财报前瞻:市场预期与多方观点
大家好,欢迎回到新一期的 Robinhood 财报解读。这是 2025 年第三季度的财报,我很高兴能和大家一起讨论。过去几年里,Roy 和 Tanner 一直与我同行,能和朋友们一起经历这段旅程,我感到非常有意义。
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All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another edition of Robin Hood Earnings. This is Q3 2025. Very excited to be here with everybody. I'm here with two people that have been on the journey with me over the past couple years and it has been very rewarding to be on this journey with friends Roy and Tanner. How you guys doing?
一位嘉宾表示,他对 Robinhood 充满信心,这是他最大的持仓。他认为这是一家执行力出色的公司,股价也大幅上涨。他觉得财报肯定会很好,问题只是“有多好”,以及市场会作何反应。
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Doing great. Yeah, I'm excited. my largest position. Not worried either way. Amazing company, amazing execution. Stock is way up. We know it's going to be good. The question is how good and how will the market react.
另一位嘉宾同样非常兴奋,他不仅期待 Robinhood 的业绩,还认为这次的问答环节会非常有趣。因为 Robinhood 正在进入许多新市场,如信用卡、预测市场和银行业务,他们对这些问题的回答可能会对股价产生实质性影响。此外,今天还有许多其他公司发布财报,虽然大家会重点关注 Robinhood,但今天无疑将是信息量爆炸的一天。
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Yeah. Yeah, dude. I I'm really freaking excited uh to see not only what Hood is going to put up, but a lot of the Q&A this time around, I also think is going to be really interesting. They're entering so many new markets this time around. credit cards, prediction markets, banking, they can really uh answer things in ways that I think could be um you know material to push the stock. Aside from that, there's actually a lot of other companies that are pretty exciting that are also reporting today. I think we'll be listening into the hood call and and having a couple questions there. But, uh today in general is going to be a very jam-packed day. So, so should be exciting.
除了 Robinhood,今天发布财报的公司还包括 Duolingo、Applovin、Qualcomm、NQ、Elf、Fortinet、DoorDash、Joby、Lyft、Dutch Bros、HubSpot 等等。我们计划在 Robinhood 公布业绩后,花 20-25 分钟进行分析,然后尽快覆盖其他股票。如果市场出现大幅波动,我们会随时插播。
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Yeah. So, not only do we have Hood, we have Dualingo, Apploving, Qualcomm, NQ, Elf, Forinet, Door Dash, Joby, Lyft, Dutch Bros, HubSpot, Centric, Energy, Anovix, Honest, Figma, and probably a couple others that I'm missing. So, we're going to get the results on Hood at 405. Uh, we're going to try to analyze the results at least for about 20 25 minutes and kind of break them down and then we're going to get to pretty much every other stock. Last time we did this, we had Hood, Microsoft, and Meta. So, those were two big names to pay attention to. But if you're in any of the other names, we will try to get the coverage immediately right after we get Hood. If there's like a big mover up or down, uh we'll probably call it out in the middle of it. But we are going to see if we can get that Hood coverage.
市场普遍预期 Robinhood 的营收为 12.2 亿美元,但分析师之间存在一些分歧,有的预测是 12 亿。这个预期数字已经从最初的 10.1 亿美元上调了约 2 亿美元,同时预期每股收益为 54 美分。在财报发布前,Robinhood 股价已经上涨了约 5%。
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So, the street is expecting 1.22 billion in revenue. Some analysts have 1.2, others have 1.22. So, might be a little, this happened last time, a little bit of confusion on exactly what the expected revenue number is, but it has gone up. Originally, it was 1.01. So, it's gone up by about 200 million and 54 cents of EPS. I'm going to do the pump or dump poll in the chat. Obviously, the stock is moving going into the print, up about 5%. Uh, Tanner, we'll start with you. What do you think happens to the stock? And do you think they beat on the top and the bottom line?
对业绩的保守与乐观预期
一位嘉宾预测营收为 12 亿美元,EPS(Earnings Per Share:每股收益)为 55 美分,这与华尔街的预期非常接近。他解释说,由于 Robinhood 在过去三个月里已经公布了大部分交易量数据,所以业绩的可预测性很高,猜测空间很小。共识会非常集中。唯一的不确定性在于业务的抽成率(Take Rate:指平台从每笔交易中收取的费用比例)以及事件合约等其他小业务的表现。尽管如此,他仍然希望公司能带来惊喜,比如 Bitstamp 的表现或信用卡交易量超出预期。但他承认,对于一家信息如此透明的公司来说,制造意外惊喜很难。
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I have uh $1.2 billion, which is just slight of what Wall Street's expecting. And then I also have which is also conservative. There's a couple things that I don't have baked in. So, I might be right in line with Wall Street there. And I've got 55 cents of EPS. Now, the reason why I'm so close to Wall Street is because there's very little guessing that we have to do on this name. I mean, we've seen all of the volume that they've seen over the past 3 months, aside from like three trading days. So, this is why consensus is going to be very tight. The only thing that we don't know is the take rate on the business and and other small things like event contracts and what that means. But um even then they've shown us details of you know two billion options contracts traded during uh Q3 and you know all this different details. So I don't know man I'm I'm hopeful that they just come out with a large surprise and beat earnings. Maybe Bitstamp maybe uh credit card seeing more transactions than people expect. But it's very hard to surprise on this name whenever you give all of your information before the quarter is even released.
另一位嘉宾则认为,鉴于股价近期涨幅较大,即使财报很好,出现回调也不足为奇。他指出,过去几周,许多业绩优异但股价已大幅上涨的股票都出现了抛售。不过,作为他最大的持仓,他对公司的执行力非常满意。他反驳了“事件合约是小事”的观点,认为预测市场对 Robinhood 的叙事至关重要。此外,股票借贷、新收购的 Bitstamp 和 Trade PMR、保证金利率以及国际扩张都可能带来意外惊喜。总而言之,财报会很好,悬念在于到底有多好。
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Agreed. Roy, your thoughts on uh how you think the stock will react? Um I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback just because we've been running hard. The markets doing a little bit better today, but there is some weakness on it and it tends to sell off even very good earnings for names that have risen a lot. Um we've seen that over the last couple of weeks. So, you know, if that happens, I mean, it's my largest position, but I'm sitting pretty. Um I'm I'm very happy and pleased with the execution. And there there is a you know like like Tanner said there's less opportunity for surprise on the upside but I I would push back on one thing you you said small things like event contracts uh predictions market is not a small thing especially in the narrative that is Robin Hood and so I think that that's going to be paramount uh this quarter additional surprises could also come from stock lending we saw a huge surprise they had some commentary on it last time of course the uh the new acquisitions you mentioned bitstamp but also trade PMR uh margin rates we don't know those for the previous month. We do for the first two and they were absolutely ridiculous. And of course, international expansion. So, um, anything can happen. A lot's known. We know it's going to be good. The question is how good.
大家一致认为,市场是向前看的,预测市场将是未来的一个强劲增长动力,并且正在迅速加速。财报中关于这部分的内容,以及可能发布的十月份数据,将对未来的股价走势产生重要影响。
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The the only reason why I said small is because I think we even seen how many contracts were traded in Q3. It was something like, you know, uh, 2 billion contracts, whatever, which roughly comes out to $20 million. That's roughly like 1% of the revenue of what we're expecting. So like I am expecting them to grow. I just mean in this quarter it's not going to be that material. That's all. Yeah. And and my thought is just the market's forwardlooking and you'll see I think we'll see most questions maybe even some of our questions too on uh the predictions market. That's that's a future a strong future growth driver that's accelerating rapidly. Um and I think that's probably depending on of course how they report that and what they say as far as of course they also might release October numbers too. uh we've seen them do that before, but uh that's going to be a big part of what drives I think the stock in the future.
市场背景与 Robinhood 的惊人涨幅
期权市场暗示 Robinhood 股价在财报后有 7% 的波动预期。值得注意的是,从 2023 年 12 月的 7 美元到现在的 144 美元,Robinhood 是整个标普500指数(S&P 500: 标准普尔500指数,代表美国500家大型上市公司的股票指数)中表现最好的股票,因为它在两个月前被纳入了该指数。这意味着即使股价下跌 10%,它仍然有巨大的涨幅。关键在于公司的长期执行力,只要公司能持续兑现,长期股东就会得到回报。
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Uh the implied move is 7%. Uh now that implied move, I think was before the 5% move today, which is, you know, it's what makes earnings such a gamble sometimes because you just never know how it's going to play out. Nvidia kind of getting a dump right here into the close. Applovin has a 10% move. ARM 7%, Door Dash 8%, Snapchat 13%, ONQ 9.3, and then Figma uh as their second quarter as a public company. That is also a 13% move. Nvidia right there going down. Tesla actually up going into the shareholder vote tomorrow. S&P 500 did hit 680.8 right now. We're at 678. So, not a horrible day for the S&P. SoFi is up 2%. AMD is up 3%. And then Robin right here up 5 and a half% as we are getting into a pound right there down about 1.5. Then Reddit up 0.2. I think the other important thing to understand uh as we get into this earnings um and just always to put some context into it, Robin Hood was $7 back in December of 2023. It is now 144. It is the best performing stock in the entire S&P 500 because they got in to the S&P 500 two months ago. So, uh congratulations to all shareholders on them getting into the S&P 500 as well. So, look, if the stock does take a dip and it goes down 10%, instead of being up 230%, it's up 225% or 220%. Like it's it's at at this point the numbers become kind of just like okay it's up a lot obviously and it's going to hurt materially portfolios that are have big positions to it like a lot of us do but it's not something we can't be grateful for. So I just want to see the company execute. As long as they execute I think long-term shareholders will be rewarded. If you are speculating on earnings you just got to remember we've had a lot of companies give really good numbers but a lot of it was priced in and that means the the earnings don't necessarily turn out the way you want in terms of stock price action.
大家关注的焦点是公司的长期愿景。只要公司不出现负面数据,看到更多用户更频繁地交易,并将更多资金份额放在 Robinhood 平台上,就有助于公司的长远发展。从 CEO Vlad Tenev 与社区的互动来看,他们正在成功地吸引更多用户。预计 Q3 业绩会很好,Q4 也有望实现市场份额的超额增长。
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Yeah, the the long-term vision of the company is what I think all three of us are focused on. And unless they show negative numbers, it's going to help out the long-term vision of this company, seeing more members that are transacting more often, that are increasing their total share of wallet on Robin Hood. And from everything I'm seeing lately, like with Vlad Tennv's interaction with the Tesla community and the Open Door community, they only are incentivizing and wanting people more to come onto that platform. And I honestly think it's working. So I I think Q3 is going to be good. I think Q4, aside from the lack of trading volume that might end up showing up, I actually think Robin Hood will see an outsized amount of market share growth in Q4 as well. But we'll see. Yeah, this this is the last pretty easy comp that they have. Q4 will be harder. Um I think they'll be fine, but uh it does get more challenging beyond this.
新产品线的增长轨迹
新产品的发展轨迹至关重要。预测市场是一个大有可为的领域,正逐渐成为文化的一部分,有潜力发展成十亿美元级别的业务。信用卡业务已有 45 万用户和超过 300 万的等待名单,整个银行生态系统都很重要。此外,公司在九月的 Hood Summit 上发布的 Cortex AI、Robin Hood Social 等新产品,以及今年推出的期货、指数期权等超过 15 种新产品,都为 2026 年的增长奠定了基础。管理层如何阐述这些新产品的增长,以及公司在未来不同市场环境下的定位,将是人们关注的焦点。
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Yeah. I think uh the other thing that's important going into earnings is um the trajectory of these new products. So, as Roy and Tanner were talking about, prediction markets is a big deal. I think everyone is starting to realize that prediction markets are part of the culture of just any big event, whether it's the New York mayor election or uh sports events. So that as a as a product that can grow into a billion dollar business one day. I think that's going to be really important for management to talk about. Credit card now is like 450,000 people. Uh I think over three million people on the wait list. So the whole banking ecosystem that's important. We just had hood summit in September. All of us got to meet a bunch of you guys there. Uh Cortex AI, Robin Hood social. I mean there's a lot of different verticals I think they have ready to tap into for 2026. So, I would also be curious to see how they talk about the growth that of their latest products, futures, index options, all the different things they ship this year, which I think is well over 15 different products. And then how that bleeds into what's going to happen in 26 regardless of if it's a Super Bowl market or if it's, you know, casual or even if it's a bare market. How do they position the company going forward in the future? And I think that's what a lot of people will care about. Also, uh it's going to be live in the Bay Area. They're doing it at the Chase Stadium. They announced it this morning. I will not be there. I'm not in uh California. None of us are, but we uh they are still going to have a live earnings call and so it'll be fun to kind of see them do the NBA press conference type of earnings.
盘前市场动态:Nvidia 与谷歌的重磅消息
在财报发布前,市场出现了一些波动。Nvidia 股价下跌,有报道称主要云服务提供商正在缩减 2025 年的 GPU 订单。然而,分析师对此持怀疑态度,认为这类“消息人士称”的报道经常失实,并且与各大科技公司在财报季中宣布的资本扩张计划相悖。
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Not sure why Nvidia is going down. It is getting hit right here as we get into the end of the day. Wow. One 2% down on Nvidia. I don't see any headline. I still like while the crash is happening I'm like oh no 195. Yeah, this is the thing, right? It's like this thing was stuck at 170 for the past three weeks and now we're mad it's from 200 to 195. It's just like it's that part of the end of the year where we're trying to get those final numbers in the last two months, but it's okay if these names don't end at alltime highs. It's not a horrible thing. Yeah, I I I don't know exactly why Nvidia is falling today, but I I know with Palunteer uh afterwards there was a lot of headlines like that maybe AI is overhyped and Palanteer is falling as a result and everything because they had an amazing quarter and and I've seen that translate to several other A&Ms including uh Nvidia which I mean it's like levels not seen since like a week ago. So Oh no. I'm seeing a tweet here. Nvidia tumbles after reports suggest major cloud providers are scaling back GPU orders for 2025. Okay. That's the Bloomberg. That That would do it. I mean, that would be enough of a headline. And that's actually not what I read, by the way. I read something on uh X. So, exact same headline, by the way. Yeah. It's It's a little weird that I just pumping and Nvidia is falling on news that you would think would hit both of them. or a Nebius, right? Yeah. I mean, that would hit every data center play that's out there. So, I'm not sure if it's that accurate. Note major cloud providers scaling back. The neoclouds are coming in to uh to take all those GPUs. Yeah. And and if the major cloud providers aren't buying any more GPUs, they might not be giving these deals to the NeoCloud providers. So it it has to have an impact on those guys, right? Here's the thing. We've seen so many of these reports happen. Microsoft scaling back, you know, Google scaling back. We've seen all of this. Until I hear it from any of those companies mouths, I do not believe them. sources say has been the biggest source of fake news that has been reported on from Reuters and Bloomberg and all these I don't believe it. You know, if Jensen sees a pathway and by the way scaling back in 2020 or for GPU purchases in 2025, it's freaking November. What are we talking about? Like we've seen Jensen just come out and say there's $500 billion runway over the next six quarters. You think they're like, "Oh, you know what? Let's stop buying right now for November and December. Yeah. Yeah. And and like so far in the earning season, like all the entire earning season is Nvidia's earning season just because you have major uh large cap tech that talk about their capital X expansion, not retraction. Uh so I would put a lot more credence in that versus sources. Whoever the sources are, could be Michael Bur.
与此同时,一则重磅消息传出:据彭博社报道,苹果公司正敲定一项协议,每年向谷歌支付约 10 亿美元,将其 1.2 万亿参数的 Gemini AI 模型集成到 Siri 中。这表明苹果可能选择 Gemini 而非 ChatGPT 来增强 Siri 的功能,这对谷歌是利好消息。
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Yeah. It's the thing about when a stock goes up, it's like, well, when it goes down, even if it was probably going up for whatever reason, it will go down for whatever reason. And ultimately, we have to digest that. There was a headline with Google right here that was really important. Uh, this is from Bloomberg. Apple is finalizing a deal to pay Google about 1 billion a year to integrate its 1.2 trillion parameter Gemin Gemini AI model into Siri. That would be a pretty big deal. We've heard a lot of rumors about Apple and Google working together. It looks like Apple's potentially going with Gemini over Chat GBT to really establish a meaningful framework for Siri to expand and uh that's why Google stocks up a little bit. But it just further goes to show that this stock that was stuck at 150 for the majority of the year really ended up working out. Google right there 28.
业绩炸裂:Robinhood Q3财报数据概览
随着市场收盘,Robinhood 的财报结果正式公布。公司实现了双重超预期(double beat):
- 每股收益 (EPS): 61 美分,远超分析师预期的 53 美分。
- 营收: 12.7 亿美元,同样高于预期的 11.9 亿美元。
营收同比增长 100%,EPS 同比增长 260%,环比增长 29%。这些数字让分析师们惊叹不已,即使是最乐观的预期也被轻松超越。
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Okay, I got the numbers. uh 61 cents of EPS, 1.27 billion. They double beat. Oh my gosh. Revenue is up 100% year-over-year. EPS is up 260% year-over-year. Nice. Okay, another I don't know how they do it, man. The stock can do whatever they want. Goodness gracious, dude. Oh my goodness. Revenues up 29% quarter over quarter. Dude, we thought it was going to be hard for them to get 1.2 1.2 274. Oh my gosh. Again, you gota you got to look past the the stock price when you see these types of numbers and be like, goodness gracious, 61 cents versus that means their operating leverage probably got even better this quarter for like the eighth consecutive quarter in a row.
然而,财报公布后,股价却立即下跌。初步分析认为,这可能与两个因素有关:
- 交易收入略低于预期: 尽管股票和期权交易量创纪录,但基于交易的收入为 7.3 亿美元,略低于预期,不过这被强劲的净利息收入所抵消。
- 管理层变动: 公司宣布首席财务官 (CFO) Jason Warick 将于明年退休。CFO 的离职通常会引发市场的短期负面反应,这被认为是股价下跌的主要原因。
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Oh, Robin is down. Robin is down. There's a red candle right there. We got a red candle immediately. Then it's now the red candle's not it went from 140 to 137 for a second again. Posted earnings of 61 cents a share above the 53 cents that analysts expected and revenue of 1.27 billion versus the 1.19 billion estimate. transaction-based revenue that was a little bit light at 730 million despite record trading volume in equities and options but that shortfall was offset by strong gains in net interest income. Now funded accounts also a slight miss at 26.8 8 million. Meanwhile, a seauite shakeup. New CFO Shiv Verma is taking over for Jason Warick. I spoke to them both moments ago. They pointed to prediction markets as a major. That could be the reason the street likes Jason Warick. It's not a bad thing that he's stepping down, but if he is stepping down for whatever reason he is. We always see knee-jerk reactions by the street when there's a seauite shakeup.
深度剖析:关键增长动力与管理层变动
尽管股价出现波动,但财报的细节揭示了公司惊人的增长势头。
- 预测市场 (Prediction Markets): 被称为“有史以来增长最快的业务”。第三季度合约交易量翻倍,而仅 10 月份一个月的交易量就超过了整个第三季度。这预示着第四季度的强劲开局。
- 创纪录的净存款: 第三季度净存款达到创纪录的 200 亿美元,远超之前约 130 亿美元的记录。
- 黄金会员数创新高: Robinhood Gold 订阅用户达到 390 万。
- 业务线多元化: 公司现在有 11 个业务线能产生超过 1 亿美元的年化收入,新增了预测市场和 Bitstamp。
- 强劲的十月开局: 十月份在股票、期权、预测市场和期货等多个领域创下了月度交易量记录,保证金余额也创下新高。
- 股票回购: 公司以 1.04 亿美元回购了 100 万股股票。
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Bright spot calling it their fastest growing business ever. Contract volume doubled in Q3 versus the second quarter. And in October alone, they saw more trading than the entire prior quarter. They say that in October alone, they saw more trading than the entire quarter. I mean, that's going to be they're setting up for a strong Q4 and that's going to be a hard comp to beat as well. Goodness. Momentum is strong heading into Q4 with record customer deposits and activity. All right. Let me read through this. Here we go. Revenue up 100% year-over-year. 1.27 billion. Net deposits were record 20 billion. Dude, I think the most they've ever done is 13 billion. Oh my god. 7 billion increase on net deposits. Robin Hood Gold subscribers record 3.9 million. EPS 61 cents. Robin and now to 11 business lines generating 100 more million or more in annualized revenues. Here we go. Our team's relentless product velocity drove record business results in Q3 and we're not slowing down. Prediction markets growing rapidly. Robin Banking is starting to roll out and Robin Adventures is coming, said Vlad. Q3 was another strong quarter of profitable growth and we continue to diversify our business adding two or more business lines, prediction markets in Bitstamp that are generating approximately 100 million or more in annualized revenues. And Q4 is off to a strong start in October with record monthly trading volumes across equities, options, prediction markets, and futures and new highs for margin balances. Uh net revenues again 1.27 billion. Transaction 730. Net interest 456. I think that's their highest ever or close to their highest. Other revenues 88 million. Uh net income 556 million. So 556 out of the 1.27 billion was pure profit. Um adjusted eBay 177% funded customers 26.8 million. Assets 333 billion. It's pretty big. Net deposits 20.4. Again, that is just incredible. Arpoo is at 191 a user. Gold subscribers up by almost 2 million, 3.9 million total. They have 4.3 billion in cash. They bought a million shares of their stock at a 104. So, they spent 107 million buying their stock. Um, and so you had about a million shares with the share buybacks. October net deposits were 5 a.5 billion margin up 150% to 16 billion which is similar to what we've heard from uh FINRA right that that and margin loans are at their highest levels ever across every brokerage equity volumes 320 billion. I don't think I've ever seen a number in one month at 320. options guys 260 million. I think the most we've seen is like 195. Crypto volume's 32 billion. And crypto was bad in October. Like Bitcoin and Ethereum were not doing the best. So that's incredible.
分析师们一致认为,这是一份极其出色的财报,公司的执行力堪称典范。CFO 的离职虽然引发了市场担忧,但这很可能是一个早已规划好的过渡。Jason Warick 在任期间表现出色,但 Robinhood 拥有一个才华横溢的团队,因此无需过度担忧。
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Okay, that's what you got. A CFO Jason Warick announces intention to retire next year. Jason will transition from his role as CFO in Q1 and be a strategic adviser. That could be why the stock is dumping just that the CFO is retiring. But that's what you got. Uh Roy, your kind of raw thoughts on these numbers. I mean, yeah, ridiculous. Uh we expectations were high from analysts and also from us and they they still beat it. Uh this is a company that executes fundamentally their fire on all cylinders. Um a lot of future growth levers too and I agree with you like that probably you know maybe it's some of it a lot of it was priced in u you could be priced to perfection and maybe that's the case but it's not uncommon when the CFO of a company leaves that there is a dip afterwards. I I've actually seen that more often than when the CEO leaves just because CFO is a critical role and sometimes which will not be the case for Robin Hood. There's people like, "Oh, they're leaving so it must be something that's really bad that's out there." Well, I don't think that's the case. I think this has always been the plan. Jason's amazing. Um, and I wish him well in whatever he has in the future. But, uh, yeah, it's a very talented group, so no concerns there.
财报日的市场众生相
在 Robinhood 发布财报的同时,其他公司也经历了剧烈波动:
- Snapchat (Snap): 股价飙升 15%。尽管日活跃用户预计将下降,但公司营收超预期,并宣布与 Perplexity 达成每年 4 亿美元的合作,同时启动 5 亿美元的股票回购计划。
- DoorDash: 股价下跌 16%。尽管订单量和营收超预期,但 EPS 未达标,且公司警告称将在机器人、软件和平台整合方面进行数亿美元的新投资,影响了短期盈利能力。
- E.L.F. Beauty: 股价暴跌 20% 以上。公司指出,关税成本上升导致毛利率下降,并且业绩指引远低于市场预期。
- Duolingo: 股价同样暴跌超过 20%。尽管营收和用户增长强劲,但公司似乎未提供下一季度的指引,引发了市场恐慌。
- 半导体公司 (Qualcomm, ARM): 表现稳健,均实现了营收和利润的双重超预期。
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Guys, real quick, Snapchat's up 15%. Chime is up 5% over 20 bucks a share. Qualcomm down three and a half percent, ARM up 3.8%, ELF down 17%, Door Dash down 16%. These are huge moves. Here's some coverage on Snap. Has those numbers for us. Hi, Julia. Hey, Snapshare is soaring. Uh, the stock now is up about 15% in after hours trading as the company revenue beat expectations 1.51 billion versus the 1.49 49 billion estimated with 1 million more daily active users than anticipated. The company's earnings per share loss of 6 cents isn't comparable to expectations, but adjusted IBIDA of 182 million did top estimates of 125 million. Snap announcing a $500 million stock repurchase program and also guiding to fourth quarter revenue in a range with a midpoint just ahead of analyst expectations. also guiding to Q4 IBIDA and a range well ahead of the consensus estimates. Snap also announcing a partnership with Perplexity to bring its AI chatbot into Snapchat. Perplexity is paying Snap $400 million over the course of the year. Snap did warn though that they expect daily active users to decline in the fourth quarter as they also said that their investments in AI and machine learning are delivering measurable gains for advertisers. topline revenue revenue did beat uh at uh 3.45 billion versus 3.36 uh expected. EPS missed 55 cents versus 69 cents expected. And there's a wrinkle here in what uh Door Dash is is leading investors to think about going forward. First, to give you a couple more numbers. Total orders were up 21% yearonear uh to 776 million versus 770 million expected. So, uh the core business looking solid. Marketplace uh gov up 25% yearonear. Also a little bit better than expected, but two near-term hits to profitability to look out for. Uh Door Dash warning in the release here, robotics, software, and a common platform across Door Dash, Deliveroo, and Volt. They're going to be investing in that. They say, quote, "We currently expect to invest several hundred million dollars more in new initiatives and platform development in 2026 than we did in 2025. Also, they're going to invest a bit more in Deliveroo, that acquisition. They expect it to contribute approximately $45 million to adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025." All right, so that's what you got on Door Dash. A lot of these consumer companies are taking the hit right here, which is why their stocks are down. Figma, by the way, 100% beat on EPS, 10 cents versus 5 cents expected. 274 versus 263 million in revenues. Figma is flat. I mean, it's up 1%. But nothing too crazy. Uh, Duolingo, do do any of you guys have a reason why it's down 20%.
深入解读 Robinhood 的财务数据
对 Robinhood 财报的深入分析揭示了其惊人的财务健康状况。
- 40法则 (Rule of 40): 这是一项衡量公司健康状况的指标,即增长率与利润率之和应大于 40%。Robinhood 的得分高达 131,超过了 Nvidia 和 Palantir,是分析师见过的最高分。
- 收入结构: 交易收入和净利息收入均创历史新高。保证金收入从 1.14 亿大幅增长至 1.53 亿。
- 市场份额: 公司在股票、期权、加密货币和保证金业务的市场份额在过去三年中均有显著增长,但渗透率仍然很低,这意味着巨大的增长空间。
- Bitstamp 整合: 对 Bitstamp 的收购和整合非常成功,其交易量高于预期,显示了 Robinhood 加速被收购业务增长的能力。
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dude. The rule of 40. Take a guess. What's the rule of 40? 100. 100 or 95. 95 to 100. 131. Oh my goodness. That is 131, bro. Yeah, I think that's the highest I've ever seen. That is the highest I've ever seen. Wow. There you go. 131. Yeah, it beats Nvidia. It beats uh Palunteer. And those both have insane numbers. And And by the way, all-time high uh on uh transactionbased revenues and net interest revenues as well. um and nearly the all-time high on other revenues. So, pretty good. Okay, so transaction 730 they did 268 in equity, 304 options, 86 in uh or 86 in equity, 304 in options, 268 in crypto. So, it's still a really good quarter quarter. This is their highest they've ever done in transactions, it looks like. Uh yeah, highest ever. 72 million in other interest, net interest high, I think. Yeah, it's first time they broke 400. Credit card did 17 cash sweep 64 margin. Look at that dude. 114 to 153 on margin. Yeah, we saw u of course we see the October numbers now, but like the the prior two months were just insane margin acceleration. We're seeing that on other platforms too, but Robin Hood is killing it. And their their idea to uh like I think it was a year ago where they said we're going to take lower rates. So, we're going to lower these rates and gain market share. They've done that. By the way, there is a market share slide on slide 13, which is really cool, too. Okay, so equities market share, they're estimating they have 1.07% of the market. Uh crypto market share, they have 1.08, which is up 100%. Equities up 138%. This is over the past three years from 22. Options 7 and a half% that's up 68%. margin less than 1% but that's up 55%. Which means all of these are not really penetrated yet. And that's the growth story on Robin Hood. I mean if the if these all get to like 10% over the next decade and I feel like that's being very conservative to be honest like they're going to be doing billions and billions of dollars of revenue every single quarter.
财报电话会精华:管理层解读未来战略
在随后的财报电话会上,CEO Vlad Tenev 和即将退休的 CFO Jason Warick 详细阐述了公司的业绩和未来战略。
CEO Vlad Tenev 的开场陈述
Vlad 强调了公司在三大战略支柱上取得的进展:活跃交易者、钱包份额和全球金融生态系统。
- 活跃交易者: 通过推出做空、多经纪账户、Cortex AI 驱动的指标以及 Robinhood Social 等新工具,公司旨在让活跃交易者觉得在其他任何平台交易都是一种劣势。Q3 股票和期权交易量创纪录,10 月份更是再创新高。预测市场“火爆异常”,交易量每季度翻倍,10 月份的交易量超过整个 Q3。
- 钱包份额: 平台总资产已超过三千亿美元。退休账户资产翻倍至 250 亿以上,新推出的策略产品资产已超 10 亿。金卡持卡人超 50 万,年化消费额达 80 亿。Robinhood Banking 也已开始推出。
- 全球金融生态系统: 目标是十年后一半收入来自美国以外。通过在欧盟推出股票代币(Tokenization)、在美国推出 Robinhood Ventures(让散户接触私营公司)以及整合 Bitstamp(首个规模化的机构业务),全球扩张正在加速。
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Hey everyone, I'm here in our offices getting ready for our Q3 2025 earnings call streaming live from the Chase Center in San Francisco. Here's a quick rundown. Q3 was another record quarter driven by our continued relentless product velocity. Revenues doubled from last year to a record high. EPS also more than tripled at the same time. And we made great progress across our three strategic pillars. First, for active traders, we set records for equity and options trading volumes in Q3. Margin account balances tripled over the past 18 months to a record high. And our prediction markets are ripping with over two billion event contracts traded in Q3 alone. Not only that, October was even bigger, bigger than all of Q3 combined. And we've added contracts for pro and college football, entertainment, politics, economics, technology, and so much more. This is really becoming a comprehensive offering, not just for traders, but also brand new source of information. We're not slowing down here. At HoodSummit, we unveiled powerful new tools like Robin Hood social. Also AIdriven custom indicators and scanners powered by Robin Hood Cortex. Very exciting. as well as shorting and multiple individual brokerage accounts. Robin Legend also continuing to grow. We really like what we're seeing there. Remember, we started basically from zero on active traders for web and we think there's a ton more market share to be gained here. And this is all part and parcel of our approach to active trading. We want to make it a no-brainer to use Robin Hood. And increasingly so, we think you'll be at a disadvantage using any other platform. All right. Second, on the wallet share front, we want to be your primary and secondary financial account, and we're making a lot of progress. We're seeing strong momentum in total platform assets with a third of a trillion dollars now held at Robin Hood. Customers are loving our long-term investing products, both Robin Hood Retirement and Robin Hood Strategies ramping up super nicely. Plus, we're rapidly shipping gold cards to more customers, and we've begun the roll out for Robin Hood banking as well. Third, last but not least, we're expanding globally as we build the number one global financial ecosystem. Tokenization has been a big accelerant to our global expansion. And you might see in this chalkboard here from our European event in Europe. We're continuing to execute on our roadmap and we more than doubled the number of stock tokens available to our customers. We also rolled out perpetual futures and in the US we're excited to bring access to private companies to retail shareholders through Robin Hood Ventures. Plenty more to come there. There's a lot more to share. So check out our full results at investors.roinhood.com and tune in to our earnings live stream in all the usual spots including directly in the Robin Hood app which will be very fun. See you all soon.
CFO Jason Warick 的财务解读与交接
Jason 强调了公司强劲的盈利性增长,营收翻倍的同时利润率扩大,每股收益增长了三倍以上。他指出,预测市场和 Bitstamp 已成为公司第 10 和第 11 个年化收入超 1 亿美元的业务。他还解释了运营支出超出预期的原因,主要是由于业绩强劲导致员工奖金增加,以及 CEO 的一项股权激励到期触发了意外的工资税支出。最后,他正式宣布了退休计划,并介绍了继任者 Shiv Verma。
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In Q3 we delivered another quarter of strong profitable growth. Revenue doubled while margins expanded and earnings per share more than tripled from last year. Uh year-to- date through Q3, revenues are up 65%. Earnings per share is up 150% and we continue to stay disciplined on expenses to deliver 75% incremental adjusted EBID margins. And it's exciting that as our business grows, we're continuing to diversify. In Q3, two more businesses, Prediction Markets and Bitstamp, each surpassed a h 100red million in annualized revenue, bringing us to 11 in total and underscoring the growing diversification and strength of our business. Prediction Markets reached that milestone in less than a year. It's our fastest in history, and it's already tracking towards a $300 million run rate based on October volumes. So, just really really going uh going fast. Now, let's take a closer look at our Q3 results compared to a year ago. Revenues doubled to an all-time high nearly 1.3 billion as our customers remained engaged and continued to bring more of their assets to the platform. Trading volumes were up double to triple digits across equities, options, and crypto. And we continue to grow market share across product categories. We're also seeing strong contributions from newer products like prediction markets, index options, and futures. Interest earning assets were up over 50% driven by strong margin and cash sweep growth. It's great to see margin continuing to hit new highs as we win larger customers and gain market share. And securities lending also hit an all-time high with a strong market backdrop as IPO activity continued to pick up. and Robin Hood Gold grew to 3.9 million subscribers. That's over 75% year-over-year growth as we continue to broaden the value proposition, including Robin Hood Banking, which is just uh beginning to roll out. Uh turning to expenses, Q3 adjusted OPEX and sharebased compensation came in at 613 million. It's about 40 million above the midpoint of our prior outlook range. Uh this was driven by two items that are both related to our strong performance. first stronger year-to- date results led to higher Q3 employee bonus acral. Uh that is higher for Q3 but also includes a catch up for the first half of the year. Uh and second um the significant increase in our stock price this year triggered vesting on the remaining trunch of the 2019 CEO market-based award. Uh this resulted in unplanned payroll tax expense in GNA. We are through that award now. So glad you get to go back to your 40,000 a year. Looking uh looking ahead to the rest of the year, we're tracking toward full year 2025 adjusted OPEX plus SPC of around 2.28 billion, but it could be higher or lower depending on how the rest of the year plays out. This reflects our strong year-to- date business results which had us tracking to the top end of our prior outlook range as well as some increased investment in new growth areas like prediction markets and Robin Hood ventures. I think each of these areas have significant potential for us. And lastly, this also incorporates the cost of LAD's uh market-based award which were not previously included in our outlook. I'll also provide a quick update on the strong results we're seeing so far in Q4. As you may have seen in the release, uh October was a strong month across the business. We saw continued momentum in net deposits, new records set across equities, options, prediction markets, and margin, and a nice step up in crypto volumes. Uh and before we go to Q&A, uh I'm sure you saw in the release that I'm uh going to be retiring next year. Uh I'll transition in Q1 from my operating role into an advisory role and will stay on until September 1st. Uh I'm incredibly happy uh and proud to share that Shiv Verma will be stepping into the role of CFO.
问答环节亮点
- 预测市场策略: Vlad 表示,Robinhood 的核心优势在于其庞大的用户分发网络和多资产集成的生态系统。公司将继续利用这一优势,而不是寻求垂直整合(如自己成为交易所),因为他们相信开放竞争的交易所环境对客户最有利。
- 代币化 (Tokenization): Vlad 再次阐述了其宏大愿景,认为代币化将“吞噬”整个金融系统。他认为 Robinhood 独特的地位能够连接传统金融和加密世界,将股票、房地产、私人信贷甚至艺术品等现实世界资产带到链上,实现 24/7 交易、部分所有权和通过 DeFi(Decentralized Finance: 去中心化金融)协议进行借贷。
- 国际扩张: 公司将通过有机增长和潜在的并购相结合的方式进行国际扩张。目前仍处于早期阶段,但英国和欧盟的早期用户群活动正在改善,为未来的市场营销活动提供了信心。
- 产品开发速度: 管理层将产品开发速度的提升归功于转向“总经理”模式、明确的财务回报(ROI)要求以及早期对 AI 技术的采纳,尤其是在客服和工程领域。
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For my question, I want to say congratulations to both Jason and Shiv. Jason, really enjoyed working with you. Shiv, looking forward to getting to know you a little better. So, I had one on prediction markets. You've obviously become one of the leaders in the space, but there's been a lot of new entrance recently. So, I was hoping you could talk about just the strategy there and what you think gives you the right to win long term. And then as a second part to that, can you talk through some of the strategic considerations around maintaining your position today as kind of a retail distribution for the venues versus maybe trying to develop something internally whether that's organic or. Yeah. Yeah. So I think one of the advantages we have uh entering any market uh prediction markets aren't uh an exception is that we have distribution and we have lots of customers 26 million plus funded accounts uh in the US that uh are trading and using us for for all sorts of things. And from an infrastructure standpoint, uh, we actually have an increasing set of tools that can plug in and are are being built to be multi-asset. So, not just our mobile app, but increasingly on web. We have Robin Hood Legend. We have all of these things that uh that that we announced at Hood Summit. And it's really an ecosystem of financial services. and you'll see great integration between all of our platforms and and all of our assets and account types uh increasingly so in the future. I think when we think about vertical integration like should we be uh a market maker or should we be an exchange in any asset one thing we look at is is the vertical integration going to be accretive to us. Is it going to be something that is increasingly commoditized over time? Um and and my my feeling for how this is going to evolve in prediction markets at least is there's going to be a lot of entrance in the space, a lot of exchanges. And in the same way that across equities and options, customers are well served because there's a wide variety of venues that are competing on cost to low to offer great execution. I think prediction markets will will evolve that way too. And I think in that world, the customer certainly benefits because different DCMs and markets will compete for who offers the lowest cost. And I think the the power continues to be in in our distribution and offering uh a wide variety of of products and services. I think we're we're the only ones currently that have, you know, this powerful combination of for traders, not just being able to trade prediction markets, but crypto, options, equities, futures. Um, I I think it's a great great combination and there's certain advantages for everything being in one place uh under under a simple easy to use platform. I think we can keep pressing on that advantage. And as you've noticed, I think the the product has continued to evolve at a pretty rapid pace. I think you should expect that to continue and and to even accelerate. Hey Vlad. Hey Jason. Thank you guys for uh taking my question and a big thank you Jason over the years on your execution and congrats to you Shiv on your new role. Um, my question is for you, Vlad. Going back to tokenization, you recently said tokenization will eat the broader financial system. Outside of just tokenized equities, can you give us a more larger look on how big of a size the opportunity is? Why right now is the time to go after it and what Robin is really thinking about over the next couple of years in terms of taking advantage of the opportunity. I know there's a lot of different other assets besides equities that could be tokenized. So can you just speak a little bit more on how you guys are thinking of the opportunity? Yeah, I think that the opportunity is very exciting. One of the things that um I think is both a problem and an opportunity with uh traditional crypto is that crypto and the traditional financial system up until fairly recently have kind of been two separate worlds. And I think Robin Hood has a unique position as a scaled crypto business, but also a scaled business in traditional finance to bridge the two and actually make room for uh what we consider traditional assets, but really things like securities, uh products with real fundamental utility to leverage blockchain technology and actually be tradable onchain. uh where customers can self-custody, they can engage with a variety of protocols, collateralize borrowing and and lending and where those assets can be traded 24/7 real time in fractional quantities. Um you've obviously seen some efforts in private companies uh in the EU with our OpenAI and SpaceX uh token giveaways there. Um, so I I think we're we're really interested in in continuing to pull on that and and making those products uh available to customers. Uh, the other opportunities that I'm personally excited about is uh real estate, private credit, uh, unique assets and collectibles like art. Um, if you think about, you know, what what's a a part of your portfolio if you're a high- netw worth individual, there's a lot of these assets that actually retail can't access currently. And I think that tokenization is a way to enable that at scale uh and sort of like reduce some of the downsides that would would typically be associated with holding those assets like lack of liquidity, being locked into positions, not being able to like chunk the assets out and and invest in portions of them. So, uh, that's why we're continuing to push on it, um, both in the US and and outside. And you should expect this to become bigger and bigger, uh, in the coming years, of course, starting with stocks, which is uh, the asset class that we think has the most potential and we're also closest to.
结论与展望
尽管财报发布后股价平淡,但这丝毫不能掩盖 Robinhood 季度业绩的辉煌。公司在所有关键指标上都表现出色,新业务增长迅速,运营杠杆效应显著,市场份额持续扩大。管理层展现了清晰的战略和强大的执行力。
分析师们普遍认为,Robinhood 是一家正在崛起的“世代性公司”,未来有潜力成长为万亿美元市值的巨头。从一家濒临死亡的公司,到如今在各个领域全面开花,Robinhood 的转型故事证明了其管理团队的韧性和远见。对于长期投资者而言,这无疑是一份令人无比安心和充满信心的成绩单。
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Look, the stock is flat after hours. I don't think it matters as much because the quarter was amazing. So, Roy, I know you got to go. So, just real quick, uh any overall thoughts on the call, you know, just a ridiculous amazing quarter. Uh, and just it's hard to find weak spots. Like, you have to really look. Uh, this company is cyclical still, but they're executing on all cylinders. This is a completely differentiated business. They really are showing off that they are doing things better than their competitors. 131% rule of 40 market share growth increasing operating expenses but much slower than what we're seeing from actual revenue. What can't they do? Yeah. I mean, look, if we get a bearish market in 26 or we get a correction, which inevitably you have some type of pullback in the market, this is like it's on the top list of stocks to buy. It just is. I mean, it's like, you know, and whenever you think of selling or trimming the position, and everyone can sell or trim or do whatever they need to do for for personal reasons, and then you hear a call like this, forget the results. You just hear the quality of how management is talking about the trajectory of a business. It reminds you a couple things. Number one, it reminds you that building a business is hard. And anyone who's ever built a business knows how hard it is. It reminds you that scaling and growing the business is even harder. You can make a business, but then actually getting it to compound over years is is very difficult. And then number three, it reminds you how few businesses that are out there in the world that are actually scaling at 90% or 100% I should say for Robin Hood. year-over-year. Now, that's not going to happen forever, but the point is you really ask yourself, where are those companies? And there's not many of them. There's maybe 20 to 30 of them that are public. And as a result, it's on the top list. And you know, the one thing about this management team is you can trust them. You really can trust them. That's one of the biggest components for me. Can you trust management? I think we can really trust Vlad and and how they're executing. Yeah. And one thing I also want to say is, you know, Vlad talked about this a little bit on the call, but he he had this riff about how they're not the same company they were back in CO. People forget after the growth spurt they had in CO and then after the whole GameStop situation, they were dead as a stock and quite realistically as a company for about two and a half years. And it's those moments when the company's not really executing, but behind the scenes they're trying to figure out how to lay the foundation to get this type of execution that's the most important. It's the most transformative. And it really shows a lot about Vlad as a founder. I mean, in those years when hits the fan, stocks at six bucks, no one cares anymore. And he's still having the mentality that he's going to build a multiundred billion dollar company now robbing it at 130 billion. Like just very excited for him, very excited for the team, happy that retail investors got to be along the journey. But you just don't find that many people that can withstand the the essentially death of their stock and their company and then come back alive and really execute at a level where now we're talking about hey a trillion doesn't sound crazy and that's what Vlad did and that's why it's hard to ever even think of betting against them.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Tanner, Vlad Tenev, Jensen Huang, Donald Trump, Michael Burry, Tom Lee
公司/组织: Robinhood, Duolingo, Qualcomm, Fortinet, DoorDash, Lyft, HubSpot, Figma, Nvidia, Tesla, S&P 500, SoFi, AMD, Bitstamp, Google, Apple, Bloomberg, Reuters, Snapchat, Perplexity, FICO, ARM, Schwab, Fidelity, AWS, Microsoft, Meta, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan
媒体/书籍: Financial Times