全球经济与地缘政治:AI泡沫、巴菲特谢幕及中国经济困境 LT視界 2025-11-11

美国就业市场与AI冲击:华尔街的担忧

大家好,我们一起来分享今天不能错过的重要新闻。今天是11月11日,我们首先来了解今天的财经头条,有三个方面的最新信息与网友分享。首先是《华尔街日报》的报道,ADP(Automatic Data Processing: 美国一家提供人力资本管理解决方案的公司)估计10月份美国私营部门就业人数减少。私营机构ADP今天发布报告称,私营部门每周裁员11,250人。新知公司(ADP报告显示)截止10月25日的四周内,私营部门每周裁员11,250人。由于政府停摆期间官方的就业数据被推迟发布,所以来自ADP的就业数据就成为华尔街判断美国就业市场最重要的信息来源。

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Hello everyone, let's share today's important news that you can't miss. Today is November 11th. We'll start with today's financial headlines, sharing three pieces of the latest information with our viewers. First is a report from The Wall Street Journal, ADP estimates that U.S. private sector employment decreased in October. Private firm ADP released a report today stating that 11,250 people were laid off weekly in the private sector. The ADP report shows that in the four weeks ending October 25th, 11,250 people were laid off weekly in the private sector. Due to the delay in official employment data during the government shutdown, ADP's employment data has become the most important source of information for Wall Street to assess the U.S. job market.

这个信息加剧了市场投资者对美国就业问题的担忧。实际上,LT视界(主持人自称)之前与网友分享过,从现实生活的感受来看,美国的就业状况比官方公布的数据要糟糕得多。而且今年以来的失业潮与往年的经济衰退出现的失业潮不一样,往年经济衰退时出现的失业潮主要还是低技术的一些岗位,而今年的失业潮的主角成了科技人员和管理人员。这些人也是美国中产阶级中等甚至中等偏上的那些阶层。所以,这不仅给经济带来重大影响,也给美国的立国基础——政治社会基础的中产阶级的信心带来了动摇。

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This information has intensified market investors' concerns about U.S. employment issues. In fact, LT previously shared with viewers that, from a real-life perspective, the U.S. employment situation is much worse than the officially released data suggests. Moreover, this year's wave of layoffs differs from those seen in previous economic recessions. In past recessions, layoffs primarily affected low-skilled positions, whereas this year, the main victims of layoffs are technology and management personnel. These individuals belong to the middle or even upper-middle strata of the American middle class. Therefore, this not only has a significant impact on the economy but also shakes the confidence of the middle class, which forms the political and social foundation of the United States.

所以这个问题,LT感觉唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump: 前美国总统)政府还是非常低估了它的存在。现在美国的经济与过去几十年的不太一样了,一方面大规模裁员,另一方面经济高速增长,这是以往美国经济形态从未出现过的状况。新技术的应用,特别是人工智能(Artificial Intelligence: 模拟人类智能的机器能力)的革命,给社会形态和传统的经济结构都带来了重大的冲击。但是目前无论是政府还是社会舆论都没有做好这种准备,不知道其他国家是否也出现这种情况,但美国的这种突如其来的变革也好,变化也好,整个社会是有一点措手不及的。

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So, LT feels that the Trump administration has greatly underestimated the existence of this problem. The current U.S. economy is different from what it has been for decades: on one hand, large-scale layoffs, and on the other, high economic growth. This is a situation that has never occurred in previous U.S. economic patterns. The application of new technologies, especially the artificial intelligence revolution, has brought significant impacts to social structures and traditional economic frameworks. However, currently, neither the government nor public opinion is prepared for this. It's unclear if other countries are experiencing similar situations, but this sudden transformation or change in the U.S. has caught the entire society somewhat off guard.

AI投资泡沫的担忧:软银出售英伟达股份

第二个相关的最新信息,这也是今天华尔街焦点议论的问题。我们分享《彭博社》的报道,软银(SoftBank: 日本一家跨国综合企业集团)出售英伟达(Nvidia: 美国一家设计和销售图形处理器、芯片组和相关多媒体软件的公司)的股份,套现58亿美元用于人工智能的投资。日本软银集团以58.3亿美元的价格出售了其所有的英伟达股票。软银的解释是,它卖掉所有英伟达股票是为了筹集人工智能领域投资的资金。它的潜台词就是说,我不是说英伟达有什么问题我才把它卖掉,我只是需要钱投人工智能。

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The second piece of related news, also a focal point of discussion on Wall Street today, is from Bloomberg. SoftBank sold its Nvidia shares, cashing out $5.8 billion for investment in artificial intelligence. The Japanese SoftBank Group sold all of its Nvidia stock for $5.83 billion. SoftBank's explanation was that it sold all its Nvidia shares to raise funds for investments in the artificial intelligence sector. The subtext was, "I'm not selling Nvidia because there's a problem with it; I just need money to invest in AI."

这个解释华尔街今天显然不买账,因为所谓的人工智能领域的投资,英伟达现在是如日中天,而且还处在上升期。而且软银之前给舆论的解释是,他们要筹集更多的钱投资英伟达。那么为什么今天突然出现这个大消息呢?是因为美国证券会要公布软银的一些资料,不得不公开,所以软银就做了这么一个解释。显然软银的这个决策,或者上个月的这个举动,给今天的英伟达的股价乃至整个美国股市带来了非常大的负面冲击。你不管怎么解释,至少在软银看来,继续持有英伟达并不能给他们带来更多的利益。

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Wall Street clearly isn't buying this explanation today, because when it comes to investments in the artificial intelligence sector, Nvidia is currently soaring and still in its growth phase. Moreover, SoftBank had previously explained to the public that they intended to raise more capital to invest in Nvidia. So why did this big news suddenly emerge today? It's because the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was about to release some of SoftBank's data, which had to be made public, prompting SoftBank to offer this explanation. Clearly, SoftBank's decision, or its action last month, has had a significant negative impact on Nvidia's stock price today and the entire U.S. stock market. Regardless of the explanation, at least from SoftBank's perspective, continuing to hold Nvidia shares would not bring them greater benefits.

所以它又让上周市场质疑人工智能领域的泡沫的舆论又卷土重来。今天软银的财务长后藤芳光(Yoshimitsu Goto: 软银集团首席财务官)在财报会上讲了一段话,这让国际财经媒体广泛议论。他说:“我无法断言我们是否正处于人工智能的泡沫之中。”那么这个就有一点此地无银三百两,或者你也可以把它理解成软银它也担心人工智能泡沫(Artificial Intelligence Bubble: 指对人工智能技术及其相关公司的投资估值过高,脱离实际价值的现象)。它现在是人工智能领域投资最激进的公司,所以它也开始审视了。

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Consequently, last week's market skepticism about a bubble in the artificial intelligence sector has resurfaced. Today, SoftBank's CFO, Yoshimitsu Goto, made a statement during the earnings call that has been widely discussed by international financial media. He said, "I cannot definitively say whether we are in an AI bubble." This statement is somewhat like "protesting too much," or you could interpret it as SoftBank also being concerned about an artificial intelligence bubble. It is currently the most aggressive company investing in the AI sector, and so it has begun to scrutinize the situation.

所以这样整个市场追捧人工智能投资的投资者们都吓出一身冷汗。LT认为这个新闻还会发酵的。上星期制造美国科技板块大跌的做空公司的CEO今天又再次发出了这样一种警告,仍然在提示人工智能领域投资的泡沫。所以LT建议网友们琢磨一下这个问题,就大家不要简单的人云亦云,这次对人工智能的质疑,大家认真去鉴别一下。舆论的焦点是非常精准的,它并非质疑人工智能,就没有人说现在人工智能没有那么快的发展,影响没有那么大,没有人这么质疑。

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As a result, investors across the market who have been chasing AI investments broke out in a cold sweat. LT believes this news will continue to develop. The CEO of the short-selling firm that caused a major drop in the U.S. tech sector last week issued a similar warning again today, still highlighting the investment bubble in the artificial intelligence field. Therefore, LT advises viewers to ponder this issue and not simply follow the crowd. Everyone should carefully discern the current skepticism surrounding AI. The focus of public opinion is very precise; it's not questioning AI itself. No one is saying that AI isn't developing rapidly or that its impact isn't significant; no one is raising such doubts.

因为什么呢?因为你现在人工智能的应用已经在美国制造了大量的失业。因为这些老板们假如人工智能不解决问题的话,他不敢去大规模地解雇员工,用人工智能取代来影响他的经营效益。这些企业之所以相信人工智能技术,说明了这个技术的应用会给他们带来利益。那么现在华尔街质疑的是什么呢?他质疑的是投资的泡沫太大。至于上个世纪90年代的互联网泡沫,既存在投资的泡沫,也存在夸大互联网技术对经济的影响。

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Why? Because the current application of artificial intelligence has already created significant unemployment in the United States. If AI didn't solve problems, these bosses wouldn't dare to lay off employees on a large scale, replacing them with AI to impact their operating efficiency. The fact that these companies trust AI technology indicates that its application will bring them benefits. So, what is Wall Street questioning now? It's questioning that the investment bubble is too large. Regarding the internet bubble of the 1990s, there was both an investment bubble and an exaggeration of the internet's impact on the economy.

那么这一次实际上到目前为止,华尔街舆论在这个问题上并不清晰的。当然这个呢也只是LT自己的一些判断,未必对,也许人工智能技术本身被高估这种现象也存在。那么也欢迎网友们对这个问题在评论区发表高见。

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However, regarding this issue, Wall Street opinion is not clear so far. Of course, these are just some of LT's own judgments, and they may not be correct; perhaps the phenomenon of AI technology itself being overestimated also exists. We welcome viewers to share their insights on this issue in the comments section.

第三个相关的最新信息,LT只分享一些标题。这是《华尔街日报》旗下的市场观察(MarketWatch: 财经新闻网站)的一个很有意思的文章,标题是“富国银行建议锁定科技股收益,转而投资其他领域”。那么这篇文章呢,它希望给它的客户指明方向,就美国的高科技板块涨到这个程度差不多了,随后呢风险会比较大,你如果盈利了的话,不如卖掉变现,然后去投资其他领域。那么这个建议啊,或者这个指明方向对与不对,LT认为呢,网友们可以去琢磨一下,至少有人在提这个建议。

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For the third related piece of news, LT will only share some headlines. This is an interesting article from MarketWatch, a subsidiary of The Wall Street Journal, titled "Wells Fargo Advises Locking In Tech Stock Gains, Shifting to Other Sectors." This article aims to guide its clients, suggesting that the U.S. high-tech sector has risen enough, and the risks will be higher going forward. If you've made a profit, it might be better to sell and cash out, then invest in other areas. Whether this advice or direction is right or wrong, LT believes viewers can ponder it; at least someone is offering this suggestion.

印巴冲突升级:核武对手间的紧张局势

第二条与网友分享的重要新闻,这是《华尔街日报》的报道,标题是“印度和巴基斯坦互相指责爆炸攻击”。这印度和巴基斯坦呢又不消停了。这个报道的副标题是“就在印度总理誓言要找到昨天一起致命爆炸案的肇事者之际,巴基斯坦的指控也随之而来”。今天巴基斯坦方面指责印度支持的武装分子在周二伊斯兰堡(Islamabad: 巴基斯坦首都)发动自杀式炸弹袭击,造成12人死亡,这加剧了两个拥有核武的对手之间紧张局势升级的可能性。

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The second important news item to share with viewers is a report from The Wall Street Journal, titled "India and Pakistan Accuse Each Other of Bomb Attacks." India and Pakistan are restless again. The subtitle of the report is, "As India's Prime Minister Vows to Find Perpetrators of Deadly Blast Yesterday, Pakistan's Accusations Follow." Today, Pakistan accused Indian-backed militants of carrying out a suicide bomb attack in Islamabad on Tuesday, killing 12 people, which heightened the possibility of escalating tensions between the two nuclear-armed rivals.

同时印度总理也发誓要追捕前一天新德里(New Delhi: 印度首都)发生的汽车爆炸案的肇事者。印度警方称,周一新德里历史悠久的红堡附近地铁站发生了爆炸,引燃附近多辆汽车,造成8人死亡,至少20人受伤。警方表示,爆炸车辆内有3-4名乘客,全部在爆炸中丧生。爆炸原因尚未确定。新德里警方发言人迪亚吉(Dyagi)表示,在警方进行初步调查后,该案移交给印度首屈一指的反恐机构,即国家调查局(National Investigation Agency: 印度联邦政府的主要反恐机构)。

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At the same time, the Indian Prime Minister also vowed to hunt down the perpetrators of a car bombing that occurred in New Delhi the previous day. Indian police stated that an explosion occurred near the historic Red Fort metro station in New Delhi on Monday, igniting several nearby cars, killing 8 people and injuring at least 20. Police said there were 3-4 passengers inside the exploded vehicle, all of whom died in the blast. The cause of the explosion has not yet been determined. New Delhi police spokesperson Dyagi stated that after preliminary police investigation, the case was handed over to India's premier counter-terrorism agency, the National Investigation Agency.

另外周二,一名自杀炸弹袭击者在巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡的一家法院外引爆了致命的爆炸。巴基斯坦总理谢里夫(Shehbaz Sharif)将造成数十人受伤的爆炸事件归咎于印度支持的恐怖分子。谢里夫今天发表的一份声明中表示,印度代理恐怖组织袭击巴基斯坦公民的行为应该受到谴责。所以从这个新闻我们能够感受到印度和巴基斯坦这两个国家之间的矛盾和冲突,它是一种常态化的行为,你不知道什么理由,不知道什么背景,隔一段时间,就来一次互相的攻击。

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Additionally, on Tuesday, a suicide bomber detonated a deadly explosion outside a courthouse in Islamabad, Pakistan. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif blamed Indian-backed terrorists for the blast, which injured dozens. In a statement released today, Sharif said that India's actions in using terrorist organizations to attack Pakistani citizens should be condemned. From this news, we can feel that the conflict and contradiction between India and Pakistan are a normalized behavior; for reasons unknown and against an unclear backdrop, every so often, they launch mutual attacks.

巴菲特谢幕:投资巨人的告别与忠告

第三条与网友分享的重要新闻,这是全球财经界、全球从事投资理财的网友非常关注的一个重大信息,就沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett: 著名投资家,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司董事长兼首席执行官)最后一次参加股东大会,他也宣布谢幕。那么对于全世界最成功的投资家,他的这次谢幕引起了全球投资者的关注。我们分享两个方面的相关的最新信息。首先我们来分享《彭博社》的报道,标题是“巴菲特谢幕信:已捐13亿美元的股票,不再写年终股东信”。

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The third important news item to share with viewers is a major piece of information that the global financial community and investors worldwide are closely watching: Warren Buffett's final attendance at a shareholder meeting, where he also announced his farewell. For the world's most successful investor, this departure has attracted global investor attention. We will share two pieces of related latest information. First, we share a Bloomberg report titled "Buffett's Farewell Letter: $1.3 Billion in Stock Donated, No More Year-End Shareholder Letters."

昨天巴菲特公布了感谢公开信,95岁高龄的股神巴菲特在为他卸任伯克希尔哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway: 沃伦·巴菲特担任董事长和首席执行官的多元化控股公司)公司CEO做最后的安排,将加速向子女的基金会转移1490亿美元的遗产,同时保留足够的伯克希尔A类股份(Class A Shares: 通常拥有更高的投票权和/或不同的股息政策,且价格较高)帮助接班的格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel: 巴菲特的指定接班人)赢得股东的信任。巴菲特在信上称,总体而言伯克希尔的业务前景略好于平均水平,有几个不相关的大型优质资产盈利,但从现在起的一二十年后,将有许多公司表现优于伯克希尔,我们的规模会带来代价。

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Yesterday, Warren Buffett released a public thank-you letter. The 95-year-old "Oracle of Omaha" is making final arrangements for his retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, accelerating the transfer of $149 billion of his estate to his children's foundations, while retaining enough Berkshire Class A shares to help his successor, Greg Abel, earn shareholders' trust. Buffett stated in the letter that, overall, Berkshire's business prospects are slightly better than average, with several unrelated large, high-quality assets generating profits. However, he noted that many companies would outperform Berkshire in the next one to two decades, as their scale comes with a cost.

第二个我们来分享《华尔街日报》今天的报道,他把巴菲特最后一封致股东的信做了一些解析。《华尔街日报》报道的标题是“悄悄离场:巴菲特担任执行长的最后一封信的九大要点”。巴菲特在一年一度的感恩节信件开头就写道:“我要暂时安静下来,算事吧。”《华尔街日报》把巴菲特最后一份致股东的信进行了解析,他提炼了九个要点。

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Second, we share today's report from The Wall Street Journal, which analyzed Warren Buffett's final letter to shareholders. The Wall Street Journal's report is titled "Quiet Exit: Nine Key Takeaways from Buffett's Last Letter as CEO." Buffett began his annual Thanksgiving letter by writing, "I'm going to be quiet for a while, so be it." The Wall Street Journal analyzed Buffett's final letter to shareholders, distilling nine key points.

第一是巴菲特谈自己。他说自己的整体感觉良好,尽管他能感受到年龄的增长对平衡感、视力、听力、记忆力的影响。他说:“虽然我行动缓慢,阅读也越来越困难,但我每周五天都去办公室,和一群很棒的人一起工作。”第二个巴菲特谈到慈善。这位亿万富翁将价值约13亿美元的股票转换为其他的股票,并捐赠给了四个家属基金会,这是最新的一笔捐赠。

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First, Buffett spoke about himself. He said he felt generally good, although he could feel the effects of aging on his balance, vision, hearing, and memory. He stated, "Although I move slowly and reading becomes increasingly difficult, I still go to the office five days a week and work with a wonderful group of people." Second, Buffett discussed philanthropy. The billionaire converted approximately $1.3 billion worth of stock into other shares and donated them to four family foundations, marking the latest contribution.

第三他谈到了伯克希尔公司。尽管他加快了对子女基金会的慈善捐赠,但他对伯克希尔的乐观前景依然不变。他将持有相当数量的公司A类股票,直到股东们对他的继任者阿贝尔充满信心。这一点是很重要的。伯克希尔公司在最近的股价有些下跌,市场的普遍舆论就说之前因为巴菲特的掌舵,巴菲特的加持,是给了一些溢价的定价的,就只要巴菲特在这掌舵,投资者愿意虚增一块伯克希尔公司的股票的股价。那么随着巴菲特的退休,那么这一部分他就得会跌回去。

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Third, he discussed Berkshire Hathaway. Despite accelerating his philanthropic donations to his children's foundations, his optimistic outlook for Berkshire remains unchanged. He will hold a substantial number of the company's Class A shares until shareholders have full confidence in his successor, Abel. This point is crucial. Berkshire's stock price has recently seen some declines, and the prevailing market sentiment suggests that previously, due to Buffett's leadership and endorsement, the stock was given a premium valuation; as long as Buffett was at the helm, investors were willing to artificially inflate Berkshire's stock price. With Buffett's retirement, that premium would likely recede.

那么巴菲特这个举动呢,他就说我尽管辞去了CEO,但是呢我继续直接持有伯克希尔公司的股票,向外界传递呢,我仍然很关心这个公司,我仍然与这个公司的利益高度一致,想减缓或者减少因为他的退休呢导致的伯克希尔的股价过多的下跌。那么第四个重点呢,谈到继任计划。巴菲特是这样评价他的继承者阿贝尔,他说他是一位杰出的管理者,一位不知疲倦的工作者,也是一位坦诚的沟通者。祝愿他任期长久,我希望他身体健康,未来几十年都能如此。如果运气好的话,伯克希尔在未来一个世纪里应该只需要5到6位首席执行官。

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Regarding this move, Buffett stated that although he resigned as CEO, he continues to directly hold Berkshire Hathaway's stock, signaling to the outside world that he still cares deeply about the company and remains highly aligned with its interests, aiming to slow down or reduce any excessive decline in Berkshire's stock price caused by his retirement. The fourth key point discusses the succession plan. Buffett described his successor, Abel, as an outstanding manager, a tireless worker, and a candid communicator. He wished him a long tenure, hoping he would remain healthy for decades to come. If fortunate, Berkshire should only need five to six CEOs over the next century.

第五个重点呢,是巴菲特谈到了他的家乡奥马哈(Omaha: 美国内布拉斯加州最大的城市,巴菲特的故乡)。他在最后这份致股东信当中,用了两页多的篇幅来描述他生活的城市奥马哈的美好生活,以及内布拉斯加州的同乡们成功的一些业绩,其中包括巴菲特的挚友查理·芒格(Charlie Munger: 巴菲特的长期商业伙伴和伯克希尔哈撒韦副董事长)和可口可乐(Coca-Cola: 著名饮料公司)的前总裁唐·吉奥(Don Keough: 可口可乐公司前总裁)。巴菲特信中说:“回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我之所以能够取得比我居住的其他任何地方都更好的成绩,正是因为我们扎根于奥马哈。美国中部是一个非常适合出生、养家糊口和创业的地方。”

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The fifth key point is Buffett's discussion of his hometown, Omaha. In his final letter to shareholders, he dedicated over two pages to describing the good life in Omaha, the city where he lives, and the successful achievements of his fellow Nebraskans, including his close friend Charlie Munger and former Coca-Cola president Don Keough. Buffett wrote in his letter, "Looking back, I believe that Berkshire and I have been able to achieve better results than anywhere else I have lived precisely because we are rooted in Omaha. The American Midwest is a wonderful place to be born, raise a family, and start a business."

那么去年LT也与网友分享,就专门开车去了奥马哈,也专门到巴菲特家里面住的那个小区转来转去,还与网友们进行了分享。所以巴菲特它的确值得我们从事投资理财的网友来敬仰。第六个重点,巴菲特谈到了嫉妒。巴菲特称,改革者试图通过要求公开CEO的薪酬并与普通员工的薪酬进行比较,来让CEO们难堪。他说这些良好的初衷却实在是相反,CEO们开始关注竞争对手,并向董事会辩称他们的价值更高。新规引发嫉妒而非节制。真正让那些非常富有的CEO们,毕竟他们也是人,感到不安,往往是其他CEO变得越来越富有。嫉妒和贪婪总是如影随形。

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Last year, LT also shared with viewers that he specifically drove to Omaha, and even visited the neighborhood where Buffett lives, sharing the experience with everyone. Therefore, Buffett is indeed worthy of admiration from our viewers who are engaged in investment and financial management. The sixth key point is Buffett's discussion of jealousy. Buffett stated that reformers attempted to embarrass CEOs by demanding public disclosure of their compensation and comparing it to average employee salaries. He said these good intentions actually had the opposite effect; CEOs began to focus on competitors and argue to their boards that their value was higher. The new rules sparked jealousy rather than restraint. What truly unsettles very wealthy CEOs, who are human after all, is often seeing other CEOs become even wealthier. Jealousy and greed always go hand in hand.

那么实际上他对这个现象既批评了舆论的嫉妒这些CEO,也批评了这些CEO们本身的贪得无厌。那么这个是否与埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk: 特斯拉和SpaceX的首席执行官)的万亿美元的奖励有关,就不得而知了。但是LT注意到很多美国网民在议论这个事,把他与马斯克的这个天价奖励放在一起讨论。第七个重点,巴菲特谈艰难的对话。他说:“有时优秀且忠诚的主管也会患失智症。查理·芒格和我曾多次遇到这种情况,都未能采取行动。这种疏忽可能会造成大错。董事会必须意识到这一点,并承担责任。我只能建议一点:董事们应该保持警惕,并勇于发声。”

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In fact, he criticized both public jealousy towards these CEOs and the insatiable greed of the CEOs themselves. Whether this is related to Elon Musk's trillion-dollar compensation package is unknown. However, LT noticed many American netizens discussing this, linking it to Musk's exorbitant award. The seventh key point is Buffett's discussion of difficult conversations. He said, "Sometimes excellent and loyal executives also suffer from dementia. Charlie Munger and I have encountered this situation many times and failed to take action. This oversight can lead to major mistakes. The board must be aware of this and take responsibility. I can only suggest one thing: directors should remain vigilant and dare to speak up."

那么这个呢,他还是提示不要因为信任了而放弃这种监督,特别是最聪明的管理者也容易会突然失智、突然健忘或者是犯低级错误。这他是给伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的董事们的一个提醒。第八个重点,巴菲特谈了股市的大逆转。他实际上是回顾伯克希尔公司60年间的一些历程。他说在他执掌伯克希尔哈撒韦公司60年间,公司的股价曾三次下跌了50%。所以他表示不要灰心,美国会复苏,伯克希尔的股价也会复苏。这个相信美国是几乎巴菲特每一次致股东信里面都会提到的一个观点。

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So, he is still reminding people not to abandon supervision due to trust, especially since even the smartest managers can suddenly suffer from dementia, forgetfulness, or make elementary mistakes. This is a reminder he gives to the board members of Berkshire Hathaway. The eighth key point is Buffett's discussion of major stock market reversals. He actually reviewed some of Berkshire Hathaway's journey over 60 years. He said that during his 60 years at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway, the company's stock price had fallen by 50% three times. Therefore, he expressed not to be discouraged, as America would recover, and Berkshire's stock price would also recover. This belief in America is a point Buffett mentions in almost every letter to shareholders.

那么这个实际上对所有的网友,不管你生活在世界各个角落,它都是一个有意义的提示。就在经济学界,就有一种说法,就经济学家他会优先投资自己的母国。这个他也是一种信念,就巴菲特他相信美国,他压住美国,除了他真的认为美国会很强大以外,他也是有一种投资者的精神寄托和价值归属。那么第九个方面,巴菲特谈到人生。他说:“想想你希望你的报告上怎么写,然后努力活得配得上他的生活。”他在信的结尾写道:“慎重选择你的英雄,然后仿效他们。你永远不可能完美,但你总能做得更好。”

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This is actually a meaningful reminder for all netizens, no matter where you live in the world. In the field of economics, there is a saying that economists prioritize investing in their home country. This is also a belief; Buffett believes in America, and he bets on America. Besides genuinely thinking America will be very strong, he also has a spiritual anchor and value belonging as an investor. The ninth point is Buffett's discussion of life. He said, "Think about how you want your report to read, and then strive to live a life worthy of it." At the end of his letter, he wrote, "Carefully choose your heroes, and then emulate them. You can never be perfect, but you can always do better."

那么这段话可能值得网友们去琢磨,他确实给我们指出了一种成功人生的模式:慎重选择你的英雄,然后仿效他们。你永远不可能完美,但你总能做得更好。以后有机会我们再分享巴菲特的一些思想,就不仅是在投资领域,包括在人生的领域上,他都给我们留下一些非常宝贵、非常丰富的精神财富。

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This passage might be worth pondering for netizens, as it indeed points out a model for a successful life: carefully choose your heroes, and then emulate them. You can never be perfect, but you can always do better. If there's an opportunity in the future, we will share more of Buffett's thoughts, as he has left us with very valuable and rich spiritual wealth, not only in the field of investment but also in life.

蔡英文与赖清德:两岸论述的策略差异

第四条与网友分享的重要新闻,我们分享《德国之声》的报道。昨天蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen: 台湾前总统)在德国柏林发表了一个受到广泛好评的演讲。这个报道的标题就是“蔡英文称不会把安全伙伴的支持视为理所当然”。台湾前总统蔡英文昨天在柏林自由会议(Berlin Freedom Conference: 国际政治论坛)上表示,台湾的高科技产业已经成为全球经济不可或缺的一环,在人工智能定义力量的新时代,台湾芯片产业是全球繁荣的基石。

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The fourth important news to share with viewers is a report from Deutsche Welle. Yesterday, Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's former president, delivered a widely acclaimed speech in Berlin, Germany. The report's title is "Tsai Ing-wen Says She Won't Take Security Partners' Support for Granted." Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen stated yesterday at the Berlin Freedom Conference that Taiwan's high-tech industry has become an indispensable part of the global economy, and in the new era defined by artificial intelligence, Taiwan's chip industry is the cornerstone of global prosperity.

蔡英文说这是她时隔15年再度访问德国,并提及今年11月9日是柏林墙倒塌36周年,至今仍然是民主战胜威权最鲜明的象征。她指出全球的民主制度正遭遇日益严重的挑战,近年台湾面对认知作战、资讯操纵等手段,最终也出现在了欧洲。她以乌克兰战争(Ukraine War: 俄罗斯于2022年全面入侵乌克兰的军事冲突)为例,俄罗斯除了入侵多国领空,还破坏包含海底电缆在内的关键基础设施,这显示欧洲和亚洲的威权政体所使用的手段也非常相似。

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Tsai Ing-wen stated that this was her first visit to Germany in 15 years, and she mentioned that November 9th this year marked the 36th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, which remains the clearest symbol of democracy triumphing over authoritarianism. She pointed out that democratic systems worldwide are facing increasingly severe challenges, and in recent years, Taiwan has confronted cognitive warfare and information manipulation, tactics that have ultimately appeared in Europe as well. She cited the Ukraine War as an example, noting that Russia not only invaded multiple countries' airspace but also damaged critical infrastructure, including undersea cables, demonstrating that authoritarian regimes in Europe and Asia employ very similar methods.

蔡英文表示:“我们的邻居认为,通过持续的影响行动、灰色地带、作为与军事演习,可以让台湾人陷入恐惧或麻木。但事实恰恰相反,今天台湾站在民主防线的最前线,但明天任何一个国家都有可能面临同样的挑战。”蔡英文呼吁民主国家加强合作、强化防卫,面对威权挑战,韧性是民主存续的关键。对于这个报道,LT有一个观点想与网友分享,就赖清德(Lai Ching-te: 台湾现任总统)与蔡英文两岸问题的论述完全不同,尽管他们都属于台湾本土派或者是独派(Pro-independence Faction: 台湾政治中主张台湾独立建国的派别),但是在两岸问题的叙述方式上差异非常大。

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Tsai Ing-wen stated, "Our neighbors believe that through continuous influence operations, gray zone tactics, actions, and military exercises, they can make Taiwanese people fall into fear or numbness. But the truth is quite the opposite; today, Taiwan stands on the front line of democratic defense, but tomorrow, any country could face the same challenges." Tsai Ing-wen called on democratic nations to strengthen cooperation and defense, emphasizing that resilience is key to the survival of democracy in the face of authoritarian challenges. Regarding this report, LT has a point to share with viewers: Lai Ching-te's and Tsai Ing-wen's cross-strait discourses are entirely different. Although both belong to Taiwan's localist or pro-independence factions, their approaches to narrating cross-strait issues differ significantly.

蔡英文的侧重点是强调台湾岛内的主权认可。比如她利用反送中(Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill Movement: 2019年香港爆发的大规模社会运动,反对修订《逃犯条例》),她告诫台湾人有没有主权取决于台湾人自己,这是她的一个核心观点,就是两岸问题主权立足于台湾人。她的两岸问题论述的第二个核心思想就是台湾对抗中共的性质不是统一与否,不是中国国内的问题,是民主与极权对抗的问题。而当今世界民主与极权的对抗,不仅是台湾存在这个问题,欧洲也存在这个问题。

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Tsai Ing-wen's focus is on emphasizing the internal recognition of Taiwan's sovereignty. For example, she used the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill Movement to warn Taiwanese people that whether they have sovereignty depends on themselves; this is one of her core views, meaning that sovereignty in cross-strait issues is rooted in the Taiwanese people. The second core idea of her cross-strait discourse is that the nature of Taiwan's confrontation with the CCP is not about unification or separation, nor is it an internal Chinese issue, but rather a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. And in today's world, the confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism is not only a problem for Taiwan but also for Europe.

所以说蔡英文希望建立民主与极权对抗的统一战线或者是同盟军。她变换了一种方式是争取国际社会对台湾的认可。她实际上她这个概念,你也可以说她偷换一个概念,你也可以说她一种嫁接概念,就她不要求你支持台湾的独立,但是你没有办法不支持蔡英文说的民主与极权对抗。那么欧洲也存在民主与极权的对抗,那么同理心而言,我台湾支持你对抗俄罗斯,你欧洲当然也会支持我对抗中共,因为这个不是一个主权之争,它除了主权之争以外,有价值观意识形态之争。

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Therefore, Tsai Ing-wen hopes to establish a united front or alliance against authoritarianism. She adopted a different approach to gain international recognition for Taiwan. You could say she either subtly shifted the concept or grafted a new one; she doesn't ask you to support Taiwan's independence, but you cannot help but support what Tsai Ing-wen calls the confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism. Since Europe also faces a confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism, by extension, if Taiwan supports you against Russia, Europe will naturally support me against the CCP, because this is not merely a sovereignty dispute; beyond that, it is a conflict of values and ideologies.

所以蔡英文她就把台湾的主权问题把它扩大成了一个世界性的问题。所以也是从蔡英文开始就出现了立陶宛(Lithuania: 欧洲国家,曾因支持台湾而与中国关系紧张)不顾一切地支持台湾,就出现了更多的欧洲官方与台湾的这样一种交流。所以她从另外一个角度,她争得了主权空间。那么我们再来看看赖清德的两岸论述的核心。他两岸论述的核心观点就是台湾是独立国家。他这个话告诉谁?告诉中共。

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Therefore, Tsai Ing-wen expanded Taiwan's sovereignty issue into a global one. It was also from Tsai Ing-wen's tenure that Lithuania began to support Taiwan unequivocally, leading to more official exchanges between European countries and Taiwan. So, from another perspective, she gained sovereign space. Now let's look at the core of Lai Ching-te's cross-strait discourse. His core view on cross-strait relations is that Taiwan is an independent country. Who is he telling this to? The CCP.

第二,他两岸问题的核心观点是中共没有资格谈论两岸统一,中共没有资格谈论台湾是中国的一部分。那么他的这个观点的论述,他就攻击中共的短处。比如中共宣扬台湾是中国领土一点不能少,赖清德就说俄罗斯占领你那么多点,你为什么一点都不要?而且那个点比台湾这个点大得多得多。所以你中共想侵占台湾并不是因为领土问题。那中共怎么回应?他也没办法回应。但是赖清德的这个攻击,他打疼了中共,他让中共跳起脚来。

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Second, his core view on cross-strait issues is that the CCP is not qualified to discuss cross-strait unification, nor is it qualified to discuss Taiwan as part of China. In articulating this view, he attacks the CCP's weaknesses. For example, when the CCP proclaims that Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory, Lai Ching-te retorts, "Russia occupies so many of your territories, why don't you want any of them back? And those territories are much larger than Taiwan." Therefore, the CCP's desire to invade Taiwan is not about territorial issues. How does the CCP respond? It has no way to respond. But Lai Ching-te's attack hurts the CCP, making it jump with anger.

就中共在中国国内,在中国大陆延续他的统治,是他绝对绝对第一位的利益。所谓的统一台湾,那是排第二位第三位的利益。那么赖清德为了维护台湾,他就攻击中共绝对的第一利益。所以这个确实能够打疼中国。但是对台湾有什么好处呢?台湾拿不到现实的好处。这就像美国唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump: 前美国总统)第一个任期,迈克·蓬佩奥(Mike Pompeo: 前美国国务卿)他们提出要区分中共与中国人民。这个确实能打疼中共,但是美国捞的什么好处没有呢?没有。

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For the CCP, maintaining its rule within China and on the mainland is its absolute top priority. The so-called unification of Taiwan is a secondary or tertiary interest. So, Lai Ching-te, in order to protect Taiwan, attacks the CCP's absolute primary interest. This indeed can hurt China. But what benefits does Taiwan gain from this? Taiwan doesn't get any tangible benefits. This is similar to the first term of Donald Trump, when Mike Pompeo and others proposed distinguishing between the CCP and the Chinese people. This indeed hurt the CCP, but what benefits did the U.S. gain? None.

所以美国乔·拜登(Joe Biden: 现任美国总统)政府,包括川普第二个任期,就不再沿袭去攻击中共的这个执政基础或者执政合法性的这样一个核心问题。那么是不是放弃这个问题呢?也不是。美国他还是在讲策略,因为还没有到与中共完全脱钩或者绝对对立的那一天。所以你现在没有必要在这个问题上去刺激中共。而赖清德他不管那么多,怎么让习近平(Xi Jinping: 中华人民共和国最高领导人)跳脚,怎么说。那另外一个方面,赖清德争取国际上的支持,做了什么没有呢?坦率来讲,至少有赖清德标签的这样一种观点,或者这种舆论,在国际上影响是非常非常小的。

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Therefore, the Joe Biden administration, including a potential second Trump term, no longer pursues attacking the CCP's core issue of its governing foundation or legitimacy. Is this abandoning the issue? Not exactly. The U.S. is still strategic, as it hasn't reached the point of complete decoupling or absolute confrontation with the CCP. So, there's no need to provoke the CCP on this issue right now. However, Lai Ching-te doesn't care as much; he says whatever makes Xi Jinping jump. On another front, what has Lai Ching-te done to gain international support? Frankly speaking, any views or public opinion associated with Lai Ching-te have had a very, very small impact internationally.

尽管最近萧美琴(Hsiao Bi-khim: 台湾政治人物,曾任驻美代表)的欧洲议会演讲很成功,但是那个是一个访华议员的一个组织,它不会带来有约束力的效应的。所以LT讲这个观点,就比较赖清德与蔡英文,可能会得罪一些绿营(Green Camp: 台湾政治光谱中以民主进步党为代表的政治势力,通常支持台湾独立或维持现状)的台湾的网友。LT是支持赖清德,支持民进党,但是在两岸问题叙述上来讲,LT认为蔡英文可能更智慧一些,就是含金量啊,可能会更高一些。就你究竟要达到什么目的,就你所有的话说出来之后,你能得到什么?

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Although Hsiao Bi-khim's recent speech at the European Parliament was very successful, it was given to an organization of visiting parliamentarians, and it won't have binding effects. So, when LT discusses this point, comparing Lai Ching-te and Tsai Ing-wen, it might offend some Taiwanese netizens from the Green Camp. LT supports Lai Ching-te and the Democratic Progressive Party, but in terms of cross-strait discourse, LT believes Tsai Ing-wen might be wiser, meaning her approach might have higher intrinsic value. What is your ultimate goal? What do you gain after all your words are spoken?

LT认为蔡英文她的两岸叙述的两个核心问题是非常有效的。因为第一个问题,台湾的主权问题,现在不是中共要侵略台湾,当今台湾最大的薄弱环节,对主权风险最大的不是来自中共,而是来自台湾岛内。你看中国国民党(Kuomintang: 台湾主要政党之一)主席都讲了,两岸不可能永远不统一,那就早晚要统一,或者统一是必然归属,这还了得了?连马英九(Ma Ying-jeou: 台湾前总统)当时都说不统不独不武,现在的国民党主席是统一是必由之路,这个多吓人啊。

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LT believes that Tsai Ing-wen's two core points in her cross-strait narrative are very effective. Regarding the first issue, Taiwan's sovereignty, the biggest vulnerability and risk to sovereignty in Taiwan today does not come from the CCP's potential invasion, but from within Taiwan itself. Look, even the Kuomintang chairman has stated that cross-strait relations cannot remain indefinitely ununified, implying that unification is inevitable or a destined outcome—how alarming is that? Even Ma Ying-jeou at the time advocated "no unification, no independence, no use of force," but the current Kuomintang chairman says unification is the only path. This is truly frightening.

像台湾过去的独派,时代力量(New Power Party: 台湾政党)前主席黄国昌(Huang Kuo-chang: 台湾政治人物),现在力挺自称中国人、热爱中国的一切的馆长(Curator: 台湾知名网络名人陈之汉的昵称,以健身和直播评论时事闻名)。就蓝白(Blue-White Alliance: 台湾政治中指国民党(蓝营)与民众党(白营)之间的合作或联合)在政治倾向上来讲,更偏红了。所以台湾的主权问题现在最主要的矛盾并不是中共,而是台湾岛内的这样一种蔑视主权投降派的问题。这个赖清德他没解决的,而且在赖清德执政下,这种反台湾主权的意识在台湾岛内越来越猖獗了。所以你把习近平气得跳脚,你岛内这边要求投降,这个是赖清德他需要注意的。

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For example, Huang Kuo-chang, the former chairman of the New Power Party, a past pro-independence figure in Taiwan, now strongly supports the "Curator" (Chen Chih-han), who claims to be Chinese and loves everything about China. In terms of political leaning, the Blue-White Alliance has become more pro-China. Therefore, the main contradiction regarding Taiwan's sovereignty issue is not the CCP, but rather the problem of a sovereignty-disregarding capitulationist faction within Taiwan. Lai Ching-te has not resolved this, and under his administration, this anti-Taiwanese sovereignty sentiment has become increasingly rampant on the island. So, while you make Xi Jinping jump with anger, there are calls for surrender domestically—this is something Lai Ching-te needs to pay attention to.

第二个怎么跟国际上去讲话。蔡英文他讲的民主与威权的对抗,实际上他就在逐步想摆脱台湾的安全唯一寄托美国的这样一个传统理念。他希望把这样一个安全链扩大,这个是蔡英文的一大突破。那么今天赖清德面对的是唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump: 前美国总统),既说不上话,而且川普的跳跃性又非常大。那么在这种情况下,更应该像蔡英文这样去争取更多的国际资源。所以总的来看,LT认为赖清德阵营,赖清德的助手们,应该提醒赖清德有关两岸问题的一些策略。当然这个也许站在台湾角度来讲,站在绿营角度来讲,LT呢,这个可能有点多嘴多舌,也欢迎网友在评论区批评指正。

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The second point is how to address the international community. Tsai Ing-wen's discourse on the confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism is actually a gradual attempt to break away from Taiwan's traditional reliance solely on the United States for security. She hopes to expand this security chain, which is a major breakthrough for Tsai Ing-wen. Today, Lai Ching-te faces Donald Trump, with whom he can neither communicate effectively nor predict due to Trump's highly unpredictable nature. In such circumstances, it would be more beneficial to emulate Tsai Ing-wen in seeking more international resources. Therefore, overall, LT believes that Lai Ching-te's camp, and his assistants, should remind Lai Ching-te about certain strategies regarding cross-strait issues. Of course, from Taiwan's perspective, or the Green Camp's perspective, LT's remarks might be considered meddlesome, and I welcome netizens to criticize and correct me in the comments section.

马云家族的海外资产与“跑路”困境

第五条与网友分享的重要新闻是《金融时报》的一个报道。很有意思,他报道标题就是“马云的妻子买下伦敦豪华别墅,曾经是意大利的使馆”。这个新闻呢,很多财经媒体当做财经八卦在报道,不知道中国媒体有没有报道。《金融时报》报道是这样描述的,阿里巴巴(Alibaba: 中国最大的电子商务公司之一)创始人马云(Jack Ma: 阿里巴巴集团主要创始人)的妻子张瑛(Zhang Ying: 马云的妻子)以1950万英镑买下位于伦敦早年是意大利驻英国大使馆所在地的一栋别墅。报道提到这栋别墅进一步壮大马云家族在中国境外庞大的房产版图。

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The fifth important news to share with viewers is a report from the Financial Times. It's very interesting; the headline is "Jack Ma's Wife Buys London Luxury Villa, Formerly Italian Embassy." This news has been reported as financial gossip by many financial media outlets, and it's unclear if Chinese media have covered it. The Financial Times report describes that Jack Ma's wife, Zhang Ying, bought a villa in London for £19.5 million, which in earlier years served as the Italian Embassy in the UK. The report mentions that this villa further expands the Ma family's vast real estate portfolio outside China.

根据知情人士透露以及英国土地登记记录,这栋别墅位于伦敦高级住宅区的贝尔格莱维亚(Belgravia: 伦敦市中心的一个富裕地区),属于英国二级历史保护建筑,面积达7948平方英尺,是1920年代意大利驻英国大使馆,后来也曾是意大利驻英国武官的办公地点。这栋别墅共有6间卧室,开价是2150万英镑,最后以1950万英镑成交。报道同时指出马云家族在全球不断拓展的房产版图。马云的妻子张瑛2024年曾斥资新加坡新币4500万元在新加坡购买了3间联动的街屋,就新加坡那个商业街上。此外,马云家族10年来在法国、香港、美国分别购买了城堡、葡萄园、豪宅、庄园等房产。

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According to informed sources and UK land registry records, the villa is located in Belgravia, a high-end residential area in central London. It is a Grade II listed building, spanning 7,948 square feet, and served as the Italian Embassy in the UK in the 1920s, later also housing the office of the Italian military attaché. The villa has 6 bedrooms, was listed for £21.5 million, and sold for £19.5 million. The report also highlights the Ma family's continuously expanding real estate portfolio worldwide. Jack Ma's wife, Zhang Ying, spent S$45 million in 2024 to purchase three interconnected shophouses on a commercial street in Singapore. Additionally, over the past decade, the Ma family has acquired castles, vineyards, luxury homes, and estates in France, Hong Kong, and the United States, respectively.

那么对于这个新闻,LT有一个观点与网友分享。前不久潘石屹(Pan Shiyi: 中国房地产公司SOHO中国联合创始人)与张欣(Zhang Xin: 中国房地产公司SOHO中国联合创始人)夫妇在美国制造了一条大新闻,他们夫妇要宣布在纽约改造一片豪华住宅区。那么这个受到美国舆论的高度关注。那为什么看到马云的妻子投资买豪宅,联想到潘石屹夫妇在美国的发展呢?就大家现在越来越意识到,潘石屹跑路尽管比李嘉诚(Li Ka-shing: 香港著名企业家)跑得晚一点,但是比中国这些土豪来讲,潘石屹跑得还是干净利落,而且也算跑得早。

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Regarding this news, LT has a point to share with viewers. Not long ago, Pan Shiyi and Zhang Xin, the founders of SOHO China, made big news in the United States by announcing their plan to redevelop a luxury residential area in New York. This garnered significant attention from the American media. So why does seeing Jack Ma's wife invest in luxury homes remind one of Pan Shiyi and his wife's development in the U.S.? People are increasingly realizing that while Pan Shiyi's "escape" was a bit later than Li Ka-shing's, compared to other Chinese tycoons, Pan Shiyi's departure was clean, decisive, and relatively early.

那么马云为什么宁愿在中国被剥夺了一些自由,为什么愿意接受这种痛苦的状况,不像潘石屹那样毅然决然地跑路呢?LT认为可能是两个方面原因。第一,马云可能有一些东西割舍不了,比如说他认为的事业,或者他认为的社会地位,他割舍不了。这个就是你舍不舍弃,能不能够放下的问题。第二个,我们之前可能忽视了马云跑不了的因素。除了他不愿意跑,一定有这个因素,也有他跑不了的因素。就从财政金融的角度来比较潘石屹与马云。

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So why is Jack Ma willing to endure a certain deprivation of freedom in China, accepting this painful situation, instead of decisively leaving like Pan Shiyi? LT believes there might be two reasons. First, Jack Ma might have things he cannot let go of, such as his perceived career or social status. This is a question of whether one can abandon or let go. Second, we might have previously overlooked factors preventing Jack Ma from leaving. Besides his unwillingness to leave, which is certainly a factor, there are also reasons why he couldn't leave. Let's compare Pan Shiyi and Jack Ma from a financial perspective.

潘石屹为什么能跑呢?因为跟房地产的业态不一样。房地产的开发商的资产就两块,第一是存量的开发资源,剩下就是他的金融资产。那么金融资产很容易转移,就跑路啊,金融资产这一块很容易跑掉。那么剩下的房地产的这些资源,土地也好,房产也好,潘石屹他很聪明在哪?他全部抵押给了中国银行,甚至是成倍的贷款转移到国外。就是我国内是有土地,是有房产,但是我从中国银行拿走的钱远远高于他留下来的房产土地。所以你要没收,我就拿钱走人了。你不没收,我还用我的资产来维持经营。

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Why could Pan Shiyi leave? Because the real estate business model is different. A real estate developer's assets consist of two parts: existing development resources and financial assets. Financial assets are easily transferable; when fleeing, the financial assets part is easy to move. As for the remaining real estate resources, whether land or properties, where was Pan Shiyi clever? He mortgaged all of them to Chinese banks, even transferring multiple times the loan amount abroad. This means, "I have land and properties domestically, but the money I took from Chinese banks far exceeds the value of the properties and land I left behind." So, if you confiscate, I'll just leave with the money. If you don't confiscate, I'll continue to operate with my assets.

所以潘石屹他弄得中共很难受,中共拿他也没有太多办法。尽管潘石屹还有事业在中国,也在中国仍然在赚钱,但是他就是一种跑路的状态,他不会回到中国,回中国也绝对不安全。但另外一方面,潘石屹的净资产绝大部分都已经转离了中国,都在美国。所以这是一个很成功的跑路。那么马云能不能这样?生意还在中国做着,资产都转移到国外,人也不待在中国,不受中共的制约,中共反而还拿他没办法。马云做不到这一点。为什么?因为马云的主要的资产就是阿里的股票。这是他绝对意义的资产。

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So Pan Shiyi made it very difficult for the CCP, and they didn't have many options against him. Although Pan Shiyi still has businesses in China and continues to make money there, he is in a state of having fled; he will not return to China, as it would be absolutely unsafe. On the other hand, most of Pan Shiyi's net assets have already been transferred out of China and are in the United States. So, this was a very successful "escape." Can Jack Ma do the same? Running a business in China, transferring all assets abroad, not staying in China, being free from CCP constraints, and the CCP being unable to do anything about it. Jack Ma cannot do this. Why? Because Jack Ma's main asset is Alibaba stock. This is his absolute asset.

那么如果马云跑路了,中共可以让马云持有的阿里的股价清零,股票价值清零。至于潘石屹,那个跑路完全不一样。潘石屹转出去的完全是净资产,完全是金融资产,完全是可流动性的资产。而马云的主要资产就是股票,尽管也放在国外,但是他这个股票是依托于中国国内的阿里公司。他与阿里公司还不是直接股东关系,它是一种VIE架构(Variable Interest Entity: 可变利益实体,一种虚拟股权架构,常用于中国科技公司在海外上市,以规避中国对外资的限制)的一种虚拟的间接持有阿里公司的关系。所以中共可以宣布在美国上市中间虚拟的公司做废,阿里在中国的股份中共没收,那马云什么都没有了。

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So, if Jack Ma were to flee, the CCP could zero out the value of the Alibaba shares he holds. As for Pan Shiyi, his "escape" was entirely different. What Pan Shiyi transferred out were purely net assets, purely financial assets, purely liquid assets. Jack Ma's main asset, however, is stock, and although it's held abroad, this stock relies on Alibaba, a company based in China. His relationship with Alibaba is not that of a direct shareholder; it's a virtual, indirect holding through a VIE (Variable Interest Entity) structure. Therefore, the CCP could declare the virtual company listed in the U.S. null and void, and confiscate Alibaba's shares in China, leaving Jack Ma with nothing.

那么马云有没有转一点钱,向他妻子买房子的钱,这都是小钱。这是他卖了一点点股份,拿走的一点钱。他能不能多卖呢?多卖也不行。一多卖,市场感觉马云要跑路了,阿里的股价会大跌。那么让马云没有跑掉的股票价格也会大跌,他的财产又会有很大的损失。所以马云自己也不敢跑。所以他就存在这种状况,只能拿点小钱去炒炒楼。所以今天这个新闻LT主要想分享的就是,马云除了跑不了之外,也有他难言之隐,也有他不能跑的一些因素在里面。

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So, did Jack Ma transfer some money, like the money his wife used to buy a house? These are small sums. This is a small amount of money he took after selling a tiny portion of his shares. Could he sell more? No, he couldn't. If he sold too much, the market would sense that Jack Ma was fleeing, and Alibaba's stock price would plummet. Then the value of the shares Jack Ma hadn't sold would also drop significantly, leading to huge losses for his wealth. So Jack Ma himself doesn't dare to flee. This is his situation; he can only use small amounts of money to speculate in real estate. Therefore, what LT primarily wants to share with today's news is that, besides being unable to flee, Jack Ma also has unspoken difficulties and factors preventing him from leaving.

中国稀土管制与太空难题

第六条与网友分享的重要新闻,这个是《华尔街日报》今天的报道,标题是“中国酝酿计划阻止美国军方取得稀土磁铁”。北京考虑采用最终用户认证制度,加快某些出口许可证的审批速度。知情人士透露,中国计划通过建立一套系统来缓解稀土和其他受限材料流向美国的问题。该系统将排除与美国军方有联系的公司,同时加快其他公司的出口批准。

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The sixth important news item to share with viewers is today's report from The Wall Street Journal, titled "China Plans to Block U.S. Military Access to Rare Earth Magnets." Beijing is considering implementing an end-user certification system to expedite the approval of certain export licenses. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that China plans to establish a system to mitigate the flow of rare earths and other restricted materials to the United States. This system would exclude companies linked to the U.S. military while accelerating export approvals for other companies.

知情人士透露,中共建立一套经核实的最终用户系统(Verified End-User Mechanism, VEU机制: 最终用户认证机制,用于追踪和验证出口商品的最终用途和用户,以防止敏感技术或材料被用于未经授权的目的)将使中国领导人习近平(Xi Jinping: 中华人民共和国最高领导人)能够履行对唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump: 前美国总统)的承诺,促进此类材料的出口,同时确保这些材料不会最终落入美国军方供应商手中,这是中国的核心关切。如果严格执行,该制度可能会使同时拥有民用和国防客户的汽车和航空航太公司更难进口某些中国的原料。知情人士表示,北京的计划仍然有可能改变,其许可证制度在实施前也难以确定。

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Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the CCP's establishment of a Verified End-User (VEU) system would enable Chinese leader Xi Jinping to fulfill his commitment to Donald Trump to promote the export of such materials, while ensuring these materials do not ultimately fall into the hands of U.S. military suppliers, which is China's core concern. If strictly enforced, the system could make it more difficult for automotive and aerospace companies with both civilian and defense customers to import certain Chinese raw materials. Sources indicated that Beijing's plan could still change, and its licensing system remains uncertain before implementation.

那么今天《华尔街日报》这个独家报道在美国引起了一定的轰动。美国人感受到尽管川习会(Trump-Xi Summit: 指美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平之间的会晤)达成了休战协议,中共仍然在收紧对美国出口稀土的管制。因为从中国进口稀土的大户都是军民两用的一些大公司。你比如通用公司(General Motors: 美国汽车制造商),通用公司既是一般民用汽车的制造商,也是航空发电机、战斗机主要的军工的生产商。包括波音(Boeing: 美国航空航天公司),波音集团它既生产民用飞机,也为美国军方提供先进的战斗机和导弹。

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Today's exclusive report from The Wall Street Journal caused a stir in the United States. Americans felt that despite the Trump-Xi summit reaching a truce agreement, the CCP was still tightening control over rare earth exports to the U.S. This is because major importers of rare earths from China are large companies with dual military and civilian uses. For example, General Motors, which is both a manufacturer of general civilian vehicles and a major military producer of aircraft engines and fighter jets. This also includes Boeing, which produces civilian aircraft and provides advanced fighter jets and missiles to the U.S. military.

那么中方所谓要建立一套VEU机制(Verified End-User Mechanism: 最终用户认证机制,用于追踪和验证出口商品的最终用途和用户,以防止敏感技术或材料被用于未经授权的目的),也就是最终用户的认证。这个体现了它仍然是想长臂管理(Long-arm Jurisdiction: 指一国法律管辖权延伸至其领土之外,对境外个人或实体施加影响)。它要追踪延伸管理,你最终这个稀土流到哪去了?那么这个监督的过程当中,它就有可能刺探到一些机密。因为你要证明你没有留下,你得提供证明。所以《华尔街日报》这个报道在美国舆论来看,中共并没有真正意义上去休战停战,而是在某些方面传出更大的敌意。

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So, the Chinese side's stated intention to establish a VEU (Verified End-User) mechanism, which is an end-user certification, reflects its continued desire for long-arm jurisdiction. It wants to track and extend its management: where did this rare earth ultimately go? In the process of this supervision, it could potentially probe for secrets. Because to prove you didn't keep it, you have to provide proof. Therefore, from the perspective of American public opinion on The Wall Street Journal's report, the CCP has not truly ceased hostilities but is, in some respects, signaling greater hostility.

那这个没办法,就像宾斯特(Binst: 可能是指某位分析师或专家,原文未提供全名)讲的,你要摆脱对中国的依赖,你至少还有两年时间。这两天美国很多舆论也在说宾斯特吹牛,两年怎么能够摆脱呢?那既然摆脱不了,那就得忍受北京变着花样来进行卡脖子。

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There's no way around it, as Binst said, you still have at least two years to break free from dependence on China. In the past couple of days, much of the American public opinion has been saying Binst is boasting; how can one break free in two years? Well, if you can't break free, then you have to endure Beijing's various ways of exerting pressure.

第七条与网友分享的重要新闻,是两条有关中国的这个神舟20号(Shenzhou-20: 中国载人航天飞船型号)太空船因故被滞留在太空的问题。美国曾经发生过这个事,现在中国也遇到这个麻烦了。我们分享两个方面的报道,还是很有意思的。第一个我们分享中共《人民日报》的报道,它报道的标题就是“神舟20推迟返回地球,返回任务有序推进”。这个向中国网民报平安。

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The seventh important news to share with viewers involves two reports concerning China's Shenzhou-20 spacecraft being stranded in space for some reason. This has happened to the U.S. before, and now China is facing the same trouble. We'll share two interesting reports. First, we share a report from the CCP's People's Daily, titled "Shenzhou-20 Delays Return to Earth, Return Mission Progressing in Order." This is to reassure Chinese netizens.

它报道这样描述的,根据中国载人航天工程办公室(China Manned Space Agency: 负责中国载人航天工程的组织管理机构)今天的消息,神舟20号太空船返回任务推迟后,工程秉持“生命至上,安全第一”的原则,立即启动应急预案和措施,组织对神舟20号全面进行模拟分析和试验,以及安全评估。研究神舟20号太空人乘组返回实施计划,各系统严格按流程展开各项测试和连条联试,组织关键产品状态判读和质量确认。着陆场正在展开神舟20号太空人乘组返回综合演练,各项工作按计划有序稳步推进。

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The report describes that, according to today's news from the China Manned Space Agency, after the Shenzhou-20 spacecraft's return mission was postponed, the project, adhering to the principle of "life first, safety paramount," immediately activated emergency plans and measures. It organized comprehensive simulated analysis, testing, and safety evaluations for Shenzhou-20. The plan for the Shenzhou-20 astronaut crew's return was studied, and all systems strictly followed procedures to conduct various tests and joint trials, organizing critical product status interpretation and quality confirmation. The landing site is currently conducting a comprehensive drill for the Shenzhou-20 astronaut crew's return, with all work progressing steadily and as planned.

此前该办公室11月5日宣布,神舟20号太空船疑似遭太空微小碎片的撞击,正在进行影响分析和风险评估。经研究决定,原计划11月5日实施的神舟20号返回任务将推迟进行。官方的新闻是希望安抚中国网民的担忧,不要担心我们在采取预案备用方案。中国凤凰网(Phoenix New Media: 香港凤凰卫视旗下的新媒体平台)也介绍预案备用方案,打算用神舟22号(Shenzhou-22: 中国载人航天飞船型号)接滞留在太空的宇航员。

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Previously, the office announced on November 5th that the Shenzhou-20 spacecraft was suspected of being hit by space debris, and impact analysis and risk assessment were underway. After deliberation, it was decided that the Shenzhou-20 return mission, originally scheduled for November 5th, would be postponed. The official news aims to alleviate Chinese netizens' concerns, assuring them that contingency plans and backup solutions are being implemented. Phoenix New Media also introduced the contingency plan, which involves using Shenzhou-22 to retrieve the stranded astronauts.

另外一个方面我们来分享西方媒体对这个事的报道。《英国卫报》的报道标题是“中国三名太空人滞留天空怎么回家?网民呼吁马斯克出手相救”。中国官方5日证实,执行神舟20号任务的指挥官陈东(Chen Dong: 中国航天员)、太空人陈中瑞(Chen Zhongrui: 中国航天员)和王杰(Wang Jie: 中国航天员)原定5日返回内蒙古东风着陆场,但他们的飞船在过去6个月的轨道对接过程中,可能遭到太空碎片的撞击损害。目前正在评估影响及相关风险,三名太空人将延后返回地球。

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On another front, we share Western media's coverage of this event. The Guardian's report is titled "How Will China's Three Stranded Astronauts Get Home? Netizens Call for Elon Musk's Help." Chinese officials confirmed on the 5th that Commander Chen Dong and astronauts Chen Zhongrui and Wang Jie, who were on the Shenzhou-20 mission, were originally scheduled to return to the Dongfeng landing site in Inner Mongolia on the 5th. However, their spacecraft may have been damaged by space debris during orbital docking over the past six months. The impact and associated risks are currently being assessed, and the three astronauts will delay their return to Earth.

这件事在社交媒体引起高度关注,网民纷纷提及埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk: 特斯拉和SpaceX的首席执行官)的SpaceX(美国一家航空航天制造商和空间运输服务公司)公司今年3月18日以飞龙号(Dragon spacecraft: SpaceX公司开发的载人/货运飞船)成功救回了滞留太空287天的美国国家航空航天局(NASA: 美国联邦政府的独立机构,负责民用空间计划、航空航天研究)太空人威廉·威廉姆斯(William Williams: 可能是指美国宇航员Barry Wilmore)和特里·维尔茨(Terry W. Virts: 可能是指美国宇航员Terry W. Virts)。很多英国网民给《卫报》留言:“派马斯克去受困太空找谁求救?只有马斯克和SpaceX。”这体现了一种英国网民的本能的关心,不知道中国网民接不接受这份善意。所以有关太空人滞留太空的这件事毫无疑问会成为全球舆论的关注焦点,会持续关注,因为它每天都在太空上,都在人们头顶上,所以这个事还会被全世界议论一段时间。

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This incident has attracted significant attention on social media, with netizens frequently mentioning Elon Musk's SpaceX company, which successfully rescued NASA astronauts William Williams and Terry W. Virts, who were stranded in space for 287 days, using its Dragon spacecraft on March 18th this year. Many British netizens commented on The Guardian, asking, "Who do you call for help when stranded in space? Only Musk and SpaceX." This reflects an instinctive concern from British netizens, and it's unclear whether Chinese netizens will accept this goodwill. Therefore, the incident of astronauts being stranded in space will undoubtedly become a global focal point of public opinion and will continue to be monitored, as it is in space every day, above people's heads, so this matter will be discussed worldwide for some time.

中国“战狼外交”与特朗普的回应

第八条与网友分享的重要新闻是中国战狼(Wolf Warrior Diplomacy: 形容中国外交官以强硬、对抗性姿态维护国家利益和形象的外交风格)薛健(Xue Jian: 中国驻日本大阪总领事)宣称要斩首日本首相的言论,还惊动唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump: 前美国总统)了。所以这个事,因为凡事跟川普扯上,它就变成一个国际大新闻了。在那之前,人们更多是从挖苦嘲讽中国战狼的一些表演,就不是一个严肃的政治言论,或者也不值得严肃对待。就像日本官方一样,他这个言论的不恰当,极不恰当。至于驱不驱逐,或者这个还不至于,就是一个疯狗或者一个战狼而已。

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The eighth important news to share with viewers is about Chinese "wolf warrior" Xue Jian's remarks threatening to behead the Japanese Prime Minister, which even alarmed Donald Trump. This matter became an international big news story because anything involving Trump tends to. Before that, people mostly viewed the performances of China's wolf warriors with sarcasm and ridicule, not as serious political statements, or not worth taking seriously. Just like the Japanese official stance, his remarks were highly inappropriate. As for expulsion, or whether it's that serious, it's just a mad dog or a wolf warrior.

那么这个事儿,今天美国媒体报道的这个事儿,又扯上川普了。《福克斯新闻》报道是这样描述的,中国驻日本大阪总领事薛健对岸田文雄(Fumio Kishida: 日本首相)的评论传到了川普这里。《福克斯电视台》的当家花旦女主持劳拉·英格拉姆(Laura Ingraham: 福克斯新闻主持人)问川普,他怎么看中国现在导弹基地扩大,核武器数量的增加,以及他们驻大阪的领事宣称要斩首岸田文雄。这个在全美关注的川普的专访当中,突然把中国战狼薛健的言论抛给了川普。而且主持人还特意强调:“我知道岸田文雄是你的好朋友。”

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So, this matter, reported by American media today, has once again involved Trump. Fox News reported that Chinese Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian's comments about Fumio Kishida reached Trump. Fox News's star anchor, Laura Ingraham, asked Trump what he thought about China's expanding missile bases, increasing nuclear weapons, and their consul in Osaka claiming he would behead Kishida. In a nationally watched interview with Trump, the remarks of Chinese "wolf warrior" Xue Jian were suddenly brought up to Trump. The host also specifically emphasized, "I know Kishida is your good friend."

那么《福克斯电视台》的主持人当然是期待川普能够狠狠地教训一下中共的战狼。但川普的这个回答呢,明显让《福克斯电视台》的主持人有些失望。但是你认真听一下,川普他还是表达出来了,他对战狼言论的一个评价。他首先说:“我跟习近平(Xi Jinping: 中华人民共和国最高领导人)关系很好。”那为什么跟习近平关系很好呢?他说跟中国要想相处的好,你必须有实力。就中国中共他只服你的实力。你跟他态度好啊,一点用都没有的。你有本事他他就服你。他说:“中国确实有很多导弹,但我们也有很多。我可以告诉你,他们不敢惹我们。”

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The Fox News host, of course, expected Trump to severely reprimand the CCP's "wolf warrior." However, Trump's response clearly disappointed the Fox News host. But if you listen carefully, Trump still expressed his evaluation of the "wolf warrior" rhetoric. He first said, "I have a very good relationship with Xi Jinping." Why does he have a good relationship with Xi Jinping? He said that to get along well with China, you must have strength. The CCP only respects your strength. Being nice to them is useless. If you have capability, they will respect you. He said, "China certainly has a lot of missiles, but we have a lot too. I can tell you, they don't dare mess with us."

就他没有正面去回答薛健威胁岸田文雄,他只是强调中国不敢对我们这样。那言外之意就是假如中共驻美国的什么领事馆总领事敢说斩首川普的话,那可能这个麻烦就大了去了。就不排除川普第一个任期那样,他宣布把你这个整个领事馆给你关了,强拆。所以川普这个话说的呢,尽管《福克斯》主持人不敢劲,就他希望川普来骂一骂这个薛健,但是川普讲这个实话是中国他不敢对美国这样。他强调与中共打交道,你就得有实力,拿出实力来,没有实力不要跟他去斗嘴。所以川普这个态度呢,尽管很多网友也是感觉不过瘾,但是LT感觉呢,他确实有他的一些逻辑。

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He didn't directly answer Xue Jian's threat to Fumio Kishida; he merely emphasized that China wouldn't dare to treat the U.S. that way. The implication is that if a Chinese consul general in the U.S. dared to talk about beheading Trump, the trouble would likely be immense. It's not out of the question that, as in Trump's first term, he might announce the closure and forced demolition of the entire consulate. So, while Trump's words didn't satisfy the Fox News host, who wanted him to scold Xue Jian, Trump's truth was that China wouldn't dare to treat the U.S. like that. He emphasized that when dealing with the CCP, you must have strength; show your strength, and don't engage in verbal sparring without it. So, while many netizens felt unsatisfied with Trump's attitude, LT feels he indeed has his own logic.

但是LT注意到另外一种信息,就薛健这一次不仅骂日本,他之前骂以色列(Israel: 中东国家),说以色列是纳粹。这个在西方文化里面,这也是属于通高压线的问题。他难道真的没有去挑战美国吗?并不是。他也骂了美国驻日本的大使。美国驻日本大使这一次对薛健恐吓日本首相,他就提出来薛健之前呢也曾攻击过以色列,把薛健呢骂了一通。薛健反过来又把美国驻日本大使也骂了一通。所以《福克斯电视台》假如说跟川普说他骂了你驻日本的大使,那可能川普可能又会是另外一种表达了。所以不管怎么样,薛健这个事闹到川普那个地方,在川普的专访当中被提及,这个事的影响与前两天的舆论影响就又不一样了,又在升级了。

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However, LT noticed another piece of information: Xue Jian not only criticized Japan this time but had previously criticized Israel, calling it Nazi. In Western culture, this is also crossing a high-voltage line. Did he really not challenge the United States? No. He also criticized the U.S. Ambassador to Japan. When the U.S. Ambassador to Japan addressed Xue Jian's threat to the Japanese Prime Minister, he pointed out that Xue Jian had previously attacked Israel, and he thoroughly criticized Xue Jian. Xue Jian, in turn, criticized the U.S. Ambassador to Japan. So, if Fox News had told Trump that Xue Jian had criticized his ambassador to Japan, Trump's response might have been different. Regardless, the fact that Xue Jian's incident reached Trump and was mentioned in his interview means its impact is now different from the public opinion of the past two days; it's escalating.

中国经济困境:央行解释与数据质疑

那么最后我们再分享《华尔街日报》今天的报道,有关中国的金融问题。就大家都在担心中国的经济或者中国的金融风险问题,但是中共给人感觉呢,他总是刀枪不入,数据一定好。那么今天中国人民银行(People's Bank of China: 中华人民共和国的中央银行)通报了金融数据,显然是比较糟糕的数据。那么央行怎么解释呢?今天央行的解释被《华尔街日报》逮住,它与官方中国国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics of China: 中华人民共和国负责统计工作的国务院直属机构)、国家发展和改革委员会(National Development and Reform Commission: 中国的宏观经济管理部门)、李强(Li Qiang: 中华人民共和国国务院总理)、习近平(Xi Jinping: 中华人民共和国最高领导人)对中国经济畅想光明论的解释就不一样了。

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Finally, we share today's report from The Wall Street Journal regarding China's financial issues. Everyone is concerned about China's economy or its financial risks, but the CCP always gives the impression of being invulnerable, with data always looking good. Today, the People's Bank of China reported financial data, which was clearly quite poor. So, how did the central bank explain it? The central bank's explanation today was caught by The Wall Street Journal, and it differed from the official optimistic narratives about China's economy from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the National Development and Reform Commission, Li Qiang, and Xi Jinping.

有时候我们了解中国的实情啊,有时候银行的数据啊,大家还是要高度重视。他这个报道标题就是“中国人民银行解释贷款放缓是因为经济规模增长创下新低”。就是你经济没有增长了,你凭什么让我贷款增长?所以这个就与中共一直以来宣传的这样一种舆论就不一样。他认为5%的GDP增长,甚至国师提出来5%的GDP增长还能维持20年。这个央行今天在面对金融数据为什么这么糟糕,是因为经济放缓了,那不是我货币发行的原因。

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Sometimes, to understand the true situation in China, everyone still needs to pay close attention to bank data. The report's title is "People's Bank of China Explains Loan Slowdown Due to Record Low Economic Growth." That is, if your economy isn't growing, why should I increase lending? So, this differs from the narrative the CCP has consistently promoted. It believes in 5% GDP growth, and even national strategists suggest 5% GDP growth can be maintained for 20 years. Today, the central bank, when confronting the poor financial data, explained that it was due to an economic slowdown, not because of its monetary issuance.

中国央行驳斥了有关经济转型摆脱旧增长引擎后新增贷款增长放缓的担忧。此前中国信贷在今年稍早经历了创纪录的萎缩。中国人民银行周二发布的季度货币政策报告承诺维持融资环境的相对宽松。报告指出,经济转型摆脱对房地产业的过度依赖是导致贷款增长放缓的因素之一,未来整体的融资增速放缓是自然现象。不仅现在贷款萎缩,未来一个时期都会是这个状态。这符合中国经济从高速增长向高品质增长转型的趋势。

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China's central bank refuted concerns about slowing new loan growth after the economic transition away from old growth engines. Previously, China's credit experienced a record contraction earlier this year. The People's Bank of China's quarterly monetary policy report released on Tuesday pledged to maintain a relatively loose financing environment. The report pointed out that the economic transformation, moving away from over-reliance on the real estate sector, is one of the factors leading to slower loan growth, and a general slowdown in financing growth in the future is a natural phenomenon. Not only are loans contracting now, but this state will persist for a period in the future. This aligns with the trend of China's economy transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality growth.

今年7月,中国未偿还贷款余额出现2005年以来首次萎缩。9月份实体经济贷款年增长率放缓至6.4%,创历史新低。未来一个时期都还是要萎缩贷款规模。这显然是一种负能量,显然没有畅想经济光明论。所以中国央行在今天的通报当中,他进一步强调未来逐步会淡化对贷款总量的关注。这个数据不感兴趣了,因为他没有办法。

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In July this year, China's outstanding loan balance saw its first contraction since 2005. In September, the annual growth rate of loans to the real economy slowed to 6.4%, reaching a historic low. The scale of loans is expected to continue contracting for a period in the future. This clearly represents a negative outlook, certainly not envisioning an optimistic economic future. Therefore, in its announcement today, the People's Bank of China further emphasized that it will gradually de-emphasize its focus on total loan volume in the future. It is no longer interested in this data because it has no alternative.

那么对这个新闻,LT有两个观点与网友分享。中国的经济究竟怎么样了?在中国国家统计局那个领域,他一直是从胜利走向胜利,无论是内循环还是外循环,都是保持高昂的增长。但是除了国家统计局那个地方之外,相关结构性的数据普遍是非常悲观的。你看央行的数据很悲观,商务部的消费品零售总额很悲观,包括这次双十一国家发展委员会的固定资产投资更悲观,现在成负数了,一分钱没有增长反而在下降。所以结构性的数据都不支撑GDP的增长。

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Regarding this news, LT has two points to share with viewers. What exactly is happening with China's economy? In the realm of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, it has always been a story of triumph, with both domestic and international circulation maintaining robust growth. However, beyond the National Bureau of Statistics, related structural data are generally very pessimistic. For example, the central bank's data is very pessimistic, the Ministry of Commerce's total retail sales of consumer goods are very pessimistic, and even the National Development and Reform Commission's fixed asset investment for this year's Double Eleven is even more pessimistic, now showing negative growth, with no increase but rather a decline. Therefore, structural data do not support GDP growth.

那么今天央行的这个数据,更佐证了中国舆论以及国际舆论对中国GDP强行增长的这样一个质疑。你包括之前与网友分享,《经济学人》(The Economist: 英国著名新闻周刊)算出来2%的虚增是抓到了真凭实据的。因为你固定资产投资,官方认为说固定资产投资推动GDP2%的增长,但实际上固定资产投资又在下降,根本不可能有增量去推动GDP的增长。那么央行这个数据,它佐证了投资萎缩的现实,这个就比较吻合了。当然中共它也不怕你质疑,年底了习近平(Xi Jinping: 中华人民共和国最高领导人)会照样宣布5%的GDP增长。

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Today's central bank data further corroborates the skepticism from both Chinese and international public opinion regarding China's forced GDP growth. This includes what was previously shared with viewers: The Economist calculated a 2% inflated growth, and they found solid evidence. Because while official sources claim fixed asset investment drives 2% of GDP growth, fixed asset investment is actually declining, making it impossible for there to be any incremental growth to boost GDP. So, the central bank's data corroborates the reality of shrinking investment, which aligns well. Of course, the CCP isn't afraid of your skepticism; by year-end, Xi Jinping will still announce 5% GDP growth.

第二个想与网友分享的观点,实际上在金融数据以及国家发改委的数据,最核心的信息它并不是投资的增长,或者有没有充足的资金去推动经济增长,而是中国的企业,特别是民营企业,没有扩大再生产的意愿。这个是最危险的。不仅是中国民营企业,从中国国家外汇管理局(State Administration of Foreign Exchange: 中国人民银行下属机构,负责外汇管理)的数据显示,他们不愿意扩大再生产是一种萎缩状态。最直接的能够反映企业投资意愿的外商直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment, FDI: 外国投资者在东道国进行投资,以获取企业经营控制权的投资行为)在最近上周,中国国家外汇管理局公布的第三季度外资对华的直接投资FDI(Foreign Direct Investment: 外国投资者在东道国进行投资,以获取企业经营控制权的投资行为)环比直接夭折,三季度比二季度大减51%。

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The second point I want to share with viewers is that the most crucial information in the financial data and the National Development and Reform Commission's data is not actually about investment growth or whether there is sufficient capital to drive economic growth. Instead, it's about the unwillingness of Chinese enterprises, especially private enterprises, to expand reproduction. This is the most dangerous aspect. Not only Chinese private enterprises, but data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange also show that their unwillingness to expand reproduction indicates a state of contraction. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which most directly reflects corporate investment willingness, saw a direct collapse in the third quarter's foreign direct investment in China, as announced by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange last week, with a massive 51% decrease compared to the second quarter.

网友们都知道,外商直接投资在过去的三年每年都是断崖式的下降。你看三季度形势恶劣到这个程度,外商假如你这地方能挣钱,他一定会来投资的。他不会听什么唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump: 前美国总统)的号召,听欧盟(European Union: 欧洲国家组成的政治经济联盟)的号召什么脱钩,他只要能赚钱,他会不顾一切的。这些比兔子还精的外商大规模的撤离,它也从另外一个角度印证了中国的经济环境或者经济形势确实比中国官方宣传的要糟糕得多得多。所以金融数据不好,发改委的固定资产投资数据不好,除了影响GDP的真实性或者影响GDP增长之外,更值得关注的是投资环境的恶化,经济环境的恶化,内资外资一致的共识。

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As netizens know, foreign direct investment has plummeted year after year over the past three years. Look at how dire the situation was in the third quarter; if foreign businesses could make money here, they would definitely invest. They wouldn't listen to Donald Trump's calls, or the EU's calls for decoupling; as long as they can make money, they will do so regardless. The large-scale withdrawal of these foreign businesses, who are shrewder than rabbits, also corroborates from another angle that China's economic environment or situation is indeed much worse than what official Chinese propaganda suggests. Therefore, poor financial data and poor fixed asset investment data from the National Development and Reform Commission, besides affecting the authenticity of GDP or GDP growth, more importantly highlight the deteriorating investment environment and economic conditions, a consensus shared by both domestic and foreign capital.

这个LT认为比GDP的多一点少一点更值得引起舆论的关注。但是LT有一个杞人忧天的担忧,尽管结果性的数据都反映中国经济遇到了重大困难,但是统计局已经给出的数据又欣欣向荣。它无视基础性数据重大的缺失,强行给总体数据很好。LT杞人忧天的担忧是什么?习近平(Xi Jinping: 中华人民共和国最高领导人)他只能够在已经注水的数据里面继续去注水。因为他无法承担像美国安然公司(Enron Corporation: 美国一家曾位列财富500强的能源公司,因财务造假于2001年破产)那样的问题。持续多年的假数据已经完全与公司的经营脱节,最后一旦遇到一些外部的压力,整个公司的数据链都崩塌。

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LT believes this is more worthy of public attention than slight fluctuations in GDP. However, LT has a pessimistic concern: although the resulting data reflect that China's economy has encountered significant difficulties, the data already provided by the National Bureau of Statistics still appears prosperous. It disregards major deficiencies in foundational data and forcibly presents overall positive data. What is LT's pessimistic concern? Xi Jinping can only continue to inflate already inflated data. Because he cannot bear problems like those of Enron Corporation in the United States. Years of false data had completely detached from the company's operations, and once external pressure hit, the entire company's data chain collapsed.

LT杞人忧天,确实是担忧这个问题。因为你现在数据一步步注水,今年的注水是在去年注水基础上的,但是这种注水无法永恒下去的。那么一旦出现哪一天要崩塌,最倒霉的还是在中国有风险投资的网友们。所以我们谈论这个问题,有些正能量网友觉得你是不是又在辱华?这个跟辱不辱华没有关系。即使是正能量的网友,你如果在中国有投资的话,你也必须把这些安然公司的风险,类似于安然公司这样的系统性长期的造假突然崩塌,给投资者带来毁灭性的影响,这种风险你必须考虑进去。这个与意识形态是无关的。

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LT is indeed worried about this issue. Because data is being inflated step by step, this year's inflation is built upon last year's, but this kind of inflation cannot last forever. And once it collapses one day, the unluckiest will be netizens who have venture capital in China. So, when we discuss this issue, some positive-energy netizens might think, "Are you insulting China again?" This has nothing to do with insulting China. Even for positive-energy netizens, if you have investments in China, you must consider the risks of a systemic, long-term fraud, similar to Enron, suddenly collapsing and causing devastating effects on investors. This is unrelated to ideology.

但即便出现了安然公司那种现象,能不能损害习近平(Xi Jinping: 中华人民共和国最高领导人)呢?或者能不能影响习近平的独裁呢?一点影响不了的。所以我们在谈论经济,谈论政治的时候,更多的落脚要落脚在网友们应该看护好自己的资产,保护好自己的既得利益。以上是今天与网友分享的内容,谢谢大家收看。

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But even if a phenomenon like Enron occurred, would it harm Xi Jinping? Or would it affect Xi Jinping's dictatorship? Not at all. So, when we discuss economics and politics, the focus should be more on how netizens should protect their assets and safeguard their vested interests. That concludes today's sharing with viewers. Thank you for watching.