Last week we got two blockbuster releases.

No, I'm not talking about movies. I'm talking about financial documents.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled his government's first budget.

Two days later, Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy made a presentation of his own Ontario's fall economic update.

Both documents reveal political priorities as well as economic realities.

Ottawa and Queen's Park both say, among other things, they are prioritising workers and infrastructure and trying to provide stability during uncertain economic times.

Is that just spin?

What do the numbers really say, and will Ontario get what it wants from the feds?

And then Carney and Ford both have big plans to build.

But do we have the workers, and is Ontario doing enough to train up tradespeople?

Welcome to The Rundown.

So the federal budget, $280 billion in overall spending, a $78.3 billion deficit.

Then we have Ontario's fall economic update, around $235 billion in spending and a $13.5 billion deficit.

That's how it shakes out on a spreadsheet.

But what do those numbers actually mean?

What can they tell us about our government's real priorities and our auto on Queen's Park?

On the same page, I got some insight from TVO Today's John Michael McGrath.

John Michael McGrath, welcome to the program.

I feel like you're everywhere: tvo.org, OnPoli, and now you're officially on The Rundown.

This looks probably a little familiar to you.

>> Yes, same room, dressed slightly differently, but happy to be here.

>> TV magic nobody needs to know.

All right, let's start with the Ontario Economic Update.

What were the sort of big differences between this release versus let's go back to the spring 2025.

>> So it's a $13.5 billion deficit, which is a slightly smaller than what the government was projecting earlier this year in the spring.

That's primarily being driven by stronger than expected tax revenues.

And they've held the line more or less on spending.

It has not grown very much.

That said, there are some storm clouds that the government is worried about.

Economic trouble.

The economy has already contracted slightly in the previous quarter, and we're not projecting an outright recession, which is two quarters of consecutive shrinkage, but they are concerned about that.

And so there's a lot of money in this budget. Sorry. This fall economic statement for, you know, supporting workers, supporting businesses, helping to diversify Ontario trade, that kind of thing.

>> All right. You talked about budget.

Let's show some graphs.

Actually this is looking at the federal budgets 2025 projected deficits.

If we start on the left, you'll see 78 billion for the 2020, 2526 year.

You can see that dark number there.

That is the capital investment which we will talk about.

And then as you move down to the right, $65 billion to the next, and then we gradually fall to $57 billion.

So how does Ontario's deficit projections compare with those we saw in the federal budget?

>> Well, smaller to begin with.

The of course, the Ontario budget is smaller than the federal one, but the deficit is much more manageable provincially than it is federally.

And the way you can tell that is that Ontario is hoping to have its budget more or less balanced within two years time.

That is not the case federally.

We just saw in that chart deficits more or less as far as the eye can see, federally speaking.

Now, the type of deficit is going to change if the federal government's plans go the way they want to.

So they are looking to really shift the deficit from funding the sort of the day to day operations of the government, which is more or less what is happening now and really hoping to shift that into longer term capital investments.

This is what Prime Minister Mark Carney means when he says he wants the government to spend less but invest more.

And so they are looking at big capital projects, things like the always promised, never built high speed rail between Toronto and Montreal, that kind of thing.

>> All right, actually, let's pull up another chart here.

This is the capital investments historical and projected.

You can see on the left side from 2020 2021 a bit lower, around 10 billion to about just under 30 billion.

And then we see these bigger numbers.

Now it should be important to mention historical versus projected with those numbers.

When we're looking at this chart, will that change drastically.

Just looking at sort of what what historical versus projected.

>> Yeah.

And so I guess there's two things to say there.

You can see that the capital spending has been heading up slowly in prior years, but that doesn't explain the deficit.

The deficit is overwhelmingly been driven by a very large increase in spending since Covid 19.

In particular, the future increases.

That's really where we're going to see whether the federal government can really meet its promises in terms of getting capital spending out the door.

And, you know, this is ties into things that Mark Carney has been talking about.

About, you know, faster approvals for federal projects, that kind of thing.

Both the provincial and federal government have introduced legislation to really streamline approvals, that kind of thing.

And they so far, we've seen some small steps in that direction.

The next several years, of course, we're going to see whether the federal government can match an increase in spending with faster approvals and actually get things built faster.

>> All right.

Both governments announced more money for capital infrastructure projects, as you mentioned.

What did they say about support and funding for skilled trades?

Obviously lots of headlines around that.

Perhaps the Ontario government would say not the greatest headlines, but what kind of supports are there for jobs for for investments and that that will be required.

>> Yeah. So like nothing gets built without somebody putting a nail in a two by four somewhere.

And so both governments are making lots of money available to help support skilled trades.

Now you alluded to the skills development fund that the provincial government has.

This is something like $1.5 billion that the government has disbursed to various groups over the last several years.

That is staying at its current level of funding in the current fall economic statement.

No changes there now, no changes, for better or worse, because of course, it has been a bit of a scandal for the last several weeks because it turns out that some of the recipients of that money have been politically aligned with the government, and they have then turned around in some cases and spent that money on lobbyists who are themselves close to the government.

So a bit of a scandal there.

The government, of course, denies any impropriety.

We should say that federally, the budget does include $75 million for what they're calling the Union Training and Innovation Program.

This is also intended to help support skilled trades and particularly, as the name implies, unionised skilled trades.

So, you know, you can see both governments are very alive to this notion that they want to get things built, that building things is going to require skilled workers.

For many years, both federal and provincial governments around Canada have been very worried about a wave of retirements shrinking our skilled trade labour force.

So this might arguably be overdue.

And, you know, again, I think we will see how this plays out.

I think certainly provincially, there's been a lot of success in recruiting people into the skilled trades.

And one of the prior Labour ministers was very, very passionate about what he said, like removing the stigma of the skilled trades, getting, you know, high school kids to think of trades as an alternative to solely going into university.

And yeah, they are working on this and this is obviously a priority for both levels of government.

>> JM, we are going to leave it there.

Thank you for that.

Quick 101 on the Ontario Economic Fall update and the budget.

>> Thanks for having me.

>> Both Ottawa and Queen's Park want shovels and in Ontario's case, tunnels in the ground.

But to build that kind of future, we obviously need people who can build.

Ontario has been trying to tackle the shortage of tradespeople with programs like the Skills Development Fund, which has been making the wrong kind of headlines.

But is it still the right approach despite the scandals?

What obstacles are getting in the way of building up skilled trades?

I ask Karen Renkema, vice president of the Progressive Contractors Association of Canada and board member of Skilled Trades Ontario, and Brian Baron, CEO of the Ontario Construction Secretariat.

Karen, Brian, welcome to the program.

How are you guys doing?

>> Great. Thanks for having us.

>> All right, so let's start off with last week's news.

The federal and Ontario government said that they were going to spend on capital projects in the future.

Good news.

But I want to get sort of the lay of the land here, and I'll come to you first if and when big projects do get off the ground. Does Ontario have enough skilled labour to build them?

>> This is interesting because there's different sectors of the construction economy.

I think for, you know, individuals probably think of the construction sector economy where it affects them and that's residential.

And right now, actually the residential sector in the construction economy is very, very slow.

So there's a number of individuals within the residential sector, whether it be carpenters, whether it be plumbers, electricians that may not be busy right now and can transfer their skill sets to different portions of the economy.

But that's not a forever thing.

That's we're in a dip.

And this is the construction industry.

There's a lot of peaks, a lot of valleys.

And in this scenario, we're maybe okay today because we have different sectors that are maybe not performing as high as they should be.

But in 2 or 3 years from now, when all these projects get on stream, no build, Force Canada suggests that we need over 100,000 construction workers to fill the spots that retirements are taking, but also to increase the workforce in order to do the projects that we should be doing.

>> All right, Brian, we'll talk about the cycle of the construction industry, but get us a sense, we talk about that, the generational, quote unquote, generational investments that the federal government, the provincial government are spending on these projects.

But do we have the skilled labour?

>> So the short answer is, is no.

I think that we we are going to be short.

Our numbers are showing by 2034 there's going to be a shortage of about 50,000 workers.

That takes into account attrition, takes into account newcomers, immigration, that sort of thing.

So there definitely is going to be a shortage.

Similar to what Karen said about the residential side of things is, yes, that that particular sector is very, very slow.

There's going to be a number of workers who are out of work, especially when we take a look at the high rise sectors in the more urban areas Toronto, Ottawa, London, that sort of thing where that's really kind of slowed down a fair bit.

So there are going to be some workers that will move over temporarily into the icy, heavy civil road side of things.

But overall, yes, there is definitely going to be a shortage that's out there.

>> Karen, help us understand sort of the supply line when we talk about training, what is the gap between tradespeople who are retiring versus those who are coming in entering, say, an apprenticeship?

>> I think to the general public, we say, you know, the focus on the government has had had for the past five years is that, yes, we're going to attract more skilled trades workers.

And I would say the general public probably says, okay, we'll attract them.

They come in, they start working and that's it.

That's that's not the case in an apprenticeship,

in a in an apprenticeship, it can take 4 to 5, in some cases six years depending on how much training is actually available in class training, whether the apprentice is getting their hours, it can take that long for an apprentice to get their certificate of qualification.

So the lag time between what we're seeing is a huge increase in registrations over the past five years because of the focus that government has put on apprenticeship and skilled trades.

But the lag time between that and completions is quite substantial, depending on what trade you're in,

in the voluntary trades, in, in some of the in some of the trades where you don't require a certificate of qualification, you'll see probably it's a little bit of a clearer pathway.

It's quicker you can attract those individuals in the industry.

They can kind of try a trade.

They can figure out where they want to be.

But in trades that are compulsory, that pathway is quite long.

And part of the Brian spoke to it a little bit, but part of the challenge has actually been we've attracted so many individuals into the trades, specifically in Ontario, but across the country, but specifically in Ontario, they've done such a great job.

But the training capacity for the in-class portion of the apprenticeship training has not kept pace with the number of individuals that we're attracting into the trades.

So as an apprentice, you know, you do most of your learning on the job, but there are in-class portions in some trades, three, three times you go to school and some, you know, to a college or a training centre.

Other trades four times.

But those spaces that are funded and delivered through training delivery agencies, but funded through the government, have not kept pace with the number of individuals that are interested in the trades.

>> Brian, Ontario's skills development fund.

It's been getting headlines sometimes at the moment for all the wrong reasons, but I want to have better understanding of how effective the program has been in attracting and training people for a career in the trades.

>> Overall, I'd say it's been outstanding.

It's been a great success.

It's certainly something that the industry very much appreciates, especially when we consider some of the pre-apprenticeship programs trying to attract, you know, high school students, that sort of stuff into the construction trades for quite a long time.

I mean, I grew up in a generation where it was basically thought of that unless you went to university, you weren't going to be successful in life.

And that's really what was driven into each and every one of us, which created a bit of a stigma around the skilled trades.

The Skills Development Fund has actually really helped from that side of things.

So whether it is bringing new people into the trades, exposing them to it, or making it more accessible for some remote communities as well as underrepresented groups, it's done a fabulous job that way.

So it's it's really brought a lot of people in.

It's given them the ability to get into the skilled trades.

And I think really kind of see that path to success beyond what we sort of traditionally thought were, were some of the more, I would say kind of the more mainstream ways through to careers.

So it's done an incredible job that way.

>> Karen.

>> Yeah, to Brian's point, it's it's provided a lot of flexibility in the system that didn't exist prior to this.

I think we just had kind of the the the three pillars.

We had college, we had university and we had the trades, and the trades was always really forgotten.

And it was the pathway into the trades.

Although the government's doing a great job through skilled trades, Ontario and through a number of different agencies that are doing a great job in trying to make the path a little bit more simplistic.

It's still like what we call either the New York Subway map or the Tokyo subway map for an individual to try to understand how to navigate to the point of getting into the trades and what the Skills Development Fund has done, is, it's provided a lot of really innovative kind of introductory programs in order.

We talked about try a trade, but in order for individuals to get into a pre-apprenticeship program or a bootcamp type of program where they are, they're able to kind of see, okay, this is what the industry is like.

These are the expectations.

Here are here's all the safety training that needs to take place before you even step on the job site and provides all of that to to young individuals as well.

And it's also provided from an employer standpoint, representing employers. It's also provided the employers a little bit more, I would say direction on some of the training.

I mean, the employers kind of know best on what's happening within the industry and what the what skill sets that are needed.

And I would suggest that, you know, this, this skill development fund has been really innovative, responsive, flexible to some of the upskilling that's needed in the industry, but also the attraction of individuals in the industry and reaching groups that maybe routinely were not reached prior to this.

>> Brian, what would you say is one of the biggest advantages of Ontario system overall?

>> So there's there's multiple pathways.

And I think that that is really important.

So for some folks, they're going to go through the college system.

In other cases, they're going to go through some of the trades training centres.

What it really does is it allows for people that are not necessarily in some of the heavier urban areas to be able to access this training, to be able to access apprenticeships and really get into the skilled trades.

So I, I would say that one of the biggest strengths for Ontario is really kind of the broad reach that we have right across the province.

We really are in every corner of the province and well represented.

So there's there are lots of opportunities.

And then I think also one of the other keys, at least from the from the unionised side of things as well, is really looking at the underrepresented groups.

So making sure that we're, we're providing lots of opportunities for indigenous youth to get into the trades as well as inner city groups as well.

So it's it's something where there's there is a lot of time, effort and money that it's actually put into bringing people into the trades who might not otherwise end up there.

So it's it's really providing career pathways for people right across the province.

>> Karen, Brian had touched on some of the the stigma associated with entering the trades.

I can appreciate that that stigma has changed over the years.

There's been some progress in that.

But are there any other obstacles that you look at right away? That is something that is blocking the supply chain of young workers who want to get into trades right away?

>> Yeah, I think the stigma is slowly eroding.

I wouldn't say it's I mean, this was generations upon generations that actually built this stigma.

I'm in the same place as Brian, in which university was the only pathway that was really offered to me.

I was so impressed walking into my son's school, the or his potential high school the other day to see this massive room dedicated to carpentry, right?

That probably five years ago was it was not in existence.

I would say it's it's a slow, slow erosion getting much better, I think.

I think, you know, successfully we've convinced the youth, but I'm not sure we're quite there with the parents.

And I say the the biggest layer is probably the education system and to no fault of its own, except for it wasn't really a required pathway or something for them to concentrate on over the past 10, 20, I don't know, even 25 years or so that this erosion has taken place.

So I would say we're getting to the point where the stigma is there.

I don't think we've completely accomplished that, but the work that is being put into place with with mentors, mentoring, guidance counselors, actual the Ontario Youth Apprenticeship Program that's been expanded amongst many different high schools across the province, like Brian said, from Kenora down to Windsor, that is that we're getting there.

But I think really the focus really needs to be in the next five years on really making it integrated within the school system, making it a career option already in grade ten.

So in grade 11, they can probably start getting 1 or 2 credits and and start accomplishing their hours towards their apprenticeship.

At that time that's been introduced as well.

But we're getting there.

But there are still some hiccups.

>> Brian, I want to have a better understanding of the perspective of a small or medium sized business.

Why might a business be reluctant to take on apprentices?

>> Oh, a lot of it comes down to to really time and money.

I mean, when you consider bringing on an apprentice, there is a learning curve that's that comes along with that.

You know, a lot of people think of construction as really kind of a pretty rudimentary activity to, to undertake, where you're just kind of slapping together a couple pieces of wood or something along those lines.

And the fact is, is construction's actually become really quite complicated in terms of understanding kind of the, you know, the materials that are being used, even in terms of how advanced a lot of our projects are.

There's a lot of training, a lot of knowledge that goes along with that and with bringing on a new apprentice, very similar to any other business that's out there.

There is a training element to that, and trying to bring somebody up to speed with everything that they're expected to do on the site does require really strong supervision.

You can't just leave somebody to kind of work their way through the career.

It's not it's not that learn on the job type thing that I think a lot of people think it is to be able to do construction work in a safe manner and in a professional way, requires a tremendous amount of training.

It requires a lot of supervision, and it is definitely a consideration, you know, for employers to make sure that that they're prepared to bring on that apprentice.

Bottom line is, is they do need to prepare for the future.

They do need to kind of, you know, work their way through kind of that, that succession planning and that kind of stuff, bringing, you know, an apprentice through that, that journey person level, really getting them that certificate of qualification to make sure that they are competent to do that job, to be able to provide a quality building.

So it's it is a big consideration, but certainly something that has to happen, you know, and as as construction continues to build, continues to become a little more complex and that kind of stuff, those are all huge considerations for any employer.

>> Karen.

>> Yeah, we have we represent employers that are incredibly large, that are employing thousands of individuals, as well as employers that are employing 5 to 10 individuals across the province and small little communities.

And the one thing that I think the biggest hiccup for these employers is really the understanding and navigating the system.

Like, what does it take to register an apprentice?

What does it mean that I'm watching the hours in the logbook.

Which tasks do they have to accomplish in order to get to their first tranche of schooling?

There's there's so much learning that takes place.

On trying to navigate the system for both the apprentice and the employer, that just just that idea of the administration, sometimes for small and medium sized employer that's doing this off the side of their desk, after doing their accounting, after doing everything else, the job scheduling it is it can be quite daunting.

I think the other fear for employers generally is that they, you know, employers want to support the youth.

They want them to learn.

They don't want to not have an apprentice succeed.

They want to see the apprentice succeed.

And I think for some employers, they're they're not necessarily sure that they can spend enough time mentoring.

Or are they going to be able to ensure that they get all the tasks that are done within the logbook to accomplish all those tasks in order to to to be able to write their certificate of qualification?

I mean, in a plumber, there's, you know, for a plumber, there's so many different tasks that a small little plumbing company may not offer.

Every single task that is included in order to understand and write your certificate of qualification.

So and I can speak a little bit more about this, but one, one of the I would say one of the, the, the biggest success of the Skills Development Fund is their funding of what's called group sponsorship programs for small and medium sized employers across the province that provide both the apprentice and the small and medium sized employer.

The ability to kind of navigate the system a little bit more and support that portion of the economy in training as well.

>> All right, Brian, I'm going to get you to add on to that in terms of, you know, apprenticeships.

We know the unemployment rates in Ontario and Canada are rising.

We talked about the sort of cyclical way the construction industry works.

When we talk about residential as well, it may drive people, in some cases to just walk away from construction entirely, let alone looking and seeking apprenticeships.

What could Ontario do to support apprenticeships and other trades when times do get tough?

>> Well, I think I think they're doing it right now.

I think they're doing a great job with that skills development, funding.

It is exactly what is required to make sure that we get people into apprenticeships and make sure that they successfully complete them.

That's one of the biggest issues, is making sure that the apprentices go all the way through their apprenticeship.

So whether it's a two, three, 4 or 5 year apprenticeship, it's trying to get them through to the point where they've actually got their, you know, their journeyperson or the certificate of qualification that follows that.

So I think it's a matter of supporting them through it.

It's making sure that there's a strong pipeline of work that's there.

So right now, I mean, we've been very fortunate in that we've got a very strong pipeline in terms of our, you know, hospitals being built, the heavy civil.

So things like transit, that sort of thing.

It's really keeping the construction sector alive.

You know, this year with tariffs and that sort of stuff going on.

>> Karen, what barriers exist between provinces that prevent some people in the trades from moving freely between them?

>> So there's been legislation introduced and Ontario took leadership on this as well as Nova Scotia to kind of, I would say, attempt to break down many of these barriers.

The great thing about the construction industry and other trades is there are a bucket of trades called Red Seal trades in which if you are a Red Seal certified trade across the country, you can move from Ontario to British Columbia to Alberta with your Red Seal status.

It's recognised across all the provinces.

Not every single construction, trade or industrial trade or even service sector trade has that recognition of a Red seal trade.

I mean, you do you do with chefs as well, but you don't necessarily have that with every single trade.

So the movement of individuals in the trades themselves is also has been a challenge for provinces, because each province has a different list of what is a compulsory trade and what is not a compulsory trade.

So I would say the apprentices actually face more of a hurdle, because it all depends on how the apprenticeship timing for in class is, is sequence.

So you in Ontario you may be doing different things in your first tranche of in class than you might be doing in British Columbia.

So you can still probably you can still create those hours.

You can still get your hours and work to your 8000 or 9000 or whatever it may be,

but you are going to face a hurdle when it's time for you to go to in class and take your in-class portion of your apprenticeship, because those are sequenced differently in different province depending on the trade.

So the apprentice actually faces, in many cases, more of a hurdle than the actual journeyperson who has finished their apprenticeship.

>> There are some challenges, but from what I understand from our conversation today, there is a pathway for our industry, so we're going to leave it there.

Karen, Brian, thank you so much.

Really appreciate your insights on this one.

>> Thank you for your time.

>> Thanks so much.

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