挪威主权财富基金CEO:长期投资、透明度与领导力洞察 Norges Bank Investment Management 2024-12-19

长期视角:更少决策,更高质量

主持人: 但当你采取更长期的视角时,你会做出更少的决策,而你做出的决策越少,它们往往就越好。

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but when you take a longer term view you make fewer decisions the fewer decisions you make the better they tend to be.

主持人: 比如说,如果你一个月只做一次决策,它往往会比你一天做十次决策要好。

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You know, if you make one decision a month, it tends to be better and if you make 10 a day.

主持人: 大家下午好,欢迎来到高盛(Goldman Sachs)的又一场对话活动,今天我很高兴能与挪威银行投资管理公司(Norges Bank Investment Management)的首席执行官尼古拉·坦根(Nikolai Tangen)一同出席。

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Good afternoon, everybody, uh, welcome to another session of of Goldman Sachs talks and I'm delighted to be joined today by the CEO of noris Bank investment management Nikolai tangon.

主持人: 所以,首先让我们欢迎尼古拉来到高盛。

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So first of all, let's welcome Nikolai to Goldman Sachs.

主持人: 尼古拉负责管理政府养老基金,这是世界上最大的主权财富基金(Sovereign Wealth Fund: 由政府拥有和管理的投资基金),拥有全球约1.4%的上市公司股份。

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So Nikolai is responsible for the management of the government pension fund um, it's the world's largest Sven weth fund um, owning about 1.4% of the world's listed companies.

主持人: 尼古拉还负责挪威银行投资管理公司的日常运营,他此前曾是欧洲顶级投资管理公司之一AKO资本(AKO Capital)的首席执行官兼首席投资官。

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Nikolai also runs the daily operations of NES Bank investment management, he was previously the chief executive officer and chief investment officer of AKO Capital One of Europe's top investment management firms.

主持人: 尼古拉创立了AKO资本,并成立了AKO基金会(AKO Foundation),该基金会旨在支持教育、推广艺术和应对气候变化。

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Nikolai founded AKO capital and also established the AKO Foundation which aims to support educ ation, promote the Arts and combat climate change.

主持人: 我们显然会和尼古拉谈论挪威银行、投资如何推动变革、领导力以及他从世界上一些顶级领导者那里通过他的播客学到的东西。

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We're obviously going to talk to Nikolai about noris Bank how Investments can drive change leadership and what he's learned from some of the top leaders in the world from your podcast.

主持人: 所以,我期待着谈论这些,如果可以的话,我们现在就直接开始吧。

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So um, I'm looking forward to talking about that and so if it's okay, we're going to kind of Jump Right In so cool.

管理万亿级基金的责任与原则

主持人: 好的,你即将迎来作为挪威银行投资管理公司首席执行官的第五个周年纪念日,这是挪威价值1.7万亿美元的投资基金。

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Okay, well, so you're coming up on your fifth year anniversary as a CO of noras Bank investment management, Norway's $1.7 trillion investment fund.

主持人: 自你2020年接任以来,基金增长了60%。

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And the fund is up 60% C that you took over in 2020.

主持人: 谈谈管理如此庞大资本池的责任,以及你如何看待这种责任,以及在过去五年中,它如何塑造了你试图建立这种管理方式。

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Talk about the responsibility of stewarding you know, a pool of capital this large talk a little bit about how you kind of think about that responsibility and how it's kind of framed the way you've tried to set this up over the P five years.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,这是一项巨大的责任,因为它是一个非常小国家的一个如此庞大的基金。

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Yeah, it's a you know, it's a big responsibility because it's uh, it's such a kind of big fund for a very small country.

尼古拉·坦根: 尽管我们每年只使用基金的2.5%,但它却提供了国家预算20%以上的部分。

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And um, despite we only use 2 and a half% of the fund every year, it it provides more than 20% of the state budget.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们的网站上有一个实时显示基金价值的滚动条,每秒更新13次。

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And we have on our website a ticker which is the live value of the fund and is updated 13 times per second.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,它非常实时,是这个国家最受关注的数字,每个人都在关注它。

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So uh, pretty kind of live and it's the most watched number in the country, so everybody is focusing in on it.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,这是一项巨大的责任,但我们有一个非常好的授权,这让事情变得更容易。

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So um, big responsibility, but it's made easier by the fact that we have a mandate a really really good mandate which is uh, basically made by the Ministry of Finance.

尼古拉·坦根: 这个授权基本上是由财政部制定的,它得到了广泛的政治支持。

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And it's got broad politically uh, it's broadly politically anchored so all the political parties agree with what we're doing.

尼古拉·坦根: 这意味着他们不会在错误的时间改变主意,所以这很好。

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It means that they will not change their mind at the wrong time and so that's good.

尼古拉·坦根: 当然,我不是一个人在做,我们有700名员工,一个非常非常棒的团队。

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And then also of course, I don't do it on my own, we are 700 people, uh, really really great team.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,19,000亿挪威克朗确实有很多零,但你并不会真正考虑这些数字。

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And um, and then you know, um, yes, there are a lot of zeros, uh, in uh, you know, 19,000 billion Norwegian Groner, but you don't really think about those numbers, right?

尼古拉·坦根: 你会思考如何做正确的事情,如何执行正确的流程,然后数字自然会随之而来。

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You think about doing the right thing, doing the right processes and then the numbers would follow.

主持人: 是的,我知道一些指导原则是长期导向和多元化,但请谈谈你们如何决定在哪里投资,以及在哪里不投资。

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Yeah, I I know that that some of the guiding principles are to be long-term oriented and diversified, but talk a little bit about how you decide where to invest, yeah, and how do you decide where not to invest?

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,所以,再次强调,财政部有这个授权,但同时我们必须以道德的方式进行投资。

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Yeah, so um, again, the ministry has this mandate, um, and but at the same time, we have to do it in a in a you know ethical way.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我们有一个独立的道德委员会,它决定了我们不能投资的领域。

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So we have a separate Council of Ethics which decides where we cannot invest.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们不投资煤炭、武器等领域,也有一些国家我们不投资。

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We don't invest in in Coal, uh, weapons and so on and there are some countries where we don't invest.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,你知道,这就是大致的图景。

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And so uh, you know, that's kind of the broad the broad picture.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们非常多元化,我们拥有全球约9,000家公司。

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We are very Diversified, we are we own uh, some 9,000 companies, uh, across the whole world.

尼古拉·坦根: 在欧洲,我们拥有更多一些,接近2.5%到3%的股份。

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In Europe, we own a bit more close to well, two and a half to 3% across Europe.

透明度:建立信任的关键

主持人: 是的,是的,我知道你反复说过的一件事是,你真的致力于成为世界上最透明的投资基金。

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Yeah, yeah, so so I know that one of the things that that that you've said repeatedly is you really aim to be the most transparent investment Fund in the world.

主持人: 谈谈在管理这样的投资基金时,透明度的好处是什么,以及你如何看待透明度这一原则。

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Talk a little bit about the benefits of transparency when you're running an investment pool like this and how you think about you know, transparency as a principle.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,对我来说,透明度是绝对关键的。

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Yeah, I to me transparency is like totally key.

尼古拉·坦根: 透明度能增加信任,你知道,你的客户能看到得越多,他们就越信任你。

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Uh, transparency increases trust, you know, if the more uh, your clients can see the more they trust you.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们每年两次披露我们所有的持仓。

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We uh, disclose every holding we have twice a year.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们是世界上最透明的基金,实际上有一个透明度世界锦标赛。

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Um, and we are the most transparent fun in the world, there's actually a world championship in transparency.

主持人: 是吗?

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Is there?

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,有一段时间,我不知道这是我正在从事的运动。

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Yeah, and for for a period of time didn't know that that's that's the sport I'm doing, uh, now for a while.

尼古拉·坦根: 加拿大人曾是第一名,我想,嘿,加拿大人在冰球上击败我们没关系,但在透明度上击败我们就不行。

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The Canadians were number one and I thought, hey, it's fine that the Canadians beat us in ice hockey, but it's not fine that they beat us in transparency.

主持人: 嗯,我不知道他们在冰球上击败你是否真的没关系,但是,去年我们第一次成为了世界冠军。

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Well, I don't know that it's really fine that they beat you in ice hocky W but so so last year for the first time we we became the world champion.

主持人: 太棒了。

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That's awesome.

气候变化:一项金融风险与投资机遇

主持人: 是的,我想谈谈气候,因为我知道这是你们关注的一个领域。

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Yeah, I want to talk a little bit about climate because I know it's a it's an area of focus for you.

主持人: 谈谈私营部门应该扮演的角色,以及投资者在环境和可持续性方面应该扮演的角色。

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Talk a little bit about the private sector, the role the private sector should play, the role investors play when it comes to the environment and sustainability.

主持人: 你如何看待围绕这些长周期转型问题的长期投资机会?

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Do you do you see how do you think about the long-term investment opportunity around these long cycle transition issues?

尼古拉·坦根: 嗯,我们关心气候是因为它是一种金融风险(Financial Risk: 对金融资产或负债价值造成负面影响的可能性)。

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Well, so so we care about climate because it is a Financial Risk.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们现在在许多大宗商品价格中都看到了这一点。

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Mhm, we see it now in a lot of the commodity uh prices.

尼古拉·坦根: 你在咖啡、橄榄油、橙汁等所有这些东西中都看到了,你知道,价格正在上涨,因为气候导致收成变差。

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You see it in you know, coffee, olive oil, orange juice, all these kind of things where you know, the prices are going up because Harvest harvests are worse because of the climate.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,气候和金融市场之间的联系与以往不同。

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So they are so climate and the financial Market is linked in a different way than it has been before.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我们花了很多时间与我们的公司合作,确保他们在气候方面做正确的事情。

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Um, so we spend a lot of time working with our companies making sure they do the right thing on climate.

尼古拉·坦根: 我知道美国出现了一些反弹,但在欧洲我们没有看到同样程度的反弹,当然在挪威,我们继续持有与以前相同的观点。

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I appreciate there's been a backlash in the US we haven't really seen that to the same extent in Europe and for sure in Norway we continue to to have the same opinions as we've had uh before.

尼古拉·坦根: 我认为在这个领域也有投资机会,而且现在比以前更好了。

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I think there are investment opportunities in that space as well now which are better than before.

尼古拉·坦根: 四年前我们获得了投资可再生能源基础设施的机会。

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We got uh the opportunity to uh invest in renewable infrastructure four years ago.

尼古拉·坦根: 最初我们非常非常慢,因为我们认为回报太低,太多人改变交易,但现在情况变了。

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And in the beginning we were just like really really slow because we thought the returns were too low, too many people changing the deals, but now that's changed.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我们认为这个领域有更好的回报,供应也更多一些,这样你就可以部署更多的资本。

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So we think there are better returns in the space, there's a bit more supplies, so you can deploy more capital.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们已经加强了团队,并在可再生能源基础设施方面做了更多工作。

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And we have beefed up the team and and doing more than that in renewable infrastructure.

五年任期的成就与经验教训

主持人: 具体来说,或者更广泛地说,谈谈你五年任期内的主要成就和最重要的经验教训。

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Specifically or or more broadland talk a little your your five years in kind of frame for me what are what are a handful of kind of key accomplishments in these first five years and what are a handful of the most important learnings?

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,首先,这不只是我一个人的功劳,而是整个大团队的努力。

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Yeah, um, yeah, so first of all, it's it's not me, right?

尼古拉·坦根: 但我们关注了什么呢?

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It's about uh, uh, the big team, but what have we focused in on?

尼古拉·坦根: 当然,我们关注了业绩,因为没有业绩,我们就没有存在的理由。

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Well, we focused in on on performance of course, because without performance we have no reason to be.

尼古拉·坦根: 这很大程度上是关于从错误中学习,我们创建了这个投资模拟器(Investment Simulator: 一种通过数据反馈帮助投资者识别弱点和不良习惯的工具)。

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Um, and it's very much about learning from mistakes, it's we've created this uh, investment simulator where all the data from every PM is up in up in the cloud.

尼古拉·坦根: 所有投资组合经理(PM: Portfolio Manager)的数据都上传到云端,当你想要做出决策时,所有你的弱点、所有你的坏习惯都会反馈给你。

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And when you want to make a decision, you get it all fed back to you, all your weaknesses, all your bad habits.

尼古拉·坦根: 比如,你是不是通常卖亏损股太晚,卖盈利股太早?

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You know, are you normally uh, selling losers too late, are you selling winners too early?

尼古拉·坦根: 当你交易时,所有这些信号都会反馈给你,所以这是一个重大的发展,现在它正在改变投资行为。

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When you trade, you basically get all these signals fed back to you and so that's been a big development which is now starting to change investment Behavior.

主持人: 这真的很酷,非常好。

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It's really cool, very good.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们还在努力让人们在交易中更具逆向思维,并更具长期性。

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Um, we're also working on getting people to be more contrarian in the trades they do and more longterm.

尼古拉·坦根: 你知道,最困难的事情就是保持长期性。

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You know, the most difficult thing is to be longterm.

尼古拉·坦根: 为什么这么难?

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Why is it so difficult?

尼古拉·坦根: 你周一来上班,然后回家告诉你的丈夫,他问你今天做了什么,你说什么也没做。

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Why you come to work on a Monday and it's just like you come home and you tell your husband, you know, and he asks you what did you do today?

尼古拉·坦根: 周二什么也没做,周三什么也没做,周四什么也没做,你知道,你感觉不太好。

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Well, I did nothing, you know, Tuesday nothing, nothing, Wednesday, nothing, Thursday, nothing.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以有时候最好的事情就是不要做太多,但这非常有利可图。

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You know, you don't feel great about it and so sometimes the best thing is not to do very much, but it's very profitable.

尼古拉·坦根: 你知道,复利效应真是太神奇了,复利,复利是一种强大的力量。

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You know, compounding is just amazing, compounding compounding is a powerful thing unb that's what we're doing on investment side.

尼古拉·坦根: 在人员方面,我们更多地发展员工,我们正在招聘,我们正在招聘更优秀的人。

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On the people side, more development of people, we are recruiting, we are recruiting better people.

尼古拉·坦根: 在沟通方面,我们更加透明,更多的内部沟通,更多的外部沟通。

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On the communication side, much more transparency, more internal communication, more external communication.

尼古拉·坦根: 然后是运营的稳健性,更好,你知道,更注重网络安全。

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And then operational robustness better and you know, more focus in on Cyber.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我们做了很多。

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So we we just done a lot of.

投资者对话与积极所有权

主持人: 谢谢,你是一个股东,你提到了9,000家公司,我知道高盛是其中之一。

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Thanks, you're a shareholder, you you mentioned 9,000 companies, I know Goldman Sachs is one of those companies.

主持人: 我们对此表示感谢,感谢你们的辛勤工作。

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We appreciate that, we thank you for all your hard work.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们正在努力工作,因为你们也在努力工作,我们也在努力工作。

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We're working, we're working hard and because you guys are working hard, we're working hard, we're working hard.

主持人: 谈谈投资者对话,什么能促成有效的投资者对话,以及投资者对话对你们与公司而言有多重要?

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What um, talk a little bit about investor dialogue, what makes for an effective investor dialogue and how important is investor dialogue for you with respect to the companies?

尼古拉·坦根: 这非常非常重要。

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It's very very important.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们每年与公司举行3,000多次会议。

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Um, we have more than 3,000 meetings a year with our companies.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们出席近10,000场年度股东大会(AGM: Annual General Meeting),对120,000项提案进行投票。

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We uh, you know, we turn up at uh, nearly 10,000 agms, we vote on uh, 120,000 proposals.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们有一个庞大的机制来做这些事情。

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We know we got a be big machinery, uh, doing this.

尼古拉·坦根: 我认为关键在于有非常明确的期望,所以我们将其写在期望文件中。

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I think the key is to have very clear expectations and so we have this set up in uh, set out in expectation documents.

尼古拉·坦根: 重要的是要长期保持一致,这样你作为首席执行官就知道我们不会一直改变主意。

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It's important to be consistent over time so that you as a CEO know that we are not like changing our mind all the time.

主持人: 我发现你们与我们的对话中有一点非常有趣,那就是你们的团队在与我们打交道时,他们深入细节,真正努力理解我们如何思考问题。

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One of the things I found very interesting about our dialogue with you is you know, I I would say you know, your team when they deal with us, they are deep in the weeds Deep In The Weeds, um, on really trying to understand how we're thinking about things.

主持人: 你们是按行业部门来做,还是如何做到的?

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Do you how do do you do that by industry sector, do you do that how do you do that in the context of we have?

尼古拉·坦根: 我们有行业部门,我们有一些非常强大的部门,我认为我们的银行团队非常出色。

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We have we have industry sectors, we got some really strong sectors, I think our banking team is uh, is really superb.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我们就是这样做的。

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Um, so that's how we do it.

尼古拉·坦根: 现在,作为所有者,你有两种处理问题的方式:你可以出售你的持股,或者你可以进行对话。

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Now, you know, there are two ways you can deal with problems as a as an owner, you can just you can sell your holding or you can go into a dialogue.

尼古拉·坦根: 那么,通过出售持股,你能解决什么问题呢?

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Now what what kind of problem do you solve by selling your holding?

尼古拉·坦根: 什么也解决不了。

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Nothing.

尼古拉·坦根: 比如说,现在你有一家公司在气候方面做得不好,你卖掉了,所有人都卖掉了持股,会发生什么?

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You know, let's say now you have a company which is doing, you know, not so good stuff on climate, you sell everybody sells the holding, what happens?

尼古拉·坦根: 嗯,这家公司最终会落入那些不关心的人手中,所以这不好。

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Well, you the company ends up in the hands of people who don't care, you know, so it's just not good.

尼古拉·坦根: 最好是持有它,进行对话,倡导和参与。

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It's better to hold it and to talk and to Advocate and to engage.

尼古拉·坦根: 这就像你在家里遇到问题时,你可以选择放弃,或者你可以尝试解决它。

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It's like when you feel like when you have a problem at home, you can just is kind of sold off or you can try to fix it.

尼古拉·坦根: 尝试解决它通常是更好的策略。

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That's the try to fix it is a better strategy often.

主持人: 是的,先倾听和理解。

View/Hide Original English

Yeah, listen and understand first.

AI、市场集中度与私人市场

主持人: 是的,是的,所以在2024年上半年,你的基金公布了1,380亿美元的利润,主要得益于大型科技股的加速增长。

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Yeah, yeah, so in the first half of 2024, your fund post posted $138 billion in profit largely and kind of the acceleration of large cap Tech.

主持人: 谈谈人工智能(AI: Artificial Intelligence: 模拟人类智能的机器系统)的未来投资,以及市场集中度的一些风险。

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Talk a little bit let's talk a little bit about AI, yeah, kind of the future of AI investment, what what are some of the risks of concentration in the market?

主持人: 我的意思是,目前,当你审视大型股指数和正在发生的事情时,你会发现巨大的集中度。

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I mean, at the moment, you know, when you you look at kind of the large cap indexes and what's going on, you have enormous concentration.

主持人: 如果你不对这少数几只股票进行超配,你就会表现不佳。

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And if you're not, you know, overweighted to this handful of stocks, you're going to unperformed.

主持人: 谈谈你对此的看法。

View/Hide Original English

Talk a little bit about how you thinking about.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,这是我们从未见过的集中度水平。

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Yeah, it's a it's a level of concentration we've never seen before, right?

尼古拉·坦根: 嗯,如你所知,高度集中在少数几个名字上。

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M uh, as you know, hugely concentrated in very few names.

尼古拉·坦根: 在我看来,这里最大的问题是它们都与相同的地缘政治风险相关联。

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The big problem here in my mind is that they are all linked into the same geopolitical risk.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我们以前从未见过这种集中度,也从未见过与地缘政治风险的这种关联,这非常危险。

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And so we have not seen before one the concentration we seen two the link with geopolitical risk and that's just very risky.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我认为公开市场的风险可能高于私人市场。

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And so I think the risk in the public market is um, probably higher than in the private market now.

主持人: 是的,是的,过去我们看待风险,公开市场风险不高,私人市场风险很高。

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Yeah, yeah, and in the past, you know, we looked at kind of risks well, uh Public Market not risky, private Market very risky.

主持人: 我认为情况可能已经改变了。

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I think perhaps it's changed.

主持人: 既然你提到了私人市场,谈谈私人市场,谈谈上市公司数量减少的事实。

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So talk since you raised the private Market talk a little bit about kind of, you know, private Market talk a little bit about the fact that you know, obviously in public markets, we have a narrowing of lised companies.

主持人: 我想,鉴于作为一家上市公司运营的负担,人们会等待更长时间才将公司推向公开市场。

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Um, we also I think, you know, given the burden of operating, you know, as a public company, um, you know, we have people waiting longer, um, to take markets, you know, take companies to the public market.

主持人: 私人形式的资本供应更多,你如何看待私人市场?

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There's more availability of capital in a private form, how do you think about the private the private markets?

主持人: 你如何看待私人资本的增长?

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How do you think about the growth of private Capital?

主持人: 你认为我们处于何种更多的长期增长阶段?

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Um, where do you think we are, you know, more secular growth?

尼古拉·坦根: 嗯,我认为这非常有趣。

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Well, I think it's very interesting.

尼古拉·坦根: 你知道,据说美国上市公司的数量已经从8,000家减少到4,000家。

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You know, you now have supposedly the number of listed companies in the US has gone from 8,000 to 4,000.

尼古拉·坦根: 你在欧洲也看到了同样的发展,几乎在所有地方都看到了。

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You're seeing the same development in Europe, using it pretty much all over the place.

尼古拉·坦根: 私人市场公司保持私有状态更长时间,它们变得更大等等。

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Private Market companies stay private for longer, they get bigger, uh, and so on.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,不幸的是,这是一个我们不涉足的领域。

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So um, I mean, unfortunately, it's a space where we are not operating.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,所以进入私人市场不在我们的授权范围内,但有一个政治程序,所以它可能会改变,但目前不会。

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Yeah, so it's not in our mandate to be in the private market and but there is a political process, so so it may change, but not for now.

尼古拉·坦根: 嗯,我认为理想情况下,应该两者兼顾。

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Um, you know, I think ideally one should be in in both.

长期回报与复利效应

主持人: 6%的年回报率,这种稳定性和可靠性赢得了挪威人民巨大的信任。

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6% annual returns that of steadiness that reliability has earned enormous trust from the people of Norway.

主持人: 一些批评者可能会说你们可以表现得更好,你如何看待这一点?

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Um, some critics probably say you can perform at a higher rate, yeah, how do you how do you think about that?

主持人: 你如何看待,因为毫无疑问,当你考虑长期回报时,风险回报必须平衡。

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How do you how do you view because there's no question, you know, risk reward has to be balanced when you think about long-term returns.

主持人: 你如何衡量,你如何看待这一点?

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How do you kind of Benchmark how do you think about that?

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,再次回到我们财政部的授权,它大致规定了我们应该如何投资。

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Yeah, again, um, coming back to this uh, mandate that we have for the ministry which in Broad terms, you know, lay out how we should be invested.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们大约70%投资于股票,30%投资于债券。

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We have we have roughly 70 % in equities, 30% in bonds.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们有一个房地产投资组合,在全球拥有大约一千处房产。

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We have uh, a real estate portfolio where we got like thousand properties around the world.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们在曼哈顿也有相当多的所有权。

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We got quite a lot of ownership on you know air on Manhattan as well.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,如果我们在私人市场,历史回报可能更高,但我们没有。

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Um, so um, it the returns could have been higher historically had we been in private markets, but uh, you know, we are not.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们在过去28年中实现了6%到7%的复合增长。

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Um, you know, we have compounded between 6 and 7% for the last 28 years.

尼古拉·坦根: 这很好。

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And um, and that's been good.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,你现在看看基金的价值,基金的三分之一是政府投入的资金价值,三分之二是回报。

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So so you look at the value of the fund now onethird of the fund is uh, the value of money that the government has put in and 2/3 is returns.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,所以这在某种程度上相当惊人。

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Yeah, so it's quite it's quite amazing.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们发现了两次石油,一次在挪威大陆架,第二次在金融市场。

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In a way, we found oil twice, one on the Norwegian shelf y second time in financial markets.

主持人: 是的,当你考虑风险回报时,你知道,在很长一段时间内,当你考虑复利效应时,特别是当你拥有一项伟大的资产时,你会永远拥有它吗?

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Yeah, when you think about um, kind of risk reward, you know, over a long period of time and you think about compounding, you know, in particular when you own a great asset, will you own it forever?

主持人: 你是否觉得如果你真的拥有一项不可思议的资产,你会说我们要拥有它50年?

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Do you feel like if you really had an incredible asset, you say we're going to own this for 50 years?

尼古拉·坦根: 就我个人而言,是的。

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Uh, personally, yes.

尼古拉·坦根: 这就是我构建投资组合的方式。

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Mhm, that's the way I would construct the portfolio.

尼古拉·坦根: 现在,当你的投资组合经理以三年滚动业绩为激励时,很难让他们不进行大量交易。

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Now when you have portfolio managers who are incentivized on a let's say three-year rolling basis, it's difficult to get people not to trade very much.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我们试图延长这个时间范围。

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And so we try to extend the time Horizon on this.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们可能会在薪酬中加入一个五年期的元素,我认为你需要这样做才能让人们采取更长远的视角。

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Um, we are probably going to put in a a fiveyear element in the comp um, which I think you need to do to get people to kind of take a longer view.

尼古拉·坦根: 采取长期视角,因为当你采取长期视角时,你会做出更少的决策。

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A longterm view, because you take a longer term view, um, you make fewer decisions.

尼古拉·坦根: 你做出的决策越少,它们往往就越好。

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The fewer decisions you make the better that tend to be.

尼古拉·坦根: 你知道,如果你一个月只做一次决策,它往往会更好,如果你一天做十次决策。

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You know, if you make one decision a month, it tends to be better and if you make 10 a day.

主持人: 当然,你当然会讨厌听到这个,但你节省了交易佣金。

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Right, sure, you save of course, uh, I mean of course you you would hate to hear this, but you save trading commission.

主持人: 我并不讨厌听到这个,因为我认为这从根本上是正确的。

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And so I don't really hate to hear it because I think it's I think it's fundamentally right.

主持人: 我喜欢这样一个事实,有如此多的激励机制实际上迫使人们围绕资本创造速度。

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I you know, I love the fact though that there are so many incentive schemes that actually force people to create velocity around Capital.

主持人: 但你知道,我从未真正理解的一件事是,当你思考整个私人资本市场的结构时,它实际上是为了创造资本的速度而构建的。

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But I you know, one of the things it's one of the things I've never really understood is when you think about the way the whole private Capital Market is structured, it's actually structured to create velocity of capital.

主持人: 我认为,大多数养老基金,举一个广泛的例子,与你完全无关,但大多数养老基金的负债期限要长得多。

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And you know, I think you know, I think most Pension funds just to take a broad example, not specific to you at all, but most Pension funds, you know, have much much longer dat of liabilities.

主持人: 所以,你知道,如果你将资金分配给一个私募股权经理,仅仅选择一种形式的私人资本,为什么你宁愿他们持有某个东西四五年,并有一个激励系统来围绕它创造速度,而不是试图找到他们拥有一家可以在8%到10%的复合增长率下增长的伟大公司?

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And so you know, why if you're allocating your money to a private Equity manager just to pick one, you know, one form of private Capital, why would you rather that they own something for four or five years and have an incentive system create velocity around it instead of to try to find they own a great company that can compound at 8 to 10%?

主持人: 好的,你希望他们持有它30年或40年,但很少有,整个金融市场的激励系统并非为此而设。

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Okay, you want them to own it for 30 or 40 years, but there's very little the whole financial Market incentive system is not set up to do that.

尼古拉·坦根: 绝对如此,但一切都在加速,你知道,交易更频繁。

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Absolutely, but everything is moving faster, you know, there's more frequent trading.

主持人: 当然。

View/Hide Original English

Sure.

尼古拉·坦根: 你知道,你可能会惊讶地听到,但在过去的30年里,人们说话和走路的速度快了10%。

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Um, you know, uh, you'd be surprised to hear, but over the last 30 years, people talk and walk 10% faster.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以你测量一个城市里行走的平均速度,与30年前相比,你快了10%。

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So you measure average speed of walking in a city and um, you know, compared to 30 years ago, you are 10% faster.

主持人: 我的意思是,不是你,但我一直走得很快。

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I mean, not you, but I've always been a fast Walker.

尼古拉·坦根: 你一直都很快。

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You've always been fast.

主持人: 我认为我现在走得和30年前一样快。

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I think I I think IED just as fast now as I did 30 years ago.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,我不知道公司是否应该,我现在可能会说得慢一点,因为不幸的是,现在人们都在听我说的每一句话,所以我必须说得慢一点。

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Yeah, I'm I'm wondering whether the companies Sho I might talk a little bit slower now because unfortunately now people are listening to everything I say, so I've got to talk slower.

尼古拉·坦根: 但是,但是,走路的事情,人们,人们肯定有一种强度。

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But but um, but but the walking things into people people, there's certainly an intensity.

主持人: 是的,特别是在市场周围,有一种34年前不存在的强度。

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Yeah, especially around markets, there's an intensity that didn't exist 34.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,是市场,一切都,你知道,我们总是开着手机,24/7,更多活动,是的,24/7是肯定的。

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Yeah, it's it's Market, it's all you know, we always on uh, you know, mobile phones, uh, uh, it's 247 more activ, yeah, 247 for sure.

领导力洞察:来自《In Good Company》播客

主持人: 让我们换个话题,你在2022年推出了这个很棒的播客《In Good Company》,全部是关于领导力的。

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Let's let's shift gears, you launched this terrific podcast in Good Company in 2022, all about leadership.

主持人: 我是第二个嘉宾,你是第二个嘉宾,我想说我很幸运能成为嘉宾,谢谢你让我成为第二个嘉宾。

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Um, I was Lu the second guest was you, I was the second guest, I was say I was lucky to be a guest, thank you for making me the second guest.

主持人: 我没意识到我是第二个嘉宾,第一个嘉宾是谁?

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I didn't realize I was the second guest, who was the first guest?

尼古拉·坦根: 是BP的首席执行官。

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Uh, was the CEO BP.

尼古拉·坦根: 但是当你来的时候,你知道,真的很酷,因为你知道,你开始说这是一个试点,我不知道它是否会成功,然后砰的一声,你请来了高盛的首席执行官。

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Oh, but when you came on, you know, it was really cool because you know, you started saying it was a pilot, I didn't know whether it was good fly or not and uh, and bang you get the SEO of Goldman Sachs.

尼古拉·坦根: 哇,大事件,你知道,所以我们当时想,嘿,这也许可以成为一件严肃的事情,现在它是世界上最大的商业播客之一。

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Wow, big deal, you know, so then we thought, hey, this could perhaps be a serious thing and now it's the biggest now is one of the leading business podast in the world.

尼古拉·坦根: 你知道,其中之一,是的,这很有趣。

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You know, one of them and uh, uh, yeah, it's it's fun.

主持人: 不,这是一个大播客,但我的意思是,想想这个,有人听过播客吗?

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No, it's a big podcast, but I mean think about this, okay, have anybody listen to any anybody listen anybody heard the podcast?

主持人: 是的,首席执行官,你们其他人怎么了?

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Yeah, the the CEO what's what's wrong with the rest of you?

主持人: 开始听播客吧,世界上最大的主权财富基金的首席执行官,也是高盛的重要股东,打电话说,嘿,你愿意上我的播客吗?

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Start listening to the podcast, the CEO of the largest Sovereign wealth fund and a significant shareholder in Goldman Sachs calls and says, hey, will you go on my podcast?

主持人: 让我考虑一下,好的,我的意思是,那不是一个艰难的要求。

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Let me think about it, okay, I me that was not that was not a tough ask.

尼古拉·坦根: 是你,我真的很惊讶,因为你五分钟内就回复了。

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It was you I was really impressed because you responded within five minutes.

主持人: 好的,我尽量做到非常及时响应,但我们来谈谈播客吧。

View/Hide Original English

Okay, well, I I try to be very very responsive, but let's let's talk about the the podcast.

主持人: 是的,你已经采访了几十位首席执行官,几十位首席执行官。

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Yeah, you've interviewed dozens of CEOs at this point, dozens of CEOs.

主持人: 你看到了哪些共同点?

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Yeah, what similarities do you see?

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,这非常有趣,因为当你把他们分解成碎片,然后抛向空中,看看他们落在哪里时,首席执行官们有很多共同点。

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Yeah, it's uh, very interesting because when you kind of cut them up into pieces and throw them up in the air and see where they land, it's uh, CEOs have a lot of uh, similarities, right?

尼古拉·坦根: 他们非常注重韧性(Grit: 毅力与恒心),通常具有高水平的能量。

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Um, there is a lot of focus on uh, on grit, there is generally high level of energy.

尼古拉·坦根: 我会说好奇心在榜单上非常靠前。

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I would say curiosity is very high up on the list.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,是的,他们有很多共同点。

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So um, yeah, they have quite a little things in common.

尼古拉·坦根: 好的领导力正在改变和发展吗?

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Is good leadership changing and evolving?

尼古拉·坦根: 我认为是,我认为是。

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I think it is, I think it is.

尼古拉·坦根: 我认为现在更注重倾听技巧,更注重同理心,更注重普遍地让与你共事的人参与到战略制定中。

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I think there is um, more focus in on listening skills, there is more on empathy, um, there is more on generally involving uh, you know, the people you work with in strategy development and so on.

尼古拉·坦根: 我认为这使得实际执行变得更容易。

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And I think it makes it easier to actually execute.

尼古拉·坦根: 我还认为同理心元素比以往任何时候都更重要,在人工智能时代,我们更要依靠那些使我们成为人类的特质。

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And I also think the empathy element uh, I think is more important than ever before in a time of AI that we lean on what it is that makes us human.

尼古拉·坦根: 然后我认为印度领导者有一个非常有趣的地方,你知道,那些有印度背景的人,因为他们突破了玻璃天花板,接管了整个硅谷。

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And then I think there is a really interesting thing with the Indian leaders, you know, people with Indian backgrounds because they kind of broke through the glass ceiling and taken over the whole you know, Silicon Valley, right?

尼古拉·坦根: 那么他们带来了什么呢?

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So what what what is it that they bring?

尼古拉·坦根: 嗯,我认为他们对自己在做什么更了解。

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Well, I think they are more uh, in the know in what they're doing.

尼古拉·坦根: 有一种信念认为公司比他们自己更重要,他们非常注重同理心。

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Um, there is something that the firm is bigger than themselves, uh, there is a lot of focus on empathy.

尼古拉·坦根: 你知道,比如萨蒂亚·纳德拉(Satya Nadella)就谈到了巨大的同理心,非常重视这一点。

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You know, such as sa Adella who talks about a huge empathetic very big on that.

尼古拉·坦根: 而且同理心和执行力之间没有权衡,你知道,它们是相辅相成的。

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Um, and that there is no uh, there is no uh, trade-off between empathy and execution, you know, it goes hand in hand.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我认为领导力正在发展。

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So I I I think leadership is moving.

尼古拉·坦根: 不同地区有差异吗?

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Are there differences in regions?

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,你知道,我猜美国领导者可能更外向一些,可能比我们在欧洲承担更多的风险。

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Uh, yes, you know, I suspect uh, us leaders are bit more extrovert, uh, uh, probably take a bit more risks than we do in Europe.

尼古拉·坦根: 斯堪的纳维亚,你认为这是一种积极的特质吗?

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Um, Scandinavian is you think that's a positive?

尼古拉·坦根: 嗯,我实际上认为是的,这是一种积极的特质,它解释了我们在欧洲遇到一些问题的原因。

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Well, I actually think it's yes, it is a positive and it explains part of why we have a bit of a problem in Europe.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们没有承担足够的风险,你知道,这与监管等因素结合在一起。

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Uh, we don't take enough risks, you know, there is is combined with regulation and so on.

尼古拉·坦根: 但美国的风险偏好和雄心水平确实正在推动增长。

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But the risk appetite and the level of ambition in America is really driving growth.

主持人: 是的,这里的创新经济以及人们创业、承担风险、创新、推动增长的意愿,无疑正在为美国经济做出贡献。

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Yeah, the Innovation economy here and the willingness of people to start businesses, take risk, innovate, Drive growth is definitely contributing to kind of US economic.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,绝对如此,而且也是。

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Yeah, absolutely, but also also the absolutely.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,这有点文化差异。

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And so so that's a bit of a cultural difference.

主持人: 是的,当你审视这些领导力课程时,你知道,当你与不同的领导者交谈时,你是否发现自己以某种方式将其融入到你管理基金的方式中?

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Yeah, when you look at these Leadership Lessons, you know, as you talk to different leaders, do you find yourself incorporating it somehow into the way you run the fund?

尼古拉·坦根: 完全如此。

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Totally.

主持人: 你能举一个具体的例子吗?

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Can you give a concrete example?

尼古拉·坦根: 我试图整合我学到的所有好东西,这真的非常有趣。

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I tried to trying to integrate all the good stuff I learned, it's really really uh interesting, right?

尼古拉·坦根: 我的意思是,我们试图从任何地方“偷师”。

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I I mean, we we try to steal everywhere we can.

主持人: 谈谈一些,我的意思是,不是钱,而是想法。

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Talk about some, I mean, not money, but I mean ideas.

尼古拉·坦根: 顺便说一句,模仿是最高的赞美形式。

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By the way, you know, imitation is the highest form of FL.

主持人: 绝对如此,完全如此。

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Absolutely, totally.

主持人: 谈谈你最喜欢的一些嘉宾,他们作为领导者有哪些共同特点?

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Talk talk about some of your favorite guests, what characteristics do they share As Leaders?

尼古拉·坦根: 嗯,我认为,除了你之外,当然。

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Uh, well, I think uh, I mean, in addition to you of course.

主持人: 把我放在一边。

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Yeah, put me aside.

尼古拉·坦根: 不,我认为你可以把他们分成不同的类别。

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Um, no, I think you can put them into different categories.

尼古拉·坦根: 当然,与科技领导者交谈非常棒。

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Of course, speaking to the tech leaders is amazing, right?

尼古拉·坦根: 所以你和萨姆·奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)、黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)、比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)等人交谈,他们基本上都在展望未来。

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So you speak to Sam Olman, yanson hang, Bill Gates and so on and and they they basically look into the future, you know, um, they see what it looks like and they and and you learn that.

尼古拉·坦根: 我认为一些来自金融以外领域的人也很有趣。

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I think some of the people who are from different different places than actually Finance is quite fun, right?

尼古拉·坦根: 我们请来了世界顶尖的国际象棋选手马格努斯·卡尔森(Magnus Carlsen),比较国际象棋策略和投资策略,这就像哇,你知道,你什么时候承担风险?

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We did Magnus Carlson, the best chess player in the world comparing chess strategy with investment strategy which like wow, you know, when do you take risks?

尼古拉·坦根: 你是在输了之后承担更多风险,还是承担更少风险?

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Do you take more risks after you lost or or do you take less risk?

尼古拉·坦根: 你知道,这与我们通常的做法非常不同,所以从中有很多学习。

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You know, very oppos very different from what what we typically do, so just a lot of uh, learnings from that.

尼古拉·坦根: 斯托尔滕贝格(Stoltenberg),北约秘书长,谈论地缘政治等等。

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Um, stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General on geopolitics and so on.

尼古拉·坦根: 然后是一些真正的长期思考者,比如瑞典的瓦伦堡家族(Walberg's),非常有趣。

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And then um, some of the real long-term thinkers like the walberg's in Sweden, really interesting.

尼古拉·坦根: 我会说,也许伟大的投资者最显著的特点是信念和逆向思维的能力,不考虑别人的想法,然后能够改变,以及固执和能够改变主意的结合,这真的非常罕见。

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I would say it's perhaps the one thing that characterizes great investors, it's uh, conviction and the ability to be contrarian and not think about what other people think and then be able to change and the combination stubborn and be able to change your mind really really rare.

主持人: 这是一个很棒的描述方式。

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That's a great great way to frame it.

主持人: 你能分享一些关于领导者在接任新工作时应该优先考虑的步骤的建议吗?

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What advice can you share about steps leaders should prioritize when they take a new job to lead an organization?

主持人: 我知道你接任这份工作时,实际上有一个路线图或优先事项清单,你想要遵循。

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I understand when you took this job, you actually kind of had a road map or a list of priorities that you wanted to follow.

主持人: 你对此有什么建议吗?

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You have do you have advice around that?

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,这很棒。

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Yeah, it was great.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我得到了这份工作,我打电话给我遇到过的最好的首席执行官,我说,嘿,我得到了这份新工作,我该怎么办?

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So I got this job, uh, I rang the best C I've ever met and I said, hey, I got this new job, what should I do?

尼古拉·坦根: 他说,嗯,你应该做的事情很简单,你首先必须与公司里的很多人交谈,在你开始工作之前就做。

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Like well, what you should do that's easy, you first have to talk to a lot of people in The Firm, do it before you start your job.

尼古拉·坦根: 然后你表现出尊重,他们需要了解你,你需要了解他们,你会得到更多的数据点,所以你会做出更好的决策。

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Then you show respect, uh, they need need to get to know you and you need to get to know them, you get more data points, so you make better decisions.

尼古拉·坦根: 他们感到被包容,感到被倾听,这样当你做出改变时,他们会支持你。

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They feel included, they feel heard, so that when you CH make changes, they will be with you.

尼古拉·坦根: 然后你组建一个领导小组,在你的第一年内不要从外部招聘人员。

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Then you put together a leader group, you do not hire people from the outside during your first year.

尼古拉·坦根: 你定义公司的DNA(DNA: 核心价值观和文化),并向公司里的其他人展示你尊重他们所做的工作。

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You define you define your DNA of the firm and you show everybody else in the firm that you respect what they do.

尼古拉·坦根: 然后你作为一个联合领导小组进行改变,你绝不能独自行动,因为你可能会触发所谓的企业免疫系统(Corporate Immune System: 组织对变革的抵制),他们基本上会把你排挤出去。

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And then you make changes as a combined leadership group, you mustn't do it on your own because you can trigger what is called the kind of the corporate immune system where basically they squeeze you out.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以你作为一个联合小组进行,然后你选择几件事,不要太多,而且不要太快地进行改变。

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So you do it as a combined group and then you pick a few things, not too many and don't do them, don't make them the changes too fast.

尼古拉·坦根: 那些失败的人是那些试图做太多、太快的人。

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The people who fail other the people who try to do too much too fast.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,所以我们做出了改变,我认为有两次我们觉得我们行动有点太快了,然后我们放慢了速度。

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Yeah, and so we we made changes and I think twice we felt that we were moving a bit too fast and we slow down.

尼古拉·坦根: 但我认为这就是做事的方式。

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But I think that's the way to do it.

韧性与代际差异

主持人: 你提到了韧性,我一直认为韧性,你知道,不仅对领导力,而且对生活和事业的成功都至关重要。

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You you mentioned Grit tole i' I've I've always thought the grit is a you know not just for leadership but kind of for success in life in business, you know, the grit is a hugely hugely you know valuable personal characteristic.

主持人: 谈谈你如何看待韧性,以及它在人们应对挑战时扮演的角色。

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Talk a little bit about how you think about grit and how it how it plays a role as people approach challenges.

尼古拉·坦根: 啊,这绝对是关键,它就是你如何应对事物。

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Ah, it's it's totally key, it's just how you cope with things, right?

尼古拉·坦根: 我认为这有时很难筛选,但当你招聘时,你会看到人们一直在做什么。

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I think you can it's it's sometimes difficult to screen for it, but you when you hire, you see what people have been doing.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我正在面试一个参加暑期项目的家伙,他问我,嘿,你夏天都做了什么?

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So I was interviewing this guy for uh, for a summer program, he like hey, what are you um, what have you done during your Summers?

尼古拉·坦根: 我在一家面包店工作。

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I worked in a bakery.

主持人: 好的。

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Okay.

尼古拉·坦根: 但我的意思是,连续七个夏天,是的,我的意思是,你知道,你需要在凌晨3点起床才能在面包店工作,超级早,超级早。

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But I'm mean, uh, seven summers in a row, yeah, I mean, do you know when you need to wake up to work in a bakery?

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我们试图找到它,我认为,你知道,我们生活在一个可能比以前韧性更少的世界里。

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It's like 3: in the morning, super early, super early, so we try to find it and I think you know, we are in a world where there is perhaps a bit less grit than before.

尼古拉·坦根: 年轻一代平均而言,根据专家说法,韧性较少,因为他们受到父母的保护。

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Um, the younger generation have uh, on average according to the Specialists a bit less great because they've been protected by the parents.

尼古拉·坦根: 你知道,父母承担了所有的决策和问题,所以我们遇到的问题较少。

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You know, parents are taking all the you know, a lot of the decisions and the problems and so therefore we have had less um, problems to cope with.

主持人: 你认为这是永久性的还是周期性的?

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You think that's you think that's permanent or you think that's cyclical?

尼古拉·坦根: 嗯,这很有趣,但我确实认为这也解释了一些事情,你知道,现在年轻人不容易,可能是因为你受到了太多的保护。

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Well, so that's interesting U but I do think it also it explains some of the you know, it's not easy to be young these days and it could be that you just have had too much protection.

尼古拉·坦根: 我认为是周期性的,因为我认为下一代会说,嘿,你知道吗,我的父母把我搞砸了,我肯定不会犯同样的错误。

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I think it's cyclical because I think the next generation is just like, hey, you know what, my parents kind of screwed me up, I'm certainly not going to do the same mistake.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我认为他会进入那种状态。

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And so I think he's going to get you know, into that kind of stuff.

尼古拉·坦根: 换句话说,我的父母根本不在乎我在做什么,你知道,我的意思是他们基本上说,街灯亮了就回家。

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In other words, my parents didn't get a hoot what I was doing, you know, I mean they basically said come home when the street lights go on.

主持人: 绝对如此,好的,那肯定不是我的孩子们成长的方式。

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Absolutely, okay, that certainly wasn't the way my kids grow up.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,我的意思是,你知道,我记得我父亲,他说,尼古拉,你听说过对冲基金吗?

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Yeah, I mean, you know, my I remember my father, he said, uh, Nikolai, have you heard about the hedge fund?

尼古拉·坦根: 他说,爸爸,我已经为对冲基金工作了十年了。

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He like Daddy, I've been I worked for hedg for 10 years now.

欧洲竞争力与监管挑战

主持人: 换个话题,你对欧洲的竞争力充满热情,你刚才谈到创新和监管时说的话很有趣。

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Shift gears, you're passionate about European competitiveness and it was interesting what you said a few moments ago when we were talking about you know, innovation and and regulation.

主持人: 我的意思是,我只是观察到,你知道,我最近看到的一件事,让我觉得欧盟做得非常错误,那就是当监管基础设施出台时,它说我们必须保护欧洲免受人工智能的侵害。

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I mean, I just I I would just observe one of the things that that you know, I saw you know, recently that just kind of I I I thought you know, the European Union got so wrong was when the regulatory infrastructure came out and said we have to protect Europe from AI.

主持人: 这几乎是相反的,我们如何鼓励欧洲承担风险并投资人工智能?

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It's almost like the opposite how do we encourage Europe to be taking risks and investing in in AI?

主持人: 谈谈欧洲如何才能更具竞争力。

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Talk a little bit about what Europe can do to be more competitive.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,这是一个非常非常困难的问题。

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Yeah, it's a very very difficult question, right?

尼古拉·坦根: 我的意思是,关于人工智能,我们认为它需要某种监管和监督。

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Um, I mean on AI, we think it needs some kind of Regulation and oversight.

尼古拉·坦根: 但问题是,在欧洲我们有很多监管,在我看来,每一项监管本身都很好。

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But the thing is that in Europe, we have a lot of Regulation and in my mind regulations are one one one by one, they're pretty good, right?

尼古拉·坦根: 你知道,你监管这个,你监管那个,你监管那个,都有其原因。

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There's a reason why you regulate that and why you regulate that and why you regulate that.

尼古拉·坦根: 但这有点像你走进一家酒吧,每瓶酒尝起来都很好,但当你把所有东西都倒进一个桶里时,味道就不那么好了。

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But it's a bit like you come into a bar and each bottle tastes pretty good, but when you put everything into a bucket, it doesn't taste so good.

主持人: 长岛冰茶。

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Long Island Ice te.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,那只有六种,只有六种,是的,或者随便什么。

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Yeah, well, that's only like six six, it's only six, yeah, or whatever.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以它受到了严格的监管,我认为这种重度监管,加上坚持所有领域、所有国家都应该有巨大竞争的竞争机构,意味着你有一个相当碎片化的市场。

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Uh, so it's very regulated and um, and I think that the kind of the heavy level of Regulation combined with uh, kind of competition Authority which has insisted that there should be huge competition in all areas in all countries means that you have a pretty fragmented market.

尼古拉·坦根: 你知道,每个国家都没有一家大银行,你有三家电信运营商。

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Right, there is not one big Bank, uh, in every country, you have three Telecom operators.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以你基本上在整个欧洲有近30家,而在整个美国只有三家。

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So you basically have nearly 30 in the whole of Europe, whil three in the whole of the us.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以你在很多不同的地方都有相当小的参与者,这意味着它们不具备全球竞争力。

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So you get uh, quite small players in a lot of different places and that means that they are not globally competitive.

尼古拉·坦根: 现在这种情况可能正在改变,希望如此,而且我认为确实如此,但你知道,还有很多事情要做。

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Now this may be changing, uh, hopefully and I think it does, but you know, there is a lot of stuff to do.

尼古拉·坦根: 如果你想读一份好的报告,那就是德拉吉报告(Dragi Report),它在不久前发布了,这份报告真的很棒,它就是我们需要做的事情。

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And if you want to read a good report on this, it's a druggy report which came out a little while back, really report it's just the kind of things we need to do.

尼古拉·坦根: 现在你需要做的事情需要花费大量的金钱,也需要强大的政治意愿,所以我们会看看会发生什么。

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Now what you need to do takes it costs a lot of money and it takes strong political will and so we'll see what happens.

主持人: 领导力需要领导力。

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Leadership takes leadership.

尼古拉·坦根: 领导力需要领导力,是的,这不容易。

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Takes leadership, yeah, it's is not easy.

主持人: 是的,是的,所以在欧洲和美国生活都很好。

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Yeah, yeah, so to live in Europe and in in America, uh, is pretty good.

主持人: 我本来想说欧洲是一个很棒的居住地,它是一个非常棒的居住地。

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Yeah, I was going to say Europe is a great place to live, it's a fantastic place to live.

主持人: 是的,你知道,关于社会结构和那些事情确实有一些非常严肃的问题。

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Yeah, and you know, there are some really serious questions about kind of social Fabric and and those kind of things, right?

主持人: 而且社会保障,当然我们在欧洲有。

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And uh, and social protection, um, and for sure we have that in Europe.

个人学习与生活哲学

主持人: 是的,我的意思是,在过去五六年里,我认识你之后发现的一件令人着迷的事情是,你热爱学习,你在金融之外有很多不同的兴趣,包括你成年后获得的艺术史和社会心理学学位。

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Yeah, I mean, one of the things that I've found fascinating is I've gotten to know you over the last you know, five six years is you love to learn, you have lots of diverse interests, you know, outside of Finance including degrees you've completed as an adult in art history and Social Psychology.

主持人: 谈谈你成年后获得这些学位,以及它如何影响了你的投资方式,如何影响了你对生活的思考过程。

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Talk a little bit about getting those degrees as an adult and how it's affected you know, kind of the way you invest how it's affected kind of your thought process around life.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,这取决于你如何衡量你的生活,有些人用金钱衡量他们的成功。

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Yeah, so it depends on you know, how do you how do you measure your life some people measure their success in in money.

尼古拉·坦根: 我不那样做。

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I don't do that.

尼古拉·坦根: 我认为,你知道,有些人认为,当一个人去世时,拥有最多钱的人就是赢家。

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I think you know, some people think the people who's got the most money when he or she dies is has won.

尼古拉·坦根: 我认为这完全是错误的,我认为他们输了,因为首先他们应该把钱捐出去。

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So I think that's totally wrong, I think think they have lost because first of all, they should have given it away.

尼古拉·坦根: 但我认为,当一个人去世时,知道最多的人才是赢家。

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Right, but I think the person who knows the most when he or she dies, they are the winners.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以你需要尽可能多地学习。

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So you need to learn as much as you can.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,你知道,我一直都在努力学习。

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And so you know, I tried to learn all the time.

尼古拉·坦根: 我认为我研究过的最有趣的事情之一是社会心理学,因为它教你人们如何思考,他们承担什么样的风险,他们生活中的驱动力是什么等等。

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So um, uh, and I think the one of the most interesting thing I've studied is uh, social psychology because there it kind of teaches you how people think, what kind of risk they take, what what are the drivers in their lives and so on.

尼古拉·坦根: 我们已经将很多这些应用到基金的工作中,这就是投资模拟器背后的整个想法。

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And we've put quite a lot of that into work in the fund, uh, it's the whole idea behind the uh, the investment simulator.

尼古拉·坦根: 它只是关于你如何学习,以及你知道作为交易员你的弱点是什么等等,这都来自于此。

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It's just how you can learn and how you know what are your weaknesses as a Trader and so on that comes from that.

尼古拉·坦根: 你如何使用你的分析与直觉或模式识别,这很有趣。

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How you use your analysis versus gut feel or pattern recognition that's interesting.

尼古拉·坦根: 你如何应对逆向思维,所有这些事情。

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You know, how you cope with being contrarian, all these kind of things.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,我认为将事物与金融结合起来非常有趣,现在大多数创新都来自于你如何以新的方式结合信息。

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So um, I do think it's very interesting how you can combine things with finance and most of the Innovations these days come from how you combine uh, you know, information in new ways.

主持人: 我认为这真的很有趣,你知道,你正在触及文化,文化对成功至关重要。

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I think it's really fascinating, you know, you're touching a little bit on culture, culture is hugely important success.

主持人: 我读了一篇挪威作家写的文章,他赞扬了你的领导形式,他说,我引用一下,你体现了现代维京人的形象,总是处于运动中,不断活跃,忙碌,他们热衷于探索。

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I read an article by a Norwegian author who praised your form of leadership saying I quote you embody the image of a modern Viking always in motion, constantly active, busy, they were Keen uh, to explore.

尼古拉·坦根: 是的,他们据说非常注重共识。

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Yeah, um, they supposedly they were very consensus driven.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以我不知道他们是怎么做到的,比如,嘿,我们要抢劫哪个村庄?

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Mh, so I don't know how they did that, like, hey, which Village are we going to pillage?

尼古拉·坦根: 让我们投票吧。

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Uh, let's vote for it.

尼古拉·坦根: 但据说,这解释了为什么北欧国家的领导形式更具共识性,有人告诉我。

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Uh, but um, but supposedly and it explains why why leadership form in the noric countries is more consensual, uh, supposedly somebody told me.

尼古拉·坦根: 不,我认为你想要好奇,我认为你想要四处走动,我认为你想要做不同的事情。

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Yeah, um, no, I think you want you be curious, I think you want to move around, I think you want to do different things.

尼古拉·坦根: 你知道,重要的是不要有太强的习惯,重要的是打破它们。

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You know, it's important not to be not to have too strong habits, it's important to break them up.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,例如,你知道,你什么时候在假期中最快乐?

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So for instance, you know, do you know when during the holiday you are the most happy after it's over?

尼古拉·坦根: 不,第43小时,那是你开始习惯你所在的地方之后。

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No, uh, the the the 43rd hour that's after which you start to get uh, uh, habituated with where you are.

尼古拉·坦根: 当你来到这些阳光明媚、美妙的地方时,哇,蓝色的水,对吧,前43小时真是太棒了,然后它就开始变成习惯。

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As you come to these nice places, really sunny, it's wonderful, wow, Blue Water, right, that is just like amazing for the first 43 hours and then it starts to become habit.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以你需要打破它,你需要做更多的事情。

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And so you need to break it up, you need to do some more things.

尼古拉·坦根: 所以,例如,我现在在纽约住了整个11月,这太棒了,太棒了。

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So for instance, I live in uh, in New York now for the whole of November, it's fantastic, fantastic.

尼古拉·坦根: 我只是,你知道,时代从未如此激动人心。

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I just, you know, times have never been more exciting.

尼古拉·坦根: 我早上醒来,迫不及待地想下床。

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I wake up in the morning, I just cannot way to get out of bed.

尼古拉·坦根: 从未如此激动人心,我们不要忘记这就是我们生活的世界。

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And uh, it's just never been more exciting and let's not forget that this is the world we live in, right?

尼古拉·坦根: 我们的技术变革从未如此之快,地缘政治从未如此激动人心。

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We have uh, technology change has never been faster, geopolitics never more exciting.

尼古拉·坦根: 嘿,美国大选即将到来,也非常激动人心。

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Hey, us election coming up, really exciting too.

主持人: 尼古拉,谢谢你,这太棒了,非常感谢你抽出时间。

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Nikolai, thank you, this has been terrific, really appreciate you taking the time to do it.

尼古拉·坦根: 非常感谢,这很棒,非常感谢你这样做。

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Thank you very much, that was great, really appreciate you doing it.