物理人工智能的愿景与应用领域
Speaker A: 我们的使命是为数十亿台机器注入智能,我们认为这会对社会产生深远的影响。Applied Intuition是一家实体AI公司。我们为机器、汽车、卡车、坦克、无人机等注入智能。它是一个可以移动的物理实体。我们让它变得智能。
Original English
Speaker A: Our mission is to put intelligence on a billion machines and we think that can have a profound impact on society. Applied Intuition is a physical AI company. We put intelligence on machines, cars, trucks, tanks, drones. It's a physical moving thing. We make it intelligent.
Speaker B: 数字AI,当然,是构建软件、优化广告和创建视频。这很有趣,也很好,但真正谈到全球经济时,那就是物理AI。在这个智能革命中,那些影响物理世界的公司可能实际上比影响数字世界的公司更大。[音乐]
Original English
Speaker B: Digital AI, of course, is building software and optimizing ads and creating videos. That's all interesting and good, but really where you talk about the global economy, that's physical AI. In this intelligence revolution, the companies that impact the physical world might actually be bigger [music] than the companies that impact the digital world.
Speaker A: 物理AI的理念将影响哪些方面?
Original English
Speaker A: How many things are there where the idea of physical AI, physical intelligence are going to matter?
Speaker B: 没有理由让自主性成为这项晦涩难懂的技术。我们对它的愿景是,一个能制作iPhone应用的学龄儿童应该能够制作自主系统。我们正在推出的平台就是用于设计和开发的那个。它叫做Dana。我们过去近十年建立和开发的一切都可以在Dana中找到。
Original English
Speaker B: There's no reason autonomy should be this obscure, difficult technology. Our vision for that is a high school kid that can make iPhone apps should be able to make autonomous systems. That platform for designing and developing is what we're launching. It's called Dana. Everything that we've built and developed over the past nearly a decade that's available in Dana.
Speaker A: 我们会先获得什么?是用于训练自主设备的完美模拟真实世界环境,还是“大盗自动6号”(Grand Theft Auto 6)?[笑声]
Original English
Speaker A: Which will we get first? A perfectly simulated real world environment for training autonomous devices or Grand Theft Auto 6. [laughter]
Speaker B: Kazer Peter,欢迎来到Z播客。
Original English
Speaker B: Kazer Peter welcome to the Z podcast.
Speaker A: 嗯,谢谢你们的邀请。你们的名字是……[笑声]
Original English
Speaker A: Well, thanks for having us. Your name is [laughter] just one of many.
Speaker B: 我感觉我们彼此都认识太久了,我想我们都认识得……[笑声]
Original English
Speaker B: I feel like we've I think we've all each known each other for too long. more than I'd like to admit.
Speaker A: 是的。[笑声] 很久了。我们很幸运,既是第一批投资者,或者说第一轮投资者的之一。当然,检查规模不同,但我甚至在之前就对你进行了投资。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. [laughter] Long time. We're lucky to both be the first investors or among the first investor in the first round. Of course, different check sizes, but and I was an investor for you even before then.
Speaker B: 没错。嗯,所以让我们以此为引子进行讨论吧。我们今天有很多东西要谈。你知道,这是公司历史上最大的发布之一,但首先,为什么我们不只是给那些……[清嗓子]——Applied Intuition对那些不知道的人来说,它做什么?
Original English
Speaker B: Exactly. Um, so let's do that as a segue. We have a lot to talk about today. We've, you know, the biggest launch in company history to talk about today, but first, why don't we just give an update or a [clears throat] status what does applied intuition do for those who
Speaker A: 是的,对于那些不知道的人来说,Applied Intuition是一家实体AI公司。我们为机器注入智能。这是描述它的简单方式,嗯,以及所有类型的机器。所以汽车、卡车、坦克、无人机,你举例吧。它是一个可以移动的物理实体。我们让它变得智能。公司的历史是,我们最初是通过制造那些能使……然后我们进入了实际的智能本身。在某些方面,比如像一个非常无聊的AI公司一样,83%的公司是工程。我们通过制造真正伟大的产品获胜。这不像好的销售或者那种东西。我不认为我们适合一家以销售为导向的公司,但嗯,有超过一千名工程师,而且总部位于硅谷,我们在全球有18个办公室,你知道我们的使命是为数十亿台机器注入智能,我们认为这会对社会产生深远的影响,无论是在大家谈论的那些琐碎的事情上——安全问题。你知道,如果你真的和一位经历过车祸或采矿事故或农业事故的人交谈,那都是非常棘手的情况。除了修复这些之外,如果你能解锁生产力,我认为我们已经看到了数字世界中的解锁,每个人对此都超级兴奋,而且出现了万亿美元的公司。我是一个相当坚定的相信者,我认为当我们回望25年前时,如果你回顾现在的互联网,你知道,人们实际上,如果你看看那些正在做、提供分析的原始互联网公司,那很有趣,但真正当你回望25年后,像亚马逊这样的巨型公司在为你配送东西,苹果,这些才是真正的成熟公司。在我看来,当我们回望这个智能革命的25年时,影响物理世界的公司可能比影响数字世界的公司更大。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah, for the for the people who don't know, applied intuition is a physical AI company. We put intelligence on machines. That's the the simple way of uh describing it. um and all types of machines. So cars, trucks, tanks, drones, you name it. It's a physical moving thing. We we make an intelligent and uh the history of the company is we originally started by making the tools that would make the int then we got into the actual intelligence itself. Um in a very like in some ways like a very uh boring AI company in the sense of you know 83% of the company is engineering. We win by making really great products. It's not like a good sales or something like that. I don't think we're good enough for a for a sales enabled company but uh yeah over a thousand engineers um and based in Silicon Valley but we have offices globally 18 offices and uh you know our mission is to to put intelligence on a billion machines and uh we think that can have a profound impact on society both in the kind of pissy things everyone talks about safety you know if you really talk to somebody who's been in a car accident or in a mining accident or you know uh in a farming accident. Those are real gnarly situations. Beyond just fixing that, you just if you can unlock productivity, I think, you know, we've seen the unlock in the digital world and everyone's super excited about it and you have trillion dollar companies emerging. I'm a pretty strong believer that I think when we look back 25 years, if you look back at the internet now, you know, people actually, if you look at the original internet companies that are doing, you know, serving or they're they're doing some analytics and those are interesting, but really when you look back 25 years from now, the big monolithic companies are Amazon that delivers you stuff, you know, uh Apple, these are the true kind of companies that come of age. And I think when we look back 25 years in this intelligence revolution, the companies that impact the physical world, you know, might actually be bigger than the companies that impact the digital world.
Speaker B: 我很想让你谈谈以下内容,也就是你创立公司的时候,你知道,对公司的打击是“哦,好吧,它是……你知道,汽车正在制造自动驾驶汽车,对吧?但它有点像,好吧,你知道,特斯拉在自己建造自动驾驶汽车,然后还有六到八家其他汽车公司很重要,然后这家公司就永远不可能变得那么大,因为客户数量不够。
Original English
Speaker B: I would love for you to talk about the following, which is when you first started the company, you know, the knock on the company, I think, was oh well, it's it's like, you know, car it's making making cars autonomous, right? Self-driving cars. But it's kind of like, okay, there's like whatever, you know, there's there Tesla and way more building their own self-driving cars, and then and then there's like six or eight other car companies that matter, and then the company just could never get that big because there just aren't that many customers.
Speaker A: 是的。那么,人们应该如何看待那些有很多东西在移动的地方,物理AI、物理智能将发挥作用?
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah, I mean even today even if you put that you know uh let's say uh uh view on us the automotive is like 30% of our business. So 70% already is non-automotive and I think if you fast forward another 10 20 years uh even the manufacturers themselves as a customer base will be a small amount. 我认为我们的使命就是继续思考一个数十亿台机器变得智能,并考虑所有存在的机器类型。汽车只是一个简单的例子。我认为它会深深地扎根于人们的脑海中,因为我们都在开车,而且这是一个大市场。但我想它将是业务的一个少数。我的意思是它将是业务的一个少数,但这并不意味着它会很小,对吧?
Speaker B: 汽车仍然是全球GDP的一部分,占3%。我认为我们总是这样思考它的方式:最初要实现我们的使命,制造商是把这种智能分发给消费者的渠道;但然后你开始在国防、建筑、采矿和农业中工作,突然间制造商变得重要了,但也许矿业运营商实际上更重要,或者战争部门非常重要,突然他们就成了我们的客户,而所有这些都是我们的客户。
Original English
Speaker B: Automotive is still huge just as a part of the globe's GDP. Automotive is something like 3% of all GDP. Um, I think the way we always think about it like as you try to get to your mission initially the manufacturers were the distribution to that intelligence to consumers but then you start working in defense and you start working in construction and mining and agriculture and suddenly the manufacturers are important but maybe the mining operator is actually really important or the department of war is really important and suddenly they become customers and all of those are customers of ours as well.
Speaker A: 是的。我认为如果你将AI分为数字AI和物理AI,对吧?数字AI当然是构建软件、优化广告和创建视频之类的东西。那很有趣,但真正谈到全球经济时,那就是物理AI。然后我们谈论的是制造业、采矿业、物流和运输,所有这些……供应链。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. I think if you split AI into digital AI and physical AI, right? Digital AI of course is building software and optimizing ads and creating videos, that sort of thing. Uh, that's all interesting and good, but really where you talk about the global economy, that's physical AI. And then we're talking about manufacturing and uh and mining and logistics and transportation, all of these things that
Speaker B: 是的。供应链。没错。嗯,不过我们再深入一点,就是今天移动的东西,或者说历史上移动的东西是那些在某种形式上拥有人类在方向盘或控制杆上的东西,对吧?嗯,所以你知道,飞机不得不围绕驾驶舱中的人类来设计。船不得不围绕一个人类来设计,知道吗,操纵东西。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. Supply chain. Exactly. Well, I mean, let's build on that though for a second, which is like so things that move today or you know, historically things that move are things that have human beings at the wheel or at the controls in some form, right? Um, and so and you know, airplanes [snorts] have had to get designed around a human in the cockpit. Uh, boats have had to, you know, get designed around a human, you know, steering things.
Speaker A: 在一个自主的世界里,我们是否已经知道那些移动的东西是什么?还是我们会发现有很多新东西会被建造,当你不需要驾驶座上有一个人类时?我认为两者都是。嗯,记住一件事是,你拿一个在港口上的仓储系统,比如一个卡特彼勒的土方机,这些产品是为20到25年设计的。
Original English
Speaker A: Um, like in a world where in a world of autonomy like do we already know what the things are that move or are we going to discover that there are a lot of new things that are going to get built uh when you don't need a human in the in the driver's seat? I think both. Uh, be well the the the thing that you have to remember is like you take like a a holage system that's on a in a in a port um like a catap kamasu the dirt mover uh in a mine those are made for 20 25 years.
Speaker B: 所以那些产品的买家可能还没有获得完整的投资回报周期,你知道,ROI。所以他们不会立即购买任何新东西,无论它有多好。所以我们战略的一部分是让那些东西变得智能,因为它们不会去任何地方。第二点是你谈论的那个,那取决于驾驶舱中的人类。如果你没有驾驶舱中的人类,你可以让机器更小。它可以以非常不同的方式被塑造。你谈论的是地下采矿业,对吧?
Original English
Speaker B: So the buyers of that of those products they're they might not have gotten their full cycle you know uh ROI on them. So they're not immediately going to buy something new no matter how much better it is. So one part of our strategy is you got to make those things intelligence because they're not going anywhere. The second is what you're talking about which is well that depends on a human in a cab. If you don't have a human in cab you can run the machine can be smaller. It can be shaped in very different ways. You talk about mining underground, right?
Speaker A: 约束实际上是人类,因为人类需要呼吸,而且非常危险。所以你可以建造一种非常非常不同的机器。我们正在做这两件事。然后……
Original English
Speaker A: The constraint actually is the human because the human needs to breathe and it's very dangerous and so you can build a very very different machine. We're doing both of those things. And um and then the thing that
系统智能与系统级智能的讨论
Speaker A: 我们谈论的不是关于我们正在讨论的智能,而是关于系统层面的智能。解锁就在那里,我们已经在做类似这样的工作了:比如你可能会说“嘿,让我们拿整个端口,让我们拿整个心智,让我们拿一个完整的查询”,而这种异构的机器之间可以相互交流,并且在某一台机器出现问题或宕机时,其余的大脑不必停止运行。当它是以人为驱动的时候,我们甚至不知道这台机器会不会停下来,因为没有分析,人类并没有接入到机器的核心系统里。所以,像一个简单的东西,比如知道何时会发生故障,实际上是巨大的,因为你可以提前为它做准备。哦,磨损比在其他矿井中更高。只是用一个例子,但另一个宏观要点是,如果你从农业的角度来看,你知道美国农民的平均年龄是58岁,35岁以下的农民的数量大约不到10%。那么会发生什么?对粮食增长的需求仍在持续增长。对稀土材料的需求也在持续增长,所以这些需求都在增长,但作为瓶颈的人类数量却在减少。
Original English
we're not talking about is we're all talking about intelligence almost like within a system but the system level intelligence is where the unlock is and we're already doing work like that where you say hey let's take an entire port let's take an entire mind let's take an entire query and this heterogeneous mix of machines they're all can talk to each other and they can optimize and be efficient when one machine goes down or one machine has an issue the rest of the mind doesn't have to stop when it's human-driven. event we don't even know the machine's going to go down because there's no analysis the human is not plugged into the core uh systems of the machine. So like a simple thing like knowing when a break system is going to break
Speaker B: 实际上是巨大的,因为你可以提前为它做准备。哦,磨损比在其他矿井中更高。只是用一个例子,但另一个宏观要点是,如果你从农业的角度来看,你知道美国农民的平均年龄是58岁,35岁以下的农民的数量大约不到10%。那么会发生什么?对粮食增长的需求仍在持续增长。对稀土材料的需求也在持续增长,所以这些需求都在增长,但作为瓶颈的人类数量却在减少。
Original English
is actually huge because you can start preparing for it in advance. Oh this wear and tear is higher than in other mines. Just using an example but like the the other macro point is if you look at agriculture as an example you know average American farmers 58 years old the there's that the number something like under 35 it's like less than 10% of farmers are that young so what's going to happen? the need for food growth is continuing to grow. The need for uh rare earth materials is contin so these these demands are only growing but the humans who are the bottleneck are decreasing
Speaker A: 卡车运输也是同样的情况。所以你可以解锁更多的效率。我的意思是,思考这的一种方式可能是想象一下如果食物的成本因为效率大大提高而下降了,下游影响是什么?想象一下货物运输,假设你知道每英里的价格不再是几美元,而是20美分/英里,突然之间它……我认为这个解锁非常非常非常大,而且我认为不一定需要所有机器从零开始重新设计。
Original English
Trucking is the same way. Um and so you can you can really just unlock a lot more efficiency. So I mean one way to think maybe think about this is like imagine if the cost for food decreases because it's way way more efficient. What what's the downstream impact? the imagine for goods being transported let's say you know instead of a few dollars a mile it's 20 cents a mile and suddenly it's it's I think that the unlock is very very very big um and that isn't ne I think doesn't necessarily need for all the machines to be redesigned from the ground up
Speaker B: 对,对,有道理。然后也许再问一个问题就是给我们一个参数化的感觉,比如一家公司的范围和规模。
Original English
right right got it makes sense and then maybe just one one more question would be just give give it give us a sense of parameterized like the scope and scale of a company today
Speaker A: 是的,呃,一千多名工程师。而且这些工程师你知道,显然是经典的软件和人工智能工程团队,但我们也有真正了解安全系统的工程师。我们也有真正了解硬件的工程师,因为我们目前正在左右的是所有这些东西都很困难,因为它最终必须满足现实世界的需求,而现实世界具有更多的复杂性和更多的问题,我们有可以部署我们模型到大约50个平台上的工程团队。这听起来很微不足道,因为当你想到模型时,你通常会想到通过浏览器或手机部署它们,一切都被抽象掉了,因为你有iOS,你有Android,你有Windows,你有Linux,而且所有这些系统已经在现实世界中处理好了,你没有那个,所以我们有可以做到这一点。就像我们公司在历史上筹集了超过十亿美元一样,我们也有声誉。我总是说,拥有一个星际(astrog)并不意味着我们不会花钱,你知道,下个月……
Original English
yeah uh uh north of a thousand engineers and those engineers are you know obviously the classic you know uh uh uh software and AI uh engineering teams but we also have engineers who really know safety systems. Uh we also have engineers who really know hardware because the important thing that we we're kind of just uh tipping around stepping around is all this stuff is hard because it ultimately has to meet the real world and the real world is has way more complexity and and and has a lot more issues and we have engineering teams that can I mean we've deployed our our our models onto like 50ome platforms like even that sounds trivial because when you think about mostly when you think about models you think about deploying them through a browser or on a phone and everything's abstracted away because you don't of iOS and you have Android and you have Windows and you have Linux and you have all these systems that have already taken care in the real world you don't have that and so we've we have engineering teams that can do that as well our kind of a you know claim to fame as we've uh raised over about a billion dollars in the company's history all that is sitting in the bank and uh I think uh that's I always say that with an astrog doesn't mean we're not going to spend it you know next uh next month
Speaker B: 好消息,坏消息。是的,好消息和坏消息。呃,但我们正处于那个阶段,你知道,你谈论规模的时候,我们正处于这个阶段,这些巨大的市场在我们周围,我们可以决定我们想对它们有多积极地追求,因为十年的执行和部署到生产中。我认为我们工程团队的标志是把产品投入生产,那真的很大。我不知道你如何看待规模?是的,我认为这大致就是我们的使命,将智能带给十亿台机器,这就是我们思考它的方式,然后思考我们将对哪些类型的机器产生最大的影响,首先关注那些领域。但我们会到达那里的。
Original English
good news bad news yeah good news bad news uh it's uh but it's the the uh and I Like we're at that phase, you know, you you talk about scale, we're at that phase where these giant markets are around us and we can make the decision how aggressive do we want to pursue those because decade of frankly execution and deployment into production. I think the hallmark of our engineering team is is putting you know products into production that that really is is a big I don't know how do you think about scale? Yeah, I think that that's roughly I mean the mission of bringing intelligence to a billion machines that is how we think about it and then thinking about well what are the types of machines that we'll have the most impact on and focusing on those areas first but uh we'll get there
Speaker A: 对,好。让我们深入探讨数字AI和物理AI之间的区别,以及更多地探讨目前我们取得了什么进展,在物理AI中存在哪些主要的瓶颈?当你解开其中一些问题时。
Original English
right good i uh let's go deeper into the differences between digital and physical AI and more so into where where are we today what progress has has made what are some of the main major bottlenecks in physical AI when you unpack some of that
Speaker B: 是的,我的意思是,我认为很多人认为物理AI的进展仅限于基本上两个用例,因为它们很明显和有趣,比如机器人税和人形机器人。它们非常直观。它们让你兴奋,而且有点科幻感。我个人认为它们非常有趣。我们正在这些领域做着真正的努力,还有其他人也在做。我认为所有其他领域都将变得同样重要。我的意思是,你只需要想想港口上发生的事情。那里有一个巨大的解锁。那是我认为我们真正关注的领域。就像我们之前谈过Cisco的兴起,你知道网络是如何从最初的单个机器和公司变成整个国家联网的。AI也有类似的事情。现在“主权AI”(sovereign AI)正在成为一个讨论的话题。主权AI真的关乎物理AI,因为你是在谈论国防中的AI。你是在谈论移动的物理机器中的AI。如果你看看美国的一个Whimo和中国的Pony的例子,他们试图在其他国家部署,比如不是美国、不是欧洲、不是中国。所有这些空间,他们都更犹豫于说:“是的,赞。你的机器人出租车可以在我们……我们的国家自由运行。”所以,如果你回顾一下互联网的这个弧线,你知道,当第一批互联网公司出现时,没有人真正考虑主权。就像浏览器到处都有,互联网到处都有。这就是它的力量。然后当社交媒体出现时,会有更多的是“嘿,实际上并非所有社交媒体都……”然后你又有了中国不让Facebook进入,然后你进入了下一个层面,比如线上线下。那里有更多的抵抗,Uber、DoorDash突然出现了本地玩家,他们被非常积极地青睐。当我们达到物理AI的时候,我认为将会是巨大的,而且还有一个更大的地缘政治主题,也就是比全球化更具碎片化的主题。你会对这种需求产生,并且我认为这种AI应该以某种方式实现本地化,我认为这也会影响我们的战略。我们是一个技术提供商,所以我们可以将这种技术在全球范围内提供。我认为这是在这次对话中被低估的。
Original English
yeah i mean i think a lot of times people think about the progress in physical AI is limited to basically two case use cases and they're just cuz they're obvious and interesting which is robo taxes and humanoids. Um they're very visceral. They're they're they excite you and they're kind of sci-fi. Um i think they're those are very interesting. Uh and they there is real work being done by us and other people in in those domains. I think all the other uh all the other domains I think are going to be just as important. I mean, you just you just think about what happens on a port. That's there's a huge unlock there. Um, and that's I think that's the that's the area we're we're we're really focused on. It's like all the other nooks and crannies. If you look at like we we've talked before about uh the rise of Cisco and how you know networking kind of went from you know first individual machines and companies would get network and then entire countries are getting network. There's a similar thing happening with AI. AI's getting to that level of kind of sovereign AI is now a discussion. Sovereign AI really is about physical AI because that's where you're talking about AI in defense. You're talking about AI in the physical machines that are moving around. If you look just at the example of of uh Whimo from America and Pony from China trying to deploy in let's say the other countries, so not America, not Europe, not China. every one of those uh spaces, they're way more uh they're way more hesitant of saying "Yeah, thumbs up. Your robo taxis can run unfettered on our in our uh country." And so, if you look back just at kind of this arc of the internet, you know, when the first internet companies come, nobody's really think about sovereignty at all. It's like the browser goes everywhere, the internet goes everywhere. That's almost the power of it. Then when social media emerges there's a bit more of hey actually not every social media and then you have China not allowing Facebook to come in and you have some then you get into the next level of like the online offline stuff there's more resistance the Ubers the door dashes suddenly there's local players who are being favored very aggressively when we get to physical AI I think there's going to be huge and also there's like a larger geopolitical theme of of kind of uh more fracturing than globalization you're going to have this demand and for this AI should somehow be localized and I think that has to play into our strategy as well. We're a technology provider so we can provide that technology across the globe. Um and I think that's that's that's uh that's that's something that's understated in this in this uh conversation
Speaker A: 是的。关于数字AI和物理AI的几个其他方面。在数字AI中,最先进的是你可以有效地在整个互联网上训练模型,然后可能用收集并由一些雇佣专家完善的额外数据来增强它。对吧?这现在有点热门领域。但一般来说,你谈论的是一个基于互联网数据的基础模型。在物理AI中,互联网数据也是有用的。然而,要真正构建一个物理AI的基础模型,也存在大量的私有数据收集。当我们谈论矿山或物流或这些其他领域时,用于训练模型的那些数据并不一定可用。所以我们必须自己做很多工作,去收集那些数据。然后另一个关键因素是安全,对吧?如果你在谈论构建智能手机应用,你并不一定关心它是一个安全关键型应用。但当你谈论移动一个重量达数吨的机器时,或者想想一个可以……
Original English
yeah a few other things on on digital versus physical AI so in digital AI the state-of-the-art is you you can train models effectively on the entirety of the internet and then maybe augment that with additional data that's been collected and refined with some hired experts right this is sort of a hot field right now but generally you're talking about a foundation model that's built on internet data in physical AI the internet data is is useful too however to actually build a foundation model in physical AI there's also a lot of private data collection you when we're talking about mines or or logistics or any of these other uh other fields the data that's useful for training models there is not necessarily available so we have to do a lot of work ourselves actually going going out and collecting that data and then the other key factor is safety right if you're talking about building a smartphone app you don't necessarily care about is is a safety critical application but when you're talking about moving a machine that weighs many tons uh or think of a humanoid which could
AI 安全与数据收集的现状
Speaker A: fall over on your children, uh you care a lot about safety and and the evaluation of that safety and and that is really sort of getting to the state of the art of physical AI and and really proving out uh the safety case around some of these state-of-the-art models.
Original English
Speaker A: fall over on your children, uh you care a lot about safety and and the evaluation of that safety and and that is really sort of getting to the state of the art of physical AI and and really proving out uh the safety case around some of these state-of-the-art models.
Speaker B: Yeah. And I think like you know you talk about like humanoid data collection has been its own you know uh little uh area of interest but when you talk about collecting data like in places like Korea where they have north South Korea where you have North Korea they don't allow mapping companies let alone allowing a you know an American company to come in and data collect. We've figured out over the years whether it's the Middle East, whether it's Latim, how to get into these countries, work with the governments and get the thumbs up to collect proprietary data. And so in in the way that it's it is similar to you know other uh digital AI systems, your proprietary data sets, scaling laws, all that stuff is the same. It's just applied in a very very different way. And uh it's almost like the way to think about it is like the diffusion of these models is very different because you can't it's not everyone can just access them through a phone. you're and so so that ironically is actually plays in our favor because once we have a massive proprietary data set where we've been building we already have hundreds of pabytes of data um and then we have our own tools which are like you know synthetic data tools uh neural sim we can use our own tools with our own proprietary data and that allows us to build some of the best systems in the business is there's kind of a chicken and egg thing which is like in order to build an autonomous physical thing you need a lot of data to gather that data, you need a lot of physical autonomous things running around collecting the data. So, it's like once you have a giant network of physical things running around, you have the data that makes them all work like is there is there is there like what what's the level of difficulty involved in kind of booting up that flywheel?
Speaker A: Uh it's it's it's difficult, but it's also not difficult. I I mean I think we we have one of the largest data collection fleets on the planet, frankly speaking. Um so that's how you bootstrap your way into it. That's just money and resources and technical knowledge, but it's not like there's probably more than five companies that have that technical knowledge. So, it's not extremely obscure. I think what is more difficult is then how do you actually have that model which is going to work on lots of different hardware and is, you know, is is tested appropriately because the you saw it, you know, in Cruz, right? Cruz was this company that did amazing self-driving work and then one accident, General Motors owns them and they get super scared and they pull back. So, it's like just getting these things into production is actually more difficult than than it seems. Um I think like we believed synthetic data was going to be important. So, we started our synthetic data team like 5 years ago now plus yeah more than that at this point.
Original English
Speaker A: Uh it's it's it's difficult, but it's also not difficult. I I mean I think we we have one of the largest data collection fleets on the planet, frankly speaking. Um so that's how you bootstrap your way into it. That's just money and resources and technical knowledge, but it's not like there's probably more than five companies that have that technical knowledge. So, it's not extremely obscure. I think what is more difficult is then how do you actually have that model which is going to work on lots of different hardware and is, you know, is is tested appropriately because the you saw it, you know, in Cruz, right? Cruz was this company that did amazing self-driving work and then one accident, General Motors owns them and they get super scared and they pull back. So, it's like just getting these things into production is actually more difficult than than it seems. Um I think like we believed synthetic data was going to be important. So, we started our synthetic data team like 5 years ago now plus yeah more than that at this point.
Speaker B: like and we're a strong believer that synthetic data can accelerate autonomy development. We've just seen that and then there are like lots of other secondary and tertiary like kind of technical innovations that happen. Obviously the transformer revolution hitting self-driving massive basically everything done in self-driving pre2122 relevant but you're almost like that's kind of the starting point but it's also different than today being the starting point like there those four five years are actually there has been a lot of work done you can see it most clearly with Tesla but there's other folks uh in that process the actual techniques historically and I'm just simplifying here imitation learning was the way the way of the which was collect a bunch of data and then the models would basically imitate what human drivers do.
Original English
Speaker B: like and we're a strong believer that synthetic data can accelerate autonomy development. We've just seen that and then there are like lots of other secondary and tertiary like kind of technical innovations that happen. Obviously the transformer revolution hitting self-driving massive basically everything done in self-driving pre2122 relevant but you're almost like that's kind of the starting point but it's also different than today being the starting point like there those four five years are actually there has been a lot of work done you can see it most clearly with Tesla but there's other folks uh in that process the actual techniques historically and I'm just simplifying here imitation learning was the way the way of the which was collect a bunch of data and then the models would basically imitate what human drivers do.
Speaker C: The real state-of-the-art right now is end-to-end reinforcement learning in in a closed loop in in your tools. And so it's a little simplified to say the system learns itself. It identifies where the issues in the self-driving system are and essentially you then find data like that or you synthetically create data like that and then you you know close that loop and you see are you performing in those same scenarios better and better. I think if you fast forward some years that will be a completely closed loop like with no humans intervening. Right now you still have like like what's the the fog error that we saw um we still see errors in the real world that impact self-driving.
Original English
Speaker C: The real state-of-the-art right now is end-to-end reinforcement learning in in a closed loop in in your tools. And so it's a little simplified to say the system learns itself. It identifies where the issues in the self-driving system are and essentially you then find data like that or you synthetically create data like that and then you you know close that loop and you see are you performing in those same scenarios better and better. I think if you fast forward some years that will be a completely closed loop like with no humans intervening. Right now you still have like like what's the the fog error that we saw um we still see errors in the real world that impact self-driving.
Speaker D: Oh yeah. So it's like well what what are the bottlenecks right? and and the bottlenecks. Uh there's plenty of them, but uh whenever you're dealing with physical systems, you inevitably you hit a lot of gnarly hardware problems. And uh it could be anything from overheating to uh sensor being slightly miscalibrated or a funny funny issue we saw yesterday was uh basically a fogging sensor like fog impacting a sensor. And uh but these are the things that you actually have to solve for this stuff to work very reliably in the real world.
Original English
Speaker D: Oh yeah. So it's like well what what are the bottlenecks right? and and the bottlenecks. Uh there's plenty of them, but uh whenever you're dealing with physical systems, you inevitably you hit a lot of gnarly hardware problems. And uh it could be anything from overheating to uh sensor being slightly miscalibrated or a funny funny issue we saw yesterday was uh basically a fogging sensor like fog impacting a sensor. And uh but these are the things that you actually have to solve for this stuff to work very reliably in the real world.
Speaker E: Yeah. So I want to ask you a thread a question and you can we can decide whether you guys want to engage on it or not. It might be an opportunity or might hate the question which is were you surprised? So Cruz was a super high-flying Silicon Valley autonomy startup that was kind of running neck and neck with Tesla early on and so forth and you know very top-end team and then they famously got bought by General Motors.
Original English
Speaker E: Yeah. So I want to ask you a thread a question and you can we can decide whether you guys want to engage on it or not. It might be an opportunity or might hate the question which is were you surprised? So Cruz was a super high-flying Silicon Valley autonomy startup that was kind of running neck and neck with Tesla early on and so forth and you know very top-end team and then they famously got bought by General Motors.
Speaker F: one of my first distributions personally. So there we go. Y Cominator Y Com Y Cominator company um and um and you know a top end team and they they were you know by all accounts making excellent progress. They got bought by General Motors. They became the GM autonomy program. GM got a lot of praise at least, you know, at least in the in the in the tech in tech circles for being like, okay, being like the the legacy automaker with the biggest investment.
Original English
Speaker F: one of my first distributions personally. So there we go. Y Cominator Y Com Y Cominator company um and um and you know a top end team and they they were you know by all accounts making excellent progress. They got bought by General Motors. They became the GM autonomy program. GM got a lot of praise at least, you know, at least in the in the in the tech in tech circles for being like, okay, being like the the legacy automaker with the biggest investment.
Speaker G: I I called Peter when before before it was announced on that. And I said, hey, Cruz just got bought, you know, he's also GM family. We're both GM families. And uh Peter Guest was he said Nvidia? I said no. He said I said go fish is Apple. I said no. I said General explicative motors. [laughter]
Original English
Speaker G: I I called Peter when before before it was announced on that. And I said, hey, Cruz just got bought, you know, he's also GM family. We're both GM families. And uh Peter Guest was he said Nvidia? I said no. He said I said go fish is Apple. I said no. I said General explicative motors. [laughter]
Speaker H: Right. So, so that's surprising to people who are from GM that they were willing to buy that they did okay that they did it and then by all accounts they were I mean as far as like as far as I ever heard like they were making excellent progress uh and then they had this there was a there was an accident there was a was that was a injury or fatality or
Original English
Speaker H: Right. So, so that's surprising to people who are from GM that they were willing to buy that they did okay that they did it and then by all accounts they were I mean as far as like as far as I ever heard like they were making excellent progress uh and then they had this there was a there was an accident there was a was that was a injury or fatality or
Speaker D: uh it wasn't a fatality it was a serious injury somebody was [clears throat] dragged for 20 ft
Original English
Speaker D: uh it wasn't a fatality it was a serious injury somebody was [clears throat] dragged for 20 ft
Speaker I: yeah serious injury bad press and then and then they put a bullet they the GM CEO on board put a bullet in the cruise project and I know that at least some of the senior cruise people were extremely upset you know [clears throat] the by by the aftermath of that was it surprising that they reacted the way that they did?
Original English
Speaker I: yeah serious injury bad press and then and then they put a bullet they the GM CEO on board put a bullet in the cruise project and I know that at least some of the senior cruise people were extremely upset you know [clears throat] the by by the aftermath of that was it surprising that they reacted the way that they did?
Speaker J: Uh so you know full disclosure General Motors is a customer and I went to the General Motors Institute so we have a lot of love for the company. Uh but incidentally and ironically I'm reading uh coincidentally I should say I'm reading this very famous book which I had actually never read before called on a clear day you can see General Motors right [laughter]
Original English
Speaker J: Uh so you know full disclosure General Motors is a customer and I went to the General Motors Institute so we have a lot of love for the company. Uh but incidentally and ironically I'm reading uh coincidentally I should say I'm reading this very famous book which I had actually never read before called on a clear day you can see General Motors right [laughter]
Speaker K: and Delorean's book. Have you read it?
Original English
Speaker K: and Delorean's book. Have you read it?
Speaker L: As one does. As one does.
Original English
Speaker L: As one does. As one does.
Speaker M: Have you read that book?
Original English
Speaker M: Have you read that book?
Speaker N: So I have years ago I have. It's one of the great alltime book titles. And we should just pause to say John Delorean was like what he was like the super genius of the car industry.
Original English
Speaker N: So I have years ago I have. It's one of the great alltime book titles. And we should just pause to say John Delorean was like what he was like the super genius of the car industry.
Speaker O: He was going to be the next president of General Motors of General Motors and then later on he started his own car company which like Back to the Future and then that whole thing collapsed for variety of reasons.
Original English
Speaker O: He was going to be the next president of General Motors of General Motors and then later on he started his own car company which like Back to the Future and then that whole thing collapsed for variety of reasons.
Speaker P: Uh but yeah he he was like a legend. He was like one of the main principal drivers of innovation of the current Bob Lutz this category
关于大型企业与国家状态的类比及工程组织结构
Speaker A: 记住,这是这个。但抱歉,重复一下书的标题。
Original English
Speaker A: got to remember this is this right but sorry repeat the title. Repeat the title of the book.
Speaker B: 在一个晴朗的日子里你可以看到通用汽车(General Motors),为什么那会是这本书的标题?因为呃,有很多 [laughter]。
Original English
Speaker B: On a clear day you can see General Motors and why why was that the title of the book? because uh there's a lot of [laughter].
Speaker A: 它非常庞大复杂。
Original English
Speaker A: It's a very large complex.
Speaker B: 是的,复杂。是的。它就像一个国家机器。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. Complex. Yeah. It's like it's like a nation state.
Speaker A: 是的。我的意思是,真的,我的意思是,它就像……我记得我们说有时候几乎是轻率地,但这些公司就像是扩展,比如现代汽车(Hyundai)是国家的延伸。丰田(Toyota)是国家的延伸。大众(Volkswagen)简直就是大众董事会成员是政府的成员。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. I mean really I mean it is like I think we say that like sometimes almost like flippantly but these companies are like extension like Hyundai is an extension of the state. Toyota is an extension of the state. Volkswagen is literally Volkswagen board members are members of the government.
Speaker B: 所以这些是国家的延伸,而且几乎每一个呃,以前都有一个老说法,通用汽车对美国好就是对美国好。你不能低估通用汽车对美国历史有多重要。斯隆(Sloan)在我于通用汽车工作的那些年,以及白领男性如果经营一个大型工程组织,你应该读那本……这是我们作为一个现代企业所谈论的这个东西,不是斯隆和凯特林(Ketaring)创造了它吗?凯特林是工程主管,她创建了这个AR,你知道,有层级和副总裁。你如何做职能型和矩阵式组织?这真的就像源代码随之而来。约翰……呃,你知道,在德罗里安(Delorean)上,他会说,嗯,他写着,他要当总裁了,但他对一家公司感到非常厌倦。但有争议的是GM当时做得非常好。
Original English
Speaker B: Sloan's my years at General Motors and Adventures white collar man if you run a large engineering organization you should read that that is the this like you this thing that that we talk as a modern corporation didn't just emerge Sloan and Ketaring create ketaring is the head of engineering created this this AR, you know, with levels and vice presidents and how do you do functional and matrix organizations? It's there really is like the source code comes along John uh uh you know comes on Delorean and he says um he writes he's going to be president and he's so fed up with a company but what was controversial was GM was doing really well at the time. GM was like a when we say like GM was number one in the Fortune 100 it was like number one two and three. It was everything and it was seen as the best company in America. So somebody to openly criticize the company and so he has a whole he writes this book as he quits out of out of uh how annoyed he was general is being read led uh he writes this book and then after he like so up he's like I don't want that book published [laughter] and so he fights for years for his co-author not to publish the book. The co-author still publishes it. So it's a real true insight into a large corporation. I'm incidentally just reading it out even though I've you know worked at GM 20 some years ago and had you know know a lot about the company and what's shocking is it's not only about GM most of the major manufacturers actually still operate that way uh on the inside and so the question isn't the point I think for everyone to take away isn't that these people who run these companies are stupid they're not stupid they're it's kind of like you know when you're selling to the department of war and people say well why are you doing that it's like well the distribution defines the business.
Speaker B: 像……所以,比如分销是这个消费产品的。这个统计数据可能已经过时了,但当我二十年前在安全系统工作的时候,我记得GM过去会狠狠地敲打你关于美国历史上前五大消费者诉讼的头脑。三项是汽车行业。我们赢得了大多数,所以你必须极其小心。但是我们在公司内部有一些奇怪的东西,你不能……它不是红、黄、绿。它是紫色的,或者你总是需要一个解码器,因为你知道为什么?因为当他们去起诉时,他们会说,你让一个被标记为红色的安全系统进入生产线。我当时是说,不,它是标记为洋红色。[laughter] 想象一下这有多令人恼火吗?每次你问橙色是什么意思?这是否意味着我必须像……这么快地向前推进到你遇到那个系统。嗯,对于福特(Ford)来说,很长一段时间内的口号是质量是第一位的,对吧?安全是工作。
Original English
Speaker B: So like the distribution is this is a consumer product of this this stat might be outdated but when I worked in safety systems 20 years ago I remember GM used to pound into your head of the top five consumer lawsuits in in American history three are automotive. We got the majority right so it's like you have to be extremely careful. But we had these like weird things like inside the company you couldn't it wasn't red, yellow, green. It was like purple or like you'd always have to decoder because you know why? Cuz when they go to lawsuits they're like you let a safety system that was marked red go to production. I was like no it was marked magenta. [laughter] Like so like can you imagine how infuriating that is? Every time you're like what does orange mean? Does this mean I have to like So fast forward to you're meeting that system. Well, for then the Ford slogan for a very long time was that it was quality is job one, right? Safety is job.
Speaker B: 是的。是的。确切地。而这正是汽车行业的两点核心:质量和安全。质量和安全,因为日本真的重置了那个阶段,而且因为那是一个完全不同的汽车历史。我们可以谈论一个小时的汽车历史。但重点是,你让硅谷的公司面对这个不可移动的目标。
Original English
Speaker B: Yes. Yeah. Exactly. And and that's the one two punch of automotive. It's quality and safety. Quality and safety and quality really becomes because the Japanese really reset that that stage and and because that's a whole separate automotive history. We could talk about automotive history for for an hour. But the punch line is you have the Silicon Valley company meeting this immovable object.
Speaker B: 现在存在一个平行宇宙正在那里航行。即使作为通用汽车的一部分。所以我想你总得把它放在公司所在的环境中,工会谈判发生的那个年份。如果你是工会,你不能为我们赚十亿美元,但你正在资助这个正在杀死人们的东西,而且它很混乱。所以我不是说那正是发生的事情,非常清楚地,但这是一个多变量问题。我的另一个观点是,你知道,我曾在谷歌(Google)和通用汽车两家公司工作过。那些公司比它们不同要相似得多。
Original English
Speaker B: There is a parallel universe that cruises out there right now even as a part of General Motors. So, I think you always have to take it into the context of where the company is, where union negotiations are happening literally that year. And if you're the union, you're like, you can't make a billion dollars for us, but you're funding this thing that's killing people and it's sloppy. And so, I'm not saying precisely that's what happened to be very clear, but the it's a multivariate problem. My other hot take is, you know, I worked at both companies, right? Uh Google Google Motors. Those companies are way more similar than they're different.
Speaker A: 非常相似。字面上,人们不需要知道这个。谷歌的平级系统和通用汽车的平级系统是一样的。[laughter] 我以前常说,你知道,在谷歌会议里,就像,嘿,我认识的一些我在通用汽车的工程师比这里的工程师更好。人们会看着我,好像我说没有上帝在教堂里。他们会想,你这个来自底特律的金属弯曲猴子,怎么敢?
Original English
Speaker A: Way way more similar. Literally, people don't need to know this. The Google leveling system is the same as the General Motors [laughter] leveling system. And I used to say I saying, you know, this inside of Google meetings is like, hey, actually some of the engineers I knew at General Motors are better than the engineers here. And people would look at me like I'm saying there's no God in church. It's like they're like, how dare you, you metal bending monkey from Detroit. [laughter]
Speaker A: 就像,不,实际上,制造现代内燃机极其复杂。它不是简单的东西。所以宏观要点我认为是,安全总是在他们的首要清单上。我确实认为我们雇佣了很多巡航(cruise)的人。我认为他们处理与政府的特定问题的方式,你必须以某种特定的方式应对当这种情况发生时,而他们只是没有以完全正确的方式跳舞,这只会给政府官僚提供更多的弹药。
Original English
Speaker A: It's like, no, actually like making a modern combustion engine is extremely complex. It's not just like, you know, it's it's not simple stuff. And so the the macro point I think is it's a bunch of things. I think safety is always at the top of their top of their list. I do think, you know, we've hired lots of cruise people. I think the way they dealt with that specific issue with a government, you you got to you got to dance a particular way when that happens and they just didn't dance exactly right and that that just gives government bureaucrats
Speaker B: 更多的弹药。你是个大目标,比如通用汽车,你知道,它让你们想起那部电影《好家伙》(Good Fellas),你知道吗?在上升的太阳(rising sun)的房子里,你知道所有老老板都走进了法庭后面,他们就像是……你知道发生了什么。董事会就像是,“我们对巡航该怎么办?”“我们能做什么?” [laughter] 就像是,“凯尔是个好人。” 但 [laughter],然后就变成了,“太阳升起”。人们在旧金山办公室里跑来跑去。开玩笑的。[laughter] 不要让那成为一个AI视频。
Original English
Speaker B: more ammo to go after. and you're a big target like General Motors, you got to you know it it reminds you guys ever see that movie like uh uh Good Fellas uh you know uh there the one of the last scenes the house of the rising sun you know all the old bosses go in the back of the courtroom and they're like and you know that's what happened. And they're like the board was like, "What are we going to do about cruise?" Like, "What can we do?" [laughter] It's like, "Kyle's a good guy." But [laughter] and then it's like, "Que the rising sun." People running through a San Francisco office. Just kidding. [laughter] Don't Don't make that an AI video.
Speaker B: 所以,我认为存在一个会生存的宇宙,但它很艰难。所以然后很多应用直觉的东西就是你说的,就像那种舞蹈,就是如何成为这些公司的伟大合作伙伴。
Original English
Speaker B: So, I think I think there is a universe that would have survived, but it's it's it's it's tough. So then a lot a lot of what applied intuition does is kind of as you said like that dance it's like how to how to be a great partner to these companies.
Speaker A: 完全正确。考虑到他们自己非常真实的问题和限制。
Original English
Speaker A: Exactly. Bearing in mind their own re very real issues and constraints.
Speaker B: 我认为通用汽车也有商业模式的话题。所以你对巡航一直在追逐机器人出租车概念,但GM的利润来自于个人汽车所有权。这些东西可能会有点奇怪。所以我认为那也是方程中的一部分。
Original English
Speaker B: I think general also had the topic of business model right. So you have uh cruise was going after the robo taxi concept but GM makes its profits from personal car ownership and those things can be a bit odd. So I think that was also a bit of the bit of the equation.
Speaker B: 好的。是的。我认为这并不清楚。我的意思是,无论如何,你知道,你曾在2013年在YC(Y Combinator)演讲过。我当时是听众。我当时是一个合伙人,你对某件事说了一些东西,我认为它非常……递归。我们正在互相喂养设备。这是新技术商业中的关键。实际上每个人都弄明白了技术,尽管这仍然很困难。有时构建真正复杂的东西仍然很困难。问题在于何时以及如何将它们部署到市场。你提前两年就完了。你晚两年,竞争者太多了。你必须在正确的地方击中它。
Original English
Speaker B: Okay. Yeah. And I think it wasn't clear. I mean the by the way you know um you actually all people you spoke at YC at 20 in 2013. I was in the audience. I was a a partner at the time and um you said something which I think is it's it's very like uh recursive here. We're we're feeding each other device. It's uh the key thing in in new tech in the new technology business actually everyone kind of figures out the technology though that's still hard. It's still hard sometimes to build really complex things. It's when and how you deploy them into the market. the when becomes really important. You're two years early and you're doomed. You're two years late, there's too many competitors. You have to like hit it at the right spot.
Speaker B: 我认为说一些有争议的事情是,我实际上认为克鲁兹(Cruz)他们肯定比威莫(Whimo)的步伐快得多。他们起步落后了很远,你谈论的是肩并肩的时候,你知道最终插头被拔掉了。所以谁知道长期会发生什么。我们在那个方程中的假设是分销。你让……
Original English
Speaker B: it's like like I mean a controversial thing to say is like I actually think Cruz, you know, they were certainly moving at a much faster pace than Whimo. They started way behind and you're talking about neck andneck when you know ultimately the the plug was pulled. So who knows what happens in the long term. Our hypothesis in that same equation is actually the distribution.
制造商与AI的整合视角
Speaker A: manufacturers do that. Like we run self-driving trucks right now in Japan. They carry commercial loads. They're they're, you know, safety drivers there, but they're autonomously running. And but you won't know that because the brand is Isuzu.
Original English
Speaker A: manufacturers do that. Like we run self-driving trucks right now in Japan. They carry commercial loads. They're they're, you know, safety drivers there, but they're autonomously running. And but you won't know that because the brand is Isuzu.
Speaker B: Mhm. That's the customer. And and why it's so good for us to partner with Isuzu in that case is that company's been around for almost a hundred years, right? Uh if I'm not mistaken, pre-preWorld War II company. and they are uh you know they know the government they have test tracks they know safe they know their own trucks very well so when we go and provide them with the intelligence and the integration into their physical machinery that's a fantastic one two punch I think today the world is ready to consume AI in the real world and that's a lot because of chat GPT and anthropic and all these you know everything that's happened so people are no longer like what's a self-driving car and it's because of whimo and Tesla
Original English
Speaker B: Mhm. That's the customer. And and why it's so good for us to partner with Isuzu in that case is that company's been around for almost a hundred years, right? Uh if I'm not mistaken, pre-preWorld War II company. and they are uh you know they know the government they have test tracks they know safe they know their own trucks very well so when we go and provide them with the intelligence and the integration into their physical machinery that's a fantastic one two punch I think today the world is ready to consume AI in the real world and that's a lot because of chat GPT and anthropic and all these you know everything that's happened so people are no longer like what's a self-driving car and it's because of whimo and Tesla
Speaker A: so the market is ready to consume and And I think you just have to meet the market in the way that the best way possible. And our view of that has always been you go through some of the people who run the economy right now. Whether it's a mining operator, whether it's a department of war, whether it's uh uh the manufacturers and we work with, you know, within each vertical uh with with the right partner. But that's a fundamentally different view than a Tesla or a Whimo which are going to be vertical
Original English
Speaker A: so the market is ready to consume and And I think you just have to meet the market in the way that the best way possible. And our view of that has always been you go through some of the people who run the economy right now. Whether it's a mining operator, whether it's a department of war, whether it's uh uh the manufacturers and we work with, you know, within each vertical uh with with the right partner. But that's a fundamentally different view than a Tesla or a Whimo which are going to be vertical
Speaker B: where we're really playing the horizont. And I think the way we can always think we think about that our companies, we're kind of like a like a chipmaker, you know. We we we we actually look and talk and walk a lot like a silicon company except we obviously we don't make chips but you know we're are we have design wins and then we have really large long-term relationships and then once we're in we're in it's really hard to you know take take us out. So you need deep trust our our partners have really a a lot of deep trust and we know their markets really really well. The things that Jensen knows is he knows his customers.
Original English
Speaker B: where we're really playing the horizont. And I think the way we can always think we think about that our companies, we're kind of like a like a chipmaker, you know. We we we we actually look and talk and walk a lot like a silicon company except we obviously we don't make chips but you know we're are we have design wins and then we have really large long-term relationships and then once we're in we're in it's really hard to you know take take us out. So you need deep trust our our partners have really a a lot of deep trust and we know their markets really really well. The things that Jensen knows is he knows his customers.
Speaker A: That's why Nvidia does well beyond the fact obviously they make a very complex technology. Mhm. So, how are these legacy uh car companies preparing for the future? Are they making or more acquisitions? They're going to are they building, you know, partnering with you? Are they how are they going to compete with, you know, tech technative companies?
Original English
Speaker A: That's why Nvidia does well beyond the fact obviously they make a very complex technology. Mhm. So, how are these legacy uh car companies preparing for the future? Are they making or more acquisitions? They're going to are they building, you know, partnering with you? Are they how are they going to compete with, you know, tech technative companies?
Speaker B: It's like saying like how are governments dealing with AI? It's such it's such a broad topic. Um and each manufacturer like even like you take Honda, Nissan, Toyota, three Japanese manufacturers with, you know, long legacies, they all approach it very differently. They're roughly in a spectrum of we're going to build to we're going to buy. Um and other both extremes more than ever we're going to buy is the common answer because they've been trying and we've been there the whole time. Uh for the folks that are going to build, we provide them tools uh and you we talk a little bit about our our our new uh product that we're we're announcing here. And then uh on the ones that just want to buy, we we sell them the actual intelligence that goes on the machines. And so we meet the customer wherever they're ready in their in their journey. Um the more nuanced version of that is you know uh the reality is like every every product is a different product and so the amount of silicon and amount of dollars you can put towards it uh towards sensors what the customer is willing to pay all that depends on what actually gets in the long horizon. All these things will be fully autonomous, but the intermittent steps are very much what we saw in the PC where you you have this slow step up to one day that'll be like now nobody really looks at laptop specs and even maybe frankly your phone specs but that's not the case from basically 85 to 2002 2005 where finally people stop actually specking at all and and then they're really moving to laptops. uh but there's a similar kind of 20-y year I think uh horizon
Original English
Speaker B: It's like saying like how are governments dealing with AI? It's such it's such a broad topic. Um and each manufacturer like even like you take Honda, Nissan, Toyota, three Japanese manufacturers with, you know, long legacies, they all approach it very differently. They're roughly in a spectrum of we're going to build to we're going to buy. Um and other both extremes more than ever we're going to buy is the common answer because they've been trying and we've been there the whole time. Uh for the folks that are going to build, we provide them tools uh and you we talk a little bit about our our our new uh product that we're we're announcing here. And then uh on the ones that just want to buy, we we sell them the actual intelligence that goes on the machines. And so we meet the customer wherever they're ready in their in their journey. Um the more nuanced version of that is you know uh the reality is like every every product is a different product and so the amount of silicon and amount of dollars you can put towards it uh towards sensors what the customer is willing to pay all that depends on what actually gets in the long horizon. All these things will be fully autonomous, but the intermittent steps are very much what we saw in the PC where you you have this slow step up to one day that'll be like now nobody really looks at laptop specs and even maybe frankly your phone specs but that's not the case from basically 85 to 2002 2005 where finally people stop actually specking at all and and then they're really moving to laptops. uh but there's a similar kind of 20-y year I think uh horizon
Speaker A: broadly when we talk about machines and machines becoming intelligent right fundamentally a machine is it's a collection of these different components that are integrated right and and whoever does that final integration is often times the company that puts their their badge on it the brand name but many many companies are building technology that goes into that machines and so we now have a bunch of technology components and platforms that can go into these machines but we also sell the core technology that can be used to develop help them as well. And if you look by the way under the hood of a dirt mover or like combine or diesel truck, they'll have Cumins engines in them. But nobody says, "Well, because all these guys buy Cumins, this this means that they're, you know, uh whatever Caterpillar is not a good company." It's like, no, that's just a component that they buy. Uh they they they have a different role. So, if you when you look in any of these verticals, there's it's just a complex web of folks. That's why I always say like the the chip kind of analogy actually works quite effectively because some none of those companies make chips but they all buy chips. Uh and so I think that that's it's a good way to think about it.
Original English
Speaker A: broadly when we talk about machines and machines becoming intelligent right fundamentally a machine is it's a collection of these different components that are integrated right and and whoever does that final integration is often times the company that puts their their badge on it the brand name but many many companies are building technology that goes into that machines and so we now have a bunch of technology components and platforms that can go into these machines but we also sell the core technology that can be used to develop help them as well. And if you look by the way under the hood of a dirt mover or like combine or diesel truck, they'll have Cumins engines in them. But nobody says, "Well, because all these guys buy Cumins, this this means that they're, you know, uh whatever Caterpillar is not a good company." It's like, no, that's just a component that they buy. Uh they they they have a different role. So, if you when you look in any of these verticals, there's it's just a complex web of folks. That's why I always say like the the chip kind of analogy actually works quite effectively because some none of those companies make chips but they all buy chips. Uh and so I think that that's it's a good way to think about it.
Speaker B: So self-driving cars. So you know we've all been talking about self-driving cars for like I think the whole thing started like around what 2005 or something with the DARPA Grand Challenge originally and so and then Google engaged in the program shortly after that.
Original English
Speaker B: So self-driving cars. So you know we've all been talking about self-driving cars for like I think the whole thing started like around what 2005 or something with the DARPA Grand Challenge originally and so and then Google engaged in the program shortly after that.
Speaker A: Yeah. Late double O's. Yeah.
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. Late double O's. Yeah.
Speaker B: Late double O's. Um uh so almost basically around a little less than 20 years maybe. Um, and there have been lots of predictions over the last 20 years of like self-driving cars are imminent at any moment. Um, so I guess the bad news is we're sitting here today and most cars are not self-driving. The good news is there are now self-driving cars.
Original English
Speaker B: Late double O's. Um uh so almost basically around a little less than 20 years maybe. Um, and there have been lots of predictions over the last 20 years of like self-driving cars are imminent at any moment. Um, so I guess the bad news is we're sitting here today and most cars are not self-driving. The good news is there are now self-driving cars.
Speaker A: Yeah. And so the way most cars are driving all over, you know, in the places they're deployed, it's become, you know, like people in San Francisco, I think, treat it now as routine that they get into.
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. And so the way most cars are driving all over, you know, in the places they're deployed, it's become, you know, like people in San Francisco, I think, treat it now as routine that they get into.
Speaker B: And I think you can call I think Tesla, it's kind of like the AGI thing. It's like, you know, if we're talking 20 years ago, everything we're seeing right now is like mind-blowingly AGI. The post keeps moving. The Tesla stuff's amazing. You can look at a bunch of manufacturers. Blue Cruise, Super Cute Cruise, BMW, Volvo's Pilot, they're [clears throat] all quite impressive systems. They're not full self-driving, right?
Original English
Speaker B: And I think you can call I think Tesla, it's kind of like the AGI thing. It's like, you know, if we're talking 20 years ago, everything we're seeing right now is like mind-blowingly AGI. The post keeps moving. The Tesla stuff's amazing. You can look at a bunch of manufacturers. Blue Cruise, Super Cute Cruise, BMW, Volvo's Pilot, they're [clears throat] all quite impressive systems. They're not full self-driving, right?
Speaker A: But yeah, well, it's it's full self-driving X, whatever remote [snorts] monitoring is [laughter] happening. Um, uh, the Tesla we have we have a home in in Los Angeles, and you guys may recall there was a there was a large fire in Los Angeles. Then the power then and then the California power grid was buckling even before that. And so, um, it actually turns out among the things Cybertrs are good at is they're they're very good, uh, batteries. Yeah. Yeah.
Original English
Speaker A: But yeah, well, it's it's full self-driving X, whatever remote [snorts] monitoring is [laughter] happening. Um, uh, the Tesla we have we have a home in in Los Angeles, and you guys may recall there was a there was a large fire in Los Angeles. Then the power then and then the California power grid was buckling even before that. And so, um, it actually turns out among the things Cybertrs are good at is they're they're very good, uh, batteries. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker B: And so literally we have Cyber Trucks as our backup battery for the house. And as of last year, whatever the FSD released, I forget the exact one, but there was one where it like at least a lot of people thought it like really turned the corner
Original English
Speaker B: And so literally we have Cyber Trucks as our backup battery for the house. And as of last year, whatever the FSD released, I forget the exact one, but there was one where it like at least a lot of people thought it like really turned the corner
Speaker A: 14. Yeah. And like that thing drives you. I talked to somebody yesterday uh talked to somebody yesterday who has a Model Y who let the let the thing let the thing do the full route all the way up Highway One through Big Su.
Original English
Speaker A: 14. Yeah. And like that thing drives you. I talked to somebody yesterday uh talked to somebody yesterday who has a Model Y who let the let the thing let the thing do the full route all the way up Highway One through Big Su.
Speaker B: Yeah. I think mean disengage like uh the uh uh meanantime and uh like uh miles per disengagement are are really high. I think miles is like in the thousands.
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. I think mean disengage like uh the uh uh meanantime and uh like uh miles per disengagement are are really high. I think miles is like in the thousands.
Speaker A: Yeah, which is like very impressive.
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah, which is like very impressive.
Speaker B: Yeah. The big for people who haven't driven the big highway one big su like that's a that's a that's a a stressfilled drive. He said it was great the whole Anyway, so and I wouldn't have been talking to him had it not been [laughter] would have gone right off right off
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. The big for people who haven't driven the big highway one big su like that's a that's a that's a a stressfilled drive. He said it was great the whole Anyway, so and I wouldn't have been talking to him had it not been [laughter] would have gone right off right off
Speaker A: because he unbolted the steering wheel. So right right off the cliff. Um so um uh and then you know Tesla's rolling out their robo taxi you know is is starting starting to show up in in the wild. So, so on the one hand
Original English
Speaker A: because he unbolted the steering wheel. So right right off the cliff. Um so um uh and then you know Tesla's rolling out their robo taxi you know is is starting starting to show up in in the wild. So, so on the one hand
关于自动驾驶的普及性与挑战
Speaker A: 存在这样的情况。另一方面,你知道,99.9999999% 的汽车仍然不是自动驾驶的。然后我会说,也许只有一辆是自动驾驶卡车。最近在媒体上出现了一种反复出现的恐慌,比如卡车变成自动驾驶后,就业问题,你知道,所有这些卡车司机都会失业。今天坐在这里,我并不认为我不知道,路上有没有任何没有安全驾驶员的自动驾驶卡车?我认为答案可能仍然是……
Original English
those exist. On the other hand, you know, 99.9999999% of cars are still not self-driving. And then I would say maybe just one other would be the self-driving trucks. There's been this recurring kind of panic in the press of like the trucks become self-driving and the employment, you know, all these truck drivers be out of a job. And sitting here today, I don't think I don't know. Is there are there any trucks on the road that are self-driving that don't have at least a safety driver in the truck? And I think the answer is probably still
Speaker B: 是的,银色(指特斯拉),如果我们这样说,我们来分一下。这里有我们提出的多个观点。比如,对于个人拥有的车辆为什么没有变得如此普及?其中一部分是制造商不擅长部署技术。另一部分是他们想保持安全意识,但大多数时候是成本问题。嗯,你在中国看到的东西,也就是中国是一个有点不同的电动汽车生态系统,主要是因为他们不在乎利润。当你谈论一个不在乎利润的商业时,它改变了整个行业的计算方式,这个行业是不在乎的。但是,你看到的是 L2++ 系统。所以我们可以把整个自动驾驶的讨论简化为:车里是否有一个坐在方向盘后面的司机?
Original English
Yeah, silver, if you so let's let's split let's split the there's multiple points that we brought up here. is on the let's say personally owned vehicles and why are they not more ubiquitous. Uh the part of that is the manufacturers are not good at deploying technology. Part of that is they're they're they want to be safety conscious but most of it is cost cost. Um the the what you're seeing in China which is a chi China is kind of a different EV ecosystem mainly because they don't care about profits. when you're talking about business that doesn't care about profits, it changes the entire calculus of the entire industry that doesn't care. Uh but what you're seeing is you're seeing L2++ systems. So we can simplify the entire self-driving conversation to is there a driver behind the steering wheel,
Speaker A: 对吧?所以这仍然有一个坐在方向盘后面的司机,但通常情况下,比如特斯拉开车到处都是。它们价格在 1000 美元以下,对吧?有激进的竞争,那包括芯片、传感器、整机包、软件,等等。我们预料到,一旦你达到大约 500 万辆,汽车原始设备制造商(OEM)就会免费补贴它,他们会直接给你。这在导航系统方面发生过,如果你还记得导航系统以前是件大事,你需要花四五千美元才能买一个导航系统,然后突然它变得免费了,它就成了默认选项。我认为那会发生。有一个奇怪的事情是,进入你汽车的一个子集成本是 X 美元,而进入所有汽车的成本是 X 加上一个小小的增量,因为这只是一个固定成本,以及车辆的数量、装配线的规模以及你所有的认证制度、所有这些测试机制,所有这些东西。所以我想你会等待,然后很多……
Original English
right? >> So this is a driver behind the steering wheel still there, but generally like Tesla drives everywhere. Uh they're like sub $1,000, right? >> There's an aggressive that's that's chip, sensors, the package, the software, everything. uh we you know anticipate that there's a very agg once you get to like 500 the automotive OEMs will actually subsidize it for free they'll just give it to you this happened in nav systems if you guys remember nav systems used to be a big thing for you pay 4 grand 3,500 to get a nav system and then suddenly it became free and it just became default I think that'll happen the there's a a weird thing which is like actually getting into a subset of your cars costs x dollars and to get into all the cars costs x plus just a small incremental amount because it's just a fixed cost and the way that how many vehicles and the way the assembly line comes and the way you have homologation all these testing regimes all this stuff so I think you'll have wait and then a lot
Speaker B: 每一个 OEM,没有例外,即使是最低美元的 OEM 也在为 FSD(完全自动驾驶)竞争。所以它会到来。但就像你用一个很好的类比来思考个人拥有的生态系统中的自动驾驶一样,就是移动电话。我们有卫星电话,然后我们有高通砖头手机。然后我们有摩托罗拉 Razr,从 90 年代末到 2000 年代末,每个人都在问什么时候会是移动互联网?然后它来了,iPhone 发布后大约四年,当你有了 Uber、Instagram、WhatsApp、Snapchat 时,对吧?
Original English
every single OEM without exception even the lowest dollar OEMs are working on an FSD competitor >> so it it'll it'll come but it is just like uh you know with uh a good analogy to think about self-driving in the personally owned ecosystem is mobile phones >> we had we had the the satellite phones then we had the Qualcomm you brick phones. Then we had the Motorola Razors and from you know the late '9s to the late two you know double zeros everybody was like when's mobile going to come there was a huge like and then it comes and by by 07 from the iPhone launch like it's like four years when you get Uber, Instagram, WhatsApp, Snapchat, right?
Speaker A: 这些是杀手级应用。所以我想存在一种非常非常相似的等待期,然后它基本上会普及到每辆车上。如果你非要问我那个数字是多少,28 SOP(量产开始),29、30 年,到 30 年代初期,它将变得非常便宜甚至免费。
Original English
those are the killer applications. So I think there's a very very similar kind of wait and then it's just basically ubiquitous in every vehicle. Um, if you had to ask me for what that number is, 28 SOP, 29, start of production, 29, 30, and then by the early 30s, it'll start becoming very cheap to free.
Speaker B: 通常来说,到 30 年代初期,你就会买一辆车,然后就假设它自动驾驶了。或者 L2++ 系统在座椅上就是非常具体。比如赛博半兽(Cybertruck)或特斯拉,现在特斯拉的车主拥有的东西会变得普遍。是的,将成为默认选项。那么问题是,我们为什么没有到处都是 Whimo?特别是 Whimo 有不同的技术,虽然这里不深入探讨细节,但特斯拉和许多中国以及应用领域公司在端到端的模型架构方面投入了很多。这是一种新的自动驾驶方式。Whimo 的缺乏一个更好的词不是它没学到东西。它只是没有一个端到端的系统。它不是一个单一的整体模型。他们方法的倾向之一是依赖高精地图。因此,存在地理围栏的概念。我认为 Whimo 正在努力消除那个瓶颈,这样他们可以更快地扩展地理范围。但今天的现实情况不是那样。另一件事是,当你有研究人员时,他们确实来自于某个字母研究所(Alphabet Research)组织,他们没有把商业约束放进去。所以传感器是定制的且昂贵的。汽车和计算单元在那里,它们在经济上并不可行。他们已经尝试降低成本了很多。但事情有点像,从一个非常便宜的东西开始,让它变得更具功能性比一个过度设计的东西要容易得多,然后再试图修剪并让它变得非常、非常便宜。这就是大辩论:谁会先到达那里?是特斯拉以完全自动驾驶还是 Whimo 以成本和地理普及性。
Original English
like Cybertruck or Tesla what Tesla people have what Tesla owners have today will become common. >> Yeah. Will be default. So then the question then uh the the the you know the the other side of this is why don't we have a bunch of Whimos everywhere >> specifically Whimo has a different technology without getting into the nuances uh here but Tesla and many of the Chinese and applied were very much in this end-to-end model architecture. Um this is a new way of doing self-driving. Whimo for the lack of a better word is not that. It's not doesn't mean they're not learned. It does it just there's not one end-to-end system. It's not one monolithic model. Um, one of the proclivities of that their approach is it does depend on HD maps. Therefore, there is a geo fencing concept. I think Whimo is trying hard to remove that bottleneck so they can expand geographically faster. But the reality of today isn't there. The other thing is when you have researchers, which they they really was uh coming out of uh an alphabet research organization, they didn't put commercial constraints. So, the sensors are bespoke and expensive. The cars and the than the compute that are in there, they're they're just not economically feasible. And they've tried a lot to get that down. But, it's kind of like it's a lot easier to go from something that's really cheap and make it more uh, you know, more featureful than something that's overbuilt and then trying to trim and make it really, really cheap. And that's the big debate. Who's going to get there first? Tesla with full self-driving or Whimo with cost and geographic ubiquity.
Speaker A: 我们在辩论什么?会发生吗?没有那些事情。所以现在我们显然处于自动驾驶的工程层面,也就是不断降低每英里成本的磨合过程。一旦它变得便宜,你猜怎么着?所有 OEM 都很聪明。他们就会采用它。不是因为 OEM 不想让消费者想要它,或者他们不理解这项技术。而是因为他们想要一个价格范围,允许他们保持他们那薄如蝉翼的利润率,并且在规模上实现这一点,对吧?这在 V1 阶段部署到一百多个国家。所以如果你只是进行小规模部署,情况就完全不同。我认为……而且我最后想说的是,斯巴鲁或铃木的车主对品牌的期望与特斯拉车主是完全不同的,包括消费者的年龄以及他们认为会发生什么和不会发生什么。所以这也是一个原因。所以如果你是铃木车主,你可能会想,我的买家可能不想要这些东西,所以我不会把它塞进车里。不是因为他们技术能力不行。只是一个不同的领域。
Original English
right? >> You know what we're not debating about? Like is is is there a big technical breakthrough that needs to happen? None of those things. So now we're clearly in the engineering side of self-driving, which is just this grind down to like dollar per mile efficiency. And the moment that it's cheap, guess what? All the OEMs are smart. They'll just they just adopt it. It's not the OEMs are resistant because they don't think consumers want it or they don't understand the technology. It's because they want a price envelope which allows them to keep their thin razor thin margins and at a scale right >> which is deployed across 100 plus countries in V1 right >> and so if you're just doing a small deployment it's very different and I think and and that was the last thing I would say is the buyer of a Subaru >> or a buyer of a Suzuki have very different brand expectations that a buyer of a Tesla >> and so including the age of the consumer and what they think will happen and won't happen. Um, so that that also the reason. So if you're a Suzuki, you're like, well, my buyer is like not doesn't want this stuff, so I'm not going to jam it into the car. It's not because they're not like technically competent. It's just a different area.
Speaker B: 你觉得什么时候会变得常规?假设美国最大的 200 个城市,步行出去,你就会理所当然地认为一个机器人出租车可以来接你吗?嗯,现在是 26 个。我的意思是,到 30 年肯定会是这样。好的。是的,到 30 年肯定会是这样。我可以说最大的变量在于……因为 Whimo 会说的是每城市的美元成本已经解决了,而且它是一个基本上拥有无限资本的公司。为什么他们还没有在 200 个城市?但你会看到他们的发布计划非常激进,你可以做到这一点。所以也许如果我更激进一些,我会说 28 年。是的。好的。我会说到 30 年可用,但常规可能到 32 年。是的,33 年。
Original English
When do you think when do you think it'll be routine? Let's say the 200 biggest American cities like um would it be routine to [snorts] walk outside and you just you just take it for granted that a robot taxi can come pick you up? >> Uh it's 26 now. Um I mean certainly by 30. All right. Okay. >> Yeah. Certainly by 30. And I I would say the big like variable there really is like >> because you what Whimo will say is that the dollars and cents per city already work and it's like well a company that has basically unlimited capital. Why are they not already in 200 cities? But then you see their launch schedule is pretty aggressive and you're like that that can that can get there. So >> maybe if I was being aggressive I would say 28. >> Yeah. Okay. >> Like I would say I would say available in 30 but routine and maybe like 32. Yeah, 33.
Speaker A: 当然,因为有规模。还有如果你住在洛杉矶,五年前我去了那里,人们会说:“应用直觉?我不知道自动驾驶汽车是什么。”在过去的几年里,他们都知道自动驾驶了。而且有些人甚至知道应用直觉,因为他们从其他制造商那里知道了。我认为再快两年到四年,每个人都会知道。那么这是否意味着每个人都只选择 Whimo 呢?不。实际上情况是这样。现在有一个巨大的、巨大的……如果你看看数字,如果你是 Uber,你会感到害怕。我的意思是,它只是侵蚀着网约车市场。嗯,是的,但要实现 100% 的普及性,这意味着它必须极其便宜。
Original English
And also if you you you know you live in LA and so like five years ago I'd go to LA, people would be like, "What's applied intuition? I don't know what self-driving cars are." Uh in the last couple years now, they all know self-driving. And some of them even know applied intuition because they know from the other manufacturers. Uh I think you fast forward another two to four years, everybody knows it. Now >> does that mean everyone's taking Whimos exclusively? >> Right? >> That answer is no actually. Now there is a huge huge if you look at the numbers if you're Uber you got to be scared. I mean they're just eating into into ride sharing. Um >> yeah but to get 100% ubiquity I mean that's that's that's another it has to be extremely cheap.
Speaker B: 那长途卡车呢?所以长途卡车的经济完全不同,完全是另一种……
Original English
And what about long haul trucking? >> So long so that's what we that's the passenger side. The long haul trucking completely different economics completely different um
商业模式与行业现状
Speaker A: 目前有很多公司正在运营长途卡车,司机在美中运输货物。如果你把中国算上,可能已经有五家以上公司进入这个领域了。所以,虽然它存在,但你不知道原因以及为什么它不是首要关注点的原因是,它不是一个消费产品。与像Whims和特斯拉那边的投资者愿意为了潜在的市场估值进行某种调整不同,他们说卡车运输业务就像买一辆心动的汽车一样,你是用计算器来买卡车的。
Original English
Speaker A: Um, there are many companies right now, I would say probably north of five that are running long haul trucks with drivers carrying loads between America and China. If you had China, it's probably getting into double digits. So, it's there, but the reason uh you don't know it and the reason it's not top of mind is it's not a consumer product. And unlike uh on the Whimo and Tesla side where investors are willing to essentially give you uh you know some uh market cap uh you know uh adjustment for the potential of the they say the trucking business is like you know made you buy a car with your heartstrings. You buy a truck with a calculator.
Speaker B: 是的,它是一个计算器业务。而且他们……所以这就像纯粹的美元和分。所以我认为你作为自动驾驶卡车的提供者,如果你做的是整个事情,像一些公司是这样的,我们不是……你需要为每一英里展示我将为你节省多少美元,而且这绝对是,绝对是,因为买家的不那么复杂,他们就是说,嗯,我已经雇了一个司机可以开车了。而且他们就是不倾向于现在我们在日本玩这个游戏。这里做卡车运输是有需求的。今天存在着巨大的劳动力短缺,还有人口结构正在崩溃的情况,所以几乎每个行业都有需求,这就是我们选择这个市场去真正增长的原因。但我认为你甚至可以考虑更模糊的,比如什么时候所有查询都会……你知道,比如你移动水泥、移动泥土,而不是矿石开采。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. It's a calculator [laughter] business and they and so it's like pure dollars and cents and so I think um you as the provider of self-driving trucks if you're doing the whole thing like some of the companies are which we're not >> you have to show every mile I'm going to I'm going to save you this many dollars and it's like for sure for sure for sure cuz the buyer's unsophisticated and they're just like well I already got a staff it can drive and it's like and they're like they're just not inclined now where we're playing in Japan it's not random that we're doing trucking demand. There's a massive labor shortage today and there's an imploding demographic uh uh you know situation and so there's a demand from almost every sector and that's why we've we've picked that market to to really grow but I think like you can take like even more obscure like when will all uh queries you know literally like uh where you you know you you're moving cement you're moving you're moving dirt uh not queries u e a r u a r quarries. Quarries rock stone >> rock stone cement. Uh, when when are those uh I can tell you the people who own those things and run those things want it today, >> right? >> So it's literally then you don't you don't have a which literally we can't make the stuff fast enough, >> right?
Speaker A: 对。宏观观点是人们不谈论的,我认为所有事情都会发生。但那很快就发生了。在立法和经济上,这个对话的政治经济学核心是人工智能。因为会计师们都在说我不知道这会发生在我工作上,而风险投资家肯定你所有的同事都很害怕,但在我们的大学里,他们正在辩论他们是否需要我们。
Original English
Speaker A: Um the macro point though that people uh don't talk about I I think all the stuff's going to happen, >> right? >> But that happened pretty soon >> and happened fairly soon. The macro point that in in legislation and and kind of in in the in the kind of uh economics the political economy of this conversation is AI is really you see you have this big push back in digital AI because accountants are like I don't know this is going to happen to my job and VCs I'm sure all of your associates are very scared but like in our univer they're debating whether they need us.
Speaker B: 是的,是的。在我们的宇宙中情况正好相反。而且你真的会……我会遇到这些运营商,他们会说我们给你一切。比如你能做到这个,我们就给你一切。所以我们只需要像你知道那样积极地去争取。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. In our in our universe it's the other way around. And it's like you literally I'll I'll I'll meet these you know operators and they're like we'll give you everything. Like if you can do this we'll give you everything. So then it's just up to us to like get there as as you know aggressively.
Speaker A: 嗯,你知道对长一段时间来说,卡车运输一直存在一些原因触发了媒体的想象力,比如某种末日般的失业。但是那是不对的。继续说吧。没有足够的卡车司机,而且猜怎么着?没有人想成为卡车司机。为什么呢?解释一下。
Original English
Speaker A: Well, you know the fear for a long time has been for trucking for some reason triggers the at least the press's imagination on like you know sort of apocalyptic levels of job loss. Like will there >> but that's it's so wrong. Go ahead. There's not there's not enough truck drivers and guess what? Nobody wants to freaking be a truck driver. Why is that? Explain that.
Speaker B: 因为这是一份糟糕的工作。你……你……就像我长大的那个城镇的主要特色是一个卡车停靠站。所以我知道答案,但为什么现在是卡车运输呢?这就像你在问我,你知道这是什么,这就像你在跟我的孩子说话,他说,“为什么我不能把手放在炉子上?”是因为它会烫伤你的手。所以……但是为什么?就像第三次一样,来吧伙计,我们来做这个。
Original English
Speaker B: Because it's a terrible job. It's like you're you're like >> by the way I grew up the main feature of the town where I grew up was a truck stop. So I know the answer but why is truck why is truck driving now >> it's like it's like you're asking me it's you know what this is this is like a you know talking to my kid who's like well why can't I put my hand on the stove? It's like because it's going to burn your hand. [laughter] It's like but why? It's like after the third why it's like come on buddy let's do this [laughter]
Speaker A: 好吧,我们来做困难的那种。是的,我们来……所以什么很难?
Original English
Speaker A: >> the hard way. >> Yeah let's [clears throat] So what's hard?
Speaker B: 我在开玩笑。只是想让每个人都知道我第一次没有那样做。[laughter] 是的,是的。所以什么很难?为什么成为卡车司机是一份困难的工作,或者为什么孩子们长大后不想去做它呢?
Original English
Speaker B: >> Yes. Yes. So what's hard? What why why is being a truck driver a difficult job or why would kids not want to do it when they grow up?
Speaker A: 所以,让我用一个平行的类比来解释一下,这个非常清晰。然后你可以……你知道人们会说,就像现在没人想工作了,他们说,“嗯,麦当劳有很多职位空缺。”不,不。实际上,那些以前在麦当劳工作的那些人现在是Door Dash和Uber。
Original English
Speaker A: >> So what let me use a parallel analogy which is very clear and then you can why you know people will say like nobody wants to work anymore and they say well you know McDonald's has all these job openings. No, no. Actually, what it is is those people that used to work at McDonald's now Door Dash and Uber
Speaker B: 因为对他们来说更好,因为他们可以开工,可以开始他们的工作时间,结束他们的工作时间,而且他们不需要……没有老板,他们不需要站着,他们可以在订单之间刷手机,你知道吗?他们不喜欢那样。这就是它不是随机的原因。市场是高效的。所以以卡车运输为例,为什么有人不想离开家人4到8天连续做长途卡车运输呢?更尖锐的例子是在澳大利亚,为什么人们不想去买飞机去一个矿山工作,或者你跑去离岸油气平台工作?这些工作是存在的。如果你想要一份年薪六位数的工作,它们是存在的。即使有了如此丰厚的薪酬待遇,也还不够,因为人们会说,“你知道,我喜欢待在家人身边,而且我愿意接受成本和收入的增量下降。”
Original English
Speaker B: >> because it's better for them because they can open they can start their hours and end their hours and they don't have to there's no boss and they don't have to like stand on their feet and they can surf their phone in between, you know, orders and they don't like that's the reason it's not random. The market is efficient. And so in the truck driving example, why does somebody not want to be away from their family for 4 to 8 days in a row doing long haul trucking? The more sharp example is in Australia, why don't people want to go literally buy a plane to go to a mine and work on or you go offro uh offshore oil rigs. Those jobs exist. If you want a job that pays six figures, they exist. even with such lucrative pay packages, it's not enough because people are like, you know what, >> I like kind of being around my family and I'm willing to take an incremental decrease in cost and and how much money I make.
Speaker A: 而且我认为今天比以往任何时候都更多的事情,比如背痛和暴露在阳光下以及癌症。那些关心这些的人现在是这个事情的一部分。告诉我如果我理解正确的话,但我相信是因为我认为商业长途司机平均寿命比他们的同龄人短10年。而且我认为这是一个缺点,人们说这是几个因素的后果。其中一个是一些营养和睡眠的组合。你知道它基本上是……
Original English
Speaker A: >> And and then also like I think today more than ever things like >> back pain and like being exposed to the sun and cancer and people that care about that's now a part of the >> this is the thing. Tell me if I I have this right, but I believe it's because I think commercial long-term drivers die life expectancy 10 years less than their peers. And I think it's a con people say it's a consequence of several things. So one is some combination of nutrition and sleep. It's you know it's a basically you know >> it's yeah it's very difficult it's very difficult to eat well and exercise and >> what's your sleep score if you're a long haul trucker? Let me guess eight sleep on that.
Speaker B: 完全正确。所以像肥胖和心脏病、高血压等等都非常高。而且第二点我认为振动……对身体的压力非常大。第三点你提到了癌症,但我认为卡车司机患左臂黑色素瘤的几率要高得多。
Original English
Speaker B: >> Exactly. Yeah. There's photos of like a truck driver who's been driving for 30 years, one half their face, the other half's face cuz they're exposed to the sun. Right. A more interesting or even more uh stark stat. Mining is 1% of the labor pool globally, 8% of work related fatalities. Do you think people are rushing to work in mines when they hear stats like this? Most major mines have a fatality regularly, which means once, twice a year, three times a year. And if you ever visit a mine, you'll see that everything is based around safety because once you experience one of your co-workers dying, then you're like, >> "What am I doing here?"
Speaker A: 是的。就像我有其他工作可以做。所以……我理解你试图为听众列举,比如,“但这些不是好工作。”是的。而且最好的证据是这并不是一个采矿播客。那不是一个关于长途卡车运输有多棒的播客吗?它们只是不吸引人的工作。
Original English
Speaker A: >> Yeah. And even trucker even truckers don't want their kids to become truckers like it's it's for that reason why they you know they want their kids to be in a safe at the very least like safe safer safer line of work.
Speaker B: 但……尽管有这一切,他们会做多久?你觉得长途卡车运输中还会有人做安全司机吗?那些是自动驾驶的,或者或者让某个人在驾驶室里处理到达时发生的事情?我们知道现在有几家公司有司机目标。好的。所以他们正在努力把司机弄出来。你知道,不进入我们的具体细节……说实话,这并不长。我们谈论的是几年,而且我认为是长远来看。是的。从长远来看。事情是……那里有一个软件。
Original English
Speaker B: >> But um do the do the notwithstanding all that do they how long will there be do you think there will be safety drivers in long haul trucks that are that are self-driving or or or let's say other even just somebody in the cab to deal with what happens when they arrive? We know multiple companies that have driver goals right now. Okay. So like they're they are working to get drivers out right now. Um you know without going into our own details [laughter] >> to be honest it's not long. We're talking talking a few years and uh >> I think on the long end. >> Yeah. On the long end. And the thing is it's it's a there there's a software
技术与冗余系统的生产化挑战
Speaker A: technology thing which is one part of the problem. But the other part is it's the redundancies that you need in hardware and the validation necessary for those redundancies. And in many cases that can actually be a long pull. It's like, oh, they're productionizing a fully redundant steering system, fully redundant braking system, that's that's not in high value production yet. And once you get that in high value production, now you got the quality up and then that's validated and now you can actually do these near the price downs. Exactly.
Original English
technology thing which is one part of the problem. But the other part is it's the redundancies that you need in hardware and the validation necessary for those redundancies. And in many cases that can actually be a long pull. It's like, oh, they're productionizing a fully redundant steering system, fully redundant braking system, that's that's not in high value production yet. And once you get that in high value production, now you got the quality up and then that's validated and now you can actually do these near the price downs. Exactly.
Speaker B: Do you guys do do you look like it's the you know these little delivery robots? Like is that do you see a world where there's a billion of those running around?
Original English
Do you guys do do you look like it's the you know these little delivery robots? Like is that do you see a world where there's a billion of those running around?
Speaker A: Yeah, I think so. I mean the uh the the the product that we're announcing I think it's probably come out around with this time is called Dana. So there's you can just simplify everything that applied intuition does into two buckets which is the we've been talking mostly about the models that go on the machines then this is we say onboard software or onboard AI then there's offboard AI this is the tools to design and develop these same systems the models that actually go on the machines our uh you know vision for that is and the delivery robot is a great example is like a high school kid or a middle schooler they can make iPhone apps they should be able to autonomous systems. So why can't they just ask that's a very simple question. Why can't a
Original English
Yeah, I think so. I mean the uh the the the product that we're announcing I think it's probably come out around with this time is called Dana. So there's you can just simplify everything that applied intuition does into two buckets which is the we've been talking mostly about the models that go on the machines then this is we say onboard software or onboard AI then there's offboard AI this is the tools to design and develop these same systems the models that actually go on the machines our uh you know vision for that is and the delivery robot is a great example is like a high school kid or a middle schooler they can make iPhone apps they should be able to autonomous systems. So why can't they just ask that's a very simple question. Why can't a
Speaker C: ninth grader make a delivery robot in their in their home? Well, they don't have the the actual environment that they would first develop the scenarios in. They would define the requirements. Hey, I want this robot to go on my high school campus around these let's say four buildings.
Original English
ninth grader make a delivery robot in their in their home? Well, they don't have the the actual environment that they would first develop the scenarios in. They would define the requirements. Hey, I want this robot to go on my high school campus around these let's say four buildings.
Speaker A: Uh then how okay now that you define the requirements then you have the scenarios get made. Where are all the scenarios that can that can uh that can be made by using let's say a satellite image of the high school. Uh then now you have to train the robot. So you need some data. Where do you get that data? There's maybe enough publicly available data that can actually train a fairly rudimentary robot. Okay. Now you got that data from online maybe YouTube videos couple other places. Suddenly the robot's not doing now you need to deploy it onto the actual machine. So then you deploy it onto the machine and then the robot runs into the wall. Okay. What happened there? The loop closes. That platform for designing and developing is what we're launching. It's called Dana. Uh which is the street that applied intuition is [laughter] headquartered on. Uh and uh and our our you know this comes from our tooling background. And if you look at like how tooling has changed in the digital AI world, if you look at like what Claude did to all we also remember like you know from mix panel to you know uh gitlab github all these now everything has moved into a very different almost IDE frankly speaking we think the same thing is going to happen in the physical world and so uh that that's yeah that's what we're that's what we're building that's what we built and that's what we're launching and we already use it inhouse uh to develop our autonomy system which is you know and we're working on the most kind of scaled complex systems uh on the planet in all these different verticals. So we're pretty confident that it's actually quite useful. We've seen massive productivity gains. Uh but also uh you know we think like uh other companies will use this to build their own systems because it gets to that mission that building intelligent machines. Fundamentally or Dana is our agentic platform for physical AI and and everything that we've built and developed over the past nearly a decade. every every tool, every technique that's available in Dana and it's very actually easy to use uh with the aenic interface and so workflows that used to maybe take days or weeks to run, you can now run those in in minutes in many cases, right?
Original English
Uh then how okay now that you define the requirements then you have the scenarios get made. Where are all the scenarios that can that can uh that can be made by using let's say a satellite image of the high school. Uh then now you have to train the robot. So you need some data. Where do you get that data? There's maybe enough publicly available data that can actually train a fairly rudimentary robot. Okay. Now you got that data from online maybe YouTube videos couple other places. Suddenly the robot's not doing now you need to deploy it onto the actual machine. So then you deploy it onto the machine and then the robot runs into the wall. Okay. What happened there? The loop closes. That platform for designing and developing is what we're launching. It's called Dana. Uh which is the street that applied intuition is [laughter] headquartered on. Uh and uh and our our you know this comes from our tooling background. And if you look at like how tooling has changed in the digital AI world, if you look at like what Claude did to all we also remember like you know from mix panel to you know uh gitlab github all these now everything has moved into a very different almost IDE frankly speaking we think the same thing is going to happen in the physical world and so uh that that's yeah that's what we're that's what we're building that's what we built and that's what we're launching and we already use it inhouse uh to develop our autonomy system which is you know and we're working on the most kind of scaled complex systems uh on the planet in all these different verticals. So we're pretty confident that it's actually quite useful. We've seen massive productivity gains. Uh but also uh you know we think like uh other companies will use this to build their own systems because it gets to that mission that building intelligent machines. Fundamentally or Dana is our agentic platform for physical AI and and everything that we've built and developed over the past nearly a decade. every every tool, every technique that's available in Dana and it's very actually easy to use uh with the aenic interface and so workflows that used to maybe take days or weeks to run, you can now run those in in minutes in many cases, right?
Speaker B: And uh and this just lowers the barrier to entry to building these systems and just lowering the bar of like you know what it means to develop an autonomous system. Autonomy is still actually quite in the scope of software is quite exotic. It's not because of the things that we've talked about and we've just brought that down very very aggressively and it's kind of like you know the old adage of like how do you make a great product in software? It's like you either increase safety, convenience or cost and we want to try to do all three of those things with with Dana. Um and our hope is just like you said like you know uh kids can develop robots for their uh for their own use and and that extends to humanoids. So we're not just talking about like landbased systems or or you know ones where that are that are uh so you humanoids you can do drones.
Original English
And uh and this just lowers the barrier to entry to building these systems and just lowering the bar of like you know what it means to develop an autonomous system. Autonomy is still actually quite in the scope of software is quite exotic. It's not because of the things that we've talked about and we've just brought that down very very aggressively and it's kind of like you know the old adage of like how do you make a great product in software? It's like you either increase safety, convenience or cost and we want to try to do all three of those things with with Dana. Um and our hope is just like you said like you know uh kids can develop robots for their uh for their own use and and that extends to humanoids. So we're not just talking about like landbased systems or or you know ones where that are that are uh so you humanoids you can do drones.
Speaker C: The fact that right now writing drone software and deploying it at the time it's quite obscure and almost hobbyist. Uh we want to just make that absolutely like you know maybe not child's play but like teenager play. So this points to a world of like just like a lot more experimentation and entrepreneurship and like agriculture bots and like basically every domain construction defense you just all of a sudden have a much larger number of people who are applying creativity and coming up with ideas and making things that move.
Original English
The fact that right now writing drone software and deploying it at the time it's quite obscure and almost hobbyist. Uh we want to just make that absolutely like you know maybe not child's play but like teenager play. So this points to a world of like just like a lot more experimentation and entrepreneurship and like agriculture bots and like basically every domain construction defense you just all of a sudden have a much larger number of people who are applying creativity and coming up with ideas and making things that move.
Speaker A: Yeah. And have you seen like with Claude it's like it's one thing just to make the engineer more efficient or bring more people into engineering but then when these agents really run you're getting into you it's just like the iPhone example of you couldn't imagine Instagram
Original English
Yeah. And have you seen like with Claude it's like it's one thing just to make the engineer more efficient or bring more people into engineering but then when these agents really run you're getting into you it's just like the iPhone example of you couldn't imagine Instagram
Speaker B: Yeah. before like the iPhone it's like imagine 2005 on laptops you're like in
Original English
Yeah. before like the iPhone it's like imagine 2005 on laptops you're like in
Speaker A: Yeah. 10 years there's going to be this this app.
Original English
Yeah. 10 years there's going to be this this app.
Speaker B: Where and you can put photos. They're like well the phones don't have have cameras. like, yeah, but it's going to be like social, like what the hell? Like, so like Facebook, it's like, see, it's just hard to hard. And so, we think by lowering that barrier, you're going to get way way more creative autonomy products, right?
Original English
Where and you can put photos. They're like well the phones don't have have cameras. like, yeah, but it's going to be like social, like what the hell? Like, so like Facebook, it's like, see, it's just hard to hard. And so, we think by lowering that barrier, you're going to get way way more creative autonomy products, right?
Speaker A: Yeah. I will definitely decide whether to include this or not. So, my kid is building autonomous bots in um uh Factorio.
Original English
Yeah. I will definitely decide whether to include this or not. So, my kid is building autonomous bots in um uh Factorio.
Speaker B: Oh, nice. Is one of his projects. And so, and but he's he's you know, he's had rolling because the the tool kit's not available yet. So, he's actually training and he's actually he's actually training models.
Original English
Oh, nice. Is one of his projects. And so, and but he's he's you know, he's had rolling because the the tool kit's not available yet. So, he's actually training and he's actually he's actually training models.
Speaker A: Yeah. Uh he's gathering data in the game. Um and uh actually has like a whole army of like bots that he's developed that go.
Original English
Yeah. Uh he's gathering data in the game. Um and uh actually has like a whole army of like bots that he's developed that go.
Speaker B: Yeah. So like and then his mother is like why are you playing that game so much? And he explains of course it's a purely educational process and experience but but it's you know it's the kind of thing. It's like yeah it's like there you know like there's no reason autonomy should be this like uh you know uh obscure difficult you know alchemistic you know uh uh technology. And um and I think not only does that have a huge impact on on society, it also allows people to understand that these systems are not like magic. It's like if I can develop a Roomba for myself in my house on a weekend using Dana, right? Then why then it's not suddenly so scary. And I think that's like that's that's important.
Original English
Yeah. So like and then his mother is like why are you playing that game so much? And he explains of course it's a purely educational process and experience but but it's you know it's the kind of thing. It's like yeah it's like there you know like there's no reason autonomy should be this like uh you know uh obscure difficult you know alchemistic you know uh uh technology. And um and I think not only does that have a huge impact on on society, it also allows people to understand that these systems are not like magic. It's like if I can develop a Roomba for myself in my house on a weekend using Dana, right? Then why then it's not suddenly so scary. And I think that's like that's that's important.
Speaker B: And we can it can it can support people in all kinds of ways that we haven't even imagined yet cuz Yeah. Absolutely.
Original English
And we can it can it can support people in all kinds of ways that we haven't even imagined yet cuz Yeah. Absolutely.
Speaker A: Yeah. Exactly. I mean you think about like uh you know folks with disabilities you know we always think about humanoids as like this very important task of folding laundry which seems to be. So we focus on you know the important task but the when you allow these tools to exist. I mean I I you know we started a tooling company. I mean I feel so importantly that tools are like what separates actually advanced civilizations from you know less advanced civil civilizations. And our our first uh uh mark for the company was a monkeykey's head and then we got a designer who said what this is stupid.
Original English
Yeah. Exactly. I mean you think about like uh you know folks with disabilities you know we always think about humanoids as like this very important task of folding laundry which seems to be. So we focus on you know the important task but the when you allow these tools to exist. I mean I I you know we started a tooling company. I mean I feel so importantly that tools are like what separates actually advanced civilizations from you know less advanced civil civilizations. And our our first uh uh mark for the company was a monkeykey's head and then we got a designer who said what this is stupid.
移动技术与物理AI的应用场景探讨
Speaker A: 现在的技术在移动端变得非常好了,所以出现了一波像Uber、WhatsApp、Snap、Airbnb这样的公司。现在技术正在向物理AI的基础设施发展,那么你有什么用例或公司可以讨论吗?当然,预测未来很困难,但你对哪些领域最感兴趣?比如,我们能谈论什么与快速迭代相对应的东西呢?
Original English
Speaker A: um the technology got got so good in mobile that there was a wave of these companies you know Uber, WhatsApp, Snap you know Airbnb etc. that emerged in quick succession. And so now that the technology is getting there for the infrastructure for physical AI, what are some use cases or companies that you can obviously it's hard to predict the future, but where where are you most excited for? Like what what could we be talking about the equivalent here of in quick succession?
Speaker B: 我的意思是,我想呃中期我们想要Dana,如果不是短期内真的要让人形机器人变得更真实。嗯,比如说家里有几千个任务来自人形机器人和这些公司,我……我如果你跟那些在这些公司工作的人谈,每一步都很困难,收集数据很困难,清洗数据也很困难,训练模型或部署模型也很困难。而我的目标是让一个高中生也能做出一个人形机器人,所以那才是我们的路径,我们认为那里有很多东西,但那是这些显而易见的东西。我认为真正非显而易见的那些东西将……我们会回顾的会变得更有趣。
Original English
Speaker B: I mean I think uh you know midterm we want Dana if not the short term to really you know make humanoids way more real. Uh there's I mean how many it's like a thousand core tasks in a home from uh from humanoids and these companies it's like such I mean I'm if you talk to people who work in these companies it's everything is difficult every step of the way is difficult collecting data is difficult uh you know cleaning that data is difficult training those models or deploying the model is difficult and the bar being I want a high school kid to make a humanoid so that that's our our our path and we think there could be a lot there but that's like these the obvious stuff I think the true nonobvious stuff is going to we will we'll look back will be will be way way more interesting
Speaker A: 还有一些核心要素我们正在整合,对吧?我们让模仿学习更容易实现,让强化学习在结合这些方面更容易实现。嗯,我们有预训练模型可以作为很多事情的基线。世界模型、先进的模拟技术,所有这些都汇集在一起,然后你就会受限于你的创造力,比如你想做什么?如果你把任何一种物理AI任务想起来,它就是你理解世界并操纵某物,而我们现在可以在这个工具中更容易构建它了。我有时觉得人们会问我们,作为一个工具公司,比如你们拿自动驾驶卡车,我们部署自动驾驶卡车,很多自动驾驶卡车公司使用我们的工具。我有时觉得有人会问,哦,你看,和Dana在一起,你打算让所有竞争对手都受益吗?
Original English
Speaker A: and and there's there's some core ingredients that we're bringing together in data, right? We're making it way easier to to actually get imitation learning to work, way easier to make reinforcement learning work in combination with that. Um, we're we have pre-trained models that can be used as a baseline for a lot of things. Um world models, advanced simulation tech, all of these things come together and then you're sort of limited by your creativity like well what what do I want to do? And if you think about any kind of physical AI task as it's it's a you are understanding the world and you're manipulating something and and we can build that that can be built now much more easily in this in this tool and I think sometimes people ask like us being a tooling company and like you take self-driving trucks we deploy self-driving trucks and many of the self-driving trucking companies use our tools I I I think some sometimes people ask oh look you know with Dana are you going to like enable all these competitors that's great
Speaker B: 对。那绝对完全没问题。如果你看看Google和他们对网络应用所做的事情,那里有一个巨大的互联网。Google仍然通过搜索、YouTube和其他网络应用以及其他人们学习并使用开源产品,然后最终转向闭源产品,最终转向风险投资产品。我们认为这里也会发生同样的事情。我曾在一家机器人初创公司工作,你知道的你们认识他们。他们正在进行培训,他们正在训练他们的一只手臂来完成一个特别吸引人的杀手级应用,我想是……
Original English
Speaker B: right >> that's absolutely completely fine if If you look at Google and what Google did to web applications, there was a massive internet. Uh Google still succeeded through, you know, search and YouTube and and and other web apps and other folks learned and used open source products and then ultimately closed source products and ultimately ventureback products. And we think we think this the the same thing could happen here. I was at a robotics startup uh a while back that you you guys know well. Um and they had they were training you know they were doing go through a training process training their one of their arms to do particularly a killer app that I thought was very appealing which was >> picking up dog poop [laughter]
Speaker A: 真的,你知道吗?训练一遍又一遍。区别在于……为什么不让小机器人在你遛狗的时候跟着你走,去捡狗屎呢?是的。我认识一个构建了……我忘了是谁了。他构建了一个小草坪机器人,它会绕着跑,单独捡单个落叶。是的。因为你解决了那个问题。好吧。你耙你的院子,它完全干净了,然后两个小时后有14片落叶,你让小机器人去捡那些落叶。如果开发成本是零的话,人们就会做那件事。我的意思是你们记得早期的iPhone应用吗?当时的爆款是啤酒应用或者排气声应用。如果你想象一下在98年,用Symbian移动系统,你知道的,无论操作系统是什么,我想是Ericson或某个人,那是不可能的。你需要一个像50个人这样的团队来开发Blackberry的那个啤酒应用。所以,我认为类似的事情正在发生。我们真的想成为其中的一部分,我们会实现它。而且如果这让制作比如我觉得仍然是一个……在做一个机器人出租车之前,超级容易。
Original English
Speaker A: >> and so you know I don't know why not right >> why not have the little why not have the little robot follow you around when you walk the dog pick up the poop. Yeah. And I think like like you >> I know somebody who built I forget who it was. Somebody who built a a little lawn robot that would go around and individ pick up individual leaves. >> Yeah. >> Because you got that problem right. Okay. You you rake you you rake your yard. It's completely clean and then like two hours later there's like 14 leaves and you're like >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Send up the little bot to pick up the leaves. >> It's like if development costs are zero then people will do that. I mean you guys remember like the early iPhone apps the hits were like the beer one or the fart app. If you [laughter] imagine that in like Yeah. If you imagine that in 98 with a, you know, with the Symbian mobile, you know, whatever the OS from, I think it was Ericson or somebody, that'd be impossible. You need a team of like 50 people to to develop like the beer thing for the Blackberry. So, I think there's a similar type of thing that's happening. We're, you know, we really want to be a part of that and we're going to enable that. And if it like makes making like I think it still be a while before like making a robo taxi is like super super easy.
Speaker B: 是的。但那会发生。但是,医疗保健领域可以部署的机器人数量,几乎只在医疗保健领域是居家护理。嗯,然后在建筑领域,你知道所有物理特征……就像我们坐在2007年说“我们应该有一个应用商店”,我们想出了八种类型的应用,然后会有个消息应用,然后会有一个摄像头应用。现在你看看应用商店,那里有一个酒店的应用,你可以订餐,从菜单上点餐。
Original English
Speaker B: >> um and then um in um construction um you know all the physical traits >> it's like us sitting in 2007 and saying let's uh we should have an app store what types of apps and we would come up with like a list of eight and then like there'll be a messaging one and then there'll be a camera one and it's like now you look at the app store and it's like you know there's an app for like the hotel you go to and it's like you know to to order, you know, food off the menu
Speaker A: 对。是的,有道理。我们之前谈到了数字AI和物理AI之间的区别。我们曾经暗示过大型语言模型(LLMs),但世界模型现在很流行。你为什么不谈谈它们与物理AI的关系以及我们应该如何思考它们的状态呢?
Original English
Speaker A: >> right >> that's absolutely completely fine if you look at Google and what Google did to web applications, there was a massive internet. Uh Google still succeeded through, you know, search and YouTube and and and other web apps and other folks learned and used open source products and then ultimately closed source products and ultimately ventureback products. And we think we think this the the same thing could happen here. I was at a robotics startup uh a while back that you you guys know well. Um and they had they were training you know they were doing go through a training process training their one of their arms to do particularly a killer app that I thought was very appealing which was >> picking up dog poop [laughter]
Speaker B: 所以,首先,世界模型意味着大约100种不同的事情。我们最近在CVPR上有一个团队,我当时跟他们开玩笑说你可以用多少种不同的方式来定义一个世界模型。但当我们思考世界模型时,我们通常是在模拟的背景下思考它,对吧?是某种……
Original English
Speaker B: >> So, so first off, world models means about 100 different things and we had a team at CVPR recently and and I was joking with them about just how many different ways you can define what what a world model is. But uh when we're thinking about a world model way, we're we're typically thinking about it in the context of of a simulation, right? Something that is effectively >> started as a sim company. Yeah.
Speaker A: 是的。是某种……足够能够代表真实世界,并且在某种程度上具有反应性的东西,可以在这个世界上行动的一个自主智能体,而世界模型对那个自主智能体的行为做出适当的响应。
Original English
Speaker A: >> Maybe uh Peter, I think it's worth being super explicit here. We just go just one level lower. the the you know determinism in simulators kind of the sim tore gap physics based you know rendering all the way to like this generated world.
Speaker B: 是的。我们如何定位在其中?或者……这描述了现状,我想。是的。所以,如果我们将模拟大致来说,对吧?有许多不同的模拟方式,而且更经典的模拟方法是基于物理的,你可以以所有不同的抽象级别分解物理学,你可以在有或没有传感器的情况下进行模拟,它仅仅是身体模拟,还是我们实际上在模拟环境中的光线或者CGI是如何制作的?如果我们真的有技术艺术家,他们会创建资产进入模拟器,来模仿现实世界中的路标并具有你在现实世界中看到的反射性和材料属性,但正如你们所知道,好莱坞正在经历其自身的根本性变化,现在我们也在我们的宇宙中生成同类技术。
Original English
Speaker B: >> Yeah. >> Where do we fit on it or or where you know Yeah. This describe the landscape I think maybe. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, so this is like let's say simulation broadly, right? There's there's so many different ways of doing simulation and so the more classical approaches of simulation very physics based and and you can decompose physics in all different ways and all different levels of abstraction and you can simulate with sensors or without sensors and and is it is just a body simulation or are we actually simulating for example the light in in the environment or the almost think about like the way CGI is done. If we l literally had technical artists and we have technical artists who would create assets which would go in the simulator which would mimic real like road signs and have you know reflectivity and material properties that you would see in the real world but as you guys know Hollywood [clears throat] is going through its own fundamental change and now you've generated uh techn the same thing is happening in our universe as well.
Speaker A: 是的。是的。所以,这有点……在基于物理模拟的终点上,而另一端是纯粹的神经模拟。但在那个光谱内,你可以做很多不同的事情,每一种都有其用途。其中之一是基于高斯(Gaussian)的模拟,对吧?你有一个对真实世界的有效表示,它具有一个3D表示。而且这个3D表示是一致的,这意味着如果你假设我们有一个参考点,比如一个相机,并且那个相机在那个3D世界中移动,因为高斯实际上代表了那个世界的3D几何形状,你将从那里获得非常高质量的输出,那其中有很多价值,而且……
Original English
Speaker A: >> Yeah. >> Yeah. So, so that's sort of on the that's at the far end of physics-based simulation and and then the opposite end is is purely neural simulation. But within that spectrum, there's there's many different things you can do that are each useful in their own right. And so, one of those things is a Gaussian based simulation, right? Where you have uh a a a effectively a representation of the real world that that has a 3D representation. um and that 3D representation is consistent meaning that if if you let's say have some reference point let's say a camera and that camera moves within that 3D world because the Gaussian uh is actually representing the 3D geometry of that world you'll actually get very high quality output from that there's a lot of value in that uh and and that's
关于世界模型与物理AI的讨论
Speaker A: let's say one type of world model but when you go further on that uh on that spectrum into really into neural simulation then you get into these uh where you're actually generating the video feeds you can think a neural network that's actually outputting uh a video as what's actually coming out of the neurons of that and and that can be reactive uh which gives you some very interesting properties.
Original English
let's say one type of world model but when you go further on that uh on that spectrum into really into neural simulation then you get into these uh where you're actually generating the video feeds you can think a neural network that's actually outputting uh a video as what's actually coming out of the neurons of that and and that can be reactive uh which gives you some very interesting properties.
Speaker B: Reactive is in the ego does something in the environment and the other agents respond to the ego.
Original English
Reactive is in the ego does something in the environment and the other agents respond to the ego.
Speaker A: Exactly. Uh however, you're not guaranteed in that reactivity that it's it's accurate. Right. and and now it's a question of well how can I align this this simulation this world model with the real world and the way that the real world would actually react and if you have perfect alignment between the real world and and the world model I think you've just sort of solved the universe roughly right that's impossibly difficult problem um but but as we make progress towards that uh it makes uh training physical AI models much easier because you can do more of that in simulation but the hardest part though is we're always talking about performance, right? So the I like to say the the labs they they have it easy because they they can they can make models that are trillions of parameters and and those models can be super slow and that's fine but we don't have that luxury in physical AI, right? We deal we deal in real time like the actual actual clock real time and so we we have so many milliseconds before we have to do something and and those performance constraints they actually constrain the problem in a lot of ways. So we can have very large models and we do have very large models that are used in the offboard environment but when once you go onboard all of those constraints are very real and now we need to train a much smaller model that has these safety constraints these determinism constraints and uh and that's the hard part about physical it's also the moat right it's it's it is what makes our tooling and and our our competencies uh valuable uh because it's just really hard to meet all of these constraints in in a physical system. When will you which will we get first a perfect a perfectly simulated real world environment for training autonomy autonomous devices or Grand Theft Auto 6? [laughter]
Original English
Exactly. Uh however, you're not guaranteed in that reactivity that it's it's accurate. Right. and and now it's a question of well how can I align this this simulation this world model with the real world and the way that the real world would actually react and if you have perfect alignment between the real world and and the world model I think you've just sort of solved the universe roughly right that's impossibly difficult problem um but but as we make progress towards that uh it makes uh training physical AI models much easier because you can do more of that in simulation but the hardest part though is we're always talking about performance, right? So the I like to say the the labs they they have it easy because they they can they can make models that are trillions of parameters and and those models can be super slow and that's fine but we don't have that luxury in physical AI, right? We deal we deal in real time like the actual actual clock real time and so we we have so many milliseconds before we have to do something and and those performance constraints they actually constrain the problem in a lot of ways. So we can have very large models and we do have very large models that are used in the offboard environment but when once you go onboard all of those constraints are very real and now we need to train a much smaller model that has these safety constraints these determinism constraints and uh and that's the hard part about physical it's also the moat right it's it's it is what makes our tooling and and our our competencies uh valuable uh because it's just really hard to meet all of these constraints in in a physical system. When will you which will we get first a perfect a perfectly simulated real world environment for training autonomy autonomous devices or Grand Theft Auto 6? [laughter]
Speaker B: You know I as long as they keep putting out great trailers. I mean I I watch I feel like I'm getting entertained without paying a dollar and reintroducing to Tom Petty because of [laughter]
Original English
You know I as long as they keep putting out great trailers. I mean I I watch I feel like I'm getting entertained without paying a dollar and reintroducing to Tom Petty because of [laughter]
Speaker A: Will you give us some timelines?
Original English
Will you give us some timelines?
Speaker B: So this for a second. Yeah. Go for it. [laughter] Go for it. Well, no, look, I mean, so the whole thing was the whole thing with Grand Theft Auto is the big innovation was open open world open world sandbox gaming. So, it's a it's a sim it's a simulated city and at least in theory on that spectrum. I mean, we hire so many people out of the video game world on that spectrum. It's absolutely real.
Original English
So this for a second. Yeah. Go for it. [laughter] Go for it. Well, no, look, I mean, so the whole thing was the whole thing with Grand Theft Auto is the big innovation was open open world open world sandbox gaming. So, it's a it's a sim it's a simulated city and at least in theory on that spectrum. I mean, we hire so many people out of the video game world on that spectrum. It's absolutely real.
Speaker A: Well, tell tell us about that. Yeah. What's the spectrum? So I here I this is this is speculation but I think Grand Theft Auto 6 will be perhaps the last major uh realworld video game that's still really developed let's say in that legacy era of traditional computer graphics tooling
Original English
Well, tell tell us about that. Yeah. What's the spectrum? So I here I this is this is speculation but I think Grand Theft Auto 6 will be perhaps the last major uh realworld video game that's still really developed let's say in that legacy era of traditional computer graphics tooling
Speaker B: technical artists and yeah like I think that the Grand Theft Auto 7 will much more likely be like a world model based video game um and where you could imagine as as AI tech evolves here you you have like this this concept of this video game world model And there's there's like some sort of baseline let's say data store uh that represents the real world in somehow and then and then you have a some translation layer that's actually turning that data store into something that you can see and and run around in like it's
Original English
technical artists and yeah like I think that the Grand Theft Auto 7 will much more likely be like a world model based video game um and where you could imagine as as AI tech evolves here you you have like this this concept of this video game world model And there's there's like some sort of baseline let's say data store uh that represents the real world in somehow and then and then you have a some translation layer that's actually turning that data store into something that you can see and and run around in like it's
Speaker A: the game as a consequence could be the real world right as said you could have a complete recreation of the real world in the game this has kind of happened with flight simulators hasn't it isn't the most recent flight simulators are literally it's the entire planet rendered accurately is my understanding at least from the air. Is that right?
Original English
the game as a consequence could be the real world right as said you could have a complete recreation of the real world in the game this has kind of happened with flight simulators hasn't it isn't the most recent flight simulators are literally it's the entire planet rendered accurately is my understanding at least from the air. Is that right?
Speaker B: Yeah. Yeah. And I mean you're really that's where our our bread and butters when we started uh started the business we hired so many people out of the Microsoft flight sim organized it and uh you know but when you fly over you you know whatever New Yorker or when you fly over to Duth in the flight simulator now it is the real city right
Original English
Yeah. Yeah. And I mean you're really that's where our our bread and butters when we started uh started the business we hired so many people out of the Microsoft flight sim organized it and uh you know but when you fly over you you know whatever New Yorker or when you fly over to Duth in the flight simulator now it is the real city right
Speaker A: exactly but there's some tricks that they play there and a lot of that is fidelity you know the real world the more you zoom in
Original English
exactly but there's some tricks that they play there and a lot of that is fidelity you know the real world the more you zoom in
Speaker B: it stays a certain level of fidelity and uh and so the the tricks that you play there is you you basically are uh downsampling very very aggressively and then as you get closer you know then it becomes more more high fidelity where the real world isn't like that. the if you were to try to rebuild the world with this level of fidelity, it would, you know, would take the all the energy of the universe, right? It's it's it's quite complex. And that's probably, by the way, the best argument against us being living in a simulation is among the But of course, and you would say, well, the simulator we're in doesn't follow the laws of physics that we're at that point, how how do we know that the simulator that we're in is rendering all the stuff that we can't see?
Original English
it stays a certain level of fidelity and uh and so the the tricks that you play there is you you basically are uh downsampling very very aggressively and then as you get closer you know then it becomes more more high fidelity where the real world isn't like that. the if you were to try to rebuild the world with this level of fidelity, it would, you know, would take the all the energy of the universe, right? It's it's it's quite complex. And that's probably, by the way, the best argument against us being living in a simulation is among the But of course, and you would say, well, the simulator we're in doesn't follow the laws of physics that we're at that point, how how do we know that the simulator that we're in is rendering all the stuff that we can't see?
Speaker A: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. [laughter] As far as far as I know, everything happening outside this room doesn't even exist.
Original English
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. [laughter] As far as far as I know, everything happening outside this room doesn't even exist.
Speaker B: Yeah. I mean you you know like Buddhism believes this is a different type of podcast. It's like you know when you open your eyes the world is rendered and then you close your eyes the world that's literally religious. [laughter]
Original English
Yeah. I mean you you know like Buddhism believes this is a different type of podcast. It's like you know when you open your eyes the world is rendered and then you close your eyes the world
Speaker A: I don't see why I don't see why it's necessary for it to keep rendering if I'm not there. [laughter]
Original English
I don't see why I don't see why it's necessary for it to keep rendering if I'm not there. [laughter]
Speaker B: Buddhism from first principles. Yeah. Exactly. That's what you should That'll get a lot of clicks. That's what you need to call this. [laughter]
Original English
Buddhism from first principles. Yeah. Exactly. That's what you should That'll get a lot of clicks. That's what you need to call this. [laughter]
Speaker A: Yeah. Well, just go on the timeline topic. You know, we gave us timelines on self-driving cars. What timelines do you want to give us if any on sort of uh you know other interesting things that were worth tracking like perhaps when we'll get laundry folded or uh other you know things that emerge because of humanoid
Original English
Yeah. Well, just go on the timeline topic. You know, we gave us timelines on self-driving cars. What timelines do you want to give us if any on sort of uh you know other interesting things that were worth tracking like perhaps when we'll get laundry folded or uh other you know things that emerge because of humanoid
Speaker B: and I think also maybe just touching a little bit on world models where we see world models going because I think it's it's fundamental to what the work we do.
Original English
and I think also maybe just touching a little bit on world models where we see world models going because I think it's it's fundamental to what the work we do.
Speaker A: True. Yeah. Yeah. So, so to answer the first question, um, so laundry folding, it's uh it's it's not terribly far from being solved to be clear. Uh, and there is a lot of interesting research being
Original English
True. Yeah. Yeah. So, so to answer the first question, um, so laundry folding, it's uh it's it's not terribly far from being solved to be clear. Uh, and there is a lot of interesting research being
Speaker B: and then humanity can rejoice. That's in Proverbs 4:16, [laughter] I think.
Original English
and then humanity can rejoice. That's in Proverbs 4:16, [laughter] I think.
Speaker A: Well, here I I I do think I do think housekeeping is is a killer use case for physically eye, right?
Original English
Well, here I I I do think I do think housekeeping is is a killer use case for physically eye, right?
Speaker B: Peter thinks two that he always talks about in the company. One is housekeeping and it's entertainment. Peter's long on humanoid entertainment.
Original English
Peter thinks two that he always talks about in the company. One is housekeeping and it's entertainment. Peter's long on humanoid entertainment.
Speaker A: Is it like what kind of entertainment I would I would 100% [laughter] agree with. I think entertainment is robotics killer ass. I don't think anybody knows. What do you
Original English
Is it like what kind of entertainment I would I would 100% [laughter] agree with. I think entertainment is robotics killer ass. I don't think anybody knows. What do you
Speaker B: I mean like [laughter] some of these Midwest white guys are really into
Original English
I mean like [laughter] some of these Midwest white guys are really into
Speaker A: I'm just saying what I think I think I just want to know when I go west world. That's all I want.
Original English
I'm just saying what I think I think I just want to know when I go west world. That's all I want.
Speaker B: No, I actually have an entertaining I have a little I have a little a tiny little Chinese robot dog that's just like literally it's just like a little it's just a little and it just like roams around and it just like does
Original English
No, I actually have an entertaining I have a little I have a little a tiny little Chinese robot dog that's just like literally it's just like a little it's just a little and it just like roams around and it just like does
Speaker A: Would you pay to see Circus LA with robots? Yes. [laughter] Yes. I I want to see I want to see kung fu trapeze swinging
Original English
Would you pay to see Circus LA with robots? Yes. [laughter] Yes. I I want to see I want to see kung fu trapeze swinging
Speaker B: spoken by like a compiler's guy here. [laughter] I know. But I want Westworld. I want Westworld.
Original English
spoken by like a compiler's guy here. [laughter] I know. But I want Westworld. I want Westworld.
Speaker A: I mean the the funny thing is I was I was just saying like well people in like the suburbs of Detroit actually that passes the test. I bet you people in Sterling Heights would actually pay to see that. It's actually true.
Original English
I mean the the funny thing is I was I was just saying like well people in like the suburbs of Detroit actually that passes the test. I bet you people in Sterling Heights would actually pay to see that. It's actually true.
Speaker B: I stand corrected. I stand [laughter] corrected. But uh but back on laundry folding for a moment. Um It's it's actually not far from being folded if you remove the time constraint. And so the the trick
Original English
I stand corrected. I stand [laughter] corrected. But uh but back on laundry folding for a moment. Um It's it's actually not far from being folded if you remove the time constraint. And so the the trick
关于人类模仿表演的未来与技术脱钩
Speaker A: 如果你看看最新的研究视频,他们会说像播放到8倍速或者 whatever,对吧?这是为了让你能看懂。
Original English
Speaker A: that's played and if you look at the latest research videos is they'll say like play it at 8x real or whatever, right? And and that's for you to make it watchable.
Speaker B: 所以,问题是什么时候你才能真正达到人类模仿表演的水平?那还有很长的路要走。
Original English
Speaker B: So so the question is when can you actually reach human parody of performance? That's that's further off.
Speaker A: 当你把模型和硬件解耦时,那才是关键。现在硬件可以做到这一点了。以前这曾是一个限制因素。所以现在的硬件非常快、非常准确。
Original English
Speaker A: when you decouple uh models from just the hardware. The hardware can do it now. That used to be a constraint. So the hardware is very fast and accurate now which was actually
Speaker B: 仍然存在过热问题,但这些问题正在被解决。但这离我们想象的未来并不那么遥远,比如……
Original English
Speaker B: there's still overheating issues that are still being dealt with but it's it's not terribly far off like these are sol
Speaker A: 我的意思是,这离我们想象的未来其实很远。你知道我以前是那种……像科幻小说一样的想法,好像没有什么能……
Original English
Speaker A: I mean it's far off from like you know when I was a mechie that was like fantasy like there's like nothing can
Speaker B: 哪部电影对机器人有最现实的未来愿景?
Original English
Speaker B: What's the movie that has the most realistic future vision of robots?
Speaker A: 哦,天呐,《星际穿越》(Bicentennial Man)。
Original English
Speaker A: oh man bysentennial man is it okay yeah he's realistic [laughter] why that one i actually haven't seen
Speaker B: 我喜欢那个场景,我想是《I, Root》的时候,威廉·史密斯跳进车里,然后他你知道……他的搭档在车里,他把车开成手动挡。她会说:“你打算自己开这玩意儿吗?” 就像,你知道,她说:“你疯了吗?你打算自己开这东西吗?” 这就是对直觉的运用,你知道,目标。
Original English
Speaker B: I like I like that scene I think it's iRoot when Will Smith jumps in the car and uh his you know whatever his like accomp's in the car and he's like puts the car in manual She's like, "What are you going to drive this thing yourself?" Like out of like, you know, she's Yeah. She's like, "Are you crazy? What are you going to drive this thing yourself?" Like, that's what we're That's applied to intuition's, you know, like goal. Yeah.
Speaker A: 顺便说一句,我有一段时间没看过这部电影了,大概是从它上映以来。所以我的回忆可能有点不准确了。
Original English
Speaker A: Well get by the way I haven't seen this movie in a long time. Probably since it came out. So, my recollection of probably a bit incorrect.
Speaker B: 别担心,互联网会纠正你。
Original English
Speaker B: Don't worry, the internet will correct you. [laughter]
Speaker A: 但我觉得《星际穿越》有完全自动驾驶汽车。它还有那个家政机器人,你知道吗?由罗宾·威廉姆饰演的,就是那个友好的家伙,会清理和照顾你的孩子等等。这似乎离不远了。
Original English
Speaker A: But I I think Bsentennial Man has uh fully self-driving cars. Uh and it also has the housekeeping robot, okay? which which is played by Robin Williams, and that's it's sort of like the the friendly guy that will uh the friendly robot that will clean up and also babysit your kids and stuff like that. And it seems like it's it's in the not terribly distant future.
Speaker B: 我得到了一个不同的答案。你们看过《月球》(Moon)那部电影吗?
Original English
Speaker B: I got a different answer. You guys ever see that movie uh Sam Rockwell Moon?
Speaker A: 哦,是的。设置很棒。不要看预告片,直接看电影就行。它的前提是:25万英里外。在那里你找到自己是谁。而有一个人在一个由应用直觉、由月球技术运行的能源采集基地工作。
Original English
Speaker A: Oh, yeah. Yeah. The the setup. I don't want to It's a great movie. Don't watch the trailer. Just watch the movie. Uh it's the the premise is the tagline of the movie is 250,000 miles from home. You find who you are. And it's one guy who works in an energy harvesting base run by applied intuition uh run by lunar technologies. [laughter]
Speaker B: 我不想成为《星际穿越》里的那个,我不想成为《银河护卫队》里的那个,或者《刀锋战士》里的那个。不,我不想成为月球技术公司在月球电影里。我想成为这个工作的人,他基本上是自己运行着基地,只是在那里看着那些……当出现一些错误信号的时候。
Original English
Speaker B: I I I don't want to be whale I don't want to be whailing utani. I don't want to be you know that's from uh from the alien franchises and then tar corporation from bladeunner. No no I want to be lunar technologies in the moon franchise one. uh to this one guy who works on this and the base basically runs by itself and he's just there to kind of mind it when things kind of some you know error signal.
Speaker A: 是的。我认为它如此准确的原因是,最先进的人工智能系统只需要偶尔的“接地”(grounding)。它们会运行起来做一些疯狂的事情,然后你就会说:“不,不,停止做那件事。”
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. The the reason why it's it's I think so accurate is because the state-of-the-art for AI systems is like these systems they just need the occasional grounding. They'll just go off and do something crazy and then you say no no stop doing that.
Speaker B: 学习管理系统(LMS)也是那样的。我的意思是,编码机器人就是那样。而且我认为其他原因也让它相当准确,也许现在已经脱钩了,但Kevin Spy是那个AI的……你知道,那个笑脸,他只是在那里有点像在帮助人类辅助,但他也像说:“哦,你看起来很伤心。”
Original English
Speaker B: LMS are like that too. I mean that's that's what coding bots are like right and and the reason other reasons I think it's quite accurate they it's uh maybe uncou now but Kevin Spy is the the AI you know smiley face and he's he's just there to kind of plate the human to to assist but to also like he's like oh you're you seem like you're sad Sam and like you know like that's the the but really it's the one running the base and uh hopefully I mean I shouldn't say we want to be lunar technologies because I don't know that they're quite a positive force in nature in that. But I think massive energy farm that's completely autonomous
Speaker A: 那将是未来。而且我认为每个人对这种事情的反应都是恐惧。这意味着能源成本会大幅下降,这是一种不可思议的积极变化。我记得我在大学时做过一次毕业演讲。
Original English
Speaker A: that's going to be the future. And I and I think everyone like everyone reacts to things like that with like fear. And it's like, guys, that's amazing. That means energy costs go way down. Like that's an incredible positive thing. I think I think the you know uh I just did this commencement speech at my uh my undergrad.
Speaker B: 你被摧毁了吗?
Original English
Speaker B: Did you get uh destroyed?
Speaker A: 没有。你知道吗?不像埃里克·施密特那样。是的,是的,是的。听着,听着,听着。这是真实的故事。我妻子开始看的时候,她说:“我感觉你是在对我大喊大叫。我看不懂这个。”
Original English
Speaker A: No. You know what? I I unlike Eric Schmidt. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Listen, listen listen. My my This is the true story. My wife started watching. She said, "I feel like you're yelling at me. I can't watch [laughter] this."
Speaker B: 所以,我基本上……我的意思是,我不是那种会说哪些技术领导者只是通过“跳船”来避开它的人。我不会说我不想谈论它。我谈论的是这些东西。而且部分是通用汽车研究所(GMI)。没有人像他们这样,我不想对我们从麻省理工学院和斯坦福招募的人评判。但我说 GMI 的人有点不同,他们是……你知道的,他们是那种务实的人。如果你不相信企业所做事情的肤浅看法,你不会去 GMI。企业就是一群人在一起做项目,而且人们在政府、非营利组织中一起做项目,他们都会搞砸。说 AI 企业很糟糕太简单了。你也不能说另一面是会变得很棒。所以你有一个角色可以扮演。
Original English
Speaker B: So, I I I basically I mean I I don't I'm not like I don't I don't I'm not going to say which tech leaders who just basically avoid it by like punting and saying I'm not going to talk about it. I I talk about this stuff. And partly it's the General Motors Institute. No one's like these these are I I don't want to I don't I don't I don't want to throw judgment on you know the people we recruit out of out of MIT and Stanford but I say GMI people are a little different and they're like you know they're like pragmatic people they under they you know you don't go to a place like GMI if you believe a superficial view of what corporations do. Corporations are just people working on projects together and by the way people working on projects together in government people working projects together in nonprofits they all screw up. It's and so it's it's too simple to say AI corporations are are terrible. This also you can't say the other side which is like it'll all be great. So you have a role to play.
Speaker A: 这基本上就是我的信息,这就是我的信息。我认为如果你感觉……如果我觉得从自动驾驶卡车和汽车带来的丰裕感,以及人们不会死亡这个事实是惊人的,但你也获得了更低的能源效率等等。如果所有这些东西仍然不能满足你作为一个人对恐惧的担忧,那取决于你的责任去真正了解这项技术。你不能只是说:“我害怕它,我的反应就是关掉它。”这不是那样。这只是……而且我不是为了说我们正在和中国竞争,但存在一种困惑。
Original English
Speaker A: That's basically what you know what my what my message is and it's that's that's the case. I think if you feel like if if it if the the of the the I think the obvious uh you know uh abundance that comes from self-driving truck self-driving cars and the fact that people don't die which is amazing but then you also get this efficiency of cheaper energy etc. If all those things don't still satisfy your your fear you as a person it's up to your responsibility to really learn about that technology. You you you can't just say, "Well, I'm afraid of it and my reaction is shut it down." That's not that's simply it's the uh and I don't say this just to say that we're competing with the Chinese, but there's a confusion.
Speaker B: 说出这种困惑的人,不可能阻止太阳。
Original English
Speaker B: The saying by confusion is no hand can block the sun.
Speaker A: 嗯。而且太阳就是技术进步。如果我们作为一个社会不拥抱技术进步,我们将被抛在后面。
Original English
Speaker A: Mhm. And the sun is technological progress. And if we as a society don't embrace technological progress, we will be left behind.
Speaker B: 别人会做这件事的。也许不是中国。谁知道呢?也许是用户或你知道,是另一个国家正在意识到:“嘿,我的公民正在受苦,我将使用这项技术来消除他们。”说实话,因为我们生活在一个如此伟大的社会中,我们可以拥有这些……
Original English
Speaker B: Somebody else is going to do it. And it might it's not the Chinese. Who knows? Maybe it's a Usuzbck or you know it's another country that is is recognizing hey my citizens are suffering and I'm going to use this technology to remove them. It is honestly it's because we live in such a great society that we can have these like
Speaker A: 我会说,像“愚蠢的对话”,仍然有那些无法获得食物的人。是的。而且如果有人在辩论我的时候立即反驳你,他们会说:“食物有很多。是资本主义体系没有提供,不,不,不。让我们非常具体地说。食物很多,但把食物送到那些人那里很困难。”
Original English
Speaker A: I would say stupid conversations like there still are people who don't can get food. Yeah. And and and and someone will immediately quip if they were debating me, they would say, "Well, there's plenty of food. It's it's the capitalist system that doesn't No, no, no. Let's let's be very specific. There's plenty of food, but getting that food to those people is difficult."
Speaker B: 所以,这意味着我们应该让机器人更快地把食物送到他们那里。
Original English
Speaker B: So, that means we should let robots get that food to them faster.
Speaker A: 这就是这样。所以我想,像我们这些技术人员,我想有时候我们会有一种倾向,就是说把这些人抛在后面。我认为你必须带他们一起走。你必须向他们解释。但我们也必须像对待成年人一样对待他们,如果我解释了两次之后你还是没弄懂,那就别指望你能弄懂。所以存在一个中间地带。不是每个人都是白痴,我们不应该只是成为技术会变得完美无缺的。存在一个中间地带。让我们进行一次这样的对话,然后我们向前迈进,让社会变得更好,然后结果会证明一切。
Original English
Speaker A: That's just that's just how it is. So, I think I'm I'm and I think like we we we as like technologists, I think sometimes we, you know, it's I think an inclination just to say leave these people behind. I think you have to bring them along. You have to explain it to them. But we also have to treat folks like adults and say if you don't get it after I explain it a couple times then you just don't get it. So there's like a middle ground. It's not everyone's an idiot and every or we should just be technology will just be perfect perfect. There's a middle ground. Let's have that conversation to a point and then we just move forward and we make society better and then the results show it.
Speaker B: 我想说,仍然有那些无法获得食物的人。是的。而且……
Original English
Speaker B: I would say stupid conversations like there still are people who don't can get food. Yeah. And and and someone will immediately quip if they were debating me, they would say, "Well, there's plenty of food. It's it's the capitalist system that doesn't No, no, no. Let's let's be very specific. There's plenty of food, but getting that food to those people is difficult."
Speaker A: 所以,这意味着我们应该让机器人更快地把食物送到他们那里。
Original English
Speaker A: So, that means we should let robots get that food to them faster.
对社会和AI的展望
Speaker A: 那么这并不意味着一切都会完美,你不能把同样的事情推导到人工智能上。这不代表一切都会变得完美,但总的来说,它肯定会更好。这大致是我没有喝酒的时候开场演讲的内容。[笑声] 马克和那些家伙在嘲笑,所以他们就剪掉了那部分。埃里克在嘲笑,他扔东西,他们就把它剪掉了。
Original English
Speaker A: for society. And so that doesn't mean everything is perfect and you can't extrapolate that same thing with, you know, AI. Doesn't mean everything is going to be perfect, but net net it's definitely going to be better. That's roughly what my commencement speech was without the booze. [laughter] They Mark and these guys were booing so they just cut it out. Eric was booing. He's throwing stuff and they just edited it out.
Speaker B: 你之前提到了日本市场。你为什么不简要谈谈一下全球雄心以及这些技术如何相互作用,以及我们在这里在做什么?
Original English
Speaker B: You mentioned uh you the Japan market earlier. Why don't you talk briefly about sort of the global ambitions and how these technologies you know interplay and and what we're doing here?
Speaker A: 我认为,尤其是在美国,从商业模式来看,我们仍然是最先进的。对于像应用直觉这样的公司来说,我们是一个极其全球化的公司。我们和每个人都合作,呃,除了我们在中国没有办公室,但实际上全球其他地方的每个人都有。而且我们是一家横向的公司。我们是一家技术提供商。我认为我认为更多硅谷的公司可以利用我们所做的一些事情,也就是与当地经济协同工作,随着主权AI变得越来越真实。我们必须建立能够考虑到这些因素的业务。顺便说一句,我们不是第一个做这个的人。如果你看看美国的历史,你读一下标准石油的历史,你会看到这就是……这是……那是公司历史的样子。你要进行国际合作。RAMCO 不是一家随机的公司,对吧?你是根据当时的真实地缘政治现实来建立的。所以我想你知道我们应对得相当好。我住在日本,我住在德国,我住在迪拜。而且我出生在巴基斯坦,我认为这也影响了我们的公司。彼得只住在密歇根(笑声)和这里,但他是一个德国人。所以,所以我觉得我们天生就更关注全球,而且在我同时在谷歌和YC的时候,我总是惊讶于这些公司是多么……有点近视,只是总是在盯着市场,那就在30年之内,你知道,从旧金山到旧金山之间,这就像……实际上市场真的很大。我认为物理AI的本质是物理性的,我认为我们必须是一家非常国际化的公司,我认为我们一直很成功地做了一个非常非常你懂的,非常国际化。是的。酷。我想这是一个很好的总结点。
Original English
Speaker A: So I think uh America particularly is still uh the most advanced in terms of when you take account the business model. The second thing for a company like applied intuition, we're an extremely global company. We work with everybody uh uh uh uh minus we don't have an office in China but really everyone else on the globe. Uh and we're a horizontal company. We're a technology provider. And I think we I think more Silicon Valley companies I think can employ a little bit of what we do which is work very I would say collaboratively with the local economies as sovereign AI becomes more of a real thing. We have to uh you know build businesses that take that into account. By the way, we're not the first ones to do this. If you look at the history of America, you read the history of Standard Oil, you'll see that this is this is that was the history of companies. You'd work internationally. A RAMCO is not a random company, right? you you build based on the real geopolitical realities of the time. And uh so I think you know we've I think navigated it quite well. I've lived you know in Japan, I lived in Germany, I lived in Dubai. So also being Pakistani by birth, I think that's also influenced our company. Peter's only lived in Michigan [laughter] and here but he is uh a German. So, so but so I think innately we're more we think about the globe more and I think when I was at both at Google and at YC I was always surprised at how uh kind of almost myopic the companies are just always looking at the market that's just like within the 30 you know between San Jose and San Francisco it's like actually the market is really big I think physical AI the nature of it being physical I think we we have to be a very international company and I think we've had a lot of success being a very very you know being international. Yeah. Cool. I think it's a good place to wrap.
Speaker C: 好的。彼得·卡瑟,非常感谢你来到播客,恭喜你和达纳一起推出了大项目。
Original English
Speaker C: Okay. Peter Casser, thanks so much for coming on the podcast and congrats on big launch with Dana.
Speaker D: 是的,谢谢你们邀请我们。
Original English
Speaker D: Yeah, thanks for having us.
Speaker E: 太棒了。很高兴见到你。
Original English
Speaker E: Awesome. Great to see you.
Speaker F: 很好。
Original English
Speaker F: Great.