All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close. Let me know immediately if my audio is not doing too good. I think it should be okay, but if it's not, let me know. We are live. We are live. It's one of those days. We've had a few days to say the least that have been nothing but red.

And well, you got a little bit of a change. You got a little bit of a change on a day like this. Nebus is up 10%. Google is pushing 319, up 7%, $3.85 trillion market cap. Tesla's at 418. Amazon's up 2.3. Bit mine is up 20% on the day. I mean, Ethereum is not up 20%. So, obviously, you got people that are buying into BMR a bit more aggressively than Ethereum. SoFi is up 8%. Palunteer's up 7%. Robin Hood's up 8%. Micron's up 8%. Meta is up 3.5. S&P 500 very close to breaking 670. We got 13 minutes left until the market closes. Maybe we will close above 670. We're at 669. ESTs is up six. Rocket Lab's up five. Cipher's up 15. Oscar is up 22. Lemonade's up seven. D-Wave's up 13. Grab is up seven. Apple's up two.

Why is this happening? Why are we going so green after what has felt like quite literally a month even though it's been about three weeks of nothing but red?

Well, first of all, before I give the reason, uh, put a poll right there in the chat. Do you trust it? Do you trust it? That is the question that I'm curious to see everyone's perspective on. Do you trust it? I think throughout the entirety of the day, everyone has been kind of struggling uh to figure out if they're going to trust it or not, but there might be a good enough reason to trust it.

This came out about an hour ago and uh this is what I think really solidified a lot of the green that we are seeing today. I mean, we were already green, but this headline is what really I think got us to end up potentially closing green. One of the Fed presidents from the San Francisco Federal Reserve is backing a rate cut.

There you go. Last Friday, John Williams, the Fed president of the New York Fed, said that uh he would likely have a rate cut. He is seen as a proxy to PAL. Not all Fed presence are created equal. The NYC one, the San Francisco one, they tend to matter a lot more. Obviously, JPL, the Fed chair, matters the most. That sent odds from 30% to 75% on Friday.

Today, literally an hour ago, at 2:55 p.m. Eastern, you had Mary Dailyaly from the San Francisco Fed say that she supports a rate cut. She's citing the weak labor market. And now the probabilities on a rate cut are at 50 or sorry, 81%, 80.9, which is significantly higher than where we've been at for a long time. I mean, it's the highest we've seen over the past couple weeks.

And so, I think that's the reason. I think Mary saved the day. Mary and John Williams together seem to have saved the day.

You got a lot of other headlines that are pretty bullish that we'll talk about. You had Trump say some good things about China. You have Amazon. Remember, they were investing 50 billion in the morning for data centers in Virginia for the United States government. They're investing another 15 billion in Indiana, which we'll talk about. It's just incredible the size of investment that they are putting up there. Google right there 318.884. But realistically, I think the Fed rate cut probabilities going higher is what the market really cared about.

Nvidia right there, they're up 1.42% on the day. The fact that they got confirmation from a second leading Fed president, that was a big deal. Oh, it's 85%. Wow, I just refreshed. You guys are right. 85. Okay, I guess I forgot to refresh. I had it at 80.9.

There you go. I mean, it is almost inevitable at this point when the Fed probabilities get this high. And the reason I'm saying that is because JPAL tends to not be a Fed president, just historically how he's governed, uh, to give the market a surprise. So if if it's really leaning towards one way or the other, he's probably going to give you what the market is suggesting. Now maybe something happens over the coming days. Maybe we get some crazy inflation data and that probability goes to the downside. But you only have about three weeks left until this Fed meeting on December 10th. And that right there is what I think we are uh seeing from a rate cut probability that's getting the market to go great.

The other piece of good news this morning was Trump and China. So, he tweeted this right after the market open was done. But Trump said, "We had a great call with China. The China relationship is strong. We're making significant progress." And he says he'll be visiting Beijing in April. And President Xi will be visiting in America. Now, we saw some of President Xi's comments this morning as well to Chinese state media. Basically said the same thing. So, both leaders are in agreement in terms of how they're talking about the relationship between the United States and China. China has already started exporting some of the rare earths and buying some of the soybeans from the United States, but those probabilities of rate cuts going higher um have really made a difference. And obviously Trump being buddy buddy with China, that also helps.

So the big question is, do you trust it? Do you trust the green? 62% of you in the chat say you trust the green. 37% say no, not yet. Uh, I think that's a reasonable spit uh split 6040.

S&P right here trying to go for 670 towards the end of the day in these last five minutes. There you go. 670. Wow. You just had a massive red candle on a Nebus and that's coming right back and on Palunteer. That's coming right back. And then you had a little bit of a red candle on the S&P. Not as big as on Nebius, but that one's reversing.

Wow. Nvidia getting Look at that. Look at that. Right into the closing video. 18328 up 2.44%. Um, wow. Lots of back and forth. I mean, just saw some deep red candles. Old those are getting reversed right here. And definitely on the index index level might be potentially getting reversed. 669 right here on the S&P 500.

Again, it's a green day. Market looks like it wants to end out green. We're going to find out over the coming days if this is a real trend. Bitcoin and Ethereum I think are kind of your leading indicators right here of risk on which ironically the stock market has been following Bitcoin.

I mean bit obviously Bitcoin's uh delta towards the S&P has taken a much bigger dump because it's more volatile but nonetheless Bitcoin has gone down the market's gone down. Bitcoin has gone up the market has transitioned.

I think I think when you get punched multiple times in a week for multiple weeks in a row, uh you start to remember how special it is to see equities actually go up and have your capital compound. And it's not easy. This is why this game is so hard. But, uh after a grueling couple weeks, it is nice to see a little bit of reprieve.

And again, it's not just because, you know, ALGO stocks are just going up for the hell of it. Obviously, that's a part of it. It really is this rate cut. Just like last week, you had Algos and margin calls, etc. compound on the one piece of bad news which was that rate probabilities went to 30%. You're seeing the exact opposite happen this time. You're seeing alos and system systemic buying versus selling compound on the one piece of good news that goes against the narrative we had last week which is that we might get the rate cut. So last week the story was not getting the rate cut. This week the story is getting the rate cut. And I think that's why you're seeing a sort of major U-turn right there.

Another update for why the market might be loving all the news that we're seeing is on Amazon. So, we talked about this in the morning. Amazon is investing up to $50 billion to expand AI infrastructure and data centers.

Amazon's investing 50 billion for computing infrastructure for US government agencies. This came out an hour ago. Uh Amazon is now investing another 15 billion in northern Indiana to build new data center campuses and advance AI innovation. This is going to create 1100 jobs as per their website and support new workforce development training programs and local community projects. It's also going to add 2.4 gawatts of uh electricity to the entire state.

So you have two really major announcements in the world of AI and data centers. We also have some updates from Claude and Alibaba that we'll talk about as well. But um 50 billion in the United States government infrastructure investments and now 15 billion for an overall data center they're building in Indiana. It's just quite incredible.

And you got other people saying that all this data center stuff is a bubble. And then you have Amazon saying we are going to put more of our money into it. Which again I think just combats a little bit of the narrative.

Uh, Michael Bur just tweeted, "In Nvidia, Nvidia emailed a memo to Wall Street sellside analysts to push back on my arguments. I stand by my analysis. Obviously, the full analysis does not fit in a tweet. I will release on my timeline." And then he plugs the substack.

Okay, he is right. Nvidia did email a bunch of uh Wall Street analysts and said that Bur's arguments are kind of dumb. So, he is right about that. Here's the exact picture right here. Nvidia published an official rebuttal against the claims about the company and they literally cited Michael Bur's tweets on X.

Looks like Bur just got into a uh tweet war with the most valuable company in the world. And quite frankly, it's got to be good for business. Bur is charging $380 a year. His Substack has like 40,000 subscribers. I mean, even if 50% of those people paid the subscription, which you would imagine even more would pay for that. I mean, the dude's making millions as a Substack writer. And so, if you're in a beef with the most important company on the planet,

by the way, uh, Business Insider published some of his content and uh, he he he in one of the tweets or in one of the articles, he has a segment where he he quite literally calls Nvidia Cisco. He says Nvidia is once again this market Cisco. And um so he's going back and forth. He is going back and forth.

This was the exact quote. And once again, there's a Cisco at the center of it all with the picks and shovels for all and the expansive vision to go with it. He writes after noting that Cisco plunged 78% during the crash. Its name is Nvidia.

So, it looks like Nvidia took it seriously, published their response to the official sellside analysts, and Michael is going to go back and forth with I mean, if anything, it's going to create a really good intellectual project of going back and forth to discuss all the nuances of the nature of AI in this bull market.

So, you did have David Saxs and then we'll get into some of the AI headlines. the AISAR tweet. Um, something that I think is very indicative of what the administration is going to be saying. So, uh, David Sax says, "According to today's Wall Street Journal, AI investment accounts for half of GDP growth." This is exactly what we talked about last week, that capex was half of GDP over the past couple years, basically since 2023. A reversal would risk recession. We can't afford to go backwards.

I I mean like if Trump signs anything that is rude. I mean Trump did have a tweet last week about the federal AI standards versus the statebased standards. So maybe it's an executive order kind of trying to nationalize what standards should look like for AI. Uh Trump knows there's no way that we can risk a recession by stopping the AI growth. That is, you know, that's why he asked Zucks, "How much are you spending?" When he had that meeting with him, he wanted to make sure that Zux was spending a lot of money. Amazon spending a lot of money, Microsoft. So all that capex spend is going to be incredibly important to continue this bull market to go further

based on reporting. It's going to be kind of like a Manhattan project but for AI. So really encouraging laboratories in the US uh national federal laboratories, public private partnerships, uh energy, basically trying to bring all these different components together to really boost and increase AI dominance within the US.

Anthropic, they launched a new model today. Here's the update on that model and obviously Google and Amazon have a stake in this company as well.

So Anthropic is launching its most powerful model yet. It's called Opus 4.5 and it is the new flagship of the Claude family built for advanced coding, aentic workflows, and enterprise tasks like financial modeling. The update includes new Excel and Chrome tools and a feature called infinite chat that prevents memory cut offs and long conversations. And it comes as Enthropic commits more than 80 billion dollars to compute over the next decade, including a new spend commitment with Microsoft Azure and its own custommade data centers across the United States.

But in terms of this model race, some would argue that Anthropic's chief rival is now Google Gemini 3. It hit the top of the benchmarks last week. Salesforce's Mark Beni off said he would never go back to chat GBT after using Gemini 3. So we're really seeing this rivalry heat up.

Baba, that was up 5%. Their new chatbot against OpenAI has hit 10 million downloads in a week. But it reinforces the pattern that Wall Street is starting to appreciate in the AI era. And that is that real breakout products come from companies with the full system. That means models, distribution, infrastructure, data. It's a proof point for Alibaba, much like Gemini 3 was for Google last week, that the company has something that its rivals do not, and that is a full stack or an endtoend system.

Look at how the two companies compare over the last year. Both basically dismissed early in the AI era, but two of the biggest winners this year, nearly doubling their stock price. And when it comes to having a complete ecosystem, they both have their own models. They both have cloud businesses, established products with tons of data and custom silicone. though Google's TPU is much further along here.

Now Alibaba reports tomorrow morning Dom and the question for investors is whether the same bull thesis powering Google can now travel to Alibaba. As we showed you shares have doubled this year both those companies but the valuation there's a difference here Alibaba still lags at about 23 times forward earnings.

400 p.m. Monday, November 24th. The stock market is now closed. All right, we are done for the day. Last week of November, one of four trading days this week. S&P 500 closes up one and a half% green on the day. 668.881 for the S&P 500. Nvidia 18255 that was up about 2% on the day. Amazon right there at 226. That was also up 2.53%.

Google wow gets the 318 close. Very exciting to see 6% 3.84 trillion. They are now worth more than Microsoft for the first time in seven years. Google is inching up there in terms of that $4 trillion market cap.

Uh Zoom beat by 6% on EPS 152 versus 144. Revenue 1.23 versus 1.21 billion. That's a beat on the top and the bottom. Revenue is up 4% year-over-year. EPS is up 10% yearover-year. Zoom with a double beat.

Wow. SanDisk SM. Oh, I know some bear. The amount of bears on this name on X, they've got to be pissed right now. Not only was this up 13% on the day, it's up 9% after hours. They're replacing interpublic in the S&P 500.

what makes a a vibrant derivatives market is three different market participants In equilibrium, you have the speculators who have a point of view on what the price should be and they're speculating. Uh, and some people call speculators gamblers, but if the technical derivatives parlance, it's it's speculators. But you need them also because you also have the a hedgers. And the hedgers are trying to offload risk. But not everyone can be hedging because then the price gets out of whack. So you need the speculators to actually bring the hedgers into equilibrium. And then you have the third group which is the arbitrageers. The arbitrurers are basically playing a lowrisk, low latency game.

Vlad's been talking a lot more about AI leading to an ecosystem where people get to do more things for fun. And Elon's been talking about money is going to be pointless in the future. Uh, you know, jobs are going to be optional, etc.

he says more and more people will be paid to play games and do other jobs that we think of of leisure now consider chess one of the first intellectual domains in which AI achieved superhuman performance people were saying chess was dead after Deep Blue beat uh Kasparov in 1997. Now nearly 30 years later, the chess industry is 5 to 10x bigger with over 3x the grand masters and there's tons of influencers that literally have built a career off playing chess.

I think he's kind of implying that there is a world in which more people will be using prediction markets, using the stock market, using different forms of arbitrage as a way to make a living if you have labor ultimately get commoditized and you have the insight for more creativity,

By the way, there was a podcast, I didn't listen to the whole thing last night, but the founder of Stability AI, he did a podcast last night and he says, "We have a thousand days, I'll link the pod if anyone wants to listen to it. He says, "We have a thousand days before um AI completely starts destroying the entire job market." And I don't know if you want to say he's a bit of a doomer. I mean, he has an AI company. There's definitely some doomerism in how he's talking about it. But I was just curious to hear the perspective. And the perspective is that AI is getting so good that most jobs his argument is AI will essentially end capitalism

which if you take it to its logical extreme yeah I mean it technically could if everyone loses their jobs and there's no goods or services being produced because no one can afford it. But will it also in entice forms of capitalism to create new opportunities? At least that's the optimistic view.

But if we got if we got three years, then we got three years. Let's let's make the best of it.