市场收盘:感恩节前市场三连涨,AI与降息预期提振情绪 Amit Kukreja 2025-11-26

市场概览:感恩节前夕的三连涨

大家好,欢迎回到《市场收盘》节目。

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Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close.

这是本周最后一次市场收盘,因为明天就是感恩节了。

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This is the final market close of the week as tomorrow is Thanksgiving.

感谢大家的到来。我看到成千上万的评论说我迟到了一分钟,但我来了,我们正在直播,今天我们以一个上涨日结束本周。

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Thank everybody for being here. I see the thousands of comments that I'm one minute late. I'm here. We're live and we are ending out the week today on a green day.

我们连续三天上涨,这真是太好了。

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We got three green days in a row. Very nice to see.

我们已经很久没有连续三天上涨了。

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It has been a long time since we've had three green days in a row.

标普500指数上涨约1%,具体为0.93%,达到681.32点。

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S&P 500 right here is up about 1%, 0.93%, 681.32.

早上开盘时在678-679点区间,突破了680点,现在看起来我们将在680点上方收盘,这非常令人欣慰。

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In the morning, it kind of started off in that 678-679 range, broke through 680 and now it does look like we are going to get that close above 680 which is very nice to see.

主要资产与个股表现

因此,很多资产都在上涨。比特币今天首次触及90,000美元,这是几周以来的第一次,或者说是一周以来的第一次。

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As a result, you got a lot of things moving upwards. Bitcoin touched 90,000 today for the first time in a couple weeks or for the first time in a week.

看到比特币从上周的80,000美元涨到现在的90,000美元,真是太棒了。

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But nice to see Bitcoin at the point where it was at 80,000 last week. Now it's at 90,000. So that's really cool to see.

以太坊也突破了3,000美元,我们仍然保持在3,000美元以上。

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Ethereum as well broke above 3,000. We are still holding above 3,000.

这使得BMR(一家公司代码)今天表现出色,BMR今天上涨了9.5%,昨天上涨了5%,过去几天累计上涨了15%。

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That is what has led to BMR having as good of a day as it's having. BMR right there up 9.5% on the day after being up 5% yesterday, up 15% over the past couple days.

Amcor(一家包装公司)上涨4%,Meta(Meta Platforms, Inc.: Facebook的母公司)今天稍作喘息。

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Amcor is up 4%. You have Meta that's slightly taking a little bit of a breather today.

Rocket Labs(一家航空航天制造商)下跌约1%,Weeble(一家金融科技公司)上涨9%,Roblox(一家在线游戏平台)上涨2%。

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Rocket Labs down about 1%. Weeble's up 9%. Roblox is up 2%.

Novo(一家制药公司)上涨3%,AMD(Advanced Micro Devices: 一家半导体公司)上涨4%。

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Novo's up 3%. AMD is up 4%.

当然,Hoodie(Robinhood Markets, Inc.: 一家金融服务公司,股票代码HOOD)今天表现非常出色,上涨了11.2%。

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And of course Hoodie ended up having just an incredible day. 11.2%.

你知道,昨天有消息称Robinhood正在收购自己的衍生品交易所并为预测市场(Prediction Markets: 参与者对未来事件结果进行交易的市场)建立清算所,我当时认为这是看涨的,我认为这很重要,我认为这有意义。

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And you know, when the news came out yesterday that Robin Hood was acquiring their own derivatives exchange and creating a clearing house for prediction markets, I thought it was bullish. I thought it was important. I thought it mattered.

我不知道市场会说:“我们不在乎加密货币发生了什么,我们不在乎更广泛的市场发生了什么。我们关心的是Robinhood正在这里基本上摆脱中间商,做他们对股票所做的事情,那就是垂直整合。”

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I did not know the market would say, "We don't care what's going on in crypto. We don't care what's going on in the broader market. We care that Robin is essentially getting rid of the middleman here and doing what they did with stocks, which is vertically integrating."

他们对加密货币也做了同样的事情。

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Same thing they did with crypto.

因此,昨天你听到的那个公告,Vlad(Vlad Tenev: Robinhood的联合创始人兼首席执行官)大约一小时前也发了推文,这也是Hoodie今天获得动力的原因。

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And as a result, that announcement that you had yesterday, Vlad tweeted about it about an hour ago, also is why Hood is getting the momentum that it's getting today.

这也有道理。它之所以获得溢价,就价格走势而言,是因为如果他们能够不再为每份合约支付两美分,然后放弃50%的收入,即使只保留额外一美分的25%,那也会显著增加收益。

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I mean, it makes sense as well. The reason it's getting a premium in terms of like the price action is because if they're able to not do two cents per contract and then give away 50% of that revenue and keep even 25% of that additional cent, that dramatically increases the earnings updates.

如果你认为预测市场的交易量会增长,从我们看到的所有数据来看,过去一年有90亿份合约,仅10月份就有25亿份,这变得非常有吸引力,这也是Robinhood今天获得一些动力的原因。

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And if you think the volume of growth is going to be there for prediction markets which from everything we've seen 9 billion contracts in the past year 2.5 billion in October alone and that becomes very very very compelling and that's why Robin Hood is getting some momentum today.

是的,市场周五会开放。我周五不会直播,我会和家人在一起,但那将是相对清淡的一天。

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So yes markets are open on Friday. I won't be live on Friday. I will be with family but it's going to be a relatively light day.

我们将有半天交易,下午1点收盘。

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We're going to have a half day. It'll be closing at 1 pm.

所以今天的价格走势,也许周五我们会看到一些不同的价格走势,无论是上涨还是下跌,但这对于本周末来说是重要的一天,看看我们能否保持上涨,看起来我们正在保持上涨。

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So the price action for today, I mean maybe there's some different price action we see on Friday to the upside or downside, but this is kind of the big day for the end of the week to see if we can hold on to the green and it seems like we are holding on to the green.

Koshi(一家预测市场平台)的估值是110亿美元,而今天Hoodie的市值上涨了110亿美元。

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Koshi's valuation is 11 billion and today's hood market cap went up 11 billion.

你知道,我认为今天有很多人对此提出质疑。

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You know, I think there was a lot of people today questioning there.

我实际上找到了一些专门关注这方面的人,他们甚至专门为预测市场制作新闻通讯,他们撰写关于整个预测市场行业的内容。

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I actually found some people that specifically focus on there, there are people making entire newsletters off prediction markets like they write about the entire industry that is the prediction market.

所以我开始订阅了其中一些人的内容,因为我对此越来越感兴趣,他们中的很多人都在质疑Koshi是否应该值110亿美元,因为如果你没有垂直整合,而你只有营销,就像Koshi所拥有的那样,那么实际的预测市场本身就是一种商品,或者至少正在商品化,那你还剩下什么?

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So, I started subscribing to a couple of these people as I've been getting more into it and a lot of them are questioning if Kali should be worth 11 billion because if you're not vertically integrated and all you have is marketing, which is what Kali has, the actual prediction market itself is a commodity or at least it's becoming commoditized, what do you have?

所以,这就是为什么我认为市场正在给Hoodie更高的溢价,这也是我们看到更多动力的原因。

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And so, that's why I think the markets are giving a heavier premium to hood and that's why we're seeing a little bit more momentum.

宏观经济数据与美联储降息预期

今天我们看到了一些令人兴奋的事情,还有一些其他的宏观数据要告诉大家,然后我们今天有Tom Lee(Fundstrat Global Advisors的联合创始人兼研究主管)的观点。

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So, some exciting stuff that we saw today, a couple other macro stats to give you guys and then we do have Tom Lee who was on today.

所以,我们将在收盘后看看他和他的想法。

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So, we'll take a look at him and his thoughts after we get into the close.

保证金债务持续走高。

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Margin debt continues to go higher.

10月份的保证金债务为572亿美元,创下1.2万亿美元的纪录。

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October margin debt 57.2 billion at a record 1.2 trillion.

现在,11月份在加密货币和股票市场背景下,是一个去杠杆化事件。

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Now, November was a deleveraging event in the market in the context of crypto and equities.

你可以想象,很多人可能降低了他们的保证金风险敞口,要么是因为他们不得不这样做,要么是因为他们想避免追加保证金。

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And you would imagine a lot of people probably brought down their margin exposure either because they had to or because they wanted to prevent margin calls.

所以,我们将看看11月份的数据会发生什么。

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So, we'll see what happens in the November numbers.

但10月份显示保证金债务持续上升。

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But October showed that margin debt was continually going up and to the right.

也许这也是11月份市场波动较大的原因。

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Maybe that's also the reason why November was a little bit choppy.

但在过去六个月里,保证金债务飙升了约39%,这是自2000年以来最大的增幅。

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But over the last six months, margin debt has surged about 39%, the biggest jump since the year 2000.

所以,人们仍在拿出大量的资金来购买股票。

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So, people are still taking out tons and tons of capital to be able to buy stocks.

这在某些获得更多动力的股票背景下也很有道理。

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And that also makes a lot of sense in the context of what we're seeing for some of these equities that are getting some more momentum.

现在,再说说标普500指数,关于标普指数有一点需要记住,那就是它在11月份下跌了4.4%。

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Now, again, the S&P 500, one thing to remember about the S&P is that it was down 4.4% in November.

我认为它最低跌至4.4%。我们从那个低点上涨了3.5%。

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I think the lowest it got to was down 4.4%. We are up 3 and a half% from that 4.4%.

所以你谈论的是标普500指数相当长一段时间以来最大幅度的盘中反转,或者我应该说月内反转,尤其是在11月份。

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So you're talking about one of the largest intraday reversals or I should say intra-month reversals on the S&P 500 in a pretty long time, especially in the month of November.

11月份通常是看涨的,但显然这个11月份相对波动。

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November tends to be bullish, but obviously this November was relatively choppy.

我们距离历史高点不到1.5%,这相当令人难以置信。

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And the fact that we are less than 1.5% away from all-time highs is pretty incredible. It's pretty freaking incredible.

再次,如果我们收盘上涨,这将是本月标普500指数最大的反转,本月曾下跌4.4%。

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And again, if we close positive, this will be the largest reversal for this month for the S&P 500, which was down at 4.4% for the month.

所以,年底达到7,000点的问题开始浮出水面。

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So 7,000 end of year is starting to come up as a question.

我们稍后会听听Tom Lee的看法。

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We'll get Tom Lee's thoughts on it in a little bit.

他仍然认为这是可能的,只是鉴于我们过去几周所经历的一切,现在情况变得更加微妙。

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He still thinks that it is possible. It's just now a little bit more nuanced given everything that we dealt with over the past couple of weeks as well.

这是高盛的更多数据。

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Here's some more data from Goldman Sachs.

我早上稍微展示过,或者至少提到过,但这是图表,可以巩固这一点。

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I showed this a little bit in the morning, or at least I mentioned it, but here's the chart to kind of solidify this.

对冲基金在11月21日和24日(即过去一周)录得自5月以来最大的两天美国股票净买入。

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Hedge funds recorded their largest two-day net purchase of US equity since May on November 21st and the 24th, which was over the past week.

这标志着过去两年中最大的两天买入期之一。

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This marked one of the biggest two-day buying periods over the last two years.

单一股票和宏观产品,如指数期货和ETF(Exchange Traded Fund: 交易所交易基金),占净名义买入的56%。

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Single stocks and macro products such as index futures and ETFs reflected 56% of net notional buying.

信息技术(IT)部门引领整体活动,也就是说市场资金流向了科技股,其中最强劲的买入发生在半导体、技术以及硬件和通信设备领域。

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IT sector led overall activity, aka the market went into tech, and the strongest buying was in semiconductors, technology, and hardware and communication equipment.

对冲基金似乎积极抄底,这令人非常兴奋,可以看到过去几天出现的上涨势头。

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Hedge funds seems like they aggressively bought the dip, which is very exciting to kind of see the momentum that has taken place over the past couple of days.

顺便说一下,10年期国债收益率,哇,我们实际上低于4%了。

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The 10-year, by the way, the Treasury. Wow, we're actually under four.

这真是令人难以置信。市场上涨,人们却在购买债券。

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That's pretty incredible, dude. Market's green and people are buying bonds.

我认为这基本上意味着市场认为美联储将会降息。

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I think that that's the market pretty pretty much saying we think the Fed's going to cut.

我没想到10年期国债收益率今天会跌破4%。这太不可思议了。

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I did not expect the 10-year to actually dip under four today. That is incredible.

所以,人们正在购买债券,导致收益率下降。

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So, people are buying bonds causing those yields to come down.

降息的可能性是我今天见过的最高水平。

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Rate cut probabilities highest I've seen them today.

早上是82%,现在是84.9%。

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In the morning, it was at 82. We are at 84.9.

我们今天早上确实得到了一个相当糟糕的PMI(Purchasing Managers' Index: 采购经理人指数)数据,结果却是好消息,因为它意味着我们可能需要扩张而不是收缩,这将支持降息的论点。

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We did get a pretty crappy PMI this morning, which ended up being good news because it means we're likely going to need to expand instead of contract, which would make the argument for a rate cut.

今天早上的首次申请失业救济人数为216,000人。

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And jobs claims this morning came in at 216,000.

市场预期为222,000人。

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The market expected 222,000.

这实际上是我们近四个月来首次申请失业救济人数的最低平均水平。

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It's actually the lowest average we've seen for jobs claims in about four months.

所以,劳动力市场虽然正在走弱,但并不糟糕。

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So, labor market not horrible even though it is weakening.

美联储降息的可能性几乎达到90%。

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Fed probabilities almost 90% for a rate cut.

10年期国债收益率低于4%,这对于30年期抵押贷款利率下降非常重要,这将有助于解锁房地产市场。

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The 10-year under 4% which is very important for those 30-year mortgages to come down which would help unlock the housing market.

股票市场正在收复相当一部分失地。

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And you got equities that are recovering a decent chunk of what they lost.

然后比特币达到了90,000美元。

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And then you got Bitcoin that hit 90,000.

所以,我想首要问题是我们是否已经触底?

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So, I guess the number one question is have we bottomed?

如果已经触底,那么我们看到的一些价格,比如Hoodie的100美元,Nvidia(NVIDIA Corporation: 一家图形处理器和人工智能芯片制造商)的169美元,SoFi(SoFi Technologies, Inc.: 一家个人金融公司)的23美元,也许这些价格在今年剩余时间里将不复存在,这对于那些抓住机会抄底的人来说显然是非常有益的。

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And if we have, then maybe some of the prices we've seen, Hood at 100, Nvidia 169, SoFi at 23, maybe those prices are gone for the rest of the year, which would obviously be very productive for people who took advantage and bought the tip.

以太坊在3,222美元,AMD在214美元,Google(Alphabet Inc.: Google的母公司)在320美元。

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Ethereum right there at 3,222, AMD at 214, Google right there at 320.

Google今天也只是小幅下跌,下跌了1%。

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That's also barely down in the day, down by 1%.

然后比特币略低于90,000美元。

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Then Bitcoin just under 90,000.

SoFi在哪里?我记得是28.50美元。

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Where is SoFi? I think it was at 28.50.

SoFi 28.63美元。好的,所以今天至少上涨了1%。

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SoFi 28.63. Okay, so that's still up at least 1% on the day.

然后Tesla(特斯拉)呢,我们达到420美元了吗?哇,425美元。

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And then Tessy, did we get 420? Wow, 425.

过去几个小时我没看特斯拉。425美元。

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Haven't looked at Tesla for the past couple hours. 425.

考虑到几天前还在410美元,特斯拉的涨幅非常惊人。

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That's a hell of a move on Tesla given that it was at 410 a couple of days ago.

Broadcom(博通公司: 一家半导体和软件公司),天哪,它正在逼近400美元。

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Broadcom, oh my goodness, that's pushing 400.

Broadcom 397美元。这是一个新的历史高点。

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Broadcom 397. That's a new all-time high.

399美元是52周高点,所以非常接近。

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399 was the 52 week high, so it's very close.

LAR(一家公司代码)今天小幅上涨。Nebas(一家公司代码)今天也表现出色。

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LAR is up a little bit on the day. Nebas also had a great day as well.

告诉我今天有没有人抄底买入任何东西,或者你是否利用了,我的意思是,实际上并没有下跌,但如果你今天只是继续加仓,或者你平仓了一些头寸并获利了结。

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Let me know if anyone bought the dip on anything today or if you took advantage on I mean there wasn't really a dip but if you kind of just continued to add today or if you trimmed any positions and took some profits right here.

Nebas今天上涨7.3%,达到95.38美元。

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Neb's right there up 7.3% 95.38 on the day.

然后Coreweave(一家云基础设施公司)上涨5%。Cipher(一家公司代码)也上涨9.3%。

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And then you had Coreweave up 5%. Cipher as well 9.3%.

好的,所以所有的数据中心相关股票都在收复过去几天失去的很多。

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All right so all the data center plays getting back a lot of what they lost over the past couple days.

Amazon(亚马逊)相对持平。

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Amazon's been relatively flat.

我认为它曾达到232美元左右的峰值。

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I think it peaked at like 232.

Amazon在230或229美元。好的,是的,亚马逊持平。

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Amazon is at 230 229. All right. Yeah, Amazon being flat.

投资策略讨论与个股分析

我看到很多Meta和Zscaler(一家云安全公司)。

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See a lot of metas. I see a lot of zscalers.

Amit,这里卖出备兑看涨期权(Covered Calls: 一种期权策略,投资者卖出其已持有的股票的看涨期权)危险吗?

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Uh emit are covered calls dangerous here. You know, it's a great question.

这是一个很好的问题。

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It's it's hard to if I Okay, my best answer to this and I think a lot of people would agree with this is sell very very out of the money low delta calls.

我对此最好的回答,我认为很多人会同意,是卖出非常非常虚值且Delta值(Delta: 期权价格对标的资产价格变化的敏感度)低的看涨期权。

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So, if you think hoods run up too much, I wouldn't sell a 135 call. I would sell like a 150 call.

所以,如果你认为Hoodie涨得太多了,我不会卖出135美元的看涨期权,我会卖出像150美元的看涨期权,在短期内。

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In a short time frame, you know, because so because it would have to really make a move for you to get called away.

你知道,因为它必须真正大幅上涨,你才会被行权。

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Or if you think this run is extended and Hood's going to top out around here and, you know, come back down to the 115s, then obviously selling like a 132 134 call makes sense.

或者如果你认为这次上涨已经过度,Hoodie将在这里见顶,然后跌回115美元左右,那么显然卖出132或134美元的看涨期权是有道理的。

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I just momentum is on the side of the bulls again and you got a lot of things that are lining up like that rate cut that could be very effective.

我只是觉得,动能再次站在多头一边,而且有很多因素正在配合,比如可能非常有效的降息。

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So I would be a bit hesitant to sell calls going into the month of December and if you would do it, I think it would be very very low delta OTM calls.

所以我对在12月份卖出看涨期权会有点犹豫,如果你要这样做,我认为应该是非常非常低Delta值的OTM(Out of The Money: 虚值)看涨期权。

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I see Celsius, Irene, Hood, Oscar.

我看到Celsius(一家加密货币借贷平台),Irene(一家公司代码),Hoodie,Oscar(Oscar Health, Inc.: 一家健康保险公司)。

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Oscar got some momentum today as well.

Oscar今天也获得了一些动力。

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Oscar, wow, 8.8% recovering a lot of the drop that it had a couple days ago.

Oscar,哇,上涨8.8%,收复了几天前的大部分跌幅。

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The reason Oscar is up is although that ACA subsidy is not fully confirmed, and this actually I missed this news in the pre-market.

Oscar上涨的原因是,尽管ACA补贴(Affordable Care Act subsidy: 根据《平价医疗法案》提供的医疗保险补贴)尚未完全确认,而这条消息我实际上在盘前错过了。

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This explained a little bit better why Oscar was up, Piper Sandler said Oscar can grow market share and profitability even if advanced or enhanced advanced premium tax credits expire at the end of 2025.

这更好地解释了Oscar为何上涨,Piper Sandler(一家投资银行和金融服务公司)表示,即使高级或增强型高级保费税收抵免在2025年底到期,Oscar也能增加市场份额和盈利能力。

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So basically they're saying even without the ACA subsidies we think they're going to be okay.

所以他们基本上是说,即使没有ACA补贴,他们认为Oscar也会没问题。

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They upgraded them from 13 to 25 and they upgraded them from neutral to overweight.

他们将其评级从13美元上调至25美元,并从“中性”上调至“增持”。

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So that's a really big upgrade from a pretty reputable firm on Oscar without the need for ACA subsidies basically highlighting look we think the stock is really undervalued and so that's why that stock made a move.

所以,这是一家相当有声望的公司对Oscar的重大评级上调,基本上强调了即使不需要ACA补贴,他们也认为该股票被严重低估了,这就是该股票上涨的原因。

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I see BMR. I see Meta. I see a lot of metas. I see some Rocket Lab, Zscaler, CleanSpark, Zeta, Cipher.

我看到BMR,我看到Meta,我看到很多Meta。我看到一些Rocket Lab,Zscaler,CleanSpark(一家比特币挖矿公司),Zeta(一家公司代码),Cipher。

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Um, Oracle. Oracle did get back above 200.

Oracle(甲骨文公司)确实回到了200美元以上。

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Where is Oracle? Right here. I think we're at 205. Oracle right here 205.30.

Oracle在哪里?就在这里。我认为我们在205美元。Oracle就在这里,205.30美元。

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That's up 4.3%. Fell to 185 yesterday.

上涨4.3%。昨天跌到185美元。

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So, that one making a recovery as well.

所以,它也在复苏。

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Rivian, have not looked at this in a second. Rivian right here. Wow. 4.4%.

Rivian(一家电动汽车制造商),我有一会儿没看它了。Rivian就在这里。哇。上涨4.4%。

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Rivian had a pretty good earnings last week and got a move.

Rivian上周的财报相当不错,并有所上涨。

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So, Rivian right here holding on to that Robin. It looks like we're going to get that 128 close.

所以,Rivian在这里保持着上涨。看起来我们将收于128美元。

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Maybe we get 127.50, but would be very nice to see 128.16 on the day.

也许是127.50美元,但看到今天收于128.16美元会非常好。

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BMR, that's up 9.3%. And then Ethereum 3,270.

BMR上涨9.3%。然后以太坊3,270美元。

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Misti continues to get hit.

Misti(MicroStrategy Inc.的股票代码,一家持有大量比特币的商业智能公司)继续受到打击。

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Uh, so Misti to me is just going to be a tax loss this year.

所以对我来说,Misti今年将只是一个税务亏损。

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It was an experiment. Unfortunately, Bitcoin didn't work out, so Micro Strategy didn't work out.

那是一个实验。不幸的是,比特币没有成功,所以MicroStrategy也没有成功。

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Uh, someone asked, "What are you doing with your Misti?" Yeah, it's going to be a tax loss.

有人问:“你对你的Misti怎么办?”是的,那将是一个税务亏损。

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I mean, it's 500 shares. Wasn't meant to be the like I know a lot of people use it as as an income strategy.

我的意思是,那是500股。它并不是,我知道很多人把它用作收入策略。

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For me, it was just like, hey, maybe this thing makes sense from a **YieldMax**(一种收益增强型ETF产品) perspective.

对我来说,它只是像,嘿,也许从YieldMax(YieldMax: 一种通过卖出备兑看涨期权来产生收入的ETF产品)的角度来看,这东西有意义。

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And I think again, YieldMax is not necessarily the worst type of fund in the world because the Nvidia ones, the Hood ones, the Palenter ones are doing well.

我再次认为,YieldMax不一定是世界上最糟糕的基金类型,因为Nvidia、Hoodie、Palantir(Palantir Technologies Inc.: 一家大数据分析公司)相关的都在表现良好。

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It's just Bitcoin absolutely the bet and as a result, so did Micro Strategy.

只是比特币绝对是赌注,结果MicroStrategy也是如此。

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So Misti did not work out.

所以Misti没有成功。

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Now, if you're knee-deep in Misti and you're legit using it as income, I don't know if you take the tax loss here because if you believe in Bitcoin and Bitcoin comes back, Micro Strategy comes back, then Misti should come back.

现在,如果你深陷Misti并且你确实将其用作收入,我不知道你是否会在这里承担税务亏损,因为如果你相信比特币,并且比特币回归,MicroStrategy回归,那么Misti也应该回归。

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The problem is Misti is going to have a lot of **NAV侵蚀**(NAV erosion: 净资产值侵蚀,指基金的净资产值因各种因素而下降)直到那发生。

问题是,在比特币回归之前,Misti将会有大量的**NAV侵蚀**(NAV erosion: 净资产值侵蚀,指基金的净资产值因各种因素而下降)。
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And Bitcoin might not come back for a long time.

而且比特币可能很久都不会回归。

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Now, we're going to listen to Tom Lee in a second, and Tom Lee was a bit more excited about Bitcoin, so maybe Bitcoin comes back quicker than normal, but yeah, I think it's just going to end up being a tax loss and a harvest this year.

现在,我们稍后会听Tom Lee的,Tom Lee对比特币更兴奋一些,所以也许比特币会比平时更快回归,但是的,我认为今年它最终会成为一个税务亏损和收获。

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**DoorDash**(一家送餐服务公司)就在这里,196美元。**Uber**(优步)在85.81美元。**Cava**(一家快餐连锁店)49.72美元,上涨2.4%。

**DoorDash**(一家送餐服务公司)就在这里,196美元。**Uber**(优步)在85.81美元。**Cava**(一家快餐连锁店)49.72美元,上涨2.4%。
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We talked about a lot of the retailer stocks this morning.

我们今天早上谈论了很多零售股。

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Look at **Chipotle**(一家快餐连锁店)getting another 1.63% on the day.

看看Chipotle(一家快餐连锁店)今天又上涨了1.63%。

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Zeta right there that's up 0.94%.

Zeta就在那里,上涨0.94%。

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Nvidia still holding 180s. Would be very nice to see it close above 180.

Nvidia仍然保持在180美元区间。如果能收于180美元以上会非常好。

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**Verizon**(威瑞森电信公司)今天上涨。甚至**PayPal**(贝宝)今天也上涨1%,这很高兴看到。

**Verizon**(威瑞森电信公司)今天上涨。甚至**PayPal**(贝宝)今天也上涨1%,这很高兴看到。
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小盘股今天表现出色,上涨1%。

小盘股今天表现出色,上涨1%。
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**Duolingo**(多邻国: 一款语言学习应用)我认为是几个月来最好的一天,今天上涨7%。

**Duolingo**(多邻国: 一款语言学习应用)我认为是几个月来最好的一天,今天上涨7%。
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**Lyft**(一家网约车公司)上涨2.75%。

**Lyft**(一家网约车公司)上涨2.75%。
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甚至**Grab**(一家东南亚网约车和送餐服务公司)今天也上涨2%,然后**Dell**(戴尔公司)财报出色,上涨6%。

甚至**Grab**(一家东南亚网约车和送餐服务公司)今天也上涨2%,然后**Dell**(戴尔公司)财报出色,上涨6%。
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总体来说,这是非常强劲的一天,很高兴看到很多这些股票继续保持上涨势头。

总体来说,这是非常强劲的一天,很高兴看到很多这些股票继续保持上涨势头。

市场收盘总结与Tom Lee的展望

所以看起来我们连续第三天收涨。

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So it looks like we are going to close green for the third day in a row.

过去几周很艰难。

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It has been a tough couple of weeks.

我们都经历了看到很多这些股票受到重创的痛苦。

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We've all dealt with the pain of seeing a lot of these names get hit pretty hard.

但Nvidia今天几乎没有上涨,而标普500指数正努力回到680点水平,对我来说,这仅仅意味着市场正在扩大。

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But the fact that Nvidia is barely up on the day and the S&P 500 is really trying to get back into that 680 level to me just means we're broadening out.

有其他行业正在获得资金。

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There are other sectors that are getting that capital.

这意味着并非所有压力都集中在Nvidia上,并非所有压力都集中在科技股上。

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That means not all the pressure is on Nvidia. Not all that pressure is on tech.

你看到的是更广泛的轮动。

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You're seeing a bit more of a broadening rotation.

我们不必很快就回到月球。

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We don't have to have to go back to the moon anytime soon.

但我们正在这些水平上稳定下来,而世界上最大的公司并没有真正参与到这种上涨中,即使在财报发布之后,我认为这非常有益。

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But the fact that we're stabilizing at these levels without the world's largest company participating realistically in that upside even after those earnings, I think is very productive.

如果Nvidia能回到其财报发布时的价格197美元,那对标普指数也会非常好。

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And Nvidia, if it were to get back to its earnings price at 197, would also be really good for the S&P.

好的,就是这样。11月26日星期三,下午4点。

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All right, there we go. Wednesday, November 26, 4 p.m.

感谢大家的到来。本周最后一次市场收盘。

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Thank you everybody for being here. Last market close of the week.

股市现在已经收盘。

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The stock market is now closed.

好的,我们结束了。本周结束了。

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All right, we are done. We are done for the week.

真是非凡的一周。

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What a week it has been.

我的意思是,我们还有周五,但无论如何,这标志着本周大部分交易的结束。

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I mean, we still have Friday left, but nonetheless, this was the end to the majority of the trading that is going to be happening this week.

我们以绿色收盘。

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And we ended green.

标普500指数收盘时为679.67点,上涨0.67%。

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S&P 500 679.67 on the close was up 0.67%.

Oscar收盘时为8.16美元。

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Oscar got 8.16 on the close.

特斯拉收盘时我们达到425美元了吗?

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Tesla got did we get 425?

特斯拉收盘时为426.49美元。

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Tesla got 426.49.

Hoodie呢?我们达到128美元了吗?哇,Hoodie收盘时为128.20美元。

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Hoodie. Did we get 128? Wow, we got 128.20 on hoodie.

今天上涨11%。

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11% on the day.

绝对令人难以置信。

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Absolutely incredible.

Palantir(一家大数据分析公司)今天收盘时为16.577美元。

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Palantir right there at 16.577 on the day.

Nvidia收盘时为180.26美元。

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Nvidia got the 180 close 180.26.

Microsoft(微软)实际上上涨2%,达到485.50美元。

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Microsoft actually up 2% 485.50.

Apple(苹果)277美元,上涨2.1%。

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Apple 277 that was up 2.1%.

App(一家公司代码)上涨5.4%。

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App was up 5.4%.

Abercrombie(一家服装零售商)今天又上涨5%。

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Abercrombie up another 5% on the day.

New Bank(一家巴西数字银行)创历史新高,上涨3.79%。

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New bank all-time highs 3.79%.

ESTs(一家公司代码)今天持平。

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ESTs was flat on the day.

Kohl's(一家百货公司)在昨天上涨40%之后,今天又上涨了7%。

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Kohl's was up another 7% after being up 40% yesterday.

很多零售商都受到了青睐。

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A lot of those retailers getting some love.

Cisco(思科)今天略微持平。

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You had Cisco that was slightly flat on the day.

McDonald's(麦当劳)小幅上涨。

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McDonald's that was up a little bit.

然后Broadcom创历史新高,达到397美元,上涨3.26%。

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And then you had Broadcom hit an all-time high at 397, 3.26% right there on Broadcom.

亚马逊相对持平,229美元。

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Amazon relatively flat 229.

我确实认为亚马逊是继Google之后的下一个。

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I do think Amazon is next after Google.

不知道什么时候会发生,但在我看来,亚马逊达到300美元是不可避免的。

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Don't know when it's going to happen, but 300 is inevitable in my opinion for Amazon.

Nebas今天也上涨了6.5%。

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Nebas right there up six and a half% as well on the day.

我们都可以享受一点感恩节。

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We can all enjoy a little bit of our Thanksgiving.

过去三天让感恩节和与家人共度时光变得更加愉快。

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Last three days makes Thanksgiving and spending time with your family a bit more enjoyable.

所以非常非常感谢市场从上周的损失中反弹了相当一部分。

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So very very grateful for the markets to kind of rebound a decent chunk from what they lost last week.

好的,Tom Lee,这是他要说的,以及他对当前市场状况的看法。

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All right, Tom Lee, here's what he has to say and here's what he's thinking about the state of this market.

Tom Lee:管理合伙人兼CNBC撰稿人Tom Lee。Tom,很高兴见到你。

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Managing partner and CNBC contributor Tom Lee. Tom, great to see you.

Tom Lee:很高兴见到你,Mike。你几周前曾说过,11月上半月可能会出现一些波动,但你仍然看好之后的情况。

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Great to see you, Mike. So you had been saying, you know, let's say a few weeks ago that we could get some choppiness in the first part of November, but you were still kind of bullish looking beyond that.

在你看来,市场最近几周一直在应对什么?

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What in your view has the market been contending with in recent weeks?

我们学到了什么,这为我们未来的展望奠定了怎样的基础?

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What have we learned and how does it set us up for for for the outlook here?

Tom Lee:是的。嗯,我认为市场一直在与今年以来一直困扰它的同样问题作斗争,那就是货币政策方向不完全明确。

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Yeah. Um well, I think the market's been struggling with the same things that it's grappled with all year, which is a monetary policy direction that's not completely clear.

如你所知,12月降息的可能性一直在跳动,从高达60%跌至30%,又回升到80%。

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As you know, uh, the odds of a December cut have really jumped around from as high as 60 down to 30, back to 80.

其次,当然是政策波动性,因为政府确实会发布一些声明,有时是虚晃一枪,但会迷惑投资者。

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And the second is, of course, policy volatility because the administration does make proclamations and statements that are sometimes head fakes but confuse investors.

所有这些都导致了对股票的热情被严重压制。

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And it's all done, it's all resulted in really suppressed enthusiasm for stocks.

你知道,市场情绪一直看跌。

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You know, sentiment has been bearish.

然后,你知道,这导致标普500指数回调了5%以上。

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And then that, you know, led to a five plus% pullback in the S&P 500.

市场中更激进的部分承受了更大的痛苦。

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A lot of the more aggressive parts of the market, uh, took on a lot more pain than that.

在你看来,这让我们处于什么位置?

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Uh, where does it leave us in your mind?

我的意思是,你知道,正如我提到的,四天以来,市场几乎没有对所有障碍,包括移动平均线,产生任何波动。

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I mean, you know, as I mentioned, four days, this market has barely even flinched at pretty much all the hurdles that were along the way, the moving averages.

我们上周四突破了高点。

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We got above last Thursday's high.

我们知道感恩节前的周三和之后的周五有上涨倾向,但除此之外,我们该走向何方?

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Uh we know it's kind of a upside bias the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Friday after, but beyond that, where do we go?

Tom Lee:我认为我们正准备在年底迎来一次非常强劲的反弹。

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Uh I I think we're set up for a really strong rally into year end.

我知道我们刚刚经历了一段相当糟糕的磨砺期。

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And I know we just came out of a pretty terrible grind.

我与很多基金经理(PMs)交谈过,他们说这是他们职业生涯中最糟糕的六周之一。

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I've talked to a lot of PMs that have said it's one of their worst six week periods ever in their career.

所以我们知道人们亏了钱,他们降低了风险。

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So we know people have lost money they've derisked.

但我们知道,到年底我们有积极的季节性因素,特别是考虑到10月中旬的强劲表现。

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But we know into year end we have the positive seasonals especially given how strong October the mid October was.

你知道,我们有五六成的机会在年底前上涨5%。

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You know it's really a five or six chance that we're going to be up 5% into year end right.

其次是货币政策,我认为它将转向鸽派。

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Um the second is monetary policy I think is going to shift doubbish.

即使美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)是鹰派,我们也知道现在有一个“影子美联储”正在等待,它是鸽派的。

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Even if Fed chair Powell is hawkish we know it waiting in the wings is now a shadow Fed that's doubbish.

第三是,我们知道市场情绪将不得不追逐这次反弹,因为80%的基金经理都落后于他们的基准。

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Um the third is we know sentiment is going to have to chase this rally because 80% of fund managers are trailing their benchmark.

然后我认为基本面故事非常完整。

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And then I think the fundamental story is pretty intact.

你知道,当我们为明年做准备时,我认为盈利可见度会非常好。

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You know, as we're doing work into next year and I think earnings visibility is going to be really good.

所以我认为我不是在质疑盈利是否见顶,更多的是股票是否已经充分定价并修正。

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So I don't think I'm questioning if earnings are peaking. It's more just that stocks price in and correct enough.

你一直指望标普指数在年底达到7,000点。

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Now you've been I think pointing toward let's say 7,000 in the S&P by year end.

现在距离这里只有大约2.5%的涨幅。

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Now that's only like two and a half% up from here.

我们取得了一些进展,但一年前,你也认为我们会在今年上半年达到7,000点。

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We made some progress, but a year ago, you also thought we'd hit 7,000 in the first half of this year.

那么,一路上发生了什么?

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So, what happened along the way?

我想,展望2026年,你会考虑哪些障碍?

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And and I guess what might you think about in terms of impediments looking into 2026?

Tom Lee:是的。我的意思是,我们几乎已经度过了今年,我想说回顾过去,这是五年历史压缩到一年,因为我们经历了一次重大的熊市,有史以来最大的关税上调,这当然扼杀了上半年达到7,000点的任何希望。

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Yes. I mean, we're almost through this year and I'd say looking back, this was a five years of history compressed into one year because we had a major bare market, the biggest tariff hikes ever, and that of course killed any hope of any 7,000 in the first half.

但奇迹般地,股票进入了瀑布式下跌,并对称地收复了所有跌幅。

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But miraculously stocks went into a waterfall decline and recovered every single point of that decline symmetrically.

所以这确实说明了韧性。

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So it really speaks to the resilience.

但我想,当我们考虑明年时,我敢打赌它会非常相似,我们将再次经历政策冲击。

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But I guess as we're thinking about next year, I bet you it's going to be very similar in the sense that we'll get a policy shock.

无论是货币政策还是政府政策,都可能再次导致20%的大幅下跌。

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Maybe whether it's monetary or from the administration, it could lead to a big draw down of 20% again.

是的。但这只是今年的重演。

View/Hide Original English

Yeah. But it's a replay of this year.

也许这就是我们五年内经历了三次20%的熊市。

View/Hide Original English

And maybe that's we've now had three 20% bare markets in five years.

我的意思是,这是五年内压缩了大量的历史。

View/Hide Original English

I mean, that's a lot of history compressed into a 5-year period.

你提到了美联储路径的不确定性,以及一些政策波动,这些都导致了最近的回调。

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Now, we you mentioned uh obviously the confusion over the path for the Fed as contributing to this recent pullback as well as some policy flux in there.

加密货币市场的剧烈震荡对此有何影响?

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Uh what role did the violent shakeout in crypto have on all that?

因为一周前,我们谈论的都是比特币无法停止下跌,纳斯达克想要跟随它,或者人们担心这会如何影响其他金融资产。

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Because a week ago, that's all we were talking about was Bitcoin can't stop going down. the NASDAQ wants to follow it or people are concerned about how that's going to knock other things loose in other financial assets.

所以它已经稳定下来了,但它并没有真正参与到这次反弹的上涨中。

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So it's stabilized but it's not exactly sort of participating to the upside in this bounce.

Tom Lee:是的。嗯,加密货币在过去五年中的大部分时间里都是一个领先指标。

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Yes. Um so crypto had been a leading indicator for for actually most of the last five years.

但在10月10日,加密货币发生了我称之为“世界末日”的事件。

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But on October 10th crypto had what I would call Armageddon.

你知道,一个闪电事件,但它导致了一场在比特币15年历史上从未见过的清算。

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You know a flash event but it led to a liquidation that was never seen in the 15 years history of Bitcoin.

你知道,那天大约三分之一的市场做市商倒闭了。

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You know, about a third of the market makers went out of business that day.

几乎有200万个账户归零。

View/Hide Original English

Uh almost 2 million accounts went to zero.

是的。那是因为一个定价错误,我称之为小故障,你知道,它导致了那个水平。

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Yeah. And it was because of a a pricing error, what I would call a glitch, you know, it and it led to that level.

你确实提出了这个观点,市场做市商的功能确实出了问题。

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You definitely made that case that it definitely seems as if there was something in the uh the kind of market maker functioning that that that got fouled.

话虽如此,之所以能有那么多账户被自动清算,是因为有那么多账户带有那么多杠杆,将比特币推高到120,000美元以上。

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Now that being said, the reason you can have all those accounts autoliquidated is because there were that many accounts with that much leverage that got bit Bitcoin up to where it was above 120.

是的。

View/Hide Original English

Yes.

对吧。我的意思是,所以它不是凭空发生的。

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Right. I mean, so it's not as if it happened in a vacuum.

Tom Lee:是的。所以从某种意义上说,这意味着加密货币确实代表了风险偏好的非常精确的衡量,因为有太多的杠杆,而这些杠杆都被清除了,对吧?

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Yeah. So if in a way it means crypto represents really a very precise measurement of of risk appetite because there's so much more leverage and that got wiped out, right?

上次这种情况发生在2022年,花了八周时间人们才重新开始尝试。

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That last time it happened in 2022 it took eight weeks before people sort of know you know touch their toes back in.

我认为我们现在正处于这个阶段,我们接近底部,但现在我认为加密货币不再是领先指标,加密货币正在滞后,因为真正领先的将是人工智能。

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I think that's where we are we're near a bottom but now I don't think crypto leads crypto is lagging because it's really the AI that's going to be leading.

好的,所以这基本上搁置了你之前认为的比特币15万、15万美元的想法。

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Okay so it's no so basically that is kind of sidelined the idea of what Bitcoin 150 150,000 you were thinking before.

Tom Lee:嗯,我认为比特币在年底前仍然很有可能超过100,000美元,甚至可能创下新高。

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Uh well I think it's still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above a 100,000 for year end and maybe even above one to a new high.

所以,比特币每年都会在10天内完成其大部分涨幅。

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So, Bitcoin makes its moves in 10 days in every year.

我认为其中一些最好的日子仍然会在年底前发生。

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I think some of those best days are still going to happen four year end.

我们现在正在关注它在89,500美元。

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We're watching it right now at 89,500.

那意味着比特币到年底将超过126,000美元,如果故事最终是这样发展的话,那将非常令人兴奋。

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That would be Bitcoin at above 126,000 by end of year, which would be pretty exciting if uh if that's how this story ends up playing out.

所以问题只是我们是否真的能获得那种风险偏好动能,也许降息将是实现这一目标的催化剂。

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So, the question is just going to be do we actually get that type of risk on momentum and maybe the rate cut is going to be the catalyst to get there.

这是Tom最后要说的话,然后我们继续。

View/Hide Original English

Here's the last of what Tom had to say and then we'll keep going from there.

Tom Lee:今年上半年全面的领导力,OpenAI(一家人工智能研究与部署公司)的轨道以及其他一切都可以参与。

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The full uh leadership of the first half of this year where the Open AI orbit and everything else can participate.

是的。嗯,我知道股票一直在争夺领先地位。

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Yeah. Um well, I know stocks have been sort of trading uh pole position.

是的,Nvidia和Alphabet(Google的母公司)。

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Yeah. Nvidia and Alphabet.

但对我来说,最大的故事主线仍然是人工智能是一个大趋势。

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But to me the biggest story arc remains that AI is a mega trend.

有很多资源和支出,它是增长的重要贡献者,我们知道电力和硅都存在短缺。

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There's a lot of resources and spending and it's a big contributor to growth and we know there's a shortage of both power and silicon.

所以,我确实认为它最终会在未来12个月内作为一个整体向前发展。

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Um so I do think it kind of it's going to ultimately move over the next 12 months kind of as one cohort.

我认为估值敏感性没有人们想象的那么重要。

View/Hide Original English

Uh I don't think valuation sensitivity is as important as people think.

我们现在正在研究这个问题。

View/Hide Original English

We're actually studying this now.

我们很快就会发布。

View/Hide Original English

We're going to be publishing it soon.

但如果你回顾10年前,2015年底最昂贵的股票在未来五年中仍然是表现最好的股票。

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But if you look back 10 years ago, the most expensive stocks at the end of 2015 continue to be the best stocks over the next 5 years.

对。是的。我的意思是,这很有趣,因为我甚至不知道这是否真的是一个估值故事,就退步而言。

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Right. Yeah. I mean, it's interesting because I don't even know if it's really a valuation story in terms of what's taken a step back.

这是一个谁目前领先的问题。

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It's a matter of, you know, kind of who's got the current lead.

是的。谁的模型清晰路径之类的。

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Who's Yeah. whose model clear path or something like that.

是的。嗯,Cameron在。

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Yeah. Um Cameron in ter.

是的。我的意思是,你看,我认为他关于估值的论点并非无关紧要,因为2015年那些被高估的股票,比如亚马逊,最终成为了表现最好的股票。

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Yeah. I mean, look, I I think that argument that he's saying about the valuation is isn't as irrelevant because 2015 the most overvalued stocks like an Amazon have turned out to be the best performing stocks.

我认为这在某种程度上也是显而易见的,对吧?

View/Hide Original English

I think that's also just kind of obvious to an extent, right?

对吧?就像如果你有被高估的炒作Beta股(Hype Beta Stocks: 市场情绪驱动、波动性大的股票),10年后它们可能要么不复存在,要么肯定达不到那些估值。

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Right? Like if you have hype beta stocks that are overvalued, 10 years later, they probably either won't be around or definitely won't reach those valuations.

但如果有些公司盈利正在增长,并且它们“被高估”或以高倍数交易,我的意思是,它们要么成长到那些倍数,要么市场继续给予它们溢价,因为只有少数公司值得获得那么多资金,而且有很多人想投资。

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But if there are companies that are growing earnings and they're quote unquote overvalued or trade at expensive multiples, I mean, they either a grow into those multiples or b the street continues to give them that premium because there's just not there's a handful of companies that are worth getting that much capital and there's a lot of people that want to invest.

所以,我认为在未来几年里,对于一些看起来很昂贵的人工智能股票来说,情况可能就是这样,显然它们中的很多在一个月前更贵,我们此后经历了一次下跌,这给了它们时间继续成长到它们的估值。

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So, I think that could be the case over the coming years for some of the AI stocks that do seem expensive and obviously a lot of them were more expensive a month ago and we've since had a draw down and that gives them time to continue uh growing into their valuation.

所以,你看,我认为Tom Lee所说的正在保持这种看涨故事的完整性。

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So, look, I think what Tom Lee is saying right there is kind of keeping that bull story intact.

显然,降息情景将是真正帮助市场在年底前上涨的因素。

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Obviously, the rate cut scenario would be kind of what really helps this move on into the end of year.

他的比特币目标已经从200,000美元区间下调到至少120,000美元以上。

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His Bitcoin target has moved down from that 200,000 range to at least above 120.

然后进入1月份,我们将看到市场在进入2026年时最终会如何表现。

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And then going into January, we're going to see how the market ultimately acts as we enter 2026.

但那基本上就是Tom Lee先生要说的。

View/Hide Original English

But that was pretty much what Mr. Tom Lee had to say.

这就是我们正在进行的。

View/Hide Original English

And that's what we've we've got going on.

Ram,谢谢你的超级聊天。

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Ram, thanks for the super chat.

很高兴我找到了你的频道。

View/Hide Original English

Glad I found your channel.

你在她公寓的健身房遇到了我妹妹。

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You met my sister at her apartment gym.

她不想过来看看你的帽子收藏。

View/Hide Original English

She doesn't want to come over to see your hack collection.

如果你能停止给她发短信的话。

View/Hide Original English

If you can stop texting her.

这就是为什么我,这就是为什么我感谢你们。

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This is why I am this is why I'm thankful for you guys.

这就是这些评论,这些超级聊天。

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This is this is these are the com these are the super chat.

有人花了4.99美元公开这些。

View/Hide Original English

The fact that someone paid $4.99 to put that out there publicly.

这就是为什么你们是YouTube上最好的聊天。

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This is why you guys are the best chat on YouTube.

这就是原因。

View/Hide Original English

This is why.

尽管Chat GPT今天早上嘲笑了你们。

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Even though Chat GBT roasted you guys this morning.

如果你没看过市场开盘,去看看“Chat GBT嘲笑聊天室”那一章。

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If you haven't seen the market open, go to the chapter where it says Chat GBT roasts the chat.

去看看吧。

View/Hide Original English

Just go to it.

你会看到数百亿美元的GPU驱动的超级智能是如何看待你们有时对待我的方式的。

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Just got you you'll see how super intelligence hundreds of billions of dollars of GPUs thinks about how how you guys treat me sometimes.

AI图像生成技术突破:Google Nano Banana Pro

好的,还有几个头条新闻,然后我们今天就结束了。

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Okay, couple of their headlines and then we're going to end it out for today.

首先,我想给大家看一些东西。

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First of all, I want to show you guys something.

如果我给你们看屏幕上的这张图片,每个人都会说这是人工智能生成的。

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Uh if I showed you this picture that is on the screen, everyone would say this is AI.

有点明显,图片很好看,但你会说是人工智能。

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Kind of obvious, good-look picture, but you would say it's AI.

如果我给你们看这张图片,每个人可能都会说:“是的,那是人工智能。”

View/Hide Original English

If I showed you this picture, everyone would probably say, "Yep, that's that's AI."

如果我给你们看这张图片,更好一点,更真实一点,每个人可能仍然会说是人工智能。

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If I showed you this picture, a little bit better, more realistic, everyone would probably still say it's AI.

现在,如果我给你们看这张图片,就没那么容易说这是人工智能了,各位。

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Now, if I showed you this picture, it is not that easy to say this is AI, folks.

这是Nano Banana Pro(Google Gemini Flash模型的一个代号,用于图像生成)。

View/Hide Original English

This is Nano Banana Pro.

Nano Banana Pro显然是,或者这是Nano Banana和Nano Banana Pro之间的并排比较。

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Nano Banana Pro apparently took two or this is a side-by-side between Nano Banana and Nano Banana Pro.

显然,你可以看出左边的是Nano Banana。

View/Hide Original English

Obviously, you can tell the one on the left is Nano Banana.

所以那是一张不错的图片,但任何人都能看出来,嘿,这可能就是人工智能。

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So, that's like a decent picture, but anyone could tell, hey, this is probably AI.

旁边那个是如果你升级的话。

View/Hide Original English

The one next to it is if you upgrade.

我无法,我向很多不同的来源证实了。

View/Hide Original English

I could not I verified with a bunch of different sources.

这是准确的。它一直在疯传。

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This is accurate. It's been going viral.

这就是Google正在发布的东西。

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And this is what Google is putting out.

这就是Gemini(Google开发的一系列多模态大型语言模型)获得关注的原因。

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And this is why Gemini is getting the attention that it's getting.

这个帖子本身就获得了2300万次观看。

View/Hide Original English

This post itself got 23 million views.

人们无法相信这竟然是真的,但这两张都是人工智能生成的。

View/Hide Original English

People cannot believe that this is actually real, but both these are AI.

我的意思是,当我看到这张图片时,我以为那个人把这张图片发给了Nano Banana,然后说:“嘿,给我做一个这个版本。”

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I mean, when I saw this picture, I thought the guy like sent this picture into Nano Banana and said, "Hey, make me a version of this."

这就是它弹出的结果。

View/Hide Original English

And this is what it popped out.

但显然,他提示的是“一个女孩坐在酒吧里”。

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But apparently, he prompted girl sitting at a bar.

然后在Pro版本中,你得到了这个。

View/Hide Original English

And then on the pro version, you get this.

我认为这将在未来五年内对人类产生存在主义影响,关于什么是真实的,什么是虚假的,什么是网红(Influencer: 在社交媒体上拥有大量追随者并能影响他人购买决策的人),如果任何人都可以编写一个网红,然后提示他们以某种方式说话。

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I think the existential impact this is going to have for humanity in regards to what is real, what is fake, what is an influencer in the next five years, if if anyone can just code up an influencer and then prompt them to speak in a certain way.

我的意思是,这确实引发了很多问题,很多问题。

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I mean like it really begs a lot of questions, a lot of questions.

所以看好Google,伙计。

View/Hide Original English

So bullish Google, dude.

非常看好Google。

View/Hide Original English

So bullish Google.

我认为我们还没有看到任何其他模型能够创建这样的内容。

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I I don't think we've seen any other model that has been able to create content like that.

现在Sora(OpenAI的文本到视频生成模型)非常好,我也玩过Sora。

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Now Sora is really good and I've played around with Sora as well.

Nano Banana Pro在图像生成方面。

View/Hide Original English

Nano Banana Pro in terms of image generation.

我没有从Sora那里看到过那样的图像。

View/Hide Original English

I've not seen an image like that from Sora.

我看到过一些非常好的视频,显然非常真实,但天哪,那个真的不像是人工智能,但那就是你得到的。

View/Hide Original English

I've seen some pretty good videos which are obviously very realistic, but my goodness, that one did not feel like it was AI, but that's what you got.

所以再次,这些公司在研发方面投入的很多新创新,看起来会带来更多的兴奋。

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And so again, a lot of these new innovations in regards to the R&D that these companies are putting up, it looks like it's going to lead to a lot more excitement.

顺便说一句,说到Google,我发现了一些分析。

View/Hide Original English

By the way, speaking of Google right here, I found some analysis.

还记得The Information(一家科技媒体)似乎说过Meta将使用Gemini进行广告定位吗?

View/Hide Original English

Remember when the information apparently said that Meta was going to be using Gemini for ad targeting?

Meta后来否认了这份报告。

View/Hide Original English

Meta later denied the report.

这是他们几个月前发布的一段引文:“我们一直都在构建自己行业领先的专有广告定位和推荐系统。

View/Hide Original English

This is a quote they put out a couple months ago. We've always built our own industryleading proprietary ad targeting re recommendation systems.

除此之外,我们定期评估第三方工具用于基准测试,这就是这里的情况。”

View/Hide Original English

Separate from that, we regularly evaluate thirdparty tools for the purpose of benchmarking, which is the case here.

几个月前发布那份报告的媒体机构当然是The Information。

View/Hide Original English

The company, the media establishment that put out that report a couple months ago was of course the information.

所以再次,我们没有Google和Meta关于合作的TPU(Tensor Processing Unit: Google为神经网络机器学习定制的ASIC芯片)更新。

View/Hide Original English

So again, we have zero update on TPUs from Google and Meta in regards to a collaboration.

这就是Nvidia昨天受到如此重创的原因。

View/Hide Original English

This is the reason why Nvidia got hit so hard yesterday.

没有一家公司出来证实。

View/Hide Original English

None of the companies have come out and confirmed it.

但再次,The Information在报道这些故事的准确性方面并没有最好的历史记录。

View/Hide Original English

But again, the information does not have the best history of making these stories the most accurate.

所以我们将看看这是否最终会成为事实。

View/Hide Original English

So we're going to see if that ends up becoming true.

但无论如何,如果不是,那么昨天围绕TPU/GPU(Tensor Processing Unit/Graphics Processing Unit: Google的AI芯片与图形处理器)争论的大部分痛苦可能就没有那么严重。

View/Hide Original English

But nonetheless, if it's not, then maybe a lot of this pain yesterday around the TPU GPU debate was not as big of a deal.

Google就在那里,320美元,盘后上涨0.08%。

View/Hide Original English

Google right there 320 up 0.08%. 08% after hours.

再次,当你看到那样的图像,当你看到Nano Banana在获得关注方面增长如此之快时,因为现在每个人都意识到如果你想要一张令人惊叹的逼真图像,你必须去使用这个新的Nano Banana。

View/Hide Original English

Again, when you see images like that and when you see how fast Nano Banana is growing in regards to how much attention they're getting because now everyone realizes that if you want a amazing lifelike image, you got to go to this new Nano Banana thing.

很难想象Google不会继续表现良好。

View/Hide Original English

It's hard to imagine that Google does not continue doing well.

所以,我们将看看这种势头能否持续。

View/Hide Original English

So, we're going to see if that momentum can continue.

白宫附近枪击事件简报

不幸的是,我们这里还有另一条突发新闻。

View/Hide Original English

We do have another piece of breaking news right here, unfortunately.

这是在白宫。

View/Hide Original English

And this was at the White House.

你们中的一些人可能听说了这个故事,一些人可能没有,但它包括在白宫附近发生了两名国民警卫队队员被枪击的事件。

View/Hide Original English

Some of you guys probably heard the story, some of you guys probably didn't, but um it included a shooting of two national guards at the White House.

James:Mike,我们现在正在监控关于华盛顿特区白宫附近几个街区发生枪击事件的报告。

View/Hide Original English

Mike, we're monitoring reports now of a shooting incident just a couple of blocks from the White House here in Washington DC.

这大约发生在20分钟前。

View/Hide Original English

This happened just about 20 minutes ago.

我们所知的是,根据国土安全部的数据,两名国民警卫队队员被枪击。

View/Hide Original English

And what we know is that according to the Department of Homeland Security, uh two National Guardsmen have been shot.

他们的情况目前尚不清楚。

View/Hide Original English

Their condition is unclear at this time.

DC警方说。

View/Hide Original English

DC police say.

《华尔街日报》刚刚在五分钟前证实,他们不幸去世了。

View/Hide Original English

The Wall Street Journal just confirmed five minutes ago that they have unfortunately passed away.

那两名被枪击的国民警卫队队员。

View/Hide Original English

Those two National Guardsmen that were shot.

他们已经拘留了一名嫌疑人。

View/Hide Original English

They have a suspect in custody already.

现在,这发生在白宫大院附近几个街区内,但不是紧邻或在大院内。

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Now, this took place uh within a couple of blocks of uh the White House complex itself, but not adjacent to it or at the White House complex.

这大约在第17街和第8街之间。

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This is uh somewhere around 17th and I 17th and 8th Street.

所以如果你了解这个区域,那是在华盛顿特区的法拉格特公园(Farragut Park)和拉斐特公园(Lafayette Park)之间。

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So that's somewhere between uh Farragut Park and Lafayette Park here in Washington DC if you know the area.

我们现在也看到一份报告,Mike,里根国家机场(Ronald Reagan National Airport: 华盛顿特区附近的一个机场)因安全原因暂停地面运行。

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We're also seeing a report now Mike that DCA Ronald Reagan National Airport uh does have a ground stop due to security.

关于地面暂停没有更多信息。

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No additional information on that ground stop uh just yet.

但我们也看到报告称,一架医疗直升机降落在白宫南部的椭圆形草坪(Ellipse: 白宫南侧的一个大型公园),然后起飞前往医疗机构。

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Uh but we are seeing reports as well uh that a medevac helicopter landed on the Ellipse at the uh south of the White House and then took off bound for a medical facility.

所以,我们不知道国民警卫队队员的情况,正如我们所说。

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So, uh, we don't know the condition, as we say, of the National Guardsman.

现在有相互矛盾的报道。

View/Hide Original English

There are conflicting reports now of.

枪手或嫌疑人被枪击并已被拘留。

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The shooter is or the suspect was shot and is in custody.

你们中的一些人说他们实际上没有死。

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Some of you guys are saying they didn't actually die.

据我所知,《华尔街日报》在4点01分,也就是15分钟前报道。

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From what I'm seeing, Wall Street Journal at 401, so 15 minutes ago.

两名国民警卫队队员被枪击身亡。

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Uh, two members of the National Guard have been shot and killed.

嗯,至少《华尔街日报》是这么说的。

View/Hide Original English

Uh, that's at least what the Wall Street Journal is saying.

我们将看看他们是否会更新这篇文章。

View/Hide Original English

We'll see if they have an update on this article.

嫌疑人已被拘留,也被枪击。

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The suspect is in custody and has also been shot.

撤回了。

View/Hide Original English

Retracted.

这很奇怪。

View/Hide Original English

That's weird.

通常如果《华尔街日报》更新声明,你会看到更新。

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Usually you get an update on the Wall Street Journal if they if they update the statement.

我这里还没有看到编辑。

View/Hide Original English

I don't see an edit here yet.

嗯,我会努力弄清楚发生了什么,但关于嫌疑人是谁?

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Um I will try to figure out what's happening, but there's so much missing context on like who is the suspect?

他们为什么开枪?

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Why did they start shooting?

他们是不是瞄准了别人?

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Were they aiming for someone else?

这怎么发生的?

View/Hide Original English

How did this happen?

我们真的没有很多关于这最终如何发生的细节,但这只是在我直播前刚刚爆出的新闻之一。

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Like we really don't have a lot of details on how this ended up happening, but it was just one of those stories that broke literally right before I went live.

所以,是的,希望那些家庭一切安好。

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And so, yeah, hoping for the best for those families.

显然,在感恩节这样的节日之前发生这种事非常令人悲伤。

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It's obviously very sad this happens before something like Thanksgiving.

嗯,但我们会努力获得关于这里到底发生了什么以及为什么会发生这种情况的最新消息。

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Uh, but we'll try to get an update on exactly what's happening here and why this ended up taking place.

所以,各位,这些是今天大部分的故事。

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So, those are most of the stories for the days, folks.

我认为差不多就是这样了。

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I think that's pretty much it.

嗯,我想给你们展示的关于Nano Banana的人工智能内容。

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Um, the AI stuff I wanted to show you guys on Nano Banana.

看了一些保证金债务的增加。

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Looked at some of the margin debt increases.

显然,市场连续第三天上涨。

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Obviously, markets had their third green day in a row.

Oscar获得了Piper Sandler的升级。

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Oster got the upgrade by Piper Sandler.

然后是Tom Lee对加密货币世界的看法。

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And then you had Tom Lee's thoughts on what's going on in the world of crypto.

你们中的一些人说他们确实死了。

View/Hide Original English

Some of you guys are saying they did die.

让我看看我是否能找到另一篇文章来解释。

View/Hide Original English

Let me see if I can get another article that explains it.

这篇说情况危急。

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This is saying critical condition.

不,美联社(AP: Associated Press)说他们死了。

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No, AP they've died.

福克斯新闻(Fox News)也说他们去世了。

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Fox News as well saying they've passed away.

要么所有这些消息来源都错了,要么他们真的去世了。

View/Hide Original English

Either all these sources have it wrong or they actually have passed away here.

是的。BBC新闻(BBC News),《纽约时报》(The New York Times)也这么说。

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Yeah. BBC News, New York Times also saying it.

这很奇怪,伙计。

View/Hide Original English

It's weird, dude.

是的。这非常令人困惑,为什么以及如何发生这种事。

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Yeah. It it's very confusing like why and how this even took place, but.

但那是今天早些时候发生的事情。

View/Hide Original English

That is something that happened earlier today.

他们是怎么死的?

View/Hide Original English

How did they die?

看起来是中枪。

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It seems like from from getting shot.

看起来他们情况危急,然后枪伤太重,最终导致死亡。

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It seems like they were in critical custody and then the bullet wounds were just too much and that's how they ended up getting killed.

但我会看看能否获得这个故事的最新消息。

View/Hide Original English

But I'll see if I can get an update on this story.

希望我们下周回来时,会有更多关于为什么会发生这种情况,或者如何发生的,以及他们实际瞄准的是谁的细节。

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Hopefully when we come back next week, we'll have a lot more details on why this happened or how it happened, who they were actually aiming for.

但那是今天确实发生的事情。

View/Hide Original English

But that is something that did happen today.

Palantir盘后16.50美元,Nvidia 180美元,Robinhood 128美元,亚马逊229美元,然后Google 320美元。

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Pounder right here 16.50 after hours, Nvidia 180, Robin Hood 128, Amazon at 229, and then Google here at 320.

是的,原因和方式令人困惑。

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Yeah, the why and how is confusion.

这真的很困惑,没有人有任何更新。

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It's like really really confus and no one has any updates on it.

除了这件事确实发生了之外,没有其他报道。

View/Hide Original English

There's no coverage other than this has indeed happened.

嗯,Trump(Donald Trump: 美国前总统)。

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Uh, Trump. Oh, Trump has a tweet on this.

哦,Trump对此有一条推文。

View/Hide Original English

Hold on.

等等。

View/Hide Original English

Trump. Okay.

Trump:好的。那个枪击两名国民警卫队队员的“畜生”,两人都受了重伤,现在多个消息来源报道他们已经死亡,并且现在在两家不同的医院,也受了重伤,但无论如何,我们将付出非常沉重的代价。

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The animal that shot the two National Guardsmen with both being critically wounded and multiple sources now reporting uh dead uh and now in two separate hospitals is also severely wounded, but regardless, we'll pay a very steep price.

上帝保佑我们伟大的国民警卫队以及我们所有的军队和执法部门。

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God bless our great National Guard and all of our military and law enforcement.

这些人真是伟大的人。

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These are truly great people.

我作为美国总统,以及所有与总统办公室相关的人,都与你们同在。

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I as president of the United States and everyone else associated with the office of the presidency and with you.

所以,关于这到底是如何以及为何发生的,没有上下文。

View/Hide Original English

So, no context on exactly how and why this happened.

市场展望与社区感谢

好的。嗯,我认为今天差不多就是这样了。

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All right. Um, I think that is pretty much it on the day.

嗯,是的,今天没有其他重大的头条新闻。

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Um, yeah, nothing else in terms of major major headlines that took place today.

我认为我们以绿色收盘是非常看涨的。

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I think the fact that we ended green was very bullish.

我们以绿色收盘,进入市场广度的扩大,也就是说Nvidia并没有真正参与,虽然我非常喜欢Nvidia,但我确实希望市场的其他部分继续帮助,继续帮助标普500指数的整体广度形成,这很看涨。

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The fact that we ended green into the broadening of the market aka Nvidia didn't really participate which you know as much as I love Nvidia I do want the rest of the market to continue helping uh to continue help the the overall broadening formation of the S&P 500 like that's bullish.

所以Salesforce(一家云计算软件公司)下跌,ServiceNow(一家云计算公司)下跌,Nvidia上涨1.3%,Google持平,Meta持平,但其他一切都上涨了,这很高兴看到。

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And so you had Salesforce that was down in it that was down service now that was down invid was up 1.3% Google was flat meta was flat but everything else got a which was very nice to see.

这就是我们今天的情况。

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That's pretty much what we have for the day.

你认为我们会在周五的短交易日中有所抛售吗?

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Do you think we sell off a bit on the short Friday?

你知道,如果周五真的出现抛售,其中很多可能不那么合理,因为交易量很低,而且那也是我们在12月开始前的周五。

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You know, if we do get a sell-off on Friday, a lot of it is probably less uh like less reasonable to assume if it's that big of a deal because it's it's such low volume and it's also it's it's like a Friday before we start December.

所以,我的意思是,我不会对任何大幅上涨或大幅下跌反应过度。

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So, I mean, I I I wouldn't overreact to any massive move up, any massive move down.

周五你可能只会看到人们在股票中进出。

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You're just going to probably have people that are trading in and out of stocks on Friday.

所以,我认为我们不会真正看到一个趋势,但是的,过去几天的势头至少是相对绿色的。

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So, I don't think we're going to really see a trend, but yeah, the the the momentum over the past couple of days at least has been relatively green.

周五肯定会有一些算法会玩得很开心。

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There will definitely be some algos that uh have some fun on on Friday.

不,我妹妹的事情不是真的。

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No, the sister thing is not true.

Ram只是个有趣的人。

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Ram is just a funny guy.

这是一个很好的评论,我不会说谎。

View/Hide Original English

It's a good comment. I'm not going to lie.

她不想看你的帽子收藏。

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She doesn't want to see your hat collection.

这确实是一个有趣的评论。

View/Hide Original English

It's actually a funny comment.

好的,我想我就到这里了。

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All right, I think that's it for me.

我想,嗯,本周我给大家的最后一个问题。

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I guess uh last question I'll have for everybody for the week.

这将是本周的最后一次直播。

View/Hide Original English

This will be the last stream for the week.

我昨晚在Steve的直播中问过这个问题,但我认为在感恩节前问很重要。

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I asked this last night on Steve's stream, but I think it's important to ask before Thanksgiving.

你感恩什么?

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What are you thankful for?

你感恩什么?

View/Hide Original English

What are you thankful for?

在聊天中写下你感恩什么?

View/Hide Original English

You put in the chat, what are you thankful for?

Amit的帽子。

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Mits hats.

天哪。

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Oh my gosh.

我显然昨天说过,但是,你知道,健康、家人,所有这些都不言而喻。

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I obviously I said this yesterday, but uh the you know, health, family, all that stuff goes without saying.

真正让我最感恩的一件事是这个社区和我们建立的观众,以及能够来回应对一切的能力。

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Really, one of the things I'm the most thankful about is this community and the audience we built and the ability to navigate everything going on back and forth.

我的意思是,这些市场很难应对。

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I mean, these are tough markets to deal with.

作为一个个体并不容易。

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It's uh not easy as an individual person.

我非常受益于Chris、Steve、Jason以及所有这些人,Matt Money,我可以打电话向他们提问的人。

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Uh I I greatly benefit from Chris and Steve and Jason and all these people Matt money people I can just call up and ask questions to.

所以能够每天直播培养这个社区,希望能成为信息和娱乐的来源。

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So to be able to cultivate that community live every single day hopefully be a source of information and entertainment.

你知道,成为比我们自己更伟大的事物的一部分,最终目标是创造更多的财务独立性,我们通过股市来实现,我认为这是投资史上最动态和有趣的时期,鉴于我们正在经历的技术革命。

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And you know be part of something bigger than ourselves which at the end of the day is creating more financial independence and the way we do it is the stock market and it's the most dynamic and interesting time to be an investor I think of the history of investing given the technological revolution that we're going through.

能和大家一起做这件事真的很酷。

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And it's just really cool to be doing this together with everybody.

所以非常非常感谢能每天在这里做这件事。

View/Hide Original English

So very very grateful to be here and do this every single day.

我感恩一个发音错误。

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I'm grateful for a misprononunciation.

对于所有说“感恩你”的人。

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For all the people saying grateful for you.

非常感谢。

View/Hide Original English

Thank you so much.

我非常感谢。

View/Hide Original English

I appreciate it.

再次,没有你们就没有我。

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Again, there is no me without you.

所以,这是一条双向的街道。

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So, it is a two two-way street.

你知道,我只是深深地感谢每天能在这里。

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And you know, I just deeply appreciate being here every single day.

我努力从不将它视为理所当然。

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I I try never to take it for granted every single day.

有时,你知道,有些周很艰难。

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And some, you know, some weeks it's tough.

就像上周,你知道,每天直播,当市场一片血红时,你必须基本上给出理由,即使你可能没有理由解释为什么事情如此糟糕。

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Like last week it's, you know, going live every day when it's bleeding red and you have to basically give a reason when you might not have a reason for why things are horrible.

我的意思是,你必须能够应对它。

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I mean, like you got to be able to navigate it.

但人们甚至关心你的观点,你的意见,你对他们来说是一个安慰的来源,试图给他们一些指导,无论市场是涨是跌,这对我来说是非常非常非常非常非常谦卑的。

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So, but the fact that people even care about your perspective, your opinion, that you're a source of comfort for them to try to give them some guidance and in terms of what's going on, whether we're up or down, that to me is is very, very, very, very, very humbling.

我对此非常感恩。

View/Hide Original English

And I'm very grateful for that.

所以,我想就是这样了。

View/Hide Original English

So, I think that's it.

当我们结束这一年时,Derek今天刚刚给我发了短信。

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As we end out the year, Dererick just texted me today.

Derek是。

View/Hide Original English

Derek is.

伙计,有富裕,还有非常富裕。

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Dude, there's like rich and there's like rich rich.

Derek给我发了一段他和Vlad乘坐私人飞机去纽约的视频。

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Dererick texted me a video of him and Vlad getting on the private jet to New York.

我说:“兄弟,你们真是非常富裕。

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I was like, "Bro, you guys are rich rich.

你们是另一种富裕。

View/Hide Original English

You guys are just a different type of rich.

从迈阿密到纽约的私人飞机。”

View/Hide Original English

Freaking private jet from Miami to New York."

但我不知道他会来参加晚宴,他今天会在那里。

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But I didn't know he was going to be showing up to dinner, but he'll be there today.

所以和他叙旧会很有趣。

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So, it'll be fun to catch up with him.

然后Steve也会在那里。

View/Hide Original English

And then Steve will be there.

我妹妹刚刚打电话给我。

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My sister just called me.

她问:“等等。那我为什么要再参加这个晚宴?”

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She was like, "Wait a second. So, why am I going to this dinner again?"

我说:“Vlad说要邀请,你知道,任何想来的人。”

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I was like, "Vlad said to invite, you know, anyone who wanted to come."

所以我问她想不想来。

View/Hide Original English

So, I asked if you wanted to come.

她问:“Vlad,你是说我们要和Vlad Tenev(Robinhood的联合创始人兼首席执行官)一起吃饭?”

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And she was like, "Vlad, you mean we're we're having dinner with like Vlad Tenn?"

我当时就想:“兄弟,她有时说的话,我真想把手机扔掉。”

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And I was just like, "Bro, like sometimes she says things and I just want to throw my phone."

我说:“是的,我们要和Vlad Tenev一起吃饭。”

View/Hide Original English

I'm like, "Yes, we're having dinner with Vlad Tenn."

是的,没错。

View/Hide Original English

Yes, exactly.

我们要和Robinhood的首席执行官一起吃饭,百分之百。

View/Hide Original English

We're having dinner with the CEO of Robin Hood 100%.

今天就是这样。

View/Hide Original English

That's that's what's happening today.

她问:“不,但我们真的吗?”

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And she was like, "No, but are we?"

我说:“不,我们不是和那个Vlad一起吃饭,但我们要和另一个Vlad一起吃饭。”

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I'm like, "No, we're not freaking having dinner with that Vlad, but uh we are having dinner with another Vlad."

这会很有趣,因为她总是说“向亿万富翁征税”之类的话。

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And it's going to be hilarious because like again, she's she's all on this like tax the billionaires like type of thing.

这会很有趣。

View/Hide Original English

And it'll be funny.

这将是一顿有趣的晚餐。

View/Hide Original English

This will be a funny dinner.

我会说:“所以,这里有一个亿万富翁。

View/Hide Original English

I'll be like, "So, here's a billionaire.

你想告诉他你想对他征多少税吗?”

View/Hide Original English

You wanna you want to tell him how much you want to tax him?"

我认为这将是一次有趣的对话。

View/Hide Original English

I think it'll be a a fun conversation.

等等,她不看你的频道吗?

View/Hide Original English

Wait, she doesn't watch your channel?

不,她从不看。

View/Hide Original English

No, she never.

伙计,她看很多YouTube。

View/Hide Original English

Dude, she watches a ton of YouTube.

她从不看我的频道。

View/Hide Original English

She never shows shows up to my channel ever.

这很有趣,因为几周前我正在和Triple V通电话,我告诉她:“嘿,我妹妹想狠狠地给你征税。”

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It was funny because I was on the phone with Triple V a couple weeks ago and I told her like, "Yo, my sister like wants to tax the crap out of you."

然后他让我给她发一段视频。

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And then he he told me to send her a video.

那是一段四分钟的视频,解释了税收是如何为三年级学生服务的。

View/Hide Original English

It was like a four-minute video explaining how taxes work for like third graders.

我给她看了视频,她说:“是的,这有道理,但我仍然希望亿万富翁被征税。”

View/Hide Original English

I showed her the video and she's like, "Yeah, it makes sense, but I still want billionaires to be taxed."

我说:“好的,所以现在你有一个机会。

View/Hide Original English

I was like, "All right, so now you have an opportunity.

你将和两位亿万富翁共进晚餐。

View/Hide Original English

You're going to be at dinner with two billionaires.

是时候告诉他们了。”

View/Hide Original English

It's time to tell them."

他们需要被征多少税。

View/Hide Original English

How much they need to be taxed.

是时候进行一次对话了。

View/Hide Original English

It's time to have a conversation.

所以,Amit要带他妹妹去烧烤。

View/Hide Original English

So, Amit's taking his sister to roster.

不,我确实希望她见到他们,那会很有趣。

View/Hide Original English

No, I do want I do want her to meet them, though, and it'll be fun.

那会是一次很好的对话。

View/Hide Original English

It'll be a good conversation.

然后Steve也会在那里,那也会很好。

View/Hide Original English

And then we'll have Steve there, so that'll be good as well.

好的,我想就是这样了。

View/Hide Original English

All right, I think that's it.

再次,感谢大家的到来。

View/Hide Original English

Again, thank you everybody for being here.

周一、周二、周三,这几天都很有趣,我们继续保持上涨。

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It's been a fun couple of days, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, as we continue into the green.

我们必须看看这在12月份能否持续。

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We got to see if this ends up holding up for December.

如果能,我认为这将是一个有趣的年终。

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And if it does, I think it'll be a fun end of year.

嗯,但最重要的事情,我认为是我们收复了一些非常关键的水平。

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Um, but the most important thing I think is that we recovered some really key levels.

回到这些关键水平并不容易。

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And getting to these key levels was not easy to get back to.

市场在过去几天几乎让它看起来很容易,但实际上,这需要整个降息叙事的转变,需要人工智能交易获得更多动力,不再像泡沫,尽管Michael Burry(电影《大空头》原型,对市场持悲观态度)仍然在说这些。

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The market almost made it seem easy over the past couple days, but realistically, it took this whole narrative flip on the rate cuts took a lot more momentum on the AI trade not seeming like it was a bubble, even though you have, you know, Michael Bur still saying all this stuff.

我认为你还需要市场意识到经济状况并没有那么糟糕,我们过去几天获得的劳动力市场数据也证实了这一点。

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And I think you also just needed the market realizing like things aren't that bad in the economy and the labor market data we got over the past couple days kind of confirmed that.

所以劳动力市场正在走弱,但没有恶化,这意味着有降息的理由。

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So labor market's weakening. It's not deteriorating which means there's a case for a rate cut.

人工智能交易完好无损,这就是你获得牛市的地方。

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AI trade intact and that's what that's where you get your bull market.

好的,就是这样。

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All right, there we go.

感谢大家。

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Thank you everybody.

感谢你们所有人。

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Appreciate you all.

爱你们所有人。

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Love you all.

深深地感谢每天在这里的每一个人。

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Deeply deeply appreciate everyone being here every single day.

嗯,我们周一回来。

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Uh we'll be back on Monday.

嘿,我认为这是我们一段时间以来最长的休息了。

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Hey, I think this is the longest break we've taken in a while.

所以,明天、周五、周六或周日都没有节目。

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So, no show tomorrow, Friday, Saturday or Sunday.

再次,周日晚上会和家人在一起。

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Again, Sunday night going to be with family.

但周一早上,我们会直播。

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But Monday morning, we'll be live.

周一开始2025年的最后一个月。

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And Monday starts the last month of 2025.

再次,我仍然无法相信,伙计。

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Which again, I still can't believe that, dude.

我仍然无法相信。

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I still can't believe it.

最后一个月,我真的无法相信。

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Last month, I really can't believe it.

但我们正在结束今年的最后一个月,然后我们进入2026年,然后我们将不得不应对新的一年中的大量不同挑战。

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But we're ending out last month of the year and then we enter 2026 and then we're going to have to navigate a ton of different challenges within the new year.

但天哪,仅仅度过2025年本身就已经有点疯狂了。

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But my goodness, just getting through 2025 itself has been kind of crazy.

好的,就是这样。

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Well, that's it.

我们结束了这一年,这是一个很棒的一年,有很多不同的机会,显然如果这个市场能以绿色收盘,我们距离连续三年20%的增长只有5%的差距。

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We ending up the year has been a great year with a lot of different opportunities and obviously if this market can end out green, we are 5% away from having three back to back to back 20% years.

所以这对每个人和更广泛的市场也非常重要。

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So that would also be very important for everyone and the broader markets.

好的,感谢大家。

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All right, thank everybody.

深深地感谢你们所有人。

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Deeply grateful for all of you.

我们周一见。

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I will see you guys on Monday.

享受与家人共度的时光。

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Enjoy the time with your family.

如果你不庆祝感恩节,那就享受假期。

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If you don't celebrate Thanksgiving, enjoy the time off.

市场周五会再次开放。

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Markets again will be open on Friday.

不会开放太久。

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Won't be open for too long.

下午1点是半天交易。

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It'll be a half day at 1 p.m.

我认为Steve会在感恩节直播。

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And I think Steve is streaming on Thanksgiving.

他告诉我他会。

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He told me he would.

所以他可能会直播。

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So he might end up streaming.

如果他不直播,那我们周一再回来,然后从那里继续。

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If he doesn't, then we'll be back on Monday and we'll keep going from there.

感谢大家。

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Thank you everybody.

非常感谢。

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Appreciate it.

爱你们所有人,我们周一见。

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Love you all and we'll see you guys on Monday.

再见大家。

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Bye everybody.

祝大家一切顺利。

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Have a good one.