All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Tech Bros. We are live. It is Monday, November 3rd and in about two days on Wednesday, we are going to be getting Robin Hood earnings for Q3 2025. So, this episode is going to be pretty much dedicated to those earnings. I think we'll if we have some time, we'll talk about a couple other topics, but uh Robin Hood is going to be a very important topic for today. Roy Tanner, how you doing?

>> Uh well, it's always an exciting time. >> Yeah, I'm doing well as uh as well. Um yeah, really excited for Wednesday and Thursday. These earnings are just packed, man. This is going to be the busiest week, probably busier than next or or busier than last week. And uh Robin Hood, of course, is on Wednesday, so that's going to be an exciting one.

And I don't know is that a chime for me. I was gonna stream one or the other, but I thought, hey, you know what? Might as well do Robin Hood. I'm I'm on the earnings call. So, no, I'm kidding. But dude, I hate the fact that Chime has to be on the exact same day. I hate the fact that I want to stream both and I can't do it the same hour. Even if it was five and then the other one was six to seven.

Are you are you actually complaining that you don't have the privilege of streaming Chime on the day of Robin Hood? Is that what I'm hearing right now?

>> Bro, I'm telling you, I think there's going to be a pop.

No, no. Even if there is, are you more excited for time earnings than Robin freaking hood? Like, I don't I don't even get that. >> I think there's going to be a pop.

>> Okay, Vlad, if you're listening, this man doesn't deserve an invite anymore. He's not an American anyway. He doesn't have the the Robin Hood app.

>> Just kidding. >> Exactly. >> I'm excited for Hood. I'm excited for Hood. But um you know, I think the fact that they show all the monthly numbers takes away a little bit of the uh anxiousness of seeing earnings

>> there though. This one, and we'll get into it. It there's a lot less that we know this time just because the nature of the new legs of their business, including the predictions market. So, um, yeah, and the expectations are really high, too.

So, by the way, before we get into the Robin Hood stuff, can we just pause a moment and reflect on how amazing a Palunteer is as a business?

>> Yeah, I mean, I I'll let I'll let Tanner give his thoughts because he was listening to the call as well, but Tanner, what' you think of the quarter?

>> Um, I mean, just nothing shy of like perfection. They they are an insane business. Like I don't know if I've ever seen execution like this from any company. 63 plus percent or something like this for revenue. Net dollar retention is not only growing. I think it got to 134%. But the rate at which it's growing has increased every quarter for like the last six quarters. Like it's crazy. That is not uh normal.

So, I obviously um still don't think the fair value of of Palunteer is in the $200 ranges, but every time I see their their quarterly numbers, it increases. And and I'm like, wow, you know what? I I would buy this company at a much higher price than I would have last quarter. And that that seemed to have happened the last, you know, six quarters in a row. So, so maybe they are worth 200, but you have to kind of discount that out into the future. Yeah, they're they're super expensive. But if you were if you were forced to go short on two companies, would you pick Palunteer and Nvidia to to be short on?

>> Uh, no. I think that's insanity. Um, and whoever did that was probably brave enough to short the entire housing market. Um, so

>> he uh, >> yeah, I mean, he likes to take these bets. They're talking about Bur because he disclosed a well, it's a put position. Uh, it could have been closed by now, but it was in Q3. But then even more interesting than the disclosure of the put position, look at what Bur's tweeting an hour ago. All these pictures of uh, basically capex growth rates matching tech bubble of 99, Nvidia OpenAI are essentially giving money to each other. I mean, the the sort of conventional bear arguments that a lot of us have been hearing over the past couple weeks, Bur is on board with all those arguments based on his latest post. And uh well, I guess we can a little have a little bit of this conversation right now before we get into hood earnings. Roy, in general, what what are your thoughts on the most infamous short coming out and basically saying AI is a bubble?

>> Yeah. So, there's there's two reasons for that argument. One is a little bit of that cir cyclical revenue which there's a little bit of a merit to that where if if there if like Sam Alman is really scam alman and is ripping everybody off and it's not real what he's building which I doubt um because there's a lot of scrutiny on that company uh but if it is then that's a domino effect now it's not going to cause a massive crash but it will have a pretty big impact.

um but uh a lot of people are trying to compare this to 1999 too partly because of the price action And but we have a really different setup here. Like in essence, if you look at the companies that are spending the capex, are these companies that are just burning money and have no real revenue and or just a little bit of one and don't have actually any real earnings? No. These are some of the actually the most wildly profitable companies in entire world history. and they're so ridiculously profitable, they can infinitely burn money on capex and be perfectly fine. So, this is not the.com bubble by any measure.

Um, also the way that tech has ramped, uh, it's going to take a lot less time for AI to really deliver ROI. We've seen it with Palanteer certainly and with Nvidia products and those that are using those products um, than was the case with the internet when it was relatively novel. So, I I think he's just wrong by every measure. What he's right about is there are some expensive names out there. Palanteer is one of them. I I think Nvidia, like calling it expensive, is overlooking probably another hundred companies that you could say that over Nvidia. I think it's I think that's even dumber than Palanteer, honestly.

And I I don't know a lot more Palanteer than Nvidia. Um, and if you were going to be negative and say that there's a bubble in some of these areas, private equity, there's probably some something to be said on that, but also like why not pick Quantum? you why not pick, you know, some pre-revenue companies that are very similar to what we had in the dotcom bubble uh and that are mostly just names. I mean, they're more than names. They're doing they're trying to do some real things. I don't know whether or not to believe in quantum and I wouldn't short it personally, but I don't know. It's it seems weird to pick two of the most impressive companies and yes, Palanteer is richly valued, but I I am guessing he's picking Palunteer only because it's richly valued, which is the dumbest reason to go short on something.

So, I think this is reckless. You know, maybe he's already out. If not, he's in for a lot of pain or he has been so far. You know, he could also time it for maybe it's just a macro event where he's like, "Hey, we're going to have a pullback. These names will pull up more." But we saw at least how Palunteer performed in April, it did a lot. It didn't do great, but it did a lot better than almost any even Bull was expecting it would perform in April. So, I I think he's shortsighted. I think he's wrong, and I think he's off sides.

>> Yeah. I mean, the whole thing seemed a little weird. He published early. Uh he tweeted about He never tweets. He deletes all his tweets. So, he tweeted about it, disclosed it 11 days early. Um he calls everything a bubble. He's been calling multiple bubbles. Uh so if people think that, you know, every decision that Michael Bur has made is a success is actually quite the opposite. I actually think like for the most part his success rate is actually quite low on these short calls.

Um and so the only thing that he's been going long on is like Chinese stocks and water. And to, you know, just to think about it, the only thing that he hasn't called a bubble is water is pretty freaking funny to me. So, um, I don't know. I don't really care what Michael Bur does anymore. Um, like you said, I I don't even mind the palunteer part. Maybe he was trying to do this for earnings. Maybe he expected the worst. But, uh, you know, Nvidia, that's a that's an interesting one. Doesn't even look that expensive based on their growth.

>> Yeah. And and one more thing uh init I'd love to hear your thoughts too, but um like the Palunteer one if it's on valuation, you know, I get that. Um I I don't think that that's a great reason to to go short, but like we've seen like those earnings were absolutely ridiculous. Like last quarter I said they were the best earnings of any company I've ever followed closely in my entire life and then they just outdid themselves. Um and the stock fell after hours. Why? Well, we'll have to see, you know, how it shakes out over the next few weeks, but it's pro it's likely priced beyond perfection at this point because, uh, if you fall in those earnings, it's not too shocking. You know, we've we've seen it run up into earnings, too. That's a factor. But, um, so, you know, maybe he's right there, but that doesn't mean I don't know. The Nvidia one's like even crazier. So, Emit, what do you think?

No, >> I agree. I agree with everything you guys said. You we've talked at Nauseium about why I think AI is not a bubble. Pounder had one of the craziest quarters in history. I mean like I don't even think there's an adjective to describe that those numbers that we saw especially on the margin profile along with the topline revenue growth. It's just the stock had a lot priced into it. So I think people are freaking out because it's down below 200. I'm like dude it was at 170 last week and 170 is a pretty aggressive valuation too. So it's like I just think people are very short-term in in nature when it comes to these moves.

And you know same thing we saw with SoFi. People freaked out when it didn't move as much even though it was a great quarter. But if you've been investing in these names, SoFi, Poundinger, Hood, Rocket Lab for years, it doesn't matter. You care about the execution. I mean, Robin Hood might deliver an amazing quarter and that stock might go back down to 130 because there's a lot priced into to Robin Hood right now and Bitcoin and crypto has not been cooperating. So, you know, you have some natural headwinds that we'll talk about, but it doesn't mean those companies are are bad or not executing at a phenomenal level.

All right, so let's get into it. Robin Hood. Um, we'll do some earnings predictions. Tanner usually keeps track of all the numbers in an Excel sheet. So, Tanner, I think you can bring that up and we'll kind of go through all the numbers. Um,

>> sure. >> Streets expecting 1.2 billion of uh topline revenue, which would be uh I think well over 50% year-over-year growth for or just about 50% year-over-year growth. And they're expecting about 54 cents of EPS. So, we'll get into these numbers and then we'll kind of go through what we're thinking.

>> I also have it at 1.2 billion. Um, I'm seeing 89 uh% year-over-year growth.

>> You're probably You're probably right. I was probably looking at the wrong Q. Oh, 637. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. That's

>> it's going to be much harder Q4. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Q4 is >> that's whenever it's going to get pretty freaking hard.

But uh yeah, still 20 nearly 22% quarterover-arter growth, $1.2 billion. Um and then so transactionbased revenue I have growing at 63%. Because I also think that this is uh this includes prediction markets. Uh net interest revenue I'm always higher than where it looks like I need to be. Um but 372 million. And then for other revenue I have 70 million. It's usually uh a drop quarter over quarter from Q2 to Q3.

I'm seeing 1.2 2 million and I don't know if I have um 55 cents of EPS, which I don't even know what the street is at right now. >> 54. Yeah. >> Yeah. Okay. So, I'm I'm I'm right in line.

>> Um so, I have 1215 for total revenue. Um, and yet I have 57 cents for EPS just because of that the way that they um their most of their costs are actually fixed. Um,

I don't know where I'm a little under yours, but um I guess we could go through like the nitty-gritty, but uh yeah, I mean trying there's a there's this quarter like there's a lot of things that we don't know like margin is one of those things where I think it's going to do very well. Uh and uh I don't know. I have I I really didn't know what to put there. What did you have for trade PMR in Bitstamp specifically, Tanner? Because that might be where I'm off because I

>> I'm not including trade PMR. Um might be a, you know, I I don't really know how to look at it too much. I'm just looking at the total assets under custody. >> And so that's inclusive of trade PMR now because it's >> um total assets under administration or whatever it changed to. Uh, and then I lowered the the take rate just slightly because the the rate cut just at the end. Um, and Bitstamp I have at I'll show you what I did.

>> We got the September monthto-day volumes. So, I'm sure you extrapolated a bit of that as well >> for uh Bitstamp. >> Well, for everything.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, so what I did um was monthto date I took the the total days that we saw so far, how many total trading days, the average daily volumes and then just extrapolated out how much there would be for the remaining days. So this is actually my se my September estimate for equity trading volume 240 billion uh options contracts 21817 million uh Robin Hood app crypto 9.6 billion and Bitstamp at 14.4 billion.

>> What's your overall crypto take rate? Uh my my cryptonotional volume is 0.54 or sorry 0.58 and then uh for Bitstamp I did 0.15. >> Yeah.

>> Because there's some >> there's some consumer uh volume in there but a lot of it like 80% is um institutional which is usually you know 120th practically one one10enth of of the take rate. So much much lower.

Okay. And then for others, you have 70. Um, are are you including 20 million of prediction markets in that or

>> prediction markets? I put in uh transactionbased revenue. >> Oh, okay. >> Okay.

Um, so that is just slightly higher. So if we go down to >> Sorry. Sorry, I'm all over the place. So, so if you take a look at my total um volume and the take rate that I assume, that's how I get to 305 million in options, 294 million in cryptocurrency, which is inclusive of Bitstamp, uh 84 million in equities, and then in other is where I have prediction markets, which went from 48 million to 80 million,

which Wait. So, so that Oh, that's in your others transaction revenues. Okay. >> Others transaction revenue. Yeah, >> exactly. >> Yeah,

>> it's in it's in others transaction. I just read it. Um other transaction based revenue primarily comprises revenue related to instant withdrawals uh interchange revenue which is offset by rewards and expenses and event contracts.

>> Okay, perfect. Okay, so that makes sense in transaction revenues then. Yeah, look, I agree with all your numbers. I I don't think this quarter is that hard to figure out. Uh the real question is going to be Q4,

but Roy, do you think there's any big disagreement with those numbers or

>> Um I Well, I had a couple of questions. So, one um Lenny in in my audience asked, "Is he counting staking crypto? Hood takes a percent of staking. Did you increase?"

>> No.

>> Okay. So, yeah, these are usually the way Tanner does these and and and I'm assuming it's the same way is that these are like pretty conservative. Um >> decently. Yeah. >> And and and then what's unknown is you either extrapolate or you're just like, well, that'll just be gravy on top. So, Right. Right.

>> and predictions overall, you said you had how much? TW

>> uh I added roughly around 20 million, something like that.

>> Yeah, I was at 25, but yeah, that's that's close. And then uh the other that was a real standout from last quarter um was the securities lending which increased dramatically. Did you break that out or did you accommodate for that? Okay.

>> No, I I only look at uh net interest revenue just just here in terms of taking a percentage and trying to follow that as like a trend.

>> was a good bit higher on net interest income. Um which I I you know accounted for the rate cuts, but I don't know if securities lender was the reason why. Yes,

>> margin also a standout for me.

>> This is the sort of the trend line that we've been seeing. And then if I just take this and move this over one, all I'm assuming is that that trend sort of continues, right? >> Um not making any drastic changes and then letting the amount of assets under management just continue to flow onto platform and uh making no additional assumptions about it. Just a continued trend of a lower percentage.

>> so that's what I was going to ask. You didn't think buybacks would happen this quarter?

>> No, I do. I do think buybacks are going to happen. Um, but I think it they they said in their earnings that they're going to um buy back enough to >> like flatten stockbased compensation. >> Yeah. Okay.

>> So, I don't think that their share count's going to go down in 2025. I just think they're looking to offset >> SBC.

>> Okay. So, then here's the question. Earnings are going to be I look 1.89% year-over-year growth is phenomenal. Operating leverage is still going to be amazing. Um, all the the core metrics are likely going up and to the right. The question is about the stock. What do you guys think? Because Bitcoin and Ethereum are not cooperating in Q4. October was horrendous. November so far is a disaster. Uh, I know it's only three days in, but it's not good. So, if the street's looking forward to Q4, which they're going to have to beat a billion in revenue, and I think there's ways they can, even if they have a massive Q3, is it enough in your opinion to get the stock, you know, above alltime highs at 150?

>> So, they they several things would have to happen. Um, one is probably a pretty nice beat, which is possible. There's there's some numbers that we don't know out there. Um, >> they would I think they would also probably need to release the October numbers and they would have to look a lot better than we expect because we know c- crypto is going to be horrendous.

Um, and coupled with that, you know, they'll have to really break out and share more, which I think that they absolutely will and I think it will show the ramp that's happening in the predictions market more than, you know, what Vlad shut off when they hit the four billion uh mark. Uh, I think that that could excite things and get us back to all-time highs, but yeah, my guess is we probably have a pullback. Um,

I think that Robin Hood is getting really good at, you know, almost like what SoFi did where whenever certain activities in their business are not working, they're focusing on other things.

>> Yeah. And so sports markets are really really strong right now. And so so event contracts, they've been pushing out hundreds of new contracts, making sure that they have all the big games before they happen. Uh we just saw huge volume on these pro baseball championships, uh NBA, all of like look at that. $25 million in revenue in October.

>> Yeah. >> Is that Hold on. Is that one I know you do a good job uh tracking this, but is that legit? like how confident are you that you're right on those numbers? 25 million.

Well, technically it's not that hard to figure it out, right? 2.5 >> and he'll he'll reply, but what I've seen is he's very conservative because he takes basically only what he can actually see and extrapolate. He doesn't accommodate for numbers where people actually exit the contracts early or things that he doesn't observe either and usually just tracks his main event. So, this is a um I don't know, it sounds aggressive, but I don't think that he is. Uh which that could hedge against crypto in Q4 to be honest.

>> And and this is insane because you know I I'm predicting and and maybe you're you're higher than me admit but I'm predicting about 25 million from the entire quarter for predictions market previously. >> Yes. >> And this is a fast ramp. Really fast.

Yeah. I I want some more clarity around this from Hood because we need to confirm that the volume we're seeing is Robin Hood volume. Like, are we sure about that? that when you trade on Rob Nood those

>> I'm pretty sure I asked Vlad in an elevator and he said yes

>> but I'm not even 100% sure if he is paying all that close of attention to this product. I'm sure a team is fully taking care of this product

>> because dude, they might have we we might have entered into the greatest business model ever

>> because because when you really think about it and I want to play this clip from uh the Khi uh founder Trek, he's getting >> he's getting wrecked for this clip online because people just love to hate. But like when you really understand what he's saying, it has to be the greatest business.

>> Prediction markets are extremely cool and very useful society in terms of like engage with the news more meaningfully and see the future better. But it's not just that like the core unlock that could happen in prediction markets is like if you forecast the future better you are pricing risk like you price any risk and and what I mean by that is like now we have a better way to measure all these risks that could happen to companies to government to humanity to anything whether it's you know climate covid health um the economy all you know politics all these different things and and if you can price risk then you can do make better decisions about risk like if understand the risk better, you can make better decisions about how to manage it and also you can like transfer it like you can hedge and I think that's where the institutions will the market really really becomes very very large because institutions are very exposed to all types of bad things happening in the future they don't have control over

>> okay so the reason he got clowned on X is because he was seen as like the typical tech bro who's talking about democratizing yada yada and like like you know yes it's it's a very easy clip to make fun of and make a meme out of but at its core he's saying you can make a prediction market out of anything. If Robin Hood does this over the next five years and just makes prediction markets out of anything and this is the way that institutions, hedge funds, investors, etc. use to to either a bet or b price risk, which means hedge and sort of navigate their own positions. Like the more and more events that become important, the more and more people that enter into this ecosystem of prediction markets, even if they're not actively trading, even if they're just consuming, this is going to be a billion dollar business for them. at some point over the next five years and and and the the scalability of that likely is a hedge against a lot of the other cyclical parts of the business.

是的，我想我们上周或两周前讨论过一篇关于在 AI 世界里，当你不知道什么是真什么是假时，预测市场价值的策略文章。我认为可能会有操纵行为，尤其是在这个市场变得越来越知名和流行的时候。

预测市场的操纵风险

这就是问题所在，Brian Armstrong（Coinbase CEO）做了什么？我们要不要谈谈那个？因为对我来说，那太荒谬了。

他基本上完全操纵了加密市场。这是他在他们电话会议的最后说的话。

我有点分心，因为我正在追踪关于 Coinbase 在下次财报电话会议上会说什么的预测市场。我只想在这里补充一下比特币、以太坊、区块链、质押和 Web3 这几个词，以确保我们在电话会议结束前把它们都说出来。

我知道这听起来很有趣，但我一听到就觉得这是我见过最尬的事情。我不认为 Brian Armstrong 有一些朋友在赌这些词，然后他觉得这是个有趣的笑话。但我立刻想到，天啊，这完全是核心的内幕交易。想想看，虽然 Coinbase 电话会议的那个合约可能不那么受欢迎，Robinhood 的合约上只有不到 2 万美元，但你只让那些赌“是”的人赚钱了。你把所有赌“否”的人都给坑了。

那是最糟糕的部分。

也许是因为 Brian 喜欢这些词，比如比特币、以太坊、稳定币，所以他想让投“是”的人赢。但这很奇怪，老兄。我可以想象，不仅仅是在 Robinhood 的财报电话会议上，在任何财报电话会议上，如果你赌的是人们会说什么，监管机构会在什么时候介入？

我不喜欢这样，老兄。我真的认为这是一个问题。如果你有一个没有任何道德或伦理的人，处于有影响力的位置，然后他们能够利用这种影响力，就像 Coinbase 的 CEO 一样，这真的让我感到不舒服。我甚至不觉得那是个笑话，他做的方式就让人感觉很恶心。我绝不期望 Vlad 会做那样的事，但如果他做了呢？

你把橙子和苹果作比较。这是一个全新的产品，让你能够为某人说某个词的概率定价，这在以前从未存在过。

是的，但想法是一样的。你在改变结果之前设置了赌注。

赌注从来都不是关于某人说某个词，而是一份财报。

但问题是，没有人需要再下注了。如果政治家或其他人是那个下注的人。另一边那些说“不，他不会说‘社交’”的人，简直就是堕落的赌徒。你需要一个市场才能赚钱。

我不明白你的观点。我的观点是，如果你能为影响力定价……

如果没有市场，你就无法定价。

不，但市场存在与否是无关紧要的。关键是，让那个市场没有任何程度的监管不是一件好事，因为那样你就可以让 Brian Armstrong 想说什么就说什么，完全坑害一方。我的观点是，那不是一个有效的市场，也不是一个公平的市场。除非我们根本不在乎，那就另当别论了。

等一下，就像 Brian Armstrong 不能在财报发布前三天告诉你第二季度的业绩结果一样。内部人士有静默期是有原因的。

不，我同意。

那为什么他可以被允许操纵一个不受监管的预测市场呢？就像他可能会提前告诉你结果，然后你可以在那之前买入或卖出股票一样。这是同样的概念。对于你能说什么，不能说什么，是有规定的。

监管的必要性与市场自净能力

我认为，如果你意识到市场是如此明显地可被操纵，比如“嘿，说个词”，然后你看到像 Brian Armstrong 这样的人只是为了好玩就出来把所有词都说了，那就别跟他们对着干。根本就不需要有这个市场。

不，Tanner，那种逻辑经不起监管框架的推敲，而这个框架是必要的，以确保 Brian Armstrong 或任何 CEO 不会通过让朋友赌某个词然后说出来的方式操纵市场。而且你无法证明 Brian Armstrong 知道他有一群朋友在赌这个词。他可能只是为了好玩而说，但如果存在这种意图，那就是明显的操纵，对吧？那就像他给朋友发短信一样。

这就像在操纵一个不存在的市场。人们只会停止把钱投入这些东西。就像我说的 Robinhood 那个合约，交易额不到 2 万美元。这不像在你拉高股价之前买入数亿美元的英伟达股票。易手的钱也就几千美元。

是的，但这个论点不成立。如果我们期望整个市场能大规模复合增长，最终交易额将远不止 2 万美元。

是的，对于重要的事件，比如谁会赢得棒球比赛，谁会赢得下一次选举，因为这些事情更难操纵。至于谁会在财报电话会议上说什么，是的，他们可以移除那些市场。

我同意存在问题。我认为市场会自己解决这个问题，通过不参与那些赌注，因为他们意识到这些赌注会被严重操纵。这就像在玩三张牌的骗局，我们都知道那是骗局，你就会停止玩。那不是一个公平的游戏。

我认为，需要更明确的监管框架。其中之一是，如果你或你认识的人将从你影响预测市场的决定中获得重大利益，那是不允许的。你不能那么做。当然，这很难证明，举证责任应该在 SEC 或其他组织身上。但我担心的是未来的发展方向。

Robinhood 的其他业务拓展

你们怎么看 Sage 和 Hood 正式合作推出折扣抵押贷款利率？

是的，这很有趣。Vlad 的评论中提到，这项服务现在面向 Robinhood Gold 年度会员。我很好奇这是否为未来开创了先例，也许会有更多针对年度会员的福利。但这很好。

Vlad 谈论此事时，听起来好像需求巨大。我相信确实有一些需求，但现在房地产市场非常冷淡。所以，如果未来几年市场真正升温，那将非常有趣。此外，可能还会有很多其他优惠，不仅是针对 Sage，也可能针对其他合作伙伴，甚至可能是 SoFi，面向那些被充分了解且富裕的 Robinhood Gold 用户群体。

你认为他们会和 OpenDoor 合作吗？

我正想问这个。甚至连“民主化住房”这个措辞，Cass（OpenDoor CEO）过去几周也一直在说我们需要民主化住房所有权。

很明显，他们在使用 Sage 的技术。Cass 和 Vlad 显然有过交流。看起来他们可能看到了互利合作的机会。你认为与 OpenDoor 合作会是什么样子？

我不知道，如果你购买房屋可能会有折扣，或者如果你把房子挂在 OpenDoor 上可能会有更好的利率。

如果你是 Robinhood Gold 会员，可以节省 500 美元的过户费。

有人说会是代币化的房屋。

我不确定那是什么意思。OpenDoor 的房屋将在 Robinhood 的新交易平台上被代币化，以交易房地产的代币化部分。

你可以购买一批房屋，就像购买一部分房屋一样。

好的，我明白你的意思了。是的，房屋的部分所有权或零散所有权。

总结与最终展望

好的。所以我们认为财报会很好。预测市场是一个巨大的顺风车，不会消失。很可能没有监管框架会阻止它的增长。这个 Sage 房屋贷款项目长期来看绝对是利好，我认为这进一步推动了他们向银行业进军。

看，到年底我们还没有看到银行业务的全面推出。一些人已经获得了访问权限，但大多数人还没有。我认为 Robinhood 正在努力确保他们把用户体验做到极致。他们有 2700 万用户，也许他们邀请了几十万人参与试点测试，就像他们为房屋贷款和银行业务所做的那样。但这似乎是 2026 年的一大推动力，就是通过银行业务正式提供真正的金融服务。

然后是新加坡，我猜向东南亚的扩张可能会在 2025 年发生。所以你在明年初有银行业务和国际扩张，加上我们在峰会上看到的所有 AI 核心技术。然后你在十二月还有另一个 AI 活动，再加上一个强劲的季度。这是否足以让这只股票突破 150 美元？我想这是我们必须拭目以待的问题。

是的，我不知道。我实际上有点预计它会下跌，只是因为它一直在上涨。但无论如何，年初至今的表现看起来相当不错。

它是标普 500 指数中表现最好的股票。

拥有这样的股票感觉很好。

老兄，不过这很好。还有另一件事，老兄。我认为我们现在说这个很重要，因为在 Palantir 财报发布前我可能说得不够多，鉴于现在股价低于 200 美元，人们都在恐慌。如果这只股票跌到 130 美元，年初至今只上涨了 254% 而不是 272%，我只希望人们不要恐慌。人们会恐慌，但我希望一个理智的投资者不会因为一只股票上涨了 230% 而恐慌，即使它年初至今曾上涨 170%。是的，如果 Robinhood 跌掉三四十美元，投资组合会受到重创，我理解人们对此感到恐慌的人性。但这是你需要退一步看，说他们今年做得非常出色，Vlad 为股东们执行得非常出色。如果你在这些价位买入，你必须准备好进行定期定额投资（DCA: Dollar-Cost Averaging）如果市场就是不想给它更高的溢价，这种情况可能会发生。

是的。我认为如果你审视这家公司，那些你在它上涨时喜欢的东西，在财报后开始下跌时并没有改变。Vlad 继续以比任何人都快的速度迭代产品。他们以非常高的成功率迅速进入新的垂直领域。就像我们发现了银行业务、信用卡或预测市场一样，未来还会有新的业务。会有我们甚至没有想到的新领域，他们会进入，这将把我们带过 200 美元。

你必须相信这一点，因为我们过去几年看到了历史性的成功。如果你不相信这种执行力，你就应该卖掉这只股票。

是的，那就说明你只是不喜欢 Robinhood。

获利了结也没什么错。

是的。我们看到他们不断扩大他们的潜在市场总额（TAM: Total Addressable Market）。有很多已知的方向他们正在扩张，并且将会扩张。其中很多是国际市场，虽然目前主要还是在美国，但在国际市场上还处于早期阶段，未来几年将会真正加速。我们会有熊市和加密货币寒冬，那时它表现不会那么好，但这没关系。

关于 Grab 财报的激烈辩论

我们本应该也谈谈 Grab 和 Chime。Chime 的财报也快要发布了。

对于所有问到 Grab 的人，我明天会谈。因为关于 Grab 有很多要讨论的，所以我甚至不想现在提。这不是一个五分钟的讨论。我会写一篇文章，明天早上会详细谈。长话短说，财报很好。我认为，我们要看看市场的反应。

如果让你给这份财报打个分，你会给多少？

A-。有几个指标在我看来可以更好一些，但我希望看到的都看到了。Tanner 只是讨厌 Grab，所以他刚才翻了个白眼。

不，我只是觉得任何带 A 的评分都太疯狂了。那是我见过最平庸的财报。

为什么？首先，Tanner，我听你在直播里说，“什么是 group MTU？”你不能说财报平庸，却连月度交易用户（MTU: Monthly Transacting Users）代表什么都不知道。你不了解这个业务，这没关系。

这不是一个那么难懂的业务。它就是一个金融科技公司和 Uber 的结合体。他们没有创造新东西。

这是你发表过的最疯狂的言论。他们找到了一个新的地理市场。

我不完全了解这个业务，但我知道营收增长 17% 是什么水平，而你却要为此支付相当高的溢价。你可以去投资 New Bank 或 DLocal，找到 40-50% 以上的营收增长和更好的利润率。这有什么好兴奋的？你为什么不直接去买 Uber？

Tanner 说财报是基于绝对值的，他没有考虑之前的财报或预期。他只是看了一眼，觉得很平庸。Emit，你可能是根据预期或之前的财报在打分。

你不能用“股价没涨”作为财报不是 A- 的理由。如果真是这样，SoFi 过去五个季度的财报都……

我认为这削弱了“平庸”这个论点的合法性。你不喜欢这家公司，所以我理解你为什么这么说，但是……

我只是说，所有东西都是基于百分比的。这就是为什么很容易看一家公司然后判断，好吧，这是一家快速增长的公司还是一家缓慢增长的公司。你可以很快判断一家公司是成长型公司还是价值型公司。

他们的增长来自哪里？来自他们的贷款组合。世界上任何一家公司都可以增长他们的贷款组合。

这需要多大的技巧啊。

不，不，不。你错了，原因如下。如果你出去发钱，任何人都会要。贷款组合只有在承销表现良好时才有意义。任何人都可以贷款。

把钱收回来才是难点。

等等。Grab 是如何进行承销的？他们的竞争优势是什么？

不，不，但好吧，这是我的问题。你不能说大部分收入增长或业务增长来自贷款发放，然后说任何人都可以放贷，因为在没有实际分析业务、听财报电话会议、讨论 Grab 作为一家金融科技公司拥有的、东南亚其他所有银行都没有的数百个不同变量的情况下，就说放钱出去超级容易。这就是为什么他们的信贷损失准备金控制得很好，并且能够将贷款规模扩大到十亿美元的年化运行率，因为他们知道商家的收入，知道司机的收入，知道他们的月度交易情况，他们的网络效应中有变量，实际上允许他们进行承销，并向三分之一的人口提供贷款，这些人去东南亚的银行会被嘲笑。给一个每月赚 500 美元的司机贷款？Grab 可以给那个人贷款，因为他们实际上知道他们能收回钱。所以当你说任何人都可以放贷，却不看东南亚作为商业环境的复杂性或 Grab 在承销方面的网络效应，然后说财报平庸……

我只是对你给出了最高的字母等级感到惊讶。

看，如果现在股价是 7.25 美元，你可能根本不会争论这个，但事实并非如此。所以我明白，这是基于价格反应。

这是一场有趣的辩论。每个人都应该质疑自己的投资逻辑。想想我不得不在 Palantir 股价 6 美元时经历多少次这样的辩论，Tanner 在 SoFi 股价 7 美元时也一样。这就是长期持有一只股票的艰难时期。有趣的是，你是否能捍卫它，然后长期来看是否能被证明是正确的。我们拭目以待。

好了，感谢大家。我们周三会回来直播报道 Robinhood 的财报。我们大概会在 3:30 开始直播，希望我们能得到一个好的季度报告，并打破他们的历史新高。

女士们先生们，明天是 Shopify 的财报日。

那是个大新闻。

对我来说是巨头，第二大持仓。所以会密切关注。

好的，很棒。感谢大家。我们周三见。