Palantir CTO 谈美国防御重构:AI、工业动员与“异端”英雄的回归 a16z 2026-03-20

国家意志与生存风险

Shyam Sankar: 世界局势提醒我们,这个世界上确实存在邪恶。极端野蛮的行为依然可能发生。当一个国家进入战争时,仅仅依靠国防部去打仗是不够的。实际上需要整个国家的力量。如果认为美国人民没有这种能力,那简直令人难以置信。我认为作为一个国家,我们面临的最大风险是自杀,而不是他杀。

Original English

Shyam Sankar: World events remind us that there is actually evil out there. Just horrendous barbarism is still possible. When a country goes to war, it's not enough to just have the department of war fight these wars. It is actually the whole country. The idea that somehow the American people are not capable of this. It beggars belief. I think our biggest risk as a country is suicide, not homicide.

Katherine Boyle: 我们如何赢得 AI 竞赛,尤其是当它向更多的物理 AI、机器人技术等领域迈进时?

Original English

Katherine Boyle: How do we win the AI race, particularly as it moves towards more physical AI and robotics, etc.

Shyam Sankar: 我们过去获胜所依赖的那些东西,我们不经意间背弃了它们。现在有一个充满活力的机会来重新夺回这些优势。在当下,你可以说我们需要制造更多武器,我们需要做这做那。是的,但我们最需要做的事情是……

Original English

Shyam Sankar: The things that we did to win in the past, we accidentally turned our back on. And there's an opportunity to reclaim that with vigor. In the moment right now, you could say we need to build more weapons. We need to do this. We have Yes. But the most important thing we need to do is...

从后台推手到公开呼吁

Katherine Boyle: 所以,当我们讨论必须要邀请的嘉宾时,Shyam Sankar 你就在名单的最顶端。为什么呢?我想人们在看了 Jeremy Stern 的那篇报道,了解了 Colossus 之后,最近听到了很多关于 Shyam 的故事或播客。如果你在几年前就处于核心圈子里,你会知道他是所有人的“原始解决者”(OG fixer)。

Anduril 的联合创始人 Trey Stevens 曾在 Twitter 上公开说,Shyam 凭一己之力造就了他的职业生涯。许多创始人,比如 John Doyle,都指出 Shyam 是成就他们事业、介绍他们进入 Palantir 并给予支持的人,同时也给了他们脱离 Palantir 去开创事业的翅膀。这种故事听了一遍又一遍。但直到几年前,Shyam 才真正成为一个公众人物。以前他更像是幕后的操盘手。

真正改变这一切的,是你写的那篇关于 First Breakfast国防重构的开创性文章。你是第一个真正开始谈论这件事的人。在加入 Palantir 的 17 年后,你决定成为美国变革的坚定发声者。我想聊聊这个转变,从一个幕后推手,到决定站出来成为这个运动的领路人,你的动力是什么?

Original English

Katherine Boyle: So, Katherine, when we were talking about guests that we had to add on, Sean was at the the the top of your list. Why was that? Yeah. Well, I you know, it's it's I think people are, you know, after the Jeremy Stern profile and Colossus and a lot of um I think you know, stories that have come out recently or podcasts that have come out about Sham. Um it he he's one of these people that if you were in the know several years ago, you knew he was the OG like fixer for everyone. You know, I I think Trey Stevens, who's you know, the co-founder of of Andreal, came out um on Twitter and said like he's single-handedly responsible for my career. And I, you know, John Doyle, so many of our founders have pointed to Sham as the person who made their career and introduced them to Palunteer, supported them in Palunteer, but also sort of um, you know, gave them wings to fly away from Palanteer and to start something new. And you hear that story time and time and time again. But it wasn't until, and Eric, you and I were talking about this, it wasn't until a couple years ago that I think Sham actually became more of a public figure. He was sort of the behindthescenes guy, the behind-the-scenes picture. Um, and I think the thing that really changed it was Sham, and I'd love to to talk to you about kind of what was the inspiration for this. You you sort of um wrote this seminal piece about First Breakfast, about defense reformation. Um, and we're the first person to really start talking about it. Um, but again, this was like 17 years into the journey of Palunteer that you decided I'm going to be, you know, a strident voice for what needs to happen in America. Um, so I'd love to talk to you about this, you know, going from the behind-the-scenes person, the the guy behind the guy in so many of our companies, uh, to saying, "I need to come out and and be a voice for this movement." What What was the kind of impetus for that?

Shyam Sankar: 这一方面是出于绝望,另一方面是出于乐观。在多年深入观察五角大楼内部,看到国防工业如何运作后,我感到了一种置于历史背景下的“温水煮青蛙”般的危机。我站出来发声的原因是,我认为现在是解决所有问题的时机。在体制内腐朽的同时,我也看到了外部正在发生的事情:创始人精神正在重新崛起,人们充满了活力,渴望为国家利益而奋斗。

现在是时候去总结核心诊断结果了。实际上,我们过去获胜的关键因素,都被我们不经意间抛弃了。我们有机会以强劲的力量夺回这些。时间不多了,倒计时已经开始。我们已经“煮”到了丧失威慑力的地步。孤立地看任何一件事,你都可以解释得通:2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚只是个例;2015年南沙群岛的军事化只是个例;核协议未能阻止伊朗;以及在以色列发生的屠杀。尤其是十月七日之后,那是一个激进化的时刻——到底发生了什么?我们需要行动。而且自那以后,更多的事情接踵而至。

好消息是,在过去一年里,国防部发生的改变比我过去19年看到的还要多。人们正在抓住这个重构的机会。能够站出来,让人们团结在这个目标周围,为了国家利益而建设,这是非常有意义的。

Original English

Shyam Sankar: It was kind of equal parts an act of desperation and act of optimism. Um, you know, I I felt like after years of just seeing uh the the the building, the Pentagon from the inside, seeing how defense was operating, I felt this frog boil that continued to happen uh set in a historical context. But the reason to say something is actually I thought this was the moment that it could all be fixed. that alongside of that happening, seeing what was happening outside of the building that the founders were reemerging, there was a huge amount of energy, people wanted to build in the national interest, uh, and and it was a moment to kind of crystallize what at least put forth what I thought the fundamental diagnosis was that really the things that we did to win in the past, we accidentally turned our back on. And there's an opportunity to reclaim that with vigor. Uh, and we needed to do so quickly. That time was running out. there was a shot clock here that we have frogboiled our way to a place where we've lost deterrence. You know, it's any one of these items in isolation you can write off. You could say, okay, the Russians annexed Crimea in 2014. That's just one thing. Then you have the militarization of the Spratley Islands in the in 15. You have the the failure of GC JCPOA to keep the Iranians from getting a bomb. You have a pogram in Israel. And certainly after October 7th, I I I it was kind of a radicalizing moment that like what is going on here? Uh we we need to act. And I think we we've only had more things since then. Now, I think the good news is in the last year, more has changed in the department than I've seen change in the prior 19 years. And and people are are seizing that moment for reformation. Um, and it's it's been it's been rewarding to kind of get it out there, get people to rally behind it, and uh all of us building in the national interest.

领导力与“异端”盟友

Katherine Boyle: 是什么促成了这种改变?虽然这并非单一时刻发生的,但文化和时代精神(Zeitgeist)确实发生了变化。你对文化以及这种模因移转(mimetic shifts)有独特的理解。18个月前,为什么大家似乎突然都同意了那些曾经极度非主流、让你到处碰壁的观点?

Original English

Katherine Boyle: Yeah. I mean, what what is it because I think you get this question probably all the time. What is it about the last I mean as you said it wasn't a single moment but there is some change in the culture and the zeitgeist and I think you know you have a unique understanding too of of of culture and and kind of how these mimetic shifts happen but what was it about you know 18 months ago where it's like everyone seems to agree on the thing that was so contrarian uh for for many years where you were sort of banging your head against a wall saying like this is you know this needs to happen.

Shyam Sankar: 对我而言,这一切都归结为领导力。我们称他们为“开国元勋”是有原因的。美国精神中有一种特殊的东西。每一个创业故事都是由异端和英雄色彩组成的。我们拥有那些看到了现状不可持续、意识到倒计时将近的人,他们在体制内外同时发力。这就像是一场“志同道合者”和“有能力者”的共谋联盟。很难指出单一的时刻,我认为选举是一个重要部分。不是为了政治化,而是因为能够拥有具备清晰眼光的领导层,并为这种变革创造条件。

Original English

Shyam Sankar: Well, maybe unsurprising for my worldview, it all comes down to leadership. You know, I I we call them the founding fathers for a reason. There is something special about the American spirit. Uh that is, you know, every founding story is is equal parts heresy and heroism. And um we had the right people who kind of saw like, hey, this is not working and we're the shock clock is running out and we have to do something. And we had those people both inside the building and outside the building. So, it's kind of a conspiracy coalition of the willing, co coalition of the capable to go do that. Um, so it's it's hard to point to any one single moment. I I think the the kind of the election is a big part of it. Not to not to make it political, but just being able to get in uh leadership that viewed it with clarity and set the conditions uh to to make this change happen.

工业基础与 WWII 的启示

Katherine Boyle: 你最近非常忙,加入了美国陆军,还写了一本即将出版的书。我想聊聊《动员》(Mobilize)。为什么决定现在写一本关于美国现状的经典之作?为什么现在要写书、参军、同时还领导 Palantir?

Original English

Katherine Boyle: Yeah. So, you've been busy. Um you you know, you've you've joined the army. Um you're you've written a book that's coming out. Um, I'd love to get into to mobilize, but first, why did you decide now's the time to sort of write the write the canonical book of what needs to happen in America and then maybe we can talk about sort of the the sort of fundamental thesis too, but why why now? Why why write a book, join the army? Um, and also uh be leading palunteer.

Shyam Sankar: 这一切都有一个核心线索:我们如何动员起来防止更大规模的冲突?如果你仔细观察,很难不觉得我们正处于20世纪30年代末。局势正在酝酿,已经酝酿很久了。人们谈论大国竞争,我认为我们正从冷战获胜的懈怠中走出来——或者更准确地说,是由于苏联的失败导致我们产生了一系列错误的认知。

我们不会拥有二战时的那种奢侈——让对手先攻击我们,然后再决定动员。对二战更清醒的认识应该是:我们并不是在珍珠港事件后按下一个开关,汽车工业就突然转向生产军需品了。真实情况是,罗斯福总统在30年代末就意识到需要动员,但当时还没有国家意志或民众授权。租借法案(Lend-Lease)提供了一个机制。我们花了18个月建立工厂并重组产能,创造了威慑力。当我们真正开战时,我们已经处于全速生产状态了。

当一个国家开战时,是整个国家在开战。仅仅依靠国防工业基地或国防部去打仗是不够的。作为美国公民,我们不仅需要投资于国家给予我们的繁荣,也需要投资于承载这种繁荣的自由

我们已经偏离那个世界太远了。1989年,柏林墙还在时,只有 6% 的主战装备开支流向了单纯的国防承包商。而现在这个数字是 86%。我们现在认为的“常态”其实是历史的畸变。《动员》旨在通过历史背景重新讲述这个故事。二战获胜的“美国工业基地”是全方位的——克莱斯勒既造民用车也造民兵导弹。美国消费者买的每一盒麦片其实都在补贴我们的国家安全。

Original English

Shyam Sankar: Yeah. Well, they're all there is a there's a cogent kind of thread through that, which is like how how do we mobilize to prevent a bigger conflict? And if you're if you're really paying attention, it's hard not to think that we're kind of in the late30s here. That things are are brewing. They've been brewing for a while. Um people talk about great power competition. Uh and I think we're kind of coming out of the malaise of having won the Cold War or the Soviets having lost it perhaps more accurately and that kind of led to a lot of of bad behaviors. It allowed us to believe a lot of lies about the future that that were kind of now working to market. Uh and so part we we will not have the luxury that we really had in uh in World War II of letting the adversary attack us first and then deciding to mobilize. And I think a more cleareyed view of what actually happened in World War II is that's not it. It's not this fil thing that we just flipped a switch and the automotive industry decided, okay, after Pearl Harbor, we're going to make all this war material. What really happened is that leadership from FDR realized in the in the 30s in the late 30s that we needed to mobilize but there was not yet a national will or popular mandate to do so. uh and len lease provided the mechanism to do that that we it took us 18 months to build factories and retool them and we were able to create capability deterrence that we we sold to the Brits and to the Soviets such that when World War II really kicked off for us when Pearl Harbor happened we were at full rate production and the way that we mobilize you know when a country goes to war it's the whole country that goes to war it's not enough I think part of the legacy of having won the Cold War is thinking like it's enough to just have a defense industrial base it's enough to just have the department of war fight these wars. It is actually the whole country. And I think that's the the most um stark thing. It's like we all as American citizens need to be invested in both the prosperity the country gives us but also the freedom that underwrites that prosperity. And we have come a very far away from that world. You know in 1989 only 6% of spending on major weapon systems went to defense specialists i.e. companies that were exclusively in the business of defense. That's not that long ago. That's when the Berlin Wall still stood. Now that number is 86%. So really the what we think of as normal is an aberration from the past and mobiliz seeks to set that story in context of one hey this is the industrial base what I like to call the American industrial base that won World War II. Chrysler built Minuteman missiles and minivans and every camera car serial box that an American consumer bought was actually also subsidizing our national security. And that's really important. We see this with the hyperscalers. We see this with technology. The amount that our private sector spends on R&D dwarfs what the government is capable of spending. And you want to get on that price performance curve as a way of delivering capabilities to our brave men and women in uniform.

异端者的创新:从希金斯船到核海军

Shyam Sankar: 那么我们如何回到那个时代?现在的美国工业基地是谁?我们想到的是诺格或洛马,但实际上最初是格伦·马丁杰克·诺斯罗普。他们是活生生的人,是创始人。他们不仅仅在政府之外,也在政府之内。比如海曼·里科弗(Hyman Rickover),他在海军反对的情况下建立了核海军。奥本海默曾告诉里科弗他会失败,但他依然坚持了下去。这就是典型的“创始人人格”。

冷战结束后,为了获得“和平红利”,国防承包商从 51 家合并到了 5 家。传统的解释认为这导致了竞争的丧失。但我觉得这种看法是错的。国防市场本质上是一个买方垄断(monopsony),创新的驱动力从来不是行业竞争,而是政府内部各军种之间的竞争。

那次大规模合并真正导致的后果是从众心理(conformity)。它开启了国防领域的金融化时代。这些公司不再考虑增长,而是考虑分红、回购和现金流。在这种压抑的环境下,创始人无法生存,异端者被排挤到了科技行业。

但这些异端者是必不可少的。书里记录了几乎所有的重大国防创新,每一个在最初都是被视为异端的想法。官僚机构想扼杀它们,流程试图摧毁它们。比如二战中获胜的关键——希金斯船(Higgins boat)。海军当初根本不想买,甚至想偷走设计。但最终二战中 92% 的船只都是希金斯船。如果没有这个固执的苏格兰裔爱尔兰人的病态坚持,诺曼底登陆可能根本无法实现。

Original English

Shyam Sankar: Uh the so how do we get back to that you know and I oh so the second part of it yeah so we had the American industrial base but who was the American industrial base today? We think of it as north of Grumman. We think of it as Loheed Martin, but actually it was Glenn Martin, it was Jack Northrop, it was Leroy Grumin. They were people. They were founders. They they were kind of not thinking about, hey, what's the performance going to be next quarter? They were building something way bigger than themselves, way bigger than their their companies. And those founders weren't just outside of government. They were inside of government. It was the Heimman Rickovers, the you know, against the will of the Navy building the nuclear navy. And I love that story, too, because it takes a lot of hutzbah. Oppenheimer, the father of the bomb, said the nuclear navy wasn't going to work. He told Oppenheimer, he told Heyman he was going to fail and he still p he still proceeded. And that's something I think in the valley we recognized as the classic founder personality. And a big part of what happened, you know, after after the end of the cold war, we we wanted a peace de dividend. We started spending less in defense. We had this famous dinner, the last supper. We went from 51 prime contractors down to five. I think the conventional explanation of what happened uh is wrong. This people think hey we had consolidation. Consolidation means we lost competition. That's not yeah okay maybe at the margin but that first of all it's always been a monopsiny you know the nature of the competition is not what people think. It's not these companies competing against each other. The competition's always been the services competing. It's been competition inside of government that drove innovation not competition from industry. What really happened from the last supper is that consolidation bred conformity. It was the beginning of true financialization of defense. These companies really could no longer think about growth. They thought about financial metrics, dividends, buybacks, cash flow. And it it kind of became very narrow and that conformity is not an environment that founders can thrive in. You know, the the heretics h were expuned. They left. They went to other parts of the American economy like tech. Uh but the those heretics are required. In fact, if you look at part of the book, we catalog all these amazing defense innovations almost to a tea. Every single one of them was a heretical idea. You know, the the institution was against it. The bureaucracy was against it. The process tried to kill it. Uh and these determinative outcomes, you can think about the Higgins boat, the boat that won World War II. The Navy didn't want to buy the boat. The Navy tried to steal the designs for the boat. In the end, 92% of all boats in World War II were Higgins boats. Think about where we'd be if this Scots-Irishman wasn't just willing to just almost pathologically commit himself to making this happen. The boys that would not have landed at Normandy.

加拉帕戈斯群岛上的巨龟

Katherine Boyle: 这非常有趣。这种强制合并导致人才流失,正好赶上互联网崛起。那些特立独行的人转而去开发激动人心的新事物。比如 Marc Andreessen,他本可以在20年前进入国防工业,但他选择了互联网。是不是因为国防工业变成了一个让异见者无法生存的地方?

Original English

Katherine Boyle: Yeah. No, I mean, and that's super interesting. Yeah. Because I think that, as you said, it's always been, you know, that this sort of force consolidation that we've picked the winners there. You know, we're we're we're post now, like we we don't actually need to build for for wartime. So, it's your view that that really that just expuned all of the talent that used to go to defense. And it's interesting because it's also I mean it's in some ways it's it's sort of serendipitous that that's exactly when the internet's rising. So, it's like if you're this kind of weird personality, you're going to go work on this new thing that's so exciting. You know, I think of like, you know, Mark Andre, right? Like he's he could have been in the defense industry maybe 20 years earlier, but it's like, you know, the people who were building the internet in the '9s, they want to build the new thing. So I guess like is is that sort of the fundamental problem is that like it just became a place where anyone who was interesting or anyone who had a different view just could not thrive.

Shyam Sankar: 没错。而且由于“买方垄断”的性质,国防部开始对供应商施加各种各样的限制。这就像是把所有的国防公司都放到了加拉帕戈斯群岛(Galapagos Islands)上。他们不在大陆生活了。你在加拉帕戈斯会看到什么?你会看到精美绝伦的巨龟。它们非常酷,像外星生物。但是当你把这些巨龟带回大陆,它们根本没有竞争力,会被狼群生吞活剥。

我们设置了巨大的障碍,阻碍体制外的人带着想法进来。当我们开始做 Palantir 时,国防部根本没有门供我们进入。只有一条路,那就是通过情报机构的 In-Q-Tel。现在这种情况发生了巨变,2024年的“国防重构”意义重大,因为我们已经有十年的“异端者”在敲门准备提供帮助了。

Original English

Shyam Sankar: Yeah. Exactly. And then we compounded on that problem by you know the the nature of the monopsin. So unlike a monopoly where you have one seller over a thing, a monopoly is where you have one buyer over a thing that the department of war is a monopsy. Um the nature of the monopsin is it forgets it starts imposing all sorts of constraints on its suppliers and how they behave and what they need to look like. And that led to it's like putting we put all of these companies on the Galopagos Islands. Uh they're not on the mainland anymore. And so what do you get on the Galapagos? You get these exquisite giant tortoises. They're really amazing. Like like it's like alien life. It's it's very cool. Except when you take the tortoise back to the mainland, they're not competitive. They're going to get eaten alive by the wolves. Yeah. Uh and so we started creating a huge number of barriers for these people who even when they had ideas that could those ideas come back into defense. Uh I like to say like when we started Palunteer there was no front door in the department of defense. You know you had to the only front door. There was exactly one. It was in the intelligence community. It was Inkutel. If you were an outsider there was no other way in. The only people that worked here were insiders. Uh of course now that is that's part of the sea change that happened starting really in 2015. But that means putting forth the 18 thesis and the defense reformation and 2024 makes a lot of sense because we have 10 years of heretics who have been knocking at the gate ready to to come help the department.

Maven 计划之父:Drew Cukor 上校

Katherine Boyle: 书中谈到了很多异端英雄。谁是你心中最令人兴奋的、大家还不了解但需要知道的人物?

Original English

Katherine Boyle: Yeah. No, and so much of the book I mean you talk about these sort of heretical heroes, you know, in doing the research and I mean you're you're now sort of like the walking encyclopedia for the defense industry um in tech. Who who are the most exciting heroes? Like who's the person you look at and you say like gosh that that is that is the person that people don't know about. They need to know.

Shyam Sankar: 我要推介的是 Drew Cukor 上校,他是 Maven 计划(Project Maven)之父。他出身于南加州一个单亲家庭,家境贫寒,唯一的上大学途径是参加预备役军官训练营(ROTC)。

他经历过一次关键事件:当时他正试图撤离逃离 ISIS 的雅兹迪难民。一名年轻的海军陆战队员通过侦察画面误判看到了 RPG 火箭筒,导致撤离行动取消。结果数以千计的人被酷刑、奴役和强奸。这次失败彻底改变了他。

所以,当他在五角大楼地下室得到一个没有任何资源的、利用 AI 改造国防部的机会时,他全力以赴。你可以看到异端者的艰辛旅程:体制内的人都讨厌他,每个人都想杀掉这个项目。有人甚至举报库科尔上校在地下室私藏伊朗人,派了刑事调查员去他家。结果调查员发现他是一个虔诚的摩门教徒,家里根本没有地下室。

这反映了你是否愿意为了交付目标而豁出一切?这种精神激励了我。最重要的不是造更多武器,而是激励潜伏的异端者站出来。现在国家真的需要你。领导层正在创造保护这些异端者的条件。John Boyd,F-16 之父,空军也曾恨透了他。但海军陆战队学习了他所有的异端思想。在第一次海湾战争中,我们几天内摧毁了世界第四大军队,证明了他所有的理论(如 OODA 循环)都是正确的。

Original English

Shyam Sankar: Well, I I think u it's hard to pick only one. The a new profile that we put out there, which is so some of these figures are historical figures. Bernard Shriber, Edward Hall, Heyman, Rick Ober, James Boyd, John Boyd, sorry, but the one that's new is Colonel Drew Cukor. And Kukor is the father of Maven. And here you have this uh Marine Colonel, you know, uh born raised by a single mother, Southern California, uh very modest background. found his only way of going to college was ROTC, joined the Marines. Lots of incredible experiences there, but he he had a a seminal experience where he was trying to evacuate Yazadi refugees who were fleeing ISIS and a a young Marine looking at ISR made a call that he thought he saw RPGs and that would make made it unsafe for the Marines to land and Xfill these people. And there there actually wasn't one. As a consequence, you have order of thousands of people who were tortured, enslaved, and raped because of this failure of operation. And it just it just changed this man. And so when he had an opportunity in the basement of the Pentagon on a project with no resources to go after bringing AI to the department, he leaned all the way in. And you can see the the journey of the heretic here where everyone hated him. Everyone tried to kill him. Every service thought they were doing AI. Uh people tried to throw IG investigations and like one of the the details we document is that someone said that Colonel Cukor is housing Iranians in his basement. So they they actually sent out criminal investigators to his house to look at this. And here here's a a Mormon devout Mormon, four four daughters, 1400 foot home that doesn't have a basement by the way. Uh and you know the investigators were just completely dumbfounded. It shows you sometimes that what you know are you are you willing to put it all on the line? Are you so committed so incorruptible in what you're trying to deliver or is this just a career? And that's one of the things I think I draw a lot of inspiration from these folks is just seeing you know if they can do this we can too. Seeing that these people exist inside of government they exist outside of government. And I think it's that's in the moment right now you could say we need to build more weapons. We need to do this. We need Yes. But most the most important thing we need to do is inspire the latent heretics to actually step up. This is the moment your country really needs you. Uh what what's been exciting over the last year or so is I'm seeing those people. I'm seeing them inside the building. I'm seeing outside the building. And that's that is you know what is driving the change is the leadership is setting the conditions to empower the heretics. They're protecting them. John Boyd who was a famously difficult fighter pilot. His own service the air force hated him. But the Marines learned everything they could from him and all of his heresy. He was really the father of the F-16. All of his heresy was proven correct in Gulf War I where we destroyed the fourth largest army in the world in days. It just everything came to bear. His high low mix, his udaloop. Um but you know John Boyd said to be or to do. You can be somebody or you can do something and but you can't have both and you know how committed are you to this? But he was so difficult he gets a lot of credit. I think the other person who deserves credit who I don't even know the name of is a three-star Air Force general who protected him because people like that do not survive in these bureaucracies on their own. It's not like hey he's difficult and we somehow tolerated him. It's no someone realized there's something special here and despite that we tolerate him. You see that with the dynamic between Bernard Shriber who built um our intercontinental ballistic missiles and Edward Hall who specifically built the Minute Man. Shrivever um fired Hull once and then hired him back realizing there was no way we were going to get to solidfueled intercontinental ballistic missiles without this notoriously difficult human. And I think um that that's that's great leadership.

AI:大卫的弹弓与工人超级英雄

Katherine Boyle: 你谈到 AI 就像是“大卫的弹弓”,在面对中国这种庞大的对手时发挥作用。你如何看待 AI 对经济和就业市场的影响?

Original English

Katherine Boyle: You talked about AI being like David's slingshot in a world where the Chinese Goliath has been this giant sucking sound of American prosperity. Um how do you think it's going to impact the economy?

Shyam Sankar: 关于 AI 的讨论总是忽略了人类的主体性(agency)。不是 AI 会做什么,而是人类使用 AI 去做什么。我们有一个历史性的机会,来修复 70 年代以来工资增长与 GDP 增长脱节的问题。

我看到 AI 正在赋予美国工人“超能力”。在 ICU 病房、在工厂车间,AI 能让一个普通员工的生产力提高 50 到 100 倍。这是重新工业化的基础。全球化的一个巨大谎言是:我们在这里创新,在别处生产。但实际上,创新是生产力的后果。如果你不制造这个东西,你就无法在如何制造它以及它应该是什么样子的方面进行创新。

看看 SpaceX,为什么研发工程师就在生产车间办公?为了极短的反馈回路。反面教材是 WuXi AppTec(药明康德),曾经被认为只是低廉的外包研发,而现在 50% 的临床试验都在中国进行。

我不认同那些 AI 末日论,那通常是发明者的观点。技术革命通常是工具革命,而不是概念革命。伽利略没有发明望远镜,但他用它发现了行星运动。技术的未来不是由发明者决定的,而是由使用者决定的。

Original English

Shyam Sankar: The first bit is what always irks me about how we talk about AI is as if somehow we have no human agency. AI is going to do X. No, that's not right. Humans are going to use AI to do X. There's a choice here. My view of this is we have a historic opportunity to fix the fundamental breakdown that happened in the 70s between wage growth and GDP growth. uh that this should be if we look at just the the example we have about the intel warrant officer who's suddenly able to do so much. Well, I see that playing out on the ICU floor. I see that playing out on the factory floor. There is an opportunity to give the American worker superpowers with AI. It's David Slingshot in a world where the Chinese Goliath has been this giant sucking sound of American prosperity. uh if we do that, it's a basis for underwriting the re-industrialization of the country and that we're not going to do this symmetrically. That's why it's a slingshot. It's not like, hey, this is how they do it there. We're going to do this here. It's it's actually we're going to do this in entirely new ways. Like Hadrien is a perfect example of that, right? We are re-industrializing using technology, making these people 50, 100 times more productive than it could be otherwise. And it's going to lead to all sorts of of new possibilities in particular because I think the great lie of globalization is that we can do the innovation over here and we're going to have the production go over there. Well, guess what? Innovation is a consequence of productivity. If you don't make the thing, you can't innovate on how you make the thing and what the thing is. You see that with SpaceX. There's a reason the R&D engineers are colllocated on the production floor. What is the feedback loop and cycle time they expect to come out of that? And you see that in the negative where we used to think Wooi was just some cheap set of pipe heading arms for contract pharmaceutical research and now 50% of all clinical trials are being done in China. Uh and and so I think we should view this as a national emergency and a national opportunity uh around AI. And what what concerns me a bit these these technology revolutions are usually by like the vast vast majority are tool revolutions not concept revolutions. It was not Galileo who invented the telescope. He used it to discover planetary motion. It was the the future of these technologies, the microscope, the power loom, the telescope, the personal computer. Uh they are determined not by the inventor of the technology but by the people who wield the technology. Today when we listen to the AI dumerism, we're listening to the inventors who are incredibly smart. But just like their creations, they have their own jagged intelligence. you know, just because they were smart at building the model doesn't mean they're going to be right about the implications of it. Uh, and then we are implicitly giving up our own human agency and how to steer it. It is us as the wielders of it that are going to determine the future course of this technology.

SaaS 启示录:Alpha 软件 vs Beta 软件

Katherine Boyle: 让我们谈谈“SaaS 启示录”。有一种观点认为,AI 降低了切换成本,代码、数据和 UI 都不再是护城河,许多 SaaS 公司正在走向死胡同。你怎么看?

Original English

Katherine Boyle: Let's get into the the SAS apocalypse. Uh you know there there's a line of thinking that says hey um now that the switching costs or now that AI is here the switching costs are very low you know there's no code moat there's there's no data mo there's no UI moat and there's a set of SAS companies that are on the conveyor belt on the way to the guilty um and you know maybe it's Monday.com first and then maybe it's Atlassian and you know companies that aren't systems of record and then maybe it's it's coming for them too.

Shyam Sankar: 我认为两种情况都会发生。我有一个不同的衡量标准:哪些软件本质上是关于 Beta(跟随大盘)的,哪些是关于 Alpha(超额收益)的。

那些让你的公司变得和其他人一样的“Beta 软件”会遇到大麻烦。SaaS 行业的反馈回路通常是“我能卖出去吗”,而不是“它创造了价值吗”。而 AI 允许你通过“意境编程”(vibe coding)创建专属于你的软件,这本质上是面向 Alpha 的。

疫情期间有一个尴尬的时刻:没有哪个 CEO 在财报电话会议上吹嘘他们花了50亿美元搞的 ERP 系统救了供应链,因为那些系统在两周内就崩了。他们谈论的是 ZoomTeams。这应该是软件行业的“斯普特尼克时刻”——原来我们没造出什么真正有价值的东西。

AI 将作为一种工具包,允许你表达你的竞争优势和策略。这种能表达你与众不同之处的软件将会有极高的溢价。

Original English

Shyam Sankar: I think both things are true. So I have a I would give you a different rubric to think about it, which is um what software is really fundamentally about beta and what software is about alpha. And I think that that the software that's about beta is going to really struggle that you know this is this is software that made you more similar to everyone else. And this has been my historical critique of the software industrial complex which is that the feedback loop for the people building the software is can I sell it? not did it did it add value which is downstream of can you sell it uh and and so the you could think of almost like vibe coding the the advent of AI it allows you to make software that's specific to you it's inherently alpha focused if you do it right uh but I so I think that the platforms that are already focused on alpha are going to continue to have an advantage it's like actually going to be uh a wind that fills their sale up on the other side the stuff that's beta is is really going to struggle. And you can almost argue like maybe the beta wasn't that valuable to begin with. One one of the jarring moments for me was in COVID if you really look back at what were CEOs talking about in their earnings calls about software. They no one talked about the $5 billion ERP implementation they did that saved their supply chain because all of them fell over like paper tigers in two weeks. And what they were talking about was Zoom and Teams and how that enabled them to go remote. And you cannot think of like that's crazy. That is that that should have been a sputnick moment for the software industry to say, "Wow, we haven't built that's valuable." How depressing. Um and on the flip side, for us at least, CO was a huge tailwind because specifically because we were able to help our our customers adapt to this reality at the speed of the disruption. It it I think it kind of separated the wheat from the chaff. And I think we'll kind of see that, you know, maybe there's a lot of things we've been spending on almost mimemetically, like, well, other people use it for this. This is a standard industry solution for X. Those things are going to feel a lot of pressure. And on the on the flip side, they're going to be software that's almost almost like a toolkit, an approach that allows you to express how you're more different than other companies. It's almost become software that allows you to express your competitive advantage, your strategy is going to be a premium on the day two stuff like vibe coding. you can't do. I think that's actually true. Like I think it's actually true that day two is much harder. A lot of it's unsolved and you're going to have to figure that out. But I don't think that's going to preclude the pressure on the beta on the beta software.

文化重塑:影视作品中的美国精神

Katherine Boyle: 你最近开始投资电影,这和 Palantir 的业务完全不同。为什么要开电影制作公司?

Original English

Katherine Boyle: You have now been investing in film uh which is totally different than what you do at Palanteer. So I would love to understand you know why did you start a a film production company?

Shyam Sankar: 这源于我自己的融入之旅。我儿时移民到美国,融入过程就是和父亲坐在沙发上看80年代和90年代的电影:《猎杀红十月号》、《赤色黎明》、《第一滴血》。在了解公民义务之前,我就已经知道做一个美国人是什么感觉了。

最近的《壮志凌云:独行侠》让很多人重新找回了这种感觉。《斯巴达300勇士》上映后,海豹突击队的招募人数飙升,因为它激励人们想要变得那样英雄、强大。

如果我们的娱乐作品全是《终结者》、AI 毁掉世界、技术是邪恶的力量,那会创造一种消极的条件。而我成长的时代充满了对未来的乐观,相信我们可以登上其他星球。我们需要夺回讲故事的权利,让它既有娱乐性又具有启发性。

就像 1973 年乔治·卢卡斯拍摄《美国风情画》,就是因为他厌倦了当时的愤世嫉俗。他想拍一部关于少年开车追女孩的电影。这是一种“心灵洗涤剂”,让美国人记起:我们已经度过了悲伤和愤世嫉俗的周期,我们准备好了。

Original English

Shyam Sankar: Well, my it really starts with my own assimilation journey. You know, I I came to the US as a as a young child. I settled in Orlando and my assimilation journey as a four-year-old, 5-year-old was watching movies with dad on the couch. And what were the movies of the 80s and 90s? It was Hunt for Red October and Red Dawn and Rambo 2 and three. And, you know, I like to say as a 5-year-old, I knew what it felt like to be an American before I knew civics. That was way, way down the line. Uh, and I think a lot of people experience that again after a long period of time when they watch Top Gun Maverick. And so for, you know, we sometimes overintellectualize these things like there's a feeling to it. Uh, even subtle things like I I heard from the the guy who made the movie 300 that after 300 came out, Navy Seal recruitment went through the roof and he was kind of perplexed. Obviously, it's it's a movie about Spartans. Like, what does this have to do with Navy Seals? But it clearly inspired so many people to be like, I want to look like that. I want to be that strong. I want to be that heroic, you know. And so the the virtue of entertainment as first of all, it's got to be entertaining. It's not Pravda here. But then it it lets us reflect on ourselves and who do we want to be and what do we want to be like? And if our entertainment is all Terminator, AI ruins the world, technology is a force of evil. It's all dystopic future scenarios. That sets a sort of condition which I would juxtapose to my youth in Orlando growing up in the shadow of the space coast which was just like science and technology is amazing and it's we're going to be living on other planets and you know as a sixth grader write a report on how are you going to get to Mars and it just inculcates a fundamental belief that the future will be better and that science technology the will to invest in these hard problems is worth it. It's worth it. Uh, and and I so I think we we have a moment to reclaim storytelling in a way that's both entertaining and inspiring.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

关键字: defense-innovation industrial-mobilization ai-productivity saas-apocalypse national-security