散户交易的崛起与传统投资理念的挑战
我经历过最好的案例是关于英伟达(Nvidia)的詹森(Jensen),当时股价只有两美元,我说:“我们不再交易它了。请停止交易它。”
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The best one I've ever had was Jensen. When the stock was two, I said, 'We're done trading it. Please stop trading it.'
然后我给我的狗改了名字,它之前叫珠穆朗玛峰(Everest),我把它改名为英伟达。
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And then I renamed my dog. He was Everest, and I named him Nvidia.
我走遍全国,看到那只狗有多困惑。
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I go all over the country, and I see how confused the dog was.
那只明星狗是个傻瓜。
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The star dog was an idiot.
我大喊“待着别动!”
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I yelled, 'Stay!'
是的,你总是得手里拿着牛排。
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Yeah, I always had to have steak in your hand with him.
我确实这样做了。
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I did.
Joe Weisenthal: 大家好,欢迎收听《Odd Lots》播客的又一期节目。
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.
我是乔·魏森塔尔(Joe Weisenthal),我是特蕾西·阿洛韦(Tracy Alloway)。
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I'm Joe Weisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway.
特蕾西,我觉得现在市场的一个现象是,媒体上充斥着专家和广告,他们都说:“不要试图跑赢大盘。”
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Tracy, something I think about the market these days is that in the media, there is this incredible drumbeat of experts and ads that support the media, etc., all these experts, and they say, 'Don't try to beat the market.'
Tracy Alloway: 说得没错。
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That's right.
Joe Weisenthal: 指数化,指数化,指数化。
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Index, index, indexed.
实际上,指数化很棒,因为它成本低廉,而且指数基金(Index Fund: 旨在复制特定市场指数表现的投资基金)的回报率非常惊人。
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And actually, indexing is great because it's cheap, and indexes have performed incredible returns.
然而,在过去的几年里,公众似乎摆脱了束缚,做着完全相反的事情。
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And now though, for the last several years, it's like the public is becoming unshackled and doing the exact opposite of everything.
我们看到了最极端的日内交易、通过Robinhood(一家提供免佣金股票、ETF和期权交易的金融服务公司)交易个股、迷因股(Meme Stock: 因社交媒体热潮而非基本面被散户大量买卖的股票)和期权。
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And we see the most extreme form of, you know, day trading and trading and Robinhood individual names, meme stocks, options.
公众似乎已经反抗了多年来一直被灌输的这种信息。
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It's like the public has revolted against this message that it's been inundated with for years.
Tracy Alloway: 我觉得真正有趣的是,不仅散户(Retail Investor: 指非专业、小规模的个人投资者)正在自作主张,华尔街和机构投资者也开始效仿散户的做法。
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Well, you know, what I think is really interesting is not only is retail sort of going out on its own, but Wall Street and the institutional investors are kind of copying what retail does.
对吧?
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Right?
因为散户是第一批进入零日或一日期权(Zero-Day or One-Day Options: 到期日为当天或次日的短期期权合约)等领域的人。
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Because retail was the first into something like zero day or one day options.
然后它变得制度化了,你看到大量的专业资金随之而来。
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And then it became institutionalized. And you saw that big professional volume follow on.
所以感觉散户现在是市场中非常重要的一部分。
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So it feels like retail is a really important part of the market now.
与其说是散户试图模仿专家,不如说是专家试图追赶散户。
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And rather than retail trying to do what the experts do, it's kind of the experts trying to catch up.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的,追赶散户。
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Yeah, catch up with retail.
了解散户在做什么。
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Understand what retail is doing.
是的,我完全觉得,我喜欢指数基金,而且我不喜欢拥有——
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Yeah, I totally feel like, and again, like I'm not, I, I love an index fund and I don't like having—
Tracy Alloway: 你是个指数基金爱好者,我只是提醒你。
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You're a guy. I'm just going to remind you.
Joe Weisenthal: 我是个指数基金爱好者。
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I'm like an image guy. Yeah, I love it.
是的,我喜欢它。
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Yeah, I love it.
但我觉得存在巨大的张力,而且这种张力似乎正在加速,因为现在有越来越多的东西可以下注,还有加密货币。
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But like I do feel like there's this huge tension and it only feels like it's accelerating because now there's more and more things to bet on, and there's crypto.
很快,你就可以在你的Robinhood应用程序上,在一个预测市场上押注美联储(The Fed: 美国联邦储备系统,即美国中央银行)会做什么。
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And pretty soon on your Robinhood app, you're going to be able to like, bet on a prediction market on what the fed is going to do.
所以我们生活在一个交易的世界里。
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So we live in this world of trading.
Tracy Alloway: 是的,与所有——
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Yeah, against what all.
Joe Weisenthal: 然后就像我自己有时会告诉你在专业人士之前。
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And then is like myself sometimes I tell you before pros.
Tracy Alloway: 是的。
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Yeah.
Joe Weisenthal: 无论如何,我们确实请来了完美的嘉宾。
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Well, anyway, we really do have the perfect guest.
我文字上想和他交谈多年的人。
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Someone I've wanted to speak to literally for years.
一个长期以来公开宣扬个人可以选股的人,他们选股是件好事,你不必接受无聊、平庸和获得平均回报的想法。
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Someone who has long been preaching in public that the individual can pick stocks, they're picking stocks is a good thing, that you don't have to accept the idea of just being boring and being average and getting the average return.
我当然指的是,我们将与吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer: 知名财经评论员,CNBC《疯狂金钱》节目主持人)交谈。
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I'm of course, speaking of, we are going to be speaking with Jim Cramer.
他是《疯狂金钱》(Mad Money: CNBC的一档财经节目)的主持人,以及一个名为CNBC(消费者新闻与商业频道: 美国一家专门报道商业新闻的付费电视频道)的电视网的主持人。
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He is the host of Mad Money and some network called CNBC.
Tracy Alloway: 从未听说过。
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Never heard of it.
Joe Weisenthal: 他还是一本新书《如何在任何市场赚钱》(How to Make Money in Any Market: 吉姆·克莱默撰写的投资书籍)的作者。
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And he is the author of a new book, How to Make Money in Any Market.
所以,吉姆,很高兴你能来《Odd Lots》。
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So, Jim, thrilled to have you, on the odd lot.
克莱默的投资哲学:选股与长期复利
Jim Cramer: 首先,你刚才说的那个介绍,是的,那是我所说的基本原理。
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First of all, that intro, what you're talking about. Yes. Is that the fundament of what I'm talking about?
但我想花点时间谈谈我左边的那个人。
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But I want to spend a second talking about the person to my left.
乔伊是我的妻子。
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So Joey's my wife.
我的妻子认识我妻子。
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Know my wife.
我的妻子在一家脱口秀节目和书店工作,她说:“好吧,你今天有节目,你有乔。”
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My wife was a talk show in bookstore, and she goes, 'Okay, you got today's show and you got Joe.'
乔是一个能让你振作起来的人,他可能会了解这本书,他会了解你的东西。
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And Joe is someone who's going to get it going for you and wake up, and he's going to probably know the book, he's going to know your stuff.
我告诉你,当你做这些事情时,它们是相当没有灵魂的。
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And I tell you when you do, these things are pretty soulless.
所以当你得到像你们这样的东西时,我的意思是,我只是笑。
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So when you get something like, you guys, I mean, I just laugh.
你知道,我爸爸卖瓦楞纸板。
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I, you know, my dad sold corrugated.
那是我做对冲基金经理时的工作。
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That was his job when I was a hedge fund manager.
我只是专门和他一起。
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I just went exclusively with him.
让我参考上周的节目。
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Let me reference to last week's show.
但我确实想谈谈你所说的。
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But I do want to talk totally much, really, about what you're talking about.
我写了这本书。
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I wrote this book.
我只想说这本书的第一句话是“恭喜”。
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Well, I just want to say the first line of the book is congratulations.
恭喜。
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Congratulations.
你刚刚买到了有史以来最激进的投资书籍,以经典的克莱默模式。
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You've just bought the most radical book about investing ever in a classic Cramer model.
当然,因为我认为克莱默理解它。
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Sure, because I think Cramer understands it.
Joe Weisenthal: 喜欢这个。
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Love that.
Jim Cramer: 但事实是,现在每个人都被教导不能选股,你只能投资指数基金。
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But it's true that everyone's been taught these days. You can't pick stocks and you just have to be an index funds.
为此也要感谢沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett: 著名投资家,伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司董事长)。
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Thank you Warren Buffett for that too.
尽管他的股票才是你应该选择的。
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Although his stock was the one you should have picked.
让我感到困扰的是人们会这样做。
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And what bothers me is people are going to do it.
你谈到了零日期权,他就像那样。
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And you talked about zero day and he's like that.
他们会做的。
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They're going to do it.
如果他们要做,为什么不帮助他们呢?
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If they're going to do it, why not help them?
我的意思是,这本书的前提之一是,我知道人们想要投机。
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I mean, one of the premises of the book is, is that I know that people want to speculate.
所以,听着,我说把你一半的钱投入指数基金。
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So look, I say own an index fund for half your money.
你必须不断储蓄,然后拿出五个仓位。
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You've got to be saving constantly and then take five slots.
五个,尝试找到四只真正好的股票进行投机。
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Five try to find four really good stocks in the spec.
你想要去发展核电。
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You're one you want to go do nuclear power.
你想要去Bloom Energy(一家燃料电池制造商)投资氢燃料电池。
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You want to go to Bloom Energy for high. You know hydrogen fuel cells.
是的,我不会阻止它。
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Yeah I'm not going to stop it.
前提是你尝试找到下一个FANG(Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google四家科技巨头的首字母缩写,后来常指代大型科技股),我很幸运创造了FANG这个词,因为它听起来很有趣。
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Provided that you try to find the next fang and I'm fortunate enough to to created Fang because it was just something that seemed funny.
但你知道,我也这样做。
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But you know, I do that too.
但我试图做的是接受人们想做这件事的事实,那就正确地去做。
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But what I'm trying to do is accept the fact people want to do this, do it right.
如果他们做得对,也许他们会长期持有股票。
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And if they do it right, maybe they do long term own stocks.
Joe Weisenthal: 好的。
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Okay.
使用“复利”(Compounding: 利息或收益再投资产生额外收益的过程)这个词。
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Use the term compounding.
如果你是日内交易者,如何实现复利?
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How do you compound if you're day trader.
Jim Cramer: 是的。
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Yeah.
你不能,你不能。
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You can't you can't.
所以我的意思是,我看这个节目,这个节目是关于趋势和长期趋势的。
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So I mean I look at this show and this show is about trends and about long term trends.
我发现我读到的大多数东西都是关于交易的。
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Like I, I find that most things that I read about are about trading.
你不能在交易上打败机器,但如果你长期持有真正好的股票并进行复利,你就能打败它们。
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And you can't beat the machines trading, but you can beat them if you compound long term in really good stocks.
我提到了这很疯狂,但我研究了100多年,这是一项关于100多年的研究。
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And I mentioned it's crazy, but I went over 100 years was a study about over 100 years.
如果你持有Vulcan Materials(一家建筑材料公司)的股票,你就会发财。
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And if you held Vulcan materials rocks, you made a fortune.
我不太强调它,但如果你持有Philip Morris(一家烟草公司),你赚的钱最多。
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I don't really emphasize it, but if you hold Philip Morris, you made the most money, and he stock Philip Morris.
Joe Weisenthal: 哦,是的。
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Oh, yeah.
Jim Cramer: 你不需要打败。
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You didn't need to beat.
他拆分了那家公司。
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He broke that company up.
这是有史以来最伟大的拆分之一。
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Is one of the greatest break ups ever.
但我不喜欢谈论。
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But I don't like to talk.
但我失去了我的父亲,他因为吸烟得了癌症。
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But I lost my father in order to, you know, get cancer from smoking.
他在临终前想要一支香烟。
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Wanted a cigaret on his deathbed.
你知道,那种胡说八道。
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You know, that kind of nonsense.
所以我认为长期持有是好的,前提是你做得对。
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So I feel like that long term is good, provided you do it right.
我让人们选股,因为他们想这样做。
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And I let people pick stocks because they want to.
顺便说一句,去年有60万富翁是通过个股创造的。
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And by the way, there have been 600,000 millionaires created by individual stocks in the last year.
我希望读这本书的人成为下一批。
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And I want the people who read it to be the next ones.
Joe Weisenthal: 我认为可以公平地说,无论你对整体表现和有效市场假说(Efficient Market Hypothesis: 认为所有可获得的信息都已反映在资产价格中,因此不可能持续跑赢市场)有何看法,仅仅把钱投入S&P 500(标准普尔500指数: 衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数)是有点无聊的,对吧?
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I think it's fair to say whatever you think about, overall performance and the efficient market hypothesis, just putting your money in the S&P 500 is kind of boring, right?
Jim Cramer: 嗯,就是这样。
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Well that's it.
你看到人们,他们想要一些东西。
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You see people, they want some.
他们渴望。
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They're jonesing.
我必须阻止他们渴望错误的东西,因为我甚至不想。
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I have to keep them from jonesing on the wrong thing because I don't even want to.
我实际上想要投资。
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I actually want investing.
我做了很多年的对冲基金经理,对吧?
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I was a hedge fund manager, right, for many, many years.
当我辞职时,我说:“你知道吗?我必须改变这一点,因为人们总是认为他们可以从零开始购买美光(Micron: 一家存储芯片制造商)的股票,而你对美光一无所知。”
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And when I quit, I said, 'You know what? I have got to change this because people keep thinking they can come in standing store and buy micron and you don't know anything about micron to a standing start.'
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 为什么不选择一只因为有好的股息收益率而下跌的优秀股票,你可以长期持有它。
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Why not pick a great stock that's down because it's got a good yield and you can own it for a long time.
你看到了大的长期趋势。
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You see the big secular trend.
如果我能做到这一点,让人们停止日内交易。
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And if I can do that get people to stop day trading.
那就是胜利。
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That's the win.
他们不能。
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They can't.
你们认为他们可以在家里日内交易获胜吗?
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Do you guys think that they can win day trading at home?
Joe Weisenthal: 不,不,没关系。
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No, no it's okay.
Jim Cramer: 他们不能。
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They can't look to your argument.
他们不能在日内交易中获胜,但他们可以在选股和持股中获胜。
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They can't win day trading, but they can win. When picking stocks and holdings.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 嗯,我认为事情从我进入这个行业以来已经改变了。
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Well I think that things have changed from when I got in the business.
我以前去纽约商业图书馆(New York Commercial Library: 纽约的一个商业图书馆,提供商业信息和研究资源)阅读几个月前的缩微胶片。
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I used to go to the New York Commercial Library and read microfiche.
无法获得任何报告。
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That was a couple months old. Couldn't get any reports.
它不可用。
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It wasn't available.
现在一切都可用了。
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Now everything's available.
我确实推荐,看ChatGPT(由OpenAI开发的大型语言模型),你可以找到Perplexity(一个AI搜索引擎),你可以找到比你更多的信息。
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And I do recommend look ChatGPT you can find out perplexity. You can find out more than you.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 我的意思是,我在五分钟内就看到了。
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I mean, I was watching within five minutes.
他们拥有一切。
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They have everything.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 我只是认为,如果有人想做得对,他们就能做得对。
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And I just think that if someone wants to do it right, they can do it right.
他们有四个仓位远离投机。
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They got four slots away from the speculative.
我认为我展示了如果他们击中一两个,就可以弥补所有的损失。
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I think that I show that 1 or 2, if they hit, can make up for all the losses.
我接受他们会有损失的事实,因为没有人那么好。
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I accept the fact that they're going to have losses because nobody's that good.
但在我做的每一种图表中,指数基金表现都不如。
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But in every kind of every kind of schematic I did, the index fund didn't do as well.
然而我们呢?
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And yet we what?
我们崇敬指数基金,但我们得到一个真正好的。
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We Revere the index fund, but we get one really good one.
你有七个好的。
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You have seven good ones.
而93个坏的,嗯,那就是你,那不是我的风格。
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And for 93 bad, well, that's what you and that's not my style.
Joe Weisenthal: 我有点偏向于这种观点,因为现在大部分的辩论和故事都在网上,所以那个在地下室日内交易的人可能对市场脉搏有很好的把握,甚至可能比一些专业人士更好。
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I am kind of partial to the argument that because so much of the debate and the story is online now that the guy who's like, day trading from his basement probably has a very good, like, finger on the pulse of the market and possibly better than some of the professionals,
Tracy Alloway: 那你更,你更革命性,尽管我。
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Then you're more you're more revolutionary, though I.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Tracy Alloway: 哦,我想你在迷因股或GameStop(一家视频游戏零售商,曾是迷因股热潮的焦点)期间看到了这一点。
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Oh, I think I think you saw it during the, the meme stock or GameStop.
Joe Weisenthal: 完全正确。
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Exactly.
Tracy Alloway: 从一个专业的对冲基金经理,一个真正的对冲基金经理,变成散户日内交易者的代言人,这很奇怪吗?
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Is it weird to go from a professional hedge fund guy, a legit hedge fund guy, to the sort of poster boy for retail day traders?
Jim Cramer: 是的。
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Yes.
但我曾是对冲基金经理。
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But I was a hedge fund manager.
一切都是为了找出现在机器所做的模式,因为那是在机器出现之前。
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Everything was to try to figure out the patterns that now the machines do, because that was pre machine.
现在我有点像个体投资者的代言人,他们完全不是专业人士。
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And now I'm kind of a spokesman for the individual investor who is completely not the professional.
那是因为《疯狂金钱》这个节目已经有20年了。
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And that's because the show Mad Money has been for 20 years.
它是一个晚上6点的节目。
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It is it's a 6:00 show.
发生的事情是,它完全是关于个体投资者试图做什么以及我试图解释什么。
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And what happens, it's all about what the individuals trying to do and what I'm trying to explain.
我今晚会给你们举例。
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Let's I'll give you examples tonight.
Joe Weisenthal: 给我一点预告。
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Give me a little preview.
Jim Cramer: 我会谈论市盈率,以及为什么我不谈论市盈率,因为那是秘密武器。
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I'm going to talk about the multiple and why I won't talk about the multiple because that's the secret sauce.
然而人们不明白。
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And yet people don't understand.
我在书中提到了我的妈妈。
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I'm. And I invoked my mom in the book.
我的妈妈是你遇到过的人。
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My mom is a person who you met.
我们早些时候谈到了英德拉·努伊(Indra Nooyi: 百事公司前首席执行官)。
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We were talking earlier about Indra Nooyi.
我的妈妈是那种会说“百事可乐(Pepsi: 一家饮料和食品公司)现在是140,可口可乐(Coca-Cola: 一家饮料公司)是67。
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My mom is someone who says Pepsi was at 140 right now. Coca Cola is 67.
我必须买可口可乐。
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I've got to buy Coke.
它不应该比百事可乐便宜。”
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It should never be as cheap as Pepsi.
你知道,每个人都这样。
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You know, it's ever everybody's.
百事可乐应该是两倍。
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Pepsi should be double.
我的意思是,可口可乐应该是两倍。
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I mean, Coke should be double.
然后我就会说:“妈妈,不,那是人为的。
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And like I would say mom, no, it that is artifice.
这是一个价格问题,那就是。”
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It's a price thing, which is.
“吉米,听我说。
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Jimi, listen to me.
百事可乐是140,这太荒谬了。
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It's ridiculous that Pepsi is at 140 period.
句号。
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End of story.
她不知道那是一个比率。
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And she didn't know that it was a ratio.
她会在我还在高盛(Goldman Sachs: 一家全球领先的投资银行和金融服务公司)的时候,早上9点半打电话进来,说:“我想买三股Giant Food(一家美国连锁超市)的股票。”
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And she would call in at 930 when I was at Goldman and buy I want to buy three shares of Giant food.
那不是我待在高盛的原因,不是为了做那三股。
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And that was not why I was a Goldman that just not to do the three three.
Joe Weisenthal: 当然。
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Sure.
Jim Cramer: 但我在书中非常清楚地意识到,人们不知道如何阅读财务报表。
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But I am incredibly cognizant in the book that people don't know how to read about you.
所以我实际上冒着风险,用了20页的篇幅来讲解如何阅读资产负债表(Balance Sheet: 公司在特定时间点的资产、负债和股东权益的财务快照)。
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So I actually take the risk of 20 pages about how to read a balance sheet.
我接受了这一点,当我写这本书的时候,我的意思是,他们就像:“嗯,你知道,嘿。”
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I take it now when I when I did the book, I mean, they were like, well, you know, hey.
我说:“不,不,我必须这样做。
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And I said, 'No, no, I got to go there.'
如果我告诉人们要持有单个股票,我必须帮助他们使用ChatGPT,以及如何分析资产负债表,以及如何逐行查看,因为我不想不负责任地说:‘你知道吗?可口可乐在这里表现不错。’”
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If I'm telling people to own individual stocks, I had to help them with ChatGPT and how to analyze balance sheet and how to actually go line by line, because I don't want to be irresponsible and say, 'What you ought to do is say, you know what? Coca-Cola is pretty good here.'
你必须明白为什么。
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You've got to understand why.
那是这本书的重要组成部分。
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And that's a big part of the book.
Joe Weisenthal: 你提到了迷因股。
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You mentioned, meme stocks.
作为一个职业生涯都在倡导个体可以交易这个理念的人。
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You know, as someone who has spent a career advocating this, I for this idea that the individual can trade.
你有没有,比如现在是2025年,你对那个特定的时期有什么看法?
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Did you ever, like now in 2025, like, what do you think about that specific time?
我的意思是,可以说从那时起它已经成倍增长了。
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I mean, arguably it's like multiplied since then.
但我们有没有,你有没有停下来思考过?
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But we have what have you ever do you ever stop and think like,
你有没有想过这已经失控了?
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Do you ever think this has gotten out of hand?
你有没有想过这是一个已经超越了界限的怪物?
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Do you ever think this is a monster that has gone beyond where it's just like,
你有没有对公众参与的程度产生过疑虑?
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Do you ever have misgivings about the degree of public participation?
Jim Cramer: 绝对有。
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Absolutely.
我曾有过一个时刻,我做过一次严重的背部手术,所以我有三天时间处于重度药物影响下。
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I had a moment, where I had had some serious back surgery, so I was out, heavily medicated for three days.
当我开始的时候,这正是在GameStop狂热期间。
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And when I started, this was during GameStop mania.
嗯,当我开始的时候,GameStop大约是100美元。
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Well, GameStop was about 100 when I started, and,
当我基本上清醒过来,停止使用他们现在给你的任何海洛因时。
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I was when I came to basically and stop using the whatever kind of heroin that they give you these days.
那是星期四,GameStop已经翻了两番。
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It was a Thursday and GameStop had quadruple.
我有一个导管。
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I had a cap.
Tracy Alloway: 凯瑟琳(Catherine),你以为你在幻觉吗?
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Catherine, did you think you were hallucinating?
Jim Cramer: 嗯,我当时是的,是的。
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Well, I had yes, yes,
我以为也许你有一个记号笔或者午夜那家伙给了你什么东西。
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I thought that maybe you have a Sharpie or something in the midnight guy slip you something,
但我有凯瑟琳(Catherine),我够不到电视。
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but I had, Catherine, me and I couldn't reach the TV.
这让我发疯了。
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It was driving me crazy.
我最终只是拔掉了导管,那真不是一个好的体验。
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I finally just pulled the catheter out, which is really not a good experience.
你真的。
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You really.
我可以更专业一些。
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I could be more of a pro.
我打电话给卡尔(Carl)和大卫(David),打电话给卡特琳娜·博桑(Carl Quintanilla: CNBC主持人)和大卫·费伯(David Faber: CNBC主持人),说:“这太荒谬了。
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And I called in to Carl and David, called Catena and David Faber and said, 'This is ridiculous.'
每个人都必须卖出。”
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Everybody has to sell.
在那之后,我有了24小时的保镖,因为我毁了那个链式信件。
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After that, it was it was 24 seven bodyguard because I destroyed the chain letter.
嗯,GameStop不应该涨到400美元。
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Well, GameStop shouldn't have been at 400.
我们现在都知道,GameStop仍然在为此奋斗。
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We all know that now is an industry that GameStop is still fighting.
他们通过在价内销售(at the money sale)筹集了大量资金。
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And they've got, you know, they've raised a lot of money by doing that at the money sale.
Tracy Alloway: 她收到了死亡威胁之类的。
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She got death threats and stuff like that.
Jim Cramer: 哦,我有很多我的狗屎。
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Oh, I've had a lot of my shit.
我确信我不应该谈论它。
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I'm sure I'm not supposed to talk about it.
也许结束了。
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Maybe over.
也许我们会谈谈我们俩。
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Maybe we'll talk a little bit about both of us.
我们需要更多地了解如何处理公众。
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We need to learn a little bit more about how to handle public.
但是。
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But.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 嗯,你看,你一直都很直率。
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Well, look, you've always been. You've been straight.
我们知道你无所畏惧。
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And we know that you're fearless.
无所畏惧意味着我们是。
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And fearless means we are.
当你和你的保镖在一起时,你说:“听着,你必须停止感到恐惧。”
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When you're with your guards, you say, 'Listen, you got to stop being feels.'
哦,我开了一家餐馆。
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Oh, I owned a restaurant.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 其中一个保镖说:“看,我们要这样做。
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And one of the guards said, 'Look, here's what we're going to do.'
首先,你永远不会去你自己的餐馆。
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First, you're never going to your own restaurant.
那是我抽烟最多的地方。
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That's the most I smoke.
我拥有,我喜欢去的餐馆。
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I own, the restaurant I like to go into.
那是星期三,他说:“好的,你必须改变日期,你必须去,不,不能在七点之后。”
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It's Wednesday said, 'Okay, you got to vary the day and you got to go, no and no time after or after seven.'
我说:“嗯,它七点才开门。”
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I said, 'Well, it doesn't open till seven.'
我们必须更加警觉,尤其是在今年,我们正在经历的这个可怕的一年。
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We have to be a little more cognizant, especially in this year, this horrible year that we're seeing.
Joe Weisenthal: 乔,你还梦想着拥有一家餐馆吗?
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Joe, do you still dream of owning a restaurant?
你不是谈过要开一家像餐馆一样的吗?
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Didn't you talk about doing this like a diner?
Jim Cramer: 是的。
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Yes.
我有一天。
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My one day.
Joe Weisenthal: 好的。
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Okay.
Jim Cramer: 我得告诉你,如果你能混合酒精。
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I got to tell you, if you can have a mixture of alcohol.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 你知道,你可以赚钱。
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You know, you can make money.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的,是的。
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Yeah, yeah.
Jim Cramer: 我们光靠酒精就赚钱了。
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We made money just on the alcohol.
Joe Weisenthal: 你还在做梅斯卡尔(Mescal: 一种墨西哥烈酒)生意,我们应该做。
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You also on the mescal business, which we should do.
Jim Cramer: 是的,这就是为什么我们不得不转向那个。
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Yeah, that's that's why we had to switch to that.
因为我们看到人们疯狂地购买梅斯卡尔。
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Because we saw the people buying mescal like mad.
所以我们分开了。
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So we split.
我们转型了。
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We pivoted.
Joe Weisenthal: 哇。
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Wow.
你真的?
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You really?
Jim Cramer: 嗯,我当然知道我们做到了,但你并不了解。
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Well, I, of course, you know, we did, but you're not knowledgeable.
特蕾西,我没有和你一起工作。
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Chase, I'm not worked with you.
我听过你的节目,你完全令人愉快和出色。
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I I've listened to you, and you're completely enjoyable and terrific.
我之前告诉乔,这是一个多么酷的节目。
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And this is a show I was telling Joe beforehand. What a cool thing.
我们还没有插播七个广告。
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We haven't taken seven commercials yet.
你意识到一旦这个节目发布,我们可能会有吗?
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Do you realize that we might have once this has been published?
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yes.
Jim Cramer: 是真的,我们确实。
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It's true, we do.
Joe Weisenthal: 我们只是可以交谈,这很好。
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Do we do just get to talk, which is very nice.
等等。
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Wait.
好的。
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Okay.
严肃的问题。
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Serious question.
我们一直都很严肃,对吧?
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We've been serious the whole way, right?
Jim Cramer: 我们没有吗?
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Haven't we?
Joe Weisenthal: 当然。
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Sure.
你提到了信息。
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You touched on the information.
大量的信息似乎拉平了专业人士和散户之间的竞争环境。
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The plethora of information sort of leveling the field for professionals and retail.
本周早些时候,特朗普(Donald Trump: 美国前总统)建议上市公司应该每六个月报告一次,而不是每季度报告一次。
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And then earlier this week, we had Trump suggesting that public companies should report every six months instead of quarterly.
哦,那对散户投资者会有什么影响?
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Oh, what would that do for the retail investor?
而且还有一种趋势,即更多的私人市场,更多的公司不进行首次公开募股(IPO: Initial Public Offering,首次公开募股),可获得的信息更少。
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And there is also this trend towards more private markets, more companies that are not IPO ING less information available.
Jim Cramer: 嗯,这是一个很好的自我反省时刻,因为我经营过一家上市公司。
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Well, this has been a great soul searching moment because having run, a public company,
华尔街和季度申报让我们花费了一大笔钱。
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the street and the quarterly filings cost us a fortune,
我们没有那么多钱。
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we didn't have that much money.
就像我们所有的利润都给了审计师。
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It was like our whole profit was went to the auditors,
他们真是个麻烦,因为我们不知道怎么做。
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and they were real pain in the butt because we didn't know how to do it.
首席财务官(CFO: Chief Financial Officer,首席财务官)在会议上,我们失去了那个人20天。
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And CFO at the huddle, we lose that person for 20 days.
但作为投资者,我想要所有可能的信息。
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But as an investor, I want all the information possible.
所以我有点觉得我提出了市盈率。
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So I kind of feel I proposed the multiple.
我有点觉得,看,你可以给我们两份报告。
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I kind of feel like, look, you can give us two reports,
但你必须给我们一份报告,让我们在非美国证券交易委员会(SEC: Securities and Exchange Commission,美国证券交易委员会)的监管下,明白为什么我们应该为你支付X。
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but you've got to give us a report that would make us in the the non sec, make us understand why we should be paying X for you.
再次,价格以回应,因为那是人们需要做出决策的能力。
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Again, the price to respond because that's that's what people need to be able to make decisions.
这比我想象的要难,因为总统确实和很多首席执行官(CEO: Chief Executive Officer,首席执行官)交谈。
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This was a harder one than I thought because the president, really does speak to a lot of CEOs.
这就是他们谈论的。
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And this is what they talk about.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的,我确信他们会抱怨。
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Yeah, I'm sure they complain about it.
Jim Cramer: 哦,是的。
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Oh, yeah.
因为,看,我讨厌成为一家上市公司的一点是电话会议。
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Because, look, one of the things that I hated about that being a public company is the conference call.
我们要说什么或做什么?
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What are we going to say or do we do?
嗯,你要预测什么?
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Well, what are what are you going to predict?
利润率会上升吗?
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Are the margins going up?
我的意思是,他们,我只是说我们不能给出预测。
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I mean, they and I just said we can't give a forecast.
不。
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No.
如果我们不做预测,他们就不会喜欢我们。
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If we don't do forecasts then they won't like us.
但如果我们做预测,我们就会错过预测。
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And but if we do the forecast we're missing forecasts.
这些讨论真的很愚蠢。
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And these kind of so we discussions they're really silly.
我认为他们,我认为他们很可耻,因为他们应该花很多时间,而且他们非常非常具有误导性。
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And I think that they I think they're a shame because they should take a lot of time and they're very, very misleading.
Joe Weisenthal: 你在你的书中说过一些话。
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You said something in your book.
你看了,你读了这本书,我读了,你是我读到的东西。
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You watched you read the book, I read it, you are something I read.
一个很好的借口是我的妻子,我的妻子说:“我敢打赌你读了它。”
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A good excuse is one reason my wife, my wife said, 'I bet you read it.'
我敢打赌她读了它。
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I bet she read it.
这是我在四月份股市在解放日(Liberation Day)之后暴跌时想到的。
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And this is something I wondered about in April when the stock market plunged after, Liberation Day.
Jim Cramer: 是的,我们回顾了一下。
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Yeah, we were looking back,
Joe Weisenthal: 但你谈到了这样一个事实,即像政客一样,他们大体上不会。
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But you talked about the fact that, like politicians, by and large, they don't.
实际上,特朗普与大多数政客有点不同。
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Actually, Trump is a little different than most politicians,
但他们通常不会以股市为竞选主题。
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but they don't typically run on the stock market.
他们也不会像社会阶层一样,为股东(Shareholder: 持有公司股票的个人或机构)争取代表权。
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And they also like don't run about like the shareholder as a class of society that deserves to be represented.
对吧。
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Right.
正如你在书中提到的,像乔·拜登(Joe Biden: 美国现任总统)就为自己没有多少钱而感到自豪。
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As you mentioned in your book, like, Joe Biden was sort of proud of the fact that he didn't have much money.
你从来没有真正听到过:“那股东阶层呢?”
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You never really hear, 'Well, what about the shareholder class?'
好的,所以一个个体,我很好奇你为什么这么认为,尤其是在现在这么多人对股票感兴趣,它已经成为流行文化的一部分等等。
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Okay, so an individual and I'm curious why you think that, especially now that so many people are into stocks, it's so much part of pop culture, etc..
为什么人们不谈论股东阶层?
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Why don't people talk about the shareholder class?
Jim Cramer: 我昨天在场内看到了克里斯博士,你知道,我以前和他一起走遍全国,谈论股东阶层和所有权。
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I saw Dr. Chris on the floor yesterday and you know, I used to go around the country with him talking about the shareholder class and ownership.
你刚才谈到了所有权。
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You just talked about ownership.
那是在一切都必须交易的理念之前。
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That was kind of pre the idea that everything had to be traded.
当我在高盛时,我们谈论所有权,所有权意味着复利,复利是一个非常无聊的词。
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When I was at Goldman, we talked about ownership and ownership means compounding and company is a very boring word.
但它确实能让你赚到最多的钱。
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But it is what makes you the biggest money.
我认为我们必须鼓励所有权。
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And I think we have to encourage ownership.
现在谈到特朗普总统,我长期担任《学徒》(The Apprentice: 一档由唐纳德·特朗普主持的真人秀节目)的评委,在此之前他曾多次上《疯狂金钱》。
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Now in terms of President Trump, I was a judge on The Apprentice for a very long time, and before that he had been on mad Money multiple times.
他总是说:“看,我不做股票。
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And he always said, 'Look, I don't do stocks.'
给我一些股票,我想持有股票。”
View/Hide Original English
Give me some stocks I want on some stocks.
你知道,那是一个充满危险的局面。
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And, you know, that's that's a totally fraught situation.
你不想给他推荐美国铝业(Alcoa: 一家铝生产公司)。
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You don't want to offer him, you know, Alcoa.
所以我总是说:“听着,公用事业股。”
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So I always just said listen utilities.
他说:“好,好。
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And he said good, good.
这就是我想要的。”
View/Hide Original English
This is what I want.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 因为坦率地说,公用事业股,你知道,你不会因为离合器动力而自毁前程。
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Because utilities frankly you know you're not blowing your head off with a with clutch power.
但他并没有因为不了解股票而自豪。
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But he didn't pride himself in not knowing stocks.
他希望有更多时间学习股票。
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He wish he had more time to learn stocks.
我认为他这次,当我与他交谈时,他不再把股市作为他成功的晴雨表了。
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I think that he this this time around when I spoke to him, he's not really into the stock market as a barometer of his success anymore.
过去,当我作为总统第一次与他交谈时,他认为道琼斯指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average: 衡量美国30家大型上市公司股票表现的指数)——你喜欢它昨天下跌——道琼斯指数决定了,它是伟大的,真的是,如果他没有击败,如果道琼斯指数没有上涨,那么他就不是一个好总统。
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In the old days when I spoke to him as president, first, go around, he thought that the Dow you like it down one yesterday the Dow determined it was the great really was the the if he didn't beat if the Dow didn't go up then he wasn't a good president.
所以它是伟大的决定因素。
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So it was the great determinant.
我总是告诉他:“请不要那样做。
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And I always tell him please don't do that.
这太难了。
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It's too hard.
你并不是真的与它一对一。”
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You're not really one for one with it.
但他喜欢道琼斯指数。
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But he liked the Dow.
Joe Weisenthal: 嗯,他喜欢,是的,他喜欢,就像尼尔森(Nielsen)一样。
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Well he like yes he liked there was like the Nielsen's.
Jim Cramer: 我必须告诉你,做《学徒》是一件相当愉快的事情。
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And I have to tell you the doing the apprentice quite a quite enjoyable event.
Joe Weisenthal: 等等,讲他的故事。
View/Hide Original English
Wait tell his stories.
我想听听幕后八卦。
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I want to hear the behind the scenes gossip.
Jim Cramer: 嗯,我的意思是,会发生什么呢,就是你必须监督任务。
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Well, I mean, what would happen is, is that you had to monitor tasks.
我不会提及他们会有一个任务。
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I'm not going to mention they would have a task.
我不会提及个人姓名,因为我有保密协议。
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I'm not going to mention individual names because I have a nondisclosure.
但我会告诉你,有些人会完成任务,有些人则希望你来完成任务,比如我。
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But I will tell you, there's some people who do the task and some people who want you to do the task like me.
我当时想:“不,我只是个评委。”
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And I was like, 'No, I'm just a judge.'
但我们会经历这一切,我必须揭露那些什么都没做的人,或者那些说自己在做但实际上什么都没做的人。
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But we would go through it and I would have to out the person who did nothing or out the person who said they were doing something.
你知道,也许有两个人正在做,一个人什么也没做,或者没有出现。
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And, you know, maybe two people were doing it and one was doing nothing and or didn't show.
有一些这样的情况,但最终,他们大约一半的时间采纳了我的裁决。
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There were some of those instances, but in the end, they used my, my verdict, I'd say maybe half the time.
我希望他们能更多地采纳,因为我花了很多时间去研究它。
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And I wish they used it more because I spent a huge amount of time looking at it.
但总统有他的看法,他有强烈的看法。
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But the president had a, he had views, he had strong views.
而且它们经常与我的冲突。
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And they did did conflict with mine quite often.
Joe Weisenthal: 这是一个问题。
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Here's a question.
这有点像一个媒体自省的问题,但也是一个严肃的问题。
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It's sort of a media navel gazing question, but also a serious one.
你做这个节目已经20年了,这真是太棒了。
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So you've been doing the show for 20 years, which is phenomenal.
Jim Cramer: 谢谢。
View/Hide Original English
Thank you.
Joe Weisenthal: 我还听说你每天早上3点起床去健身房,然后做节目。
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I heard also that you get up at 3 a.m. every day to go to the gym and then do the show, which.
Jim Cramer: 嗯,3点15分,3点15分,多出来的15分钟。
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Well, 315, 315, the extra 15 minutes.
我总是重复。
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I always put them repetitive.
我总是说我起得最早,这样我就可以打败其他人,但坦率地说,这正在失去它的魅力。
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Guy I always said I get up earliest so that I beat everybody else, but that's losing its charm, frankly.
Joe Weisenthal: 你如何衡量自己的表现?
View/Hide Original English
How do you benchmark your own performance?
Jim Cramer: 我以为你们有一个广泛的基准,因为,你知道,我以前。
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I thought you guys had a wide bench because I, you know, I used to.
我最初是250。
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I was doing 250 initially.
对不起。
View/Hide Original English
I'm sorry.
Joe Weisenthal: 你如何衡量自己的表现,你在选股方面的表现?
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How do I benchmark my own performance, your own performance when it comes to stock picking?
因为坦率地说,20年的内容,多次选股。
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Because frankly, like 20 years of content, multiple stock picks.
我甚至不知道你是如何追踪所有这些的。
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Like, I can't remember the episodes we did two weeks ago.
Jim Cramer: 嗯,好的。
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Well, okay.
我的意思是,我有一个孩子,因为他看,你不能真正地比较他。
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I mean, I have a child because he look at it, you can't really comp him.
如果你卖出,你必须把利润以均等的方式分出去。
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If you sell, you have to give the profits away in the divisions of even way.
但这一切都是相当公开的。
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But it's all pretty public.
但我会根据我无休止地谈论的东西来衡量我。
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But I would gauge me by what I talk about endlessly.
现在这不是人们认为的轶事,20年来,它是经验性的。
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And now this is not a people think that's anecdotal a for 20 years. It's empirical.
如果你每周谈论苹果(Apple: 一家科技公司)32次,而每周谈论纽柯(Nucor: 一家钢铁生产商)一次,并且你对苹果和纽柯的评分相同,那真是荒谬。
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If you talk about Apple 32 times a week and you talk about Nucor one time a week and you're graded equally, Apple and Nucor, that's that's farcical.
我上周五在肯塔基州哈罗德斯堡(Harrodsburg)和蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook: 苹果公司首席执行官)在一起。
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I was with Tim Cook last Friday, in Harrodsburg, Kentucky.
他把我介绍给一个人,那是吉姆·欧文(Jim Owen)。
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And he introduced me to someone is Jim Owen.
“不要交易苹果,克莱默。”
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Don't trade Apple Cramer.
我就是这么觉得的。
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And that's how I feel.
我经历过最好的案例是詹森。
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And the best one I've ever had was Jensen.
当股价是两美元时,我说:“我们不再交易了。
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Jensen wrong. When the stock was two I said we're done trading.
请停止交易。”
View/Hide Original English
Please stop trading.
然后我给我的狗改了名字。
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And then I renamed my dog.
它之前叫珠穆朗玛峰,我把它改名为英伟达。
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He was Everest and I named him Nvidia.
我走遍全国,看到那只狗有多困惑。
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And I go all over the country and I see how confused was the dog.
那只明星狗是个傻瓜。
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The start dog was an idiot.
我大喊“待着别动!”
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I yelled stay! Yeah,
是的,你总是得手里拿着牛排。
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I always had to have steak in your hand.
嗯,我做到了。
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Well, I did it.
我用了一半比特犬,一半谁知道是什么。
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I use a half foot pitbull half who knows what.
但我确实认为,当你看到英伟达百万富翁的数量时。
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But I do think that when you look at the number of Nvidia millionaires.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 那也是经验性的,而不是轶事。
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That also is empirical, not anecdotal.
现在有些人想说:“吉姆,我真的想衡量你昨晚关于蓝能量(Bloom Energy)的说法和你关于苹果的说法。”
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Now there are people who want to say, Jim, I really do want to measure what you said about blue energy last night and versus what you said about Apple.
你知道我怎么说吗?
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You know what I say, knock yourself out.
我的意思是,如果我真的错了,我早就被取消了。
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I mean, if it was really wrong, I would have been canceled.
我的意思是,20年意味着要么我每晚都愚弄了全世界,要么人们喜欢它并且他们学到了东西。
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I mean, I'm like 20 years means either that I've fooled the whole damn world every night, or maybe people like it and they learn.
也许他们学到了。
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Maybe they learn.
Joe Weisenthal: 你提到你3点15分起床。
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You mentioned, you get up at 315.
Jim Cramer: 是的。
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Yeah.
我以前每天早上4点起床,人们仍然认为我这样做。
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I used to get up at 4 a.m. every day, and people still think I do.
所以他们认为我工作狂,认为我会睡很久吗?
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So they think I have this crazy work, think I'm going to sleep again a long time?
Joe Weisenthal: 不,但你,你知道很多。
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No, but but you, you know, a lot.
了解很多唯一的办法就是多读多做。
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And the only way to know a lot is to read a lot and to work a lot.
你能给我们讲讲你的一天吗?
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Can you give us, like, a day like.
好的,你3点15分起床。
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Okay, you wake up at 315.
是的。
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Yeah.
你像疯了一样地阅读和工作。
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Like, you read and work like crazy.
给我们讲讲你的准备工作。
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Give us a little. Yeah. Prep that goes into your eyes.
Jim Cramer: 好的。
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Okay.
这是一个疯狂的。
View/Hide Original English
Here's a wild one.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 我从FTX(一家加密货币交易所,曾发生重大破产事件)开始。
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I start with the F2. Okay.
因为FTX每天都有一个突发新闻。
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Because the FTX is one breaking news story every day.
只有一个。
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Just one.
但它很棒。
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But it's great.
今天就是。
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And today was the you know, what time do you read it?
你什么时候读的?
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Well I mean you're up at 315.
嗯,我的意思是,我早上4点锻炼。
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I do have to I mean I have a 4:00 workout.
好的。
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Okay.
那是一个半小时。
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That's an hour and a half.
所以我前45分钟的日程很紧。
View/Hide Original English
So I have a tight schedule for the first 45.
我查看期货、CNBC.com、彭博社(Bloomberg: 一家全球性的金融信息和新闻公司)、《纽约时报》(New York Times: 美国著名报纸)、《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal: 美国著名商业报纸)。
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I look at the future CNBC, dot com, Bloomberg, a New York Times, Wall street Journal
我在《华尔街日报》上花的时间更多一些,因为我觉得他们对市场动态更了解。
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I spend a little more time on the Wall Street Journal mistake because I feel like that they're a little more in tune with what the market's doing.
然后我开始查看我的电子邮件,电子邮件是一系列PDF文件。
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And then I go and I start looking at my email and the emails. It's a series of PDFs.
Joe Weisenthal: 你一天收到多少封电子邮件?
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How many emails do you get a day?
Jim Cramer: 700封。
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700.
Joe Weisenthal: 哇。
View/Hide Original English
Wow.
Jim Cramer: 我浏览PDF文件。
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I look through the PDF.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 我查看并阅读所有卖方研究报告。
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And I look and read all the cell side research.
我阅读所有我认为相关的东西。
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I read everything I think is relevant.
哦,我正在寻找一些可以说的话。
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Oh, and I'm looking for something to say.
我有一份备忘录,列出了我正在关注的十件事。
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I have a memo that comes out, ten things I'm looking at.
我必须在7点30分把它放进去。
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I have to put that in 730.
所以那是我的最高统治者。
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So that's that's my Overlord.
然后在那之后,我必须做《Squawk on the Street》(Squawk on the Street: CNBC的早间商业新闻节目),然后我重新开始。
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And then after that, I have to do squawk on the street, and then I start again.
我开始写节目。
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I start right writing the show.
我从我妹妹的孩子还在上高中时就开始和他一起制作这个节目了。
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And I've been running the show with my sister's kid since he was in high school.
他现在和我一起工作了20年。
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He's now with me for 20 years.
证实。
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Confirmation.
他是个天才,他来了。
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He's a genius, and he's come in.
那家伙简直就是。
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The guy can just.
他。
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He.
我认为他同时处理两件事,他很了不起。
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I think he is two pieces going all at once and he's remarkable.
我们制作《疯狂金钱》的时候很开心。
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And we have a really good time doing Mad Money.
无论如何。
View/Hide Original English
Anyway.
Joe Weisenthal: 你这个小时是什么时候?
View/Hide Original English
What time is this hour that you're.
Jim Cramer: 哦,这是开始。
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Oh, this is beginning.
这是从10点05分开始的。
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This is beginning at 1005.
Joe Weisenthal: 你什么时候阅读所有的电话会议和财报?
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And when are you reading like all the conference calls and earnings.
因为你真的是其中之一,你知道,电话会议的细节。
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Because you really are one of the things, you know, details of the calls and during the day
Jim Cramer: 白天我花了很多时间。
View/Hide Original English
I spend a huge amount of time.
我的意思是,例如,我现在正处于一个平静的时刻,因为我今天早上唯一读到的就是通用磨坊(General Mills: 一家食品公司)。
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I mean, for instance, I'm in the halcyon moment here because the only thing I read I had read this morning was General Mills.
好的。
View/Hide Original English
Okay.
我会读更多,因为他们谈到了消费者正在受苦。
View/Hide Original English
And I will read more of that because they talked about how the consumer is hurting.
你知道,如果你正在受苦,也许是因为Blue Buffalo(一家宠物食品品牌)实际上上涨了6%。
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And, you know, if you're hurting, maybe because Blue Buffalo actually was plus six.
但如果你看一些自有品牌,它们可能会被仿冒。
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But if you look at some of the brands, proprietary brands, they can be knocked off.
这不像好市多(Costco: 一家会员制仓储式连锁超市)可以仿冒可口可乐。
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It's not like, when Costco could knock off Coca Cola.
他们的东西是,你。
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Their stuff is you.
有更多的可替代性,有更多的弹性。
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There's just more fungible, there's more elastic.
但我,我花,你知道,我每天花几个小时。
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But I, I spend, you know, I'm a couple hours a day on
现在我终于在盘后财报上有所作为了。
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and now I'm finally making an after hours earnings.
Joe Weisenthal: 那么,当苹果公布财报时,你就会开始工作。
View/Hide Original English
So then like Apple reports earnings and then you do the work.
Jim Cramer: 是的,我有一个很棒的婚姻。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah I have a great marriage
我,我首先说出来,因为我每天都录制。
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I, I put that out first because I record every day.
我六点一刻录制完节目。
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I finish the show at quarter six taped red tape.
我回家,吃点东西。
View/Hide Original English
I come home, I have a bite to eat.
我的意思是,我昨晚不得不出去吃饭。
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I mean, I had to go out to dinner last night.
我讨厌它。
View/Hide Original English
I hate it.
然后我对我的妻子说晚安。
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And then I say good night to my wife.
Joe Weisenthal: 等等。
View/Hide Original English
Wait.
你几点睡觉?
View/Hide Original English
What time do you go to bed?
Jim Cramer: 我晚上11点睡觉。
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I go to bed at 11.
她像正常时间一样睡觉。
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She goes to bed at like a normal time.
所以那就是我真正破坏婚姻的时候。
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So that's when I really break the marriage.
那不是计划。
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That's not the plan.
我没有打算那样做。
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I did that previously.
糟糕的策略。
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Bad strategy.
但我只是发现我必须这样做。
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But I just find that I have to do that.
那就像在,当你感到匆忙的时候。
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And that's like during when you have that rush.
现在财报季不再有季节性了,因为覆盖范围感觉会永远持续下去,不是吗?
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Now earnings season no longer has a season because coverage feels like it goes on forever, doesn't it?
它有点永久性。
View/Hide Original English
It's kind of perma.
但当我们有摩根大通(JPMorgan: 一家全球金融服务公司)和富国银行(Wells Fargo: 一家美国跨国金融服务公司)开始的那一周时,那个周末简直是悲惨的。
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But when we have that week where JPMorgan starts and Wells does, that weekend is just miserable.
不幸的是,夏天我园艺,但我的周末都充满了这个。
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Unfortunately, during the summer I garden, but my weekends are just filled with this.
Joe Weisenthal: 我喜欢园艺,我们应该一直谈论它。
View/Hide Original English
I love gardening, we should talk all the time.
你是蔬菜园艺爱好者吗?
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Are you vegetable big gardener?
Jim Cramer: 装饰花卉园艺。
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Decorative flower garden age.
但我也需要一个。
View/Hide Original English
But I need one.
我以前确实有一个菜园,但后来我搬到了一个新地方。
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I used to have a vegetable patch actually, but then I moved to a new place.
我需要重新开始一个。
View/Hide Original English
I need to restart one.
Joe Weisenthal: 你如何选择你的音效?
View/Hide Original English
How do you choose your sound effects?
Jim Cramer: 哦。
View/Hide Original English
Oh.
哦,好的。
View/Hide Original English
Oh, okay.
嘿,我有一个广播节目。
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Hey, I had a radio show.
这个节目。
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This this show.
你知道那个广播节目在哪里吗,如果你是彭博社,世界上最伟大的广播网络。
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And you know where that radio show, if you're Bloomberg greatest radio network in the world.
彭博社。
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Bloomberg.
哦,市长(Mike Bloomberg: 彭博社创始人,纽约市前市长)每天两次运营它,因为他认为它很有教育意义。
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Oh, and the mayor run it ran it twice a day because he thought it was. It was a lot of it was educational.
迈克喜欢广播。
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Mike loves radio.
哦,他真的很喜欢。
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Oh, he really does.
这是我的大,你知道,我想如果我说他是我最大的支持者,那听起来像个笑话。
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Here's my big you know, I think if I say he was my biggest backer, that sounds like a joker.
但他,他喜欢我所做的。
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But he, he loved what I did.
音效让人们兴奋起来。
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And, the sound effects got people going.
那是交通高峰时段,他非常支持。
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And it was drive time, and he was so supportive.
我爱他。
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And I love him.
我的意思是,看,你为什么不离开?
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I mean, look, why don't you leave?
他不像以前那么支持了,但我能说什么呢?
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Is he's not as supportive, but what can I say?
我的意思是,这是彭博社,我们应该尝试在广播中重新引入音效。
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I mean, this is Bloomberg, and we should try to reintroduce sound effects on radio.
他喜欢它。
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He loved it.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的,因为他想让人们听。
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Yeah, because he wanted people to listen.
Jim Cramer: 这就是,你知道,牛市熊市。
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And that's what, you know, bull bears.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 她听起来像是错误的蜂鸣器,但对于他们来说是断头台,他们必须削减数字之类的。
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She sounds imagine incorrect buzzer and but a guillotine for they they had to cut the numbers in that kind of thing.
Joe Weisenthal: 我们只有一个,那就是垄断警报器,它并不完全是那样。
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We only have one which is the monopsony klaxon which isn't exactly that.
我们必须留下它,使用它,或者你只是说我们将让制作人插入我为彭博社工作的垄断警报器。
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We'd have to leave it, use it, or you just say we're going to have producers insert the monopsony klaxon that I work for Bloomberg.
Jim Cramer: 非常自豪,一个自豪的家伙,你知道我的意思吗?
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Very proud, a proud fellow where you know what I mean?
其中之一,有实质内容并能够解释和教育是很棒的。
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One of the it's great to be substantive and great to be able to explain and educate.
没有人说教育对数字不起作用。
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And no one said education doesn't work for the numbers.
Joe Weisenthal: 不。
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No.
你实际上做什么?
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What do you actually do?
你认为自己更像一个教育者而不是一个选股者吗?
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You think of yourself more as an educator versus a stock picker?
Jim Cramer: 是的。
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Yes.
这真的就像,比如说,昨晚的节目。
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This is really like, let's say, last night show.
我试图解释,今天与美联储相关的是,曲线会发生什么变化?
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I tried to explain that what matters today with the fed is will the curve what what will the curve change?
我们会,长期利率会开始上升还是下降?
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Will we will interest rates start going up on the long end or down long end down is the big win.
长期下降是巨大的胜利。
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Long and up is what happened last year.
长期上升是去年发生的事情。
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We we had the stutter step and then we had the December crash when when Powell just said listen we're done.
我们先是停顿了一下,然后是12月的崩盘,当时鲍威尔(Jerome Powell: 美联储主席)只是说:“听着,我们结束了。”
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That's going to be the judge.
那将是评判。
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But I had to use all sorts of analogies because the curve you can't ever mention the curve.
但我必须使用各种类比,因为收益率曲线(Yield Curve: 显示不同到期日债券收益率关系的图表),你永远不能提及曲线。
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Like every Sydney Homer, we can mention the curve.
就像每个悉尼·霍默(Sydney Homer)一样,我们可以提及曲线。
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You can get inside the yield curve by Sydney home prices.
你可以通过悉尼房价进入收益率曲线。
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Read a lot of Homer.
Joe Weisenthal: 读了很多霍默。
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It's five months.
Jim Cramer: 五个月。
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No no no no no no.
不不不不不不。
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Yeah yeah yeah.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的,是的,是的。
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Tracy's read Sydney I have I love that book.
特蕾西读过悉尼,我读过,我喜欢那本书。
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Also most of the binge book about it, but most of it is charts.
Jim Cramer: 还有大部分关于它的狂读书籍,但大部分都是图表。
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That's what people don't understand.
那是人们不明白的。
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It goes by really fast.
它过得很快。
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It's all charts.
全是图表。
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She's a hitter.
Joe Weisenthal: 她是个厉害的人。
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Yeah, yeah.
Jim Cramer: 是的,是的。
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But I listen you kind of, you know, you're a hitter.
但听着,你有点,你知道,你是个厉害的人。
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This shows in this election it's okay to sell like this.
这个节目在这个选举中,这样卖是可以的。
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Yeah.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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No, we are going to use this on sizzle reels of promotion for years to come.
不,我们将在未来几年内将其用于宣传片。
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See these people that I've worked with here.
看看我在这里合作的这些人。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 是的。
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And I will Don, I just and these are the cream of the crop I mean I was it the street everybody who was good.
我将,唐(Don),我只是,这些人都是精英中的精英,我的意思是,我在华尔街的时候,所有优秀的人。
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Oh yeah I, I actually encouraged them to come here because they start, start the street.
哦,是的,我实际上鼓励他们来这里,因为他们开始,开始在华尔街工作。
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And the idea is to move up and you want to go to a place where people can be thoughtful.
想法是向上发展,你想去一个人们可以深思熟虑的地方。
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And look, I'm not saying this to suck up.
看,我不是在奉承。
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I'm saying I work here.
我只是说我在这里工作。
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Yeah.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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And that's what the essence was.
Jim Cramer: 那就是精髓。
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Many, many great street alum have come through.
许多许多优秀的华尔街校友都曾来过。
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Okay.
Joe Weisenthal: 好的。
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I was going to like, say, you know, when we were going over what we wanted to talk about, and I was gonna bring this up, and then you're like, no, don't bring up, we're going to talk about a complete, surprise.
我本来想说,你知道,当我们讨论我们想谈论什么的时候,我本来想提出这个,然后你就像:“不,不要提,我们要谈论一个完全的惊喜。”
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Were you a college age spa assist or Trotsky?
你大学时是斯巴达克斯派(Spartacist: 德国共产主义运动中的左翼革命派别)还是托洛茨基主义者(Trotskyite: 追随列夫·托洛茨基政治思想的人)?
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I like, tell us about you.
我喜欢,告诉我们你的事。
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You mentioned it once, I think, in a video.
你提到过一次,我想,在一个视频里。
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But then the video you also online.
但那个视频你也在网上。
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Well, you've also tweeted about your Uncle Vlad about 100 times, with whom you do bear a passing resemblance.
嗯,你还在推特上提过你的弗拉德叔叔大约100次,你确实和他有点像。
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Give us. What's the real story?
告诉我们。
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What's the real story?
真实的故事是什么?
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I used to be stopped by it as Uncle Vlad all the time.
Jim Cramer: 我以前总是被拦住,被叫做弗拉德叔叔。
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Yeah, no, but, Okay.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的,不,但是,好的。
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Mine was Sparta assist because I believe they were.
Jim Cramer: 我是斯巴达克斯派,因为我相信他们是。
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They were they Trotsky?
他们是托洛茨基主义者吗?
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I'm. Yes, yes.
我是。
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Yes, yes.
工人阶级团结起来永远不会被打败,因为我们是为了。
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The workers united should never be defeated because we're about the.
我们是为了工人拥有生产资料。
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We're about the workers owning the means of production.
所以我们应该拥有公司。
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So therefore we should own the company.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 现在托洛茨基,显然被严重误解了。
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And now Trotsky, obviously gravely misunderstood.
包括冰镐。
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Including the ice pick.
冰镐。
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The ice pick.
Joe Weisenthal: 非常糟糕。
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Very bad.
Jim Cramer: 是的,那是一个非常糟糕的一天,冰镐。
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Yeah, that was a very up and suboptimal day, the ice pick.
但我只是认为那很有道理。
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But I just think that that made a lot of sense.
我当时在哈佛(Harvard: 美国著名大学)的时候就选择了这条路。
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And I went that way when you were at Harvard.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
好的。
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Okay.
Jim Cramer: 我们有相当大的追随者。
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We had pretty, pretty big following.
列宁主义者(Leninist: 追随列宁政治思想的人)不多。
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There were not that many Leninist.
我的意思是,你知道,托洛茨基是个相当不错的作家。
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I mean, you know, Trotsky is pretty good writer.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 列宁写了《怎么办?》(What Is to Be Done?: 弗拉基米尔·列宁撰写的政治小册子),他的第二版《怎么办?》。
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And Lennon was he wrote what is to be done, his version number two, what is to be done.
那是一本好书。
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And that's a good read.
但托洛茨基确实是一个非常深思熟虑的人,也是一个伟大的陆军将军。
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But Trotsky really was very thoughtful guy and also a great army general.
人们忘记了他的火车一定撞上了火车。
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And people forget that his train must have hit the train.
那个火车司机,只有钱火车到亚美尼亚钱火车和盾牌。
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The train man, only the money train to the Armenian money train and shield.
那列火车真的很有用。
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And that train really worked.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的,嗯,我想那次逃犯列车事故是一次好的列车事故。
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Yeah, well, I guess the fugitive train crash was a good train crash.
无论如何,我喜欢这里的联合太平洋(Union Pacific: 一家美国铁路公司)。
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Anyway, I like Union Pacific here.
Jim Cramer: 哦,我喜欢我的转运。
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Oh, I like my transfer.
无缝的,我喜欢无缝的。
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Seamless, I like seamless.
嗯,我就是忍不住。
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Well, I just can't help it.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 我是工人。
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I was a labor.
我是,但我也谈到你曾经做过一次非官方罢工。
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I was, but I also talk about you once did a Wildcat.
我在费城人队(The Phillies: 一支美国职业棒球队)发起了一次非官方罢工,我觉得我们应该得到一些东西。
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I ran a wildcat strike at the Phillies where I felt that we should have stuff.
我们在这里做所有的工作。
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We're doing all the work here.
我跟这些人谈过。
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I talk to these guys.
我们在这里做所有的工作。
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We're doing all the work here.
然而其他人,那些上层人士。
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And yet everyone else, the the overlords.
顺便说一句,我能告诉你吗,当你卖冰淇淋的时候,你必须回扣吗?
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By the way, can I just tell you, you had to do a kickback when you're selling ice cream?
嘿,冰淇淋。
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Hey, ice cream.
那个旧巧克力,你必须把三分之一的钱还给那个人。
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That old chocolate you had to give that one third of your money, went back to the guy.
所以你没有得到草莓冰淇淋,因为你不能卖草莓。
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So you didn't get strawberry ice cream because you can't sell strawberry.
没有人想要草莓。
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Nobody wants strawberry.
那是一个巨大的威胁。
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That was a big threat.
嘿,听着。
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Hey, listen.
闭嘴。
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Shut up.
辞职。
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Quit.
我们要去拿草莓。
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We're going to get strawberry.
但是。
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But.
但我有一个第七级的特许经营权,我付了每个人钱。
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But I had a I had a seventh level concession that I paid everybody.
我付了每个人钱,让他们不要上来第七级。
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I paid everybody not to come up the seventh level.
所以我拥有它。
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So I owned it.
但我们有史蒂夫·卡尔顿(Steve Carlton: 著名棒球投手),很久以前,你可能不知道。
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But we had Steve Carlton and a long time ago probably don't know.
但他,他以前在一个半小时内投完比赛。
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But he, he used to pitch games in an hour and a half.
我总是在七月的时候囤积大量的冰淇淋。
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I was always long, a huge amount of ice cream in July.
那真是太可怕了。
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It was just dreadful.
但是。
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But.
所以我领导了非官方罢工,那非常好。
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So I led the wildcat strike and it was very good.
他们把我叫进去,说:“你被解雇了。”
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They called me in and they said, 'You're fired.'
我说:“嗯,你不能那样做。”
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I said, 'Well, you can't do that.'
“嗯,你今晚不会得到任何冰淇淋。
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Well, you're not going to get any ice cream tonight.
你可以来这里,但你不会得到冰淇淋。”
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You can come all you want to this, but you're not getting ice cream.
就是这样。
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And that was it.
那很糟糕。
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And that was bad.
Joe Weisenthal: 那么你什么时候看到光明了呢?
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So when did you see the light, though, from you?
Jim Cramer: 好的。
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Okay.
实际上,一个非常好的问题。
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Actually, really great question.
光明是在我帮助,我帮助罢工J.P. Stevens(一家纺织公司)的时候。
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The light was when I helped, I helped strike J.P. Stevens
J.P. Stevens是一家很棒的毛巾公司,亚麻公司,J.P. Stevens是一位伟大的普林斯顿大学(Princeton University: 美国常春藤盟校之一)校友。
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and J.P. Stevens was a terrific towel company, linen company, with J.P. Stevens being a great Princeton alum,
我们知道他住在哪里,我们把目标对准了管理层。
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and we knew where he lived, and we targeted the management.
我们以为我们成功了,我们正在碾压他们。
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We thought we had it going and we were crushing it.
我当时是从南方赶来帮忙的。
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And I was like, coming up from the South to help work on it.
然后他们关闭了公司,而不是与我们打交道。
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And then they closed the company rather than deal with us,
他们关闭了它,那时我改变了主意,因为我说:“等等,我刚刚帮助剥夺了数千名工人的生计、医疗保健和晚餐,只是为了给他们更多的钱。”
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they closed it, and I that was when I had a change of heart because I said, 'Wait a second, I just helped take away the livelihood, the the health care, the dinner for thousands of workers by trying to get them more money.'
我真的必须重新思考。
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And I really had to rethink it.
我只是说:“嗯,也许合作关系,更多地关注手头的事情,那就是报道凶杀案。”
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And I just said, 'Well, maybe the partnership thing, more focus on the the matter at hand, which is covering homicide.'
但我真的对我们所做的事情感到非常糟糕。
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But I really felt awful about what we did.
我们关闭了公司。
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We closed the company.
那不是本意。
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That was not the intent.
Joe Weisenthal: 然而,工人有工作和股票上涨之间存在这种张力,对吧?
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There is this tension, though, between, like, workers having jobs and shares actually going up, right.
就像,你有一些公司,提高股价的简单方法是削减成本,这意味着裁员。
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Like, you have companies like the easy way to boost your share prices, to cut costs, which means laying off workers.
你如何调和这一点?
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How do you square that?
Jim Cramer: 嗯,我认为你们做了一篇文章,我想是你,乔,关于你一直在思考亿万富翁,一直在思考这个问题。
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Well, I think that you guys did a piece I think was you, Joe, about how that you've been thinking a lot about the billionaires, thinking a lot about this.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 我认为我调和这一点的方式是,如果我回到里根总统(President Reagan: 美国前总统罗纳德·里根),他厌恶首席执行官们赚了多少钱,以及首席执行官们从未为此付出代价而工人却必须付出代价的差异。
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And I think that the way I square that is, is that if I go back to President Reagan, he was disgusted by how much the CEOs made and the difference in how the CEOs did never had to pay the price in the workers had to pay the prices.
这是你谈论里根和我。
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This was this you talking about Reagan and I.
有趣的是,当我看到伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren: 美国参议员)时,她提醒了我这一点。
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It's funny that Elizabeth Warren reminded me about this when I saw.
我只是认为这是一个悲剧。
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I just think that it's a travesty.
我曾与克林顿总统(President Clinton: 美国前总统比尔·克林顿)会面,讨论一个计划,该计划说:“看,我认为工人如果被解雇,就应该获得股份,因为通常股票在裁员后会上涨。”
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I met with President Clinton over a plan which said, 'Look, I think that workers should get shares if they're laid off because typically a stock goes up after the laid off.'
他所做的就是给了我一罐可口可乐零度可乐,说:“这是世界上最棒的主意。
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And what he did was he gave me a can of Coke. Diet Coke said, 'This is the greatest idea in the world.'
我们要推行它。”
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We're going to run with it.
但什么也没发生。
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And nothing ever happened.
Joe Weisenthal: 总统是克林顿总统,奥克兰。
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The president was a President Clinton, Oakland.
Jim Cramer: 嗯,他们都说哪个总统都无所谓。
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Well, they all said they didn't matter which president.
没有人做过。
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Nobody ever did.
但我说拜登总统很搞笑。
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But I said President Biden was hilarious.
在那列火车上遇到他。
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Meet him on that train.
他说:“老实说,我是百人中最穷的。
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And he said he said, 'Honestly, I am the poorest of the hundred.'
我为什么需要你的信息?”
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Why do I need your information?'
我说:“你根本不需要。”
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I said, 'You don't need it at all.'
我的意思是,我要给他一个负五分。
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I mean, I'm going to take him a minus five.
我确实认为克林顿总统对市场非常了解,他明白裁员是推高股价的引爆点。
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I do think that President Clinton was very smart about the market, understood that laid off workers were the tinder to get a stock higher.
他对市场真的很了解。
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He was really smart about the market.
布什总统(President Bush: 美国前总统乔治·W·布什),二世,没那么聪明。
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President Bush. Number two, not that smart.
Joe Weisenthal: 等等,你会给总统的市场知识排名吗?
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Wait, will you rank, presidential knowledge, Mark?
Jim Cramer: 嗯,首先我会选择安德鲁·约翰逊(Andrew Johnson: 美国第17任总统),因为他进行内幕交易。
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Well, first I would take Andrew Johnson because he was insider trade.
不,我,我不知道。
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No, I, I don't know.
我的意思是,你读过这些关于雅各布(Jacob)的书吗?
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I mean, did you read any these books about Jacob?
Joe Weisenthal: 不。
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No.
Jim Cramer: 以及他做了什么。
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And what he did.
但我认为这不授予。
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But I don't think this grant.
哦,我的天,他发现了那个电话。
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Oh, my God, he found out the call.
你知道他们在金本位制(Gold Standard: 一种货币制度,货币价值与黄金挂钩)下吗?
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You know where they were on the gold standard?
分解。
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Decomp.
来吧。
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Come on.
有很多很多关于总统的故事,我认为他们是无意中帮忙的。
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There were there were many, many stories about about presidents, I think helping by mistake.
所以我必须把这些家伙。
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So I have to give those guys.
Joe Weisenthal: 那么,你对,你知道,特别是在纽约市,这种非常活跃、初生的左翼主义有什么看法?
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So as a, what do you think about, you know, there is this sort of particularly in New York City, this very energetic, nascent leftism, they wouldn't characterize themselves as communists.
我不认为佐兰(Zoran)会到处称自己为托洛茨基。
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I don't think Zoran is going around calling himself a Truscott.
我不认为他是。
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I don't think he is.
Jim Cramer: 不,他不是。
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No he's not.
Joe Weisenthal: 你怎么看?
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What do you make? Yeah.
是的。
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What do you make of this?
我们是否处于一个革命性的时刻?
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Are we in a like are we had a revolutionary moment?
过去革命的条件现在在美国存在吗?
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Are the conditions of past revolutions present here in the United States?
Jim Cramer: 不,它们不存在,因为我们有很好的就业增长。
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No, they're not, because we have great job growth.
革命通常都伴随着饥荒。
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And the revolutions have typically been, preceded by famine.
Joe Weisenthal: 好的,那么,你知道,你对美国民主社会主义者(DSA: Democratic Socialists of America,美国最大的社会主义组织)之类的组织有什么看法?
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Okay, well, then how scary is like, when you, you know, what do you what do you think about, the DSA and so forth, like,
因为我想你说过,你知道,你认为他们是危险的激进分子,还是他们是自由民主党(Liberal Democrat: 英国的一个政党,通常被视为中间偏左)的不同派别?
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because I think you've said, you know, like, do you consider them to be dangerous radicals or are they like a sort of different shade of liberal Democrat,
Jim Cramer: 我认为是自由主义的不同派别。
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I think different shade of liberal.
我的意思是,我记得“占领华尔街”(Occupy Wall Street: 2011年在美国纽约市发起的抗议运动)。
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I mean, I remember, Occupy Wall Street and I you used to go to it every, you know, see what's going on, interview people.
你以前每天都去,你知道,看看发生了什么,采访人们。
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And they were, they didn't know that where they were politically because they were so confused.
他们当时不知道自己的政治立场,因为他们太困惑了。
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And we all in the media kind of felt that they were communists or leftist when a tear down Wall Street, they just I mean, they were just sleeping in a cold and a cold stone and saying, listen, we're unhappy.
我们所有媒体人都觉得他们是共产主义者或左翼分子,当他们拆毁华尔街时,他们只是,我的意思是,他们只是睡在冰冷的石头上,说:“听着,我们不开心。”
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And their ethos was zero.
他们的精神是零。
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I think that the mayoral race, I mean, look, I, I care about defunding police versus police because they care about public safety.
我认为市长竞选,我的意思是,看,我关心的是削减警察经费与警察,因为他们关心公共安全。
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Sure.
Joe Weisenthal: 当然。
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And I saw what happened in San Francisco.
Jim Cramer: 我看到了旧金山发生的事情。
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Zoran has changed.
佐兰变了。
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I mean, he's changed his mind about that or he has.
我的意思是,他改变了主意,或者他已经改变了。
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That's why I don't think that we're going to be San Francisco.
这就是为什么我不认为我们会变成旧金山。
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I also think, by the way, we went to trains on time.
顺便说一句,我还认为,我们准时乘坐火车。
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We went public safety.
我们关注公共安全。
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I don't think that that's a I don't think they're in play.
我不认为那是一个,我不认为他们在参与。
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I just really don't know.
我真的不知道。
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I'm a new Jersey citizen.
我是新泽西州公民。
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I to love the governor of new Jersey.
我也爱新泽西州州长。
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He was my boss at Goldman Sachs.
他曾是我的高盛老板。
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But, I look, I just want everyone to be able to recognize that the town has made a great comeback.
但是,看,我只是希望每个人都能认识到这个城市已经取得了巨大的复苏。
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And there's just so many great places.
而且有很多很棒的地方。
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And I hate to see anything devolve into San Francisco, which is getting better, but was a nightmare to the point where I stopped going.
我讨厌看到任何事情演变成旧金山那样,旧金山正在好转,但曾经是一个噩梦,以至于我停止去那里。
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I used to do four times a year on my show, but it was I saw Guy pull a knife.
我以前每年在我的节目中去四次,但我看到有人拔刀。
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I was in front.
我在前面。
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I was behind him at Walgreens, get all the money.
我在沃格林(Walgreens: 美国大型连锁药店)在他后面,他拿走了所有的钱。
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And then the cops arrested him outside and they released him.
然后警察在外面逮捕了他,然后他们释放了他。
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And I said, 'What are you doing?'
我说:“你在做什么?”
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He said, 'Well, we are you a hunter?'
他说:“嗯,我们你是猎人吗?”
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I said, 'I'm a fisherman.'
我说:“我是渔夫。”
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He said, 'Well, we do the same thing.'
他说:“嗯,我们做同样的事情。”
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We catch and release.
我们捕获然后释放。
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Oh, okay.
Joe Weisenthal: 哦,好的。
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Jim, I got to tell you, we just got a message saying, Mike Bloomberg wants to say hi to you after we record the show.
吉姆,我得告诉你,我们刚收到一条消息说,迈克·布隆伯格(Mike Bloomberg)想在我们录制完节目后向你问好。
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I don't believe that.
Jim Cramer: 我不相信。
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Seriously, I, I, you know, we're going to bring you down.
说真的,我,我,你知道,我们会让你下来的。
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Oh, my God, I want a selfie.
哦,我的天,我想要一张自拍。
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It's never did use you.
它从未用过你。
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I know you left the company.
我知道你离开了公司。
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He wants to see it.
他想看看。
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I left the company, but it was not on.
我离开了公司,但那不是。
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It wasn't my idea.
那不是我的主意。
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I didn't want to leave the company, too.
我也不想离开公司。
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It's very specific.
这很具体。
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But he became mayor.
但他成了市长。
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And. Look, I always worshiped him.
看,我一直崇拜他。
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What can I say?
我能说什么呢?
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And I won't even talk about the myriad charities that he really did.
我甚至不会谈论他真正做的无数慈善事业。
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Fun.
有趣。
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Because that's not why I did it.
因为那不是我做它的原因。
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And I always admire that more than anything.
我总是比任何事情都更欣赏这一点。
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He never wanted anyone to know in New York.
他从不希望纽约的任何人知道。
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It's so, It is.
它是如此,它是。
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It's so, you go into a building and the guy's got his name on it.
它是如此,你走进一栋大楼,那个人把自己的名字写在上面。
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Well, there's no you know, that is not Mayor Bloomberg.
嗯,没有,你知道,那不是布隆伯格市长。
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Mayor Bloomberg was.
布隆伯格市长是。
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I remember giving an award for what we did at the Brooklyn Bridge.
我记得为我们在布鲁克林大桥(Brooklyn Bridge: 纽约市著名地标)所做的事情颁奖。
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I don't know if you guys up in the Brooklyn Bridge Park, but it.
我不知道你们是否在布鲁克林大桥公园,但是它。
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Yeah, yeah, this city's been redone, and a lot of it is that Mr. Mayor?
Joe Weisenthal: 是的,是的,这个城市已经重建了,其中很多都是市长先生的功劳吗?
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He's Mr. mayor.
Jim Cramer: 他是市长先生。
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Back to finance for a second.
市场泡沫与个人投资策略
Jim Cramer: 回到金融领域一秒钟。
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Were you ever tempted to, recommend the inverse Kramer ETF?
你有没有想过推荐反克莱默ETF(Inverse Kramer ETF: 一种旨在与吉姆·克莱默推荐的股票表现相反的交易所交易基金)?
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Okay, so that guy got crushed.
好的,那个人被碾压了。
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Yeah, he did just annihilate.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的,他确实被彻底摧毁了。
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Had you recommended it, they would have had to short themselves, right?
如果你推荐了它,他们就不得不做空自己,对吧?
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Oh my God.
Jim Cramer: 哦,我的天。
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Right.
对。
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What a cool idea.
多么酷的主意。
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Yeah, I didn't want it.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的,我不想。
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You miss one of those things.
Jim Cramer: 你错过了其中一件事。
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This is, you know, you go through and your wife says I don't want you acknowledge him.
这是,你知道,你经历过,你的妻子说:“我不想你承认他。”
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I said, 'Well, that guy's a total joker.'
我说:“嗯,那家伙是个十足的笑话。”
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It's just I don't want you to acknowledge him.
我只是不想你承认他。
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And a lot of times what happens is you do go back to your home and you ask your wife what can do or your partner what, what what's right, because everyone has got an agenda at work.
很多时候,你会回到家里,问你的妻子或伴侣该做什么,什么是对的,因为每个人在工作中都有自己的议程。
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But my my wife's agendas. Me.
但我妻子的议程是。
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Me.
所以我总是知道她就像一个好律师。
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So I always knew that she was just like a good lawyer.
有,你知道,律师-客户特权。
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There's, you know, journey client privilege.
有,配偶特权。
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There's there's what? Spousal privilege.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Tracy Alloway: 那一定感觉很好。
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That must be feel so good.
我正在看行情。
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I'm looking at the ticker now.
他们点击它。
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They click it.
它表现很糟糕。
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It did terrible.
然后他们在2020年2月清算了它。
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And then they liquidated it in February 2020.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Tracy Alloway: 你怎么看?
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How do you look.
你知道,我们没有得到它的一小部分,但我们得到了一点点。
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You know I don't we don't get a fraction of it, but we get a little bit.
你有没有,为了你的心理健康,像公众辱骂或公众。
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Do you ever like for your mental health like public abuse or public.
你有什么建议吗?
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What do you how do you ever like do have any tips?
Jim Cramer: 好的。
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Okay.
当然。
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Sure.
我的意思是,有些人会在苹果笔记中嘲笑我的声音。
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I mean, there were some of those people make fun of my voice in the Apple notes.
CNBC告诉我上乔恩·斯图尔特(Jon Stewart: 美国著名喜剧演员和电视主持人)的节目,我不知道那个节目,我也没有。
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CNBC told me to be on Jon Stewart, and I didn't know the show and I didn't.
Joe Weisenthal: 哦,是的。
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Oh yeah,
Jim Cramer: 我不会,我不知道他会不公平,我也没有解释。
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I would I didn't know he would be unfair and I didn't explain.
他们基本上告诉我他会很友好。
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They were telling me basically that he was it would be convivial.
所以我没有拿出我最好的表现。
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So I didn't come with my A-game.
我拿出了我最差的表现,那真是令人羞辱和可怕。
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I came with my F game, and it was mortifying and terrible.
每次我往外看,我的意思是,我总是认为人们看我的时候就像我一样。
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And every time I looked out, I mean, I always thought people look at me as I was.
现在已经是一代人之后了,对吧?
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Now there's a whole generation later, right?
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 你做了16年了。
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You did 16 years now.
我遇到年轻人,他们从未听说过。
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And I meet younger people and they've never heard of it.
但那些人从未意识到纽约巨人队(New York Giants: 一支美国职业橄榄球队)是一支优秀的橄榄球队,就像,是的,我最重要的建议是说,当他们和你说话时,他们没有想到。
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But those people never realize that the New York Giants were good football team kind of happens like, yeah, my most important tip is to say they're not thinking of it when they talk to you.
换句话说,你在想它,但给自己一个休息。
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In other words, you're thinking of it, but give yourself a break.
他们大多数都不是我,我会说。
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Most of them are not me, I would say.
就像我假设她,她。
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Like I would assume she goes she.
她一直在想乔。
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The whole time she was thinking about Joe.
所以我知道她在说什么,但你知道,你不是读心术者。
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So I know she was saying, but you know, you're not a mind reader.
相信人们的表面价值。
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Take people face value.
他是一个非常刻薄的人。
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He was very mean person.
那是我女儿五年级时用的一个词。
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And that's a word that my daughter used in fifth grade.
但我不知道如何定义一个想要剥夺你生计的人。
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But I don't know how to define someone who wants to take your livelihood away.
他想剥夺我的生计,我不想被剥夺。
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And he wanted my livelihood taken away, and I didn't want it taken away.
剥夺一个人的生命,就像我提到的J.P. Stevens事件一样,是一件可怕的事情。
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And to take away someone's life was, as I mentioned with JP Stevens, is a terrible thing.
所以我和我也不应该。
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So I and I didn't deserve it.
但那是,你知道,就像电影《不可饶恕》(The Unforgiven: 一部由克林特·伊斯特伍德执导的西部电影)一样。
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But that's you know, it's like it's like the movie Unforgiven.
它与。
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It's got nothing to do with.
Joe Weisenthal: 话说金融危机,你在2007年、2008年确实有一些令人难忘的时刻,其中包括对贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns: 一家曾在美国金融危机中倒闭的投资银行)的咆哮。
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Speaking of the financial crisis, though, you did have a series of like, memorable moments, let's just say in 2007, 2008, including the rant about Bear Stearns.
Jim Cramer: 令人难以置信。
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Incredible.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 它是如此。
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It's so.
嗯,是的。
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Well, yeah.
嗯,当实际的,不是会议记录,而是实际的文字记录出来时,《金融时报》(Financial Times: 英国著名商业报纸)有一篇很好的文章,关于他们是如何嘲笑我的。
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Well, the there's a nice article in the Ft about it when the actual not the minutes, but the actual transcript came out about how they laughed at me.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 他们实际上提到了,他们说:“是的,我们嘲笑了他。
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And they actually mentioned they said, 'Yeah, we laughed at him.'
他说:‘哦,克莱默,他真有趣。’”
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He said, 'Oh, Kramer, he's really funny.'
那是关于和很多人说话,他们都在说:“你必须处理这件事。
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It was about speaking to a lot of people who were saying, 'You got to get on the case here.'
你们只是茫然不知。
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You guys are just oblivious.
你们表现得好像这是一个正常的市场。”
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You're acting as if it's a regular market.
我的朋友艾琳·伯内特(Erin Burnett: CNN新闻主播)正在谈论一件正常的事情。
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And my friend Erin Burnett was going on about a regular thing,
我不得不打断。
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and I just had to interrupt.
我说:“看,他们什么都不知道。
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And I said, 'Look, they know nothing.'
他们什么都不知道。”
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They know nothing.
那是关于本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke: 美联储前主席),我认为他在那个时期确实什么都不知道。
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And that was speaking about Ben Bernanke, which who really, I think did no, nothing during that period.
我受到了广泛的谴责。
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And, I was widely castigated.
我第二天不得不上《今日秀》(Today Show: 美国全国广播公司NBC的早间新闻节目),马特·劳尔(Matt Lauer: 美国电视主持人)无论如何都说:“你失控了。
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I had to go on the today show the next day where Matt Lauer, whatever, said you were off. You were off your meds.
你停药了。”
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I want to hear more about this.
Joe Weisenthal: 我想听更多关于这个。
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Now, see, when you say that someone's off their meds, that presumes that you were on your meds.
现在,你看,当你说某人停药了,那意味着你曾经服药。
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And again, I mean, like, look, I am I used to being demeaned.
Jim Cramer: 再说一遍,我的意思是,看,我习惯了被贬低。
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It doesn't bother me.
这不困扰我。
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It doesn't bother me that he used to, but I do say that that rant holds up and, Does.
他以前这样做不困扰我,但我确实说那次咆哮经得起考验,而且确实如此。
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Yeah.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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Oh, and then I did that other thing where I went, if you if you on the today show, if you need your money any time the next five years and the market fell 40% after this, that you should take it out now because I didn't when people it took by the way, took five years to get the market back to it was I was worried about people on a fixed income.
Jim Cramer: 哦,然后我还做了另一件事,我在《今日秀》上说,如果你在未来五年内任何时候需要你的钱,并且市场在此之后下跌了40%,那么你现在就应该把它取出来,因为我没有,当人们,顺便说一句,花了五年时间才让市场恢复到原来的水平,我担心那些靠固定收入生活的人。
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Would you fix them?
你会修复他们吗?
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Me in General Mills and they own Chevron.
我在通用磨坊,他们拥有雪佛龙(Chevron: 一家能源公司)。
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And I just felt like that it was just really the wrong time.
我只是觉得那真的是错误的时机。
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And then the next day, they had me back, and Curry asked me, look, you said this thing, on the show, do you want to take it back?
然后第二天,他们又请我回来,凯蒂·库里克(Katie Couric: 美国电视新闻记者和主持人)问我:“看,你在节目中说了这个,你想收回吗?”
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And I said, 'No, I mean, sometimes when you yell fire in a crowded theater, there's a fire.
我说:“不,我的意思是,有时当你在拥挤的剧院里喊‘着火了’时,确实着火了。
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I want to get out as many people as I can.
我想让尽可能多的人出去。”
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And these were moments that at the time you'll, you'll really appreciate the show.
这些都是当时你会真正欣赏这个节目的时刻。
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When I did these subsequently I was so ridiculed that I, that I would say to myself, why the hell did I ever do it?
当我后来做这些的时候,我受到了如此多的嘲笑,以至于我会对自己说:“我到底为什么要这样做?”
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Yeah.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
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And and, you know, I knew it was right, but no, I had such, angst.
Jim Cramer: 而且,你知道,我知道这是对的,但不,我感到如此焦虑。
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Even though I was right.
即使我是对的。
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I was attacked by so many people.
我受到了很多人的攻击。
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But, yeah, of course it's a dish.
但是,是的,当然这是一道菜。
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Best taste.
最好的味道。
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It's a very.
Joe Weisenthal: 你还要做多久?
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How long you got to do this for?
像3点15分,我再次,我真的不知道,但我感觉我的健康状况是,即使在我总是很早起床的那些年里,他们还记得。
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Like 315, like I don't again, I don't really know, but I like, feel like my health is I have the even the years where I got up super early all the time like they remember used to.
Jim Cramer: 我一直都记得。
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I remember that all the time.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 天啊,我太喜欢了。
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God, I love it so much.
我确实,我的意思是,昨晚我在晚餐时做了一些事情。
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I do and I mean less.
我真的很想回家,因为我想就梦想形成一个论点。
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I was doing something last night at dinner. I really wanted to get home because I wanted to formulate a thesis on dreams.
嗯,就是这样。
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Well, there you go.
但我对这个如此着迷,我发现这个谜题如此困难而又美妙。
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But I am so fixated on this, and I find the puzzle so difficult and fabulous.
英伟达的谜题,这个谜题。
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The Nvidia puzzle, the puzzle.
今天早上,我们讨论了会发生什么。
View/Hide Original English
This morning, we have about what's going to happen.
我必须在美联储会议后立即写下我的最高论点。
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I have to I'll write my top right after the fed.
这是一个如此激动人心的一天,有12个这样的日子。
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And this is such an exciting day at 12 of these.
所以我不知道。
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So I don't know one.
看,这是一个很好的问题,因为我不知道你能做多久。
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Look, it's a great question because I don't know how long you can do it.
我确实想看看世界,我没有休那么多假。
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And I do want to see the world and I don't take as much vacation.
嗯。
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Mmhm.
提供了六周,我休四天,但那是因为我喜欢它。
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Offered six weeks I take four, but I it's because I love it.
那是因为我喜欢它。
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It is because I love it.
这不是一种病。
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It's not a sickness.
它真的不是。
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It really isn't.
Joe Weisenthal: 那么你的研究过程这些年是如何变化的呢?
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So how has your research process changed over the years?
因为你已经在行业里几十年了。
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Because again, you've been in the game for decades.
Jim Cramer: 所以我出去和詹森(Jensen)共进晚餐,他说:“我知道你把所有时间都花在阅读这些报告上。
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So I go out to dinner with Jensen one and he says, 'I know you spend all your time reading these reports.'
我只是敦促你使用ChatGPT的高级功能,获取简洁版本,然后看看你是否想做。”
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I just urge you to ChatGPT the advanced and get the and get the concise version and then see if it's one you want to do.
那改变了我的生活,因为会有十个,然后会有。
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And that has changed my life, because they'll be ten and they'll be.
结果发现Pulte Home(一家房屋建筑商)很重要,不是因为比尔·波伦蒂(Bill Pawlenty: 美国政治家)没有参与。
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It turns out that Pulte home was important not because of Bill Pawlenty's not involved.
史丹利百得(Stanley Black and Decker: 一家工具和安防产品制造商)很重要,百思买(Best Buy: 一家消费电子零售商)也很重要。
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And Stanley Black and Decker was important and Best Buy was that important.
然后我阅读了其他报告的简洁版本,我就可以继续我的生活了。
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And then the others I read the concise version and I could move on with my life.
那对我来说非常棒,因为它让我在真正的财报季期间,可以有15份报告,然后说:“好的,我真的要研究卡特彼勒(Caterpillar: 美国重型设备制造商)和宝洁(Procter: 宝洁公司,一家消费品公司)。”
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And that was a great, great for me because it allowed me during the real earnings season to have 15, reports and just say, 'Okay, I'm really going to do Cat and Procter.'
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah,
Jim Cramer: 我想特蕾西和我发现,ChatGPT在很多方面仍然不够好,但毫无疑问,对于研究过程,无论是寻找正确的文档,还是它,它都非常。
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I think Tracy and I have both found like, there are a lot of things that, charging PD still isn't good for, but there is no question in my mind that for a research process, whether it's finding the right document, whether it's a, it's very.
Joe Weisenthal: 你试过Perplexity Finance(一个专注于金融领域的AI搜索引擎)吗?
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Have you tried perplexity finance?
Jim Cramer: 我今天早上用了Perplexity大约十次。
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I used perplexity maybe ten times this morning.
它更短,更快。
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It is shorter, quicker.
乔治,帮我搜索。
View/Hide Original English
George, search for me on.
Joe Weisenthal: 我觉得它很了不起。
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I think it's impressive.
Jim Cramer: 是的,它非常了不起。
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Yeah, it is very impressive.
我希望苹果能收购它。
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I wanted Apple to buy him.
我一直都在推动这个梦想。
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I was pushing that dream forever.
我的意思是,我上周五和蒂姆·库克谈论过这个。
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I mean, I was talking about that with with Tim Cook on Friday.
我真的认为他们需要一些东西。
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I really think that they need something.
但由于谷歌的判决,法官做出了判决。
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But because of the of the Google decision, the judge made a decision.
可能有人会付钱给他们。
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It's possible someone could pay them.
Joe Weisenthal: 我们在节目中经常谈论中国。
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We talk about China a lot on the show.
他们是,这是那种我。
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Are they, are this the kind of I.
Jim Cramer: 哇。
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Wow.
不,我明白了。
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No, I got this.
Joe Weisenthal: 我为你加油。
View/Hide Original English
I was rooting for you.
Jim Cramer: 我从未听说过。
View/Hide Original English
I never heard that.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的,嗯,第八军团(Eighth Army: 美国陆军的一个野战军,驻扎在韩国)是著名的第八军团。
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Yeah, well, the Eighth Army is the Eighth Army's famously.
你出局了。
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You're out of it.
是的,嗯,这是什么?
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Yeah, well, what is this?
我只看到那个,因为我在读你所有的旧推文。
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I only saw that because I was reading through all your old tweets.
哦,这是什么?
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Oh, what is this?
这种,像,运动?
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The kind of, like, movement?
它与当代中国有什么关系?
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And what does it have to do with contemporary China?
Jim Cramer: 那个获得奖项的人是谁?
View/Hide Original English
What's the guy who won the award for?
为了炼钢铲煤最多的人。
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For shoveling the most coal for steel.
斯大林(Stalin: 苏联领导人)爱他。
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And Stalin loved him.
共产主义者痴迷于钢铁。
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Communist obsessed with steel.
Joe Weisenthal: 是的。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah.
Jim Cramer: 我总是想知道为什么他们总是制定每个计划。
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I always wondered why they always work every plan.
中国的五年计划也是如此。
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The five year for China was was the same.
你知道,他们囤积了大量的钢铁。
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You know, they they're long a lot of steel.
他们,中国直接影响钢铁市场。
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They're, China's direct the steel market presidents.
彼得·纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro: 美国经济学家,曾任特朗普政府贸易顾问)在转运记录上说得对。
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Ted right on the trans shipments by old buddy Peter Navarro's right on the transcripts.
他是我老朋友,这很疯狂,但他可能。
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It's wild that that he's my old buddy, but he's probably,
他进了监狱,不是耶鲁大学(Yale),因为他去了塔夫茨大学(Tufts)。
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And he went to jail bed, not Yale jail because he went to Tufts.
但我确实认为,当你看到中国时,有时我对他们非常严厉。
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But I, I do think that when you look at China, sometimes I'm very harsh about them.
Joe Weisenthal: 好的。
View/Hide Original English
Okay.
Jim Cramer: 但是,我的朋友,那是因为我父亲为圣雷吉斯(Saint Regis)、高潮联合营(Climaxed Union Camp)工作。
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But, my friend, that's because my father worked for Saint Regis and climaxed Union camp.
他为一家造纸公司工作。
View/Hide Original English
He worked for a champion.
他卖礼品包装和瓦楞纸板,每次他在这些公司表现出色时,他们都会关闭它,因为中国人瞄准了礼品包装行业。
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He worked for paper company. He sold gift wrap and corrugated, and every single time he did well at one of these, they closed it in the closing because the Chinese targeted the gift wrapped industry.
如果你去好市多,你所有的都是中国礼品包装。
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If you go to Costco, all you have is Chinese gift wrap.
所以我的父亲在73岁时意识到,就是这样。
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So my father, at the age of 73, realized that's it.
他们把我们消灭了。
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They wiped us out.
他打电话给一家来自中国的公司,那家公司有美国包装,说:“听着,我想为中国人工作。”
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He called a company that does from China who had American wrap and said, 'Listen, I want to work for the Chinese.'
他所做的就是他会画餐馆的标志,并建议他们使用有自己名字的狗袋。
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And what he did was he would sketch logos of restaurants and suggested they use doggy bags that are have their own name.
他有一个抽绳狗袋,中国人以两美元的价格制作。
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And he had a drawstring doggy bag that that the Chinese made for two bucks.
他以,然后他从70岁到92岁度过了他一生中最辉煌的时期。
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He sold it for, and he then had the run of his lifetime from 70 to 92.
他一直工作到去世的那个月。
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He worked until the till the month he died.
他实际上度过了他生命中美好的最后一个月。
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He actually had a good last month.
令人难以置信的是,中国人待他如国王。
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And what's incredible is the Chinese treat him like kings.
他去世时,他们连续三年把收益给了我。
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And when he died, they gave me the proceeds for three straight years.
他们是世界上最好的老板。
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And and they were the best bosses in the world.
他们对你一无所知。
View/Hide Original English
They had no idea of you.
你称中国为世界上最伟大的资本主义国家。
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You call it China, the greatest capitalist nation of all.
Joe Weisenthal: 它是。
View/Hide Original English
It is.
Jim Cramer: 他们只是碾压一切。
View/Hide Original English
They just crush it.
Joe Weisenthal: 伙计。
View/Hide Original English
Guy.
Jim Cramer: 他真的,真的非常接近。
View/Hide Original English
He really, really close.
Joe Weisenthal: 这集的标题会是“吉姆·克莱默谈共产主义”吗?
View/Hide Original English
Is the headline of this episode going to be Jim Cramer on Communism?
Jim Cramer: 不,不,我,这很有趣,因为我确实认为最大的威胁,我的意思是他们在视频中做的事情,当你长大后,我确实希望视频成为平台。
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No, no, I it is very funny because I do think that the biggest threat I mean what they're doing in video when you grow up, I do want a video to be the platform.
但我没去过中国。
View/Hide Original English
But I haven't been to China.
所以,第二,我的儿子达利(Dali)去中国冲浪,他伤了肩膀。
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So, second, Dali, my son went to China for, to, camel surf and he broke his, his, well, he hurt his shoulder
他们打算立即给他做手术。
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and they were going to operate immediately.
我说:“看,我必须和医院负责人谈谈。”
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And I said, 'Look, I got to speak to the head of the horse, but no, no, no, no, my wife foom over for Zhang.'
不,不,不,我的妻子为了张(Zhang)而飞过来。
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I came back.
我回来了。
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But the Chinese are a conundrum for us because they work harder than we do.
但中国人对我们来说是个谜,因为他们比我们工作更努力。
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But we may be.
但我们可能。
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We may have them here.
我们可能在这里拥有他们。
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I know the exports.
我知道出口。
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Really.
出口数字对他们来说真的很好,远离我们。
View/Hide Original English
The export numbers are really good for them away from us.
但我认为我们必须采取一些行动,因为有太多的芬太尼(Fentanyl: 一种强效合成阿片类止痛药)城镇。
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But I think we had to take some action because there's too many fentanyl towns.
我旁边就有一个芬太尼城镇,我可以告诉你,我小时候那是一个很棒的城镇。
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I got a fentanyl town right next to me and I can tell you it was a great town when I was growing up.
现在它是一个我无法相信的城镇。
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And now it's a town where I can't believe it.
我无法相信。
View/Hide Original English
I can't believe it.
但工厂关闭了。
View/Hide Original English
But the mills close.
你知道,工厂,工厂,工厂。
View/Hide Original English
You know, the mills, the mills, the mills.
我的意思是,现在你不能把海盗工厂带回来,乔治·帕克(George Packer: 美国记者和作家)在《大西洋月刊》(The Atlantic: 美国著名杂志)上写了一篇关于它的好文章。
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I mean, now you can't bring back the pirates mill as good pizza by George Packer in the Atlantic about that.
但我知道我们在这里真的跑题了,我不应该跑题。
View/Hide Original English
But I know we're really rambling here, I shouldn't ramble.
Joe Weisenthal: 让我问一个老生常谈的问题。
View/Hide Original English
Let me ask one cliche question.
很多时候,就像这个节目一样,很多关于当前市场估值的话题。
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Lots of times like this show lots of talk about market valuations at the moment.
市场泡沫。
View/Hide Original English
Froth in the market.
我们正在录制这个节目。
View/Hide Original English
We're recording this.
我应该说是在9月17日星期四。
View/Hide Original English
I should have said on Thursday, September 17th.
你看到泡沫了吗?
View/Hide Original English
Do you do you see froth?
你看到泡沫了吗?
View/Hide Original English
Do you see a bubble?
Jim Cramer: 是的,有两个市场。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah, there's two markets.
这也是我写这本书的原因之一。
View/Hide Original English
And that's one of the reasons why I wrote the book.
因为有一个市场,那是一个我嘲笑的抢椅子游戏市场。
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Because there's this market where that is a musical chair market I make fun of.
这是一个Palantir(一家大数据分析公司)市场。
View/Hide Original English
It's a Palantir market.
我接受那些想投机的人可以做Palantir,因为卡普(Alex Karp: Palantir首席执行官),你知道,卡普是最伟大的之一。
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And I accept the fact that those who want to speculate could do Palantir, because Karp is, you know, Karp is one of the greatest.
他的本体论(Ontology: 哲学分支,研究存在和实在的本质)工作令人难以置信。
View/Hide Original English
He just his ontology work is incredible.
它比科学论(Scientology: 一种由L. 罗恩·哈伯德创立的宗教)本体论更好。
View/Hide Original English
It's better than Scientology ontology.
但我希望人们停止。
View/Hide Original English
But I want people to stop.
我可以让它成为你的一个持仓,但不要全部,因为它会被碾压。
View/Hide Original English
I can let it be one of your holdings, but don't do all because it will be crushed.
当它发生时,我确实相信它。
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And when it happened, I do believe it.
当它发生时,你就会失去一切。
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And when it happens, you lose everything.
然后我就会。
View/Hide Original English
And then I would.
我尝试做的任何事情都会是错的。
View/Hide Original English
Anything I tried to do would be wrong.
就像我上大学的时候,他给赛马场打分。
View/Hide Original English
It's like when I was in college, he scored the racetrack.
然后有一个像安迪·拜尔(Andy Buyer: 知名赛马专家)一样的人,他正在教一门课。
View/Hide Original English
And then there was a guy like Andy Buyer who was he was teaching a course.
他说:“听着,如果你要去赛马场投机,至少要知道怎么做。”
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He said, 'Listen, if you're going to go speculate at the racetrack, at least know how to do it.'
我从未忘记这一点。
View/Hide Original English
And I never forgot that.
如果你要投机,我会告诉你怎么做。
View/Hide Original English
And if you're going to speculate, I will show you how to do it.
但我真的想要复利,我想要复利,因为,嗯,我们知道那确实是爱因斯坦(Einstein: 著名物理学家)没有称之为世界第八大奇迹的东西。
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But I really want compounding and I want compounding because, well, we know that that really is Einstein did not call it the eighth wonder of the world,
但我们知道那是一种更好的赚钱方式。
View/Hide Original English
but we know that that is a much better way to make money.
好得多。
View/Hide Original English
Much better.
Joe Weisenthal: 我最后一个问题与此非常密切相关,但其中一个,你为什么戴着纽扣呢?
View/Hide Original English
I have one last question is very closely related to this, but one of them, why are you wearing a button then?
你为什么不戴法式领口呢?
View/Hide Original English
Why aren't you wearing a French collar?
Jim Cramer: 我不知道。
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I don't know.
那是我的。
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That's my.
它是。
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It was.
它没有皱。
View/Hide Original English
It was not wrinkly.
Joe Weisenthal: 好的,你皱了。
View/Hide Original English
All right, you got wrinkly.
Jim Cramer: 是的。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah.
Joe Weisenthal: 我今天要把克莱默请来。
View/Hide Original English
I going to have Kramer on today's.
不,我喜欢你,你不需要按那个,因为它有一些奇怪的。
View/Hide Original English
No, I like that you you don't have to press that because it has some sort of weird to you.
你买了那个吗?
View/Hide Original English
Did you buy that?
告诉我,我在哪里买的?
View/Hide Original English
And tell me, where did I get that?
Jim Cramer: 我买了,你在一家服装店买的。
View/Hide Original English
I got it, you in a clothes So.
Joe Weisenthal: 好的。
View/Hide Original English
All right.
我很确定那是一种侮辱。
View/Hide Original English
I'm pretty sure that was an insult.
Jim Cramer: 是的。
View/Hide Original English
Yeah.
不不不不我,是的。
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No no no no I yeah.
因为我,你知道,我非常。
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Because I, you know, I, I'm very much
如果我进去,我就会说“希恩”(Shein: 一家快时尚电商)。
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I would have said Sheehan if I went in.
所以我给我妻子买了一些内衣,感谢上帝,我们用了,你知道,火柴。
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So I bought my, I bought my wife some lingerie on she and it was thank God we used you know, match light.
不需要在,你知道,最后一个问题上加汽油。
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Don't have to have to put gasoline on the, you know, one last question.
Joe Weisenthal: 我在90年代末对市场产生了兴趣。
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I got interested in the market in the late 90s.
在繁荣或泡沫的任何时刻,对吧。
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At any given moment in a boom or a bubble, right.
有些时刻感觉像是顶部,然后一年后你会觉得:“哦,那什么都不是。
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There are moments that feel like the top, and then a year later you're like, oh, that was nothing.
那只是,哦,你知道,就像几年前,像一些说唱歌手C3.AI(一家AI软件公司)正在蓬勃发展。
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That was just the like, oh, you know, it's like a few a couple of years ago, though, like some rap c3 AI is like booming.
这真是,哦,我的天,那应该很疯狂。
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This is oh my God, that should be crazy.
我认识汤姆(Tom),对吧。
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I knew Tom, right.
诸如此类的事情,或者像:“哦,这个,你知道,这只迷因股上涨了。
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And things like that, or like, oh, this, you know, this meme stock went up.
狗狗币(Dogecoin: 一种加密货币)正在上涨。
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Dogecoin is rallying.
我们一定处于泡沫中。”
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We must be in a bubble.
好的。
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Okay.
所有这些事情在当时都感觉像是顶部。
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All these things feel like a top in the moment.
然后你意识到它们只是通往更大山峰途中的小山丘。
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And then you realize they were just little hills on the way to a much bigger mountain.
Jim Cramer: 所以你必须,有一个简单的解决方案。
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So you've got to there's a simple solution.
你随着时间推移取出你的成本基础(Cost Basis: 投资者为资产支付的原始价格),然后你用庄家的钱玩。
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You take out over time your cost basis, and then you play with the houses money.
然后我就没问题了,因为我是一个“首先不伤害”的人。
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And then I'm okay because I'm a first do no harm guy.
希波克拉底誓言(Hippocratic Oath: 医生在执业时遵守道德标准的誓言)。
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Hippocratic oath.
我可以告诉人们:“听着,如果你想在你的一个仓位上这样做,请随意。
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And I can tell people, 'Listen, if you want to do that for your one slot, be my guest.'
但随着它上涨,你必须取出你的成本。
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But as it goes up, you got to take your cost out.
然后我不在乎它去哪里。
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And then I don't care where it goes.
这太棒了。
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It's fantastic.
但你说得太对了。
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But you are so right.
这就是发生的事情。
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That's what happens.
或者有些人觉得谷歌是令人厌恶的。
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And or some people feel that Google ad invidious.
我的意思是,我在视频上工作了足够长时间,知道人们在2005年、2006年就认为谷歌处于泡沫中。
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I mean, I worked enough on video to know that people were on Google Bubble in 2005, 2006.
嗯,我的意思是,看,我推荐谷歌的时候是88美元。
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Well, I mean, look, I recommended Google at 88.
我被CNBC总法律顾问调查,为什么我使用88。
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And I was investigated by the CNBC General Council for why I used 88.
它太大了。
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It's so it's so big.
我说因为我没有用300。
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And I said because I didn't use 300.
300太低了。
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300 was way low.
Joe Weisenthal: 你不是也早早地退出了互联网泡沫吗?
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Didn't you get out of the dotcom bubble early as well?
Jim Cramer: 我做空了,我100%做空了互联网公司。
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I was short, I went I
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Jim Cramer, Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway, Warren Buffett, Donald Trump, Ben Bernanke, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Tim Cook, Peter Navarro, Stalin, Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin
公司/组织: Robinhood, CNBC, Goldman Sachs, Google, Apple, Palantir, Nvidia, Micron, General Mills, Chevron, Costco, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bloomberg
媒体/书籍: Odd Lots Podcast, How to Make Money in Any Market, What Is to Be Done?, The Unforgiven