市场收盘：加密货币反弹、美联储会议前瞻及重点股票技术分析

All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close.

We are live. I am on time and we've got a lot to talk about, folks.

We got crypto giving us a bounce. We got crypto giving us a bounce. It's very exciting to see.

I will be live tomorrow at 2:20 p.m. Eastern.

We will get a decision at 2 p.m. We will get the FOMC meeting at 2:30.

87.4% chance of us getting that rate cut.

The real story of the day potentially frontr running that rate cut is Bittycoin.

We got to 94 today. We got to 94,627 on the day which was very very exciting to see.

It's been a while since we got back to those levels.

95 uh has not been seen for a month. 94 we saw a little bit earlier a week ago.

Uh weren't able to hold 94, but the fact that we're holding 93 right now is exciting.

BMR was almost up 10% on the day. At one point it was at 3979. right now at 38.88.

S&P is flat, which is kind of weird. You would think S&P actually makes a rebound.

And then Ethereum breaking above 3,300.

Nice to see, but it's not necessarily translating to some of the crypto derivative plays.

Robin Hood was at 139, came all the way back down to 136.

You had Coinbase that got up to, where did Coinbase get to around 290ish, now back down to 277. 284 back to 277.

So, some of these crypto names getting sold off.

BMR holding on to its momentum. Same thing with Micro Strategy given those are more directly correlated with crypto.

Wow, Micro Strategy was actually 198 now back down to 189.

So, it's kind of weird price action today.

Meta's down 2%.

Nvidia couldn't find a way to go green even though you had a bunch of bullish headlines for Nvidia last night based on uh what happened with China.

Nvidia right there down about 6% on the day.

And then the S&P 500 basically flat on the day at 683.

This one also could not necessarily uh make the move higher.

I'm not really sure what to make of this price action.

I do think there's a world in which we might be setting up for a rugpull tomorrow.

Not because I want it to happen, just because I mean the price action is weird.

Usually you get an everything rally and you're not really getting that.

You're getting a crypto rally which you know you would think crypto is the last thing to rally in the context of the broader market if it's pumping on a rate cut.

But maybe the equity market's already trading close to an all-time high and crypto has been sold off more than you know the equity markets and so that could be an argument.

But it is definitely weird to say the least.

Coravee right there that's up 5%.

The day center plays did get a lot of love today.

I uh that's up about 1%. It was up more. Nebius was pushing 100. Now it's back down to 97. That's down 3% on the day.

The Q's are basically flat at 625.

New banks at 1667.

I think there's more than just the upgrade they got from a couple firms to $60, but that's up 12.87% today.

A lot of those Bitcoin mining AI HPC firms ended up getting some momentum.

Bitcoin is now flat for the year. That is correct. Of 0% this year, but at least it's better than being back at that 82,000 level range it was at two weeks ago.

Rocket Lab 5333.

We talked about the Rocket Lab news this morning.

Looks like they are more likely to get to Neutron or Neutron looks like it's the framework for the payloads being able to be carried out by a Neutron launch system seems like it's more likely based on the hippo stuff we were talking about in the morning.

So, I think that is your reason for why Rocket Lab's getting a bit of a bid.

And also, you know, AS got a bid last week along with Rocket Lab. Both those breaking out. ES 73 on the day and the Rock Lab at 53.

Meta right here at 657.

So, I think the real story of the day is confusing price action.

And that price action for why it's not translating to the S&P 500, I also think has to do with um the Fed survey.

So, let's look at that real quick because it's not necessarily the most conclusive on the path to a rate cut, which would mean crypto shouldn't be up as much, but nonetheless, you're getting some mixed data right here.

>> Cut. That is a cut followed by a pause.

And I'll talk more about the pause at the end here.

But it also shows deep divisions over whether the Fed should be cutting at all.

And I think that reflects some of the views on the committee itself.

Uh, take a look here at the Fed spe.

87% think the Fed will cut this week, but only 45% think the Fed should cut.

Uh, two descents are expected and 35% that's the probability of a cut in January in this survey.

Scott Ren of Wells Fargo Investment Institute. He writes in the Fed will cut in December even though you can make a very rational argument that they should not do anything.

continued high inflation is the

>> Okay, we'll go back to that in a second, but I think that kind of paints the picture for why the rate cut probabilities for 2026 are not as strong.

I'm seeing some breaking news right here.

SpaceX considering 2026 IPO at a $ 1.5 trillion valuation.

That's also probably explaining why Rocket Lab's getting a move.

Now, we do have to be careful about this, guys, because did SpaceX actually say this or do we have people speculating?

because until a lot of times Elon Musk companies get misreported

and the weird thing is they got a 800 billion secondary share uh offer last week which I think SpaceX ended up confirming but this seems like a rumor more than anything else.

So I mean bullish but we don't actually know if it's true.

Also, why would they come out and say we want to go public next year after just selling shares at 800 billion?

This has not come from the information. I think this came from Bloomberg.

So, I'll try to get an update on that.

Let's go back to what the Fed survey was saying, but I mean, this definitely can pump Rocket Lab of SpaceX.

Rocket Labs at 30 billion. SpaceX at 1.5 trillion.

You're definitely going to get some people excited about Rocket Lab if they actually do go public in 2026.

The first one, this would be the first trillion dollar IPO since uh Saudi Aramco.

And that would, you know, that was an oil company. This is a much more uh I guess one could argue this is that was a stateowned company that used natural resources. This is like a space company.

So this would be a pretty big deal at 1.5 trillion.

But I think we need some actual confirmation on this versus just the rumors right now.

>> Number one risk to the economy right now.

Uh and that's up from number four in the October survey.

uh the AI bubble bursting as a new addition to our risks here along with concern about Fed independence, the fiscal deficit and uncertainty surrounding administration's economic policy.

Meanwhile, take a look though, the growth outlook has really been ticking up, running at 2% this year and higher next year.

While inflation, that's the problem.

Forecast to remain above the 2% target uh and actually closer to three.

Still, several respondents are saying the Fed needs to cut because of either actual or forecast weakness in the job market.

Alan Sinai of Decision Economics writes in, quote, "The Federal Reserve is behind the curve again, this time on the widespread weakening of the labor market. A preemptive 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate is the right thing to do."

That's what likely motivates this cut at this meeting, the greater risk that when the data finally come out, it's going to show a weaker labor market rather than the risk that it will show higher inflation.

And Scott, I was just doing some math here.

I'm pretty sure this is a change, but I do not have a follow-on cut to December priced into the Fed funds futures market until June now where it's slightly below 50 for uh for April, but then it goes up to 72% for June.

That would make this Powell's last cut tomorrow.

So that means they're pricing in two more cuts going into 2026, which obviously is not the most bullish.

Um, and this would be JPAL's last cut at that point because then the next cut would happen after May of 2026, which is when JPAL would already be uh replaced at that point.

Uh, so I mean, we're going to have to see how this ends up playing out, but I think the the the split on the Fed's survey based on what we just heard is part of the reason the equity markets aren't making that much a move.

Now, why are crypto markets moving?

Honestly, I'm not that sure, but uh you're not necessarily stepping into a dovish cut.

And we all kind of knew it would be a hawkish cut, but it does seem like we were confirming tomorrow was going to be hawkish.

This is what Trump said yesterday or this morning when he was asked about who the next Fed chair is going to have to be.

>> I want to ask about interest rates because a lot of Americans agree with you that they're too high.

You're going to pick a new Fed chair soon.

Is it a litmus test that the new chair lower interest rates immediately?

>> Yes.

Well, this guy too should too, but I think he's a combination of not a smart person and doesn't like Trump.

>> I want to ask about interest.

>> Obviously, you can tell Trump wants someone who's going to cut these rates.

And that is the litmate litmate test for who's going to be the next Fed chair, which really makes me think it's going to be Hasset because who can he confirm is going to cut rates?

I mean, there's not that many people where he can like 1,000% guarantee they're going to cut rates other than Hasset.

So, I mean, you've got a lot of other candidates right there, but I do think Hassid is going to end up getting into the into the front of that race.

S&P going red, hoodie going red, Meta continuing red, a lot of names going red, Bitcoin and Ethereum holding on.

Quite incredible to see them uh holding their momentum.

Gold is at a high of day, 4212, and then silver is at a high of day, 60.79.

Silver up 5% in a day. You don't see that often.

you do not see the commodities, especially silver, have a type of day that it's having today.

But there you go. 4.7% on silver as that one continues uh to make some momentum.

Again, the SpaceX news for those that are just joining, I really wouldn't trust it yet.

I think that that's why Rocket Lab is getting a little bit of a pump most likely.

That candle is Rocket Lab tends to be correlated with a lot of the news around SpaceX.

And didn't Elon come out and say that the $800 billion news wasn't true?

I mean, I think there were some secondary sales at 800 billion, but like this massive massive sale of 800 billion worth of stock or stock that would lead to the company being worth 800 billion. A lot of the numbers ended up coming out to 600 billion.

So, if Bloomberg's confirming the rumor right here, it's probably because Bloomberg uh started the rumor.

So I don't necessarily think that this is definitely true.

SpaceX set to pursue 2026 IPO raising far above 30 billion.

SpaceX sees valuation of about 1.5 trillion in public offer.

I mean this is just broke.

So if Elon comes out anytime soon and says this is false, we'll see.

Um look regardless we know space is SpaceX is going to go public one day.

The question is if it's going to go public next year.

If it is, you can't blame them.

It's a hot market and if it's a hot market then you know that's where you want to take advantage of it.

We had rumors last week of Anthropic also saying that they want to go public pretty soon.

Um well not Anthropic saying it. People who are close to Anthropic saying it

but you know does Anthropic want to deal with being a public company.

So it looks like that's what we have as we get into the close.

Again SpaceX news. We'll see how that plays out.

We got three minutes left until the market closes.

We will have technical Tuesday.

We only have um GameStop earnings today.

Tomorrow's going to be very important with Oracle and Adobe.

And then Thursday, we have Broadcom.

Broadcom continuing to pump today. I think that's an all-time high.

Wow. 1.92 trillion on Broadcom.

Has massively outperformed every other Mac 7, including Nvidia.

I think year to date, it's pushing triple digits.

Uh yeah, 74% year to date.

I mean, this is if they deliver one of those quotas, this is going to be a $2 trillion company.

And it's hard to ma hard to imagine that one not being part of that mag 10.

Broadcom right there. 40593.

ESS down about 1.5%.

Rocketlap still moving.

Nebas not sure why Neb is going down when Core Weave is going up.

Nebas did acquire some land in Missouri today. That was the headline we have for them.

Cory right there 90.82. That's up 5.3%.

Bitcoin still holding 93.

Meta. I still don't know why Meta fell today.

I don't think it's the Google glasses. I don't think it's Meta's new avocado model.

I can't. Maybe it's just people taking profits, but that one was weird to say.

Robin Hood, that one goes rad.

Oscar's up a little bit.

Lemonade's up a little bit.

Micron up 2.29%. Micron very close to alltime high.

And then Netflix right there at 9668.

You did have the Netflix CEO at a conference.

And uh here is what he said this morning around what's going on with HBO Max.

>> We go from 8% view hours today in the United States to 9%.

So we're still behind YouTube at 13%.

And potentially worth noting that we would be behind what would be if Paramount combined with WBD them at 14%.

So we think that there's a really strong fundamentals-based case here for why regulators should approve this deal.

>> I think he is right about that.

However, it goes down to Trump and the political nature of if this is going to actually pay out.

It seems like this deal has completely gone political at this point and we're going to see if that ends up playing out towards the end of the the end of the year or early into next year.

Uh I did buy a stock today, SoFi.

I bought some more SoFi.

I I bought basically at around this price 26.87 26.89.

I saw it below 27 and I was like, "All right, I'm going to buy some more SoFi."

So did buy some more SoFi today.

I don't know what's going on.

I know they diluted the dilution already happened yesterday at 2750 was completed 1.5 billion.

I am hoping Notto has a plan with that money.

I don't think they're just diluting for the sake of diluting.

So I don't know going into a rate cut. I think this one kind of is dumb below 30.

So I added to SoFi today.

That was the only stock I bought today.

But I am confused why it's getting hit as badly as it's getting hit.

Invid right there trying to get to 185.

We got two seconds until the market closes.

All right, that is it for today.

Thank you everybody for being here.

Tuesday, December 9th, 4 p.m.

Stock market is now closed.

All right, we are done for the day as we are closed.

S&P 683 literally flat for the day.

Did not make a move up or down, you know, down about 59 cents. Nothing too crazy.

Coryweave was up 5%.

Broadcom up another 1.29%.

SoFi down another 2.83% closed at 26.83.

Nvidia just closed right under 185 again.

It got to 190 based on that China news.

China came out and said we don't want the H200s. Market got upset about that.

So Nvidia came right back down.

It is up above that 170 level that we saw two weeks ago which is nice to see.

But Nvidia right there at 184.

Also our boy Chris is now long Nvidia. Our boy Chris is now long Nvidia which was nice to see.

So you got Chris who's jumping on the Nvidia train.

Meta right there at 656. That's down 1.4%.

Bitcoin 93. Ethereum 3300.

BMR great day along with Micro Strategy after a lot of crappy days.

BMR right there up 9.3%.

We didn't touch 40. We got really close. Closed at 3918, got to 3979 but did not get to 40.

Amcore right there closed just 10 cents down on the day 4461.

Rock Lab again that SpaceX rumor really helping uh get that green candle at the end of the day.

5343 on the idea that SpaceX potentially is going public at a $ 1.5 trillion valuation.

I think it's possible. I I kind of just think it's a little unlikely, but maybe Elon wants to get this thing public going into 2026.

So, we're going to see if that ends up playing out.

Rivian right there that was up a little bit on the day.

Oaklow was down 64% on the day.

Bloom Energy was down about 2%.

Microsoft up2%.

And then Lily lost a thousand. Wow.

Not sure why Lily got hit today.

Healthcare stocks seems like they didn't get the rotation.

UNH also ended up going flat in the day after being up 2% in the morning.

Broadcom right there 406 still moving after hours

and then the Nebius closed down about 3.9% on the day and that is what we got.

Okay, JP Morgan Chase, let's talk about that real quick.

Couple other headlines then we'll get Jason on for technical Tuesday.

Uh JP Morgan Chase.

So remember two weeks ago I was like being a nerd one night and I was going through JP Morgan's earnings, not because I own the stock, just because I felt like going through their earnings.

And we talked about their credit loss provisions being um better than expected or at least their results not matching their credit loss provisions by 400 million which is a good sign.

That means that they had less delinquent loans.

Well, Jamie Diamond came out at some conference today and he was like, "Yeah, I think uh I think we're going to have really bad loans soon."

And as soon as he said that, the market was just like, "So, you're telling us you think your loans are going to be bad?"

And Jamie Diamond was just like, "Yeah, I think you know, remember he made that cockroach statement?"

He ended up uh continuing to I guess just double down on that statement.

And that's when JP Morgan immediately fell 4% which it's a you know $800 billion company. That thing falling 4% is pretty nasty move.

Let's get an update on the SpaceX news.

But that is why JP Morgan quite frankly that that might be why SoFi got hit as well.

All the banks should be expecting higher credit loss provisions and that could be a reason why SoFi took a hit.

>> Report says they're looking for a 1.5 trillion valuation and seeks to raise more than $30 billion in its IPO.

As far as timing, that's uh between mid to late next year. they're targeting at least according to the report

that piles on Scott reports that we heard in the journal and the information in recent days that they're doing a tender sale that would be a valuation of about $800 billion

and also as our Robert Frank has been reporting uh today all throughout today this is kind of the reason why Tesla did that big pay package for Mus the idea that more of his wealth and perhaps attention could be tied up in his other ventures besides Tesla

so that's why he got that big pay package as well

so we'll see how that turns out

I know our David Fabers chasing this one down as well, Scott.

>> All right, good.

All right, so I'm going to wait till Elon gives us confirmation on that, but as of now, that 1.5 trillion are reports that are not fully confirmed yet.

We do have GameStop earnings.

What do we got on GME?

We are down 3% for GameStop.

Um, they missed revenue by 17%. They beat EPS by 20%.

24 cents versus 20 cents expected. That's a beat.

Um, revenue$821 versus 987. That's a miss.

That's an It's a pretty ugly miss. That's almost uh hundred million miss.

Revenue is down 5% year-over-year.

EPS, which quite frankly is more important to me than revenue, especially for a company of their size, is up 300% year-over-year.

I don't think management does uh Q&A on their calls.

So, we'll see if we can get any more details from their earnings.

Uh, their trading card business has been the thing that's been growing the most,

but GameStop right there down about 2.8%.

They also still have, I think, like 5,000 Bitcoin on the balance sheet, 4,000 Bitcoin, something like that, and about 8 billion in cash.

Not 8 billion, maybe like five billion in cash, but GameStop right there, that's down 3%.

Paler getting a little move after hours.

I don't know if there's any news on Palenter. We'll see in a second.

Um, it is getting a half a percent move.

Bit mine moving a little bit after hours.

And then the S&P 500 right there at 683.

You're also seeing nothing crazy right there.

Uh but that SpaceX news again, that is kind of that core news that got Rocket Lab to move

and we're going to see if it actually has any implication on uh the company actually going public, which again I just think it's kind of early.

I know they've been private for a long time, but I was thinking 2027, 2028 we were going to see that happening, but maybe it is sooner than that.

Um, oh wow, GE Veronova boost their buyback to 10 billion from 6 billion, doubles the dividend to 50 cents. Wow, did not expect to see that.

Uh, look at that. That stock's up 3% after hours.

GE Veronoba up 85% year to date. Oh, that's a massive move.

6 to 10 billion on the buyback and doubling the divvy.

Look at that. That is very very exciting right there.

That stock moving after hours on that piece of news.

Um as GE Veronova continuing to get some momentum.

Let me see if I can get that Jamie Diamond clip on what he said about credit.

So, I think that was the the bigger story for why that one got hit today.

But again, he did say that he simply feels that there is going to be a lot more delinquencies than expected.

And yeah, here it is right here.

And then all the banks, I guess, took a hit once that came out.

Hey, Scott.

Yeah, JP Morgan, CEO of Consumer and Community Banking, Maryanne Lake, providing guidance on expenses that was a bit of a negative surprise to the market, above expectations.

Lake presented right here at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference in New York City, where she said she expects 2026 expenses for the overall company to be $105 billion.

That's more than $4 billion higher than consensus and about 10% higher than what JP Morgan has guided for for 2025.

Lake said the biggest bucket of growth in expense uh in the expenses is quote volume and growth related expenses.

These are things like incentive compensation for advisors or product marketing expense.

She also said the firm's card refresh has created an uptick.

The second biggest driver will be from strategic investments. the firm building out branches, adding bankers, adding advisers, investing in marketing and AI.

And lastly, the smallest bucket driving the uptick in expenses, according to Blake, will stem from the structural consequences of inflation. Those are her words, including real estate costs.

Now, they seem somewhat idiosyncratic, but shares of BFA, Wells Fargo, and City did fall in sympathy today with those comments, Scott.

>> Yeah, and I'm looking at the group.

>> Yeah, there's your explanation for SoFi.

I actually was wondering why SoFi was getting hit.

Uh there's our reason.

If the biggest bank in the world is going to take a nasty little beating, then obviously uh SoFi is going to get hit.

Uh we have one more stock that has earnings before we get into technical Tuesday.

By the way, shout out to Tess in the chat.

It is her birthday today.

So, shout out to Miss Quantess.

Um it is indeed her birthday and you know, she's been part of the channel since I think early 2022.

She's been here for the past three and a half years.

So, shout out to Tess.

Very, very happy for her being part of this community.

And it is indeed her birthday.

Uh, I don't know if she wants me to say how old she's turning.

Sometimes people get a little sensitive about that, but she's older because every year you get a little older on your birthday.

So, there it is.

Tess, love you.

Hopefully you're doing well and hopefully we see you at a meetup soon.

But happy birthday to you as well.

Uh, AVA, that's down 10%.

Well, it was down 10%. Now it's down 5%.

Yeah, she's 27. Exactly.

She's 27. Just 27. You know, she's younger than me. I'm 28. I'm the one getting older.

Um, Avab's down 5%.

I think they missed on earnings.

This is 14 billion company called Aero Environment.

Um, another space name, which by the way, there's another space update that we'll talk about in a second that has to do with data centers in space.

Wow, they missed EPS by 44%.

Holy crap. That is ugly. That is ugly.

Revenue 472 versus 465.

44% miss on EPS.

I don't follow this company that well.

Uh but they did have earnings today and looks like they're down 5% on that.

Now granted that EPS miss could be for a variety of reasons.

So maybe that's not that big of a deal, but the headline number is probably going to get a knee-jerk reaction and obviously that's going to that's going to get hit.

Yeah, Tess is the same age as D-Wave stock.

So where is D-Wave?

Dwave's at D-Wave was basically flattened today. 2830.

There you go.

She's she's 28 to 30. That's her range range. 28 to 30 is what she is today.

For a lot of you guys ended up buying D-Wave because of Tess.

I mean, she was really pounding the table on this thing at a dollar.

And so for those that even less than a dollar, I think she was early early early to these quantum names,

which by the way, they took a hit in November, but a lot of them have started to recover.

They're not at all time highs, but they're not that far away either.

So, a lot of the quantum names continue to maintain their momentum uh even if they're not at those all-time highs.

And I think a lot of you in the chat really started getting into the thesis because of someone like Tess who was talking about it in the chat about a year ago.

Rocklab right there still moving after hours on this SpaceX news.

Pound sharers up a little bit.

BMR flat after hours and then you got the S&P 500 at 683.

The bigger earnings were GameStop and AVA.

GameStop down now 5% on the day.

AVAB recovering. It was down seven. Now it's down 1.5 which is not too bad even after even after that EPS miss.

All right folks, that's what we got with uh earnings.

I'm going to play one quick clip and then we will get into Jason.

Um, data centers in space.

I know a lot of people have been talking about that.

This is Gavin Baker who was recently on a new podcast.

He has been long Nvidia Tesla since like 15 years ago.

He is one of the he's like a Brad Gersonner, but he doesn't get as much coverage as Brad Gersonner does because he's just like not as public as him.

But here is his take on what the next three to four years will be focused on.

And he thinks that it's going to be data centers in space.

I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world in the next three to four years is data centers in space.

>> If you think about it from first principles, data centers should be in space.

What are the fundamental inputs to running a data center?

>> and then there are the chips.

The inputs to making the tokens come out of the magic machines.

So in space you can keep a satellite in the sun 24 hours a day and the sun is 30% more intense and this results in six times more irradiance in outer space than on planet Earth.

So you're getting a lot of solar energy.

Point number two, because you're in the sun 24 hours a day, you don't need a battery.

This is a giant percentage of the cost.

So the lowest cost energy available in our solar system is solar energy in space.

Okay.

Second, for cooling in one of these racks, a majority of the mass and the weight is cooling.

And the cooling in these data centers is incredibly complicated.

You know, I mean, the HVAC, the CDUs, the liquid cooling.

in space, cooling is free.

You just put a radiator on the dark side of the satellite,

>> and it's as close to absolute zero as you can get.

So, all that goes away, and that is a vast amount of cost.

And then let's think about how each satellite is kind of a rack.

Well, how are you going to collect connect those racks?

Well, it's funny.

In the data center, the racks are over a certain distance connected with fiber optics.

And that just means a laser going through a cable.

The only thing faster than a laser going through a fiber optic cable is a laser going through absolute vacuum.

So, if you can link these satellites in space together using lasers, you actually have a faster and more coherent network than in a data center on Earth.

Okay?

For training, that's going to take a long time. It's just because it's so big.

But for inference, let's think about the user experience.

You know, when I asked Gro about you and it gave the nice answer.

Here's what happened.

A radio wave traveled from my cell phone to a cell tower.

Then it hit the base station, went into a fiber optic cable, went to some sort of metro aggregation facility in New York, right within like, you know, 10 blocks of here.

There's a small little metro router that's routed those packets to a big XAI data center somewhere.

Okay.

And then the computation was done and it came back over the same path.

If the satellites can communicate directly with the phone and Starlink has demonstrated direct to cell capability, you just go boom boom.

It's a much better lowerc cost user experience.

So in every way data centers in space from a first principles perspective are superior to data centers on Earth.

I mean, I haven't really dug super deep into this concept, but we're seeing more and more people talk about it.

If it becomes a thing, I mean, you know, maybe that's part of the reason SpaceX wants to go public because they see this massive opportunity to get data centers in space.

They need a lot of money to be able to make that happen.

That's why they need to go public, maybe.

So, we're going to see how this ends up playing out.

But, you have a lot more people getting very excited about the idea.

And if it does happen, then it would be super super bullish.

And yes, all my space mob people, rocket lab people, I mean I I don't see a world in which if we do start building data centers in space, how those two stocks don't benefit from it.

Maybe, you know, SpaceX gets the line share of a lot of the different uh opportunities.

Blue Origin, Amazon, Google are probably going to have their their hands there,

but I think as Rocklab at their valuations probably also get some benefit from this as well.

Uh Arthur, thank you for the super chat.

Send this to Tess for me.

I will make sure that Tess gets this $20.

Thank you for the super chat and uh I'll I'll communicate with Tess.

We'll get her like an Amazon gift card with that 20 bucks.

So, we'll make sure she gets that money as well.

All right, folks.

It is Tuesday, which means it is time to go through the technicals on this Tuesday.

We had a pretty crazy last few days.

We have FOMC coming up.

A lot of things can change in an instant.

Bitcoin and Ethereum finally break out a little bit today.

And as a result, it means that it is once again time to roll the intro.

>> We're back.

>> We made it.

We are back.

Happy birthday, Tess. Happy birthday.

>> I can finally show everybody what I've been teasing since the morning.

>> You've been teasing something since the morning.

>> I've been teasing something since the morning.

This guy said he was going to send me some merch for his paper games brand.

I was like, "Cool, no problem."

Then I get this at my house and I'm like, "What is this?"

I turned it around.

>> Yeah, bro.

That's money, dude.

I like it,

>> dude.

>> Merry Christmas.

Happy birthday.

I love it.

>> This is

>> I actually like it, dude.

These are what we need to use AI for.

>> that is that is uh you know played around with a lot of tools that that uh by far the best that I'd seen, but I think it came out well.

We did you better this time for sure.

Maybe not.

>> You got the Robin Hood liquor.

>> Oh yeah.

Yeah, dude.

That was like like actual work getting the thing to to to look like that.

>> Yeah.

I love this, bro.

Got your logo.

This is awesome.

So,

>> a bromance that moves markets.

>> This will be hung up in the office.

I appreciate it, dude.

>> Let's go.

>> This is awesome. This is so great.

So, there you go.

>> I love it.

Looks good, man.

>> Yeah, it looks great.

>> It looks really great.

I'm excited to hang up a lot of this stuff in the studio.

>> Um, it was supposed to be on top.

Listen, it would look really weird if one was on top.

Oh my gosh.

>> All right, we got a lot to get into, a lot to talk about.

Can we Can we start off I think everyone wants to start off with Ethereum before we get to the S&P because me and

>> Ethereum.

>> Oh, for sure.

I mean, I uh I don't think on my on my Twitter, and I I don't think I po I didn't I definitely didn't post this, but there was a there was a recording from our

>> uh what was it from one of our technical Tuesdays?

>> It's a video

>> and I we clipped it really quick.

I'm trying to scroll as fast as I can.

>> Um by the way, I have your playlist.

I'm going to send it to you.

It's on private right now, so I'm going to send it to you right now and then you can get access to it as well.

>> A playlist for

>> Oh, yeah.

I think I I know what you're talking about.

Anyways, um yeah, so so trying to find this video.

I can't find the video.

Long story short, guys, we're going to 3500.

So, congrats.

Um it I mean, this was the last the last one I did, ETH bearwall breach.

3500 here we come.

So, without getting into videos or wasting a ton of time, um it's it's pretty straightforward.

I'm just going to flip to a you know what we can do?

Let's go ahead flip to a weekly.

I'm going to turn off all of these things.

I'm going to hit play on the timer and I'm just going to make this super clean chart.

So, super clean chart.

By the way, um I'm bummed.

I'm trying to find these uh annotation tools.

I even reached out to uh to a buddy Matt, but I I can't uh I don't have the right tools.

This is an oscillator down here.

This is setting up this is a weekly chart on Ethereum, possibly setting up for a weekly squeeze.

When we first started watching this, you can't see that that yellow down there, but oh well.

When we first started watching this, it was it was like coming into uh 26 here, 26 and a quarter.

And that was outlined pretty explicitly as like the buy zone.

And there were certain levels to get through.

And as we get through them, um, what we're going to be looking at is essentially just connecting, let me see if I even have this right, these highs right in here and and the lows.

So this is the consolidation.

And so off of this level right here, there was a lot of confluence to come off of 26 and a quarter from this this low to this high.

we actually had like like a perfect fib like retracement

and Ethereum as a whole on this chart you can look at it you're like okay well this is actually just basic regular consolidation

and consolidation meaning we're going to we're basically in this in this box right here

but um if we can get out of this flag if you will pennant whatever you want to call it doesn't really matter um then then we can have like another rally but from here.

Literally here to here. What we're talking about is 3500.

Just just slightly over 3500.

So, I'm going to go ahead and turn my my actual drawings on really quick.

So, now that you guys see where a lot of those things have come from,

I don't know what happened to my pointer just now. How it how it started doing these highlighty things.

Um, but yeah, so this was that retracement right here, 26 and a quarter.

um the bare zone from here.

So from this low to this high, this was the buy zone and where the bears were going to step in was about 3166.

And the second that that level right here got breached 3166 right in here. Then I know okay well the bulls this is the power shift like the bulls are winning here and now.

Where does this go?

I think I think it takes us legit to about here right in this blue line which is about 3562

and then and then we kind of have to see.

So from this bounce to here from here to here I think we're pretty easy trade.

Easy as in like uh low risk high reward.

From a percentage perspective that's actually it's actually quite a bit um that's like 35%.

Uh but but if we can get through that, then and only then are we actually talking about like a full-blown breakout.

So I want to kind of taper expectations here now.

uh say this looks really good, but I think we're gonna hit our head honestly around 30 just under 3,600 and we could come back again and and continue this uh consolidation

which by the way before we before we actually break out was actually what I was looking for in the entire from day one.

and this is that inverse B Simpson whatever uh and then finally breaking out to to go back over 4K

and if that's the case then yeah then we can actually get a little bit of an extension at least on this one press

>> do do you think the move today also had to do with uh FOMC tomorrow or why do you think we had a bounce today

>> I'm not sure if it had to do with FOMC or I wasn't paying attention to like what's going on in Japan

I think the yen and Gary trade unwind 2.0 has a lot to a lot of influence in there, but I didn't really watch that very closely.

Um, I I I just I do think, you know, that as we get into FOMC, this this can we can hit our head on a ceiling right now.

So, we're about to go into real resistance.

I think this can actually take us as high as just about 4K um if we go if we do really well.

I don't think that's going to happen tomorrow.

I think tomorrow we can actually see just slightly over 3500.

Then then be cautious.

Um and I don't think I don't think that we should expect this to explode in our faces.

Um not not right away at least.

I think some consolidation and digestion of this pretty big pullback is in order and should be expected.

Um, but this is the general trajectory that we outlined a month ago, maybe maybe less.

Uh, and and exactly where we are and this consolidation.

If we do go sideways here after hitting our head just over 3500, that's actually going to be really healthy.

Keep an eye on this 3166.

If we as long as we can hold 3166 from this point forward the bears are or the bears are losing and that's just a fact.

So 35 3166 I believe roughly uh should act as support when we after we like finish this press to the upside

and if we do get those pullbacks that in in that situation we want to see that act similar to like a meta which we can look at later but we want to see that level which was resistance turn into support and that would be the ultimate bullish sign.

So, I'm dropping in just slightly one more time.

And I'm going to rush through this because again, we're we're almost out of time.

But this is 3166 right here.

That's that's it's a it's a very key level.

And you can see it on the chart.

This is like an explosion line over 3166.

Boom.

Bears have to cover.

They're losing.

They are underwater.

Any any bear that's left in here is like, oh, you greedy bear.

Um so uh so a pullback or even like a press forward and pullback and then creating this kind of consolidation is going to be ideal.

I think eventually that takes us just over to 38s.

>> High 38s, low 4Ks.

>> And you think that could happen by the end of year?

>> Oh, I was uh well yeah I guess be in the next couple weeks.

>> Okay.

It all this could be this could be 43 by end of year.

>> Okay.

Um, we'll get into all the individual stocks, but yeah, let's do S&P and, uh, I'm kind of curious on your thoughts going into FOMC, how you're playing this one.

>> Well, I think at the index level, it's almost like a zero sum game.

And when you look under the covers right now, uh, gez, my my words, sorry, guys.

Um, but when you look when you look under the hood, um, it's it's overall healthy.

So meaning what I'm seeing is I'm still seeing that kind of uh like broadening within within the market.

At the index level, it looks very stale. Um very tired, kind of bored really.

Doesn't look like it's going anywhere just yet.

Um but what I'm not seeing is I'm not seeing a rush to cash.

I do see some bonds, stuff like that, but nothing major here.

So I think that the market is literally just in a holding pattern.

This was if if the bears were if this was the the structure like the trend count.

So high low lower high lower low.

If this was going to be a lower high it 685 was my level.

We actually breached over 685.

And in this case I'm going to say that lower high is gone because we did we did break through it.

albeit for just a little bit, but it's it's enough to actually make me say, "Okay, well, up here, that's something to that's something to look for."

And and now if we do come back, I if I don't know that we're going to we can just go sideways and this is perfectly fine.

Um I think the dips are still buyable ideally around 675, which would be this like that prior non-farm payrolls.

But here's the deal. We have FOMC tomorrow.

We have non-farm payrolls the the Tuesday after that.

And then we have the Bank of Japan interest rate decision um also I think on the 19th.

So we're back to back to back um into a lot of murky waters if you will.

And if there's one thing that the market doesn't like that's uncertainty.

So, because at this moment in time, there's still a handful of hurdles to get through before we can start defining a Santa rally

because I've gotten so many DMs about Santa rally.

This it's it's out of control right now.

So, what I what I will say definitively, yes, Santa exists.

Yes, a Santa rally does exist, but you need to know your statistics about this stuff.

Trading is a game of probabilities and statistics.

And if you want to know about it, the Santa Rally is very explicitly defined as 7 days and it's from December 26th through January 2nd or 3rd.

So in that in that 7-day time period, you have an average of like 1.3%.

Um, which is nothing by the way, which is like nothing because hey, we just we just moved 5%.

But the Santa rally, if you want to look for it, one, you're early or you're late because the runup into it is is started over here.

And and two, it doesn't start until after Christmas.

So between now and then, we could we could see a little chop.

And that's exactly what I'm looking at.

But this is good.

I would like to see a retest, maybe pull back, retest this broken downtrend line, and then be on our merry way.

I I think that's ideal.

The best case scenario kind of dip by to me is going to be around 675 as it stands right now.

But again, tomorrow FOMC, it's about how that day is digested and and primarily non-farm payrolls on the 12th, I think it is.

>> I I think it's 16th.

But it's weird because we're getting those numbers after the rate cut.

>> The rate cut could be bullish or maybe it's like hawkish and slightly doubbish.

But then those numbers

>> y those are important numbers for the future of liquidity.

>> Yeah.

The the whole future like and and where we are.

I think I believe I just saw an update on the Fed watch tool that um you know might be

so we didn't have and I haven't looked at this today so this is my first time looking at this.

We did not have anything.

So 87.4% is fine whatever.

Um, but we didn't have anything priced in.

Yeah, we still don't.

>> yeah.

>> Until April.

>> Well, which means this would be JPAL's technically his last cut if we don't get that April cut.

>> Is this his last meeting altogether?

>> No. No.

He has four more meetings.

The the June meeting he's not April will be his last meeting.

But if we don't get a cut for the next three meetings in 2026, then this this will be his last cut tomorrow.

>> Yeah.

And so even this April thing, that's what is that?

That's 38% probability of another 25 basis point cut.

It's not really even I mean it's between that and what is that 44?

It's not even fully priced in 44.1% for April.

So this meeting tomorrow is not about whether or not we cut, right?

So what's true when you look at this stuff is that at 87 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut

guys what this means when you look at this stuff this means that a rate cut is currently priced into the market right this moment.

So the rate cut itself is going to do nothing.

That is all baked into the prices of the market today and has been since you know 80 plus percent.

What it does come down to is the rhetoric and the commentary.

dovish cut, hawkish cut, that kind of stuff.

We're not getting 50 base points.

I don't know where the hell that came from.

I don't know if you saw that.

That's some shenanigans, fake news.

But but um you know, it is about is it about commentary?

>> Yeah.

And we Oh, we also get a dot plot tomorrow.

So that's going to be

>> Yeah, that's and that's these dot plot FOMCs do tend to be more market moving than than not.

>> Yeah.

Okay.

Um, Nvidia, how are you seeing price action on this bad boy?

>> I'm long.

Um, you know, I I had to I had to remind myself last night that the aftermarket has nothing for me but lies and deceit.

But but there was again um you know and pre-market hold true.

But but what is what is true still and I I posted my little clip.

Did you like my video?

I still think that this ends up getting filled in up to 195.

And every time we've made this track up, even though it's getting hit by bears being sold off pretty pretty much immediately, the lows are actually becoming higher and higher and higher.

>> you know who's long you know who's long in video now?

>> Uh

>> our boy.

>> You're already long. I mean

>> who wasn't long? I don't know.

>> Chris Patel.

He's long invidia now.

>> Chris Patel is long Nvidia now.

>> I don't know what that means, but

>> I mean bullish.

He's not bearish anymore on Nvidia.

>> I didn't know he was bearish. But um

>> bearish. He just just wasn't the most excited, but now he's he's officially in. He put some money into the name. Let's just say that.

>> Yeah.

So this is higher this is nothing but a series of higher lows.

So this is constructive.

Um, technically speaking, I mean, you could call this I you could call this whatever you want to call this, like a rising wedge, whatever.

Usually the first press, quite frankly, is not always the one to go long.

Anyways, what we want to see is some some trajectory up here.

But look, this even if I pull this back, is is fairly constructive.

So making this trek inside of like this, however it gets here back to that is 200s um I think is is very much in the cards.

I I I would caution that it's uh it's probably a slower grind than not until these bears get off our backs.

But you know this is this is roughly that first level of resistance.

Had it gone any higher, all the Bears would have been in a lot of trouble.

But this is setting up, like Chris said, he said coiled Viper.

This is setting up into a squeeze.

Um, and I think that's that's an accurate statement, right?

Cuz there have been a lot of shorts up here.

Um, maybe down here.

Hopefully the a lot of the crew got this this little nibble here in the 170s, uh, low one high 160s.

Um, but we'll see right right here right now.

We're actually today the low of today.

Let me just take this off.

And if you just look at this one candle, this yellow line, this orange line, um that's a big deal.

So that was that was this resistance area all over here.

Support like support here, resistance again.

So this is the what we call the SR flip where where resistance can turn to support and today's pullback and hold above 184.

That's bullish.

So we can still see some what we call inside days or congestion while we let the the bears get back on the right side of the train here and they actually go long.

That's by the way that's what's happening in Ethereum.

The bears are having they had a chance to cover their shorts and go long.

And that's I think what we're seeing the process in the process of seeing on Nvidia and we start to see some kind of candles like this.

So maybe not one day um but the slow grind something similar uh similar to this kind of scenario over here and ultimately fill in this this other

um I would say like the inefficiency in the market.

The question about this is when I first saw this when we did it last week, my comments were actually that it would be headline driven because as it is, it's got a lot of resistance and it needed that catalyst to get going.

I mean, I think that's just that's such a big deal.

And you had said after my comment there um was that it's going to depend on the catalyst like how strong is this catalyst?

because yes, I see this this this quick push that could take you to 95.

My gut on on a look like this would say that it doesn't immediately go through or hold per se, but it's it's very much going to come down to the level of catalyst and how big of a deal this is.

And I think part of what we're seeing in the chart right now is like, yeah, okay, H200s are being able to they're they're now able to be sold, but we have to find out if China's going to buy them.

And so that that might be what we're talking about.

What's what how how strong is this catalyst?

>> Okay.

Um hoodie.

>> Um look at this.

We're right back. We're right back, dude.

Like holy camole.

>> Um

>> it's pretty incredible.

>> Yeah.

I mean, what a what an amazing stock.

Did you I I didn't see Vlatt's uh Vlad's AMA, but I guess apparently he had one.

>> Um yeah.

Uh I I saw Roy asked him one.

I mean, so like if you got really in the weeds and I just like tagged these two little wicks.

I This could take you to one mid 140s is legit what I'm thinking here.

Anyways, uh without doing that, there's a session 145

I I'm just saying I think we get there.

Um and as long as as long as this holds every day it looks really good and sometimes you get a little pullback.

It's like these pullbacks are getting shallower and shallower and shallower right now and the dip is getting bought like quickly every morning.

Maybe not pressing like all the way through, but it's holding.

And again, series of higher lows here.

We're we still at risk.

Still have to be cautious, but um the longer that we can hold this, especially through FOMC and non-farm payrolls and as the as the tides kind of shift in the market, anything over 135 is really good.

Um and the longer that we can hold over 135, the better.

So, while I mean I would be I would love to see a breakthrough right away.

I think that this yellow this white line here on the bottom that's the prevailing downtrend for me

or sorry uptrend that we were kind of tracking we're back over it but we're right back into that consolidation area.

So even these little pullbacks I think a few more days of sideways action then we can get that then I want to see another higher low and then we're we're back to old hoodie.

Uh, and I'm still looking like near 200s.

You know what?

I don't even know why I have that cuz like if if Hoodie gets over 175, we know what's happening to the stock, right?

>> Yeah, 100%.

>> The chat knows what's happening to the stock.

If hoodie gets over 175, it's game over.

I mean, then we're in the 230s.

>> I just think we can't get to that level unless the market is really on our side.

like we're talking about S&P 73 7400.

>> No, I agree.

Yeah.

So, that that that's the thing.

Um so, what what I'm saying here is like look, we made a big track.

I think we can go sideways for probably a few more weeks and then let's see how this goes

cuz over 145, you know, the market is going to be going to all-time highs.

And that's going to be over 685 anyways.

And as long as we're holding 685 on SPY, which we're not right this second, we're 683.

I mean, we're really close, but if we start trending over 685, there is no question in my mind that we're seeing 700 on SPY by end of year.

Zero question.

Period.

End of story.

That's just what's happening.

And from here moving forward, the only question in my mind because it's kind of like a foregone conclusion anyways, um, is where's the next dip by?

And maybe that comes in the next couple weeks.

No, that is fair.

>> Not trying to be uber uber bullish, but just that's that's what the chart would tend to uh to say.

>> Well, here's the thing. If we if the last time we saw 100 was S&P 650 in like the the end of November, I mean, maybe if S&P even stabilizes here, we don't see 100 again, which

>> or

>> that's kind of what I'm saying.

Like at this point like 128 I'm like I've all my stupid low buys are just kind of like wasted cash right now cuz that's not happening but that's lame.

Um

>> so I'll take those down.

>> I bought some stuff today.

I mean there's there's still some good deals out there.

Uh I really like Rocket Lab right now.

That thing that thing looks great.

I feel like I should have bought a lot more on that 38 dipper.

um with some good catalyst coming.

Uh but again, non-farm payrolls, FOMC, BOJ rate decision, which by the way, BOJ is raising the rates.

It's kind of a foregone conclusion also.

And the end of QT, right?

Um all of that.

It's it's how how does the market digest this?

So, I'm not in a massive rush right now.

If if something's in uh you know, on sale, cool.

But it might be that we get those Christmas Day door busters.

Who knows?

>> Can we do Netflix?

And I'm just curious your your thoughts on what's been going on and if the TA is exciting at all for you.

>> TA is not exciting.

Uh I sold my Netflix stock personally.

Personal decision.

It could have gone higher.

Um the the only the the only reason why I did it.

It's not a big deal.

I don't see a massive pullback on Netflix.

Here's what I see in the charts and what both the technicals and fundamentals are telling me on Netflix.

Um, and that is that it it was in a decent spot.

It could have done some good if had it held that 120 level like 120 and change.

But the second it lost that like one or it was right here 116 it broke down, popped back up.

And this is before all of all of the shenanigans that we're talking about with WBD, but over here like that that moment in time that was a breakdown.

Um, and from a trend perspective, it's it's not good.

What I will say that this chart I think is in reality showing is that um you know again the market hates uncertainty

and I in a time like right now for Netflix what we're looking at in the chart is is just just exactly that. It's just uncertainty.

Can it bounce around?

Is it going to be a falling knife?

No, I don't think it's going to be a falling knife.

I think it can bounce around.

Um, I don't think you have to run out and sell this thing, but I do think that you, you know, that the question of how how is Netflix going to grow as a company is on the table.

And now that they're looking to acquire, I think it's just it just becomes obvious that, you know, maybe internally they might be a little saturated.

And so as an investor, this is not a trading thing, but as an investor, what what I'm what I what I hear and what I see as a trader in the charts is that you have a decision to make as the investor.

Netflix is going to go into a um investment period as a company.

They're going into an investment period.

They need to 400 something billion dollar company.

They need to look at ways to become a trillion dollar company.

How are they going to do that?

And if the if the if the decision that they make is to deploy capital via acquisition, fine.

Either way, as an investor, you have to look at this and say, I now have a decision to make.

Do I take this journey with Netflix during an investment phase of this is just a new chapter of growth, right?

Netflix is is in a investment phase because they have to figure out how how as a company are we going to get to that 750 billion mark?

How are we going to get to that trillion dollar mark?

And and that answer isn't clearly defined yet.

Even if they get WBD, does that get them to the next hurdle?

I I don't know.

And so that's that's kind of what I'm seeing on the charts is a little bit of trepidation.

Um I do think that you can pull back.

you could probably pull back into like the the mid70s.

At a certain point, probably way down in the future.

Does that happen today?

No, I don't think so.

Um and and for right now, you know, it is in a pullback mode.

You're probably going to see those mid80s um which is what I what I initially had.

And um until this can get back over 100 comfortably, uh then then the trend is down.

And so that that that's what it is on Netflix.

It's it's not a horrible thing.

If you're if you're a long-term investor, there's there's opportunities here, but your time horizon to me has to be appropriate.

Meaning that if you're going to be buying Netflix anytime in the next 3 to 6 months, you probably really need to have a 3 to 5 year time horizon.

If you don't have a 3 to 5 year time horizon on Netflix purchasing here, you're just looking for some quick intraday moves.

But the story has to has to unfold how does Netflix get to the next phase of growth in their their chapter as a company.

So the question becomes, you know, do you want to take that journey?

Amazon goes through the every large company goes through these investment phases.

It's just part of this market. It's just how it works.

and and stocks go sideways to down for long periods of time and eventually they get out of it.

uh like Amazon I mean this Google right I mean this is this is over here this is like '9s this Amazon

this is a massive investment phase

oops wrong tool

but um by the way like this whole thing from here to here dude that's two years of nowhere right going really nowhere on Amazon and then finally the fruits of their labor show up and then and then you go into another investor phase, right?

How how are we going to continue to grow another two years of sideways action, more or less?

>> I agree with you.

And and the the other reason I'm not that excited for Netflix right now is that they still trade at a 45 PE.

Like they're still, you know, the streets been happy giving them the premium, but they're basically implicitly admitting over this process that they can't grow.

>> I mean, for them to be this aggressive means that

>> growth is stalling.

And so if they don't get this deal done, I don't know if it's the most bullish, but if they do get the deal done, they have to sp they have to pay a lot of money, which also might not be the most bullish in the short term,

>> right?

And then after they pay a lot of money, they have to spend a lot of time and effort making it all work.

And then after all that said and done, then maybe the fruits of their labor start to show up.

But if that is that even enough.

And so again, this just comes down to you as an investor making a very simple decision.

Do I take this journey with Netflix while they go through their personal investment phase?

Every company has these.

It's just a normal thing, right?

And it's just a question of do do you do you do you stay with it because it will probably pay in the long run, but your time horizon has to be appropriate.

>> Agreed.

Um Tesla

>> Tesla.

Um I actually still think she's kind of stuck.

Uh but she's stuck much better.

Um this so 415 has held well.

This uptrend from here has held um every time some of these charts I swear we are at 451

which is kind of like the top of this box and we're we're getting ready to print the uh the almighty head and shoulders of of the bears uh laughable patterns.

Sorry, I I laugh at these patterns, but that's what is that's what's happening on this chart.

So, right now, you're you're you're printing what we call like a head and shoulders um setup, but in reality, to me, what this is is just it's just very basic consolidation.

Um it's actually extremely strong consolidation.

If if somehow Tesla gets over 460 though, I'm going to have to change my tune real quick on this bad boy because while you can see like a a little bit of a head and shoulders here, at 460 you're like this.

And uh if that happens, okay, Tessie is not going to stop and she's probably not going to wait for me and she's just going to explode and she's going to make that trek to 600s sooner than I thought.

I hope it doesn't happen right away because I'm not positioned for it.

Um, but if it if it happens, it'll happen.

And it's going to be over this like when you you basically tag this October 2nd high and November 3rd high and you get this um basically this consolidation area in here, right?

This is this is your your your consolidation.

So here now, even dips as low as 408, dude, these become viable, even stronger.

Um that I think would set up for even better um like catalyst to get out of here.

But um but right now, this is not where I want to press a long bet.

This is the definition of going long into resistance.

And the bears are the bears are strong here.

Uh actually this is today is today and maybe tomorrow even if it gets to like 455.

There's a little bit of an imbalance in this uh what we call like a session gap.

It's not a big one. Really teeny tiny.

Um so I think this could go higher.

454 right here.

Um but I'm not ready to say hey this is this is just going to explode.

Although it's in consolidation and it's it's been here at 450 for a while.

Uh, and I think as it makes its trek through this area, I mean, it's it's it's it's not looking bad right now.

It's looking a lot stronger than I thought it was going to look, that's for sure.

>> So, I mean, 500 by end of year is not seeming that likely for you.

>> Like that would require S&P 7000 probably or higher.

>> No.

Um Tesla actually doesn't trade with anything.

I I mean it used to track the cues along many many years ago, but it really doesn't um anymore.

It it just does its own thing.

Um Tesla is uh Tesla does Tesla trades almost like the opposite intraday uh as a lot of other um companies.

But this it it's going to be very much if this then that.

I think it's viable on heavy pullbacks.

On heavy pullbacks, big nasty red days as close to 415 as you can.

I know that feels like a long ways away.

Um, but that is was and remains to be the the buy level.

Um, and yeah, you you should the last the last entry I had was over here 390s.

And for me, all I'm looking at here is like, all right, I've come a lot longer, a lot further than I thought I would.

And and that's all good, but I don't want to add just yet.

Not until I'm over this hump, right?

And so, if I can see this from Tesla, boom, right here, right?