EQT CEO与知名投资人探讨卓越公司的定义、长期投资与私有化趋势 Norges Bank Investment Management 2025-05-02

开场与卓越公司的定义

主持人: 现在,我邀请EQT(欧洲领先的私募股权投资公司)的首席执行官Christian Sinding加入我们。在他的领导下,EQT的规模扩大了四倍,成为瑞典第四大上市公司,也是私募市场中领先的、具有前瞻性思维的组织。欢迎,Christian。

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I'd now like to invite Christian Syninding, CEO of EQT to join us. Under his leadership, EQT has quadrupled in size, became Sweden's fourth largest listed company and a leading forwardinking organization in private markets. Welcome, Christian.

Christian Sinding: 谢谢。很高兴来到这里。

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Thank you. Good to be here.

主持人: Christian,对EQT来说,是什么定义了一家真正伟大的公司?

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So Christian, what defines a truly great company for EQT?

Christian Sinding: 我会说这是今年最受欢迎的问题。实际上很有趣,我对我那些被称为EQT顶级投资者的同事们做了一项调查,结果非常一致地归结为三个不同的类别。

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It's the favorite question uh of the year I would say. Uh so interesting actually that I did a poll of uh of my colleagues uh the call the top investors at EQT and um and it came out very consistently actually into three three different categories.

第一个类别与公司所处的行业或领域有关。随着时间的推移,我们已经明确了要寻找社会中不一定依赖经济活动,而是依赖其他驱动因素的长期主题,例如社会的数字化(Digitalization: 将信息和业务流程转换为数字形式的过程)、脱碳化(Decarbonization: 减少或消除碳排放的过程)、老龄化社会等,这些都是将长期运行的广泛主题。在这背后,基础设施实际上是恰如其分的。

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Um the first one has to do with the industry or the sector that the the company is in. And uh what we've sharpened over time is is to find long-term themes in society that are not dependent necessarily on the economic activity but on some other drivers like digitalization of society, decarbonization of society, aging society, those kinds of broad themes that are uh you know going to run for a long long time. uh behind that infrastructure actually is spoton in there.

然后是公司本身,我们寻找拥有出色商业模式的公司,它们以某种形式拥有经常性收入(Recurring Revenues: 持续稳定产生的收入),某种竞争护城河(Competitive Moat: 公司相对于竞争对手的长期可持续竞争优势),如果你愿意这样称呼的话,也就是竞争优势,以及可以持续发展的东西,它有大量的机会通过有机增长、收购和变革来发展。这是第一类。

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Um then you go to the company uh and we're looking for companies that have a great business model uh recurring revenues in some form some kind of competitive moat if you want to call it that to use your language um competitive advantage uh and something you can continue to build on um that has lots of opportunities to grow both organically through acquisitions and change. That's kind of category number one.

领导力与未来验证

第二类是领导力。有几位同事说“首席执行官、首席执行官、首席执行官”。当然,我们拥有并控制这些公司,所以我们可以任命董事会,如果公司还没有优秀的管理层,我们也可以任命管理层。但我认为这比首席执行官的范围更广。我认为它指的是领导团队,是公司的组织设计,是企业文化健康状况。今天早些时候我们听到了很多关于这些事情的讨论。

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Cate category number two is um leadership. So a couple of colleagues said CEO CEO CEO. Uh and um and of course we own the companies, we control the company. So we can install the board, we can install uh the management if if it doesn't already have a great one. But I think it's broader than CEO. I think it's the leadership group. It's the uh it's the organizational design of the company. It's a cultural health. We we heard a lot about these things earlier today.

你知道,正如他们所说,“文化胜过战略”,我想我们从David和其他人那里听到了这一点,这对于EQT来说非常真实。所以这是第二类,也许还包括吸引和留住人才的能力。

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um you know culture beats strategy for breakfast as they say and I think we heard that from David and others uh very much true for EQT uh so that's kind of that's category number two maybe also ability to attract and retain talent very important category three is we also heard about from Otis and others um and even over Nordisk it's actually the ability to take you know the position that you're in the strategies that you have the leadership group that you have and execute relentlessly um and drive you know a culture of continuous improvement.

第三个非常重要的类别是,我们从Otis和其他人那里,甚至从Nordisk那里也听到了,那就是能够利用你所处的地位、你拥有的战略、你拥有的领导团队,并坚定不移地执行,推动持续改进的文化。所以仅仅成为一个有远见、伟大的首席执行官或拥有一支优秀的团队是不够的。你还需要每天推动执行。如果你想想我们今天早上听到的四家公司,你会发现这些主题以各种形式贯穿其中,对吧?

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So it's not good enough just to be a visionary, great CEO or have a great team. You also actually you know to drive execution every single day. Um and if you think about the four companies that we heard about this morning uh you find those themes across all of them in in various forms, right?

主持人: 是的。听起来他们对领导力的重视程度比Chris在他的方法中更高。你在首席执行官和领导团队中寻找什么?

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Yeah. It sounds like they put a bit more emphasis on leadership than Chris does in his approach. What are you looking for in a CEO and in the leadership team?

Christian Sinding: 我寻找的是有远见的人。不一定非得是远见家(Visionary: 具有非凡洞察力和预见未来能力的人),但必须是真正有远见的人。我们要把公司带向何方,为什么?他要能把人们团结在一起,能激励人心,但也要足够敏锐地执行。所以,结合我刚才谈到的这两个要素,我认为还有改变主意的能力,如果出现更好的论点的话。

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Uh I'm looking for someone who has a vision. Doesn't have to be vision area, but someone who has a real vision. Where are we taking the company and why? Um someone who can bring people together uh who can inspire uh but also be sharp enough to execute. So combining those two elements I just talked about um I think uh the ability also to to change your mind if a better argument comes uh and have this mindset you talked a little bit earlier about how do you deal with technological change and threats um and to have the mindset of we we call it a future proofing what does the company need to stay ahead of the curve what threats are coming what opportunities are coming right now it's AI then it'll be AGI and then maybe quantum computing whatever all these things are impacting business, sustainability, decarbonization, all these, you know, how do you deal with that? Do you wait to see what happens or do you take the bull by the horns and actually drive change? Mhm. Uh those are some of the elements that we're looking for. Um and then not complicating things too much. Mhm. Sticking to what's important. Mhm.

还要有这种心态,你之前谈到如何应对技术变革和威胁,要有一种我们称之为“未来验证”的心态:公司需要什么才能保持领先地位?有哪些威胁正在到来?有哪些机会正在到来?现在是AI(Artificial Intelligence: 人工智能),然后是AGI(Artificial General Intelligence: 通用人工智能),然后可能是量子计算(Quantum Computing: 利用量子力学现象进行计算的新型计算模式),所有这些事物都在影响商业、可持续性、脱碳化等等。你如何应对这些?你是等待观望,还是抓住机遇,积极推动变革?这些是我们正在寻找的一些要素。然后,不要把事情搞得太复杂,坚持重要的。

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And have this mindset you talked a little bit earlier about how do you deal with technological change and threats um and to have the mindset of we we call it a future proofing what does the company need to stay ahead of the curve what threats are coming what opportunities are coming right now it's AI then it'll be AGI and then maybe quantum computing whatever all these things are impacting business, sustainability, decarbonization, all these, you know, how do you deal with that? Do you wait to see what happens or do you take the bull by the horns and actually drive change? Mhm. Uh those are some of the elements that we're looking for. Um and then not complicating things too much. Mhm. Sticking to what's important. Mhm.

长期投资的价值与私有市场优势

主持人: 你提到了长期主题。Chris,Christian这种投资于长期结构性主题的方法,你是否认同?

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You mentioned long-term themes. Chris, is this approach that Christian takes on investing in long-term structured themes something that resonates with you?

Sir Christopher Hohn: 是的。我们当前投资组合的平均持有期是80年。而美国股票的平均持有期不到一年。所以投资者们绝对是普遍的短期交易导向。

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Yeah. The the average life of a of a holding of our current portfolio is 80 years. Mhm. Now, the average holding for a of a US stock is less than one year. So investors are absolutely on mass short-term um trading oriented.

所以,你知道,我们应该问,为什么长期主义是一种好的策略?是的,为什么?我喜欢认为它是。是的。我们应该问为什么。我总是说要给出理由。是的,是的。如果你从经验上看,结果是最好的公司,那些高增长的公司,它们会一直保持优秀。它们通常不会一夜之间消失。是的。而糟糕的公司会一直糟糕。低谷会一直低迷。

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And so why you know it it but we should ask well why is long-termism is it a good strategy? Yeah. Is it why and why I'd like to think it is. Yeah. Well we should ask the question why. I always say justify. Yeah. Yeah. And if you look empirically, it turns out that the very best companies, high rises, they they stay good. They don't disappear o overnight generally. Yep. And bad companies stay bad. Lower stay low.

Christian Sinding: 我完全同意。我们有一种说法:好公司比看起来更好,坏公司比看起来更糟。这是一种持续性。

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I totally agree. We have an expression. Good companies are better than they seem. Bad companies are worse than they seem. There's persistency.

Sir Christopher Hohn: 最好是摆脱那些坏公司,只加倍投资那些好公司。是的,存在持续性,而且一家公司的价值只有在长期才能体现出来。所以,他们说金融领域没有免费的午餐,但实际上我确实认为,在一家伟大的公司中实行长期主义就是免费的午餐,因为如果你看任何卖方模型(Sellside Model: 投资银行或经纪公司分析师为客户提供的研究报告和估值模型),它们只会预测三年或两年。这就是为什么,因为那是典型的买方投资者(Buyside Investor: 代表机构或个人进行投资的基金经理或投资者)的时间范围,一两年或两三年。但如果它能持续优秀30年呢?那么你完全低估了那家公司。

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It's better. You got to get rid of the bad ones and just double down on the good ones. Yeah, there's persistency and and the value of that company is only seen over the long term. So you get they say there's no free lunch in finance, but actually I do think long-termism in a great company is a free lunch because the the if you look at any sellside model, they'll go out three years if if or or two years. And that's why because that's the time horizon of the typical buy side investor. One, two, or three, one or two years. But what if it can keep being good for 30 years? Then you're completely undervaluing that company.

你知道,我们,嗯,人们不关注它,因为大多数公司,95%都是平庸或糟糕的公司。是的。它们达到了资本成本,但它们不是超级公司。

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We, you know, we um and and people don't look at it because there aren't most companies 95% of mediocre or bad companies. Yeah. And they meet their cost of capital, but they're not super companies.

你知道,我提到的一家公司,航空航天领域的赛峰集团(Safran: 法国一家大型跨国航空航天和国防公司),我们投资了它。我们已经持有它13年了,我们实际上是该公司最大的投资者之一。而且,嗯,我们在这13年里获得了超过20%的IRR(Internal Rate of Return: 内部收益率,衡量投资项目盈利能力的指标)。这是一个很长的持有期。

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you know, one of the companies I mentioned, aerospace, we invested in Saffron. We've owned it for 13 years now and in in in we're actually one of the largest investors in the company. And uh um and we made around more than a 20% IR for 13 years. It's a long period that duration. Very long. Yeah. Very long period. What company was that? Saffron. Mhm. Yeah. They're a joint venture with G Aerospace in aircraft engines and um and so um we have investors who come in and say well we want new things.

主持人: 非常长。是的。非常长的时期。那是哪家公司?

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Very long. Yeah. Very long period. What company was that?

Sir Christopher Hohn: 赛峰集团。是的。他们与GE航空(GE Aerospace: 通用电气公司旗下的航空发动机制造商)在飞机发动机领域有一个合资企业。所以,嗯,我们有投资者进来,说我们想要新的东西。

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Saffron. Mhm. Yeah. They're a joint venture with G Aerospace in aircraft engines and um and so um we have investors who come in and say well we want new things.

主持人: 是的。为什么投资者很难做到长期投资?我理解有商业压力,但他们一定认为新的更好。

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Yeah. Why is it so hard for investors to be long-term? I understand they're commercial pressures but there must be they think new is better. I think you volatility. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Christian Sinding: 你知道,我显然对私募市场(Private Markets: 指非公开交易的资产市场,如私募股权、私募债等)很感兴趣。私募市场的好处之一是,你某种程度上被迫进行长期投资。我们拥有公司,一次持有5到10年。现在,我们实际上开始持有更长时间,因为我们意识到,赢家需要持有更长时间才能真正从中获得最大的价值创造。但是,你某种程度上被迫进行长期投资,即使现在个人可以投资我们行业中的这些产品,它们本质上也是非常长期的。而且,你知道,我们的估值不像公开市场那样波动。你可以讨论为什么,但事实是,我们对它现在的价值不那么感兴趣。我们感兴趣的是公司本身的价值。你知道,当我们购买一家公司时,我们感兴趣的是它在五年或七年后的价值,以及我们在此期间可以对这家企业做些什么。是的。在极端情况下,我们甚至不太关心它今天的成本是多少。只要我们知道我们有高度的信心能够随着时间的推移将其提升到更高的水平。这实际上比我们今天支付100或110更重要。如果你以后能创造四五百或六百的价值,那真的不重要。

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You know one of the I'm obviously interested in the private markets. One of the benefits of the private market is you're kind of forced to invest for the long term. We own companies. We own them for 5 to 10 years at a time. Now, we're actually starting to own them for longer because we realize that winners need to be owned longer to really uh get the maximum value creation out of them as well. Um but uh but but you're kind of forced to invest for the long term and and even in these products that now individuals can invest in in our industry uh they're also very long-term in their nature and um you know our valuations aren't as volatile. You can discuss why but uh but it is because that we're not that interested in what it's worth right now. We're interested in what the companies are worth. You know when we buy a company we're interested in what it's worth in five years or in seven years and what we can do with that business in the meantime. Yeah. And in the extreme, we don't even care what it costs so much today. As long as we know that we can take it to here or we're highly confident we can do that with time. That's that's actually more important than what we pay 100 or 110 today. Doesn't really matter if you create four or five or 600 up here later.

价值创造的策略与公私市场辩论

主持人: 那么你如何做到这一点?你识别出一家你想购买的公司,支付一个你乐意支付的价格。是的。然后价值创造的策略是什么?

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So how do you do that? You identify a company that you want to buy. Y pay a price that you're happy to pay. Yeah. And then what's the playbook to create the value?

Christian Sinding: 嗯,我们正在尝试工业化(Industrialize: 使生产或流程标准化、规模化)的策略是,我们为企业制定一个全面潜力计划(Full Potential Plan: 一种战略规划,旨在识别并实现公司在所有方面(如增长、效率、创新)的最大价值)。我们有点像在梦想,如果这家公司拥有世界上所有的资源,能够成长、发展并达到下一个水平,它会是什么样子?你知道,如果你做了所有你想做的并购(M&A: Mergers and Acquisitions,并购,指公司之间通过合并或收购实现资源整合和业务扩张的活动),所有的创新,摆脱那些不起作用的东西,升级组织,提高利润率,所有这些事情。好的,那是全面潜力,我们实际上能在合理的时间内,与我们全球或公司内部或任何地方的人员一起完成什么?我们为公司带来大量的资源,无论是治理、IT技能、AI技能、可持续发展技能、扩张还是并购,无论公司需要什么,我们都会尝试带来这些资源,然后我们非常努力地踩下油门,我们全力以赴。我们通常不会实现全面潜力计划,但这种心态有助于推动公司前进。而且,嗯,而且真正决定哪些是重要的事情,有点像我们之前听到的诺和诺德公司。哪些是真正能带来改变的重大举措?然后确保你投入最优秀的人才、足够的资本来支持这些事情。这就是我们能在私募市场做的事情,这很有趣。

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Well, the the playbook that we're trying to industrialize is is we create a full potential plan for the business. We kind of dream say if this company had every resource in the world uh to be able to grow develop and go to the next level uh h how what could it look like you know if you did all the M&A you wanted to do all the innovation uh you get rid of the things that aren't working upgrade the organization improve the margins all that kind of stuff um okay so that's the full potential uh what can we actually get done in in a reasonable time period with the people that we have involved either globally or in the company or whatever um we bring lots of resources it for the company whether it's governance or IT skills or AI skills or sustainability skills or expansion or M&A whatever the company needs we try to bring those resources in uh and and then we push the gas pedal pretty hard and and and we go for it and we very often don't meet the full potential plan but that kind of mindset helps you drive the company forward um and uh and and really and also really deciding which are the big things a little bit like Nova Nordics Nord Nordics we heard earlier um what are the big initiatives that can really make a difference and then making sure that you put the best people behind that enough capital behind it and those things that's that's what we can do in the in the private markets and it's a lot of fun.

作为一名激进投资者(Activist Investor: 通过购买公司大量股份,试图影响公司管理层决策以提升股东价值的投资者),你在公开市场能做些什么?你的方法也随着时间有所演变。

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What can you do in the public market as an activist and your approach has evolved a little bit over time yeah

Sir Christopher Hohn: 是的,这是一个有趣的辩论,关于私有市场与公开市场。你知道,嗯,因为我确实认为世界上最好的公司是上市公司。嗯,不是所有,但通常是这样,其中一个原因是,在许多行业中,规模和范围很重要。小并不美。

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it's an interesting debate private versus public um and you know what, um um because I do think the very best companies in the world are public companies. Mhm. Um not everyone but generally and one of the reasons is um in many industries scale and scope matter. Small is not beautiful.

嗯,一个例子是视频会议,Zoom这个新的创新者推出了视频会议,而微软推出了Teams(Microsoft Teams: 微软公司推出的一款基于聊天的协作平台),并将其作为免费集成到他们的捆绑Office产品中。现在人们说Zoom是更好的产品,但微软赢了,因为他们有这种捆绑策略,他们有范围。他们有,你知道,范围的优势,以及,嗯,能力,你知道,客户关系等等。所以我认为人们有时低估了这些大公司、这些现有企业的力量,它们能够击垮竞争对手。所以,我,嗯,但公开市场投资者并非没有影响力。好的?如果他们愿意,他们可以施加影响,有时可以阻止愚蠢的事情。

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Um a and um you you you um um an example of this is uh um video conferencing where Zoom new innovator brought out video conferencing and Microsoft launched teams and just distributed a free integrated in in in in their bundled office product. Now people say Zoom was a better product, but Microsoft won because they had this bundling strategy and they had scope. They had, you know, advantages of scope and and Yeah. and and and and uh the ability, you know, customer relationships and and and so I think people underestimate sometimes these powers of big companies of incumbency to uh crush a competitor and and uh so I um um the but the a public market investor doesn't have no influence. Okay? if they're willing, they can uh they can influence and sometimes um stopping stupid things.

举个赛峰集团的例子,你知道,我们有这家伟大的公司,报告了八倍的收益,它以20%的速度复合增长,然后有一天他们出来,试图进行一次极其愚蠢的收购,收购一家名为Zodiac(卓达集团: 法国一家航空航天设备制造商)的公司,以极高的估值,使用其内在价值一半的股票。所以这简直是双重糟糕。嗯,我们反对这项交易,最终他们将价格削减了一半,然后只用现金支付,股价翻了一番。你知道,我们被卖家起诉了。我个人被起诉了1亿欧元,嗯,我的首席财务官有一天晚上非常紧张地来找我,说你没事,你付得起,但他们会让我破产。因为卖家损失了10亿欧元,嗯,但是很少有投资者会那样做。是的。大多数人只是接受。但最终他们削减了价格,并把责任归咎于我们,这没关系。嗯,结果是好的。他们再也没有做过愚蠢的事情。

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a and an example of saffron you know we had this great company reported eight times earnings it was compounding at 20% and then one day they came out and tried to make an incredibly stupid acquisition of a company called Zodiac a wild over valuation using shares which were half their intrinsic value. So it was doubly bad. Um and we fought the deal and in the end they cut the price in half and then paid only in cash and the share price doubled. You know we got sued by the seller. I was sued personally for hund00 million euros and the uh my CFO came to me very stressed one night saying it's all right for you. You can afford it but they're going to bankrupt me and um because the seller lost a billion euros and uh and but few investors will act like that. Mhm. Yeah. Most just accept it. But in the end they they they they cut the price and blamed us which was fine. and uh and all's well that ends well. They they they never did silly things again.

Christian Sinding: 嗯,但那时你必须介入。你必须拥有足够大的股权才能真正拥有那种影响力,不是吗?以某种形式,或者至少有一个他们会听的真正声音。如果我可以挑战一下,公开市场的挑战在于,公司往往由管理层运营,对吧?因为最终,在没有积极股东的情况下,他们实际上任命了董事会,你就会出现一些公司治理(Governance: 管理层、董事会、股东及其他利益相关者之间的一套关系,旨在确保公司有效运营并实现其目标)问题,这是一个巨大的风险。硬币的另一面是,这是一个巨大的风险,总的来说,嗯,也许可以说,有很多公司治理不善的公司,它们运营得很糟糕。你知道,我不相信在一个糟糕的行业或糟糕的公司中成为激进投资者,那没有任何意义。

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Um but but then you have to jump in. You you have to have a big enough ownership stake to to actually have that influence, don't you? In some form or at least a real voice that they uh that they will listen to. And the challenge in the public markets, if I may challenge that, is that often the companies become run by the the management, right? because they're ultimately ones then with with no active shareholders they effectively point the board and you you have a bit of a governance that's a big risk other side of the coin it's a big risk and in general well I would maybe the journal is there are many companies with bad governance that become badly run and I'm you know I'm not a believer in being an activist in a bad industry or bad company that doesn't make any sense but um and

Sir Christopher Hohn: 所以,但我实际上不认为股权必然是全部。它可以很重要。我们最近加入了Snell(Snell: 一家电信基础设施公司)的董事会,这是一家手机信号塔公司,我们拥有10%的股份,所以这很重要,因为有四家股东各拥有10%,所以非常集中。但是,嗯,我认为论证的力量可以取胜。你知道,股东并不愚蠢。你知道,银行不会自己成为激进投资者,但如果一个激进投资者提出了一个好的案例,他们会支持他们。是的,他们会支持他们,无论激进投资者拥有1%还是2%的股份,这都不重要。

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So, but there is a I don't actually think the shareholding necessarily is everything can matter. We we went recently on the board of a company called Snell next cell phone towers and we we had 10% and so it mattered because there were four comp four shareholders with 10% each and so it was very concentrated but um I think the power of the argument can win you know shareholders are not stupid you know bank is not going to be an activist themselves but if an activist makes a good case they'll support them yeah they'll they'll support them whatever stake the activist has 1% 2% it doesn't matter.

私有化趋势与控制权的代价

Christian Sinding: 所以我,我。我们能回到你说的“最好的公司是上市公司”这个说法吗?我不太认同这个观点。所以也许我举一些例子。你知道,我们,但我确实同意你的观点,拥有那些,你知道,强大、大型、获胜、击败竞争对手的公司,无论如何。其中一个非常有趣的是我们拥有的一家公司,它是世界上最大的私立教育公司。这是一家150亿美元的公司。它,嗯,但它在全球只有5%的市场份额,通过收购有机增长,超级有目标导向,对社会非常有益。嗯,而且,嗯,竞争对手是,你知道,世界各地的小型家族企业,它们没有资源投资AI和下一代教育等等。嗯,那是一家非常出色的公司。我们实际上已经让它上市了两次,但公开市场不欣赏它。所以,我们已经将其私有化了两次,现在我们只是希望尽可能长时间地保持其私有状态,并不断发展壮大。所以我认为世界也在改变,因为私募股权(Private Equity: 对非上市公司股权进行投资,或对上市公司进行杠杆收购使其退市的投资方式)现在变得如此庞大,嗯,而且我们可以将公司转移到更长期的所有权结构中。所以我认为我们将会看到越来越多的世界上最好的公司要么保持私有,要么私有化并成长。嗯,这是一个很大的区别,这也是我们在市场中看到的事情之一,而你听说过,你知道,上市公司的数量随着时间的推移正在大幅减少。

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So I I And can we go back can we go back to the this this statement that you had that the best companies are public. Um I don't really appreciate that one. Uh so maybe I give some examples. You know we but I do agree with you that having companies that are uh you know strong large winning beating the competition whatever. Uh one is a very interesting that we own which is the world's largest private education company. It's a $15 billion company. It's uh but it's only got 5% market share around the world, growing organically through acquisitions, super purpose-driven, doing very good for society. Um and uh the competitors are, you know, moms and pops all around the world that don't have the resources to invest in AI and the next generation of education and stuff like that. Um that is a brilliant uh company. We've actually had it public twice, but the public market didn't appreciate it. So, we've taken it private twice and now we're just going to keep it private hopefully for as long as we can and just build and build and build. So I think the world is also changing because private equity has gotten so large now um and t and we can move companies into longerterm ownership structures. So we can actually I think we're going to see more and more of the best companies in the world either stay private or go private and and grow. Um and that's a big difference and that's one of the things we're seeing in the market while you heard you know number of public companies is shrinking a lot over time.

主持人: 你提到了控制权的重要性。你尝试过在上市公司市场中采用私募股权方法,通过EQT listed。我希望我们没有时间谈那个。

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And you alluded to the importance of control. You tried an approach, a private equity approach in the listed market with the EQT listed. I hope we didn't have time for that one.

Christian Sinding: 一些关于经验教训的反思。是的,我们做到了。我们尝试启动一个你所做事情的迷你版本,但我们实际上惨败了。嗯,去年我们关闭了基金后,我们返还了大约90%的投资资本,或者比这稍差一点。嗯,幸运的是它非常小,当我们意识到我们不擅长时,我们确实关闭了它,嗯,专注于我们擅长的领域,那就是私募市场。嗯,我认为我们试图将你在这里听我思考和谈论的模型应用到公开环境中,而我们没有工具箱。我们不了解如何施加影响力。我们认为以我们的身份会有更大的影响力,嗯,但它没有奏效。所以,这真的是关于,这里面有很多很多教训。回到真正坚持自己的原则,做你擅长的事情,并且做得更多。

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Some reflections on lessons learned. Yeah, we did. We tried to start a mini version of what you do and we failed miserably actually. It um we you know after we shut the fund down last year, we we delivered back like 90% of the capital that was invested or something a little bit worse than that. And uh luckily it was very small and uh when we realized we weren't good at it, we actually did shut it down and uh focus on what we're good at which is private markets. Um I think we tried to apply the models that you've heard me think about here and talk about here uh in a public setting where we didn't have we didn't have the toolbox. We didn't have the understanding of how to drive influence. We thought we would have more impact being who we are and uh it didn't work. So, it's really about it's a it's a lot a lot of learnings in there. Back to really sticking to your guns and doing what you do well and more of that.

Sir Christopher Hohn: 就像所有事情一样,有利有弊,有支持和反对的论点,但在私募股权中,你为控制权付出了代价。你支付了溢价。是的。可能很大。

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There's like everything there's pros and cons, arguments for and against, but in private equity, you you you pay a price for control. You pay a premium. Yeah. Can be big. Mhm.

所以,所以,你知道,不要误解我的意思,控制权有很高的价值,它有价值,让我们说它有价值,但它值得40%吗?是的。或者你在竞争性拍卖中必须支付的任何溢价。你知道,在公开市场,每天都有报价。是的。你可以接受或拒绝。所以,嗯,我认为,嗯,所以我只是认为这一点很重要,入场价格很重要。

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So, so you know every don't get me wrong control has a high value has a value let's say it has a value but is it worth 40%. Yeah. Or whatever premium you have to pay in a competitive auction. You know in public markets there's an offer every day. Yep. You can take it or leave it. and and and so it's um um I think the the uh so I just think that that point is relevant entry price matters and yeah do you think do you think liquidity is overvalued in the markets

主持人: 是的,你认为市场中的流动性(Liquidity: 资产在不显著影响其价格的情况下,能够快速转换为现金的能力)被高估了吗?

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and yeah do you think do you think liquidity is overvalued in the markets

Christian Sinding: 嗯,问题是人们为什么需要流动性,就像他们一直认为他们需要的那样?你可能会犯错,这是我从黄页的例子中学到的。是的。如果你在私募市场犯了错,短期内就没有出路。是的。如果你在公开市场犯了错,你就有机会退出。

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well the thing is why why do people need liquidity as much as they think they do all the time you can be wrong that's something um I learned the yellow pages example was Yeah. And if you're and um the if if you're wrong in private, there's no way out. Yeah. In a short term. And um if you're wrong in a public, you have a chance to get out.

Sir Christopher Hohn: 是的。你有一个机会,但你没有真正有机会修复和改进你在私募市场所做的事情。

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Yeah. You have a you have a a chance, but you don't really have a chance to repair and improve what you do in private.

Christian Sinding: 对。我们可以集中精力,更换管理层,更换董事会,剥离表现不佳的业务。所以,这完全是一种不同的心态。

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Right. we can we can huddle down, change the management, change the board, divest underperforming operations. So, it's a it's a it's just a completely different mindset to to a point.

Sir Christopher Hohn: 是的。我们曾是美国有线电视公司的投资者。是的,我们拥有很多有线电视公司,Charter Communications(特许通讯公司: 美国一家大型有线电视和宽带服务提供商)和,嗯,在此之前是时代华纳有线(Time Warner Cable: 曾是美国第二大有线电视运营商)。它是一项伟大的投资,持续了八年。我们赚了,我知道,50亿美元的损益,我知道是五倍于我们的投资。但后来这个行业开始恶化。它变得饱和,竞争更加激烈,人们开始过度建设私募股权。是的。我们购买了很多这样的公司。所以它开始成为我们最好的行业之一,实际上,是的,我卖掉了。是的,因为它改变了。我们正在购买。是的。是的。

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Yeah. There there's um we were investors in cable. Yeah. In in the US and yeah, we own a lot of cable charter and uh communications and uh before that Time Warner Cabled and and it it was a great in investment for uh eight years. We made I know five billion a P&L and I know five times our money. But then the industry started to deteriorate. It became saturated and more competitive and people started overbuilding private equity. Yep. We bought we bought lots of those companies. So it started over one of our best sectors actually and yeah I sold. Yeah because it it changed. We were buying. Yeah. Yeah.

总结

主持人: 不幸的是,我们已经到了会议的尾声。我非常希望能继续更长时间。Chris,你分享了许多你的秘密。你与Nikolai录制的一个播客中分享了更多,该播客将于5月14日发布。所以我鼓励大家收听那个播客。我们现在休息一下。请大家在15:25回到这个房间。但首先,也是最重要的,非常感谢你们两位分享你们的见解并与我们见面。

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Unfortunately we are in the end of the session already. I would love to continue for much longer. Chris, you shared many of your secrets. You shared more in a podcast that you recorded with Nikolai which will be released on the 14th of May. So I encourage everyone to listen to that one. We'll take a break now. So please be back in this room at 15:25. But first and most importantly, a big big thanks to both of you for sharing your insights and to meet you. It was fun.

Christian Sinding: 很有趣。

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It was fun.

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关键字: leadership-strategy long-term-investing market private-equity valuation