欢迎与 Kinnevik 共同探讨长线投资
主持人: 大家好,欢迎收听本期关于 Kinnevik 的现场播客,这是一家卓越的瑞典公司。
View/Hide Original English
so hi everybody and welcome to this live podcast with kinik a remarkable Swedish company.
主持人: 这家公司成立于 1936 年,在推动电信、电子商务和医疗保健等多个行业的增长和创新方面拥有悠久传统。
View/Hide Original English
and um this company was founded in 1936 so has a long tradition in driving growth and innovation in various Industries Telecom e-commerce and Healthcare.
主持人: 在 NBIM(Norges Bank Investment Management: 挪威银行投资管理公司)中,我们持有该公司略低于 4% 的股份,相当于略低于 100 万美元。
View/Hide Original English
and at mbim we own just under 4% of the company equivalent to just under $1 million.
主持人: 因此,热烈欢迎首席执行官 Georgi Ganev 和董事长 James Anderson。
View/Hide Original English
so a warm welcome to the CEO Georgie ganv and the chair James Anderson so so um Georgie just before we start what is kinck.
主持人: Georgi,在我们开始之前,请问 Kinnevik 是什么?
View/Hide Original English
Georgie just before we start what is kinck.
Georgi: 就像您说的,我们已经 290 年“高龄”或“年轻”了。
View/Hide Original English
so as you said we are 290 years old or young I suppose uh we have a history of um backing amazing Founders and being part of building businesses across various sectors.
Georgi: 我们在支持杰出创始人和参与建设各行业企业方面有着悠久的历史。
View/Hide Original English
we have a history of um backing amazing Founders and being part of building businesses across various sectors.
Georgi: 我们是上市公司,这意味着我们让公众股东能够接触到快速增长的公司。
View/Hide Original English
um we are publicly listed meaning that we give public shareholders the exposure to fast growing um companies.
Georgi: 我们拥有长远的思维,因为我们的创始家族仍然是主要股东,他们为有血有肉的股东提供了着眼于世代而非季度回报的长远心态。
View/Hide Original English
um and we have a long-term mindset because we also have our founding families still as lead shareholders providing you know shareholders of flesh and blood with long-term mindset looking for returns for Generations rather than quarters that I think in simple terms who we are.
Georgi: 我认为,简单来说,这就是我们。
View/Hide Original English
that I think in simple terms who we are.
Kinnevik 的投资组合演变与长期目标
主持人: 很好,那么这些年来投资组合是如何变化的?
View/Hide Original English
good and how has the portfolio changed over the years.
Georgi: 变化巨大,因为 Kinnevik 内部唯一不变的就是我们不断地自我革新。
View/Hide Original English
it has changed massively uh because the only constant within shinik is that we you know reinvent ourselves.
Georgi: 我们之前经历过多次转型,在过去大约六年里,我们再次将投资组合转向了新的领域。
View/Hide Original English
so we've had a number of transformation Transformations before and for the last six years or so we have again changed the portfolio into new sectors.
Georgi: 医疗保健就是我们在六七年前开始建立的全新领域,因此在过去几年里,投资组合发生了巨大的转变。
View/Hide Original English
so healthc care is was some healthcare was something we built up actually starting you know six six seven years ago complete new sector so transformed the portfolio massively over the last years.
主持人: 那么您每天上班的目标是什么?您的长期目标是什么?
View/Hide Original English
so when you come to work every day what's your goal what is your kind of long-term goal.
Georgi: 我认为我们的终极目标是成为这些领域中我们所投资公司的最佳所有者。
View/Hide Original English
I mean I think our ultimate goal is that we want to be the best owners in these sectors for our companies and I mean.
Georgi: 很多投资者都说他们是长期投资者,但对我来说,这不仅仅是一个持有期,它基本上是我们董事会中推动的讨论类型。
View/Hide Original English
a lot of investors say that they're long-term for me that's not just a holding period time it's basically what type of discussions we are driving in the boardroom.
Georgi: 因此,尤其是在当前这种对增长型企业来说相当困难的市场环境下,我们看到董事会中存在我们不喜欢的短期讨论。
View/Hide Original English
so when I see especially at you know times like this with this quite difficult Market climate for for growth uh Ventures we see short-term discussions in the boardroom that we don't like.
Georgi: 我们希望挑战我们的创始人,并与他们讨论如何扩展功能、扩展产品、将业务拓展到新市场,并进行这些战略性讨论。
View/Hide Original English
we would like to challenge our Founders and discuss with them how to expand features expand products expand Footprints into new markets and have those strategic discussions.
Georgi: 因此,为未来回报而投资并成为那样的所有者,我认为,您需要赢得进行这些战略性讨论的权利。
View/Hide Original English
so invest for returns for the future and becoming that owner I think um is something you you earn that right to have those strategic discussions.
Georgi: 那么,为了让我们被视为,或者被正确地视为一个长期投资者,我们应该问您什么样的问题呢?
View/Hide Original English
so for us to uh be perceived or to be properly perceived as a long-term investor what kind of questions should we ask you.
Georgi: 首先是机会的规模,一个事物能变得多大?
View/Hide Original English
basically the size of the opportunity to start with how large can something become because I think people tend to look at average returns M but forgetting I think that those returns are buil up typically by extreme outcomes so trying to understand the potential and how big something can become I think something that I would welcome us you know welcome um as a discussion.
Georgi: 因为我认为人们倾向于关注平均回报,但却忘记了这些回报通常是由极端结果累积而成的,所以试图理解潜力和事物能变得多大,我认为这是我非常欢迎的讨论。
View/Hide Original English
because I think people tend to look at average returns M but forgetting I think that those returns are buil up typically by extreme outcomes so trying to understand the potential and how big something can become I think something that I would welcome us you know welcome um as a discussion.
主持人: 我看到了一些统计数据,在 100 万家公司中,只有 45 家能够存活 100 年。
View/Hide Original English
now I saw um I saw some stats that um out of 1 million companies only 45 get to a 100 year old.
主持人: 您认为实现这一目标的关键是什么?
View/Hide Original English
what what do you think is a key to in getting there.
Georgi: 首先,我认为每家成功的公司都必须生存下来,所以生存是起点,这是一个很好的起点。
View/Hide Original English
firstly I think every successful company you know survives so you need to survive to start with that's a good starting point yep.
Georgi: 然后,我认为您只需要认识到,如果您追求新颖的商业模式,这正是我们作为投资者与众不同之处。
View/Hide Original English
and then I think you just need to realize that if you're going for novel business models which I think is something that differentiates us as an investor all investor wants to find amazing Founders great you know visions and so forth.
Georgi: 所有投资者都想找到杰出的创始人、伟大的愿景等等。
View/Hide Original English
all investor wants to find amazing Founders great you know visions and so forth.
Georgi: 但如果您支持的是缺乏比较、缺乏同类群体的新颖商业模式,那将非常困难。
View/Hide Original English
but if you're backing novel business models lacking comparisons lacking peer groups it is very difficult.
Georgi: 您承担的是一种不同类型的风险,而且通常情况下,由于时机不对、设置不对、结构不对等原因,它可能不会奏效。
View/Hide Original English
it's a different type of risk you're taking and quite often it turns out that might not work because of wrong timing or wrong setup wrong structure and so forth.
Georgi: 但一旦成功,它就能创造出惊人的成果。
View/Hide Original English
but when it works it can actually create fantastic outcomes.
投资策略与创始人特质
主持人: 您现在如何定义投资策略?您正在寻找什么类型的公司?
View/Hide Original English
what is how would you define the investment strategy just now what what type of companies are you looking for.
Georgi: 我认为我们正在寻找那些能够清晰阐述其伟大愿景以及事物能真正变得多大的公司。
View/Hide Original English
I mean I think we're looking for companies that actually are um comfortable in articulating that great vision and how large something can really become um that there are bold and brave uh but at the same time of course understanding that creating a business takes time and they should have that grit to go through not only one period of challenges but I think all great companies speaking about envidia Amazon and so forth and of course James knows much more of these companies than I do they all gone through difficult periods so I think what I like to see in a Founder is that he or she is is ready to go through periods like that.
Georgi: 它们大胆而勇敢,但同时当然也明白创建一家企业需要时间,它们应该有毅力去经历不止一个挑战时期。
View/Hide Original English
um that there are bold and brave uh but at the same time of course understanding that creating a business takes time and they should have that grit to go through not only one period of challenges but I think all great companies speaking about envidia Amazon and so forth and of course James knows much more of these companies than I do they all gone through difficult periods so I think what I like to see in a Founder is that he or she is is ready to go through periods like that.
Georgi: 我认为所有伟大的公司,比如 Nvidia(英伟达: 一家全球领先的图形处理器和人工智能计算公司)、Amazon(亚马逊: 一家全球性的电子商务和云计算公司)等等,当然 James 比我更了解这些公司,它们都经历过困难时期。
View/Hide Original English
I think all great companies speaking about envidia Amazon and so forth and of course James knows much more of these companies than I do they all gone through difficult periods.
Georgi: 所以,我希望在创始人身上看到的是,他或她已经准备好经历那样的时期。
View/Hide Original English
so I think what I like to see in a Founder is that he or she is is ready to go through periods like that.
主持人: 那么,您如何在创始人身上发现这些特质呢?面试会是什么样子?
View/Hide Original English
um now what um how do you find that in a Founder what are you what does an interview look like.
主持人: 假设我现在是创始人,您将如何判断我是否具备这种毅力或韧性?
View/Hide Original English
so now I'm a Founder how are you going to figure out whether I've got the you know this grit or resilience.
Georgi: 我认为第一个问题是真正地展开思考,因为通常当你制定经典的三年计划时,你倾向于仅仅推断你现在正在做的事情,这并不能告诉我任何关于未来可能发生和实现的事情。
View/Hide Original English
the first question I think is to really pan out because typically when you do your classical you know three-year plans you tend to extrapolate just what you're doing now which doesn't tell me anything about what can potentially you know happen and become.
Georgi: 所以,要展开思考,并提出关于十年或二十年结果的问题,这会迫使创始人以不同的方式思考。
View/Hide Original English
so to kind of pan out and to ask questions regarding the 10 or 20 years outcome that forces I think the founder to think differently.
Georgi: 我们遇到并支持的某些创始人,他们理解这能变得多么宏大,他们能够长期阐述这一点,同时当然也非常自律和注重执行,注重眼前的结果。
View/Hide Original English
and certain Founders that we have met and and of course backed they have the understanding of how large this can become they can articulate that for the long term while of course being very disciplined and execution oriented result oriented here now because you also build typically great companies by delivering every day every week.
Georgi: 因为你通常也是通过每天、每周的交付来建立伟大公司的。
View/Hide Original English
because you also build typically great companies by delivering every day every week.
Georgi: 所以,我认为我们有某种,我们不是通过等待结果来保持耐心,我们希望一直看到结果,但同时我们拥有耐心的资本,能够真正等待巨大的成果。
View/Hide Original English
so I think we have we have some kind of we are not patient by seeing for seeing results we want to see the results all the time but at the same time we have the patient Capital to actually wait for the large outcomes.
Georgi: 如果你能与创始人进行这样的讨论并提出这些问题,我认为这是一个很好的起点。
View/Hide Original English
and if you can have that discussion with a founder and ask those questions uh I think that's a good starting point.
主持人: 那是关于人的,但行业和您正在寻找的业务类型呢?
View/Hide Original English
so that's about the people but what about the industry and the type of business you're looking at.
Georgi: 是的,我认为谈到行业,我们一直在寻找能够改变整个行业的商业模式。
View/Hide Original English
yeah I think when it comes to the industry we are we have always looked for you know business models that can change an entire sector.
Georgi: 回溯到 80 年代,当时 Kinnevik 参与了电信或媒体行业挑战者的创建,或者在电子商务早期,再次支持新颖的商业模式,通过为消费者提供更好的选择来颠覆整个行业。
View/Hide Original English
going back to the 80s when shic was part of you know um creating um Challenger within telecommunications or the media sector for instance or in the early days of e-commerce again backing novel business models disrupting you know entire sectors by providing better choice for the consumer I think that's that's the starting point.
Georgi: 我认为这是我们的出发点。
View/Hide Original English
I think that's that's the starting point.
Georgi: 我们一直希望看到如何以一种能够颠覆整个行业的方式使用技术,通常是那些我们认为消费者受到不公平待遇,或者由于现有企业(如果我可以用这个词的话)而拥有低体验或低客户体验的行业。
View/Hide Original English
we always had that we would like to see how we can use technology in a way that would disrupt an entire sectors typically a sector that is you know where we see that consumers are badly treated or they have low experience or low customer experience because of of uh lace incumbent if I may use that word so I think that's that's something that attracts us uh to the Investments.
Georgi: 所以,我认为这就是吸引我们进行投资的原因。
View/Hide Original English
so I think that's that's something that attracts us uh to the Investments.
Georgi: 我们可以看看我们今天投资组合中的公司,比如 Recursion(Recursion Pharmaceuticals: 一家利用人工智能和机器学习进行药物发现的生物技术公司),我们作为投资者会支持药物发现平台,而今天许多投资者会关注管线中的实际候选药物。
View/Hide Original English
and we can look at companies in our portfolios today like recursion for instance where we as an investor would back the platform of drug Discovery whereas many investors today they would look at the actual candidates in a pipeline.
Georgi: 比如有多少潜在药物通过了一期、二期等,这些都是短期验证点。
View/Hide Original English
so how many potential drugs are passing phase one phase 2 etc those are the short-term proof points.
Georgi: 我们更关注平台的潜力,以及它如何从根本上改变一段时间内药物发现的成功率。
View/Hide Original English
we would more look at the potential of the platform again and how that fundamentally could change the success of drug Discovery over a period.
风险、竞争与独特的投资心态
主持人: 但您认为在过去,当风险投资公司较少竞争这些想法时,作为一名风险投资家,是否更容易?
View/Hide Original English
but do you think it was easier to be I mean in a way you're a bit of a venture capitalist uh you know investor do you think that was easier in the old days when there were less Venture Capital companies competing for these ideas.
Georgi: 是也不是,因为我认为在那个时候,如果你敢于下注,你天生就是独一无二的。
View/Hide Original English
yes and no because I think at that time you were by default unique if you were taking those bets.
Georgi: 但今天,我认为你不应该低估仅仅通过与众不同就能产生多大的影响。
View/Hide Original English
but today I think you shouldn't underestimate how much impact you can do by just being different.
Georgi: 再次强调,承担不同类型的风险,商业模式风险是很少有投资者真正会做的事情。
View/Hide Original English
and again what I said taking different types of risks business model risk is something that very few investors do actually.
Georgi: 他们倾向于寻找比较对象、同行等等。
View/Hide Original English
they tend to look for comparisons for peers Etc.
Georgi: 通过推动正确的讨论来下长期赌注也是一种不同的做法。
View/Hide Original English
taking the long-term bets by pushing the right discussions is also something that is different.
Georgi: 尽管我认为我们现在有一个团队一直在主导这些不同领域的战略,但当我们遇到创始人时,我们通常也会因为这些不同的心态而被选为合作伙伴。
View/Hide Original English
and although I think we have we have a team now that have been kind of spearheading a strategy of these different sectors when we meet Founders typically we are also selected as a partner because of those different different mindsets.
James Anderson 的投资哲学:超越预测,拥抱想象力
主持人: 接下来谈谈您,James,您是欧洲有史以来最成功的投资者之一。
View/Hide Original English
moving on to you James you are um one of the most successful investors Europe has ever seen and in particular in the technology sector you've been incredibly early.
主持人: 尤其是在科技领域,您进入得非常早。
View/Hide Original English
and in particular in the technology sector you've been incredibly early.
主持人: 请告诉我们您的投资哲学,因为您说看待公司的常规方式并不真正有效,我们需要关注 10 到 15 年的上涨和下跌情景。
View/Hide Original English
um tell us about your investment philosophy because you say thatth the normal ways of looking at companies is not really valid and we need to look at 10 15 year upside downside scenarios do what's how do you go about this.
主持人: 您是如何做到这一点的?
View/Hide Original English
how do you go about this.
James: 首先,感谢您的美言。
View/Hide Original English
well firstly thank you for the the kind words.
James: 我认为我们的行业在思考预测的方式上存在一些非常奇怪的地方。
View/Hide Original English
I I think there is something very strange about our industry in the way it thinks about prediction.
James: 我从未与任何预测专家交谈或阅读过他们的著作,他们会说你应该为一家特定公司在特定日期提供一个精确到小数点后三位的具体数字。
View/Hide Original English
um no experts on predictions who I've ever talked to or read would say that what you should be doing is providing a spot number often to three decimal points for a particular company at a particular date.
James: 我们生活在一个极其复杂的社会中,你无法预测会发生什么。
View/Hide Original English
we live in a deeply complex society where you cannot tell what is going to happen.
James: 但你可以,尽管对你的可能性应该有多精确存在所有担忧,但你可以有不同的情景。
View/Hide Original English
but you can with all concerns about how precise you ought to be in your likelihoods have different scenarios.
James: 我不知道您是否也有同感,但我有幸投资的每一家真正成功的公司,都远远超出了我最初的任何设想。
View/Hide Original English
and I don't know whether it's been the same for you but every single really successful company that I've been fortunate enough invest in has way exceeded anything that I could primarily envisage.
James: 这是一个关于尝试运用想象力而非其他任何事物的问题。
View/Hide Original English
you know it's become a matter of trying to use imagination rather than anything else.
James: 实际上,我对此越来越极端,我刚才在您问 Georgi 创始人如何回答时就在思考这个问题。
View/Hide Original English
and I actually sort of increasingly become if I may say this more extreme about this and I was thinking this when you were asking Georgia just then about what to answer Founders for those very small number of companies that dominate returns you know in America since 1926 just 72 companies provided half the returns over bonds of companies.
James: 在美国,自 1926 年以来,只有 72 家公司提供了公司债券一半的回报。
View/Hide Original English
in America since 1926 just 72 companies provided half the returns over bonds of companies.
主持人: 我认为这些人,Nikolai,会立刻震惊你。
View/Hide Original English
I think these people Nikolai instantly shock you.
主持人: 但如果你现在回顾,例如,你一直是 Tesla(特斯拉: 一家电动汽车和清洁能源公司)的早期、非常大且认真的支持者,对吗?
View/Hide Original English
but if you go back now for instance you you've been one of the early very large and serious backers of Tesla right.
主持人: 是的,那么您在第一次投资时是怎么想的?您是如何进行分析的?
View/Hide Original English
yeah so what did you think what what did you think at the time when you made your first investment how did you go about that analysis.
James: 首先要说的是,我认为你需要有一个长远的视角。
View/Hide Original English
well the first thing to say is I think you need to have a long-term view point of it.
James: 回到我之前说的,我有一抽屉精确到小数点后两位的目标价格,这些年来都是由好心的对冲基金发给我的。
View/Hide Original English
and you know to go back to what I was saying before I have a death draw full of to the second decimal point top price targets sent to me by kind hedge funds o over over the years.
James: 但你知道,你也需要不同的信息集,需要不同的衡量标准和思考方式。
View/Hide Original English
but you know you also need don't you different sets of information and need different metrics and thinking about all this.
James: 老实说,我得到的最有价值的帮助是与一群教授交谈,特别是 Jessica Trancik(Jessica Trancik: 麻省理工学院的能源系统教授),她同时在 MIT(Massachusetts Institute of Technology: 麻省理工学院)和 Santa Fe Institute(圣达菲研究所: 一个跨学科研究中心)任职。
View/Hide Original English
and in all honesty the most valuable help I had in it was talking to a set of professors particularly A lady called Jessica tranic who is both at MIT and Santa Fe Institute.
James: 她试图思考能源技术在 50 到 20 年的时间跨度内如何发展。
View/Hide Original English
who was trying to think about how Energy Technologies progress over 50 20 year time periods.
James: 这给了我们信心,让我们相信实际上你的最小改进率是每年 15%,结果证明比这还要高。
View/Hide Original English
and that gave us the confidence to say that actually your minimum Improvement rate is 15% per anom and it turned out to be rather higher than that.
James: 如果你给自己足够长的时间,15% 的改进率,对比丰田汽车每年 2% 到 3% 的改进率,这让你有信心它会带来改变。
View/Hide Original English
and if you afford yourself time periods sufficiently long 15% is against a 2 to 3% improvements that even Toyota could give you gave you confidence that it was going to change.
James: 所以我认为很多都与行业中来自学术来源的指数级变化(exponential change: 指数量级上的快速增长和变革)有关。
View/Hide Original English
so I think a lot of it was about the exponential change in the industry from academic sources.
James: 我认为你我都会同意,无论好坏,Elon(Elon Musk: 特斯拉和 SpaceX 的创始人)无疑属于那种在思考这个行业方面非凡的人物。
View/Hide Original English
I think you and I would agree that for good or ill Elon certainly falls into that category of being an extraordinary person in the way he was thinking about this the industry and possibly even more so at that juncture than in its present Incarnation.
James: 在那个关键时刻,他可能比现在更非凡。
View/Hide Original English
and possibly even more so at that juncture than in its present Incarnation.
James: 所以我真的认为,只要你的客户允许你保持耐心,那么成功的几率就相当高。
View/Hide Original English
uh so I actually think that as long as your clients allowed you patience uh it was something that the odds of success were pretty high on.
Atlas Copco 案例与长期所有权
主持人: 再举一个例子,我们刚才简短地谈到了 Atlas Copco(阿特拉斯·科普柯: 一家瑞典工业公司),我们也曾邀请他们来播客。
View/Hide Original English
give another example we talked briefly about Atlas Copco for instance who we had on on the podcast.
主持人: 您为什么投资 Atlas Copco?
View/Hide Original English
why why did you invest in at Atlas Copco.
James: 最诚实的回答是,如果我回顾 1986 年,去读我的笔记(我不再有这些笔记了),但我认为我会发现答案是:伙计们,我们谈论的是 1986 年,好吗?
View/Hide Original English
well the first honest response would be that in 1986 if I go back and read my notes which STIs I don't have any longer but I think I would have found the answer was guys we're talking 1986 okay it's a long time.
James: 那是很久以前的事了。
View/Hide Original English
it's a long time.
James: 思考我们的持有期以及我们如何计划延长它,这就是我们现在的位置,这就是我们要去的地方。
View/Hide Original English
think about our holding period and how we you know plan on extended this is where we are this is where we're going to yeah.
James: 是的,你知道,我认为在那个时候,答案可能相当肤浅,我必须诚实地说。
View/Hide Original English
I you know I think at that time the answer would probably have been reasonably superficial I need to be be honest about that.
James: 我花了很长时间才试图以一种更深刻的方式思考这个问题。
View/Hide Original English
it took me a long time to to tr try and think about this in a hopefully more profound way.
James: 我认为,在这种非常瑞典的元素中,拥有稳定的长期所有者是极其重要的。
View/Hide Original English
I I think in that very Swedish element of it having stable longterm owners was incredibly important.
James: 你知道,Wallenberg 家族(Wallenberg Universe: 瑞典一个拥有众多工业和金融公司的大型家族企业集团)的宇宙,我知道你和他们谈过,他们所实现的是如此不同。
View/Hide Original English
you know what the wenberg Universe I know you talk to um have enabled there is so far different um you know.
James: 我认为在大多数伟大的公司中,你需要创始人或长期家族。
View/Hide Original English
I think you need in most great companies Founders or long run families.
James: 我认为很少有公司没有这些而能真正成功的。
View/Hide Original English
I think there are very few companies that don't have those that become truly successful.
James: 但这同时也是一种绝对的承诺,这又回到了 Georgi 关于不断扩大市场以使其越来越大,而不是耗尽那些微小的优势领域。
View/Hide Original English
but it was also an absolute commitment and this goes back to George's point about constantly widening the market um so that it got big bigger and bigger rather than exhausting those tiny areas of dominance some companies have.
James: 但我最想了解的是,在这两个难题中,他们是如何不断地选择首席执行官的,这些首席执行官大多在那里工作了很长时间,他们自己也绝对体现了这些原则。
View/Hide Original English
but what I most like to understand more is within those two conundrums how they've constantly managed to select CEOs mostly who've been there as you know for a very long period of time who absolutely themselves embody these principles.
James: 我认为这非常不寻常。
View/Hide Original English
and I think that is very unusual.
James: 你知道,我有时发现那些真正成功的欧洲公司,从这个角度来看,甚至比美国公司更有趣,因为它实际上比创始人更广泛,不是吗?
View/Hide Original English
and you know I sometimes find the European companies that have really succeeded even more interesting than the American ones from this point of view because it is actually something wider isn't it than just the founder you know.
James: 我对 ASML(ASML Holding N.V.: 一家荷兰半导体设备制造商)也会说同样的话,它实际上从未有过创始人,但却有真正令人惊叹的人领导了它 40 年。
View/Hide Original English
I'd say exactly the same of asml which is effect we never really had a Founder but yet has had truly astonishing people leading him for 40 years.
何时卖出:中断复利与公司文化
主持人: 那么您何时卖出?或者您会卖出吗?
View/Hide Original English
so when do you sell or do you sell.
James: 嗯,我认为首先应该反复思考,正如 Charlie Munger(查理·芒格: 伯克希希尔哈撒韦公司的副董事长)所说,中断复利并不是一件非常明智的事情。
View/Hide Original English
well I think firstly one should think again and again of it you know as Charlie manga says interrupting compounding is not really a very senseful thing to do.
James: 你知道,我在这方面的“作为之罪”比“不作为之罪”更严重。
View/Hide Original English
and you know my sins of commission on this front have been worse than my U my my sins vom mission on it um and you know both on the buying and the selling um.
James: 在买卖方面都是如此。
View/Hide Original English
and you know both on the buying and the selling um.
James: 我不得不承认,我在 2016 年卖掉了 Apple(苹果公司: 一家全球性的科技公司),因为我看不出它将如何增长,也看不出在 Steve(Steve Jobs: 苹果公司的联合创始人)之后,它将如何保持这种精神。
View/Hide Original English
and I only have to admit that I sold Apple in n in 2016 um because I couldn't see how it was going to grow and I couldn't see post Steve how it was going to have the ethos.
James: 在某些方面,这确实是事实,但我不认为这在经济上是事实,即使在股票市场方面是绝对错误的。
View/Hide Original English
has now in some ways that's been true but I don't really think it's it's been true in economic terms even if it's been absolutely wrong in stop stock market terms.
James: 我认为只有当你认为你已经达到了增长耗尽的时期才应该卖出。
View/Hide Original English
I I think you should only sell if you think you have actually got to the period where you've exhausted that growth and that growth has to be estimated via your imagination as well as any sort of sense of predictions about it and you know I I wish on the whole that i' kept to those cultural factors more behind all that you know.
James: 这种增长必须通过你的想象力以及任何形式的预测来估算。
View/Hide Original English
and that growth has to be estimated via your imagination as well as any sort of sense of predictions about it and you know I I wish on the whole that i' kept to those cultural factors more behind all that you know.
James: 我希望我能更多地坚持那些文化因素。
View/Hide Original English
I wish on the whole that i' kept to those cultural factors more behind all that you know.
James: 我认为一旦一家公司改变了其性质,那么就很难获得我们所追求的寿命和极端成果。
View/Hide Original English
I think once a company changes its nature uh then it's very difficult to get the longevity and the extremes that we've got.
James: 所以在某种程度上,这表达了市场的规模,但很大程度上也取决于他们是否仍然拥有能够让他们探索这些非凡理念的文化。
View/Hide Original English
so in some way expressing about the scale of the market but a lot of it is also have they got the culture still that will enable them to explore these extraordinary uh thesis that they have you know.
James: 也许没有什么比 Jeff Bezos(杰夫·贝佐斯: 亚马逊的创始人)的说法更好的了,不是吗?
View/Hide Original English
perhaps can't put it better than if you excuse me one more word it's a Jeff Bezos thing isn't it.
James: 很多都是如此,但一旦一家公司进入“第二天”,它实际上就开始消亡了,你必须保持那种非凡的雄心壮志,那种对你所在行业思考方式的非凡反传统精神(iconoclasm: 指打破传统、挑战权威的精神)。
View/Hide Original English
I mean l Lots is but once a company moves on to day two then it's effectively beginning to die and you've got to stay with that extraordinary level of ambition extraordinary iconic clasm about how you go about thinking about your own Industries.
市场增长、投资方法与欧洲的挑战
主持人: 事实上,如此少的公司占据了市场如此多的增长,这对我们应该如何投资有什么影响?
View/Hide Original English
the fact that um so few companies uh account for so much of the growth in the market what are the implications for how we should invest.
James: 所以,在我最大的客户之一,也是一个非常有帮助的客户,是 Vanguard(先锋集团: 一家全球领先的投资管理公司)。
View/Hide Original English
so in days of you my largest client and one which immensely helpful was Vanguard.
James: 你可以想象与一个非常“拥有所有东西”的投资方式进行有趣的对话。
View/Hide Original English
um and you imagine having interesting conversations with a very um own everything type approach.
James: 我认为基本上有三种方法。
View/Hide Original English
and I think there are basically three approaches that you can have um and very quickly.
James: 你可以拥有所有东西,但我不确定你是否能拥有所有东西,因为你无法拥有 Georgi 谈论的那些非上市公司,但这样你就不会错过。
View/Hide Original English
you can own everything but I'm not sure you can own everything because you can't own the unquoted companies that George is talking about but then you you don't miss out.
James: 其次,你确实在做,我认为这是你的组织正在努力做得非常好的事情,并且可以发挥巨大作用,你尝试通过你拥有的方式让公司变得更好。
View/Hide Original English
secondly you do and I think this is something which your organization is trying to do extremely well and can have a huge role on you try and make the companies better by how you are owning them.
James: 这与 Georgi 所说的相符。
View/Hide Original English
it fits in with what George is saying.
James: 第三种,这是我自己的方法,但我绝不是想说它更好,你可以相信真正伟大的公司具有可识别的特征。
View/Hide Original English
the third one which is my own approach but I'm not remotely trying to say it's better is that you can believe that there are identifiable characteristics that truly great companies have.
James: 实际上,我认为在很多方面,我可能将其扩展得太多了,拥有了太多并非真正伟大的公司,但我认为它们具有可识别的特征。
View/Hide Original English
and actually I think in many ways I've probably expanded that too much and had too many not truly great companies but I think they have identifiable characteristics.
James: 我认为如果你准备长期使用它们,这项工作是可能的,在某些方面更简单,但这并不是大多数人认为他们正在玩的游戏。
View/Hide Original English
and I think you can actually if you're prepared to use them for long term I think the job is possible it's in some ways simpler but that's not the game that most people believe they're doing.
James: 我有时会用一个比喻,我的意大利员工很喜欢,我说,你知道,我来自苏格兰,永远不会赢得欧洲或世界足球锦标赛。
View/Hide Original English
I um I sometimes use this an analogy which goes down quite well with my Italian employes say that you know Scotland where I come from will never ever win a European or a World Soccer Championship.
James: 为什么?
View/Hide Original English
why.
James: 嗯,主要是因为我们不太擅长,所以我们上次击败了挪威。
View/Hide Original English
well mostly because we're not very good so we did beat Norway last time around um um.
James: 但你也需要有规模才能拥有一些特别的东西。
View/Hide Original English
but also you just need to have the scale to be able to have some something special about it.
James: 但你知道,如果我们玩不同的游戏,比如飞镖或斯诺克,主要是在阴暗的酒吧里,我们就可以比其他人做得更好。
View/Hide Original English
but you know if we play a different game like darts or snooker mostly in Cloudy pubs we can be better than other people at it.
James: 现在,投资领域的大多数人,我发现这令人难以置信地悲伤,但在我看来,投资领域的大多数人都在玩这个游戏,他们被激励着在短期内击败其他人。
View/Hide Original English
now most people in investment and I find this incredibly sad but most people in investment to my mind are engaged in the game and they are incentivized to this of trying to beat other people over short periods of time.
James: 我认为,如果你说你正在寻找极端情况,他们已经识别出极端情况,并且你给自己或希望你的客户给你至少 10 年的时间去做,那么这就会成为一个可行的游戏。
View/Hide Original English
I think if I say that you're looking for the extremes they have identified extremes and you give your yourself or hopefully your clients give you at least 10 years to do it it becomes a feasible game.
James: 否则听起来可能很傲慢,比如 Nikolai 说我能做到,其他人我只是不相信大多数市场参与者正在这样做。
View/Hide Original English
which as much chance as winning you know could sound very arrogant otherwise could do Nikolai you know saying I can do this other people I just don't believe that's what most Mar participants are doing.
James: 你知道,纽约的数据显示,60% 的人是根据他们的每日盈亏(P&L: Profit and Loss,利润和损失)来获得报酬的。
View/Hide Original English
you know the figure in New York is that 60% of people are are paid on the basis of their daily p&l.
James: 如果这是你正在经历的,你就不会对寻找长期指数级公司(exponential companies: 指那些增长速度呈指数级而非线性的公司)感兴趣。
View/Hide Original English
well that you're not you're not going to be interested in trying to find the Exp exponential companies for the long term if that's what you what you're going through.
主持人: 听到我们的期限比每日更长,您会高兴吗?
View/Hide Original English
would you be pleased to hear that we have a slightly longer term Horizon than daily um.
主持人: Georgi,接下来谈谈欧洲和美国之间的差异。
View/Hide Original English
now um Georgie just moving on to uh the difference between uh Europe and and the US.
主持人: 您认为欧洲和美国的初创企业场景有什么不同?
View/Hide Original English
just how what's the difference between the startup scene we are seeing in Europe and the US.
主持人: 为什么美国比欧洲成功得多?
View/Hide Original English
and in a way why is why is US succeeding so much better than Europe.
Georgi: 我想,如果我把事情归结为一点,我想到的词是“雄心”。
View/Hide Original English
I think if I kind of boil things down um the word I think of is ambition.
Georgi: 当然,现在我们投资组合中超过一半是美国企业,我看到了明显的差异,美国的雄心水平比欧洲高得多。
View/Hide Original English
and for sure now when we have you know more than half of our portfolio in US businesses I see a clear difference it's an ambition level that is much higher in the US compared to Europe.
Georgi: 我真的不知道为什么,但在欧洲,我们倾向于非常关注法规、边界、监管等等,而不是真正思考如何做那些“不可能”的事情。
View/Hide Original English
um I don't know really why but in Europe we tend to focus a lot you know around legislation boundaries um regulation Etc instead of actually thinking how to do the you know impossible kind of.
Georgi: 所以,这就是雄心水平的差异,而且我认为这远远超出了创始人,投资者在欧洲的思维方式也不同。
View/Hide Original English
so that's that's the ambition level and that goes well beyond Founders I think also investors think in a different way in Europe.
Georgi: 当然,我们也有很棒的欧洲例子,比如 Spotify(声田: 一家瑞典的音频流媒体和媒体服务提供商)等公司已经证明你可以真正成为全球赢家,但总的来说,我认为雄心水平是一个很大的差异。
View/Hide Original English
um and we have of course fantastic European examples I mean companies like Spotify and others that have proven that you can truly become Global winners but still I think the ambition level is is a big difference.
主持人: 斯德哥尔摩呢?
View/Hide Original English
what about Stockholm.
Georgi: 我认为斯德哥尔摩,瑞典,有幸拥有几个因素,这些因素帮助了初创企业场景的发展。
View/Hide Original English
I think Stockholm has Sweden has the pleasure of of having having several factors that has you know helped you know this startup scene to move everything from you know PCs being you know rolled out during um number of years in the in the 90s sorry um very early on.
Georgi: 从 90 年代个人电脑的普及,到很早我就亲自参与的“光纤到户”,让人们能够很早就能快速接入互联网,这些都是场景发展的一部分。
View/Hide Original English
from you know PCs being you know rolled out during um number of years in the in the 90s sorry um very early on I was uh working with that you know myself with with kind of um fiber to the home kind of allow people to have fast access to to internet early in the early days has been kind of part of the of of of of the scene growing.
Georgi: 我认为成功的初创企业通常会滋养其他初创企业。
View/Hide Original English
and I think also that successful startups uh typically you know feed other startups.
主持人: 您提到了家用电脑,请简要解释一下,因为在瑞典,当时的情况是人们都得到了电脑,对吗?
View/Hide Original English
because you mentioned this home PC just explain briefly because in Sweden there was a situation where well people just got PCS right.
Georgi: 是的,在家里,而且至少非常实惠。
View/Hide Original English
yes at home and very affordable at least yeah.
主持人: 是的,但我认为政府如何通过这样的方式加速技术进步,这非常有趣。
View/Hide Original English
I know but I mean it's quite interesting that how how a government can actually accelerate technological yes progress by something like that.
主持人: 它不是很贵。
View/Hide Original English
it wasn't very expensive.
Georgi: 不,它不贵。
View/Hide Original English
no it wasn't expensive.
Georgi: 我认为这又是一个长期的赌注,理解到如果我们能为更多人提供这些工具和基础设施,也就是宽带连接,那么好事就会发生。
View/Hide Original English
and I think it again was a long-term bet understanding that if we would provide more people with this these tools and the infrastructure which basically is the broadband connection right good things will happen.
Georgi: 可能会发生很多好事。
View/Hide Original English
probably lots of good things as well.
Georgi: 在此期间,我们有很多关于 Pirate Bay(海盗湾: 一个著名的文件共享网站)和其他事情的辩论,但我认为它确实创造了大量的创新。
View/Hide Original English
we had you know a lot of debates around Pirate Bay and other stuff during this period of time but I think it actually created a lot of innovation.
Georgi: 所以,我们欧洲绝对也能做到,但令人遗憾的是,今天在投资界和创始人社区都存在明显的差异,那就是雄心水平不同。
View/Hide Original English
so we can definitely do it in in Europe as well but it's sad to to say say that it's a clear difference today both within the investment community and and founder community that the ambition level is different.
Georgi: 当然,话虽如此,美国是一个巨大的市场,你不需要在扩张之前就走向国际。
View/Hide Original English
then of course having said that us is a huge market and and you don't have to go abroad before scaling.
Georgi: 我们在欧洲看到的是,一家公司成立一两年后就需要考虑扩张,进入新的市场、新的语言、新的文化等等,这在欧洲可能比美国公司更困难。
View/Hide Original English
what we see in Europe is that it just takes a year or two after a company has started and then it needs to think about expansion and going into New Market new language new cultures Etc within Europe can be more difficult than for you as company to.
私人与上市公司:创新与短期回报的矛盾
主持人: 您如何看待私人公司和上市公司之间的区别?
View/Hide Original English
how do you see the difference between uh private and public uh companies.
Georgi: 我是说,我们有时会说我们实际上可以“拯救”公司免于上市,这听起来有点悲伤,但尤其因为我们自己也是一家上市公司。
View/Hide Original English
I mean we say sometimes that we can actually save companies from going public it sounds a bit sad but but especially since we are a public company ourselves.
Georgi: 但我们有时看到,私人环境中的创始人有自由去专注于长期建立一家伟大的公司。
View/Hide Original English
but we see sometimes that Founders in the private environment has the freedom to actually focus on building a great company for the long term.
Georgi: 一旦他们上市,他们实际上就会按照 James 刚才描述的方式进行评估,也就是更短的时间周期,不同类型的工作流程。
View/Hide Original English
and once they're public they are actually evaluated along the lines that James just described right so much shorter time periods different type of of you know work streams.
Georgi: 你很少听到私人创始人或私人环境中的创始人过多考虑今天做什么来提高股价,但这在公共环境中实际上很常见。
View/Hide Original English
you seldom you know hear a private founder or founder in a private environment think too much about what to do today to improve the share price but that's quite common actually in the public environment.
Georgi: 我认为这是一个巨大的矛盾,当你希望公司专注于创新和研发时。
View/Hide Original English
and I think that is that's a big contradiction when you want the company to focus on Innovation and R&D.
Georgi: James 和我前几天刚讨论过 Nvidia,当他们在 2006 年遭遇那次巨大的挫折时,他们几乎被淘汰了,对吧?
View/Hide Original English
and me and James just discussed the other day about you know Nvidia H when they had this massive uh setback in I think it was 2006 and then nearly they were nearly wiped out right exactly.
Georgi: 股价下跌了 80% 以上。
View/Hide Original English
share price dropped more than 8%.
Georgi: 这里的悲哀之处,或者说有趣之处,至少是讽刺之处在于,那是因为他们投入了大量研发,构建了后来创造出万亿美元公司的平台。
View/Hide Original English
and and the sad thing here the funny thing I don't know the irony at least is that it was because they invested a lot in R&D Building the platform that then created a trillion dollar company right.
Georgi: 所以市场通常不会奖励公共环境中的企业投资未来。
View/Hide Original English
so the markets are not rewarding businesses typically in the public environment to invest for the future I think so.
未来五到十年的投资机会
主持人: 那么现在,James,回到您。
View/Hide Original English
now you look at so now you look at so James go back to you um now you look at where the R&D is being spent uh where the Innovation is.
主持人: 您现在关注研发投入和创新所在。
View/Hide Original English
now you look at where the R&D is being spent uh where the Innovation is.
主持人: 您认为未来 5 到 10 年,我们将在哪些行业赚到最多的钱?
View/Hide Original English
where do you think we're going to make the most money in the next 5 to 10 years what type of Industries.
James: 哦,我认为有三个突出的领域。
View/Hide Original English
oh I think that there are three outstanding areas.
James: 第一个我只是提一下,因为我认为我们不需要,那就是我认为在清洁技术(clean technology: 旨在减少环境影响或提高资源利用效率的技术)领域,有比人们想象的更好的商业模式,而且可以大规模实现。
View/Hide Original English
um one I'll just just mention because I don't think we need is I think that in clean technology there are much better business models than people believe and that that can be done at scale.
James: 第二个是 Georgi 刚才提到的,在数据与基因组学(genomics: 研究生物体基因组的科学领域)结合的地方。
View/Hide Original English
the second would be and George has touched on it at the moment where data meets genomics.
James: 我认为我们有机会将对人类生物学的理解从大约 15% 提升到 50%,我认为这将导致一场彻底的变革,有望带来更好的医疗保健和更低的成本。
View/Hide Original English
I think that we got a chance of moving our understanding of human biology up from I don't know 15% to 50% and I think that will lead to a complete transformation which hopefully will lead to Better Health Care at lower costs.
James: 当然,有很多因素阻碍着这一点。
View/Hide Original English
so of course there are many things cutting against that.
James: 第三个是,我确实相信人工智能拥有巨大的机会,但其方式与人们目前所做的方式非常不同。
View/Hide Original English
the third one would be that I do believe that AI has huge opportunities but in a very different way I think than people are going about at the moment.
James: 如果人工智能继续以每年约 60% 的速度复合增长其能力水平和理解水平,那么思考我们能在 10 年内解决什么问题就变得有趣了。
View/Hide Original English
if AI continues to compound its its power levels its understanding levels at something like 60% perom then trying to think about what problems we can solve in 10 years time becomes what's interesting from my point of view.
主持人: 那么这些问题是什么类型的呢?
View/Hide Original English
and what type of problems are they.
James: 嗯,我认为它首先又回到了医疗保健领域。
View/Hide Original English
well I think it feeds back into the healthcare one at the first place.
James: 我认为,你知道,这很有趣,我认为,你会认识到这还处于早期阶段,但你刚刚开始看到公司发展到这个阶段,我认为这是一个真正的希望的迹象,表明我们将突破。
View/Hide Original English
and I think you know it's it's interesting I think there are you know you you'll recognize that it's early stages here but you were just beginning to get companies evolve into that which I think is a sign of real hope that we're going to break out into it.
James: 我认为它将对医疗保健的改革至关重要。
View/Hide Original English
and I think it's going to be critical to reforming Healthcare.
James: 我认为多年来被广泛讨论的一点,再次回到我们提到的一家公司,我认为如果你能达到那种改进速度,那么自动驾驶(autonomous driving: 车辆无需人类干预即可感知环境并安全行驶的技术)和通用机器人技术(robotics: 涉及机器人设计、建造、操作和应用的技术)都将变得极其引人注目。
View/Hide Original English
I think one much talked about for many years and again back to a company that we mentioned I think that you've get that rate of improvement than both autonomous driving and Robotics for general purposes become extremely compelling.
James: 而且价格水平可以改变我们的世界。
View/Hide Original English
主持人: Georgi,您同意这一点吗?或者你们在资金投向方面是否协调一致?
View/Hide Original English
um and at prices levels where they can transform our world and George do you agree on this or are are you coordinated in where you want with the money kind of hopes.
Georgi: 所以,在某种程度上,大多数时候,并非总是如此,但大多数时候是的。
View/Hide Original English
so in away most of the time not always but most of the time.
Georgi: 我是一名受过培训的工程师,我真的感到非常着迷,因为我们现在看到了一些前所未有的事情。
View/Hide Original English
and I think I mean I'm an engineer by training and I'm truly fascinating because we're now seeing something that is that hasn't happened before.
Georgi: 我认为这是我们第一次能够将人类生物学和化学转化为技术。
View/Hide Original English
I think for the first time we can translate you know human biology chemistry into you know technology for the first time ever.
Georgi: 这并不意味着我们移动了边界,我们实际上完全消除了它们。
View/Hide Original English
and this is not this does not mean that we move boundaries we actually completely remove them.
Georgi: 所以我真的认为我们正在看到一些可以从根本上改变我们看待医疗保健和药物发现方式的事物,同时也在其他领域。
View/Hide Original English
so I honestly think that we are looking at something that could you know change fundamental again how we look at Healthcare and Drug Discovery but also in other areas.
Georgi: 我的意思是,我们支持了一家非常棒的公司,我们正在支持一家名为 Solen 的美国公司,它彻底改造了化学工程。
View/Hide Original English
I mean we we backed a fantastic company where we are backing a fantastic company called Solen in the US that has reinvented chemical engineering.
Georgi: 他们实际上可以生产材料,结果是碳净负(carbon net negative: 指从大气中去除的碳多于排放的碳),这在五到十年前是不可能做到的。
View/Hide Original English
they can actually produce materials um and the result is kind of carbon net negative and that wasn't able to do just you know five 10 years ago was impossible.
Georgi: 所以现在我认为我们拥有所有这些创新,然而市场似乎更关注日常交易和下一个季度的业绩。
View/Hide Original English
so now I think we have all this Innovation and yet the market seems to focus more on the daily trading and the next quarter's results.
Georgi: 我认为我们正在谈论 10 或 15 年后这项技术能做什么,这非常有趣。
View/Hide Original English
and I think it's quite quite interesting that we're talking about things in in 10 or 15 years time what this technology can do.
Georgi: 然而,我确实相信在人工智能领域也会有很多利润压缩(margin compressions: 指公司利润率因成本上升或价格竞争而下降)。
View/Hide Original English
I I do believe however that there will be also a lot of margin compressions around the AI field.
Georgi: 如果你看看我们所说的“薄封装”,它们可能与企业的工作流程(workflows: 指完成一项任务或一系列任务的步骤和过程)或类似的东西没有那么深的联系,护城河(moats: 商业竞争优势,难以被竞争对手复制)非常有限。
View/Hide Original English
if you look at the what we call thin wrappers that might not have you know so much deep connection to businesses you know workflows or or anything like that very limited modes there.
Georgi: 随着时间的推移,我们不会看到同样的收入发展。
View/Hide Original English
uh we won't see the same kind of development earning wise over time.
治理、家族股东与瑞典的非传统思维
主持人: 好的,我们换个话题。
View/Hide Original English
okay good um changing t a bit here um.
主持人: James,回到治理问题,作为董事长,您的主要优先事项是什么?
View/Hide Original English
James moving back to um governance what what what are your main priorities as the chair.
James: 我目前的首要任务是努力确保 Georgi 和他的团队有信心以一种逻辑上符合我们双方都在表达的理念的方式进行投资。
View/Hide Original English
my number one priority at the moment is trying to make sure that Georgie and his team have the confidence to invest in a way that logically fits into the philosophy both of us I think is expressing.
James: 你知道,我认为当你处于市场低迷期或公司低迷期,或两者兼而有之的时候,存在一种持续的危险,那就是你会放弃追求真正的成功。
View/Hide Original English
you know I think that there was is a continuous danger when you are in a bad phase of markets or a bad phase in the company or both combined that you give up trying to be truly successful.
主持人: 那么您是如何做到的呢?您会打电话给他,说:“加油,Georgi,振作起来!”吗?
View/Hide Original English
and I so how do you do that you call him and say come on Georgie Cher up.
James: 嗯,你知道,事实上,是的,有时会。
View/Hide Original English
well I you know as a matter of fact yes some.
James: 我认为,我真的认为这方面的人性因素很重要。
View/Hide Original English
I I I I I I think I actually think that the human aspect of that is important.
James: 你知道,有一个关于 Bezos 和 Buffett 的伟大故事,当然比 Georgi 和我高一个层次,那就是在 2005 年,Buffett 非常公开地搂着 Bezos 说:“Jeff,你做对了,不要听市场的话。”
View/Hide Original English
you know there's this great story about Bezos and Buffett you know at a far higher level than Georg you myself that you know in 2005 Buffett very publicly went and put his arms around Bezos and said Jeff you're getting it right don't listen to the market.
James: 这些事情真的很重要。
View/Hide Original English
these things really matter.
James: 我认为,你知道,正如 Nvidia 的 Jensen(Jensen Huang: 英伟达的联合创始人兼首席执行官)所说,如果他知道这会多艰难,他当初就不会做了。
View/Hide Original English
and I think you know know it's as Jensen and Nidia says you know if he if he' known how hard this was going to be he wouldn't have done it um.
James: 所以,你知道,你必须保持这种状态。
View/Hide Original English
so you know you've got to keep that.
James: 但我认为,你知道,正如 Georgi 所暗示的,董事会会议上发生的事情确实很重要。
View/Hide Original English
but I think that there is you know I think very often as George was implying a different way around I think what goes on at board meetings does matter from that point of view.
主持人: 拥有一个大家族股东有帮助吗?
View/Hide Original English
does it help to have a big family shareholder.
Georgi: 当然,我会说是的。
View/Hide Original English
for sure I would say so.
Georgi: 我的意思是,我认为在哪些方面?
View/Hide Original English
I mean I think in what ways.
Georgi: 我认为有血有肉的股东,再次思考世代而非季度,这很重要。
View/Hide Original English
I mean I think shareholders of flesh and blood again thinking about generation rather than quarters matters.
Georgi: 我认为尤其当你拥有像 Kinnevik 这样的创始家族,他们已经存在了很长时间,他们以前也见过变化。
View/Hide Original English
and I think especially when you have founding families as in chinik that have they have been around for a long period of time they have seen you know changes before.
Georgi: 如果说在文化和历史上有什么遗产的话,那就是我们做了很多新事情。
View/Hide Original English
if there's some you know Legacy in culture and history we have it is that we have done many new things.
Georgi: 我们 Kinnevik 内部的一位著名人物 Jan Stenbeck(Jan Stenbeck: Kinnevik 的前董事长和首席执行官),他说:“我不仅想看到拐角处,我还想住在拐角处。”
View/Hide Original English
and one of our uh you know persons within the famous person persons within chinik John sbec he said I don't just want to see around the corner I want to live around that corner.
主持人: 那么接替这样的人感觉如何呢?
View/Hide Original English
that and how is it and how is it to take over after somebody like that right.
主持人: 我的意思是,他是一个有远见的天才(visionary genius: 指具有非凡洞察力和创造力的人)。
View/Hide Original English
I mean he was he was he was he was kind of a a Visionary genius.
主持人: 我不是说您不是,但,而且您可能也是,但他肯定是的,对吧?
View/Hide Original English
I'm not saying that you are not but uh and of you know probably you are but but he for he for sure was right.
主持人: 那么接替他意味着什么?
View/Hide Original English
and what is it to take to take that.
Georgi: 首先,我不会说,我不会将自己与任何人比较。
View/Hide Original English
I first of all I wouldn't say that I I wouldn't compare myself to to anyone uh like that.
Georgi: 但我认为作为 Kinnevik 的首席执行官,最重要的事情是理解你实际上是在接过接力棒,并将其传承下去。
View/Hide Original English
but I think the most important thing to understand as a CEO of shinik is that you're actually taking the Baton m and you are carrying this forward because this is much more than one person or one team it's actually an institution.
Georgi: 因为这不仅仅是一个人或一个团队,它实际上是一个机构。
View/Hide Original English
because this is much more than one person or one team it's actually an institution.
Georgi: 这是一个独特的载体,因为我们结合了作为投资者,关注快速增长的科技公司,但也在某种程度上得到了家族办公室心态的支持,这种长期的做法是独一无二的。
View/Hide Original English
and it's it's a unique you know vehicle because we have the combination of being an investor you know looking at fast grown tech companies but also in one way backed by you know a family office kind of of mentality with this long-term approach that is unique.
主持人: 董事会成员持有公司股份重要吗?
View/Hide Original English
is it important that board members own shares in the company comp is where they on the board.
James: 是的,尽管我完全接受他们持有的数量取决于他们自己的个人情况。
View/Hide Original English
yes though I fully accept that the number they own is dependent on their own personal cyes is.
主持人: Kinnevik 是一家非常瑞典化的公司吗?
View/Hide Original English
yes is kin very Swedish company in that we had um Arin mayor on um the podcast and uh she talks about the importance of consensus decisions in Sweden.
主持人: 我们在播客中邀请了 Arin Meyer,她谈到了瑞典共识决策的重要性。
View/Hide Original English
she talks about the importance of consensus decisions in Sweden.
主持人: 然而,当你达成共识时,通常并不是一个非常好的投资,因为它太具共识性了,对吧?
View/Hide Original English
now at the same time when you reach consensus is normally not a very good investment because it's so consensual right.
主持人: 那么您如何平衡这一点?在瑞典这样一个每个人都必须达成一致的国家,您如何做到逆向投资(contrarian: 指与市场主流观点或趋势相反的投资策略)?
View/Hide Original English
so how do you how do you balance this how do you how can you be contrarian in a in a in a country like Sweden where everybody has to agree for from that perspective.
Georgi: 从这个角度来看,我认为我们通常是非瑞典化的。
View/Hide Original English
from that perspective I think we're typically non-s Swedish.
Georgi: 我认为这就是为什么 Kinnevik 在过去一直是某些瑞典创始人的榜样,他们将 Stenbeck 家族和 Kinnevik 视为逆向投资和做出大胆决策的典范。
View/Hide Original English
and I think that's why shinik in the past has been very much of a role model I think to certain Sweden Founders that have been looked at at you know the stenbeck family and shinc as an example of being a contrarian and taking bold decisions.
Georgi: 我不总是相信民主决策。
View/Hide Original English
I don't believe in always in Democratic decisions.
Georgi: 我确实认为你应该倾听并仔细考虑每一种不同的观点,所以开放的讨论和良好的决策过程是一回事,试图在所有事情上达成一致则是完全不同的事情。
View/Hide Original English
I do believe that you should listen and carefully consider every different perspectives so having a a open discussion a good decision-making process is one thing trying to agree on everything is a total different thing.
Georgi: 我不认为我们是那样的,所以从这个角度来看,我们非常非瑞典化。
View/Hide Original English
and I don't think we're there so from that perspective we're very nons Swedish.
如何处理失败与风险管理
主持人: 您如何处理失败?
View/Hide Original English
how do you deal with failures.
Georgi: 我的意思是,我认为首先你需要承认失败。
View/Hide Original English
I mean I think first of all you need to acknowledge failures um.
Georgi: 但我认为,但你们 Kinnevik 真的承认失败吗?
View/Hide Original English
but I think I think it's but but do you guys really Ann acknowledge failures at kin.
Georgi: 你们谈论了很多成功,但很少谈论那些不太顺利的事情。
View/Hide Original English
you talk a lot about your successes you don't talk so much about the stuff that doesn't go so well H.
Georgi: 谈论失败很痛苦,但实际上我们确实会谈论那些出错的事情。
View/Hide Original English
it hurts to talk about failures but actually we do we talk about things that have gone wrong.
Georgi: 我们在一些已经破产的公司上进行了严重的押注,并且损失了很多钱,我们也会谈论这些。
View/Hide Original English
we have you know taking some serious bets in in companies that have gone bust and we've lost a lot of money that we talk about.
Georgi: 但我认为重要的是,它不会造成一种“害怕犯错”的文化,因为我们从事的是风险承担的业务。
View/Hide Original English
but I think what's important is it that it doesn't create this culture of you know fear of doing mistakes because we we are in the business of risk-taking.
Georgi: 我相信所有伟大的公司,包括 Kinnevik,在成功的旅程中都会犯很多错误。
View/Hide Original English
and I'm sure that every great company out there including shinik will do a lot of mistakes during that successful Journey right.
Georgi: 所以,如果你以消极的方式沉迷于失败,我认为那会形成一种非常消极的文化,不利于展望未来的潜力。
View/Hide Original English
so if you if you're obsessed about failures in a negative way I think that can form a culture that is very negative when it comes to seeing the potential going forward.
Georgi: 在某种程度上,我认为作为投资者,有时你应该庆祝错误,并将其视为你变得更好的进化过程中非常自然的一部分。
View/Hide Original English
somehow I think you should as an investor sometimes celebrate you know mistakes and and see that as something you know very natural in your evolution of becoming better.
Georgi: 有时我也会被那些说“提取经验教训,这样我们就不会犯同样的错误两次”的人惹恼。
View/Hide Original English
and sometimes I also get annoyed by people saying that it's very good to extract learnings so we don't do the same mistake twice.
Georgi: 我同意,但有太多新的错误可以犯,所以我不太确定你是否能仅仅因为吸取了过去的教训就能避免犯错。
View/Hide Original English
I do agree but there are so many new mistakes to be done so I don't I'm not sure you can protect yourselves from doing mistakes just because you learn your past mistakes.
Georgi: 你只需要接受它们,并确保当你达到那个极端结果时,它希望能弥补你长期以来所犯的所有错误。
View/Hide Original English
you just have to live with them and make sure that when you hit that extreme outcome it hopefully will actually compensate for all the mistakes you've done for a long period of time.
Georgi: 我不知道 James,我现在会不会被解雇。
View/Hide Original English
I don't know James if I get fired now or or so.
主持人: 我们实际上要探讨一下被解雇的可能性,当然不是您。
View/Hide Original English
we we're actually going to I just love to explore that a bit uh you know kind of the potential of being fired because um not not you of course but um.
主持人: James,您刚才提到,如果您的股东允许,如果您的投资者允许您长期投资,对吧?
View/Hide Original English
um James you mentioned um a bit earlier that uh you know if your shareholders permit you you know if your investors permit you to be longterm right.
主持人: 那么您如何看待回撤(drawdown: 投资组合从峰值到谷底的下降幅度)以及在您的工作受到威胁之前您可以损失多少钱?
View/Hide Original English
yeah now um how do you think about a draw down and how much money you can lose before your job is at stake right.
主持人: 所以,这个基金有一个跟踪误差预算(tracking error budget: 衡量投资组合回报与基准回报差异的风险管理工具),这意味着我们做得有多差是有限制的,因为这是一个非常重要的基金。
View/Hide Original English
so one of the reasons in this fund that they have this um tracking error budget is that so there are limit for how bad we can do because this is a very important fund.
主持人: 那么您有什么样的风险管理措施或回撤限制吗?
View/Hide Original English
now have you got have you got any type of risk management put on you or Draw down limits or you know.
Georgi: 当然,我们有很多风险参数需要关注。
View/Hide Original English
we have of course a lot of risk you know um parameters that we look at um.
Georgi: 但我认为我们通常的做法是,我们支持一家公司是因为我们有一个理论,我们看到了宏大的前景,但我们不会一次性投入所有资本。
View/Hide Original English
but I think typically what we do we back a company because we have a thesis and we see that big picture but we don't deploy all the capital at once.
Georgi: 我们通常的做法是,随着公司发展,我们会随着时间推移部署资本。
View/Hide Original English
what we typically do is that we deploy the capital over time when we see the company develop.
Georgi: 当然,这可以达到一个相当大的数字,1 亿美元或更多,但在某个时候,我们不会后悔当初支持它。
View/Hide Original English
and of course that can reach a certain number that it's a lot of money100 million or more but at a certain point we don't regret that we back that you know in the beginning.
Georgi: 我们承认我们犯了错误,公司实际上将不再是我们投资组合的一部分,要么因为它被减记,要么它破产了,这种情况确实会发生。
View/Hide Original English
and we admit that we made a mistake and the company will actually not be part of our portfolio either because it's written down or it goes bust that happens.
Georgi: 但当然,我们能投入那家公司的资本是有限制的。
View/Hide Original English
but but it's a limit of course how much Capital we can put in that company.
主持人: James,您怎么看?
View/Hide Original English
what do you think James.
主持人: 他做得多差您才会给他打不同类型的电话?
View/Hide Original English
how how badly can he do before you give him a different type of telephone call.
James: 是的,我认为这应该关乎对决策质量的评估,而不是结果。
View/Hide Original English
yeah I I I I think it should be about making an assessment of the caliber of the decision making more than the outcome um.
James: 我认为我们只是忘记了成功是多么脆弱。
View/Hide Original English
and I think we forget just how fragile success is.
James: 回到另一家公司,Home Depot(家得宝: 一家美国家居建材零售商),我通过这个,我最早的学期,当我还在美国部门担任助理时,我一直持有它。
View/Hide Original English
so go back to another company that in mark rust to Atlas Copco which I held on to through this I earliest semesters when I was working as assistant in American depart was in Home Depot.
James: Home Depot 在 1985 年底,可能是 1986 年初,但大约在那个时期,再次在三周内濒临破产。
View/Hide Original English
now Home Depot in I think late 1985 might have been early 1986 but around that time period again was within 3 weeks of going bankrupt.
James: 我相信当时有一份哈佛大学的案例研究。
View/Hide Original English
and I believe there's a Harvard case study around this at the time.
James: 从那时起,如果你一直持有它,它就是你所能做的 25 项最佳投资之一。
View/Hide Original English
now it is since then one of the 25 best investments you could have made if youve carried on loaning it.
James: 如果他们在那时倒闭了,他们会成为一个先例吗?
View/Hide Original English
um if they' gone under at that point would they have deed a prium.
James: 我不太确定他们会,因为整个理论都摆在那里,而且上涨空间巨大。
View/Hide Original English
I'm not really sure they would because the entire thesis was was out there and GRE and the upside was huge.
James: 所以,你知道,我认为很多都与思考的质量和工作的质量有关。
View/Hide Original English
so you know I think a lot is about think thinking about the caliber of thought and the caliber of work that is done.
James: 在这方面,是的,我确实认为金融行业有很多人不配拥有高薪工作并继续留任。
View/Hide Original English
and on that score yeah I do think that there are plenty of people in the financial industry who don't deserve to have very highly remunerated jobs and to keep them.
Georgi: 但我认为,我的意思是,在这样的时期,当我们经历了一次大的市场重置时,我们的公司更难筹集到增长所需的资本,这是肯定的。
View/Hide Original English
but I think also I mean in times like this when we had a big Market reset it's more difficult to raise capital for growth in our companies for sure um.
Georgi: 我认为我们也需要谦虚,对吧?
View/Hide Original English
I think we need also to be humble right.
Georgi: 因为很容易说现在我们区分赢家和输家,我们区分麦子和糠秕等等。
View/Hide Original English
because it's easy to say that now we separate the winners from the losers we separate the weat from the shaft and so forth.
Georgi: 但确实有很多公司会因为无法筹集资本而破产,而它们本可以变得非凡。
View/Hide Original English
but there are definitely a lot of companies out there that will go bust because they can't raise Capital that could have become something extraordinary.
Georgi: 而我们是决定它们是否应该拥有这个机会的人。
View/Hide Original English
and we are the one deciding whether they should have that chance.
Georgi: 可能不是因为这是一家糟糕的公司,而是我们没有给它们这个机会。
View/Hide Original English
might not be so that it's a bad company but we did not give them that chance.
Georgi: 对我们来说这意味着什么?
View/Hide Original English
what does it mean for us.
Georgi: 当然,我们不能为投资组合中的每家公司提供资金,我们不能为所有公司提供资金。
View/Hide Original English
of course we can't we can't fund every company we have in the portfolio we can't fund every company out there.
Georgi: 但我们也应该提醒自己,在一家正在挣扎的公司中看到未来的潜力是很困难的。
View/Hide Original English
but we should also remind ourselves that it's difficult to actually you know see that future potential Al in a company that's struggling.
Georgi: 否则投资就会很容易,你只会把更多的资本分配给那些现在每天都在表现良好的公司。
View/Hide Original English
otherwise investing would be easy you would only then allocate more Capital to the ones that are performing right now every day yeah.
Georgi: 是的,但情况并非如此,投资并不容易。
View/Hide Original English
but that's not the case investing is not easy.
对 Norges Bank Investment Management 和年轻人的建议
主持人: James,您对我们公司有什么建议?
View/Hide Original English
James what advice would you have to us as a firm.
James: 嗯,首先,我重申,我真心钦佩你们正在做的事情,我绝不想傲慢地说我能做得更好。
View/Hide Original English
well firstly I I repeat that I genuinely have admiration for you're going on and I don't want to be remotely arrogant enough to say that I can better.
James: 但我认为你们有巨大的机会,可以改善金融行业的运作方式,甚至超越金融行业。
View/Hide Original English
but I I think that you have such enormous opportunities to do good for the way the financial sector Works indeed so that it goes beyond niol made the financial sector.
James: 因为,你知道,我一直相信,如果我们把自己的工作视为帮助建立伟大公司,我们会做得更好。
View/Hide Original English
because you know I've always had this belief that really would be better off if we thought about the job that we're doing as trying to help build great companies.
James: 我认为你们有无与伦比的机会去帮助建立伟大的公司。
View/Hide Original English
I think you have an unequal chance to try and help build great companies.
James: 第二部分是,我认为在你们组织内部建立一种真正独特、个性化的投资文化,对你们来说将是一个引人入胜的项目。
View/Hide Original English
and the second part of that is that I think that building a really distinctive individualized investment culture with inside your organization would be a fascinating project for you.
主持人: 那么这种文化应该是什么样的呢?
View/Hide Original English
because and what should it look like sorry and what should that culture look like.
James: 我认为这种文化,我希望它与我们一直在谈论的许多公司保持一致,应该是你们所有人从第一性原理出发,审视你们的目标是什么,你们能在最广泛的意义上贡献什么。
View/Hide Original English
I think the culture and I hope this is consistent with the many of the companies that we've been talking about should be all of you taking a look at what you think from the first principles your objectives are what you can contribute in the broadest possible sense.
James: 并且完全不在乎这是否与传统相悖。
View/Hide Original English
and not to care at all if that and again I would have thought you were in a strong position in most ways from that point of view and not to care whether that cuts against the convention.
James: 你知道,我早些时候和你的同事谈过,我个人认为没有证据表明在大多数市场中普遍存在的投资金融回报有助于你获得更好的投资。
View/Hide Original English
you know talking to your colleagues earlier about you know I personally believe that there is no evidence that the financial rewards prevalent in most markets of for for investment do anything to help get you to better investment.
James: 所以重新思考所有这些,重新思考你评判公司所用的衡量标准。
View/Hide Original English
so rethink it all rethink the metrics that you judge by companies by.
James: 我最近受到了 Katalin Karikó(Katalin Karikó: 匈牙利裔美国生物化学家,mRNA 技术的主要发现者之一)的极大影响,她是许多 mRNA 技术(mRNA technology: 信使核糖核酸技术,用于疫苗和药物开发)的发现者,你们都知道。
View/Hide Original English
I was been incredibly influenced recently by kathen gico the um discover of many mRNA technologist as most of you all know autobiography which was relating the terrible terrible things she had to go through in Academia um because of what she put were the rituals of how you had to do things each year and gradually the amount of money she was allowed the research staff the size of the lab even the appointment of her was in question just because she was being measured by how much money she brought in each year then at the end of 20 years you suddenly win the Nobel Prize you don't know when these things are going to happen and they need to be given this their space.
James: 她的自传讲述了她在学术界不得不经历的种种可怕事情,因为她所说的每年必须做事的“仪式”,她被允许的资金、研究人员、实验室规模,甚至她的任命都受到了质疑,仅仅因为她每年带来的资金量被衡量。
View/Hide Original English
her autobiography which was relating the terrible terrible things she had to go through in Academia um because of what she put were the rituals of how you had to do things each year and gradually the amount of money she was allowed the research staff the size of the lab even the appointment of her was in question just because she was being measured by how much money she brought in each year.
James: 然后在 20 年后,你突然获得了诺贝尔奖。
View/Hide Original English
then at the end of 20 years you suddenly win the Nobel Prize.
James: 你不知道这些事情何时会发生,它们需要被给予空间。
View/Hide Original English
you don't know when these things are going to happen and they need to be given this their space.
主持人: 现在,我们有很多年轻人正在收听这个播客,你知道,房间里挤满了他们。
View/Hide Original English
now we have a lot of uh young people listening uh to this podcast you know the room is full of them um.
主持人: 您会给他们什么建议?Georgi,我们从您开始。
View/Hide Original English
what kind of advice would you give them Georgie we start with you.
Georgi: 我的意思是,如果我回顾几年前,这真的是关于计划的问题。
View/Hide Original English
I mean I think if I go back um some years it's it's really the question about planning.
Georgi: 我认为计划事情非常困难,因为它们很少会按照你计划的那样发展。
View/Hide Original English
I think it's very difficult to plan things because seldom it turns out as you plan them.
Georgi: 当谈到你的个人发展、你的职业生涯时,我认为这是不可能的,对吧?
View/Hide Original English
it's when it comes to your develop your personal development your career I think it's impossible right.
Georgi: 所以你需要做你热爱的事情,你感兴趣的事情,也回到我们之前讨论的错误,对吧?
View/Hide Original English
so you need to do what you're passionate about and what you're interested about and also coming back to what we discussed earlier the mistakes right.
Georgi: 允许自己犯一些错误。
View/Hide Original English
allow yourself to do some mistakes.
Georgi: 仅仅做你感到舒服的事情是不可能学习的。
View/Hide Original English
it's not possible to learn by just doing the things that you're comfortable with.
Georgi: 我认为如果你能更早地犯更多错误,你会变得更聪明。
View/Hide Original English
and I think if you're able to do more mistakes earlier on you will become wiser.
Georgi: 我认为这是我希望有人能在我职业生涯早期给我信心去做的事情。
View/Hide Original English
and I think that is something I wish someone would have given me confidence to do early on in my career.
主持人: 您呢,James?
View/Hide Original English
what about you JS.
James: 我认为你必须有勇气以不同的方式思考。
View/Hide Original English
I think you have to have the courage to think differently.
James: 同时,我非常悲伤地看到很多人继续留在金融服务或投资行业,因为他们薪水高,而且被认为是一份相对有声望的工作,但他们根本不喜欢。
View/Hide Original English
and at the same time I'm incredibly saddened by the number of people I've seen who continued in a financial services or investment industry because they were a wellp paid and B it was thought to be a relatively prestigious job and they didn't enjoy it at all.
主持人: 所以您的建议是,如果您没有真正愿意以不同方式思考,或者您发现仅仅是投资问题本身就足够引人入胜,从而为您提供内在动力,那么就离开金融行业?
View/Hide Original English
so your advice is to leave the financial sector if you don't have real willingness to think differently or that you find just you know my own case just a sheer problem of investment to be sufficiently intriguing that you know provides you with the inherent motivation from from that point of view.
James: 从这个角度来看,我认为这是一个非常棒的建议,也是一个很好的结束语。
View/Hide Original English
I think it's a great great piece of advice and a good place to end.
主持人: 嘿,如果你不喜欢它,如果你不喜欢与众不同,那就做别的事情。
View/Hide Original English
hey if you don't like it if you don't like to be different uh do something else.
主持人: 非常感谢两位,感谢你们来到奥斯陆。
View/Hide Original English
big thanks to both of you and great and thanks for coming to Oso.
Georgi: 非常感谢。
View/Hide Original English
thank you very much.