地缘博弈新风暴:霍尔木兹海峡收费计划与日本“间谍乐园”的终结 New York Times Podcasts 2026-07-14

海峡收费争议:重构公海平衡

在美伊关系持续恶化、前期达成的停火协议彻底破裂的背景下,美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)提出了一项具有颠覆性的外交新计划,试图彻底打破中东地区现有的地缘政治博弈规则。特朗普在福克斯新闻的采访中明确表示,美国将对通过霍尔木兹海峡的商船征收霍尔木兹海峡收费(Strait of Hormuz Tolls: 特朗普提出的对通过霍尔木兹海峡的商船收取的安全护航费用),以此作为美军护航的资金来源。然而,这一交易型外交决策引发了美国政府内部的政策倒灌,国务卿马可·卢比奥(Marco Rubio)曾多次公开发表声明,强调任何国家都无权在国际水域强行收取通行保护费。在建立这种政策心理防线后,美伊两国的具体博弈技巧和军事摩擦也随之迅速升级。由于伊朗此前对多艘商船进行开枪警告,美国也以定点军事打击作为回应,特朗普政府目前已正式向国会致信宣布战争状态重启,并重新启动了对伊朗的海上封锁(Naval Blockade: 部署海军力量拦截、控制或阻止特定海域航运流动的军事手段)。特朗普在电台主持人休·休伊特(Hugh Hewitt)的采访中更直接威胁要在夜间和次日对伊朗实施更严厉的打击。面对这种紧绷的局势,白宫记者大卫·桑格(David Sanger)指出,政府目前重操旧业的强硬路线能否比第一轮对抗更有效仍是个未知数。受此局势影响,全球金融市场出现剧烈震荡,尽管分析师对海峡收费的实际落地可能性持怀疑态度,但国际原油价格暴涨、股市普跌的负面系统反馈已然显现。

Original English

when it comes to Iran. It looks like they're back at their business trying to take over the straight. What's your response? Well, we're taking over the straight. They have nothing. They've got nothing. President Trump laid out a drastic new plan yesterday as the US and Iran effectively returned to war. The fragile ceasefire between them collapsing. In an interview on Fox News, Trump said the US will charge fees to protect ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. Now we're going to guard it. We're going to get paid for guarding it. A lot of money. The decision flies in the face of his administration's own stance on the issue when Iran threatened the same thing. Secretary of State Marco Rubio came out repeatedly to say no country is allowed to impose fees in international waters. Trump's announcement is a new escalation between the US and Iran. They signed a preliminary peace deal last month, but ultimately disagreements over who controls the strait doomed it with Iran firing on commercial ships and the US responding with its own strikes on Iran. The tit for tat attacks have ramped up in the last few days and the Trump administration has now formally sent a letter to Congress stating that the war has resumed. Trump has ordered the US naval blockade on Iran back in place. And in an interview with radio host Hugh Hewitt, he threatened the country with more strikes. We're going to hit them very hard tonight and uh we're going to hit them hard tomorrow and there's not a damn thing they can do about it. They have nothing. They have nothing going other than they they I think we're in the phase of the war where we're trying again things that didn't work the first time. But the administration has not made an argument to us yet that this is going to be any more effective the second time than it was the first. White House correspondent David Sanger has more about what this new phase of the war could mean on today's episode of the Daily. Meanwhile, while many analysts are skeptical that Trump's plan to charge fees for ships passing through the straight will actually come to fruition, oil prices surged and stocks fell after news broke about the tolls and the return of the blockade.

执法豁免争议:透视联邦暴力

在美国本土,移民执法部门接连发生的致命枪击事件正将联邦机构与地方司法的内部张力推向顶点。在缅因州波特兰南部的比德福德市,一名美国移民与海关执法局(Immigration and Customs Enforcement: 负责美国边境管控及非正常移民驱逐的联邦机构,简称 ICE)探员开枪击毙了一名26岁的哥伦比亚男子,引发了大批抗议者走上街头声讨司法不公。美国国土安全部虽然声称该男子在试图逃逸时将车辆“武器化”并撞向执法人员,但地方官员和移民权益组织对这一说法表示严重质疑。这已经是近期发生的第二起涉及移民局探员对驾驶员开枪的案件,第一起发生在美国休斯敦。民主党众议员西尔维娅·加西亚(Sylvia Garcia)根据目击者证言,公开反驳了联邦政府的调查陈述:目击者指出,执法探员当时开着未标识的运动型多用途汽车(SUV: 具备越野能力和多功能用途的乘用车车辆)进行围追堵截,且在未表明身份的情况下,直接向受害者驾驶的货车副驾驶窗口开枪。由于执法探员没有佩戴随身摄像机,且移民局未能提供任何实质证据,这使得地方机构的联合调查陷入了漫长的瓶颈期。与此同时,在明尼苏达州阿波利斯市,经过长达数月的抵制与拉锯,美国司法部终于向当地检察官移交了三起致命枪击案的关键物证,其中包括受害者 Renee Good 被击毙时所驾驶的车辆细节,以及针对 Alex Prey 致命枪击案的执法仪录像。尽管在宪法框架下,联邦执法人员在地方起诉中享有广泛的宪法豁免权(Constitutional Immunity: 宪法赋予联邦官员在履行职责时免受州级司法起诉的特权保护机制),但明尼苏达州司法官员明确强调该保护并非绝对,并已对涉案探员提起诉讼,这也释放出地方司法开始反向制衡联邦执法暴力的信号。

Original English

Now, three updates on a series of deadly shootings by immigration agents. First in Maine. Protesters spilled into the streets yesterday after an ICE agent shot and killed a man who immigrants rights groups have identified as a 26-year-old from Columbia. Justice. The shooting happened early Monday morning in the city of Bifford, just south of Portland. According to the Department of Homeland Security, agents had tried to stop a car leaving an address that they've been monitoring. DHS said the driver then tried to get away and quote weaponized his vehicle toward law enforcement. But some state and local officials say they want more details about what happened. The shooting in Maine was the second in a week involving immigration agents firing on a driver. It's just frankly just disgusting. I mean, their story is just almost like it was a different incident that happened. The first was in Houston, where Representative Sylvia Garcia, a Democrat, is disputing federal authorities version of events after she spoke with two witnesses. The men who were in the vehicle, say ICE agents did not identify themselves after chasing down their van in unmarked SUVs. They say that after the van came to a stop, an agent fired a single shot through the front passenger window, killing the driver. ICE has said that the driver had tried to run over an officer, but has presented no evidence to back up its claims. The agents were not wearing body cameras. And last update from Minneapolis, I want to thank our federal partners for their willingness to consider changing course to share evidence and promote public trust. A county prosecutor announced yesterday that after months of resistance, the Justice Department has shared evidence related to three shootings by immigration agents there. She said that included the vehicle Renee Good was driving when she was killed by a federal agent and body cam footage from the fatal shooting of Alex Prey. The shootings took place during the Trump administration's sweeping immigration crackdown in Minnesota at the beginning of the year. Since then, state and local officials have said their investigations into what happened have been stymied by a lack of cooperation from the federal government. It's refused to provide even basic information like the names of the agents who opened fire. While federal officials have broad immunity from state prosecution under the constitution, Minnesota officials have said those protections are not absolute and have already brought some charges against officers for their conduct during the crackdown.

秘密采购网络:重组情报防线

随着俄乌冲突进入长期消耗阶段,俄罗斯情报机构对日本的渗透和暗中采购活动,正在彻底摧毁日本长期以来的“安全神话”。据《纽约时报》记者亚当·高德曼(Adam Goldman)联合团队的最新调查披露,自2022年西方多国驱逐了数以百计的俄罗斯情报人员后,数十名被驱逐的特工转战日本,利用日本战后体制的安全防务漏洞,建立起一条源源不断输送军工关键技术的地下采购链。这些间谍伪装成外交官或普通商业人士,其核心任务是采购或盗窃用于导弹和无人机制造的微芯片(Microchips: 用于武器制造和高科技设备的半导体集成电路芯片)和信号发射器。乌克兰官方的一项评估数据显示,俄军战场坠毁的导弹与无人机中,高达90%含有日本生产的技术组件。经多方证实,这起走私网络的核心操盘手是直属于俄罗斯军情总局第20局(20th Directorate of the GRU: 俄罗斯联邦武装力量总参谋部情报总局专职海外高科技走私与情报搜集的秘密分支部门)的特工。该机构在东京商业中心租用写字楼,其负责人的公开社会掩护身份为俄罗斯国家航空,即俄罗斯航空(Aeroflot: 俄罗斯联邦国家载旗航空公司)的在日员工。尽管乌克兰方面此前多次向日本政府递交了相关核心证据,但受限于战后和平宪法对安全情报机构职能的严苛限制,日本政府在反制外国间谍活动上一直显得行动迟缓,日本也因此饱受“间谍乐园(Spy Paradise: 因法律限制或监管宽松而成为外国间谍活动避风港的国家或地区)”的负面声誉。面对来自俄罗斯、中国以及朝鲜日益严峻的周边地缘安全威胁,日本朝野的防务心态正在发生根本性转变,目前正着手自20世纪40年代以来首次建立一个中央情报机构(Centralized Intelligence Agency: 国家层面的集中式情报收集与反间谍国家安全机构),以求在系统层面上彻底封堵高科技流失的漏洞。

Original English

A new investigation from the Times has found that over the past few years, a wave of Russian spies has flooded into Japan. Back in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, a lot of Western countries expelled hundreds of Russian intelligence agents. Since then, dozens of those banished spies have turned up in Japan, where they've become a crucial part of Russia's war effort, buying or stealing microchips, transmitters, and other technology that can be used to make weapons. Now, according to one Ukrainian estimate, 90% of Russian missiles and drones contain Japanese components. My colleagues and I looked at shipping records. We looked at documents. When we started interviewing people about this, we we heard about this secretive organization called the 20th Directorate within Russian military intelligence, the GRU, with an undercover operative in Tokyo, Japan. And we realized this was the the secretive arm of the GRU, which was tasked with finding the parts to make sure that Putin's ballistic missiles and drones could continue to terrorize Ukraine. Adam Goldman is part of the team of Times reporters who've publicly revealed the role of the 20th Directorate for the first time. According to their reporting based on interviews with current and former intelligence officials, members of the unit pose as diplomats or business people as they work to smuggle battlefield technology into Russia. For example, the Times found that the head of the 20th Directorates operations in Tokyo has a cover identity as an employee of the Russian state airline Aeroflot and works out of a nondescript corporate office in the heart of the city. And while Ukrainian officials have previously presented Japan with evidence that its technology is being used in Russia's ongoing deadly attacks, the Japanese government has been slow to act. Japan has actually had a long-standing reputation as a kind of spy paradise in part because of constraints on the country's intelligence services that were put in place after World War II. But that could now be changing. The country is currently building a centralized intelligence agency for the first time since the 1940s as it faces growing threats from Russia and also from China and North Korea. The Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs didn't respond to questions from the Times about foreign espionage, but one lawmaker in the governing party said, quote, "We have a sense of crisis about the situation."

星际化学工厂:探索生命起源

在深邃幽暗的宇宙空间中,生命的种子可能早已在繁星闪烁的“化工厂”里悄然孕育。根据发表在《自然·天文学》(Nature Astronomy)杂志上的最新研究成果,天体化学家(Astrochemists: 研究宇宙中化学物质分布与反应机制的跨学科科学家)利用射电望远镜对银河系中心区域的射频信号(Radio Frequencies: 宇宙分子旋转或振动时产生的特定电磁波频率)进行了高灵敏度检测。由于宇宙中的每种物质分子都有其独特的电磁旋转指纹,科学家成功锁定了一种与地球上树莓(Raspberries)中所含成分完全相同的糖分子。这一发现不仅为科学家长期争论的生命化学起源路径提供了最坚实的观测证据,同时也验证了在星际介质中生命分子可以自主合成的假设。在此之前,科学界普遍认为生命基础物质是通过携带糖类的彗星、小行星或陨石在撞击早期地球时进行“太空播种”的,而这次在星际尘埃和气体云——即被称为星际化学工厂(Chemical Factory: 宇宙中充满星际尘埃和气体、能够自主合成复杂有机分子的空间区域)的开阔地带直接探测到该分子,表明这一生化反应在宇宙中是极其普遍的。正如研究人员所指出的,这些极端严酷的物理条件实际上普遍存在于整个银河系,因此这一发现极大提升了在银河系其他星系中同样具备生命诞生条件的概率。

Original English

And finally, scientists have announced that for the first time, they've spotted sugar deep in interstellar space. They'd been looking for it because sugar is a crucial building block of life, and there have long been theories about how it got to Earth. Some scientists think it could have been carried by space rocks smashing into the planet since several kinds of sugars have been found on asteroids and meteorites. But there have still been questions about where sugar came from before that. For the new study, which was published in the journal Nature Astronomy this week, astrochemists used telescopes to look at radio frequencies deep in the center of the Milky Way. Since every molecule produces its own unique frequency, they were able to identify a pattern that exactly matches a kind of sugar that's found on Earth. It was floating among all of the dust and gas between solar systems, a place the researchers said is a quote impressive chemical factory. One of them said, "Finding sugar out there in those conditions is meaningful because those same conditions exist across the galaxy." So, the sugar isn't just a clue about how life got started on Earth. It also makes it more likely life could have formed somewhere else, too. And the fact that really blew my mind, the sugar they found out in space is the exact same kind that's in raspberries.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

人物: Donald Trump, Marco Rubio

公司/组织: GRU, Aeroflot

关键字: geopolitics military-espionage border-enforcement astrochemistry