OpenAI 财务状况引发市场震动
Jason Calacanis: Brad Gerstner 来了,刚搞垮了股市、戳破了 AI 泡沫就加入了我们。干得好,Brad。我们稍后会深入聊聊。我们是不是该请求 OpenAI 在未来几个月内暂停任何公开声明或露面?
Chamath Palihapitiya: 感谢你,我们所有人的投资组合这周都跌了 15%。
David Sacks: 干得好,Brad。你决定当个播客,心想:“嘿,让我问几个尖锐的问题吧。”结果你戳破了 AI 泡沫。
Jason Calacanis: 这件事非常有趣。如果你不是业内人士,Sam Altman 上周五出现在了精彩的 BG2 播客上。当我们的第五位好友 Brad 问了一个我认为完全合法且普通的问题时,场面变得有点紧张。嘿,你们收入 130 亿美元……
Brad Gerstner: 老实说,这其实是个送分题。
Jason Calacanis: 简直是手下留情了。
Brad Gerstner: 我认为提问的方式非常合理,我用一种非常公平的方式问了一个好问题。
Jason Calacanis: 好的,我们先播放一下这个片段,然后我想和你深入聊聊幕后故事,Brad。
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**Jason Calacanis:** Brad Gerstner's here joining us hot after crashing the stock market and popping the AI bubble. Well done, Brad. We're going to get into it. Can we ask OpenAI to just put a moratorium on any more public statements or appearances for another couple months?
**Chamath Palihapitiya:** All of our portfolios, thank you. We're all down 15% this week.
**David Sacks:** Good job, Brad. You decided you'd be a podcaster. You're like, "Hey, let me ask a couple of hard questions here." And you pop the AI bubble.
**Jason Calacanis:** Oh, it's super interesting. Super interesting. If you're not in the industry, Sam Altman appeared on the fabulous BG2 podcast last Friday and it got a little frisky when our fifth bestie here asked what I thought was a completely legitimate, you know, mundane question. Hey, you're making 13 billion.
**Brad Gerstner:** It's actually a softball question to be honest.
**Jason Calacanis:** It was an underhanded pitch.
**Brad Gerstner:** The way that it was asked, I think you did a very reasonable job of asking a good question in a very fair way.
**Jason Calacanis:** So, let's just show this clip here and then I want to go behind the pod with you, Brad.
Brad Gerstner: 我认为本周我听到的最大问题,也是笼罩在市场上空的问题是,一家年收入 130 亿美元的公司,如何能做出 1.4 万亿美元的支出承诺?Sam,你已经听到了这些批评。
Sam Altman: 首先,我们的收入远不止这个数。其次,Brad,如果你想卖掉你的股份,我可以帮你找个买家。
Brad Gerstner: 我只是觉得,你知道,人们……
Sam Altman: 我认为有很多人愿意购买 OpenAI 的股票。包括我自己。那些在 Twitter 上对我们的计算能力等问题忧心忡忡、大声疾呼的人,他们会很乐意购买股票。所以,我想我们可以很快把你或其他任何人的股份卖给那些噪音最大的人。我们确实计划收入会急剧增长,而且收入正在急剧增长。我们正在做一个前瞻性的赌注,认为它会继续增长。我不常希望成为一家上市公司,但少数有吸引力的时刻之一就是当那些人写着“OpenAI 即将破产”之类的荒谬言论时。我真想告诉他们,他们可以直接做空股票,我很乐意看到他们因此被烧得体无完肤。
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**Brad Gerstner:** So, I think the single biggest question I've heard all week and hanging over the market is how can a company with 13 billion in revenues make 1.4 trillion of spend commitments? And you've heard the criticism, Sam.
**Sam Altman:** First of all, we're doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer.
**Brad Gerstner:** I just enough like, you know, people are...
**Sam Altman:** I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares. Including myself. People who talk with a lot of breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever that would be thrilled to buy shares. So I think we could sell your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter about this very quickly. We do plan for revenue to grow steeply. Revenue is growing steeply. We are taking a forward bet that it's going to continue to grow. There are not many times that I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous "OpenAI is about to go out of business" and whatever. I would love to tell them they could just short the stock and I would love to see them get burned on that.
Jason Calacanis: 所以,Brad,你问了一个相当普通的问题,而且你问得非常客气。我想我们可以给 Sam 一点宽容。我不知道他是不是在开玩笑,或者他只是厌倦了回答这个问题,但互联网抓住这一点,以一种病毒式的方式传播开来,认为他很生气,很有敌意。你是怎么看的?
Brad Gerstner: 这就是有趣的地方,对吧?听着,我们之间经常互相开玩笑,也会变得很激烈。有时候会失控,我们不知道对方是认真的还是在开玩笑。Sam 和我事后都笑了。我认为 Sam 当时很激动,但他也想把它当成一个玩笑。他知道我不想卖掉我的股份,他知道我想买更多公司的股份。但我认为它之所以如此病毒式传播,是因为这是一个非常重要的问题。人们真的很紧张。他们在想,我们是不是正在走进一个 AI 泡沫?你怎么能谈论 1.4 万亿美元的支出,而你今年的 GAAP 收入据报道只有 130 亿美元。
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**Jason Calacanis:** So Brad, you asked a pretty mundane question. You said it very nicely. I guess we could give Sam a little bit of grace. I don't know if he was being a little cheeky or maybe he's tired of answering the question, but the internet took this and ran with it in a very viral way that he was angry and he was hostile. How did you take it?
**Brad Gerstner:** That's the interesting thing, right? I mean listen, we bust each other's chops all the time. We get feisty with one another. Sometimes it runs amok. We don't know if somebody's being serious or not serious. And Sam and I had a good laugh after. I think Sam was feisty but I think he also intended it as a joke. He knows that I don't want to sell my shares. He knows that I would like to buy more shares in the company. But I think the reason that it went so viral is because it is a super important question. People are really nervous. They're wondering, are we walking into an AI bubble? Like, how can these huge numbers, how can you be talking about 1.4 trillion in spending when you have kind of gap revenue that's been reported to 13 billion this year.
1.4万亿支出承诺背后的真相
Brad Gerstner: 所以我有点失望,事后我也在推特上谈到了这一点,那种火药味掩盖了答案。但如果你听听他在那段节目其余部分的发言,他基本上是说:“听着,我们认为未来几年我们的收入将达到 1000 亿美元。” Jason Calacanis 给团队发了一张图表,基本上显示了 The Information 对 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 未来几年收入的预测。The Information 报道说,他们泄露的内部数据显示,两家公司的收入都将超过 1000 亿美元。
Jason Calacanis: 这是 The Information 报道泄露的内部数据,还是他们自己的猜测?
Brad Gerstner: 不,我认为这是基于泄露的内部数据。所以,我想 Sam 心里在想,而且他在播客上多次表示,我们的收入将超过 1000 亿美元。而那 1.4 万亿美元,非常重要的一点是,这是在五到六年的时间里。我估计其中大约一半的支出将由合作伙伴承担。所以我们现在谈论的是 7000 亿美元的支出。将其分摊到五到六年,在后期,你可能谈论的是 OpenAI 每年 1500 亿美元的资本支出(Capital Expenditure, 简称 Capex:公司用于购买、维护或升级实物资产的资金)。所以他可能坐在那里想,而且他也说了我们的收入将超过 1000 亿。所以如果我们有 1500 亿的收入和 1500 亿的资本支出,现在账就有点算得过来了。但重要的是,他说如果我们没有那些收入,我们就必须让收入和支出相匹配。我认为他们会延长或重新谈判交易,以使这些支出对公司来说是可行的。
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**Brad Gerstner:** So, I was a little disappointed and I tweeted about this afterwards that the feistiness got in the way of the answer. But if you listen to his words during the rest of the segment, he basically said, "Listen, we think we're going to have a hundred billion in revenues over the course of the next couple years." And JCal sent the team a chart that basically just shows The Information's forecast for what OpenAI and Anthropic's revenues are going to be over the course of the next several years. And The Information is reporting that their internal numbers are both over a hundred billion dollars.
**Jason Calacanis:** This is The Information reporting on leaked internal numbers or The Information is taking a guess?
**Brad Gerstner:** No, I think they report this is on leaked internal numbers according to The Information. And so, I think Sam's in his head saying, and he says multiple times on the pod, we're going to have revenues in excess of a hundred billion dollars. And the 1.4 trillion, it's super important to remember this is over a period of five or six years. I estimate about half of that spending is going to be borne by the partners. So now we're talking $700 billion in spending. Spread that over five or six years. In the out years, you're probably talking about $150 billion of capex to OpenAI. So he's probably sitting there saying, and he said we're going to have over 100 billion in revenue. So if we have 150 billion in revenue and 150 billion in capex now it begins to pencil out a little bit more. But importantly he said, and if we don't have those revenues, we've got to match our revenues to our expenses. I think they will just extend or recut the deals in order to make those expenses doable for the company.
Jason Calacanis: 这是一个重点,因为我们不知道,我们没有看到这些实际的交易,不知道它们是否有条件或退出条款,或者他们是否可以推迟或取消。我想这些最终会在公开文件中披露。但撇开这一切不谈,市场对此并不满意。我们所说的合作伙伴,微软、英伟达、甲骨文、博通,都下跌了 6% 到 20%。所以,这实际上是 AI 热潮中的一次重大回调。
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**Jason Calacanis:** This is an important point because we don't know, we haven't seen these actual deals and if they have conditions or outs or if they can push it out or they can cancel it. Maybe they have, and that will come out I guess in the public filings. But putting all that aside, the market was not happy about this. Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, Broadcom, who all are the partners we're talking about, were all down 6 to 20%. So this has in fact been a significant correction in terms of the AI boom.
市场进入“避险”阶段
Chamath Palihapitiya: 我认为这些事情完全不相关。人总有不顺的时候。我做过几千小时的电视节目,也有过几次非常糟糕的日子。我怀疑如果 Sam 能重来一次,他不会用那种方式说那些话。即使他是在开玩笑,他也会多练习一下,让笑话落地。那么到底发生了什么?我认为我们现在正处于一个稍微避险(Risk-off: 指投资者倾向于出售风险资产,转而持有更安全的资产)和重新平衡的时期。为什么?有两件事正在发生。首先,市场正在学习消化所有已经发生的资本支出,他们都在拼命建立模型,试图预测这些支出的投资回报率。其次,他们试图弄清楚这些新支出将如何实际影响未来的收益。这与 OpenAI 关系不大,更多地与“科技七巨头”(Mag 7)中的大公司有关。谷歌的财报非常出色,他们的 AI 数据火爆。Facebook 的则很糟糕。苹果现在处在一个非常有趣的位置,他们似乎要将 AI 业务交给谷歌,并每年支付数十亿美元,就像他们每年从谷歌那里获得数十亿美元的搜索收入一样。
Chamath Palihapitiya: 其次,随着年终的临近,市场有点平静,人们会想:“让我整合一下,锁定一些利润,为新的一年做准备。让我进行税损收割。” 人们过去常常等到 12 月中旬才做这些事,但现在他们足够聪明,知道 12 月中旬的价格走势,所以现在这种价格行为从 11 月中旬就开始了。所以,我不会把这一切都归咎于 Brad 和 Sam。我认为这只是正常的市场运作。但要明确的是,我们确实正在进入一个避险阶段。
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**Chamath Palihapitiya:** I think these are totally and completely uncorrelated. Every now and then you have a bad day. I've done thousands of hours on TV. I've had a couple of really bad days. I suspect that if Sam had to do it over, he wouldn't have said what he said in the way he said it. And even if he was joking, he would have practiced it a little bit more and just landed it. So what's actually going on? I think right now we are in a period of getting a little risk off and rebalancing. Why? There are two sets of things that are happening. The first set of things is the market is learning to digest all of the capex that has happened and they're all breathlessly trying to build models that try to predict what the ROI is of that spend. The second part of that is they're trying to figure out how this new spend will actually impact future earnings. And this is less to do with OpenAI, but it has much more to do with the big stalwarts of the Mag 7. Google's earnings were phenomenal. Their AI numbers were blazing hot. Facebook's was terrible. Apple is now in this really interesting place where it seems like they're going to seed their AI business to Google and pay them billions of dollars a year like they get paid billions of dollars a year for search from them.
**Chamath Palihapitiya:** The second part is as you go into year end, there's just a little bit of a lull in the market and people are like, "Let me just consolidate. Let me book some wins. Let me get ready for the new year. Let me tax loss harvest." People used to wait until mid December, and now they are smart enough to know that mid December the price action is. And so now this price action starts in mid November. So I wouldn't pin this on Brad and Sam. I just think this is natural market machinations. But to be clear, we are very much getting into a phase of risk-off.
“政府救助”风波与市场连锁反应
Jason Calacanis: 是的,Sacks,这件事在周三变得更加严重,因为 OpenAI 的 CFO Sarah Friar 告诉《华尔街日报》,她希望美国政府能为他们 1.4 万亿美元的数据中心提供融资支持(Backstop: 在金融语境中通常指政府或机构提供的最后担保或支持,以防止系统性失败)。原话是:“这种支持,这种担保,能让融资得以实现。”她还说,联邦担保将“真正降低融资成本”。这当然会。这将使 OpenAI 能够以更低的利率从更大的贷款机构池中借到更多的钱。这消息迅速传开,每个人都在说:“天哪,”这开始助长了一种说法,即 OpenAI 可能实际上已经资不抵债,无法支付账单,这显然有点荒谬。周三晚上,Friar 收回了她的言论,澄清说:“OpenAI 并没有为我们的基础设施承诺寻求政府支持。我用了‘支持’这个词,它混淆了我的观点。我想表达的是,美国在技术上的实力将来自于建设真正的工业能力,这需要私营部门和政府各司其职。”
Jason Calacanis: Sacks,你站出来发推文说,不会有联邦救助。如果 OpenAI 需要救助,有很多人可以接手。我们有五家主要的前沿模型公司。Grok、Claude、Gemini,多的是。所以 Sacks,你像家长一样出面解决了问题。跟我们讲讲你作为我们的 AI 沙皇是怎么看待这件事的。
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**Jason Calacanis:** Yeah. And this got exacerbated Sachs because on Wednesday, OpenAI decided to be in the news again when their CFO Sarah Friar told the Wall Street Journal she hopes the US government will backstop financing of its 1.4 trillion in data centers. Here's a direct quote, "the backstop, the guarantee that allows the financing to happen." And she said that the federal guarantees would quote "really drop the cost of financing." Of course, it would. And this would allow OpenAI to borrow more money at lower rates from a much larger pool of lenders. That went viral and everybody said, "Oh my god," it started feeding I think the narrative that maybe OpenAI is insolvent in fact and there's no way for them to pay their bills, which obviously is a little bit ridiculous. On Wednesday night, Friar walked back her comments. "I want to clarify my comments. OpenAI is not seeking a government backstop for our infrastructure commitments. I used the word 'backstop' and it muddied the point. I was making the point that American strength and technology will come for building real industrial capacity which requires the private sector and government playing their part."
**Jason Calacanis:** Sax, you came over the top and tweeted that there will be no federal bailout. There's plenty of people available to pick up the mantle if OpenAI needed a bailout. You got five major frontier model companies. Grok, Claude, Gemini, plenty of them. So Sax, you came in. Daddy's home and you settled it. Take us through how you think about this as our zar of AI.
David Sacks: 今天早上,我的整个信息流都充满了分析师、消费者、商界人士和政客的评论,他们说我们不能允许 OpenAI 获得联邦救助。我认为他们把 Sam 最初的评论或他的敏感反应,与 Friar 关于他们需要“支持”的言论联系起来,得出了“嘿,这家公司资不抵债,快要倒闭了,并且正在要求联邦救助”的结论。所以我说,听着,AI 不会有联邦救助。不可能发生。我们现在有五家主要的前沿模型公司,而且新公司还在不断成立。如果其中一家失败了,它就会倒闭,其他的会取而代之。所以,没有人谈论救助。事实上,我会说 AI 行业可能是目前整个美国经济中最健康,也就是最具竞争力的行业之一。如果你热爱残酷竞争驱动创新,那我们现在拥有的就是这个。所以,如果这些公司中的一家不自量力最终破产,后果自负。我从未听过任何严肃的人对此提出异议。
David Sacks: 我也提出了一个我认为很重要的观点,那就是给 OpenAI 一点信任,我不认为 OpenAI 的任何人在要求救助。如果你看 Sarah Friar 的视频,她显然在寻找合适的词来描述她想说的话,然后她用了一个她现在后悔的词,那就是“支持”。这绝对不是正确的词。所以我认为他们不是在要求救助。我不知道她说的“支持”是什么意思,这说不通。所以我认为这有点小题大做。我认为重要的是,也许她想表达的是,我们确实希望在这个国家更容易地建设基础设施,这意味着简化许可流程,让发电更容易。这都关乎监管改革。我认为这里的目标是实现快速的基础设施建设,同时不增加居民电价,这是没人想要的。这就是我们必须解决的问题。解决这个问题的方法是让这些 AI 公司更容易地建立自己的“表后”发电设施。这需要监管改革。总统呼吁的就是允许 AI 公司进行“表后”发电。所以,没人谈论救助,没人谈论支持。我们谈论的是简化许可,让建设更容易。所以,我们的口号应该是“建设,而非救助”。
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**David Sacks:** Well, this morning my entire feed was full of comments by people, analysts, consumers, business people, and politicians saying that we can't allow OpenAI to have a federal bailout. And I think they were kind of connecting Sam's original comments or prickliness to what Brad talked about like, hey, do they have the money? Can they justify this with Friar's comments that they need a backstop to say, hey, this company's not solvent. It's going out of business and they're demanding a federal bailout. So, I think that's kind of how the pieces got put together. And what I said is, look, there's not going to be a federal bailout for AI. Not going to happen. We have five major frontier model companies right now, and there are new companies being formed all the time. And if one of them fails, hey, it's going to go out of business and the other ones are going to replace it. So, nobody is talking about a bailout. In fact, I would say that the AI sector is maybe one of the healthiest, meaning most competitive sectors of the entire American economy right now. To the extent that you just love ruthless competition driving innovation, that's what we have right now. So, if one of these companies gets over its skis and ends up going bankrupt, the chips are going to fall where they may. And I've never heard anyone serious disputing that fact.
**David Sacks:** Now, I also made the point, which I think is important, that to give OpenAI the benefit of the doubt, I don't think anyone at OpenAI was asking for a bailout. If you watch the video with Sarah Friar, she's clearly searching for the right word to describe what she's trying to say, and then she settles on a word that she now regrets, which is backstop. Definitely not the right word. So, I don't think they are asking for a bailout. I don't know what she meant by backstop. Doesn't make sense. So, I think this is a little bit of a tempest in a teapot. What I think is important and I think maybe where she was going is that I do think that we want to make it easier to build infrastructure in this country and that means making permitting easier, making power generation easier. That's all about regulatory reform. And I think that the goal here is to enable a rapid infrastructure build out without increasing residential rates for electricity, which nobody wants. That's the thing we have to combat. But the way that you solve that problem is by making it easier for these AI companies to stand up their own power generation behind the meter. And that requires regulatory reform. That's what the president has called for is allowing the AI companies to do behind the meter. So no one's talking about bailout. Nobody's talking about backstop. We are talking about making permitting easier and making it easier to do buildout. So build out not bailout.
Jason Calacanis: 建设,而非救助。现在,有人在揣测,过去曾有过为激励某个行业而提供贷款的情况。所以我想和你确认一下,没有类似 Solyndra 那样的贷款讨论吧?
David Sacks: 没有人跟我讨论过任何这类事情。所以,从政府的角度来看,这甚至不在考虑范围之内。
Jason Calacanis: 如果有这么多人想把资本投入这个领域,如果这么多人想买你们的股票,一家年收入 10 亿美元、目前估值 5000 亿美元的公司,这可是 30 到 40 倍的市销率。这家公司估值已经很高了,人们还在抢着买股票,那为什么还需要政府贷款呢?
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**Jason Calacanis:** Build out not bailout. Now there was a little bit of sort of reading the tea leaves. There have been times when loans were given to incentivize an industry. So I just want to be clear with you. There's no discussions of like Solyndra type loans.
**David Sacks:** Nobody's discussed any of that with me. So, it's not even on the radar, I would say, from the government standpoint.
**Jason Calacanis:** And why would it be if there's so many people trying to pour capitalist capital into this, Brad, and there's so many people trying to buy your shares in a company making $1 billion that's currently valued at 500 billion, which I think is like a 30 to 40 price to sales ratio. I mean, this company is fully valued and people are still trying to buy the shares.
Brad Gerstner: 是的,我认为 David 说得非常精彩。听着,加速全国 AI 基础设施建设是一项国家要务。我之前说过,Jensen Huang 估计未来 5 年将建成的 4 万亿美元基础设施,是完全由联邦资助的曼哈顿计划规模的 10 倍。而这完全是由私人资助的。但如果没有政府扫清监管障碍,这是不可能的。你在这期播客里也听到了,电力是这里的关键问题。看到联邦政府正在做的事情,我感到很惊讶。我认为这正是 Sarah 想要表达的,他们需要公私合作。他们会做好自己的工作,筹集资金,“支持”这个词用得不对,但我知道,而且我今天早上和 Sarah 谈过,他们对联邦政府为加速电力和基础设施建设所做的一切深表感谢。联邦政府可以在不承担自身资产负债表风险的情况下做到这一点。
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**Brad Gerstner:** Yeah. I think I was brilliantly said by David. Listen, it's a national imperative that we accelerate the buildout of AI infrastructure across the country. I've said before the $4 trillion that Jensen Huang has estimated will be built out over the next 5 years is 10 times the size of the Manhattan project that was totally federally funded. Okay? And this is all being privately funded. But it wouldn't be possible without the government clearing out of the way the regulatory hurdles. You heard on the pod that power is really the gating issue here and so it's been amazing to see what the federal government is doing. I think that's what Sarah was trying to get to, that they need to have a public private partnership. They're going to do their job, raise their money, backstop was not the right choice of words, but I know and I talked to Sarah this morning about this, are deeply grateful for what the federal government is doing to accelerate the buildout of power and infrastructure. And the federal government can do that without taking risk on their own balance sheet.
Chamath Palihapitiya: 顺便说一句,Sam 大约 15 分钟前发了条帖子。他非常权威地回应了三个关键问题。首先,他说 OpenAI 到年底将达到 200 亿美元的远期年化收入,这意味着 12 月的收入至少为 16.66 亿美元。所以我们大概知道收入在未来几个月将从 130 亿增长到 200 亿,这是一个相当惊人的增长率。然后他谈到了“大到不能倒”以及他们是否需要政府赞助的问题,他的态度非常明确。所以我认为这只是小题大做。人们现在如坐针毡,他们很激动。一些人没有收益,另一些人收益惊人。每个人都很激动。我认为我们正进入至少两到三个月的避险阶段。我怀疑我们会在二月份重新坚定地进入风险偏好模式。但在接下来的几个月里,我认为人们会过度夸大每一个随机的小事。
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**Chamath Palihapitiya:** By the way, Sam just posted something about 15 minutes ago. And he was pretty authoritative in addressing the three critical questions. The first thing he says is that we, meaning OpenAI, will end the year on a $20 billion forward run rate which means December revenue will be 1.666 billion at least. So we kind of know where the revenue is going from 13 to 20 over these next few months which is a pretty staggering growth rate. And then he goes and addresses the whole too big to fail and whether they want government sponsorship. And he's pretty unequivocal here. So, I think this is a tempest in a teapot. I think people are on pins and needles. They're agitated. Some people have had no gains. Other people have had incredible gains. Everybody's agitated. I think we are getting in the risk-off phase for at least two or three months. We will be back firmly in risk-on mode in February is my suspicion. But these next few months, I think people will overblow every random little thing.
中美AI竞赛:联邦框架的紧迫性
Brad Gerstner: 谢谢。Jensen 对《金融时报》直言不讳地说:“中国将赢得 AI 竞赛。”他的论点是,美国各州的法规和电力限制正在给美国 AI 公司带来困难。而中共显然正在让运行所有这些 GPU 变得超级便宜。
Brad Gerstner: 他 100% 正确。我不知道你们是否看到,Cursor 2.0 本周发布了。我的团队在用它,这是一款令人难以置信的产品。猜猜他们做了什么?他们把 Anthropic 换成了一个开源的中国模型。
Jason Calacanis: 你知道他们用的是什么吗?是 Kimmy 还是什么?
Brad Gerstner: 我想是 Qwen。我认为他们用的是 Qwen 的一个变种。我的观点是,我们现在是束手束脚在赛跑。我们将不得不应对 50 套不同的州立法,这些州议员自以为懂 AI,其实他们不懂。Sacks 懂。所以应该有一个联邦框架,仅此而已。与此同时,中国的开源模型越来越好。所以我们正在做出技术决策,将我们的马车拴在那根钢丝上。所以 Jensen 是对的。我们需要尽快解决这个问题。
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**Brad Gerstner:** Thank you. Jensen told the FT straight up, quote, "China is going to win the AI race." His argument is that US state-by-state regulations and power constraints are making it harder for US AI companies. As we've discussed here countless times, whereas the CCP is obviously just making it super affordable to run all those GPUs.
**Brad Gerstner:** He's 100% right. I don't know if you guys saw, but Cursor 2.0 launched this week. My team at 8090 use it. It's an incredible product. Guess what they did? They swapped out Anthropic for an open source Chinese model.
**Jason Calacanis:** Do you know what they're using? Is it like Kimmy or what is it?
**Brad Gerstner:** I think it's Qwen. I think they're using a spin of Qwen. Yeah. My point is we are right now running with one hand tied behind our back. We are going to have to deal with 50 different sets of legislation from state legislators who think they know what AI is. They don't. Sax knows. So, there should be a federal framework and that should be it. And then meanwhile, the Chinese open source models get better and better and better. And so we're making technology decisions that tie our wagons to that steel thread. And so Jensen is right. We need to clean this up quickly.
David Sacks: 我有点失望地看到,某些政客,特别是共和党人,说 AI 不会有联邦救助,这很合理。我们都同意,也没人要求。但我有点失望地看到,他们中的一些人将救助与单一的联邦框架联系起来,而不是 50 个州的拼凑监管制度。因为如果共和党州长们认为他们将是制定规则的人,那他们就大错特错了。州议会中 25% 的法案来自四个州:加州、纽约州、科罗拉多州和伊利诺伊州。换句话说,是最大的蓝州。这些州也恰好是这些大型 AI 公司的总部所在地,唯一的例外是 xAI 在德州。蓝州拥有最大的市场力量,如果最终由他们制定法规,我认为 AI 公司会根据蓝州的法规来编写模型,这种想法太天真了。我不认为红州能以某种方式豁免于蓝州强加的法规。
David Sacks: 我在之前的播客中谈到过,蓝州在这里的目标是将DEI(Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion: 多元、公平和包容)重新植入 AI 模型,以实现意识形态的捕获。他们的方式不是说我们要求 DEI,而是说我们禁止算法歧视,这意味着如果模型对受保护群体说了不好的话,你最终会得到同样的结果,也就是意识形态的捕获。我认为所有共和党人都应该反对这一点。阻止它的唯一方法是联邦优先权。否则,各州将为所欲为,蓝州将基本上占据主导地位。
David Sacks: 我认为现在最有意义的论点是商业条款的论点。宪法希望为州际贸易创造一个单一的全国市场。AI 显然符合条件。让我们给特朗普总统,而不是加文·纽森、J.B. 普利兹克、凯西·霍赫尔或贾里德·波利斯,制定规则的能力。让我们有一个单一的联邦框架,以防止 AI 的意识形态捕获,保持其无偏见,这是每个保守派都应该想要的。
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**David Sacks:** I was a little bit disappointed to see it was reasonable for certain politicians, especially Republican ones, to say, "Look, there's not going to be a federal bailout for AI. Great. We all agree. No one's asking for it." But I was a little disappointed to see that some of them were associating a bailout with a single federal framework as opposed to the patchwork of 50 state regulatory regimes. Because if Republican governors think that they're the ones who are going to be writing the rules, they're sorely mistaken about this. 25% of the bills going through state legislatures are in four states: California, New York, Colorado, and Illinois. In other words, the biggest blue states. Those also happen to be the states where these big AI companies are all headquartered with the one exception of xAI which is in Texas. The blue states have the most market power and if they end up creating the regulations, I just think it's naive to think that the AI companies won't write their models to those regulations of the blue states. I don't think that red states are somehow going to find themselves exempted from the blue state regulations that are being imposed.
**David Sacks:** I've talked about on a previous podcast how what the blue states are going for here is to reinsert DEI into AI models to achieve ideological capture. And the way they do this, they don't say we're requiring DEI. They say that we're prohibiting algorithmic discrimination, which means that if the model says something bad about a protected group, you end up with the same end result, which is again ideological capture. I think all Republicans should be opposed to this. There's only one way to stop it, which is with federal preemption. Otherwise, the states will do what they want and the blue states will basically dominate.
**David Sacks:** I think the arguments that make the most sense right now are the commerce clause arguments where look, the Constitution wants to create a single national market for interstate commerce. AI clearly qualifies and let's give President Trump, not Gavin Newsom or JB Pritzker or Kathy Hochul or Jared Polis, the ability to write the rules. Let's have a single federal framework that will prevent ideological capture of AI, keep it unbiased, which every conservative should want.
警惕“末日论”叙事对AI发展的影响
Brad Gerstner: 我们正在这场全球 AI 竞赛中争取胜利,我的一大担忧是 AI 在美国正变得非常不受欢迎。硅谷正在输掉关于 AI 的舆论战。末日论者现在正在用工作问题吓唬人们。他们认为美国正在发生的所有裁员都是 AI 的结果。第二,他们看到自己的电费上涨,也认为这是 AI 的结果。我与许多共和党参议员和众议员交谈过,他们说他们害怕提及“AI”这个词,因为他们的支持率会下降。我们需要扭转这种局面,因为这对美国来说是一个失败的命题。如果“反对 AI 在政治上是受欢迎的”这种观念在这里扎根,那么 David,我认为你在州一级看到的共和党州长们的情况也是如此。所以,我认为这两种说法都是错误的,但我们需要扭转局面。在中国,他们不会放慢脚步。所以,如果我们在这里自摆乌龙,因为我们认为这 somehow 是通往更大经济增长的道路而放慢脚步,那么三五年后,这将成为一个真正的国家安全和经济安全问题。
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**Brad Gerstner:** We're in this race to win AI globally and one of the major concerns I have is that AI is becoming deeply unpopular in America. Silicon Valley is losing the battle around AI. Doomers are now scaring people about jobs. They think all these job cuts that are going on in America are the result of AI. And number two, they're seeing their electric bills go up and they think that's also the result of AI. I've talked with a lot of Republican senator and House members who say they are afraid to mention the words AI because their popularity ratings go down. We need to get on the other side of that because that is a losing proposition for America. If what takes hold here is that it's politically popular to push back against AI, then David, I think that's what you're seeing at these state levels with Republican governors as well. And so, you know, I think both of those are false narratives, but we need to get on the other side. In China, they're not going to slow down. So, if we do an own goal here and slow down because we think somehow that this is the path to greater economic growth, it's going to be a real problem, both national security as well as economic security three, five years down the line.
David Sacks: 是的,我可以在此基础上补充一下吗?就公众舆论而言,末日论的叙事确实产生了巨大的影响,你可以在民调数字中看到,然后政客们觉得他们可以以某种方式利用这一点。但这些叙事从何而来?三位左翼的科技亿万富翁向这些末日论智库捐赠了超过 10 亿美元。基本上是 Dustin Moskovitz、Jaan Tallinn 和 Vitalik Buterin。他们通过 Open Philanthropy 和其他一些实体,催生了数百个这样的人为组织,花费数亿美元来传播这些末日论叙事。人们需要明白,这些叙事是有来源的,是人为制造的。我不认为它们是真实的,而且这些叙事是相互矛盾的。
David Sacks: 举个例子。现在,我们在社交媒体和主流媒体上看到的两个最大的叙事是:第一,现在有一个巨大的 AI 泡沫,换句话说,这全是假的。另一个最大的叙事是,AI 即将达到超级智能,我们都将被取代。换句话说,AI 是完全真实的,而且超级强大。这两件事是矛盾的。如果它是一个泡沫,它就不可能即将达到超级智能。如果 AI 真的那么强大,那么显然在某种程度上,这种经济活动是合理的。所以这些叙事是完全矛盾的。我认为可以两者都不信,我就是这样。但人们同时相信两者是没有道理的。而你真的看到同样的人在社交媒体和主流媒体上同时推动这两种末日论叙事。所以我认为我们需要以某种方式增强我们的免疫防御或抗体。我们需要提高对这些由具有奇怪末日论意识形态的团体(如有效利他主义)推出的迷因的抗体。他们真的只想让 AI 的进步停止。如果我们这样做,就像 Brad 说的,中国最终将赢得这场 AI 竞赛。AI 的进步不会停止,它只会全部发生在中国。
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**David Sacks:** Yeah, can I build on that actually? So in terms of the public discourse, it's true that the doomer narratives have had this tremendous effect that you can see in the poll numbers and then the politicians feel like they can basically play into that in one way or another. But where do these narratives come from? Three big tech billionaires who are on the left contributed over a billion dollars to these doomer think tanks. Basically was Dustin Moskovitz, Jaan Tallinn and Vitalik Buterine. And from Open Philanthropy and from some of these other entities, they have spun up hundreds of these astroturfed organizations that are spending literally hundreds of millions of dollars to spread these doomer narratives. People need to understand that these narratives are coming from somewhere. They're astroturfed. I don't think they're true and the narratives are contradictory.
**David Sacks:** So, let me give you an example. Right now, the two biggest narratives that we're seeing on social media and in mainstream media are number one, the idea that there's a huge AI bubble right now. In other words, it's all totally fake. The other biggest narrative is that AI is on the verge of super intelligence and we're all going to get replaced. In other words, AI is completely real and super powerful. Well, these two things are contradictory. If it's a bubble, it's not going to be on the verge of super intelligence. And if AI is really that powerful, then obviously on some level this economic activity is justified. So these narratives are completely contradictory. I think that it's possible to believe in neither one of them, which is where I'm at. But it makes no sense for people to believe in both. And you literally have the same people on social media and in mainstream media pushing both of these doomer narratives. So I think we need to increase somehow our immune defenses or our antibodies. We need to improve our antibodies to these memes that are being pushed out by groups that have these weird doomer ideologies like effective altruism and they literally just want progress to stop on AI. And if we do that, like Brad's saying, China will end up winning this AI race. Progress in AI is not going to stop. It'll just all be in China.
AI巨头的商业模式与未来挑战
Jason Calacanis: Brad,在我们进入下一个话题之前,我们来谈谈 ChatGPT 和他们的收入。如果他们的年化收入达到 200 亿美元,众所周知,他们的大部分收入来自消费者,我听到的数字是 75%。这与你的估计相符吗?每月 20 美元,一年 240 美元,这大约是每年 6000 万付费订阅。另一方面,Anthropic 的情况正好相反,他们主要是 API。这些数字和你所知道的大致相符吗,Brad?
Brad Gerstner: 嗯,我只能说这与 The Information 报道的从两家公司泄露的数据相符。这让他们都成为硅谷历史上增长最快的公司。
Jason Calacanis: 两个具有挑战性的问题给你,因为你在这里下了大赌注。谷歌、苹果免费提供这些产品,他们有非常强大的广告网络,这是一个巨大的阻力。此外,在创业社区,我们刚刚谈到 Cursor,人们不再信任 OpenAI 和他们的 API,因为他们知道 OpenAI 正在创建竞争服务。所以创业社区有一个大的趋势是不使用 OpenAI 的 API 产品。考虑到这两个阻力——消费者可以免费获得更好的产品,创业公司意识到 Sam 必须赚大钱,因此他会做微软做过的事——你对收入增长有多大信心?
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**Jason Calacanis:** Brad, let's talk brass tax before we move on to our next topic about ChatGPT and their revenue. If they're at 20 billion in revenue run rate, I think it's pretty well known their majority of their revenue is consumer. 75% is the number I heard. You can tell me if that aligns with your estimates as well. And it cost 20 bucks a month, 240 a year. That's about 60 million paid subscriptions a year. And then on the other side, you got Anthropic, which has got the opposite, right? They're mostly APIs. And do those roughly correlate with what you know, Brad?
**Brad Gerstner:** Well, I would just say they correlate with what The Information has reported as leaked data from both companies and that makes them both the fastest growing companies in the history of Silicon Valley.
**Jason Calacanis:** Two challenging questions for you since you have a big bet here. Google, Apple make these products free. They have pretty robust ad networks. That's a massive headwind. And then on top of that, in the startup community, we just talked about cursor. People are not trusting OpenAI and their API anymore because they know OpenAI is creating competing services. And so there is a big movement in the startup community to not use OpenAI's API products. How confident are you that with those two headwinds, free for consumers and better products, and startups are realizing, hey, Sam has to make a lot of money. Therefore, he's going to do what Microsoft did. How concerned are you about the revenue growth?
Brad Gerstner: 是的,听着,我赌的是超级周期。这是我们一生中最大的超级周期。我是 OpenAI、Anthropic、谷歌、微软和英伟达等的投资者。所以,我认为你现在不必断定哪家公司会赢。事实是,正如 Sacks 所说,我们拥有世界上最活跃、最具竞争力的 AI 生态系统之一。我喜欢看到 Sundar 奋起反击。我认为谷歌的 Gemini 3 会很棒。他们可能真的会免费。我认为苹果付钱给谷歌让 Siri 变得更好,这将是一个很棒的消费者体验。OpenAI 获胜的唯一途径是他们必须打造一个我们都喜爱的产品。你已经看到了那些同期群曲线。现实是,他们目前是这个领域的代名词。在消费市场,这是他们的天下,成败在此一举。同期群曲线是梦寐以求的,对吧?这是留存率,是用户随着使用服务时间的延长而产生的参与率。顺便说一句,尽管 Cursor 在做自己的事情,Anthropic 的数据仍然非常出色。我认为这个市场比目前的估计要大得多,但它不会是一条直线上升的曲线。我们会像在互联网、移动和云时代一样,经历这些恐慌的避险时刻。这里的关键是作为投资者的信念。你需要支付巨大的信念税。如果你缺乏信念,在这些东西下跌时卖出,我将赌超级周期。但我赌的是一个比大多数人更长的时间段。
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**Brad Gerstner:** Yeah, I mean, listen, I'm betting in the super cycle. This is the biggest super cycle of all of our lives. I'm an investor in OpenAI and Anthropic and Google and Microsoft and Nvidia, etc. And so, I don't think you have to make the call right now, one of these companies winning. The fact of the matter, as Sax said, we have one of the most vibrant and competitive ecosystems of in AI in the world. I love the fact that Sundar is coming off the mat swinging. I think Gemini 3 is going to be great at Google. They may in fact make it free. I think Apple, I love seeing Apple pay Google to make Siri better. I think that's going to be a great consumer experience. And the only way that OpenAI wins is they got to build a product that we all love. You've seen those cohort curves. The reality is they are the verb at the moment. It's theirs to lose in consumer. The cohort curves are things of dreams, right? This is the retention rate, the engagement rate as people stay with the service longer. And then by the way, Anthropic's numbers, despite cursor doing some of their own thing, Anthropic's numbers are off the charts. I think that this market is as big or bigger than current estimates are out there, but it's not going to be a straight line up and to the right. We're going to have these moments as Chamath said of risk-off panic just as we did with internet just as we did with mobile just as we did with cloud. The key here is as an investor is conviction. There is a massive conviction tax to be paid. If you lack conviction and sell when these things are down, I'm going to bet on the super cycle. But I'm betting over a much longer period of time than most people.
美国经济数据疲软与中产阶级的困境
Jason Calacanis: 股市正在回调,正如 Chamath 刚才所说,我们正在进入避险期。我们收到了很多数据,很多担忧。GDP 增长,嘿,也许这主要是由 AI 驱动的。失业率在上升,通货膨胀也在上升。很多令人担忧的迹象。Brad,帮我们理清一下。
Brad Gerstner: 我认为 Chamath 完美地引出了这个话题。让我们把时间倒回到今年四月。我认为在盘中,纳斯达克指数在四月份年初至今下跌了 20%。我们现在上涨了 20%。所以在几个月内上涨了 40%。标普也是如此。我认为它下跌了超过 10%,现在全年上涨了 14%。所以我们经历了一些相当大的波动。首先,有越来越多的迹象表明消费者正在退缩。你从 Chipotle、Cava、JetBlue 等公司那里都听到了。我们面临的是一个双层经济。低端消费者正在挣扎,高端消费者还在坚持。但消费者的问题让人们感到紧张。
Brad Gerstner: 更糟糕的是,美国信用卡拖欠率现在回到了 2009 年的水平。所以你有消费者出现裂痕,拖欠率上升,现在我们看到区域性银行倒闭等等。我们看到信贷市场开始出现裂痕,信贷利差略有扩大。好消息是,我们仍然有火力。本财报季,财报表现非常强劲。70% 的公司超出预期,而且超出幅度很大。但真正的问题是,当我们进入明年时会怎样。一方面,有人说第一季度我们将有一些大的退税,因为小费和加班费免税,他认为这会提振经济。但显然,你听到他们在敲桌子说我们需要降低利率。我倾向于同意,低端消费者在信用卡、车贷等方面支付很多,他们显然在受苦。我们看到这些裁员,这些裁员也在伤害一些人。
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**Jason Calacanis:** Stock market pulling back as Chamath just said. Hey, we're going to be risk off. And we have been getting a lot of data, a lot of hand wringing going on, Brad. GDP growth. Hey, maybe that's mostly due to AI. The unemployment rates ticking up, inflation's ticking up. Lots of concerning signs. Help us make sense of this, Brad.
**Brad Gerstner:** I think Chamat teed this up perfectly, which is, let's rewind the clock a little bit to April of this year. I think on an intraday basis, the NASDAQ was down 20% year to date in April. We're now up 20%. So, a 40% move higher in a few months. Same with the S&P. I think it was down over 10%, now it's up 14% on the year. So, we've had some pretty massive moves. The first one is just there's growing signs the consumer is pulling back. And you heard it out of Chipotle, you heard it out of Cava, you heard it out of JetBlue. And the nature of it is we have this two-tier economy. The low-end consumer is faltering. The higher-end consumer is hanging in there. But the consumer thing is making people nervous.
**Brad Gerstner:** Now, compounding that is US credit card delinquencies are now back to 2009 levels. So you have okay, consumer cracking a little bit, delinquencies, and now we're seeing regional banks roll over, etc. We're seeing the credit markets beginning to crack a little bit. The good news about this is we still have firepower. This earnings season, earnings have come in really strong. We have 70% of companies that are beating by wide margins. But the real question is as we roll into next year. Scott Besson on the one hand is saying, "Listen, in Q1, we're going to have some big tax refunds because of no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and he thinks that'll give it a boost." But clearly, you hear them pounding the table that we need to get rates down. I tend to agree the low-end consumer who pays a lot on their credit cards, on their car loan, etc., is clearly hurting. We see these layoffs, these layoffs are are hurting some of these people as well.
Chamath Palihapitiya: 是的,过去常常是主街(实体经济)怎样,华尔街就怎样,反之亦然。不幸的现实是,有少数几家公司的出价完全是投机性的,并且遥遥领先于未来,但它们的出价如此之高,估值如此之高,以至于它们拖动了整个指数向前。即使在水面下,你把 493 家公司甩在了后面。现实是,那些更能准确反映美国中等收入家庭情况的公司表现并不好。所以我们需要在国内政策领域找到一些看得见的胜利。我认为现在需要的就是这个。我认为特朗普总统任期的每一年都可以看作是三幕剧。第一幕是关税。第二幕是外交政策。现在是第三幕的机会,重新关注国内收入和美国中等收入家庭的国内财富效应。
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**Chamath Palihapitiya:** Yeah, it used to be the case that as goes Main Street, so goes Wall Street or vice versa. The unfortunate reality is that there's a handful of companies that have bids that are, as you said, totally speculative and well into the future, but they are so well bid and they're so highly valued that they drag the entire indices forward. Even though underneath the waterline, you're leaving 493 companies behind. And the reality is that those companies that more accurately reflect what's happening to middle income America are not doing so well. And so we need to find some visible wins in the domestic policy arena. I think that that's what we need now because if you think of each year of a presidency as an act in three parts, I think act one was tariffs. I think act two has been foreign policy. And now it's an opportunity for act three to refocus on domestic earnings and the domestic wealth effect of middle income Americans.
Jason Calacanis: 29 天前,我跟你们谈过净支持率以及国家的情绪。你可以看到特朗普的净支持率是 9.4%。现在情况变得更糟了。这是 11 月的数据,恶化了 30%。现在特朗普的支持率下降了 13%。我认为这是因为我们听到了所有裁员的消息。通货膨胀回升到 3%,每个人都知道它曾降到 2.3%,我们取得了很大进展,但现在又回升了。如果你看看下一张图表,会发现非常有趣。所有媒体都在报道外交政策。但如果你看看国家认为特朗普做得不足的地方,正是他最擅长或因此当选的领域。看看最后三项,Chamath。经济,63% 的人认为特朗普做得不足。照顾中产阶级,这应该是最令人不安的,65% 的国家认为他做得不足。通货膨胀和生活成本,66%。
Jason Calacanis: 如果你看看下一张图表,这张图在网上流传,我一直在谈论失业问题,并将其归因于 AI。我知道有些人认为我是在危言耸听,但统计数据开始倾向于我的立场。如果你看看 20 到 24 岁的人,他们的失业率是 9.2%,而且正在飙升。为什么会飙升?我可以从第一线告诉你,随着公司裁员并使用 AI 解决问题,他们认为雇佣和培训年轻人不如培训 AI 来完成同样任务有回报或有效率。
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**Jason Calacanis:** 29 days ago I talked to you guys a little bit about the net approval rating here and how the country is feeling. And you can see Trump's net approval rating 9.4. It's gotten worse. Here's the numbers from November. It's gotten 30% worse. Now Trump's down 13%. I attribute it, I think, to the fact that we've had all this layoff news. Inflation ticked up to 3%, everybody knows it was down at 2.3. We had made great progress on it, but now it went back up. If you look at this next chart, it's super interesting. What gets all the press is the foreign policy. But if you look at where the country feels Trump has fallen short, it's where he's strongest or where he was elected for being so strong. Look at these last three here, Chimath. The economy, 63% believe Trump has fallen short. Looking out for the middle class, this is the one that should be the most disturbing. 65% of the country believes he's fallen short and inflation and the cost of living, 66%.
**Jason Calacanis:** If you look at this next chart, this one has been trending online and I've been talking about unemployment and I've been attributing it to AI. I know some people think I'm crying wolf here, but the statistics are starting to trend towards my position, I believe. And if you look at people who are aged 20 to 24, they're at 9.2% unemployment and it is spiking. Why is it spiking? I can tell you from the front lines, as companies cut and they use AI to solve problems they're saying hiring young people and training them is not as rewarding or efficient as training an AI to do the same task.
纽约市长选举:社会主义思潮的兴起
Jason Calacanis: Zohran Mamdani 赢得了纽约市。民主党全面获胜。Zohran 赢得了除斯塔滕岛外的所有行政区。他自称是民主社会主义者。有些人认为他是共产主义者。他是第一位穆斯林市长,也是一百多年来最年轻的市长。他承诺的负担能力、租金冻结、免费公共交通、对富人增税等似乎引起了年轻人的共鸣,尤其是纽约的女性。我们的朋友 David Friedberg 在这个节目上预测了社会主义的兴起,比任何人都早了大约 6 个月。
David Friedberg (clip): 我的逆向看法是,我们将在 2025 年看到美国社会主义运动的急剧兴起。我们将看到由于放松管制和 AI 带来的经济增长的释放。经济的某些部分将成为大赢家,而某些部分将成为大输家。当你有这种快速的变化时,常常会有大批人被抛在后面。当这种情况发生时,我确实认为社会主义政策和社会主义运动会获得动力。增长并不意味着它对每个人都平等有利。
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**Jason Calacanis:** Zohran Mamdani has won New York City. The Dems won across the board. Zohran won every burrow except Staten Island. He's self-proclaimed Democratic socialist. Some people think he's a communist. And he's the first Muslim mayor and the youngest in over a hundred years. Big promises seem to have resonated with young folks, especially women in New York: affordability, rent freezes, free public transit, higher taxes on the rich.
**David Friedberg (clip):** My contrarian belief is that we'll see a dramatic rise in socialist movements in 2025 in the United States. We're going to see an unleashing of economic growth because of deregulation and AI. There's going to be some parts of the economy that are going to be big winners and some parts of the economy that are going to be big losers. When you have this sort of a change this fast, there are often large contingents of people that are left behind. And when that happens, I do think that the socialist policies and the socialist movements gain steam. Growth does not mean that it benefits everyone equally.
Chamath Palihapitiya: Peter Thiel 在 2020 年就预测到了这一点。Thiel 说:“从一个破碎的代际契约的角度来看,对我来说有一个非常直接的答案,即当一个人有太多的学生债务或者住房太难以负担时,那么他将在很长一段时间内拥有负资本,或者发现很难以房地产的形式开始积累资本。如果一个人在资本主义体系中没有利害关系,那么他很可能会转而反对它。” 这已经流传多年了,我认为 Thiel 多年前就再次看到了森林的全貌。所以是的,发生了什么?我认为我们已经找到了症结所在。我们现在需要回来关注国内政策,解决一些核心的顽固问题。
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**Chamath Palihapitiya:** Peter Thiel predicted this in 2020. Thiel said, "From the perspective of a broken generational compact, there seems to be a pretty straightforward answer to me, namely that when one has too much student debt or if housing is too unaffordable, then one will have negative capital for a long time and or find it very hard to start accumulating capital in the form of real estate. And if one has no stake in the capitalist system, then one may well turn against it." This has been floating around for years and I think Thiel yet again has seen the forest from the trees many years ago. So yeah, what is happening? I think that we've put our finger on it. We need to come back and now focus on domestic policy and fix some of these core pernicious issues.
破碎的代际契约与学生贷款危机
Chamath Palihapitiya: 一个明显的问题是,我们现在需要解决学生贷款的承保方式。我们不能允许一代又一代的人从他们不太了解的学位毕业,背负着数十万美元的债务,而他们根本没有机会还清。这是开始人生的糟糕方式。我们没有为这些人做好。我们需要自由市场能够告诉某人,尽管听起来可能很难,一个艺术史博士学位将花费你 80 万美元,这样选择它的人要么有钱,要么愿意承担这个成本。与此同时,如果你成为一名电工,只需要花费 4 万或 5 万美元,你就可以过上难以置信的生活。我的观点是,我们需要根据学位为人们创造的价值和收入能力来差异化定价。这是需要在全美推行的政策层面的举措。如果政府不工作,这是不可能发生的。所以我们需要解决这个问题。
Chamath Palihapitiya: 这是多年来我第一次对学生贷款豁免这个想法产生同情。我以前从未同情过这个想法。我现在同情它了。
Jason Calacanis: 你为什么同情它,Chamath?
Chamath Palihapitiya: 因为我认为我们早就应该解决这个问题了。我们不应该允许这些贷款以这种方式承保这么长时间。
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**Chamath Palihapitiya:** One is clearly that we now need to address how student loans are underwritten. We cannot allow generation after generation of people to graduate from degrees that they don't quite understand with hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt that they have zero chance of paying off. That is a horrible way to start your life. And we have not done right by these folks. We need the free market to be able to tell somebody, as hard as it may sound, to hear that an art history PhD will cost you $800,000 so that the people that take it have the money or are willing to bear that cost. Meanwhile, if you became an electrician, it would only cost you 40 or 50,000 and you could have an incredible life. My point is that we need to differentially price degrees based on the value and the earnings power that it creates for people. That is a policy level initiative that needs to cascade through America. That cannot happen if the government is not working. So we need to fix that.
**Chamath Palihapitiya:** This was the first moment in years where I have now become sympathetic to this idea of student loan forgiveness. I was never sympathetic to this idea. I am sympathetic to it now.
**Jason Calacanis:** Why are you sympathetic to it, Chama?
**Chamath Palihapitiya:** Because I think that we should have fixed this problem a long time ago. We should have not allowed these loans to be underwritten the way that it was for so long.
David Sacks: 好吧。看,我只谈狭义的贷款豁免。我实际上同意,如果你对整个系统进行彻底改革,也许贷款应该被豁免。你不想做的是承认所有贷款都是坏的,需要被核销,然后继续发放它们。我认为拜登贷款豁免计划的问题就在于此,他要核销数万亿美元的贷款,同时继续资助这个没有任何改革的系统。所以,让我们谈谈一个大的改革方案,我们完全重新设计我们如何做这件事,也许一些贷款豁免可以成为其中的一部分,这样我们就不会有所有这些毕业的孩子基本上都是社会主义者,因为他们深陷债务,永远无法在这个体系中拥有资本。
David Sacks: 顺便说一句,JCal,也许所有这些千禧一代都是社会主义者,可能与他们找不到工作有关。如果他们不相信资本主义,谁他妈的想雇一个年轻的列宁 2.0 共产主义革命者到他们公司?他们怎么能在一个资本主义体系中往上爬?也许这与所有这些孩子都是社会主义者和初级共产主义革命有关,而不是责怪我们最喜欢的替罪羊 AI。
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**David Sacks:** Okay. So, look, I just on the narrow loan forgiveness point. So, I actually agree that maybe loans should be forgiven if you get a total overhaul of the system. What you don't want to do is acknowledge that all the loans are bad and they need to be written off and then continue making them. And that was the problem with, I think, the Biden loan forgiveness program is he's going to write off trillions of dollars of loans while keep funding the system without any reform. So, let's talk about a big reform package where we completely re-underwrite how we do this and maybe some loan forgiveness can be part of that so that we don't have all these kids graduating who are basically socialists because they're so deeply in debt they're never going to own capital in the system.
**David Sacks:** By the way, JCal, maybe the fact that all these millennials are socialists might have something to do with the fact they're unemployable. Who the hell wants to hire young Lenin 2.0 communist revolutionary to be in their company if they don't believe in capitalism. How are they going to work their way up through a capitalist system? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that all these kids are socialists and junior communist revolution rather than blaming our favorite scapegoat AI.
Brad Gerstner: 是的。所以,那场辩论是在斯坦福大学,由经济系赞助,主题是美国是否应该允许亿万富翁存在。我不能谈论我们在房间里辩论的内容,因为有查塔姆宫规则,但我会告诉你,绝大多数人在进来时认为应该在美国禁止亿万富翁。我认为这关乎美国的灵魂,是一场根本性的斗争。这涉及到美国梦最基本的前提。美国还有经济流动性吗?但我认为共和党人必须正视这个问题。我认为他们已经这样做了。总统以主街议程竞选。他通过了《投资美国法案》,我认为他完全明白其中的利害关系。70% 的人感到被排斥和被抛弃。他们觉得这个系统对他们不公。当像 Mandami 这样的人出现,承诺免费提供一切,他能解决所有这些问题时,我认为这对感到沮丧的年轻人非常有诱惑力。
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**Brad Gerstner:** Yes. So, the debate was at Stanford sponsored by the economics department on whether or not billionaires should be allowed to exist in America. I can't talk about what we debated in the room as Chattam House rules, but I will tell you this that a preponderance of people on their way in, you know, thought that they should ban billionaires in the United States. I think it's a fundamental fight for the soul of America going on right now. This goes to the very basic premise of the American dream. Is there economic mobility in America? But I think Republicans have to get real about this. I think they have. The president ran on a main street agenda. He passed the Invest America Act, I think he absolutely gets what's at stake. 70% of people feel left out and left behind. They feel like the system is rigged against them. And when you have somebody like Mandami who comes along and promises everything under the sun for free, that he can solve all of these problems, I think it's very enticing for young people who are frustrated.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Brad Gerstner, Sam Altman, Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sacks, Sarah Friar, Jensen Huang, Donald Trump, Andy Jassy, Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, Peter Thiel, Joe Biden, David Friedberg, Vitalik Buterin, Eric Schmidt, Gavin Newsom, Kathy Hochul, Joe Manchin
公司/组织: OpenAI, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, Broadcom, Google, Meta, Apple, Anthropic, The Wall Street Journal, CCP, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Amazon, Intel, Chipotle, Cava, JetBlue, Morgan Stanley, Stanford University
产品/模型: ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Grok, Stargate, Siri
媒体/书籍: All-In Podcast, BG2 Podcast, The Information, Kill Tony, The Dark Knight