All right, welcome back to another episode of the market close. Thank you everybody for being here. It is Wednesday, November 12th. We are getting into the end of the close after the bell. We got three earnings: DLO, Cisco, and another one that I can't think of. Oh, Serve Robotics. So, DLO, Serve Robotics, and Cisco. Those are three companies we'll look at. Let me know if anyone has a position in any of those three companies, but we will get to those after the bell.

We got some macro data, folks. We got a lot to talk about. Overall, what's going on today? It's a red day for sure, but it's a red day in specific names. The S&P 500 is green. 6833.6.

We're green on the S&P. I don't know necessarily why we're green. I have some theories about it, but the individual stocks that may be upsetting people like a Nebus that's down 7% or a Corey that's down 3% or a Palantir that's down 4%, a REN down 4%, Nvidia is kind of trying to break even to be honest. It was down 2%, now it's barely down 50 cents. None of that matters to the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is green.

The reason for this might be because JP Morgan is catching a bid today in the financial sector. JP Morgan up 2% on the day and Eli Lilly is trying to get to all-time highs. That's up 2.87%. I think the first thing to start off with on today is that this feels like a very very healthy move in a bull market. Even though Palantir is not going to the moon right now, to see some of that money go into a Lily or JP Morgan or just consumer defensive staples that is not a bad thing to see.

And the fact that we are actually going green on the S&P 500 while Nvidia is red is really proving to me, I mean we saw a little bit of this yesterday, but I think today is kind of doubling down on this idea that we are getting a rotation. That rotation is very healthy and normal and it is good to see other parts of the market begin to participate.

Having said that you do have some stocks that are getting hit today. Meta at 609 obviously getting wrecked 2.82%. All the data center plays are getting hit. Coreweave etc. I did buy a little bit of Nebius at 93.90. Did not buy a ton, but I bought a little. I also bought a little bit of Zeta at around 19.80. It's not a big position. I'll put out the one pager tomorrow on how I'm thinking about it. But very little bit a little bit of Zeta and that's just kind of like a tracking position in the portfolio and I'll do a lot more research in terms of what I'm seeing there. But Nebius was the dip buy at 93.90. I think we got all the way down to like 92 at one point, didn't really violate 92 and so if we close above 94 I think that would be very bullish again that's the technical spot where we need to hold.

But why is Nebius down, why is Coreweave down, why is Iren down? The reason all these names are down is because of, in my opinion, Oracle which is getting hit right now, down 4% on the day. This is the worst of the data center plays even though it's not necessarily just a data center play, it's more of a cloud computing play. But because they issued $40 billion of debt and the street's not liking the debt financing, that's probably why Meta's getting hit as well.

Now I was looking at some of Meta's details on the debt and It's very attractive and it makes sense why it would be attractive in terms of debt financing terms because it's freaking Meta and they have all the capital in the world along with Google to be able to get attractive terms. But Oracle does not and so I think the draw down we're seeing today in these data center plays which yes is annoying and yes it sucks, it also to me is probably part for the course when it comes to the rotation of this bull market. People selling off a Nebius, a Coreweave, an Iren, a Cipher and going into a JP Morgan or an Eli Lilly. So I don't think it's the craziest thing in the world but nonetheless that is happening.

Broel says healthy deep breath. Yes, we are getting a lot more breadth versus depth in this market. And quite frankly, for the past nine months, we've had a lot of depth when it comes to tech. It's time to get a little bit more breadth. And I think that's what we're seeing here today.

Now, one of the things that's not going to help the breadth or depth of this market is a lack of data. Here is what the White House had to say today about what's going to happen with this October data. The shutdown could end up decreasing fourth quarter economic growth by two whole percentage points. The Democrat shutdown made it extraordinarily difficult for economists, investors, and policy makers at the Federal Reserve to receive critical government data. The Democrats may have permanently damaged the Federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released. And all of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policy makers at the Fed flying blind at a critical period.

Now, that's not hurting Open Door. The reason Open Door is pumping, by the way, is because CAS just bought a million of stock at $8. That was officially disclosed and I think that's what's helping Open Door. Open door up 10% on the day. By the way, Oaklo also up 8%. So, you know, I'm talking about the breadth of the market and you got names like Meta and Palantir that are down on the day and then you have names like Oaklo and Open that are up on the day. Doesn't necessarily scream rational to me, but nonetheless, that is the state of what we have in this market.

Uh what does it mean for the government data? By the way, Bitcoin right here below 102. I think the October data is pretty bad, guys. You would not have the White House come out and say that the October data will never be released if the data was amazing. if we were adding, you know, hundreds of thousands of jobs or something like that, the market probably would want to see that data and the White House would not be afraid to show that data.

By the way, I think I showed you guys this stat in the morning, but private payrolls from the ADP came out and said that their new estimates are showing a decrease of 11,250 jobs per week in the month of October. That would be -45,000, the second largest drop since 2020. Goldman Sachs estimated that we would fall about 50,000 in the month of October. So obviously the labor market data is not looking the best. That is your bull case for the rate cut, but the White House not wanting to release it probably shows that it's not the best.

It also questions or makes you question the trustworthiness of the data going into November. And granted, maybe we haven't been tracking CPI and the jobless claims as well. And so we need another month to get it done. But if we're not going to get the most accurate data in November, it's just another kind of hiccup for the market to have to navigate, especially when, you know, the market's already feeling a little bit uneasy on some of the corporate debt financing and they might want a little more data to understand.

UNH, by the way, great day for UNH. We'll see after the bell if we get any of these super investor disclosures. We got a couple today. Nothing too crazy. I went through about four or five of them and I didn't see anything that really stood out. UNH, right, they're up 4% on the day again. Open Door is up on the day. Oaklo is up on the day. And then AMD having a great day. AMD was at 263, right now at 257, which is very nice to see. The Q's going green. 621, that's up. And the S&P 500 going green. I don't know how Robin Hood ended up green for the day, but Robin's up almost 2%. S&P 500 now breaking 684. And then you got Rocket Lab that was up 7% and it's down 1%. Again, very kind of wonky market reaction in a variety of different ways, but I think the overall trend at its core is that you're seeing a rotation. And I don't think that rotation is horrible.

So, by the way, 32. I don't think SoFi's ever closed above 32. Got to 32.70 today. Would be very nice to see if SoFi can get that close above 32. Microsoft is well back to 511. So, we got about 7 minutes left. And if we can get that closed, that would be very nice.

Okay, poll in the chat. So, there's only three stocks on earnings today. DLO, Serve, and um Cisco. I'll put which one do you think outperforms? Let me know which positions you guys have. DLO is more of a retail favorite if I'm not wrong. Um, which one outperforms? DLO. ESB does have earnings, but I don't think we're going to get anything specific from ESB other than more disclosures of their ETH holdings.

Um, Serve, I've actually seen so many times they make the robots for the the Uber Eats and stuff, like the things that automatically or autonomously deliver you the food. uh don't know enough about their financials, but you have serve, you have Cisco, and then DLO. Cisco obviously a massive player in networking, especially with data centers. Wow, Cisco up 3% on the day. Look at that. Street's expecting a little bit of love off of Cisco, and we're going to see what that looks like.

Open door right here up 9%. UNH up 4%, AMD up 8.6, Zeta up 3.28%. I did a really good deep dive in my opinion with Ronnie. So, if anyone wants to listen to that, it's on my Twitter spaces and I think he made a pretty compelling case. So, uh, for anyone to check that out, the main reason I bought a little bit today is just because valuation looks very compelling in a market that is a bit more expensive. And so, the growth estimates on top of the valuation to me made it at least worthy of a starter position.

Nebius right there 94.68. Again, I did buy the dip at 93.90. Uh, closing above 94 would be super bullish to see if we can reverse a little bit of the downtrend. But you do have a red Nebius on the day. PayPal that's down half a percent. Xpeng's down a little bit. Grab's down 1%. Sea Limited that's up a little bit. And then Ethereum right there at 3,400.

I did not buy the dip on Meta today. Meta looks like it wants to go below 600. I don't know if we'll get there. The fact that Meta is back to levels that we saw on Friday, not fully, right? We on Friday we saw like 600. Right now we're at 608. But the fact that the market's up and Meta is actually trying to get back to that level is quite incredible. It means the street is just not messing with the Meta narrative right now. And again, I think part of the reason is because of what's going on with corporate debt.

By the way, real quick before we talk about Burry because there's a big update on Michael Burry. Uh, take a look at this chart right here. This is Oracle stock versus Oracle credit default swaps. The credit default swap is the protection against their corporate debt defaulting. The stock price, as you can obviously see, has been going down. So you have a level of alignment between investors thinking, hey, maybe we want to be a bit more cautioned around the debt that Oracle is taking out versus, you know, just saying that the stock's going to go to the moon because they're going to get this amazing ROIC on all the invested capital in regards to data centers.

I think that the stock price action is clearly telling you not that it's bearish that Oracle is doing this, but that the market's not willing to give it a $350 price target, which again, Nebius is not at 130, Coreweave's not at 150, but they're at 80-95, Oracle at 226. I just don't think that's the craziest thing in the world, especially if the trade-off is that Eli Lilly gets to make all-time highs, which is a stock that needs to participate in this bull market, and it's nice to see that it is participating.

Open door right there. 10.9% on the day. 9.40 again. The CEO bought a million worth of stock today. I think that's one of the reasons it's pumping. Microsoft at 511. Where is SoFi? Are we trying to go for that $32 close? SoFi 32.28 up 4.5%. It is trying to get that close at 32.

I do not have but uh they did have earnings today. I really didn't get to look at their numbers. Down about 4.8%. But that stock is down. Cleanspark down 5% after their convertible note offering. Intel's basically flat. Beyond Meat down 8% on the day. And then Amazon, wow. Broke 245, 243.95 right there. And that is red.

Okay. Michael Burry, remember a couple days ago when he said, "Wait for November 25th because November 25th was supposed to be something really important." Well, I just looked at his Twitter bio 30 minutes ago, which is constantly changing. And here's what it says. Now Unchained blog launches November 25th. Stay tuned.

So, I guess it's a blog. On says tomorrow. Okay, cool. So, I guess it's dumping a little bit before earnings tomorrow. So, we'll cover it tomorrow. I guess it's a blog, folks. I guess it's a blog. I mean, now, could he still be super bearish about AI and everything that's going on? Sure. But if this was for publicity, I mean, my goodness, bro, if this was for publicity. So, now Unchained blog launches November 25th. Stay tuned.

Uh, I guess we'll see what the blog ends up looking like. Maybe the blog is like an anti-AI blog and he just keeps publishing research every week about how much he hates the blog. I mean, or how much he hates AI. But I guess he's trying to become a content creator and he's trying to build a personal brand and social media. I like, dude, when I saw that, first of all, did I not say it was a book? I was off. It was a blog apparently, not a book, but I felt like it was a freaking book. And apparently it's a blog. So that's what you got.

and we're going to see what ends up happening with Burry. Meta right here 608 down about 3% on the day. Oracle down 4% so trying to get that $32 close. We got about a minute 30 until the market closes. Then we have some earnings. quick macro stat I want to show you guys in spite of the labor market in spite of inflation in spite of tariffs as per Bloomberg. We talked about in the morning that institutional buyers bought 4.3 billion worth of equities which is the highest since December 2022 in terms of equity ETFs last week. Bloomberg said ETF inflows are strong. Yesterday there were 13 billion in inflows. 40 billion for the past five days, 8 billion per day. And now total is 1.16 trillion year to date across the entire ETF market in the United States. I mean that is just absolutely incredible.

And so yes, we are seeing some hiccups in the labor market. We are seeing a lack of data to be able to make some accurate decisions on what's going on. But investors continue to buy and in fact uh retail and hedge funds were net sellers last week as of Bank of America. Institutional investors were net buyers and they rotated from tech into staples and healthcare which is very indicative of the price action we're seeing today with some of the tech stocks being down and some of the healthcare stocks and consumer defensives being up. So again at the end of the day there is a lot of macro data to come through but you have investors that remain net bullish and they are allocating to those equity ETFs to get that exposure.

Apple right there 273. That's down half a percent. Coreweave down 3.2. Palantir was at 181 now at 184. That's down a little bit. Nvidia just went green. Wow. Into the close. Nvidia going green again. We got three earnings that we're going to be looking at today. Um, but it is nice to see Nvidia and the S&P go green as we get into the close.

Thank you everybody for being here. It is Wednesday, November 12th, 4:00 PM and the stock market is now closed. All right, we are done for the day. We are closed on a Wednesday. I will keep an eye on if we get any 13Fs and 13Gs after the bell. We obviously have earnings, so we'll look into that.

Nvidia went green at the close. 193.80. S&P 500 683. It inched out green by 0.04% which showed you a lot of that broadening trade as some market participants in the tech sector were down but the S&P 500 was up. The Q's just went red at the close tried to go green down by about 50 cents on the day. Open door great day. That's up 10.5%. Nebius got the $94 close which 94 is a very key level. So we'll see tomorrow if that can hold but $94 close. Very nice to see 94.36 for Nebius even though it was down 7% on the day. Robin Hood went green 132.98. Oaklo up 6.5%. Bitcoin just below 102,000. Coreweave was down about 3.35%. Iran down 3%. Nvidia again 193.80. You had grabbed 5.79 that's down 1.5%. Tesla was down 2% from 440 to 430. Hims down below 40 at $39. Delta at 60.48 that was actually up 4%.

And then you had Palantir at 18.47 down 3.5. SoFi did get the $32 close, $32.21, I think. If I'm not wrong, this is the first time in history SoFi closed above 32. It touched 32 a couple times a week ago and then this morning, then it fell below and now it's holding 32. So, congratulations to everyone in SoFi. 32.21. I did buy the dip last week at around 28. I know a lot of people bought the dip over the past couple weeks. SoFi right here, 32.21, up 4% of the day.

Yeah, Zeta closing above 20 is also really important. I mean, this thing touches 20 so many times, but then it falls back. So, the fact that it actually made a move above 20 is very nice. That's up 3.36% on the day. BMR, did we get red for the day? We actually got green. It was red an hour ago. 40.56 went to 39.42. That was up 2.4% as well.

Okay, we have Serve Robotics that is dumping. Serve that's down uh 7%. Then we have Cisco. I'll get their numbers in a second. That's up a little bit. And then DLO. Let me know which one of these stocks you guys are in. If people are in it, what did people say on the poll? 46% say Cisco will outperform. 22% say serve. And then 32% say DLO.

Okay. Well, what's going on with serve? Let's see what's down. Serve right here. Down 7%. I see a lot of DLO in the chat. Okay, so decent amount of people in DLO. Don't have their numbers yet. Let me see if we can get it.

Circle did have earnings this morning. I don't know why they fell as hard as they did, but you know, they ended up falling. I don't know enough about this business. I know it's in stable coins, but Circle right there down about 12% on the day. Serve right there down 3%. Wow, they missed by 69% 54 cents versus 32 cents expected on the negative basis. So they lost more than expected. Revenue was 687,000 versus 691,000. They missed by 1% on EPS. EPS is down 170% year-over-year. Revenue is up 210% year-over-year.

Is DLO pumping? DLO is dumping. Down 5%. Now it's down 8%. Goodness gracious. This one's getting hit. Cisco is the only one that's holding on a little bit. Serve now down 9%. DLO down 6%.

Uh, don't have the earnings yet. I should be getting it very soon. Don't have it yet. It looks like it might have been a double miss, which could have been an issue. Wow. Fed President Collins, additional support risks stalling inflation progress. See relatively high bar for further easing near-term. Fed's Collins favors holding rates steady for some time. Dude, if the Fed really is not going to cut rates in December, it complicates a lot of issues in this market. I cannot believe they're actually saying that we think it's not time to cut.

They think inflation is more of a concern than the labor market right now. We're going to have to see. There needs to be a majority decision for the Fed to go one way or the other. It's not like a Supreme Court decision where the majority wins. So, it's like we're really going to have to see what plays out. serve right there down 7% DLO now down 9% again the probabilities for a Fed rate cut are also the lowest it's been in the past couple weeks at 65% so that is still a question for December. DLO still don't have the results down 12% why is it getting hit this bad?

um do I have the numbers I don't have the numbers the street wants 16 cents a share and then 262 million. At least that's what the street is expecting on the top and bottom line. Oh, is it coming back? Is it coming back to life? Fell to 13. I mean, maybe that dump was a head fake because there are no numbers. Uh, serve also trying to come back a little bit. Now it's back down to 3%. This one's not easily making moves.

Cisco is pumping. Cisco is pumping. Wow. Cisco doesn't move this often. Cisco is a stock from the 2000s. This one does not move like that. Wow. 5% on Cisco. It was already up 3% during the day. Let's see what these Cisco numbers are. And Cisco is a really important company in the context of networking for data centers. So them putting up really good numbers matters for the overall AI trade, even if they're not like the biggest AI player.

Beat by 2% on EPS, a dollar versus 98 cents. Beat by 1% on revenue, 14.8 billion versus 14.7. EPS is up 10% year-over-year. revenue is up 8% year-over-year. Not massive massive beats, but they are indeed beats. Let me see if I can get some specific headlines from their investor page, but it's enough for the market to say, "Hey, we like it."

Fiscal year adjusted EPS $4.14. The street thought it was going to be $4.06. Okay, so adjusted EPS is higher than expected likely because margins are better than expected. margins going up is likely due to either a lot of demand or a lot more efficiency in the world of AI. 77.37. Wow. Cisco now year to date is up without the after hours move 25%. That's incredible. This is a name that doesn't move that often like that.

DLO still getting hit down 11. I still don't have DLO numbers. Oh, I got them. DLO, it's a double beat. It's a double beat. 17 cents versus 16 expected, that's a beat by 6%. Revenue 282 versus 262, that's a beat by 8%. EPS is up 90% year-over-year. Revenue is up 52% year-over-year. What is the street upset about to take her down 7%?

It's got to be something else in the data street's not happy with, but you got DLO that's down. Serve Robotics is still down and Cisco is green. No 13Fs yet after the bell. I'll keep an eye on them. We might get the majority of them tomorrow, but nothing yet after the bell.

DLO down 7.4. Cisco still holding four. Serve down six. S&P moving a little bit after hours. So is Palantir. So is SoFi. Look at that. 32.33 on SoFi. Meta's up a little bit after hours.

DLO. Oh, did it come back? Wasn't it just down 11%. Wasn't it just down 11% and now it's It almost just went green, dude. Now it's down 1%. Dude, can it can it actually go green? Can we actually Can we actually do a reversal right here? That is incredible, dude. Still down 2%. There is that green candle, dude. That is moving like crazy after hours. I think it went down before the double beat even came out and now the double beat is out. But the street kind of likes it, kind of doesn't like it.

Let's get to Cisco. Here's some coverage on what we're seeing on Cisco and uh then we'll keep going from there. >> It's a beat across the board. So, we'll start with a dollar flat adjusted EPS earnings per share that was stronger than anticipated on revenues of 14.88 billion dollars. Also stronger than anticipated. We're talking about the Q2 EPS guidance. Keep in mind that this is we're talking about the past Q1. So now this is the guidance for Q2. That range is higher than what the stream anticipated. The same thing for the Q2 revenue guidance. Same thing for the full-year guidance. And this guide is stronger, much stronger despite the government shutdown. Cisco does have a lot of exposure to the federal government in terms of sales. They did say in their earnings report, there's a quote from uh Chuck uh the CEO Chuck Robbins who said that the widespread demand for their technologies playing a huge role and they're seeing a lot of a multi-billion dollar campus refresh opportunity starting to ramp up because of all the aging networking gear that needs to be revamped. So all of this helping shares go up three and a half% guys.

Okay, Cisco showing there's plenty of demand. I mean, I'll try to get some deeper numbers on what they're saying right here, but network equipment does eventually need to be replaced. And if you're upgrading a lot of these data centers, then maybe that is one of the bull cases for Cisco up 4% after hours.

Serve still getting hit down 5%. DLOC basically down 5%. Not really making a move up or down, but that is getting hit. Let me see if there's dlocal uh financials we can look at. Dude, the numbers on this, I don't know that much about this company, but the numbers on it look pretty freaking cool. Record setting quarter. TPV record high of 10.4 billion, growing 60% year-over-year. Revenues up 52%. Gross profit 100 million. They are gap profitable. Net income up 93% year-over-year.

Uh we delivered another record quarter, the first time with TPV above US 10 billion in gross profit that surpassed US 100 million and one more example of our strong growth and continue diversification. All of which underscore the potential and resilience of our business model, said the CEO of DLO. Does Tanner like this stock? I think Tanner and Couch like this stock, right? Is this a name that they like? Uh DLO right here down 5%. I mean that looks like a pretty good quarter. Not sure why the stock is down. It's got to be something deeper for why the stock's getting hit, but that one's down.

because of margins. Yeah. I mean, like, well, I see. I don't know what the margin comparison is. I'll try to take a look at that. But if they're going to take it down because of margins and ignore the growth, it means the street's more focused on efficiency versus topline growth, which is fine because, you know, uh, margin has been the story for all the EPS that we've seen. But in these early days, you're going to have to sacrifice some margin for growth if you are growing at, you know, 52%. The cool thing about Palantir is they're not sacrificing margin for growth, which is what the street really likes.

Serve Robotics, let me try to pull up them and see what they put out. Again, they did 670,000 in revenue. Not really the strongest, but I guess the other metrics matter a little bit more. Delivery volumes is up 66% quarter-over-quarter, 300% year-over-year. Multi-year strategic partnership with Door Dash launched in Chicago. Third quarter revenue of 687,000. That's up 2x year-over-year. End of the quarter with strong liquidity of 210 million. And they raised 100 million through dilution. They have a thousand robots deployed. Daily supply hours increased by over 713% compared to third quarter of 2024. Wouldn't this be a company that Uber eventually buys out? Like this just feels like such an obvious buyout play for Uber. Market cap is less than a billion. I mean Uber probably doesn't need to buy because the partnership works so well with them, but eventually these guys actually can meaningfully grow. You would think that Uber would be a player to uh to buy them.

Open Door still moving after hours CEO bought a million of stock. Market likes it. Open door right there down a little bit, up 10% on the day. Again, the co-founder of Open Door said that he will bet $100,000 with some Twitter account that um it was just some some Twitter account. I don't know the name of the person, but they made a public bet of 100,000 bucks that Open Door will be more valuable than Shopify by 2032, which means Openoro would need a market valuation of around 200 billion. It's now at seven billion. So maybe that also created a lot of excitement in shareholders because the co-founders, you know, talking about a $200 billion market cap.

Firefly. What's there? Oh look at that. 10.7% move. They IPOed this year. Okay, Google lied to me. Or maybe it was a rebrand. I thought they IPOed this year, too. I remember hearing their name. Google saying they went public in 2007. They might have just recently IPOed again. Yes, earnings IPO 45. Okay, let's see if we can get some of the numbers on Firefly and what's going on here. Um, third quarter results. We have revenues up 98% quarter-over-quarter, 38% year-over-year. Uh they closed an acquisition, 260 million revolving credit facility, 176 million contract from NASA, 10 million blue ghost mission. They reiterated the revenue guidance of 150 to 158 million for 2025. Okay, so you have a pretty big beat on revenue. New contract that they're confirming that they got from NASA. uh revolving credit facility going up is always a good thing. Means they have access to credit and liquidity and guidance of 150 million that continues to be green. All right, Firefly is up.

Uh, Grab did lose $6 today. Quick update on them. There was an article that came out around this whole Goto saga. And um, basically it showed that Anthony Tan is getting very serious about this acquisition, the CEO of Grab. So, um, essentially saying that there's private meetings now going on between executive officials and these meetings are influenced by SoftBank's decision to get rid of the CEO. I mean, it is saga that we're going to have to see play out. I do think it rerates the company. Maybe it doesn't, but I think towards the end of December, we're gonna have a much better understanding of what's going on there.

Flutter, that's a big gambling stock. Flutter is down 3% after hours, by the way. Looks like their earnings were pretty good. We'll look at in actually no it looks like it was bad. Looks like they missed on a couple aspects. Flutter third quarter revenue 3.79 versus 3.86. That's a miss. Flutter sees fiscal year adjusted EBIT of 935 million. That's down from 1.25 billion. Third quarter monthly players 14.1 million versus 14.7 expected. They are now unveiling a new prediction markets platform with FanDuel and Fluttershares are down 5% after hours on missing on revenue.

This is kind of the same take I had yesterday with Jason about DraftKings. I am not that bullish on the gambling stocks simply because I think Khi and Poly Market in addition to Robin Hood. I don't want to say they're taking away their users because maybe I would have never been a DraftKings user if I had never learned about prediction markets, but I do think some of the excitement and momentum on those trades are being put into prediction markets, especially the sports prediction markets. And that's volumes that's not going to Flutter or to DraftKings. And so that could be a broader issue for those stocks.

I will check right now if we have any 13Fs that are updated. Uh I'm not seeing anything too crazy. If we don't get it today, we'll likely get it tomorrow. Let's see if Bridgewater is out. This is Ray Dalio, even though he doesn't run it anymore. Bridgewater not out yet. Um let's see. Howard Marks, is that one out yet? Oak Tree Capital Management. That one's not out yet.

First Eagle Investment Management, they manage $54 billion. Um, they have a lot of buys and sells. They sold some of their oracles, sold some of their Meta, added more of their Google. This is all as of Q3. Um, they bought Workday and Omnicom. Those are brand new buys.

Linddale train. These guys managed 4 billion. Uh they added 10% to Google, reduced 7% of TKO, reduced 25% of eBay, reduced 1% of PayPal. They added in Canadian Pacific. They added Estee Lauder. They sold a little bit of their Coke. They added 30% to Adobe. We all know Adobe's cheap. The question is, is cheap good given the narrative on them. They sold 50% of their oracle.

a lot of these funds, you know, a lot I mean, we ended Q3, what, September 30th? I would not be surprised to see Oracle on a list of the top most sold stocks in Q3 because um it pumped to 350 on September 10th. Like, I would imagine some of these funds were like, "Hey, we're gonna dump this stock because we bought it at 200 and it's at 300 in less than 24 hours."

Himalaya capital Leelu. He manages 3.2 billion. Is this the guy? Dude, this guy is epic. Leelu. Do you guys know this guy? Himalaya Capital Management. It looks like he did nothing. Google, Bergkshire, Bank of America, Apple, and Oxy. And then Pinduoduo. Didn't buy or sell anything apparently. He's Buffett's good friend. Oh, that's why he has $500 million of Birkshshire, dude. Leelu is the founder and chairman of Himalaya Capital. It was founded in 1997. Oh wow. We embrace the value investment principles of Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, and Charlie Munger.

Some movement on the housing front with demand for mortgages ticking up last week. Mortgage applications to buy a home rose 6% last week to their strongest pace since September, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Now, volume was 31% higher than the same week one year ago. This despite the fact that the average rate on the 30-year fix for conforming loans rose to 6.34% from 6.31 for loans with 20% down. That rate though is 52 basis points lower than it was a year ago. Purchase demand rose for all loan types, conventional, FHA, and VA as potential home buyers continue to shop around for the best deals. Now, as for refinance demand, not so much. It had been strong last month, but dropped 3% for the week, still 147% higher than the same week a year ago.

Oh, we were talking about Fanny Mae saying that, hey, maybe the 620 credit score should be re-looked, bring that down. Today, there's some headlines saying that, well, we should have um movable mortgages. So, basically, if you have a 2.75% mortgage on your home that you bought in 2020 and you want to move, the White House is exploring a way, as for Politico, to take that same rate and the same lender you have and bring it to a new house. Can the federal housing administration make that possible? Yes. Is that the healthiest thing for the economy? I don't know. That would be a moving mortgage. And you know, that could be something that the uh the White House is thinking of making housing more affordable.

Here is the news on uh the Fed Collins again. Another Fed president turning into a hawk and making the argument for why we shouldn't cut. She says financial conditions are a tailwind for economic growth and economic activity has been holding up quite well. She says additional monetary support risk slowing or stalling the return of inflation to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. There are downside risks to employment, she says, but they have not increased since the summer. And she's hesitant to ease further without evidence of a further weakening of the labor market.

The importance here, guys, it looks like there is now a critical mass of officials. I don't know if it's a a majority, but a critical mass of officials either outright opposing a rate cut or suggesting the Fed should go more slowly. It's unclear if it's half of the 12 voters that you need or six of them, but it's close. This contrast with a market that before Collins spoke moments ago when her headlines came out, there was a 64% probability of a December rate cut. It's now 61%.

If the December inflation report comes out on time, that's a big if, will be issued December 17th, and that's day two of the Fed's two-day meeting. So guys, this is really interesting at this point. There is definitely a divide on the Fed. It's a substantial divide at this point where I would think you could have three maybe even four descents if they do cut and there may be as many as five or six who oppose a cut at this point.

Dude, if we don't get this rate cut, oh my goodness. I don't think it means we like go back to the lows of October like 640 on the S&P. I just think any hope of like a meaningful run towards the end of the year gets squashed. So, it doesn't have to be bearish, but it's definitely not bullish. And that's the issue. And we're gonna have to see what ends up happening. But they're not getting a rate cut is not going to be good. Yeah, that Santa Claus rally is gonna be a little cooked.

All right, that's it for me. Thank you everybody. Appreciate it. We'll be back tomorrow. Uh, daily recap also will be posted later today and we'll go through everything that happened. S&P 500 ended green for the day 683.38. tomorrow we'll get a lot more of those 13F 13Gs disclosures and we'll see what exposure based on the disclosure these companies have or these investors have to some of the more important stocks in the market so far I haven't seen anything crazy I mean you're literally seeing some investors that have made zero moves so tomorrow we'll get a lot more of those disclosures and then we have earnings. That's pretty much it. We also might get some macro data. I mean, the White House is saying we're not going to get CPI and jobs data, but you might get some parts of data tomorrow. And so that stuff will be important as well.

Tomorrow we have New Bank. Dude, ironically, last time we got the 13Fs was the same day that New Bank earnings came out. Tomorrow we have New Bank, Applied Materials, Redcat, and QMCO, Quantum Corporation. Disney tomorrow morning. Correct. Disney tomorrow morning. Yes. Nvidia in a week. Nvidia in a week.

All right, that's it. Thank everybody. Appreciate it. I'll see you guys tomorrow on the market open. Bye everybody. Have a good one.