All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close. It is the last day of October and we are ending out the month of October. Two months left of the year and it looks like folks we are going to get a green close to the end of the day. Thank you everybody for being here. We got a lot to talk about. Lots of headlines since we were live on the market open.

If you take a look right here at the S&P 500 up about half a percent on the day which is not too bad. 68405. It looks like Palanteer will give us the $200 close. We got 13 minutes left. Hopefully we get that close above 200. We did dip all the way to 197. So the fact that it's coming back above 200 is very nice to see. Robin Hood dipped to 43, back to 147. Not too bad. Google relatively flat on the day at 281. AMD's up 1%. SoFi is up 1.5. I mean, it's been a pretty flat day since the market open. Amazon 246 did lose a little bit of love, but still holding that 10% move, which is incredible for a hyperscaler.

Now, Meta, they are absolutely taking to town. I did not buy more Meta. 649 down 2.48% on the day. They put it at 645 at one point. I didn't think they would let it break 650. It seems like there is a deep structural concern about capex and we'll talk more about Meta and it has to go deeper than the surface level concerns if the street is this scared on a green day on the last day of the month for Meta. Now you probably have a lot of options that are expiring today as well. So it could just be ALOS but uh Meta right here 649 that one is down another 2% of the day.

Bitcoin will end red for October. I mean we do have um what nine 10 more hours in the day. So maybe Bitcoin, if it gets a $5,000 candle, will be able to hold up, but if it does go red, it will be the first red October, not really October for Bitcoin, uh, for the first time in six years. So, it's one thing to look out for. We do have about nine more hours to see how Bitcoin closes. Ethereum right there at 3,800.

So, look, I mean, overall, it's been an incredible month. It's been a wild month. We had a lot of different things happen this month, this entire week with the Fed cuts, big tech earnings, etc. has been kind of crazy, but I do think it has been a strong month for the stock market, if we do end green today, which it looks like we will, it'll be six months of green in a row. The resiliency of the market is something to be commended. And those who bought the dip when it was time to buy the dip, whether it was October 10th or October 17th, variety of days this month that definitely test the conviction, uh, you are being rewarded.

And we got an Elon and Rogan podcast for Halloween. Here's Elon talking about flying cars. of the the future was supposed to have flying cars, but we don't have flying cars. >> So, you're going to be able to fly? >> Well, I mean, uh, I think if Peter wants a flying car, we should should be able to buy one. >> He's talking about Peter Teal. >> So, you are you actively considering making an electric flying car? Is this like a real thing? >> Well, I have to see in the >> in the demo. So when you do this, like are are you going to have a retractable wing? Like what is the idea behind this? >> Don't be sly. Come on. >> I I I can't I can't uh do the unveil before the unveil. Um but um >> tell me off air then. I I I it h look I I think it has a shot at being the most memorable um product unveil ever. It has a shot. So there you go. Some uh nice threeh hour Halloween action with Mr. Joe Rogan and Elon Musk. I mean there's been rumors of this flying car roadster collaboration for a long time. So Elon kind of just bringing those back and who knows maybe we get that going into the next five years.

We did have Tom Leon. Uh he was in the Middle East traveling this entire week, which is why we didn't hear too much from him. But here is what he just said about 30 minutes ago on what is the state of this bull market and why he continues to be bullish on what we've got going on.

>> Great to see you, Scott. I'm going to take issue like I did last time with an a comment that you gave to our producers. Tom, you think it's still the quote most hated rally? I I just don't know how that still holds water given where we are. I mean, I I I interview people all day every day. I've got no bears around. >> Well, um I mean, maybe some of the bears have gone to hiding, Scott, but because the last time we talked, I wanted to give you some quantitative stats. Um, if you take AAI, which I think is one of the best surveys of high netw worth retail investors, it's averaged - 11.7 this year, negative 11.7. There have only been three other times in that survey's 35-year history where the year-to- date average has been negative. It was 1990, 2002, and 2022. So um all those times have actually been associated with bare markets and and so sentiment has averaged this year what's consistent with a bare market. So it is the most hated V-shaped rally. Now there may be some people who say they're no longer bearish but their P&L doesn't reflect that.

>> No, that that that that may be fair. Um, which leads us to the potential of a chase into year end when they realize that what's at stake for them if they're not engaged. >> That's right. And we know 80% of fund managers are trailing their respective benchmark this year. It's the worst in almost 25 years. So, uh, and now they're given two things to work with. One is that seasonally November's a good month, so it should be a positive month. And as far as earnings go and and you guys had a conversation about it um earlier today, margins have been improving despite tariffs. And so it's showing you that companies, I think, using AI are able to expand profit margins. That's actually a a pretty good tailwind because the tariff headwinds are fading, but the benefits from AI margin benefits are still going to grow.

>> Yeah. Um, one thing to keep in mind is that, you know, if you look at Fed fund futures, it's still projecting a cut in December. I think Fed Chair Powell in his statements did give you a window for why it's possible. One is he did acknowledge that inflation's effect from tariffs is less than they expected. And despite a lot of Fed governors talking about inflation widening, that's not the case. Um when you look at the the CPI report in September, it was the highest percentage of components, 54% that were in outright deflation. So it's it's in fact inflation is falling like a rock. And the second was he acknowledged that rates aren't accommodative. They're just less restrictive. And so in a case where there's falling inflation and if if jobs markets weakening, I think that that's a good reason for cuts to happen. And in a way that's good for equities.

>> Yeah. Well, I'm going to do something that the Fed won't will not want to do, which is be a little forward-looking. But we have a government shutdown that's continuing that is causing even things like air traffic to slow and inflation isn't going to be gaining strength in a period like that. So, if the Fed was acknowledging inflation's weakening now, I think it's even weaker in December at a time when the labor market is is suffering. So, I I I think if those if someone thinks the odds have dropped because of what the Fed said, I just think the data would support a very opposite picture. >> And you still like 7,000 at least between now and the end of the year. I mean, we closed above 6,900 the other day. So, we're well on our way, it would appear. >> Yeah, that's right. And uh but it probably makes sense for people to be aware that because October was so strong, we we have to consolidate some of those gains in the first half of the of November. And Mark Newton, our technician, does think it's it that we're going to be entering a period of chop. So 7,000, yes, makes sense. And it's just going to be bumpy in the next couple of weeks.

So look, a lot of things Tom said right there I think make a lot of sense. We got four minutes until the market closes. Number one, I think the Fed is trying to just get the market to not be over excited for a December rate cut. But the number one reason, which I 1,000% agree with on Tom, on why we would get that rate cut, uh, is that we have a government shutdown and we have a weak labor market. And naturally, if the fear on a December rate cut is that we have inflation because of tariffs, well, if we have a labor market slowdown and we have a government shutdown in which people aren't getting paid, guess what? If people aren't getting paid as much, they're not going to be able to consume, which will naturally be deflationary. So from that perspective, I think it is very unlikely that we don't get a December cut. I mean, something would have to change in the macro in a meaningful way uh for that to take place.

And then number two, the AI investor survey that he talks about is legit. I mean, I looked at the stats he was looking at and the last three times we had uh the investor sentiment be as skewed as it is to the bearish side, we're in bare markets. We are obviously not in a bare market, but the fact that people are acting like we are through that investor survey and if you don't even want to look at that investor survey, just look at what Mr. Michael Bur posted yesterday essentially claiming that this is a bubble. And so when you've got that level of excitement on wanting to call that it's toppy, it's bubbish, etc. by ignoring the earnings growth that we have seen all week, Amazon just growing AWS at 20%. I think that's actually very productive for the bull case because it means there is enough healthy skepticism that's out there to go higher.

First of all, Trump was speaking with uh some reporters as he landed in Florida. A couple things he said he's willing to meet with the Democrats. All Democrats have to do is open the government as he was speaking to reporters when he arrived in Florida. So, you do have the president trying to get this shutdown to be done. Now, one thing that's really important about the shutdown and this is something that uh started getting alerted a couple of hours ago because we are getting to the point where you know it matters is uh SNAP benefits. So, we are getting to the point where the government's going to have to start tapping some emergency funds to to navigate benefits that the country is going to have to pay out to people that are on those benefits. There's an update on that... a federal judge is saying, "You need to go ahead and use that." A Massachusetts judge, on the other hand, also seems to be leaning in the direction that the government will need to provide SNAP benefits somehow, that they cannot cut off the program... Now, this is going to be really important because there are Americans that have those food benefits and the Trump administration by cutting off those food benefits obviously was going to get a lot of people angry at the Democrats, right? The whole point is like if you can get your constituents to get mad at the people that are shutting down the country from the Republicans's perspective, then you could possibly get them to come to the negotiating table. Well, you got federal judges saying you're not going to be allowed to do that because people need to eat and you have to find a way to fund the way for people to get the funding for them to eat via these SNAP benefits. And as a result, it continues to complicate the picture when it comes to the shutdown.

One bullish stat for Bitcoin is this. US money supply rose 4.5% year-over-year in September 2025 to a record 22.2 trillion. This is a 19th consecutive monthly increase that happens in tandem with the United States likely um stopping quantitative tightening, which is what JPAL said a couple days ago... What does this mean? This means you have to own assets. The more money that is out there, the less the dollar actually matters. Which means you have to own something that preserves the value of the dollar in the first place, which has to either be a stock, a piece of land, piece of property, uh, or a commodity. You know, that's kind of the buckets you can put it into, or a cryptocurrency, and that's likely what you're seeing across the entire equity markets.

By the way, speaking of protecting your money, take a look at this. I didn't even see this this morning, but Coinbase on their earnings disclosed that they bought another 100 million of Ethereum. So, they now have 617 million of Ethereum on their treasury. They also bought more Bitcoin. The other thing that's really important about Ethereum is that they have base, which is their L2 underneath Ethereum. So, Coinbase is scaling their architecture on an Ethereum's blockchain as well. And as a result, you know, to me, I think this is also very bullish Ethereum and BMR long term as the most important financial companies in the world. Whether it's Robin Hood or Coinbase are embracing that new financial system that is playing out which is also nice to see.

This was the CEO COO of the company, Chief Operating Officer, Alex Hungate. Here's what he had to say about how Grab is embracing AI... the good news is that Grab is already quite a big AI player. We run about 10,000 AI models already. Uh which makes us probably one of the bigger ones in the region. Um, and a function that we already play is we bridge between the large foundation models which are being produced largely out of the US at the moment and then we make them more relevant for Southeast Asia. We're the only lighthouse partner for OpenAI in the region which means we get access to foundational models as soon as they're ready but before the official releases and then we fine-tune them.

When we first got the um the 40 model, we tried to use it for speech recognition because we were targeting to help the visually impaired to be able to use the app better. It only worked 45% of the time for Southeast Asia and that was in English... So we we've had about 120,000 Southeast Asians have given us voice samples. So now it's 92% accuracy, which is not too bad actually... Another role is we're trying to improve the productivity of our drivers by giving them uh what we call co-pilot... for the merchants, we're trying to help them with a merchant chat, what we call merchant chatbot, which has been phenomenal... And the chat boys say, "Hey, don't worry sis, you're doing well. Keep it up." It was so endearing. It's like it's like AI with heart, you know.

So I think there's a lot to unpack there but at its core you know there are a variety of different AI verticals that grab is stepping into particularly from the use cases of people that quite frankly depend on a platform like that. They don't have a CMO or a CFO or a entire team to help them grow a business. And from that perspective, when you take a large language model and fine-tune it to the context specific arenas of what Grab should be making it useful for, which is the whole point, right? How can we get a use case for these models that make sense? ...that's what I think is the broader network effect that the company is developing over the long term.

Matt, what's up, sir? ... All right. Well, I think I'll get started with uh my first question right here which is a journey we have been part of for a long time. Palunteer at 200o. I mean just how are you thinking of uh of this stock at this level? >> Uh I either bought more today or yesterday I think. Um yeah. So, I mean, not buying a lot, right? Just the monthly buys that I always have. Every time I get a paycheck, I just... I just think that there's a lot to to be released still, like AI, FTE, a lot of a lot of great products that I don't think have been fully rolled out as of yet. And when that does actually come through, I think we're going to see a lot of efficiency gains in a lot of different companies. Um, I mean, the the ops margins for Palanteer are continuing to do well. I anticipate and and I think Arie had a really good post earlier talking about how he thinks that that's going to be a good story coming up this this uh this quarter as well, but I'm more so concerned about how many more small contracts we can get, right?

>> I think the cool thing about it is you and I both as the company started rising and its price felt the valuation was getting aggressive and we were pretty transparent about that... But it's it's almost all of us have been humbled by the fact that the execution is so strong and now it's like oh at some point you got to buy if you want more of it, right? >> Yeah. I mean I look at it in a different way, right? I was talking to somebody about this yesterday. They're like are you like what do you think? Like should I sell here? Whatever. And first and foremost I think when people think about this, right? If they've been in it like you and I have and they have shares, let's say at the $67 8 range and then they sell here at 200, they're going to have to pay, you know, pretty much uh 15 to 20% depending on what tax bracket uh for federal tax um on long-term capital gains. So before they enter even back in, the stock is going to have to go down to uh to at least $160 before they even make an entry back in... But so anyway, going back into the real the real aspect of it, I I just the the the the execution that I continue to see out of the company, you know, five years ago, I thought it was going to be 150 to20 billion dollar company. And since then... it got to a trillion dollar valuation and and and more recently I've moved it to a trillion and a half... but if you think about in that respect, it's like we're only at a 500 billion compared to that 1.5. Yeah. And then there's going to be buybacks and and so many other things along the way, it's like when you have opportunities like this of certainty, right? Why bet against certainty?

>> I think that 26 will be a good year, but I think it'll be I think we're entering the the latter half of the this very extreme bullish easy money stage. Now, it could run into 27... Amazon's investing over 100 billion. They're going to invest over 125 billion before the year end. And and Meta is investing a lot of money as well. So, all these companies, but they keep talking about expanding the amount of capital that they're going to plow in... I don't think that we're in this, you know, unless that the income really starts to come through and the cash flow really starts to come through, I think we're going to start hitting a wall a bit. And I'm not, when I say wall, it makes it seem more extreme. I'm not bearish by any means. I'm not saying sell these things, but I'm just saying there's going to be some backlash associated with when we actually hit and we can't grow capital expenditure... I think that we're going to see who has the best management in the next two to three years and and who to really stick to.

>> Why do you think Amazon was able to surprise the street as well as they did? Well, I think the the ease of Amazon was kind of easy to tell because, you know, I think first and foremost... you're seeing an acceleration AWS and I think it was inevitable, right? You're increasing capital expenditure to over hundred billion dollars in the trailing 12 months... but I think in other pieces is that the valuation for Amazon has continued to contract for quite some time. Like it's trading at a a price to earnings multiple similar to uh or less than Google... I think there there is no forward growth assumed for Amazon in my opinion. If they if you were to look at a quality business like Amazon, even if it's just growing at a at a decent pace of 5 to 10% a year, you should be giving it a uh you know, easily at 20x to 25x multiple... And to me, it's a margin story. And you heard Andy Jasse talk about it uh on the call himself... they're going to be at a trillion and a half dollars of revenue here pretty soon. If they get that to a 25% operating margin, I mean, the ops cash that's going to be flown off on that is is going to be monumental... there's no reason why this company should be trading at $6 trillion in the next couple years. Yeah.

>> Are you at all interested in Meta now with a 15% dip? >> I am now a shareholder of one share. Um, you inspired me... The thing that I'm actually most bullish about and it's actually a video I made... I was very bullish when the company changed from Facebook to Meta. And I don't think that we fully grasp even though it's still losing a crap ton of money. I don't think that we fully grasp what Reality Labs will do in the future. And I um I think that that will play a huge piece into how things operate.

>> Steve, you're kind of late, buddy... overall thoughts on uh this week, sixth month in a row green for the S&P 500. >> I mean, I don't think there's any way we're not getting to 7,000 at this point. >> I agree. >> Unless something happens with China. I mean, I just I don't see that we're going to get a big retracement or anything. And Nvidia is likely going to have great numbers... I think Meta, look, if you looked at my article, it's more of what I said last night. I think it's a huge opportunity right now. I think Amazon's a huge

>> I just don't know that we can go against the most brilliant minds in the country. >> I'm with you. >> That's Oh no. buyback slow down for a little bit. who freaking like in the grand scheme of things if this was shortterm money I would be like you know what maybe this isn't such a great idea but over the next f they're they're building this out for the next 5 10 15 years and when you think about how they're deploying capex if they fall behind and they're wrong you're their profitability is off the table in the future so I would rather them spend the capex and cut the buybacks by 20% or so because this is the next leg of future profitability and I would be willing to take that as a shareholder. So I'm just not willing to go against big tech right now.

Okay, this is this is what Mr. Kramer had to say about Palunteer. >> Palanteer, are you as impressed with Alex Karp as he is with himself? >> All right. So, >> I find him to be really interesting. I'm not long the stock... >> he's like a horrible guy, but I think he's real. I think that and I say that because like like all the companies that have hired him, the big ones, I've called them and I said, "How is it?" And they all to a person say, "Listen, it's pretty good." >> I mean, he's on fire. That business is on fire. >> It's on fire, >> but is it too expensive even given how on fire they are? >> Um, >> it seems crazy to me. >> It is rule of 80. Uh, I think I'm going to end up It's gonna go >> They're killing rule of 80. >> They're they're they're killing it.

All right. Thank you, everybody. Appreciate it. Congrats on a great week. Uh, sixth month in the row. Green for the S&P. Pounder above 200. Fed cut rates. Big tech crushed it. Amazon crushed it. Google amazing. So, pretty strong week for everybody. We are entering November tomorrow. Me and Matt will be live at 11 PM for Pounder Weekly. I'll be live Sunday for the future show at 7:45 and we'll keep going from there. Thank you. Thank you everybody. Have a good one. We'll see you guys later tonight. See you everybody soon. See you later. Bye everyone.