会议背景与经济概览
本次FOMC会议的解读，恰逢1月28日，其核心内容正如预期般平淡无奇。在会议结束后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的表态并未带来市场预期的重大变动。回顾上次会议（12月），FOMC确实进行了降息。自那时以来，经济数据表现尚可：就业增长稳健，各项调查显示出改善迹象，通胀数据也处于可接受范围。总体而言，经济状况与上月相比变化不大，通胀率略高于2%的目标水平，经济增长势头依然良好。在本次会议召开前，市场普遍预期不会有任何利率调整，近乎零概率的降息预期反映了这种普遍的看法。
Original English
Hello my friends. Today is January 28th and this is my January FOMC debrief. Now the press conference just ended and it really was as boring as expected. But before we talk about what happened today, let's level set a little bit. Now the last time we had a meeting was in December and the FOMC did cut rates. Now between then and now you know data has come in basically okay. I mean job mark job growth is okay. Um seems like we have some improvements in surveys and uh inflation was okay as well at the end of the I mean at the end of the day we're basically where we were uh just uh last month. Economy is low low higher low fire. Inflation is a bit above 2%. Now heading into today's meeting there was widespread expectation that nothing would happen. the market was pricing in 0% chance basically of any uh rate cut.鲍威尔主席的未来与潜在影响
本次会议最引人关注的焦点之一，是关于鲍威尔主席其任期（将于5月结束）后的计划。按照历史惯例，美联储主席在任期结束后通常会辞去联邦储备委员会的职务，由总统任命新成员。然而，鲍威尔作为理事的任期要到几年后才结束。这意味着，如果他卸任主席一职，他仍可以选择继续担任理事。尽管历史上曾出现过主席留任的情况，但这并不常见。鲍威尔本人对此一直守口如瓶，其计划备受关注。若他选择辞职，特朗普总统将有机会任命一位新理事，这可能会导致美联储的政治化程度进一步加深。
Original English
So what I was most interested in hearing about in this meeting was what chair Powell's plans were for when his chairmanship ends in May. Now when you are a Fed chair and your uh chairmanship ends historically speaking you resign from the Fed and then the president gets to appoint someone else. For Cher Powell though, you know, his term as governor, so if he stepped down from chair, he would be a normal governor. Doesn't end until a few years later. So, he has the option of staying on. It would be rare. I mean, it's happened before, but it it would be uncommon. He's been closely guarded about his uh his plans. And of course, if he were to resign, then the President Trump would be able to appoint a new governor. So you would have a I guess a more politicized Fed. So in any case,会议声明与关键异议分析
在新闻发布会上，首先审视的是FOMC的官方声明。声明内容对经济前景进行了温和的积极评价，这与实际情况相符。然而，本次会议出现了一个值得注意的细节：共有两次异议。第一次来自Governor Waller，这出乎许多人的意料，因为他通常被视为一位中间派理事。考虑到他也是美联储主席的潜在候选人，并且担任主席只有一次机会，他可能通过提出异议来增加自己的筹码，这种行为是可以理解的。第二次异议来自Governor Myron，这并不令人意外，因为他此前已多次提出异议。值得注意的是，Governor Myron过去曾主张降息50个基点，而此次他仅要求降息25个基点，这表明他的立场正在趋于温和。这种调整可能会增强他在与其他理事沟通时的说服力，使他不再显得那么极端。
Original English
today's uh first starting with the statement. Now the statement just modest upgrades into the economic outlook. That's that's true. Uh what was most interesting to me was that we actually had two descents. One from Governor Waller. I think that was very surprising. Governor Waller we think of as more of a centrist governor. However, he is one of the candidates to be fed chair and of course, you know, you only get one shot at being fed chair. So, I think it's totally understandable if he if he were to, you know, maybe descent a little bit to improve his chances. I think we would all do the same. The second descent was Governor Myron. Now, Governor Myron, we've been seeing him descent some time. Um, so that was expected. What was a little bit different now, though, is that in the past, Governor Myron has dissented and called for 50 basis points. This time he's just dissenting and calling for 25 basis point cut instead. So it looks like he is moderating his stance. That's probably going to make him bit more persuasive when he talks to other people at the Fed. He won't seem like such an outlier.新闻发布会焦点：美元对冲与黄金价格解读
进入新闻发布会环节，尽管整体内容不多，但有几个关键问题值得关注。首先是关于外国投资者是否在对冲美元敞口的问题。去年4月曾出现过“卖美股”的交易潮，美元大幅走弱，近期又因达沃斯会议后的余波而再次走软。此前，国际清算银行（BIS）的研究曾指出，尽管外国投资者仍在持有美国资产，但他们正在对冲美元敞口。然而，这一说法一直存在疑点，因为如果大量投资者同时对冲美元，通常会在外汇掉期（FX swap）基差中有所体现，使其变得更加负值。但实际市场定价显示，FX swap基差并未出现显著的负值，有时甚至为正。鲍威尔主席在被问及此事时表示，他并未观察到大量投资者在对冲美元敞口。此外，从基金流动数据来看，外国投资者仍在持续流入美元资产。
第二个引人关注的议题是关于黄金价格飙升的看法。鲍威尔主席被问及如何看待近期黄金和白银价格的历史性上涨。他表示，宏观经济上不应从中解读太多信息。他反驳了所谓“失去信誉”或“货币贬值”的论调，认为从通胀预期来看，美联储的信誉是稳固的。他强调，美联储会监测这些资产价格变动，但不会过度关注。他将黄金视为一种“野蛮的遗迹”（barbarous relic），认为其本身并不能提供太多实质性信息。他进一步指出，如果存在货币贬值，通常会伴随通胀预期的上升，但市场交易数据显示通胀预期并未显著走高。他推测，当前的黄金价格上涨更多是由于动量交易、投机行为（如购买NFTs、Meme币的群体）以及地缘政治因素（如伊朗战争相关新闻）所驱动。
Original English
Now moving on to the press conference. So yeah, it's not much going on really. Just um Cher Powell was asked explicitly whether or not he would what his plans were after his chairmanship ends. And you know, he's still not really revealing that. That's kind of a big Trump card he holds. If he were to stay, he would very much be a shadowfed chair and be able to uh I think still wield significant influence over how the rest of the would uh would view. So we don't get any information on that at the moment. I think the most interesting things that came up during the press conference were one about questions about uh whether or not foreign investors are hedging their dollar exposure. So remember last year, last April, we had a big sell America trade. The dollar's weakened significantly and the past week it's been weakening again in the aftershocks of uh of the Davos escalation there. So the BIS had a p research piece out a few months ago or maybe oh sometime last year saying that you know foreigners are still holding US assets they're just hedging their dollar exposure. Now that has always been very suspect to me because when you hedge your dollar exposure and everyone is if when everyone is jumping to hedge it you will see that in pricing through the FX swap basis it would become more negative. But as I've commented before on on Twitter, you know, if everyone was hedging, then why is the FX swap basis basically not very negative, actually sometimes positive. So that's just a story that you got to respect what the BIS is putting in. I actually think they do really good work, but doesn't seem to be consistent with the market pricing. And when asked about that today, Chairp basically said he doesn't like he doesn't really see people hedging their dollar exposure. So um uh that that was I think an really interestingformational tidbit and from the aggregate u fund of fundflow data it's really obvious that foreign investors continue to pour into dollar assets. Now the second thing I think that I found interesting is more of the topic duour which is cha was asked about what he thought about these surging gold prices. Here's what he said. As I'm sure you've noticed, gold and silver prices have experienced historic gains of late. And I'm wondering how much attention, if any, you pay to those moves and and what message you may take from these uh significant price increases we've seen for precious metals. Don't don't take much message macroeconomically. Um the argument can be made it's, you know, that we're losing credibility or something. It's simply not the case. If you look if you look at where inflation expectations are, our credibility is right where it needs to be. So we look at those things. We don't we don't get spun up over particular asset price changes. Although we do we do monitor them, of course. Now I can tell you as someone who used to work at the Fed thoroughly doesn't care about gold prices. For them gold is really they're you know they're mostly standard PhD economists. So they think of gold as you know it's just a kind of a barbarous relic as Kane would say. It's not something that really says anything. Now he also directly addresses the claim that this is some sort of loss of confidence debasement and so forth. But again if this were true then you would expect inflation expectations to be rising right in a fiat currency regime. Debbacement means inflation. It means that your currency is able to buy fewer goods and services. But if you look at uh what the market traded at inflation break evens are implying, you just don't really see that. So uh I continue to think that what you're really seeing is just uh a lot of momentum chasing a lot of uh people the same people who've been buying NFTTS, meme coins, and so forth. They're still around and they're still kind of kind of uh speculating. I will also note though that there are uh heightened Iran war headlines and so that could be impacting this as well.未来展望与政策动向
总体而言，本次FOMC会议的表现相当平淡，未对市场产生显著冲击。展望未来，货币政策的下一步动向，关键在于白宫何时会宣布下一任美联储主席的人选。这一任命将对未来的货币政策走向产生重要影响，值得密切关注。
Original English
All right. So, overall pretty uneventful. For the next move in monetary policy, I think we really need to pay attention to the White House because, you know, any moment now, as they've been saying for some time, they could announce the next Fed chair. All right, talk to you all this weekend.📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Jerome Powell
公司/组织: Federal Reserve