Amit: All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close. We are live. What a day it has been. What a day. What a week. It has been quite the journey navigating the equity markets this week and we are ending green. At least that's what it looks like.

Amit: Now it's not as green as we were at the height of it today. 672 on the S&P 500. Quite frankly, we are very close to going red for the day, which as I said in the morning, it's not the worst thing in the world to end red as long as the red is not as bad as it was in the pre-markets. 672 on the S&P 500. could theoretically get to like 668, 69 and still that would be better than the 663 level that we had this morning.

Amit: Tesla green it was at 382 in the morning. Right now it's green. Robin got to 114. It's at 123. Nvidia was at 191. Now it's at 189. You're getting a little bit of a selloff as we get to the close. Couple different headlines that could be affecting it that we'll talk about in a second. AMD could not go green. Nebia is still down 5%. CoreWeave almost it did go green for a bit. Capp to 80 now back at 77. That's down. Netflix down because of some concerns of them buying Warner Brothers Discovery. Palantir going green at 174. At one point, Palantir got to 176.

Amit: I mean, basically, you're seeing a lot of these assets either end green or end slightly green or end slightly red, which is not the worst thing in the world. S&P just going red right there, but still above 670. BMR wreck today down 6.3%. Why Ethereum right there at 3100, that's down 1%. Bitcoin as well did get back to 97 right back to 94 over the past 30 minutes. So, crypto assets really have not been cooperating in a meaningful way.

Amit: We didn't get a big whipsaw to the downside throughout the day even if we are kind of going red towards the close. But we didn't get a massive massive massive whipsaw backside alltime highs. The recovery from the pre-market lows I think was the move higher that kind of stabilized a lot of portfolios for the day and potentially got rid of a lot of margin calls and stop losses etc. But nonetheless still an ugly day and ugly week across the board for most people.

Amit: Robin right there 123 Rock Lab at 4527. We got a lot of macro stuff to get into, a lot of different headlines to talk about. We'll be having a startup join the show at 4:30 and we'll get to hear from some of the new products that are out there in the crypto financial ecosystem. First off, we got Tom Lee. Let's hear what he has to say and then we will keep going from there.

Scott: >> Also the chairman of Bitmine. So, it's good to have you. Um, Ether's down eight and a half% this week. Bitcoin's down eight. Bit mine is down 20. What's happening here,

Tom Lee: >> Scott? I think we're still seeing the repercussions of that April 10th crypto deleveraging event. You know, it was the biggest deleveraging event ever. And there are still, I think, some market makers that have some balance sheet issues that are trying to raise capital. So, I think that this is leading to a market that is kind of raised. You know, every time we get a bit of a rally, there's some capital trying to be raised. And I think that's what's suppressing crypto for now. That's of course going to end soon. But I think that's led to why crypto has underperformed equities since October 10th.

Scott: Can can crypto treasuries uh like yours for example, can they trade as well uh or in tandem with a cryptocurrency itself or does one have to trade at the expense of the other? If I'm going to see money flow into Bitcoin or crypto treasuries, wouldn't it then come out of the actual pure play coin itself?

Tom Lee: Uh not exactly, Scott. For instance, when Bitmine uh has shareholders and institutional capital comes in and you know JP Morgan, Invesco, Black Rockck are buying big stakes, then that capital is then used to buy Ethereum. So it's it's actually going back into the ecosystem, but then it's going into a vehicle like Bitmine that's actually a permanent holder. You know, Bitmine owns three and a half million Ethereum, more than 2.9% of the supply. But now that is not going to be subject to liquidations because there's no leverage used to hold that Ethereum.

Tom Lee: And then at some point that 3.6 million or 3.5 million Ethereum is going to be staked and then generate, you know, nearly $400 million in net income. Well, that can create returns for shareholders. So, in a way, a crypto treasury is actually a a pretty attractive equity because there's a, you know, income component plus there's, of course, that ability to grow your Ethereum holdings per share.

Scott: But, well, what if what if crypto treasuries become more favored than than crypto itself? There's there's no negative impact for either the way that Ether or Bitcoin would trade if just more money floods towards the Treasury part of the story.

Tom Lee: Well, one it's it's a conduit because as you know equity managers uh many of them the 4,000 can't own crypto directly. So that so they have to get exposure to Ethereum by buying a stock like Bitmine and Bitmine is the 438th largest stock in America today. It's not that different than if someone wanted to have exposure to energy. They can buy oil and trade a commodity or they can take like oil barrels at home or they can buy an oil related stock, you know, either a major or something in the supply chain. That's that's what crypto treasuries are is essentially an asset class that gives you direct exposure to the crypto asset.

Scott: All right, let's pivot to the market itself. Um, is your confidence at all shaken in in where we are and what you thought the prospects for an endofear run could be after what we've seen this week?

Tom Lee: Well, it's never fun to see markets um wobble and then stocks that are quite popular like AI and the quantum uh and nuclear come down so hard, but it is consistent with the idea that, you know, we were up six months through October. So, the market's overbought. We expected two weeks of consolidation, which is what we're getting. And then, of course, as you know, there's hawkish Fed talk. So, there's a bit of a tantrum the market's having. But between now and year end, we still have really good seasonals. The earnings have been good. Sentiment has flipped negative, Scott, as you could tell. I mean, the AI went to negative 17.5. So, I I'd say the riskreward is still really good for equities into year end. And yeah, I think the S&P will be over 7,000 by the end of the year. You know, in fact, maybe over 7,000 by the end of the month.

Scott: >> No cut in December. Let's just say that that's the now the base case. Uh and AI remains volatile. you know, the broadening trade looked pretty good at times this week to where we were thinking of, okay, maybe we're going to get an everything rally. You think that's possible?

Tom Lee: >> Uh, yeah. I mean, I think one reason the the Fed is backpedaling on a cut in December is not because they have more confidence that inflation is uh strengthening. In fact, you know, many of them said they just don't know, but in general, they agree it's probably not. It's I think that there are signs that the labor market is maybe stabilizing. So you actually have a Fed waffling for the right reason, which is look, if the employment market's holding up, the Fed doesn't have to cut. That's still a good environment for equities. I'm not trying to like spin it, but it's not a bad reason if the Fed is starting to have second thoughts.

Scott: >> Okay, Tom, >> I got to leave it there. I I appreciate you. I've got some news that I have to get to though. I'll see you soon. That's Tom Lee.

Amit: We are now getting The thing on a day like this is, you know, honestly, there's just not much that he can say that's going to alleviate the concerns that people have. I mean, look, BMR stock has basically been dead over the past couple of weeks. Uh, really, literally, I don't think he can say anything unless Ethereum makes a move. So, you can go into the technicals of a digital asset treasury and explain all the nuances. No one cares on a day like this. And then when you say 7,000 end a month, I mean, again, [laughter] if it happens, I think we'd all be happy. But obviously, it's a little tough to believe.

Amit: And the reason it's tough to believe is because unfortunately, um, this December rate cut is looking like it's just not going to happen. If you look at the new Fed probabilities for a December rate cut, we are now under 50%. As Bitcoin goes down, we were at least at 51 in the morning. We're at 45. Uh based on what I've been hearing and we we'll discuss some of the headlines, you just got a lot of Fed presidents that are coming out. Even Fed Logan today said for December meeting it would be hard to support another rate cut.

Amit: I mean, at this point, it's almost like the Fed presidents kind of came together and decided they would unilaterally start pivoting from their stance on the labor market versus inflation. There are legitimate concerns about inflation. Not saying that there's not. Uh but but the but it's almost a full 180 from what we heard a couple weeks ago and I think that's going to piss off a lot of people. One of those is the president who really needs this affordable economy and rates going lower would help to make it affordable. But I don't know gun to my head I would say it's tough to imagine we're going to get that rate cut just based on how the Fed's speaking. You got to have a little bit more unanimous consent and right now you're not seeing that.

Amit: Tesla right there 404 Robin Hood holding 12260. Nvidia still holding 190. Uh, Palunteer is green on the day and the S&P slightly selling off pound right there 17393. And you know that is why I think that next week is going to be really interesting. Obviously we've got Nvidia earnings. Nvidia got a bunch of different upgrades today and we talked about some of those in the morning. All those upgrades, Bank of America 275, Morgan Stanley 220, all those upgrades are rooted in just reasonable earnings estimates if you go out a year or two to try to understand what the multiples should look like. Fear and greed by the way at 23.

Amit: The problem is even if Nvidia puts up good estimates and that's why Tom at the end he said I'm not trying to spin it but at its core he was trying to spin it right and and the spin is that even if the Fed doesn't cut rates it's okay and the way you make the spin is by saying well if the Fed's not cutting because the labor market is healthy then earnings are good enough which means we don't technically need to cut.

Amit: The problem is I don't think anyone believes the labor market is healthy. And so if the labor market's not healthy and the Fed's not cutting it, earnings will go down and you're not going to get any monetary easing support by the Fed. So it's it's like a double whammy that could really really mess up the end of year going into Q4.

Amit: Now, we don't know how that's going to play out and maybe Tom Lee is right that the labor market is strong enough and the Fed is more worried about inflation. Therefore, earnings will be fine because, you know, the labor market will sustain itself and they don't technically need to cut. But it's hard to imagine$7,000 on the S&P not pricing in another rate cut. I mean, it's really hard to believe we go to 7,000 as he said, and you don't get a cut. Like I would imagine you think you would need to get a cut.

Amit: And so for everyone saying, "Well, it's so obvious that the labor market is down. Why isn't the Fed recognizing that?" I don't know. I [laughter] I just I have no idea this week how they came to the conclusion that inflation matters way more than everything else. But that is the Fed speak we're getting and the Fed future pro probabilities are now heavily discounting the ability for a December recup.

Amit: Labor market is fine as long as we don't get jobs data. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. It's amazing if we don't get the data. I don't know. We're going to have to see what we get going into next week. The one thing I can say is at least we are getting a rebound as we get into the close 671. We talked a lot about in the morning is the structural uh fundamentals of this bull market incomplete in regards to the AI trade. The answer is no.

Amit: We do have some updates on AI in regards to Alibaba and Oracle that we'll talk about in a second, but that I I don't think that's the reason we sold off. I think the reason we sold off over the past couple days and you know we are relatively where we were a couple weeks ago, but the reason I think we sold off is because uh of this lack of certainty around a rate cut. I don't think it has anything to do with the AI trade. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think it really does have to do with we don't know if we're getting a rate cut. And if we don't know, then the market will be scared.

Amit: Bitcoin right there, 94. Nasty candle as we get into the close. We were holding 96 for the better part of an hour. Ethereum has somehow stayed above 3,000. And you would imagine today with all the liquidations and leverage that Ethereum would have kind of chopped below around that 2829 level, but it did not. 3132 right there on Ethereum.

Amit: And that is what we got. All right, folks. Been an ugly week, ugly day. It It could have been a much uglier day. So, you got to have a bit of gratitude here. Pre-markets were way worse than what we are ending on. Basically, we're going to be ending flat on the day, which I think anyone would take at 671. But, nonetheless, we are closing out the second week of November. Thank you everybody for being here. Friday, November 14th. The stock market is now closed.

Amit: All right, we end out the day flat on the S&P. 67196. 67196. Tesla 404. Tesla was at 382. So a $400 close. Not the worst thing in the world. Robin Hood got to 110 in the morning. 12250. Nvidia 190.17. That's up 1.77%. Nebas right there 8354. This one did bounce off the low 80s but did not get into that 90 level. It tried to at 89 but then got hit again. Corore right there at 7736. MP materials 5861. That's up 1.862%. Hims 3702 up 2.69. Micron up 4%. Bitcoin 94.4. before Ethereum 3100. Rocket Lab right there 4554. Rocket Lab did try to get around to that 4849 level got rejected around there. So 4550. It did get to the 41s in the pre-market.

Amit: Uh Nvidia gets a 190 close. I think that's more of the market being excited about Nvidia um earnings that are coming up. And there's a lot to be excited about for Nvidia earnings because it's one of the best companies in the world. It's just a question of can it trade, you know, in that five trillion dollar market cap range like it did a couple weeks ago, even with the macro being off tilts.

Amit: Oaklo closes the day below 100. Quantum D-Wave actually ends up green on the day. These stocks were all down 10% in the pre-market. INQ up 4% on the day. Regetti right here up 1.1% on the day. BMR down about 5.8%. You got Bitcoin 94,000. and then pound it right here. 174 green on the day.

Amit: All right, let's get into some of these headlines because we have a bunch of different things that are breaking in terms of news. First of all, let's just look at the Alibaba headline that we had today because this was a pretty weird one, but it definitely took Alibaba stock down a couple percentage points. Let me pull this up real quick and then we will keep going from there.

Amit: >> Here's what the company is saying. They say the assertions and innuendos in the article are completely false. We question the motivation behind the anonymous leak, which the FT admits that they cannot verify. This malicious PR operation clearly came from a rogue voice looking to undermine President Trump's recent trade deal with China. That's the statement uh attributable to an Alibaba group spokesperson. So Scott, an aggressive response here from the company to that report from the FT, which as you mentioned

Amit: >> now again, what did the FT say? Official White House memo claims Alibaba is supplying Chinese military with tech to target the United States. Alibaba provides tech support for Chinese military operations against targets in the US according to intelligence studied in a White House national security memo raising concerns about the technology giant. Obviously, Baba was saying that's false today. The official memo provided to the Financial Times includes declassified top secret intelligence on how the Chinese group supplies the People's Liberation Army with capabilities that the White House believes would threaten US security.

Amit: When I saw this headline, quite frankly, I was like, "Okay, I [laughter] was like, the idea that the tech companies in China are not supplying the Chinese military with the capabilities to target the US." I I kind of didn't think it was that much of a story to be honest. It's like, of course, they are. Like, there there was really no doubt that I think people thought that was going to happen. But Baba did fall three and a half% and about 2.3% as soon as that news came out.

Amit: The bigger implication from this realistically is on Nvidia. And the reason it's on Nvidia is because look, Jensen has this dream of, you know, getting that 50 to70 billion dollar TAM from China if the White House lets him sell into China. I mean, if the White House memo is claiming that Baba's helping Chinese military targets, there is no way that I think Trump's going to be like, "Oh yeah, Nvidia, sell your chips to BABA that's just going to use those chips, the best version of those chips to then target the United States."

Amit: So, I think it's very, very unlikely that we are going to get Nvidia revenue coming back to China. It seems like all the street analysts kind of don't care about that. And Jensen is stating so much domestic demand that it doesn't really matter, but um you know, more and more of these stories makes it unlikely that we're going to get that Chinese demand.

Amit: Uh we do have some 13Fs. Draen Miller, here's what he did. New positions in Amazon, Meta, and Chipotle. Amazon, Meta, and Chipotle. New positions is what Draen Miller added. Top five buys were Amazon, Meta, StubHub, and Figure, the banking company around Bitcoin. And then top five sales included Eli Lily and Microsoft. New positions again, Amazon and Meta. He exited Goldman Sachs and Microsoft. Exited Goldman Sachs and Microsoft.

Amit: I don't see Nvidia's 13F yet, guys. Let me see if I can pull it up if it is disclosed. There's a couple that still haven't been disclosed, including Altimters. Um it should be coming out like now. So it should be coming out any second. Then we'll see what Nvidia has um in terms of their stakes. But this is what we have from Stanley Duck Miller.

Amit: Then after Stanley, you have our boy Chase Coleman from Tiger Global. Um he did not sell any of his graph. He has 92 million shares. Did not touch those positions. He did add Netflix, MongoDB, Crowdstrike, Eli Liy, and Novo. So, he did add those new positions. Again, Tiger Global, Chase Coleman about $ 32 billion.

Amit: As we can see right here, he added 3% to Amazon, reduced Meta by 62%, reduced Reddit by 24%, added to Broadcom, added to Flutter, added to GE Veronova. Uh, he bought Netflix 201,000 shares, bought MongoDB, 340,000 shares, sold 72% of Sherwin Williams, sold 22% of Zillow. Uh, bought Bullish, Kathy likes that one as well. Bought Figure, another person that likes Figure along with Stanley Ducken Miller. Bought Clara, 175,000 shares. He bought Figma, 60,000 shares. And those were some of the main buys that he had on his portfolio. He kept all of his Weeble. He has 11 million shares of Weeble, and he has 11 million shares of New Bank. Did not trim any of those positions.

Amit: UNH. Is he in UNH? Yeah, he kept his UNH. 438,000 shares for UNH as well. So, that's what you have from some of these 13Fs. And Nvidia should be coming out soon. Also, Altimter's 13F should be coming out soon. And um we'll be able to see what they did. Yeah, still not out yet for Altimter. Still not out yet for Altimter. pounder right at there 174 S&P 500 67191 and that one still flat after hours.

Amit: Okay, Oracle. So, what was the big news on Oracle? We need to see Triple V's 13F. You know, he's he's he's taken stakes sometimes where he actually had to legit disclose with the SEC. So, he's definitely had those moments. Um Oracle. Okay, so what's going on with Oracle? Uh Oracle's debt is having some issue. We talked about this and this is another reason probably we had a bit of a sell-off into the close. By the way, Google investing 40 billion in data centers in Texas. That headline just came out right now. Is Google moving after hours on this. Google's Yeah, Google's up 2%. Is this the reason? There's got to be something else. There's got to be something else. 40 billion in data centers can't be up 2%.

Amit: Also, that news came out right before the close, so I doubt that's the reason why we're pumping. Let's see. Did some Maybe someone took a stake in Google that's highly influential. Is there really the 40 billion? Could that really be the reason? Could that really be the reason why it's pumped at 40 billion for I mean, that's them spending money. First of all, super bullish for the AI trade because Google is spending 40 billion. But why would the stock go up 2% on them spending money? In fact, if they have to issue some debt to spend that money, which we don't know, but if they did, you would get the opposite reaction.

Amit: Yeah. I have no idea. I have no idea why Google's there. Uh there's I mean, did did Birkshshire buy Google or something? That's that is weird to see Google spike on that. Still holding the spike, too. Still holding 2%. Irene after hours up a little bit. Nebius after hours up. I mean, all the data center plays up a little bit on the headline that they're spending more on data centers. They're probably going to outsource some of that 40 billion to these other players. Dracon Miller didn't buy Google. Not from what I see. If Birkshar brought Google, that would be pretty wild.

Amit: Gemini. Yeah, but Gemini 3 is a bit older news. I don't know if that's enough to pump it after hours on a Friday. Is it Birkshar? Hold on. I'm trying to confirm if it's Birkshshire. This could also be fake. Have a lot of people saying fake stuff. I see one screenshot. Do not know if that's accurate. I mean, it looks accurate, but I could be dead wrong. Hold on. Is it Buffett by Berkshire? Hold on. Uh, I have to confirm for myself. I got Okay, hold on. I got the holdings. Let me see. Added. I've got to see. If he did, then that's a fundamentally different shift. New positions. Buffett. He added Google. He added 17 million shares of Google. Oh my goodness. Buffett's in. Burkshshire is in 17 million shares. of Google.

Amit: [laughter] Holy crap. Is Birkshshire embracing technology now? Whoa. You would think Google would be up a lot more. Dude, if this wasn't a crappy week, Google would be up like 7% right now. Like this is Birkshar freaking Hathaway. the implications even if Buffett's not running it anymore of the brand of Birkshshire taking a stake in your company.

Amit: This was Q3, right? So, their average price, I mean, we don't know yet, but it's got it's probably below 200. It has to be below 200. Google was trading between 150 and 180 that whole time. It has to be. Damn. That means they're already up on it. They're already up in a in a sizable way. Wow.

Amit: I don't know if this was Greg Ael, if this was Buffett, but Berkshire buys 17.8 million shares. Four billion. That is correct. Four billion. Oh my goodness. Yeah. And this is after hours. So, obviously on on Yeah. on on the uh on the market open on Monday, you might get a different reaction from Google.

Amit: Dude, again, the these guys fill out arenas for their shareholder meetings. Like people are disciples of the Birkshar philosophy. when they take a trade, when they do something, I mean, there's hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people globally that follow every single thing that Birkshshire does and they take them very seriously when they initiate a position. The type of validation that Google just got, I mean, Sundar has got to be Sundar's got to be pretty happy right now. And by the way, you know, they're going to hold it for a long time. I mean, I don't think they're putting in four billion just for the hell of it. You would imagine they're going to hold this bad boy for a long time.

Amit: 1.7 29%. Don't believe the 243 average cost. You're not going to get the most accurate predictions from any of these websites. The quarter ended uh um what September 30th. Was Google above 243 before September 30th or even above 200? I think it was, but I doubt they bought all at once. September 30th. Yeah. Okay. So, Google got to 250 by September 18. So, they could have bought between July and September. I mean, unless they bought literally at the end of September, then they probably have an average closer to like 190 to 200. But, we'll find out over time.

Amit: The market value next. Yeah, but the market value is just based on the current price. It's not based on the average that they have. And also, these websites, they they never have to disclose the average. So, these websites, you can't trust them. I mean, I've tried calculating the average from these websites before. They don't have that. They have the position and they have the number of shares. They can't actually give you the exact price. When Birkshshire's 8K comes out and all that stuff, then you get a much better understanding of like the actual price they paid.

Amit: 280 on the goo. 17.8 million shares on Mr. Google. All right, Burkshar's in. Let me see if there's any else anything else coming out. Oh, Carl Icon. Oh, here's the here's the full thing from Buffett. Here's the full thing from Buffett. 17.8 million shares is what you have on the Googles. Uh they added 15% to Chub. They added 4% to Sirius. I still don't know why they have Sirius XM, but they keep adding to that. They sold 6% of Bank of America, sold 14% of Apple, Domino's 13%. They added 2% to Lamar Advertising and then 0.03% to LAR. That's a home builder.

Amit: [clears throat] Goodness, bro. 18 million shares of Google. I don't know what the new leadership's philosophy is going to be over the next 10 years. But Greg Ael, how old is Greg Ael? Greg Ael age, he is uh 63. I mean, Buffett's what, 95? If Greg's going to do this for the next 25 years, I mean, do you think he's buying five billion of Google to sell it tomorrow. I mean, they're probably thinking that there is something they've got to seriously commit to here over the long term.

Amit: UNH, Buffett did not sell or buy 5 million shares of UNH. 5 million shares of UNH. They did not sell or buy. They kept it. Amazon, they kept it as well. Amazon was a while ago. I I am going to be very interested to hear how they justify buying Google. I mean, they're going to have to speak to the implications of technology and probably AI. I would imagine they're going to have to talk about why AI matters for the economy and why Google is their bet to play it.

Amit: Wow. Congrats to everyone who's heavy in Google this year. You got some deep deep validation right now by one of the greatest investment firms of all time saying that they are taking a stake in Google. I mean, the stock would be up a lot more if I think the macro wasn't as wonky right now. Also, I mean, Buffett's been holding on to a lot of cash. So, you're telling me the first time where they decide to deploy their 350 billion of cash is a tech company, and that's bearish.

Amit: Like, they they don't buy tech companies. They're they're sitting on more treasuries than the entire Federal Reserve. They say, "Hey, we want to take a five billion stake." And they pick a tech company. They don't pick Craft Hind. They don't pick a bank. They pick a tech company. doesn't feel bearish for tech and you can't even say Google's expensive like you really can't.

Amit: So it's quite incredible that they're taking this position and it is validating a lot. I mean if if Buffett is saying or Birkshar is saying we like Google that means they like AI they like the multiple that a company like Google is getting on AI which means why should the market be doubting the entire nature of AI. You could be doubting individual names in it but doubting the entire concept is a bit weird.

Amit: Now, here was the headline I was going to talk about before the Google news. Oracle credit risk is getting repriced. 5-year credit default swap spreads. We looked at the chart yesterday on Oracle. It jumped 13.5 basis points to about 102 bips. The biggest move since 2021 as investors hedge tens of billions in AI related debt for data centers. Morgan Stanley is now seeing the net debt for data center buildout by fiscal year 2028 to 290 billion versus 100 billion.

Amit: 290 billion would still be small relative to the the many trillions that have been pledged to be invested in data centers, but it is higher, which is why you've got people purchasing these credit default swaps to hedge against that debt going the wrong way. So that's what you got on Oracle. And again, I think that's why it was creating a lot of just like uh fear for the broader equity markets towards the end of the day as those credit default swaps started spiking around AI and data centers.

Amit: Bill Aman just came out. Let's see. Bill Aman, by the way, bought Google at 90 bucks. So, he's been in Googs for a while. Um, okay. Let's see. Bill Aman sold a little bit of Uber, sold a little bit of Brookfield, kept Google. No, sold 10% of Google Class C, kept Google Class A. And this is what I mean, guys. You guys are saying his average is 243. Look at the reported price on Bill Aman. It says 243. That doesn't make any sense. Bill Aman bought Google since $90. So, you really can't trust these reported prices to estimate their average. Like Bill Aman stake is not $243. Like he he he did not buy at all in Q2. So there's no way it's possible for it to be 243.

Amit: Altimter's out. Do we have it? All right, let me see. Altimeter. Okay, here we go. Let's pull it up. This is Brad Gersonner. Let's start off with new positions. Um, Google, [laughter] [gasps] 313,000 shares of Google, 1.6 6 million shares of Jimmy which is a crypto company 969,000 shares of Baba 744,000 shares of Broadcom 258,000 of Synopsis Pinu Duo 1.3 million and then I don't know what NTSK is and PTRN is but he bought a couple hundred thousand shares of those guys as well. Wow. Google, Broadcom, Baba and Pin Duo Duo,

Amit: Aman, Gersner and Buffett all in Google closed out he sold Coreweave 650,000 shares IoT 2.9 million shares data dog 881,000 uh added to he added to Amazon 72,000 shares added to ARM 164,000 added to Microsoft 103 3,000 added to TSM 200 1,000 no change or reduced let's do reduced reduced they sold 650,000 shares of Hood which is reasonable they bought it at 30 bucks uh they sold 11,000 shares of Meta sold 8,000 shares of Mardo Libre sold 4 million shares of Confluent sold 1.4 million shares of coupon sold 891,000 shares of Instacart sold 600,000 shares of Nvidia still have 7.6 6 million left, but they did trim.

Amit: Selling Hood normal. I mean, they bought it at 40. It's up triple. They were probably going to take some profits. Meta. Gersonner has been in Meta for a long time. Still has 1.8 million shares. So, it's not like it's not a large position. Nvidia also not that big of a deal. They have $1.4 billion of Nvidia. Decent position for them. Uber and Snowflake a bit more aggressive on the sales. Zillow a bit more aggressive as well. And then Instacart and Confluent. Confluent the big one about 4.2 million down.

Amit: So the big story is everyone is is in love with the Googs. Dude, Sundar has got to be feeling like the man right now. Like Sundar has got to be feeling like the man is googs moving on this even more. Googs it it's it's only flat because it's been a crappy day or a crappy week. If this was like four weeks ago and this news came out, you could argue Google would be above 300 by now. Dude, this is big freaking news.

Amit: Uh code management we have there 13F um top by Google. Hold on. Let me pull this up. Is the top by Google? Let me see. Holdings. Uh, new CO2 is a relatively large firm. Wow. They added 2 million shares of Google. Oh my goodness, dude. 2.091 million shares of the Googs. They added Figma. They added Applied Materials, CLA, Snowflake, and Synopsis. Dude, why does everyone like Synopsis? I keep seeing this name pop up.

Amit: Let's see what they closed out. Uh, they sold all their Lily. They sold all their Yum. That's a Chinese food brand. PM, GRNC, and then LX. What about added to? They added to Marll. They added to Weeble. They added to Trade Desk. They added to Spotify. They added to Oracle. added to Meta, Microsoft, Baba, they added 1.1 million. Uh they added to iBit, they added to Nphase, Door Dash, Carvana, Broadcom, Applovin, and then they continue to add to Google. That was the other Google class C. So they have both versions now.

Amit: Uh and then reduced, they sold 307,000 shares of Tesla. They sold 121,000 shares of GE Veranova. They sold 1.6 million of Nvidia. sold 1.1 million of new bank. Uh Tanner, I'm sending you the link on Twitter. Um and then they they sold 1.5 million shares of KKR. This is quite incredible, dude. This really is quite incredible. I mean, and again, buying Google is heavy validation for just this broader AI trade, which matters if you're in a lot of the other AI names, even if you're not in Google.

Tanner: >> Brad Gersonner, Warren Buffett, and Kotu management hold the same position. [laughter] You [snorts] got growth and value all saying Sundar is doing the right thing. How's this possible? Did Did you at all expect Buffett to Did you even think they would they would do this?

Amit: >> No. >> No, I wasn't thinking about it. I mean, it didn't you know, the UNH play made a lot of sense, but this is this is quite interesting.

Tanner: >> So do you think this is a Buffett decision or you think it's a paradigm shift that Greg Ael is initiating in the firm?

Amit: No, I don't know if it's a a Buffett decision, but um I do just think that I I've always thought this search is probably one of the best business models there's ever been. Um the the the margins are incredible and the fact that they're not losing uh market share there and they're getting the same take rate from AI overviews and AI mode. It probably just confirms to them that they're sticking around and this business is going to last another 20 years.

Tanner: >> Dude, it's a heavy position, too. four million shares is not a not a a joke. Like

Amit: >> I dude I think that this is like like you said uh this is kind of good for the entire market. I think this is sort of the seal of approval from Buffett to say hey this capex spend is fine. You would think that they would be on the complete other side of this trade. Where's the ROI on all of this spend? You know that they would be the most uh like like they would question this type of spend. But they're not.

Tanner: >> I don't know, man. It is. Okay. So, when Buffett bought Apple, and I know you know the history of this, you know, they thought of Apple as a consumer hardware. They never really called it a a tech company. They struggled to ever say it's a tech company. They said it's consumer hardware. Do you think there's some philosophy they're using on Google that is not necessarily intrinsically rooted in technology, but there's a bigger picture they're seeing to the investment?

Amit: >> I wonder for how long cuz um Bergkshire Hathway is in in a pretty unique situation where there's only a handful of companies that they can even invest in that's going to make a sizable change in their portfolio."

Tanner: >> Yes. So, how long, how many quarters, how many years have they had their eyes on Google and not pulled the trigger and something that happened within the last 3 months had changed their mind to say and and honestly, it could be that the keys going over to Greg and Greg says, "Hey, you know what? I've I've wanted this name for the last 5 years." So, but it does uh it is interesting the timing of this name going into the portfolio.

Steve: >> Valuation's about to get much stupider. Higher. Valuation's about to get stupider. why can't we go to 250,300?

Amit: >> I mean, look, it was at 220 a couple weeks ago. So, it's not like

Steve: >> Yeah. I think the big thing here is it's not and you can say what you want about Trum. You can think that his spaxs were a scam. You can not like his investment style, but

Steve: The bottom line is Chamath has his ear to the ground. He knows more than most people about companies that are private. He knows more than most people about tech companies. He helped build in the early stages Facebook. He's been involved in so many tech companies over the past two decades that when he says Palanteer does not have any competitors, you have to take that very seriously.

Amit: >> Yeah. I mean, look, I believed Karp a couple years ago when he said we don't have competitors. It's nice to see Chamat say that, but like when he says there's a trillion versions of MongoDB, I'm not a big tech guy and even I know that and I don't even engage with those softwares every day in some corporate setting, but even I know from the basic research I've done, there's a lot of different versions of these different companies, whereas Palanteer really is a one of one.

Steve: Do you think food service workers will be here in 15 years from now?

Amit: >> No.

Steve: >> Okay. Do you think waiters and waitresses will be here in 15 years from now?

Amit: >> Yes, I think fine dining and that that like like Yes. I think I think wait I don't think that's

Steve: >> Think about Optimus and where it is now where it will be in 15 years. You're telling me 15 generations later, we're not going to have robots doing the waiting.

Amit: >> Oh, that's a good point.

Steve: >> Okay. Dishwashing at a restaurant. Robotics.

Amit: >> Yes. Yeah. Okay. Uh, call centers picking up the phone, AI agents,

Steve: >> 100%.

Amit: >> Okay. Uber drivers, driving, right?

Steve: >> Yep.

Amit: >> Trucking industry.

Steve: >> I've always think trucking is going to be harder because it's on the highways and but eventually the AI will be good enough to

Amit: >> 15 years. I'm not talking about tomorrow.

Steve: >> I think that one might be like 25 years, but maybe. Okay.

Amit: >> Stocking shelves at a grocery store. Yeah, that's gone.

Steve: >> Stocking warehouses,

Amit: >> that's gone.

Steve: >> Okay. Pulling stock out of warehouses and shipping.

Amit: >> No, you don't I don't think you're going to need people for that.

Steve: >> So there, think about how many industries that impacts just those very several things that we rallied off. And then if we really want to go down the road, what about accounts? In 15 years, do you think you're just going to be able to scan all your documents and then have them done?

Amit: >> So, so then the question is, okay, so if the Fed's not going to cut and we have more layoffs, you're saying 10% correction, 5 to 10% end of this year, then let's paint the bearish case. Fed doesn't cut 5% correction. We have layoffs and then a shutdown again on January 30th.

Steve: >> How about this? Who cares if there's a shutdown or not? I mean, obviously, yes, we want people to get paid. I don't think there's going to be a shutdown. The bigger thing is we go into a recession and unemployment continues to go up. I'm more worried about that because you can set the stage for a recession in Q2, Q3 because we could be in one right now and not realize it. I mean, literally, the White House said Q4's GDP could be cut by 2%. Because the shutdown,

Amit: >> we could be in a recession or the start of a recession right now. The stock market is not an indicator of the economy. I don't care what anybody says.

Steve: >> Yeah. And I mean, did you even did you look at the markets today or were you kind of busy?

Amit: >> No, I have no idea what happened.

Steve: >> Well, so we ended slightly green, but it was a bloodbath in the pre-markets.

Amit: >> Okay. And within about 30 minutes, it reversed. But my goodness, in the pre-markets, if you woke up and checked your portfoly bounce, to be honest, there was no headline. I think the markets were just like, we can't go that much lower off no reason. But it doesn't really make me that confident for next week unless we get some clarity around the tariff and interest rate issue. Look, we truly need rates to come down and we need to have a bigger conversation and stop bickering and complaining about where we go with unemployment. We have to get unemployment lower.

Steve: >> Yeah.

Amit: >> Yeah. This rate cut thing really changes stuff, dude. The 7,000 was price for a rate cut.