has to do with reinsurance.
Andreas Berger: 所以对我来说,这非常充实。是的。我们正在运营。
Original English
Andreas Berger: So for me, it's super fulfilling. Yeah. So we are operating.
Nicolai Tangen: 那么当你读新闻时,之后你能睡着吗?还是会做噩梦?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: So when you read the news, do you sleep afterwards or do you have nightmares or
Andreas Berger: 不,因为我们让世界变得更具韧性。所以你需要为这些问题找到答案,我认为这很令人兴奋,你带来了你的知识。但同时,在全球团队中工作,我们在瑞士再保险有75个团队在全球层面运作,他们不像我们这样坐在一个办公室里,而是坐在同一张桌子旁。
Original English
Andreas Berger: No, because we make the world more resilient. So you need to find answers for this and I think that's exciting and you bring in your knowledge. But then also in working in global teams we have,75 teams at Swissry who operate at a global level who are not sitting in one office like we do sit at one table.
Nicolai Tangen: 那么我们来谈谈你们拥有的这些能力吧。你们有多少精算师?人们具体做什么?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: So let's talk through these capabilities that you have then so you know who are you know how many are uh actuaries you just what do people do
Andreas Berger: 例如,我们有50名研究人员,他们日复一日地思考自然灾害。我们有大约200个模型。所以世界上发生的每一个事件都是一个新的数据点,将被整合并保持我们的模型更新。所以我们可能拥有全球最完整的模型之一。这是一门学科。但如果你出去评估一个数据中心,你显然会通过案头研究和风险工程工作获得大量信息,但你也会亲自出去考察,为此你需要有对正在评估的事物有深入理解的人。是的。这就是为什么这些各种学科被引入的原因。是的。
Original English
Andreas Berger: for instance we have 50 researchers who think about natural catastrophes day in day out. M we have around 200 models. So each event outside in the world is one new data point that will be integrated and keep our models updated. So we probably have the one of the most complete models worldwide. So that's one discipline. But if you go out and have to assess a data center, so you obviously have a lot of information through your desk research and risk engineering work and desk exercise, but you also go out for that you need to have people who have a deep understanding of what they're actually assessing. Yeah. So that's why these various disciplines are being you know brought to the party. Yeah.
Andreas Berger: 只是给你举这些例子,我们也有纯粹的承保人。这就是我们所做的。我们是一家承保公司,承保对我来说也包括理赔。我们培训来自各种不同学科的人员来实际进行承保。是的,有一个清晰的课程。我们有一个新的领导力架构和培训架构,其中也包含了AI元素。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Just to give you those examples, uh we also have uh people who are pure underwriters. That's what we do. We're an underwriting company and underwriting also includes for me claims and we train people who come from various different disciplines to actually do underwriting. Yeah, there's a clear curriculum. We've got um uh a new leadership architecture and training architecture where where we also include AI elements
Nicolai Tangen: 承保基本上就是决定如何给风险定价。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: and underwriting is basically to decide how you price risk.
Andreas Berger: 是的。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yes.
Nicolai Tangen: 因为你可以在10分钟内通过以错误的价格承担所有风险,来创建最大的再保险公司。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Because you can uh you can make the biggest reinsurance company in 10 minutes by just taking on all risks at the wrong price.
Andreas Berger: 是的。错误的价格。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yes. The wrong price.
Nicolai Tangen: 我希望你不要这样做。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: I hope you don't do this.
Andreas Berger: 不,不,当然不会。那样你就会破产。
Original English
Andreas Berger: No. No. Of course not. And then you blow up.
Nicolai Tangen: 是的。是的。当损失开始发生时,你们如何培训人们远离错误的风险?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Yes. Yes. When the losses start to happen, how do you train people to walk away from the wrong risks?
Andreas Berger: 是的。所以,我们对自己的风险偏好有清晰的理解。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yeah. So, we have a clear understanding of our risk appetite.
Nicolai Tangen: 是的。因为你不能,因为你不能根据人们承保的业务量来支付报酬,因为他们可能会承保错误的业务,对吗?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Yeah. Because you can't because you can't remunerate people on the amount of business they write because they can write the wrong one, right?
Andreas Berger: 不,你完全正确。这归结为激励机制。我的意思是,我们对自己的风险偏好有清晰的看法。我们在哪里部署资本,我们需要获得回报,然后这显然会转化为承保能力部署。然后我们告诉人们,你们没有被迫增长。你们被迫增长的是底线,我们总是这么说。
Original English
Andreas Berger: No, you're absolutely right. It comes down to the incentives. I mean, we have a clear view on what our risk appetite is. Where we deploy our capital, we need a return on this and then obviously this is translated in capacity deployment. And then we tell people you're not forced to grow. You're forced to grow the bottom line we always call it.
Andreas Berger: 所以激励机制实际上是正确理解风险,并确保它不是为了增长而增长。我认为这是一个承保人总是面临的困境。这就是为什么承保人是承保人。一个好的承保人能够平衡它,能够理解在哪里可以增长,在哪里可以部署承保能力,在哪里可以获得回报。所以你最好理解风险。我们有工具可以为你提供定价以及条款和条件的指示。然后,在竞争激烈的市场环境中的谈判可能会让你做出通常不会做出的决定。这是我们非常仔细观察的事情。
Original English
Andreas Berger: So the incentivization is really to understand the risk properly and make sure that it's not growth for just for the sake of growth. And I think that's a that's the this dilemma that an underwriter always is in. And that's why an underwriter is an underwriter. And a good underwriter can balance it, can understand where can I grow, where can I deploy my capacity, where I get the return. So you better understand the risk. And we have tools that give you an indication also of pricing and the terms and conditions. And then the negotiations out there in the market in a very competitive market environment might actually push you into a decision that you normally wouldn't take. And that's something that we watch very carefully.
Nicolai Tangen: 所以在这里工作的人平均来说都非常规避风险。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: So the people who work here are on average extremely risk averse.
Andreas Berger: 不,我知道这是我们内部一直在讨论的问题,因为当我们说市场不处于你应该增长的情况时,是因为条款和条件或费率不足以承担风险。所以当市场出现转机时,你需要改变你的心态,因为那时你突然可以承保更多业务,那个时刻非常关键。因为一旦你处于这种防御模式,要再次切换到更具进攻性的模式。所以当软市场转向硬市场时,这是一个非常有趣的心理现象。
Original English
Andreas Berger: No, you I know this this is a discussion we have internally all the time because when we say the market is not in a situation where you should grow now because the terms and conditions or the rates are not uh risk adequate. So then as the moment comes where the markers are turning, you need to switch your mindset then because then suddenly you can write more and that moment is very decisive because once you are in this defense mode to switch then again into a more offense mode. So that's the when soft markets you know pivot into hard markets that's a very interesting psychological thing also.
Nicolai Tangen: 只是想到一家公司里都是非常风险意识强的人。我只是想知道他们的圣诞派对会是什么样子。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: just thinking a firm full of very risk conscious people. I'm just wondering what the Christmas parties uh look like.
Andreas Berger: 哦,我们最近在苏黎世举办了一场圣诞派对。我想有将近2000人参加。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Oh, we had recently a Christmas party in Zurich. We had I think almost 2,000 people.
Nicolai Tangen: 你们仍然知道如何开派对。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: You still know how to party.
AI如何改变工作方式
Nicolai Tangen: 那么,AI正在如何改变你们的工作方式?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: So, how is AI changing the way you work?
Andreas Berger: 我认为AI正在极大地改变我们的工作。我们处理AI已经有一段时间了。所以我们很早就开始使用机器学习、高级分析等。我们是一家数据公司,也是一家以人为本的公司。我们以数据模型思考。所以我们建立了一个清晰的数据策略,带有一个前端本体,然后基于一个清晰的、全球整合的数据平台。现在我们已经AI就绪了,我总是这么说,因为我们拥有的每一个AI用例都将立即整合到我们的数据和技术基础设施中。
Original English
Andreas Berger: I think AI is changing our work dramatically. We have been dealing with AI for quite some time. So we were at an early stage already working with machine learning advanced analytics etc. We are a data company and people company. We think in data models. So we have established a clean data strategy with a front-end ontology and then based on a clean globally integrated data platform. Now we're AI ready I always call it because every AI use case we have will instantly be integrated into our data and technology infrastructure. Mhm.
Andreas Berger: 这样你就可以从中获得好处,因为问题往往在于数据和技术已经过时,碎片化。巨大的IT遗留系统和IT债务,导致单个AI用例仍然是独立的用例,无法整合到你的数据和技术基础设施中。所以好处是不可见的。我认为这是我们行业面临的最大问题。现在我们用AI做什么呢?我们也用AI来增强和改进我们的决策制定,但我们也用它来改进我们的流程。
Original English
Andreas Berger: So that's where where you can then detract the benefits because the problem very often is that data and technology is outdated. It's fragmented. Huge IT legacy and IT debt. So that the individual AI use cases are still standalone use cases and cannot be integrated into your data and uh technology infrastructure. So the benefits are not visible. I think that's the biggest problem we have in the industry. Now what we do with um AI, we use AI also to augment to improve our decision- making but we also use it to improve our processes.
Nicolai Tangen: 你认为量子计算会带来什么?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: What do you think um quantum computing will do?
Andreas Berger: 嗯,这是下一个发展。坦率地说,如果我们在第一阶段能够管理并实施生成式AI,我就很高兴了,因为我们正在经历的变革是巨大的,因为它改变了人们今天的工作方式。我们必须重新构想我们的流程。现在量子计算显然会到来,因为我们处理的数据量如此之大,但我很高兴如果我能完成第一步并正确实施它,并产生效益。剩下的对我来说还很遥远,将作为下一步到来。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Well, this is the next um development. Now quite frankly I am happy if we manage phase one and implement um in particular gentic AI because the change we go through is massive because it changes the way people work today. We have to re-imagine our processes. Now quantum computer computing comes obviously because we deal with such an amount of data but I'm happy if I do step one and actually implement it properly and generate the benefits. The rest it's very far away and will come as a next step then for me.
资产负债管理与市场展望
Nicolai Tangen: 你们现在有很多钱,因为人们支付保费等等,你们把这些钱投入到资本市场。所以这是你们工作的重要组成部分,对吧?你们如何投资你们的资本基础。嗯,你现在对市场有什么看法?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Now you got a lot of money uh because people pay you premiums and so on and you put them into capital markets. So it's an important part of what you do, right? Absolutely. How you invest your capital base. Um how what is your view on markets now?
Andreas Berger: 所以我总是称之为我们保险业的阴阳。我们刚才谈论的是负债方。
Original English
Andreas Berger: So I always call it the ying and yang in our insurance industry. We were talking about the liability side.
Nicolai Tangen: 是的。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Yeah.
Andreas Berger: 现在是资产负债表的资产方,它们都属于一体。它们对于实现我们的净收入非常重要。是的。所以阴阳也意味着……
Original English
Andreas Berger: Now there's the asset side of the balance sheet and they all belong together. They're so important for delivery of our net income for instance. Yeah. So the ying and yang means also
Nicolai Tangen: 所以负债方是你们可能需要支付的款项,而资产方是你们拥有的资本,你们将其投入金融市场。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: so liability the kind of things you potentially have to pay out and the asset side is the capital you have which you put in financial markets.
Andreas Berger: 是的,我们在负债方承担风险,这就是我们刚才谈论的承保。现在有ALM,即资产负债管理部分,它转化为SAA,即战略资产配置。然后我们将其交给合作伙伴,一个资产管理人,有时我们也自己做。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Yeah we assume risk on the liability side that's the underwriting that we were talking about and now there's the ALM the asset liability management piece that translates into the SAA strategic asset allocation then we give it it um to a partner an asset manager or sometimes we also do it ourselves.
Nicolai Tangen: 告诉我们你们有多少钱?你们投资了多少钱?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: give us a feel how much money do you have in have you how much money have you got invested
Andreas Berger: 我们的管理资产超过1000亿美元。显然,随着业务的增长,这也会增长。所以这就是我们拥有的规模。然后我们有一个战略资产配置,这显然取决于负债和支付模式,也就是我们必须始终展示的理赔支付能力。所以我们有一个相当保守的资产配置。但我们与所有合作伙伴合作。但同时,它不仅仅是资产管理方面,也是为了保护阴阳两面。正如我所说,我们也在从保险的负债方桥接到资本市场,即保险挂钩证券市场。我们是保险挂钩证券市场的首批创始人之一。
Original English
Andreas Berger: so we have assets under management north of 100 billion um obviously as we grow the business this will also grow so that's the magnitude that we have and then we have a strategic ass allocation that is obviously dependent on the liabilities and the payout patterns so the claims paying a ability we have to show and and capability which have to show all the time so we have a pretty conservative asset allocation But we work with all partners. But then also it's not just the the asset management side to protect uh sort of to to the ying and yang side. As I said, we also are bridging from the insurance the liability side towards capital markets, the insurance link securities markets. We're one of the the first ones the founders of the insurance link security markets.
Andreas Berger: 我们在市场上有大约50亿美元的名义价值。所以我认为这是一个重要的市场,我们发行巨灾债券。
Original English
Andreas Berger: We've got some notional 5 billion 50 billion in the market out there. So I think that's a significant market and uh we have cat bonds that we issue
Nicolai Tangen: 巨灾债券。是的。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: catastrophe bonds. Yeah.
Andreas Berger: 我们发行的巨灾债券。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Catastrophe bonds that we issue
Nicolai Tangen: 在这种情况下,你得到钱,但如果发生灾难,你基本上就得不到那么多钱了。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: where you get money and then if there is a catastrophe you basically don't get so much money.
Andreas Berger: 嗯,巨灾债券是一种很好的工具,特别是对于机构投资者而言。它能很好地分散你的资产,而且回报相当可观。我们看到的回报率在11%到14%之间。所以我认为这非常有吸引力,但我认为它更适合专业人士,适合机构投资者。现在有将其更多地带给私人投资者的趋势。嗯,我会说这是一种专业人士的工具。所以我想,嗯,因为这其中也存在风险。是的。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Well this is the cat bonds catastrophe bonds are a nice instrument in particular for institutional investors. So it diversifies quite nicely with your with your assets that you that you have and the returns are quite attractive. So we have seen between 11 14% return. So I think that's very attractive but I I think it's it's more for professionals for institutional investors there trends now to bring it more to private uh individuals. Um I would say this is an instrument for professionals. So I think um because there's also risk attached to it. Yeah
Nicolai Tangen: 完全正确。那么你如何描述瑞士再保险的企业文化?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: totally. And what how would you characterize the corporate culture in Swiss?
瑞再的企业文化与领导力
Andreas Berger: 瑞士再保险拥有超过120个国籍的员工。我们在大约70个国家设有办事处。我们天生就是全球化的。我们天生就是多元化的,我们讨论了我们在这里汇集的学科和能力。所以这就是我们的本质,这就是我们公司。我们拥有非常协作的文化。我们拥有悠久的传统。这是一家拥有160年历史的公司,人们看到其中蕴含着大量的风险知识,这是人们引以为傲的。如果你将这种风险知识和风险洞察力与高度协作的精神结合起来,并现在加入绩效方面,为客户提供解决方案,我认为这是一个很好的、充满活力和能量的环境。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Swiss re has more than 120 nationalities. We operate in around 70 countries. Um offices, we've got 70 offices in countries. Um we are global by in nature. We are uh diverse in nature and we've discussed about the disciplines, the capabilities that we bring together here. So that's the nature that's the company who we are. We have a very collaborative um culture. Um we have a big big tradition. It's 160 years old company and um people see that there's a lot of risk inside risk knowledge and that's what people are proud about and if you combine this risk knowledge risk insight with a highly collaborative spirit and add now the performance aspect to bring solutions to the customers I think that is a nice um dynamic um and energetic environment
Nicolai Tangen: 平均受教育程度非常高。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: very highly educated
Andreas Berger: 平均来说是的。所以我们有毕业生项目。我们与大学建立了合作关系,对此我们非常自豪。但我们正在寻找专家。是的。但特别是经验丰富的人。是的。所以当你看看我们的招聘情况时,很多都是经验丰富的人,但我们仍然有毕业生项目。
Original English
Andreas Berger: in on average yes so uh We have graduate programs. We have partnerships with universities um that we're very proud of. Uh but we uh are looking for experts. Yes. But also uh in particular experienced people. Yeah. So uh when you look at the recruitments that we have, a lot happens with experienced people, but we still have also graduate programs.
Nicolai Tangen: 你作为首席执行官相对较新。你试图改变企业文化的哪一部分?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: You are relatively new as a CEO. What part of the corporate culture are you trying to change?
Andreas Berger: 我试图保持瑞士再保险所代表的以及客户所珍视的价值,但我想强调几点。核心业务,我们是一家承保公司。所以我们应该为自己是一家承保公司而自豪,因为这就是客户选择我们的原因。他们喜欢我们的专业知识和我们寻找解决方案的创造力。但我也喜欢绩效,绩效视角。我们总是称之为缩小与第一名的差距,因为这是一种心态。
Original English
Andreas Berger: I tried to maintain what Swiss stands for and the customer's value, but I'd like to emphasize a few points. The core business, we are an underwriting company. So, we should be proud to be an underwriting company because that's why customers come to us. They like our expertise, our creativity to find solutions. But I also like to have the performance, the performance view. Um, we always call it close the gap to number one because that's the mindset.
Andreas Berger: 人们总是问我“第一名”是什么意思?不,我说那是在你的活动中的心态。谁是第一名?与第一名之间有什么差距?你能缩小这个差距吗?这并不是说要一直成为最大的,而是要有那种求胜的意志,那种寻找最佳客户解决方案的优势,同时也要带来令股东满意的财务结果。
Original English
Andreas Berger: People always ask me what does one number one mean? No, I said that's the mindset in your activity. Who's number one? And what's the gap to number one? Can you close that gap? It's not about being the biggest all the time, but to have that will to win that that edge to find the best solution for the customers, but that also bring a financial outcome that satisfies our shareholders. For instance,
Nicolai Tangen: 这种求胜的欲望从何而来?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: this need to win. Where do you have that from?
Andreas Berger: 我是一个有竞争力的人,但我是团队合作者。我一直从事团队运动,我热爱它。所以我把我的领导团队比作一支足球队。每个人都有自己的角色。如果有人试图扮演别人的角色,那就不行。所以这是我们正在努力的事情,我真的很自豪我们现在每个人都非常有效地扮演着自己的角色,因为最终我们需要得分。是的。你有防守队员。他们需要保持你的球门不失。然后你有掌舵的人。然后你有与市场、业务单元首席执行官以及资产管理部门打交道的人。
Original English
Andreas Berger: I'm a competitive person, but I'm a team player. I always did team sports and I loved it. So, I refer to my leadership team as a football team. Everybody has a role to play. If somebody tries to play other people's roles, doesn't work. So that's something that we're working on and I'm really proud that we are now playing each one's role very effectively because at the end we need to score. Yeah. You've got people in the defense. They need to keep your goal clean. And then you've got people who steer. And then you've got people who have the interface to the markets, the business unit, CEOs for instance, but also asset management.
个人经历与领导哲学
Nicolai Tangen: 你出生在卢旺达。你认为这会影响你踢足球的方式吗?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Now, you were born in uh Rwanda. Do you think that impacts the way you play football?
Andreas Berger: 哦,我从没想过这个问题。卢旺达是一个美丽的国家。我当时……
Original English
Andreas Berger: Oh, I never thought about that. Ronda is a is a beautiful country. I was uh
Nicolai Tangen: 但这种外部视角,你觉得这会影响你对瑞士再保险的看法吗?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: But this outside do you feel like um this outside in view? Do you does that impact the way you you think about Swiss Re? I think
Andreas Berger: 我想,嗯,也许有一个方面塑造了我,那就是我曾面临许多变化或不确定性。当时有政变,葡萄牙也发生了革命。我总是退后一步,尝试分析这对我和我个人、我的家庭、你作为个体意味着什么。这可能是我在商业中应用的东西,不要贸然行动,而是真正分析情况。在当今世界,每天都充满不确定性和变化,你必须时刻思考这意味着什么,不要恐慌。所以我称之为战略耐心,我个人和专业上都在运用它。
Original English
Andreas Berger: um maybe one aspect um shaped me as I was confronted with a lot of changes or uncertainties. There was a kuditar and and in Portugal was a revolution. I always take a step back and try to analyze what does that actually mean also for me personally you know for family for for for you as an individual and that probably is something that I applied in business um to not shoot from the hip to really analyze the situation and in today's world with all the uncertainties with changes every day you got to think all the time what does that actually mean don't panic so I call it strategic patience that I apply personally but also professionally.
Nicolai Tangen: 告诉我,这种如此分析化、不那么依赖直觉的方式是如何运作的。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Tell me how that works being so analytical and less prone to gut feel.
Andreas Berger: 不,不,不,不。我是个80/20法则的人。
Original English
Andreas Berger: No, no, no, no. I'm a 80/20 person.
Nicolai Tangen: 好的。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Okay.
Andreas Berger: 所以分析非常重要,但你不能总是追求100%的分析。最后20%实际上会让你放慢速度,并且不再给你那种确定性和最大的洞察力。所以我真的是一个80%的人,我说,你看,我们有80%了,那就去做吧。
Original English
Andreas Berger: So, analysis are very important, but you cannot always go for the 100% analysis. The last 20% are actually slowing you down and don't give you that assurance um and that maximum insight anymore. So I'm a really 80% person where saying look as we have 80% let's go out and
Andreas Berger: 然后我们边走边纠正路线。我认为这使得我们公司在整个转型过程中也相当成功。嗯,我对这种方法非常满意。嗯,是的,我是一个善于与人打交道的人,所以你可以分析到死,但最终我们是面对面坐着的。你知道,这是一种关系。这是一种信任。而且我必须对此有良好的感觉。我总是称之为嗅觉测试。
Original English
Andreas Berger: yeah do it and then course correct uh as we go along. I think that's that made our company quite successful also in this whole transformation that we went through. Um and I'm I'm very happy with this approach. Um yeah I'm a people person so you can analyze to death but at the end of the day we're sitting opposite each other. you know, it's a relationship. It's a trust. And um I have to have a good feeling about this. I always call it the sniff test.
Nicolai Tangen: 你生命中最重要的人是谁?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: What's been the most important person in your life?
Andreas Berger: 我有很多重要的人。我的意思是,显然我可以说是我的家人很重要,而且现在也很重要。实际上,我珍视的每一次个人互动都很重要,但基础是家庭。
Original English
Andreas Berger: I had many important people. I mean, obviously I could say my family was important and is important and actually every personal interaction that I value is important, but the foundation is a family.
Nicolai Tangen: 那么,在商业世界之外,谁对你产生了最重要的影响?你有什么特别的灵感来源吗?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: And who's been um the most important influence uh from kind of outside the world of business? Any particular inspiration you've had?
Andreas Berger: 我对国际政治非常感兴趣。是的。我读了很多关于它的书。嗯,我学习了历史,也学习了领导力。所以每个人在特定背景下都有某些特定的方面,我对这些很感兴趣。为什么某些领导人在非常关键的时刻做出决定,因为当时可能有一个选择。现在我不想点名一个人,因为有太多非常非常好的不同领导人。
Original English
Andreas Berger: I'm very interested in in international politics. Yes. And I read many books about it. Um and I learned about history and I learned about leadership. So each and every individual had certain specific aspects in a certain context and I was interested in that. Why did certain people take leaders take decisions in a very critical moment and because there was probably a choice now I don't want to pick one name because there were so many very very good different leaders
Andreas Berger: 这就是为什么人们会问:“哦,谁是你的榜样?”我说,你知道,我从商业内外很多人那里学到了东西,但商业之外更多的是关于你自己,你的平衡,你如何成为今天的你。这通过许多互动、通过大量观察学习,然后做你自己。
Original English
Andreas Berger: and that's why people say oh who was your um role model I say you know I I I learned from many people in business but outside business it's about yourself your balance um how do you become the person you are today and it's through many interactions through learning a lot by observing and then be yourself
Nicolai Tangen: 如果你要给年轻人一些建议,那会是什么?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: and if you were to give advice to young people what would that be
Andreas Berger: 实际上,我最近刚在大学做了一场讲座,人们问了我同样的问题。所以,保持好奇心,保持开放心态,但也要脚踏实地,保持平衡。但当你想成为一名领导者时,有两个方面。当你想成为一名领导者时,你会考虑三件事。这也是我们在这里应对所有变化时努力做到的。预见性。你需要预见。想象一个不是今天的情况。例如,在商业中,你需要预见一种情况。AI未来会是什么样子?
Original English
Andreas Berger: actually I was um just recently um giving a lecture at university and people ask me exactly the same question so stay curious be open-minded but also feel very grounded and have a balance But when you want to become a leader, there's two aspects. When you want to become a leader, you think about three things. And that's what I try to do also as we operate here with all the changes. Anticipation. You need to anticipate. Imagine a situation that's not today. In business for instance, you need to anticipate a situation. How does AI look like in future?
Andreas Berger: 这是第一点,预见性。第二点,自我激励。因为每个人都会告诉你这行不通。超过80%的人不喜欢改变。他们说他们会改变,但他们不喜欢改变。所以你需要时刻保持自我激励。第三,你需要有启发性,因为你需要带领人们前进。所以这三个方面非常重要。然后我说的另一部分是:做好你现在的工作,就好像它是你的最后一份工作一样。
Original English
Andreas Berger: That's number one, anticipation. Number two, selfm motivation. Because everybody will tell you it doesn't work. More than 80% of the people don't like change. They say that they change, but they don't like change. So you need to be self motivated all the time. And thirdly, you need to have inspiration because you need to take people along. So those three aspects are very important. Then the other part that I say do your current job as if it were your last.
Nicolai Tangen: 是的。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Yeah.
Andreas Berger: 不要总是寻找下一份工作,因为你会分心。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Don't always look for the next job because you get distracted.
Nicolai Tangen: 绝对正确。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Absolutely.
Andreas Berger: 然后最后一件事是,这是我真正相信的,因为我实践过很多次。帮助他人,为他人做一些好事。尝试帮助他人解决问题,不求任何回报。剩下的自然会来。
Original English
Andreas Berger: And then the last thing is and that's really something I believe in because I I practiced it so so many times. Help people do something good for others. Try to help solve a problem for others without expecting anything in return. The rest will come.
Nicolai Tangen: 绝对正确。好的,我们是在周五录制这个节目的。在瑞士,外面下了很多雪,但你不滑雪。那么你做什么呢?
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Absolutely. Well, we are recording this on a on a Friday. Uh in Switzerland, it's a lot of snow outside, but you don't ski. So, what do you do?
Andreas Berger: 周五有很多事情可以做。总是……
Original English
Andreas Berger: There's many things you can do on a Friday. It's always
Andreas Berger: 晚上和家人共进晚餐。
Original English
Andreas Berger: the evening dinner with a family.
Nicolai Tangen: 是的。你读什么书?例如。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Yeah. What do you read? For instance,
Andreas Berger: 我最近刚读了一本克劳塞维茨的《战争论》。在圣诞假期期间,我读了一本书,我可以推荐给你。它叫《蓝花楹》(Jakarandanda)。作者是盖尔·费特(Gel Fate)。他是一位法国作家,母亲来自卢旺达,父亲是法国人。这是一本很棒的书,对卢旺达的情况描述得很好。因为他去那里寻找他母亲的家人,而且这与我有关。我父亲是德国人,我母亲来自卢旺达。所以我认为这是一本很棒的书。它在法国获得了一些奖项。一位非常著名的作家。所以,《蓝花楹》。
Original English
Andreas Berger: I just recently read a book um Clovitz on war. And during my Christmas holidays, I read a book. I can recommend it to you. It's called Jakarandanda. The author is called Gel Fate. He's a French one whose mother is from Rwanda and the father's French. Fantastic book um nice description um about the situation in Rwanda. Um because he went there to find out, you know, who the family of his mother was and um and it related to me. My father's German, my mother's from Rhonda. So, so I think it was a fantastic book. It won some awards in in France. A very well-known author. So, Jackaranda.
Nicolai Tangen: 非常好。好的,我们就以这个推荐结束吧。非常高兴能邀请你。非常感谢。
Original English
Nicolai Tangen: Very good. Well, we'll finish off on with that uh with that recommendation. It's been great having you on. Big thanks.
Andreas Berger: 非常感谢,Nick。
Original English
Andreas Berger: Thank you very much, Nick.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
公司/组织: Swiss Re, Norges Bank Investment Management
产品/模型: Life Guide, Cat Bonds
媒体/书籍: Clovitz on War, Jakarandanda