从查理·柯克遇刺案看美国社会撕裂与中美关系走向 夸克说 2025-10-26

引言:查理·柯克遇刺案与信息失真

大家好,欢迎收看夸克说,我是夸克,这期我们来聊聊查理·柯克(Charlie Kirk: 美国保守派活动家,Turning Point USA创始人)遇刺的事件。

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Hello everyone, welcome to Quark Says, I'm Quark, and in this episode, we're going to talk about the assassination attempt on Charlie Kirk.

由于工作方式和带孩子的原因,我通常无法像其他YouTuber那样第一时间给出点评或描述事件细节。

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Due to my work style and childcare responsibilities, I usually can't provide immediate commentary or describe event details like other YouTubers.

等到我的节目上线时,大家该看的也都看过了,这是我们这个频道的弱项。

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By the time my show goes online, everyone who wanted to watch it would have already seen it, which is a weakness of our channel.

这里也要感谢我们频道的老观众,能包容我这方面的不足。

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I'd also like to thank our long-time viewers for tolerating this shortcoming.

但这也给了我一个优势,就是对于同一件事,我能有相对充裕的时间去思考。

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However, this also gives me an advantage: I have relatively ample time to think about the same event.

因为很多时候,一个事件刚出来,你第一时间得到的信息未必是准确的,后面可能还会有些变数。

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Because often, when an event first breaks, the information you get immediately might not be accurate, and there could be further developments later.

你晚点评论就有更多时间去修正之前的一些观点。

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Commenting later gives you more time to revise previous opinions.

比如,查理·柯克这个事件刚发生时,就出现了很多现在看来不太准确的信息。

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For instance, when the Charlie Kirk incident first occurred, a lot of information emerged that now seems inaccurate.

例如,凶手的父亲是警察,凶手本人是MAGA(Make America Great Again: 前总统特朗普的竞选口号,代表其支持者群体),还给特朗普投过票,动机是觉得查理·柯克不够极端等等。

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For example, it was reported that the assailant's father was a police officer, the assailant himself was MAGA and had voted for Trump, and the motive was that Charlie Kirk wasn't extreme enough, and so on.

不少自媒体也第一时间依据这些信息,草率得出了一些不太靠谱的结论。

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Many self-media outlets also rushed to draw unreliable conclusions based on this information.

所以,查理遇刺的事件其实给了我们一点启示,那就是遇到事情别急着下定论,不妨再等等。

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So, the Charlie Kirk assassination attempt actually gave us a revelation: when something happens, don't rush to conclusions; it's better to wait.

美国社会撕裂的现状与言论自由的边界

为什么“再等等”这件事如此重要呢?

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Why is "waiting" so important?

因为今天美国遭遇的前所未有的撕裂,很大程度上就是这种不想再等、急不可耐的心态造成的。

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Because the unprecedented division America faces today is largely caused by this impatient, eager-to-conclude mindset.

有人可能会说,美国不是一直这样吗?

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Some might say, hasn't America always been like this?

党派之间有矛盾,民众观点有冲突,民主国家言论自由嘛。

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There are conflicts between parties, clashes of public opinion, and freedom of speech in a democratic country.

之前南北战争、民权运动、越战不都这样吗?

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Weren't the Civil War, the Civil Rights Movement, and the Vietnam War all like this?

这次有什么不同呢?

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What's different this time?

确实不同。

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It is indeed different.

我观察到一个现象,那就是今天的美国社会已经撕裂到没法让事实说话,达成最低程度的共识了。

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I've observed a phenomenon: today's American society is so divided that facts can no longer speak for themselves, making it impossible to reach even a minimum level of consensus.

什么意思呢?

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What does that mean?

在传统的思想自由市场理论中,我们一般认为只要让所有的观点自由竞争,最终谎言会不攻自破,而真相会自动浮出水面,引导公众获得更客观的认知。

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In the traditional theory of the free market of ideas, we generally believe that as long as all viewpoints compete freely, lies will eventually collapse, and the truth will automatically emerge, guiding the public to a more objective understanding.

这里稍微插一句,因为经常有人在我评论区留言说某某的言论极端错误,所以不值得保护,甚至弄死他都很正常。

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Just a quick interjection here, because people often comment on my channel saying that certain statements are extremely wrong and therefore not worth protecting, and even that killing the person who made them would be normal.

这个理解是有问题的,因为言论自由主要就是要保护可能错误的言论。

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This understanding is problematic, because freedom of speech primarily aims to protect potentially erroneous statements.

理由很简单,一个在社会大部分人都觉得正确的言论根本不需要保护,大家都觉得你对,还保护什么呢?

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The reason is simple: a statement that most people in society consider correct doesn't need protection at all; if everyone agrees with you, what is there to protect?

恰恰是因为某种言论多数人都觉得不对,可能有人想站出来干掉你,或者政府想给你关起来,这才需要保护。

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It is precisely because the majority of people disagree with certain statements, and someone might want to silence you or the government might want to imprison you, that protection is needed.

有人可能会说,按你这个说法,难道种族歧视、歧视LGBT或者女性也属于言论自由范畴,也该受到保护吗?

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Some might ask, according to your argument, do racial discrimination, discrimination against LGBT individuals, or women also fall under freedom of speech and deserve protection?

很遗憾地说,如果按照美国宪法第一修正案(First Amendment: 保护言论、宗教、新闻、集会和请愿自由),是的。

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Regrettably, according to the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, yes.

也就是说,即使是极度令人反感、冒犯性的,甚至具有歧视性的言论,也应该受到保护。

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That is to say, even extremely offensive, provocative, or discriminatory speech should be protected.

比如在2017年的马塔尔诉塔姆案(Matal v. Tam: 美国最高法院裁定,禁止注册贬低性商标的法律违反了言论自由)中,一个叫塔姆的亚裔摇滚乐队乐手想注册一个商标叫Slant(咪咪眼: 对亚洲人的贬低性称呼)。

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For example, in the 2017 Matal v. Tam case, an Asian rock band musician named Tam wanted to register a trademark called "Slant."

塔姆的本意是想用反讽的方式来回击某些人对于亚裔的歧视。

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Tam's original intention was to use irony to counter certain people's discrimination against Asians.

结果到了商标局那被打回来了,理由是不能注册可能具有贬低性内容的商标。

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However, it was rejected by the Trademark Office on the grounds that trademarks with potentially disparaging content could not be registered.

结果官司一路打到美国最高法院,最高法院裁决商标局败诉,因为违反了宪法第一修正案,侵犯了当事人的言论自由。

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The case eventually went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which ruled against the Trademark Office because it violated the First Amendment, infringing upon the party's freedom of speech.

但这里需要说明的是,尽管歧视性言论受到保护,但如果它持续发酵,变成了仇恨性言论,也就是煽动暴力、威胁或者构成了针对特定个体的骚扰的话,依然是违法的。

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However, it's important to note that while discriminatory speech is protected, if it escalates into hate speech—meaning it incites violence, makes threats, or constitutes harassment against specific individuals—it remains illegal.

事实失灵:查理·柯克案与历史事件的对比

扯远了,说回前面提到的,我们支持让思想自由竞争,是相信多数人的理性,但近两年的现实让我们愈发感觉到这个规律似乎正在失灵。

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Getting back on track, we support the free competition of ideas, trusting in the rationality of the majority, but recent realities over the past two years have increasingly made us feel that this principle seems to be failing.

以查理·柯克遇刺案来说,在以往的美国发生这类事情,无论大家政治观点多么不同,但对于事实的认定还是大体一致的,并且有可能推动法律政策的走向,影响历史进程。

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Taking the Charlie Kirk assassination attempt as an example, in past incidents of this kind in the United States, regardless of how different people's political views were, there was generally a broad consensus on the facts, and such events could influence the direction of legal policies and historical processes.

比如经常被拿来对比的马丁·路德·金(Martin Luther King Jr.: 美国民权运动领袖)遇刺案,关于刺杀动机,尽管存在种种疑点,但绝大多数人还是倾向于认为凶手詹姆斯·厄尔·雷(James Earl Ray: 刺杀马丁·路德·金的凶手)具有极端种族主义形象。

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For instance, in the often-compared assassination of Martin Luther King Jr., despite various doubts about the motive, the vast majority of people still tended to believe that the assassin, James Earl Ray, had an extreme racist image.

随后美国一百多个城市发生了大规模骚乱和黑人罢工,并因此推动国会通过了**《公平住房法案》**(Fair Housing Act: 禁止在房屋买卖和租赁中基于种族、宗教、性别等因素的歧视)。

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Subsequently, widespread riots and Black labor strikes occurred in over a hundred American cities, which then prompted Congress to pass the Fair Housing Act.

在这个过程中,哪怕原来的种族主义者,最痛恨金的人,也极少去否认凶手的身份和动机。

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During this process, even original racists, those who hated King the most, rarely denied the assailant's identity and motive.

简单说,就是整个社会被事实说服了:一个种族主义者杀了平权领袖,我们应该做点什么来改变这种仇恨氛围。

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Simply put, society as a whole was convinced by the facts: a racist killed a civil rights leader, and we should do something to change this atmosphere of hatred.

类似的还有肯尼迪(John F. Kennedy: 美国第35任总统)遇刺案,推动了**《民权法案》(Civil Rights Act: 禁止基于种族、肤色、宗教、性别或国籍的歧视)和《投票权法案》**(Voting Rights Act: 禁止在投票中进行种族歧视)的通过。

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Similarly, the assassination of John F. Kennedy spurred the passage of the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act.

那个年代的美国人政治观点再有分歧,也还是讲道理的。

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Americans of that era, despite their political differences, were still reasonable.

用《古惑仔》里李亮坤的话说就是:“出来混,有错就要认,挨打要立正。”

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As Li Leung-kun from "Young and Dangerous" would say, "When you're out in the world, admit your mistakes and stand firm when you get hit."

而今天的美国变成了什么呢?

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But what has America become today?

变成了“事实俱在,自说自话”,也就是同样一件事,一个人,一颗子弹上的标语,双方各自表述,各自解读。

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It has become a place where "facts exist, but everyone speaks for themselves," meaning for the same event, the same person, a slogan on a bullet, both sides offer their own narratives and interpretations.

左边说凶手是极右翼,右边说他是极左。

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The left says the assailant is far-right, while the right says he is far-left.

并且,即便在FBI(Federal Bureau of Investigation: 美国联邦调查局)公布了一系列信息,包括凶手泰勒·罗宾逊(Taylor Robinson: 查理·柯克遇刺案嫌犯)和他的跨性别男友的聊天记录,以及泰勒从未给特朗普(Donald Trump: 美国前总统)捐款,也不是活跃选民,没投过票之后,推特和小红书上依然有很多人在继续传播凶手是MAGA、曾经给特朗普投票捐款,并且出现了质疑FBI伪造聊天记录试图抹黑左翼的声音。

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Furthermore, even after the FBI released a series of information, including chat records between the assailant, Taylor Robinson, and his trans boyfriend, and confirmed that Taylor had never donated to Trump and was not an active voter, nor had he ever cast a ballot, many people on Twitter and Xiaohongshu continued to spread claims that the assailant was MAGA, had voted for and donated to Trump, and voices emerged questioning whether the FBI had fabricated chat records to smear the left.

这就是我前面说的“事实失灵”了。

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This is what I meant earlier by "facts failing."

过去我们通常认为,当事实和真相摆在面前时,会促使人们修正自己原来的看法。

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In the past, we generally believed that when facts and truth were presented, they would prompt people to revise their original views.

但现在的情况是因为信息茧房(Information Echo Chamber: 指人们只接触到与自己现有信念相符的信息,导致观点固化)的存在,你可能很难看到事实,又或者看到了认为是污蔑,或者反而让你坚定了原来的想法。

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However, the current situation is that due to the existence of information echo chambers, you might find it difficult to see the facts, or if you do see them, you might consider them slander, or they might even reinforce your original beliefs.

过去这样的事往往只发生在中国,比如六四,大部分中国人要么因为墙的关系看不到,要么看到了也认为是造谣污蔑,最极端则是就算我看到了,但觉得中国政府做得对,就应该杀。

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In the past, such things often only happened in China, like the Tiananmen Square incident, where most Chinese either couldn't see it due to the Great Firewall, or if they did, they considered it slanderous rumor-mongering; the most extreme view was that even if they saw it, they believed the Chinese government was right to act as it did.

但我们都知道,美国明明是个没有墙的国家,怎么也发生这种事呢?

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But we all know that America is a country without a firewall, so how could this happen there?

原因很简单,因为长期的仇恨和撕裂已经让很多人在思想上形成了墙,自我思想刚硬,哪怕事实证据都摆在面前,很多人也拒绝相信。

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The reason is simple: long-term hatred and division have created mental walls for many people, making their self-held beliefs rigid, so even when facts and evidence are presented, many refuse to believe them.

激进主义的兴起:觉醒文化与身份认同

那这种撕裂到底是怎么形成的呢?

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So, how exactly did this division come about?

接下来我们就来聊聊这个。

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Let's discuss that now.

刚开始做这个频道的时候,有读者给我发过一封信,问为什么美国的大学,尤其是名校,包括硅谷和华尔街的一众大佬都这么左,特别是很多富豪明明自己就是资本家,这不矛盾吗?

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When I first started this channel, a reader sent me a letter asking why American universities, especially prestigious ones, including many big names in Silicon Valley and Wall Street, are so left-leaning, particularly when many wealthy individuals are capitalists themselves—isn't that a contradiction?

当时我写过一段回复,这里可以稍微完善一下。

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I wrote a reply at the time, which I can elaborate on a bit here.

简单说,过去这些年,整个西方世界,不只是美国,都经历了一段长达数十年的由激进主义驱动的所谓觉醒化运动(Woke Culture/Movement: 一种强调社会正义和身份政治的激进思潮)。

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Simply put, over the past few decades, the entire Western world, not just the United States, has experienced a decades-long so-called "woke" movement driven by radicalism.

这里我要着重强调一下,绝大多数人一提到觉醒文化,就会本能地认为是左翼,比如“黑命贵”、女权、LGBT等等。

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Here, I want to emphasize that most people instinctively associate woke culture with the left, such as Black Lives Matter, feminism, LGBT rights, and so on.

但其实另一些很难被归类为左翼的思潮,比如伊斯兰原教旨主义(Islamic Fundamentalism: 严格遵循伊斯兰教义,强调回归传统)和民族主义(Nationalism: 强调国家利益和民族认同),广义上来说也是觉醒文化的一部分。

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However, other ideologies that are difficult to categorize as left-wing, such as Islamic fundamentalism and nationalism, are broadly also part of woke culture.

再次强调,激进主义绝不仅仅是极左翼。

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Again, I emphasize that radicalism is by no means exclusive to the far-left.

举个例子,我表弟是很小来到加拿大的,起先从没回过中国。

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For example, my cousin came to Canada when he was very young and initially never returned to China.

但当我们20年没见再次遇到的时候,我发现他有着非常强的民族主义形象。

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But when we met again after 20 years, I found that he had a very strong nationalist identity.

简单来说,他痛恨美国和加拿大政府,认为这两个国家根本上就是邪恶的;认为美加政府软弱无能,不像中国政府,效率又高,经济发展又好。

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Simply put, he hated the American and Canadian governments, believing these two countries were fundamentally evil; he thought the US and Canadian governments were weak and incompetent, unlike the Chinese government, which he saw as highly efficient and economically prosperous.

当我提到中国的一些问题和历史时,他认为那是西方政府的抹黑。

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When I mentioned some of China's problems and history, he considered it a smear campaign by Western governments.

最讽刺的是,他父亲还是曾经的政治犯,六四的亲历者之一。

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Most ironically, his father was a former political prisoner and one of the eyewitnesses to the Tiananmen Square incident.

在我给他讲了我自己亲身经历的很多事以后,他终于不甘心地承认自己对中国可能是过度美化了。

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After I told him many things I had personally experienced, he finally reluctantly admitted that he might have overly idealized China.

但这依然不影响他觉得美国是个邪恶帝国。

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But this still didn't change his view that America was an evil empire.

大体上,他的观念是我上面提到的两种觉醒文化的河流,既左又右,因为在他所接受的大学教育中,这两者在逻辑上是一致的。

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Broadly, his views encompassed both streams of woke culture I mentioned earlier, both left and right, because in the university education he received, these two were logically consistent.

因为盎格鲁-撒克逊白人是殖民压迫者,是魔鬼,所以被压迫的国家、民族、性别、性取向就应该联合起来反抗,推翻这个腐朽的西方资本主义白人父权帝国。

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Because Anglo-Saxon whites are colonial oppressors and devils, oppressed nations, ethnic groups, genders, and sexual orientations should unite to resist and overthrow this decadent Western capitalist white patriarchal empire.

你看,白左觉得美国邪恶,小粉红也觉得美国邪恶,既然大家目标一致,那就愉快地握手吧。

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You see, white leftists think America is evil, and "little pinks" (Chinese nationalists) also think America is evil; since everyone's goal is the same, let's happily shake hands.

我后来思考过他这个思想形成的路径,大概是这样的:就是大学校园里的多元文化(Multiculturalism: 强调包容和尊重不同文化群体)不是强调包容尊重各类少数群体吗?

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I later thought about the path his ideology took to form, and it's probably something like this: isn't multiculturalism in university campuses about emphasizing inclusion and respect for various minority groups?

这本来是个好事,但慢慢地有点矫枉过正了。

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This was originally a good thing, but it gradually became an overcorrection.

比如说,在没有暴力的情况下,一个N代移民对原本的母国没有认同感是很自然的事。

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For example, it's natural for a multi-generational immigrant to not identify with their ancestral homeland, especially in the absence of violence.

但因为那段殖民历史,它会过度鼓励你原有的身份认同和所谓的独特性,避免陷入所谓的文化灭绝。

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But because of that colonial history, it excessively encourages your original identity and so-called uniqueness, to avoid falling into what is termed "cultural genocide."

而我们知道,这种独特性有时候是排斥普世价值(Universal Values: 普遍适用于所有人类社会的价值观)的。

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And we know that this uniqueness can sometimes reject universal values.

而这会导致什么结果呢?

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What does this lead to?

就是少数群体的部落化。

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It leads to the tribalization of minority groups.

设想一下,假设你是个华裔、黑人、穆斯林,或者女性、LGBT,本来大家相处得还挺融洽的。

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Imagine you're Chinese, Black, Muslim, or a woman, or LGBT, and everyone was getting along quite well.

但一直有一群人在你耳边不停地说:“我们老祖宗当年对不起你们啊,应该给你们各种补偿优待啊,如果哪个白人男性跟你矛盾,那一定是种族、性别、性取向歧视,我们帮你一起弄他,反正怎么都是你对。”

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But there's always a group of people constantly whispering in your ear: "Our ancestors wronged you back then; you deserve all sorts of compensation and preferential treatment. If any white man has a conflict with you, it must be racial, gender, or sexual orientation discrimination, and we'll help you take him down—after all, you're always right."

长此以往,你是不是也觉得我和他们确实不一样,所以还是跟我一样的那些小伙伴一起玩吧?

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Over time, wouldn't you also start to feel that you are indeed different from them, and thus prefer to hang out with others who are like you?

于是你就更倾向于在所谓的“自己人”那个群体里寻找认同感,和所谓的主流渐行渐远,甚至还对他们产生了一些敌意。

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Consequently, you become more inclined to seek identity within your "own kind" group, drifting further away from the so-called mainstream, and even developing some hostility towards them.

这种现象我称之为“客客气气的种族性别性取向隔离”(Polite Racial/Gender/Sexual Orientation Segregation: 指社会表面上包容,实则通过过度强调身份差异,导致不同群体间形成隐性隔阂)。

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I call this phenomenon "polite racial, gender, and sexual orientation segregation."

需要说明的是,我表弟本人从未在加拿大被种族歧视过,他所说的压迫完全来自于教育系统和互联网,尤其是TikTokQuora的灌输和想象。

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It's worth noting that my cousin himself has never experienced racial discrimination in Canada; the oppression he speaks of comes entirely from the indoctrination and imagination fostered by the education system and the internet, especially TikTok and Quora.

这和今天中国的一些黄汉(Yellow Han/Han Chauvinists: 指极端汉民族主义者)仇视曾经的满清,其实有异曲同工之妙。

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This is actually quite similar to how some "Yellow Han" nationalists in China today harbor hatred for the former Qing Dynasty.

唯一不同的是,中国社会鼓励你仇视其他人,而欧美社会鼓励你仇恨自己。

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The only difference is that Chinese society encourages you to hate others, while Western societies encourage you to hate yourself.

看完我上面说的这些,你是不是就能理解为什么那么多欧洲年轻人会去参加ISIS(Islamic State of Iraq and Syria: 极端伊斯兰恐怖组织),包括很多高举女权旗号的人会和穆斯林留学生一起支持哈马斯(Hamas: 巴勒斯坦逊尼派伊斯兰主义政治和军事组织)了?

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After reading what I've said above, can you understand why so many young Europeans join ISIS, and why many who champion feminism support Hamas alongside Muslim students?

一部分人就和我表弟一样,属于是被隔离,被推到了所谓“自己人”那边;另一部分人呢,因为不想被人说成种族主义、伊斯兰恐惧症,就表现得格外进步,而选择性地对一些问题,比如伊斯兰文化中压迫女性的问题视而不见。

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Some, like my cousin, are isolated and pushed towards their "own kind"; others, not wanting to be labeled racist or Islamophobic, act exceptionally progressive and selectively turn a blind eye to issues like the oppression of women in Islamic culture.

熊比特理论:资本主义的自我毁灭倾向与知识分子的角色

那造成这种局面的根源是什么呢?

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So, what is the root cause of this situation?

尤其是身处中国的朋友可能会感到费解:中共煽动仇恨,要你恨美国、日本、韩国,恨全世界,这个好理解,为了巩固政权有利可图嘛。

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Friends in China, in particular, might find it puzzling: the CCP incites hatred, wanting you to hate America, Japan, Korea, and the whole world—that's understandable, it's profitable for consolidating power.

那这帮美国人、欧洲人憋着劲恨自己是图啥呢?

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But what do these Americans and Europeans gain by hating themselves? Are they sick?

有病吗?

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Are they sick?

这里就要引入前奥地利财政部长、政治经济学家熊比特(Joseph Schumpeter: 奥地利经济学家,提出“创造性破坏”理论)的一个理论了。

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Here, we need to introduce a theory by Joseph Schumpeter, the former Austrian Minister of Finance and political economist.

关于这位“熊哥”最广为人知的,应该是那个解释企业利润来源的创造性破坏(Creative Destruction: 熊比特提出的经济创新理论,指旧的经济结构不断被新的创新所取代)理论,这个基本吊打马克思的剩余价值论(Theory of Surplus Value: 马克思主义经济学概念,指工人劳动创造的超过其工资的价值)。

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What's most widely known about "Brother Bear" (Schumpeter) is probably his theory of creative destruction, which explains the source of corporate profits and essentially trumps Marx's theory of surplus value.

但他有另外一个似乎和马克思不谋而合的理论,那就是资本主义的自我毁灭倾向(Self-Destruction Tendency of Capitalism: 熊比特认为资本主义的成功会滋生批判其自身的知识分子群体)。

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However, he has another theory that seems to align with Marx's, which is the self-destruction tendency of capitalism.

简单说一下这个理论吧,大概是说资本主义创造了前所未有的文明和繁荣,但同时也会孕育自己的掘墓人——知识分子群体(Intellectual Class: 具有批判性思维和文化影响力的人群)。

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Let me briefly explain this theory: it roughly states that capitalism creates unprecedented civilization and prosperity, but at the same time, it also nurtures its own gravediggers—the intellectual class.

对,你没听错,老马说资本主义的掘墓人是工人,知识分子都是软弱的小资。

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Yes, you heard that right, old Marx said the gravediggers of capitalism are the workers, and intellectuals are weak petty bourgeois.

而在“熊哥”这正好相反,觉得公知才是拿铲子的那个人。

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But with "Brother Bear," it's the opposite; he believes that public intellectuals are the ones holding the shovels.

要我说,有啥好争呢?

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If you ask me, what's there to argue about?

反正都是掘墓,多个人手轮班倒不也挺好吗?

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Anyway, it's all about digging graves, so having more hands taking turns isn't bad, is it?

怎么回事?

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What's going on?

因为他们不会挖洞?

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Because they can't dig holes?

怎么乱哈拉?

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Why are you talking nonsense?

谁不会挖洞?

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Who can't dig holes?

那“熊哥”的这个理论有道理吗?

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So, is "Brother Bear's" theory valid?

有,而且还很有。

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Yes, and very much so.

之前我提过像加拿大大学校园简直是各类激进主义的温床,共产主义、极端女权、LGBT、环保主义小组招新的教室抽屉里都是宣传册。

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I've mentioned before that Canadian university campuses are practically hotbeds for various radical ideologies; classrooms and drawers are filled with brochures for communist, extreme feminist, LGBT, and environmentalist groups recruiting new members.

注意,这里并不是说所谓的左倾或者强调宗教传统就是激进主义。

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Note that this doesn't mean being left-leaning or emphasizing religious traditions is radicalism.

凡事过犹不及,一般都是过了某个线,强调暴力解决问题了,才算是激进。

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Everything in excess is bad; radicalism generally only applies when a certain line is crossed, and violence is emphasized as a solution.

比如你强调保护环境是很好的,但强调到跑去卢浮宫给蒙娜丽莎泼脏水,这就过了。

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For example, emphasizing environmental protection is good, but going so far as to throw soup on the Mona Lisa at the Louvre is excessive.

那为什么这些事会集中发生在大学和学术圈呢?

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So why do these things tend to happen in universities and academic circles?

按“熊哥”的理论,首先是因为大学里的知识分子群体,比如教授们,本身处在一个特殊的生态位。

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According to "Brother Bear's" theory, first, it's because the intellectual class in universities, such as professors, occupies a unique ecological niche.

说大白话就是:扎堆、有文化、有时间,但是没钱没权。

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To put it plainly: they gather together, are cultured, have time, but lack money and power.

有文化意味着什么?

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What does being cultured mean?

意味着他们能看到很多人看不到的一些社会问题。

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It means they can see social problems that many others cannot.

扎堆又有时间意味着什么?

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What does gathering together and having time mean?

意味着他们可以搞学术、写论文、讨论、批判、传播自己的观点。

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It means they can engage in academia, write papers, discuss, critique, and disseminate their views.

而没钱没权意味着什么?

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And what does lacking money and power mean?

意味着他们没有深度切入到资本主义这台巨大的生产机器之中,没有实际参与生产经营,不必考虑利润和公司生存问题,不掌握实际权利和资源。

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It means they are not deeply integrated into the enormous production machine of capitalism, do not actively participate in production and management, do not need to consider profit and corporate survival issues, and do not control actual power and resources.

公司上市了他们发不了财,公司倒闭了他们也无感。

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They don't get rich when companies go public, and they feel nothing when companies go bankrupt.

一句话,你没有既得利益在里面。

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In short, you have no vested interest in it.

而这种貌似尊贵实则是边缘坎坷的矛盾身份,让他们天然倾向于对既有秩序产生怀疑和反叛。

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This seemingly esteemed yet actually marginalized and challenging contradictory identity naturally inclines them to question and rebel against the existing order.

注意,不仅教授如此,学生们也很多是这样,因为哪怕是富二代们,在自己的精英父母面前,其实也属于权力边缘的角色,都有天然批评夺权的冲动。

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Note that this isn't just true for professors; many students are also like this, because even wealthy second-generations, in the presence of their elite parents, are actually marginalized in terms of power and have a natural impulse to criticize and seize power.

其次是这个群体很容易走极端,说好听点叫理想主义。

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Secondly, this group tends to go to extremes; to put it nicely, they are idealistic.

前面说了,教授和学生群体是不带操心实务的,这就意味着他们中的很多人缺少工程师思维(Engineer's Mindset: 强调实用、权衡和解决问题的思维方式),不懂妥协。

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As mentioned earlier, professors and students generally don't concern themselves with practical matters, which means many of them lack an engineer's mindset and don't understand compromise.

比如你设计一栋大厦,如果是工程师思维,肯定会考虑代价,搞平衡,在艺术性和实用性之间,在外部美观和内部空间之间做取舍。

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For example, if you're designing a building with an engineer's mindset, you would definitely consider the costs, strike a balance, and make trade-offs between artistic appeal and practicality, and between external aesthetics and internal space.

既要考虑设计理念上的超前,也要兼顾成本和预算。

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You would consider both cutting-edge design concepts and also account for costs and budget.

这种思维是有益的,因为在现代民主国家,你无论从政还是从商,最重要的事就是妥协,就是要考虑和计算代价。

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This mindset is beneficial because in modern democratic countries, whether you're in politics or business, the most important thing is compromise—it's about considering and calculating costs.

但如果是一个没有工程思维的所谓理想主义的人会怎么做呢?

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But what would a so-called idealist without an engineering mindset do?

不惜一切代价,因为你不用考虑代价的事,干就完了。

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They would do it at all costs, because if you don't have to consider the cost, you just do it.

而不惜一切代价恰恰就是激进主义的思维方式,也就是我看到问题了,也有自己的目标,但绝不会妥协,希望毕其功于一役,谁挡我的路谁就必须要铲除。

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And "at all costs" is precisely the mindset of radicalism: I see a problem, I have my goal, but I will never compromise, hoping to achieve everything in one go, and whoever stands in my way must be eliminated.

我经常说,理想主义不是个好词,就是这个意思。

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I often say that idealism isn't a good word, and this is what I mean.

第三点是容易同情心泛滥,并从中获得道德上的优越感。

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The third point is the tendency for empathy to overflow, leading to a sense of moral superiority.

人性的特点是这样:物资充裕就容易产生同情心,物资匮乏就会弱肉强食,缺乏同情心。

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Human nature is such that abundance tends to foster empathy, while scarcity leads to a dog-eat-dog mentality and a lack of compassion.

有句话叫“穷生兼济,富长良性”,就是这个意思。

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There's a saying, "Poverty breeds self-interest, wealth fosters benevolence," which means exactly this.

你要是真有钱,你也可能会捐钱,或者给街边的乞丐好几百美金。

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If you were truly wealthy, you might also donate money or give a homeless person on the street hundreds of dollars.

但要是赶上三年大饥荒,你们全家老小加起来就半块饼,路边有人要饿死了,你会同情他分他一半吗?

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But if you were in the midst of a three-year famine, and your entire family only had half a biscuit, and someone on the roadside was starving to death, would you sympathize and share half with them?

大概率不会。

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Most likely not.

而大学校园是极容易滋生同情心的地方,注意我用的是“滋生”这个词,因为这种同情心往往是想象出来、不真实的泛滥的。

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And university campuses are places where empathy is extremely prone to "breeding"—note that I use the word "breeding" because this empathy is often imagined, an unreal overflow.

比如你可以把同情心给到遥远的中东那些素未谋面的难民,呼吁把他们都接过来,甚至为之流泪,因为不用你直接掏腰包嘛。

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For instance, you can extend your sympathy to unknown refugees in the distant Middle East, call for them all to be brought over, and even shed tears for them, because it doesn't require you to directly open your wallet.

但转过来可能室友找你借500美元你都不借。

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But then, your roommate might ask to borrow $500, and you wouldn't lend it.

为什么呢?

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Why?

因为表现出同情心能够满足自己在道德上的优越感,从而弥补在权力架构中的失序。

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Because showing empathy can satisfy a sense of moral superiority, thereby compensating for a perceived disorder in the power structure.

至于同情心背后的成本,上面提过了,你是不用考虑成本和具体实现的。

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As for the costs behind empathy, as mentioned above, you don't need to consider the costs or practical implementation.

以上三点叠加,就决定这个群体必然是批判资本主义系统的。

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The superposition of these three points determines that this group will inevitably criticize the capitalist system.

因为代表弱者批判强者和所谓的精英,是最容易安全地抢占道德高地的。

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Because criticizing the strong and the so-called elite on behalf of the weak is the easiest and safest way to seize the moral high ground.

但注意啊,这种事只可能发生在相对自由的资本主义世界,在墙内那种地方,两铁拳就给你砸趴下了。

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But note, this kind of thing can only happen in a relatively free capitalist world; in places like China, two iron fists would crush you.

而这种批判一旦走得太远,就很容易演变成激进主义,并通过扎堆的大学校园和社交媒体迅速传播开,因为学生们本来就活跃,喜欢发声嘛。

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And once this criticism goes too far, it can easily evolve into radicalism and spread rapidly through clustered university campuses and social media, because students are naturally active and like to voice their opinions.

听了上面这段,我知道肯定很多自我定位为左派的朋友已经忍不住要骂街了。

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After hearing the above, I know many friends who identify as leftists are probably itching to curse.

我知道你很急,但你先别急。

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I know you're anxious, but please don't be.

因为激进主义、同情心、道德优越感从来就不是大众理解的左派的专利,它的本质是一种“受压迫叙事”。

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Because radicalism, empathy, and moral superiority have never been the exclusive domain of the left as commonly understood; their essence is a "narrative of oppression."

什么意思呢?

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What does that mean?

就是任何类型的激进主义,甭管极左还是极右,本质上都是告诉你:“我们这个群体一直在受压迫,现在我们受够了,要觉醒革命起来,弄死那些骑在人头上拉屎的既得利益群体。

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It means that any type of radicalism, whether far-left or far-right, essentially tells you: "Our group has been oppressed, and now we've had enough; we must awaken, revolt, and eliminate those vested interest groups who exploit others.

为此,我们一定要团结全世界,我们这个群体是一家,我们这个群体不打我们这个群体,我们这个群体帮助我们这个群体。”

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To achieve this, we must unite the whole world; our group is one family; our group does not fight our group; our group helps our group."

而为了实现这个伟大目标,就必须以集体利益为重,暂时牺牲一些自由和个人权利,不利于团结的话不要说。

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And to achieve this great goal, collective interests must take precedence, temporarily sacrificing some freedoms and individual rights, and no words that hinder unity should be spoken.

在这个过程中,他们会极力将对方描绘成死不足惜的恶魔,不断强化这种敌对关系,直到群体内里形成肌肉记忆,不再有耐心去反思。

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In this process, they will go to great lengths to portray the opposition as despicable devils, constantly reinforcing this adversarial relationship until a muscle memory forms within the group, and there is no longer any patience for self-reflection.

至于谁是我们这个群体,谁是那个既得利益群体,您自个儿玩心填空都填一遍,就能将激进主义一网打尽了。

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As for who belongs to "our group" and who belongs to "that vested interest group," if you fill in the blanks yourself, you'll be able to capture all forms of radicalism.

需要特意指出的是,受压迫叙事本身未必是错的,因为除了共产主义这种纯忽悠瞎编出来的理论,其他大部分的压迫,比如种族、性别、性取向等等,确实存在。

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It's important to specifically point out that the narrative of oppression itself isn't necessarily wrong, because apart from communism, which is a purely deceptive and fabricated theory, most other forms of oppression, such as those based on race, gender, and sexual orientation, genuinely exist.

但激进与否,主要在于你主张改变的方式是改良,还是革命;是坐下来谈,缓和矛盾,还是无限夸大渲染仇恨,主张剥夺他人的自由、利益甚至生命权。

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However, whether it's radical or not primarily depends on whether the method of change you advocate is reform or revolution; whether it's sitting down to talk and de-escalate conflicts, or endlessly exaggerating and inciting hatred, advocating for the deprivation of others' freedom, interests, or even right to life.

除了熊比特,还有很多学者都表达过类似的观点。

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Besides Schumpeter, many other scholars have expressed similar views.

比如卡尔·曼海姆(Karl Mannheim: 匈牙利社会学家,提出“无地位的知识分子”概念)说的,有利于既有利益集团之外的无地位的知识分子最容易产生乌托邦思潮(Utopian Ideology: 对理想社会不切实际的构想)。

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For example, Karl Mannheim stated that unattached intellectuals, those outside existing interest groups, are most prone to utopian ideologies.

托克维尔(Alexis de Tocqueville: 法国政治思想家,著有《论美国的民主》)也说过,最激烈的革命诉求往往都不来自于被压迫最厉害的社会底层,而来自于那些处于上升期、接触到更多理念却对现实不满的学生和知识分子阶层。

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Alexis de Tocqueville also said that the most fervent revolutionary demands often do not come from the most oppressed social strata but from students and intellectuals who are on the rise, exposed to more ideas, yet dissatisfied with reality.

汉娜·阿伦特(Hannah Arendt: 德裔美籍政治理论家)对这一点讲得最透,她在**《极权主义的起源》**(The Origins of Totalitarianism: 阿伦特关于极权主义形成和运作的经典著作)一书中提到,知识分子和青年人往往成为极权主义运动的第一批信徒,因为他们在这种运动里找到了意义和归属感。

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Hannah Arendt explained this most thoroughly; in her book "The Origins of Totalitarianism," she noted that intellectuals and young people often become the first adherents of totalitarian movements because they find meaning and a sense of belonging in such movements.

回想一下90年前投奔延安(Yan'an: 中国共产党在革命时期的根据地)的那批年轻人,也包括更早的陈独秀(Chen Duxiu: 中国共产党早期领导人)、李大钊(Li Dazhao: 中国共产党早期领导人)和鲁迅(Lu Xun: 中国现代文学家),是不是都符合上面这个特征?

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Thinking back to the young people who flocked to Yan'an 90 years ago, including earlier figures like Chen Duxiu, Li Dazhao, and Lu Xun, don't they all fit this description?

有人可能要反驳说,就算你说的对,那这些人离开学校工作了,甚至有些人发财成为首富了,为什么还那么激进不务实呢?

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Some might argue that even if what you say is true, why do these people remain so radical and impractical after leaving school, or even after becoming wealthy and successful?

因为你年轻时在激进主义环境下形成了政治倾向,如果一辈子顺顺利利,其实是很难改的,除非遇到重大事件才可能会去反思。

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Because if you form political tendencies in a radical environment when you're young, it's actually very difficult to change them if your life goes smoothly, unless you encounter a major event that prompts reflection.

不信你回想一下,早期奔赴延安的那批年轻人们,很多一开始也是共产主义战士吧?

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If you don't believe me, think back to the young people who went to Yan'an in the early days—many of them were communist fighters at first, weren't they?

到后来运动一场接一场,自己和身边的亲朋好友都挨整了,才开始反思,慢慢转成右派的,最典型的不就是李锐(Li Rui: 中共元老,后成为自由派改革者)吗?

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It was only after one political campaign after another, when they and their friends and family were persecuted, that they began to reflect and gradually shifted to the right—wasn't Li Rui the most typical example?

美国社会撕裂的深层原因与社交媒体的催化作用

说回美国,正是因为美国承平日久,过了太久的好日子,才给了大学这个激进主义温床最好的光照、湿度和养分,并让它一代代渗透和沉淀,侵蚀了美国的立国之本。

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Returning to the United States, it is precisely because America has enjoyed a long period of peace and prosperity that it provided the ideal conditions of light, humidity, and nutrients for universities to become hotbeds of radicalism, allowing it to permeate and solidify through generations, eroding the very foundations of the United States.

此前很多人都给我留言说:“你不懂真正的左是什么样,右是什么样,又什么大政府、小政府、高福利还是低福利,加税还是减税。”

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Many people have previously left comments for me saying, "You don't understand what true left or right is, what big government or small government is, high welfare or low welfare, tax increases or tax cuts."

但实际情况是,今天美国的撕裂程度早已经严重到不争这些了,或者说不是主要争这些了。

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But the reality is that the level of division in America today has become so severe that these issues are no longer the main points of contention, or at least not primarily.

因为这些还是政策层面、协商思维,你能聊这些说明还在讨价还价聊利益。

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Because these are still policy-level, negotiation-oriented issues; if you can discuss them, it means you're still bargaining over interests.

而今天美国的对立更像是在争国本,也就是争道德观,争对生活方式的定义权。

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However, today's American polarization is more like a struggle over fundamental national values—a battle over moral views and the right to define lifestyles.

双方对立已经从对手变成了敌人。

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The opposition between the two sides has escalated from rivals to enemies.

不信你看那些最核心的议题:堕胎权(Abortion Rights: 女性选择终止妊娠的合法权利)、拥枪权(Gun Rights: 公民持有枪支的权利)、儿童在学校里能不能自己选择变性,这里面都不是钱的事。

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If you don't believe me, look at the most core issues: abortion rights, gun rights, whether children in schools can choose to transition—these are not about money.

而社交媒体的出现,更成了这种撕裂的催化剂。

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The emergence of social media has further acted as a catalyst for this division.

就像我开头说的那样,“一个美国,各自表述”,大家物理上生活在同一个国家,精神却去了平行的两个世界。

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As I said at the beginning, "one America, different narratives"—people physically live in the same country, but their minds inhabit two parallel worlds.

同一个查理·柯克,有人看他是圣人,有人觉得他是人渣。

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For the same Charlie Kirk, some see him as a saint, while others consider him scum.

同一个奥巴马(Barack Obama: 美国前总统),有人视他为人生偶像,有人觉得他是搞乱美国的幕后总策划。

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For the same Barack Obama, some view him as a life idol, while others believe he is the mastermind behind America's chaos.

并且大家都觉得自己的想法天经地义,所有人都是这么想的,你不这么认为你一定是恐龙吧?

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And everyone believes their own ideas are self-evident, that everyone thinks this way, and if you don't, you must be a dinosaur, right?

外部威胁:中国因素对美国内部共识的影响

除了社交媒体,这种撕裂还有一个重要的推动力量,就是作为外部威胁的中国。

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Besides social media, another significant driving force behind this division is China, acting as an external threat.

有人可能会好奇,说冷战时期美苏关系好像更紧张吧?

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Some might wonder, wasn't the US-Soviet relationship during the Cold War even more tense?

那为什么苏联没有导致美国的分裂,反而让美国内部形成了更多共识呢?

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So why didn't the Soviet Union lead to America's division, but instead fostered more internal consensus?

因为,曾经的美苏关系和今天的美中关系已经是完全不同的两种生态。

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Because the past US-Soviet relationship and today's US-China relationship are two entirely different ecosystems.

冷战时期的美国和苏联几乎没什么经济往来,对抗很纯粹,军事对抗、意识形态对抗,叙事简单粗暴:他们是共产主义,我们是自由世界,没有多少模糊空间。

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During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union had almost no economic interaction; the confrontation was pure: military confrontation, ideological confrontation, with a simple and crude narrative—they were communism, we were the free world, leaving little room for ambiguity.

可今天的中国不一样,它已经是美国第二大贸易伙伴,供应链的核心。

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But today's China is different; it's already America's second-largest trading partner and a core part of the supply chain.

你去沃尔玛买的便宜日用品,你的iPhone,甚至你在上海迪士尼背后,都有中国的影子。

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The cheap daily necessities you buy at Walmart, your iPhone, and even Shanghai Disneyland all have China's shadow behind them.

你喊对华脱钩的时候,制造业工人们可能拍手叫好,但加州的科技公司、华尔街的资本家、消费者都会皱眉头。

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When you call for decoupling from China, manufacturing workers might cheer, but California tech companies, Wall Street capitalists, and consumers will frown.

冷战时期的团结撕裂成了今天的“谁来为脱钩代价买单”。

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The unity of the Cold War era has fractured into today's question of "who will pay the price for decoupling."

同时,意识形态上的差异似乎也没那么界限分明了。

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At the same time, ideological differences also seem less clearly defined.

中共明面上放弃了苏式的纯计划经济,这对很多美国人而言很具有迷惑性。

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The CCP has ostensibly abandoned the Soviet-style pure planned economy, which is very confusing for many Americans.

同时,中共攻击美国的时候也不再唠共产主义那套嗑了,而是大谈全球化、美国霸权、反殖民、反种族歧视、多元化,打身份政治牌,这一套套的你们美国国内一大半人都信呢。

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At the same time, when the CCP attacks the United States, it no longer harps on communist rhetoric but instead talks extensively about globalization, American hegemony, anti-colonialism, anti-racism, and diversity, playing the identity politics card—a whole set of arguments that more than half of Americans actually believe.

这种情况下,你美国政府该怎么对对面那个独裁流氓政权强硬呢?

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In this situation, how can your American government be tough on that authoritarian rogue regime across the way?

你指责习近平(Xi Jinping: 中华人民共和国最高领导人),一帮华裔上街说你种族歧视。

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If you criticize Xi Jinping, a group of Chinese Americans will take to the streets, accusing you of racism.

你说句大实话,病毒来自武汉,一帮极右翼上街打亚裔面孔,你变成种族主义者了。

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If you state the plain truth that the virus came from Wuhan, a group of far-right extremists will take to the streets to attack Asian faces, and you'll be labeled a racist.

结果就是外部威胁没有凝结共识,反而转化成内部问题,先掐起来了。

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The result is that external threats haven't forged consensus; instead, they've transformed into internal problems, leading to infighting.

结论:美国撕裂的弥合与中美关系的未来展望

节目的最后,我想谈谈对于美国以及未来中美关系走向的一些看法。

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At the end of the program, I'd like to share some thoughts on the United States and the future direction of US-China relations.

在可预见的未来,我不觉得美国这种撕裂是可以自然弥合的,因为似乎没有谁能想到解决方案。

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In the foreseeable future, I don't believe this division in America can naturally heal, as no one seems to have a solution.

我唯一能想到的建议,就是建议所有的社交媒体新闻推送都能调整目前的推荐算法。

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The only suggestion I can think of is to recommend that all social media news feeds adjust their current recommendation algorithms.

比如现在的算法是分析你过去的行为,比如点赞、停留时长和转发记录,判断你的喜好,然后投喂你感兴趣的。

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For example, current algorithms analyze your past behavior, such as likes, time spent, and sharing history, to determine your preferences and then feed you content you're interested in.

你给司马南(Sima Nan: 中国知名评论员,以民族主义言论著称)点赞了,那就接着推送张维为(Zhang Weiwei: 中国学者,以“中国模式”论著称)、推送吴京(Wu Jing: 中国演员兼导演,以民族主义电影闻名),731(Unit 731: 二战时期日本细菌战部队),93阅兵(9/3 Military Parade: 中国纪念抗日战争胜利的阅兵式),和学生们升国旗热泪盈眶。

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If you liked Sima Nan, then it continues to push Zhang Weiwei, Wu Jing, Unit 731, the 9/3 Military Parade, and students with tears in their eyes raising the national flag.

久而久之,你可能原来只是个半残,现在直接U型锁(U-lock: 指2012年反日游行中,一名示威者用U型锁攻击日系车主,象征极端民族主义)了。

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Over time, you might have started out only half-crippled, but now you've become a full-blown U-lock nationalist.

那更好的算法是什么呢?

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So what would be a better algorithm?

是比如你看了个“夹头博主”的所谓军事新闻,说俄军吊打北约,消灭了6个旅,把老美的F-35(F-35: 美国洛克希德·马丁公司生产的第五代战斗机)打下了一堆,那紧接着就给你推一条完全相反的辟谣。

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For example, if you watched a so-called military news report from a "head-clamping blogger" claiming that the Russian army crushed NATO, annihilated six brigades, and shot down a bunch of American F-35s, then it would immediately push a completely opposite debunking.

如果你每次都能听到不同声音,谁真谁假你自然会有自己的判断。

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If you could hear different voices every time, you would naturally form your own judgment about what's true and what's false.

接下来是中美关系,我的看法是中美之间的战争是几乎一定会爆发的,唯一不确定的就是何时从哪里开始。

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Next is US-China relations; my view is that a war between the US and China is almost certain to break out, with the only uncertainties being when and where it will begin.

之前总有墙内的朋友留言怼我说:“你总说改良(Reform: 渐进式变革),不主张革命(Revolution: 彻底推翻现有体制),面对中共这种流氓政权怎么改良?

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Previously, friends from within the Great Firewall would often comment, challenging me: "You always talk about reform and don't advocate revolution; how can you reform a rogue regime like the CCP?

只有鱼死网破(Fish dies, net breaks: 指双方同归于尽,两败俱伤)一条路啊。”

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There's only one path: mutually assured destruction."

我想说,其实还有第三条路。

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I want to say, there is actually a third way.

因为就像你们说的,改良是对体面人的,对流氓没用。

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Because, as you say, reform is for decent people; it's useless against thugs.

但革命也是给啃得动的骨头,很难啃,啃了还得崩牙的,就别上去堵枪眼了。

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But revolution is also for bones that can be chewed; if it's too tough and might break your teeth, don't rush in to block the bullet hole.

一是啃不下来,二是就算给你啃下来了,如果还是以激进主义的方式,大概率还是中共精神上借尸还魂(Borrow a corpse to resurrect the soul: 指旧事物以新形式出现,或旧思想重新抬头),鬼打墙(Ghost hitting a wall: 比喻陷入困境或循环,无法突破)。

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First, you can't chew it off; second, even if you manage to chew it off, if it's done in a radical way, it's highly likely that the CCP's spirit will be resurrected in a new form, stuck in a loop.

中国未来最佳的民主路径,其实就是日本模式。

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China's best path to democracy in the future is actually the Japan model.

战败以后,把共产和纳粹残留物清洗干净,整个移植宪政模式,有个两代人,等10后军国主义化的这代人老了,余毒轻了,也就愈合了。

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After defeat, cleanse away the communist and Nazi remnants, transplant the entire constitutional model, wait for two generations, and by the time the post-2010 militarized generation grows old and the lingering toxins diminish, it will heal.

这件事对美国也未必一定是坏事,毕竟珍珠港(Pearl Harbor: 二战期间日本偷袭的美国海军基地)不被炸,古巴导弹危机(Cuban Missile Crisis: 1962年美苏之间关于古巴导弹部署的政治对抗)没立个导弹在那,不少美国人也还是一脑袋江湖。

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This might not necessarily be a bad thing for the United States either; after all, if Pearl Harbor hadn't been bombed and there hadn't been missiles in Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis, many Americans would still be living in a state of naive ignorance.

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关键字: free information radicalism-in-academia societal us-china-relations