用AI赚了150亿美元
Speaker A: 去年,我用AI赚了150亿美元。
Original English
Speaker A: I used AI to make 15 billion dollars last year.
Speaker B: 真的吗?
Original English
Speaker B: You did?
Speaker A: 是的,因为AI给了我们一个解决方案,解决了一个世界历史上从未有人遇到过的问题。所以我的建议是:不要试图比机器人更努力地工作。你要做的是让AI去做一些以前从未做过的事情。如果你想创造这些令人难以置信的成功,你要找到那个神奇的机会。我之所以知道这一点,是因为我是一名科技企业家,我们是世界上最大的比特币买家。
Original English
Speaker A: I did because the AI gave us a solution to the problem that no one had ever encountered before in the history of the world. And so my advice is don't try to outwork the robots. What you want to do is ask the AI to do something that's never been done before. And if you want to create these incredible success things, you want to locate the magic opportunity. I know this because I'm a technology entrepreneur and we're the biggest buyer of Bitcoin in the world.
Speaker A: 那么,我的使命是什么?我在传播数字赋能的福音。比特币是数字货币,它将成为最好的长期资本资产。你实际上可以拥有某样东西,而且比你更强大的人也无法把它从你手中夺走。
Original English
Speaker A: So, what is my mission? I'm preaching the gospel of digital empowerment and Bitcoin is digital money and it's going to be the best long-term capital asset and you can actually own something and someone more powerful than you can't take it away from you.
Speaker B: 你说他们不能从你手里夺走比特币,是什么意思?
Original English
Speaker B: What you mean they can't take Bitcoin from you?
Speaker A: 你看,这是一叠现金。你带着它走过机场,他们问你有没有现金,然后就直接没收了。所以实物现金是个问题。那怎么办呢?你把它存进银行。然后银行来决定你是否能保留它,以及你是否能取回它。但我可以把价值一百万美元的比特币从这里转移到任何地方,伦敦也好,网络空间的任何角落也好,只需要几秒钟。所以,世界上最不该存的东西就是钱。
Original English
Speaker A: So, this is a stack of currency. You walk through an airport on this, they ask you if you have cash, they just take it. So cash in a physical form is a problem. So what do you do? You put it in a bank. So the bank then decides whether you get to keep it and whether you get it back. But I could move a million dollars of Bitcoin from here to anywhere to London to anywhere in cyberspace in a few seconds. So the last thing in the world you want to save is money.
Speaker B: 那这个呢?为什么不把我的钱都投到黄金里?
Original English
Speaker B: So what about this? Why not just put all of my money into gold?
Speaker A: 嗯,黄金每年涨12%,但比特币每年涨33%。
Original English
Speaker A: Well, gold is up 12% a year, but Bitcoin is up 33.
Speaker B: 那标普500指数呢?
Original English
Speaker B: What about the S&P 500?
Speaker A: 你从BTC获得的回报将是标普指数的两倍。
Original English
Speaker A: You're going to get double the performance from BTC that you would get from like the S&P index.
Speaker B: 那我应该买房子吗?
Original English
Speaker B: So, should I buy a house?
Speaker A: 我来告诉你为什么你不应该买房子。
Original English
Speaker A: I will tell you why you shouldn't buy a house.
Speaker B: 那你最近卖了一些比特币,而之前你告诉很多人说,如果必须的话卖掉一个肾,但一定要留着比特币。那你为什么卖比特币而不是卖肾呢?
Original English
Speaker B: And then you sold a bit of Bitcoin recently after telling a lot of people sell a kidney if you must but keep the Bitcoin. So, why did you sell the Bitcoin instead of your kidney?
订阅请求与节目介绍
Speaker B: 因为,Michael,除了买入比特币之外,在你看来,什么是积累财富的好策略?然后你还有10条给年轻人为生活和事业打下坚实基础的规则。我们一个一个来看。不过首先,这对我来说非常有趣。我的团队给了我这份报告,告诉我你们当中有多少人观看了这个节目并订阅了。根据这份报告,你们中的一些人告诉我们,你们会随意取消订阅这个频道。所以,我想请大家帮个忙:如果你是这个节目的常客,并且喜欢我们在这里做的事情,请你现在检查一下是否已经点击了订阅按钮。我们在订阅人数上正接近一个非常重要的里程碑。所以,如果有一件简单又免费的事情你可以做来帮助我们,帮助我的团队,帮助这里的每个人,让这个节目保持免费,让它年复一年、周复一周地不断进步,那就是点击订阅按钮,并再次确认你已经点击了。这是我对你唯一的请求,我们成交吗?如果你做到了,我会告诉你我会做什么。我会确保每一周、每一个月,我们都越来越努力地为你带来你想听到的嘉宾和对话。从D of Co节目一开始,我就一直信守这个承诺,我不会让你失望的。请帮助我们。非常感谢。让我们开始今天的节目吧。
Original English
Speaker B: Because, Michael, beyond just buying Bitcoin, what is a good strategy to build and become wealthy in your view? And then you have 10 rules for young adults building a strong foundation for their life and career. So, let's go through these. So, first this is super interesting to me. My team given me this report to show me how many of you that watch this show subscribe. And some of you have told us according to this that you are unsubscribe from the channel randomly. So, favor to ask all of you, please could you check right now if you've hit the subscribe button if you are a regular viewer of the show and you like what we do here. We're approaching quite a significant landmark on this show in terms of a subscriber number. So, if there was one simple free thing that you could do to help us, my team, everyone here, to keep this show free, to keep it improving year over year and week over week, it is just to hit that subscribe button and to double check if you've hit it. Only thing I'll ever ask of you, do we have a deal? If you do it, I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll make sure every single week, every single month, we fight harder and harder and harder and harder to bring you the guests and conversations that you want to hear. I've stayed true to that promise since the very beginning of the D of Co, and I will not let you down. Please help us. Really appreciate it. Let's get on with the show.
Michael的背景与使命
Speaker B: Michael,由于你作为科技企业家的成功,根据我的计算,你已经是亿万富翁了,而且你目前非常专注于数字货币,特别是比特币。除此之外,关于你所建立和取得的成就,我们还需要了解些什么?
Original English
Speaker B: Michael, because of your success as a technology entrepreneur, you are a multi-billionaire from my math and you're heavily focused on digital currencies at the moment, specifically Bitcoin. What else do we need to know about you in terms of what you've built and accomplished outside of that?
Speaker A: 我一直想做出技术上的贡献。所以,早期的业务是商业智能。也就是如何从大量原始数据源中提取智能信息,这就是Micro Strategy所做的。我们创建了一家全球性的商业智能公司。我想在2020年,当疫情封锁发生、世界天翻地覆的时候,那是我发现了自己最伟大的想法的时候。而且这甚至不是我的想法,对吧,这是中本聪的想法。但我在2020年发现了比特币。如今公司市值600亿美元,但我们最高达到过1250亿美元。所以自从我们发现比特币以来,公司规模增长了大约100到200倍。
Original English
Speaker A: I always wanted to make a technical contribution. So, the early business was business intelligence. So how do you extract intelligence from large raw data sources and that was what Micro Strategy did. We created a global business intelligence company and I think in 2020 when the co lockdowns took place and the world turned upside down that was when I discovered my greatest idea and it wasn't even my idea right it it was Satoshi's idea but I I discovered Bitcoin in 2020 and the company today is $60 billion but we peaked about 125 billion so we got somewhere between 100 and 200 times bigger since we discovered Bitcoin.
Speaker B: 那当你现在和公众交谈时,比如做这样的播客,你想传达的核心信息是什么?
Original English
Speaker B: And when you speak to the general public now when you do podcasts like this, what is the essence of the message that you're aiming to communicate to them?
Speaker A: 比特币就是数字赋能,数字资本。我们正在经历资产的数字化转型,这和数字智能的转型一样深刻。比特币真正深刻的突破在于这个想法:你可以把经济能量转化为数字形式,并把它紧密地绑定到个人、家庭、公司,甚至国家身上。我们可以讨论我们多么讨厌国家,但你知道,世界的历史就是所有弱国被大国碾压的历史。所以,如果你关心的是赋能、公平和公正,为了小公司、小家庭、小人物、小国家、弱者,你怎么做到呢?嗯,你基本上就是把钱加密,放到网络空间里,用私钥保护它。就像现在你实际上可以拥有某样东西,而且比你更强大的人也无法把它从你手中夺走。
Original English
Speaker A: Bitcoin is digital empowerment, digital capital. We're living through the digital transformation of assets and this is just as profound transformation as digital intelligence. The real profound breakthrough of Bitcoin is this idea that you can take economic energy, convert it to digital form and tightly bind it to the person, the family, the company, but the country. We can talk about how we all hate countries, but you know, the history of the world is all the weak countries getting smashed by all the big countries. So if what you're interested in is empowerment and fairness and equity for the small company, the small family, the small person, the small country, the weak. How do you do it? Well, you basically encrypt the money, put it in cyberspace, protect it with a private key. It's like now you can actually own something and someone more powerful than you can't take it away from you.
法币与比特币的本质区别
Speaker B: 你面前有两种钱。有美元纸币,然后我桌上还有几枚比特币。你说他们不能从你手里夺走比特币,是什么意思?
Original English
Speaker B: There's two types of money there in front of you. There's dollar bills and then I've got a couple of Bitcoin on the table. What you mean they can't take Bitcoin from you?
Speaker A: 好的。你看,这是一叠现金。你带着它走过机场。他们问你有现金吗。如果有,他们就直接没收了。实物形式的现金是个问题。那怎么办呢?你把它存进银行。嗯,银行是一个交易对手方。所以银行来决定你是否能保留它,以及你是否能取回它。你去银行,要求取回它。他们可能会问你为什么要取回它。如果你要取回那么多,他们会向财政部提交一份表格。你知道,如果你太快要求取回太多钱,对吧?就会有人来敲你的门。所以,这种法币的挑战在于,你持有它是出于国家的恩惠,而且不仅仅是你的国家,地球上每个国家都有权决定你是否能花这笔钱——这很有意思。而且如果你真的想把钱转给另一个国家的人,你需要你的银行、另一家银行、他们国家的中央银行、代理银行的许可,可能得有七家不同的银行来决定这笔钱能否从这里到那里。所以,这是需要许可的钱,你知道,由国家管理的。而有了比特币,我可以拿一百万美元。我实际上可以把它加密到一个实体硬币的芯片里,就是Casascius币,那就是一百万美元。我把它滑过去,它实际上就是一种不记名资产,你知道,这是它的一个表现形式。但你也可以把它变成信息形式。我可以把它转移给你,只需要以私钥的形式,写在一张纸上交给你。
Original English
Speaker A: Okay. So, this is a stack of currency. You walk through an airport on this. They ask you if you have cash. If you do, they just take it. Cash in a physical form is a problem. So what do you do? You put it in a bank. Well, a bank is a counterparty. So the bank then decides whether you get to keep it and whether you get it back. You go to the bank and you ask for it back. They might ask you why you ask for it back. If you ask for that much back, they file a form with the Treasury Department. You know, if you ask for too much money back too soon, right? Someone comes knocking on your door. So the challenge with this is fiat currency and you hold this at the pleasure of the nation state and by not just your nation state it's like every country on earth gets to decide whether you get to spend this stuff right- which is interesting and if you want to actually transfer money to someone in another country you need the permission of your bank another bank the central bank of their country the correspondent bank there might be seven different banks that have to decide whether the money gets from here to there. So, this is permissioned money, you know, that's managed by the state. And with Bitcoin, I can take a million dollars. I can actually encrypt it in a chip in a physical coin, the Casascius coin, and that's a million dollars. I slide it across and it's literally a bearer asset, you know, and so that's one manifestation of it. But you could also put it into information form. I could transfer this to you just in the form of a private key that I wrote on a piece of paper that I gave to you.
Speaker B: 你可以给我一串字母。
Original English
Speaker B: A series of letters you could give me.
Speaker A: 是的。或者我可以给你发一条消息。我可以发一条短信,比如:“那么,祝你好运,如果你想把一百万美元的黄金从这里运到伦敦,而人们不想让你运的话。但我可以在几秒钟内把一百万美元的比特币从这里转移到任何地方。”我的想法是,我不想信任苹果、谷歌、摩根银行、中央银行或政府,对吧?所以在极端情况下,你知道,两个人可以在非洲见面,我可以拿一些比特币换你的卡车,我不需要七家银行、16个政府和32个其他官僚的许可就能买那辆卡车。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. Or I could send you a message. I could send a text message like, "So, good luck getting a million dollars of gold from here to London if people don't want you to move it. But I could move a million dollars of Bitcoin from here to anywhere in a few seconds." The idea was I don't want to trust Apple or Google or Morgan Bank or a central bank or a government, right? And so in the extreme case, you know, two people can meet in Africa and I can trade you some Bitcoin for your truck and I don't need the permission of seven banks and 16 governments and 32 other bureaucrats in order to buy that truck.
Speaker B: 大多数人,普通人,对于存在银行里的钱的性质,有什么不了解的?特别是关于它的贬值或通货膨胀?因为大多数人认为,如果他们有,比如说,一万美元存在银行里,一直放着,也许每年还能拿到4%的利息,他们就觉得没问题了。
Original English
Speaker B: What is it that most people, the average person doesn't understand about the nature of money as it's sat in their bank as it relates to the debasement of it or the sort of inflation of it? Because most people think if they've got, you know, $10,000 in their bank and they keep it there and maybe getting interest on it at 4% a year, they're going to be good.
Speaker A: 那么,这大概是1万美元。嗯,迈阿密海滩水边的一英亩土地,大约一百年前值1万美元。
Original English
Speaker A: So, this is about $10,000, I guess. Um, one acre of land in Miami Beach on the water cost $10,000 about a hundred years ago.
货币贬值与资本资产的选择
主讲人:我之所以知道这一点,是因为我在水边有一栋房子,我有买卖合同,当时大约是两英亩地,价格是两万美元。整栋房子花了十万美元,其中土地大约值两万美元。而今天,同样在水边的这一英亩地,可能要一千万美元,甚至两千万美元。所以,你知道这里发生了什么,对吧?同样是美元,算下来价格涨了一千倍。当地价从一万美元涨到一千万美元,那就意味着货币——美元——在过去一百年里,每年大约损失了7%的经济价值。如果你每年损失7%,你知道,那就会减半,对吧?十倍,对吧?
Original English
Speaker: I know this because I have a house on the water and I have the deed of sale and it was about on two acres and it was $20,000. The entire house cost $100,000 and uh it's about $20,000 worth of land. Today. Uh, one acre of land on this the same acre on the water $10 million maybe $20 million. So, you know what happened here, right? It's the same dollar. It works out to be a 1000x increase in price. So when land goes from $10,000 to $10 million, that means that the currency, the dollar, the money, lost about 7% of its economic value every year for 100 years running. If you lose 7% a year, you know, then you get cut in half, right? 10 times, right?
主讲人:那么,大多数人对金钱不了解的是什么?他们没有意识到的是,最好的货币——货币作为交换媒介、记账单位和价值储存手段——美元,在20世纪和21世纪,每年损失7%的价值,持续了一百年。这是它最好的表现了。其他人可没那么好。如果你去大多数其他国家,它们的货币每年损失14%的价值。所以它们大约在30年内就会崩溃。所以你所面临的情况是,如果你把财富储存在货币里,储存在社会的钱里,问题其实只是:你是在十年内损失大部分钱——比如非洲的大多数货币,你甚至无法持有财富超过十年,也许五年——还是你在三十年内损失全部的钱——恶性通货膨胀发生在巴西、阿根廷,你知道,还有墨西哥。大多数地方都是这样,这就是现状。平均的法币,你知道,我想大约在29年内崩溃。然后最好的情况是,如果你恰好是世界上最伟大国家的公民,并且你赢得了所有战争,你只是会在——你知道,半衰期是35年——你会在大约一百年的过程中损失你的钱。
Original English
Speaker: So what do most people not know about about money? What they don't realize is that the best currency money being a medium exchange unit account store of value, the dollar, the best in the 20th century and the 21st century, the US dollar lost 7% of its value every year going for 100 years. That's the best it's ever going to get. It's not that good for everybody else. If you go to most other countries, they lose 14% of their value. And so they collapse in about 30 years. So what you have is a situation where if you store your wealth in currency in in the money of the society the question really is just are you going to lose most of your money within 10 years that's the weak currencies in Africa for example most currencies in Africa you couldn't hold you your wealth even for 10 years maybe 5 years or are you going to lose all your money in 30 years hyperinflation happened in Brazil happened in Argentina you know that's Mexico. That's most places and that's the status quo. The average fiat currency, you know, collapses in about 29 years, I think. And then the best is if you happen to be a citizen of the greatest nation in the world and you win all the wars, you're just going to lose all your money in, you know, half life is 35 years, you're going to lose your money over the course of a hundred years.
买房是否是好的财富策略
提问者:那么,我应该买房子吗?
Original English
Interviewer: So, should I buy a house?
主讲人:那么,你就到了下一个有趣的点:1926年在迈阿密海滩价值10万美元的房子,今天会值……那栋房子值5000万到1亿美元。所以,房子更好,对吧?事实上,如果你想保值财富,你必须获得稀缺的、理想的房产。所以你的选择是:我买房地产吗?我买住宅房地产吗?我买商业房地产吗?我买一家私营公司吗?我买一家上市公司比如股票吗?我买收藏品吗?那么,让我告诉你为什么你不应该买房子。因为在佛罗里达,房产税是2%,这意味着如果你买房子,你每年要支付价值的2%。2%,你知道,意味着每36年,你实际上支付了房子的成本作为税交给政府。这不是一个很好的价值储存手段,因为你承担了巨大的税收负担,而且你还要承担维护负担。但话虽如此,它仍然比把钱存在银行或放在保险箱里要好。你知道,商业房地产看起来好一点,对吧?因为对于商业房地产,你可以用租金来抵消税收、保险和维护成本。所以,商业房地产大多数时候真正的情况是,你买一百万美元的商业房地产,你有一堆费用,你收租金,租金抵消了维护成本。你实际上并不从租金中赚钱,但底层的一百万美元每年升值7%。所以,如果你能覆盖维护费用,你实际上可以通过商业房地产积累财富。
Original English
Speaker: So, you get to the next interesting point, which is that $100,000 in 19 uh 26 in Miami Beach today would be worth $100,000. That house $50 to $100 million. So, the house is better, right? In fact, if you're trying to preserve your wealth, you have to acquire scarce desirable property. So, your choice is, do I buy real estate? Do I residential real estate? Do I buy commercial real estate? Do I buy a private company? Do I buy a public company like stocks? Do I buy collectibles? So, let me tell you why you shouldn't buy a house. Because uh there's a 2% property tax on houses in in Florida, which means that if you buy a house, you pay 2% of the value every year. 2%, you know, means that every 36 years, you actually pay the cost of the house in tax to the government. not a very good store of value because uh you're taking on a massive tax load and you're taking on a maintenance load. But having said it, it's still a better deal than just holding cash in a bank or holding cash in a safe. You know, commercial real estate looks a bit better, right? Because with commercial real estate, you can offset the tax, the insurance, and the maintenance cost with rents. So, what really works out with commercial real estate most of the time is you buy a million dollars commercial real estate, you have a bunch of fees, you charge rent, the rent offsets the maintenance cost. You don't really make any money on the rent, but the underlying million dollars appreciates 7% a year every year. And so, you actually can build wealth with commercial real estate if you can just cover the maintenance expenses.
主讲人:大多数人被告知,当他们离开大学进入职场时,积累财富的方式是买房子。所以大多数人——这就是大多数人所做的。他们找一份工作,朝九晚五,用赚来的钱去申请抵押贷款,买房子,然后搬进去。这就是我们所有人被隐含告知的。在你看来,这是积累财富、变得富有的好策略吗?
Original English
Speaker: Most people are are told that the way to build wealth when they leave university and they get into the working world is to buy a house. So most people that's what most people do. They they get a job, a 9 to5, they take the money they get from that, they go and get a mortgage, they buy a house, and they move in. That's kind of what we're all told implicitly. Is that a good strategy to build and become wealthy? In your view,
主讲人:唯一能让它成为好策略的情况是,你买房的地方房产税是可控的,那么是的,你可以创造一些财富。但如果反过来,你拿了7%的抵押贷款,还要承担巨额的税收和巨额的保险费用,那么同样的投资,你知道,就会朝另一个方向发展,它会把你压垮。所以,一般来说,更好的主意是商业房地产——如果你真的有商业头脑进入商业房地产行业的话——因为你可以把所有费用转嫁给你的租户。这些事情都很难,对吧?房地产行业很难。创办自己的公司很难。投资其他公司很难。传统的方式,安全的方式是:我把所有钱放进货币市场基金,获得3%的收益,然后税后我剩下1.5%。而货币每年损失7%的价值,你一生中每年都在损失5%或6%的财富。所以这就是为什么比特币如此有吸引力。这就是为什么相信比特币的人对它充满热情,因为普通人不必成为房地产专家。他们不必成为税务专家。他们不必有能力开自己的餐厅、酒吧或面包店。你不必成为选股专家。为什么普通人不能只是把钱拿出来,投入一种每年升值15%的资产,然后不用去担心它呢?
Original English
Speaker: The only way that it's a good strategy is you're buying the house in a jurisdiction where the property taxes are manageable, then yeah, you can you can generate some wealth. But if I flip that and you end up taking a 7% mortgage and you get massive tax and massive insurance expenses, then that same investment, you know, works out the other way and it it crushes you to death. So, a better idea generally is commercial real estate if you're if you actually have the, you know, the business acumen to to uh get in the commercial real estate business because you can pass all the expenses through to your tenants. These things are all hard, right? Real estate business is hard. Starting your own company is hard. Investing in other companies is hard. The conventional thing, the safe thing is I just put all my money in a money market and I get paid 3% and then after tax I've got one and a half%. And the currency is losing 7% of its value a year and you're just losing five or 6% of your wealth every year for your life. So that's why Bitcoin is such a compelling thing. That's why people that believe in Bitcoin are passionate about it because the average person shouldn't have to be a real estate expert. They shouldn't have to be a tax expert. They shouldn't have to be capable of launching their own restaurant or bar or bakery. You shouldn't have to be a stock picker. Why shouldn't the typical person just be able to take their money, put it into an asset which appreciates in value 15% a year, and they don't have to worry about it?
标普500与黄金的对比
提问者:那标普500呢?他们可以直接把钱投入股市,对吧?
Original English
Interviewer: What about the S&P 500? They could just put it into the stock market, right?
主讲人:是的。约翰·博格尔真正的贡献和标普500的成功,在于这个理念:货币不是价值储存手段。房地产是流动性差的、可怕的、困难的、低效的、高维护的。那么,我能买到的流动性资本资产是什么?结果就是像SPY这样的东西。它就是以ETF形式存在的标普500。它在过去6年回报率是15%,在一百年的时间跨度里也许是10%左右。
Original English
Speaker: Yeah. John Bogle's real contribution and the success of uh the S&P 500 is this idea that currency is not a store of value. Real estate is illiquid and scary and difficult and inefficient and high maintenance. So what is the liquid capital asset that I can I can buy? And it turns out to be like SPY. It's just the S&P 500 in the form of an ETF. So that has returned 15% over the past 6 years over a 100 years maybe 10% something like that.
提问者:每年。
Original English
Interviewer: Every year.
主讲人:而且如果美元在稀缺理想资产方面每一百年损失7%的价值,而你获得10%,那么你因为接受投资股市的波动性而获得了2%或3%的额外回报。但这并不是一个坏主意,对吧?如果你想要传统的最佳保值方式,而不承担个股风险或单一房地产风险,我就买入标普指数然后等待。
Original English
Speaker: And if the US dollar is losing 7% of its value in scarce desirable terms over the course of a 100 years and you're getting 10% you're getting a 2 or 3% boost and return for accepting the volatility uh of being invested in the stock market but it's not a bad idea right it if you want the conventional best idea to preserve your wealth without taking on individual, you know, corporate risk and individual real estate risk. I just buy the S&P index and wait.
提问者:那这个呢?
Original English
Interviewer: What about this?
主讲人:这是黄金。
Original English
Speaker: This is gold.
提问者:是的。
Original English
Interviewer: Yep.
提问者:为什么不把我所有的钱都投入黄金呢?
Original English
Interviewer: Why not just put all of my money into gold?
主讲人:买黄金并不是一个糟糕的主意。黄金在过去六年里每年上涨12%。所以,标普上涨15%,黄金上涨12%,纳斯达克上涨18%,比特币上涨33%。好的。所以一般来说,如果你观察世界,问自己想把钱存在哪里,你想买资本资产,黄金是赢家,标普是赢家,多元化的科技股是赢家,比特币是赢家。现在你会对我说,那为什么是比特币?答案是,如果你生活在土耳其,如果你生活在阿根廷,如果你生活在巴西——在货币崩溃之前——或者墨西哥、委内瑞拉,或者非洲的任何国家,你得不到黄金,你得不到标普,你得不到QQQ,你无法购买美国多元化的房地产。我提到的那些选项是西方世界的传统资本资产。所以,最大的错误是:不要投资于非资本资产。不要把你全家所有的钱投在大豆上,你知道。不要买桶装原油。不要买棉花。不要投资于工厂、机器人或AI可以无限生产的东西。你要买的是机器人和AI以及大工厂无法以百万加仑的量产出的东西。那是什么?可能是一盎司黄金。可能是全球500家最理想公司的一股股票。可能是2100万枚比特币中的一枚。所有这些东西都是机器人不会无限创造的东西。那些是资本资产。选择哪种资本资产取决于你住在哪里以及你的心态是什么。如果你是——
Original English
Speaker: It's not an awful idea to buy gold. Gold is up um 12% a year for the past six years. So whereas the S&P is up 15, gold's up 12, the NASDAQ's up 18, Bitcoin is up 33. Okay. So generally if you look at the world and you say where do you want to save your money, you want to buy a capital asset, gold's a winner, S&P's a winner, diversified tech stocks are a winner, Bitcoin is a winner. Now you're going to say to me, well then, well, why Bitcoin? Well, the answer is if you're living in Turkey, if you're living in Argentina, if you're living in Brazil before the currency collapses or Mexico or Venezuela or any country in Africa, you don't get gold, you don't get the S&P, you don't get QQQ, you can't buy diversified real estate in the US. Those options I named are a western world conventional capital assets. So, the big mistake, don't invest in non-capital assets. Don't put all your family's money in soybeans, you know. Don't buy barrels of crude oil. Don't buy cotton. Don't invest in things that a factory or a robot or an AI can generate infinite of. You buy things that the robots and the AIs and the big factories cannot pump out by the million gallons. And so what is that? It is maybe an ounce of gold. It is a share in the 500 most desirable companies in the world. It is one out of 21 million Bitcoin. All of those things are things that the robots are not going to create infinite of. Those are capital assets. Which capital asset is a function of where you live and what your mindset is. If you're
生活在战区与机器人时代
主持人: 生活在战区的话,我的建议是比特币,因为你不用带着它过检查站,对吧?你知道,如果你需要过机场安检,你想要的是那种你能保留并随身带走的东西。你刚才谈到了那里的机器人。
Original English
Host: Living in a war zone, my advice is Bitcoin because you're not carrying this through a checkpoint, right? Like, you know, if you need to go through an airport, you want something that you get to keep and take with you. You talked about the robots there.
嘉宾: 是的。
Original English
Guest: Yeah.
主持人: 当我们说机器人,我想我们指的既是机器人技术的激增,也是将赋予它们非常非常聪明能力的人工智能。
Original English
Host: And uh when we say the robots, I think we mean both the the surge in robotics we're saying, but also artificial intelligence that's going to empower them to be very very intelligent.
嘉宾: 是的。
Original English
Guest: Yeah.
主持人: 这如何改变了你的论点和你对未来的看法?因为对我们所有人来说,人工智能正以我们所见的速度加速发展,这是一个深刻的意外。
Original English
Host: How has this changed your thesis and how you view the future? Because it's it's a profound surprise, I think, to all of us that artificial intelligence is accelerating at the rate we're seeing.
技术失败直到成功
嘉宾: 技术失败直到成功。我在麻省理工学院时,人们试图让语音识别工作。它就是不行。一千年来,人们想飞,但飞不起来。1902年,《纽约时报》宣称每位博学的科学家都知道你永远无法飞行。然后在1903年,我们飞起来了。2023年,你知道,人工智能开始工作了。你可以看到正在发生的事情。我们已经影响了智能的数字化转型,汽车将自动驾驶。很明显,任何需要大量人力的事情,无论是律师工作、写合同,还是写诗、写剧本或写书,都是如此。就像,你想要一本书?告诉AI你想要什么样的书。这是我的10条要求。你知道,我想要这样。我希望故事发生在伦敦。我想要这些主角。你能做成那样吗?加点暴力进去。你知道,伏尔泰之所以令人印象深刻,是因为他创作了这么多文学作品,而且当他创作时,这些都出自一个人的头脑,那相当了不起。而且,你知道,我想我们永远会钦佩那些最先做到的人,对吧?但是,你知道,AI会为我们思考。你知道,把AI放进机器人里。我们离那不远了,对吧?就像当我坐下来和我的语音助手说话时,无论是Chat还是Grok,她就像什么都知道,而且她越来越聪明,你知道,每个星期她都变得更聪明。那当它们进入机器人会怎样?就像,好吧,你几乎可以想象有十亿个机器人,也许我们每月付200美元租一个机器人,机器人几乎什么都能做。所以问题是,你想不想要一个能做所有事情的人,做饭、打扫、你知道,倒垃圾?你想要一辆自动驾驶汽车吗?你当然想。我们正处于这些完美产品的边缘,对吧?我们会到达那种地步,我们会说,你以前真的有一个会烧东西的烤箱,那太蠢了。是的,它太蠢了,不知道会把东西烧焦。嗯?为什么你不直接把智能放进电器里,对吧?在智能变得指数级便宜的时候,为什么你还会有一个不智能的电器呢?我们以前会出交通事故,对吧?就像那个大揭示,对吧?最大的反转是当人们意识到自动驾驶汽车比人开的车更安全,对吧?就像你以前会犯错。你知道,当然讽刺的是,现在当你给别人发消息时,如果你想证明那确实是你发的,你实际上得故意放些错误进去,对吧?就像如果你放了错误进去,我相信是你打的字。你知道,AI可以起草一份文件,就像它有英语博士学位和20年文字编辑经验一样。所以我们正达到这样一个点:缺乏效率只是懒惰,对吧?就像如果你写了不完美的东西,那是因为你懒,而不是因为你不够完美。我的意思是,AI能创造完美的文件。它们做完美的研究。机器人能做任何数量的工作。而且,我想埃隆提出了这一点:我们即将踏入一个富足的时代。
Original English
Guest: Technology fails until it succeeds. When I was at MIT, people were trying to make, you know, speech recognition work. It just didn't work. For a thousand years, people wanted to fly and it didn't work. And in 1902, the New York Times declared that every learned scientist knows that you'll never be able to fly. And then in 1903, we fly. In 2023, you know, the AI started working. You can see what's happening. We've affected the digital transformation of intelligence, cars are going to drive themselves. It's pretty clear that anything that takes massive human labor, you know, whether it's lawyering, writing a contract, or composing a poem or composing a script or composing a book. It's like, you want a book? Tell the AI what kind of book you want. Here's my 10. You know, I want this. I want it to be set in London. I want these protagonists. Can you make it like that? Put some more violence in it. You know, Voltater, right, was impressive because he created, you know, this much literature and and when he did it, it came out of the mind of one man and that was quite amazing. And, you know, I think we're always going to admire the people that did it first, right? But, you know, the AIS will think for us. you know, put the AI into the robot. We're not that far, right? Like when I when I sit and I talk to my voice assistant, whether it's Chad or whether it's Grock, and it's it's like she knows everything and she keeps getting smarter, you know, you know, every single week she gets smarter and it's like what happens when they go into a robot? It's like, well, you can you pretty much can imagine a billion robots and maybe we'll pay 200 bucks a month for a robot and the robot will just pretty much do everything. And so the question is, do you want someone to do everything to cook, to clean, you know, to take out the trash? Would you like a self-driving car? Of course you do. We're on the verge of these perfect products, right? that like we'll get to the point where we're like I I you used to actually have an oven that burned things like what what it was stupid. Yeah, it was too stupid to know it was going to burn the Huh? Why didn't you just put intelligence into the appliance, right? Why why would you ever have an unintelligent impliance right at this point when it gets exponentially cheaper? We used to get in traffic accidents, right? like like the big reveal, right? The big the big inversion is when people realize that the self-driving cars are safer than the person driven cars, right? It's like you used to make mistakes. You know, the irony of course is now when you send a message to someone, if you want to prove that it came from you, you have to actually put errors in it, right? It's like if you put errors in it, I believe you typed it. you know, the AI can draft a thing as though it had a PhD in English and it had 20 years experience as a copy editor. And so we're reaching this point where lack of of effectiveness is just laziness, right? Like if you wrote something which wasn't perfect, it's because you're lazy, not because you're not perfect. I mean, the AI create perfect documents. They do perfect research. the robots will do any amount of work. And I I think Elon makes this point which is we're about to trip over an age of abundance.
埃隆·马斯克关于富足时代的观点
主持人: 你相信那是真的吗?那对比特币意味着什么?因为我看到埃隆在这里说的一些关于富足时代的话,他说在一个任何人都能拥有一切的未来,你不再需要金钱作为劳动力分配的数据库。如果人工智能和机器人技术足够强大,能满足所有人类需求,那么金钱的相关性就会迅速下降。我不确定我们还会不会有它。如果你被困在荒岛上,带着一万亿美元,那毫无意义,因为没有劳动力可以分配。在良性的情景下,我们将拥有普遍高收入,而不仅仅是普遍基本收入,意思是任何人都能拥有他们想要的任何产品或服务。通过联邦政府发放支票的普遍高收入是应对人工智能和机器人技术造成的失业的最佳方式,因为人工智能和机器人技术生产的商品和服务将远远超过货币供应量的增加。所以,不会有通货膨胀。工作将变成可选的。有点像运动或电子游戏。你可以去商店买蔬菜,也可以去后院种,因为你喜欢种。工作就会变成那样。人工智能和机器人技术将制造这么多东西,提供这么多服务,以至于它们实际上会没有事情可给人类做。金钱从根本上说是信息。未来的真正限制不会是财务上的。它们将是能源和质量。
Original English
Host: Do you believe that's true? What does that say about Bitcoin? Because I'm looking at some of the quotes here that Elon said about the age of abundance and he says in a future where anyone can have anything. You no longer need money as a database for labor allocation. If AI and robotics are big enough to satisfy all human needs, then the relevance of money declines rapidly. I'm not sure we will have it. If you are stranded on a desert island with a trillion dollars, it will be pointless because there is no labor to allocate. In a benign scenario, we will have universal high income, not just universal basic income, meaning anyone can have any products or any services that they want. Universal high income via checks issued by federal governments is the best way to deal with unemployment caused by AI/rootics because AI [snorts] and robotics will produce goods and services far in excess of the increase in money supply. So, there will be no inflation. Work will become optional. Kind of like playing sports or a video game. You can go to the store and buy vegetables or you can go and grow them in your backyard because you like growing them. That's what work will be like. AI and robotics are going to make so much stuff and provide so many services that they will actually run out of things to do for the humans. Money is fundamentally information. The true constraints of the future won't be financial. They'll be energy and mass.
嘉宾的回应:他一半是对的
嘉宾: 他一半是对的。我同意他所说的一部分,即消费品、消耗品、实用商品会变得丰富,但总会有稀缺的、令人向往的商品不会变得丰富。而且我认为他夸大了情况。金钱仍然会有价值。财富仍然会有价值。但我会给你一个例子。亨利七世没有干净的水。没有暖气。没有制冷。这些东西,英格兰国王都没有,而技术把所有这些都给了中产阶级。所以如果你今天生活在中产阶级,你知道,你可以切除阑尾,你知道,但亨利七世没有牙冠,他没有X光,所以你得到现代医疗,你知道,婴儿死亡率大幅下降,生活更安全,干净的水,干净的空气,对吧,干净的食物,技术把它们给了我们。我们印出无限的可口可乐,无限的 Hershey 巧克力棒,冰淇淋,对吧?自来水,对吧?电力。所以所有这些都被给了中产阶级、工人阶级,在发达国家,对吧?不是 everywhere,但让我们说在发达国家。但并不是每个人都能得到汉普顿的房子。不是每个人都能拥有自己的私人飞机。他们得不到自己的私人游艇。那么财富爆炸发生了什么?大规模的实用商品权利。很多车,但你知道,好吧,每个人都有一辆车,但有多少人能得到保时捷?人类会发生什么?我们总是发明豪华车?我们想出战利品资产。而且,嗯,但大多数人实际上并不想要那个。他们想要的是能够养家糊口,不用担心账单。所以所有那些人,你说那些人会过得很好。他们不必担心。我说的是,如果你的抱负是美好的生活,如果你想要无限的食物、无限的能源、无限的教育、无限的娱乐,对吧,你可能会得到它。我的观点是理论上,对吧,为什么今天金钱重要?因为每个人,你知道,都有电和水,因为人们想买比水更重要的东西。顺便说一句,水是无产者的饮料。
Original English
Guest: He's half right. I agree with with part of what he says that is consumer goods, consumables, utilitarian goods uh will become abundant, but there are always going to be scarce desirable goods that will not become abundant. And I I think he overstates the case. Money will still be valuable. Wealth will still be valuable. But I'll give you an example. Henry VII didn't have clean water. Did not have heat. Did not have cooling. these things the king of England did not have and technology gave all these things to the middle class and so if you live in the middle class today you know you can have your appendix out you know but Henry VII didn't have dental crowns he didn't have x-rays so you get modern medical care you know the infant mortality rate has plunged life is safer clean water clean air right clean food and technology gave them to us We stamp out infinite Coca-Cola, infinite Hershey's bars, ice cream, right? Running water, right? Electricity. So all of those things have been given to the middle class, the working class in the developed world, right? Not everywhere, but let's say in the developed world. But everybody doesn't get a Hampton's house. Everybody doesn't get their own private jet. They don't get their own private yacht. So what happened with the explosion of affluence? Massive utilitarian entitlement. lots of cars, but you know, okay, so everybody gets a car, but how many people get a Porsche? What happens with humanity is we always invent the luxury car? We come up with the trophy asset. And and again, uh but most people don't actually want that. They want to be able to like feed their family and not have to worry about the bills. So all of those people, you saying that those people are going to be they're going to be good. They're not going to have to worry. I'm saying that if if your aspiration is a good life, if you want infinite food, infinite energy, infinite education, infinite entertainment, right, you're probably going to get it. My point is in theory, right, why does money matter today? Because everybody, you know, has electricity and water because people want to buy something more than water. By the way, water is the proletarian drink.
主持人: 那是什么意思?
Original English
Host: What does that mean?
嘉宾: 意思是,如果你去餐厅,你买不起其他任何东西,你会要一杯水,对吧?然后如果你有更多钱,你会给自己买一杯可口可乐或软饮料,那要五美元。但如果你有更多钱,你会给自己买一杯伏特加。然后当你有更多钱时,你想给自己买那种特制的高端龙舌兰酒。最终人们会找到办法在一杯饮料上花38美元。而且,你知道,在纽约市,你知道,你到处都能看到。为什么我们去餐厅花300美元吃饭?因为你其实每天花三美元就能养活自己。而且——
Original English
Guest: It means that if you go to a restaurant, you don't and you can't afford anything else, you ask for a cup of water, right? [clears throat] And then if you have some more money, you get yourself a Coca-Cola or a soft drink and that costs five bucks. But if you have more money, you buy yourself a vodka. And then when you have more money, you want to buy yourself the specialty high-end tequila. And eventually people find a way to spend $38 on a drink. And uh you know in New York City, you know, you can see that everywhere. Why do we go to restaurants and pay $300 to eat at a restaurant because you can actually feed yourself on three bucks a day? And the
财富等级与人性追求
Speaker A: 答案是,永远都会存在财富的等级分层,人们总会找到值得向往的东西,而这些向往会超越每个人都能得到的实用平均水平。如果我给你全民医疗,人们会想要私人医疗。如果我给每个人一套房子,就会有人想要两倍大的房子。每个人总有理由想要更多的东西,你知道的。
Original English
Speaker A: The answer is there's always going to be a hierarchy of affluence and people are going to find things to aspire to that will be more than the utilitarian mean that everybody gets. If I give you a universal healthcare, people want private healthcare. If I give everybody a house, someone's going to want a house twice as big. Everybody's always going to have a reason to want something more, you know.
Speaker B: 因为我们是追求地位的动物。
Original English
Speaker B: Because we're status orientated animals.
Speaker A: 这是一种愤世嫉俗的看法。但另一种看法是,我想坐在山顶上滑雪,但不是那座山顶,因为那座山顶这周的雪况不好。
Original English
Speaker A: That's the cynical way to look at it. But the other way to look at it is I wanted to be sitting on a mountain peak skiing, but not that mountain peak because the snow's not good on that mountain peak this week.
Speaker B: 而且这座山太挤了。
Original English
Speaker B: And it's too busy on this one.
Speaker A: 对。那座也太拥挤了。你知道,总会有某种排他性存在。总会有一个追求的过程。所以,我认为金钱不会消失。我觉得很明显,如果你环顾四周,人们仍然需要钱。诚然,生活中的基本需求——基本交通、基本能源、基本医疗——所有这些都可以大规模制造,而且会越来越便宜。我们可以称之为消费品。如果这种知识型工作真的被机器人和AI取代了,有些人说会有新工作被创造出来,每个人都会没事。但我不确定在足够的时间内是否会有足够的新工作被创造出来,以满足人们从事专业工作的需求。过去每个人都是农民,对吧?然后突然之间,在美国,我们有了新工作,比如会计师、律师、电影制片人。你是个播客主持人。你的工作在20年前不存在。确实如此。你知道,职位描述不存在,这个行业不存在。今天有很多东西是以前没有的。对,有人靠化妆、穿搭、在Instagram上发帖谋生,这在30年前不是一份工作。所以会有很多新工作。也会有错位,会有政治动荡。我怎么看?我认为这是支持鼓励自由市场、允许自由不受监管的企业蓬勃发展最好的论据,因为如果你有一个进步的社会——顺便说一句,美国在某种程度上是更进步的——
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah. And that one's too crowded. You know, it's like there's always going to be some exclusivity. You know, there's going to be a quest. So, I think that money's not going away. I think it's pretty obvious if you look around you that people still need money. It is true that the basic needs in life, basic transportation, basic energy, basic health care, all of those things can be manufactured in quantity and they'll get progressively cheaper. We'll call them consumer goods. If this knowledge work does become, I guess, taken by the robots and the AIs, there's some people say there's going to be new jobs created and everyone will be fine. But it's not clear to me that there will be enough new jobs created in a period of time to satisfy the demand of people to have something to do professionally. It used to be everybody was a farmer, right? And then all of a sudden in America, we have new jobs like called accountants and lawyers and film producers. You're a podcaster. Your job didn't exist 20 years ago. It did. You know, the job description did not exist. The business did not exist. There's a lot of things that exist today. Yeah. There are people that make a living putting on makeup and clothes and posting on Instagram and that was not a job that existed 30 years ago. So there'll be a lot of new jobs. There'll be dislocation. There's going to be political unrest. What do I think? I think this is the best argument in favor of encouraging a free market and allowing liberal unregulated businesses to prosper because if you have a progressive society and by the way the United States is sort of more progressive—
Speaker B: 在这个语境下,请定义一下“进步”。
Original English
Speaker B: Define progressive in this context.
Speaker A: 你被允许创业,你被允许销售产品,创造东西不是非法的。但在古巴你不能做你现在做的事,对吧?在朝鲜,你做不到。
Original English
Speaker A: You're allowed to start a business, you're allowed to sell a product, it's not illegal to create. But you can't do what you're doing in Cuba, right? In North Korea, you couldn't do it.
Speaker B: 我昨晚读到一些关于自动驾驶汽车的疯狂消息。据说律师们正试图阻止电动汽车,因为这些特定的律师从汽车事故诉讼中赚了很多钱。
Original English
Speaker B: I read something crazy last night about driving autonomous cars. It said lawyers are trying to stop block EVs because these particular lawyers make a lot of money from litigating car accidents.
Speaker A: 我们可不想让人们不撞车。
Original English
Speaker A: We wouldn't want people to not crash.
Speaker B: 对。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah.
Speaker A: 所以关键在于,有各种各样的法律和贸易限制,比如面对现代科技,你不能随便开Airbnb。如果你拥有现代科技,而它正在造成错位,如果你的目标是拥抱科技、创造最大生产力,然后最小化干扰和炎症,那么你提供的自由度越多,痛苦就越少。因为在更自由的社会里,会有1万种新型企业涌现,或者10万个没人想到过的商业机会。它们会威胁到现状,但它们是理性的,会创造价值。然后它们会创造有报酬的就业,为所有被科技取代的人创造财富,对吧?
Original English
Speaker A: So the point is there are all sorts of laws and restraint of trade like you can't have an Airbnb in the face of modern technology. If you have modern technology and it's creating dislocation, if your goal is to embrace the technology, create maximum productivity, and then minimize the disruption and the inflammation, then the more degrees of freedom you offer, the less pain there'll be. Because in a more free society, you're going to have 10,000 new kinds of businesses pop up or 100,000 new business opportunities that no one conceptualized. And they'll be threatening to the status quo, but they'll be rational and they'll create value. And then they will create gainful employment and they'll create wealth for all the people that are displaced, right, by the technology.
咖啡广告插播
Speaker B: 史蒂夫,你在干什么?呃,就是给自己做一杯美味的咖啡。
Original English
Speaker B: Steve, what you doing? Uh, just making myself a delicious coffee.
Speaker A: 从冰箱里拿的?
Original English
Speaker A: From the freezer?
Speaker B: 从冰箱里拿的。你没听说过Cometeer吗?
Original English
Speaker B: From the freezer. Have you not heard about Cometeer?
Speaker A: 没有。
Original English
Speaker A: No.
Speaker B: 天哪。这会改变你的人生。几个月前,这家公司的创始人马特给我们伦敦的办公室寄了一大箱这种咖啡。大多数人不知道的是,咖啡的加工过程会带走很多风味。所以他们做的是,在咖啡最美味的最佳时刻将其闪冻。然后通过邮寄把咖啡以这些小冰块的形式寄给你。马特给我的办公室寄了一大箱。我把它搬到了厨房。我对团队说:“尽情享用吧。”然后我在我们的Slack频道里看到无数消息,大家都在说:“天哪,这到底是什么?太好喝了。”我早上只需要用这东西背面的小按钮把它弹出来。我倒上热水,搅拌一下,就完成了。如果你访问cometeer.com/steven,你的第一笔Cometeer咖啡订单可以减30美元。试试吧,请通过Instagram私信我、通过LinkedIn联系我,告诉我你是否和我一样喜欢它。
Original English
Speaker B: Oh my gosh. This is going to change your life. A couple of months ago, the founder of this business called Matt sent a big shipment of this coffee to our office in London. What most people don't know is that the processing of coffee takes out a lot of the taste. So, what they do is they flash freeze it at the optimal moment when it's most tasty. And they send you in the post the coffee in these little frozen ice cubes. Now, Matt sent a big shipment to my office. I moved it to the kitchen. I said to the team, "Knock yourselves out." And then I saw so many messages in our Slack channel of people going, "Oh my god, what the hell is that? It's so delicious." All I have to do is pop it out in the morning using the little button on the back of this thing. I pour my hot water in and I mix it and that is done. You can get $30 off your first order of Cometeer coffee if you go to cometeer.com/steven. Try it and please Instagram DM me, LinkedIn me and let me know if you love it as much as I do.
CRM系统广告插播
Speaker B: 在过去几年里,你们经常听我谈到的一件事——这在商业和内容创作中如此,在生活中所有事情上也是如此——就是一致性才是真正能产生复利的东西。在销售中也是如此。当你的团队规模小时,一致性自然会发生。团队知道每一笔交易,所以不会有遗漏。但正如我所经历的,当你成长时,这开始瓦解,交易开始流失。跟进没有发生。线索变冷了。这不应该发生。当这种情况发生时,很多领导者看着它,认为他们遇到了人的问题。但实际上这是系统问题。我观察到的那些商业上扩展得很好的企业,都有一个团队每天使用的系统。对我的团队来说,那个系统就是我们的赞助商Pipedrive。它是一个易于使用的智能CRM工具,专为成长中的销售团队设计,让你能看到销售管道中每一笔交易在每个阶段的可见性。它告诉你这笔交易要推进需要发生什么,而且都是实时的。这就是让我们的商业运营保持一致性的东西——无论我们的团队是5人还是商业团队有50人。已经有超过10万家公司在使用它来管理销售。所以,如果你想加入他们,请访问pipedrive.com/ceo注册,你将获得独家的30天免费试用,而不是通常的14天,而且完全不需要信用卡。前往pipedrive.com/ceo。
Original English
Speaker B: One of the things you've heard me talk about quite a lot over the last couple of years, and this is something that's true in business and content, but also with everything in life, is that consistency is the thing that really, really compounds. The same is true in sales. When your team is small, consistency happens naturally. The team knows of every deal, so nothing gets missed. But as I've experienced, when you grow, this starts to break down, and deals start to slip. Follow-ups don't happen. Leads go cold. That shouldn't have. And when this happens, a lot of leaders look at it and think they have a people problem. When actually it's a systems problem. The businesses that I've watched scale well commercially all have a system their team uses every single day. And for my team, that system has been our sponsor, Pipedrive. It's an easy to use intelligent CRM tool for growing sales teams that gives you visibility of every deal in your sales pipeline at every single stage. And it shows you what needs to happen for that deal to move forward, all in real time. It's what keeps our commercial operation consistent when we were a team of five or when our commercial team was a team of 50. Over 100,000 companies are already running their sales on it. So, if you'd like to join them, sign up at pipedrive.com/ceo where you'll get an exclusive 30-day free trial instead of the usual 14 days and there's no credit card needed at all. Head to pipedrive.com/ceo.
AI辅助决策与状态空间
Speaker B: 你知道,早些时候你在谈论如何让AI写一本书。你说话的时候我就在想,有趣的是,我现在会问我的AI我需要读什么书,并让它为我制作那本书,而不是对它发号施令。因为它对我有巨大的记忆。它知道我在处理什么。它知道我在建什么企业,我有什么问题。所以我只是说:我应该问你什么问题?我应该读哪本书?然后你能为我制作那本书吗?做成20页。我喜欢这种特定风格,因为那是我最喜欢的作者风格,然后我想把它下载成MP3文件,在上班路上听。我有43分钟。你能说说我应该问你什么问题吗?
Original English
Speaker B: You know, earlier you were talking about how you can get AI to write a book. I was thinking as you were saying it, the interesting thing is I now ask my AI what book I need to read and to make that book for me versus being prescriptive to it and because it has this huge memory on me. It knows what I'm dealing with. It knows the businesses I'm building, the problems I have. And so I just say what what do I what's the question I should be asking you? Which book should I be reading? And then can you make that book for me? Make it 20 pages. Is I like it in this particular style cuz it's my favorite style of author and then I want to download it as an MP3 file and listen to it on my way to work. I have 43 minutes. Could you say what should what's the question I should be asking you?
Speaker A: 对,你是在用这个作为例子,但归根结底,你必须治理状态空间。例如,任何人都能说“我应该问什么问题?”但真正的问题是什么是输入约束?如果你是尼日利亚拉各斯的一个面包师——
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah, you're using that as an example, but at the end of the day, you have to govern the state space. For example, anybody could say what question should I ask? But the real issue is what's the what are the input constraints? If you're a baker in Nigeria in Lagos—
Speaker B: 好的。
Original English
Speaker B: Okay.
Speaker A: ——对吧?有一组特定的条件,不同于如果你碰巧是洛杉矶的一名消防员。
Original English
Speaker A: —right? There's a certain set of conditions that are different than if you happen to be a fireman in Los Angeles.
Speaker B: 对。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah.
Speaker A: 对。那么,为了创造贡献,你正在探索的状态空间是什么?我给你举个例子。我用AI,去年我用AI赚了150亿美元。
Original English
Speaker A: Right. And so what's the state space that you're exploring in order to create a contribution? And I'll give you an example. I used AI. I used AI to make $15 billion last year.
Speaker B: 这是真事吗?
Original English
Speaker B: Is that true story?
Speaker A: 这是真的,对吧?
Original English
Speaker A: This is true, right?
Speaker B: 你做到了?
Original English
Speaker B: You did?
Speaker A: 我做到了。对。
Original English
Speaker A: I did. Yeah.
Speaker B: 而且我用AI赚了150亿美元,用一种没人能想象到的方式赚了150亿美元。
Original English
Speaker B: And I used an AI to make $15 billion in a way that no one would ever conceive that you could make $15 billion.
Speaker A: 这是个真实的故事。
Original English
Speaker A: This is a true story.
Speaker B: 好的。对。让我们回到2025年的我。我们有一家公司持有数十亿美元的比特币,300亿美元的比特币。我们实际上想筹集资金来购买更多比特币。我们已经用尽了股票市场。我们成为了世界上最大的可转换债券发行方,我们用尽了可转换债券市场,那就是我们的旅程——
Original English
Speaker B: Okay. Yeah. Let's go back to me in 2025. We have a company that has billions of dollars of Bitcoin, $30 billion of Bitcoin. We want to actually raise capital to buy more Bitcoin. We maxed out the equity markets. We became the largest issuer of convertible bonds in the world and we maxed out the convertible bond market and that was our journey—
比特币策略的瓶颈与STRK的诞生
Michael Saylor: 我们比特币之旅的头五年就是这样。
Original English
Michael Saylor: The first five years of our Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor: 为了给Jenny和Dave简化说明,你们俩当时尽可能地从传统渠道借了尽可能多的钱。
Original English
Michael Saylor: To simplify this for Jenny and Dave, you borrowed as much money as you could from traditional means.
Jenny: 是的。
Original English
Jenny: Yes.
Michael Saylor: 好的,没错。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Okay. Yeah.
Jenny: 用来买比特币。
Original English
Jenny: To buy Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor: 对。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Yeah.
Michael Saylor: 对。到2025年初,我们已经发行了所有能发行的可转换债券。我们是全球最大的发行方,但这种方式已经无法再扩展了。所以,我们需要发明一种新型的证券,一种新型的信用工具,用来借钱买更多比特币。于是,我们去找了AI。我去找AI,开始探索如何设计优先股。我说,我想创造一种既不是普通股、也不是债券的证券。我想要一种介于两者之间的混合体。优先股,你知道,对外行人来说,它就是一种可以赋予任何条款的证券。我可以卖给你一只优先股,给你在12个月后卖回给我的权利,那它看起来就像债务。我可以给它一个保证的票息。我也可以给它转换权,让它看起来像股权。所以,我们用AI设计了一种可转换优先股,叫做STRK。当我们做这件事的时候,之前从来没有人创造过由比特币支持的优先股,而且我们也从未发行过。所以,这有点像金融工程、数字资产工程、法律工作和证券法的结合。我们把它造了出来,当我们去问律师和银行家的时候,他们说:“嗯,以前没人做过。”明白吗?你知道,他们的回答其实是,以前没人做过,而人们不会去做那种事。我们就说,好吧,别人做过的所有事情,我们都已经做到极致了。所以,我们正处于一个节点,除非我们找到一条跳出框框的路,否则我们的增长就要停止了。所以,我们必须得做一些以前没人做过的事情,用新技术,对吧?我们用数字资本,我们用数字智能,我们还用一家数字财务公司。用三种新形式的东西来创造价值。在我们做完这三件事之后,我们决定要做的,是创造一种短期信用工具,一种能稳定在100美元左右、也就是面值附近交易的品种。我们在想办法,怎么让一只优先股能稳定地交易。这在技术上叫短期信用,但本质上,我们是想创造一种货币市场类的工具,人们可以100块买进,100块卖出,赚取收益,不用担心它价格上下波动,或者对利率敏感。那么,要做到这一点,为了让价格稳定,你就必须改变股息率。所以,我们创造了一种工具,可以每个月调整股息率。那么,以前有人做过吗?没有。在世界历史上,从来没有人创造过浮动股息率的优先股。这违法吗?不违法。那为什么从来没人做过?因为从来没有人有理由去做。他们从没想过要这么做。律师、银行家、传统投资者,他们都说:“嗯,我们以前从没见过这么做的。我们不确定你能不能做。”我们去找AI。我们问:“嗯,我们能这么做吗?”他们说:“当然可以。你只要这么做、这么做、这么做、这么做,就行了。”嗯,他们说他们不喜欢那样。那我们就这么做、这么做、这么做。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Yeah. By the beginning of 2025, we had issued as many convertible bonds as you could issue. We were the largest issuer in the world and it wasn't scalable. So, we needed to invent a new type of security, a new type of credit instrument that we could use to borrow money to buy more Bitcoin. So, we went to the AI. I went to the AI and I started exploring how do I design a preferred stock? And so, I said, I think I want to create a security that's not a common equity and I don't want it to be a bond. I want it to be some hybrid in the middle. A preferred stock, you know, for the layman, it's just a security that could be anything. You can give it any terms. I can sell you a preferred stock and give you the right to put it back to me in 12 months and it looks like debt. I can give you a guaranteed coupon on it. I can give you conversion rights and make it look like equity. So, we used AI to design a convertible preferred stock called STRK. When we did it, no one had ever created a preferred stock that was backed by Bitcoin before and we'd never issued it. And so it was kind of a combination of financial engineering and digital asset engineering and legal work and securities law. So we built it and you know when we asked the lawyers and the bankers, they're like, "Well, no one's ever done it before." Okay? And you know their answer by the way is no one's ever done it before and people don't do that. So, we don't think you should do that. And we're like, well, everything else that people have done, we've maxed out. And so, we're kind of at the point where our growth is going to stop unless we find a way out of the box. So, we're going to have to do something no one's ever done before using new technology, right? We're using digital capital, we're using digital intelligence, and we're using a digital treasury company. So, three new forms of something in order to create value. And after we done three of them, we decided what we wanted to do was create a short duration credit instrument, one that would trade stably around $100, around par. And we're trying to figure out how do you get a preferred stock to trade at a stable level. It's what you would call technically short duration credit, but it's like we're trying to create a money market type instrument where people can buy it at 100, sell it at 100, collect the yield, and not worry about it trading up and down or being sensitive to interest rates. Well, if you do that, you have to, in order to get it to trade stable, if you want the price to be stable, you have to change the dividend rate. And so, we created an instrument where we could change the dividend rate every month. Now, had anybody ever done it? No. In the history of the world, no one ever created a variable dividend rate preferred stock. Is it illegal? No. Why has no one ever done it? No one ever had a reason to do it. They never thought to do it. The lawyers, the bankers, the conventional investors, they're like, "Well, we've never seen it done before. We're not sure you can do it." We go to the AI. We said, "Well, can we do it?" They're like, "Of course you can do it. Just do this, this, and this, and this, and that." Well, they said they don't like that. We'll just do this, this, this.
Dave: 用的是哪个AI?
Original English
Dave: Which AI?
Michael Saylor: ChatGPT,OpenAI的。所以,ChatGPT帮你赚了150亿美元。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Chat, GPT, Open AI. So, ChatGPT made you $15 billion.
Michael Saylor: 是的。因为简单来说,我们把那次IPO带到了市场。它成了一笔25亿美元的IPO,是今年迄今为止最大的一笔IPO。然后我们又给它上了架注册,又卖了80亿美元。所以,我们卖了105亿美元的那种工具,加上其他工具的40亿美元。所以,我们基本上卖了150亿美元的信用产品,这大致相当于公司赚了约150亿美元。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Yeah. Because the short of it is we brought that IPO to market. It became a $2.5 billion IPO, the biggest IPO of the year to date. And then we put a shelf registration on it. We sold another $8 billion of it. So, we sold 10.5 billion of that instrument plus 4 billion of the other instruments. So, we basically sold $15 billion of credit, which kind of equates to the company making about $15 billion.
AI带来的套利机会与S曲线理论
Dave: 我在想这对普通听众来说意味着什么,因为每个人都在寻找商业创意和新点子。你告诉我,你现在可以用AI想出新颖的、跳出框框的商业创意和解决方案,并且能为人们创造价值。嗯,这听起来几乎就像是一种利用这种智能的套利机会。我前几天读到一篇文章,说目前仍然只有2%的家庭订阅了ChatGPT或其他AI服务。所以,你觉得对于那些现在就去使用AI、并从中构建商业创意的人来说,这里面存在套利机会吗?
Original English
Dave: I'm thinking about what this means generally for the average person listening, because everyone's like searching for business ideas and new ideas. And you're telling me that you can use AI now to come up with novel business ideas and solutions that are outside of the box and that would generate value for people. Um, you know, it's almost like hearing that there's an arbitrage opportunity with this intelligence. I was reading something the other day that said only 2% of households have a chat GPT or AI subscription still. So do you think there is an arbitrage there for people who go to AI now and can build business ideas from it?
Michael Saylor: 如果你是创业者,对吧,如果你渴望创立一家企业或创造一些有价值的东西,那么毫无疑问,你绝对应该选择其中一个或多个AI,也许你想熟练使用多个。它们只是不同的工具。这有点像说,你得学会用电脑,你得学会读、写、算,对吧?这些只是基本功。然后,一旦你做到了,你确实需要在某个领域拥有专业知识,对吧?问题是你打算做什么,对吧?你要么想创造一种新产品,要么想创造一种新服务,要么你想用AI彻底改造一个现有的产品或服务,让它更便宜、更好。但在我看来,你知道,我会努力创造一些神奇的东西。比如,你能不能创造出一种东西,能做所有人的会计,你知道,做一百万个会计师的工作,然后每月只卖10美元?对吧?
Original English
Michael Saylor: If you're an entrepreneur, right, if you aspire to create a business or create something of value, then it's the no-brainer is you definitely should pick one or more of these AIs and maybe you want to become adept using multiple them. They're just different tools. It's kind of like saying you got to learn how to use a computer and you got to learn how to read reading, writing, arithmetic, right? Just basics. And then once you've done that, you do need to have some domain expertise in something, right? The question is what are you going to do, right? You either want to create a new product or you want to create a new service or you want to radically transform an existing product or service using AI to be much cheaper, much better. But to my mind, you know, I would try to create something magical. Like for example, can you create something that does everybody's accounting, does the work of a million accountants and sell it for 10 bucks a month? Right?
Dave: 如果你现在18岁,如果你的孩子来找你,说:“爸,我上大学应该学什么,不应该学什么?”当我们站在这项新技术的山脚下时,你的答案会和现在不一样吗?
Original English
Dave: If you were 18 now, if your kids came to you and said, "Dad, what should I go and study at university and what shouldn't I study at university?" Would your answer be different now as we stand on the foothills of this new technology?
Michael Saylor: 你要学新东西,对吧?你要学那个新事物。所以,如果你看看科学史,真正的问题是什么正处于S曲线上。
Original English
Michael Saylor: You want to study the new thing, right? You want to learn the new thing. And so if you look at the history of science, the real question is what's on the S-curve.
Dave: 在S曲线上。
Original English
Dave: On the S-curve.
Michael Saylor: S曲线的整个理论是,一千年里我们试图飞行,但毫无进展。你飞不起来。然后到了1903年,突然间我们勉强能飞了。在66年里,我们从每小时飞行20英里发展到每小时飞行300英里。先是战斗机,然后是客机。然后我们有了无人火箭。然后我们有了载人火箭,然后我们有了能进入轨道的火箭,然后我们有了能登上月球的火箭。所以,这就是S曲线的一个例子。但你知道后来发生了什么吗?在70年代中期,我们设计了737和747,然后我们撞上了一堵墙,你知道,737在接下来的50年里仍然是主力机型。如果你看看从1975年到2025年这50年里飞机的效率,现代飞机只提高了15%的效率。所以,你得到的是收益递减,当你在S曲线上时,事物每3年翻一番,你翻倍、翻倍、再翻倍,指数增长,然后你遇到收益递减,然后你停滞不前,然后你停下来,然后事情就再也无法变得更好了。所以——
Original English
Michael Saylor: The whole theory of the S-curve is for a thousand years we try to fly and infinite energy makes no progress. You cannot fly. And then in 1903, all of a sudden we can sort of fly. And in 66 years, we go from flying 20 miles an hour to flying 300 miles an hour. First a fighter jet, then a passenger jet. Then we have like rockets that are unmanned. Then we have man rockets and then we have rockets that go to orbit and then we have rockets that go to the moon. And so that's an example of an S-curve. But then you know what happens in the mid-70s we designed the 737 the 747 and we hit a wall you know and 737 is still the primary airplane for the next 50 years. And if you look at the efficiency of an airplane from 1975 to the year 2025 over 50 years the modern airplanes are 15% more efficient like so what you got was a diminishing return and when you're on the S-curve things are doubling every 3 years you're doubling you're doubling you're doubling your exponential growth and then you hit diminishing returns and then you stagnate and then you stop and then things are just not getting any better. So—
Dave: 让我们在屏幕上展示一个S曲线,同时展示它下面正在到来的新S曲线。
Original English
Dave: Let's show an S-curve on the screen and also the new S-curve coming in below it.
Michael Saylor: 比如,当我在麻省理工学院的时候,你知道,基本上所有人都涌向电子工程和计算机科学,因为那是很酷的东西。所以,上学时容易犯的错误是,你最终会处在S曲线的末端。你基本上是在学习一个已经达到收益递减的东西。一旦你达到收益递减,可能100年都不会有实质性进展。也许你就是无法突破。推进技术就是限制因素。比如,为什么我们没有能超音速飞行、用这么一小箱油就能飞的飞机,对吧?或者聚变驱动器。嗯,因为我们没有。另一方面,半导体,嗯,开始爆发,半导体技术一直在持续进步。我们还没有达到那个极限。这就是为什么过去50年在计算机科学领域取得了如此多深远的突破。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Like when I was at MIT, you know, everybody basically flocked to electrical engineering and computer science because that was the cool thing. And so the mistake to make when you go to school is you get at the end of the S-curve. You basically start studying something that has hit diminishing returns. And once you hit that diminishing return, no material progress may take place for 100 years. It might be that you just can't break through. Propulsion technology is the limiting factor. Like why don't we have planes that will fly, you know, supersonic, you know, on a tank of gas that's this much, right? Or fusion drives. Well, because we don't. Now on the other hand, semiconductors started exploding and semiconductor technology has continued to advance. We haven't hit that limit yet. And that's why so many profound breakthroughs were made in computer science over the past 50 years.
形态因子已触及S曲线
主持人: 这种形态已经触及了S曲线,对吧?作为一种形态因子,我的iPhone,你知道,自从iPhone以来,正如你所说,自从iPhone 6以来,它并没有真正变得更薄、更好。电池也没有真正实现飞跃式的进步。所以,我们现在正在寻找另一种与计算机交互的形态因子。
Original English
Host: This has kind of hit an S-curve, hasn't it? As a form factor, my iPhone here, you know that over since the iPhone, as you said, since iPhone like 6, it hasn't really gotten thinner, better. The battery hasn't really taken a leap forward as such. So, we're now looking for another form factor to interface with computers.
嘉宾: 是的。你知道,iPhone 1没有剪切和粘贴功能,我们直到第三代才获得剪切和粘贴功能。所以,从第1版到第6版或第7版,有一个快速的改进过程。在那个时候,你开始触及收益递减点。如果你做一个效用函数,按1到100分打分,你会很快从5分升到70分,然后在接下来的几次迭代中从70分升到90分,然后就是91、92分,你触及了那个极限。现在,如果你正在创办一家公司,你不会再创造另一部iPhone,对吧?现在真正的问题是,我能不能创造一副智能眼镜?就像我的毛伊岛健身房太阳镜一样,我戴上它们,它们几乎没有重量,它们有摄像头,它们能看到我所看到的,听到我所听到的,知道我在哪里,然后接入人工智能。到那时,我就可以直接说:“嘿,Eve,那是什么?”你知道,我在哪里?给我讲讲那个。然后就是,为什么我还需要打字?当我见到马克·扎克伯格时,他给我看了Meta正在研发的设备。这不是什么秘密,因为我知道他们已经公开谈论过这件事。
Original English
Guest: Yeah. You know, the iPhone 1 didn't have cut and paste, and we didn't get cut and paste till the version three. And so, there was a rapid improvement versions 1 through six or 1 through 7, call it. And at that point, you start hitting diminishing returns. And if you were to do some utility function and you were to score it on a scale of 1 to 100, you would have gone from like five to 70 in a hurry and then you would have gone from 70 to 90 over the next few iterations and then you're 91, 92, you hit that limit. And now if you are starting a company right, you don't create another iPhone, right? The real question right now is, can I create smart glasses where I have something that's like my Maui gym sunglasses? I put them on, they weigh nothing and they have the camera and they see what I see and they hear what I hear and they know where I am and plug that into AI. And at that point, I can just say, "Hey, Eve, what is that?" You know, where am I? And tell me about that. And it's like, why do I have to type anymore? When I met Mark Zuckerberg, he showed me the device that's on the way from Meta. This is not a secret because I know they've talked about it publicly.
嘉宾: 那只是一个普通的腕带,上面没有屏幕,但它连接到了眼镜。在眼镜里,当我环顾四周时,我能看到我所有的屏幕和所有类似的东西。而且,因为这个腕带,如果我只要点击一下,它就能点击所有东西。所以,我就坐在这里,戴着这个小腕带。那个腕带再次强调,就像一条棉质手链,非常细的棉质手链。当我环顾四周时,我可以点击所有东西,打开东西,给人打电话,上YouTube等等。而且它就在我的周边视野里。你再想象一下,想象那是在一条S曲线上。在某个时候,它会变成某种几乎像隐形眼镜一样的东西,我可以直接——
Original English
Guest: Which is just a plain wrist strap with no screen on it, but it linked to the glasses. And in the glasses, when I looked around, I could see all of my screens and everything like that. And if I just because of this wrist strap, if I just click, it clicks on all the stuff. So, I was just sat here with this little wrist strap. The wrist strap again was just like a cotton bracelet, very thin cotton bracelet. And as I just looked around, I could click on everything and open things and call people and go on YouTube, etc. And it was just up here in my peripheral. You imagine again, imagine that on an S-curve. At some point, it's going to be some sort of like almost like contact lens type thing that I can just—
主持人: 顺便说一句,这就是为什么你应该研究幻想,对吧?因为在魔法世界里,他们有这个,对吧?这就像,你知道,就像我戴上我的护身符,你知道吗?我有一条项链。有什么区别?哦,它让我全知全能、无所不能、永生不死、坚不可摧。我永远活着。那么,你需要做什么才能让产品起作用?什么都不用做。我戴着腕带,我走路,每扇门都为我打开,事情就发生了。这就是埃隆做对的地方。就像,第一号工程错误是工程师想要优化一个本不该存在的部件。就像,让部件消失,对吧?我们回到你应该学什么的话题,对吧?要学习那些能让你创造出你父母永远无法创造的魔法般事物的技术。如果你的父母会说那是魔法,那你就走对路了,对吧?那么,什么比腕带更好?就像,不如你直接植入一个小颗粒——
Original English
Host: By the way, this is why you should study fantasy, right? Because they have this, right, in magic worlds, right? This is like, you know, like I just wear my talisman, you know? I have a necklace. What is it different? Oh, it makes me omniscient, all powerful, immortal, indestructible. I live forever. Well, what do you have to do to make the product work? Nothing. I'm wearing the wristband and I walk and every door opens to me and stuff happens. And here's where Elon gets it right. It's like the number one engineering mistake is engineers want to optimize a part that shouldn't exist. Like, make the parts go away, right? We start on the topic of what should you study, right? It's study technologies that allow you to create magic things that your parents could never. If your parents would say that's magic, you're on the right track, right? So like how about what's better than the wristband? Just like how about you just like implant one pellet—
主持人: 神经链接?
Original English
Host: Neural link?
嘉宾: 是的。也许那是神经链接。也许那是,嗯,也许那是我出生时就有一个微小的植入物,然后我就能听到,就像我可以永远与网络空间里的人工智能对话。
Original English
Guest: Yeah. Maybe it's a neurolink. Maybe it's, uh, maybe it's when I'm born there's a slight implant and now I hear like I can talk to the AI in cyberspace forever.
主持人: 但是你应该去研究那个吗?因为可以想象,人工智能和机器人将会是创造那种技术的角色,如果他们有博士学位和一切,而且那正在加速。
Original English
Host: But should you go study that because conceivably the artificial intelligence and the robots are going to be the ones that create that technology if they have a PhD and everything and that's accelerating.
嘉宾: 是的。嗯,我想我们又回到了“你应该学什么”的问题。你应该学习数字智能或数字资产,如果你能生成,你知道,生成蛋白质,生成任何种类的生命形式或酶或蛋白质之类的。也许那很有趣,但我认为,嗯,关于人工智能,你不想学习如何做人工智能能做的事情。你想做的是学习如何让人工智能去做以前从未做过的事情。比如,如果我要回到学校,我学到的95%的东西,我可能都不想再学了。
Original English
Guest: Yeah. Well, I guess we're back to the what should you study? You ought to study digital intelligence or digital assets if you can generate, you know, generate proteins, generate any kind of life form or enzyme or protein or the like. Maybe it's interesting, but I think, um, with regard to AI, you don't want to learn how to do things the AI can do. What you want to do is learn how to ask the AI to do something that's never been done before. Like if I were to go back to school, 95% of what I learned, uh, I probably wouldn't want to study.
主持人: 那外科医生呢?你觉得你想当外科医生吗?
Original English
Host: What about a surgeon? Do you think you want to be a surgeon?
嘉宾: 不。
Original English
Guest: No.
主持人: 那律师呢?
Original English
Host: What about a lawyer?
嘉宾: 不。
Original English
Guest: No.
主持人: 会计师?
Original English
Host: Accountant?
嘉宾: 不。
Original English
Guest: No.
主持人: 司机?
Original English
Host: Driver?
嘉宾: 不。在某个时候,你必须做的是,你还没有真正回答这个问题,但你必须问,什么是文明尚未回答的边缘问题?也许我会接受它。我接受这个立场,那就是你在世界上创造价值的方式,是你把以前不存在的东西带到这个世界上来。
Original English
Guest: No. At some point, what you have to do is ask—you aren't really answering the question yet—but you have to ask whatever is the marginal question that hasn't been answered by the civilization. Maybe I'll take it. I'll take that position, which is the way you create value in the world is you bring something into the world that wasn't here before.
1%日记
主持人: 这是我为你准备的东西。我意识到,亲爱的观众们都是奋斗者。无论是在商业还是健康方面,我们都有想要实现的大目标。我学到的一件事是,当你瞄准一个非常非常大的目标时,它会让人感到极其心理不适,因为这有点像站在珠穆朗玛峰脚下仰望。实现目标的方法是把它们分解成微小的步骤。我们在团队中称之为“1%”。实际上,这个理念对我们在这里取得的许多成功负有重大责任。所以,为了让在家观看的你们能够实现任何大目标,我们制作了这些1%日记,去年发布时全部售罄。所以我一次又一次地要求我的团队把日记带回来,同时也引入一些新颜色,并对日记做一些小的调整。所以,现在我们为你提供了更好的系列。所以,如果你心中有一个大目标,你需要一个框架、一个流程和一些动力,那么我强烈建议你在它们再次售罄之前买一本。你可以在thediary.com买到你的日记。如果你想要链接,链接就在下面的描述中。下面应该有一个按钮。如果它写着“已订阅”,那说明你已经订阅了。如果它写着“订阅”,那说明你还没有订阅。如果你还没有订阅,请你帮我们一个忙,点击那个按钮好吗?它对节目的帮助超乎你的想象。而且根据算法,你是观看我们节目的人,但你还没有点击那个按钮。非常感谢。
Original English
Host: This is something that I've made for you. I realize that the dear audience are strivers. Whether it's in business or health, we all have big goals that we want to accomplish. And one of the things I've learned is that when you aim at the big big big goal, it can feel incredibly psychologically uncomfortable because it's kind of like being stood at the foot of Mount Everest and looking upwards. The way to accomplish your goals is by breaking them down into tiny small steps. And we call this in our team the 1%. And actually this philosophy is highly responsible for much of our success here. So, what we've done so that you at home can accomplish any big goal that you have is we've made these 1% diaries and we released these last year and they all sold out. So, I asked my team over and over again to bring the diaries back, but also to introduce some new colors and to make some minor tweaks to the diary. So, now we have a better range for you. So, if you have a big goal in mind and you need a framework and a process and some motivation, then I highly recommend you get one of these diaries before they all sell out once again. And you can get yours at thediary.com. And if you want the link, the link is in the description below. There should be a button just down below here. And if it says subscribed, you're already subscribed. If it says subscriber, that means you're not yet. And if you're not subscribed, please could you do us a favor and hit that button? It helps the show more than you know. And according to the algorithm, you're someone that watches our show, but you haven't yet hit that button. Thank you so much.
为机器人转型做准备
主持人: 除了购买比特币,对于你所说的这种机器人转型,工薪阶层现在应该采取哪些实际可行的步骤来准备?
Original English
Host: Beyond just buying Bitcoin, is there any sort of actionable steps that the working class should take right now to prepare for this robot transition that you're talking about?
嘉宾: 我的意思是,实际可行的步骤就是学习——
Original English
Guest: I mean, the actionable step is learn—
主持人: 学习关于机器人的知识——
Original English
Host: Learn about the robots—
嘉宾: 数字——
Original English
Guest: Digital—
主持人: 数字——
Original English
Host: Digital—
嘉宾: 就像理解数字。例如,现在YouTube上有多少内容可用?
Original English
Guest: Like understand digital. For example, how much content's available on YouTube right now?
主持人: 几乎是无限的。
Original English
Host: Infinite rather now.
嘉宾: 对。你能在YouTube上免费获得什么,你能创造出什么有价值的东西?如果你从事内容创作行业,我的建议是研究数字渠道,这就像,我该不该去百老汇当舞台演员?那是一个小得多的领域。Mr. Beast能获得1亿订阅者。你能获得2000万订阅者。如果你做你父母父母做过的事情,你是不可能获得2000万订阅者的。所以,我认为你要关注数字平台。有数字通信,比如X或Instagram。有YouTube之类的,但也有数字智能。
Original English
Guest: Right. What can you get for free on YouTube and what can you create of value? Right, if you're in the business of content creation, my advice would be study digital channels as it's like, should I go and become a stage actor on Broadway? It's a much smaller thing. Mr. Beast can get 100 million subscribers. You can get 20 million subscribers. You're not getting 20 million subscribers if you do the thing that your parents' parents did. So, I think that you want to look at digital platforms. There's digital communication like X or Instagram. There's YouTube and the like, but there's also digital intelligence.
主持人: 让我们先稍微压力测试一下第一点。我想很多内容创作者现在都在想,因为这些前沿模型可以生成视频、内容、图片。一个在孟买或我们现在所在的曼彻斯特的孩子,可以在睡觉时设置一个代理,然后说:“听着,趁我睡觉的时候,在每个平台上发布100个视频。实际上,我会做五个代理,让它们每个都发布100个视频。”所以,从供需角度来看,你将会面临这种情况,这大概是一个供应冲击。一场“垃圾内容海啸”即将到来。然后如果你看在线注意力的需求,它可以说是固定的。《金融时报》有一篇报道说,年轻人实际上开始减少上网时间。
Original English
Host: Let's just stress test that first point a bit. I guess a lot of content creators are thinking at the moment now because of these frontier models that can produce video, content, pictures. A kid in Mumbai or Manchester where we are now can set up an agent while they're asleep and say, "Listen, just post 100 videos while I'm asleep on this every single platform. Actually, I'll make five agents and I'll ask all of them to post 100 videos each." So, you're going to have this—you have in terms of supply and demand, presumably that's a supply shock. There's this slop tsunami coming in and then if you look at demand of attention online it is arguably fixed. Financial Times did a report said that young people are actually starting to come down in terms of time spent online.
嘉宾: 嗯,稍微年长一些的世代起点较低。他们仍在上升,但是——
Original English
Guest: Uh, slightly older generations are starting from a lower base. They're still going up but—
从较低起点出发的供给过剩
Speaker A: 它们是从一个较低的起点出发的。所以你就看到了供给像海啸一样涌来,而需求却是固定的。
Original English
Speaker A: They're starting from a lower base. So you got a tsunami slop of supply and fixed demand.
Speaker B: 就连这个行业本身也让人感觉有点不稳定。实际上,很多大播客主在YouTube上的数据都在下滑。如果我看一下我所在领域里我认为排名前五的播客主,他们每一个人在过去大约20、12到24个月里都至少下降了50%。
Original English
Speaker B: This even this business feels a little bit insecure. Actually, a lot of the major podcasters are actually down on YouTube. If I look at the top who I would consider the sort of top five podcasters in my niche, um, every single one of them is down at least 50%. In the last 20ish, uh, 12, 12, 24 months.
Speaker A: 嗯,解决办法肯定不是不去关注,对吧?所以,举个例子,如果你现在从事内容创作这个行业,你会问这样一个问题:我能不能用AI来增强内容,或者我能不能用AI来更好地营销或分发内容?
Original English
Speaker A: Well, the solution is certainly not to not pay attention, right? So, for example, if you're in the business of creating content right now, you would ask the question, can I enhance the content with AI or can I better market or distribute the content with AI?
Speaker B: 护城河是什么?护城河将是最有才华的内容,是那个创作出人人都想看的、最棒作品的人。现在有一些视频,比如“带你参观一艘16世纪的战舰”,我不知道你有没有看过,有个人从龙骨开始搭建整艘战舰,他做出肋骨,给你看下层甲板和压舱物,带你走过每一个步骤。这是一个三维的、呃,视频动画,大约一个小时,绝对引人入胜。我没有任何理由去关心16世纪的战舰,但我就是无法把目光移开,因为看他解释一切实在太迷人了。
Original English
Speaker B: What is the moat? The moat's going to be the most talented content, the person creating the best stuff that everybody wants to see. There are videos being created like here's a walkthrough of a 16th century warship and you know I don't know if you've seen a guy constructs the entire warship from the keel and he creates the ribs and he shows you the lower deck and the ballast and he takes you through every step and it's a three-dimensional uh video animation takes about an hour and it's absolutely riveting. I have no reason to care about 16th century warships, but I can't take my eyes off it because it's just so fascinating to see him explain everything.
创造力与技术窗口
Speaker A: 你是说创造力仍然是护城河,还是说理解人类想要什么然后把它交付出来——我猜这也就是创造力?就拿齐柏林飞艇的例子来说吧。
Original English
Speaker A: Are you saying creativity is the moat still, or understanding what humans want and then delivering it which I guess is creativity? Let's say the Led Zeppelin example.
Speaker B: 但你在人类历史中看到的是,每当出现一个新的技术平台,在10年之内,就会出现一些天才,他们把它推到极限,完成了所有可能事情的95%,而且这一切都发生在10年之内,然后他们永垂不朽。所以,为什么在贝多芬之前没有人用钢琴做出那些东西?呃,钢琴问世了,某个天才用钢琴做出了成就,对吧?而在贝多芬和肖邦之间,还有你知道的,一些演奏家,在我看来,就算人类再尝试一万年,也不清楚他们能不能做得更好。所以对于齐柏林飞艇,你有了电吉他和扩音设备,一切在60年代末都契合了,就像60年代初的声音还没完全到位,但到了1971、72年,你就能做出一些惊人的东西了。如果你想想1970年到1980年间所有的经典摇滚,那是人类创造力在众多方向上不断突破边界。然后你就遇到了收益递减。接着,采样技术出现了,对吧?然后你有了瑞典浩室黑手党和Avicii,那是新技术。然后他们把它推到极致。接着YouTube出现了,贾斯汀·比伯横空出世,你知道的,Mr. Beast也横空出世,他们把它推到极致。你在每一代人身上看到的是,我给你一个新东西,无论是钢琴、电吉他还是互联网。想想Facebook和马克·扎克伯格,他在网络刚刚能够实现那一切的时候做了那些事。再想想早期的移动应用,你知道的,WhatsApp之类的。如果你想创造这些令人难以置信的成功事物,你要做的是,找到那个神奇的机会,正好处在S曲线上的那个正确位置,在那个刚刚变得商业上可行的时刻,那是一个从0到1的瞬间,你要在那里。你要成为第一个把那种技术应用到那个新想法上的人,对吧?就像我们公司是怎么从零做到600亿美元,或者说从10亿做到600亿的?我们是第一家把数字资本比特币和数字信贷以及数字国库模型结合在一起的公司。所以我们创造了一种信贷工具,一种以前从未能创造出来的证券。或者说,10年前你造不出来。你只能在比特币之上构建它,其他任何东西都不行。所以我们需要先积累到100亿或200亿美元的资本,然后我们才能创造出这个价值数十亿美元的东西,它产生了共鸣,那个窗口期大约是12到24个月,你穿过那个窗口,创造出可能价值千亿美元的东西,因为如果你早了36个月,你会撞上一堵墙然后失败。而如果你等到现在,我们公司已经是第二大公司的20倍大,是做着类似事情公司的50倍大。我们计划过吗?完全没有。我们发现了一些非常酷的东西。我们全心全意地投入其中,我们宣称无论如何我们都要让它成功。我们被当面揍了一百次。每一次我们遇到问题,我们就停下来。我们重新校准。我们换一个方向,而创造美好事物的过程,就像那个美好的东西,比如每个人都想要一个支付10%利息的银行账户。所以如果你能想办法用一项新技术给人们他们想要的东西,而这项技术在5年前或3年前还不存在、不可能实现,那么你就在社会中产生了共鸣,对吧,你就会像病毒一样传播,我们只是第一个到达那里的人,它就爆发了。如果你现在给我10亿美元,让我去搞一个营销活动,效果不会有那么好,你没法用10亿美元的营销买到那种成功。你只需要像齐柏林飞艇那些人一样,他们没有花10亿美元做营销。你得在对的时间、对的地点,并且有勇气把新东西提供给人们。
Original English
Speaker B: But what you see in human history is within 10 years of whenever there's a new technology platform, there's some geniuses, they push it to the limit and they do 95% of everything that can be done and it all happens within 10 years and they live forever. So why didn't anybody before Beethoven do stuff with the panel? Uh, the piano comes out, some genius does stuff with the piano, right? And between Beethoven and Chopin and you know and a few players, it's like it's not clear to me if humans try for another 10,000 years, they'll do much better. So with Led Zeppelin, you had electric guitars and you had amplification and everything kind of clicked late 60s, like the sound of the early 60s was not quite there and then by 1971, 72 you could do some amazing stuff. And if you think about all the classic rock between 1970 and 1980 you have human creativity pushing the edge of the envelope in so many directions. And then you hit this diminishing return. And then along comes sampling, right? And then you get Swedish House Mafia and Avicii and that's new technology. And then they push it to the extreme. And then along comes YouTube and Justin Bieber comes out of nowhere, you know, and Mr. Beast comes out of nowhere and they push it to the extreme. And what you see with every generation is I give you a new thing whether it's a piano or electric guitar or internet. Think about Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg and what he did at just about the point when you could do that with the web. And then think about the early mobile apps, you know, WhatsApp and the like. It's like what you want to do if you want to create these incredible success things is you want to locate the magic opportunity right at the right point on the S-curve where it just now became commercially viable to do it and it's a zero to one moment and you want to be there. You want to be the first person that applies that technology, right? Uh, to this new idea. Like what did our company do to go from nothing to $60 billion or from 1 billion to 60 billion? We were the first company to take digital capital Bitcoin and put it together with digital credit and a digital treasury model. So we created a credit instrument, a security that you could never created before. Or you couldn't have made it 10 years ago. You couldn't build it on top of anything other than Bitcoin. So we needed to get to the point where we had 10 or 20 billion dollars of capital and then we could create this thing that was a multi-billion dollar thing and that becomes resonant and that window is like 12 to 24 months and you go through that window and you create something that might be a hundred billion dollar thing because you go through, if you went through 36 months early you smack into a wall and you fail. And if you wait like at this point our company is 20 times bigger than the next biggest one, 50 times bigger than the company doing something similar. Did we plan it? Not at all. We found some extraordinary cool thing. We committed to it with all of our heart and soul and we declared we were going to make it work come hell or high water. And we got punched in the face a hundred times. And every single time we ran into a problem, we stopped. We recalibrated. We went a different direction and the process of creating something beautiful like the beautiful thing like everybody wants a bank account that pays 10%. So if you can figure out how to give people this thing they want with a new technology that was impossible that did not exist 5 years or 3 years earlier then you resonate in the society right you'd go viral like we were just the first ones to get there it exploded. If you gave me a billion dollars right now and said run a marketing campaign it wouldn't be as effective like you couldn't buy the success with a billion dollars of marketing. You just have to, the Led Zepp guys, they didn't spend a billion dollars marketing. You got to be in the right place, the right time, and you have to have the courage to offer people the new thing.
个性化算法时代的成名曲线
Speaker A: 我一直在思考你说的这个想法,你知道的,就算你花了10亿美元,你也无法像那样走红。而如果今天有人花一大笔钱,他们也不可能达到,比如说,迈克尔·杰克逊那样的高度。当我们回顾历史时,我在想这个问题,因为我最近看了迈克尔·杰克逊的纪录片,他当时的名气水平,我认为从那以后我们再也没有见过。我觉得部分原因是因为当时的分发渠道是受限的。所以在我家里,那边有20张专辑,盒装专辑,迈克尔·杰克逊占了其中三张。然后我们消费的另一种方式是那边的电视,只有大约六个频道,MTV是其中之一,而MTV整天都在放迈克尔·杰克逊。[嗤笑] 而在我们现在生活的世界里,我的手机体验和你的手机体验完全不同,因为有了AI。AI在学习我喜欢什么,然后给我看我自己的小小世界版本。我[嗤笑]想知道,如今是否还有人有可能达到迈克尔·杰克逊曾经那样的高度。而且实际上,即使是你之前提到的那个YouTuber,我现在也在想,以前的名气或者成为内容创作者或音乐家,看起来是这样的,这种高高的天花板,然后你被记住一百年,就像迈克尔·杰克逊。而现在有了个性化的算法,它是不是变成了这样?更短、更浅,还有可能变大吗?
Original English
Speaker A: I have been thinking a lot about this, this idea of you said, you know, if you spent a billion dollars, you couldn't go as viral as that. And if someone came along and spent a ton of money today, they couldn't go as big as, let's say, Michael Jackson. When we go back through history, I was thinking about this, this idea because I watched the Michael Jackson documentary recently and he was at a level of fame that is I don't think we've ever seen since. And I think part of the reason why was because there was a constraint on the distribution channels back then. So in my house there was 20 albums over there, box set albums and Michael Jackson was like three of them. And then the other way that we could consume was the TV over there and there was like six channels and MTV was one of them and it was Michael Jackson all day. [snorts] In the world we live in now where there's my phone experience is a completely different phone experience to yours because of AI. AI is learning what I like and showing me my own little version of the world. I [snorts] wonder if it's possible to be as big as a Michael Jackson once was for anybody these days. And actually I, I even with the YouTuber you mentioned earlier, I wonder now if fame or or being a content creator or musician once looked like this, this sort of like high ceiling and then you're known for a hundred years like Michael Jackson. And now with algorithms that are personalized, does it now look like this? Shorter and shallower, is it possible to get big?
Speaker B: 你可以说,嗯,我没办法像迈克尔·杰克逊那么大,但另一方面,埃隆·马斯克就变得很大,对吧?就像有些东西确实会变得很大,对吧?公司会变大。OpenAI在短短几个月内从零做到了多少用户。所以,我认为你可以说的是,走红是关于在文明中击中一个共振频率,无论是艺术频率、政治频率还是技术频率。是的,有些东西会出现过剩。会有,嗯,我们拿Instagram来说吧,对吧?一方面,有十亿人在网上发布了糟糕的照片,但另一方面,也有人成功获得了,你知道的,800万粉丝,他们就是卡戴珊家族,你知道的,有这些人变得极其庞大,这是等式的另一面。
Original English
Speaker B: You could say, well, I can't get as big as Michael Jackson, but on the other hand, Elon Musk got big, right? Like, like there are things that get big, right? Companies get big. Open AI went from nothing to how many users in just a few months. So I, I think what you could say is going viral is about hitting a resonating frequency in the civilization whether it's an artistic frequency or it's a political frequency or it's a it's a technical frequency. Yeah, there are some things where there's going to be a glut. There's going to be, well, let's take Instagram, right? It's like on one hand a billion people have like bad photos posted online but on the other hand there are people that managed to get you know 8 million followers and they you know are the Kardashians you know you have these people that get massively big and that's the other side of the equation.
Speaker A: 所以我不太确定这一切会如何发展,除了有一点似乎很清楚,那就是人类创造力和创新仍然有空间。而如果你的目标是做出贡献,对吧?如果你正处于工作的黄金岁月,你想要升级这个世界,做出改变,并因为某件事而被记住,那么一个,一个……
Original English
Speaker A: So I don't really know how it all plays out except for the fact that it seems clear that there is room for human creativity and innovation. And if your goal is to make a contribution, right? If you're at, if you're in your working years where you want to upgrade the world and make a difference and be remembered for something, then a, a…
不要试图比机器人更努力
Michael Saylor: 这个原则其实非常简单:不要年复一年地做同样的事情,越来越努力,却对抗着现代自动化——你知道,就像对抗流行病一样,对吧?不要试图比机器人更努力地工作。这就像你在哀叹内容创作者有多难做。但让我提醒你,过去你要成为一名大学教授,每年教200个学生,教20年,你会觉得你一生的贡献就是触动了4000个人的思想。而现在你一秒钟就能触达4000人。明白吗?所以你在拿自己和下一个时代比较。但如果你回望历史,技术赋予了我们放大智力和放大创造力的能力,这是人类历史上前所未有的。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Pretty simple principle is: don't keep doing the same thing over and over, working harder and harder every year, fighting against the modern automation, you know, epidemic, right? Don't try to outwork the robots. It's like you're lamenting, you know, how difficult it is for a content creator. But let me remind you that it used to be you would go be a college professor and teach 200 students a year for 20 years and you would feel that your life contribution was 4,000 people whose minds you touched and now you get 4,000 people a second. Okay? So you're judging yourself against the next thing. But if you look back in time, technology has given us the ability to amplify our intellect and amplify our creativity in a way that is unprecedented in human history.
Steven Bartlett: 是的。我想,部分原因在于——我现在在想,我们是不是有点——技术说“好吧,你可以触达更多人了”,电视、广播,所有这些。而现在有了智能,它说“哦,我们可以精确地算出Michael想要什么”,所以我们开始生活在这些更小的回音室里。你的创意或你的内容要触达大量人群会变得更难,因为算法现在挡在中间,它们决定谁看到什么,而且它们是在为平台优化——我猜是平台对金钱的欲望。我觉得真正有趣的是——我过去几个月一直在琢磨的是——那些真正困难且稀缺的东西。实际上你可以说,一件事困难且稀缺,这两者是一回事,因为创造稀缺的东西本身也是困难的。就像你做的那款金融产品,地球上很少有人能创造出那个东西。我们不经营上市公司,我们没有那些信息等等。或者你提到的那个带你走进17世纪历史的YouTuber,那也是很难做到的。我有个理论:实际上,追求那些困难且稀缺的东西——比如让你今天来这里并不容易,所以那算是我的护城河;米歇尔·奥巴马来和我坐下来对谈,也仍然算是我的护城河——这才是我们应该瞄准的方向。你觉得这个理论怎么样?
Original English
Steven Bartlett: Yeah. I think I think in part it's I'm wondering now if we're kind of we technology said okay you can reach more people TV radio all these things and actually now with intelligence it's saying oh we can figure out exactly what Michael wants so we're starting to live in these smaller echo chambers where your creative idea or your creative piece of content reaching lots of people is going to become harder because the algorithms are now in the way and they're deciding who sees what um and they're optimizing for the the I guess the platform the platform's monetary desire. The thing that I think is really interesting and I've been mulling for the last couple of months is that that which is really really hard and scarce and actually you could say something being hard and scarce are are are the same cuz to create something scarce is also hard like you did with that financial instrument. Very few people on earth could have created that. We don't run public companies. We don't have the information etc. or even that YouTuber you mentioned who walks you through those uh the 1600s or whatever. That is very hard to do. I've theorized that actually pursuing that which is hard and scarce. Getting you to come here today is not easy. So that's kind of my moat. Michelle Obama coming and sitting down with me here is still kind of my moat. Um is is is what we should aim at. What do you think of that as a theory?
Michael Saylor: 我同意。假设你有一个企业,不管你现在做什么业务,正确做法是花大量时间与AI在一起,思考你能用哪些方式来升级和改进你创造的产品或服务,对吧?举个例子,过去你只能用英语做这件事,问题就是:那日语、中文、法语或者其他语言怎么办?困难的方式是你学20种语言,但然后你的嘉宾怎么办?我们怎么翻译?或者你花钱雇翻译——我们过去确实花钱雇翻译——但现在你可以让AI立刻把这个翻译成100种语言。问题是你应不应该这么做?我能不能增强它?有趣的是,当有人描述某件事时,你会说“让我们在那里放一个S曲线的图表”。然后下一步是:我能更好地营销它或分发它吗?再下一步是:我创造的东西十年后还会有价值吗?那么一百年后还会有价值吗?
Original English
Michael Saylor: I agree. Let's say you have a business, whatever your business is right now, the right thing to do is to spend an intense time with the AI considering what are all the ways you can upgrade and improve the product or the service you create, right? Uh, for example, like it used to be you do this in English and the issue is well what if what about Japanese or Chinese or French or whatever and you know the hard way is you learn 20 languages and you know but then how does your guest or we translate it or you hire you know we used to spend money to hire translators but now you could have the AI translate this into a 100 languages right now the question is should you or not can I enhance it right it's interesting when someone describes something, but you're like, let's just put up a chart of the S-curve there. And then the next step is, can I market it better or distribute it better? And the next step is, am I creating something that'll be valuable in a decade? Well, will it be valuable in a hundred years?
24个月的失败与突破
Steven Bartlett: 嗯,这大概是个好时机来提这件事。24个月前,我们正是这么开始的——那就是“有外星人”。不,不,不,开玩笑的。阿拉伯语版的我。是的。你问问自己,有多少做播客采访的人能提供那种质量的内容?我觉得你正在超越所有人——我不知道还有谁做到了。我也不知道。
Original English
Steven Bartlett: Well, this is probably a good time to mention this. 24 months ago, we started exactly that, which was there are aliens. No, no, no, no, no. Uh, Arabic me. Yeah. And ask yourself how many people that do podcast interviews offer that level of quality of content. And I think that you're I think you're outstripping like I don't know of anybody else that's done it. Neither do I.
Michael Saylor: 对。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Right.
Steven Bartlett: 我们差不多三年前开始,头24个月是一场惨痛的失败。所以你有数据科学家在我们办公室角落里失败了24个月,然后大约12个月前,我们第一次看到我们底层的翻译技术提升了,我们能让西班牙语的观看时长——[哼]——比英语更高。
Original English
Steven Bartlett: We started almost 3 years ago and for the first 24 months it was a tragic failure. So you had the data scientists in the corner of our office failing for 24 months and then about 12 months ago for the first time ever we saw that the translation technology underneath us had improved and that we could get the view duration in Spanish to be [snorts] higher.
Michael Saylor: 是的。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Yeah.
Steven Bartlett: 比英语还高。
Original English
Steven Bartlett: Than English.
Michael Saylor: 你觉得Jimmy Paige花了多少个月去掌握电吉他?
Original English
Michael Saylor: And how many months do you think Jimmy Paige spent trying to master the electric guitar?
Steven Bartlett: 不止24个月。
Original English
Steven Bartlett: More than 24 months.
Michael Saylor: 是的。是的。长得多。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Yeah. Yeah. A lot longer.
创业者的时间框架
Michael Saylor: 我给创业者的建议是:你要专注,你要坚持。如果你在不到四年内就成功了,那是你运气好。这是职业性的,你知道,如果花了你10年,那么4到10年之间是非常非常正常的。如果到了第10年你还没有成功,那你可能不适合这个行业。但你知道,你做的事情是完全合乎逻辑的。就像,AI会不会重塑这个行业?第一个问题是你能不能把产品做得更好?第二个问题是它值多少钱?对吧。
Original English
Michael Saylor: My advice to an entrepreneur is you focus, you commit. If you're successful in less than four years, you got lucky. It's pro, you know, if it takes you 10 years, well, between four and 10 years is is very very normal. If you haven't had success by the 10ear point, you're probably not cut out for the business. But you know what you're doing is it's totally logical. It's like, is AI going to remake this industry? The first issue is can you make the product better? And the second question is, what's it worth? Right.
Steven Bartlett: 对。你能做到。你能得到报酬吗?你知道,而且顺便说一句,即使你没得到报酬,我也会说你的观众注意力是有限的。就像我没有时间听每一个Lex Fridman、每一个Joe Rogan、每一个Diary of the CEO,以及接下来20个里的每一个。所以我会变得忠诚。我会成为那个给我提供最好内容的人的客户和粉丝。而且当然,如果我是葡萄牙语母语者[哼]或者俄语母语者,你一下子就跳到了最前面。
Original English
Steven Bartlett: Right. You can do that. Can you get paid? You know, and by the way, even if you didn't get paid, I would argue that your audience have limited attention span. It's like I don't have time to listen to every Lex Freriedman, every Joe Rogan, every Diary of the CEO, and every one of the next 20. And so, I'm going to become loyal. I'm going to become a customer and a fan of whoever serves me the best content. And certainly if I'm a native Portuguese speaker [snorts] or a native Russian speaker, you all of a sudden just leaped right to the top.
Michael Saylor: 这正好回到我说的困难与稀缺的观点,因为葡萄牙的人可能以前从未用葡萄牙语听过Michael Saylor。所以在稀缺性方面,这实际上是现在唯一一个长达两小时的、Michael Saylor用粤语和Steven对话的采访。所以我们是在竞争。我们有了那个——那就算是护城河了,对吧?嗯,那对你所有的嘉宾都变成了好处。你是我的分发渠道,把数字资本、数字赋权的信息传递到全世界,然后你的嘉宾就成了你的护城河。我认为对每一个企业来说,这都很清楚。你必须问这个问题:技术会不会蚕食我的业务或颠覆它?我是那个拥抱它、随之进化成长的人,还是我要对抗它?然后当然,你在和市场对话。比如,你所做的事情的伟大之处在于,如果你做了,你可以观察并看到它是如何运行的,YouTube是否真的扩大了你的触达范围,然后你可以看参与度,弄清楚你是否能从中变现,是否能转化,然后你调整它,对吧,然后修正。6个月或12个月可能就足以让你拥有一个永远持续的竞争优势,对吧?如果你领先所有人12个月——
Original English
Michael Saylor: This goes to my point about hard and scarce because people in in Portugal maybe have never heard Michael Sailor before in Portuguese. So in terms of scarce, it's actually the only interview now available that is 2 hours long of Michael Sailor talking in Cantonese with Steven, you know, and so that we then are competing. We have that's kind of the moat then, right? Well, that that becomes a benefit to all your guests. You're the distribution channel for me to send the message of digital capital, digital empowerment to the world and then your guest become your moat. I think that with every single business, it's pretty clear. You have to ask the question, is technology going to cannibalize my business or disrupt it? and am I going to be the one that embraces it and evolves and grows with it or am I going to fight it? And then of course you're in a dialogue with the market. For example, the great thing about what you've done is if you've done it, you can look and see how it runs and and whether YouTube actually expands your reach and then you can look at the engagement and and figure out whether or not you're able to monetize that, whether you're able to able to convert that and then you tweak it, right, and adjust and you're 6 months or 12 months can be enough that you have a lasting advantage forever, right? If you're 12 months ahead of everybody else
Steven Bartlett: 而且你在复利——
Original English
Steven Bartlett: and you're compounding in
Michael Saylor: 是的。它随着时间复利增长,然后也许他们永远追不上你。你知道,这就是每个企业的故事,对吧?那是福特汽车公司和标准石油的故事,是微软的故事,是Facebook的故事,是每个人的故事——你只需要专注、坚持,然后如果你足够好,不可避免地会发生的是,你的客户会让你成为赢家。世界需要有人做你做的事。就像,必须有人赢,对吧?需要有赢家。外面的观众想要你提供的东西。他们想走进客厅,弄清楚奥巴马在想什么,或者他们想听到马克·扎克伯格在想什么,他们需要有人把他们带进那个客厅。他们想让你来主持。需要有人做那份工作。你不必是完美的,也不必比历史上任何人都好。你需要比现在正在做这件事的人更好。或者你需要成为少数几个在做这件事的人之一,因为在那个点上,对吧,观众会来找你,嘉宾会来找你。你在创造一个市场,对吧?你是那个信息的做市商。真正的关键是知道你的价值主张是什么。待在你的车道上,你知道,不要试图在一个你不会成为世界最好的领域竞争。但另一方面,对吧,有一点很清楚的是,任何人都可以在两秒钟内拥有世界最好的东西,就在他们指尖。所以你不想成为那个——
Original English
Michael Saylor: Yeah. it compounds over time and then maybe they never catch you like that's you know and but that's the story of every business right that's that's the story of Ford Motor Company and Standard Oil that's the story of Microsoft it's the story of Facebook it's everybody's story which is you just have to focus commit and then if you're good enough invariably what happens is is your customers will make you the winner. The world needs someone to do what you do. Like someone had to has to win, right? There needs to be a winner. The audience out there wants they want what you do. They want they they want to walk into the living room and figure out what Obama was thinking or they want to hear, you know, what Mark Zuckerberg was thinking and they want someone to bring them into that living room. They want you to host them in. They need someone to do that job. You don't you don't have to be what perfect or better than anybody ever lived. You need to be better than the people that are currently doing it now. Or you need to be one of, you know, a handful of people that are that are doing it because at that point, right, the audience comes to you, the guests come to you. You're making a market, right? You're the market maker in that information. It's just the real key is know what your value proposition is. Stay in your lane, you know, don't don't try to compete in an area where you're not going to be the best in the world. But on the other hand, right, the the one thing that's pretty clear is that anybody can have the best in the world in like two seconds at their fingertips. And so you don't want to be the
聚焦单一领域,而非多面平庸
Speaker A: 第三,最好。你不想在很多事情上都很平庸。你要在某个领域做到出类拔萃。想清楚那一个领域是什么。然后也许你会有两百万粉丝,然后是两亿粉丝,对吧?然后最终,你知道,在一百年里,二十亿。你只需要拥有这个愿景。
Original English
Speaker A: Third, best. You don't want to be mediocre across a bunch of things. You want to be exceptional in one area. Figure out what that one area is. And then maybe you have two million followers, then 200 million followers, right? Then eventually, you know, over a 100 years, two billion. You just have to have this vision.
追求第一的代价:翻过山头,承受箭雨
Speaker B: 追求第一所伴随的一件事是,你要翻过山头,承受箭雨,就像那句老话说的。所以即使在我刚才展示给你的那个实验里——我们三年前开始的,试图弄清楚如何把多样性内容翻译成许多不同语言——听起来很简单。问题在于你会发现,西班牙语单词更长。所以西班牙语视频是3小时10分钟,而英语是3小时。就是3小时,然后视频要上线了,然后粤语呢?粤语单词多长?然后你发现,天哪,你还得同时把所有的缩略图和标题翻译成20种语言。这就是为什么你三年后还在做,而你原本以为只是一小时的活儿。但如果你再往远了看,还有一片我们尝试过但从未成功的其他东西的墓地。角落里还有我们跑过的另外90%的实验,什么效果都没有。我总是对团队说,每年有两件事定义了我们。而在我们的失败与实验团队里——这个名字就是这么叫的——我们试了60件事。
Original English
Speaker B: One of the things that comes with the pursuit of being first is you go over the hill, you take the arrows, as the phrase goes. And so even in that experiment that I just showed you that we started 3 years ago which was trying to figure out how we translate the diversity into lots of different languages. It sounds simple. Problem is you discover you go Spanish words are longer. So the video in Spanish is 3 hours 10 but in English it's 3 hours. It's just 3 hours and then the video is going to be up and then Canton how long is Cantonese words? And then you oh my god you have to then translate all the thumbnails and all the titles in 20 languages at the same time. That's why you end up three years in when you thought it was just a one hour job. But also, if you zoom out even further, there's this graveyard of other things we tried that never worked. There's this the other 90% of experiments we ran in the corner that did nothing. And it's I always say to the team, there's two things a year that define us. And of that, in our failure and experimentation team, which is literally what it's called, we tried 60 things.
Speaker A: 对。
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: 但其中有五个达标了,
Original English
Speaker B: But there's this, you know, five of them are met,
Speaker A: 两个是改变游戏规则的。所以在追求第一的最前沿,处理失败的态度,我觉得是人们谈论得不够的。
Original English
Speaker A: Two of them gamechanging. So the attitude of dealing with failure at the very forefront of trying to be first I think is something people don't talk about enough.
聚焦能量,守护时间:避免稀释性扩张
Speaker B: 聚焦你的能量,守护你的时间。仅仅因为你能做某件事,并不意味着你应该做那件事,对吧?大多数时候,人们失败的原因是他们在三十多岁时取得了成功,他们在某一件事情上成功了,然后突然间他们决定要做其他十件事,因为他们觉得自己什么都擅长,然后他们把注意力稀释成了十份。人们总是低估维护的义务,永远如此。所以,对,关于增长的正确解决方案是——我想把我正在做的事情做得更好一倍。如果我做十件事让每件事好10%,我可能就是在稀释和分散注意力。导致大多数企业失败的现象,就是稀释性的分心,或者稀释性的扩张。他们做了一件事,成功了,然后他们没有把精力投入进去让它变得更好更好更好更好,而是开始分叉、三叉,扩张,过度延伸到太多领域。就像那个拥有很棒餐厅的家伙,他开了第二家餐厅,然后有了37家连锁餐厅,结果全都烂透了,然后他说:“是啊,我记得那个人以前……”顺便说一句,没有一个失败的连锁餐厅老板不是从一家成功的餐厅起步的,
Original English
Speaker B: Focus your energy, guard your time. Just cuz you can do a thing doesn't mean you should do the thing. Right? Most of the time, the reason people fail is they get successful in their 30s and they're successful at one thing and it's like all of a sudden they've decided they're going to do 10 other things because they're good at everything and they dilute their focus in 10 ways. People always underestimate the maintenance obligation like always. And so I yeah, the right the right solution to growth is I would like to make whatever I'm doing twice as good. And if I do 10 things to make it 10% better, I'm probably diluting distracting the uh phenomena that causes most businesses to fail, it's a dilutive distractions or it's it's dilutive expansions. They do one thing, it works, and then instead of turning their energy in to make that better and better and better and better, they start to bifurcate and tricate and they expand and they over reach to too many areas. It's like the dude with the great restaurant and he's got the second restaurant and he's got a chain of 37 restaurants and they all suck and he's like, "Yeah, I remember the guy used to have there's no one by the way with a failed restaurant chain that wasn't a successful restaurant at scale one,
Speaker A: 对吧?你不会在有一家好餐厅之前就失败于37家、62家或437家连锁。但非常非常常见的是,人们认为他们可以像切饼干一样把这些东西复制出来,但你不能。所以你指出的这个难题是:我想要增长和进步,但我不想稀释和分心。这需要一种成熟,说:“我试过了,取得了一定的成功,但还不够。砍掉它,然后继续前进,因为它就是不会成功。”
Original English
Speaker A: Right? Like you didn't get to a failure of 37 or 62 or 437 until you had a good one. But it's very very common that people think that they can just cookie cutter these things out and you can't. And so the conundrum that you're putting your finger on is I want to grow and progress but I want to not dilute and distract. And that requires this maturity of saying, "I tried it, had a moderate success, but it's not enough. Kill it like and and and and move on because it's just not going to work."
长期主义:奠定基础,构建竞争优势
Speaker B: 你刚才说的让我想到两件事。第一是很多年轻人走到我面前,他们才刚开始他们的想法九个月,还没变富。所以他们看向那边,看到他们的朋友开始做CBD相关的东西。于是他们说,我觉得我需要进入CBD。所以他们的职业生涯看起来就像是在丛林中荡来荡去,抓住下一根树枝,松开上一根,从来没有真正朝着任何目标向上移动。另一件我在你说话时想到的事情是——我其实只是最近两个月才在琢磨这个想法——如果你采取长期的方法,你今天做出的基础性决策会创造巨大的竞争优势。举个简单的类比,如果你给我10秒钟来搭一座尽可能高的塔,我要做的就是这样,然后这样,然后试着做类似这样的事。仅仅因为时间的限制,它就是不稳定的。如果你给我10年和无限的积木,我会这样开始。
Original English
Speaker B: There's two things that came to mind there. The first is a lot of young people come up to me and they're 9 months into their idea and they're not rich yet. So they're they look over there and they see their friend has started a thing with uh CBD. And so they're like, I think I need to go into CBD. And so their careers kind of look like this sort of like swinging through the jungle, grabbing onto the next branch and letting go of the last and never really making um upward motion towards any goal. And then the other thing I thought about as you're speaking is I've been mulling this um really only over the last two months this idea that if you take a long-term approach to things, you make foundational decisions today that create huge competitive advantages. And the simple analogy I would give, if you gave me 10 seconds to make the highest possible tower that I can, what I'm going to do is I'm going to go like this and I'm going to go like this and I'm going to try and do something like this. And just by nature of the time constraint, it's unstable. If you gave me 10 years and infinite blocks again, I would start like this.
Speaker A: 我会把这块放在这里。我会把这块放在这里。我会把这块放在这里。然后我会建造一个更稳定的东西。当我看到一些伟大的创始人,而且当我看到你在你的公司——你知道,Micro Strategy——待了超过三十年,快四十年了,我想是——
Original English
Speaker A: I'd do this one here. I'll put this one here. I'll put this one here. And I'd build something more stable. And when I look at some of the great founders and also when I saw that you'd been at your, you know, micro strategy for more than three almost four decades, I think it was,
Speaker B: 我想,哦,你是这个世界上最稀有的长期主义者之一。而我这一代人中的大多数人,我们考虑自己的职业或正在做的事情,最多以五年为一个周期,然后我们就会辞职去做别的事情。初创公司的创始人,他们创业是为了卖掉,然后他们用胶带把公司勉强粘在一起,等着收购方来买。他们在签合同的时候很紧张,因为他们知道如果收购方仔细检查,他们会看到一些问题。但然后我看着埃隆,我想:“哦天哪,他去重建了一种全新的电池,然后建了充电网络,SpaceX花了二十年。”我的问题是关于这种长期主义,它是否创造了竞争优势?
Original English
Speaker B: I thought, oh, you're one of the rare long-termists in a world where most of my generation, we think about our career or what we're working on in like maximum 5year periods, then we're going to quit and go do something else. Startup founders, they build so they can sell and then they they they're sort of holding it together with tape as the acquirer comes to buy the thing. And they're nervous as the contract's being signed because they know if the the acquirer looks under the hood, they're going to see some. But then I look at Elon and I go, "Oh gosh, he went and rebuilt a brand new battery and then built the charging network and SpaceX took two decades." My question is about this long-termism and does it create a a competitive advantage?
Speaker A: 我认为埃隆像工程师一样思考,如果你看看他的企业,它们都是相互叠加的。比如,如果你弄清楚了如何发射火箭,并且你拥有最高的有效载荷能力和最低的入轨成本,那么你就有了优势。现在的问题是你想往轨道上放什么?我们放卫星,但什么样的卫星?星链卫星,因为那是每个人都想要的东西——互联网。所以突然间他在天空有了优势,然后你在这个优势上继续构建,你知道,还有电池技术,对吧?
Original English
Speaker A: I think Elon thinks like a like an engineer and uh if you if you look at his businesses, they're all built upon each other. Like if you figure out how to launch a rocket and you have the the highest payload capacity and the the the cheapest cost to orbit, then you've got an advantage. Now the question is what do you want to put in orbit? We put satellites, but what satellite like Starlink satellite because that's the thing everybody wants internet. And so all of a sudden he's got an advantage, you know, in the sky and then you build on that advantage and you know with battery technology, right?
Speaker B: 但他本可以去俄罗斯买一枚火箭然后直接发射上去,那才是短期做法。即使是特斯拉,他也可以从福特或——
Original English
Speaker B: But he could have gone to Russia and bought a rocket and just shot that up and that would have been the short term. Even with Tesla, he could have bought the batteries off Ford or
鹦鹉螺的启示:在原有基础上自然生长
Speaker A: 一个很好的自然例子是鹦鹉螺。如果你观察一种生物,它在建造外壳,螺旋式地向外扩展,基本上它是在自己的结构上不断叠加,这是自然界在压力下生长的解决方案。这也是斐波那契数列。如果你看斐波那契数列,如果我有这个,然后下一个结构在这里,下一个结构在那里,下一个结构在那里,我之前的业务的一部分是我下一个业务的基础。所以如果你的增长策略是在你已经拥有的东西的基础上构建,并以自然的方式扩展其功能,那就是自然稳定的增长。当你的第二个商业想法与第一个商业除了你同时拥有它们之外没有任何关联时,
Original English
Speaker A: One great natural example is like a chambered Nautilus. If you look at if you look at a creature and it's building a shell and it's spiraling out on itself and basically it keeps building on its own structure and it's nature's solution for growth under pressure. It's the Fibonacci sequence too. If you look at a Fibonacci sequence, if I have this and then the next structure is here and the next structure is there and the next structure is there, part of my previous business is the foundation for my next business. And so if you're thinking your growth strategy is to build on a foundation of something you already had and extend its functionality in a natural fashion, that's natural stable growth. When your second business idea is unrelated to your first business in any way other than the fact that you own both
Speaker B: 对,现在你就不是在稳定的基础上构建了。所以大多数成功的企业,最好的想法是,它们始于某个人主导一个市场。我非常擅长这个。
Original English
Speaker B: Right now, you're not building on a stable foundation. So most of these businesses that work and and the the best idea is that they start with someone dominating a market. I'm really good at this.
Speaker A: 马克·扎克伯格。
Original English
Speaker A: Mark Zuckerberg.
Speaker B: 对。现在,我能自然地添加什么,能利用我现有的业务来推广它?嗯,你是可口可乐。我们每天早上向英国87000家餐厅运送一托盘饮料。自然的延伸是什么?嗯,我可以在托盘上多放一种饮料,对吧?你需要利用你的分销优势、市场优势、技术优势来撬动。我认为你看看世界历史上所有伟大的企业——标准石油、福特汽车、波音、微软——它们做成功的事情通常是在自己的基础上构建,无论是忠诚的客户、分销网络,还是他们已经拥有的某种财务资产。另一种说法是,如果世界上没有其他人拥有
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah. And now what is the natural thing that I can add that I can use my existing business to to to maybe I'm marketing it? Well, you're Coca-Cola. Well, we deliver a pallet of drinks to 87,000 restaurants in the UK every morning. What's a natural extension? Well, I can put one more type of drink on the pallet, right? You need to use your distribution strength, your market strength, your technical strength in order to lever. I think you look at all the great businesses in the history of the world against Standard Oil, Ford Motor, Boeing, Microsoft, the things they did that worked were generally building on top of their foundation, either loyal customers or distribution or some financial asset they already had. Another way to say it is if there's no one else in the world that has
长期主义与护城河
主持人:如果一个公司比你们更适合做这件事,那你可能就处于有利位置,对吧?如果有另外97家公司在那个领域拥有比你更多的资产,那你得赌一把,赌这97家公司不会在你行动时全都反应过激。这就更难了。所以,这就是长期主义发挥作用的地方,因为要建立那种根本性的优势,从定义上讲,它必然需要时间。
Original English
Host: If a company is better situated to do this thing than you, then you're probably in good shape, right? If there are 97 other companies that have more assets than you in that space, well, you know, you got to bet that all 97 of them are not going to react to you when you do it. It's a bit harder. So, and that's where the long-termism comes in because to build that fundamental advantage, it by definition is going to take time.
主持人:好例子,亚马逊Prime,对吧?亚马逊开始提供免费送货,你知道,先是免费送货或者非常便宜的送货,然后是次日达,所有人都说:“你在亏钱。你在亏钱。你在亏钱。”他们这样亏钱亏了大概十年。然后到了某个节点,全国几乎每个人都成了亚马逊Prime会员,然后他们说:“好了,现在每月20美元,而不是10美元。”这相当于每月多10美元,乘以大概一亿人。然后人们说:“天哪,他们仅仅通过一份年度新闻稿就赚了120亿美元的现金流,这价值大约2500亿美元。”然后你会说:“什么?你们当时在干什么?”就像是在说,我们当时在建造护城河。这个故事在其他每件事上都不罕见。就像你首先相信你能建立你能建立的最大的分销渠道。人们会告诉你,他们会告诉你:“这个播客没什么未来。那个东西没什么未来。”然后会发生的是,99%的人会退出,因为他们不相信。而真正的信徒,那些不是被创造出来的人,不会适应。然后会有一些人说:“我相信,但我也知道存在威胁,但我要引导技术威胁,我要进化,我要以比任何人能想象的强一千倍的东西出现。”那是一个美丽的故事。
Original English
Host: Good example, uh, Amazon Prime, right? Where Amazon started giving free shipping, you know, first free shipping or very cheap shipping and one day shipping and everybody said, "Well, you're losing money. You're losing money. You're losing money." And they lost money doing this for like a decade. And then they got to some point where like everybody in the country was a member of Amazon Prime and they're like, "Okay, well now it's 20 bucks a month instead of 10 bucks a month." And it's like an extra $10 a month times like a hundred million people. And people like, "Oh my god, they just made 12 billion in one press release per year in cash flow and that's worth like $250 billion." And you're like, "What? What were you doing?" It's like we were building the moat. That story is not uncommon with every other thing. It's like you first believe you build the biggest distribution channel you can. People are going to tell you, "Well, there's no future to whatever the podcast. There's no future to something." And what'll happen is 99% of the people will drop out because they don't believe. And the true believers, the ones that are not created, won't adapt. And then there'll be some that'll say, "I believe, but I also know there's a threat, but I'm going to channel the technology threat, and I'm going to evolve, and I'm going to emerge as something a thousandx better than anybody could conceive." And that's a beautiful story.
给年轻人的十条规则
主持人:说到坚实的基础,你有十条给年轻成年人的规则,帮助他们在生活和事业上打下坚实基础。你在这里已经谈到了其中两条,就是集中你的精力,不要追逐每一个好主意。
Original English
Host: So, speaking of strong foundations, you have 10 rules for young adults building a strong foundation for their life and career. And you've talked about two of them here, which is focusing your energy and not chasing every good idea.
迈克尔·塞勒:第二条是守护你的时间。第三条是训练你的心智。与之相伴的还有锻炼你的身体。
Original English
Michael Saylor: The second one was guard your time. The third one is train your mind. And with that you've got train your body.
迈克尔·塞勒:你知道这其中的有趣故事。我被邀请去参加法国里维埃拉一位亿万富翁的鸡尾酒会,在一个漂亮的房子里。我到了之后走进派对,以为就是去社交一下。然后另一位亿万富翁出现了,他说:“你知道吗,迈克,我刚有了一对双胞胎,一个男孩一个女孩。我正在四处走动,向我所有的朋友征求给他们的建议。我希望你写一些建议,让我可以在他们21岁生日时给他们。”他有一本书,实际上他正在为他的孩子们收集建议,准备在他们作为年轻人过21岁生日时送给他们。于是我坐下来,想啊想啊想,然后我说:“专注你的心智,守护你的时间,训练你的心智。你必须学习一些东西,对吧?你必须学习阅读、写作、算术。你实际上必须培养一个文化基础。所以,就像接受教育,然后锻炼你的身体,因为如果你身体虚弱,你撑不下去,对吧?你无法生存。然后,独立思考。世界上每个人都想给你编程,让你相信并去做他们想让你做的事。你必须保持清醒的头脑,认识到那是不对的。仅仅因为我认识的每个名人、富人、漂亮的人都告诉我这是对的,并不意味着它就是对的。你需要自己决定,独立思考,然后筛选你的朋友,因为你知道,你成为你周围人的样子。如果你周围都是积极、鼓舞人心、有才华的人,你会成为最好的自己。如果你周围都是消极、愤世嫉俗、失败的人,他们会希望你失败,或者他们不会激励你成功,他们会把你拖垮。所以,筛选完朋友之后,筛选你的环境,对吧?让它成为一个快乐的地方,让你可以工作或生活。你知道,世界并没有说你必须待在黑暗丑陋的环境中。在那之后,信守你的承诺。归根结底,人们会记得你是否没有信守承诺。所以,你告诉某人你要做某件事,就去做,对吧?如果你信守承诺,你会发现那些人就是投资你的人。他们提升你。他们让你成功。他们可能是你生与死的区别,或者是你成功与失败的区别。最终,你知道,我们都处于彼此的关系之中,对吧?没有人强大到可以轻视任何其他人。我们都需要彼此。最后,保持愉快和建设性。坏事情发生并不重要。关键是人们想和一个愉快、快乐、有建设性的人一起工作。他们想和那样的人建立关系。所有这些都只是度过人生的基本原则。然后最后一点是升级世界。如果你有一个计划,如果你有一个升级世界的使命,你会对自己感觉更好。你每天起床,你有一个使命,你有事情要做。比如,我的使命是什么?你知道,我在传扬数字赋能的福音,对吧?中本聪创造了这种经济财产,对吧?他在人类历史上第一次赋予了80亿人经济赋权。我们创造了世界上第一种完美的货币。我们创造了,你知道,数字能源、数字物质、数字财产,对吧?作为人类,借助技术,我们可以比过去强大一千倍。我纵观整个人类历史,我看到的是一个苦难的故事。你知道,人们为什么会死?缺乏干净的水,缺乏干净的空气,缺乏干净的食物,缺乏干净的钱。我们想要什么?我们想永远活着。我们想永远快乐地活着。
Original English
Michael Saylor: You know the funny story of that is I was invited to a cocktail party of a billionaire on the French Riviera in a beautiful home. And I showed up and I walked into the party think I was going to hang out and another billionaire showed up and he said, "You know, Mike, I just had twins, a boy and a girl. And I'm walking around asking all of my friends for advice for them. And I want you to like write some advice for them that I can give to them on their 21st birthday." And he's got this book where he's actually collecting advice for his children to give them on their 21st birthday as young adults. So I sit down and I think think think and I'm like, "Focus your mind, guard your time, and train your mind. You got to learn to you got to learn something, right? You got to learn reading, writing, arithmetic. You have to actually develop a cultured base. So, it's like get an education and then train your body like because if you're weak, you're not going to make it, right? You're not going to survive. And then think for yourself. Everybody in the world wants to program you to believe to do something they want you to do. And you have to have the presence of mind to think that's not right. Just because everybody that I know and famous, rich and beautiful people tell me it's right doesn't make it right. You need to decide think for yourself and then curate your friends because you become who you surround yourself with and if you surround yourself with positive inspirational talented people, you'll be the best person version of yourself. And if you surround yourself with negative, cynical, failing people, they're going to want you to fail or they're not going to inspire you to succeed and they'll bring you down. And so after curate your friends, curate your environment, right? Like make it a happy place where you can work or you can live. And you know, the world didn't say you had to be in the dark in an ugly situation. And after that, keep your promises. At the end of the day, people remember if you didn't keep your promise. So you tell someone you're going to do something, do it, right? If you keep your promises, you'll find those are the people that invest in you. They uplift you. They make you successful. They may be the difference between life and death or the difference between success and failure for you. And ultimately, you know, we're all in relationships with each other, right? And no one is so powerful that they can afford to take anybody else for granted. We all need each other. And finally, stay cheerful and constructive. It doesn't matter whether bad things happen. The point is people want to come to work with someone that's cheerful and happy and constructive. They want to be in a relationship with that person. All those are just basic principles to get through life. And then the final point is upgrade the world. If you have a plan, if you're on a mission to upgrade the world, you're going to feel better about yourself. You get up every day, you have a mission, you have something to do. Like what is my mission? You know, I'm preaching the gospel of digital empowerment, right? Satoshi created this economic property, right? He gave economic empowerment to 8 billion people for the first time in human history. And we created the world's first perfect money. We created, you know, digital energy, digital matter, digital property, right? We can be a thousandx more as humans with technology than we were. I look through all human history and I see it's a story of misery. You know, why do people die? Lack of clean water, lack of clean air, lack of clean food, lack of clean money. What do we want? We want to live forever. We want to live happily forever.
永生与使命
主持人:你想永远活着吗?
Original English
Host: Do you want to live forever?
迈克尔·塞勒:我想尽可能活得久,你知道,有建设性地活着并做出贡献。如果我能保持投入和活力,那么是的,当我不能再做出贡献的时候,那么我会优雅地离开。
Original English
Michael Saylor: I want to live as long as I can live, you know, constructively and make a contribution. If I can be engaged and vital, then yeah, at the point that I can no longer make a contribution, then I will move on gracefully.
主持人:但如果现在你面前有一个按钮,按下它保证你能永生,你会按吗?
Original English
Host: But if there was a button in front of you now and pressing it guaranteed you immortality, would you press it?
迈克尔·塞勒:我想会的。我猜会的。那你为什么不把更多的精力投入到长寿研究上呢?人们也问过埃隆同样的问题。
Original English
Michael Saylor: I think so. I suppose so. Why aren't you then committing more of your efforts to longevity? People ask Elon the same question.
主持人:我认为这个星球上有80亿人,有很多我尊敬的人比我更有资格去追求那个使命。
Original English
Host: I think there's 8 billion people on the planet and there are many people that I respect that are much more qualified to pursue that mission than me.
主持人:而你选择集中精力去做、并成为其领先声音的事情——我关注你很多很多年了——你知道,当比特币价格下跌时,有时我需要一个心理治疗师来提醒我为什么投资了比特币,多年来那个人就是你。而当它上涨时,值得称赞的是,你对此始终如一。你知道,我看着你说话,我想这家伙要么是疯得离谱,要么是个天才。有时候很难分辨。这又回到了你之前说的,人们一开始会说你是疯子,然后你会被证明是对的。从历史上看,你确实被证明是对的。如果你从你开始倡导比特币的时候拉远来看,比特币现在在下跌。所以,我们又回到了恐惧之中。人们又害怕了。有趣的是,几个月前它上涨的时候,每个人都想:“天哪,这将是货币的未来”,现在它跌了。每个人都确信它一直是个庞氏骗局,它完了。我想,为了给普通人简化这件事,你借了很多债去买越来越多的比特币。这是准确的吗?
Original English
Host: And the thing that you've chosen to focus your efforts on and become the leading voice on and I've watched you for many many many years is I've you know when Bitcoin comes down in price and sometimes I need a bit of a therapist to remind me of why I've invested in Bitcoin and that person has been you over the years. And then when it's up, you know, you're to your credit, you're consistent about it. And that is, you know, I have watched you and talk, I think this guy must be he's either like batshit crazy or a genius. And it's sometimes hard to tell. And it goes back to what you were saying earlier when people will say you're crazy at first and then you'll be proven right. Now, historically, you've been proven right. If you zoom out from when you started advocating for Bitcoin, Bitcoin is down right now. So, again, we're back into fear. People are scared again in there. It's funny what happens because when it was going up a couple of months ago, everyone thought, "Oh my god, this is going to be the future of money and now it's down." Everyone is like convinced that it was always a Ponzi scheme and it's done. You've got a I guess trying to simplify this for average people. You've taken a lot of debt out to buy more and more and more and more and more Bitcoin. Is that accurate?
迈克尔·塞勒:我想我们大概有65亿美元的可转换债券和150亿美元的优先股在外流通。而我们正坐拥……
Original English
Michael Saylor: I guess we've got about $6.5 billion of convertible debt and $15 billion of preferred stocks outstanding. and we're sitting on top
卖出比特币的真相:打破市场误解
主持人: 目前公司管理着大约580亿美元的资产。所以,我们已经筹集了大约650亿美元的资金来购买比特币,但其中大部分是债务。
Original English
Host: ...of about $58 billion of assets right now. So, we have raised about $65 billion in capital to buy Bitcoin, but most of it was in debt.
迈克尔·塞勒: 好的。在650亿美元中,大部分情况下,我们通过股权和部分债务筹集了资金来购买比特币。我们一直这样做,是因为我们想把650亿美元的资金和能量注入到这个生态系统中。所以,我们是在用资本为生态系统提供动力。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Okay. Of the 65 billion, for the most part, we've raised capital with equity and some debt in order to buy Bitcoin. And we've been doing that because we wanted to pump $65 billion of capital of money of energy into the ecosystem. So, we're powering the ecosystem with capital.
主持人: 每个人都在推测——我在我的时间线上看到一些我关注的人推测——比特币的价格要跌到多惨,你才会陷入麻烦,因为你……
Original English
Host: Everyone theorizes, I've seen a few people on my timeline that I follow theorize how bad it would have to get for Bitcoin in terms of price for you to be in trouble because you...
迈克尔·塞勒: 比特币就算跌到每枚5000美元,我们相对于债务仍然是超额抵押的。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Bitcoin could fall to $5,000 a coin, we would still be over collateralized against the debt.
主持人: 你还是会没事的。
Original English
Host: You'd still be fine.
迈克尔·塞勒: 是的。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Yeah.
主持人: 另一件人们经常推测的事情——我做了评论分析,想弄清楚人们想从你这里听到什么——就是你卖掉了一些比特币。你被问到这个问题好几次了。我知道你最近卖掉了一些比特币,而此前你告诉很多人也许要持有他们的比特币。人们想知道你为什么卖掉比特币。
Original English
Host: And the other thing people theorize a lot, and again, I did a comment analysis to figure out what people wanted to hear from you, is you sold a bit of Bitcoin. You've been asked this a few times. I know you sold a bit of Bitcoin recently after telling a lot of people maybe to hold on to their Bitcoin. People want to know why you sold the Bitcoin.
迈克尔·塞勒: 好的。那么,让我们先说明第一点。唯一一个比我卖出比特币更少的人就是中本聪。中本聪从未卖出过那一百万枚比特币。我们公司持有84.7万枚比特币。所以我们买入更多,持有的也比除中本聪以外的任何人都多。而中本聪已经不活跃了。所以,如果我们未来几年继续这样下去,我们很有机会在卖出比特币的数量上永远不超过中本聪。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Okay. Well, so let's make the first point. The only person that's never sold more Bitcoin than me, Satoshi, is Satoshi. Satoshi never sold a million one Bitcoin. Our company has 847,000 Bitcoin. And so we bought more and we're holding it more than anybody other than Satoshi. And Satoshi is not active. So we have a reasonable chance of never selling more Bitcoin than Satoshi if we just keep at it for the next few years.
主持人: 嗯,我说过的是——抱歉,我应该展示一下这个。这就是为什么会有“卖肾”这个说法。你说过“如果必须的话就卖个肾,但保留比特币”。我过去六年里每天都在不间断地开展一场运动,来推广和倡导比特币作为长期价值储存手段,对吧?我想说的是,如果你有一笔未来四年内不需要用的钱,而你的选择是投资标普500、房子、私营公司、大豆、货币市场还是债务工具,我认为比特币是最好的,对吧?我认为比特币是数字资本。它将成为最好的长期资本资产。那么,你为什么卖掉比特币而不是卖掉你的肾呢?
Original English
Host: Um what I've said is, sorry I should probably show this. This is why there's a kidney. You said sell a kidney if you must but keep the Bitcoin. I have waged a campaign non-stop every day for six years to promote and advocate Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, right? And what I would say is if you have money that you don't need for the next four years and your choice is do I invest it in the S&P or a house or a private company or soybeans or money markets or debt instruments, I think that Bitcoin is the best, right? I think the Bitcoin is digital capital. It's going to be the best long-term capital asset. And uh, you know, so why did you sell the Bitcoin instead of your kidney?
迈克尔·塞勒: 是的。嗯,我们几周前卖掉了一些比特币,因为市场上有一种说法或信念,认为我们公司已经与比特币形成了系统性的整合,或者说对比特币如此重要,以至于我们永远不能卖出;如果我们卖出,比特币就会归零,我们的股票也会归零。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Yeah. Um, we sold some Bitcoin a few weeks ago because there was a narrative or a belief in the market that our company had become so systemically integrated or important to Bitcoin that we could never sell and if we sold, Bitcoin would go to zero and our stock would go to zero.
主持人: 因为你拥有比特币总供应量的4%。
Original English
Host: Because you own 4% of the total supply of Bitcoin.
迈克尔·塞勒: 是的。因为我们拥有4%,因为我们是世界上最大的比特币买家。所以第一种情绪是:如果他们不继续买入,比特币永远不会成功。第二种情绪或信念,嗯,误解是:如果我们卖出,就会让比特币崩盘,也会让公司崩盘。正因为如此,做空者和市场上的某些人采取了这样的立场:我们拥有的550亿美元比特币一文不值。于是我们就有了这种无知的、怀疑的看法,认为公司所有资产都毫无价值。因为公司资产毫无价值,我们就不会支付股息。因为我们不会支付股息,信贷就会归零,股权也会归零,公司会倒闭,比特币也会失败。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Yeah. Because we own 4% because we're the biggest buyer. We're the biggest buyer of Bitcoin in the world. So the first sentiment was well Bitcoin will never succeed if they don't keep buying. And the second sentiment or belief uh misconception was if we sell it'll crash Bitcoin and it'll crash the company. And because of that short sellers and and certain people in the market took the position that the $55 billion of Bitcoin we own was worth nothing. And so what we had was this ignorant uh skeptical notion that all the company's assets were worthless. And because the company's assets were worthless, we wouldn't pay our dividends. And because we wouldn't pay our dividends, the credit would go to zero, the equity would go to zero, the company would fail, and Bitcoin would fail.
迈克尔·塞勒: 我们说,好吧,比特币每天的交易量是200亿或更多,而我们持有550亿。如果我们只占市场的0.01%,我们仍然可以履行所有义务,而且这不会改变比特币的价格。但没人相信我们。所以,如果你想让人们相信你能做某件事,你就必须去做那件事。如果你告诉我你现在能做后空翻,但我说你做不了,那么某个时候你必须做那个后空翻,对吧?尤其是如果我告诉你,如果你做不了后空翻,我就把你扔进监狱。
Original English
Michael Saylor: And we said, well, Bitcoin is trades 20 billion a day or more, and we've got 55 billion of it. And if we were 0.01% of the market, we could still meet all of our obligations and it's not going to change the price of Bitcoin. But no one believed us. So if you want people to believe that you can do a thing, you have to do the thing. If you told me you could do a backflip right now, but I said you can't at some point you have to do the backflip, right? Especially if I tell you that I'm going to throw you in jail if you can't do a backflip.
主持人: 谁跟你说的?
Original English
Host: Who told you that?
迈克尔·塞勒: 嗯,这正是市场上正在发生的事情。市场的立场是这家公司一文不值。股票要归零了。比特币要归零了,因为他们不能卖。对吧?所以,如果我们要捍卫比特币,就像我们必须证明我们偶尔能卖出它一样,对吧?所以我们正在做的是,我们在商业化数字信贷市场。如果你有价值10亿美元的比特币,而他们相信它值10亿,你就可以卖出2亿美元的信贷,然后如果他们认为如此,你就能发展业务。如果他们不相信比特币值任何钱,你就不能,而你卖出那2亿美元的信贷,信贷就一文不值,公司也一文不值。所以我们陷入了厄运循环,或者说市场陷入了这个厄运循环。嗯,这种负面的做空——我不知道——几乎像是一种精神病态,像过度换气一样,说最大的比特币买家不能卖,如果他们卖了比特币就会失败。而我们需要做的是证明如果我们卖出比特币,它不会失败。所以当我们卖出比特币时,价格是59000美元,然后它反而上涨了。所以我们打破了那个误解。我们打破了那个叙事。事实证明,我们的盈亏平衡点大约是3.2%。所以如果比特币升值3.2%,我们就可以通过卖出比特币永远支付股息。但你可以想象,如果你是做空者,你会说:“好吧,你不能卖比特币。”哈哈,因为比特币会失败。所以他们想说信贷一文不值,因为你不会卖比特币。所以打破这个循环的方法就是你卖出比特币。现在你可以证明信贷实际上是优质信贷。我们可以永远支付股息。现在信贷投资者……
Original English
Michael Saylor: Well, that's exactly what's going on in the market. The market's position was the company is worthless. The stock is going to zero. Bitcoin is going to zero because they can't sell. Right? So if we want to defend Bitcoin like we have to prove that we can sell it on occasion, right? So what we're doing is we're commercializing the market in digital credit. And if you have a billion dollars of Bitcoin and they believe it's worth a billion, you can sell $200 million of credit and then you can grow the business if they believe that. If they don't believe that the Bitcoin is worth anything, you can't and you sell the 200 million of credit, the credit's worthless and the company's worthless. And so we were in a doom loop or the market was in this doom loop. uh this negative short I don't know like a a psychosis almost like hyperventilating saying that the largest buyer of Bitcoin can't sell it and if they do sell it Bitcoin will fail and what we needed to do was demonstrate that if we sold Bitcoin it wouldn't fail. So when we sold the Bitcoin it was 59,000 and it traded up. And so we broke that misconception. We broke that that narrative. It turns out that the break even point for us is about 3.2%. So if Bitcoin appreciates 3.2%, we can pay the dividends forever by just selling the Bitcoin. But you can imagine if you're a short seller, you say, "Well, you can't sell the Bitcoin." Haha, because Bitcoin will fail. And so they want to say that the credit is worthless because you won't sell the Bitcoin. So the way to break that cycle is you sell the Bitcoin. Now you can illustrate that the credit is actually good credit. We can pay the dividends forever. And now the credit investors...
主持人: 不用卖出更多比特币。
Original English
Host: Without having to sell more Bitcoin.
迈克尔·塞勒: 现在,这一切的重点是,我们一直在卖出股权来支付信贷的股息。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Now the whole point of this was we were selling equity in order to pay the dividend on the credit.
主持人: 是的。
Original English
Host: Yeah.
迈克尔·塞勒: 而做空者采取的立场是,你会一直卖股权直到股票归零,因为你不能卖比特币。
Original English
Michael Saylor: And the short sellers took the position that you're going to sell the equity until the stock goes to zero because you can't sell the Bitcoin.
主持人: 是的。
Original English
Host: Yeah.
主持人: 那你实际上怎么打破这个呢?好吧,你必须说,好吧,我们可以卖比特币。
Original English
Host: So how do you actually get how do you break that? Well, you have to say, well, we can sell the Bitcoin.
迈克尔·塞勒: 而且你卖出了足够的比特币来支付股息。所以我们卖出了足够的比特币来支付股息,以证明我们可以用比特币为股息提供资金,这意味着我们不必卖出股权;如果我们不必卖出股权,那么股权就会相对于比特币溢价交易,理性交易,然后信贷也会理性交易。所以,向股权投资者和信贷投资者展示你可以用比特币为公司提供动力,这对他们都有利。
Original English
Michael Saylor: And you sold enough Bitcoin to pay the dividend. So we sold enough Bitcoin to pay the dividends to prove that we could fund the dividends with Bitcoin which means we don't have to sell the equity and if we don't have to sell the equity then the equity trades at a premium to Bitcoin trades rationally and then the credit trades rationally. So it was a benefit to the equity investors and the credit investors to show that you can power the company with Bitcoin.
主持人: 你打算卖出更多吗?
Original English
Host: Do you intend to sell more?
迈克尔·塞勒: 这不是我们的主要策略。所以,如果普通股相对于底层资产有溢价,那么我们可能会用普通股来融资;但如果普通股曾经折价交易,或者相对于比特币资产折价交易,那么你就会卖出比特币来保护普通股。
Original English
Michael Saylor: It's not our primary strategy. So if the common stock trades at a premium to the underlying assets then probably we fund with the common stock but if the common stock ever sells at a discount or trades at a discount to the Bitcoin assets then you sell Bitcoin in order to protect the common stock.
主持人: 那你认为比特币在货币价值方面会走向何方?就目前一枚比特币而言,你说它大概是68000还是多少?
Original English
Host: And where do you think Bitcoin's going in terms of monetary value in terms of one Bitcoin currently? What you said it's what 68,000 or something?
迈克尔·塞勒: 我认为未来20年它每年大约升值30%。对吧。然后它会放缓到每年大约升值20%。
Original English
Michael Saylor: I think it appreciates about 30% a year for the next 20 years. Right. And then it'll slow down to being appreciative about 20% a year.
主持人: 所以你认为无论你是谁,它都是真正最适合投入资金的最佳资产。
Original English
Host: So you think it's the best asset to put your money in really really irrespective of who you are.
迈克尔·塞勒: 另一种说法是,我认为它的表现会跑赢标普500指数1.5到2倍。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Another way to say it is I think it outperforms the S&P index by a factor of 1.5 to two.
主持人: 谁不应该投资比特币?
Original English
Host: Who shouldn't invest in Bitcoin?
迈克尔·塞勒: 适合投资比特币的人是长期资本投资者。所以,如果你有一定数量的钱,未来四年内不需要用到,理想情况下是10年,那么你应该从你的资本投资组合中拿出一部分来购买比特币。如果你相信它,如果你是比特币极端主义者,如果你花100小时研究它,你会买很多。如果你不确定,你可能会把投资组合分散到一些房地产、一些股权、一些其他长期资产和一些比特币上。不应该买它的人是那些12周内就需要把钱拿回来的人。
Original English
Michael Saylor: The right people to invest in Bitcoin are long-term capital investors. So if you have a certain amount of money and you don't need it for the next four years and ideally 10 years, then you would take a portion of your capital investment portfolio and buy Bitcoin. And if you believe in it, if you're a Bitcoin maxi, if you spend 100 hours studying it, you'd buy a lot. And if you're not sure, you'd probably diversify that portfolio across, you know, some real estate, some equity, some other long-term assets, and some Bitcoin. The people that shouldn't buy it are people that need the money back in 12 weeks.
主持人: 那像普通的25岁年轻人呢?嗯,我从你的一些采访中看到的一个问题是,如果一个……
Original English
Host: What about like a regular 25-year-old? Um, one of the questions that I saw emerging from some of the interviews you've done is if a...
投资建议与告别
主持人: 一个普通的年轻人,现在只有几百美元可以投资,为什么他们还要费心去买华尔街的产品,比如股票或公司股票,而不是直接买一个真正的比特币自己持有呢?
Original English
Host: A normal young person has a few hundred to invest today, why should they bother with Wall Street products like stocks or corporate stocks instead of just buying a real Bitcoin and holding it themselves?
Michael Saylor: 是的,我认为如果你有长期投资的资金,比特币的表现会是标准普尔指数的两倍。但对于那个25岁的年轻人来说,把钱花在能帮助他们训练思维的东西上不是更聪明吗?就像你说的,如果你只有100美元——
Original English
Michael Saylor: Yeah, I think if you have money to invest for the long term, you're going to get double the performance from BTC that you would get from like the S&P index. But for that 25-year-old, would it not be smarter for them to spend it on something that's going to help them train their mind? Like you said, if you only have $100—
主持人: 我不会去花50万美元买一个昂贵的大学教育,但我会每月花20美元买一个人工智能订阅。所以,是的,你绝对应该花必要的钱去获取超级Grock或专业版。无论是每月20美元还是200美元,每月200美元是我愿意花的最高上限,每月20美元可能是我愿意花的最低下限。但你看,到那个程度我们谈的其实就是你的Netflix订阅费了。
Original English
Host: I wouldn't go spend $500,000 on an expensive, you know, university education, but I would spend 20 bucks a month on an AI subscription. So, yeah, you should definitely spend money necessary to get the super Grock or the Pro or the professional edition. Whether it's, you know, $20 a month or $200, $200 a month is the most I would spend. $20 a month is probably the least I would spend. But look, we're talking about your Netflix subscription at that point.
Michael Saylor: 但当你做完这些之后,接下来要谈的就是你应该投资什么。我认为你应该投资数字资本,因为你可以带着它去世界任何地方。如果你投资Airbnb或房地产,你就会被锁定在某个城市,你没法带着它旅行。它维护成本高,风险也大。如果你投资个股,你会非常焦虑,因为公司来来去去,你得选对股票。大多数股票会失败,但有些会成功。但这确实更具挑战性。我认为归根结底,如果你有一个流动性投资组合,作为一个传统资本投资者,你会投资标准普尔指数吗?如果你是一个数字资本或技术资本投资者,你会投资比特币吗?
Original English
Michael Saylor: But after you've done that, then you're talking about what you ought to be invested in. I think that you ought to be invested in digital capital because you can take it with you anywhere in the world. If you invest in an Airbnb or real estate, you know, you're locked into a certain city, you can't travel with it. It's high maintenance. There's a lot of risk. If you invest in an individual stock, you have a lot of anxiety because they come and they go and you got to pick the right stock. And most stocks will fail, but some will succeed. But it really is much more challenging. I think really it comes down to if you have a liquid portfolio, you know, are you going to invest in like the S&P index if you're a conventional capital investor? Are you going to invest in Bitcoin if you're a digital or, you know, a technology capital investor?
传统问题:你相信但99%的人还不信的事
主持人: Michael,我们有一个结束传统,最后一位嘉宾会给下一位嘉宾留一个问题,而他们不知道是在给谁留。留给你的问题是:有什么事情是你相信的,但可能你还没有充分谈论过,而且你认为世界上99%的人还不相信?
Original English
Host: Michael, we have a closing tradition where the last guest leaves a question for the next guest not knowing who they're leaving it for. And the question left for you is what is one thing you believe that maybe you haven't talked about enough that you think likely 99% of the world don't yet believe.
Michael Saylor: 如果我看我的人生,想想对我产生真正影响的事情,那是在我接受了完整的大学教育之后。我后来回去自学了两个主题。一个是实用的应用统计学,就是Nassim Taleb写的那类东西,比如《随机漫步的傻瓜》、《非对称风险》和《黑天鹅》。你要怎么区分有意义的东西和只是误导性的随机数据?那对我来说价值极其巨大。我想说,任何没读过那些书的人,可能都应该去读,并且痴迷于应用统计学。这是人工智能无法替你做的事情——当你一边在手机上打字一边要决定要不要过马路的时候。你知道,AI不会给你一个永不停歇的实时常识流,告诉你该不该做那件事。所以我认为那真的很重要。
Original English
Michael Saylor: If I look at my life and I think about something that's had a real impact on me, it's after I got a full education, you know, from college, I eventually went back and I studied two topics on my own. One like practical applied statistics, all the stuff that Nicholas Taleb wrote like Fooled by Randomness and Skin in the Game and The Black Swan. You know, how do you know the difference between something that's meaningful and something that's just misleading random data? That was profoundly valuable to me. And I would say, you know, anybody that hasn't read all of those books probably ought to go read those books and obsess over applied statistics. That's the one thing the AI will not be able to do for you when you have to decide whether to cross the street while you're typing on your phone. You know, the AI will not give you a neverending real time stream of common sense to tell you should or should not do that thing. And so I think that that's really important.
Michael Saylor: 我离开学校、有了一生的经验之后做的第二件事,就是回去读了杜兰特的《文明的故事》。每一页,11卷,14000页。你在学校读到的大部分历史都是简写版。但如果你把整部读完——我推荐它,是因为我觉得那是一段相当均衡的历史,涵盖了艺术、文化、政治、技术和军事,不只是军事史,也不只是政治史,而是一部非常综合的历史。当你成年后回去通读它,它会让你对人类产生一种深刻的欣赏,给你很多智慧。你会发现,所有你以为自己在发现的东西,在15世纪的俄罗斯就已经被发现过了,然后又被重新发现。大多数别人告诉你“这是新的、深刻的”东西,其实已经连续新过一百次、一千次了,只是每次换了一种讲法而已。
Original English
Michael Saylor: And the second thing that I did after I left school and after a lifetime of experience is like I went back and I just read the Story of Civilization by Durant. Every page, 11 volumes, 14,000 pages. Most of the history that you read in school, it's the CliffNotes. But if you go through the entire thing, and I recommend that one just cuz I think it was a pretty well balanced history that covered art and culture and politics and technology and military, it's not just military history, not just political history, but it was, you know, all a very synthetic history. When you go back and you read it all as an adult, then it gives you such a profound appreciation for humanity and it gives you so much wisdom. And what you'll find is all these things you think you're discovering, they got discovered in like 15th century Russia and then they got rediscovered, you know, like most of these things that people tell you or this is new and profound. Oh, it was new and profound a hundred times in a row or a thousand times in a row. It was just the story was told a different way each time.
主持人: 给我举个例子,有什么事情我们以为是新的,但历史告诉你其实不是?
Original English
Host: Give me an example of a thing that we think is new, but history tells you—
Michael Saylor: 也许就是货币贬值这件事。当尼克松放弃金本位时,货币开始贬值,那是1971年发生的事。事实是,从那时起,美元开始以更快的速度走弱。但事实证明,历史上每个地方的每一种货币都被贬值过。我真正想说的是,我认为人们以为自己在大学里学到了东西,但其实现在回去重新学数学,尤其是应用统计学,并不晚。回去重新学历史也不晚。作为成年人,你总是能更好地欣赏这些东西。
Original English
Michael Saylor: Maybe the fact that currency started getting debased when Nixon went off the gold standard, you know, and what happened in 1971 or whatever. And the truth of the matter is that was the point at which the US dollar started weakening at a much more rapid rate. But it turns out that every currency everywhere in history has been debased. My point here really is I think people think that they learned stuff in college, but really it's not too late to go back and relearn math, especially applied statistics. And it's not too late to go back and relearn history. And as an adult, you always appreciate those things much better.
主持人: 是的,这几乎就像教育浪费在年轻人身上,因为你没有足够的人生经验去欣赏你读到的东西。而且你知道,他们还会对你读到的很多东西进行概括、删减和审查。如果你只是回去说“我要把整部完整地读完”,还有很多其他东西你也可以作为成年人去读完整的历史。我认为那会让你成为更好的人、更好的商人、更好的领导者。它还能帮你克服那种“我是人类历史上第一个遇到这个问题的人”的傲慢。你会发现,不,你不是。而让人有力量的是,别人遇到过,而且这是他们解决问题的方式。那对你来说会非常有启发性。
Original English
Host: Yeah, you almost—it's like the education is wasted on the youth, you know, because you don't have the life experiences to appreciate what you're reading. But also, you know, they're summarizing, editing, and censoring a lot of the stuff you read. And if you just go back and say I'm just going to read the entire thing in its entirety, and there are a lot of other things you could also read, full histories of other things, but as an adult. I think that just makes you a better person and makes you a better business person, makes you a better leader. And also it helps you overcome the arrogance of thinking, oh, I'm the first guy in human history that ever encountered it. And what you'll realize is no, you're not. And the empowering part is someone else did, and this is how they worked their way through the issue. And that can be very inspirational for you.
告别与感谢
主持人: Michael,谢谢你。感谢你抽出时间。感谢你打开了我们所有人的眼界,感谢你建立了一个持续以人们从未想过可能的方式创新的企业。感谢你把我介绍给比特币。我想你们俩都把我介绍给了它,而且你还让我有了一个不卖掉它的心智框架。如果当时没有这个框架,我可能会亏很多钱,谢天谢地现在我都不知道它在哪里。我哥哥,我哥哥和我的一些兄弟姐妹帮我打理它,我不必经历那种焦虑。也感谢你推动“主权”这个理念,因为我认为在一个审查和集权日益加剧的世界里,主权是一个真正制胜的理念,我想那也是你在哲学层面追求的东西。希望很快能再和你聊聊,因为你是一个能够谈论这么多我关心的话题的人。
Original English
Host: Michael, thank you. Thank you for taking the time. Thank you for opening all of our eyes and thank you for building a business which has continued to innovate in such a way that people never thought was possible. Thank you for introducing me to Bitcoin. I think you both introduced me to it but also you enabled me to have a mental framework for not selling it. When I had—I would have lost a lot of money and thankfully now I don't even know where it is. My brother, my brother and some of my siblings take care of it for me and I don't have to experience the angst. And also just thank you for pushing for this idea of sovereignty because I think in the world of increasing censorship and centralization, sovereignty is a really winning idea and I think that's what you're sort of philosophically aiming at as well. And yeah, I hope to speak to you sometime soon because you're an individual capable of speaking about such a broad range of subjects that I care so much about.
Michael Saylor: 很高兴能和你一起走在这段旅程上。谢谢你,我的朋友。
Original English
Michael Saylor: It's a pleasure to be on the journey together. Thank you, my friend.
主持人: YouTube现在有这种新的疯狂算法,它基于AI和你所有的观看行为,精确知道你想看的下一个视频是什么。而这个算法说,这个视频就是为你量身定做的完美视频。现在正在看的每个人看到的都不一样。去看看这个视频吧,我打赌你可能会爱上它。
Original English
Host: YouTube have this new crazy algorithm where they know exactly what video you would like to watch next based on AI and all of your viewing behavior. And the algorithm says that this video is the perfect video for you. It's different for everybody looking right now. Check this video out and I bet you, you might love it.