Nicolola Tangan: Hi everybody and welcome to in good company. I'm Nicolola Tangan the CEO of the Norwegian so we welf and today we have a tremendous guest Dr. Fati Broll, executive director of the International Energy Agency. And wow, what a topical podcast this is going to be. So, uh, big welcome Fati.

Fati: Thank you very much, Nicolash.

Nicolash: Now, you have warned that markets and politicians are still underestimating the consequences of the crisis in the Middle East. What are they getting wrong?

Fati: You know, Nikolai, we are intergovernmental organization. Uh, we work for the government's public institution. after uh the war has started uh since there are many market related uh dynamics I told my colleagues and myself 3 weeks we didn't make any public statement uh the the newspapers with the journalists even though we receive as usual lots of lots of requests uh except for I made a statement about the oil release of the other story but I I saw that the the decision makers, governments in Europe but around the world didn't understand how big the problem uh is and can be not for the energy sector but for the global economy. So it is the reason I decided uh I think it was a week ago or so to come up with some numbers make the people understand that this is a serious issue for all of us and the the way to deal with this is first we recognize what a big problem it is and I try to describe what the problem is and I think it was a in my view a good move that it was gave a a big drive to policy makers to discuss more intensely about the situation.

Nicolash: You said that it's the greatest global energy security threat in history and bigger than 73 and so on. Just what do you what metrics are you looking at? So u you know we have many energy crisis uh unfortunately but when you look at the last couple of decades three of them uh stand uh one of them the 73 oil crisis 79 oil crisis and uh 2022 Russia invasion of Ukraine and gas. So when you look at the oil crisis 7379 uh in both of them we lost each about 5 million barrels per day of oil. So 5 + 5 it is about 10. And we all know that this uh oil crisis led to uh global recession in many countries developing countries foreign debt spiral they fell into and today as the things stand now uh we lost 12 million bars per day. So two more than two of these oil crisis put together. In terms of natural gas, uh when Russia cut the gas, u we lost around 75 BCM of gas. And now the amount of gas we lost now is higher than the uh the Russian gas crisis, which means the current crisis is more than all these three crisis put together. Plus if I may in addition to this oil and gas there are many vital commodities very important for the global economy petrochemicals fertilizers helium sulfur they are very important for the global supply chains and this comes on top of uh that if I say one more thing we are following the uh the the damages on the the assets, energy assets in the region and according to our database 40 key assets have been damaged. Some of them are light but some of them are severe and very severe. It will take some time uh to get back. So it is the reason looking at these numbers metrics as you say I decided to uh make statements to make the people understand that we are heading towards a major major disruption and the biggest in the history up to now.

Fati: You know, Nikolai, we have many energy crisis uh unfortunately but when you look at the last couple of decades three of them uh stand uh one of them the 73 oil crisis 79 oil crisis and uh 2022 Russia invasion of Ukraine and gas. So when you look at the oil crisis 7379 uh in both of them we lost each about 5 million barrels per day of oil. So 5 + 5 it is about 10. And we all know that this uh oil crisis led to uh global recession in many countries developing countries foreign debt spiral they fell into and today as the things stand now uh we lost 12 million bars per day. So two more than two of these oil crisis put together. In terms of natural gas, uh when Russia cut the gas, u we lost around 75 BCM of gas. And now the amount of gas we lost now is higher than the uh the Russian gas crisis, which means the current crisis is more than all these three crisis put together. Plus if I may in addition to this oil and gas there are many vital commodities very important for the global economy petrochemicals fertilizers helium sulfur they are very important for the global supply chains and this comes on top of uh that if I say one more thing we are following the uh the the damages on the the assets, energy assets in the region and according to our database 40 key assets have been damaged. Some of them are light but some of them are severe and very severe. It will take some time uh to get back. So it is the reason looking at these numbers metrics as you say I decided to uh make statements to make the people understand that we are heading towards a major major disruption and the biggest in the history up to now.

Nicolash: How will this pan out going forward? I think I was very happy that the many governments uh understood uh how serious it is and uh I was very happy to see that the countries are not taking measures uh uh the G7, G20, the the Europeans, Japanese I was last uh week with the Japanese Prime Minister Takahi and the day before with the Prime Minister Albenez in Australia, Asia hit the worst for the time being, but it will come to Europe and elsewhere. So, uh countries are now aware of the uh the problem and we are discussing uh how to tackle uh the situation best. Of course uh Nikolai I should tell you that the measures we are taking is taking all the governments are taking are important but but single most important solution is opening up the state of uh Hermus. Now the straight um hasn't been closed totally, right? It's just open for friends. Um now what do you do when these choke points uh are treated like this?

Fati: I think it is uh one of the vulnerabilities of the global energy system uh both for oil and uh gas and we are trying to look at other alteratives. One of them was uh you may know that on 11th of March I announced that the we release uh 400 million barrels of oil uh to the markets both crude oil and products. Uh as soon as it was hurt uh prices went down by uh $18 uh but of course afterwards there were many statements here and there it rebounded. We have suggested many governments to uh take some demand side measures. It is not uh easy but it is very important such as u the in working from home in some cases in some cases reducing the speed limits for cars and and uh others and uh I believe there is a need for in some cases uh some additional measures to support financially especially the the vulnerable parts of the population. But if I tell you one thing, Nikolai, we we talk about Europe a lot of in the newspapers, Japan, the I don't know, Australia, Korea, elsewhere. But the biggest problem today I see is the the emerging developing countries. They are hit the worst. uh the countries that are importing oil and gas and their economies especially now starting with Asia and it will come of course uh very soon uh to Africa, Latin America and elsewhere. This is my biggest worry.

Nicolash: How long time will it take before the effects of this is really filtering through to higher inflation? I don't know when you are releasing this uh the podcast but the next month April

Fati: in two days we are fast tracking this one. Okay.

Nicolash: You are you are really you're really hot uh you're really hot uh fat. So this is coming out straight away.

Fati: Okay. In April April will be much worse than March. Why I explain you? Because in March there were already some cargos both oil and uh gas already left before the war the Middle East and they are still coming to the ports coming to the countries and they are still bringing oil or LNG and the others and in March we already benefited from this but in April there is nothing. So it means uh without even the modest estimates we have uh now the loss of oil in April uh will be uh twice the loss of oil in March. On top of that you have the uh the LNG and others. So it will come through the inflation and then I think it will cut the economic growth in many countries and especially in emerging and developing countries where they don't have the hard currencies they may be even bigger difficult and we may well see Nikolola in many countries the rationing of energy may be coming soon. the 400 million or barrels that you released uh it's roughly 20% of reserves right what when what would it take for you to

Nicolash: recommend further releases

Fati: so uh we are assessing the market uh on a daily if not hourly basis 247 if we think there is a need crude or product uh we may well intervene I will make a suggestion to governments in that direction. The biggest problem today is the uh the lack of jet fuel and diesel. These are the main uh challenges and it is we are seeing it already in in Asia but uh soon it comes to I think in April it will come to uh Europe or maybe beginning of uh May and therefore I am assessing the situation with my colleagues and uh when the time is ripe I will make the decision to uh to make a suggestion to the government. Is there a point where these draw downs go from being stabilizing to destabilizing?

Fati: I think currently it is stabilizing. Uh but uh as I said this is only uh I mean this is 400 million bars is the the largest we ever made in the history. It is two times more than for example when Russia invaded Ukraine as a result of this crisis. But I have to be very honest uh Nikolai. This is only helping to reduce the pain. It will not a cure. The cure is opening up the uh state of hormones. This is the single most important issue. We are just helping uh to reduce the pain and gaining some time maybe in other words if I may say so. Uh but I don't uh claim that this will be a solution. uh our uh stocks.

Nicolash: What do you think about um European governments which subsidize energy bills for its citizens?

Fati: I think if it is if it is uh done in a targeted way and in a temporary way this may well be a solution. You know what is the problem in Europe? There are many problems in Europe but one of the problems is because of this. Now first of all Europe was the I talk with many government leaders around the world but I think Europe uh I say reflex was a bit slower than the others. It is an Asia issue. It is a Middle East issue. No no no it is a energy markets are global. Come on. Energy markets are global. So the first issue is Europeans needed to understand the governments that uh it's a major issue coming to Europe very soon. So we had to shake up the European uh uh governments and what is happening in Europe is that the gas Europe is buying a lot of gas from the spot markets and today the Asian governments uh Asian buyers since they cannot have the LNG coming from Middle East they are jumping on the spot markets. It is where Europe normally gets. So therefore the prices of gas is going up in Europe. And since the European electricity prices are uh uh based on the marginal cost of natural gas prices, electricity prices will go up. So we will have in Europe high gas prices and high electricity prices. And uh therefore I think it is in my view it is important that the governments in Europe uh do support the vulnerable parts of the uh uh uh the population targeted support but a temporary one. What I'm afraid is Nikolai maybe just making one step on the politics which is not my the professional uh occupation but I have to say this what I am afraid in Europe is that the this high energy prices may give a fertile ground uh for extreme political thinking to abuse in just before the some of the important elections going to happen in Europe. So just a a side remark but I think it is important uh to register here.

Nicolash: You've urged uh European governments not to ease restrictions on Russian gas, right?

Fati: Yeah.

Nicolash: Um

Fati: yeah.

Nicolash: Do you think that's realistic if this continues into the next winter?

Fati: I think for three reasons I I told them. First one is technically it is not uh almost not possible. So the north steam one there was a sabotage and is it is technically not intact. No steam 2 didn't get the licensing yet from Germans. The others are too small. Economically the Russian gas was mainly indexed oil prices and with this high oil prices we have now Russian gas will be also expensive. And the third and the in my view maybe the most important one this I am telling this nuclear since almost 25 years. I was a chief economist before in this organization. I am saying since that time over reliance on Russia was a big mistake. We made this mistake. We paid for it. But one time it's a mistake. If you make a second time, it's not a mistake.

Nicolash: LG was part of the solution uh last time. Now it's kind of part of the problem. Um how is the dynamics of the LG market changing? I think the LG is uh in general gas industry may suffer a bit of a reputational damage. Why I'm saying this is that the gas is presented and rightly so is a reliable, affordable and flexible option. But now 2022 Russia gas and now today in my view may cast a long shadow on the gas industry. So I think gas industry has to work uh hard in order to uh prove that the they are still reliable. they are they will be affordable and they are flexible. I think uh a few countries fuse uh may uh lose some uh uh credit some image from uh this what happened and the gas industry may suffer. I don't know if temporary or not but I see this happening. Of course, when we look at the structural terms, there will be some uh others who can win from this uh uh uh this uh crisis uh in the long term and it my in my personal view this may well uh reshape the global energy markets in the next years uh to come.

Fati: I think the LG is uh in general gas industry may suffer a bit of a reputational damage. Why I'm saying this is that the gas is presented and rightly so is a reliable, affordable and flexible option. But now 2022 Russia gas and now today in my view may cast a long shadow on the gas industry. So I think gas industry has to work uh hard in order to uh prove that the they are still reliable. they are they will be affordable and they are flexible. I think uh a few countries fuse uh may uh lose some uh uh credit some image from uh this what happened and the gas industry may suffer. I don't know if temporary or not but I see this happening. Of course, when we look at the structural terms, there will be some uh others who can win from this uh uh uh this uh crisis uh in the long term and it my in my personal view this may well uh reshape the global energy markets in the next years uh to come.

Nicolash: In um IA you don't really publish forecasts any longer. You talk about different scenarios, right?

Fati: Exactly.

Nicolash: Uh if you were to look at uh first the best case scenario for the Middle East, what does it look like?

Fati: I think the Middle East countries uh did suffer will suffer. And when I say Middle East, I may maybe make a distinction between countries like Iraq, Lebanon and Bahrain, they will hit the most. The other countries Saudi Arabia, the Gulf countries, Emirates, Kuwait, they will recover uh quickly. Let me just tell you Iraq for example. In Iraq, 90% of the government revenues come from the uh uh from uh selling oil and today Iraq revenues came to very very low levels and with this government revenues they pay the the salaries of the people working there and the pensions and it's about 15 million people. So and Iraq to recover will be much more difficult than the Saudis or the the Emirates will recover. So uh there is a like gas industry in general. Europe, Middle East countries need to uh make a lot of effort to regain their reputation as a reliable uh supplier and uh this may take some time. Uh but they did some wonders in the in magic in the past and they may make it again. But I would definitely uh distinguish the the countries with the lower capacity such as Iraq, Vizavi, the others.

Nicolash: What does the worst case scenario look like here? I think the worst case

Fati: scenario is the the state of Horus continues uh to be closed and this may well lead to major damage on the global economy and this damage might be the worst for the emerging and developing countries which has nothing to do with this problem creating this problem. they are not a part of this problem this way or another but they may suffer uh the most. This is the for me the uh the the worst case. Remember the 1970s the many countries uh fell into the the the foreign debt uh spiral and this had many implications economic political social implications. I am more uh worried that front but I hope uh this will never be the case and before uh too long state of hormos uh starts to run and we can start to recover but again Nikolai we have to also think worldwide we are taking some short-term measures we will take but there will be some long-term structural reactions to this issue in the in the crisis in the energy world.

Nicolash: Tell us about them. Right. Because we will could see changes in the in the renewables, nuclear and so on. But uh could you just lay out what do you think will be the changes?

Fati: I it is too early to give very specific things but what I think is when I look at the 19 uh 1970s I look at these things very carefully. There were at least three important many changes but three important changes. one nuclear power nuclear power uh there was a big wave of as a response oil crisis big wave of nuclear built about 170 gawatt and this is about the 40% of the nuclear power plants we have today were built as a response to the oil crisis in Europe in Japan Korea US Canada and elsewhere this is this was number one number two in car industry. Before the 1970s, a car an average car needed about 20 L to drive 100 kilometers. But afterwards, fuel efficiency standards came as a response to this crisis and very soon it was uh 10 lit you uh need to uh use for 100 km. It was soft. The third one was uh related to also of course uh Norway and other countries domestic production. The North Sea the biggest growth in North Sea came as a response to this oil crisis because the higher prices and the governments gave a tax incentives and the licensing very speed. So at least three things happen and this time what I expect is of course very generally again I said four years ago in fact uh that the nuclear is going to make a comeback and this comeback will be even stronger nuclear both traditional and small motor reactors. Second, I expect especially in Asia the electrification transportation sector uh this will come and I also expect the renewables will be growing with batteries even faster. In addition to those, I wouldn't be surprised in some cases temporary, in some cases even longer term, coal may make a a big push in China, in Indonesia, in in India as a response to high natural gas uh prices. So these are some uh some uh uh areas that we may think as a response to this crisis uh more nuclear electrification, transportation sector, faster renewables and maybe coal and other domestic energy production.

Nicolash: Well, let's um unpack uh uh each of these. Um so as we electrify everything are we building more vulnerable systems or more resilient systems? So it depends

Fati: on how you do it because uh if you make a electrification of uh the the energy systems and we we will still use oil and gas many years to come but I don't know if you heard Nikolai I'm saying since uh almost one and a half years we are entering the age of electricity because electricity demand is growing two times faster than the total energy demand. uh it is coming the AI the data centers drivers the the electric cars and everything we need to build grids resilient grids around the world but this would mean uh one of my worries is the increasing number of cyber attacks on the on the uh power systems that we have to be careful because the world is becoming a dangerous place and the energy system is unfortunately uh uh at the target of many uh bad actors uh in the world.

Nicolash: What do you think is the biggest systemic risk in the electrified energy system? One thing is uh most more innocent one uh government failure not having enough grids.

Fati: Mhm.

Fati: Because uh uh last year uh the world uh built huge amount of renewables added huge amount of renewables in the grids but four times of this renewables which were added to the grids and our electric system was waiting idle because they were not enough grid capacity. they are they finished the solar panel the wind but they don't have any grits this is one risk I see and one problem the other problem in addition to grid problem is as I mentioned the cyber security cyber attacks on the uh grids uh this is my very and our numbers show that the they are both in terms of their intensity and in terms of their frequency they are increasing

Nicolash: we bought uh 25% of uh you know one of the grid operators in Germany what would it take to uh attract more capital into this sector?

Fati: I think you uh have to work. Of course I don't talk about any company uh but I think if we want uh grits and grits related investment uh to be stronger there is a need for governments to see the need and make it attractive for the uh for the uh for the investors and currently or in the last few years unfortunately governments didn't the governments give a push to building renewables or power plants But they forgot that we need grids to bring this electricity from this power plants to the household to the industry. It is time for them. But if the governments take it seriously, they have to uh put the investment framework to make it attractive for the investors and they have to facilitate simplify the licensing and permitting processes. These two things would be needed.

Nicolash: I've seen numbers which indicates electricity demand up uh 40% by 2035. Um how much can can the infrastructure actually cope with?

Fati: I think the the issues today unlike we thought or the world thought in the past the issue is not building power plants because solar wind or gas or whatever you build is not so difficult. The difficult part is now we are not coping with as the world not only Europe as the world is building grids. This is the Achilles heel of the age of electricity in my view. You also mentioned coal. What does the coal scenario look like?

Fati: Coal scenario means in fact China scenario because about 55% of the coal today is used in China. 45% everybody else uh put uh together uh and coal demand was more or less uh flat in the last few years and we were expecting to be flat and slightly going down but with this uh crisis we are in I wouldn't be surprised if we see a uh uptick in the uh coal uh use around the world starting with China but also other parts of the world in the United States we see the call uh uses uh uh uh rebounding and I wouldn't be surprised and uh even in even in European countries uh the uh in this uh rather urgent situation countries would use make use of their coal reserves

Nicolash: and then on nuclear Europe has spent uh two decades building down its nuclear capacity I M how big mistake how big mistake has that been

Fati: Nicolola I for Europe I think we made in Europe three historically strategic mistake and one of them was I mentioned to you over reliance on one single country for a very important commodity which is gas and Russia the second one is the nuclear in the end of 1990s about one/ird of the European electricity came from nuclear and it is going down now about 15%. We turn our back in Europe to nuclear power. It was a historical uh mistake for me. Now we are in every country even in France. In France when President Mron uh took the office he had the coalition here and he the government program was bringing the nuclear share from 75% down to 50%. At that time they asked me the the the French newspapers what do you think I it is something like selling the Ael tower to somebody else. I mean this is because the national asset of France. Uh many countries made mistake. uh so this was second mistake and third one is today uh when you look at the world uh Nikolai which I am doing every day 2025 of all power plants installed in the world of all of them 75% was solar and this is mainly now solar is manufactured in China but 25 years ago it was Europe that started the solar panels building solar panels But then they dropped the ball and China took it over and now China is dominating the game. So these three mistakes for Europe the reliance over reliance on Russia the turning our back to nuclear power and such a important technology like solar dropping the ball costed us a lot in terms of our competitiveness in terms of our economic security and I would say foreign policy.

Nicolash: if you were to uh expand on that and also include um our Europe's market position in uh in batteries where um you know CL alone nearly has 40% of the market um what do you think Nikolai we build a major technology uh department and we follow about 600 technologies on day-to-day basis what is their market position How much they advance, how economics they are, penetration, deployment. If you ask me fat, you choose one of them. You have a magic vent. You touch it and it become tomorrow economic and widely used around the world. Which one you choose? There are many of them. But I would choose batteries. Why batteries? Because it will change many things. It will change the the renewable uh dynamics. it will change the the dynamics of the transportation sector. But uh Europe is behind uh China uh today. But for the advanced batteries, there is a chance for Europe to come back. And I am in discussion with the European uh governments. And I see that Europe is now uh looking at this option, the advanced new butter technologies uh to be one of the front runners and I think this will be a good thing for European economic security and competitiveness.

Fati: what do you think Nikolai we build a major technology uh department and we follow about 600 technologies on day-to-day basis what is their market position How much they advance, how economics they are, penetration, deployment. If you ask me fat, you choose one of them. You have a magic vent. You touch it and it become tomorrow economic and widely used around the world. Which one you choose? There are many of them. But I would choose batteries. Why batteries? Because it will change many things. It will change the the renewable uh dynamics. it will change the the dynamics of the transportation sector. But uh Europe is behind uh China uh today. But for the advanced batteries, there is a chance for Europe to come back. And I am in discussion with the European uh governments. And I see that Europe is now uh looking at this option, the advanced new butter technologies uh to be one of the front runners and I think this will be a good thing for European economic security and competitiveness.

Nicolash: I mean the technology advances in battery is astonishing, right? just uh latest version and AI AI artificial intelligence will help to uh to accelerate this.

Fati: So um electrical vehicles um Europe again had uh a good start now uh the western world is retrenching on ambitions here. Um what are what are going to be the implications? So u

Fati: I will give you one number. Sorry if I give you too many numbers because I am a man of data. So I am this is just to uh so five years ago 5% of all the cars sold in the world was electric. 5% 5 years ago and last year it was 25% of all the cars sold in the world is electric. This will go very quickly. This will go very quickly. It is China is the leader of course by far but European car manufacturers of course may have some time need some flexibility for sure but it is very clear for me it is very clear for me the transportation sector's future is electric and what happened we coming back to beginning of our discussion Nikolai what happened uh in Middle East the war in my view will only accelerate this. But how and when uh Europe will follow uh this uh uh trend is uh under discussion. But I believe if the European uh companies uh want to be uh still leading companies uh in the world and they still want to if they still want to be part of the uh the competition globally uh the the future is electric and I'm saying cars but soon if we make another podcast in two years of time we will talk about trucks electric trucks it it will also very soon. I follow this very closely. China is making a lot of uh advancements here. So therefore in my view uh the future of transportation sector is electric in most part of the world. In some countries it may be even uh it may be different uh internal combustion engines maybe in the in some parts of North America in Latin America but the globally when I look at the the biggest markets uh the Asia especially including developing Asia developing Asia I think the electric cars uh will be penetrating the car markets even faster than it was before after this crisis.

Nicolash: Now if we if we add together everything we spoke about so far. So uh you know the the gas the oil the nuclear the batteries uh the transmission all these things uh the end result is that European electricity prices are two to three times higher than the US and way higher than China for instance. What are the implications for Europe as an industrial power?

Fati: I think Europe's uh competitiveness is at stake and uh I believe there are some uh legacy industries in Europe that we the Europe European governments need to uh support this way or another. But some of them may not be able to compete with the others especially those very energy intensive ones because uh from today to tomorrow this price differential in terms of energy will not change. But Europe on one hand in my view should support some of the selected important legacy industries but at the same time should have a a road map for tomorrow's industries uh and push them strongly tomorrow's industries ranging from the artificial intelligence to clean energy technologies and and others. So we have two jobs to do in Europe in my view. The legacy industry which one we should stick support and continue to be part of our economy. And the second one is that how we can foster and which of the tomorrow's technologies we can help we should work along those lines. I believe I should also mention this because there is a I'm sure you know as a major investor there is a lot of Europe bashing Europe pessimism I also think that Europe has very strong economic fundamentals being a 450 million a single market being a democracy being an a a a a continent which attracts a lot of investments exports imports trade uh I think with the right policies in terms of the industrial policies uh combined with the right energy policies uh Europe can go through this uh difficult times.

Nicolash: Just um any reflection on the link between AI and electricity prices and then back to AI. I guess AI demand is in is uh you know increasing energy prices but at the same time higher energy prices is really very very important going forward in terms of the usage of AI it's a huge input cost in the whole thing right

Fati: definitely Nicolola I don't know how much you know about the IA we are in fact a modest really modest organization if you wish we can talk about IA but we we have chosen uh 4 years ago AI to be a key topic to focus. Why? Very simple because there is no AI without electricity. Full stop. So one data center just one mediumsiz data center consumes electricity as much as a town with 100,000 households and you need electricity 24/7. Okay. So, and there's a big race in AI and there are three big guys here, US, China and Europe. There are other guys as well, but these are three big ones. And in my view, AI is perhaps the most consequential technological innovation of humanity up to now. My personal view and who will win this race among these three will be determined by two factors. One is the technology the the the the soft part of the thing and the second one is the availability and the price of electricity. Maybe I am energy guy I exate too much but if you don't have a lot of electricity and if you don't have it cheap and if you don't have it quick then you may be a bit behind your uh competitors. So the countries who have a lot of electricity, cheap electricity able to bring it to the data centers will be a few steps in front of the uh others and I see that Europe has to work a lot in the second part. Technologies part okay but also in the electricity part maybe harder than US and much harder than uh China.

Nicolash: Fat, you guys uh have got a lot of things right, but uh you got a couple of things uh quite wrong too, right? Uh in particular the the speed of the clean energy transition.

Fati: First of we got a lot of critics. This is our daily life from investors from governments. Some people unlike the opposite what you said that we were too we are too optimistic when it comes to clean energy and it is good to hear your balancing view from you saying that we were too pessimistic. So what we are doing is Nikolai we have different projects different uh uh scenarios and uh different options and uh what we have said in the past we were once once we have in fact 10 years ago we were rather conservative in terms of penetration of solar power. China surprised everybody. It is not the worst but China surprise everybody with their thing but except for that I think we got today's solar wind everything nuclear power oil gas everything just uh right but we don't pretend to get everything right we just put the uh data on the table if we are wrong we say we were wrong we change it if we are right we don't underline uh too much uh we are uh I my I tell my colleagues I have a slogan a moto Data always wins. Sometimes it takes some time but at the end of the day data always wins. We put the data and the facts on the table uh the governments and the investors industry to decide.

Nicolash: What would you say about your predictions for fossil fuel production? How how how right have you been on those

Fati: fossil fuel production? I mean we were right in the how the gas demand was. We were completely right on the oil front. For example, we said that oil demand will slow down because of the China slowing down its economy and the penetration of electric cars. Coal we said plate it plate renewables we saw that the renewables are growing very strongly. So it is the reason we instead of making predictions there are so many uncertainties we make different scenarios. If you go this way this is the result and these are the consequences. But if you want to go this way, these are the results and these are the consequences. We have different projections and different uh options for the policy makers around the world.

Nicolash: Now Norway of course we made um um money from oil and gas which is you know what we do in this fund is to to manage that for for the next generations. Uh disregarding uh politics just from a system perspective should Norway continue to explore for uh more oil and gas

Fati: it is completely up to the Norwegian government and Norwegian people to decide but I want to say a few things because I don't know if you know I know Norway a bit I I visit Norway a lot and I like the Norwegian energy people and I like also the Norwegian football bod this is team that very similar to how I run the IA. By the way, I can tell you more about this. So, u I when I talk with my Norwegian friends, I have a lot of I said that you feel so guilty for no reason. So, you are a country which provides energy security. When Russia invaded Ukraine, Norway was there to support uh Europe. you are in terms of climate change. Uh Norway is one of the countries who has a very ambitious program in terms of helping the developing countries in terms of the aid. Norway is there and your prime minister when I run a program on the clean cooking in Africa. He was there to support uh me. So I think Norway is doing a good job and also in domestic energy system is very clean and we have electric cars. You don't have to feel uh guilty. You have to be proud uh to what you do in the global energy security, European energy security, what you do the the climate change and what you do for helping the poor including Africa around the world. So I would say I wish there were many Norways around the world to be honest with you but there were not. They are not. If there were many Norways the situation today we are in would be less problematic than it is now. And I said it before I said it now.

Nicolash: What are the similarities between bordered limp and IA?

Fati: Okay there is one similarity and one not similarity. We are I mean you may think I talks with the global world leaders and when we make a report look you just mentioned uh everybody talks about this I mean we there are 18 reports like that nobody not not there are not many interest in the others but in the when is the report coming what is the prediction it is three or five we are an organization with a core budget of 22 million I mean this is nothing €22 million and the others people making the projections and other work 10 times 20 times 100 times more more than us with a very small budget we made uh miracles in my view why because we have excellent teamwork this is a similarity with bodim and for the colleagues who don't know bodimp is a Norwegian football team which wrote the history in my mind not the similarity which is not similar is that bodimp left in the the Champions League, we are still the I still the champion in the the energy world. So this is the this is a small difference there.

Nicolash: Fat, that's a great place to end. Uh you are still the champion in the energy world. Uh you know hopefully that will continue for many years and uh you're for sure doing a great job. Big thank you for taking the time.

Fati: Thank you. Take care. Bye-bye.