Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the Market Future Show. We are live and boy oh boy, what a Friday. This is about to become or actually it's not Friday. I've missed my uh I missed my job on Friday. It's about to become a pretty exciting Monday morning as we transition from Sunday night into into the market open. You know, obviously I can't wear a hat because, you know, there's no cap about the fact that we are going higher, folks. We are going higher, ladies and gentlemen. The futures, for those that haven't seen it, are green, green, green, green across the board.

S&P 500 up 1%, the NASDAQ up 1%. Small caps up 1.13. The VIX down 7.8, which is great to see. The VIX was at 25 last week, now potentially going to open up uh below 18, potentially even below 17 where it was two weeks ago. And then you got the Dow Jones basically hitting a all-time high at 47,530, up almost a percent. This is because it likely is signaling that we have a trade deal with China. We got a lot to talk about when it comes to China. So, we'll talk about that. Um, but it's about to be an exciting exciting exciting uh overnight markets. That's to say the least.

Dude, I just didn't feel like wearing a hat today. That's all. I didn't feel like wearing a hat. This is the first time I actually took my hat off in a while. So, it's not like the official hairstyle or anything. I just said, "You know what? Screw it. I don't care." So, we took the hat off and uh the hair is going all crazy, but there you go. I'm sorry I couldn't make it on Friday, guys. I just I don't know what happened on Friday, but after the close or after the open, I just didn't feel good, bro. Like, I didn't feel My voice was being weird. My like legs were shivering. Like, I I think it it's the the hot to cold weather. Something happened on Friday. I even called Steve. There he is right there in the chat. We'll uh we'll we'll be going over to his alternative assets weekly once we're done with the future show. But I even called him. I was like, "Bro, I don't think I can do the show."

He was like, "What? You're going to miss the show?" I'm like, "You know, I I really don't like missing my show. You guys know me. I've I've only missed the show because of the dentist, which is a, you know, good reason to miss the show if if you have a dentist that looks as nice as mine." Um, and then and then I'm traveling. Otherwise, I don't miss the show. So, I don't know what happened on Friday. I just didn't feel good. But I'm back and uh and very excited to be here.

Now, a couple things before we get into everything we got going on. We got 12 minutes until the overnight markets open and then after those overnight markets where these prices are about to be crazy. Bitcoin, Ethereum, everything's mooning. Then we'll get into the reasons for why all of this is happening along with obviously what's going on with China which is kind of creating this impact. Bitcoin got to 115.5. We're at 114 right now. And then Ethereum finally breaking over 4,4100 which is very nice to see from Ethereum.

Um over the weekend over the weekend I read a book I and when I mean I actually read the book I mean I was up last night. I didn't read the entire thing. I'm still have a couple chapters left but I legit read a book. So there is a book coming out called the philosopher in the valley by Michael Steinberger. He is someone who basically this is basically an autobiography on Karp and before the market futures stream right now I um I interviewed him for the past two hours and it was fascinating to interview a guy who Karp had given a lot of access to over the past five years and that's why I think I read the book.

You know there there's two takeaways from this. Number one I realized if I actually care about the subject I'm willing to read. Like I was up last night. I can barely watch a movie for five minutes before checking Twitter. I was reading through the book. I was like I was licking my finger to come to get to the next page. Like I just it's like if I'm interested in it, I'll read it. Number two, it taught me or it reminded me how much I love to read. And I think it's maybe because I've been writing more on the Substack and so obviously and I read every day. I read a lot of research and articles and stuff, but I don't read books anymore. I kind of want to get back to reading books.

I mean, if it's a something that I actually care about, I feel like I can get through the book. And you know, it really felt good to not get distracted by notifications or YouTube or and just sit down and read. Like it just felt like peaceful. I don't know if it's because if I'm getting older or something, but as I'm I don't know, I want to get back to reading. So, the point is uh this is an amazing book. I think the interview will be really nice. A lot of you guys will get to hear parts about Karp that you've never heard about before.

Um I got to the epilogue and I'm in the book. I'm in the book. My mom freaked out last night when she saw this, but I'm in the book and it's kind of crazy. It's it's a it's a it's a small mention, but I'll show you guys right here.

I'll read it. In early December 2024, a few weeks after the presidential election, Pounder hosted an AIP event in the New York office. When I arrived that morning, Karp was deep in conversation with a Cookian, amateur stock commentator who was possibly Palanteers and Karp's biggest fan in the retail investor community. He was now regularly invited to the company's events and had become its deacto human mascot. As Karp chatted with Mr. Kraja, he noticed a woman approaching from across the room and exclaimed, "Oh, to what do we have this honor?" And then he he talks about who the woman was and why she was even meeting Karp.

But that all happened. That all happened like Karp and I were speaking. We were having a conversation December of 2024. In fact, the conversation was about how much the institutional investors missed a Palunteer and just like how excited he was. was right after they got into the NASDAQ and the S&P. So, this was two months after they got into those indices and Michael Steinberger was there. He was he was I guess he was observing everything that was happening and then he ended up putting it into the epilog. So, that was kind of crazy seeing this last night. I did not think I would get a spot in the book, but yeah, I'm in the book and so it's pretty cool stuff.

Pretty I'm not I'm not getting paid. I I mean there's no copyright or use of my name or anything like I just I got to the epilog last and I was like, "Holy crap, I'm in the freaking book." So, it's pretty cool stuff. I think you guys will enjoy the book and uh yeah, I think you guys will enjoy the interview as well because there's a lot of parts about Karp that no one knows about, including the fact that Karp is half black. A lot of people don't know that he's biracial, you know, and so there's a lot of different elements of his identity, how he thinks about politics, the world, like why he never got married. It's it's a really good book on a lot of those subjects and um his dyslexia, you know, all that stuff. So, so I think when the interview comes out, you guys will like it and it should be pretty fun.

Yeah, I got called the human mascot, dude. That was crazy. I'm not getting any royalties on this. I didn't I just I I I I got to the epilogue last night. I was like, "Holy crap, my name's there." I told my mom. She was like, "Why is your name there?" I was like, "I don't know, but my name's there. I'm there." And obviously, it was a metaphor for like the retail investor. So, pretty cool stuff. Yeah. Black and Jewish as well. Yeah. A lot of people still don't know that. There's a lot of parts of his to his identity that people don't know. But there you go.

All right. So, we got eight minutes until the overnight markets open. Uh I am very excited. Why am I excited? Because we're going higher. It's that simple. We are going higher. And the reason we're going higher is because it looks like from everything I've seen in the past 24 hours, we are getting a deal with China.

Now, I know that this entire year has basically been a metaphor uh uh embodied through this picture right here. As everyone can see right here on the screen, this picture is literally the basis for how this year has gone. But as Mr. Steven Fiorillo would said, higher. We are going higher. And we're going to get into the earnings conversation this week, guys. This week is going to be crazy. We're going to talk about the Fed because we got a Fed cut coming up this week. Not to mention we got forget SoFi earnings by which by the way I did buy another 500 shares of SoFi on Friday. So your boy's loaded up thousand shares.

I didn't get to tell you guys because I didn't go live but uh my average is now like $295. Thousand shares I'm loaded up and hopefully not can take us to the promised land. But uh we got SoFi on f on Tuesday we have Meta, Google and Microsoft on Wednesday all at the same time. And then on top of that, you have the FOMC meeting right before all those companies report. I mean, this is going to be one of the most crazy weeks I think we've ever had in stock market history. I don't remember the last time we had Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet happen at the same time. I I've seen Microsoft and Alphabet happen together. I've seen Meta and Apple happen together. But all three of them, I mean, that day Wednesday after close is going to be madness trying to cover everything.

But it's going to be wild. And then you have SoFi and PayPal on Tuesday. You have Amazon and Apple on Thursday. we just have a lot of companies and then you have that Fed rate cut on Wednesday morning. So, this is going to be a wild week and the way to make this week even more special is if we can get some real negotiations done with China. We've been talking about this China story for the past basically call it nine days now. Ever since the whole kind of Trump is mad at China thing broke out which caused the S&P 500 to fall 3% for the first time in five months. And I think the kind of theme of this entire show has been they're negotiating. It's leverage.

And at the end of the day, we've been through this playbook a billion times. I think a lot of us bought the dip back on October 10th. I mean, we know historically the stock market had the largest inflows it's seen in the past uh 15 years on that Friday. And I think a lot of us bought the dip last Friday, not this Friday because this Friday we closed at all time highs, but la or no it wasn't last Friday, it was last Wednesday when things got really rocky and um you had like poundry go to 169, Nvidia go to 177 like like people ended up buying the dip and I think those dip buyers are going to be rewarded because essentially based on what we've heard today, it looks like we got a deal.

We'll talk more about the deal, but here's one video from Bent this morning highlighting that this deal uh might actually be happening. This was the fifth meeting that I've had with my Chinese counterpart, the vice premier Julie Fun, and we covered a wide range of issues and I think we've reached a substantial framework for the two leaders who will meet in Korea next Thursday. So, uh, you know, on the on the table, uh, the president had given me maximum leverage when he threatened 100% tariffs if the Chinese impose their rare earth uh, global export controls. So I think we have averted that. So the the tariffs will be averted and we have a regular meeting regular quarterly meeting uh with the Chinese. Uh it was scheduled for November 10th or before November 10th. I don't think we will have to have that. So uh we have been rolling the tariffs quarterly. So we agreed on that. We also agreed on substantial agriculture purchases for US farmers. We agreed that the Chinese would begin to help us uh with the precursor chemicals for this terrible fentanyl epidemic that's ravaging our country. So I would say that it was a very good meeting overall.

Okay. So you got Bent saying it was a very good meeting overall. There's a bunch more clips and we'll talk about uh some of those clips from Bent and Greer and all those guys. But dude, even the Chinese and again we're going to go real deep into this story. We got three minutes until the overnight markets open. But the Chinese embassy tweeted that uh these three bullet points that they have agreed to make full use of the China US economic and trade consultation mechanism, maintain close communication on respective concerns in the economic and trade fields and promote the healthy, stable, sustainable uh healthy and stable development of economic and trade relations to benefit both countries and contribute to global prosperity.

I mean that does not sound like a trade war. those three bullet points right there which is word for word what the Chinese embassy tweeted today uh does not feel like a trade war it does not feel like China hates the US or the US hates China it looks like and again we don't have a deal but Bent and Lee set up the negotiations for what a framework for a deal would look like and that framework for a deal is going to be established uh hopefully on November 1st when Trump meets with Xi or I think it's it's October 30th it's it's in that in that time frame October 30th to November 1st that they're meeting.

and look if we come to any reasonable conclusion and you've got the Fed rate cut and you've got a earnings coming in in a you know a much better way than people have expected. I mean so far 80% of the companies that have reported in the S&P 500 have beat on earnings. We looked at on Thursday whether it was Intel or Deckers and maybe their stocks didn't cooperate because a lot of those stocks were already up a lot year to date but the companies beat by an average of like 15 to 25% on EPS on earnings which means margins are going up. I mean I think we're going higher. I think we are going higher and it is exciting to see.

Now, here's the poll I'll put real quick in the chat. Higher or sell the news. Higher or sell the news. I mean, there's a world where it could be a sell the news. That could definitely happen. We did close at an all-time high uh on Friday. Uh S&P likely opens up, I think, closer to that 680 level in the next two minutes. But if it is a sell the news, dude, it's also going to be a buy the dip. like every single thing this year, every single opportunity that we've had has been a buy the dip. And I don't think that necessarily changes.

Now, the the question around a lot of those momentum stocks that took a meaningful draw down over the past couple weeks, uh I don't know if they're going back to all-time highs. Maybe that's possible. But even if they don't, again, it's not the craziest idea, right? Because some of those stocks that did take a draw down, maybe that draw down is enough. And a lot of those stocks, you know, got hit 30, 40%. and now they can go higher even if they don't get back to all-time highs or they can stabilize in a range which is one of the best things you could ask for for stocks that are up five to 7x for the year even after that 40% decline.

So I think there's a lot of healthy components to what has happened over the past couple of weeks even though it was painful for all of us to deal with. But again, every time there's been any level of pain, what do we do? We bought the dip or at least the majority of retail bought the dip. And I think that has continued to play out. And again, it's not just buying the dip for the hell of buying the dip. It's because the earnings momentum that is out there continues to prove that buying the dip makes sense. And it feels like 7,000 S&P 500 might be in play because of that ability to buy the dip.

Here we go. Overnight markets are open. Let's see what we've got. Hoodie 142. That's up 1.5% as we open the markets. Palenteer 186. That is green as we open the overnight markets. Tesla 438. That's up 1%. Nvidia 188 trying to get back to that 195 level that Nvidia was at a couple weeks ago. Uh AMD, wow, 257. AMD, oh my. AMD closed at 253 last week. 25. Google right there, 261. We saw Google get to 260 a while ago. So, I'm happy I bought another 500 shares on Friday. Let's see if we can get to 35 um on these earnings on Tuesday. SoFi right there 2963. Amazon up 1% 226. Meta 744. Haven't seen Meta at 740 since September.

Where is spy? Oh, we didn't even check spy. Where's spy? Where's spy? Oh my goodness. 680. Holy guacamole. 680. I mean, I think we all had a feeling it would open close to that there. It closed at what? 678 on Friday. Boom. SoFi 30. SoFi. There it is. SoFi 30. SoFi 297097. You got SoFi 30 right there. Palanteer 187. Boom. Bought the dip at 172 on Palanteer last week. Also bought the dip at 177 on Nvidia. I mean, if you bought the dip on pretty much everything, you're probably doing well.

Guys, this might be a meltup. This might be a real serious meltup. ... Yeah, and maybe it's a healthier start to another meltup because we already had a little bit of a draw down across the entire market, right? It's it's not like we're going from 673 to 680. We went from 673 to 647 and some names got hit worse than others, but pretty much everything took at least like minimum 5% hit. A lot of things took way worse than 5% of a hit. The market took a 3% hit and now it feels like a more healthier way to get to these levels. It really does, which is which is nice to see.

BMR right there, 5321. How about Chinese stocks? BABA, that's up 2.9. That should be up. JD, I know a lot of people are in JD. That's up 2.74. K Webb in general, the Chinese internet tech ETF. Wow, that's up 2%. It's a big move for KB and that continues to go green.

The rare earth stocks are red. That is fair. US AR, my goodness, down 13%. MP's down 5%. Okay, I guess. Oh, well obviously I mean if you have a trade deal with China for rare earth metals and minerals, a lot of the domestic manufacturers and miners for those stocks, they're not going to have that much demand, right? Or at least the perception is their demand is going to go down a little bit. So that's fair. Gold is also down 1.32.

So, what do we have this week? Let's transition into some of the earnings we have. By the way, I want to show you guys this real quick. The Warren Buffett indicator is now at 200 um 23%. Which means if you use the Buffett indicator, this is the most expensive stock market in history theoretically.

And again, the Buffet indicator has been pretty much this high over the past couple years. uh not literally at this level but it's been you know getting to those all-time highs or close to those all-time highs and the reason for that is because our GDP as a our GDP relative to our stock market is is is in contrast right we are growing but we are not growing as fast as the stock market is growing but the reason the stock market is growing that much I mean there's a lot of reasons but one could definitely argue that AI and the margin expansion something that Birkshshire has not really been you know that fully invested in I think Bergkshire still has about 350 billion in cash so they are still waiting for an opportunity

The makers of Oreo have trained their own video model for television advertising. They have invested 40 million in the models in AI and say it's cut production costs by 30 to 50%. Video models are continuing to advance at a rapid pace. By next year, it'll be difficult to tell if an ad is AI generated.

This might actually be an interesting earning play for a lot of people to look at. ... But that could also be another consistent trend we're seeing in some of these companies. They're using AI. That AI is reducing their cost. As a result of reducing that cost, they're able to put up more EPS. As a result of putting up more EPS, the stock market continues to expand its overall multiple because these companies are showing that they can deliver more value for shareholders.

And then Wednesday is going to be crazy. So here's my question. Let's uh let's put this in the chat. Wednesday, we have Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon. Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon. By the way, 75% of you think that we're going to get that China deal done by end of year, which I would tend to agree with. I think we're in the closest level that we could possibly get that deal. Which one outperforms from these prices today, Meta, Google, or Microsoft on Wednesday? I don't even know how we're going to listen to the earnings calls that day. It's going to just be a wild day trying to get through all these stocks, but it's going to be exciting to see.

Um, yeah, you know, honestly, I think I would I would I would agree with you guys. I think it's I think it's Google. I think Microsoft's going to be great. Uh, I do think Microsoft in their cloud revenue, you know, they really blew away expectations last quarter. I don't know if they can do that twice. Google has a lot of different elements working for it that I could see that EPS beat being higher than expected. And then Meta, I think, is going to be fine. I just think there's been a little bit of internal chaos in meta from all the stuff we've been seeing. And I think Z is just going to have to, you know, clean all that up and he's going to have to show that they might be spending like crazy, but it's justified. I think Google is the clearest though to to not be too bad.

I'm looking for the bare case. I don't know if there's an easy bare case, and realistically, there hasn't been a bare case for the past five months, ever since the tariff stuff. There are bearish things to be concerned about and to not worry about. And I think the biggest bearish case was just like there was a lot of stocks running for like probably not the most fundamental reason, but all those took a draw down.

And they all are probably not going to zero. Like they don't need to go to zero, and they have enough potential to justify why people would be excited to buy the dip on them. It's just they're also not going to the moon while the market was being flat, which was happening a month ago. And that as all I think pretty much all of it has been flushed out. There's probably still some pockets of it that feel toppy. But it's it's not as crazy as it was SoFi back above 30 when the meme stock ETF came out. When that ETF came out, I mean, a lot of people I remember the sentiment that they just felt like this was getting a bit ridiculous. I think a lot of that a lot of that has been flushed out and and given a lot of that flush out has happened and the market's been able to make a higher move and those stocks are now able to go higher in a more healthy way. I don't know what what has to be the what the Fed's going to hike. The Fed's not hiking. That's not happening.

and then if we got the China deal and the Nvidia deal and all this other stuff or not the Nvidia deal, the the the well technically the Nvidia deal of Nvidia being able to sell chips to China, but the India deal which Trump said over the weekend they're closer to potentially getting into a conversation with that. I mean you just have a lot of stuff that can be baked. Also, we're near the end of the year. end of the year, markets are up on average 4.7%. And by the way, the reason the market tends to be good towards the end of the year is because September and August tend to suck. So the market kind of rallies towards the end of the year. September and August were really good. Guess what sucked? October to an extent, right? Now that we're recovering, but uh given October had that draw down that we were all anticipating where it was going to happen September, August, now that that's happened, you know, if the market needed some level of volatility, we got it over the past couple of weeks. And maybe maybe that allows us to make that next leg up.

So, I mean again the theme of the day and hopefully the theme of tonight's future show continues into tomorrow. Look at Robin Hood 14338 is bullish. And the reason I really think this is more bullish is because we went through a healthy two week draw down across the entire board and all of us probably needed to see a little bit of more pain before we get those gains. It's just natural. We were going on a hot streak. Literally from April till the end of September, we're on a hot streak. And granted, we had a 30% decline, but the point is it was just up and up and up and up. And I ran Israel didn't take us down. Moody's didn't take us down. Trump announced 50% tariffs on the EU that didn't do anything. And then a 3% down day because Trump says, "Oh, I'm tired of China's uh export controls." And then boom, everything goes to It's almost like the market just needed a catalyst. And most people just said, "Okay, if that's the catalyst for me to get SoFi at $25, then that's what I'm going to do or pick whatever stock at whatever level." And that's why this is also pretty exciting.