萨拉·佩恩博士访谈：世界秩序演变、地缘政治危机与代际责任

走向世界大战的风险与当前危机

我们有可能正一路狂奔冲向一场世界大战，而且看上去就像第二次世界大战那样。战争一旦爆发，就很难停下来。但在世界各地，有些鲁莽的人正掌管着一些非常庞大而重要的国家，而且他们全都在这上面撒谎。这就是谎言常态化的问题所在。苏联之所以解体，很大程度上是因为它建立在谎言之上。而在二战这个话题上，你可能是我接触过最博学的人之一了，但我不知道眼下究竟是怎么回事。

英文原文

We're potentially barreling our way into a world war and it looks like World War II. And once wars start, it's really hard to stop them. But we have reckless people running some very large and important countries around the world and they're all lying about it. And here's the problem with normalizing lies. The Soviet Union collapsed in large part because it was built on lies. and you might be one of the most knowledgeable people that I think I've ever spoken to on the subject of World War II, but I don't know what going on.

所以说，历史推进得非常快。就像阻塞河道的木料堆轰然崩开，我们不知道局面会往哪个方向发展，这极其令人恐慌。普京决定入侵乌克兰来掀翻棋盘。唐纳德·特朗普决定卷入一场在伊朗的消遣性战争。而这场战争重创了美国经济，毁掉了美国的盟友体系，但它造成的附带损伤还拖垮了世界经济。这就是由普京这类阴暗人格掌控国家所带来的问题。他根本不在乎自己杀害多少人。这些人在历史上是完全不称职的。

英文原文

>> So, history's moving really fast. It's like the log jams busted and we don't know which way it's going to go and it's tremendously frightening. Putin decided to kick over the chess board by invading Ukraine. Donald Trump decided to get into a recreational war in Iran. And this war has trashed the US economy. It has blown the US alliance system, but it also has the collateral damage of taking down the world's economy. And this is the problem with having these dark personalities running countries like Putin. He doesn't care how many people he kills. These people are historically unqualified.

但特朗普已经和普京就柴油出口达成了协议。

英文原文

>> But Trump has made a deal with Putin for diesel exports.

哦，这是虚假信息。俄罗斯根本没有能力出口足够数量的柴油来起到哪怕丁点作用。一如既往，他在撒谎。

英文原文

>> Oh, this is disinformation. Russia has no capacity to export diesel in sufficient quantities to make any difference whatsoever. As usual, he's lying.

特朗普不会从伊朗撤出。听上去普京也不会从乌克兰撤出。

英文原文

>> Trump's not going to back out of Iran. It doesn't sound like Putin's going to back out of Ukraine.

他们会永远打下去。

英文原文

>> They're going to go forever.

如果我们沿着现在行进的方向继续走下去，未来会是什么样子？

英文原文

>> If we continue on the direction of travel we're on now, what does the future look like?

这个嘛，你必须防止这些事情爆发，因为一旦爆发，事情就真的不可挽回了。所以，我可以给你提供几个概念。我们这就开始。

英文原文

>> Well, you've got to prevent these things from breaking out because once they break out, then things are really over. So, I can give you concepts. Here we go.

频道片头插播

在本期节目开始之前，我想请大家帮个小忙。两个月前，观看这个频道的人里有61%没有订阅。现在我们已经降到了58%。我的目标是50%。所以，如果你喜欢过我们在该频道制作的任何视频，如果你喜欢这个频道，你能帮我一个小小的举手之劳、点击一下订阅按钮吗？这对本频道的帮助超出你的想象。频道规模越大，我们就能在嘉宾和制作上投入越多。谢谢大家，请收看本期节目。

英文原文

>> Before this episode starts, I have a small favor to ask you. 2 months ago, 61% of the people that watched this channel weren't subscribed. And we're now down to 58%. My goal is 50%. So, if you've ever liked any of the videos we've made on this channel, if you like this channel, can you do me a small quick favor and hit the subscribe button? It helps this channel more than you know. And the bigger the channel gets, the more we can invest in the guests and the production. Thank you and enjoy this episode.

大陆秩序与海洋秩序

萨拉·佩因博士，在我们今天将要探讨的这些话题上，你可能是我认为自己交流过最博学的人之一了。而且我认为，基于世界上正在发生的一切，这些话题都极其切合当下。我所看到的，是这里爆发战争，那里爆发战争，这里出现冲突，普京入侵了这个地方，特朗普进入了伊朗。昨天我们在巴黎，我在巴黎街头看到的是暴动，我看到的是混乱。呃，但我不知道导致我们现在看到的一切的那第一张倒下的多米诺骨牌是在哪里倒下的，或者其背后的背景脉络是什么。所以，我想问你，这一切究竟是从何开始的？

英文原文

Dr. Sarah Payne, you might be one of the most knowledgeable people that I think I've ever spoken to on the subjects we're going to speak about today. and they are subjects that I think are incredibly timely based on everything that's going on in the world. What I see is war over here, war over here, conflict over here, Putin invading this place, Trump's gone into Iran. What I see on the streets of Paris, where we were yesterday, is rioting, and I see disorder. Um, but I don't know where what the first domino that fell that caused everything that we're seeing now, um, occurred or what the sort of background context is. So, I'm going to ask you, where does this all start?

嗯，历史是没有起点的。它是一条漫长而连续的演变。不过我可以试着梳理一些可能有所帮助的概念。过去国家组织自身的方式——通常它们都是帝国——是以土地作为权力的流通货币。因此，大陆主义的世界全都关乎从他人那里夺取领土，对吧？而当你那样做时，你就是在消耗财富，因为你在所有这些地方都目睹了这种情况。随后，出现了一种替代的可能性。它起源于海洋强国，但最终演变成了一种海洋世界秩序，那是不一样的形态。英国是一个海洋强国，但随后你进入了工业革命，在那里你突然能够实现财富的复合增长，那是一个打破格局的转折点，因为它改变了权力的流通货币——在以前我刚刚描述的那个大陆主义世界里，一切都围绕着土地。它把权力的流通货币转变为了工业、商业和贸易。也就是说如果你从事这些活动，你就能获得复合增长的财富。有了这些，你就可以购买军队，或者随心所欲做任何你想做的事。然后，海洋秩序关乎仅仅依靠普遍规则来实现财富的复合增长。就像你一直在到处旅行，你手里那一小块塑料卡片在任何地方都能用，对吧？那是建立在基于规则的秩序之上的。再比如你有一家小公司，在不同的国家开展业务。呃，没有人会因为你赚到了钱就把你除掉，对吧？你的所有交易在全世界范围内都能正常运转。这就是基于规则的秩序。如果它不复存在，那些一直把钱源源不断输送给大陆主义者的亿万富翁们，他们的世界也会随之消失。他们也会成为其受害者。然后，当我思考这个星球上什么最重要时，那就是你们这些年轻人。请告诉我，在随后的世世代代中，还有什么更重要的？请直接告诉我，那是什么？没有了。

英文原文

Well, history doesn't start. It's a long continuum. But I'll try on some concepts that might be helpful. The way countries used to organize themselves and often they were empires uh was by land was a currency of power. So the continentalist world is all about taking territory for others, right? And when you're doing that, you're burning wealth because you've watched it in all these places. Then later an alternate possibility came. It originated from maritime powers but ultimately it becomes a maritime world order which is something different. Britain is a maritime power but then you get to the industrial revolution where suddenly you can compound wealth and that's a gamecher because it changes the currency of power which formerly in that continental world I've just described it's all about land. It's changing the currency of power to industry, commerce, and trade. That if you do those things, you get compounded wealth. And with that, you can buy your armies or do whatever uh you want. And then the maritime order is about compounding wealth from just having universal rules. Like you've been traveling all over, your little piece of plastic works everywhere, right? That's based on rules-based order. And then you've got a small company and you operate in various countries. Um, no one's taking you down for your money that you're making, right? All your transactions are working across the world. This is the rules-based order. If it goes away, the billionaires who've been funneling their money into the continentalists, their world will disappear too. They will become casualties of it. And then when I think about what's important on this planet, it would be you, the young. Like, please tell me what is more important in the generations that follow. Just tell me what is it? Nothing.

你对下一代感到担忧吗？

英文原文

>> Are you concerned about the next generation?

是的。

英文原文

>> Yeah.

为什么？

英文原文

>> Why?

我们有可能正一路狂奔冲向一场世界大战。我们有些鲁莽的人在掌管着世界各地一些非常庞大而重要的国家。正如你所注意到的，战争一旦开始，发起战争这个环节很容易。但要结束战争却非常困难。为什么？因为落败的一方不想认输。所以他们在输掉很久之后，仍然会继续加码下注。

英文原文

>> We're potentially barreling our way into a world war. We have reckless people running some very large and important countries around the world. And as you've noticed, once wars start, easy to do that part. Really hard to end them. Why? Because whoever's losing doesn't want to lose. So they keep doubling down long after they've lost.

消极目标、威慑与政府职能

他刚才发表了一番评论。你说你认为我们有点像正冲向一场世界大战。要知道，自二战以来，人们可能每年都在这么说。

英文原文

>> He made a comment there. You said you think we're sort of barreling towards a world war. People, you know, have probably said that every year for the since World War II.

啊，在这里你是否有消极目标和积极目标之分？啊，是的。我们这就来谈谈。消极目标和积极目标。所谓积极目标，就是如果你促成了某件事的发生，比如我说不好，我想抓捕马杜罗并把他关进纽约的监狱。我们可以核实这家伙确实关在纽约的监狱里。你抓到了他。这就是一个积极目标。而消极目标则是阻止某件事情发生。可你怎么能证明在过去的无论多少年里，世界大战被避免了多少次呢？你无法证明。而且关于威慑也同样存在争议，对吧？因为你可以说：“啊，我投资了不管是哪样东西，而这威慑住了所有人。”接着别人就会说：证明给我看。可你根本证明不了。然而，我作为父母常举的一个例子是，如果你有一个小孩，很多事情都属于消极目标。阻止小孩被车撞倒。你在街上拉着他们的手。如果你住在纽约，在街上走着的时候，一天之中有多少次你救了那个孩子的命，就因为你在他们——你知道——冲到车子前面之前、冲进车流之前紧紧拉住了他们的手。所以消极目标是极其重要的。既然我谈到了这个话题，我认为政府主要也是关乎消极目标的。防止灾难发生。那么第一大灾难就是比如外国入侵。但还有其他事情，防止桥梁垮塌，我们去检查桥梁；防止各行各业出现各类渎职乱象，我们给从业人员颁发执照；防止所有人都成为文盲，你进行、你普及教育。因此，政府所做的事情其实并没有得到应有的认可，因为在平常的日子里一切都很正常。所以你就会觉得，哎，我的政府最近根本没为我做任何事。这并不符合事实。这也同样适用于这样一种观点，即你知道人们在历史上可能经常说要爆发战争了。那么在这个时间节点上，是否有某种特别的危险征兆呢？

英文原文

>> Ah, do you have negative and positive objectives here? Ah, yeah. Here we go. Negative and positive objectives. So, a positive objective if you make something happen like I don't know, I want to snatch Maduro and put him in a New York prison. We can verify that the guy's in a New York prison. You snatched him. That's a positive objective. A negative objective would be preventing something from happening. And how can you prove how many times a world war was avoided in the last whatever years? You can't. And it's also controversial, right, on deterrence cuz you can say, "Ah, I've invested in whatever it is and this has deterred everybody." Then it's prove it. Well, you can't prove it. And yet, the example I use as a parent, if you have a little kid, a lot of it's negative objectives. preventing the little kid from getting run over. You hold their hand on the street. If you're living in New York, how many times in a day just walking up the street did you save that child's life because you were hanging on to their hand before they, you know, took off in front of c into traffic. So negative objectives are incredibly important. And since I'm on this topic, governments, I believe, are primarily about negative objectives. Preventing disasters. So disaster number one would be like foreign invasion. But other things preventing bridges from collapsing. We inspect them. Preventing all kinds of mal practice across professions. We license people. Having everyone be illiterate. You have you have education. And so governments don't actually get credit for what they do because on a normal day it's normal. So you think well my government hasn't done anything for me lately. Untrue. And that applies here to the idea that you know people have probably through history said that there was going to be a war a lot. And so is there particular writing on the wall at this moment in the timeline?

是的。

英文原文

>> Yeah.

什么是危险征兆？

英文原文

>> What is writing on the wall?

伊朗战争与战略评估

嗯，伊朗战争大概是人类历史上最无能的战争之一。

英文原文

>> Well, the Iran war is probably one of the most incompetent wars in human history.

那是一个错误吗？

英文原文

>> Was that a mistake?

嗯，是的。让我们用一些概念来分析一下。

英文原文

>> Well, yeah. Let's do some concepts of how to analyze that.

好的。其一是在战争中，如果你做得对，如果你真的必须要打一场战争，你会把所有的成本转嫁到与你作战的人身上，然后让你自己的成本降到最低。然而，这场战争重创了美国经济，毁掉了美国的盟友体系。是的，毫无疑问伊朗正遭受重创，但这造成的附带损伤还拖垮了世界经济。因此，这现在把美国从一个令人烦扰的存在，变成了几乎所有人眼中的头号对手，因为美国威胁到了他们的经济。那是惊人地无能。

英文原文

>> Okay. One is in a war, if you're doing it right, if you really must have a war, you put all the costs on the person you're fighting and then you minimize costs yourself. Well, this war has trashed the US economy. It has blown the US alliance system. Yes, Iran is hurting without a doubt, but it is also has the collateral damage of taking down the world's economy. So this now transforms the United States to an annoyance to just about everyone's primary adversary for threatening their economies. That's breathtakingly incompetent.

误判在哪里？

英文原文

>> What was the misunderstanding?

我并没有参与决策层。所以我们再来谈谈关于评估的另一件事。这就是当你在发动一场战争之前进行评估时，你不仅需要审视我的优势，以及如果你是——如果你是伊朗——审视你的劣势，这显然是当初评估的一部分。我们很强大。我们把那些全都盘算清楚了，但还要审视你的优势和我的劣势。哦，还有再加上所有这些

英文原文

>> I'm not privy to the decision making. So let's do another thing about assessment. This is when you do an assessment before you even do a war, you need to look at not just my strengths and if you're the if you're Iran, your weaknesses, which clearly that was part of the assessment. We're strong. We figured all that out, but also your strengths and my weaknesses. Oh, and plus all the

可能感兴趣的其他人，而显然当时并没有这样的人在场。或者说，那些本该提醒“嘿，他们要做的第一件事就是封锁霍尔木兹海峡”的人并不在那里。对吧？这就像一个热水袋。如果你把那地方堵死，那就意味着住在那里、没有备用海岸线的任何人，都无法通过海路把东西运出去。这能听懂吗？

英文原文

other people who might be interested and clearly that was absent. Or the people who should have been saying, "Hey, the first thing they're going to do is shut down Hormuz weren't there." Right? It's like a hot water bottle. If you cook that thing, it means anybody who lives there who doesn't have an alternate coastline cannot get things out by sea. Does that make sense?

狭窄海域在战时很容易被封锁。乌克兰就封锁了黑海。这些地方在战时会关闭，因为在岸防炮火、水雷和其他东西的封锁下，任何东西都无法通行。所以，当美国在——对，巴林拥有大型基地时，大型海军基地就在那里。好吧。嘿，我们该怎么去那个海军基地？我觉得去不了。那我们该去哪儿？哦，我们得去迪戈加西亚岛。那个基地会在2500英里之外，而且那个小基地简直是在荒郊野岭。那将会是一场混乱。

英文原文

>> Narrow seas in wartime easy to shut down. Ukraine shut down the Black Sea. These places close down in wartime because between shore artillery and mines and other stuff, things don't move. So when the United States had its big base in Yeah. Bahrain was that's where the big medaval base is. Okay. Hey, how are we going to get to the naval base? I don't think so. So then where are we going to go? Oh, we're going to have to go to Diego Garcia. That base would be 2,500 miles away and that little base is like in the middle of nowhere. That would be a mess.

这就是为什么我问了关于误判的问题，因为你会以为白宫里的许多聪明人早就把这想明白了。

英文原文

>> And this is why I asked the question about the misunderstanding because you'd think lots of smart people that the White House would have figured out.

你说的是特朗普第一任政府时期，那时身边还有个叫马蒂斯将军的人。我们现在有的是皮特少校。而皮特少校非常擅长找出黑人和女性并把他们解雇。我是说，干得漂亮，皮特。就是……现在他们还在做睾酮检测。我没开玩笑。而且我不知道你是否还记得青春期睾酮达到峰值的时候。如果你认为那与你的最高推理能力之间存在关联，我不知道。好吧。祝你好运，皮特少校。所以这些人不是……他们在历史上是完全不胜任这项工作的。这让他们变得极其危险。他们毁掉了自己孩子的未来，也正在破坏他们所关心的共和党的前景。

英文原文

>> You're talking first Trump administration when there was a guy named General Mattis around. We now have Major Pete. And Major Pete is really good at identifying uh blacks and women and firing them. I mean, great Pete. That's And now they're doing testing on testosterone. I kid you not. And uh I don't know if you remember when you're an adolescent when testosterone's peaking. If you think there's a correlation with that and your greatest reasoning powers, I don't know. All right. Good luck with it, Major Pete. So these people are not they're historically unqualified for a job. That makes them profoundly dangerous. They've undermined the futures of their own children and they're undermining the prospects for the Republican party which they care about.

你觉得他们当时以为会发生什么？

英文原文

>> What do you think they thought was going to happen?

傲慢与战略思维

我怎么知道？我可以给你讲讲关于普遍现象的另一个想法，我称之为A型和B型美国式傲慢。A型美国式傲慢是：世界上所有重要的决定都发生在美国。好吧，祝这种想法好运。第二个，B型美国式傲慢——适用于某些科技界老哥——就是仅仅因为你非常擅长某件事，并不意味着你样样精通。你需要有谦逊的态度去理解自己专业知识的局限，以及什么时候需要倾听他人。而其中的另一部分是倾听不同的意见。我找不到自己的盲点，但也许你能找得到。跨越政治分歧进行交流是非常重要的。但现在正在发生的完全就是唯唯诺诺的应声虫。他们犯下了关键性错误。他们对美国国家安全造成了永久性损害。

英文原文

>> How do I know? I'll give you another thought about just generics. What I call type A and type B American hubris. Type A American hubris is all decisions in the world that matter, they happen in the United States. Okay, good luck with that one. And the second one, uh, type B American hubris, which applies to some of the tech, uh, bros, is just because you're really good at something doesn't make you really good at everything. And you need to have the humility to understand the limits of your expertise and when you need to listen to others. And another piece of it is listening to divergent opinion. So I can't find my blind spots, but maybe you can. And it's really important to talk across political divides. But this what's going on now is just straight up yesmen. And they've committed pivotal errors. They have permanently damaged US national security.

这是我一生中第一次听说有美国总统开始谈论夺取别国的国家。特朗普简直就像是在谈论夺取委内瑞拉一样。

英文原文

>> It's the first time in my life that I've heard of a US president start talking about taking other people's countries. It's almost like Trump was talking about taking Venezuela.

是的。是的。是的。他是个大陆主义者。

英文原文

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. He's continentalist.

他是个房地产商人。

英文原文

>> Mr. He's a He's a real estate guy.

是的。他看到的是房地产。他说他打算拿下加拿大，把它变成第51个州，我想是这样。然后他以为对付伊朗就像在公园散步一样轻松，以为只要砍掉领导人的脑袋，人民就会揭竿而起。我是说，他们就是这么说的。

英文原文

>> Yeah. He sees real estate. He was saying he was going to take Canada, make it the 51st state, I think. And then he thought, Iran would be a walk in the park, that he would behead the leader, the people would rise up. I mean, this is what they said.

是的。是的。如果你去研究，有一点非常引人入胜……所以还有另一个现象，我称之为“半场网球”。半场网球就是，如果你是美国和美国队，你只看着自己这边，刚过球网你甚至根本不去看对面的情况，对吧？我们再来谈谈足球。我不管它是美式橄榄球还是欧洲足球，道理都一样。那些真正的足球狂热爱好者，他们不仅了解主队，还了解所有的球队，对吧？所有主要的球队。而且你对球员们也都了如指掌。这还只是一项休闲运动。而在外交政策中，你却不去研究对方。我不知道你有没有看过伊朗的乐高视频。哦，你在乘飞机回去的路上真得看一看伊朗的乐高视频。

英文原文

>> Yeah. Yeah. Um, what's fascinating if you study So there's another one, what I call halfcourt tennis. Halfcourt tennis, you're only looking if you're America and team America and you just you cross at the net and you aren't even looking at things, right? And let's talk about football. And I don't care whether it's American or European football, works either way. That those who are real football enthusiasts, they know not only about the home team, but they know about all the teams, right? All the major ones. And you all you know about the players, too. This is a recreational sport. And then in foreign policy, you're not studying the other side. And I don't know if um you've seen Iran's Lego videos. Oh, you need to on the plane trip back, you need to look at Iran's Lego videos.

哦，就是他们在里面嘲弄美国的那些？

英文原文

>> Oh, where they're taking the piss out of America.

他们在——对，他们拿这些小乐高人偶做视频。它们所展现出的是伊朗人对美国人有着深刻的了解，而美国人对正在发生的事情却连上下黑白都搞不清楚。这里还有另一个也许能有所帮助的概念。

英文原文

>> They're Yeah, they're taking these little Lego characters. What they demonstrate is the Iranians have a deep understanding of Americans, whereas Americans don't know up from down on what's going on. Here's another maybe a concept that'll help.

状况与问题

生活中的状况与问题。有些事情尽管非常令人向往，但就是无法企及。对吧？如果地球上的每个人都是千万富翁，那当然很好，对吧？但这是行不通的。如果你去追求一个不可行的目标，你就会过度消耗自己。最终结果会非常糟糕。而问题则是你也许能够解决的事情。美国最伟大的一代人明白，苏联是致命的威胁，但你无法去解决它，对吧？你试图去解决它，那将是所有人面临的核毁灭结局。因此你所要做的就是对它进行管控。然后你利用国家实力的各种要素。其中之一就是制裁，以此来压制苏联的增长。然后，不像现在这样疯狂地对所有人加征关税，你当时努力要做的是在你的盟友体系内最大化经济增长。因此，对于那些守规矩的人，你想让他们的增长最大化。那些不能守规矩的人，你想让他们的增长最小化，这样随着时间的推移，相对威胁就会逐步降低。这并没有解决问题。与此同时，你还试图传播准确的信息。不是宣传，而是准确的信息，寄希望于发生代际更替时，对方也许会重新进行评估。如果他们没有改变，你在城堡的城墙后面也是绝对安全的，而且你是在以能承受的成本来应对这件事，因为制裁给他们造成的代价远远超过给你带来的代价。这是一个问题。如果你能——如果你能想明白，那就全力去解决它。但我们现在却试图去彻底解决伊朗。

英文原文

Situation of problem in life. There are certain things that as desirable as they are are just not attainable. Right? It would be great if everyone on the planet was a multi-millionaire, right? It's not feasible. And if you're going after an unfeasible objective, you're going to overextend yourself. It's going to have a very bad ending to it. A problem is something that maybe you can solve. And the United States, the greatest generation, understood that the Soviet Union lethal threat, but you couldn't solve it, right? You try to solve that and it'll be the nuclear end to all of us. And so then what you're into is managing it. And then you use various uh elements of national power. One of them was sanctions so that you're going to depress Soviet growth. And then unlike now where we're tariffing everybody, crazy land, what you're trying to do is maximize the growth within your alliance system. So for those who behave, you want to maximize their growth. Those who can't behave, you want to minimize theirs so that over time the relative threat diminishes over time. Does not solve it. And then you're also trying to get accurate information out. Uh not propaganda, but accurate information hoping that an in generational change that maybe the other side reassesses. And if they don't, you're perfectly safe behind the castle walls and you're handling this thing at affordable costs because the sanctions are really costing them much more than you're costing you a problem. If you can if you can figure it out, by all means solve it. But we're trying to solve Iran.

他们有9000万人。

英文原文

There are 90 million of them.

好了。现在给你一些数据来理解这一点，因为我之前一直在试图弄清楚这个：纳粹德国，当时它还扩大了边界。它不仅仅是今天的德国版图。它可能还包括奥地利和其他地方。我认为它当时的人口大约是8000万，而伊朗大约是9000万。据我所知——如果哪位二战历史学家告诉我我错了，我愿意听取——二战后仅仅为了占领德国，占领军的人数大约就在150万人。而这还没有算上从俄罗斯和所有其他地方涌来的数以百万计的人。所以当你说到规模相当的伊朗时，这根本是不可行的。而且你为什么要这么做？他们是一大帮伊朗人。

英文原文

All right. Now, to give you some data on how to understand this, because I was trying to figure it out, Nazi Germany, and it had extended borders. It's not just what Germany is today. It's probably includes Austria and other things. It had a population I think of about 80 million is in Iran like 90 million. I think the occupation force as best I can tell and I'll defer to some World War II his historian tells me I'm wrong is about 1.5 million was the occupation force after World War II just to occupy Germany. But that's not taking into account all the millions of people coming from Russia everywhere else. So when you're talking Iran equivalent size, it's not feasible. And like why would you want to do it? They're a bunch of Iranians.

你想做的是以可承受的成本去遏制核问题。那就是奥巴马的协议，对吧？联合国安理会所有的常任理事国都在上面签了字，还有欧盟。他们认为这是他们能做到的最好的方案。当时有非常具有侵入性的核查系统，以促使伊朗缩减其核能力。它完美吗？不。但它是可行的，并且它化解了威胁，使之处于可承受的范围。现在，对伊朗来说教训是什么？

英文原文

You want to contain the the nuclear thing at affordable cost. And that was the the Obama deal, right? That was all the permanent members of the the uh UN Security Council signed on to that and the EU. They thought it was the best they can do. had this really intrusive inspection system to get Iran to dial back its nuclear capabilities. Was it perfect? No. But it was feasible and it mitigated the threat to make it bearable. Now, what's the lesson for Iran?

你认为现在对所有人来说教训是什么？

英文原文

What do you suppose the lesson is for everybody now

叫做去搞个核武器，对吧？有了这些战争，就好像如果你没有核武器，你就完蛋了。

英文原文

called get a nuke, right? With these wars, it's like if you don't have one, you're toast.

我们助长了核扩散。普京先是用他的战争，然后我们又搞了这桩伊朗的事情。这是极其弄巧成拙的。

英文原文

We have incentivized proliferation. uh Putin with his war initially and then us with this Iran thing. It's it's profoundly self-defeating.

你之前把它称为关键性错误，这也是你的另一个……

英文原文

>> You referred to it as a pivotal error, which is another one of your uh

是的。好的。

英文原文

>> Yeah. Okay.

你的概念。

英文原文

>> your concepts.

嗯，我认为提出这些概念的原因是你可以把它们用在其他事情上。好的。关键性错误就是，一旦你犯下了它，你之前拥有的选择比你现在拥有的要好得多。而且你永远也找不回过去的选择。所以想想弗拉基米尔·普京，他入侵乌克兰就是个关键性错误。俄罗斯简直把自己的冷战军火库消耗殆尽了。普京原本本可以做得更好，当年他派那些小绿人轻松进入克里米亚和顿巴斯，只要守住那里，在若干年里慢慢瓦解乌克兰的稳定就行了。对吧？相反，他极大地促进了乌克兰民族认同的形成。民族认同往往是在战争中产生的。事实上，英国极大地促进了……的发展

英文原文

>> Well, I think that these concepts, the reason for doing it is you can use them for other things. All right. Pivotal error is once you've made it, the choices that you had before, they're a lot better than ones you have now. and you never get the old ones back. So you think about Vladimir Putin, his invasion of Ukraine, pivotal error. Russia is just uh has burned through its cold war arsenal. Putin would have been doing much better when he did the easy walking with his little green men into Crimea and Donbass of just sitting with that and slowly destabilizing Ukraine over a number of years. Right? Instead, he has massively contributed to Ukrainian national identity. National identities often come out of wars. In fact, Britain massively contributed to the development of

美国在独立战争期间的国家认同，也是因为原本都是各自独立的殖民地，而到独立战争结束时，已经拥有了凝聚力强得多的国家意识，并且由此发展出了所有这些国家机构。你看乌克兰现在也是这样。所以，这是一个关键的转折点。而在伊朗战争问题上，对我们来说，我们已经失去了我们的盟友体系。当然，换了别人可以重新评估，也会尝试恢复这些关系，但我们再也无法成为那个受信任的伙伴了。彻底结束了。

英文原文

the US national identity during the American Revolution because it was all these separate colonies that by the time that revolution was over had a much more cohesive sense of nation and um all these national institutions that grow up as a result of it. You see Ukraine's doing that as as well. So, a pivotal error. And then for us on the Iran war, we've lost our alliance system. Sure, someone else can reassess and we'll try to restore stuff, but we will never be the trusted partner ever again. It's done.

基于规则的国际秩序与规范

你说过二战后的世界正在瓦解，我们现在正走向一场可能以核战争告终的第二次冷战。萨拉，究竟是什么在瓦解？

英文原文

>> You said the postw World War II world is collapsing and we are now going into a second cold war that could end in nuclear war. What is What is it that's collapsing, Sarah?

嗯，各种体系运转的方式不就是依靠规范、依靠我们去遵守规范吗？对此我的理解方式就像交通一样。我们大多数人，无论你在哪个国家、规定在道路的哪一边行驶，你就会照做；然后有红绿灯，你也会遵守。我知道有人会超速之类的，但大多数人还是在遵守道路交通规则，而且根本就没有足够的——如果某天所有人决定随心所欲，永远都不可能有足够的警察去强制执行。那只会陷入一片混乱，对吧？所以，基于规则的秩序始终是建立在大家遵守规范的基础之上的，美国的法律秩序也是建立在每个人大体上都遵守规范的基础之上的。

英文原文

>> Well, isn't it the way um systems work is by norms that we follow norms. And the way I think about it is like traffic. So, most of us whatever side of the road you're supposed to drive on in whatever country you're in, you do that and then there's stop lights and you do that and I get it that people speed and stuff, but mostly people are following the the rules of the road and there aren't nearly enough. If everyone decided to just do whatever on a given day, there aren't enough policemen ever to enforce that. It would just be mayhem, right? So the rules-based order was always based on norms of following them and the US legal order was based on norms of everyone more or less following them.

给我举几个这种规范的例子。

英文原文

>> Give me an example of some of those norms.

嗯，比如当你输掉选举时，会说“祝贺对方，我下次会做得更好”，而不是“噢不，他们作弊了”。

英文原文

>> Um when you lose an election to go um I uh congratulate the other side and uh I will do better next time instead of oh no they cheated.

现在美国正在退出这一秩序。这造成的生存威胁促成了欧洲以极其惊人的速度进行机构建设。速度快得令人难以置信——

英文原文

Now the United States is pulling out of this order. The existential threat that this is posing has led to the most rapid institution building uh in Europe. It's incredibly fast

机构建设。

英文原文

>> institution building.

是的。比如波罗的海八国——也就是北欧国家，对吧？有芬兰、瑞典、挪威，然后是丹麦。这是四个。斯堪的纳维亚国家，然后是波罗的海国家，爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛。冰岛也是其中的一部分。他们一直在联合组织各种安全事务。再军事化正在进行。各地也都在建设太空港。英国从60年代起就拥有太空港，挪威、瑞典也是。英国还打算在设得兰群岛新建一个。这是因为你们大家都要发射自己的卫星系统了。而且我认为你们大家也受够了我们的信用卡支付系统，打算在本地解决。还推出了一款应用程序。显然，在欧洲如果你想买东西，你的应用程序会立即告诉你某件商品是不是美国货，这样你就可以不买那个产品。这被称为带有B字头的抵制（boycott），由于做出这一系列举动，美国现在正遭遇这种抵制。你还看到加拿大总理卡尼四处奔走，联络组织中间大国。那将成为新的世界秩序。它正在展开。

英文原文

>> Yeah. You got uh the Baltic 8 that are so you got um Nordic countries, right? You got Finland, Sweden, Norway, and then Denmark. That makes four. And uh the the Scandinavian countries and then you got the Baltic, Estonia, Latia, and Lithuania. And then Iceland's part of this as well. And so they've been organizing all sorts of security things together. There's remilitarization going on. Uh there's also work on space ports all over the place. Britain is since the 60s has space ports. So has Norway, Sweden. Britain's going to build a new one up in the Shetland Islands. And it's because you all are going to be launching your own satellite system. And I think also you all are sick of our credit card payment systems. You're going to do that locally. There's an app that's been put out. Apparently, if in Europe you want to buy stuff, your app will tell you immediately whether a product is American or not. So, you don't have to buy that product. It's called the B-word boycott, which is happening to America right now as a result of doing all of this. And you've seen Prime Minister Carney of Canada traveling everywhere organizing the middle powers. That'll be the new world order. It's unfolding.

而美国，它作为一个国家已经走向失控。我们曾在两次世界大战中站在正确的一方，在许多许多方面做出了极其积极的贡献。而我们现在的所作所为是如此消极，对我们孩子们的未来也造成了深远的负面影响。

英文原文

And the United States is uh it's it's gone rogue as America. It's uh we're on the right side of two world wars. Made an incredibly positive contribution in many many ways. And what we're doing now is so negative and it's profoundly negative for the futures of our children.

有限目标与无限目标

你对那些说“萨拉，我们应该远离这些战争、我们应该置身于乌克兰局势之外”的人怎么说？

英文原文

>> Would you say to the people that say Sarah, we should stay out of these wars. We should stay out of the Ukraine situation.

无论如何，绝不要像我们过去在中东那样，到处派遣作战部队。你要让像乌克兰这样的人处于能够成功的地位。你不需要派任何军队去那里，但是给他们解决问题所需的东西。那是成本低廉的做法。不低廉的做法则是毁掉我们的盟友体系。所以现在大家都在抵制我们。美国的各行各业都因此受到伤害，从——那叫什么来着？肯塔基波本威士忌制造商不得不倒闭。绝不骗你，因为加拿大人不买我们的酒了。你想想看，如果你做生意，假设加拿大只占你业务的5%或10%。好吧，如果他们抵制你，那可能就是你的全部利润率了，对吧？加拿大正在安排向欧洲和其他地方出售其能源，并试图对我们去风险，而这完全是我们的错。我们威胁了他们。

英文原文

By all means, do not send combat troops all over the place, which is what we were doing in the Middle East. You position people like Ukraine to succeed. You don't have to send any troops there, but uh give them what they need to solve this. That is the cheap thing to do. The uh unche is blow our alliance system. So now people are boycotting us. There are all kinds of industries in the United States that are being hurt by this from uh what is it? Kentucky bourbon makers have to shut down. Kid you not cuz the Canadians won't buy our booze. You think about it. If you have a business, let's say Canada's only 5 or 10% of your business. Well, if they boycott you, that might be your profit margin, right? Canada's arranging to uh sell its energy to Europe and other places and trying to derisk from us and it's entirely our fault. We threaten them.

人们会说，“你看，我们不想、我们不想为别人的战争买单。萨拉，这会——我们不知道这会持续多久，这得花那么多钱。”你对那些人怎么回应？

英文原文

>> People say that, you know, we don't want to we don't want to have to pay for someone else's war. Sarah, it's going to we don't know how long it's going to last. It's going to cost so much money. What do you say to those people?

这又回到了有限目标和无限目标的问题。无限目标就是政权更迭，其最极端的变种还包括种族灭绝。希特勒两样都占了，对吧？而普京拥有非常无限的目标变种，因为他不仅想吞并乌克兰，还想消灭很大一部分政府人员，甚至包括幼童。那就是——他曾试图处决泽连斯基一家。什么样的人会做出那种事？此外，他还要消灭乌克兰文化的传播者，把他们杀掉。这就叫种族灭绝。所以你可以看到一个完整的光谱，对吧？你可以拥有最极端的、包含种族灭绝加上政权更迭的目标；再往这边一点，就仅仅是政权更迭；然后有限的目标意味着“我只要你半个国家”，一直延伸到“我不知道，我希望你在足球赛上对我客气点”，诸如此类。

英文原文

>> It goes back to limited and unlimited objectives. And unlimited objective is regime change and the most unlimited variant is genocide as well. So Hitler had both, right? And Putin has very unlimited variant because he wants to not only take over Ukraine, but he also wants to shoot up a good part of the government down to small children. That was he was trying to execute the Zilinski family. What what person does that sort of stuff? In addition, he wants to uh eliminate the purveyors of Ukrainian culture. You kill them. And that's called genocide. So you can have a whole continuum, right? You can have the most li unlimited thing of genocide plus regime change and you come a little bit over and it's just regime change and then the limited stuff means I only want half your country too all the way down to I don't know I want you to be polite to me at football games whatever it is.

我认为这就是俄罗斯所处的位置，我也可能看错，而在对与错的问题上，关键是要不断重新评估。不要担心犯错。当你意识到自己搞错了，你应该做的是承认“我得到了新信息，这就是为什么我现在的想法不同了”。但我认为俄罗斯拥有无限目标，普京想要恢复旧日的苏联帝国。这存在很多问题，其中之一就是你想想俄罗斯这个国家。在历代沙皇统治下，俄罗斯自古以来就是欧洲的死水洼地。你能想出哪怕一种你曾经想买的俄罗斯产品吗？

英文原文

So this is where Russia comes in I believe and I could be wrong and the key on being right or wrong is you should constantly reassess. Don't worry about being wrong. Uh what you do when you realize you got it wrong is say I got new information and here's why I think differently but I believe that Russia has unlimited objectives that Putin wants to restore the old Soviet empire. There are many problems with that. One of them is you think about Russia. Russia's been the backwater of Europe forever under the Zars. Can you think of one Russian product that you have ever wanted to buy?

不予置评。好吧。

英文原文

>> No comment. Okay.

让我给你一点提示。斯米诺（Smirnoff）是一家英国公司，对吧？他们甚至都不生产伏特加。所以就是这些未——制造品，不，就只是基础的初级产品。所以它拥有一个失败的经济模式。接着在冷战期间，它到处输出共产主义，让各地的生活水平出现倒退。当你那么做的时候，会牵涉到大量的死亡，因为孩子们得不到疫苗，还有各种各样的事情在你那么做时都无法开展。这就是俄罗斯过去的所作所为。而现在普京凭着其纯粹无能的历史遗产，居然认为自己有权统治所有人。真正的情况是什么？他是一个大陆主义者，所以他想偷光所有人的东西。还记得乌克兰战争初期，人们在偷洗衣机吗？那可是个相当沉的偷窃物件。我是说，谁会去偷那个？没有洗衣机的人才会，对吧？而乌克兰人不想那样生活。

英文原文

And let me give you a little hint. Smeirnoffs is a British company, right? They don't even produce the vodka. So, it's these unre uh these manufactured goods. No, it's just a basic primary goods. So, it has a failing economic model. Then during the cold war, it's exporting communism everywhere, setting back uh living standards everywhere. When you do that, it involves a lot of deaths because there are children who aren't getting vaccines and all kinds of things that are not happening when you're doing that. So that's what Russia's done. And now Putin thinks uh based on his sheer legacy of incompetence that now he has the right to rule everyone else. What's really going on? He's a continentalist and so he wants to steal everyone else's stuff. Remember in the beginning of the Ukraine war, people were stealing washing machines. That would be a rather heavy item to steal. I mean, who would do that? someone without washing machines, right? And uh the Ukrainians don't want to live that way.

他低估他们了吗？

英文原文

>> Did he underestimate them?

是的，当然。这是典型的表现。可能存在俄罗斯那种A型傲慢。俄罗斯人的灵魂优于所有人，因为他们找不出自己在什么方面更优越，所以就会搬出一些像“灵魂”这样抽象的东西。那好，证明给我看。泽连斯基告诉我，当俄罗斯士兵开进来时，他发现他们带了3到10天的口粮。所以他们以为战争在三到十天内就会结束。而且他们还带了用来庆祝、举行胜利阅兵的军礼服，因为他们以为战争会那么容易。

英文原文

>> Yeah, of course. That's typical. Uh there's probably Russian type A hubris. The Russian soul superior to all others cuz they can't figure out what they're superior on. So, they're going to come up with something that's abstract like their soul. Well, prove it. Zalinsky told me that when the Russian soldiers rolled in, he found that they had brought food for 3 to 10 days. So, they thought the war would be over in three or 10 days. And also that they brought uniforms to celebrate to do a victory parade because they thought the war was going to be that easy.

而他们面对的却是乌克兰平民朝他们的坦克投掷莫洛托夫鸡尾酒（燃烧瓶）。

英文原文

>> And what they were met with is Ukrainians civilians throwing Molotov cocktails at their tanks.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yeah.

你看起来好像还有别的问题。

英文原文

>> You look as if you have another question.

这只是很有意思，因为——是的。这又是，我们刚才正好谈到低估伊朗，但也同样存在一种傲慢发生在了——

英文原文

>> It's just it's interesting because Yeah. It's again, we were just talking about underestimating Iran, but There is a hubris as well that's taken place with

俄罗斯人身上。他们低估了——

英文原文

>> the Russians. They've underestimated

这个民族的文化。死地。

英文原文

>> the culture of the people. Death ground.

是的。如果你有一个无限目标，你所做的就是——如果我对你抱有无限目标，我就是把你置于死地。这意味着什么？这意味着如果你不反抗，我就会直接过来杀了你。所以你唯一的选择就是战斗，因为他们横竖都会杀掉你。所以如果你拥有这些无限目标，

英文原文

>> Yeah. If you have an unlimited objective, what you're doing is if I have an unlimited objective against you, I'm putting you on death ground. What does that mean? It means if you don't fight, I'm going to just come kill you. And so your only alternative is to fight cuz they're going to just kill you. So if you have these unlimited objectives,

冲突延宕、选举机制与“大陆主义”扩张

预期一场恶战，而这可能把最运转失常的国家变成致命的对手，正如当年希特勒在苏联身上所领教到的那样。斯大林枪决了大量自己的军官团成员。他在原本是粮仓的乌克兰制造了饥荒——这与普京现在对乌克兰所做的一模一样。而美国无疑正对伊朗做着同样的事。据我了解，已经离世的那位阿亚图拉过去是反对拥有核武的。谁也不能说继任者会反对拥有核武。如果只要唐纳德·特朗普和内塔尼亚胡在位，他们就身处死地，那你认为他们会怎么做？

英文原文

expect one hell of a fight and it can transform the most dysfunctional country into a lethal adversary as Hitler discovered with uh the Soviet Union back in the day. Stalin had shot a lot of his officer corps. He created a famine in Ukraine, which is a bread basket, which is exactly what Putin is has done to Ukraine now. And what the United States is undoubtedly doing to Iran. My understanding is the uh Ayatollah who's gone was against having nukes. No one says who comes after him is against having nukes. If they're on death ground as long as Donald Trump and BB Netanyahu are in power, what do you think they're going to do?

他们会一直制造麻烦，直到那两个人下台。对吧？所以，那些想让内塔尼亚胡和特朗普执政更久的人只要明白，这只会让伊朗持续闹下去；然后我很担心特朗普会做出像在某处投掷战术核武器之类的事，到那时一切就真的彻底完了。美国将永远沦为这个卑鄙的国家。世界上唯一曾对别国投过核武的国家。在日本投了两次，然后我们要对伊朗投第三次。

英文原文

They're going to cause trouble until those two people are out of power. Right? And so people who want to keep Netanyahu and Trump in power longer just understand it's going to make Iran go on uh longer and then I'm terrified that uh Trump will do something like drop a tactical nuke somewhere and then things are really over. Uh the United States will be forever this despicable country. The only country in the world that's ever dropped nukes on anyone. Twice on Japan and then we're going to do a third on Iran.

你认为这说得通吗？这……

英文原文

Do you think that's plausible? That

我毫无头绪。如果你10年前告诉我，我们现在的处境哪怕有一丁点合理性，我都会说：“你疯了。你最近抽什么了？”美国竟然要抛弃我们的盟友，告诉加拿大你们是我们的第51个州，然后告诉格陵兰人，我们要把格陵兰从你们手里夺走，所以老实点。这……换作过去我会觉得这简直荒谬透顶。谁会干这种事？

英文原文

>> I have no idea. If if you had told me 10 years ago that where we're at is was even remotely plausible, I would say, "You're insane. What have you been smoking lately?" The United States was going to toss our alliances, tell Canada you're our 51st state, and then tell Green Ms, we're going to take Greenland from you and therefore behave yourselves. It I would have thought that just ludicrous. Who would do that?

对于那些亲身经历加油机油价上涨的人，你会对他们说什么呢？由于这场战争以及由此引发的能源冲击，他们眼看着物价攀升。他们希望……他们希望战争结束。所以他们会说：“听着，

英文原文

What do you say to people who are experiencing their gas prices go up at the pump? They're seeing costs rise because of this war and because of the energy shock that's taken place because of it. And they want they want it to end. So they're saying, "Listen,

去投票。

英文原文

>> vote.

去投票。”三分之一的美国人投票支持了我们当下的现状。三分之一的人投票支持了除此以外的任何方案。还有三分之一的人甚至懒得离开沙发。离开你的沙发去投票吧，因为这对你的孩子们至关重要。在美国，美国人需要开始彼此对话。这种“只有我的政党才能赢”的想法太疯狂了。两党制是绝对必要的，因为不然你怎么看清盲区呢？另外，你会关注特朗普。你希望你的燃油税费价格降下来。他可不会就这场战争进行重新审视。他只会继续走下去。在民主制度下，由于人们不情愿说“天啊，我搞砸了”——而我们所有人都会犯错——你重新审视的方式，就是把另一个政党选上台。但只要一想到欧洲这边的现状，因为我正在想一位最近一直在发推文的特定朋友，

英文原文

>> Vote." Onethird of Americans voted for where we're at now. Onethird voted for anything but this. And then one-third couldn't get off their couch. Get off your couch and vote because it matters for your children. that in the United States, Americans need to start talking to each other. This only my party can win. Crazy. A two-party state is absolutely necessary cuz how do you see blind spots? Also, you will watch Trump. You want your gas tax prices to go down. He's not going to reassess on this war. He's just going to keep on going. The way you reassess in democracies since people are reluctant to say, "Gee, I got it wrong." And we all get it wrong, is you elect the other party. But if I just think about what's going on here in Europe, because I'm thinking about a particular friend who's been doing some tweets recently,

嗯，她一直在发推特说，因为英国的开支似乎在上涨，汽油还有其他东西，我们应该干脆让……她是这么说的。她说我们应该干脆让俄罗斯拿下乌克兰，然后那就意味着能源问题将得以稳定。

英文原文

>> um, and she's been tweeting that because the costs in the UK seem to be rising, petrol, and other things, we should just let, this is what she said. She said we should just let Russia take the Ukraine and then that'll mean that energy will be stabilized.

我明白她的想法因何而起。我明白。但这是……战争学院里的战争基本法则是：敌人也有选择权。也就是说，无论你喜不喜欢，俄罗斯人都会冲着你来。

英文原文

>> I get it where she's coming from. I get it. But it's uh one of the war staples in war colleges is the enemy gets a vote. Meaning that the Russians are going to come for you whether you like it or not.

我们怎么知道这一点？

英文原文

>> How do we know that?

你没法知道，对吧？你没法确知。但我可以看看俄罗斯的历史。他们是大陆主义者。他们一直在向前、向前、向前推进。然后我想你有一张地图，展示了德涅斯特河沿岸以及所有那些地方。

英文原文

>> You don't know, right? You don't know. But I can look at Russian history. They're continentalists. They go forward, forward, forward. And then I think you've got some kind of map that shows what Transnistria and all those places.

噢，这张。

英文原文

>> Oh, this one.

是的。好的。看看我能不能通过这种方式来展示。这些就是普京占领的地方。嗯，这个时间更早一些，而这个一直延续到冷战结束。这是他的盟友。

英文原文

>> Yeah. All right. cell if I can do that this way. So these are the places that Putin has taken. Well, this one's earlier and uh this one comes to the end of the cold war. This is his buddy.

所以他基本上占领了白俄罗斯，但是……

英文原文

>> So he's basically taken Barus, but

嗯，是的，政治层面上。嗯，他……是的，没错。然后……然后他从乌克兰夺走了所有这些东西，但这些地方是他占领的……普京是怎么在第二次车臣战争中上台的，而俄罗斯人喜欢这一点。那就是他崛起的方式。然后在2008年，他向格鲁吉亚动手，并帮助这两个地方分离出去。但如果你仔细审视，如果你能在这里画一个圈，那就是大陆……我不知道你有没有看过《杰森一家》，那个有一艘太空船的卡通片。它是圆的。大陆主义者看着他们的控制面板。那是……但那是围绕着他们那艘小小太空船在所有那些边界上展开的360度全景，而且你想要向外延展。所以这是A计划。而在实现A计划之后，他们会继续前行。这种情况已经持续很长时间了。对于你的那位朋友来说，这就像是：你有什么证据？拿给我看看他们会停下来。拿证据给我看。在他们的历史中有哪一点能让你得出这种结论？我理解你希望冲突结束。这是另一场悲剧。

英文原文

>> uh yeah politically. Well, he Yeah, that's right. And so and he's taken all this stuff from Ukraine, but these places he took uh what is he Putin comes to power in the second Chetchin war and Russians like that. Uh that's how he rises. And then in 2008, he goes after Georgia and helps these two places separate. But if you look at it, if you could draw a circle here, it's a continental I don't know if you ever watched the Jetsons, the uh cartoon where you got a spaceship. It's round. Continentalist is looking at their dashboard. It's but it's 360° around their little spaceship on all those borders and you want to extend outwards. So this is the the plan A. And then after you get plan A, they keep on going. It's been this way for a long time. And for your friend, it'd be like, uh, what evidence do you have? Uh, show it to me that they're going to stop. Show me that. What in their in their history gives you that? I understand that you wish it to end. This is another tragedy.

冷战终结与创伤记忆

所以我们经历过冷战，在老布什和赫尔穆特·科尔的领导下按照西方预设的条件结束，在终结战争方面做得很漂亮。真是在西方预设的条件上做得极其漂亮。然后我们迎来了不可思议的——这正是你成长的那段时期——不可思议的冷战间期，当时中国和俄罗斯向内收敛，美国也大体上遵循规则，从而不会出现对立双方在全世界各地资助敌对叛乱势力的局面，而战争只会烧毁财富，对吧？设想一下，如果普京保留了乌克兰的任何一部分，那也是一团发光的烂摊子，对吧？它已经被夷为平地了。你只是在摧毁事物。但他们也会继续战斗下去，不是吗？泽连斯基就是这么跟我说的。他说：

英文原文

So we had the cold war that ended on western terms with Bush senior and helmet cole did a masterful job at war termination. Truly masterful on on western terms. And then we had the magical, this is when you were growing up, the magical intercol war period where China and Russia turn inward and the United States is more or less following the rules so that you don't have opposing sides funding opposing sides of insurgencies all over the world and war is just torch wealth, right? Think about if Putin keeps any part of Ukraine, it's a glowing mess, right? It's been leveled. You're just destroying things. But they're going to continue to fight as well, aren't they? This is what Zalinsky told me. He said,

“他们会永远战斗下去。”是的。他说了什么？他是个真实的人。

英文原文

>> "They're going to go forever." Yeah. What did he said? He's the real person.

他对我说了些我觉得相当有启发性的话，而我认为人们并没有考虑到这一点。他告诉我，他曾去过并发现——仅举一例——一处俄军士兵留下的战壕，里面有500具遭受酷刑的尸体。这些尸体都被捆绑着。

英文原文

>> He said something to me which I found to be quite illuminating and I don't think people consider. He said to me he had gone and found, just one example, a trench, what the Russian soldiers had left where there was 500 tortured bodies in it. These bodies were tied up.

天啊。

英文原文

>> Oh god.

嗯，各个年龄段的都有。他说这……他其实是在暗示，认为那些深坑中死难者的家属会就这么任由事态突然停止、并且认为他们不会继续渴望复仇，是非常幼稚的。泽连斯基亲口对我讲，他说看到那一幕之后——而且他是当场说出来的——他说：“我知道我或许不该这么说，但他确实说过他渴望复仇。”他说：“如果你见到了我所看到的一切，你也会渴望复仇的。”俄罗斯人所犯下的罪行罄竹难书。在我大半辈子里，德国人都因在世界大战中所发生的事而戴着耻辱之冠——一战稍弱，但主要是二战，他们在二战中真是把令人发指推向了新高度。好吧，“坏蛋弗拉德”，他现在替进军的俄罗斯人戴上了这顶冠冕，因为德国人改革了他们的教育体制，如今没有任何一个德国人需要对当年发生的事情承担任何责任。但现在有很多俄罗斯人对眼下的所作所为负有责任。噢，俄罗斯人还有一套说辞。他们会说：“噢，苏联和我们没有任何关系。那是……你知道的，我们是俄罗斯人。那是苏联。”请原谅。正是俄罗斯主导运作了苏联。那是你们的。你们拥有它。你试想一下法……法国人使用“法兰西”这个词的方式。它包含了所有五个共和国。它包含了所有的君主制。它包含了拿破仑等等。我们所有人都知道那就是法兰西。只有俄罗斯人试图声称：“噢，那是苏联。我们跟那没有任何关系。”不，你们跟那脱不了干系。你们毫无悔意。所以对于你的那位朋友来说，如果纵观俄罗斯历史的长河，那是非常可怕的。过去在罗曼诺夫王朝统治下，他们至少还渴望与西欧保持联系。尽管我想尼古拉二世曾说过：“好吧，你们知道的，我们落后了200年，所以我们要按我们自己的方式来做。”好吧，一旦到了共产党人手里，他们就想要颠覆整个资本主义世界秩序。而普京并没有改变。大陆主义者极其危险。他们想做的是把世界划分成势力范围，就像欧亚大陆古老的帝国那样。因此他们将在这些势力范围的边缘就谁能瓜分到什么争斗不休。

英文原文

>> Um and they were of all ages. And he said it's he kind of implied that it's very naive to think that the families of those people in those ditches are just going to allow there to be a sudden stop to this and that they're not going to continue to want revenge. And Zillinsky said to me, he said after seeing that and he said it, he said, "I know I probably shouldn't say this, but he said that he wants revenge." He says, "If you see what I saw, you would want revenge, too." The Russians are it's unspeakable what they've done. In most of my life, Germans wore the crown of infamy for what had happened in World War less so World War I, but it's World War II where they just it's really it takes heinous to a new level. Well, Vlad the Bad, he is now owns that crown for Russians going in because Germans have reformed their educational system and there's no German now who has any responsibility for what happened back then. But there are lots of Russians who have responsibility for going on right now. And oh, another piece of Russians. They go, "Oh, Soviet Union has nothing to do with us. That's, you know, we're Russians. That was the Soviet Union." Excuse me. Russia is what ran the Soviet Union. It's yours. you own it. You think about like the the way French f French use the word France. It includes all five republics. It includes all the monarchies. It includes Napoleon and stuff. We all know it's France. It's just the Russians who were trying to say, "Oh, it's the Soviet Union. We had nothing to do with that." No, you had everything to do with that. You're unrepentant. So for your friend, if you look at the long arc of Russian history, it's terrible. It used to be under the Romanov dynasty at least they aspired to have connections with Western Europe. Although I think Nicholas II said, "Well, you know, we're 200 years behind, so we're going to do do it our way." Well, once you get the communists, they want to overthrow the entire capitalist world order. And Putin hasn't changed. The Continentalists are profoundly dangerous. What they want to do is divide the world into spheres of influence like the old empires of Eurasia. And so they're going to be fighting on the edges of these spheres of influence about who gets what.

谁是大陆主义者？俄罗斯、中国。

英文原文

>> Who are the continentalists? Russia, China.

是的。俄罗斯、中国。唐纳德·特朗普。他正对加拿大领土提出主张。他正对格陵兰提出主张。他绑架了一位国家元首。我明白。那家伙令人憎恶。我绝非马杜罗的支持者。我是说，看看这场战争。我们讨论过……

英文原文

>> Yep. Russia, China. Uh Donald Trump. He's claiming Canadian territory. He's claiming uh Greenland. He's uh kidnapped a head of state. Uh I get it. The guy's reprehensible. I'm no fan of Maduro. I mean, look at the war. We've discussed

伊朗战争带来的所有问题。你谈到你在英国的朋友正被汽油价格压垮。好吧，那是谁的错？

英文原文

all the problems from the war in Iran. You're talking about your friend in Britain who's being wrecked by the petrol prices. Okay. Whose fault is that?

特朗普的。

英文原文

>> Trump's.

是的，确实是。

英文原文

>> Yeah, it is.

特朗普会说是拜登的错。

英文原文

>> Trump would say it was Biden's fault.

哦，一切都是拜登的错。

英文原文

>> Oh, everything's Biden's fault.

他，你知道，他最喜欢说的一句话就是：“要是我在位，这场战争绝不会发生。”他总是这么说。

英文原文

>> He, you know, he often his favorite line is to say, "This war never would have happened if I was in power." That's what he says all the time.

是啊，可这一场就是他挑起来的。呃，所以有意思的是，长期研究外交政策——这并没有让我对所有事情都去写，但确实非常罕见，像国内政策也是如此——你推行一项政策，无论是什么，实施一项新法律，然后就会产生后果，但这些后果通常要经过数年才会显现。所以很难说是不是这项法律确切导致了这个结果。很难讲。但在这次战争中不是这样。

英文原文

>> Yeah, except he started this one. Uh so it what's fascinating in having studied foreign policy forever. It doesn't make me write about anything but it's really rare or like domestic policy as well that you do a policy whatever it is put a new law in effect and then there are consequences of it but the consequences usually roll out out over years. So it's hard to say did this law exactly cause this outcome. It's hard to say. Not in this war.

哪一场？

英文原文

>> Which one?

呃，伊朗战争。这太明显了。每次你在加油机前加满油，你每周都会被提醒一次：唐纳德·特朗普的战争严重坑了你。这不是拜登造成的。

英文原文

>> Uh the Iran war. It's just obvious. Every time you load up at the pump, you have a weekly reminder that Donald Trump's war has done a number on you. It's not Biden.

他会说：“我们不能让伊朗获得核武器。”

英文原文

>> He would say, "We couldn't let Iran get nuclear weapons."

按照他所做的，现在他们更有可能会获得核武器，他刺激了他们去获得核武器。关于唐纳德·特朗普，我的看法是这样的：他以提供准确信息而闻名吗？

英文原文

>> It's much more likely now that they will get nuclear weapons doing what he's incentivized them to get nuclear weapons. Here's my my thing about Donald Trump. Is he known for for um providing accurate information?

你清楚那个问题的答案，你的所有观众也一样。这就是把谎言常态化的问题所在，这正是美国正在发生的事情。第一，没人喜欢被欺骗，对吧？如果你是个内幕交易者，也许你喜欢这样，如果你能得到你的那点事实，而其他所有人都在被欺骗。好吧。苏联在很大程度上就是一个因建立在谎言之上而崩溃的社会。它是这样运作的：如果由于一切都由计划、由这个共产主义计划掌控，假设你在做你自己的、哪怕他们当时也有播客，你决定新年需要多少台摄像机，库存里有多少台，或者你认为你的员工规模是多少，你就会夸大你认为自己需要的数量，因为你不能确定计划会不会批给你；而且你会少报你已有的数量，同样是因为你不确定自己能不能得到补给。所以，整个经济体里的每个人都在这么做。他们汇总了所有那些数据。那就是垃圾。你在权力阶梯上爬得越高，数据就越荒谬。但在莫斯科市中心，他们正在制定一个分配资源的计划。他们严重错配了资本和劳动力，而且在灾难扩散并彻底瓦解那个地方之前，他们都没有察觉。再给你看另一件事：经济翻倍的时间在不同增长率下取决于以下方程——2的自然对数除以该增长率。如果你的经济每年增长1%，它将在大约69、70年左右翻倍。如果你的增长率是3%，也就是2%的差距，你在23年内就能翻倍。所以，如果你干出自加关税这种蠢事，或者卷入一场推高物价、把事情搞得一团糟的战争，或者如果你稍微聪明一点去制裁对方，从而只有对方在承受这种代价，并且你剥夺了对方2%的增长，他们就不是等23年翻倍，而是要等71年。那可是一段漫长的等待。因此，这些都是人们在面对我们正在犯下的此类错误所产生的累积效应时没有考虑到的事情。另外还有制裁相比于战争的优势。制裁并不能解决问题，但你缩减了对手的储蓄存量，如果你与盟友合作，你就在发展自己。所以这是一种化疗形式。你并没有消除肿瘤，但你试图让它缩小。

英文原文

You know the answer to that question as do all of your viewers. And here's the problem with normalizing lies, which is what's going on in the United States. A, no one likes being lied to, right? If you're an insider traitor, maybe you like it if you you get your little truth and then you everyone else is being lied to. All right. The Soviet Union was a society that collapsed in large part because it was built on lies. Here's how it worked. If you since it's all run by a plan, this communist plan, so you're running your little, let's say they even had podcasts, and you decide however many cameras you need a new year and how many you got on stock or whatever you think your staff is, you're going to exaggerate what you think you need because you aren't sure the plan's going to give it to you and you're going to understate what you have again because you're not sure you're going to get things. So, everyone's doing that across an economy. They're aggregating all that data. It's garbage. The further up the food chain you go, the more ludicrous the data is. But there in central Moscow, they're coming up with a plan that's going to allocate things. They are grossly misallocating capital, labor, and they don't notice that it's a disaster until it's metastasized and it shatters the place. Another thing to give you, an economy doubles at different growth rates according to the following equation. the natural log of two over whatever that growth rate is. If your economy grows at 1% perom it'll double in 69 70 years something like that. If you uh grow at 3% so it's 2% differential you'll double in 23 years. So if you do dumbasserie like tariff yourself or you get into a war that's going to send prices up and just mess things uh up or if you're a little smarter and you sanction the other guy so only the other guy is experiencing this and you knock off 2% growth instead of waiting 23 years to double you're going to wait 71. That's a long wait. So these are the things that people aren't considering of the cumulative effects of making the kind of errors that we're making. Also the advantages of sanctions over wars. Sanctions don't solve problems but you're shrinking the opposing piggy bank and if you cooperate with allies you're growing yourself. So it's a form of chemotherapy. You don't eliminate the tumor but you try to shrink it back.

俄罗斯的历史与当下局势

你的博士学位是俄国……是历史吗？是的。那么关于俄乌局势接下来可能会发生什么，俄国历史——我想总体的地缘政治历史也是如此——告诉了我们什么？这是否取决于其他盟友的行动，或者你认为普京是否已经犯下了一个关键性错误？

英文原文

>> You have a PhD in Russian. Is it history? Yeah. So what does Russian history tell us is and I guess geopolitical history generally is likely to happen next as it relates to the Russian Ukraine situation and is it dependent on what other allies do or do you think there's already a pivotal error that's been made by Putin?

哦，大局已定。他只会继续往前走。

英文原文

>> Oh it's it's already done. He's just going to go forward.

他只会继续往前走。

英文原文

>> He's just going to go forward.

他只会不断升级并继续往前走。没错。

英文原文

>> He's just going to escalate and keep going forward. Yep.

因为他不能、他无法回头。他并不……我是说……

英文原文

>> Because he can't he can't go back. He doesn't strike. I mean

这就是独裁体制的问题。选举的妙处在哪里？那就是他们把你赶下台，但没有人会杀了你。没有人会夺走你的银行账户。这确实消除了其中的很多……呃，那种让人捏把汗的紧张时刻。在俄罗斯，在斯大林时期，在他忙着枪毙所有人的时候，他死了，呃，最终由赫鲁晓夫作为他的继任者。那个继任世代决定，他们想……呃，做到让你在离任时不会被杀掉，而是把你送到你的小达恰，也就是你在俄罗斯的避暑别墅。呃，普京的问题就在于此，这也是很多独裁者面临的问题：对他们中的许多人来说，根本没有能保住性命的退路。对吧？当普京……呃，当他被换下台时会发生什么？如果他只是自然死亡，好吧，那发生在我们所有人身上；但他已经把局面布置成除了一种非常丑陋的结局之外，根本没有任何退休方案。

英文原文

>> this is the problem with dictatorships. What's wonderful about elections? So, they throw you out of office, but no one kills you. No one takes your bank accounts away. It really takes a lot of the uh uh the white knuckle event out of it. And in Russia, Andre Stalin, when he's busy shooting everybody, he dies and uh eventually you get Krushchoff as his successor. that successor generation decided they wanted to uh make it so you didn't get killed when you left office that they send you to your little dachcha or that's your summer house in Russia. Uh Putin's problem is this is the problem with dictators for many of them there's no offramp where they're alive right what happens to Putin when he uh he gets swapped out of power if he just dies naturally okay then that happens to all of us but he's arranged it so there is no retirement plan except something really ugly

为什么？怎么会？

英文原文

>> why how

一个独裁者……嗯，在俄罗斯你到底要怎么取代普京？

英文原文

>> a dictator well how would you ever replace Putin in Russia

他难道不能直接退位，去他的豪宅放松消遣吗？

英文原文

>> couldn't he just step down and go off to his mansion and chill out

大概不行，因为……呃，在他身边的亲信圈子里会有人来杀了他。他就是掌控全局的整个保护伞保护层。

英文原文

>> probably not because uh there will people who will come kill him on his immediate entourage. He's the whole protection racket that's running stuff.

他有可能被俄罗斯人民推翻吗？

英文原文

>> Is it possible for him to be overthrown by the Russian people?

有可能，

英文原文

>> Yeah,

是有可能，因为看起来他对局面的控制是如此紧密……

英文原文

>> it is possible because it just seems like he's got such a tight grip on

哦，嗯，独裁体制的特点就是这样：在崩塌的那一天到来之前，它们似乎都是永恒的，而一旦崩塌，那就是无法预测的。

英文原文

>> Oh, well, that's the thing about dictatorships is they seem eternal until the day they shatter and then it's impossible to predict.

它们是如何崩塌的？

英文原文

>> How do they shatter?

哦，罗曼诺夫王朝。尼古拉二世就像“恶人弗拉德”一样，呃，决定卷入一场他们本不必打的消遣性战争，那就是1904至1905年的日俄战争。至于俄罗斯——关于俄罗斯整件事就是这样——为什么俄罗斯需要更多领土？它是这个星球上面积最大的国家，对吧？他们拥有海量的资源，他们的问题在于没有任何经济模式来开发它，因为他们拒绝遵循有规则的规范，以便人们能够开创事业，就像你这样的年轻人可以开创一个……

英文原文

>> Oh, the Romanov dynasty. Nicholas II like Vlad the Bad uh decided to get into a recreational war they didn't have to which is the RussoJapanese war of 1904 1905 and why Russia this is the whole thing about Russia why does Russia need more territory it is the largest country on the planet right they have tons of resources their problem is they have no economic model to develop it because they refuse to go by the norms of having rules so people can start businesses like a young person like you who can start a

然后当你开始做得不错时，你可以真正保住你的钱。在俄罗斯发生的不是这样。你会被敲诈勒索。所以尼古拉二世打了那场战争，他打输了。但随之而来还有另一个概念：机会成本。所以，如果你把你所有的钱都花在打那场战争上，你有什么事没做成？你没有在俄罗斯西部这里修建铁路系统。

英文原文

And then when you start doing well, you can actually keep your money. That's not what happens in Russia. You'll get shaken down. So Nicholas second does that war, he loses it. But then there's another concept, opportunity cost. So if you spend all of your money fighting that war, what are you not doing? You're not building a railway system here in the western part of Russia.

因此到了第一次世界大战，尼古拉无法很好地调动他的军队。他没有任何通道让他的盟友为他提供补给，因为俄罗斯的……这就是俄罗斯的处境。呃，通过海路运送物资的主要港口就在这里，波罗的海，或者这里，黑海。而在战时那些地方都会关闭，对吧？没有任何东西可以通过它们。因此，如果尼古拉没有在这里干这种蠢事而是修建了铁路，他可能会有一个不同的结局。那他为什么会被推翻呢？因为圣彼得堡发生了面包骚乱。那是当时的首都。好吧，有更好的铁路，你就能更好地把面包运过去。此外，你也可能会从其他地方获得粮食援助。呃，这些机会成本是巨大的。现在，“恶人弗拉德”在这里施展了他的手段。谁在支持他们？嗯，中国正在为他提供目前至关重要的东西。

英文原文

So come World War I, Nicholas can't deploy his troops very well. He's got no way in for his allies to supply him because Russia's this is Russia's stuff. Uh main ports for getting things by sea are here, the Baltic or here, the Black Sea. Well, those things shut down in wartime, right? That nothing goes through them. So, if Nicholas hadn't done his dumbassery here and built railways, he might have had a different outcome. And why does he get overthrown? Because there are food riots in St. Petersburg. That was the capital in those days. Okay, better railways. you would have delivered the bread better. Also, you might have gotten food aid from other places. Uh these opportunity costs are huge. Now, Vlad the Bad has done his magic here. Who's supporting them? Well, China is providing what's vital for him right now.

他们为什么要支持弗拉基米尔·普京？为什么？

英文原文

>> Why are they supporting Vladimir Putin? Why?

为什么不呢？哦，天哪。

英文原文

>> Why not? Oh, God.

他们为什么不直接置身事外？

英文原文

>> Why don't they just stay out of it?

从他们的角度来看，他们希望美国彻底不管任何人的事。而且他们也并不特别喜欢俄罗斯。所以如果俄罗斯要在这里削弱它自己，呃，中国将从中受益。中国需要他们的资源。我的研究生……呃，毕业论文写的就是俄中边界历史，俄罗斯从中国势力范围夺走的领土比密西西比河以东的整个美国还要大。所有这些地方曾经都是……呃，中国势力范围的一部分。你想跟我说中国人不记得那件事吗？

英文原文

>> From their point of view, they want the United States just out of everyone's business. And they also don't particularly like Russia either. So if Russia's going to go weaken itself here, uh, China will benefit from this. Chinese needs their resources. My graduate uh dissertation was a history of the Russo-Chinese border and Russia took territory from the Chinese sphere of influence greater than all of US east of Mississippi. It's all of this stuff that was uh part of the Chinese sphere of influence. You want to tell me the Chinese don't remember that?

所以，中国正在向俄罗斯提供他们需要的资源。

英文原文

>> So, China are supplying Russia with resources they need.

是的。用来制造导弹之类的东西。

英文原文

>> Yeah. To make missiles and things.

他们为此向他们收钱。当然，

英文原文

>> They're charging them for that. Of course,

他们从中赚钱，但他们也在削弱俄罗斯。俄罗斯。

英文原文

>> they're making money from it, but they're also weakening Russia. Russia.

是的。因为

英文原文

>> Yeah. Because

俄罗斯的地缘困局与核武疑问

他们……俄罗斯的能源等领域一直在遭受制裁。因此，中国正以大幅压低的价格获取所有这些物资，并且还在极力杀价。过去，俄罗斯人拥有所有这些核武器和其他手段，来威慑中国人，防止对方摆出强硬姿态。然而弗拉基米尔·普京把这一切全都糟蹋了。他连乌克兰都对付不了，更别提这个了。所以，他们犯下了极其关键的巨大错误。他们陷入了真正的困境。而且他们甚至不生孩子了。因此，长期的影响对他们来说正变得越来越糟糕。

英文原文

they're

Russia

has

been

sanctioned

its

energy

and

other

things.

So,

China

getting

all

these

things

much

reduced

prices

and

they're

driving

hard

bargain.

And

the

Russians

the

past

had

all

these

nuclear

weapons

and

other

things

dissuade

the

Chinese

from

playing

Mr.

Tough

Guy.

Except

Vladimir

Putin

has

squandered

all

that.

can't

even

deal

with

Ukraine,

let

alone

this.

So,

they've

done

massive

pivotal

error.

They're

real

trouble.

And

then

they're

not

even

have

they're

not

having

kids.

And

so,

the

long-term

effects

are

getting

better

and

worse

and

worse

from

them.

俄罗斯拥有足以夷平乌克兰的导弹，不是吗？具体细节我并不了解。呃，但是……

英文原文

>> Russia

have

the

missiles

just

flatten

Ukraine,

don't

they?

don't

know

the

details.

but

比如他们拥有核武器。

英文原文

>> they

have

nuclear

weapons.

是的，他们确实有。确实有。嗯，这超出了我的专业领域。而且，嗯，为了拥有它们，你必须维护它们。而俄罗斯人是十足的骗子。谁知道呢？谁知道呢？我的理解是，呃，印度和中国已经告诉俄罗斯，如果他们那样做，那将是绝对不可逾越的红线。但当人们被逼入绝境时，呃，其他人就对他们没有任何影响力了，当他们完全走投无路的时候。所以，我不知道答案。

英文原文

>> Yeah,

they

do.

They

do.

this

beyond

expertise.

And

order

have

them,

you

have

maintain

them.

And

the

Russians

are

consumate

liars.

Who

knows?

Who

knows?

understanding

that

India

and

China

have

told

Russia

that

would

massive

they

that.

But

when

people

get

cornered

then

others

have

influence

over

them.

and

when

they're

totally

cornered.

So,

don't

know

the

answer.

所以，从与泽连斯基的交流听来，他不会向普京退让一寸乌克兰土地……

英文原文

>> So,

sounds

from

speaking

Zalinski,

will

not

yield

inch

Ukraine

给普京。

英文原文

>> to

Putin.

而听起来普京也必须以某种形式取得看似胜利的结果收场，为了他的人民、为了他的权力，也确实是为了向他接壤的其他某些国家以及向北约传递信息，你懂的。我想……

英文原文

>> And

sounds

Putin

has

walk

away

looking

got

victory

sorts

for

his

people

and

for

his

power

and

really

for

the

message,

you

know,

some

these

other

他接壤的那些人以及北约。我想……

英文原文

>> people

that

sits

border

with

and

NATO.

guess

无限战争的代价与欧洲国家安全

在我看来，这两件事不可能同时成立。

不，那就是发动无限战争的问题所在。呃，第二次世界大战，呃，是的，盟国赢了，但付出了惨绝人寰的代价，对吧？数千万俄罗斯人丧生，数百万其他人丧生。普遍的说法是多少来着？那场灾难中有5500万人丧生。你想再来一次吗？说真的，这些无限战争是丑陋的。这不是解决问题的方式。把你的外交官和律师派往国际机构要好得多。当然，达成的协议并不完全符合你当初的期许，但如果能有你们这个年纪的人去开办企业，有法律保障他们能够创业，而不是试图去掠夺每个人的东西，财富就会成倍增长。那才是做事的方法。所以是的，乌克兰当然不会放弃，而我们应该支持乌克兰，因为他们是在为我们所有人承担重负。这就是给你那位朋友的回答。你想上前线打仗吗？不想。那就帮助他们。

在当今世界，道德至关重要。它很重要。诚实很重要。文明礼貌很重要。所有这些都很重要。哦，我认为还有另一件重要的事情。政府的基本职责是什么？首要的事情是：保卫你的国家安全，这是第一位的；还有保卫你们的繁荣，努力去增进你们的繁荣，这是第二位的。所以对你那位朋友而言，什么才能保卫英国的国家安全？这必将涉及欧洲，因为如果英国孤立无援，没有西欧同样保持健康发展，它也不会好过。

英文原文

>> the

two

things

can't

true

view.

No,

that's

the

problem

with

unleashing

unlimited

wars.

World

War

II,

yes,

the

allies

won,

but

obs

obscene

cost,

right?

Tens

millions

Russians

died.

Millions

others

died.

What

supposed

be?

million

people

died

that

thing.

You

want

that

over

again?

Really,

these

unlimited

wars

are

ugly.

not

the

way

handle

things.

far

better

deploy

your

diplomats

and

lawyers

international

institutions.

Sure,

the

deal

isn't

perfect

for

what

you

wish

you

had

gotten,

but

the

wealth

will

compound

you

have

people

your

age

start

their

businesses,

have

laws

that

allow

them

instead

trying

poach

everyone's

stuff.

That

the

way

things.

yeah,

course

Ukraine

won't

give

and

should

support

Ukraine

because

they're

doing

the

heavy

lifting

for

all

us.

That's

the

answer

your

friend.

You

want

fighting

the

front

lines?

No.

help

them.

Now

morals

matter

this

world.

They

matter.

Honesty

matters.

Civility

matters.

All

these

things

matter.

Oh,

and

there's

another

piece

think

matters.

What

governments

do?

Primary

things.

Protect

your

national

security.

That's

number

one.

And

protect

your

prosperity.

Try

increase

your

prosperity.

Those

are

two.

for

your

friend,

what

going

protect

British

national

security?

And

that

will

involve

Europe

because

Britain's

alone,

it's

not

going

well

without

Western

Europe

being

healthy

well.

欧洲当前的困境与战后机构重建

这是否在某种程度上赶上了一个不幸的时刻？因为欧洲目前的经济状况并不是最好的，而且正在发生大量的内部冲突。我是说，我昨天在法国，当我离开酒店时，街头都在起火。

英文原文

has

this

somewhat

fallen

unfortunate

time

because

Europe

not

doing

the

best

economically

the

moment

and

there

are

lots

sort

internal

conflicts

taking

place.

mean,

was

France

yesterday

and

left

hotel,

the

streets

are

fire.

到了夜间，有戴着头套的人冲进所有商店砸得粉碎。而且，嗯，你知道，然后我想到英国，你知道，也许处境不会更糟，但实际上我是说，就在我出来跟你交谈之前，我读到了《星期日泰晤士报》的一则头条新闻，这是今天报纸上的：“英国正在破产。这只是时间问题。面对3万亿的债务和每年1100亿的利息，新任财政大臣几乎没有回旋余地”，出自杰西卡·库克（Jessica Cook）。这种情绪目前在欧洲相当普遍。所以当你考虑把钱花在另一个国家时，呃，你知道，这可能就是为什么有很多人持反对意见。

英文原文

>> At

night

time,

there's

balaclava

people

running

into

all

the

shops

and

smashing

them

pieces.

And

you

know,

then

think

about

the

UK,

you

know,

maybe

not

worse

position,

but

actually

mean,

read

just

before

came

out

here

speak

you,

read

headline

from

the

Sunday

Times

that

reads,

this

today's

newspaper,

Britain

going

broke.

It's

just

matter

when.

With

three

trillion

debt

and

interest

110

billion

year,

the

new

chancellor

has

little

room

maneuver

from

Jessica

Cook.

This

the

sentiment

that

quite

unprevent

the

moment

Europe.

when

you

think

about

spending

money

another

nation,

you

know,

this

probably

why

there

are

lot

people

that

are

against

it.

欧洲感觉很软弱。

英文原文

>> Europe

feels

weak.

是的。给你们这一代人的故事是这样的，因为我将随着年岁渐长离开这个烂摊子，但你们必须承受它。想一想二战结束时的那一代人。欧洲被夷为平地。战后所有人都负债累累。而那一代人在10年之内建立了制度架构，维系了欧洲接下来的三代和平。那是相当了不起的成就。现在的情况是历史发展得非常快。我的意思是，这就像僵局被打破了，而我们不知道它会走向何方。这非常可怕。但另一方面，在水泥再次凝固之前，这也是一个巨大的机遇，让人们能够行动起来。那句话怎么说的来着？“疾风知劲草”，行动起来，

英文原文

>> Yeah.

And

here's

the

story

for

your

generation

because

I'm

going

age

out

this

mess,

but

you're

going

have

live

with

it.

Think

about

the

generation

that's

the

end

World

War

II.

Europe's

leveled.

Everyone's

indebted

right

after

that

war.

And

that

generation

within

years

had

set

the

institutional

architecture

that

held

the

peace

Europe

for

the

three

generations.

That

quite

achievement.

And

what's

going

now

history's

moving

really

fast.

mean,

it's

just

it's

the

log

jam's

busted

and

don't

know

which

way

it's

going

go.

And

it's

tremendously

frightening.

But

the

other

hand,

tremendous

opportunity

before

the

concrete

sets

again

for

people

get

moving.

What

it?

When

the

going

gets

tough,

the

tough

get

going.

get

going

去取得好成果，

英文原文

>> and

well

美国税法、贫富差距与买方垄断

去致力于下一套制度的建设，以帮助提升欧洲一直不太理想、亟需改善的增长率。其中一部分可能与简化监管有关，但那超出了我的理解能力。

美国人认为他们所有的问题都出在跨越边境的移民身上，对吧？我完全赞成合法移民。为什么要有……你知道，人们应该遵守规则等等。在驱逐他们时不必采取残忍的手段，完全可以人道地处理。嗯，无缘无故的刻薄，我并不认同。但是，嗯，所以人们，嗯，就像在欧洲一样，认识到了存在这样一个问题：对于年轻人来说，出头太难了。这是怎么回事？伴随着这种觉得毫无机会、彻底无望的感觉。好吧，这可能是对问题的正确识别。但在美国，我怀疑答案并不是移民。它很可能出在我们的税法上。

税法决定了资金流向哪一方。正是它决定了资金以何种方式用于支出。在美国，少数人在过去的15年里确确实实成为了亿万富翁。没有税法是做不到这一点的。而且还有另一部分，在美国你们都知道垄断（monopoly），对吧？你拥有某个特定行业的全部份额，然后你就可以为你出售的商品统一定价。但还有买方垄断（monopsony），这意味着你雇用了很大比例的劳动力，或者在某个特定地区具有支配地位。你来决定工资。

好吧，我们美国的工资出现了问题，呃，它们一直被压低。呃，人们每周工作40个小时甚至更多，却依然无法维持收支平衡。这是怎么回事？他们的报酬过低，然后资金就源源不断地汇入了少数家族的钱袋。我认为在美国显然有大约一千个家族拥有十亿美元或以上的资产。实际上并没有多少人。

英文原文

>> and

work

the

set

institutions

that

will

help

growth

rates

Europe

that

have

not

been

great

that

need

better.

Probably

part

that

has

with

streamlining

regulations

and

then

that's

beyond

capabilities

understanding.

Americans

think

all

their

problems

are

about

immigrants

coming

across

the

border,

right?

And

I'm

all

for

having

legal

immigration.

Why

would

you

have,

you

know,

people

should

have

rules,

etc.

You

don't

have

cruel

how

you

expel

them.

You

can

that

humanely.

Um,

being

gratuitously

mean,

don't

see

it.

But,

um,

people

um,

Europe

identified

that

there's

this

problem

that

for

the

young,

it's

just

hard

make

it.

What's

going

here?

And

this

feeling

there

are

opportunities

and

it's

just

hopeless.

Okay,

that's

probably

correct

identification

problem.

But

the

United

States,

suspect

the

answer

not

immigrants.

It's

probably

our

tax

code.

tax

code

what

sends

money

one

way

the

other.

It's

what's

going

make

money

available

for

spending

things

one

way

the

other.

the

United

States,

you've

got

handful

people

who've

become

billionaires

really

literally

over

the

last

years.

Can't

that

without

the

tax

code.

And

then

there's

know

another

piece

the

United

States

you

know

about

monopolies,

right?

You

own

all

particular

industry

and

then

you

can

set

prices

what

you

sell

stuff

at.

But

then

there's

monopsin

which

means

you

hire

such

large

percentage

the

workforce

what

particular

area

you're

at.

You

dictate

wages.

Well,

got

problems

with

wages

the

United

States

that

they've

been

driven

downwards.

and

people

are

working

40hour

weeks

and

than

that

and

they

can't

make

ends

meet.

What's

going

here?

They're

being

underpaid

and

then

the

money

just

being

funneled

into

handful

families

coffers.

think

the

United

States

there

apparently

thousand

families

that

are

worth

billion

better.

It's

not

actually

very

many

people

因为现在的世界不同了，存在某种数字资产，至少是可以通过数字方式转移的资产。嗯，将税法作为解决不平等的工具是否变得更加困难了？

英文原文

>> because

the

world

different

now

and

there's

sort

digital

assets

well

least

assets

that

you

can

move

digitally.

harder

use

the

tax

code

tool

for

fixing

inequality?

我是说，你得去咨询美国的税务专家，但允许人们变得极其富有的美国税法……

英文原文

>> I

mean

you'd

have

talk

tax

specialists

but

the

tax

code

允许人们变得极其富有是一个错误。嗯，这就是美国所缺失的一档播客：让某人真正去通读税法并把它逐条剖析开来，然后谈论这一切与人的关联。其中包含很多实质内容，但还没有人这么做，我想可能是因为读起来太枯燥了。实际上我认为里面有很多干货。

英文原文

>> that

allows

people

become

hugely

wealthy

error.

Well,

this

where

there's

missing

podcast

the

United

States,

which

would

someone

actually

reading

the

tax

code

and

breaking

it,

literally

breaking

down

into

pieces

and

then

talking

the

human

connection

all.

And

there's

lot

there

there,

but

hasn't

been

guess

would

too

boring

read

it.

think

actually

there's

lot

there.

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英文原文

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你做好准备。它还会和你一起加入会议。它在会议中负责记笔记，这样你就不需要自己记了，而且它还会把记下的这些笔记转换成准确的自动草拟 CRM 更新。已经有 100,000 家公司使用它来开展销售业务了。你可以在 piperive.com/ceo 注册，在那里你将获得独家的 30 天免费试用，而不是通常的 14 天。绝对不需要信用卡。只需前往 pipedive.com/ce 即可开始。如果你从事销售工作并且管理着一个销售团队，我认为你不会后悔的。

英文原文

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英文原文

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中期选举与政治规范

中期选举快到了。

英文原文

The midterms are coming up.

确实是。

英文原文

>> They are.

对那些不知道中期选举是什么的人来说——可能世界上大多数人都是如此。嗯。中期选举有什么意义，它到底是什么？

英文原文

>> For people that don't know what the midterms are, which is probably most of the world. Mhm. What is the significance of the midterms and what is it?

嗯，你要选举一定比例的美国参议院议员，以及众议院的全部议员。众议院每届任期是两年，参议员是六年，而且参议院席位是交错改选的，对吧？所以你选的是其中的一部分，然后你还要选州长。而且——

英文原文

>> Well, you're um electing a percentage uh of the US Senate and all of the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives each term is two years, senators are six years, and the Senate seats are staggered, right? So, you're you're doing a selection of them and then you're doing uh governors as well. And

所以，让我复述一下。告诉我我理解得对不对。基本上在中期选举中，眼下特朗普拥有权力，因为他控制了众议院和参议院。是的。

英文原文

>> so, let me repeat this back to you. Tell me if I've got it right. So essentially in the midterms right now Trump has power because he controls the House and the Senate. Yep.

就共和党人多于民主党人而言，还有最高法院——

英文原文

>> In terms of there's more Republicans than Democrat Supreme Court

还有最高法院。但在中期选举中，他很有可能会失去参议院。

英文原文

>> and the Supreme Court. Um but in the midterms it's very likely that he will lose the Senate.

这个我不知道。有很多猜测表明民调最初是——他很可能会失去众议院，也许还有参议院。现在看起来两院都可能失去。但话又说回来，如果他要派 ICE 特工去所有投票站，然后人们把投票机拿走——

英文原文

>> That I don't know. There's much speculation suggest the polls were were originally he might well lose the House, maybe the Senate. Now it looks like both. But then um if he's going to be sending ICE agents to all the polling stations and uh and then people are going to walk away with the voting machines

而且他还给投票给共和党人的人提供 5,000 美元。

英文原文

>> and he's offering people $5,000 if they vote for Republicans.

嗯，这叫做规范的终结。如果美国人——这对美国来说将是一场全国性的智商测试，取决于他们如何投票，因为每次他们去加油站加油，他们都知道为什么物价上涨了。令人难过的是，人们常常认同政党。政党来了又去。今天的共和党完全不是艾森豪威尔或罗纳德·里根时期的那个党了。这是一个不同的党。一切都是围绕着一个人转。你应该围绕着你的目标来认同。我建议的是保护国家安全、促进繁荣。你可以看看这场战争，然后发现它把这两者都给毁了。无论你喜欢这个人还是不喜欢，这都是他的错。而且这也是在每一个节点上为他提供支持的那个政党的错。还有皮特·海格塞斯（Pete Hgsathth），他是一名少校，对吧，这不是——这是一个还可以的军衔，但不足以掌管五角大楼。共和党批准了他。做出那样的事情是极其玩忽职守的行为。他们本来可以要求换成另一个马蒂斯将军，我们今天可能就不会陷在伊朗了。如果特朗普输了或者共和党输掉了中期选举，基本上意味着他们将不得不与民主党进行大量合作，因为——

英文原文

>> Well, this is called the end of the norms. And if Americans it's you're it's going to be a national IQ test for the United States and on how they vote because every time they go to the pump, they know why their prices have gone up. What's sad is people um often identify with party. Parties come and go. The party the rep Republican party today isn't remotely what it was with Eisenhower or Ronald Reagan. It's a different party. It's all about one guy. And you should identify around what your goals are. And I recommend protect national security, promote prosperity. You can look at this war and go it's wrecked both. And whether you like the guy or don't, it's his fault. And it's the fault of the party that has enabled him at every point. And Pete Hgsathth, who's a major, right, is it's not it's an okay rank, but not to run the Pentagon. The Republican party confirmed him. It was an act of supreme dereliction of duty of doing that. They could have demanded another general mattis and we might not be in Iran today. And if Trump loses or the Republicans lose the midterms, essentially what it means is they are going to have to cooperate a lot with the Democrats because

他们不会合作的。他们已经明确表示不会与民主党合作。

英文原文

>> they're not going to cooperate. They've made clear they're not cooperating with Democrats.

但要让法案通过，

英文原文

>> But to get things passed,

那就得是两党合作。他们拒绝跨党派合作。那个老共和党。是的。

英文原文

>> that would be bipartisan. They've rejected being bipartisan. The the old Republican party. Yeah.

但那他们怎么让事情通过呢？

英文原文

>> But how do they get things passed then?

他们不会通过的。

英文原文

>> They won't.

但是特朗普有行政权力，所以他仍然可以签署行政命令。

英文原文

>> But Trump has executive power, so he can still sign executive orders.

是的。他而且——这也是关于规范的另一件事。他就是直接把事情做了，改变既成事实。如果后来证明这是违法的，他反正已经把事情做完了，对吧？就像他在华盛顿在意的那个高尔夫球场，他把所有的古树都砍光了。我的意思是，想象一下，那叫什么来着？伦敦的里士满公园（Richmond Park）。想象一下有人跑进去，直接把所有 800 年树龄的老树全推平了。这是无法挽回的。他就是这么——这就是他做事的方式。

英文原文

>> Yeah. And he and um uh this is another um thing about Norms. He just does things and changes facts on the ground. If it later turns out to be illegal, he's already done the thing, right? Like there's this golf course in uh in that he cares about in Washington, he's cut down all the legacy trees. I mean, imagine what is it? Richmond Park in London. Imagine someone goes in there and just levels all the 800y old trees. There's no walking that back. That's how it that's what he does.

民主核心与历史教训

西方有敌人吗？如果有，敌人是谁？因为我们常常认为，哦，是中国；哦，是俄罗斯；哦——

英文原文

Does the West have an enemy? And if so, who is the enemy? Because we often think, oh, it's China. Oh, it's Russia. Oh,

是的。是的。是的。那是——好吧，让我们抛开西方不谈。我们来谈谈民主核心。

英文原文

>> yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It is um the Well, let's forget about the West. Let's talk about democratic core.

好吧。什么是民主核心？

英文原文

>> Okay. What's democratic core?

在我的书里，民主核心指的是民主国家。所以它是西方的，横跨中欧，会包括日本、韩国、台湾、新西兰、澳大利亚，绝对还有加拿大、美国。不，我的意思是，我们扬言要入侵格陵兰岛。当你做出那种事时，这就不能算作民主核心了。你不——我的意思是，我们威胁要把加拿大变成我们的第 51 个州。到底谁会干这种事？

英文原文

>> The democratic core in my books uh are the democracies. And so it's western, it's through central Europe, it would be uh Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, uh definitely Canada, the United States. Uh no, I mean, we're threatening to invade Greenland. That does not make you the Democratic core when you do that. You don't I mean, we're threatening to make Canada our 51st state. Who the hell does that?

你认为特朗普为什么要这么说？

英文原文

Why do you think Trump is saying that?

我不知道。我又不是精神病学家。

英文原文

>> I have no idea. I'm not a psychiatrist.

可是，你关注了他最近的演讲。你能理解吗？

英文原文

Well, you follow his recent speeches. Can you follow them?

呃，我问你是因为你研究过独裁者。

英文原文

>> Well, I'm asking you because you've studied dictators.

研究过衰老的自恋狂。比如说小小的台湾与中国之间的问题。这就好像，为什么——看看台湾。它大概只有中国大陆的 1/250 大小。我是说，得了吧。那是一个极其微小的地方。中国为什么在乎呢？那里就是坐着一群台湾人。你为什么要介意？这是因为，它表明你可以在一个——中国占压倒多数的族群是汉族，而他们那些相当种族主义的观点曾经认为，民主与汉族是互不相容的。嗯，台湾人已经证明了那是无稽之谈。而对于这些独裁者来说，这就好比，为什么不举行一场公平的选举呢，伙计们？因为他们选不上。这就是原因，如果有公平的选举，习近平就不会再是中国的领导人，弗拉基米尔·普京也不会是俄罗斯的领导人，对吧？他们把这视作灭顶之灾。另一方面，究竟是哪种社会能创造巨额财富？是民主国家。为什么？因为我们彼此容忍。我们互相提供法律保护。我们允许人们开创自己的事业，并保留他们从这些事业中所赚取成果。而其他那些人，如果你想想中国是何时富裕起来的，正是当它加入基于海洋规则的秩序并遵守规则的时候。现在，它还没有做到——它可以竞相积累财富，但如果它要发动一些战争，那就全完了。

英文原文

>> Studied uh scenile narcissists. The problem with say little Taiwan and China. It's like why would Look at Taiwan. It's like 1250th the size of China. I mean, give me a break. It's a little teeny tiny place. Why does China give a damn? They're a bunch of Taiwanese sitting there. Why would you care? It's because it's showing that you can have a vibrant democracy in a h the propoundonderant ethnic group of China is the Han and their um rather racist ideas were that well the democracy is not and the Han are mutually exclusive. Well, the Taiwanese have proven that that's nonsense. And for these dictators, it's like why not hold a fair election, boys? Because they wouldn't be elected. That's why if there were fair elections, Xiinping would no more be the head of China, nor would Vladimir Putin be the head of Russia, right? And they regard that as the existential threat. On the other hand, what is it the sorts of societies that produce massive wealth? The democracies. Why? Because we tolerate each other. We give each other legal protections. We allow people to start their businesses and keep the fruits of their what they make from these businesses. Whereas these other folks, if you think about when China became wealthy, it's when it joined the maritime rules-based order and when it was following the rules. Now, it hasn't done it yet. It can compete compounding wealth, but not if it's going to be launching some wars. That'll be it.

中国似乎远离战争。你指的和越南吗？那是很久以前了，但是——中国是在接连不断的战争中建立起来的。基本上，清朝在 1911、1912 年灭亡，然后就进入了所谓的军阀时期，各省的地方领袖彼此大打出手，最终在 1927 年左右演变成一场国共两党的双边内战。所有这些都在背景中发生，然后美国凭其无限的智慧，首批“美国优先”者在 1930 年为了应对大萧条，决定征收巨额关税。经济学家们找到胡佛总统说：“伙计，别这么做，因为其他所有人都会采取同样的报复手段。”但他还是这么做了。然后我们陷入了一场大规模的贸易战，对吧？美国提高了关税。你觉得其他人会怎么做？也提高他们的关税？然后这就拖垮了全球经济。它加剧了大萧条。所以依赖贸易的日本这时就会想：现在怎么办，我们一直与这些人合作，而现在他们把我们切断了。于是他们在那时认定，唯一的解决办法就是我们需要一个足够庞大的帝国，这样我们才能自给自足。所以

英文原文

>> China seems to stay out of wars. What do you mean with Vietnam? It's been a while, but um uh China is created over a succession of wars. Basically, theQing dynasty falls in 1911, 1912, and then you have what's called the warlord period where all the different your provincial leaders are all duking it out with each other and eventually that coaleses into a bilateral communist nationalist fight uh circa 1927. So all that's going on in the background and then you have United States in its infinite wisdom, the first America firsters in 1930 in response to the Great Depression decide they're going to put huge tariffs up. And the economists come to President Hoover and say, "Buddy, don't do it because everyone else is going to respond in kind." And he does it anyway. And then we're into a massive trade war, right? America puts up tariffs. What do you suppose everyone's going to do? Put up their tariffs? And then you're tanking economies globally. It deepens the Great Depression. So here's trade dependent Japan going now what we always cooperated with these people and now they've shut us off. So they decide in those days the only solution is we need an empire large enough so that we can become self-sufficient. So

他们在1931年进军满洲。所以日本人后来袭击珍珠港的原因，是因为美国在向中国提供援助，而日本人想让我们停止。于是他们袭击了珍珠港——在当时夏威夷还不是一个州，直到59年才成为州，看起来就像是美国的殖民地。他们以为我们会变聪明并就此放弃。但没有，我们加倍反击。我们冲着日本去了。所以想想看，那场把中国撕得粉碎的浩大战争，从1911年、1912年刚过就开始，一直持续到1945年。然后是中国内战，直到1949年才结束。

英文原文

they move into Manuria in 1931. So the reason why the Japanese attack Pearl Harbor later on is because the United States is sending aid to China and the Japanese want us to stop. So they attack Pearl Harbor, which in those days Hawaii is not a state, doesn't become a state until 59. Looks like it's a US colony. And they thought we'd wise up and quit. But no, we double down. We come after Japan. So think about it. Massive warfare that's tearing China apart starting right after 1911, 1912, continuing all the way through 1945. Then you have the Chinese Civil War that does not end until 1949.

然后你还有毛的所有政治运动，反右……哦，你还有朝鲜战争。那是另一场，从50年到53年。所以那是另一场战争。然后邓小平对越南狠狠出手，代价高昂，而且短暂短促。在此之前，还有62年与印度的边境战争，中国重创了印度，把印度变成了永久的敌人，那是一个错误。接着你还有反右运动、文化大革命，毛在其中掀起风浪以保住权力。哦，在那一切发生的同时，你还有大饥荒，那是他的大跃进造成的，他不断出口粮食，因为那是他获取零花钱的地方，而人们正在挨饿。所以在那之后，你以为中国人还想要更多战争吗，对吧？他们想远离这档子事歇一歇。但基本上，那些经历了所有战斗、可能懂得也许不想再经历那些的人，现在都去世了。

英文原文

And then you have all of Ma's political campaigns, anti-right. Well, you have oh, you have the Korean War. That's the other one from 50 to 53. So, that's another uh war. And Dang Xiao Ping does his number on Vietnam. And that's it's costly and it's it's short and quick. And before then there's the 62 border war with India where uh Chinese trounce India and turn India into a permanent enemy. That was a mistake. Then you have anti-right campaigns, cultural revolution where Mao is churning things so that he remains in power. Oh, and while all that's going on, you have the great famine which is created by his great leap forward, keeps exporting food because that's where he gets his pocket change and people are starving. So after that, you think the Chinese want any more wars, right? They're they want to chill out of this thing for a while. But basically, all those people who did all that fighting and might have a sense that maybe you don't want to do any more of that, they're all dead.

核时代的全球冲突风险

如果我们继续沿着目前的轨迹走下去，未来会是什么样子？

英文原文

>> If we continue on in the direction of travel we're on now, what does the future look like?

看起来就像是第二次世界大战。我是说，回到消极目标上，你必须阻止这些事情爆发，因为一旦爆发，看看伊朗。唐纳德·特朗普会愿意退让吗？不。他会想要表明自己不知怎么就算赢了。

英文原文

>> It looks like World War II. I mean, back to the negative objectives, you've got to prevent these things from breaking out because once they break out, look at Iran. Is Donald Trump going to want to back down? No. He's going to want to show that somehow he's won.

这是一张显示各国拥有多少枚核弹头的图表。当你说如果我们继续按这个轨迹发展，下一场可能就是第二次世界大战时，我的反驳是，但我们现在生活在一个核力量的世界里，这些玩家中任何一个一旦陷入严重局势，基本上就能消灭地球上的所有生命。

英文原文

>> This is a a chart showing how many nuclear warheads each country has. When you say that World War II could be next if we continue on this trajectory, my rebuttal is but we now live in a nuclearpowered world where where if any one of these players gets into a serious situation, they could basically wipe out life for everybody on planet Earth.

是的。但是——

英文原文

>> Yeah. But

那么这是否在某种程度上保证了我们的安全呢？

英文原文

>> so does this keep us safe to some degree?

不。

英文原文

>> No.

相互保证毁灭。普京已经把那个小东西颠倒了过来，当他威胁北约国家的时候。就在过去的几天里，他一直在侵犯领空，向领海派遣无人机。我想是保加利亚和罗马尼亚的领海，如果我说错了你可以纠正我，它们在那里被击落了。在某个时刻，你就进入了第五条的范畴。欧洲人不想这么做，因为这会是一场彻底的混乱。

英文原文

>> Mutually assured destruction. Putin has already uh taken that little thing and flipped it over when he um is threatening NATO countries. He has um been violating the airspace just in the last last few days sending drones into the territorial waters. I thought of Bulgarian Romania. You can correct me if I got that wrong and they were shot down there. At some point you're into article 5 territory. The Europeans don't want to do it because it it'll be an ever loving mess.

第五条意味着你们必须共同参战。

英文原文

>> Article five being Then you have to you all go to war together.

那是北约条约中关于……的一部分

英文原文

>> That's part of NATO's treaty to

防御。嗯，它的力量所在，就是只要记得二战的那一代人还活着，他们就非常小心不去触发它。而我们现在的这些人却不是这样。

英文原文

>> defend. Well, that was the strength of it is while the generation who remembered World War II while they lived, they were really careful not to trigger that. And that's not true of who we've got now.

如果普京入侵波兰，你认为第二次世界大战会开始吗？

英文原文

>> If Putin invaded Poland, do you think World War II would begin?

呃，是的。

英文原文

>> Uh, yeah.

你真这么认为？那第二次世界大战会是什么样子？因为我的记忆全都是……

英文原文

>> You think so? And what would World War II look look like? Cuz my memories are all

我不知道。但你可以在电脑上打开一个不错的程序，挑选你核武器的百万吨当量，然后把它放在你选择的城市上空，看看会有多少人死亡。这太骇人听闻了。这就是让像普京这样拥有阴暗人格的人统治国家的问题所在。他不在乎自己杀了多少人。当这样的人登上那些位置时，问题就来了，对吧？我们人类在辨识阴暗人格方面确实有困难，直到他们成了阿道夫·希特勒，大家才惊呼：“哦，糟糕。这里居然建了集中营。”我认为这是因为我们大多数人无法想象会想把那种可怕的痛苦施加给他人。但你能看到把他们推上权位带来的后果。那真是极其丑恶。特朗普不会从伊朗抽身。听起来普京也不会从乌克兰抽身。

英文原文

>> I have no idea. But you can get on a nice computer program and you can pick your megat tonnage of your nuclear weapon and then you can put it over a city of your choice and you can look at how many people die. It's obscene. And this is the problem with having these dark personalities running countries like Putin. He doesn't care how many people he kills. There's a problem when people like that reach those positions, right? We human beings have real trouble uh identifying dark personalities until they become Adolf Hitler and go, "Oh, whoops. There are concentration camps going on here." And I think it's cuz most of us can't imagine wanting to inflict that kind of obscene pain on other people. But you can see the consequences of putting them in power. It's really ugly. Trump's not going to back out of Iran. It It doesn't sound like Putin's going to back out of the Ukraine.

美国在下一届国会面临一个解决方案。弹劾并定罪他，然后直接说：“亲爱的，你退休了。”

英文原文

>> There is a solution for the United States is with the next Congress. Impeach and convict him and then just say, "Sweetheart, you're retired."

那就得由别人来接替他的位置。

英文原文

>> Someone else is going to have to then step into his shoes.

哎，是的。这就是关键失误带来的问题。无论谁来接手，都会在极度恶劣的条件下退出。而且我认为共和党人希望民主党人去那么做，因为那样你就可以去指责民主党人，说：“不，这是你们的战争。”事实上，对于战争，去找出挑起战争的人。那些才是你想去归咎的人，而不是去怪那些结束战争的人。

英文原文

>> Well, yeah. This is the problem with the pivotal error. Whoever will do it uh will back out on really bad terms. And I think the Republicans want the Democrats to do that because then you can go blame the Democrats and said, "No, it's your war." In fact, on wars, look for those who start them. Those are the ones you want to blame, not for those who end them.

对泽连斯基与大国力量的反思

你认为历史会怎样记住泽连斯基？

英文原文

>> How do you think history's going to remember Zillinsky?

他是名垂青史的英雄。哦，他是一位……你见识过一位伟大的政治家。这样的人极少。他是其中之一。是的。想想他。他本来可以离开乌克兰的，对吧？

英文原文

>> He's a hero for all time. Oh, he's he's you met a great statesman. There are very few of them. He's one of them. Yeah. Think of him. He could have left Ukraine, right?

他告诉我拜登曾给他打电话并表示可以载他撤离。

英文原文

>> He told me Biden called him and offered him a ride.

是的。那句名言是怎么说的，“我不需要搭车，我想要……”，是什么来着？

英文原文

>> Yeah. What was the famous I don't want a ride. I want What is

“我想要弹药。”

英文原文

>> I want ammunition.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yeah.

他也是一个非常善于沟通的人，我无法相信我们竟然没有在支持他。这是你能想象的最明确无误的侵略战争之一。再加上俄罗斯人对待民众的那种残暴。你不得不问自己，做出这种事情的都是些什么人，他们肯定有些不正常。你绝对不希望他们靠近欧洲其他地方。我明白。这真的很吓人，但之所以吓人正是因为这些人——

英文原文

>> He's also um a a man who can really communicate and I cannot believe that we're not supporting him. It is the most one of the most clear-cut wars of aggression you can possibly imagine. And then the brutality with which the Russians are treating people. And you got to ask yourself, who are these people doing these sorts of things, there's something wrong with them. And you don't want them anywhere near the rest of Europe. And I get it. Um it's really scary, but it's scary because of these people,

俄罗斯人。

英文原文

>> the Russians.

是的。你需要让乌克兰彻底站稳脚跟，让俄罗斯停止向所有人空投弹药，并由卡尼和他的朋友们正在积极组织的中等强国给他们一次大规模的强制暂停，即便在我们交谈的此刻他们也在忙着组织。在过去的几年里他们做了很多工作，而且他们还会做更多。

英文原文

>> Yeah. You need to uh get Ukraine totally on its feet and Russia to cease uh dropping uh ordinance on everybody and give them a massive time out from the middle powers that Carne and friends are busy organizing even as we speak. They've done a lot of work in the last few years and they'll do more.

你认为世界正在远离美国吗？我是说，欧洲还有……

英文原文

>> Do you think the world is pulling away from the United States? I mean, Europe and

他们在逃离。美国抓捕了马杜罗老兄。那其他人都在做什么？当你遭遇这种心脏病发作般的震惊，比如美国可以直接把你的领导人带走，你会怎么做？你会选择与中国制衡，作为没那么疯狂的选择。这就是美国想要宣称这里是美国专属领地的结果。我们所做的，就是确保了这些人将会变得极其欢迎对方。

英文原文

>> they're fleeing. So the United States takes good old Maduro. So what's everyone else doing? Well, when you have a heart attack like the United States can just take your leader away, what would you do? You're going to counterbalance with China as the less lunatic option. So here's the United States wanting to proclaim this a US preserve. Well, what we've done is guaranteed that uh these folks are going to be incredibly welcoming.

这难道不是一种真正的力量悖论吗？一旦你动用它，在某种奇怪的方式下你就几乎失去了它？嗯——

英文原文

>> Isn't that a real paradox of strength that the minute you use it, you kind of lose it in a weird way almost? Well,

因为他们——美国真正展示自己的力量、威胁别人、介入伊朗以及介入委内瑞拉，实际上让其他所有人都感到越来越不安全，并且——

英文原文

>> because them, United States really flexing their their power and threatening people and going into Iran and going into Venezuela has actually made everyone else feel less less safe and

嗯，我们扼杀了我们自己的力量。

英文原文

>> well, we've killed our power.

所以，他们转而与彼此结成伙伴。

英文原文

>> So, they've gone and partnered with each other.

是的。

英文原文

>> Yeah.

实际上，他们把这称作什么？以实力求和平，还是以和平求实力，就是你只需……

英文原文

>> And actually, what do they call it? Peace through strength or strength through peace where you just

以和平求实力。不过……

英文原文

>> strength through peace. But

类似那样的说法。是的。就是你只需……

英文原文

>> something like that. Yeah. Where you just

我不知道。

英文原文

>> I don't know.

每个人都知道你很强大，所以你根本不必真正去证明它。那在某种程度上维持了那种表象。如果你审视全球战争，战争究竟是什么？它们争夺的是世界秩序的本质，是究竟要由独裁者统治的大陆主义者主导——如果你生活在俄罗斯，要是有人看上了你的企业而且他们有关系，那就完了，他们会夺走你的企业，而且顺便说一句，你还会被送到前线去，你别无选择，事情就是这样；还是我们要继续坚持民主体制？民主国家是唯一拥有极高人均生活水平的国家，对吧？民主国家才是真正有能力创造财富的国家。这向来令人赞叹。虽然有很多事情让我感到震惊，但当美国在针对移民挑刺时，

英文原文

>> You everyone knows you're strong so you don't ever have to really prove it. And that's kind of what keeps up the illusion. If you look at global wars, war and what they are is over the nature of the world order of whether it's going to be these continentalists ruled by dictators who if you lived in Russia, if someone wants your business and if they're connected, that's it. They take your business. It just, oh, and by the way, you're going to be put on the front lines. You have no choice. It's just the way it goes. Or are we going to uh keep going with de democracies? And democracies are the only ones with really high per capita standards of living, right? Democracies are the ones that are really capable of generating wealth. It's been wonderful. And then there are many things that I find appalling, but as the United States is picking on immigrants,

他们担心那些杀害了他人的个别非法移民，那确实很可怕，我理解。但我想到的是那些如今正在收买我们选举的科技亿万富翁移民。埃隆·马斯克已经向德克萨斯州投入了1.6亿美元。他是一个不正常的南非人。他有什么权利来收买我们的……

英文原文

so they're worried about the oneoff illegal who murder someone, and that's terrible. I get it. But I'm thinking about the tech billionaire immigrants who are now buying our elections. Elon Musk has put $160 million into the state of Texas. He's a dysfunctional South African. What right does he have to buy our

选举？我以前住在得克萨斯州，他们那儿有句俗话：“别惹得州”（Don't mess with Texas）。真的吗？所以，你们就愿意让埃隆这样来折腾你们？还有其他那些人也是。呃，有很多科技亿万富翁，不是所有人，但他们当中的许多人都是外国出生的。这没什么问题。来美国完全没问题。但当你想摧毁我们的民主，仅仅因为你害怕……你害怕支付更高的税收，这就有天大的问题了。你害怕别人监管你的媒体平台，以至于无法在某种程度上减缓那些流传的谎言。美国人忽略了究竟谁才是危险的移民。他们只有少数几个人，而他们现在正试图买下我们的选举。他们怎么敢这样？我是说，最近几周也是如此，美国似乎对泽连斯基和乌克兰转了向。

英文原文

elections?

used

live

Texas

and

they

have

saying,

don't

mess

with

Texas.

Really?

So,

you

want

Elon

messing

with

you

this

way?

And

then

the

other

ones

well.

there

are

many

the

tech

billionaires,

not

all

them,

but

many

them

are

foreignb

born.

problem

with

that.

problem

coming

the

United

States.

every

problem

when

you're

trying

take

down

our

democracy

and

just

you

pay

you're

afraid

paying

higher

taxes.

You're

afraid

people

regulating

your

media

platforms

that

there's

some

way

slow

down

the

lies

that

are

going

through

Americans

miss

who

the

dangerous

immigrants

are.

There

are a

handful

them

and

they're

trying

buy

our

elections

right

now.

How

dare

they?

mean,

recent

weeks

well,

America

seemed

have

turned

against

Zillinsky

and

the

Ukraine.

美国没有转向，是唐纳德·特朗普转向了。

英文原文

>> America

didn't.

Donald

Trump

did.

唐纳德·特朗普确实转了，当然。

英文原文

>> Donald

Trump

has.

Certainly.

是的。他代表不了美国，他只代表他自己。这太不可思议了。是的，他断送了美国的政治遗产。嗯，他不就是一个经历过接连破产的家伙吗？因为他有钱又有律师，他就直接把烂摊子扔在身后，然后拍拍屁股继续往前走。

英文原文

>> Yeah.

He's

not

America.

He's

himself.

That's

incredible.

Yeah.

He's

killed

the

legacy.

Well,

isn't

guy

who

goes

through

serial

bankruptcies

and

because

he's

rich

and

has

lawyers,

just

leaves

the

trash

behind

him

and

moves

forward.

美国人确实给他投了票。

英文原文

>> America

did

vote

for

him.

是的，三分之一的美国人投了他，三分之一的美国人没投他，剩下的三分之一压根懒得离开沙发。呃，他们得从沙发上站起来。而且重新评估并不是一件坏事。固然，美国人当时的想法没有错，呃，现有的体制对美国人不起作用。因此，他们想要……他们投票给了那个打算掀翻棋盘的人。结果证明，那比其他备选方案还要糟糕，对吧？关键在于，不要在错路上越陷越深。比方说，如果我买了一个糟糕的披萨，我原本以为它看起来很不错。我绝不会去告诉你它是个好披萨；我会告诉你它简直烂透了，我在这家买的，千万别去碰。好吧。要是你做了一件影响深远的大事，比如你投票给了一个卷入战争、导致经济崩溃的人，然后你还不打算重新评估吗？我是说，人生不就是随着阅历增长而不断学习新东西吗？比如在你这个年纪，你认为你已经把余生该学的东西都学完了吗？你生命中所有该知晓的事情，你此时此刻都已经全知道了？

英文原文

>> Yeah.

third

America

voted

for

him,

third

America

didn't,

and

the

other

third

wouldn't

get

off

the

couch.

they

need

get

off

the

couch.

And

reassessment,

it's

not

bad

thing.

It's

sure

Americans

were

correct

that

it's

not

working

for

Americans.

Therefore,

they

wanted

they

voted

for

the

guy

who

was

going

throw

over

the

chessboard.

Well,

turns

out

that

was

worse

than

the

alternatives,

right?

And

the

thing

not

double

down

that.

for

instance,

buy

lousy

pizza,

thought

looked

really

good.

I'm

not

going

tell

you

it's

good

pizza.

I'll

tell

you

it's

really

lousy.

bought

here.

Don't

ever

touch

it.

Okay.

You

something

really

consequential

you

vote

for

someone

who

gets

into

war

that's

tanked

the

economy

and

then

you're

not

going

reassess.

mean,

isn't

life

that

you

live

you

learn

things?

your

age,

you

think

you've

learned

everything

you've

going

learn

for

the

rest

your

life?

That

that

everything

that

there

know

that

your

life,

you

already

know

right

this

moment.

当然不是。

英文原文

>> Of

course

not.

没错。如果到此为止，某种程度上就像行尸走肉一样。因此，大概随着你继续走下去，你会觉得：“哦，我以前这么想，但现在我那么想了。”

英文原文

>> Right.

And

it'd

death

way

this

it.

And

presumably

you

keep

going,

you'll

go,

"Oh,

used

think

this,

but

now

think

that."

你知道我现在34岁了。我刚满34岁。我这么说部分是因为，当我坐在这里，听到像你这样比我更懂历史的人告诉我存在第二次世界大战般的危险或威胁时，我内心深处有很大一部分——在如此享有特权的秩序中长大——根本无法想象那种场景。

英文原文

>> Do

you

know

I'm

years

old

now.

I've

just

turned

And

say

that

part

because

when

sit

here

and

hear

people

yourself

who

understand

history

better

than

tell

that

there's

danger

threat

World

War

II,

there

part

that

has

grown

with

such

privileged

order

that

just

can't

imagine

it.

确实如此。

英文原文

>> Amen.

我无法想象炸弹从头顶飞过，我……我以前从未见过这种场面。

英文原文

>> I

can't

imagine

bombs

flying

over

head

and

I've

just

never

seen

before.

你愿意承受泽连斯基总统不得不目睹的那些记忆吗？

英文原文

>> Would

you

for

President

Zilinsk's

memories

the

things

he's

had

look

at?

是的，他跟我说过。对，他一开始也和你一样。他也从未见过这一切，而且他还没有避开视线的余地。对于像我这样在非常享有特权的西方民主社会中长大的人，看着如今世界各地发生的这一切，你有什么想说的？在某种程度上，我想我们正处于视而不见的风险中，因为我们……我们没有……我们并不那么了解历史，而且我们的历史很短暂，是一个井然有序的历史，即便有事发生，也是发生在遥远的地方。

英文原文

>> Yeah,

told

me.

Yeah,

started

out

you.

hadn't

seen

any

this

either

and

then

doesn't

have

the

pleasure

averting

his

eyes.

What

your

message

for

people

that

have

grown

very

sort

privileged

western

lives,

democratic

societies

who

are

seeing

all

this

stuff

happen

around

the

world

now?

And

some

degree,

guess

we're

risk

turning

blind

eye

because

haven't

don't

know

history

that

well

and

our

history

short

one

and

it's

orderly

one

and

things

happen

but

they

happen

far

away.

好吧，我感觉首先要表达歉意，呃，我们这一代人留给你们的是如此一团糟，而原本你们理应把世界建设得对后人更好。并不是所有人……有许多人已经把它建设得更好了，但目前美国正在让它变得糟糕得多。美国目前正在做的负面事情，我无法向你言说我有多么痛心。呃，对于年轻人，我敦促你们去阅读，并在你们的一生中不断学习，与其他人交流，打破隔绝我们的信息茧房去对话，呃，彼此以礼相待，还有……呃，去投票。走到外面去投票，这是你们的公民义务。这并没有那么难。你可以安排好你的一天，好让自己能去现场投票。

英文原文

Well,

feel

starting

apology

that

what

generation

leaving

you

such

mess

and

you're

supposed

make

better

for

the

people

who

come

after.

And

not

all

there

many

who've

made

better,

but

currently

the

United

States

making

lot

worse.

And

cannot

tell

you

the

sorrow

feel

for

the

negative

things

that

the

United

States

doing

right

now

for

young

people

urge

you

read

and

keep

learning

throughout

your

life

talk

other

people,

talk

across

these

silos

that

divide

and

polite

each

other

and

vote.

get

out

there

and

vote

and

it's

your

civic

duty.

isn't

that

hard.

You

can

arrange

your

day

you

can

show

and

vote.

你不觉得现在有太多事情正在……我不知道历史上是否一直都是这种情况，但对于现在的年轻人来说，部分原因是因为我们与互联网的连接如此紧密。

英文原文

>> Do

you

not

think

there's

just

much

going

don't

know

whether

this

was

always

the

case

history

but

for

young

people

these

days

part

because

we're

connected

the

internet.

我们看到中东这边的战争。我们看到乌克兰的战争。我们看到伊朗。我们看到加沙这种局势。我们看到被称为人工智能的这个东西正在涌现，他们还告诉我们说我们将连一份该死的工作都找不到。这边还有全球变暖，他们说所有地方要么被洪水淹没，要么被烧光，到处都是森林火灾。这实在太多了。

英文原文

>> We're

seeing

war

over

here

the

Middle

East.

We're

seeing

war

Ukraine.

We're

seeing

Iran.

We're

seeing

this

situation

Gaza.

We're

seeing

this

thing

called

coming

and

they're

telling

we're

going

have

bloody

jobs.

You

got

global

warming

over

here

and

they

say

everything's

going

flood

burn

and

forest

fires

everywhere.

It's

lot.

战争与政治的层次：战术、战役与战略

是的，确实很多。但硬币的另一面是，当我遇到人们时——凭你的工作，你见过的人比我多得多——全世界到处都有更多美好的人。阴暗人格类型的人实际上数量极少。而我们其他人所有人，只要我们在各自不同的领域尽我们所能——因为我们做的事情各不相同——我们就会度过难关。所以我是一名退休教授，我能尽什么微薄之力呢？我可以给你提供概念。啊，去……虚假信息（disinformation），那是普京所做的事；然后当你相信了它却不知道那是谎言时，你就是在传播错误信息（misinformation）。所以，呃，这是个问题。

英文原文

>> Yeah,

lot.

But

here's

the

flip

when

meet

people

and

you've

met

many

people

than

have

with

your

job.

There

are

many

wonderful

people

all

over

the

world.

The

dark

personality

types

are

actually

very

few

number.

and

all

the

rest

all

what

can

our

various

spheres

cuz

all

different

things

will

get

through

this

I'm

retired

professor

what

little

can

give

you

concepts

disinformation

that's

what

Putin

does

then

when

you

believe

but

don't

know

it's

lies

you're

spreading

misinformation

that's

problem

还有哪些相关的概念是我们还没涵盖的？

英文原文

>> what

other

concepts

haven't

covered

that

are

pertinent.

哦，我知道我们还有什么没涉及了。好的。那么，我们来谈谈战术层面。战……无论如何，战争的战……战术层面，就好比说我有一辆坦克。它具有一定的作战能力，一定的射程。它有一定的装甲。某些武器能将它摧毁。噢。噢，你……我喜欢这个。

英文原文

>> Oh,

know

what

haven't

covered.

All

right.

So,

let's

talk

about

tactical

level.

Tactile.

Anyway,

the

tact

the

tactical

level

war

would

got

tank.

has

certain

capabilities,

certain

range.

It's

got

certain

armor.

Certain

things

can

take

out.

Oh.

Oh,

you

love

it.

这里底下画了个小坦克。

英文原文

>> Got

little

tank

down

here.

里面还有人。多谢。好的。但随后在战役（战役法）层面，你要么去打一场战斗，要么打一连串战斗，这被称为一次战役。然后你要把坦克部队和其他不同的部队编组在一起。并且你还要采用……我不知道，开展一场信息战之类的。而且这大概是为了拿下那个山头或者做别的什么。但随后还有一个真正起决定作用的层面，就是这一个——战略层面。比如，你一开始究竟为什么而战？这就像是：“嘿，唐纳德，你在……在伊朗做什么？”所以在战略层面，对政治人物而言，它理应是保护我们的国家安全和促进国家的繁荣。本该是这样的。而在伊朗的战争中，你担心核不扩散。然而那场战争却在以最恶劣的方式刺激核扩散。而且它正在以极其高昂的代价这样做。所以，共和党的问题就在这里。这场战争以及领导它的人，还有他那真正无能的政府，他们通过摧毁我们的同盟体系，纵容他做出了所有这些事情。正是这个同盟体系本来可以保护他们的子孙后代。这对他们不利。所以他们停留在战役……因此现在我们要把这个应用到政治上，因为我们不讨论战争了。你可以有各种战术，比如……哦，既然你刚才谈到了泽连斯基总统。那么，我之前描述过的一种战术，就是特朗普把泽连斯基叫进椭圆形办公室的那场恶劣会面，当时特朗普和万斯这两位母语是英语的人一起围攻泽连斯基，而泽连斯基当时一定以为那只是一次常规的拍照会面，他们却试图在公开场合羞辱他。你记得这个吗？所以，那会是一种战术，对吧？其他战术还包括否认究竟……呃，是谁赢得了选举。乔·拜登赢得了选举。对此证据确凿。其余的一切都是谎言。在政治战役层面，则是你必须赢得选举。所以这就是共和党人全部聚焦所在，就在这里。他们心想：“如果我们抛弃那个橙色家伙，我们就无法连任了。”也许事实上，如果你们在第一任期就抛弃那个橙色家伙，情况会对你们好得多。或者更好的是，在第二任期不要支持他。那对你们会好得多。你们手上实际上会有一个正常运转的共和党。相反，你们毁掉了这个党，并且毁掉了你们子孙后代的未来。到底谁会干出这种事？这就是把目光聚焦在战役层面导致的。所以，军官们，他们特别喜欢关注战役层面。他们想用这个去干掉一个……

英文原文

>> Guys

there.

Thanks.

Okay.

But

then

the

operational

level,

you're

either

going

fight

battle

succession

battles,

which

called

campaign.

And

then

you're

going

put

together

tank

units

and

other

different

units.

And

you're

going

use,

don't

know,

have

information

campaign,

whatever.

And

it's

probably

take

that

hill

whatever.

But

then

there's

level

that

really

counts,

just

this

one,

the

strategic

level.

Like,

why

are

you

fighting

the

first

place?

It's

like,

hey,

Donald,

what

are

you

doing

Iran?

the

strategic

level

for

politicians,

should

protecting

our

national

security

and

promoting

national

prosperity.

That's

what

should

be.

And

the

war

Iran,

you're

worried

about

non-prololiferation.

Except

that

war

incentivizing

proliferation

the

worst

possible

way.

And

it's

doing

incredibly

costly

way.

here's

the

problem

with

the

Republican

party.

this

war

and

the

guy

who's

running

and

his

truly

incompetent

administration,

they

have

enabled

him

all

these

things

that

have

blowing

our

alliance

system.

That

the

alliance

system

that

would

protect

their

children

and

their

grandchildren.

It's

bad

for

them.

they're

the

operation.

now

we're

going

apply

this

politics

because

we're

not

doing

war.

You

can

have

tactics

which

might

since

you

were

talking

President

Zilinski.

So,

one

tactic

which

I've

described

before

when

Trump

had

him

that

Oval

Office

evil

interview

where

the

two

native

English

speakers,

Trump

and

Vance,

are

going

after

Zilinsky,

who

must

have

thought

was

routine

photo

and

they're

trying

humiliate

him

public.

You

remember

this?

So,

that

would

tactic,

right?

Other

tactics

would

denying

who

won

the

election.

Joe

Biden

won

the

election.

The

evidence

that.

All

the

rest

its

lies

politics

operational

level

you

got

win

the

election.

that

where

the

Republicans

are

all

focused

right

here.

They're

going

dump

the

orange

guy,

won't

get

reelected.

Maybe

fact,

you

dump

the

orange

guy

first

term,

would

have

been

much

better

for

you.

better

yet,

don't

support

him

the

second

term.

He's

much

better

for

you.

You'd

actually

have

functioning

Republican

party

your

hands.

Instead,

you've

killed

the

party

and

you've

destroyed

your

children's

futures.

Who

the

hell

does

that?

It's

focusing

this

operational

level.

So,

officers,

they

love

focusing

the

operational

level.

They

want

use

this

kill

很多人会说：“啊，当我杀掉你们的人比你们杀掉我们的人多时，肯定就意味着我赢了。” 哦，真的吗？那越南战争呢？他们的伤亡人数是我们伤亡人数的数倍。最终赢得战争的是他们。南越政府彻底不复存在了。你看，面对如今乌克兰与俄罗斯的局势，有些人会说，你看，北约曾承诺不会侵占俄罗斯边境，结果却一步步步步逼近。所以，那些人可能会说，你看——

英文原文

lot of people and go, "Ah, when I kill more of your guys than you kill my guys, must mean I won." Oh, really? Vietnam war? They took a multiple of our casualties. They won that thing. There's no South Vietnamese government left. you know, the people with this Ukraine Russia situation that say, well, you know, NATO promised it wouldn't encroach on Russia's borders and it came closer and closer and closer. So, those people might say, well, you know,

他们确实在说，你这是在重复普京的宣传论点。

英文原文

>> they do say you're you're um repeating uh Putin's propaganda points.

没错。好吧，让我们梳理一下这一切的历史。首先，美国并没有到处去强迫大家、说你们必须加入北约、你们必须加入北约。恰恰完全相反。是这些人蜂拥着想要挤进北约的大门。

英文原文

>> Yes. All right, let's let's do the history of all of this. First of all, the United States didn't go around and try and stronging our arm everyone and say you must join NATO. You must join NATO. Absolutely the opposite. These folks were stampeding to NATO's doors.

哪些人？

英文原文

>> Which folks?

曾经身处苏联阵营的每一个人。德国过去曾处于分裂状态，但你还有波兰；捷克斯洛伐克过去曾是一个国家；奥地利当时是中立的；还有匈牙利；当时的南斯拉夫版图也更大。总之，所有那些部分——罗马尼亚、保加利亚——在冷战结束时，所有那些人都极度迫切地想加入北约。为什么？因为他们知道俄罗斯想要帝国，而且俄罗斯当时已经在做的事情是调入他们在战争期间训练的所有骨干，比如保加利亚的共产党侨民、罗马尼亚人、匈牙利人，把他们安插到位，然后接管强力部门——也就是军方、战争部，不管它叫什么，因为这决定了你能向谁开枪；在那些地方还有内政部，在我们国家就相当于司法部，因为那决定了谁会被逮捕，并且你还能掌控法院。然后，如果在那个年代设有信息部，你想控制谁能获取信息。此外，他们还想要农业部门，因为当你推进集体化和去集体化时，那将决定政治恩庇与利益分配的可能空间。所以我们的将领们纷纷写信汇报说，他们正在搞所有这些名堂，而我们根本阻止不了他们。

英文原文

>> Everybody who was in the Soviet block. So Germany used to be divided, but you have Poland and Czechoslovakia used to be one thing, but um Austria was neutral, but Hungary and then Yugoslavia was bigger. Anyway, all those pieces, Romania, uh Bulgaria, at the end of the Cold War, all those people wanted NATO in the worst possible way. Why? because they know Russia wants empire and already what Russia's doing is they're bringing in all their cadres whom they trained during the war and they're like Bulgarian communist expats Romanians uh Hungarians putting them in place and then they're taking over the power ministries which are the military department of war whatever it's called because that determines whom you can shoot in those places it's the interior ministry in our country it would be the justice department because that's who gets arrested and you control the courts. And then the if there's an information ministry in those days, uh you want to control who has access to to information. And then also they wanted agriculture because when you're going to um collectivize and deolctivize, that's going to determine patronage possibilities. So our generals are writing back and going, they're doing all this stuff and we can't stop them.

于是他们在整个东欧都这么干。他们最终对竞选过其他政党的人进行了大规模清洗，谋杀了大量的人，谋杀了许多领导人。我不是在开玩笑。他们在杀人。他们把人无休止地关进监狱。然后他们说：“你们必须遵行这一套共产主义制度。”于是他们被困在其中。接着有一些德国人对此不太满意，俄罗斯人在53年对他们大打出手。随后匈牙利人说：“听着，我们得在这里做些调整，因为这套共产主义行不通。”他们是对的。俄罗斯人派来了坦克，击毙了他们的国家元首，尽管他们曾承诺过不会这么做。俄罗斯人从未为他们的所作所为赎罪，也从未承认过这一切。而现在，他们编造了你从别人那里听来并正在传播的这套说法：哦，全都是北约东扩惹的祸。我认为我已经向你提供了确凿的事实，告诉你为什么生活在这些国家的人对俄罗斯人感到恐惧。他们一进来就残暴无比。他们又极度无能。

英文原文

And so they do it throughout Eastern Europe. Uh they wind up doing uh massive purges of people who had run for other parties, murdering loads of them, murdering many leaders. I'm not kidding. They're murdering people. They're putting people in jail forever. And then they say, "You have to do this communist thing." And so they're stuck with it. And then there are Germans who aren't too happy with it and the Russians are beating them up in 53. And then you have uh Hungarians saying, "Look, we we we need to do some adjustments here because the communist thing isn't working. They're correct. Russians send tanks and they shoot their head head of state even though they promised they wouldn't." And the Russians have never atoned for what they did and never acknowledged all of this. And so now they've made up this story that you're purveying that you get from others that, oh, it's NATO expansion that did all of this. And I think I've given you serious facts to tell you why people living in these countries were terrified of Russians. Uh they're brutal when they come in. They're incompetent.

我曾经在88、89年苏联还在的时候住在那里。那是在戈尔巴乔夫执政初期，供应体系正在瓦解。走进他们的一家杂货店，总共大概只有77种商品。我认为这差不多相当于随便哪家便利店出门结账处的糖果架吧，

英文原文

So I was living in the Soviet Union when it still was 88 89. So this is early Gorbachop at the supply systems uh falling apart and went into one of their grocery stores and it had about total of 77 items. And I think that compares to, I don't know, a candy rack as you're exiting some convenience store,

对吧？

英文原文

>> right?

如果你走过肉类柜台，腐烂肉块散发的气味几乎能把你熏倒，你只能完全避开那一带。有时他们会有被称为进口货的商品。也就是说，任何来自其他地方的东西都比我们手头的强，因为你只要把它称为进口货就能卖得出去。我当时吃的是烂掉的匈牙利苹果，因为他们至少还能生产出苹果。我做了苹果酱。哦，是罗马尼亚人做出了品质相当不错的番茄罐头。俄罗斯人做不到的事情之多，简直令人难以置信。所以，我的意思是，我认为我已经拿出了证据，证明这些人之所以想加入北约，完全是因为俄罗斯的所作所为。

英文原文

If you went by the meat counters, the smell from the rotting meat just about knocked you down and you just avoided all of that. And then occasionally they would have items called import na import it. I.e. anything from anywhere else is better than what we've got because you're just you can sell it on the basis of calling it imported. I was eating rotting Hungarian apples because at least they could uh produce apples. I made applesauce. Oh, it was the Romanians who made some pretty good canned tomatoes. It was just incredible what the Russians couldn't do. So, I mean, I think I got the evidence of why uh the reason these people uh want to be part of NATO is because of what Russia does.

俄罗斯审视着整个世界。我之前讲过半场网球的例子。天哪，那就像是他们脑子里只看半场之类的。他们觉得所有人都在欺负我们，而不是反思一下：不好意思，你们曾经威胁过别人吗？你们曾经对别人做过任何稍有不轨的事情吗？

英文原文

So, Russia looks at the entire world. So, I've talked about half court tennis. boy, that's uh they're like half court, whatever it is up there. They look at it as that everyone else is picking on us instead of excuse me, uh have you ever threatened other people? Have you ever done anything vaguely naughty to anybody else?

对吧？他们对别人所做的一切是极其恶劣的。然后他们居然还有脸说这些人威胁到了他们。拜托，看看它的国土有多大。

英文原文

Right? It's huge what they've done to other people. And then they have the nerve to say that these people are threatening them. Excuse look how large it is.

俄罗斯，

英文原文

>> Russia,

你为什么还需要更多领土？你为什么不能把自己拥有的土地开发好？我的意思是，一个极佳的例子——说到糟糕透顶的地段，让我们看看斯堪的纳维亚国家。他们可没有怨天尤人。

英文原文

>> why do you need more territory? Why can't you develop what you have? I mean, a great example is talk about a lousy piece of real estate. Let's look at the Scandinavian countries. They aren't whining.

看看他们利用自身的资源创造了什么。他们是运转极佳的卓越国家。俄罗斯本也可以做到这一点。相反，它却试图去掠夺别人的东西。

英文原文

And look what they've done with their resources. They're these fabulous functioning states. Russia could have done that. Instead, it's trying to steal things from others.

所以，对你的朋友来说，你在越靠前的防线挡住这些人，你就越安全。此外，为什么乌克兰人应该沦为谋杀他们的凶手的奴隶？为什么？为什么？你和英国有什么特权，可以让你们就这么轻描淡写地说：“哦，好吧，那挺好，谁在乎呢？”

英文原文

So, for your friend, the further back you stop these people, the safer you are. Also, why should Ukrainians become the slaves of their murderers? Why? Why? What? What's so privileged about you and Britain that you can just sort of go, "Oh, well, that's great. Who cares?"

道德是重要的。这就是规范至关重要的地方。诚实至关重要。我也会犯错。尽管指出来我哪里错了，我会努力把它理顺澄清。

英文原文

Morals matter. And this is where the norms matter. Honesty matters. I can be wrong. By all means, let me know that I'm wrong and I'll try to square it away.

但是要倾听别人的意见。继续做你正在做的事。你需要从许多不同的角度获取准确的信息，这样人们才能得出自己的结论。美国人所做的是忘记了他们的核心价值观，从你的角度来看，这些价值观写在一份令人讨厌的文件里——那就是《独立宣言》。但在那份文件里，它谈到了生命权，而且这不是剥夺他人生命的权利，而是维护自身自由的权利。不是由我来命令你该做什么的自由，而是由我自主做出选择的自由；以及对幸福的追求——不是按你所定义的，而是按我所定义的。

英文原文

But hear other people out. Keep doing what you're doing. Uh you need to have accurate information from many points of view so that people can come to their own conclusions. What Americans have done is forgotten their core values which are in a nasty doc document from your point of view. It's the declaration of independence. But in there it talks about the rights of life and it's not the the right to take someone else's life but preserve your own liberty. Not the liberty for me to tell you what to do but the liberty for me to make my own choices and pursuit of happiness. Not as you define it but as I define it.

能源价格与国内政治

过去这一两周似乎——因为我认为特别是加油站的柴油价格已经上涨到了大约6美元左右。特朗普已经与普京就柴油出口达成了协议，部分原因是他在伊朗的战争引发了这种全球性的能源……

英文原文

>> It appears in the last week or two because I think it was diesel prices in particular gone up at the pump to something like $6. Trump has made a deal with Putin for diesel exports in part because of his war in Iran has caused this sort of global energy.

哦，这是虚假信息。真的是虚假信息。俄罗斯根本没有能力出口足够数量的柴油来产生任何实质影响。柴油价格上涨的相关性在于伊朗战争。一旦伊朗战争爆发——这与那里谁生产什么级别的石油、以及他们拥有什么样的炼油厂来提炼柴油有关，因为炼油厂显然是设定用来生产特定级别的产出。是的，你可以改造炼油厂来生产不同级别的产出，但我认为要改造你的炼油厂，那意味着数百万美元的投入以及一定的时间周期。所以，柴油的事情绝对完全是特朗普的战争的责任。而他却试图归咎于乌克兰。这太卑劣了。

英文原文

>> Oh, this is disinformation. Really the disinformation. Russia has no capacity to export diesel in sufficient quantities to make any difference whatsoever. The correlation for when diesel prices go up is with the Iran war. once the Iran war hits and it has to do with who produces what grades of oil there and what kind of refineries they have in order to refined diesel because refineries apparently are set up to produce certain grades of output. And yes, you can change a refinery to do a different grade output, but I believe you're talking millions of dollars in a certain amount of time to redo your refinery. So, the diesel stuff is absolutely Trump's war's fault. And he's trying to blame Ukraine. It's despicable.

一如既往，他在撒谎。所以，美国人民，你们真的想要这个大骗子当总司令吗？这对你们有多大好处呢？真的吗？我的意思是，你们的食品杂货价格是变好了还是变差了？在过去两年里它们是好转了，还是在过去两年里急剧恶化了？我认为答案显而易见。我最近去超市，一小包不起眼的燕麦片差不多要10美元。令人震惊。简直令人瞠目结舌。谢谢你啊，唐纳德·特朗普。然后还对所有这些来自墨西哥和加拿大的进口食品征收关税。

英文原文

As usual, he's lying. And so, Americans, really, you want the liar and chief. How well has it worked for you? Really? I mean, are your grocery prices, are they better or are they worse? Are they better in the last two years or they gotten dramatically worse in the last two years? I think it's pretty obvious. I was at the supermarket recently and oatmeal was like $10 for a little dumb package of it. Mindblowing. Just mind-blowing. Thank you, Donald Trump. And then tariffing all this food imports from Mexico and Canada.

我可不是凭空捏造的，对吧？我从来不是——我以前从来都不是党派偏见者。但是看着共和党，我心里想，你们怎么能做出这种事？那也是你们的孩子啊。你们正在毁掉美国，而且你们所造成的破坏不是暂时的，只要目前活在这个世上并会记住它的人还在，这种破坏就会一直持续下去。

英文原文

Uh I'm not making it up, right? I haven't been I never used to be partisan. Uh, but I'm looking at the Republican party and thinking, how can you do this? It's your children, too. You're wrecking the United States, and you're doing it not temporarily, but you're doing it for as long as anyone who's alive at this moment and will remember it.

乌克兰能打赢俄罗斯吗？

英文原文

>> Can the Ukraine win against Russia?

当然，它现在正在取胜，

英文原文

Sure, it is winning right now

因为它有能力保卫自己。

英文原文

>> because it's able to defend itself.

乌克兰人已经开发出了所有这些不同种类的无人机，我知道，星链正在干扰他们的一些拦截器，但他们一直在研发弹道导弹，很快就会取得进展。而且，哦，美国……通过马斯克启用了自毁开关……

英文原文

>> Ukrainians have developed all these different kinds of drones and I get it. Starlink's uh messing up with some of their interceptors, but they've been developing uh ballistic missiles that are going to happen rapidly. And oh, the United States um by Musk doing the kill switch on

星链（Starlink）已经做到了这一步。所以，任何认真考虑的人都不会再去买星链了。印度之前在考虑它。这就好比，不行，如果你在战争中途会把它关掉的话就不行。还有什么来着？那家法国替代公司的股票在过去几天里大幅上涨。你可以去查查我说得对不对，但大家都在看，都在说：“好吧，所以埃隆（Elon）可能获得了短期收益，但在整件事上承受了长期损失。”然后再说到美国的“爱国者”导弹系统，如果富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福在拜登政府时期——乌克兰战争第二阶段爆发时——担任总统的话，他早就让那家公司去大规模量产了，并且会说：“听着，你们别想着靠单价来赚钱。你们要靠走量来赚钱。”

英文原文

Tus Starlink has made it. So, no one's going to be serious is going to be buying Starlink. India was thinking of it. It's like no, not if in the middle of the war you're going to turn it off. And what is it? The shares for whatever the French alternate company is has gone way up in the last few days. You can check whether I got this right, but people are looking at going, "Okay, so Elon maybe short-term gain but longtime loss on all of this." And then for US Patriot Missile Systems, if Franklin Delanor Roosevelt had been president during the Biden administration when the second phase of the Ukraine war kicked off, he would have u ma gotten that company to massproduce it and saying, "Look, you're not going to make be making your money on unit cost. You're going to be making it on the quantity."

但人们都在说，你知道的，随着特朗普背弃泽连斯基，而普京又与中国和那里的习主席关系亲密，泽连斯基毫无胜算。

英文原文

>> But people are saying, you know, with Trump turning his back on Zalinsky and Putin being in bed with China and President Xi there, Zalinsky has no chance.

不。那是胡说。呃，不。他正在研发自己的导弹系统。俄罗斯无法替换，承担不起替换所有这些炼油厂的代价。那是基于西方技术的。

英文原文

>> No. That's bull. Uh, no. He's um developing his own uh missile systems. Russia can't replace it can't afford to replace all these refineries. It's based on Western tech.

石油炼油厂。

英文原文

>> The oil refiner.

是的。我记不清俄罗斯的炼油能力已经下降到了百分之几。我不知道现在是不到一半，还是略多于一半。你可以去谷歌搜索查到数据。然后乌克兰人打击了 Yandex，以及他们相当于谷歌之类的东西，并炸毁了这些设施。

英文原文

>> Yeah. I I can't remember what percentage of the refining capacity that Russia's down to. I don't know whether it's less than half now, slightly more than half. You can Google and get the data. And then um the Ukrainians have gone after Yandex and whatever their their their equivalent of Goo uh Google and um blowing away these things.

俄罗斯已经损失了高达 50% 的运营中炼油厂。

英文原文

>> Russia has lost up to 50% of its operating oil refinery.

我之前就在说我不知道，因为情况会有波动，对吧，他们开始修复，然后又有一座遭到打击，而乌克兰——乌克兰是全凭一己之力在做这件事。没有星链参与其中，仅仅是因为那是在俄罗斯本土之上，而且他们研发设备的速度越来越快。谁会去购买所有这些东西呢？因为乌克兰生产的其中一些东西已经绰绰有余了。他们将成为首选的防务供应商，因为我们在美国的东西实在太贵了。而这些“爱国者”系统的东西，呃，这就是为什么它显得令人惊叹地无能。我们在这种拦截弹上面临短缺，而这场战斗已经持续了这么多年。富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福当年开始告诉人们他想要几万架飞机时，人们觉得他疯了，但他把商界人士召集到桌旁：“你们需要什么？你们能把它办成吗？”结果事情办成了。

英文原文

>> I was telling I didn't know cuz it it varies right they start fixing it then another one gets hit and uh Ukraine and Ukraine's doing that on on its lonesome. know Starlink involved in that just because it's over Russia Russian territory and they're developing stuff more rapidly and who's be buying all these because they're producing more than enough of some of these things. They're going to be the go-to defense supplier cuz our the stuff in the United States is way too expensive and this Patriot stuff uh this is why it's just breathtakingly incompetent. The fact that we have a shortage of these interceptors and this fighting has been going on for any number of years. Franklin Delanor Roosevelt uh started telling people how many tens of thousands of airplanes he won and people thought he was nuts and he got the businessmen around the table. What do you need? You going to make it happen? It happened.

你认为如果对泽连斯基的资金支持枯竭了——来自欧洲和美国的外部资金支持？

英文原文

>> Do you think if funding does dry up for Zillinsky, external funding from Europe and from the United States?

我认为来自欧洲的不会枯竭。为什么？因为欧洲——俄罗斯接下来会盯上欧洲其余部分。它会来的。按照普京的那套小模式，他们也处于死地。

如果你想想欧洲在安全方面的态度是如何因为 2022 年的战争而彻底转变的，那种态度并没有改变。

我不知道所有的这些——恶人老弗拉德（Vlad the Bad）正在散布极大的虚假信息，让人们以为他正在获胜。他没有赢。他正在毁掉自己的国家。所以，我不知道他的那些狐朋狗友会不会哪天早上在他的早餐里放点什么特别的东西。可能不会。呃，74 岁的他承受着巨大的压力。我不知道。我可不想在承受他那样的压力水平下生活。到这个年纪吃不消了。另外，在前线作战的年轻男子在什么时候会发生暴动？他们在什么时候会拿起枪，直接把枪口对准自己的指挥官？

英文原文

>> I don't think it will from Europe. Why? Because Europe um Russia will be coming for the rest of Europe. It will be coming. They are on death ground too with Putin's little model.

If you think about how European attitudes on security changed on a dime because of the 2022 war, that hasn't changed.

And I don't know what all the there's tremendous disinformation that good old Vlad the Bad is putting out to get people thinking that he's winning. He's not. He's wrecking his country. So, I have no idea whether his his little friends will uh put something special in his breakfast some morning. Probably not. Uh he's under enormous stress at 74. I don't know. I wouldn't want to be living with his stress levels. Wrong age for it. And uh alternatively, at what point do the young men at the front lines riot? At what point uh did they take their guns and just go after their commanders?

我是说，我们看到那差点就发生了，不是吗，跟那个……

英文原文

>> I mean, we saw that almost happen, didn't we, with um

普里奥任？

英文原文

>> Preosian?

普里戈任。对。

英文原文

>> Progosian. Yeah.

是的。呃，在什么节点上会发生这种事？还有，当你想到这些被送到前线的孩子，他们都是独生子。这可不是斯大林时代的俄罗斯，那个避孕出现之前的俄罗斯，就是这样。这些走向前线的是非常特别的年轻男子。他们是仅有的后代。此外，在哪个节点上他们的母亲会坚决反对。

乌克兰战争给俄罗斯造成的经济代价是深远的，使该国经济转向高风险的战时轨道：创纪录的国防开支占国家预算的大约 40%，推高了虚假的人造 GDP 数据，同时抽干了卫生、教育和民用基础设施的资金。庞大的国家支出，加上军事动员以及数十万技术专业人才外流所引发的严重劳动力短缺，

英文原文

>> Yeah. Um at what point does that happen? And also when when you think about these kids that are being sent to the front, they're only children. This is not Russia and Stalin's day, the pre-birth control Russia, right there. These are very special young men that are going to the front. They're the only ones. And there's also at what point that their mothers put their foot down. The economic cost of the war in Ukraine on Russia has been profound, shifting the nation's economy towards a high-risisk war footing where record defense spending consuming roughly 40% of the national budget boosts artificial GDP numbers while draining funds from health, education, and civil infrastructure. The heavy state spending coupled with acute labor shortages caused by military mobilization and the

移民引发了持续的通货膨胀，并迫使俄罗斯央行将利率提高到 20% 以上。与此同时，俄罗斯失去了其利润丰厚的欧洲能源出口市场，3000 亿央行外汇储备被西方制裁冻结，并且在炼油厂屡遭远程无人机打击后，国内面临严重的燃油短缺，这些袭击已导致炼油产能下降高达 50%。

英文原文

>> immigration of hundreds of thousands of skilled professionals triggered persistent inflation and forced the central bank of Russia to hike interest rates above 20%. Simultaneously, Russia lost its lucrative European energy export market saw 300 billion in central bank reserves frozen by Western sanctions and faced severe domestic fuel shortages following repeated longrange drone strikes to its oil refineries which have caused oil refinery capacity to drop by up to 50%.

所以这就叫打赢战争？我可不这么认为。

英文原文

>> So that's called winning a war? I don't think so.

他们不可能永远这样持续下去。

英文原文

>> They can't go on like that forever.

不行。呃，他们办不到。所以，但只要弗拉基米尔·普京还活着，他就会继续这么干。显然他在那里的亲信们想要与这条船同归于尽。解决之道将是，呃，西方在台面下向他们提供某种安全撤离的通道，并附带他们所需的数十亿资金，以换取给弗拉基米尔·普京安排一份退休计划。

英文原文

>> No. Uh they can't. So, but as long as Vladimir Putin lives, he will keep doing it. And apparently his cronies there want to go are going to go down with the ship. The offramp would be um uh for the the West under the table to offer them something like a safe page passage out with however many billions they need in return for giving Vladimir Putin a retirement plan.

谁是我们的敌人？

英文原文

>> Who is our enemy?

大陆主义者。也就是中国和俄罗斯，

英文原文

>> The continentalists. So, China and Russia,

美国，唐纳德·特朗普代表着未来的走向。是的。我是说，告诉加拿大我们要吞并他们。

这要么是一个非常恶劣的笑话——我认为它不是，要么这实际上就是唐纳德·特朗普的真实想法。

而我们的共和党并没有因为他这么做就把他赶下台。所以，民主，

英文原文

>> United States, Donald Trump is what the future is. Yeah. I mean, tell telling Canada we're going to take take them over. It's either a really bad joke, which I don't think it is, or it's actually where Donald Trump lives. And we have a Republican party that hasn't thrown him out of office for doing that. So, the democracy,

那个说法是怎么说的来着？我想这大概不足为凭，但丘吉尔讲过一句挺不错的话，那就是民主是最糟糕的政府制度，但所有其他替代制度除外，对吧？因为它是混乱的，你一直在争论，而像习近平这样的人就会认为，哦不，我们更优越，因为我们有这种井然有序的体制，只是你们这些人会在糟糕的决定上一意孤行，你们一直在做同样的事情，而且你们做得越久，情况就越糟。中国的年轻人对现状并不满意。好得多的做法实际上是多党制，接受选举结果，下一次更加努力，并且允许人——尝试不断建立越来越公平的法律和规则。

英文原文

>> what is it? It's I think it's apocryphal, but it's a pretty good one of of uh Churchill that uh democracy is the worst system of government except for all the alternatives, right? Because it's messy and you're arguing all the time and the people like Xiinping will think, oh no, we're superior because we got this orderly thing except you guys double down on poor decisions and you keep doing the same thing and the longer you do it, the worse it gets. and the young in Chinese China are not happy with the way things are. The much better thing is really multi-party system accept the outcome of elections try harder the next time and uh uh allow pe have um try to keep developing fairer and fairer laws and rules.

你认为在普京之后，俄罗斯有可能出现一位民主领导人吗？

英文原文

>> Is it possible for Russia to have a democratic leader do you think after Putin?

短期内不可能。我认为实际情况是，今天的俄罗斯人实际上是支持战争的。我从没听说有一帮俄罗斯人认为他们不应该占有乌克兰。我从没听说过存在——有俄罗斯人认为战争的代价是他们不喜欢的，他们也不想在乌克兰失去孩子，但我从未听说过有任何俄罗斯人认为拿下乌克兰是个坏主意，或者说……

英文原文

>> Not anytime soon. I think the story is that Russians today are actually for the war. I've never heard that there are a bunch of Russians who think that they shouldn't own Ukraine. I've never heard that there is a there's a Russians who think that the costs of the war they don't like and they don't want to lose children in Ukraine, but I've never heard any of that Russians think it's a bad idea to uh take Ukraine or that

那么当普京去世后会发生什么？俄罗斯的体制是什么样的？会有选举，民主选举吗？会是这样吗？

英文原文

>> so what happens when Putin dies? What is the system in Russia? And is there an election, a democratic election? Is it?

得了吧。不会的，那将是一场混战。想想看，你怎样才能举行民主选举？呃，你得有所有这些用来计票的机构机制。呃，看看美国。我们都遇到了麻烦。我们拥有这些根深蒂固的民主机构。而现在我们都在疑虑谁会在计票上动手脚。所以俄罗斯根本没有这些东西。他们——普京在操纵他的选举方面非常在行。所以，不，你会面临——

所以，他死了。行吧。怎么去理解这件事？把他想象成一棵家谱树。恶人老弗拉德在最顶层，或者说他有点像个黑手党教父，然后在他下面有他的顾问，对吧？然后顾问下面又有他们的顾问。所以，存在着整个庞大的网络。因此，当你——他一死，他就不在了。然后就是这些家伙中的哪一个，或者是来自这边的某个人要来接班？而且你知道吗？他们自己也不知道，

英文原文

>> Give me a break. No, it's a free-for-all. Think about how do you have a democratic election? Uh you have all these institutions for how the votes are counted. And uh look at the United States. We're having trouble. We have these deeply embedded democratic institutions. And now we're wondering about who's going to be fiddling around with accounting. So Russia's got none of uh that. They're Putin's really good at doctoring his elections. So, no, you're going to have So, he dies. All right. How to think about this? Think of him like a family tree. There's Vlad the Bad up top or like he's sort of like a mafia dawn and then he has his concigliary underneath them, right? And then they've got their concigliary underneath them. And so, there's this whole network. So, when you he dies, he's gone. And then it's which one of these guys or is it someone from over here who's going to take over? And you know what? They don't know either,

对吧？而且这将是一场大规模的混战。现在我们有了很多接受过军事训练的俄罗斯人，以前可不是这种情况。他们会站在谁那一队？

英文原文

>> right? And it's a massive freefor-all. And now we got a lot of Russians with military training, which wasn't the case before. And whom are they going to line up with?

所以就某种程度而言，可能会爆发一点内战……

英文原文

>> So there might be a bit of a civil war in terms

有可能，不得而知。但这所意味着的是极大的不稳定，然后这就是个矮胖子跌下墙头（Humpty Dumpty）难以收拾的局面。需要好一阵子才能

英文原文

>> possible, unknown. But what it means is profound instability for and then it's a Humpty Dumpty situation. It takes a while to

重新把矮胖子（Humpty Dumpty）拼凑起来。这就是我对这些独裁政权的看法，取决于破碎得有多严重，重新拼合需要更长时间，但我姑且随口说个数字，比如十年。所以，民主阵营应该为各种独裁者死后制定计划。这就是为什么要有战备预案。你把它们搁在书架上，以便当不可预见的事件终于在那个你从不知道的日子发生时，你至少有了一些先前的思考，然后你就有了一个像初稿一样可以着手调整的东西。但我们应该从这些方面去思考。情况可能会更糟，比如别人可能会趁虚而入。那就更严重了。

英文原文

put Humpty Dumpty back together again. That's where I think in terms of these dictatorships, depending how bad the shatter is, it'll take longer to put it together, but I'm going to make up a number and say 10 years. So, the de democratic corps should have a plan for when various dictators die. It's why you have a war pen. You just have them on the shelf so that when the unexpected event finally happens on the day you never knew, you've got at least some previous thinking and then you have got something to start like a first draft where you adjust it. But we ought to be thinking in these terms. It could be worse as in someone else could go in there. That that's even more.

噢，你可能会面临核武器失控（loose nukes）。那就是在苏联解体时的恐惧，全都是这些失控核武器，而那是乌克兰被剥离核武器的原因之一，乌克兰之所以愿意被拿走，是因为我们承诺过保护他们，但我们打破了那个承诺。这是个问题，因为如果你想成为街区上的霸主，如果你的承诺毫无意义，我是说，这就是特朗普对乌克兰缺乏筹码的地方，因为他们知道他出卖了他们，而且他总是会出卖他们。这就像是意味着他对他们毫无筹码。

英文原文

>> Oh, you could have loose nukes. That was the the fear at the break up of the Soviet Union as all these loose nukes and that was one of the reasons they were taken away from Ukraine and Ukraine was willing to have it taken away because we promised to protect them and we broke that promise. That's a problem because if you want to be a big boy on the block, if your promises mean nothing, I mean, this is where uh Trump's having trouble with leverage over Ukraine since they know that he's uh he's sold them out and he's always going to sell them out. It's like it means he has no leverage over them.

一切就完了。

回到你关于权力的评论，最优秀的策略、那些真正奏效的策略是双赢的。这样你从中得到一些东西，我从中得到一些东西。所以，我们当然会去做。这也是为什么海洋秩序是强大的。如果是双赢，大家就能很好地协同合作。你看看欧洲，他们一直在——每个国家都在掏钱去援助乌克兰，一个接一个，有时是一起。

英文原文

>> It's over.

It was back to your comment about power that um the best strategies, the ones that really work are win-win. So that you get something out of it, I get something out of it. So, of course, we'll do it. And that's why the uh maritime order is strong. If it's a win-win, everyone plays well together. And you look at Europe, they've been each country's been pwning up to help Ukraine and one at a time and sometimes together.

海洋秩序与制度建设

目前世界上正在发生的最重要、而我们还没谈论的事情是什么？萨拉·佩恩（Dr. Sarah Paine）博士，

英文原文

>> What is the most important thing that's happening in the world at the moment that we haven't talked about? Dr. Sarah Pay,

战争是负和的。它们极快地摧毁财富。

唯一的无限博弈正和世界秩序是海洋秩序。它是海洋性的，因为什么？世界上90%的贸易都是通过这些海洋进行的。这就是世界最初连接一切的网络，也就是这些海洋，对吧？

一艘集装箱船可以装载21,000个集装箱，而一列“突突”火车，我不知道，运气好的话能装600个集装箱。是的，这是运输物资的高效方式。尽管国际机构存在种种缺陷，但它们是避免这种情况切实可行的手段。如果你陷入这种情况，一切就都完了。所以，与其如此，不如建立机构；如果你无法通过改革联合国来使它变得更好，那你就创建一个平行机构，然后你的政府逐渐表示：“嘿，我们不再保留在纽约市的办事处了。我们要搬到这个新机构去了。”好吧。

你们关心维吾尔人。这是中国在实行种族灭绝。当习近平在2012年上台时，到了次年，他召集他的苏联问题专家说，那么究竟发生了什么？因为中国共产党最不希望的，就是步苏联共产党的后尘。而专家告诉他的是，苏联是按民族原则组织起来的。俄罗斯人过去一直的做法是，在这些地方的每个地方以及其中的部委之类都有一名俄罗斯人负责，但二把手则是象征性的二把手。然后他们会资助各种字典、乌兹别克语言，你可以跳你的民族舞蹈、搞你的刺绣等等。在苏联维持维系期间，这看起来很棒。但当它瓦解时，这意味着它很容易沿着这些民族界线分崩离析。

而习近平，我推测这解释了他对所有穆斯林的灭绝行径。对于维吾尔人，他所做的就是把男人关进集中营，把孩子们送去这个国家过去对待美洲原住民儿童时所做的那种地方。这太可怕了。把他们置于这些学校之下，你在那里建立——这是文化灭绝。你在把他们培养成类似名誉白人那样的人。所以他们正在把这些孩子培养成名誉汉人。至于妇女，我不知道，白奴贸易还是别的什么，因为中国面临着育龄妇女短缺。

英文原文

>> wars are negative some. They destroy wealth incredibly rapidly.

The only infinite game positive sum world order is a maritime. It's maritime because what is it? 90% of the world's trade goes by these oceans. This is how you the world's original network that reaches everything or these seas, right? Uh containership will take 21,000 containers whereas a tutu train I don't know 600 if you're containers if you're lucky. Yeah. this is the efficient way to get things around. As flawed as international institutions are, um they are the feasible thing that avoid this. If you get into this, it's all over. So, better to build institutions and if you can't reform the UN to make it better, then you create a parallel institution and then your government gradually says, "Hey, we're not no longer doing the office in New York City. We're moving to whatever this new one is." All right.

You care about Weaguers. This is uh the Chinese practicing genocide. When Xiinping came to power in 2012. Uh by the next year he was summoning his experts on the Soviet Union said well what happened? Because the last thing the Communist Party of China wanted is to go the way of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. And what they told him is that the Soviet Union had been organized on the basis of ethnicity. And what the Russians had always had a Russian who ran each of these places and the ministries and things within them, but then the number two would be the token number two. And then they would sponsor all kinds of dictionaries and the USBC language and you could do your folk dances and your embroidery and all that stuff. And while the Soviet Union was holding it together, it looked great. But when it shattered, it meant it was really easy for it to shatter on these ethnic lines.

And Xiin Ping, I suspect that explains his genocide of all the Muslims. And then the Weaguers, what he's done is he's put the men into concentration camps, the children into what this country used to do to Native American children. It's terrible. Putting them under these schools where you're you're creating it's it's cultural genocide. You're bringing them up to be like honorary white people. And so they're bringing up these kids to be honorary Han. And then the women, I don't know, white slavery, whatever it is, uh cuz China's got a shortage of women of childbearing age.

你写了那么多绝妙的著作。我这里就有好几本。我会在网上把大家引向你的讲座，网上的完整讲座。所以，如果你现在正在收听，你可以在下方看到萨拉完整讲座的链接，一共14讲。

英文原文

>> You've written so many fantastic books. I've got several of them here. I'm going to link everybody to your lectures um online, the full length lectures online. So, if you're listening right now, you can see a link below to Sarah's full length lectures or 14 of them.

不，一共有七讲。嗯，网上还有人们发布的其他内容。应该是萨拉·佩恩系列讲座。你可以看到顶部的标志。它们有这样一种外观。它们从第0讲开始，然后是1、2、3、4、5、6、7，接着还有一个终篇。所以总共有九讲。

英文原文

>> No, there's seven. Well, there are other things that people have posted. It would be the Sarah Payne lecture series. And you can see the logos on top. They have this kind of look to them. And they start with zero and then they go 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 and then there's finale. So there are nine total.

身为一个拥有——

英文原文

>> What an interesting time to be someone who has

你的经历和教育背景的人，这是多么有趣的时代。那是什么感觉？我是说，你研究了数字化生活，而现在它成了谈话的主题。

英文原文

>> your experience in education. How does that feel? I mean you studied digital life and now it's the topic of conversation.

嗯，当我还比你小一点的时候，我想着我要去了解俄罗斯和中国。这会花我很多时间。

英文原文

>> Well when I was a little younger than you, I thought I want to learn about Russia and China. It'll take me a long time.

你为什么会走上这条路？

英文原文

>> Why did you come?

噢，因为我出生在57年。那是“人造卫星”（Sputnik）升空的那一年。而且——

英文原文

>> Oh, because I'm born in 57. That's the year Sputnik went up. And

人造卫星是——

英文原文

>> Sputnik being

是的，这颗人造卫星，俄罗斯人把一只小狗放了上去，踏上了一趟单程之旅。他们把莱卡（Laika）送上了太空。美国被吓坏了，因为这意味着俄罗斯人最终可能会拥有冲着我们而来的弹道导弹。而我们在所有那些方面都落后了。冷战就在那时开始。所以你可以争论，你可以选定你认为冷战高峰期的年份，但那一年可能是其中之一。所以我出生在这一年。我在一个人人都谈论俄罗斯是邪恶帝国的环境里长大，对此感到好奇；小时候成长在越南战争时期，然后目睹了那场战争以糟糕的结局收场，我想，好吧，我想对此了解更多。

英文原文

>> Yeah. this um satellite where the Russians put a little dog who was on a one-way trip. They sent Leica up there. And uh and the United States was terrified because this meant that the Russians could eventually have ballistic missiles coming after us. And we were behind on all of that. And that's when the Cold War. So you could argue, you can pick your year when you think the height of the Cold War would be, but that might be one of them. So that's the year I'm born. And I grew up where everyone's talking about Russia being the evil empire and curious about that and growing up as a little kid during the Vietnam War and then uh watching that unfold poorly and I thought, well, I want to learn more about this.

尾声与终问

萨拉·佩恩博士，我们这个播客有一个收尾传统，由上一位嘉宾在不知道留给谁的情况下为下一位留下一个问题。

英文原文

>> Dr. Sarah Pane, we have a closing tradition on this podcast where the last guest leaves a question for the next not knowing who they're leaving it for.

噢，不。

英文原文

>> Oh no.

留给你的问题是：什么会让你动感情？

英文原文

>> And the question left for you is, what makes you emotional?

什么会让我动感情？

英文原文

>> What makes me emotional?

悲伤。

看着悲伤。看着他人在受苦，看着孩子们在受苦。

凭什么让他们受苦？

我们这些成年人却愿意让大量的儿童去受苦。

比如回到共和党人身上。你们需要为了后代把事情为孩子们办得更好。

即便你们输掉下一次选举。做正确的事。这早就该做了。

不要去支持大陆主义者。

而我会一遍又一遍地强调。

有什么比后代更重要？

没有。

所以为他们做点事情，而不是搞政治诈骗。

英文原文

>> Sorrow.

Watching sorrow. Watching other people suffering, watching children suffering. Why should they? We have adults that are willing to allow tremendous numbers of children to suffer.

Like go back to the Republicans. You need to make it better for children for the generations that follow. So you lose the next election. Do the right thing. It's past due. Don't support continentalists. And I'll say it over and over again. What is more important than the generations that follow? Nothing. So do something for them instead of grifting.

萨拉·佩恩博士，非常感谢你。

英文原文

>> Dr. Sarah Bane, thank you so much.

感谢你邀请我。YouTube推出了这种疯狂的新算法，基于人工智能和你的所有观看行为，它们确切地知道你接下来想看什么视频。算法说这个视频对你来说是完美的视频。对现在正在收看的每个人来说都是不同的。快看看这个视频，我敢打赌你可能会喜欢它。

英文原文

>> Thank you for having me. YouTube have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior. And the algorithm says that this video is the perfect video for you. It's different for everybody looking right now. Check this video out and I bet you, you might love it.